Continuous postgame learning

daily_20260930 · dates 20260930 · generated 2026-10-01T09:00:14.780706+00:00

3-1

Winner picks · 75.0%

Comparable starters · 0 identity mismatches

8/8

Starter ER within ±1

4/8

Starter workload within ±1 inning

Slate coverage

Every calendar day in the requested window is listed. Pending means the prediction exists but the official final result has not settled; Missing review artifact identifies a data gap instead of hiding the day.

Date	Games	Settled	Pending	Hits	Misses	Calibration traces	Review status	Pipeline versions
20260930	4	4	0	3	1	4	Available	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Prioritized optimization roadmap

Runtime evidence for the six recommendations. “Observed games” counts artifacts generated with the relevant trace; older artifacts remain honestly blank.

Priority	Change	Status	Observed games	Evidence
P1	Empirical Confidence Blend	Implemented And Applied	4	applied games: 4formula: w_emp=min(0.5,sample_size/200); final=(1-w_emp)raw+w_empempirical_hit_rate
P1	H2H Base Feature	Implemented And Monitored	4	available games: 4
P2	Score Distribution Widening	Implemented Above 1.4X	4	variance multipliers: [2.25]
P2	Simulation Flip Control	Diagnostic Only Without Independent Support	4	simulation flip candidates: 0published flips: 0
P3	Recent Form Quality Blend	Implemented Last 10	4	configured window: 10last 10 games: 4observed windows: [10]
P3	Continuous Calibration Audit	Implemented	4	settled games: 4metric: bucket_calibration_error

Confidence calibration by bucket

bucket_calibration_error = average published confidence − observed hit rate. Positive means overconfident; negative means underconfident. Weighted absolute error: 0.2317.

Bucket	Games	Average confidence	Observed hit rate	Calibration error	Direction
0.50-0.55	4	51.8%	75.0%	-23.2%	underconfident

Where the score pipeline gained or lost quality

Direct comparison against official final runs. Positive deltas mean the stage was worse than historical_ml; this is score error, not a synthetic one-game ERA.

Stage	Games	Team-run MAE	Total-run MAE	Margin MAE	Winner accuracy	Δ team MAE vs base	Δ margin MAE vs base
historical_ml	4	1.7834	1.8527	3.1126	75.0%	0.0	0.0
variance_applied	4	1.875	1.75	3.25	50.0%	0.0916	0.1374
enhanced_prediction	4	1.875	2.25	3.25	75.0%	0.0916	0.1374
embedded_savant_run_environment	4	1.875	2.25	3.25	75.0%	0.0916	0.1374
fundamental_edge_target_review	4	1.875	2.25	3.25	75.0%	0.0916	0.1374
capped_target	4	1.875	2.25	3.25	75.0%	0.0916	0.1374
simulation_result	4	1.875	2.25	3.25	75.0%	0.0916	0.1374
published_final	4	1.875	2.25	3.25	75.0%	0.0916	0.1374

Largest measured regression

{
  "stage": "variance_applied",
  "games": 4,
  "team_run_mae": 1.875,
  "total_run_mae": 1.75,
  "margin_mae": 3.25,
  "winner_hits": 2,
  "winner_accuracy": 0.5,
  "team_run_mae_delta_vs_historical_ml": 0.0916,
  "margin_mae_delta_vs_historical_ml": 0.1374
}

Automatic questions

Which recorded score stage reinforced losing picks?

partial_attribution sample=1

Largest positive recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. Positive, negative, net, absolute, and unchanged movements are shown separately so opposite games cannot cancel into a misleading zero. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution.

Stage	Positive Toward Pick Run Delta	Net Toward Pick Run Delta	Absolute Run Movement	Games Recorded	Games Supporting Pick	Games Unchanged	Meaning
enhanced_prediction	1.0	1.0	1.0	1	1	0	reinforced final pick
variance_applied	0.2434	0.2434	0.2434	1	1	0	reinforced final pick
embedded_savant_run_environment	0.0	0.0	0.0	1	0	1	recorded but did not change score margin
fundamental_edge_target_review	0.0	0.0	0.0	1	0	1	recorded but did not change score margin
capped_target	0.0	0.0	0.0	1	0	1	recorded but did not change score margin
simulation_result	0.0	0.0	0.0	1	0	1	recorded but did not change score margin

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "partial_attribution",
  "sample_size": 1,
  "top_stage": "enhanced_prediction",
  "ranking": [
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 1.0,
      "games_recorded": 1,
      "games_supporting_pick": 1,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 0,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.2434,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.2434,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.2434,
      "games_recorded": 1,
      "games_supporting_pick": 1,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 0,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 1,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 1,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 1,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 1,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 1,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 1,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 1,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 1,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    }
  ],
  "interpretation": "Largest positive recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. Positive, negative, net, absolute, and unchanged movements are shown separately so opposite games cannot cancel into a misleading zero. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution."
}

Which recorded score stage reinforced winning picks?

partial_attribution sample=3

Stage	Positive Toward Pick Run Delta	Negative Away From Pick Run Delta	Net Toward Pick Run Delta	Absolute Run Movement	Games Recorded	Games Supporting Pick	Games Opposing Pick	Games Unchanged	Meaning
enhanced_prediction	2.0	-1.0	1.0	3.0	3	1	1	1	reinforced final pick
variance_applied	0.4813	-0.7875	-0.3062	1.2688	3	2	1	0	reinforced final pick
embedded_savant_run_environment	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	3	0	0	3	recorded but did not change score margin
fundamental_edge_target_review	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	3	0	0	3	recorded but did not change score margin
capped_target	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	3	0	0	3	recorded but did not change score margin
simulation_result	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	3	0	0	3	recorded but did not change score margin

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "partial_attribution",
  "sample_size": 3,
  "top_stage": "enhanced_prediction",
  "ranking": [
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 2.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -1.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 3.0,
      "games_recorded": 3,
      "games_supporting_pick": 1,
      "games_opposing_pick": 1,
      "games_unchanged": 1,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.4813,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -0.7875,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": -0.3062,
      "absolute_run_movement": 1.2688,
      "games_recorded": 3,
      "games_supporting_pick": 2,
      "games_opposing_pick": 1,
      "games_unchanged": 0,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 3,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 3,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 3,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 3,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 3,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 3,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 3,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 3,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    }
  ],
  "interpretation": "Largest positive recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. Positive, negative, net, absolute, and unchanged movements are shown separately so opposite games cannot cancel into a misleading zero. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution."
}

Are Overs performing worse than Unders?

not_measurable sample=0

The current artifacts contain predicted totals but no total line, Over/Under selection, price, or settled total bet.

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "The current artifacts contain predicted totals but no total line, Over/Under selection, price, or settled total bet.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "total_line",
    "total_selection",
    "odds",
    "settled_result"
  ]
}

Are hitter props outperforming pitcher props?

not_measurable sample=0

Player stat projections are not stored as priced, selected, and settled prop predictions.

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "Player stat projections are not stored as priced, selected, and settled prop predictions.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "prop_family",
    "prop_line",
    "selection",
    "odds",
    "settled_result"
  ]
}

Which sportsbooks produce better opportunities?

not_measurable sample=0

No settled prediction was linked to a sportsbook snapshot.

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "No settled prediction was linked to a sportsbook snapshot.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "sportsbook",
    "selection_odds",
    "settled_profit"
  ],
  "books": []
}

Which confidence ranges underperform?

insufficient_sample sample=4

Range	Sample Size	Hits	Misses	Accuracy
[0.000, 0.525)	3	2	1	0.6667
[0.525, 0.550)	1	1	0	1.0
[0.550, 0.600)	0	0	0
[0.600, 1.010)	0	0	0

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 4,
  "minimum_recommended_sample": 20,
  "worst_observed_range": {
    "range": "[0.000, 0.525)",
    "sample_size": 3,
    "hits": 2,
    "misses": 1,
    "accuracy": 0.6667
  },
  "ranges": [
    {
      "range": "[0.000, 0.525)",
      "sample_size": 3,
      "hits": 2,
      "misses": 1,
      "accuracy": 0.6667
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.525, 0.550)",
      "sample_size": 1,
      "hits": 1,
      "misses": 0,
      "accuracy": 1.0
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.550, 0.600)",
      "sample_size": 0,
      "hits": 0,
      "misses": 0,
      "accuracy": null
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.600, 1.010)",
      "sample_size": 0,
      "hits": 0,
      "misses": 0,
      "accuracy": null
    }
  ]
}

Which monitored features are drifting?

insufficient_sample sample=4

Three slates are descriptive only and cannot establish statistical feature drift.

Date	Sample Size	Mean Confidence	Mean Predicted Total	Accuracy
20260930	4	0.5183	8.5	0.75

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 4,
  "minimum_baseline_sample": 30,
  "minimum_recent_sample": 20,
  "reason": "Three slates are descriptive only and cannot establish statistical feature drift.",
  "daily_monitors": [
    {
      "date": "20260930",
      "sample_size": 4,
      "mean_confidence": 0.5183,
      "mean_predicted_total": 8.5,
      "accuracy": 0.75
    }
  ],
  "features_monitored": [
    "confidence",
    "predicted_total",
    "winner_accuracy"
  ]
}

Which model version introduced errors?

insufficient_sample sample=4

Version error claims require at least 30 settled predictions per version.

Pipeline Version	Model Schema Version	Policy Version	Sample Size	Hits	Misses	Accuracy
enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	historical_game_temporal_v11	model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3	4	3	1	0.75

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 4,
  "minimum_sample_per_version": 30,
  "versions": [
    {
      "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "sample_size": 4,
      "hits": 3,
      "misses": 1,
      "accuracy": 0.75
    }
  ],
  "reason": "Version error claims require at least 30 settled predictions per version."
}

Game processing context

How each game moved from the historical model through confidence calibration, H2H and recent-form signals, score distribution and simulation policy. Postgame learning is added only after the official result settles.

20260930_BOS@NYY

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickNYY

Published scoreBOS 3 - 4 NYY

Final confidence54.0%

Calibrationraw 46.0% → blended 51.0%

Empirical signalhit rate 56.1% · weight 50.0% · n=403

H2H base featurehome net 16.0 · absolute 16.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.3398

Simulation variance2.25

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.8289448372172217-5.68424985651052	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-6	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	3-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	3-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	3-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	3-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	3-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYY",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": 0.08,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.54,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.54,
    "away_win_probability": 0.46
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.08,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYY wins 4-3",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "BOS 3 - 4 NYY",
    "confidence": 0.54,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.4601,
    "sample_size": 403,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5608,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.51045,
    "published_confidence": 0.54,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 16.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 16.0,
    "home_average_margin": 3.2,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0923,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0923,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 15.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 7.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -6.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.4366,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.16,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.3398
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03065281984794564
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.029476179229875103
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.029058715983651007
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.027943266713242994
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02765248353910017
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.09250250412863065,
      "1": 0.1334160590446711,
      "2": 0.16456308616204227,
      "3": 0.1735906926026969,
      "4": 0.1565994187010754,
      "5": 0.12081574949287402,
      "6": 0.07971254155017439,
      "7": 0.04497792929882791,
      "8": 0.021704108690770964,
      "9": 0.008956826278405286,
      "10": 0.0031610840498310757
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.09654318751914773,
      "1": 0.13884725501108944,
      "2": 0.1698027629703527,
      "3": 0.1765810101242111,
      "4": 0.15614749837995817,
      "5": 0.11741345144778333,
      "6": 0.07507450340987268,
      "7": 0.04081867202977053,
      "8": 0.018871962489918733,
      "9": 0.007419370306509241,
      "10": 0.0024803263113864073
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.25,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "BOS 3 - 4 NYY",
      "winner": "NYY"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "BOS 3 - 4 NYY",
      "winner": "NYY"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0537,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.23,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "NYY",
      "model_winner": "NYY",
      "simulation_winner": "NYY",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "NYY",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "NYY",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
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      "simulation_score": {
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        "most_likely": [
          {
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          {
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            "away_runs": 2,
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          {
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          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 3,
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        ],
        "home_distribution": {
          "0": 0.09136225988495357,
          "1": 0.13403534638467526,
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          "3": 0.17654474726726135,
          "4": 0.15850309706995838,
          "5": 0.12081778035631875,
          "6": 0.07818691920638339,
          "7": 0.04295834064197984,
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          "9": 0.007936056203825722,
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        "away_distribution": {
          "0": 0.09545108752207358,
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          "3": 0.17955588057391406,
          "4": 0.1578725155737433,
          "5": 0.11714679586469924,
          "6": 0.07336202138199081,
          "7": 0.03877297750007805,
          "8": 0.0172943405431513,
          "9": 0.006510222759429993,
          "10": 0.0020682578479743943
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.8289448372172217,
      "home_runs": 5.68424985651052,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260930_CHC@SD

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickSD

Published scoreCHC 4 - 5 SD

Final confidence51.5%

Calibrationraw 53.9% → blended 55.0%

Empirical signalhit rate 56.1% · weight 50.0% · n=811

H2H base featurehome net -29.0 · absolute 29.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.2355

Simulation variance2.25

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.8806154972392624-4.543986556647879	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "SD",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.03049,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.515245,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.515245,
    "away_win_probability": 0.484755
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.03049,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "SD wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "CHC 4 - 5 SD",
    "confidence": 0.5152454725000001,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.538882,
    "sample_size": 811,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.561,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.549941,
    "published_confidence": 0.515245,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -29.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 29.0,
    "home_average_margin": -5.8,
    "home_run_delta": -0.1673,
    "away_run_delta": 0.1673,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -20.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -5.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.6358,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.508,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.2355
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.021100676535647546
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02033424987658989
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      {
        "home_runs": 3,
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      {
        "home_runs": 5,
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        "probability": 0.019752135345300695
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      {
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        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.01948978370477639
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    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.060446866490935364,
      "1": 0.08907585420526569,
      "2": 0.1171869001932523,
      "3": 0.13763567105359828,
      "4": 0.1443164409818944,
      "5": 0.13509319807877898,
      "6": 0.11289742150695818,
      "7": 0.08423012216642811,
      "8": 0.05610269261390618,
      "9": 0.03336052277858291,
      "10": 0.017709848957529715,
      "11": 0.008393241786550515,
      "12": 0.0035512191863194043
    },
    "away_distribution": {
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      "3": 0.14090043891216095,
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      "5": 0.13504894918536367,
      "6": 0.11103100329387691,
      "7": 0.08125306168760116,
      "8": 0.05292704172094123,
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      "10": 0.015837281588268047,
      "11": 0.007275213971479352,
      "12": 0.0029747694905326856
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    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.25,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "CHC 4 - 5 SD",
      "winner": "SD"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "CHC 4 - 5 SD",
      "winner": "SD"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0243,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.158,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "SD",
      "model_winner": "SD",
      "simulation_winner": "SD",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "SD",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "SD",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
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        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
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        "home_runs": 5
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    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
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      "score_reviewed": {
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        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "SD",
    "display_confidence": 0.5152,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5983,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5152,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.2355,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.508,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0243,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 8,
        "median": 9,
        "max": 9,
        "range": 1
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
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      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-27T09:06:54.240008+00:00",
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        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
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        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
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        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
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        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
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        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
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        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
        "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
        "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
        "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
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        "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
        "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
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  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
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    "changes": [
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        "old_value": 2.15,
        "new_value": 2.25,
        "risk_tier": "low",
        "evaluation_mode": "artifact_replay"
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    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
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    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-10-01T01:36:18.917800+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-10-01T02:00:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.521101,
      "confidence": 0.521101,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "total_runs": 8
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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          "created_at_utc": "2026-09-27T09:06:54.240008+00:00",
          "parameters": {
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            "confidence.base_cap": 0.56,
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            "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
            "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
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            "score.variance_multiplier": 2.25,
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            "recent.window_games": 10,
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            "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
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            "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
            "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
            "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
            "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
            "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
            "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
            "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
            "h2h.history_limit": 5,
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            "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
            "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
            "simulation.allow_score": true,
            "player.model_weight": 0.5,
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            "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
            "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
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            "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
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    },
    "candidate_prediction": {
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        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
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        "away": {
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      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
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      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
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      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260930_CHW@HOU

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickCHW

Published scoreCHW 6 - 5 HOU

Final confidence50.5%

Calibrationraw 50.7% → blended 52.6%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.5% · weight 50.0% · n=554

H2H base featurehome net -4.0 · absolute 4.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.4495

Simulation variance2.25

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.386695508645534-4.599156950575839	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	6-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	6-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	6-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	6-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	6-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "CHW",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": -0.01,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.505,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.495,
    "away_win_probability": 0.505
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.01,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "CHW wins 6-5",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "CHW 6 - 5 HOU",
    "confidence": 0.505,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.506891,
    "sample_size": 554,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5451,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.525995,
    "published_confidence": 0.505,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -4.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 4.0,
    "home_average_margin": -0.8,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0231,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0231,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -9.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.571,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.224,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.4495
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.015845989915558672
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.01523535165003909
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.015164438291892318
      },
      {
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        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.015151179922761451
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.015062103526447183
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.042191997122750347,
      "1": 0.06290708089214903,
      "2": 0.08571727251404254,
      "3": 0.10674228977326668,
      "4": 0.12147979396985664,
      "5": 0.12634874694116788,
      "6": 0.12009839189637349,
      "7": 0.10432846221869552,
      "8": 0.08282620831877346,
      "9": 0.06009413873837548,
      "10": 0.039847016612186675,
      "11": 0.02414676008131672,
      "12": 0.013372767187312349,
      "13": 0.0067683539384524646,
      "14": 0.0031307197952807984
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04124052363175769,
      "1": 0.0615263224587683,
      "2": 0.08399081143444878,
      "3": 0.10491476930878556,
      "4": 0.11991555349430048,
      "5": 0.12541469780414272,
      "6": 0.12002048820439334,
      "7": 0.1050984655433629,
      "8": 0.08421149839115973,
      "9": 0.061741965086781196,
      "10": 0.041421281788251156,
      "11": 0.025427323806505666,
      "12": 0.01428274907871888,
      "13": 0.00734102989586382,
      "14": 0.0034525200727598734
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.25,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "CHW 6 - 5 HOU",
      "winner": "CHW"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "CHW 6 - 5 HOU",
      "winner": "CHW"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0304,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.154,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
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      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "CHW",
      "model_winner": "CHW",
      "simulation_winner": "CHW",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
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        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6,
        "draw_majority_team": "CHW",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
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      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
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      "simulation_score": {
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        "home_runs": 5
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      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
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      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
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    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
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    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
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    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
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        "median": 6,
        "max": 11,
        "range": 6
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          "wins": 84,
          "losses": 78,
          "win_pct": 0.5185185185185185,
          "runs_scored": 776,
          "runs_allowed": 720,
          "run_differential": 56,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.345679012345679,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": -0.5432,
        "win_pct_edge": -0.0185,
        "quality_edge": -0.4495,
        "season_quality_edge": -0.571,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": -0.571,
          "recent_quality_edge": -0.224,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": -0.4495
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 0.0,
        "reason": "season quality edge below action threshold"
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
            "home_runs": 5,
            "away_runs": 5,
            "probability": 0.016436013508587383
          },
          {
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            "away_runs": 5,
            "probability": 0.015773780317446754
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          {
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          {
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            "away_runs": 5,
            "probability": 0.015586116468145901
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        ],
        "home_distribution": {
          "0": 0.04083303399181604,
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          "3": 0.10786168949090831,
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          "11": 0.02277022670951525,
          "12": 0.012268547244609835,
          "13": 0.006015886734790257,
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        },
        "away_distribution": {
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          "5": 0.1277287300739745,
          "6": 0.12198529998967142,
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          "8": 0.08419108556786001,
          "9": 0.060842327005940805,
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          "11": 0.02404396191127213,
          "12": 0.013148207221788881,
          "13": 0.006551900846619801,
          "14": 0.00297514652921295
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.386695508645534,
      "home_runs": 4.599156950575839,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260930_PHI@ATL

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickATL

Published scorePHI 3 - 4 ATL

Final confidence51.3%

Calibrationraw 51.0% → blended 53.3%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.6% · weight 50.0% · n=738

H2H base featurehome net 6.0 · absolute 6.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.559

Simulation variance2.25

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.364232830289844-4.120854781610429	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	3-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	3-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	3-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	3-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	3-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "ATL",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": 0.025648,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.512824,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.512824,
    "away_win_probability": 0.487176
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.025648,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "ATL wins 4-3 (Extra Innings - 10)",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "PHI 3 - 4 ATL",
    "confidence": 0.512824375,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5101,
    "sample_size": 738,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5556,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.53285,
    "published_confidence": 0.512824,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 6.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 6.0,
    "home_average_margin": 1.2,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0346,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0346,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 10.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.679,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.336,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.559
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.031964266078845685
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.03135329346444452
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.030865882858655044
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.030275905003401455
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.028100708915149417
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.09771851485081708,
      "1": 0.1404202947605232,
      "2": 0.17129686247484727,
      "3": 0.17739257664169208,
      "4": 0.15595093432211035,
      "5": 0.11638768383622267,
      "6": 0.07373820743756168,
      "7": 0.03965926228174976,
      "8": 0.018107695912543312,
      "9": 0.007018563918190915,
      "10": 0.00230940356374175
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.10209835528351599,
      "1": 0.14625505172570633,
      "2": 0.17674523961492336,
      "3": 0.1801894232778916,
      "4": 0.154972837542889,
      "5": 0.11244149072978717,
      "6": 0.06882438265756163,
      "7": 0.03553880122263182,
      "8": 0.015481318447663437,
      "9": 0.005689286885495802,
      "10": 0.0017638126119337773
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.25,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "PHI 3 - 4 ATL",
      "winner": "ATL"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "PHI 3 - 4 ATL",
      "winner": "ATL"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0987,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.406,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "ATL",
      "model_winner": "ATL",
      "simulation_winner": "ATL",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "ATL",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5,
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.559,
      "winner": "ATL",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "ATL",
    "display_confidence": 0.5128,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5966,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5128,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.559,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.336,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0987,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.5,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.5,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 6,
        "median": 8,
        "max": 8,
        "range": 2
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
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      "parent_config_id": "candidate-c1d5650d9262b3dc",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-27T09:06:54.240008+00:00",
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        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
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        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
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        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
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        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
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        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
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        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
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        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
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        "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
        "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
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        "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
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    }
  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
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    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
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    "changes": [
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        "old_value": 2.15,
        "new_value": 2.25,
        "risk_tier": "low",
        "evaluation_mode": "artifact_replay"
      }
    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
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    ],
    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-30T17:37:19.753506+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.51775,
      "confidence": 0.51775,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "total_runs": 5
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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          "parent_config_id": "candidate-c1d5650d9262b3dc",
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          "parameters": {
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            "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
            "confidence.base_cap": 0.56,
            "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
            "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
            "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
            "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
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            "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
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            "score.variance_multiplier": 2.25,
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            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
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      }
    },
    "candidate_prediction": {
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      "pipeline_provenance": {
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        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
          "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
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          "parent_config_id": "candidate-982561b127534866",
          "created_at_utc": "2026-09-24T09:06:53.755755+00:00",
          "parameters": {
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            "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
            "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
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            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
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    },
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      "confidence_governor": {
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        "reasons": [
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        ],
        "score_coherence": {
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        "starter_experience": {
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      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
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        "home_net_margin": 6.0,
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        "home_run_delta": 0.0346,
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      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
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        "home": {
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          "run_differential_per_game": 0.7160493827160493,
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        "away": {
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        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 0.6235,
        "win_pct_edge": 0.037,
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        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
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    },
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      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
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  },
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    },
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    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
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      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
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      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
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      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

Every reviewed game

Date	Game	Pick	Final confidence	Raw confidence	Empirical hit rate	Empirical weight	Pred A-H	Actual A-H	Result	Largest recorded movement	Pipeline	Roadmap signals
20260930	20260930_BOS@NYY	NYY	54.0%	46.0%	56.1%	50.0%	3.0-4.0	2-9	hit	Enhanced Prediction (-1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.4601, "sample_size": 403, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5608, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.51045, "published_confidence": 0.54, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 16.0, "absolute_net_margin": 16.0, "home_average_margin": 3.2, "home_run_delta": 0.0923, "away_run_delta": -0.0923, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 15.0 }, { "home_margin": 7.0 }, { "home_margin": -6.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.4366, "recent_quality_edge": 0.16, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.3398 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.03065281984794564 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.029476179229875103 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.029058715983651007 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.027943266713242994 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.02765248353910017 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.09250250412863065, "1": 0.1334160590446711, "2": 0.16456308616204227, "3": 0.1735906926026969, "4": 0.1565994187010754, "5": 0.12081574949287402, "6": 0.07971254155017439, "7": 0.04497792929882791, "8": 0.021704108690770964, "9": 0.008956826278405286, "10": 0.0031610840498310757 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.09654318751914773, "1": 0.13884725501108944, "2": 0.1698027629703527, "3": 0.1765810101242111, "4": 0.15614749837995817, "5": 0.11741345144778333, "6": 0.07507450340987268, "7": 0.04081867202977053, "8": 0.018871962489918733, "9": 0.007419370306509241, "10": 0.0024803263113864073 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.25, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "BOS 3 - 4 NYY", "winner": "NYY" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "BOS 3 - 4 NYY", "winner": "NYY" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0537, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.23, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "NYY", "model_winner": "NYY", "simulation_winner": "NYY", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "NYY", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "NYY", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.3398, "winner": "NYY", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260930	20260930_CHC@SD	SD	51.5%	53.9%	56.1%	50.0%	4.0-5.0	1-4	hit	Variance Applied (0.3366)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.538882, "sample_size": 811, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.561, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.549941, "published_confidence": 0.515245, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -29.0, "absolute_net_margin": 29.0, "home_average_margin": -5.8, "home_run_delta": -0.1673, "away_run_delta": 0.1673, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -20.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -5.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.6358, "recent_quality_edge": 0.508, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": -0.2355 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.021100676535647546 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.02033424987658989 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02012387330860744 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.019752135345300695 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01948978370477639 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.060446866490935364, "1": 0.08907585420526569, "2": 0.1171869001932523, "3": 0.13763567105359828, "4": 0.1443164409818944, "5": 0.13509319807877898, "6": 0.11289742150695818, "7": 0.08423012216642811, "8": 0.05610269261390618, "9": 0.03336052277858291, "10": 0.017709848957529715, "11": 0.008393241786550515, "12": 0.0035512191863194043 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.06271366287780988, "1": 0.09227905630828238, "2": 0.12086109858609505, "3": 0.14090043891216095, "4": 0.14621117588601557, "5": 0.13504894918536367, "6": 0.11103100329387691, "7": 0.08125306168760116, "8": 0.05292704172094123, "9": 0.03068724649157306, "10": 0.015837281588268047, "11": 0.007275213971479352, "12": 0.0029747694905326856 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.25, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "CHC 4 - 5 SD", "winner": "SD" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "CHC 4 - 5 SD", "winner": "SD" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0243, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.158, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "SD", "model_winner": "SD", "simulation_winner": "SD", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "SD", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "SD", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": -0.2355, "winner": "SD", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260930	20260930_CHW@HOU	CHW	50.5%	50.7%	54.5%	50.0%	6.0-5.0	7-3	hit	Enhanced Prediction (2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.506891, "sample_size": 554, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5451, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.525995, "published_confidence": 0.505, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -4.0, "absolute_net_margin": 4.0, "home_average_margin": -0.8, "home_run_delta": -0.0231, "away_run_delta": 0.0231, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 4.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": -4.0 }, { "home_margin": 3.0 }, { "home_margin": -9.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.571, "recent_quality_edge": -0.224, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.4495 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.015845989915558672 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01523535165003909 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.015164438291892318 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.015151179922761451 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.015062103526447183 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.042191997122750347, "1": 0.06290708089214903, "2": 0.08571727251404254, "3": 0.10674228977326668, "4": 0.12147979396985664, "5": 0.12634874694116788, "6": 0.12009839189637349, "7": 0.10432846221869552, "8": 0.08282620831877346, "9": 0.06009413873837548, "10": 0.039847016612186675, "11": 0.02414676008131672, "12": 0.013372767187312349, "13": 0.0067683539384524646, "14": 0.0031307197952807984 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.04124052363175769, "1": 0.0615263224587683, "2": 0.08399081143444878, "3": 0.10491476930878556, "4": 0.11991555349430048, "5": 0.12541469780414272, "6": 0.12002048820439334, "7": 0.1050984655433629, "8": 0.08421149839115973, "9": 0.061741965086781196, "10": 0.041421281788251156, "11": 0.025427323806505666, "12": 0.01428274907871888, "13": 0.00734102989586382, "14": 0.0034525200727598734 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.25, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "CHW 6 - 5 HOU", "winner": "CHW" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "CHW 6 - 5 HOU", "winner": "CHW" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0304, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.154, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "CHW", "model_winner": "CHW", "simulation_winner": "CHW", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 5, "published_winner": "CHW", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6, "draw_majority_team": "CHW", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.4495, "winner": "CHW", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260930	20260930_PHI@ATL	ATL	51.3%	51.0%	55.6%	50.0%	3.0-4.0	4-3	miss	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.5101, "sample_size": 738, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5556, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.53285, "published_confidence": 0.512824, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 6.0, "absolute_net_margin": 6.0, "home_average_margin": 1.2, "home_run_delta": 0.0346, "away_run_delta": -0.0346, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -5.0 }, { "home_margin": 10.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.679, "recent_quality_edge": 0.336, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.559 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.031964266078845685 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.03135329346444452 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.030865882858655044 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.030275905003401455 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.028100708915149417 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.09771851485081708, "1": 0.1404202947605232, "2": 0.17129686247484727, "3": 0.17739257664169208, "4": 0.15595093432211035, "5": 0.11638768383622267, "6": 0.07373820743756168, "7": 0.03965926228174976, "8": 0.018107695912543312, "9": 0.007018563918190915, "10": 0.00230940356374175 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.10209835528351599, "1": 0.14625505172570633, "2": 0.17674523961492336, "3": 0.1801894232778916, "4": 0.154972837542889, "5": 0.11244149072978717, "6": 0.06882438265756163, "7": 0.03553880122263182, "8": 0.015481318447663437, "9": 0.005689286885495802, "10": 0.0017638126119337773 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.25, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "PHI 3 - 4 ATL", "winner": "ATL" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "PHI 3 - 4 ATL", "winner": "ATL" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0987, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.406, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "ATL", "model_winner": "ATL", "simulation_winner": "ATL", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "ATL", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5, "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.559, "winner": "ATL", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }

Starting-pitcher component quality

H	{ "mae": 2.5, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 1.0 }
R	{ "mae": 1.0, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": -0.25 }
ER	{ "mae": 0.875, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": -0.125 }
BB	{ "mae": 1.125, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.125 }
SO	{ "mae": 2.75, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 1.25 }
HR	{ "mae": 0.75, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.0 }
IP_outs	{ "mae_outs": 4.75, "mae_innings": 1.5833, "bias_outs": 3.75 }

IP error is measured in outs. No single-outing ERA is used; ER and workload are compared directly.

Date

Game

Side

Pred starter

Actual starter

Match

Pred IP

Actual IP

Δ outs

Pred ER

Actual ER

Δ ER

H P/A

BB P/A

SO P/A

All context

20260930

20260930_BOS@NYY

away

Sonny Gray

True

6.0

4.2

-4

-1

10/6

0/0

4/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "ERA": 2.7159763313609466,
      "WHIP": 1.1479289940828403,
      "IP": 169.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 29,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.828,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.067,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0518,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9956,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9863,
      "walk_factor": 0.95,
      "homer_factor": 0.9892,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 21.8,
      "bb_percent": 6.7,
      "woba": 0.293,
      "xwoba": 0.303,
      "barrel_percent": 6.9,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.3,
      "whiff_percent": 23.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": null,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 29.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8529,
        "prior_weight": 0.1471
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "543243",
      "report_date": "20260930",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 29,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 30.1,
            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 8.0,
            "H": 23.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 26.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 120.0,
            "Pitches": 454.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.6,
            "R": 1.6,
            "H": 4.6,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 5.2,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 24.0,
            "Pitches": 90.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.3736,
            "WHIP": 1.0879,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.26374,
            "H_per_IP": 0.75824,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.32967,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.85714,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.03297
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
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            "ER": 18.0,
            "R": 18.0,
            "H": 52.0,
            "BB": 18.0,
            "SO": 56.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 252.0,
            "Pitches": 916.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.1,
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            "R": 1.8,
            "H": 5.2,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 5.6,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 25.2,
            "Pitches": 91.6
          },
          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.123,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.28877,
            "H_per_IP": 0.83422,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.28877,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.8984,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.06417
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        },
        "season": {
          "games": 29,
          "totals": {
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            "R": 52.0,
            "H": 148.0,
            "BB": 46.0,
            "SO": 149.0,
            "HR": 16.0,
            "BF": 683.0,
            "Pitches": 2474.0
          },
          "per_game": {
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            "ER": 1.7586,
            "R": 1.7931,
            "H": 5.1034,
            "BB": 1.5862,
            "SO": 5.1379,
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            "BF": 23.5517,
            "Pitches": 85.3103
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          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.1479,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.30178,
            "H_per_IP": 0.87574,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.27219,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.88166,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09467
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
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        "predicted_BB": 1.902,
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        "predicted_HR": 0.422,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.8289,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.149
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
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      "adaptive_parameters": {
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_size": 29.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
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      "applied_metrics": {
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          "form": 6.0,
          "final": 6.0,
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
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          "form": 5.041,
          "final": 7.497,
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        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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          "final": 1.1181,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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          "final": 4.793,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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          "form": 0.422,
          "final": 1.0724,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.8289,
          "final": 2.8289,
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        "predicted_WHIP": {
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          "form": 1.149,
          "final": 1.149,
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    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
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        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
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        "ER": 18,
        "H": 52,
        "BB": 18,
        "SO": 56,
        "HR": 4,
        "ERA": 2.5989304812834226,
        "WHIP": 1.1229946524064172,
        "K9": 8.085561497326204,
        "HR9": 0.5775401069518717,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 7,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-23T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.781067460270328,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 11.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
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          "sample_size": 29.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8529,
          "prior_weight": 0.1471
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      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 11,
          "predicted_BB": 0,
          "predicted_SO": 5,
          "predicted_HR": 1
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "543243",
      "player_name": "Sonny Gray",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "BOS",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 11.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
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        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 11.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
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          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.25,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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              "after": 11.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.5,
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            {
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.25,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
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        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
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      "total_change": {
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
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        "profile": {
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          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
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          "metrics": {
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
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              "release_spin_rate": 2505.1386844908457,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 95,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 87.41606766331542,
                "release_spin_rate": 2505.1386844908457,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.4161,
              "release_spin_rate": 2505.1387,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1371,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.9794,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0518,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9956,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9863,
          "walk_factor": 0.95,
          "homer_factor": 0.9892,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.01,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "543243",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9956,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9956,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.95,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9892,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9863,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 10,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 28,
      "Pitches": 106,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was -4."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: True; actual quality start: False."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260930_BOS@NYY.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260930

20260930_BOS@NYY

home

Max Fried

True

6.0

2/3

1/1

5/6

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.79585798816568,
      "WHIP": 0.9940828402366864,
      "IP": 112.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 20,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.633,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.267,
      "last_start_IP": 6.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.8584,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.927,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0097,
      "walk_factor": 0.968,
      "homer_factor": 0.8118,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 24.0,
      "bb_percent": 7.6,
      "woba": 0.245,
      "xwoba": 0.246,
      "barrel_percent": 2.4,
      "hard_hit_percent": 29.8,
      "whiff_percent": 25.0
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": null,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 6.0,
      "season_IP": 112.2,
      "season_ERA": 2.796,
      "season_WHIP": 0.994,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 20.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8,
        "prior_weight": 0.2
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "608331",
      "report_date": "20260930",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 20,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 26.1,
            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 8.0,
            "H": 20.0,
            "BB": 6.0,
            "SO": 25.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 102.0,
            "Pitches": 400.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 1.6,
            "R": 1.6,
            "H": 4.0,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 5.0,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 20.4,
            "Pitches": 80.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.7342,
            "WHIP": 0.9873,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.3038,
            "H_per_IP": 0.75949,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.22785,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.94937,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07595
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 51.0,
            "ER": 13.0,
            "R": 13.0,
            "H": 36.0,
            "BB": 14.0,
            "SO": 54.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 194.0,
            "Pitches": 779.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 1.3,
            "R": 1.3,
            "H": 3.6,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 5.4,
            "HR": 0.3,
            "BF": 19.4,
            "Pitches": 77.9
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.2941,
            "WHIP": 0.9804,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.2549,
            "H_per_IP": 0.70588,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.27451,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.05882,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.05882
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 20,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 112.2,
            "ER": 35.0,
            "R": 35.0,
            "H": 79.0,
            "BB": 33.0,
            "SO": 104.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 434.0,
            "Pitches": 1696.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 1.75,
            "R": 1.75,
            "H": 3.95,
            "BB": 1.65,
            "SO": 5.2,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 21.7,
            "Pitches": 84.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.7959,
            "WHIP": 0.9941,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.31065,
            "H_per_IP": 0.70118,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.2929,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.92308,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0355
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 1.807,
        "predicted_H": 4.233,
        "predicted_BB": 1.527,
        "predicted_SO": 5.281,
        "predicted_HR": 0.43,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.997,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.0614
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4345,
      "form_weight": 0.5655,
      "form_reliability": 0.8,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 20.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8,
        "prior_weight": 0.2
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.807,
          "final": 1.0219,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 4.233,
          "final": 3.2628,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.527,
          "final": 1.298,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 5.281,
          "final": 4.7244,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.43,
          "final": 0.2432,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.997,
          "final": 2.997,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.0614,
          "final": 1.0614,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 51.0,
        "ER": 13,
        "H": 36,
        "BB": 14,
        "SO": 54,
        "HR": 3,
        "ERA": 2.2941176470588234,
        "WHIP": 0.9803921568627451,
        "K9": 9.529411764705882,
        "HR9": 0.5294117647058824,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 2,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-22T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.7432109540314689,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 0.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 20.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8,
          "prior_weight": 0.2
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 0,
          "predicted_H": 2,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 5,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "608331",
      "player_name": "Max Fried",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "NYY",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.25,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
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              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.25,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_R": 0.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.25,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 0,
          "better_metrics": 1,
          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
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            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.25,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "NYY",
        "games": 161,
        "wins": 93,
        "losses": 68,
        "win_pct": 0.5776,
        "runs_scored": 739.0,
        "runs_allowed": 601.0,
        "run_differential": 138.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.8571,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5901,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7329,
        "offense_index": 1.0214,
        "defense_index": 1.2039,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
          "run_differential": 1.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1709
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "BOS",
        "games": 162,
        "wins": 87,
        "losses": 75,
        "win_pct": 0.537,
        "runs_scored": 689.0,
        "runs_allowed": 611.0,
        "run_differential": 78.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.4815,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.2531,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7716,
        "offense_index": 0.9464,
        "defense_index": 1.1915,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 2.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.5,
          "run_differential": -4.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0904
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0805,
        "offense_edge": 0.0214,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0536,
        "defense_strength": 0.2039,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1915,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0115,
        "run_prevention": 0.967,
        "strikeout": 1.0067
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "608331",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "608331",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 380.0,
            "k_percent": 24.0,
            "bb_percent": 7.6,
            "woba": 0.245,
            "xwoba": 0.246,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 28.5,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 2.4,
            "hard_hit_percent": 29.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 74.5561,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 92.6087,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 46.0
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.1,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6329,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 1.4628,
            "command_and_miss": 0.1921,
            "regression_edge": -0.0286,
            "xwoba_edge": 1.8857,
            "barrel_edge": 1.0667,
            "hard_hit_edge": 1.1571,
            "whiff_edge": -0.0286,
            "bb_edge": 0.4,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0984
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "608331",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 75,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 75,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.10778862071564,
              "release_spin_rate": 2246.884199292124,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 75,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.10778862071564,
                "release_spin_rate": 2246.884199292124,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.1078,
              "release_spin_rate": 2246.8842,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0984,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.7027,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.8584,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.927,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0097,
          "walk_factor": 0.968,
          "homer_factor": 0.8118,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.001,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "608331",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.927,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.927,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.968,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.82,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0097,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 0,
      "predicted_ER": 0,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 86,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260930_BOS@NYY.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260930

20260930_CHC@SD

away

Kevin Gausman

True

5.2

3.1

-7

-1

7/5

0/0

9/1

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.50844277673546,
      "WHIP": 1.2720450281425892,
      "IP": 177.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 32,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.552,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.467,
      "last_start_IP": 5.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.1241,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9894,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.028,
      "walk_factor": 0.942,
      "homer_factor": 1.0183,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 24.5,
      "bb_percent": 6.3,
      "woba": 0.316,
      "xwoba": 0.309,
      "barrel_percent": 7.7,
      "hard_hit_percent": 40.0,
      "whiff_percent": 27.7
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": null,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 32.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8649,
        "prior_weight": 0.1351
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "592332",
      "report_date": "20260930",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 32,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 27.1,
            "ER": 16.0,
            "R": 17.0,
            "H": 30.0,
            "BB": 6.0,
            "SO": 35.0,
            "HR": 8.0,
            "BF": 117.0,
            "Pitches": 494.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 3.2,
            "R": 3.4,
            "H": 6.0,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 7.0,
            "HR": 1.6,
            "BF": 23.4,
            "Pitches": 98.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.2683,
            "WHIP": 1.3171,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.58537,
            "H_per_IP": 1.09756,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.21951,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.28049,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.29268
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 56.0,
            "ER": 28.0,
            "R": 29.0,
            "H": 60.0,
            "BB": 12.0,
            "SO": 61.0,
            "HR": 11.0,
            "BF": 235.0,
            "Pitches": 957.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.8,
            "R": 2.9,
            "H": 6.0,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 6.1,
            "HR": 1.1,
            "BF": 23.5,
            "Pitches": 95.7
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.5,
            "WHIP": 1.2857,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.5,
            "H_per_IP": 1.07143,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.21429,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.08929,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.19643
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 32,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 177.2,
            "ER": 89.0,
            "R": 96.0,
            "H": 179.0,
            "BB": 47.0,
            "SO": 184.0,
            "HR": 26.0,
            "BF": 750.0,
            "Pitches": 3003.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.7812,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 5.5938,
            "BB": 1.4688,
            "SO": 5.75,
            "HR": 0.8125,
            "BF": 23.4375,
            "Pitches": 93.8438
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.5084,
            "WHIP": 1.272,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.50094,
            "H_per_IP": 1.0075,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.26454,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.03565,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.14634
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.963,
        "predicted_H": 5.862,
        "predicted_BB": 1.368,
        "predicted_SO": 6.277,
        "predicted_HR": 1.211,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.816,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3059
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4071,
      "form_weight": 0.5929,
      "form_reliability": 0.8649,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 32.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8649,
        "prior_weight": 0.1351
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.963,
          "final": 2.9781,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 5.862,
          "final": 6.3253,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.368,
          "final": 0.8111,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 6.277,
          "final": 6.1642,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.211,
          "final": 1.5322,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.816,
          "final": 4.816,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3059,
          "final": 1.3059,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 56.0,
        "ER": 28,
        "H": 60,
        "BB": 12,
        "SO": 61,
        "HR": 11,
        "ERA": 4.5,
        "WHIP": 1.2857142857142858,
        "K9": 9.803571428571429,
        "HR9": 1.7678571428571428,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-23T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9990057719586398,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 7.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 6.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 32.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8649,
          "prior_weight": 0.1351
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "592332",
      "player_name": "Kevin Gausman",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CHC",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 9.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 9.0,
              "delta": 3.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.5,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 1,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 9.0,
              "delta": 3.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.5,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 7.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 9.0,
            "delta": 3.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.5,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 2,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 1,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 9.0,
            "delta": 3.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.5,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "CHC",
        "games": 162,
        "wins": 89,
        "losses": 73,
        "win_pct": 0.5494,
        "runs_scored": 850.0,
        "runs_allowed": 703.0,
        "run_differential": 147.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.9074,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.2469,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3395,
        "offense_index": 1.1674,
        "defense_index": 1.0357,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.3,
          "run_differential": 8.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.153
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "SD",
        "games": 162,
        "wins": 91,
        "losses": 71,
        "win_pct": 0.5617,
        "runs_scored": 722.0,
        "runs_allowed": 681.0,
        "run_differential": 41.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.2531,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4568,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2037,
        "offense_index": 0.9916,
        "defense_index": 1.0692,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 8,
          "losses": 2,
          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
          "run_differential": 18.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1884
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0354,
        "offense_edge": 0.1674,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0084,
        "defense_strength": 0.0357,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0692,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.3
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0,
        "run_prevention": 0.9969,
        "strikeout": 0.9996
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "592332",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "592332",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 698.0,
            "k_percent": 24.5,
            "bb_percent": 6.3,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.309,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.2,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.7,
            "hard_hit_percent": 40.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.1581,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.4959,
            "whiff_percent": 27.7,
            "swing_percent": 50.2
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.1,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6329,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.0047,
            "command_and_miss": 0.4243,
            "regression_edge": 0.2,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.0857,
            "barrel_edge": -0.1111,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.3,
            "whiff_edge": 0.3571,
            "bb_edge": 0.725,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0441
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "592332",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 98,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 98,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.07749610166415,
              "release_spin_rate": 2007.4215713814062,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 98,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.07749610166415,
                "release_spin_rate": 2007.4215713814062,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.0775,
              "release_spin_rate": 2007.4216,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0441,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.3148,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.1241,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9894,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.028,
          "walk_factor": 0.942,
          "homer_factor": 1.0183,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.007,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "592332",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9894,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 0.9894,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.942,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0183,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 1.028,
            "adjusted": 7
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 7,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 9,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 24,
      "Pitches": 104,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -7 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was -2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260930_CHC@SD.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260930

20260930_CHC@SD

home

Nick Pivetta

True

5.0

3.1

-5

-1

5/3

4/2

5/4

Last 10 before this game (8 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.855769230769231,
      "WHIP": 1.0096153846153846,
      "IP": 34.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 8,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.333,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.333,
      "last_start_IP": 4.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.156,
      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9867,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0141,
      "walk_factor": 0.9685,
      "homer_factor": 1.0105,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 30.0,
      "bb_percent": 5.7,
      "woba": 0.249,
      "xwoba": 0.277,
      "barrel_percent": 10.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.2,
      "whiff_percent": 22.8
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": null,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.0,
      "season_IP": 34.2,
      "season_ERA": 2.856,
      "season_WHIP": 1.01,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.6818181818181818,
        "last_10": 0.3181818181818182
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 8.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.6154,
        "prior_weight": 0.3846
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "601713",
      "report_date": "20260930",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 8,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 21.2,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 15.0,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 22.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 83.0,
            "Pitches": 341.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 0.6,
            "R": 0.6,
            "H": 3.0,
            "BB": 0.4,
            "SO": 4.4,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 16.6,
            "Pitches": 68.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.2462,
            "WHIP": 0.7846,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.13846,
            "H_per_IP": 0.69231,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.09231,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.01538,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09231
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 8,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 34.2,
            "ER": 11.0,
            "R": 11.0,
            "H": 27.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 42.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 140.0,
            "Pitches": 578.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 1.375,
            "R": 1.375,
            "H": 3.375,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 5.25,
            "HR": 0.25,
            "BF": 17.5,
            "Pitches": 72.25
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.8558,
            "WHIP": 1.0096,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.31731,
            "H_per_IP": 0.77885,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.23077,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.21154,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.05769
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 8,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 34.2,
            "ER": 11.0,
            "R": 11.0,
            "H": 27.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 42.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 140.0,
            "Pitches": 578.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 1.375,
            "R": 1.375,
            "H": 3.375,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 5.25,
            "HR": 0.25,
            "BF": 17.5,
            "Pitches": 72.25
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.8558,
            "WHIP": 1.0096,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.31731,
            "H_per_IP": 0.77885,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.23077,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.21154,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.05769
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.2,
        "predicted_ER": 1.457,
        "predicted_H": 3.77,
        "predicted_BB": 1.053,
        "predicted_SO": 4.696,
        "predicted_HR": 0.492,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.8569,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.0508
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.5125,
      "form_weight": 0.4875,
      "form_reliability": 0.6154,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 8.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.6154,
        "prior_weight": 0.3846
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.2,
          "final": 5.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 1.457,
          "final": 2.7603,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 3.77,
          "final": 4.4004,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 1.053,
          "final": 2.5633,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.696,
          "final": 4.8518,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 0.492,
          "final": 1.2648,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.8569,
          "final": 2.8569,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.0508,
          "final": 1.0508,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 34.2,
        "ER": 11,
        "H": 27,
        "BB": 8,
        "SO": 42,
        "HR": 2,
        "ERA": 2.8557692307692304,
        "WHIP": 1.0096153846153846,
        "K9": 10.903846153846152,
        "HR9": 0.5192307692307692,
        "games_pitched": 8,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 8,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 8,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-24T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8071273378927056,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 4.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 8.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.6154,
          "prior_weight": 0.3846
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 5,
          "predicted_BB": 4,
          "predicted_SO": 5,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "601713",
      "player_name": "Nick Pivetta",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "SD",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": -2.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.5,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.5,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 2,
            "better_metrics": 2,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": -2.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.5,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": -2.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.5,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.5,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 2,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
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          "better_metrics": 2,
          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": -2.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.5,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "SD",
        "games": 162,
        "wins": 91,
        "losses": 71,
        "win_pct": 0.5617,
        "runs_scored": 722.0,
        "runs_allowed": 681.0,
        "run_differential": 41.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.2531,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4568,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2037,
        "offense_index": 0.9916,
        "defense_index": 1.0692,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 8,
          "losses": 2,
          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
          "run_differential": 18.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1884
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "CHC",
        "games": 162,
        "wins": 89,
        "losses": 73,
        "win_pct": 0.5494,
        "runs_scored": 850.0,
        "runs_allowed": 703.0,
        "run_differential": 147.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.9074,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.2469,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3395,
        "offense_index": 1.1674,
        "defense_index": 1.0357,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.3,
          "run_differential": 8.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.153
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0354,
        "offense_edge": -0.0084,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.1674,
        "defense_strength": 0.0692,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0357,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.3
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9968,
        "run_prevention": 1.0181,
        "strikeout": 0.9877
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "601713",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "601713",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 100.0,
            "k_percent": 30.0,
            "bb_percent": 5.7,
            "woba": 0.249,
            "xwoba": 0.277,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.8,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 10.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.2,
            "avg_best_speed": 80.1978,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.7991,
            "whiff_percent": 22.8,
            "swing_percent": 47.8
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.1,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6329,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.506,
            "command_and_miss": 0.5629,
            "regression_edge": -0.8,
            "xwoba_edge": 1.0,
            "barrel_edge": -0.6444,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.0429,
            "whiff_edge": -0.3429,
            "bb_edge": 0.875,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0365
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "601713",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 66,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 66,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.21211734682227,
              "release_spin_rate": 2437.193161283574,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 66,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.21211734682227,
                "release_spin_rate": 2437.193161283574,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.2121,
              "release_spin_rate": 2437.1932,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0365,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.261,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.156,
          "sample_weight": 0.45,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9867,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0141,
          "walk_factor": 0.9685,
          "homer_factor": 1.0105,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.028,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "601713",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.994,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.994,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9858,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.0047,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0063,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 4,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 24,
      "Pitches": 106,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 8 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260930_CHC@SD.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260930

20260930_CHW@HOU

away

Sean Burke

True

5.0

4.0

-3

8/4

1/0

5/8

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.3423597678916828,
      "WHIP": 1.195357833655706,
      "IP": 172.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 32,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.272,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.267,
      "last_start_IP": 5.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.1204,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9898,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0229,
      "walk_factor": 0.99,
      "homer_factor": 1.0144,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 25.8,
      "bb_percent": 8.7,
      "woba": 0.302,
      "xwoba": 0.3,
      "barrel_percent": 8.3,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.8,
      "whiff_percent": 25.5
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": null,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 32.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8649,
        "prior_weight": 0.1351
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "680732",
      "report_date": "20260930",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 32,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 23.1,
            "ER": 9.0,
            "R": 10.0,
            "H": 22.0,
            "BB": 12.0,
            "SO": 24.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 103.0,
            "Pitches": 432.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 4.4,
            "BB": 2.4,
            "SO": 4.8,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 20.6,
            "Pitches": 86.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.4714,
            "WHIP": 1.4571,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.38571,
            "H_per_IP": 0.94286,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.51429,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.02857,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.04286
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 48.0,
            "ER": 22.0,
            "R": 23.0,
            "H": 44.0,
            "BB": 25.0,
            "SO": 45.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 211.0,
            "Pitches": 879.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.2,
            "R": 2.3,
            "H": 4.4,
            "BB": 2.5,
            "SO": 4.5,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 21.1,
            "Pitches": 87.9
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.125,
            "WHIP": 1.4375,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.45833,
            "H_per_IP": 0.91667,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.52083,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.9375,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.125
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 32,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 172.1,
            "ER": 64.0,
            "R": 67.0,
            "H": 144.0,
            "BB": 62.0,
            "SO": 185.0,
            "HR": 19.0,
            "BF": 716.0,
            "Pitches": 2878.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.0938,
            "H": 4.5,
            "BB": 1.9375,
            "SO": 5.7812,
            "HR": 0.5938,
            "BF": 22.375,
            "Pitches": 89.9375
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.3424,
            "WHIP": 1.1954,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.37137,
            "H_per_IP": 0.83559,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.35977,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.0735,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11025
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.039,
        "predicted_H": 4.45,
        "predicted_BB": 2.274,
        "predicted_SO": 4.809,
        "predicted_HR": 0.452,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.8014,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3931
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4071,
      "form_weight": 0.5929,
      "form_reliability": 0.8649,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 32.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8649,
        "prior_weight": 0.1351
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.2,
          "final": 4.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.039,
          "final": 2.0231,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 8.0,
          "form": 4.45,
          "final": 5.8951,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.274,
          "final": 1.7554,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 4.809,
          "final": 4.4797,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.452,
          "final": 0.6751,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.8014,
          "final": 3.8014,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3931,
          "final": 1.3931,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 48.0,
        "ER": 22,
        "H": 44,
        "BB": 25,
        "SO": 45,
        "HR": 6,
        "ERA": 4.125,
        "WHIP": 1.4375,
        "K9": 8.4375,
        "HR9": 1.125,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 2,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-25T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9606129148157826,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 8.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 32.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8649,
          "prior_weight": 0.1351
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "680732",
      "player_name": "Sean Burke",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CHW",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 8.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 8.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.25,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
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            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.25,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 8.0,
            "after": 8.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.25,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 0,
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          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": {
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            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.25,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "CHW",
        "games": 162,
        "wins": 84,
        "losses": 78,
        "win_pct": 0.5185,
        "runs_scored": 776.0,
        "runs_allowed": 720.0,
        "run_differential": 56.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.3457,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.7901,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4444,
        "offense_index": 1.0656,
        "defense_index": 1.0114,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3,
          "run_differential": 22.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.128
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "HOU",
        "games": 162,
        "wins": 81,
        "losses": 81,
        "win_pct": 0.5,
        "runs_scored": 734.0,
        "runs_allowed": 766.0,
        "run_differential": -32.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.1975,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5309,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7284,
        "offense_index": 1.008,
        "defense_index": 0.9507,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7,
          "run_differential": 22.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0242
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.1522,
        "offense_edge": 0.0656,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.008,
        "defense_strength": 0.0114,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0493,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0061,
        "run_prevention": 0.9925,
        "strikeout": 1.0039
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "680732",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "680732",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 644.0,
            "k_percent": 25.8,
            "bb_percent": 8.7,
            "woba": 0.302,
            "xwoba": 0.3,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 35.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.3949,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9697,
            "whiff_percent": 25.5,
            "swing_percent": 49.1
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.1,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6329,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.0777,
            "command_and_miss": 0.2779,
            "regression_edge": 0.0571,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.3429,
            "barrel_edge": -0.2444,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.1286,
            "whiff_edge": 0.0429,
            "bb_edge": 0.125,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0129
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "680732",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 84,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 84,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.63367275202977,
              "release_spin_rate": 2515.4651388536104,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 84,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.63367275202977,
                "release_spin_rate": 2515.4651388536104,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.6337,
              "release_spin_rate": 2515.4651,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0129,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.0923,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.1204,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9898,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0229,
          "walk_factor": 0.99,
          "homer_factor": 1.0144,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.002,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "680732",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9898,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9898,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.99,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0144,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0229,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 8,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 24,
      "Pitches": 98,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was -4."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was +2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260930_CHW@HOU.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260930

20260930_CHW@HOU

home

Hunter Brown

True

5.2

0.2

-15

7/5

2/1

7/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.186335403726708,
      "WHIP": 1.2670807453416149,
      "IP": 107.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 20,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.367,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.267,
      "last_start_IP": 5.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.4695,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9601,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0394,
      "walk_factor": 1.06,
      "homer_factor": 0.9472,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 27.5,
      "bb_percent": 12.2,
      "woba": 0.289,
      "xwoba": 0.282,
      "barrel_percent": 6.0,
      "hard_hit_percent": 36.9,
      "whiff_percent": 26.7
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": null,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.2,
      "season_IP": 107.1,
      "season_ERA": 3.186,
      "season_WHIP": 1.267,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 20.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8,
        "prior_weight": 0.2
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "686613",
      "report_date": "20260930",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 20,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 26.1,
            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 10.0,
            "H": 20.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 38.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 111.0,
            "Pitches": 480.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 1.6,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 4.0,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 7.6,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 22.2,
            "Pitches": 96.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.7342,
            "WHIP": 1.1772,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.3038,
            "H_per_IP": 0.75949,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.41772,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.44304,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.03797
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 54.2,
            "ER": 18.0,
            "R": 20.0,
            "H": 43.0,
            "BB": 25.0,
            "SO": 69.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 228.0,
            "Pitches": 955.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 4.3,
            "BB": 2.5,
            "SO": 6.9,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 22.8,
            "Pitches": 95.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.9634,
            "WHIP": 1.2439,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.32927,
            "H_per_IP": 0.78659,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.45732,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.2622,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09146
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 20,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 107.1,
            "ER": 38.0,
            "R": 42.0,
            "H": 81.0,
            "BB": 55.0,
            "SO": 124.0,
            "HR": 11.0,
            "BF": 451.0,
            "Pitches": 1881.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 1.9,
            "R": 2.1,
            "H": 4.05,
            "BB": 2.75,
            "SO": 6.2,
            "HR": 0.55,
            "BF": 22.55,
            "Pitches": 94.05
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.1863,
            "WHIP": 1.2671,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.35404,
            "H_per_IP": 0.75466,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.51242,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.15528,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10248
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 1.948,
        "predicted_H": 4.381,
        "predicted_BB": 2.355,
        "predicted_SO": 6.723,
        "predicted_HR": 0.461,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.2468,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2473
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4345,
      "form_weight": 0.5655,
      "form_reliability": 0.8,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 20.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8,
        "prior_weight": 0.2
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 1.948,
          "final": 2.4051,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 4.381,
          "final": 5.519,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.355,
          "final": 2.2008,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 6.723,
          "final": 4.6709,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.461,
          "final": 0.2607,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.2468,
          "final": 3.2468,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2473,
          "final": 1.2473,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 54.2,
        "ER": 18,
        "H": 43,
        "BB": 25,
        "SO": 69,
        "HR": 5,
        "ERA": 2.963414634146341,
        "WHIP": 1.2439024390243902,
        "K9": 11.359756097560975,
        "HR9": 0.823170731707317,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-25T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8250946221328557,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 7.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 2.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 20.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8,
          "prior_weight": 0.2
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.2,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 7,
          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 7,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "686613",
      "player_name": "Hunter Brown",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "HOU",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 2.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 5.0,
              "percent_delta": 2.5,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 2.0,
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              "delta": 5.0,
              "percent_delta": 2.5,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.2,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 7.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 5.0,
            "percent_delta": 2.5,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 2,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
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          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 5.0,
            "percent_delta": 2.5,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "HOU",
        "games": 162,
        "wins": 81,
        "losses": 81,
        "win_pct": 0.5,
        "runs_scored": 734.0,
        "runs_allowed": 766.0,
        "run_differential": -32.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.1975,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5309,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7284,
        "offense_index": 1.008,
        "defense_index": 0.9507,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7,
          "run_differential": 22.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0242
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "CHW",
        "games": 162,
        "wins": 84,
        "losses": 78,
        "win_pct": 0.5185,
        "runs_scored": 776.0,
        "runs_allowed": 720.0,
        "run_differential": 56.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.3457,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.7901,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4444,
        "offense_index": 1.0656,
        "defense_index": 1.0114,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3,
          "run_differential": 22.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.128
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.1522,
        "offense_edge": 0.008,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0656,
        "defense_strength": -0.0493,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0114,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9898,
        "run_prevention": 1.023,
        "strikeout": 0.9902
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "686613",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "686613",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 386.0,
            "k_percent": 27.5,
            "bb_percent": 12.2,
            "woba": 0.289,
            "xwoba": 0.282,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 27.6,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.0,
            "hard_hit_percent": 36.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 74.1859,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.2534,
            "whiff_percent": 26.7,
            "swing_percent": 42.4
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.1,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6329,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.6565,
            "command_and_miss": 0.2721,
            "regression_edge": 0.2,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.8571,
            "barrel_edge": 0.2667,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.1429,
            "whiff_edge": 0.2143,
            "bb_edge": -0.75,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.1385
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "686613",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 97,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 97,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 92.33714491013515,
              "release_spin_rate": 2193.36097163242,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 97,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 92.33714491013515,
                "release_spin_rate": 2193.36097163242,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 92.3371,
              "release_spin_rate": 2193.361,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.1385,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.9891,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.4695,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9601,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0394,
          "walk_factor": 1.06,
          "homer_factor": 0.9472,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.007,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "686613",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9601,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9601,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.06,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9472,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 1.0394,
            "adjusted": 7
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 7,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 28,
      "Pitches": 102,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least three innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -15 outs from the projected workload."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260930_CHW@HOU.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260930

20260930_PHI@ATL

away

Cristopher Sánchez

True

6.1

6.2

5/6

1/5

5/6

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.9130434782608696,
      "WHIP": 1.2028985507246377,
      "IP": 207.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 33,
      "role_avg_IP": 6.273,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.333,
      "last_start_IP": 7.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.4376,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9628,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0629,
      "walk_factor": 0.922,
      "homer_factor": 1.0056,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 27.0,
      "bb_percent": 5.3,
      "woba": 0.296,
      "xwoba": 0.285,
      "barrel_percent": 7.5,
      "hard_hit_percent": 42.0,
      "whiff_percent": 31.3
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": null,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 33.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8684,
        "prior_weight": 0.1316
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "650911",
      "report_date": "20260930",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 33,
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      {
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        "profile": {
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          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
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            "primary_pitch": {
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              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.4376,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9628,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0629,
          "walk_factor": 0.922,
          "homer_factor": 1.0056,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.011,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "650911",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9628,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 0.9628,
            "adjusted": 7
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.922,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0056,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0629,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.1,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 26,
      "Pitches": 101,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was +4."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260930_PHI@ATL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260930

20260930_PHI@ATL

home

Tyler Mahle

True

6.0

7.0

2/6

2/1

8/6

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.9865771812080535,
      "WHIP": 1.2348993288590604,
      "IP": 149.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 27,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.519,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.133,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.046,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9961,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.988,
      "walk_factor": 0.966,
      "homer_factor": 0.9832,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 22.3,
      "bb_percent": 7.5,
      "woba": 0.311,
      "xwoba": 0.306,
      "barrel_percent": 6.8,
      "hard_hit_percent": 37.1,
      "whiff_percent": 22.9
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": null,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 27.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
        "prior_weight": 0.1562
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "641816",
      "report_date": "20260930",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 27,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 30.2,
            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 10.0,
            "H": 24.0,
            "BB": 4.0,
            "SO": 25.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 117.0,
            "Pitches": 469.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.6,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 4.8,
            "BB": 0.8,
            "SO": 5.0,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 23.4,
            "Pitches": 93.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.3478,
            "WHIP": 0.913,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.26087,
            "H_per_IP": 0.78261,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.13043,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.81522,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13043
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 60.0,
            "ER": 17.0,
            "R": 19.0,
            "H": 48.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 57.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 235.0,
            "Pitches": 923.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.7,
            "R": 1.9,
            "H": 4.8,
            "BB": 1.1,
            "SO": 5.7,
            "HR": 0.7,
            "BF": 23.5,
            "Pitches": 92.3
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.55,
            "WHIP": 0.9833,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.28333,
            "H_per_IP": 0.8,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.18333,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.95,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11667
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 27,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 149.0,
            "ER": 66.0,
            "R": 69.0,
            "H": 138.0,
            "BB": 46.0,
            "SO": 137.0,
            "HR": 20.0,
            "BF": 614.0,
            "Pitches": 2402.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.4444,
            "R": 2.5556,
            "H": 5.1111,
            "BB": 1.7037,
            "SO": 5.0741,
            "HR": 0.7407,
            "BF": 22.7407,
            "Pitches": 88.963
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.9866,
            "WHIP": 1.2349,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.44295,
            "H_per_IP": 0.92617,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.30872,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.91946,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13423
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.006,
        "predicted_H": 5.013,
        "predicted_BB": 1.277,
        "predicted_SO": 5.299,
        "predicted_HR": 0.772,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.0382,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.0582
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.416,
      "form_weight": 0.584,
      "form_reliability": 0.8438,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 27.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
        "prior_weight": 0.1562
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 6.0,
          "final": 6.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 2.006,
          "final": 1.1715,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 5.013,
          "final": 3.7596,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.277,
          "final": 1.5778,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 8.0,
          "form": 5.299,
          "final": 6.4226,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.772,
          "final": 0.4509,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.0382,
          "final": 3.0382,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.0582,
          "final": 1.0582,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 60.0,
        "ER": 17,
        "H": 48,
        "BB": 11,
        "SO": 57,
        "HR": 7,
        "ERA": 2.55,
        "WHIP": 0.9833333333333333,
        "K9": 8.55,
        "HR9": 1.05,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 7,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-24T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.7720712481491159,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 0.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 8.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 27.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8438,
          "prior_weight": 0.1562
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "641816",
      "player_name": "Tyler Mahle",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "ATL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_R": 0.0,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 0.0,
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            "percent_delta": null,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 8.0,
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        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 0,
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          "biggest_boost": null,
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          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "ATL",
        "games": 162,
        "wins": 94,
        "losses": 68,
        "win_pct": 0.5802,
        "runs_scored": 742.0,
        "runs_allowed": 626.0,
        "run_differential": 116.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.716,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5802,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8642,
        "offense_index": 1.0186,
        "defense_index": 1.1636,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.9,
          "run_differential": 1.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1558
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "PHI",
        "games": 162,
        "wins": 88,
        "losses": 74,
        "win_pct": 0.5432,
        "runs_scored": 713.0,
        "runs_allowed": 698.0,
        "run_differential": 15.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0926,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4012,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3086,
        "offense_index": 0.9788,
        "defense_index": 1.0436,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.8,
          "run_differential": -16.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.013
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.1428,
        "offense_edge": 0.0186,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0212,
        "defense_strength": 0.1636,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0436,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0115,
        "run_prevention": 0.9731,
        "strikeout": 1.006
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "641816",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "641816",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 543.0,
            "k_percent": 22.3,
            "bb_percent": 7.5,
            "woba": 0.311,
            "xwoba": 0.306,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 32.0,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.8,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.1,
            "avg_best_speed": 80.0191,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8316,
            "whiff_percent": 22.9,
            "swing_percent": 45.6
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.1,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6329,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.0664,
            "command_and_miss": -0.0171,
            "regression_edge": 0.1429,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.1714,
            "barrel_edge": 0.0889,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.1143,
            "whiff_edge": -0.3286,
            "bb_edge": 0.425,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0126
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "641816",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 93,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 93,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.64026118417685,
              "release_spin_rate": 2134.9981031675284,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
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              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
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            },
            "pitch_mix": [
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                "pitches": 93,
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                "release_speed": 89.64026118417685,
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                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
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                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.6403,
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              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0126,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.0897,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.046,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9961,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.988,
          "walk_factor": 0.966,
          "homer_factor": 0.9832,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.005,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "641816",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9961,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9961,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.966,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9832,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.988,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 0,
      "predicted_ER": 0,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 8,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 102,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +4."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260930_PHI@ATL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}