Continuous postgame learning

daily_20260929 · dates 20260929 · generated 2026-09-30T09:00:14.083204+00:00

4-0

Winner picks · 100.0%

Comparable starters · 0 identity mismatches

6/8

Starter ER within ±1

3/8

Starter workload within ±1 inning

Slate coverage

Every calendar day in the requested window is listed. Pending means the prediction exists but the official final result has not settled; Missing review artifact identifies a data gap instead of hiding the day.

Date	Games	Settled	Pending	Hits	Misses	Calibration traces	Review status	Pipeline versions
20260929	4	4	0	4	0	4	Available	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Prioritized optimization roadmap

Runtime evidence for the six recommendations. “Observed games” counts artifacts generated with the relevant trace; older artifacts remain honestly blank.

Priority	Change	Status	Observed games	Evidence
P1	Empirical Confidence Blend	Implemented And Applied	4	applied games: 4formula: w_emp=min(0.5,sample_size/200); final=(1-w_emp)raw+w_empempirical_hit_rate
P1	H2H Base Feature	Implemented And Monitored	4	available games: 4
P2	Score Distribution Widening	Implemented Above 1.4X	4	variance multipliers: [2.25]
P2	Simulation Flip Control	Diagnostic Only Without Independent Support	4	simulation flip candidates: 0published flips: 0
P3	Recent Form Quality Blend	Implemented Last 10	4	configured window: 10last 10 games: 4observed windows: [10]
P3	Continuous Calibration Audit	Implemented	4	settled games: 4metric: bucket_calibration_error

Confidence calibration by bucket

bucket_calibration_error = average published confidence − observed hit rate. Positive means overconfident; negative means underconfident. Weighted absolute error: 0.4792.

Bucket	Games	Average confidence	Observed hit rate	Calibration error	Direction
0.50-0.55	4	52.1%	100.0%	-47.9%	underconfident

Where the score pipeline gained or lost quality

Direct comparison against official final runs. Positive deltas mean the stage was worse than historical_ml; this is score error, not a synthetic one-game ERA.

Stage	Games	Team-run MAE	Total-run MAE	Margin MAE	Winner accuracy	Δ team MAE vs base	Δ margin MAE vs base
historical_ml	4	2.281	0.6485	4.562	100.0%	0.0	0.0
variance_applied	4	2.375	0.75	4.75	50.0%	0.094	0.188
enhanced_prediction	4	2.5	2.0	4.5	100.0%	0.219	-0.062
embedded_savant_run_environment	4	2.375	2.25	4.25	100.0%	0.094	-0.312
fundamental_edge_target_review	4	2.375	2.25	4.25	100.0%	0.094	-0.312
capped_target	4	2.375	2.25	4.25	100.0%	0.094	-0.312
simulation_result	4	2.375	2.25	4.25	100.0%	0.094	-0.312
published_final	4	2.375	2.25	4.25	100.0%	0.094	-0.312

Largest measured regression

{
  "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
  "games": 4,
  "team_run_mae": 2.5,
  "total_run_mae": 2.0,
  "margin_mae": 4.5,
  "winner_hits": 4,
  "winner_accuracy": 1.0,
  "team_run_mae_delta_vs_historical_ml": 0.219,
  "margin_mae_delta_vs_historical_ml": -0.062
}

Automatic questions

Which recorded score stage reinforced losing picks?

insufficient_sample sample=0

No settled miss predictions were available.

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "top_stage": null,
  "reason": "No settled miss predictions were available.",
  "ranking": [],
  "interpretation": "No attribution claim can be made without settled games."
}

Which recorded score stage reinforced winning picks?

partial_attribution sample=4

Largest positive recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. Positive, negative, net, absolute, and unchanged movements are shown separately so opposite games cannot cancel into a misleading zero. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution.

Stage	Positive Toward Pick Run Delta	Negative Away From Pick Run Delta	Net Toward Pick Run Delta	Absolute Run Movement	Games Recorded	Games Supporting Pick	Games Opposing Pick	Games Unchanged	Meaning
enhanced_prediction	2.0	-1.0	1.0	3.0	4	2	1	1	reinforced final pick
embedded_savant_run_environment	1.0	0.0	1.0	1.0	4	1	0	3	reinforced final pick
variance_applied	0.0629	-0.8148	-0.7519	0.8777	4	1	3	0	reinforced final pick
fundamental_edge_target_review	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	4	0	0	4	recorded but did not change score margin
capped_target	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	4	0	0	4	recorded but did not change score margin
simulation_result	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	4	0	0	4	recorded but did not change score margin

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "partial_attribution",
  "sample_size": 4,
  "top_stage": "enhanced_prediction",
  "ranking": [
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 2.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -1.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 3.0,
      "games_recorded": 4,
      "games_supporting_pick": 2,
      "games_opposing_pick": 1,
      "games_unchanged": 1,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 1.0,
      "games_recorded": 4,
      "games_supporting_pick": 1,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 3,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0629,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -0.8148,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": -0.7519,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.8777,
      "games_recorded": 4,
      "games_supporting_pick": 1,
      "games_opposing_pick": 3,
      "games_unchanged": 0,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 4,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 4,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 4,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 4,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 4,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 4,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    }
  ],
  "interpretation": "Largest positive recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. Positive, negative, net, absolute, and unchanged movements are shown separately so opposite games cannot cancel into a misleading zero. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution."
}

Are Overs performing worse than Unders?

not_measurable sample=0

The current artifacts contain predicted totals but no total line, Over/Under selection, price, or settled total bet.

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "The current artifacts contain predicted totals but no total line, Over/Under selection, price, or settled total bet.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "total_line",
    "total_selection",
    "odds",
    "settled_result"
  ]
}

Are hitter props outperforming pitcher props?

not_measurable sample=0

Player stat projections are not stored as priced, selected, and settled prop predictions.

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "Player stat projections are not stored as priced, selected, and settled prop predictions.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "prop_family",
    "prop_line",
    "selection",
    "odds",
    "settled_result"
  ]
}

Which sportsbooks produce better opportunities?

not_measurable sample=0

No settled prediction was linked to a sportsbook snapshot.

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "No settled prediction was linked to a sportsbook snapshot.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "sportsbook",
    "selection_odds",
    "settled_profit"
  ],
  "books": []
}

Which confidence ranges underperform?

insufficient_sample sample=4

Range	Sample Size	Hits	Accuracy
[0.000, 0.525)	2	2	1.0
[0.525, 0.550)	2	2	1.0
[0.550, 0.600)	0	0
[0.600, 1.010)	0	0

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 4,
  "minimum_recommended_sample": 20,
  "worst_observed_range": {
    "range": "[0.000, 0.525)",
    "sample_size": 2,
    "hits": 2,
    "misses": 0,
    "accuracy": 1.0
  },
  "ranges": [
    {
      "range": "[0.000, 0.525)",
      "sample_size": 2,
      "hits": 2,
      "misses": 0,
      "accuracy": 1.0
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.525, 0.550)",
      "sample_size": 2,
      "hits": 2,
      "misses": 0,
      "accuracy": 1.0
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.550, 0.600)",
      "sample_size": 0,
      "hits": 0,
      "misses": 0,
      "accuracy": null
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.600, 1.010)",
      "sample_size": 0,
      "hits": 0,
      "misses": 0,
      "accuracy": null
    }
  ]
}

Which monitored features are drifting?

insufficient_sample sample=4

Three slates are descriptive only and cannot establish statistical feature drift.

Date	Sample Size	Mean Confidence	Mean Predicted Total	Accuracy
20260929	4	0.5208	7.75	1.0

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 4,
  "minimum_baseline_sample": 30,
  "minimum_recent_sample": 20,
  "reason": "Three slates are descriptive only and cannot establish statistical feature drift.",
  "daily_monitors": [
    {
      "date": "20260929",
      "sample_size": 4,
      "mean_confidence": 0.5208,
      "mean_predicted_total": 7.75,
      "accuracy": 1.0
    }
  ],
  "features_monitored": [
    "confidence",
    "predicted_total",
    "winner_accuracy"
  ]
}

Which model version introduced errors?

insufficient_sample sample=4

Version error claims require at least 30 settled predictions per version.

Pipeline Version	Model Schema Version	Policy Version	Sample Size	Hits	Misses	Accuracy
enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	historical_game_temporal_v11	model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3	4	4	0	1.0

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 4,
  "minimum_sample_per_version": 30,
  "versions": [
    {
      "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "sample_size": 4,
      "hits": 4,
      "misses": 0,
      "accuracy": 1.0
    }
  ],
  "reason": "Version error claims require at least 30 settled predictions per version."
}

Game processing context

How each game moved from the historical model through confidence calibration, H2H and recent-form signals, score distribution and simulation policy. Postgame learning is added only after the official result settles.

20260929_BOS@NYY

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickNYY

Published scoreBOS 2 - 4 NYY

Final confidence54.0%

Calibrationraw 46.0% → blended 51.7%

Empirical signalhit rate 57.5% · weight 50.0% · n=454

H2H base featurehome net 16.0 · absolute 16.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.3398

Simulation variance2.25

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.760195497285993-5.470883753518859	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	3-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	2-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	2-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	2-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	2-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYY",
    "away_runs": 2,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": 0.08,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.54,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.54,
    "away_win_probability": 0.46
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.08,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYY wins 4-2",
    "away_runs": 2,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 2,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "BOS 2 - 4 NYY",
    "confidence": 0.54,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.4601,
    "sample_size": 454,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5749,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.5175,
    "published_confidence": 0.54,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 16.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 16.0,
    "home_average_margin": 3.2,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0923,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0923,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 15.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 7.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -6.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.4366,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.16,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.3398
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02977999552619565
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.028299020330958595
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.027920813842935526
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.027284242285591977
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.026775108419609717
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.08934411812353953,
      "1": 0.12914603979535405,
      "2": 0.1603566349998798,
      "3": 0.17103440822877292,
      "4": 0.1567006358070743,
      "5": 0.1233243235615736,
      "6": 0.08337146626985006,
      "7": 0.04841465609872311,
      "8": 0.024150547298842237,
      "9": 0.01034827156487325,
      "10": 0.0038088982515172886
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.09318405526785921,
      "1": 0.13433465606203532,
      "2": 0.16545805387361748,
      "3": 0.17411698519962368,
      "4": 0.15654808115449936,
      "5": 0.12025627343088624,
      "6": 0.07892618611896245,
      "7": 0.04425760169079799,
      "8": 0.02120352259904954,
      "9": 0.00867923688573888,
      "10": 0.0030353477169295655
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.25,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "BOS 2 - 4 NYY",
      "winner": "NYY"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "BOS 2 - 4 NYY",
      "winner": "NYY"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0121,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.23,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "NYY",
      "model_winner": "NYY",
      "simulation_winner": "NYY",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 6,
        "published_winner": "NYY",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5,
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 2,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 2,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.3398,
      "winner": "NYY",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 2,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "NYY",
    "display_confidence": 0.54,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5577,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.54,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.3398,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.16,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0121,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.5,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.5,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 2,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 9,
        "range": 7
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-8133e99fc8d4e4c7",
      "config_hash": "sha256:1ad22b058ac7f786856b2afec11660ade914953b5b660a1d45855a0be03d5ccc",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-c1d5650d9262b3dc",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-27T09:06:54.240008+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 2.25,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
        "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
        "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
        "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
        "context.lineup_context_min": 0.8,
        "context.lineup_context_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
        "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
        "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
        "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
        "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
        "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
        "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
      }
    }
  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
      "config_id": "candidate-c1d5650d9262b3dc",
      "config_hash": "sha256:da7e1fc0092c8fca4370044eb58fa5897f6ef528f3b1de083f3bc7a60a53c065",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-982561b127534866",
      "parent_config_hash": "sha256:53760a5ddffc6f180dee92a59d27889f1cdba857749a59d2378ee233c5952253"
    },
    "changes": [
      {
        "parameter": "score.variance_multiplier",
        "old_value": 2.15,
        "new_value": 2.25,
        "risk_tier": "low",
        "evaluation_mode": "artifact_replay"
      }
    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
      "artifact_replay"
    ],
    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-29T23:36:45.878109+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.555379,
      "confidence": 0.555379,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "total_runs": 6
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
          "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
          "config_id": "candidate-8133e99fc8d4e4c7",
          "config_hash": "sha256:1ad22b058ac7f786856b2afec11660ade914953b5b660a1d45855a0be03d5ccc",
          "parent_config_id": "candidate-c1d5650d9262b3dc",
          "created_at_utc": "2026-09-27T09:06:54.240008+00:00",
          "parameters": {
            "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
            "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
            "confidence.base_cap": 0.56,
            "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
            "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
            "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
            "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
            "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
            "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
            "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
            "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
            "confidence.floor": 0.505,
            "score.variance_multiplier": 2.25,
            "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
            "recent.window_games": 10,
            "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
            "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
            "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
            "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
            "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
            "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
            "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
            "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
            "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
            "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
            "h2h.history_limit": 5,
            "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
            "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
            "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
            "simulation.allow_score": true,
            "player.model_weight": 0.5,
            "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
            "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
            "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
            "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
            "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
            "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
            "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
            "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
            "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
            "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
            "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
            "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
            "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
            "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
            "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
            "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
            "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
            "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
            "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
            "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
            "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
            "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
            "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
            "context.lineup_context_min": 0.8,
            "context.lineup_context_weight": 1.0,
            "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
            "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
            "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
            "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
            "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
            "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
            "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
            "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
            "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "candidate_prediction": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.555452,
      "confidence": 0.555452,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "total_runs": 6
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
          "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
          "config_id": "candidate-c1d5650d9262b3dc",
          "config_hash": "sha256:da7e1fc0092c8fca4370044eb58fa5897f6ef528f3b1de083f3bc7a60a53c065",
          "parent_config_id": "candidate-982561b127534866",
          "created_at_utc": "2026-09-24T09:06:53.755755+00:00",
          "parameters": {
            "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
            "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
            "confidence.base_cap": 0.56,
            "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
            "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
            "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
            "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
            "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
            "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
            "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
            "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
            "confidence.floor": 0.505,
            "score.variance_multiplier": 2.15,
            "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
            "recent.window_games": 10,
            "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
            "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
            "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
            "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
            "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
            "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
            "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
            "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
            "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
            "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
            "h2h.history_limit": 5,
            "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
            "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
            "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
            "simulation.allow_score": true,
            "player.model_weight": 0.5,
            "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
            "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
            "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
            "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
            "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
            "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
            "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
            "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
            "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
            "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
            "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
            "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
            "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
            "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
            "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
            "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
            "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
            "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
            "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
            "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
            "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
            "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
            "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
            "context.lineup_context_min": 0.8,
            "context.lineup_context_weight": 1.0,
            "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
            "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
            "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
            "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
            "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
            "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
            "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
            "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
            "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "diagnostics": {
      "confidence_calibration": {
        "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
        "applied": true,
        "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
        "raw_confidence": 0.4601,
        "sample_size": 454,
        "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5749,
        "empirical_weight": 0.5,
        "blended_confidence": 0.5175
      },
      "confidence_governor": {
        "applied": true,
        "policy": "align_to_calibrated_probability_v2",
        "raw_confidence": 0.5175,
        "final_confidence": 0.5555,
        "calibrated_pick_probability": 0.5555,
        "shrinkage_weight": 0.975212,
        "hard_maximum": 0.9,
        "confidence_floor": 0.505,
        "score_gap": 0.1,
        "calibration_sample_size": 454,
        "calibration_empirical_hit_rate": 0.5749,
        "calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.572,
        "calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.3398,
        "reasons": [
          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability"
        ],
        "score_coherence": {
          "policy": "probability_follows_published_score_v1",
          "published_score": {
            "away_runs": 3,
            "home_runs": 4
          },
          "margin": 1,
          "probability_before": 0.555452,
          "margin_implied_home_probability": 0.574033,
          "shrinkage_weight": 0.975212,
          "side_flipped": false,
          "applied": false,
          "magnitude_pull_suppressed": true,
          "probability_after": 0.555452,
          "aligned_pick_probability": 0.555452
        },
        "starter_experience": {
          "applied": false,
          "min_starter_games": 26,
          "shrink_factor": 1.0
        }
      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
        "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
        "available": true,
        "sample_size": 5,
        "sample_weight": 0.0577,
        "home_net_margin": 16.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 16.0,
        "home_average_margin": 3.2,
        "home_run_delta": 0.0923,
        "away_run_delta": -0.0923,
        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": 15.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 7.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": -6.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 1.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": -1.0
          }
        ],
        "adaptive_parameters": {
          "h2h.history_limit": 5,
          "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
          "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
          "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
        }
      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
        "applied": false,
        "home": {
          "team": "NYY",
          "games": 161,
          "wins": 93,
          "losses": 68,
          "win_pct": 0.577639751552795,
          "runs_scored": 739,
          "runs_allowed": 601,
          "run_differential": 138,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.8571428571428571,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "BOS",
          "games": 162,
          "wins": 87,
          "losses": 75,
          "win_pct": 0.5370370370370371,
          "runs_scored": 689,
          "runs_allowed": 611,
          "run_differential": 78,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.48148148148148145,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 0.3757,
        "win_pct_edge": 0.0406,
        "quality_edge": 0.3398,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.4366,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": 0.4366,
          "recent_quality_edge": 0.16,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": 0.3398
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 0.0,
        "reason": "season quality edge below action threshold"
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
            "home_runs": 3,
            "away_runs": 3,
            "probability": 0.03080356741992327
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 3,
            "away_runs": 2,
            "probability": 0.029202323400046356
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 2,
            "away_runs": 3,
            "probability": 0.028794019565579903
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 3,
            "probability": 0.02810737262015647
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 3,
            "away_runs": 4,
            "probability": 0.027558723406502252
          }
        ],
        "home_distribution": {
          "0": 0.08816708354038616,
          "1": 0.12964750575691045,
          "2": 0.16260817349381648,
          "3": 0.17395667262916503,
          "4": 0.15873047919079936,
          "5": 0.12353786099019204,
          "6": 0.0820087783267198,
          "7": 0.04643453726499648,
          "8": 0.022425514543925603,
          "9": 0.00923770790616652,
          "10": 0.0032456863569222446
        },
        "away_distribution": {
          "0": 0.09205184686385079,
          "1": 0.13497930106449507,
          "2": 0.16787124609067963,
          "3": 0.17707609000770713,
          "4": 0.15842291640775982,
          "5": 0.12021275618472826,
          "6": 0.07736732400909441,
          "7": 0.042231748947340705,
          "8": 0.019552172913574202,
          "9": 0.007677599648441272,
          "10": 0.0025569978623288174
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.760195497285993,
      "home_runs": 5.470883753518859,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260929_CHC@SD

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickSD

Published scoreCHC 4 - 5 SD

Final confidence50.8%

Calibrationraw 53.7% → blended 54.8%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.9% · weight 50.0% · n=684

H2H base featurehome net -29.0 · absolute 29.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.2355

Simulation variance2.25

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.239253839954954-4.327861830611672	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "SD",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.015792,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.507896,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.507896,
    "away_win_probability": 0.492104
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.015792,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "SD wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "CHC 4 - 5 SD",
    "confidence": 0.5078962025,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.536952,
    "sample_size": 684,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5585,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.547726,
    "published_confidence": 0.507896,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -29.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 29.0,
    "home_average_margin": -5.8,
    "home_run_delta": -0.1673,
    "away_run_delta": 0.1673,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -20.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -5.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.6358,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.508,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.2355
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.020697963498079945
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.019795431783525982
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.019598053542315363
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.019555521853491395
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.01930518335574106
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.058873711031276345,
      "1": 0.0868469837619334,
      "2": 0.11460806602509555,
      "3": 0.13530154149529186,
      "4": 0.1428951278787376,
      "5": 0.13500791013808305,
      "6": 0.11411116103411154,
      "7": 0.08628278408152955,
      "8": 0.058364301487223796,
      "9": 0.03531811779360204,
      "10": 0.019119429332457458,
      "11": 0.009259326890734294,
      "12": 0.0040115390499236535
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06106068951282485,
      "1": 0.08994423081620752,
      "2": 0.11818669732999297,
      "3": 0.13853118771358397,
      "4": 0.14484723031036068,
      "5": 0.13510036095928796,
      "6": 0.11240522518166372,
      "7": 0.08342575911423988,
      "8": 0.05523285731149256,
      "9": 0.03261959247231663,
      "10": 0.017184750362256623,
      "11": 0.008075912426132209,
      "12": 0.003385506489640405
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.25,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "CHC 4 - 5 SD",
      "winner": "SD"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "CHC 4 - 5 SD",
      "winner": "SD"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0325,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.158,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "SD",
      "model_winner": "SD",
      "simulation_winner": "SD",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 3,
        "published_winner": "SD",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667,
        "draw_majority_team": "SD",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.2355,
      "winner": "SD",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "SD",
    "display_confidence": 0.5079,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5601,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5079,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.2355,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.508,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0325,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.6667,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.6667,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 6,
        "median": 6,
        "max": 10,
        "range": 4
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-8133e99fc8d4e4c7",
      "config_hash": "sha256:1ad22b058ac7f786856b2afec11660ade914953b5b660a1d45855a0be03d5ccc",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-c1d5650d9262b3dc",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-27T09:06:54.240008+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 2.25,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
        "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
        "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
        "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
        "context.lineup_context_min": 0.8,
        "context.lineup_context_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
        "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
        "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
        "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
        "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
        "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
        "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
      }
    }
  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
      "config_id": "candidate-c1d5650d9262b3dc",
      "config_hash": "sha256:da7e1fc0092c8fca4370044eb58fa5897f6ef528f3b1de083f3bc7a60a53c065",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-982561b127534866",
      "parent_config_hash": "sha256:53760a5ddffc6f180dee92a59d27889f1cdba857749a59d2378ee233c5952253"
    },
    "changes": [
      {
        "parameter": "score.variance_multiplier",
        "old_value": 2.15,
        "new_value": 2.25,
        "risk_tier": "low",
        "evaluation_mode": "artifact_replay"
      }
    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
      "artifact_replay"
    ],
    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-30T01:36:26.998256+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-30T02:00:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.510929,
      "confidence": 0.510929,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "total_runs": 8
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
          "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
          "config_id": "candidate-8133e99fc8d4e4c7",
          "config_hash": "sha256:1ad22b058ac7f786856b2afec11660ade914953b5b660a1d45855a0be03d5ccc",
          "parent_config_id": "candidate-c1d5650d9262b3dc",
          "created_at_utc": "2026-09-27T09:06:54.240008+00:00",
          "parameters": {
            "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
            "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
            "confidence.base_cap": 0.56,
            "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
            "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
            "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
            "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
            "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
            "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
            "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
            "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
            "confidence.floor": 0.505,
            "score.variance_multiplier": 2.25,
            "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
            "recent.window_games": 10,
            "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
            "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
            "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
            "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
            "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
            "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
            "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
            "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
            "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
            "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
            "h2h.history_limit": 5,
            "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
            "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
            "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
            "simulation.allow_score": true,
            "player.model_weight": 0.5,
            "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
            "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
            "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
            "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
            "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
            "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
            "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
            "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
            "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
            "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
            "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
            "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
            "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
            "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
            "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
            "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
            "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
            "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
            "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
            "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
            "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
            "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
            "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
            "context.lineup_context_min": 0.8,
            "context.lineup_context_weight": 1.0,
            "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
            "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
            "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
            "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
            "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
            "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
            "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
            "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
            "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "candidate_prediction": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.511003,
      "confidence": 0.511003,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "total_runs": 8
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
          "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
          "config_id": "candidate-c1d5650d9262b3dc",
          "config_hash": "sha256:da7e1fc0092c8fca4370044eb58fa5897f6ef528f3b1de083f3bc7a60a53c065",
          "parent_config_id": "candidate-982561b127534866",
          "created_at_utc": "2026-09-24T09:06:53.755755+00:00",
          "parameters": {
            "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
            "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
            "confidence.base_cap": 0.56,
            "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
            "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
            "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
            "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
            "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
            "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
            "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
            "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
            "confidence.floor": 0.505,
            "score.variance_multiplier": 2.15,
            "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
            "recent.window_games": 10,
            "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
            "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
            "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
            "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
            "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
            "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
            "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
            "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
            "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
            "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
            "h2h.history_limit": 5,
            "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
            "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
            "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
            "simulation.allow_score": true,
            "player.model_weight": 0.5,
            "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
            "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
            "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
            "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
            "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
            "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
            "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
            "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
            "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
            "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
            "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
            "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
            "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
            "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
            "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
            "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
            "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
            "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
            "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
            "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
            "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
            "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
            "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
            "context.lineup_context_min": 0.8,
            "context.lineup_context_weight": 1.0,
            "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
            "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
            "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
            "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
            "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
            "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
            "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
            "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
            "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "diagnostics": {
      "confidence_calibration": {
        "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
        "applied": true,
        "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
        "raw_confidence": 0.536952,
        "sample_size": 684,
        "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5585,
        "empirical_weight": 0.5,
        "blended_confidence": 0.547726
      },
      "confidence_governor": {
        "applied": true,
        "policy": "align_to_calibrated_probability_v2",
        "raw_confidence": 0.53,
        "final_confidence": 0.511,
        "calibrated_pick_probability": 0.511,
        "shrinkage_weight": 0.983333,
        "hard_maximum": 0.9,
        "confidence_floor": 0.505,
        "score_gap": 0.1,
        "calibration_sample_size": 684,
        "calibration_empirical_hit_rate": 0.5585,
        "calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.557,
        "calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.2355,
        "reasons": [
          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability"
        ],
        "score_coherence": {
          "policy": "probability_follows_published_score_v1",
          "published_score": {
            "away_runs": 4,
            "home_runs": 5
          },
          "margin": 1,
          "probability_before": 0.511003,
          "margin_implied_home_probability": 0.574033,
          "shrinkage_weight": 0.983333,
          "side_flipped": false,
          "applied": false,
          "magnitude_pull_suppressed": true,
          "probability_after": 0.511003,
          "aligned_pick_probability": 0.511003
        },
        "starter_experience": {
          "applied": false,
          "min_starter_games": 22,
          "shrink_factor": 1.0
        }
      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
        "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
        "available": true,
        "sample_size": 5,
        "sample_weight": 0.0577,
        "home_net_margin": -29.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 29.0,
        "home_average_margin": -5.8,
        "home_run_delta": -0.1673,
        "away_run_delta": 0.1673,
        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": -20.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": -2.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": -1.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": -1.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": -5.0
          }
        ],
        "adaptive_parameters": {
          "h2h.history_limit": 5,
          "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
          "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
          "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
        }
      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
        "applied": false,
        "home": {
          "team": "SD",
          "games": 162,
          "wins": 91,
          "losses": 71,
          "win_pct": 0.5617283950617284,
          "runs_scored": 722,
          "runs_allowed": 681,
          "run_differential": 41,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.25308641975308643,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "CHC",
          "games": 162,
          "wins": 89,
          "losses": 73,
          "win_pct": 0.5493827160493827,
          "runs_scored": 850,
          "runs_allowed": 703,
          "run_differential": 147,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.9074074074074074,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": -0.6543,
        "win_pct_edge": 0.0123,
        "quality_edge": -0.2355,
        "season_quality_edge": -0.6358,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": -0.6358,
          "recent_quality_edge": 0.508,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "conflict",
          "blended_quality_edge": -0.2355
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 0.0,
        "reason": "season quality edge below action threshold"
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 4,
            "probability": 0.021439421022851974
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 3,
            "probability": 0.020462082322930637
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 3,
            "away_runs": 4,
            "probability": 0.02024861709366498
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 5,
            "away_runs": 4,
            "probability": 0.02020263198897398
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 5,
            "probability": 0.019932061515668835
          }
        ],
        "home_distribution": {
          "0": 0.05749874800983986,
          "1": 0.08636632281261225,
          "2": 0.11545365460933457,
          "3": 0.13735616447760865,
          "4": 0.14543396354909016,
          "5": 0.1370442252684153,
          "6": 0.11492985392045729,
          "7": 0.08577923802268098,
          "8": 0.05697820038169807,
          "9": 0.03368313354157165,
          "10": 0.017721213618920692,
          "11": 0.008297583838396056,
          "12": 0.003457697949374405
        },
        "away_distribution": {
          "0": 0.05969664918685154,
          "1": 0.08953345799219785,
          "2": 0.11915072864830861,
          "3": 0.1406967246411036,
          "4": 0.14741687910895213,
          "5": 0.1370523159051559,
          "6": 0.11305804857068887,
          "7": 0.08275467398251395,
          "8": 0.05374765485377716,
          "9": 0.030974367566464135,
          "10": 0.01583876504199622,
          "11": 0.007186478416250121,
          "12": 0.0028932560857397012
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.239253839954954,
      "home_runs": 4.327861830611672,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260929_CHW@HOU

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickCHW

Published scoreCHW 6 - 5 HOU

Final confidence53.0%

Calibrationraw 56.6% → blended 57.4%

Empirical signalhit rate 58.2% · weight 50.0% · n=433

H2H base featurehome net -4.0 · absolute 4.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.4495

Simulation variance2.25

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	5.177399116390809-3.2403201354327757	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-3	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	6-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	6-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	6-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	6-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	6-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "CHW",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": -0.06,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.47,
    "away_win_probability": 0.53
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.06,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "CHW wins 6-5",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "CHW 6 - 5 HOU",
    "confidence": 0.53,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.565874,
    "sample_size": 433,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.582,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.573937,
    "published_confidence": 0.53,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -4.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 4.0,
    "home_average_margin": -0.8,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0231,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0231,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -9.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.571,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.224,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.4495
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.015765283988507267
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.01514873228710994
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.015144035882937935
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.015027712817668066
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.014996300579097408
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04208965680009246,
      "1": 0.06275864662721392,
      "2": 0.08553199172880491,
      "3": 0.10654680512475424,
      "4": 0.12131349328703141,
      "5": 0.12625093882841287,
      "6": 0.12009279556551684,
      "7": 0.10441337252033131,
      "8": 0.08297592894220364,
      "9": 0.06027052207513303,
      "10": 0.04001424384047176,
      "11": 0.02428181275969323,
      "12": 0.013468040946391736,
      "13": 0.006827859579893872,
      "14": 0.0031638913740547527
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04071288035910323,
      "1": 0.06075990118465728,
      "2": 0.08302965036865727,
      "3": 0.10389156292371118,
      "4": 0.11903050351247026,
      "5": 0.12487260795687072,
      "6": 0.11995186747498275,
      "7": 0.10550614759663551,
      "8": 0.08497270389632763,
      "9": 0.06266312232817885,
      "10": 0.042313168147418374,
      "11": 0.0261619419229694,
      "12": 0.01481137340672792,
      "13": 0.007678061830258213,
      "14": 0.0036445070910315898
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.25,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "CHW 6 - 5 HOU",
      "winner": "CHW"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "CHW 6 - 5 HOU",
      "winner": "CHW"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.002,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.154,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "CHW",
      "model_winner": "CHW",
      "simulation_winner": "CHW",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 3,
        "published_winner": "CHW",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667,
        "draw_majority_team": "CHW",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.4495,
      "winner": "CHW",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "CHW",
    "display_confidence": 0.53,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5787,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.4495,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.224,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.002,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.6667,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.6667,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 1,
        "median": 6,
        "max": 10,
        "range": 9
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-8133e99fc8d4e4c7",
      "config_hash": "sha256:1ad22b058ac7f786856b2afec11660ade914953b5b660a1d45855a0be03d5ccc",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-c1d5650d9262b3dc",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-27T09:06:54.240008+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 2.25,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
        "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
        "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
        "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
        "context.lineup_context_min": 0.8,
        "context.lineup_context_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
        "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
        "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
        "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
        "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
        "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
        "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
      }
    }
  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
      "config_id": "candidate-c1d5650d9262b3dc",
      "config_hash": "sha256:da7e1fc0092c8fca4370044eb58fa5897f6ef528f3b1de083f3bc7a60a53c065",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-982561b127534866",
      "parent_config_hash": "sha256:53760a5ddffc6f180dee92a59d27889f1cdba857749a59d2378ee233c5952253"
    },
    "changes": [
      {
        "parameter": "score.variance_multiplier",
        "old_value": 2.15,
        "new_value": 2.25,
        "risk_tier": "low",
        "evaluation_mode": "artifact_replay"
      }
    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
      "artifact_replay"
    ],
    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-29T20:36:42.501920+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-29T21:00:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "away",
      "home_win_probability": 0.448712,
      "confidence": 0.551288,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "total_runs": 10
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
          "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
          "config_id": "candidate-8133e99fc8d4e4c7",
          "config_hash": "sha256:1ad22b058ac7f786856b2afec11660ade914953b5b660a1d45855a0be03d5ccc",
          "parent_config_id": "candidate-c1d5650d9262b3dc",
          "created_at_utc": "2026-09-27T09:06:54.240008+00:00",
          "parameters": {
            "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
            "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
            "confidence.base_cap": 0.56,
            "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
            "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
            "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
            "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
            "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
            "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
            "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
            "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
            "confidence.floor": 0.505,
            "score.variance_multiplier": 2.25,
            "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
            "recent.window_games": 10,
            "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
            "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
            "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
            "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
            "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
            "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
            "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
            "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
            "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
            "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
            "h2h.history_limit": 5,
            "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
            "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
            "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
            "simulation.allow_score": true,
            "player.model_weight": 0.5,
            "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
            "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
            "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
            "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
            "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
            "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
            "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
            "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
            "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
            "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
            "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
            "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
            "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
            "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
            "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
            "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
            "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
            "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
            "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
            "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
            "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
            "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
            "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
            "context.lineup_context_min": 0.8,
            "context.lineup_context_weight": 1.0,
            "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
            "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
            "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
            "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
            "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
            "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
            "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
            "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
            "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "candidate_prediction": {
      "predicted_winner": "away",
      "home_win_probability": 0.448639,
      "confidence": 0.551361,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "total_runs": 10
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
          "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
          "config_id": "candidate-c1d5650d9262b3dc",
          "config_hash": "sha256:da7e1fc0092c8fca4370044eb58fa5897f6ef528f3b1de083f3bc7a60a53c065",
          "parent_config_id": "candidate-982561b127534866",
          "created_at_utc": "2026-09-24T09:06:53.755755+00:00",
          "parameters": {
            "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
            "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
            "confidence.base_cap": 0.56,
            "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
            "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
            "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
            "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
            "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
            "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
            "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
            "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
            "confidence.floor": 0.505,
            "score.variance_multiplier": 2.15,
            "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
            "recent.window_games": 10,
            "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
            "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
            "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
            "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
            "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
            "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
            "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
            "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
            "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
            "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
            "h2h.history_limit": 5,
            "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
            "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
            "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
            "simulation.allow_score": true,
            "player.model_weight": 0.5,
            "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
            "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
            "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
            "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
            "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
            "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
            "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
            "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
            "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
            "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
            "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
            "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
            "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
            "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
            "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
            "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
            "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
            "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
            "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
            "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
            "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
            "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
            "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
            "context.lineup_context_min": 0.8,
            "context.lineup_context_weight": 1.0,
            "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
            "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
            "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
            "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
            "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
            "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
            "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
            "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
            "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "diagnostics": {
      "confidence_calibration": {
        "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
        "applied": true,
        "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
        "raw_confidence": 0.565874,
        "sample_size": 433,
        "empirical_hit_rate": 0.582,
        "empirical_weight": 0.5,
        "blended_confidence": 0.573937
      },
      "confidence_governor": {
        "applied": true,
        "policy": "align_to_calibrated_probability_v2",
        "raw_confidence": 0.53,
        "final_confidence": 0.5514,
        "calibrated_pick_probability": 0.5514,
        "shrinkage_weight": 0.974058,
        "hard_maximum": 0.9,
        "confidence_floor": 0.505,
        "score_gap": 0.1,
        "calibration_sample_size": 433,
        "calibration_empirical_hit_rate": 0.582,
        "calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.5787,
        "calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.4495,
        "reasons": [
          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability"
        ],
        "score_coherence": {
          "policy": "probability_follows_published_score_v1",
          "published_score": {
            "away_runs": 6,
            "home_runs": 5
          },
          "margin": -1,
          "probability_before": 0.448639,
          "margin_implied_home_probability": 0.425967,
          "shrinkage_weight": 0.974058,
          "side_flipped": false,
          "applied": false,
          "magnitude_pull_suppressed": true,
          "probability_after": 0.448639,
          "aligned_pick_probability": 0.551361
        },
        "starter_experience": {
          "applied": false,
          "min_starter_games": 18,
          "shrink_factor": 1.0
        }
      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
        "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
        "available": true,
        "sample_size": 5,
        "sample_weight": 0.0577,
        "home_net_margin": -4.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 4.0,
        "home_average_margin": -0.8,
        "home_run_delta": -0.0231,
        "away_run_delta": 0.0231,
        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": 4.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 2.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": -4.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 3.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": -9.0
          }
        ],
        "adaptive_parameters": {
          "h2h.history_limit": 5,
          "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
          "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
          "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
        }
      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
        "applied": false,
        "home": {
          "team": "HOU",
          "games": 162,
          "wins": 81,
          "losses": 81,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "runs_scored": 734,
          "runs_allowed": 766,
          "run_differential": -32,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.19753086419753085,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "CHW",
          "games": 162,
          "wins": 84,
          "losses": 78,
          "win_pct": 0.5185185185185185,
          "runs_scored": 776,
          "runs_allowed": 720,
          "run_differential": 56,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.345679012345679,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": -0.5432,
        "win_pct_edge": -0.0185,
        "quality_edge": -0.4495,
        "season_quality_edge": -0.571,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": -0.571,
          "recent_quality_edge": -0.224,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": -0.4495
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 0.0,
        "reason": "season quality edge below action threshold"
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
            "home_runs": 5,
            "away_runs": 5,
            "probability": 0.016352235789670787
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 5,
            "probability": 0.01568360137871979
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 5,
            "away_runs": 6,
            "probability": 0.015678513041369434
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 5,
            "away_runs": 4,
            "probability": 0.015552505841043382
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 6,
            "away_runs": 5,
            "probability": 0.01551848623302295
          }
        ],
        "home_distribution": {
          "0": 0.04073093285971675,
          "1": 0.06187172506974329,
          "2": 0.08554624718394939,
          "3": 0.1076590563786183,
          "4": 0.1233221378659568,
          "5": 0.12857969466162386,
          "6": 0.12202381662776135,
          "7": 0.1054041446688627,
          "8": 0.08287272920558561,
          "9": 0.05930706933252419,
          "10": 0.038631551951947514,
          "11": 0.02290438928638292,
          "12": 0.012360503064600252,
          "13": 0.006071478285579534,
          "14": 0.002714523557147545
        },
        "away_distribution": {
          "0": 0.03935777548561257,
          "1": 0.0598416361224573,
          "2": 0.08297119348799825,
          "3": 0.10490644701160153,
          "4": 0.12095615782859075,
          "5": 0.1271758797740504,
          "6": 0.12193615082560057,
          "7": 0.10661324824311509,
          "8": 0.08500428770928661,
          "9": 0.0618046929032335,
          "10": 0.040978214956681844,
          "11": 0.024776250474812852,
          "12": 0.01366057854125531,
          "13": 0.006868368147939428,
          "14": 0.003149118487763897
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 5.177399116390809,
      "home_runs": 3.2403201354327757,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260929_PHI@ATL

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickATL

Published scorePHI 2 - 3 ATL

Final confidence50.5%

Calibrationraw 51.0% → blended 52.6%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.3% · weight 50.0% · n=586

H2H base featurehome net 6.0 · absolute 6.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.559

Simulation variance2.25

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.598908535356568-4.614426912949791	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	2-3	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	2-3	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	2-3	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	2-3	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	2-3	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "ATL",
    "away_runs": 2,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "confidence": 0.010788,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.505394,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.505394,
    "away_win_probability": 0.494606
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.010788,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "ATL wins 3-2",
    "away_runs": 2,
    "home_runs": 3
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 2,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "predicted_score_text": "PHI 2 - 3 ATL",
    "confidence": 0.505394185,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5101,
    "sample_size": 586,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5427,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.5264,
    "published_confidence": 0.505394,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 6.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 6.0,
    "home_average_margin": 1.2,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0346,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0346,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 10.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.679,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.336,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.559
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.03663447650385173
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.03605874295736209
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03534856298176649
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.034793038364766285
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 1,
        "probability": 0.031332353530374016
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.11184538300327683,
      "1": 0.1590955364660151,
      "2": 0.18825141918458108,
      "3": 0.18529293123710208,
      "4": 0.15171194410611147,
      "5": 0.10332871411405359,
      "6": 0.05854133272542454,
      "7": 0.02758954350536477,
      "8": 0.010816001865673063,
      "9": 0.003527193792397572
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.11747422505407185,
      "1": 0.1664388702411457,
      "2": 0.19460398578951227,
      "3": 0.18777315536254796,
      "4": 0.1495202721637699,
      "5": 0.09825427488601585,
      "6": 0.05328287281387508,
      "7": 0.023845619578403726,
      "8": 0.008806724110657731
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.25,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "PHI 2 - 3 ATL",
      "winner": "ATL"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "PHI 2 - 3 ATL",
      "winner": "ATL"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0494,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.406,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "winner": "ATL",
      "model_winner": "ATL",
      "simulation_winner": "ATL",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "ATL",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "ATL",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 2,
        "home_runs": 3
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 2,
        "home_runs": 3
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.559,
      "winner": "ATL",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 2,
        "home_runs": 3,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "ATL",
    "display_confidence": 0.5054,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6436,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5054,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.559,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.336,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0494,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.5,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 5,
        "median": 10,
        "max": 10,
        "range": 5
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-8133e99fc8d4e4c7",
      "config_hash": "sha256:1ad22b058ac7f786856b2afec11660ade914953b5b660a1d45855a0be03d5ccc",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-c1d5650d9262b3dc",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-27T09:06:54.240008+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 2.25,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
        "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
        "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
        "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
        "context.lineup_context_min": 0.8,
        "context.lineup_context_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
        "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
        "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
        "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
        "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
        "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
        "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
      }
    }
  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
      "config_id": "candidate-c1d5650d9262b3dc",
      "config_hash": "sha256:da7e1fc0092c8fca4370044eb58fa5897f6ef528f3b1de083f3bc7a60a53c065",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-982561b127534866",
      "parent_config_hash": "sha256:53760a5ddffc6f180dee92a59d27889f1cdba857749a59d2378ee233c5952253"
    },
    "changes": [
      {
        "parameter": "score.variance_multiplier",
        "old_value": 2.15,
        "new_value": 2.25,
        "risk_tier": "low",
        "evaluation_mode": "artifact_replay"
      }
    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
      "artifact_replay"
    ],
    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-29T17:36:48.045582+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.507466,
      "confidence": 0.507466,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "total_runs": 5
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
          "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
          "config_id": "candidate-8133e99fc8d4e4c7",
          "config_hash": "sha256:1ad22b058ac7f786856b2afec11660ade914953b5b660a1d45855a0be03d5ccc",
          "parent_config_id": "candidate-c1d5650d9262b3dc",
          "created_at_utc": "2026-09-27T09:06:54.240008+00:00",
          "parameters": {
            "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
            "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
            "confidence.base_cap": 0.56,
            "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
            "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
            "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
            "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
            "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
            "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
            "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
            "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
            "confidence.floor": 0.505,
            "score.variance_multiplier": 2.25,
            "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
            "recent.window_games": 10,
            "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
            "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
            "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
            "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
            "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
            "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
            "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
            "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
            "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
            "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
            "h2h.history_limit": 5,
            "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
            "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
            "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
            "simulation.allow_score": true,
            "player.model_weight": 0.5,
            "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
            "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
            "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
            "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
            "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
            "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
            "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
            "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
            "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
            "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
            "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
            "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
            "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
            "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
            "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
            "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
            "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
            "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
            "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
            "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
            "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
            "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
            "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
            "context.lineup_context_min": 0.8,
            "context.lineup_context_weight": 1.0,
            "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
            "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
            "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
            "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
            "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
            "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
            "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
            "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
            "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "candidate_prediction": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.50754,
      "confidence": 0.50754,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "total_runs": 5
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
          "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
          "config_id": "candidate-c1d5650d9262b3dc",
          "config_hash": "sha256:da7e1fc0092c8fca4370044eb58fa5897f6ef528f3b1de083f3bc7a60a53c065",
          "parent_config_id": "candidate-982561b127534866",
          "created_at_utc": "2026-09-24T09:06:53.755755+00:00",
          "parameters": {
            "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
            "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
            "confidence.base_cap": 0.56,
            "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
            "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
            "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
            "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
            "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
            "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
            "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
            "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
            "confidence.floor": 0.505,
            "score.variance_multiplier": 2.15,
            "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
            "recent.window_games": 10,
            "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
            "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
            "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
            "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
            "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
            "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
            "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
            "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
            "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
            "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
            "h2h.history_limit": 5,
            "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
            "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
            "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
            "simulation.allow_score": true,
            "player.model_weight": 0.5,
            "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
            "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
            "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
            "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
            "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
            "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
            "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
            "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
            "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
            "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
            "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
            "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
            "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
            "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
            "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
            "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
            "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
            "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
            "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
            "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
            "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
            "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
            "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
            "context.lineup_context_min": 0.8,
            "context.lineup_context_weight": 1.0,
            "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
            "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
            "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
            "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
            "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
            "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
            "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
            "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
            "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "diagnostics": {
      "confidence_calibration": {
        "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
        "applied": true,
        "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
        "raw_confidence": 0.5101,
        "sample_size": 586,
        "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5427,
        "empirical_weight": 0.5,
        "blended_confidence": 0.5264
      },
      "confidence_governor": {
        "applied": true,
        "policy": "align_to_calibrated_probability_v2",
        "raw_confidence": 0.5264,
        "final_confidence": 0.5075,
        "calibrated_pick_probability": 0.5075,
        "shrinkage_weight": 0.980629,
        "hard_maximum": 0.9,
        "confidence_floor": 0.505,
        "score_gap": 0.1,
        "calibration_sample_size": 586,
        "calibration_empirical_hit_rate": 0.5427,
        "calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.5414,
        "calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.559,
        "reasons": [
          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability"
        ],
        "score_coherence": {
          "policy": "probability_follows_published_score_v1",
          "published_score": {
            "away_runs": 2,
            "home_runs": 3
          },
          "margin": 1,
          "probability_before": 0.50754,
          "margin_implied_home_probability": 0.574033,
          "shrinkage_weight": 0.980629,
          "side_flipped": false,
          "applied": false,
          "magnitude_pull_suppressed": true,
          "probability_after": 0.50754,
          "aligned_pick_probability": 0.50754
        },
        "starter_experience": {
          "applied": false,
          "min_starter_games": 27,
          "shrink_factor": 1.0
        }
      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
        "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
        "available": true,
        "sample_size": 5,
        "sample_weight": 0.0577,
        "home_net_margin": 6.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 6.0,
        "home_average_margin": 1.2,
        "home_run_delta": 0.0346,
        "away_run_delta": -0.0346,
        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": -5.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 10.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 1.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": -1.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 1.0
          }
        ],
        "adaptive_parameters": {
          "h2h.history_limit": 5,
          "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
          "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
          "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
        }
      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "home": {
          "team": "ATL",
          "games": 162,
          "wins": 94,
          "losses": 68,
          "win_pct": 0.5802469135802469,
          "runs_scored": 742,
          "runs_allowed": 626,
          "run_differential": 116,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.7160493827160493,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "PHI",
          "games": 162,
          "wins": 88,
          "losses": 74,
          "win_pct": 0.5432098765432098,
          "runs_scored": 713,
          "runs_allowed": 698,
          "run_differential": 15,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.09259259259259259,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 0.6235,
        "win_pct_edge": 0.037,
        "quality_edge": 0.559,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.679,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": 0.679,
          "recent_quality_edge": 0.336,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": 0.559
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 0.2348,
        "reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
          "adjustment": 0.2348,
          "cap": 1.4,
          "scale": 0.42,
          "quality_edge": 0.559,
          "season_quality_edge": 0.679,
          "recent_alignment": "aligned",
          "large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": false,
          "method": "standard_bounded_season_recent_adjustment"
        },
        "adjusted_score": {
          "away_runs": 1.727,
          "home_runs": 3.001,
          "home_win_probability": 0.6083
        }
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
            "home_runs": 2,
            "away_runs": 2,
            "probability": 0.03792771075424379
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 3,
            "away_runs": 2,
            "probability": 0.037304158749427906
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 2,
            "away_runs": 3,
            "probability": 0.036535632107418115
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 3,
            "away_runs": 3,
            "probability": 0.03593496662577559
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 2,
            "away_runs": 1,
            "probability": 0.03220339505517633
          }
        ],
        "home_distribution": {
          "0": 0.11125393579736949,
          "1": 0.16086940467936856,
          "2": 0.19184602281779034,
          "3": 0.18869197081293523,
          "4": 0.1530647955033951,
          "5": 0.10240436889731304,
          "6": 0.05650448617293657,
          "7": 0.02571394136831569,
          "8": 0.00965107395057598
        },
        "away_distribution": {
          "0": 0.11657325247272365,
          "1": 0.16786063418037162,
          "2": 0.19769870752163782,
          "3": 0.19044247866487476,
          "4": 0.15004752812130884,
          "5": 0.09669385830987554,
          "6": 0.050965226579995436,
          "7": 0.021971213964366573,
          "8": 0.0077471001848457045
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.598908535356568,
      "home_runs": 4.614426912949791,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

Every reviewed game

Date	Game	Pick	Final confidence	Raw confidence	Empirical hit rate	Empirical weight	Pred A-H	Actual A-H	Result	Largest recorded movement	Pipeline	Roadmap signals
20260929	20260929_BOS@NYY	NYY	54.0%	46.0%	57.5%	50.0%	2.0-4.0	0-9	hit	Embedded Savant Run Environment (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.4601, "sample_size": 454, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5749, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.5175, "published_confidence": 0.54, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 16.0, "absolute_net_margin": 16.0, "home_average_margin": 3.2, "home_run_delta": 0.0923, "away_run_delta": -0.0923, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 15.0 }, { "home_margin": 7.0 }, { "home_margin": -6.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.4366, "recent_quality_edge": 0.16, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.3398 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.02977999552619565 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.028299020330958595 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.027920813842935526 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.027284242285591977 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.026775108419609717 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.08934411812353953, "1": 0.12914603979535405, "2": 0.1603566349998798, "3": 0.17103440822877292, "4": 0.1567006358070743, "5": 0.1233243235615736, "6": 0.08337146626985006, "7": 0.04841465609872311, "8": 0.024150547298842237, "9": 0.01034827156487325, "10": 0.0038088982515172886 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.09318405526785921, "1": 0.13433465606203532, "2": 0.16545805387361748, "3": 0.17411698519962368, "4": 0.15654808115449936, "5": 0.12025627343088624, "6": 0.07892618611896245, "7": 0.04425760169079799, "8": 0.02120352259904954, "9": 0.00867923688573888, "10": 0.0030353477169295655 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.25, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "BOS 2 - 4 NYY", "winner": "NYY" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "BOS 2 - 4 NYY", "winner": "NYY" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0121, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.23, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "NYY", "model_winner": "NYY", "simulation_winner": "NYY", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "NYY", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5, "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": 0.3398, "winner": "NYY", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260929	20260929_CHC@SD	SD	50.8%	53.7%	55.9%	50.0%	4.0-5.0	0-8	hit	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.536952, "sample_size": 684, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5585, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.547726, "published_confidence": 0.507896, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -29.0, "absolute_net_margin": 29.0, "home_average_margin": -5.8, "home_run_delta": -0.1673, "away_run_delta": 0.1673, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -20.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -5.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.6358, "recent_quality_edge": 0.508, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": -0.2355 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.020697963498079945 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.019795431783525982 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.019598053542315363 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.019555521853491395 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01930518335574106 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.058873711031276345, "1": 0.0868469837619334, "2": 0.11460806602509555, "3": 0.13530154149529186, "4": 0.1428951278787376, "5": 0.13500791013808305, "6": 0.11411116103411154, "7": 0.08628278408152955, "8": 0.058364301487223796, "9": 0.03531811779360204, "10": 0.019119429332457458, "11": 0.009259326890734294, "12": 0.0040115390499236535 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.06106068951282485, "1": 0.08994423081620752, "2": 0.11818669732999297, "3": 0.13853118771358397, "4": 0.14484723031036068, "5": 0.13510036095928796, "6": 0.11240522518166372, "7": 0.08342575911423988, "8": 0.05523285731149256, "9": 0.03261959247231663, "10": 0.017184750362256623, "11": 0.008075912426132209, "12": 0.003385506489640405 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.25, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "CHC 4 - 5 SD", "winner": "SD" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "CHC 4 - 5 SD", "winner": "SD" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0325, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.158, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "SD", "model_winner": "SD", "simulation_winner": "SD", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "SD", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667, "draw_majority_team": "SD", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": -0.2355, "winner": "SD", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260929	20260929_CHW@HOU	CHW	53.0%	56.6%	58.2%	50.0%	6.0-5.0	6-3	hit	Enhanced Prediction (-1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.565874, "sample_size": 433, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.582, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.573937, "published_confidence": 0.53, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -4.0, "absolute_net_margin": 4.0, "home_average_margin": -0.8, "home_run_delta": -0.0231, "away_run_delta": 0.0231, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 4.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": -4.0 }, { "home_margin": 3.0 }, { "home_margin": -9.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.571, "recent_quality_edge": -0.224, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.4495 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.015765283988507267 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01514873228710994 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.015144035882937935 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.015027712817668066 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.014996300579097408 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.04208965680009246, "1": 0.06275864662721392, "2": 0.08553199172880491, "3": 0.10654680512475424, "4": 0.12131349328703141, "5": 0.12625093882841287, "6": 0.12009279556551684, "7": 0.10441337252033131, "8": 0.08297592894220364, "9": 0.06027052207513303, "10": 0.04001424384047176, "11": 0.02428181275969323, "12": 0.013468040946391736, "13": 0.006827859579893872, "14": 0.0031638913740547527 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.04071288035910323, "1": 0.06075990118465728, "2": 0.08302965036865727, "3": 0.10389156292371118, "4": 0.11903050351247026, "5": 0.12487260795687072, "6": 0.11995186747498275, "7": 0.10550614759663551, "8": 0.08497270389632763, "9": 0.06266312232817885, "10": 0.042313168147418374, "11": 0.0261619419229694, "12": 0.01481137340672792, "13": 0.007678061830258213, "14": 0.0036445070910315898 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.25, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "CHW 6 - 5 HOU", "winner": "CHW" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "CHW 6 - 5 HOU", "winner": "CHW" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.002, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.154, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "CHW", "model_winner": "CHW", "simulation_winner": "CHW", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "CHW", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667, "draw_majority_team": "CHW", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.4495, "winner": "CHW", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260929	20260929_PHI@ATL	ATL	50.5%	51.0%	54.3%	50.0%	2.0-3.0	3-5	hit	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.5101, "sample_size": 586, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5427, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.5264, "published_confidence": 0.505394, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 6.0, "absolute_net_margin": 6.0, "home_average_margin": 1.2, "home_run_delta": 0.0346, "away_run_delta": -0.0346, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -5.0 }, { "home_margin": 10.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.679, "recent_quality_edge": 0.336, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.559 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.03663447650385173 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.03605874295736209 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.03534856298176649 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.034793038364766285 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 1, "probability": 0.031332353530374016 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.11184538300327683, "1": 0.1590955364660151, "2": 0.18825141918458108, "3": 0.18529293123710208, "4": 0.15171194410611147, "5": 0.10332871411405359, "6": 0.05854133272542454, "7": 0.02758954350536477, "8": 0.010816001865673063, "9": 0.003527193792397572 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.11747422505407185, "1": 0.1664388702411457, "2": 0.19460398578951227, "3": 0.18777315536254796, "4": 0.1495202721637699, "5": 0.09825427488601585, "6": 0.05328287281387508, "7": 0.023845619578403726, "8": 0.008806724110657731 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.25, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "PHI 2 - 3 ATL", "winner": "ATL" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "PHI 2 - 3 ATL", "winner": "ATL" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0494, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.406, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 3, "winner": "ATL", "model_winner": "ATL", "simulation_winner": "ATL", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "ATL", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "ATL", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 3 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 3 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.559, "winner": "ATL", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 3, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }

Starting-pitcher component quality

H	{ "mae": 2.375, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 1.875 }
R	{ "mae": 1.25, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.75 }
ER	{ "mae": 1.125, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.875 }
BB	{ "mae": 1.375, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.125 }
SO	{ "mae": 2.625, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 1.375 }
HR	{ "mae": 0.625, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.625 }
IP_outs	{ "mae_outs": 4.75, "mae_innings": 1.5833, "bias_outs": 3.5 }

IP error is measured in outs. No single-outing ERA is used; ER and workload are compared directly.

Date

Game

Side

Pred starter

Actual starter

Match

Pred IP

Actual IP

Δ outs

Pred ER

Actual ER

Δ ER

H P/A

BB P/A

SO P/A

All context

20260929

20260929_BOS@NYY

away

Payton Tolle

True

5.2

4.2

-3

-1

4/5

3/1

7/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.0269058295964126,
      "WHIP": 1.0964125560538118,
      "IP": 148.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 26,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.718,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.733,
      "last_start_IP": 5.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.7976,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9322,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0514,
      "walk_factor": 0.948,
      "homer_factor": 0.9104,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 28.4,
      "bb_percent": 6.6,
      "woba": 0.285,
      "xwoba": 0.255,
      "barrel_percent": 6.0,
      "hard_hit_percent": 34.5,
      "whiff_percent": 27.9
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 43,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 26.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8387,
        "prior_weight": 0.1613
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "801139",
      "report_date": "20260929",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 26,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 28.2,
            "ER": 9.0,
            "R": 9.0,
            "H": 26.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 37.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 120.0,
            "Pitches": 471.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 1.8,
            "H": 5.2,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 7.4,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 24.0,
            "Pitches": 94.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.8256,
            "WHIP": 1.1512,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.31395,
            "H_per_IP": 0.90698,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.24419,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.2907,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.06977
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 59.0,
            "ER": 17.0,
            "R": 17.0,
            "H": 50.0,
            "BB": 14.0,
            "SO": 75.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 236.0,
            "Pitches": 922.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.7,
            "R": 1.7,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 7.5,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 23.6,
            "Pitches": 92.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.5932,
            "WHIP": 1.0847,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.28814,
            "H_per_IP": 0.84746,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.23729,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.27119,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10169
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 26,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 148.2,
            "ER": 50.0,
            "R": 54.0,
            "H": 123.0,
            "BB": 40.0,
            "SO": 171.0,
            "HR": 15.0,
            "BF": 603.0,
            "Pitches": 2282.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 1.9231,
            "R": 2.0769,
            "H": 4.7308,
            "BB": 1.5385,
            "SO": 6.5769,
            "HR": 0.5769,
            "BF": 23.1923,
            "Pitches": 87.7692
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.0269,
            "WHIP": 1.0964,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.33632,
            "H_per_IP": 0.82735,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.26906,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.15022,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1009
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 1.973,
        "predicted_H": 5.123,
        "predicted_BB": 1.545,
        "predicted_SO": 6.941,
        "predicted_HR": 0.56,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.0799,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1567
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4181,
      "form_weight": 0.5819,
      "form_reliability": 0.8387,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 26.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8387,
        "prior_weight": 0.1613
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.973,
          "final": 1.9843,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 5.123,
          "final": 4.6534,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 1.545,
          "final": 2.1534,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 6.941,
          "final": 6.9657,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.56,
          "final": 0.744,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.0799,
          "final": 3.0799,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1567,
          "final": 1.1567,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 59.0,
        "ER": 17,
        "H": 50,
        "BB": 14,
        "SO": 75,
        "HR": 6,
        "ERA": 2.5932203389830506,
        "WHIP": 1.0847457627118642,
        "K9": 11.440677966101694,
        "HR9": 0.9152542372881355,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 5,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-22T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.7792963310675082,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 7.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 26.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8387,
          "prior_weight": 0.1613
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.2,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 4,
          "predicted_BB": 3,
          "predicted_SO": 7,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "801139",
      "player_name": "Payton Tolle",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "BOS",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.2,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 7.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "BOS",
        "games": 162,
        "wins": 87,
        "losses": 75,
        "win_pct": 0.537,
        "runs_scored": 689.0,
        "runs_allowed": 611.0,
        "run_differential": 78.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.4815,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.2531,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7716,
        "offense_index": 0.9463,
        "defense_index": 1.1917,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 2.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.5,
          "run_differential": -4.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0904
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "NYY",
        "games": 161,
        "wins": 93,
        "losses": 68,
        "win_pct": 0.5776,
        "runs_scored": 739.0,
        "runs_allowed": 601.0,
        "run_differential": 138.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.8571,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5901,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7329,
        "offense_index": 1.0213,
        "defense_index": 1.204,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
          "run_differential": 1.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1708
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0804,
        "offense_edge": -0.0537,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0213,
        "defense_strength": 0.1917,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.204,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0017,
        "run_prevention": 0.9883,
        "strikeout": 0.9959
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "801139",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "801139",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 570.0,
            "k_percent": 28.4,
            "bb_percent": 6.6,
            "woba": 0.285,
            "xwoba": 0.255,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 30.6,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.0,
            "hard_hit_percent": 34.5,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.2521,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.4995,
            "whiff_percent": 27.9,
            "swing_percent": 55.1
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.1,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6329,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.9357,
            "command_and_miss": 0.67,
            "regression_edge": 0.8571,
            "xwoba_edge": 1.6286,
            "barrel_edge": 0.2667,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.4857,
            "whiff_edge": 0.3857,
            "bb_edge": 0.65,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.1718
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "801139",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 95,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 95,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 92.93252132522656,
              "release_spin_rate": 2264.4127469236832,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 95,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 92.93252132522656,
                "release_spin_rate": 2264.4127469236832,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 92.9325,
              "release_spin_rate": 2264.4127,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.1718,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 1.2273,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.7976,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9322,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0514,
          "walk_factor": 0.948,
          "homer_factor": 0.9104,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.03,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "801139",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9322,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9322,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.948,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9104,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 1.0514,
            "adjusted": 7
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 24,
      "Pitches": 103,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260929_BOS@NYY.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260929

20260929_BOS@NYY

home

Cam Schlittler

True

6.0

6.1

1/2

2/1

9/10

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 1.9518072289156627,
      "WHIP": 0.919104991394148,
      "IP": 193.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 33,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.869,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.0,
      "last_start_IP": 3.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.7134,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9394,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0771,
      "walk_factor": 0.944,
      "homer_factor": 0.9612,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 31.4,
      "bb_percent": 6.4,
      "woba": 0.243,
      "xwoba": 0.262,
      "barrel_percent": 7.3,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.3,
      "whiff_percent": 29.4
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 2,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 33.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8684,
        "prior_weight": 0.1316
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "693645",
      "report_date": "20260929",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 33,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 30.0,
            "ER": 4.0,
            "R": 7.0,
            "H": 12.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 38.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 110.0,
            "Pitches": 457.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 0.8,
            "R": 1.4,
            "H": 2.4,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 7.6,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 22.0,
            "Pitches": 91.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.2,
            "WHIP": 0.6333,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.13333,
            "H_per_IP": 0.4,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.23333,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.26667,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.06667
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 57.0,
            "ER": 11.0,
            "R": 14.0,
            "H": 31.0,
            "BB": 23.0,
            "SO": 74.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 223.0,
            "Pitches": 931.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 1.1,
            "R": 1.4,
            "H": 3.1,
            "BB": 2.3,
            "SO": 7.4,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 22.3,
            "Pitches": 93.1
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.7368,
            "WHIP": 0.9474,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.19298,
            "H_per_IP": 0.54386,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.40351,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.29825,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07018
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 33,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 193.2,
            "ER": 42.0,
            "R": 52.0,
            "H": 129.0,
            "BB": 49.0,
            "SO": 239.0,
            "HR": 16.0,
            "BF": 761.0,
            "Pitches": 3041.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.2727,
            "R": 1.5758,
            "H": 3.9091,
            "BB": 1.4848,
            "SO": 7.2424,
            "HR": 0.4848,
            "BF": 23.0606,
            "Pitches": 92.1515
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.9518,
            "WHIP": 0.9191,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.21687,
            "H_per_IP": 0.66609,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.25301,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.23408,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08262
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.0,
        "predicted_ER": 1.274,
        "predicted_H": 3.344,
        "predicted_BB": 1.814,
        "predicted_SO": 7.238,
        "predicted_HR": 0.48,
        "predicted_ERA": 1.9433,
        "predicted_WHIP": 0.8744
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4056,
      "form_weight": 0.5944,
      "form_reliability": 0.8684,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 33.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8684,
        "prior_weight": 0.1316
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 6.0,
          "final": 6.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.274,
          "final": 0.7573,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 3.344,
          "final": 2.3933,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.814,
          "final": 1.8894,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 9.0,
          "form": 7.238,
          "final": 7.9527,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.48,
          "final": 0.2853,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.9433,
          "final": 1.9433,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 0.8744,
          "final": 0.8744,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 57.0,
        "ER": 11,
        "H": 31,
        "BB": 23,
        "SO": 74,
        "HR": 4,
        "ERA": 1.736842105263158,
        "WHIP": 0.9473684210526315,
        "K9": 11.68421052631579,
        "HR9": 0.631578947368421,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 6,
        "dominant_form": true,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-24T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.6904572300778384,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 0.0,
          "predicted_H": 1.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 9.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 33.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8684,
          "prior_weight": 0.1316
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 0,
          "predicted_H": 1,
          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 9,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "693645",
      "player_name": "Cam Schlittler",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "NYY",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 1.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 9.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 1.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 9.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 9.0,
              "after": 9.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 1.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_R": 0.0,
            "predicted_SO": 9.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 9.0,
              "after": 9.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 9.0,
            "after": 9.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 0,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 0,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "NYY",
        "games": 161,
        "wins": 93,
        "losses": 68,
        "win_pct": 0.5776,
        "runs_scored": 739.0,
        "runs_allowed": 601.0,
        "run_differential": 138.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.8571,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5901,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7329,
        "offense_index": 1.0213,
        "defense_index": 1.204,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
          "run_differential": 1.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1708
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "BOS",
        "games": 162,
        "wins": 87,
        "losses": 75,
        "win_pct": 0.537,
        "runs_scored": 689.0,
        "runs_allowed": 611.0,
        "run_differential": 78.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.4815,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.2531,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7716,
        "offense_index": 0.9463,
        "defense_index": 1.1917,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 2.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.5,
          "run_differential": -4.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0904
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0804,
        "offense_edge": 0.0213,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0537,
        "defense_strength": 0.204,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1917,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0115,
        "run_prevention": 0.967,
        "strikeout": 1.0067
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "693645",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "693645",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 691.0,
            "k_percent": 31.4,
            "bb_percent": 6.4,
            "woba": 0.243,
            "xwoba": 0.262,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 32.5,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.3,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6999,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.7524,
            "whiff_percent": 29.4,
            "swing_percent": 52.0
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.1,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6329,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.8909,
            "command_and_miss": 0.9479,
            "regression_edge": -0.5429,
            "xwoba_edge": 1.4286,
            "barrel_edge": -0.0222,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.0571,
            "whiff_edge": 0.6,
            "bb_edge": 0.7,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.28
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "693645",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 97,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 97,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 95.84565678559713,
              "release_spin_rate": 2515.855995429108,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 97,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 95.84565678559713,
                "release_spin_rate": 2515.855995429108,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 95.8457,
              "release_spin_rate": 2515.856,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.28,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 2.0,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.7134,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9394,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0771,
          "walk_factor": 0.944,
          "homer_factor": 0.9612,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.019,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "693645",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9394,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9394,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.944,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9612,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 8.0,
            "factor": 1.0771,
            "adjusted": 9
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 1,
      "predicted_R": 0,
      "predicted_ER": 0,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 9,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 99,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260929_BOS@NYY.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260929

20260929_CHC@SD

away

Matthew Boyd

True

6.0

4.0

-6

-1

9/5

1/1

7/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.9078947368421053,
      "WHIP": 1.2078947368421051,
      "IP": 126.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 22,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.758,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.933,
      "last_start_IP": 7.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.2585,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.022,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9629,
      "walk_factor": 0.966,
      "homer_factor": 1.0226,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 18.5,
      "bb_percent": 7.5,
      "woba": 0.303,
      "xwoba": 0.33,
      "barrel_percent": 7.7,
      "hard_hit_percent": 37.6,
      "whiff_percent": 22.3
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 184,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 22.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8148,
        "prior_weight": 0.1852
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "571510",
      "report_date": "20260929",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 22,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 29.2,
            "ER": 12.0,
            "R": 13.0,
            "H": 26.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 20.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 119.0,
            "Pitches": 446.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.6,
            "H": 5.2,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 4.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 23.8,
            "Pitches": 89.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.6404,
            "WHIP": 1.1798,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.40449,
            "H_per_IP": 0.8764,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.30337,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.67416,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 60.2,
            "ER": 30.0,
            "R": 33.0,
            "H": 54.0,
            "BB": 20.0,
            "SO": 36.0,
            "HR": 9.0,
            "BF": 246.0,
            "Pitches": 913.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.3,
            "H": 5.4,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 3.6,
            "HR": 0.9,
            "BF": 24.6,
            "Pitches": 91.3
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.4505,
            "WHIP": 1.2198,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.49451,
            "H_per_IP": 0.89011,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.32967,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.59341,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.14835
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 22,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 126.2,
            "ER": 55.0,
            "R": 59.0,
            "H": 114.0,
            "BB": 39.0,
            "SO": 96.0,
            "HR": 15.0,
            "BF": 520.0,
            "Pitches": 1957.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.5,
            "R": 2.6818,
            "H": 5.1818,
            "BB": 1.7727,
            "SO": 4.3636,
            "HR": 0.6818,
            "BF": 23.6364,
            "Pitches": 88.9545
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.9079,
            "WHIP": 1.2079,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.43421,
            "H_per_IP": 0.9,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.30789,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.75789,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11842
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.706,
        "predicted_H": 5.376,
        "predicted_BB": 1.936,
        "predicted_SO": 4.24,
        "predicted_HR": 0.53,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.0957,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2297
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4282,
      "form_weight": 0.5718,
      "form_reliability": 0.8148,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 22.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8148,
        "prior_weight": 0.1852
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 6.0,
          "final": 6.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 2.706,
          "final": 3.6884,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 9.0,
          "form": 5.376,
          "final": 6.928,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.936,
          "final": 1.5352,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 4.24,
          "final": 5.422,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 0.53,
          "final": 1.5878,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.0957,
          "final": 4.0957,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2297,
          "final": 1.2297,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 60.2,
        "ER": 30,
        "H": 54,
        "BB": 20,
        "SO": 36,
        "HR": 9,
        "ERA": 4.450549450549451,
        "WHIP": 1.2197802197802199,
        "K9": 5.340659340659341,
        "HR9": 1.3351648351648353,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 4,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-24T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9916217175454372,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 5.0,
          "predicted_H": 9.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 7.0,
          "predicted_HR": 3.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 22.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8148,
          "prior_weight": 0.1852
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "571510",
      "player_name": "Matthew Boyd",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CHC",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
            "predicted_H": 9.0,
            "predicted_HR": 3.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
            "predicted_H": 9.0,
            "predicted_HR": 3.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_R": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 9.0,
              "after": 9.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 9.0,
            "after": 9.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 7.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 0,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 0,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "CHC",
        "games": 162,
        "wins": 89,
        "losses": 73,
        "win_pct": 0.5494,
        "runs_scored": 850.0,
        "runs_allowed": 703.0,
        "run_differential": 147.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.9074,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.2469,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3395,
        "offense_index": 1.1673,
        "defense_index": 1.0358,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.3,
          "run_differential": 8.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.153
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "SD",
        "games": 162,
        "wins": 91,
        "losses": 71,
        "win_pct": 0.5617,
        "runs_scored": 722.0,
        "runs_allowed": 681.0,
        "run_differential": 41.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.2531,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4568,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2037,
        "offense_index": 0.9915,
        "defense_index": 1.0693,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 8,
          "losses": 2,
          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
          "run_differential": 18.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1884
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0354,
        "offense_edge": 0.1673,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0085,
        "defense_strength": 0.0358,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0693,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.3
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0,
        "run_prevention": 0.9968,
        "strikeout": 0.9996
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "571510",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "571510",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 473.0,
            "k_percent": 18.5,
            "bb_percent": 7.5,
            "woba": 0.303,
            "xwoba": 0.33,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.1,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.7,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.6,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.1423,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9352,
            "whiff_percent": 22.3,
            "swing_percent": 49.2
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.1,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6329,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.1499,
            "command_and_miss": -0.2914,
            "regression_edge": -0.7714,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.5143,
            "barrel_edge": -0.1111,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.0429,
            "whiff_edge": -0.4143,
            "bb_edge": 0.425,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.2702
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "571510",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 94,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 94,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 85.0398205022295,
              "release_spin_rate": 2211.404515069364,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 94,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 85.0398205022295,
                "release_spin_rate": 2211.404515069364,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 85.0398,
              "release_spin_rate": 2211.4045,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.2702,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.9297,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.2585,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.022,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9629,
          "walk_factor": 0.966,
          "homer_factor": 1.0226,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.027,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "571510",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.022,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.022,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.966,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.0226,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9629,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 9,
      "predicted_R": 5,
      "predicted_ER": 5,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 3,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 29,
      "Pitches": 117,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -6 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was -4."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260929_CHC@SD.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260929

20260929_CHC@SD

home

Michael King

True

5.2

7.0

-3

5/1

2/3

5/8

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.210810810810811,
      "WHIP": 1.1783783783783783,
      "IP": 185.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 32,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.781,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.8,
      "last_start_IP": 4.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.0886,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0075,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9897,
      "walk_factor": 1.0,
      "homer_factor": 0.9966,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 21.0,
      "bb_percent": 9.2,
      "woba": 0.295,
      "xwoba": 0.322,
      "barrel_percent": 8.2,
      "hard_hit_percent": 32.7,
      "whiff_percent": 24.5
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 17,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 32.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8649,
        "prior_weight": 0.1351
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "650633",
      "report_date": "20260929",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 32,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 29.0,
            "ER": 10.0,
            "R": 10.0,
            "H": 26.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 24.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 121.0,
            "Pitches": 473.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 5.2,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 4.8,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 24.2,
            "Pitches": 94.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.1034,
            "WHIP": 1.2414,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.34483,
            "H_per_IP": 0.89655,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.34483,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.82759,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.06897
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 59.2,
            "ER": 19.0,
            "R": 20.0,
            "H": 51.0,
            "BB": 20.0,
            "SO": 50.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 242.0,
            "Pitches": 951.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.9,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 5.1,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 5.0,
            "HR": 0.7,
            "BF": 24.2,
            "Pitches": 95.1
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.8659,
            "WHIP": 1.1899,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.31844,
            "H_per_IP": 0.85475,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.3352,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.83799,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11732
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 32,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 185.0,
            "ER": 66.0,
            "R": 68.0,
            "H": 148.0,
            "BB": 70.0,
            "SO": 159.0,
            "HR": 20.0,
            "BF": 757.0,
            "Pitches": 2981.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.0625,
            "R": 2.125,
            "H": 4.625,
            "BB": 2.1875,
            "SO": 4.9688,
            "HR": 0.625,
            "BF": 23.6562,
            "Pitches": 93.1562
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.2108,
            "WHIP": 1.1784,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.35676,
            "H_per_IP": 0.8,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.37838,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.85946,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10811
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.086,
        "predicted_H": 5.07,
        "predicted_BB": 2.032,
        "predicted_SO": 4.907,
        "predicted_HR": 0.584,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.2544,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2314
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4071,
      "form_weight": 0.5929,
      "form_reliability": 0.8649,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 32.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8649,
        "prior_weight": 0.1351
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.086,
          "final": 2.4581,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.07,
          "final": 5.0415,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.032,
          "final": 2.019,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 4.907,
          "final": 4.1307,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 0.584,
          "final": 1.1604,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.2544,
          "final": 3.2544,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2314,
          "final": 1.2314,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 59.2,
        "ER": 19,
        "H": 51,
        "BB": 20,
        "SO": 50,
        "HR": 7,
        "ERA": 2.865921787709497,
        "WHIP": 1.1899441340782122,
        "K9": 7.541899441340782,
        "HR9": 1.0558659217877093,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 8,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-22T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8126052033333923,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 3.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 32.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8649,
          "prior_weight": 0.1351
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.2,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 5,
          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 5,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "650633",
      "player_name": "Michael King",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "SD",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.5,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 2.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.6667,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 3,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 2,
            "better_metrics": 2,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 2.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.6667,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.5,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 1.0,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.2,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 1.0,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 2.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.6667,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 2,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 1,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 2.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.6667,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "SD",
        "games": 162,
        "wins": 91,
        "losses": 71,
        "win_pct": 0.5617,
        "runs_scored": 722.0,
        "runs_allowed": 681.0,
        "run_differential": 41.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.2531,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4568,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2037,
        "offense_index": 0.9915,
        "defense_index": 1.0693,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 8,
          "losses": 2,
          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
          "run_differential": 18.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1884
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "CHC",
        "games": 162,
        "wins": 89,
        "losses": 73,
        "win_pct": 0.5494,
        "runs_scored": 850.0,
        "runs_allowed": 703.0,
        "run_differential": 147.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.9074,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.2469,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3395,
        "offense_index": 1.1673,
        "defense_index": 1.0358,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.3,
          "run_differential": 8.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.153
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0354,
        "offense_edge": -0.0085,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.1673,
        "defense_strength": 0.0693,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0358,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.3
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9968,
        "run_prevention": 1.0181,
        "strikeout": 0.9877
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "650633",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "650633",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 730.0,
            "k_percent": 21.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.295,
            "xwoba": 0.322,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.7,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 32.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 75.9245,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.0549,
            "whiff_percent": 24.5,
            "swing_percent": 46.5
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.1,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6329,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.0356,
            "command_and_miss": -0.1057,
            "regression_edge": -0.7714,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.2857,
            "barrel_edge": -0.2222,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.7429,
            "whiff_edge": -0.1,
            "bb_edge": 0.0,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0483
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "650633",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 98,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 98,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.00166640531685,
              "release_spin_rate": 2291.8143101549963,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 98,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.00166640531685,
                "release_spin_rate": 2291.8143101549963,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.0017,
              "release_spin_rate": 2291.8143,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0483,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.345,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.0886,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0075,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9897,
          "walk_factor": 1.0,
          "homer_factor": 0.9966,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.027,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "650633",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0075,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0075,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9966,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9897,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 24,
      "Pitches": 97,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was -4."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "MISSED_SHUTDOWN",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Model missed a shutdown outing",
      "detail": "The pitcher allowed zero earned runs after a projection of 3 ER."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260929_CHC@SD.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260929

20260929_CHW@HOU

away

Hagen Smith

True

5.0

3.0

-6

-1

3/2

1/0

6/1

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 0.9642857142857143,
      "WHIP": 0.9285714285714286,
      "IP": 28.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 17,
      "role_avg_IP": 2.0,
      "recent_avg_IP": 2.0,
      "last_start_IP": 2.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.4802,
      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9592,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0674,
      "walk_factor": 1.0477,
      "homer_factor": 0.921,
      "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 37.3,
      "bb_percent": 14.5,
      "woba": 0.211,
      "xwoba": 0.243,
      "barrel_percent": 1.9,
      "hard_hit_percent": 34.0,
      "whiff_percent": 36.2
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 144,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.0,
      "season_IP": 28.0,
      "season_ERA": 0.964,
      "season_WHIP": 0.929,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 5.762,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.5354,
        "prior_weight": 0.4646
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "696146",
      "report_date": "20260929",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 17,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 3.0,
            "BB": 6.0,
            "SO": 9.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 27.0,
            "Pitches": 119.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.1,
            "ER": 0.6,
            "R": 0.6,
            "H": 0.6,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 1.8,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 5.4,
            "Pitches": 23.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.5,
            "WHIP": 1.5,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.5,
            "H_per_IP": 0.5,
            "BB_per_IP": 1.0,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.5,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 17.0,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 8.0,
            "BB": 6.0,
            "SO": 25.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 64.0,
            "Pitches": 260.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.2,
            "ER": 0.3,
            "R": 0.3,
            "H": 0.8,
            "BB": 0.6,
            "SO": 2.5,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 6.4,
            "Pitches": 26.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.5882,
            "WHIP": 0.8235,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.17647,
            "H_per_IP": 0.47059,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.35294,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.47059,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 17,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 28.0,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 10.0,
            "BB": 16.0,
            "SO": 41.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 109.0,
            "Pitches": 465.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.2,
            "ER": 0.1765,
            "R": 0.1765,
            "H": 0.5882,
            "BB": 0.9412,
            "SO": 2.4118,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 6.4118,
            "Pitches": 27.3529
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 0.9643,
            "WHIP": 0.9286,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.10714,
            "H_per_IP": 0.35714,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.57143,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.46429,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 3.0,
        "predicted_ER": 1.264,
        "predicted_H": 2.208,
        "predicted_BB": 1.706,
        "predicted_SO": 3.851,
        "predicted_HR": 0.217,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.6297,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2485
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.5463,
      "form_weight": 0.4537,
      "form_reliability": 0.5354,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 5.762,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.5354,
        "prior_weight": 0.4646
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 3.0,
          "final": 4.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.264,
          "final": 1.1198,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.208,
          "final": 2.6407,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.706,
          "final": 1.3203,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 3.851,
          "final": 5.025,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 0.217,
          "final": 1.191,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.6297,
          "final": 3.6297,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2485,
          "final": 1.2485,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 17.0,
        "ER": 3,
        "H": 8,
        "BB": 6,
        "SO": 25,
        "HR": 0,
        "ERA": 1.588235294117647,
        "WHIP": 0.8235294117647058,
        "K9": 13.235294117647058,
        "HR9": 0.0,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": true,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-25T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8065493996415093,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 6.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 5.762,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.5354,
          "prior_weight": 0.4646
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 1,
          "predicted_H": 3,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 6,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "696146",
      "player_name": "Hagen Smith",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CHW",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": -2.0,
              "percent_delta": -1.0,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 1,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": -2.0,
              "percent_delta": -1.0,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 1.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 2.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 2.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 0,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 0,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "CHW",
        "games": 162,
        "wins": 84,
        "losses": 78,
        "win_pct": 0.5185,
        "runs_scored": 776.0,
        "runs_allowed": 720.0,
        "run_differential": 56.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.3457,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.7901,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4444,
        "offense_index": 1.0659,
        "defense_index": 1.0111,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3,
          "run_differential": 22.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.128
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "HOU",
        "games": 162,
        "wins": 81,
        "losses": 81,
        "win_pct": 0.5,
        "runs_scored": 734.0,
        "runs_allowed": 766.0,
        "run_differential": -32.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.1975,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5309,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7284,
        "offense_index": 1.0082,
        "defense_index": 0.9504,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7,
          "run_differential": 22.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0242
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.1522,
        "offense_edge": 0.0659,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0082,
        "defense_strength": 0.0111,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0496,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0061,
        "run_prevention": 0.9926,
        "strikeout": 1.0039
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "696146",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "696146",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 90.0,
            "k_percent": 37.3,
            "bb_percent": 14.5,
            "woba": 0.211,
            "xwoba": 0.243,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 35.8,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 1.9,
            "hard_hit_percent": 34.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 75.8598,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.4182,
            "whiff_percent": 36.2,
            "swing_percent": 42.4
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.1,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6329,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 1.4882,
            "command_and_miss": 1.2621,
            "regression_edge": -0.9143,
            "xwoba_edge": 1.9714,
            "barrel_edge": 1.1778,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.5571,
            "whiff_edge": 1.5714,
            "bb_edge": -1.325,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0374
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "696146",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 28,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 28,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.19609326567674,
              "release_spin_rate": 2396.9610928315874,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 28,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.19609326567674,
                "release_spin_rate": 2396.9610928315874,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.1961,
              "release_spin_rate": 2396.9611,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0374,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.2672,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.4802,
          "sample_weight": 0.45,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9592,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0674,
          "walk_factor": 1.0477,
          "homer_factor": 0.921,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.032,
          "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "696146",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9816,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9816,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.0215,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9645,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 1.0303,
            "adjusted": 7
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 19,
      "Pitches": 76,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -6 outs from the projected workload."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260929_CHW@HOU.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260929

20260929_CHW@HOU

home

AJ Blubaugh

True

5.0

0.2

-13

2/0

0/3

4/0

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.65625,
      "WHIP": 1.2291666666666667,
      "IP": 96.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 64,
      "role_avg_IP": 3.333,
      "recent_avg_IP": 3.333,
      "last_start_IP": 3.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.0992,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0084,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.024,
      "walk_factor": 1.026,
      "homer_factor": 1.0543,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 23.4,
      "bb_percent": 10.5,
      "woba": 0.306,
      "xwoba": 0.317,
      "barrel_percent": 10.3,
      "hard_hit_percent": 37.0,
      "whiff_percent": 28.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 172,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.0,
      "season_IP": 96.0,
      "season_ERA": 3.656,
      "season_WHIP": 1.229,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 19.755,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.798,
        "prior_weight": 0.202
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "805123",
      "report_date": "20260929",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 64,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 6.0,
            "R": 6.0,
            "H": 4.0,
            "BB": 4.0,
            "SO": 3.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 23.0,
            "Pitches": 88.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.0,
            "ER": 1.2,
            "R": 1.2,
            "H": 0.8,
            "BB": 0.8,
            "SO": 0.6,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 4.6,
            "Pitches": 17.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 10.8,
            "WHIP": 1.6,
            "ER_per_IP": 1.2,
            "H_per_IP": 0.8,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.8,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.6,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.2
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 9.2,
            "ER": 10.0,
            "R": 10.0,
            "H": 10.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 7.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 46.0,
            "Pitches": 186.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.0,
            "ER": 1.0,
            "R": 1.0,
            "H": 1.0,
            "BB": 0.7,
            "SO": 0.7,
            "HR": 0.3,
            "BF": 4.6,
            "Pitches": 18.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 9.3103,
            "WHIP": 1.7586,
            "ER_per_IP": 1.03448,
            "H_per_IP": 1.03448,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.72414,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.72414,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.31034
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 64,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 96.0,
            "ER": 39.0,
            "R": 41.0,
            "H": 76.0,
            "BB": 42.0,
            "SO": 94.0,
            "HR": 13.0,
            "BF": 401.0,
            "Pitches": 1640.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.1,
            "ER": 0.6094,
            "R": 0.6406,
            "H": 1.1875,
            "BB": 0.6562,
            "SO": 1.4688,
            "HR": 0.2031,
            "BF": 6.2656,
            "Pitches": 25.625
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.6562,
            "WHIP": 1.2292,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.40625,
            "H_per_IP": 0.79167,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.4375,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.97917,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13542
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 2.0,
        "predicted_ER": 1.653,
        "predicted_H": 1.678,
        "predicted_BB": 1.183,
        "predicted_SO": 1.42,
        "predicted_HR": 0.391,
        "predicted_ERA": 7.9946,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.5373
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4353,
      "form_weight": 0.5647,
      "form_reliability": 0.798,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 19.755,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.798,
        "prior_weight": 0.202
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 2.0,
          "final": 3.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.653,
          "final": 0.9334,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.678,
          "final": 1.8182,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.183,
          "final": 0.668,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 1.42,
          "final": 2.5432,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.391,
          "final": 0.2208,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 7.9946,
          "final": 7.9946,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.5373,
          "final": 1.5373,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 9.2,
        "ER": 10,
        "H": 10,
        "BB": 7,
        "SO": 7,
        "HR": 3,
        "ERA": 9.310344827586208,
        "WHIP": 1.7586206896551726,
        "K9": 6.517241379310345,
        "HR9": 2.793103448275862,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": true
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-25T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.1783773375379702,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 0.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 19.755,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.798,
          "prior_weight": 0.202
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "805123",
      "player_name": "AJ Blubaugh",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "HOU",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 0.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 0,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 0,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "HOU",
        "games": 162,
        "wins": 81,
        "losses": 81,
        "win_pct": 0.5,
        "runs_scored": 734.0,
        "runs_allowed": 766.0,
        "run_differential": -32.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.1975,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5309,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7284,
        "offense_index": 1.0082,
        "defense_index": 0.9504,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7,
          "run_differential": 22.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0242
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "CHW",
        "games": 162,
        "wins": 84,
        "losses": 78,
        "win_pct": 0.5185,
        "runs_scored": 776.0,
        "runs_allowed": 720.0,
        "run_differential": 56.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.3457,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.7901,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4444,
        "offense_index": 1.0659,
        "defense_index": 1.0111,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3,
          "run_differential": 22.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.128
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.1522,
        "offense_edge": 0.0082,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0659,
        "defense_strength": -0.0496,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0111,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9898,
        "run_prevention": 1.0231,
        "strikeout": 0.9902
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "805123",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "805123",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 368.0,
            "k_percent": 23.4,
            "bb_percent": 10.5,
            "woba": 0.306,
            "xwoba": 0.317,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 37.0,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 10.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.2025,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8711,
            "whiff_percent": 28.1,
            "swing_percent": 48.8
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.1,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6329,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.197,
            "command_and_miss": 0.1636,
            "regression_edge": -0.3143,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.1429,
            "barrel_edge": -0.6889,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.1286,
            "whiff_edge": 0.4143,
            "bb_edge": -0.325,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": false,
            "pitcher_id": "805123",
            "reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
          },
          "quality_score": -0.0992,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0084,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.024,
          "walk_factor": 1.026,
          "homer_factor": 1.0543,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.011,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "805123",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0084,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0084,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.026,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0543,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.024,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 0,
      "predicted_ER": 0,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 17,
      "Pitches": 79,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least three innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -13 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was +3."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260929_CHW@HOU.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260929

20260929_PHI@ATL

away

Jesús Luzardo

True

6.2

5.0

-5

-2

8/3

0/1

7/6

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.8552875695732842,
      "WHIP": 1.0742115027829313,
      "IP": 179.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 30,
      "role_avg_IP": 6.161,
      "recent_avg_IP": 7.0,
      "last_start_IP": 9.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.8001,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.932,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0851,
      "walk_factor": 0.958,
      "homer_factor": 0.9063,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 30.3,
      "bb_percent": 7.1,
      "woba": 0.274,
      "xwoba": 0.261,
      "barrel_percent": 5.9,
      "hard_hit_percent": 33.2,
      "whiff_percent": 31.9
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": null,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 30.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8571,
        "prior_weight": 0.1429
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "666200",
      "report_date": "20260929",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 30,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 29.1,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 5.0,
            "H": 14.0,
            "BB": 6.0,
            "SO": 36.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 109.0,
            "Pitches": 426.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 0.6,
            "R": 1.0,
            "H": 2.8,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 7.2,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 21.8,
            "Pitches": 85.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 0.9205,
            "WHIP": 0.6818,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.10227,
            "H_per_IP": 0.47727,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.20455,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.22727,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10227
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 64.1,
            "ER": 13.0,
            "R": 15.0,
            "H": 39.0,
            "BB": 15.0,
            "SO": 78.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 247.0,
            "Pitches": 938.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.1,
            "ER": 1.3,
            "R": 1.5,
            "H": 3.9,
            "BB": 1.5,
            "SO": 7.8,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 24.7,
            "Pitches": 93.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.8187,
            "WHIP": 0.8394,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.20207,
            "H_per_IP": 0.60622,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.23316,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.21244,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07772
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 30,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 179.2,
            "ER": 57.0,
            "R": 65.0,
            "H": 141.0,
            "BB": 52.0,
            "SO": 221.0,
            "HR": 15.0,
            "BF": 730.0,
            "Pitches": 2864.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.9,
            "R": 2.1667,
            "H": 4.7,
            "BB": 1.7333,
            "SO": 7.3667,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 24.3333,
            "Pitches": 95.4667
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.8553,
            "WHIP": 1.0742,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.31725,
            "H_per_IP": 0.78479,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.28942,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.23006,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08349
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.1,
        "predicted_ER": 1.411,
        "predicted_H": 3.972,
        "predicted_BB": 1.565,
        "predicted_SO": 7.32,
        "predicted_HR": 0.609,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.0497,
        "predicted_WHIP": 0.8937
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4104,
      "form_weight": 0.5896,
      "form_reliability": 0.8571,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 30.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8571,
        "prior_weight": 0.1429
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.2,
          "form": 6.1,
          "final": 6.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.411,
          "final": 1.6527,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 8.0,
          "form": 3.972,
          "final": 5.625,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.565,
          "final": 0.9228,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 7.32,
          "final": 6.3679,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.609,
          "final": 0.3591,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.0497,
          "final": 2.0497,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 0.8937,
          "final": 0.8937,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 64.1,
        "ER": 13,
        "H": 39,
        "BB": 15,
        "SO": 78,
        "HR": 5,
        "ERA": 1.8186528497409324,
        "WHIP": 0.8393782383419688,
        "K9": 10.911917098445594,
        "HR9": 0.699481865284974,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 7,
        "dominant_form": true,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-27T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.6877574755100718,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 8.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 30.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8571,
          "prior_weight": 0.1429
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.2,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 8,
          "predicted_BB": 0,
          "predicted_SO": 7,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "666200",
      "player_name": "Jes\u00fas Luzardo",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "PHI",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 8.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 8.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.2,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.6667,
              "after": 6.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.07,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 2.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.4,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 1,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 2.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.4,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.6667,
              "after": 6.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.07,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 8.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.2,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.2,
              "after": 6.2,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 8.0,
            "after": 8.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.6667,
            "after": 6.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.07,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 2.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.4,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 2,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 1,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 2.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.4,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.6667,
            "after": 6.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.07,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "PHI",
        "games": 162,
        "wins": 88,
        "losses": 74,
        "win_pct": 0.5432,
        "runs_scored": 713.0,
        "runs_allowed": 698.0,
        "run_differential": 15.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0926,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4012,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3086,
        "offense_index": 0.9791,
        "defense_index": 1.0433,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.8,
          "run_differential": -16.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0131
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "ATL",
        "games": 162,
        "wins": 94,
        "losses": 68,
        "win_pct": 0.5802,
        "runs_scored": 742.0,
        "runs_allowed": 626.0,
        "run_differential": 116.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.716,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5802,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8642,
        "offense_index": 1.019,
        "defense_index": 1.1633,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.9,
          "run_differential": 1.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1558
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.1427,
        "offense_edge": -0.0209,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.019,
        "defense_strength": 0.0433,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1633,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9948,
        "run_prevention": 1.0058,
        "strikeout": 0.9942
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "666200",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "666200",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 720.0,
            "k_percent": 30.3,
            "bb_percent": 7.1,
            "woba": 0.274,
            "xwoba": 0.261,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 32.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 5.9,
            "hard_hit_percent": 33.2,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.4214,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.1543,
            "whiff_percent": 31.9,
            "swing_percent": 46.3
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.1,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6329,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.9078,
            "command_and_miss": 0.9671,
            "regression_edge": 0.3714,
            "xwoba_edge": 1.4571,
            "barrel_edge": 0.2889,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.6714,
            "whiff_edge": 0.9571,
            "bb_edge": 0.525,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0394
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "666200",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 106,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 106,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.56721551683269,
              "release_spin_rate": 2205.1938100088837,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 106,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.56721551683269,
                "release_spin_rate": 2205.1938100088837,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.5672,
              "release_spin_rate": 2205.1938,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0394,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.2812,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.8001,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.932,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0851,
          "walk_factor": 0.958,
          "homer_factor": 0.9063,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.013,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "666200",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.932,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.932,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.958,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9063,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 8.0,
            "factor": 1.0851,
            "adjusted": 9
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.2,
      "predicted_H": 8,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 28,
      "Pitches": 108,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 5",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was -5."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: True; actual quality start: False."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260929_PHI@ATL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260929

20260929_PHI@ATL

home

Chris Sale

True

6.1

5/4

3/1

8/9

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.1577868852459017,
      "WHIP": 0.9836065573770493,
      "IP": 162.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 27,
      "role_avg_IP": 6.025,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.733,
      "last_start_IP": 5.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.7138,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9393,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.08,
      "walk_factor": 0.912,
      "homer_factor": 0.9277,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 30.9,
      "bb_percent": 4.8,
      "woba": 0.259,
      "xwoba": 0.267,
      "barrel_percent": 6.2,
      "hard_hit_percent": 35.1,
      "whiff_percent": 30.4
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 9,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 27.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
        "prior_weight": 0.1562
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "519242",
      "report_date": "20260929",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 27,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 33.2,
            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 8.0,
            "H": 26.0,
            "BB": 3.0,
            "SO": 40.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 131.0,
            "Pitches": 497.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.2,
            "ER": 1.6,
            "R": 1.6,
            "H": 5.2,
            "BB": 0.6,
            "SO": 8.0,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 26.2,
            "Pitches": 99.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.1386,
            "WHIP": 0.8614,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.23762,
            "H_per_IP": 0.77228,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.08911,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.18812,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.05941
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 64.2,
            "ER": 15.0,
            "R": 15.0,
            "H": 45.0,
            "BB": 6.0,
            "SO": 83.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 245.0,
            "Pitches": 989.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.1,
            "ER": 1.5,
            "R": 1.5,
            "H": 4.5,
            "BB": 0.6,
            "SO": 8.3,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 24.5,
            "Pitches": 98.9
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.0876,
            "WHIP": 0.7887,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.23196,
            "H_per_IP": 0.69588,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.09278,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.28351,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.03093
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 27,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 162.2,
            "ER": 39.0,
            "R": 44.0,
            "H": 129.0,
            "BB": 31.0,
            "SO": 200.0,
            "HR": 10.0,
            "BF": 648.0,
            "Pitches": 2574.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.4444,
            "R": 1.6296,
            "H": 4.7778,
            "BB": 1.1481,
            "SO": 7.4074,
            "HR": 0.3704,
            "BF": 24.0,
            "Pitches": 95.3333
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.1578,
            "WHIP": 0.9836,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.23975,
            "H_per_IP": 0.79303,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.19057,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.22951,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.06148
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.1,
        "predicted_ER": 1.789,
        "predicted_H": 5.036,
        "predicted_BB": 0.977,
        "predicted_SO": 7.581,
        "predicted_HR": 0.418,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.5137,
        "predicted_WHIP": 0.9389
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.416,
      "form_weight": 0.584,
      "form_reliability": 0.8438,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 27.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
        "prior_weight": 0.1562
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.1,
          "form": 6.1,
          "final": 6.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.789,
          "final": 1.8768,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.036,
          "final": 5.021,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 0.977,
          "final": 1.8186,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 7.581,
          "final": 5.6753,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.418,
          "final": 0.6601,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.5137,
          "final": 2.5137,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 0.9389,
          "final": 0.9389,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 64.2,
        "ER": 15,
        "H": 45,
        "BB": 6,
        "SO": 83,
        "HR": 2,
        "ERA": 2.087628865979381,
        "WHIP": 0.788659793814433,
        "K9": 11.551546391752577,
        "HR9": 0.2783505154639175,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 9,
        "dominant_form": true,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-23T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.7150151411321597,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 3.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 27.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8438,
          "prior_weight": 0.1562
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.1,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 5,
          "predicted_BB": 3,
          "predicted_SO": 8,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "519242",
      "player_name": "Chris Sale",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "ATL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.1,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.3333,
              "after": 6.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0368,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 5.0,
              "percent_delta": 1.6667,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 1,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 5.0,
              "percent_delta": 1.6667,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.3333,
              "after": 6.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0368,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.1,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.1,
              "after": 6.1,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.3333,
            "after": 6.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0368,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 8.0,
            "delta": 5.0,
            "percent_delta": 1.6667,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 2,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 1,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 8.0,
            "delta": 5.0,
            "percent_delta": 1.6667,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.3333,
            "after": 6.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0368,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "ATL",
        "games": 162,
        "wins": 94,
        "losses": 68,
        "win_pct": 0.5802,
        "runs_scored": 742.0,
        "runs_allowed": 626.0,
        "run_differential": 116.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.716,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5802,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8642,
        "offense_index": 1.019,
        "defense_index": 1.1633,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.9,
          "run_differential": 1.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1558
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "PHI",
        "games": 162,
        "wins": 88,
        "losses": 74,
        "win_pct": 0.5432,
        "runs_scored": 713.0,
        "runs_allowed": 698.0,
        "run_differential": 15.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0926,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4012,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3086,
        "offense_index": 0.9791,
        "defense_index": 1.0433,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.8,
          "run_differential": -16.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0131
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.1427,
        "offense_edge": 0.019,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0209,
        "defense_strength": 0.1633,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0433,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0114,
        "run_prevention": 0.9732,
        "strikeout": 1.006
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "519242",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "519242",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 601.0,
            "k_percent": 30.9,
            "bb_percent": 4.8,
            "woba": 0.259,
            "xwoba": 0.267,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 35.1,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.8972,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.4361,
            "whiff_percent": 30.4,
            "swing_percent": 50.7
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.1,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6329,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.8393,
            "command_and_miss": 1.0457,
            "regression_edge": -0.2286,
            "xwoba_edge": 1.2857,
            "barrel_edge": 0.2222,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.4,
            "whiff_edge": 0.7429,
            "bb_edge": 1.1,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0655
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "519242",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 101,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 101,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.69431015805822,
              "release_spin_rate": 2357.280511373259,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 101,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.69431015805822,
                "release_spin_rate": 2357.280511373259,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.6943,
              "release_spin_rate": 2357.2805,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0655,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.4679,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.7138,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9393,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.08,
          "walk_factor": 0.912,
          "homer_factor": 0.9277,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.008,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "519242",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9393,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9393,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.912,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9277,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 8.0,
            "factor": 1.08,
            "adjusted": 9
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.1,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 8,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 27,
      "Pitches": 119,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260929_PHI@ATL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}