Continuous postgame learning

daily_20260927 · dates 20260927 · generated 2026-09-28T09:00:20.830616+00:00

9-5

Winner picks · 64.3%

Comparable starters · 0 identity mismatches

16/28

Starter ER within ±1

13/28

Starter workload within ±1 inning

Slate coverage

Every calendar day in the requested window is listed. Pending means the prediction exists but the official final result has not settled; Missing review artifact identifies a data gap instead of hiding the day.

Date	Games	Settled	Pending	Hits	Misses	Calibration traces	Review status	Pipeline versions
20260927	15	14	1	9	5	15	Available	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Prioritized optimization roadmap

Runtime evidence for the six recommendations. “Observed games” counts artifacts generated with the relevant trace; older artifacts remain honestly blank.

Priority	Change	Status	Observed games	Evidence
P1	Empirical Confidence Blend	Implemented And Applied	15	applied games: 15formula: w_emp=min(0.5,sample_size/200); final=(1-w_emp)raw+w_empempirical_hit_rate
P1	H2H Base Feature	Implemented And Monitored	15	available games: 15
P2	Score Distribution Widening	Implemented Above 1.4X	15	variance multipliers: [2.25]
P2	Simulation Flip Control	Diagnostic Only Without Independent Support	15	simulation flip candidates: 0published flips: 0
P3	Recent Form Quality Blend	Implemented Last 10	15	configured window: 10last 10 games: 15observed windows: [10]
P3	Continuous Calibration Audit	Implemented	15	settled games: 14metric: bucket_calibration_error

Confidence calibration by bucket

bucket_calibration_error = average published confidence − observed hit rate. Positive means overconfident; negative means underconfident. Weighted absolute error: 0.1031.

Bucket	Games	Average confidence	Observed hit rate	Calibration error	Direction
0.50-0.55	7	51.1%	57.1%	-6.0%	underconfident
0.55-0.60	7	56.8%	71.4%	-14.6%	underconfident

Where the score pipeline gained or lost quality

Direct comparison against official final runs. Positive deltas mean the stage was worse than historical_ml; this is score error, not a synthetic one-game ERA.

Stage	Games	Team-run MAE	Total-run MAE	Margin MAE	Winner accuracy	Δ team MAE vs base	Δ margin MAE vs base
historical_ml	14	1.7001	1.7568	2.8805	57.1%	0.0	0.0
variance_applied	14	1.6786	1.7857	2.7857	57.1%	-0.0215	-0.0948
enhanced_prediction	14	1.8571	2.7143	3.0	64.3%	0.157	0.1195
embedded_savant_run_environment	14	1.8929	2.9286	2.9286	64.3%	0.1928	0.0481
fundamental_edge_target_review	14	1.9286	2.8571	3.0	64.3%	0.2285	0.1195
capped_target	14	1.9286	2.8571	3.0	64.3%	0.2285	0.1195
simulation_result	14	1.9286	2.8571	3.0	64.3%	0.2285	0.1195
published_final	14	1.9286	2.8571	3.0	64.3%	0.2285	0.1195

Largest measured regression

{
  "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
  "games": 14,
  "team_run_mae": 1.9286,
  "total_run_mae": 2.8571,
  "margin_mae": 3.0,
  "winner_hits": 9,
  "winner_accuracy": 0.6429,
  "team_run_mae_delta_vs_historical_ml": 0.2285,
  "margin_mae_delta_vs_historical_ml": 0.1195
}

Automatic questions

Which recorded score stage reinforced losing picks?

partial_attribution sample=5

Largest positive recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. Positive, negative, net, absolute, and unchanged movements are shown separately so opposite games cannot cancel into a misleading zero. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution.

Stage	Positive Toward Pick Run Delta	Negative Away From Pick Run Delta	Net Toward Pick Run Delta	Absolute Run Movement	Games Recorded	Games Supporting Pick	Games Opposing Pick	Games Unchanged	Meaning
enhanced_prediction	4.0	-1.0	3.0	5.0	5	3	1	1	reinforced final pick
embedded_savant_run_environment	2.0	-1.0	1.0	3.0	5	2	1	2	reinforced final pick
variance_applied	1.062	-1.1559	-0.0939	2.2179	5	2	3	0	reinforced final pick
fundamental_edge_target_review	1.0	0.0	1.0	1.0	5	1	0	4	reinforced final pick
capped_target	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	5	0	0	5	recorded but did not change score margin
simulation_result	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	5	0	0	5	recorded but did not change score margin

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "partial_attribution",
  "sample_size": 5,
  "top_stage": "enhanced_prediction",
  "ranking": [
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 4.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -1.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 3.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 5.0,
      "games_recorded": 5,
      "games_supporting_pick": 3,
      "games_opposing_pick": 1,
      "games_unchanged": 1,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 2.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -1.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 3.0,
      "games_recorded": 5,
      "games_supporting_pick": 2,
      "games_opposing_pick": 1,
      "games_unchanged": 2,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.062,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -1.1559,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": -0.0939,
      "absolute_run_movement": 2.2179,
      "games_recorded": 5,
      "games_supporting_pick": 2,
      "games_opposing_pick": 3,
      "games_unchanged": 0,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 1.0,
      "games_recorded": 5,
      "games_supporting_pick": 1,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 4,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 5,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 5,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 5,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 5,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    }
  ],
  "interpretation": "Largest positive recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. Positive, negative, net, absolute, and unchanged movements are shown separately so opposite games cannot cancel into a misleading zero. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution."
}

Which recorded score stage reinforced winning picks?

partial_attribution sample=9

Stage	Positive Toward Pick Run Delta	Negative Away From Pick Run Delta	Net Toward Pick Run Delta	Absolute Run Movement	Games Recorded	Games Supporting Pick	Games Opposing Pick	Games Unchanged	Meaning
enhanced_prediction	5.0	-3.0	2.0	8.0	9	3	1	5	reinforced final pick
embedded_savant_run_environment	4.0	0.0	4.0	4.0	9	3	0	6	reinforced final pick
variance_applied	1.4759	-1.9132	-0.4373	3.3891	9	6	3	0	reinforced final pick
fundamental_edge_target_review	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	9	0	0	9	recorded but did not change score margin
capped_target	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	9	0	0	9	recorded but did not change score margin
simulation_result	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	9	0	0	9	recorded but did not change score margin

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "partial_attribution",
  "sample_size": 9,
  "top_stage": "enhanced_prediction",
  "ranking": [
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 5.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -3.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 2.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 8.0,
      "games_recorded": 9,
      "games_supporting_pick": 3,
      "games_opposing_pick": 1,
      "games_unchanged": 5,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 4.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 4.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 4.0,
      "games_recorded": 9,
      "games_supporting_pick": 3,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 6,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.4759,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -1.9132,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": -0.4373,
      "absolute_run_movement": 3.3891,
      "games_recorded": 9,
      "games_supporting_pick": 6,
      "games_opposing_pick": 3,
      "games_unchanged": 0,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 9,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 9,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 9,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 9,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 9,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 9,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    }
  ],
  "interpretation": "Largest positive recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. Positive, negative, net, absolute, and unchanged movements are shown separately so opposite games cannot cancel into a misleading zero. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution."
}

Are Overs performing worse than Unders?

not_measurable sample=0

The current artifacts contain predicted totals but no total line, Over/Under selection, price, or settled total bet.

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "The current artifacts contain predicted totals but no total line, Over/Under selection, price, or settled total bet.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "total_line",
    "total_selection",
    "odds",
    "settled_result"
  ]
}

Are hitter props outperforming pitcher props?

not_measurable sample=0

Player stat projections are not stored as priced, selected, and settled prop predictions.

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "Player stat projections are not stored as priced, selected, and settled prop predictions.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "prop_family",
    "prop_line",
    "selection",
    "odds",
    "settled_result"
  ]
}

Which sportsbooks produce better opportunities?

not_measurable sample=0

No settled prediction was linked to a sportsbook snapshot.

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "No settled prediction was linked to a sportsbook snapshot.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "sportsbook",
    "selection_odds",
    "settled_profit"
  ],
  "books": []
}

Which confidence ranges underperform?

insufficient_sample sample=14

Range	Sample Size	Hits	Misses	Accuracy
[0.000, 0.525)	6	4	2	0.6667
[0.525, 0.550)	1	0	1	0.0
[0.550, 0.600)	7	5	2	0.7143
[0.600, 1.010)	0	0	0

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 14,
  "minimum_recommended_sample": 20,
  "worst_observed_range": {
    "range": "[0.525, 0.550)",
    "sample_size": 1,
    "hits": 0,
    "misses": 1,
    "accuracy": 0.0
  },
  "ranges": [
    {
      "range": "[0.000, 0.525)",
      "sample_size": 6,
      "hits": 4,
      "misses": 2,
      "accuracy": 0.6667
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.525, 0.550)",
      "sample_size": 1,
      "hits": 0,
      "misses": 1,
      "accuracy": 0.0
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.550, 0.600)",
      "sample_size": 7,
      "hits": 5,
      "misses": 2,
      "accuracy": 0.7143
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.600, 1.010)",
      "sample_size": 0,
      "hits": 0,
      "misses": 0,
      "accuracy": null
    }
  ]
}

Which monitored features are drifting?

insufficient_sample sample=15

Three slates are descriptive only and cannot establish statistical feature drift.

Date	Sample Size	Mean Confidence	Mean Predicted Total	Accuracy
20260927	15	0.5384	9.4667	0.6429

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 15,
  "minimum_baseline_sample": 30,
  "minimum_recent_sample": 20,
  "reason": "Three slates are descriptive only and cannot establish statistical feature drift.",
  "daily_monitors": [
    {
      "date": "20260927",
      "sample_size": 15,
      "mean_confidence": 0.5384,
      "mean_predicted_total": 9.4667,
      "accuracy": 0.6429
    }
  ],
  "features_monitored": [
    "confidence",
    "predicted_total",
    "winner_accuracy"
  ]
}

Which model version introduced errors?

insufficient_sample sample=14

Version error claims require at least 30 settled predictions per version.

Pipeline Version	Model Schema Version	Policy Version	Sample Size	Hits	Misses	Accuracy
enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	historical_game_temporal_v11	model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3	14	9	5	0.6429

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 14,
  "minimum_sample_per_version": 30,
  "versions": [
    {
      "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "sample_size": 14,
      "hits": 9,
      "misses": 5,
      "accuracy": 0.6429
    }
  ],
  "reason": "Version error claims require at least 30 settled predictions per version."
}

Game processing context

How each game moved from the historical model through confidence calibration, H2H and recent-form signals, score distribution and simulation policy. Postgame learning is added only after the official result settles.

20260927_ARI@SD

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickARI

Published scoreARI 6 - 4 SD

Final confidence51.1%

Calibrationraw 51.0% → blended 53.2%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.4% · weight 50.0% · n=681

H2H base featurehome net -1.0 · absolute 1.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.218

Simulation variance2.25

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.37346458304591-3.560109137438682	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	6-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	6-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	6-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	6-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "ARI",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": -0.02163,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.510815,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.489185,
    "away_win_probability": 0.510815
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.02163,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "ARI wins 6-4",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "ARI 6 - 4 SD",
    "confidence": 0.5108153999999999,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5101,
    "sample_size": 681,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5536,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.53185,
    "published_confidence": 0.510815,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -1.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 1.0,
    "home_average_margin": -0.2,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0058,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0058,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -7.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -6.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.1739,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.3,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.218
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.018788937777961208
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.01841548708876178
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.018213197731838507
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.017851190505785593
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.017438993284560795
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05438607200724093,
      "1": 0.08045611194386895,
      "2": 0.10708620943737558,
      "3": 0.1282363674218316,
      "4": 0.13816308596745053,
      "5": 0.13392942345670128,
      "6": 0.11680545626580846,
      "7": 0.09165442088787944,
      "8": 0.06470634392801054,
      "9": 0.04110015525706945,
      "10": 0.023487847564154972,
      "11": 0.012076640365850828,
      "12": 0.005586659518557123,
      "13": 0.0023252059782004238
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.052490155300874176,
      "1": 0.07774674338896906,
      "2": 0.10386176863950734,
      "3": 0.12514064220362323,
      "4": 0.13599101124874732,
      "5": 0.1332880411566678,
      "6": 0.11782605200179402,
      "7": 0.09394217800686316,
      "8": 0.06755369085737498,
      "9": 0.04381337387829081,
      "10": 0.025629106835708328,
      "11": 0.013521641075198397,
      "12": 0.006434199078549912,
      "13": 0.002761396327831488
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.25,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "ARI 6 - 4 SD",
      "winner": "ARI"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "ARI 6 - 4 SD",
      "winner": "ARI"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0503,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.37,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "ARI",
      "model_winner": "ARI",
      "simulation_winner": "ARI",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 4,
        "published_winner": "ARI",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "ARI",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
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      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 4
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    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
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      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
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    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
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    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
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      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.3,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0503,
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        "min": 5,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 8,
        "range": 3
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        "season_quality_edge": 0.1739,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": 0.1739,
          "recent_quality_edge": 0.3,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": 0.218
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 0.0,
        "reason": "season quality edge below action threshold"
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
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            "away_runs": 4,
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        "home_distribution": {
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        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
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    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
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      "away_runs": 4.37346458304591,
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      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260927_ATL@MIA

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickMIA

Published scoreATL 4 - 5 MIA

Final confidence50.5%

Calibrationraw 53.5% → blended 53.9%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.4% · weight 50.0% · n=575

H2H base featurehome net -15.0 · absolute 15.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.6486

Simulation variance2.25

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.345531559741641-4.250665726347227	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIA",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.01,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.505,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.505,
    "away_win_probability": 0.495
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.01,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIA wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "ATL 4 - 5 MIA",
    "confidence": 0.505,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.534653,
    "sample_size": 575,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5443,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.539476,
    "published_confidence": 0.505,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -15.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 15.0,
    "home_average_margin": -3.0,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0865,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0865,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -5.0
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      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
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      {
        "home_margin": -8.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
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    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
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    "season_quality_edge": -0.8665,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.244,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.6486
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  "score_distribution": {
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        "home_runs": 4,
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        "probability": 0.01879252567582952
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        "away_runs": 4,
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    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05313747959369345,
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      "2": 0.10496656774399866,
      "3": 0.12620713232480718,
      "4": 0.1367483371335385,
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      "6": 0.11749357633285612,
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      "5": 0.1337254902166993,
      "6": 0.11717606999664779,
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    "variance_multiplier": 2.25,
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    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
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  "simulation_reconciliation": {
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      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "ATL 4 - 5 MIA",
      "winner": "MIA"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "ATL 4 - 5 MIA",
      "winner": "MIA"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.068,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.454,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
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      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "MIA",
      "model_winner": "MIA",
      "simulation_winner": "MIA",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "MIA",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5,
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
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      },
      "simulation_score": {
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    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
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      "pre_margin": 1,
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      "score_reviewed": {
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        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "MIA",
    "display_confidence": 0.505,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5292,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.505,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.6486,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.244,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.068,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.5,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.5,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 5,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 7,
        "range": 2
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
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      "parent_config_id": "candidate-c1d5650d9262b3dc",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-27T09:06:54.240008+00:00",
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        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
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        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
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        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
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  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
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    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
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        "risk_tier": "low",
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    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
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    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-27T18:49:29.731064+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-27T19:10:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.505,
      "confidence": 0.505,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "total_runs": 9
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      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
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        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
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    {
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    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
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    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
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      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
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      "home_runs": 5,
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    }
  ]
}

20260927_BAL@NYY

Official result pending · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Official result pending

PickNYY

Published scoreBAL 5 - 6 NYY

Final confidence52.0%

Calibrationraw 58.9% → blended 57.3%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.8% · weight 50.0% · n=800

H2H base featurehome net 4.0 · absolute 4.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.6441

Simulation variance2.25

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.520310114274014-4.344378807949707	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-6	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail, season_quality_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-6	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-6	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-6	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-6	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYY",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "confidence": 0.039092,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.519546,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.519546,
    "away_win_probability": 0.480454
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.039092,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYY wins 6-5",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 6
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "predicted_score_text": "BAL 5 - 6 NYY",
    "confidence": 0.5195463705,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.589259,
    "sample_size": 800,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5575,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.57338,
    "published_confidence": 0.519546,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 4.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 4.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.8,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0231,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0231,
    "evidence": [
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        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -8.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
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    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
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      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
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  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 1.118,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.236,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
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    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
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  "score_distribution": {
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    "home_distribution": {
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    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
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  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "BAL 5 - 6 NYY",
      "winner": "NYY"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "BAL 5 - 6 NYY",
      "winner": "NYY"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0053,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.026,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
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    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "winner": "NYY",
      "model_winner": "NYY",
      "simulation_winner": "NYY",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 6,
        "published_winner": "NYY",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5,
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
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        "home_runs": 6
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 6
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
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      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 6,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
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  },
  "decision_profile": {
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    "display_confidence": 0.5195,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5451,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5195,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
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      "final_margin": 1,
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      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.236,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0053,
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      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.3333,
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      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 4,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 8,
        "range": 4
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    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
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        "starter_experience": {
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        }
      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
        "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
        "available": true,
        "sample_size": 5,
        "sample_weight": 0.0577,
        "home_net_margin": 4.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 4.0,
        "home_average_margin": 0.8,
        "home_run_delta": 0.0231,
        "away_run_delta": -0.0231,
        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": 3.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": -8.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 5.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 2.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 2.0
          }
        ],
        "adaptive_parameters": {
          "h2h.history_limit": 5,
          "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
          "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
          "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
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      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "home": {
          "team": "NYY",
          "games": 161,
          "wins": 93,
          "losses": 68,
          "win_pct": 0.577639751552795,
          "runs_scored": 739,
          "runs_allowed": 601,
          "run_differential": 138,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.8571428571428571,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "BAL",
          "games": 161,
          "wins": 79,
          "losses": 82,
          "win_pct": 0.4906832298136646,
          "runs_scored": 718,
          "runs_allowed": 739,
          "run_differential": -21,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.13043478260869565,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 0.9876,
        "win_pct_edge": 0.087,
        "quality_edge": 0.6441,
        "season_quality_edge": 1.118,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": 1.118,
          "recent_quality_edge": -0.236,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "conflict",
          "blended_quality_edge": 0.6441
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 0.2705,
        "reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
          "adjustment": 0.2705,
          "cap": 1.4,
          "scale": 0.42,
          "quality_edge": 0.6441,
          "season_quality_edge": 1.118,
          "recent_alignment": "conflict",
          "large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": false,
          "method": "standard_bounded_season_recent_adjustment"
        },
        "adjusted_score": {
          "away_runs": 5.221,
          "home_runs": 4.42,
          "home_win_probability": 0.4319
        }
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
            "home_runs": 5,
            "away_runs": 5,
            "probability": 0.016132814980602133
          },
          {
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            "away_runs": 5,
            "probability": 0.016005813082268006
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          {
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            "away_runs": 4,
            "probability": 0.01599668223864442
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          {
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            "away_runs": 4,
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          {
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            "away_runs": 5,
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        ],
        "home_distribution": {
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          "3": 0.09522233361378148,
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          "15": 0.0023378296886583613
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        "away_distribution": {
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          "13": 0.003687124555170227,
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        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.520310114274014,
      "home_runs": 4.344378807949707,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail, season_quality_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260927_CHC@BOS

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickCHC

Published scoreCHC 4 - 3 BOS

Final confidence50.5%

Calibrationraw 46.0% → blended 50.1%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.1% · weight 50.0% · n=543

H2H base featurehome net 3.0 · absolute 3.0 · n=2

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.2607

Simulation variance2.25

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.9923887695800966-4.516311014594185	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-3	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-3	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-3	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-3	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-3	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "CHC",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "confidence": -0.010298,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.505149,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.494851,
    "away_win_probability": 0.505149
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.010298,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "CHC wins 4-3",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "predicted_score_text": "CHC 4 - 3 BOS",
    "confidence": 0.5051492575,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.4601,
    "sample_size": 543,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5414,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.50075,
    "published_confidence": 0.505149,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 2,
    "sample_weight": 0.03,
    "home_net_margin": 3.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 3.0,
    "home_average_margin": 1.5,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0225,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0225,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.3882,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.024,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.2607
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.029383700649558718
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02778001810339291
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.02741811341741829
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02710160893474656
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.026608606813468372
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.09172854398067469,
      "1": 0.13237168861944973,
      "2": 0.1635412816131467,
      "3": 0.17298217894893925,
      "4": 0.15664517006500592,
      "5": 0.12144351604917995,
      "6": 0.08060710710699964,
      "7": 0.045805119074394954,
      "8": 0.022284165566779278,
      "9": 0.009281548006219121,
      "10": 0.003309680969210848
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.0879746086753731,
      "1": 0.1272878479517881,
      "2": 0.15850253236497586,
      "3": 0.16986547879150127,
      "4": 0.15667283820460137,
      "5": 0.12436608278195374,
      "6": 0.08496300432101335,
      "7": 0.04995482331988761,
      "8": 0.025278113226768803,
      "9": 0.01100858609825407,
      "10": 0.004126084263882452
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.25,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "CHC 4 - 3 BOS",
      "winner": "CHC"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "CHC 4 - 3 BOS",
      "winner": "CHC"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0533,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.326,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "winner": "CHC",
      "model_winner": "CHC",
      "simulation_winner": "CHC",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 3,
        "published_winner": "CHC",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "CHC",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.2607,
      "winner": "CHC",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "CHC",
    "display_confidence": 0.5051,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6207,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5051,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.2607,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.024,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0533,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.3333,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 7,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 8,
        "range": 1
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
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      "parent_config_id": "candidate-c1d5650d9262b3dc",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-27T09:06:54.240008+00:00",
      "parameters": {
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        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
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        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
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        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
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        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
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        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
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        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
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        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
        "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
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        "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
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        "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
        "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
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  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
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    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
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        "risk_tier": "low",
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    "evaluation_modes": [
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    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
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      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-27T19:05:00+00:00",
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    },
    {
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      "home_runs": 3,
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    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
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    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
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      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260927_CIN@TOR

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickTOR

Published scoreCIN 4 - 5 TOR

Final confidence51.2%

Calibrationraw 51.0% → blended 53.3%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.7% · weight 50.0% · n=778

H2H base featurehome net -3.0 · absolute 3.0 · n=2

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.3033

Simulation variance2.25

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.197209789573096-4.619419560292573	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "TOR",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.023182,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.511591,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.511591,
    "away_win_probability": 0.488409
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.023182,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "TOR wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "CIN 4 - 5 TOR",
    "confidence": 0.511590634,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5101,
    "sample_size": 778,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5566,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.53335,
    "published_confidence": 0.511591,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 2,
    "sample_weight": 0.03,
    "home_net_margin": -3.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 3.0,
    "home_average_margin": -1.5,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0225,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0225,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
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      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.6863,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.408,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.3033
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  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.019257563954809338
      },
      {
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        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.018711973556305998
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      {
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        "probability": 0.018498638556385873
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      {
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        "probability": 0.018000695984678388
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    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05397739188979234,
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        "calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.5553,
        "calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.3033,
        "reasons": [
          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability"
        ],
        "score_coherence": {
          "policy": "probability_follows_published_score_v1",
          "published_score": {
            "away_runs": 4,
            "home_runs": 5
          },
          "margin": 1,
          "probability_before": 0.521275,
          "margin_implied_home_probability": 0.574033,
          "shrinkage_weight": 0.985302,
          "side_flipped": false,
          "applied": false,
          "magnitude_pull_suppressed": true,
          "probability_after": 0.521275,
          "aligned_pick_probability": 0.521275
        },
        "starter_experience": {
          "applied": true,
          "min_starter_games": 11,
          "per_starter_career_games": {
            "453286": 17,
            "682227": 11
          },
          "shrink_factor": 0.9458,
          "probability_before": 0.521275,
          "probability_after": 0.520123,
          "reason": "inexperienced starter (debut/thin history): confidence shrunk toward 0.5 by career-games factor; winner unchanged"
        }
      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
        "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
        "available": true,
        "sample_size": 2,
        "sample_weight": 0.03,
        "home_net_margin": -3.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 3.0,
        "home_average_margin": -1.5,
        "home_run_delta": -0.0225,
        "away_run_delta": 0.0225,
        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": -4.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 1.0
          }
        ],
        "adaptive_parameters": {
          "h2h.history_limit": 5,
          "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
          "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
          "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
        }
      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
        "applied": false,
        "home": {
          "team": "TOR",
          "games": 161,
          "wins": 78,
          "losses": 83,
          "win_pct": 0.484472049689441,
          "runs_scored": 643,
          "runs_allowed": 693,
          "run_differential": -50,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.3105590062111801,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "CIN",
          "games": 161,
          "wins": 75,
          "losses": 86,
          "win_pct": 0.4658385093167702,
          "runs_scored": 665,
          "runs_allowed": 821,
          "run_differential": -156,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.968944099378882,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 0.6584,
        "win_pct_edge": 0.0186,
        "quality_edge": 0.3033,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.6863,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": 0.6863,
          "recent_quality_edge": -0.408,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "conflict",
          "blended_quality_edge": 0.3033
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 0.0,
        "reason": "season quality edge below action threshold"
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 4,
            "probability": 0.020031794224121123
          },
          {
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            "away_runs": 4,
            "probability": 0.019438267295532836
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          {
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            "away_runs": 3,
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          },
          {
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            "away_runs": 5,
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        ],
        "home_distribution": {
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          "1": 0.07943580219567607,
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          "3": 0.12967221958003092,
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          "10": 0.02250795891152577,
          "11": 0.011285674008321886,
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        "away_distribution": {
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          "3": 0.13288279403561243,
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          "7": 0.08963455227883542,
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          "10": 0.020429812878883135,
          "11": 0.009960834648961267,
          "12": 0.00433888281897495
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.197209789573096,
      "home_runs": 4.619419560292573,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260927_CLE@KC

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickCLE

Published scoreCLE 6 - 4 KC

Final confidence56.0%

Calibrationraw 90.9% → blended 73.4%

Empirical signalhit rate 56.0% · weight 50.0% · n=293

H2H base featurehome net -11.0 · absolute 11.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -1.0963

Simulation variance2.25

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.616792826983626-3.5910432844055933	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	6-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	6-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	6-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	6-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	6-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "CLE",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": -0.12,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.56,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.44,
    "away_win_probability": 0.56
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.12,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "CLE wins 6-4",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "CLE 6 - 4 KC",
    "confidence": 0.56,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.909286,
    "sample_size": 293,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5597,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.734493,
    "published_confidence": 0.56,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -11.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 11.0,
    "home_average_margin": -2.2,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0635,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0635,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -6.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -10.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.9845,
    "recent_quality_edge": -1.304,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -1.0963
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.015994218656248508
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 7,
        "probability": 0.01588013305600087
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.015528817648898347
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 7,
        "probability": 0.01541805172024083
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.015027899452593833
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06433843033623264,
      "1": 0.09456884162445255,
      "2": 0.12346428748350588,
      "3": 0.14316943673155677,
      "4": 0.14746024634650184,
      "5": 0.134901031588968,
      "6": 0.10961532181999464,
      "7": 0.07911210360178365,
      "8": 0.05071428172265698,
      "9": 0.028875751917359013,
      "10": 0.014603333450518294,
      "11": 0.006559736263846264,
      "12": 0.00261719711262357
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.026320551214493636,
      "1": 0.0396486066546728,
      "2": 0.05571693773903036,
      "3": 0.07304204236234586,
      "4": 0.0893274501038506,
      "5": 0.10191153090359892,
      "6": 0.10846461370114166,
      "7": 0.10769094348781812,
      "8": 0.09974626663402815,
      "9": 0.08618674460504351,
      "10": 0.06947213797931326,
      "11": 0.052240486325978316,
      "12": 0.03664629876953908,
      "13": 0.02398166789353912,
      "14": 0.014640469716201053,
      "15": 0.008337906035261224,
      "16": 0.00442981247801881,
      "17": 0.0021955333961254345
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.25,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "CLE 6 - 4 KC",
      "winner": "CLE"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "CLE 6 - 4 KC",
      "winner": "CLE"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.028,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -1.374,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "CLE",
      "model_winner": "CLE",
      "simulation_winner": "CLE",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 3,
        "published_winner": "CLE",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "CLE",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.0963,
      "winner": "CLE",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "CLE",
    "display_confidence": 0.56,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.7085,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.56,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.0963,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 1.304,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.028,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.3333,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.3333,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 6,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 11,
        "range": 5
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-8133e99fc8d4e4c7",
      "config_hash": "sha256:1ad22b058ac7f786856b2afec11660ade914953b5b660a1d45855a0be03d5ccc",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-c1d5650d9262b3dc",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-27T09:06:54.240008+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 2.25,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
        "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
        "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
        "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
        "context.lineup_context_min": 0.8,
        "context.lineup_context_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
        "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
        "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
        "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
        "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
        "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
        "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
      }
    }
  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
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    },
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    },
    {
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  ]
}

20260927_COL@CHW

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickCHW

Published scoreCOL 5 - 8 CHW

Final confidence56.0%

Calibrationraw 82.9% → blended 69.1%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.3% · weight 50.0% · n=237

H2H base featurehome net 2.0 · absolute 2.0 · n=2

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 1.4935

Simulation variance2.25

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.191156896049202-4.971862471537651	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-8	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-8	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-8	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-8	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-8	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "CHW",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 8,
    "confidence": 0.12,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.56,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.56,
    "away_win_probability": 0.44
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.12,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "CHW wins 8-5",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 8
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 8,
    "predicted_score_text": "COL 5 - 8 CHW",
    "confidence": 0.56,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.828766,
    "sample_size": 237,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5527,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.690733,
    "published_confidence": 0.56,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 2,
    "sample_weight": 0.03,
    "home_net_margin": 2.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 2.0,
    "home_average_margin": 1.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.015,
    "away_run_delta": -0.015,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
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            "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
            "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
            "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
            "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
            "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
            "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
            "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
            "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
            "context.lineup_context_min": 0.8,
            "context.lineup_context_weight": 1.0,
            "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
            "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
            "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
            "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
            "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
            "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
            "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
            "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
            "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
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        }
      }
    },
    "diagnostics": {
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        "raw_confidence": 0.828766,
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          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability",
          "season run-differential edge supports the pick"
        ],
        "score_coherence": {
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          "published_score": {
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        "starter_experience": {
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      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
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          {
            "home_margin": -3.0
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        ],
        "adaptive_parameters": {
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      },
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          "run_differential_per_game": 0.33540372670807456,
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        },
        "away": {
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        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 1.5155,
        "win_pct_edge": 0.1553,
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        "recent_quality_blend": {
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          "alignment": "aligned",
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        "margin_adjustment": 0.6273,
        "reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
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          "recent_alignment": "aligned",
          "large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": false,
          "method": "standard_bounded_season_recent_adjustment"
        },
        "adjusted_score": {
          "away_runs": 2.863,
          "home_runs": 8.9,
          "home_win_probability": 0.92
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      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
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        "home_distribution": {
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        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
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    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.191156896049202,
      "home_runs": 4.971862471537651,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 8,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 8,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 8,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 8,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 8,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260927_HOU@OAK

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickHOU

Published scoreHOU 8 - 6 OAK

Final confidence56.0%

Calibrationraw 73.5% → blended 64.0%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.6% · weight 50.0% · n=229

H2H base featurehome net -10.0 · absolute 10.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -1.0519

Simulation variance2.25

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	5.6495941785803-4.142746491388293	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	6-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	8-6	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	8-6	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	8-6	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	8-6	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	8-6	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "HOU",
    "away_runs": 8,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "confidence": -0.12,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.56,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.44,
    "away_win_probability": 0.56
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.12,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "HOU wins 8-6",
    "away_runs": 8,
    "home_runs": 6
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 8,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "predicted_score_text": "HOU 8 - 6 OAK",
    "confidence": 0.56,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.734518,
    "sample_size": 229,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5459,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.640209,
    "published_confidence": 0.56,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -10.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 10.0,
    "home_average_margin": -2.0,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0577,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0577,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -11.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -1.3168,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.56,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -1.0519
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 8,
        "probability": 0.01153269520089576
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 7,
        "probability": 0.011495033184392293
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 8,
        "probability": 0.011446102783123939
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 7,
        "probability": 0.011408723549180004
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 9,
        "probability": 0.010909499857883686
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.033903175156965636,
      "1": 0.05081716729473839,
      "2": 0.07035276169147696,
      "3": 0.08996062558215581,
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      "6": 0.11678044579875936,
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      "8": 0.09341536829813102,
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      "11": 0.03683369377561705,
      "12": 0.02304210536659606,
      "13": 0.013313727446468231,
      "14": 0.007105224170083437,
      "15": 0.0035023256573156105,
      "16": 0.0015945417160147626
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.018530723809302325,
      "1": 0.028063308721195487,
      "2": 0.04007179589938139,
      "3": 0.053950090982407835,
      "4": 0.06848555793308164,
      "5": 0.08197081572828964,
      "6": 0.09250665082755395,
      "7": 0.09843285924940709,
      "8": 0.0987553620129979,
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      "11": 0.07007177064534462,
      "12": 0.05556194556819272,
      "13": 0.04153988018290249,
      "14": 0.02928238702430968,
      "15": 0.019462613365843408,
      "16": 0.012196894748438264,
      "17": 0.007206938881462074,
      "18": 0.004015187622928967,
      "19": 0.0021091831388140286,
      "20": 0.0010446629198551751
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.25,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 8,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "HOU 8 - 6 OAK",
      "winner": "HOU"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 8,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "HOU 8 - 6 OAK",
      "winner": "HOU"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0633,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.49,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 8,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "winner": "HOU",
      "model_winner": "HOU",
      "simulation_winner": "HOU",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "HOU",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5,
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 8,
        "home_runs": 6
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 8,
        "home_runs": 6
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.0519,
      "winner": "HOU",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 8,
        "home_runs": 6,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "HOU",
    "display_confidence": 0.56,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6057,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.56,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.0519,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.56,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0633,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.5,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.5,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 8,
        "median": 14,
        "max": 14,
        "range": 6
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-8133e99fc8d4e4c7",
      "config_hash": "sha256:1ad22b058ac7f786856b2afec11660ade914953b5b660a1d45855a0be03d5ccc",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-c1d5650d9262b3dc",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-27T09:06:54.240008+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 2.25,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
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      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 8,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260927_LAA@SEA

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickSEA

Published scoreLAA 3 - 5 SEA

Final confidence56.0%

Calibrationraw 56.4% → blended 55.8%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.2% · weight 50.0% · n=279

H2H base featurehome net 4.0 · absolute 4.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.3159

Simulation variance2.25

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.6176926855865745-5.219393250782495	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	3-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	3-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	3-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	3-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "SEA",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.12,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.56,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.56,
    "away_win_probability": 0.44
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.12,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "SEA wins 5-3",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "LAA 3 - 5 SEA",
    "confidence": 0.56,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5636,
    "sample_size": 279,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.552,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.5578,
    "published_confidence": 0.56,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 4.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 4.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.8,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0231,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0231,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.3137,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.32,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.3159
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.018247406535588213
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.017925988138853925
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.01744690816043522
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.01713959011839124
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.017118316654488614
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04590000506874616,
      "1": 0.068272125287155,
      "2": 0.09236255751903003,
      "3": 0.11365022924547595,
      "4": 0.12719396937429897,
      "5": 0.12947459576955728,
      "6": 0.11987384768291737,
      "7": 0.10094531454014366,
      "8": 0.07731606176164099,
      "9": 0.05386108794931847,
      "10": 0.03412733356391707,
      "11": 0.01966760292514507,
      "12": 0.010309137791734327,
      "13": 0.004914904637845052,
      "14": 0.002131226883074605
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05684858055351045,
      "1": 0.0839707461994676,
      "2": 0.11125348772716633,
      "3": 0.13221370997717807,
      "4": 0.1409342614829668,
      "5": 0.13475159398441178,
      "6": 0.11556557202165559,
      "7": 0.08889969487514558,
      "8": 0.06134078117590277,
      "9": 0.03796431511082255,
      "10": 0.021075557494002715,
      "11": 0.010494453038373087,
      "12": 0.004687246359396607
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.25,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "LAA 3 - 5 SEA",
      "winner": "SEA"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "LAA 3 - 5 SEA",
      "winner": "SEA"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0969,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.25,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "SEA",
      "model_winner": "SEA",
      "simulation_winner": "SEA",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 3,
        "published_winner": "SEA",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667,
        "draw_majority_team": "SEA",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.3159,
      "winner": "SEA",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "SEA",
    "display_confidence": 0.56,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.633,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.56,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.3159,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.32,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0969,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.6667,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.3333,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.3333,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 6,
        "median": 8,
        "max": 10,
        "range": 4
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
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      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-27T09:06:54.240008+00:00",
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        "recent.window_games": 10,
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        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
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        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
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        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
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        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
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        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
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        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
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        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
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        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
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        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
        "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
        "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
        "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
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        "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
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        "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
        "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
        "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
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        "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
        "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
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    }
  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
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    "changes": [
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        "old_value": 2.15,
        "new_value": 2.25,
        "risk_tier": "low",
        "evaluation_mode": "artifact_replay"
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    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
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    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-27T18:42:59.985716+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-27T19:10:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.584837,
      "confidence": 0.584837,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "total_runs": 9
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
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            "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
            "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
            "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
            "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
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        }
      }
    },
    "candidate_prediction": {
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      "home_win_probability": 0.585876,
      "confidence": 0.585876,
      "predicted_score": {
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          "created_at_utc": "2026-09-24T09:06:53.755755+00:00",
          "parameters": {
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            "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
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            "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
            "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
            "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
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            "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
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            "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
            "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
            "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
            "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
            "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
            "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
            "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
            "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
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            "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
            "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
            "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
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            "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
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            "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
            "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
            "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
            "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
            "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
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        }
      }
    },
    "diagnostics": {
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      "confidence_governor": {
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        "reasons": [
          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability"
        ],
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        "starter_experience": {
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      },
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        "evidence": [
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            "home_margin": 4.0
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            "home_margin": -2.0
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      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
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        "home": {
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        },
        "away": {
          "team": "LAA",
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        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 0.1925,
        "win_pct_edge": 0.0807,
        "quality_edge": 0.3159,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.3137,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
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          "recent_quality_edge": 0.32,
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          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
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      },
      "score_distribution": {
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        ],
        "home_distribution": {
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        "away_distribution": {
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          "7": 0.08855769797901253,
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          "9": 0.03635083760345536,
          "10": 0.019634946180997273,
          "11": 0.009465113700229351,
          "12": 0.004071953245225886
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        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.6176926855865745,
      "home_runs": 5.219393250782495,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260927_LAD@SF

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickLAD

Published scoreLAD 6 - 3 SF

Final confidence58.0%

Calibrationraw 58.6% → blended 57.7%

Empirical signalhit rate 56.7% · weight 50.0% · n=127

H2H base featurehome net -17.0 · absolute 17.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -1.6311

Simulation variance2.25

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	6.1952280788779195-2.2530065137073514	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	6-2	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	6-3	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	6-3	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	6-3	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	6-3	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "LAD",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "confidence": -0.16,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.58,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.42,
    "away_win_probability": 0.58
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.16,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "LAD wins 6-3",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 3
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "predicted_score_text": "LAD 6 - 3 SF",
    "confidence": 0.58,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5864,
    "sample_size": 127,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5669,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.57665,
    "published_confidence": 0.58,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -17.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 17.0,
    "home_average_margin": -3.4,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0981,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0981,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -6.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -6.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -2.0807,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.796,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -1.6311
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.01954828371386825
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.0195423111003728
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.019090962987667506
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.0190851300999905
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.017749180116119846
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.065610509578725,
      "1": 0.09635796359256105,
      "2": 0.12548467223928364,
      "3": 0.14490474712942605,
      "4": 0.14837591535860192,
      "5": 0.1347203102401079,
      "6": 0.10846549498506376,
      "7": 0.07743530190665761,
      "8": 0.04902021983315085,
      "9": 0.02751695529828516,
      "10": 0.013696650290467018,
      "11": 0.006045291142782789,
      "12": 0.002365968404887225
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04909625105871393,
      "1": 0.07287972313166184,
      "2": 0.09800366647045199,
      "3": 0.11938648332391494,
      "4": 0.13174836136055526,
      "5": 0.13170810810596867,
      "6": 0.1192770878145432,
      "7": 0.09785404196618301,
      "8": 0.07272399664688074,
      "9": 0.04896141193856422,
      "10": 0.029861206804832698,
      "11": 0.01649825468629886,
      "12": 0.008257448589865346,
      "13": 0.0037439581015650874
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.25,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "LAD 6 - 3 SF",
      "winner": "LAD"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "LAD 6 - 3 SF",
      "winner": "LAD"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0029,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -1.146,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "winner": "LAD",
      "model_winner": "LAD",
      "simulation_winner": "LAD",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 3,
        "published_winner": "LAD",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667,
        "draw_majority_team": "LAD",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 3,
      "simulation_margin": 3,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 3
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 3
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 3,
      "final_margin": 3,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.6311,
      "winner": "LAD",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 3,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "LAD",
    "display_confidence": 0.58,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6892,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.58,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "supported_runline_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 3,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.6311,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.796,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0029,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.6667,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.6667,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.3333,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.6667,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 6,
        "median": 6,
        "max": 11,
        "range": 5
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
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          "11": 0.015241195254648439,
          "12": 0.007386621957459068,
          "13": 0.0032281487394828024
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 6.1952280788779195,
      "home_runs": 2.2530065137073514,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260927_NYM@WAS

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickNYM

Published scoreNYM 7 - 5 WAS

Final confidence53.1%

Calibrationraw 56.0% → blended 56.0%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.9% · weight 50.0% · n=288

H2H base featurehome net -10.0 · absolute 10.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.155

Simulation variance2.25

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	6.314753111603038-3.9979935952192145	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	6-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	6-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	7-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	7-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	7-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	7-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYM",
    "away_runs": 7,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": -0.061114,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.530557,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.469443,
    "away_win_probability": 0.530557
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.061114,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYM wins 7-5",
    "away_runs": 7,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 7,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "NYM 7 - 5 WAS",
    "confidence": 0.5305574999999999,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.56,
    "sample_size": 288,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.559,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.5595,
    "published_confidence": 0.530557,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -10.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 10.0,
    "home_average_margin": -2.0,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0577,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0577,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -6.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.2298,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.016,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.155
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.013187941527658646
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 7,
        "probability": 0.013020450624384243
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.01298919568586277
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      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 7,
        "probability": 0.012824228915751577
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      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.01245026690992325
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    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.03712819006872227,
      "1": 0.0555362784218213,
      "2": 0.0764110590258,
      "3": 0.09670348255720367,
      "4": 0.11257305717308697,
      "5": 0.12054057445467453,
      "6": 0.11872399543130621,
      "7": 0.10755985314699823,
      "8": 0.08963308577527465,
      "9": 0.06870572801326073,
      "10": 0.04844221512111135,
      "11": 0.031416767094587114,
      "12": 0.018741547212036948,
      "13": 0.010283852536119204,
      "14": 0.0051905417673481485,
      "15": 0.002409772200648926
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.02696580672141111,
      "1": 0.04060303642002135,
      "2": 0.056984174216249926,
      "3": 0.07454193404464202,
      "4": 0.09088614969293639,
      "5": 0.10328693857855123,
      "6": 0.10940665902183462,
      "7": 0.10801716088784837,
      "8": 0.09940137943681555,
      "9": 0.08525948708916206,
      "10": 0.06816221127680468,
      "11": 0.05079199574439139,
      "12": 0.03527747846190145,
      "13": 0.02283759906314,
      "14": 0.013780151877852548,
      "15": 0.007750116221150925,
      "16": 0.004062684315545234,
      "17": 0.001985036929741095
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    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.25,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "NYM 7 - 5 WAS",
      "winner": "NYM"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "NYM 7 - 5 WAS",
      "winner": "NYM"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0594,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.194,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "NYM",
      "model_winner": "NYM",
      "simulation_winner": "NYM",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "NYM",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5,
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
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        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 7,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.155,
      "winner": "NYM",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 7,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "NYM",
    "display_confidence": 0.5306,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5306,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5306,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.155,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.016,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0594,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.5,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.5,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 1.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 12,
        "median": 14,
        "max": 14,
        "range": 2
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
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        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
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        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
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        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
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        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
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        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
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  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
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    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
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        "risk_tier": "low",
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    "evaluation_modes": [
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    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-27T16:36:18.345146+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-27T17:05:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "away",
      "home_win_probability": 0.46405,
      "confidence": 0.5359499999999999,
      "predicted_score": {
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      "pipeline_provenance": {
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            "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
            "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
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        }
      }
    },
    "candidate_prediction": {
      "predicted_winner": "away",
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      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 5,
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      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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          "config_id": "candidate-c1d5650d9262b3dc",
          "config_hash": "sha256:da7e1fc0092c8fca4370044eb58fa5897f6ef528f3b1de083f3bc7a60a53c065",
          "parent_config_id": "candidate-982561b127534866",
          "created_at_utc": "2026-09-24T09:06:53.755755+00:00",
          "parameters": {
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            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
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            "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
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            "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
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            "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
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            "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
            "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
            "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
            "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
            "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
            "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
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            "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
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    },
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        "starter_experience": {
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      },
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      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
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        "home": {
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        "away": {
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          "run_differential": -30,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.18633540372670807,
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        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 0.2112,
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        "quality_edge": 0.155,
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        "recent_quality_blend": {
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          "recent_quality_edge": 0.016,
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          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
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        "margin_adjustment": 0.0,
        "reason": "season quality edge below action threshold"
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      "score_distribution": {
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        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 6.314753111603038,
      "home_runs": 3.9979935952192145,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260927_PIT@DET

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickPIT

Published scorePIT 4 - 3 DET

Final confidence50.5%

Calibrationraw 51.0% → blended 53.1%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.3% · weight 50.0% · n=682

H2H base featurehome net 1.0 · absolute 1.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.0363

Simulation variance2.25

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.878962326786094-3.9118391936506782	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-3	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by starter_quality_favours_the_other_side, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-3	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-3	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-3	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-3	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "PIT",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "confidence": -0.01,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.505,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.495,
    "away_win_probability": 0.505
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.01,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "PIT wins 4-3",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "predicted_score_text": "PIT 4 - 3 DET",
    "confidence": 0.505,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5101,
    "sample_size": 682,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5528,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.53145,
    "published_confidence": 0.505,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 1.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 1.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.2,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0058,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0058,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.2453,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.352,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.0363
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02405097026405226
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.023897852347280348
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.023578437334532815
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02342832774786068
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.021485205496562555
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.07506615141461212,
      "1": 0.10956165506017164,
      "2": 0.1400433031503364,
      "3": 0.15676728436631782,
      "4": 0.1536872546078035,
      "5": 0.13195006179445723,
      "6": 0.0992134772547187,
      "7": 0.06533126572112263,
      "8": 0.03767565412301166,
      "9": 0.019027856091062837,
      "10": 0.008416048759775268,
      "11": 0.0032599876566103037
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.07220251971798768,
      "1": 0.10558485403911724,
      "2": 0.135740640673266,
      "3": 0.15341830000609313,
      "4": 0.15244157889115614,
      "5": 0.13316457614879956,
      "6": 0.10226640389069623,
      "7": 0.06904563988882323,
      "8": 0.040982508134210394,
      "9": 0.02138551973061804,
      "10": 0.009810702031827814,
      "11": 0.003956756847404638
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.25,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "PIT 4 - 3 DET",
      "winner": "PIT"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "PIT 4 - 3 DET",
      "winner": "PIT"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0057,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.282,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "winner": "PIT",
      "model_winner": "PIT",
      "simulation_winner": "PIT",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "PIT",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "PIT",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
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      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
            "home_runs": 3,
            "away_runs": 3,
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          {
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            "away_runs": 4,
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          {
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            "away_runs": 3,
            "probability": 0.024361133554759197
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 4,
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          {
            "home_runs": 2,
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        ],
        "home_distribution": {
          "0": 0.07377539912250414,
          "1": 0.10958822229934229,
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          "3": 0.15944018732506238,
          "4": 0.1561634502070388,
          "5": 0.13312841361575106,
          "6": 0.09878065009567068,
          "7": 0.06379443051462777,
          "8": 0.03585943243821279,
          "9": 0.017544210113796276,
          "10": 0.007470918351018807,
          "11": 0.002769006160588058
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        "away_distribution": {
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          "2": 0.13723912149736353,
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          "5": 0.1345146896632162,
          "6": 0.10204251713951733,
          "7": 0.06764718138780032,
          "8": 0.03919000711882054,
          "9": 0.01984074944041904,
          "10": 0.0087780468952356,
          "11": 0.0033938669639493237
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.878962326786094,
      "home_runs": 3.9118391936506782,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by starter_quality_favours_the_other_side, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260927_STL@MIL

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickMIL

Published scoreSTL 2 - 5 MIL

Final confidence58.0%

Calibrationraw 69.5% → blended 67.9%

Empirical signalhit rate 59.4% · weight 16.0% · n=32

H2H base featurehome net 13.0 · absolute 13.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 1.4859

Simulation variance2.25

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.6379907880080773-6.473384383220621	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-6	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	3-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	2-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	2-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	2-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	2-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIL",
    "away_runs": 2,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.16,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.58,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.58,
    "away_win_probability": 0.42
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.16,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIL wins 5-2",
    "away_runs": 2,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 2,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "STL 2 - 5 MIL",
    "confidence": 0.58,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.695017,
    "sample_size": 32,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5938,
    "empirical_weight": 0.16,
    "blended_confidence": 0.678822,
    "published_confidence": 0.58,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 13.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 13.0,
    "home_average_margin": 2.6,
    "home_run_delta": 0.075,
    "away_run_delta": -0.075,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 8.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 1.7174,
    "recent_quality_edge": 1.056,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 1.4859
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.021347785654581994
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.020843473060130405
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02010840621502644
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      {
        "home_runs": 6,
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        "probability": 0.019913590724914908
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.019633372285387474
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04484175309924769,
      "1": 0.06674355737295948,
      "2": 0.09047948355326808,
      "3": 0.1117132973752181,
      "4": 0.12562429103984565,
      "5": 0.12866379947290185,
      "6": 0.12001985991769407,
      "7": 0.10196798898667615,
      "8": 0.07890210470861884,
      "9": 0.05560672494227559,
      "10": 0.03569275259229313,
      "11": 0.020866363141362285,
      "12": 0.01111034323754492,
      "13": 0.005387932993979631,
      "14": 0.0023797475661146103
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    "away_distribution": {
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      "1": 0.12137713124659834,
      "2": 0.15251117197511788,
      "3": 0.16591912987209814,
      "4": 0.15628643252728996,
      "5": 0.12746064374460656,
      "6": 0.09000382169227758,
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      "8": 0.02912867142380787,
      "9": 0.01335043939656316,
      "10": 0.005297859737128257
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    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.25,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "STL 2 - 5 MIL",
      "winner": "MIL"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "STL 2 - 5 MIL",
      "winner": "MIL"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.101,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 1.266,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "MIL",
      "model_winner": "MIL",
      "simulation_winner": "MIL",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 1,
        "published_winner": "MIL",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "MIL",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 3,
      "simulation_margin": 3,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 2,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 2,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 3,
      "final_margin": 3,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.4859,
      "winner": "MIL",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 2,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "MIL",
    "display_confidence": 0.58,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.72,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.58,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 3,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.4859,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 1.056,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.101,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 7,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 7,
        "range": 0
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
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      "parent_config_id": "candidate-c1d5650d9262b3dc",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-27T09:06:54.240008+00:00",
      "parameters": {
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        "recent.window_games": 10,
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        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
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        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
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        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
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        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
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        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
        "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
        "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
        "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
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        "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
        "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
        "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
        "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
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        "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
        "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
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  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
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      "parent_config_hash": "sha256:53760a5ddffc6f180dee92a59d27889f1cdba857749a59d2378ee233c5952253"
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    "changes": [
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        "new_value": 2.25,
        "risk_tier": "low",
        "evaluation_mode": "artifact_replay"
      }
    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
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    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-27T18:49:31.374521+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-27T19:10:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.631405,
      "confidence": 0.631405,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "total_runs": 8
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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          "config_id": "candidate-8133e99fc8d4e4c7",
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          "created_at_utc": "2026-09-27T09:06:54.240008+00:00",
          "parameters": {
            "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
            "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
            "confidence.base_cap": 0.56,
            "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
            "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
            "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
            "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
            "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
            "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
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            "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
            "recent.window_games": 10,
            "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
            "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
            "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
            "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
            "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
            "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
            "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
            "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
            "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
            "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
            "h2h.history_limit": 5,
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            "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
            "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
            "simulation.allow_score": true,
            "player.model_weight": 0.5,
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            "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
            "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
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        }
      }
    },
    "candidate_prediction": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.632324,
      "confidence": 0.632324,
      "predicted_score": {
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      },
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      "pipeline_provenance": {
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        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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          "config_hash": "sha256:da7e1fc0092c8fca4370044eb58fa5897f6ef528f3b1de083f3bc7a60a53c065",
          "parent_config_id": "candidate-982561b127534866",
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            "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
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    },
    "diagnostics": {
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            "home_margin": 4.0
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        "away": {
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        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 1.4845,
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        "quality_edge": 1.4859,
        "season_quality_edge": 1.7174,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
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        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
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        "adjusted_score": {
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        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
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      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.6379907880080773,
      "home_runs": 6.473384383220621,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260927_TB@PHI

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickTB

Published scoreTB 4 - 3 PHI

Final confidence57.6%

Calibrationraw 67.2% → blended 60.7%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.1% · weight 50.0% · n=543

H2H base featurehome net -13.0 · absolute 13.0 · n=2

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.6306

Simulation variance2.25

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.030207947715104-5.3853853934747935	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-3	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	3-3	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-3	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-3	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-3	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "TB",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "confidence": -0.15128,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.57564,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.42436,
    "away_win_probability": 0.57564
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.15128,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "TB wins 4-3",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "predicted_score_text": "TB 4 - 3 PHI",
    "confidence": 0.5756397999999999,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.6725,
    "sample_size": 543,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5414,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.60695,
    "published_confidence": 0.57564,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 2,
    "sample_weight": 0.03,
    "home_net_margin": -13.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 13.0,
    "home_average_margin": -6.5,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0975,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0975,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -11.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.5932,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.7,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.6306
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.025365239235151067
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.024943204634170997
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.02428334636890916
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.02387931263202009
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02377219844662334
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.10279845946480115,
      "1": 0.14718371643031197,
      "2": 0.17759866649108444,
      "3": 0.1806036044469907,
      "4": 0.15478180397782057,
      "5": 0.1117944315011993,
      "6": 0.06804985700057954,
      "7": 0.034909291875046045,
      "8": 0.015092515799099947,
      "9": 0.005499067065495297,
      "10": 0.001688585947571054
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05652412162212097,
      "1": 0.08350328674181175,
      "2": 0.11068105080159191,
      "3": 0.13162637877252756,
      "4": 0.14044702658520897,
      "5": 0.13445659871111051,
      "6": 0.11549193257951397,
      "7": 0.08900637883446061,
      "8": 0.06154468768748724,
      "9": 0.03818211382074279,
      "10": 0.02125344422791468,
      "11": 0.010614477663414796,
      "12": 0.0047562852330908624,
      "13": 0.0019122167190034605
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.25,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "TB 4 - 3 PHI",
      "winner": "TB"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "TB 4 - 3 PHI",
      "winner": "TB"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0024,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -1.05,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
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    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
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      "home_runs": 3,
      "winner": "TB",
      "model_winner": "TB",
      "simulation_winner": "TB",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
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        "draw_count": 4,
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        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.25,
        "draw_majority_team": "PHI",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
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      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
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      "simulation_score": {
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        "home_runs": 3
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      "review_required": false,
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      "score_reviewed": {
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        "home_runs": 3,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
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    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
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    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
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      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
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        "median": 6,
        "max": 6,
        "range": 3
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          "run_differential_per_game": 0.5590062111801242,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": -0.4907,
        "win_pct_edge": -0.0683,
        "quality_edge": -0.6306,
        "season_quality_edge": -0.5932,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": -0.5932,
          "recent_quality_edge": -0.7,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": -0.6306
        },
        "margin_adjustment": -0.2649,
        "reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
          "adjustment": -0.2649,
          "cap": 1.4,
          "scale": 0.42,
          "quality_edge": -0.6306,
          "season_quality_edge": -0.5932,
          "recent_alignment": "aligned",
          "large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": false,
          "method": "standard_bounded_season_recent_adjustment"
        },
        "adjusted_score": {
          "away_runs": 4.844,
          "home_runs": 1.852,
          "home_win_probability": 0.2456
        }
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
            "home_runs": 3,
            "away_runs": 4,
            "probability": 0.026288996364954333
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 2,
            "away_runs": 4,
            "probability": 0.025831425686413913
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 3,
            "away_runs": 5,
            "probability": 0.025116729771271384
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 2,
            "away_runs": 5,
            "probability": 0.02467956286978108
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 3,
            "away_runs": 3,
            "probability": 0.024563722131258715
          }
        ],
        "home_distribution": {
          "0": 0.10178328008104484,
          "1": 0.1481833863156096,
          "2": 0.1803739709850748,
          "3": 0.18356906525887168,
          "4": 0.15619833675122916,
          "5": 0.1111231623946757,
          "6": 0.06609735154231074,
          "7": 0.032871142757669815,
          "8": 0.013667743677669967,
          "9": 0.004751493365215562,
          "10": 0.0013810668706280332
        },
        "away_distribution": {
          "0": 0.055247257696196136,
          "1": 0.08311181899526125,
          "2": 0.11161539622475528,
          "3": 0.13381188217425746,
          "4": 0.14321038421087573,
          "5": 0.13682441393843467,
          "6": 0.11669760407093059,
          "7": 0.08885247688738318,
          "8": 0.060392970919506,
          "9": 0.036644812702457605,
          "10": 0.01984942243208363,
          "11": 0.009598259752333523,
          "12": 0.004143299995524893
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.030207947715104,
      "home_runs": 5.3853853934747935,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260927_TEX@MIN

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickTEX

Published scoreTEX 5 - 4 MIN

Final confidence51.2%

Calibrationraw 51.0% → blended 53.2%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.4% · weight 50.0% · n=719

H2H base featurehome net 22.0 · absolute 22.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.0204

Simulation variance2.25

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.629659018624814-4.336498722476646	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "TEX",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": -0.02394,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.51197,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.48803,
    "away_win_probability": 0.51197
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.02394,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "TEX wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "TEX 5 - 4 MIN",
    "confidence": 0.5119703800000001,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5101,
    "sample_size": 719,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5535,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.5318,
    "published_confidence": 0.51197,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 22.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 22.0,
    "home_average_margin": 4.4,
    "home_run_delta": 0.1269,
    "away_run_delta": -0.1269,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 8.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 6.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 10.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.1366,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.312,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.0204
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.017305208362976606
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.017254490991820273
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.017187014283191113
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.017136643310233936
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.01580961764210208
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04954747097090136,
      "1": 0.07352804000045376,
      "2": 0.09878885283227842,
      "3": 0.12016731312555859,
      "4": 0.13233911150658376,
      "5": 0.13195125764802296,
      "6": 0.11911386277097818,
      "7": 0.09734968239830077,
      "8": 0.07203278807029473,
      "9": 0.04825578289246845,
      "10": 0.029267926962995402,
      "11": 0.01607155928781765,
      "12": 0.00799001367003404,
      "13": 0.0035963378633118884
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04778460859044301,
      "1": 0.07098913301435167,
      "2": 0.09568940415891473,
      "3": 0.11703182226831609,
      "4": 0.1298710115817581,
      "5": 0.13076412684027797,
      "6": 0.11946292718850215,
      "7": 0.09902522201076205,
      "8": 0.07447776516448563,
      "9": 0.050824789309959,
      "10": 0.031469705338159994,
      "11": 0.017679822678661517,
      "12": 0.009012209362334657,
      "13": 0.004168240591089288,
      "14": 0.0017492119019839165
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.25,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "TEX 5 - 4 MIN",
      "winner": "TEX"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "TEX 5 - 4 MIN",
      "winner": "TEX"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0281,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.522,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "TEX",
      "model_winner": "TEX",
      "simulation_winner": "TEX",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 3,
        "published_winner": "TEX",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "TEX",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.0204,
      "winner": "TEX",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "TEX",
    "display_confidence": 0.512,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5813,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.512,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.0204,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.312,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0281,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.3333,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.3333,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 4,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 8,
        "range": 4
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
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      "config_hash": "sha256:1ad22b058ac7f786856b2afec11660ade914953b5b660a1d45855a0be03d5ccc",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-c1d5650d9262b3dc",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-27T09:06:54.240008+00:00",
      "parameters": {
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        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
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        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
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        "score.variance_multiplier": 2.25,
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        "recent.window_games": 10,
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        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
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        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
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        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
        "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
        "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
        "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
        "context.lineup_context_min": 0.8,
        "context.lineup_context_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
        "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
        "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
        "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
        "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
        "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
        "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
      }
    }
  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
      "config_id": "candidate-c1d5650d9262b3dc",
      "config_hash": "sha256:da7e1fc0092c8fca4370044eb58fa5897f6ef528f3b1de083f3bc7a60a53c065",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-982561b127534866",
      "parent_config_hash": "sha256:53760a5ddffc6f180dee92a59d27889f1cdba857749a59d2378ee233c5952253"
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    "changes": [
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        "parameter": "score.variance_multiplier",
        "old_value": 2.15,
        "new_value": 2.25,
        "risk_tier": "low",
        "evaluation_mode": "artifact_replay"
      }
    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
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    ],
    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-27T18:49:37.380833+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-27T19:10:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "away",
      "home_win_probability": 0.483432,
      "confidence": 0.516568,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "total_runs": 9
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
          "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
          "config_id": "candidate-8133e99fc8d4e4c7",
          "config_hash": "sha256:1ad22b058ac7f786856b2afec11660ade914953b5b660a1d45855a0be03d5ccc",
          "parent_config_id": "candidate-c1d5650d9262b3dc",
          "created_at_utc": "2026-09-27T09:06:54.240008+00:00",
          "parameters": {
            "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
            "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
            "confidence.base_cap": 0.56,
            "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
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            "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
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            "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
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            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
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            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
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    },
    "candidate_prediction": {
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      "confidence": 0.516642,
      "predicted_score": {
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      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
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        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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          "parent_config_id": "candidate-982561b127534866",
          "created_at_utc": "2026-09-24T09:06:53.755755+00:00",
          "parameters": {
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            "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
            "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
            "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
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            "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
            "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
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            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
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            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
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    },
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      "confidence_governor": {
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        "calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.0204,
        "reasons": [
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        ],
        "score_coherence": {
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          "published_score": {
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          },
          "margin": -1,
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        "starter_experience": {
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      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
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        "home_net_margin": 22.0,
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        "home_average_margin": 4.4,
        "home_run_delta": 0.1269,
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        "evidence": [
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      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
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        "home": {
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          "run_differential_per_game": -0.37267080745341613,
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        },
        "away": {
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        "run_differential_edge_per_game": -0.0994,
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        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
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    },
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      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
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      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
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  },
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    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
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      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
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      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
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      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

Every reviewed game

Date	Game	Pick	Final confidence	Raw confidence	Empirical hit rate	Empirical weight	Pred A-H	Actual A-H	Result	Largest recorded movement	Pipeline	Roadmap signals
20260927	20260927_ARI@SD	ARI	51.1%	51.0%	55.4%	50.0%	6.0-4.0	4-9	miss	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.5101, "sample_size": 681, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5536, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.53185, "published_confidence": 0.510815, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -1.0, "absolute_net_margin": 1.0, "home_average_margin": -0.2, "home_run_delta": -0.0058, "away_run_delta": 0.0058, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 3.0 }, { "home_margin": -7.0 }, { "home_margin": 4.0 }, { "home_margin": -6.0 }, { "home_margin": 5.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.1739, "recent_quality_edge": 0.3, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.218 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.018788937777961208 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01841548708876178 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.018213197731838507 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.017851190505785593 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.017438993284560795 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.05438607200724093, "1": 0.08045611194386895, "2": 0.10708620943737558, "3": 0.1282363674218316, "4": 0.13816308596745053, "5": 0.13392942345670128, "6": 0.11680545626580846, "7": 0.09165442088787944, "8": 0.06470634392801054, "9": 0.04110015525706945, "10": 0.023487847564154972, "11": 0.012076640365850828, "12": 0.005586659518557123, "13": 0.0023252059782004238 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.052490155300874176, "1": 0.07774674338896906, "2": 0.10386176863950734, "3": 0.12514064220362323, "4": 0.13599101124874732, "5": 0.1332880411566678, "6": 0.11782605200179402, "7": 0.09394217800686316, "8": 0.06755369085737498, "9": 0.04381337387829081, "10": 0.025629106835708328, "11": 0.013521641075198397, "12": 0.006434199078549912, "13": 0.002761396327831488 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.25, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "ARI 6 - 4 SD", "winner": "ARI" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "ARI 6 - 4 SD", "winner": "ARI" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0503, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.37, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "ARI", "model_winner": "ARI", "simulation_winner": "ARI", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 4, "published_winner": "ARI", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "ARI", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": -0.218, "winner": "ARI", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260927	20260927_ATL@MIA	MIA	50.5%	53.5%	54.4%	50.0%	4.0-5.0	3-5	hit	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.534653, "sample_size": 575, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5443, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.539476, "published_confidence": 0.505, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -15.0, "absolute_net_margin": 15.0, "home_average_margin": -3.0, "home_run_delta": -0.0865, "away_run_delta": 0.0865, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -5.0 }, { "home_margin": 3.0 }, { "home_margin": -8.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.8665, "recent_quality_edge": -0.244, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.6486 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.01879252567582952 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.01834968276533369 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.018286738419500903 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01785581430611345 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.01739032430162938 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.05313747959369345, "1": 0.07867257179407998, "2": 0.10496656774399866, "3": 0.12620713232480718, "4": 0.1367483371335385, "5": 0.13352588408670993, "6": 0.11749357633285612, "7": 0.09316827130280064, "8": 0.06657745726759093, "9": 0.04287376514288838, "10": 0.024880625691614474, "11": 0.013011765379481434, "12": 0.006132201298568239, "13": 0.0026043649073721918 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.053727296411862344, "1": 0.07951545921622881, "2": 0.10596971948049938, "3": 0.12717027984513807, "4": 0.13742416229513713, "5": 0.1337254902166993, "6": 0.11717606999664779, "7": 0.09245646539383538, "8": 0.06569151438506744, "9": 0.04202956452056519, "10": 0.02421442360407214, "11": 0.012562237796326496, "12": 0.005868586545242527, "13": 0.0024687302926780855 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.25, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "ATL 4 - 5 MIA", "winner": "MIA" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "ATL 4 - 5 MIA", "winner": "MIA" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.068, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.454, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "MIA", "model_winner": "MIA", "simulation_winner": "MIA", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "MIA", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5, "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": -0.6486, "winner": "MIA", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260927	20260927_BAL@NYY	NYY	52.0%	58.9%	55.8%	50.0%	5.0-6.0	Official result pending	void_not_final_or_postponed	Enhanced Prediction (2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.589259, "sample_size": 800, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5575, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.57338, "published_confidence": 0.519546, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 4.0, "absolute_net_margin": 4.0, "home_average_margin": 0.8, "home_run_delta": 0.0231, "away_run_delta": -0.0231, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 3.0 }, { "home_margin": -8.0 }, { "home_margin": 5.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 1.118, "recent_quality_edge": -0.236, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.6441 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.015560277883316964 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.015443206829582884 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.015434788380284632 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.01531866147346507 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01444130257049305 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.03605963134948096, "1": 0.05397537039259128, "2": 0.0744181960430895, "3": 0.09450870301584419, "4": 0.11055378763425736, "5": 0.11911997884159857, "6": 0.11822375439442986, "7": 0.1080771899877771, "8": 0.09100651840925159, "9": 0.07058625062851821, "10": 0.05042859701007403, "11": 0.033185075927962944, "12": 0.020114901199286897, "13": 0.011230579071376751, "14": 0.005775579340823469, "15": 0.0027358867536375576 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.04756980749794565, "1": 0.07067979213789004, "2": 0.09531194522220308, "3": 0.11665076803567553, "4": 0.12957346475698467, "5": 0.1306269362590171, "6": 0.11951918140694263, "7": 0.09925003734542122, "8": 0.07480178258947993, "9": 0.05116599407432596, "10": 0.03176428504910764, "11": 0.017897194300115014, "12": 0.009152063426141131, "13": 0.004247577281823058, "14": 0.0017891706169271995 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.25, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "BAL 5 - 6 NYY", "winner": "NYY" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "BAL 5 - 6 NYY", "winner": "NYY" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0053, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.026, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "winner": "NYY", "model_winner": "NYY", "simulation_winner": "NYY", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "NYY", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5, "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.6441, "winner": "NYY", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260927	20260927_CHC@BOS	CHC	50.5%	46.0%	54.1%	50.0%	4.0-3.0	6-2	hit	Enhanced Prediction (2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.4601, "sample_size": 543, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5414, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.50075, "published_confidence": 0.505149, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 2, "sample_weight": 0.03, "home_net_margin": 3.0, "absolute_net_margin": 3.0, "home_average_margin": 1.5, "home_run_delta": 0.0225, "away_run_delta": -0.0225, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.3882, "recent_quality_edge": -0.024, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.2607 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.029383700649558718 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.02778001810339291 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.02741811341741829 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02710160893474656 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.026608606813468372 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.09172854398067469, "1": 0.13237168861944973, "2": 0.1635412816131467, "3": 0.17298217894893925, "4": 0.15664517006500592, "5": 0.12144351604917995, "6": 0.08060710710699964, "7": 0.045805119074394954, "8": 0.022284165566779278, "9": 0.009281548006219121, "10": 0.003309680969210848 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.0879746086753731, "1": 0.1272878479517881, "2": 0.15850253236497586, "3": 0.16986547879150127, "4": 0.15667283820460137, "5": 0.12436608278195374, "6": 0.08496300432101335, "7": 0.04995482331988761, "8": 0.025278113226768803, "9": 0.01100858609825407, "10": 0.004126084263882452 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.25, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "CHC 4 - 3 BOS", "winner": "CHC" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "CHC 4 - 3 BOS", "winner": "CHC" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0533, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.326, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "winner": "CHC", "model_winner": "CHC", "simulation_winner": "CHC", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "CHC", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "CHC", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.2607, "winner": "CHC", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260927	20260927_CIN@TOR	TOR	51.2%	51.0%	55.7%	50.0%	4.0-5.0	1-5	hit	Variance Applied (0.5778)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.5101, "sample_size": 778, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5566, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.53335, "published_confidence": 0.511591, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 2, "sample_weight": 0.03, "home_net_margin": -3.0, "absolute_net_margin": 3.0, "home_average_margin": -1.5, "home_run_delta": -0.0225, "away_run_delta": 0.0225, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -4.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.6863, "recent_quality_edge": -0.408, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.3033 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.019257563954809338 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.018711973556305998 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.018498638556385873 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.018000695984678388 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.0179745494449369 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.05397739188979234, "1": 0.07987266282782957, "2": 0.10639407062351858, "3": 0.127576205837264, "4": 0.13770665636471252, "5": 0.13380525794802323, "6": 0.11703733404877903, "7": 0.09215282564633, "8": 0.06531694848338757, "9": 0.041675048337690326, "10": 0.02393642748071255, "11": 0.012375864541144685, "12": 0.005760030152038387, "13": 0.002413275818777227 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.05594437241598566, "1": 0.08267788516162973, "2": 0.10971062226321912, "3": 0.1307176897607913, "4": 0.13984483004079468, "5": 0.13433365564691882, "6": 0.11586429347660589, "7": 0.08973064060056507, "8": 0.06239622063433038, "9": 0.038958494714177366, "10": 0.021840994905488992, "11": 0.0109943367043214, "12": 0.0049692633730431405, "13": 0.0020167003021286513 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.25, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "CIN 4 - 5 TOR", "winner": "TOR" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "CIN 4 - 5 TOR", "winner": "TOR" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.1154, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.408, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "TOR", "model_winner": "TOR", "simulation_winner": "TOR", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "TOR", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5, "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.3033, "winner": "TOR", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260927	20260927_CLE@KC	CLE	56.0%	90.9%	56.0%	50.0%	6.0-4.0	2-3	miss	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.909286, "sample_size": 293, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5597, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.734493, "published_confidence": 0.56, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -11.0, "absolute_net_margin": 11.0, "home_average_margin": -2.2, "home_run_delta": -0.0635, "away_run_delta": 0.0635, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -6.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": -10.0 }, { "home_margin": 5.0 }, { "home_margin": 3.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.9845, "recent_quality_edge": -1.304, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -1.0963 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.015994218656248508 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.01588013305600087 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.015528817648898347 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.01541805172024083 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.015027899452593833 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.06433843033623264, "1": 0.09456884162445255, "2": 0.12346428748350588, "3": 0.14316943673155677, "4": 0.14746024634650184, "5": 0.134901031588968, "6": 0.10961532181999464, "7": 0.07911210360178365, "8": 0.05071428172265698, "9": 0.028875751917359013, "10": 0.014603333450518294, "11": 0.006559736263846264, "12": 0.00261719711262357 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.026320551214493636, "1": 0.0396486066546728, "2": 0.05571693773903036, "3": 0.07304204236234586, "4": 0.0893274501038506, "5": 0.10191153090359892, "6": 0.10846461370114166, "7": 0.10769094348781812, "8": 0.09974626663402815, "9": 0.08618674460504351, "10": 0.06947213797931326, "11": 0.052240486325978316, "12": 0.03664629876953908, "13": 0.02398166789353912, "14": 0.014640469716201053, "15": 0.008337906035261224, "16": 0.00442981247801881, "17": 0.0021955333961254345 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.25, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "CLE 6 - 4 KC", "winner": "CLE" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "CLE 6 - 4 KC", "winner": "CLE" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": true, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.028, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -1.374, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "CLE", "model_winner": "CLE", "simulation_winner": "CLE", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "CLE", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "CLE", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": true, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": 1.0963, "winner": "CLE", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260927	20260927_COL@CHW	CHW	56.0%	82.9%	55.3%	50.0%	5.0-8.0	2-4	hit	Enhanced Prediction (2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.828766, "sample_size": 237, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5527, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.690733, "published_confidence": 0.56, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 2, "sample_weight": 0.03, "home_net_margin": 2.0, "absolute_net_margin": 2.0, "home_average_margin": 1.0, "home_run_delta": 0.015, "away_run_delta": -0.015, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": 5.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 1.7484, "recent_quality_edge": 1.02, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 1.4935 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 8, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.012052786961368137 }, { "home_runs": 7, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.011881290921668447 }, { "home_runs": 8, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.011685786289297876 }, { "home_runs": 9, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.011545299616244726 }, { "home_runs": 7, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.01151951220880388 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.017506366809694727, "1": 0.026531556705292395, "2": 0.03796848935084617, "3": 0.051307137036693505, "4": 0.06546755505919616, "5": 0.07888026122646896, "6": 0.08974379603672693, "7": 0.09641273623220155, "8": 0.09780436972972653, "9": 0.09368627819664817, "10": 0.08473983059719581, "11": 0.07237574946083943, "12": 0.058370368329261756, "13": 0.044451423277575286, "14": 0.03196485846250995, "15": 0.021704699519814918, "16": 0.01391645588783234, "17": 0.00842553319950353, "18": 0.0048168155751858776, "19": 0.00260025847286118, "20": 0.0013254608339247555 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.03933990899929951, "1": 0.058760434919097854, "2": 0.080500840340172, "3": 0.10115319109052733, "4": 0.11657959008198729, "5": 0.12323362437358286, "6": 0.11948122892249581, "7": 0.10625121426962149, "8": 0.08666263402549892, "9": 0.06483262849433548, "10": 0.044485567562328326, "11": 0.027996800585158278, "12": 0.016160747090853536, "13": 0.008556146763141788, "14": 0.0041548828089952115, "15": 0.0018505596729044035 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.25, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 8, "score_text": "COL 5 - 8 CHW", "winner": "CHW" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 8, "score_text": "COL 5 - 8 CHW", "winner": "CHW" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": true, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0479, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 1.02, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 8, "winner": "CHW", "model_winner": "CHW", "simulation_winner": "CHW", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "CHW", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667, "draw_majority_team": "CHW", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": true, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 3, "simulation_margin": 3, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 8 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 8 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 3, "final_margin": 3, "winner_quality_edge": 1.4935, "winner": "CHW", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 8, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260927	20260927_HOU@OAK	HOU	56.0%	73.5%	54.6%	50.0%	8.0-6.0	9-0	hit	Variance Applied (0.4932)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.734518, "sample_size": 229, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5459, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.640209, "published_confidence": 0.56, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -10.0, "absolute_net_margin": 10.0, "home_average_margin": -2.0, "home_run_delta": -0.0577, "away_run_delta": 0.0577, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -11.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -1.3168, "recent_quality_edge": -0.56, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -1.0519 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 8, "probability": 0.01153269520089576 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.011495033184392293 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 8, "probability": 0.011446102783123939 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.011408723549180004 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 9, "probability": 0.010909499857883686 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.033903175156965636, "1": 0.05081716729473839, "2": 0.07035276169147696, "3": 0.08996062558215581, "4": 0.1062488901232442, "5": 0.11590360816678932, "6": 0.11678044579875936, "7": 0.1086785712319119, "8": 0.09341536829813102, "9": 0.07416403654926597, "10": 0.054383731974466575, "11": 0.03683369377561705, "12": 0.02304210536659606, "13": 0.013313727446468231, "14": 0.007105224170083437, "15": 0.0035023256573156105, "16": 0.0015945417160147626 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.018530723809302325, "1": 0.028063308721195487, "2": 0.04007179589938139, "3": 0.053950090982407835, "4": 0.06848555793308164, "5": 0.08197081572828964, "6": 0.09250665082755395, "7": 0.09843285924940709, "8": 0.0987553620129979, "9": 0.09341889203508748, "10": 0.08332247870320383, "11": 0.07007177064534462, "12": 0.05556194556819272, "13": 0.04153988018290249, "14": 0.02928238702430968, "15": 0.019462613365843408, "16": 0.012196894748438264, "17": 0.007206938881462074, "18": 0.004015187622928967, "19": 0.0021091831388140286, "20": 0.0010446629198551751 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.25, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 8, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "HOU 8 - 6 OAK", "winner": "HOU" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 8, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "HOU 8 - 6 OAK", "winner": "HOU" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0633, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.49, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 8, "home_runs": 6, "winner": "HOU", "model_winner": "HOU", "simulation_winner": "HOU", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "HOU", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5, "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 8, "home_runs": 6 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 8, "home_runs": 6 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": 1.0519, "winner": "HOU", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 8, "home_runs": 6, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260927	20260927_LAA@SEA	SEA	56.0%	56.4%	55.2%	50.0%	3.0-5.0	3-7	hit	Embedded Savant Run Environment (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.5636, "sample_size": 279, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.552, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.5578, "published_confidence": 0.56, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 4.0, "absolute_net_margin": 4.0, "home_average_margin": 0.8, "home_run_delta": 0.0231, "away_run_delta": -0.0231, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 4.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": 5.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.3137, "recent_quality_edge": 0.32, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.3159 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.018247406535588213 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.017925988138853925 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01744690816043522 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01713959011839124 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.017118316654488614 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.04590000506874616, "1": 0.068272125287155, "2": 0.09236255751903003, "3": 0.11365022924547595, "4": 0.12719396937429897, "5": 0.12947459576955728, "6": 0.11987384768291737, "7": 0.10094531454014366, "8": 0.07731606176164099, "9": 0.05386108794931847, "10": 0.03412733356391707, "11": 0.01966760292514507, "12": 0.010309137791734327, "13": 0.004914904637845052, "14": 0.002131226883074605 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.05684858055351045, "1": 0.0839707461994676, "2": 0.11125348772716633, "3": 0.13221370997717807, "4": 0.1409342614829668, "5": 0.13475159398441178, "6": 0.11556557202165559, "7": 0.08889969487514558, "8": 0.06134078117590277, "9": 0.03796431511082255, "10": 0.021075557494002715, "11": 0.010494453038373087, "12": 0.004687246359396607 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.25, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "LAA 3 - 5 SEA", "winner": "SEA" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "LAA 3 - 5 SEA", "winner": "SEA" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0969, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.25, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "SEA", "model_winner": "SEA", "simulation_winner": "SEA", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "SEA", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667, "draw_majority_team": "SEA", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": 0.3159, "winner": "SEA", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260927	20260927_LAD@SF	LAD	58.0%	58.6%	56.7%	50.0%	6.0-3.0	5-1	hit	Enhanced Prediction (-3.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.5864, "sample_size": 127, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5669, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.57665, "published_confidence": 0.58, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -17.0, "absolute_net_margin": 17.0, "home_average_margin": -3.4, "home_run_delta": -0.0981, "away_run_delta": 0.0981, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": -6.0 }, { "home_margin": -6.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -2.0807, "recent_quality_edge": -0.796, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -1.6311 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.01954828371386825 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.0195423111003728 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.019090962987667506 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.0190851300999905 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.017749180116119846 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.065610509578725, "1": 0.09635796359256105, "2": 0.12548467223928364, "3": 0.14490474712942605, "4": 0.14837591535860192, "5": 0.1347203102401079, "6": 0.10846549498506376, "7": 0.07743530190665761, "8": 0.04902021983315085, "9": 0.02751695529828516, "10": 0.013696650290467018, "11": 0.006045291142782789, "12": 0.002365968404887225 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.04909625105871393, "1": 0.07287972313166184, "2": 0.09800366647045199, "3": 0.11938648332391494, "4": 0.13174836136055526, "5": 0.13170810810596867, "6": 0.1192770878145432, "7": 0.09785404196618301, "8": 0.07272399664688074, "9": 0.04896141193856422, "10": 0.029861206804832698, "11": 0.01649825468629886, "12": 0.008257448589865346, "13": 0.0037439581015650874 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.25, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "LAD 6 - 3 SF", "winner": "LAD" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "LAD 6 - 3 SF", "winner": "LAD" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": true, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0029, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -1.146, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 3, "winner": "LAD", "model_winner": "LAD", "simulation_winner": "LAD", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "LAD", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667, "draw_majority_team": "LAD", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": true, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 3, "simulation_margin": 3, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 3 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 3 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 3, "final_margin": 3, "winner_quality_edge": 1.6311, "winner": "LAD", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 3, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260927	20260927_NYM@WAS	NYM	53.1%	56.0%	55.9%	50.0%	7.0-5.0	4-6	miss	Enhanced Prediction (-1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.56, "sample_size": 288, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.559, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.5595, "published_confidence": 0.530557, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -10.0, "absolute_net_margin": 10.0, "home_average_margin": -2.0, "home_run_delta": -0.0577, "away_run_delta": 0.0577, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -6.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.2298, "recent_quality_edge": 0.016, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.155 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.013187941527658646 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.013020450624384243 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.01298919568586277 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.012824228915751577 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01245026690992325 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.03712819006872227, "1": 0.0555362784218213, "2": 0.0764110590258, "3": 0.09670348255720367, "4": 0.11257305717308697, "5": 0.12054057445467453, "6": 0.11872399543130621, "7": 0.10755985314699823, "8": 0.08963308577527465, "9": 0.06870572801326073, "10": 0.04844221512111135, "11": 0.031416767094587114, "12": 0.018741547212036948, "13": 0.010283852536119204, "14": 0.0051905417673481485, "15": 0.002409772200648926 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.02696580672141111, "1": 0.04060303642002135, "2": 0.056984174216249926, "3": 0.07454193404464202, "4": 0.09088614969293639, "5": 0.10328693857855123, "6": 0.10940665902183462, "7": 0.10801716088784837, "8": 0.09940137943681555, "9": 0.08525948708916206, "10": 0.06816221127680468, "11": 0.05079199574439139, "12": 0.03527747846190145, "13": 0.02283759906314, "14": 0.013780151877852548, "15": 0.007750116221150925, "16": 0.004062684315545234, "17": 0.001985036929741095 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.25, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "NYM 7 - 5 WAS", "winner": "NYM" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "NYM 7 - 5 WAS", "winner": "NYM" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0594, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.194, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "NYM", "model_winner": "NYM", "simulation_winner": "NYM", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "NYM", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5, "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": -0.155, "winner": "NYM", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260927	20260927_PIT@DET	PIT	50.5%	51.0%	55.3%	50.0%	4.0-3.0	4-2	hit	Variance Applied (0.0329)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.5101, "sample_size": 682, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5528, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.53145, "published_confidence": 0.505, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 1.0, "absolute_net_margin": 1.0, "home_average_margin": 0.2, "home_run_delta": 0.0058, "away_run_delta": -0.0058, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": 3.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.2453, "recent_quality_edge": -0.352, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.0363 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.02405097026405226 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.023897852347280348 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.023578437334532815 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02342832774786068 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.021485205496562555 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.07506615141461212, "1": 0.10956165506017164, "2": 0.1400433031503364, "3": 0.15676728436631782, "4": 0.1536872546078035, "5": 0.13195006179445723, "6": 0.0992134772547187, "7": 0.06533126572112263, "8": 0.03767565412301166, "9": 0.019027856091062837, "10": 0.008416048759775268, "11": 0.0032599876566103037 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.07220251971798768, "1": 0.10558485403911724, "2": 0.135740640673266, "3": 0.15341830000609313, "4": 0.15244157889115614, "5": 0.13316457614879956, "6": 0.10226640389069623, "7": 0.06904563988882323, "8": 0.040982508134210394, "9": 0.02138551973061804, "10": 0.009810702031827814, "11": 0.003956756847404638 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.25, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "PIT 4 - 3 DET", "winner": "PIT" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "PIT 4 - 3 DET", "winner": "PIT" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0057, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.282, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "winner": "PIT", "model_winner": "PIT", "simulation_winner": "PIT", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "PIT", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "PIT", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": -0.0363, "winner": "PIT", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260927	20260927_STL@MIL	MIL	58.0%	69.5%	59.4%	16.0%	2.0-5.0	4-6	hit	Embedded Savant Run Environment (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.695017, "sample_size": 32, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5938, "empirical_weight": 0.16, "blended_confidence": 0.678822, "published_confidence": 0.58, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 13.0, "absolute_net_margin": 13.0, "home_average_margin": 2.6, "home_run_delta": 0.075, "away_run_delta": -0.075, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": 4.0 }, { "home_margin": 4.0 }, { "home_margin": -4.0 }, { "home_margin": 8.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 1.7174, "recent_quality_edge": 1.056, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 1.4859 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.021347785654581994 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.020843473060130405 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02010840621502644 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.019913590724914908 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.019633372285387474 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.04484175309924769, "1": 0.06674355737295948, "2": 0.09047948355326808, "3": 0.1117132973752181, "4": 0.12562429103984565, "5": 0.12866379947290185, "6": 0.12001985991769407, "7": 0.10196798898667615, "8": 0.07890210470861884, "9": 0.05560672494227559, "10": 0.03569275259229313, "11": 0.020866363141362285, "12": 0.01111034323754492, "13": 0.005387932993979631, "14": 0.0023797475661146103 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.08363770210059782, "1": 0.12137713124659834, "2": 0.15251117197511788, "3": 0.16591912987209814, "4": 0.15628643252728996, "5": 0.12746064374460656, "6": 0.09000382169227758, "7": 0.0550269962839143, "8": 0.02912867142380787, "9": 0.01335043939656316, "10": 0.005297859737128257 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.25, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "STL 2 - 5 MIL", "winner": "MIL" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "STL 2 - 5 MIL", "winner": "MIL" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": true, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.101, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 1.266, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "MIL", "model_winner": "MIL", "simulation_winner": "MIL", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 1, "published_winner": "MIL", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "MIL", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": true, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 3, "simulation_margin": 3, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 3, "final_margin": 3, "winner_quality_edge": 1.4859, "winner": "MIL", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260927	20260927_TB@PHI	TB	57.6%	67.2%	54.1%	50.0%	4.0-3.0	3-7	miss	Enhanced Prediction (2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.6725, "sample_size": 543, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5414, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.60695, "published_confidence": 0.57564, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 2, "sample_weight": 0.03, "home_net_margin": -13.0, "absolute_net_margin": 13.0, "home_average_margin": -6.5, "home_run_delta": -0.0975, "away_run_delta": 0.0975, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -11.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.5932, "recent_quality_edge": -0.7, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.6306 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.025365239235151067 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.024943204634170997 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.02428334636890916 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.02387931263202009 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.02377219844662334 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.10279845946480115, "1": 0.14718371643031197, "2": 0.17759866649108444, "3": 0.1806036044469907, "4": 0.15478180397782057, "5": 0.1117944315011993, "6": 0.06804985700057954, "7": 0.034909291875046045, "8": 0.015092515799099947, "9": 0.005499067065495297, "10": 0.001688585947571054 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.05652412162212097, "1": 0.08350328674181175, "2": 0.11068105080159191, "3": 0.13162637877252756, "4": 0.14044702658520897, "5": 0.13445659871111051, "6": 0.11549193257951397, "7": 0.08900637883446061, "8": 0.06154468768748724, "9": 0.03818211382074279, "10": 0.02125344422791468, "11": 0.010614477663414796, "12": 0.0047562852330908624, "13": 0.0019122167190034605 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.25, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "TB 4 - 3 PHI", "winner": "TB" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "TB 4 - 3 PHI", "winner": "TB" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": true, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0024, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -1.05, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "winner": "TB", "model_winner": "TB", "simulation_winner": "TB", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 4, "published_winner": "TB", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.25, "draw_majority_team": "PHI", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": true, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.6306, "winner": "TB", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260927	20260927_TEX@MIN	TEX	51.2%	51.0%	55.4%	50.0%	5.0-4.0	4-6	miss	Variance Applied (0.7068)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.5101, "sample_size": 719, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5535, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.5318, "published_confidence": 0.51197, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 22.0, "absolute_net_margin": 22.0, "home_average_margin": 4.4, "home_run_delta": 0.1269, "away_run_delta": -0.1269, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -4.0 }, { "home_margin": 8.0 }, { "home_margin": 6.0 }, { "home_margin": 10.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.1366, "recent_quality_edge": 0.312, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.0204 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.017305208362976606 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.017254490991820273 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.017187014283191113 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.017136643310233936 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.01580961764210208 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.04954747097090136, "1": 0.07352804000045376, "2": 0.09878885283227842, "3": 0.12016731312555859, "4": 0.13233911150658376, "5": 0.13195125764802296, "6": 0.11911386277097818, "7": 0.09734968239830077, "8": 0.07203278807029473, "9": 0.04825578289246845, "10": 0.029267926962995402, "11": 0.01607155928781765, "12": 0.00799001367003404, "13": 0.0035963378633118884 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.04778460859044301, "1": 0.07098913301435167, "2": 0.09568940415891473, "3": 0.11703182226831609, "4": 0.1298710115817581, "5": 0.13076412684027797, "6": 0.11946292718850215, "7": 0.09902522201076205, "8": 0.07447776516448563, "9": 0.050824789309959, "10": 0.031469705338159994, "11": 0.017679822678661517, "12": 0.009012209362334657, "13": 0.004168240591089288, "14": 0.0017492119019839165 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.25, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "TEX 5 - 4 MIN", "winner": "TEX" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "TEX 5 - 4 MIN", "winner": "TEX" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0281, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.522, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "TEX", "model_winner": "TEX", "simulation_winner": "TEX", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "TEX", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "TEX", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": -0.0204, "winner": "TEX", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }

Starting-pitcher component quality

H	{ "mae": 1.8571, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.7857 }
R	{ "mae": 1.75, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 1.0357 }
ER	{ "mae": 1.6429, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.9286 }
BB	{ "mae": 1.3929, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.6786 }
SO	{ "mae": 2.8214, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 2.1786 }
HR	{ "mae": 0.8929, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.1071 }
IP_outs	{ "mae_outs": 4.6071, "mae_innings": 1.5357, "bias_outs": 2.75 }

IP error is measured in outs. No single-outing ERA is used; ER and workload are compared directly.

Date

Game

Side

Pred starter

Actual starter

Match

Pred IP

Actual IP

Δ outs

Pred ER

Actual ER

Δ ER

H P/A

BB P/A

SO P/A

All context

20260927

20260927_ARI@SD

away

Michael Soroka

True

5.1

4.2

-2

3/3

3/2

5/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.31437125748503,
      "WHIP": 1.0868263473053892,
      "IP": 111.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 21,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.367,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.067,
      "last_start_IP": 7.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.046,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9961,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0006,
      "walk_factor": 0.936,
      "homer_factor": 0.9931,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 24.2,
      "bb_percent": 5.9,
      "woba": 0.282,
      "xwoba": 0.311,
      "barrel_percent": 8.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 33.9,
      "whiff_percent": 23.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 72,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 21.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8077,
        "prior_weight": 0.1923
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "647336",
      "report_date": "20260927",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 21,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 25.0,
            "ER": 13.0,
            "R": 14.0,
            "H": 19.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 27.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 103.0,
            "Pitches": 395.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.6,
            "R": 2.8,
            "H": 3.8,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 5.4,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 20.6,
            "Pitches": 79.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.68,
            "WHIP": 1.04,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.52,
            "H_per_IP": 0.76,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.28,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.08,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 50.1,
            "ER": 19.0,
            "R": 20.0,
            "H": 35.0,
            "BB": 13.0,
            "SO": 50.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 199.0,
            "Pitches": 774.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 1.9,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 3.5,
            "BB": 1.3,
            "SO": 5.0,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 19.9,
            "Pitches": 77.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.3974,
            "WHIP": 0.9536,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.37748,
            "H_per_IP": 0.69536,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.25828,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.99338,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09934
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 21,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 111.1,
            "ER": 41.0,
            "R": 42.0,
            "H": 94.0,
            "BB": 27.0,
            "SO": 110.0,
            "HR": 9.0,
            "BF": 454.0,
            "Pitches": 1762.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 1.9524,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 4.4762,
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        "predicted_ER": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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        "predicted_WHIP": {
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    "recent_form_analysis": {
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      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
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    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
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          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            {
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          ],
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          },
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        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "ARI",
        "games": 161,
        "wins": 86,
        "losses": 75,
        "win_pct": 0.5342,
        "runs_scored": 735.0,
        "runs_allowed": 721.0,
        "run_differential": 14.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.087,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5652,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4783,
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          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.1,
          "run_differential": 11.0
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        "available": true,
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      "opponent": {
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        "games": 161,
        "wins": 90,
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        "run_differential_per_game": 0.2236,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4286,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.205,
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        "recent": {
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          "run_differential": 19.0
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      "edges": {
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        "offense_edge": 0.0201,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0105,
        "defense_strength": -0.0006,
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        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9961,
        "run_prevention": 1.0038,
        "strikeout": 0.9976
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "647336",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "647336",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 406.0,
            "k_percent": 24.2,
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            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.1,
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            "avg_best_speed": 76.47,
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            "whiff_percent": 23.1,
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          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.5,
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            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
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            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
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          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.1555,
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            "regression_edge": -0.8286,
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            "pitch_design_score": -0.1158
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "647336",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 75,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 75,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 87.79524232123826,
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              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
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              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
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            },
            "pitch_mix": [
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                "pitches": 75,
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                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
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                "release_extension": 0.0,
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                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.7952,
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            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.046,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
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          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.029,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_id": "647336",
            "espn_rank": null
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
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            "factor": 0.9961,
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          "predicted_H": {
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          "predicted_BB": {
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          "predicted_HR": {
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          "predicted_SO": {
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    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
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      "predicted_H": 3,
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      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 100,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260927_ARI@SD.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260927

20260927_ARI@SD

home

Randy Vásquez

True

5.0

6.0

5/3

1/0

3/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "WHIP": 1.2995049504950495,
      "IP": 134.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 31,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.045,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.533,
      "last_start_IP": 4.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
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      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0627,
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
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            "primary_pitch": {
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              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.1051,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.7504,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.738,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0627,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9251,
          "walk_factor": 0.948,
          "homer_factor": 1.1197,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.031,
          "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "681190",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0627,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0627,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.948,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.1197,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9251,
            "adjusted": 2
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 3,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 88,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260927_ARI@SD.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260927

20260927_ATL@MIA

away

JR Ritchie

True

4.2

5.2

6/7

2/2

4/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.788177339901478,
      "WHIP": 1.463054187192118,
      "IP": 67.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 16,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.933,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.733,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.3801,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0323,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.992,
      "walk_factor": 1.092,
      "homer_factor": 1.0755,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 22.0,
      "bb_percent": 13.7,
      "woba": 0.342,
      "xwoba": 0.338,
      "barrel_percent": 9.6,
      "hard_hit_percent": 39.6,
      "whiff_percent": 23.8
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 487,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 16.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7619,
        "prior_weight": 0.2381
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "702275",
      "report_date": "20260927",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 16,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 18.1,
            "ER": 12.0,
            "R": 12.0,
            "H": 19.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 22.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 84.0,
            "Pitches": 339.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.2,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 3.8,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 4.4,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 16.8,
            "Pitches": 67.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.8909,
            "WHIP": 1.6364,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.65455,
            "H_per_IP": 1.03636,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.6,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.2,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.27273
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 37.0,
            "ER": 23.0,
            "R": 24.0,
            "H": 35.0,
            "BB": 23.0,
            "SO": 40.0,
            "HR": 8.0,
            "BF": 168.0,
            "Pitches": 669.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.2,
            "ER": 2.3,
            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 3.5,
            "BB": 2.3,
            "SO": 4.0,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 16.8,
            "Pitches": 66.9
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.5946,
            "WHIP": 1.5676,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.62162,
            "H_per_IP": 0.94595,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.62162,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.08108,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.21622
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 16,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 67.2,
            "ER": 36.0,
            "R": 39.0,
            "H": 58.0,
            "BB": 41.0,
            "SO": 66.0,
            "HR": 12.0,
            "BF": 300.0,
            "Pitches": 1191.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 2.25,
            "R": 2.4375,
            "H": 3.625,
            "BB": 2.5625,
            "SO": 4.125,
            "HR": 0.75,
            "BF": 18.75,
            "Pitches": 74.4375
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.7882,
            "WHIP": 1.4631,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.53202,
            "H_per_IP": 0.85714,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.60591,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.97537,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.17734
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.377,
        "predicted_H": 3.896,
        "predicted_BB": 2.22,
        "predicted_SO": 4.292,
        "predicted_HR": 0.856,
        "predicted_ERA": 5.3398,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.5266
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4506,
      "form_weight": 0.5494,
      "form_reliability": 0.7619,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 16.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7619,
        "prior_weight": 0.2381
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.2,
          "form": 4.0,
          "final": 4.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.377,
          "final": 2.6577,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 3.896,
          "final": 4.8441,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.22,
          "final": 2.1209,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 4.292,
          "final": 4.1604,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.856,
          "final": 0.4703,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 5.3398,
          "final": 5.3398,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.5266,
          "final": 1.5266,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 37.0,
        "ER": 23,
        "H": 35,
        "BB": 23,
        "SO": 40,
        "HR": 8,
        "ERA": 5.594594594594595,
        "WHIP": 1.5675675675675675,
        "K9": 9.72972972972973,
        "HR9": 1.945945945945946,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": true
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-22T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.1292898368264277,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 6.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 16.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7619,
          "prior_weight": 0.2381
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "702275",
      "player_name": "JR Ritchie",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "ATL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.2,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.6667,
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              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          },
          {
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
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        ],
        "summary": {
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            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "ATL",
        "games": 161,
        "wins": 94,
        "losses": 67,
        "win_pct": 0.5839,
        "runs_scored": 739.0,
        "runs_allowed": 621.0,
        "run_differential": 118.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.7329,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5901,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8571,
        "offense_index": 1.0256,
        "defense_index": 1.1603,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7,
          "run_differential": 6.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1964
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "MIA",
        "games": 161,
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        "losses": 82,
        "win_pct": 0.4907,
        "runs_scored": 710.0,
        "runs_allowed": 709.0,
        "run_differential": 1.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0062,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4099,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4037,
        "offense_index": 0.9854,
        "defense_index": 1.0163,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1,
          "run_differential": -4.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0071
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.2035,
        "offense_edge": 0.0256,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0146,
        "defense_strength": 0.1603,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0163,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0135,
        "run_prevention": 0.9715,
        "strikeout": 1.0073
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "702275",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "702275",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 276.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 13.7,
            "woba": 0.342,
            "xwoba": 0.338,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 31.0,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 9.6,
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            "avg_best_speed": 79.4259,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8915,
            "whiff_percent": 23.8,
            "swing_percent": 42.1
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.5,
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            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
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            "avg_best_speed": 77.6176,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8947,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.5536,
            "command_and_miss": -0.3,
            "regression_edge": 0.1143,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.7714,
            "barrel_edge": -0.5333,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.2429,
            "whiff_edge": -0.2,
            "bb_edge": -1.15,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0434
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "702275",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 62,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 62,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.08942457225857,
              "release_spin_rate": 2330.1009458662215,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 62,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.08942457225857,
                "release_spin_rate": 2330.1009458662215,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.0894,
              "release_spin_rate": 2330.1009,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0434,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.3098,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.3801,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0323,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.992,
          "walk_factor": 1.092,
          "homer_factor": 1.0755,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.004,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "702275",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0323,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0323,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.092,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0755,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.992,
            "adjusted": 5
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.2,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 95,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260927_ATL@MIA.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260927

20260927_ATL@MIA

home

Janson Junk

True

4.2

-2

3/3

0/1

3/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "WHIP": 1.3109243697478992,
      "IP": 119.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 25,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.917,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.133,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
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      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0193,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.912,
      "walk_factor": 0.944,
      "homer_factor": 1.005,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 16.6,
      "bb_percent": 6.3,
      "woba": 0.322,
      "xwoba": 0.317,
      "barrel_percent": 7.0,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.5,
      "whiff_percent": 15.2
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 220,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 25.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8333,
        "prior_weight": 0.1667
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "676083",
      "report_date": "20260927",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 25,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.667,
      "windows": {
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          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 20.2,
            "ER": 11.0,
            "R": 11.0,
            "H": 22.0,
            "BB": 6.0,
            "SO": 16.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 88.0,
            "Pitches": 356.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.0,
            "ER": 2.2,
            "R": 2.2,
            "H": 4.4,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 3.2,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 17.6,
            "Pitches": 71.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.7903,
            "WHIP": 1.3548,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.53226,
            "H_per_IP": 1.06452,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.29032,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.77419,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09677
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 40.1,
            "ER": 17.0,
            "R": 18.0,
            "H": 41.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 23.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 168.0,
            "Pitches": 649.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.0,
            "ER": 1.7,
            "R": 1.8,
            "H": 4.1,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 2.3,
            "HR": 0.3,
            "BF": 16.8,
            "Pitches": 64.9
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.7934,
            "WHIP": 1.2645,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.42149,
            "H_per_IP": 1.01653,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.24793,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.57025,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07438
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 25,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 119.0,
            "ER": 57.0,
            "R": 62.0,
            "H": 124.0,
            "BB": 32.0,
            "SO": 84.0,
            "HR": 14.0,
            "BF": 505.0,
            "Pitches": 1917.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.28,
            "R": 2.48,
            "H": 4.96,
            "BB": 1.28,
            "SO": 3.36,
            "HR": 0.56,
            "BF": 20.2,
            "Pitches": 76.68
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.3109,
            "WHIP": 1.3109,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.47899,
            "H_per_IP": 1.04202,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.26891,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.70588,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11765
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.06,
        "predicted_H": 4.363,
        "predicted_BB": 1.221,
        "predicted_SO": 3.084,
        "predicted_HR": 0.432,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.3902,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3225
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4204,
      "form_weight": 0.5796,
      "form_reliability": 0.8333,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8333,
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      "applied_metrics": {
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          "form": 4.1,
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.06,
          "final": 2.4552,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 4.363,
          "final": 3.79,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.221,
          "final": 0.7077,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 3.084,
          "final": 3.0487,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 0.432,
          "final": 1.0912,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.3902,
          "final": 4.3902,
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3225,
          "final": 1.3225,
          "source": "form_only"
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 40.1,
        "ER": 17,
        "H": 41,
        "BB": 10,
        "SO": 23,
        "HR": 3,
        "ERA": 3.7933884297520657,
        "WHIP": 1.2644628099173554,
        "K9": 5.132231404958677,
        "HR9": 0.6694214876033058,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 1,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-22T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.919076524340388,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 3.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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          "sample_size": 25.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8333,
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    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "676083",
      "player_name": "Janson Junk",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "MIA",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
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            "predicted_SO": 3.0
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
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        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
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            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
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              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
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          {
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          {
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        ],
        "summary": {
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          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "MIA",
        "games": 161,
        "wins": 79,
        "losses": 82,
        "win_pct": 0.4907,
        "runs_scored": 710.0,
        "runs_allowed": 709.0,
        "run_differential": 1.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0062,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4099,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4037,
        "offense_index": 0.9854,
        "defense_index": 1.0163,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
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          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1,
          "run_differential": -4.0
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      "opponent": {
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        "losses": 67,
        "win_pct": 0.5839,
        "runs_scored": 739.0,
        "runs_allowed": 621.0,
        "run_differential": 118.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.7329,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5901,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8571,
        "offense_index": 1.0256,
        "defense_index": 1.1603,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
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          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7,
          "run_differential": 6.0
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        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1964
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      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.2035,
        "offense_edge": -0.0146,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0256,
        "defense_strength": 0.0163,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1603,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9913,
        "run_prevention": 1.0126,
        "strikeout": 0.9918
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "676083",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "676083",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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            "avg_best_speed": 79.2265,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.363,
            "whiff_percent": 15.2,
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          "league_medians": {
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            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6176,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8947,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.0882,
            "command_and_miss": -0.7071,
            "regression_edge": 0.1429,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.1714,
            "barrel_edge": 0.0444,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.0857,
            "whiff_edge": -1.4286,
            "bb_edge": 0.7,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.1048
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "676083",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 52,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 52,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 87.99217715516329,
              "release_spin_rate": 2229.370088419328,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 52,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 87.99217715516329,
                "release_spin_rate": 2229.370088419328,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.9922,
              "release_spin_rate": 2229.3701,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1048,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.7487,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.2274,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0193,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.912,
          "walk_factor": 0.944,
          "homer_factor": 1.005,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.005,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "676083",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0193,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0193,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.944,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.005,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.912,
            "adjusted": 3
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.2,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 3,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 17,
      "Pitches": 68,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260927_ATL@MIA.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260927

20260927_CHC@BOS

away

Shota Imanaga

True

5.2

1.0

-14

2/1

3/0

5/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.738461538461538,
      "WHIP": 1.096153846153846,
      "IP": 173.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 31,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.591,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.6,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.1919,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9837,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0389,
      "walk_factor": 0.924,
      "homer_factor": 1.0296,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 24.4,
      "bb_percent": 5.3,
      "woba": 0.308,
      "xwoba": 0.301,
      "barrel_percent": 9.7,
      "hard_hit_percent": 36.8,
      "whiff_percent": 29.6
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 81,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 31.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8611,
        "prior_weight": 0.1389
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "684007",
      "report_date": "20260927",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 31,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 28.0,
            "ER": 11.0,
            "R": 11.0,
            "H": 24.0,
            "BB": 3.0,
            "SO": 27.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 110.0,
            "Pitches": 470.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.2,
            "R": 2.2,
            "H": 4.8,
            "BB": 0.6,
            "SO": 5.4,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 22.0,
            "Pitches": 94.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.5357,
            "WHIP": 0.9643,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.39286,
            "H_per_IP": 0.85714,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.10714,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.96429,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.14286
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 52.1,
            "ER": 22.0,
            "R": 23.0,
            "H": 49.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 58.0,
            "HR": 12.0,
            "BF": 215.0,
            "Pitches": 914.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.2,
            "R": 2.3,
            "H": 4.9,
            "BB": 0.8,
            "SO": 5.8,
            "HR": 1.2,
            "BF": 21.5,
            "Pitches": 91.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.7834,
            "WHIP": 1.0892,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.42038,
            "H_per_IP": 0.93631,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.15287,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.10828,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.2293
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 31,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 173.1,
            "ER": 72.0,
            "R": 74.0,
            "H": 153.0,
            "BB": 37.0,
            "SO": 171.0,
            "HR": 34.0,
            "BF": 702.0,
            "Pitches": 2798.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.3226,
            "R": 2.3871,
            "H": 4.9355,
            "BB": 1.1935,
            "SO": 5.5161,
            "HR": 1.0968,
            "BF": 22.6452,
            "Pitches": 90.2581
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.7385,
            "WHIP": 1.0962,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.41538,
            "H_per_IP": 0.88269,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.21346,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.98654,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.19615
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.347,
        "predicted_H": 5.026,
        "predicted_BB": 0.986,
        "predicted_SO": 5.609,
        "predicted_HR": 0.996,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.795,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.08
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4087,
      "form_weight": 0.5913,
      "form_reliability": 0.8611,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 31.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8611,
        "prior_weight": 0.1389
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.347,
          "final": 1.7965,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 5.026,
          "final": 3.7893,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 0.986,
          "final": 1.8091,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 5.609,
          "final": 4.1341,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.996,
          "final": 0.5889,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.795,
          "final": 3.795,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.08,
          "final": 1.08,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 52.1,
        "ER": 22,
        "H": 49,
        "BB": 8,
        "SO": 58,
        "HR": 12,
        "ERA": 3.78343949044586,
        "WHIP": 1.089171974522293,
        "K9": 9.97452229299363,
        "HR9": 2.0636942675159236,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 5,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-22T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9135749977835633,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 2.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 31.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8611,
          "prior_weight": 0.1389
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.2,
          "predicted_ER": 1,
          "predicted_H": 2,
          "predicted_BB": 3,
          "predicted_SO": 6,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "684007",
      "player_name": "Shota Imanaga",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CHC",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 2.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 4.0,
              "percent_delta": 2.0,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 1,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 4.0,
              "percent_delta": 2.0,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
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            },
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_R": 1.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.2,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.1667,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.1667,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 1.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 3.0,
            "percent_delta": 1.5,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 2,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 1,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 3.0,
            "percent_delta": 1.5,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "CHC",
        "games": 161,
        "wins": 88,
        "losses": 73,
        "win_pct": 0.5466,
        "runs_scored": 844.0,
        "runs_allowed": 701.0,
        "run_differential": 143.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.8882,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.2422,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.354,
        "offense_index": 1.1713,
        "defense_index": 1.0279,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7,
          "run_differential": 1.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1138
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "BOS",
        "games": 161,
        "wins": 87,
        "losses": 74,
        "win_pct": 0.5404,
        "runs_scored": 687.0,
        "runs_allowed": 605.0,
        "run_differential": 82.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.5093,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.2671,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7578,
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        "defense_index": 1.191,
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          "games": 10,
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          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 2.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.6,
          "run_differential": -4.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0969
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0169,
        "offense_edge": 0.1713,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0466,
        "defense_strength": 0.0279,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.191,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0034,
        "run_prevention": 0.9889,
        "strikeout": 1.0042
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "684007",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "684007",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 682.0,
            "k_percent": 24.4,
            "bb_percent": 5.3,
            "woba": 0.308,
            "xwoba": 0.301,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.1,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 9.7,
            "hard_hit_percent": 36.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.3483,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.819,
            "whiff_percent": 29.6,
            "swing_percent": 51.7
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.5,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6176,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8947,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.073,
            "command_and_miss": 0.5643,
            "regression_edge": 0.2,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.2857,
            "barrel_edge": -0.5556,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.1571,
            "whiff_edge": 0.6286,
            "bb_edge": 0.95,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.1964
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "684007",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 90,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 90,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 86.3572383214721,
              "release_spin_rate": 2029.4914560010316,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 90,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 86.3572383214721,
                "release_spin_rate": 2029.4914560010316,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 86.3572,
              "release_spin_rate": 2029.4915,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1964,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.4027,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.1919,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9837,
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          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "684007",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9837,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9837,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.924,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0296,
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          "predicted_SO": {
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            "factor": 1.0389,
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
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      "predicted_R": 1,
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      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 94,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least three innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -14 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -3."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260927_CHC@BOS.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260927

20260927_CHC@BOS

home

Tanner Houck

True

1.0

3.0

-1

8/4

4/0

3/1

Last 10 before this game (0 available)

No pregame recent-game rows were available.

{
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            "HR_per_IP": null
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        }
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        "predicted_HR": 0.05,
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    },
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      "adaptive_parameters": {
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.0,
        "prior_weight": 1.0
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      "applied_metrics": {
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          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
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        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
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        },
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    },
    "recent_form_analysis": null,
    "recent_form_boost": null,
    "stat_evolution": [
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        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
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        "stats": {
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          "predicted_HR": 2.0
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "656557",
      "player_name": "Tanner Houck",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "BOS",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
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            "predicted_H": 8.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
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          "stats": {
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            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
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              "percent_delta": 9.0,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
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              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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            "better_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_boost": {
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              "percent_delta": 9.0,
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            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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            "metric": "predicted_H",
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          },
          {
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 0.1,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.9,
            "percent_delta": 9.0,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 0,
          "better_metrics": 1,
          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 0.1,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.9,
            "percent_delta": 9.0,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "BOS",
        "games": 161,
        "wins": 87,
        "losses": 74,
        "win_pct": 0.5404,
        "runs_scored": 687.0,
        "runs_allowed": 605.0,
        "run_differential": 82.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.5093,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.2671,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7578,
        "offense_index": 0.9534,
        "defense_index": 1.191,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 2.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.6,
          "run_differential": -4.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0969
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "CHC",
        "games": 161,
        "wins": 88,
        "losses": 73,
        "win_pct": 0.5466,
        "runs_scored": 844.0,
        "runs_allowed": 701.0,
        "run_differential": 143.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.8882,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.2422,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.354,
        "offense_index": 1.1713,
        "defense_index": 1.0279,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7,
          "run_differential": 1.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1138
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0169,
        "offense_edge": -0.0466,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.1713,
        "defense_strength": 0.191,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0279,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9982,
        "run_prevention": 1.0092,
        "strikeout": 0.9858
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 1.0,
      "predicted_H": 8,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 4,
      "predicted_SO": 3,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 15,
      "Pitches": 53,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "NO_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "No prior appearances in the source dataset",
      "detail": "The model had no row-level pitching history before this game; any precise box-score line should carry a strong uncertainty warning."
    },
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by +6 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was -4."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -4."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260927_CHC@BOS.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260927

20260927_CIN@TOR

away

Brandon Williamson

True

4.1

3.0

-4

3/4

1/3

5/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.89261744966443,
      "WHIP": 1.4093959731543624,
      "IP": 49.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 11,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.917,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.8,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.5793,
      "sample_weight": 0.78,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0492,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9648,
      "walk_factor": 1.0546,
      "homer_factor": 1.0822,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 15.3,
      "bb_percent": 12.6,
      "woba": 0.336,
      "xwoba": 0.365,
      "barrel_percent": 9.3,
      "hard_hit_percent": 41.7,
      "whiff_percent": 24.0
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 396,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 11.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.6875,
        "prior_weight": 0.3125
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "682227",
      "report_date": "20260927",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 11,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 21.2,
            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 11.0,
            "H": 17.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 14.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 87.0,
            "Pitches": 313.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 1.6,
            "R": 2.2,
            "H": 3.4,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 2.8,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 17.4,
            "Pitches": 62.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.3231,
            "WHIP": 1.1077,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.36923,
            "H_per_IP": 0.78462,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.32308,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.64615,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.18462
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 45.0,
            "ER": 21.0,
            "R": 24.0,
            "H": 37.0,
            "BB": 25.0,
            "SO": 30.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 193.0,
            "Pitches": 737.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.1,
            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 3.7,
            "BB": 2.5,
            "SO": 3.0,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 19.3,
            "Pitches": 73.7
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.2,
            "WHIP": 1.3778,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.46667,
            "H_per_IP": 0.82222,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.55556,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.66667,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11111
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 11,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 49.2,
            "ER": 27.0,
            "R": 30.0,
            "H": 43.0,
            "BB": 27.0,
            "SO": 33.0,
            "HR": 8.0,
            "BF": 215.0,
            "Pitches": 831.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.4545,
            "R": 2.7273,
            "H": 3.9091,
            "BB": 2.4545,
            "SO": 3.0,
            "HR": 0.7273,
            "BF": 19.5455,
            "Pitches": 75.5455
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.8926,
            "WHIP": 1.4094,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.54362,
            "H_per_IP": 0.86577,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.54362,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.66443,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.16107
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.154,
        "predicted_H": 4.047,
        "predicted_BB": 1.993,
        "predicted_SO": 3.474,
        "predicted_HR": 0.712,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.1533,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.294
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.482,
      "form_weight": 0.518,
      "form_reliability": 0.6875,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 11.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.6875,
        "prior_weight": 0.3125
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.2,
          "final": 4.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.154,
          "final": 1.5977,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 4.047,
          "final": 3.5423,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.993,
          "final": 1.5143,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 3.474,
          "final": 4.2096,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.712,
          "final": 0.3688,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.1533,
          "final": 4.1533,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.294,
          "final": 1.294,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 45.0,
        "ER": 21,
        "H": 37,
        "BB": 25,
        "SO": 30,
        "HR": 5,
        "ERA": 4.200000000000001,
        "WHIP": 1.377777777777778,
        "K9": 6.000000000000001,
        "HR9": 1.0000000000000002,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 2,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-22T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9676532001897913,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 11.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.6875,
          "prior_weight": 0.3125
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.1,
          "predicted_ER": 1,
          "predicted_H": 3,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 5,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "682227",
      "player_name": "Brandon Williamson",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CIN",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.1,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 4.1,
              "delta": -0.9,
              "percent_delta": -0.18,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 4.1,
              "delta": -0.9,
              "percent_delta": -0.18,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.1,
            "predicted_R": 1.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.1,
              "after": 4.1,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 4.1,
            "delta": -0.9,
            "percent_delta": -0.18,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 4.1,
            "delta": -0.9,
            "percent_delta": -0.18,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "CIN",
        "games": 161,
        "wins": 75,
        "losses": 86,
        "win_pct": 0.4658,
        "runs_scored": 665.0,
        "runs_allowed": 821.0,
        "run_differential": -156.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.9689,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1304,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.0994,
        "offense_index": 0.9229,
        "defense_index": 0.8777,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4,
          "run_differential": -4.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1481
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "TOR",
        "games": 161,
        "wins": 78,
        "losses": 83,
        "win_pct": 0.4845,
        "runs_scored": 643.0,
        "runs_allowed": 693.0,
        "run_differential": -50.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3106,
        "avg_runs_scored": 3.9938,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3043,
        "offense_index": 0.8924,
        "defense_index": 1.0398,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.8,
          "run_differential": -18.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1213
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0268,
        "offense_edge": -0.0771,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.1076,
        "defense_strength": -0.1223,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0398,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9996,
        "run_prevention": 0.9964,
        "strikeout": 1.0078
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "682227",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "682227",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 195.0,
            "k_percent": 15.3,
            "bb_percent": 12.6,
            "woba": 0.336,
            "xwoba": 0.365,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 35.8,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 9.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 41.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.4531,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.5238,
            "whiff_percent": 24.0,
            "swing_percent": 44.2
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.5,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6176,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8947,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.8486,
            "command_and_miss": -0.6657,
            "regression_edge": -0.8286,
            "xwoba_edge": -1.5429,
            "barrel_edge": -0.4667,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.5429,
            "whiff_edge": -0.1714,
            "bb_edge": -0.875,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.1449
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "682227",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 61,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 61,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 87.27704792316935,
              "release_spin_rate": 2309.9624919465377,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 61,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 87.27704792316935,
                "release_spin_rate": 2309.9624919465377,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.277,
              "release_spin_rate": 2309.9625,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1449,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.0347,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.5793,
          "sample_weight": 0.78,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0492,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9648,
          "walk_factor": 1.0546,
          "homer_factor": 1.0822,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.029,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "682227",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0384,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0384,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0426,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0641,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9725,
            "adjusted": 3
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.1,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 20,
      "Pitches": 80,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +3."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260927_CIN@TOR.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260927

20260927_CIN@TOR

home

Max Scherzer

True

5.0

7.0

-3

6/6

2/1

4/7

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
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      "IP": 77.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 17,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.569,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.533,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
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      "strikeout_factor": 0.9503,
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      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 18.1,
      "bb_percent": 10.1,
      "woba": 0.33,
      "xwoba": 0.32,
      "barrel_percent": 8.8,
      "hard_hit_percent": 33.8,
      "whiff_percent": 20.4
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 806,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
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        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
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        "data_weight": 0.7727,
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      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "453286",
      "report_date": "20260927",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 17,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
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          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
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            "ER": 14.0,
            "R": 14.0,
            "H": 20.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 25.0,
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            "BF": 112.0,
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          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.8,
            "R": 2.8,
            "H": 4.0,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 5.0,
            "HR": 0.6,
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            "Pitches": 84.4
          },
          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.0482,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.50602,
            "H_per_IP": 0.72289,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.3253,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.90361,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10843
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
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            "ER": 27.0,
            "R": 27.0,
            "H": 41.0,
            "BB": 20.0,
            "SO": 43.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 220.0,
            "Pitches": 847.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.7,
            "R": 2.7,
            "H": 4.1,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 4.3,
            "HR": 0.6,
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            "Pitches": 84.7
          },
          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.1509,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.50943,
            "H_per_IP": 0.77358,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.37736,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.81132,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11321
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 17,
          "totals": {
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            "R": 53.0,
            "H": 72.0,
            "BB": 34.0,
            "SO": 61.0,
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            "BF": 337.0,
            "Pitches": 1347.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 3.1176,
            "R": 3.1176,
            "H": 4.2353,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 3.5882,
            "HR": 0.8824,
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            "Pitches": 79.2353
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.1416,
            "WHIP": 1.3648,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.6824,
            "H_per_IP": 0.92704,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.43777,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.78541,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.19313
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
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        "predicted_ER": 2.823,
        "predicted_H": 4.361,
        "predicted_BB": 1.945,
        "predicted_SO": 4.574,
        "predicted_HR": 0.696,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.8214,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1965
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.446,
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      "form_reliability": 0.7727,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7727,
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.823,
          "final": 3.348,
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 4.361,
          "final": 5.0921,
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        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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          "form": 1.945,
          "final": 1.9695,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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          "form": 4.574,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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          "form": 0.696,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.8214,
          "final": 4.8214,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1965,
          "final": 1.1965,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
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        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 53.0,
        "ER": 27,
        "H": 41,
        "BB": 20,
        "SO": 43,
        "HR": 6,
        "ERA": 4.584905660377358,
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        "K9": 7.301886792452829,
        "HR9": 1.0188679245283017,
        "games_pitched": 10,
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        "dominant_form": false,
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      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-23T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.00528422744346,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 6.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
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          "sample_size": 17.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7727,
          "prior_weight": 0.2273
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "453286",
      "player_name": "Max Scherzer",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "TOR",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
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            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
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          },
          {
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 0,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 0,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "TOR",
        "games": 161,
        "wins": 78,
        "losses": 83,
        "win_pct": 0.4845,
        "runs_scored": 643.0,
        "runs_allowed": 693.0,
        "run_differential": -50.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3106,
        "avg_runs_scored": 3.9938,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3043,
        "offense_index": 0.8924,
        "defense_index": 1.0398,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.8,
          "run_differential": -18.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1213
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "CIN",
        "games": 161,
        "wins": 75,
        "losses": 86,
        "win_pct": 0.4658,
        "runs_scored": 665.0,
        "runs_allowed": 821.0,
        "run_differential": -156.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.9689,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1304,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.0994,
        "offense_index": 0.9229,
        "defense_index": 0.8777,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4,
          "run_differential": -4.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1481
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0268,
        "offense_edge": -0.1076,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0771,
        "defense_strength": 0.0398,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.1223,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0053,
        "run_prevention": 0.9823,
        "strikeout": 1.007
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "453286",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "453286",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 314.0,
            "k_percent": 18.1,
            "bb_percent": 10.1,
            "woba": 0.33,
            "xwoba": 0.32,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.8,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.8,
            "hard_hit_percent": 33.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.4077,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.3143,
            "whiff_percent": 20.4,
            "swing_percent": 49.4
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.5,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6176,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8947,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.1514,
            "command_and_miss": -0.5407,
            "regression_edge": 0.2857,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.2571,
            "barrel_edge": -0.3556,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.5857,
            "whiff_edge": -0.6857,
            "bb_edge": -0.25,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.1364
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "453286",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 84,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 84,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 87.42749076681898,
              "release_spin_rate": 2268.105128057084,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 84,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 87.42749076681898,
                "release_spin_rate": 2268.105128057084,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.4275,
              "release_spin_rate": 2268.1051,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1364,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.9746,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.2077,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0177,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9503,
          "walk_factor": 1.02,
          "homer_factor": 1.0127,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.01,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "453286",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0177,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0177,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.02,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0127,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9503,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 93,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by +6 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260927_CIN@TOR.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260927

20260927_CLE@KC

away

Parker Messick

True

6.1

3.0

-10

-2

4/6

1/1

8/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.5527272727272727,
      "WHIP": 1.0418181818181818,
      "IP": 183.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 31,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.914,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.667,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.5755,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9511,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0263,
      "walk_factor": 0.95,
      "homer_factor": 0.9023,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 26.1,
      "bb_percent": 6.6,
      "woba": 0.272,
      "xwoba": 0.272,
      "barrel_percent": 4.9,
      "hard_hit_percent": 33.8,
      "whiff_percent": 25.7
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 4,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 6.0,
      "season_IP": 183.1,
      "season_ERA": 2.553,
      "season_WHIP": 1.042,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 31.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8611,
        "prior_weight": 0.1389
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "800048",
      "report_date": "20260927",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 31,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 28.1,
            "ER": 9.0,
            "R": 9.0,
            "H": 27.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 35.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 119.0,
            "Pitches": 485.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 1.8,
            "H": 5.4,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 7.0,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 23.8,
            "Pitches": 97.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.8588,
            "WHIP": 1.2,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.31765,
            "H_per_IP": 0.95294,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.24706,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.23529,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10588
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 58.0,
            "ER": 16.0,
            "R": 17.0,
            "H": 49.0,
            "BB": 12.0,
            "SO": 69.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 235.0,
            "Pitches": 967.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 1.6,
            "R": 1.7,
            "H": 4.9,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 6.9,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 23.5,
            "Pitches": 96.7
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.4828,
            "WHIP": 1.0517,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.27586,
            "H_per_IP": 0.84483,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.2069,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.18966,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10345
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 31,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 183.1,
            "ER": 52.0,
            "R": 56.0,
            "H": 143.0,
            "BB": 48.0,
            "SO": 191.0,
            "HR": 17.0,
            "BF": 731.0,
            "Pitches": 2884.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.6774,
            "R": 1.8065,
            "H": 4.6129,
            "BB": 1.5484,
            "SO": 6.1613,
            "HR": 0.5484,
            "BF": 23.5806,
            "Pitches": 93.0323
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.5527,
            "WHIP": 1.0418,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.28364,
            "H_per_IP": 0.78,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.26182,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.04182,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09273
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 1.883,
        "predicted_H": 5.164,
        "predicted_BB": 1.477,
        "predicted_SO": 6.617,
        "predicted_HR": 0.628,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.9365,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1507
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4087,
      "form_weight": 0.5913,
      "form_reliability": 0.8611,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 31.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8611,
        "prior_weight": 0.1389
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 1.883,
          "final": 2.7482,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 5.164,
          "final": 4.6883,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.477,
          "final": 1.2821,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 8.0,
          "form": 6.617,
          "final": 7.1822,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 0.628,
          "final": 1.1887,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.9365,
          "final": 2.9365,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1507,
          "final": 1.1507,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 58.0,
        "ER": 16,
        "H": 49,
        "BB": 12,
        "SO": 69,
        "HR": 6,
        "ERA": 2.482758620689655,
        "WHIP": 1.0517241379310343,
        "K9": 10.706896551724137,
        "HR9": 0.9310344827586206,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 6,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-22T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.7663122040212089,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 8.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 31.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8611,
          "prior_weight": 0.1389
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.1,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 4,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 8,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "800048",
      "player_name": "Parker Messick",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CLE",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.1,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.25,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.5,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.1,
              "delta": 0.1,
              "percent_delta": 0.0167,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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          ],
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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          {
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        ],
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            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
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        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
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        "games": 161,
        "wins": 85,
        "losses": 76,
        "win_pct": 0.528,
        "runs_scored": 676.0,
        "runs_allowed": 664.0,
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        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0745,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1988,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1242,
        "offense_index": 0.9382,
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          "losses": 1,
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          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.5,
          "run_differential": 23.0
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        "available": true,
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      "opponent": {
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        "games": 161,
        "wins": 68,
        "losses": 93,
        "win_pct": 0.4224,
        "runs_scored": 687.0,
        "runs_allowed": 808.0,
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        "run_differential_per_game": -0.7516,
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          "avg_runs_allowed": 7.6,
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      "edges": {
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      "player_factors": {
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "800048",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "800048",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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            "k_percent": 26.1,
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            "woba": 0.272,
            "xwoba": 0.272,
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            "avg_best_speed": 76.152,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.4301,
            "whiff_percent": 25.7,
            "swing_percent": 48.5
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.5,
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            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6176,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8947,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
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          "components": {
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            "command_and_miss": 0.4136,
            "regression_edge": 0.0,
            "xwoba_edge": 1.1143,
            "barrel_edge": 0.5111,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.5857,
            "whiff_edge": 0.0714,
            "bb_edge": 0.625,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0142
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "800048",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 96,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 96,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.117481056101,
              "release_spin_rate": 2107.0953611307837,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 96,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.117481056101,
                "release_spin_rate": 2107.0953611307837,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.1175,
              "release_spin_rate": 2107.0954,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
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              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
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            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0142,
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              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
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              "velocity_edge": 0.1014,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.5755,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
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          "strikeout_factor": 1.0263,
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          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_id": "800048",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
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            "factor": 0.9511,
            "adjusted": 2
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          "predicted_H": {
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            "factor": 0.9511,
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          "predicted_BB": {
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            "factor": 0.95,
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          "predicted_HR": {
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      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
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      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 8,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 24,
      "Pitches": 96,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least three innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -10 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: True; actual quality start: False."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260927_CLE@KC.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260927

20260927_CLE@KC

home

Daniel Lynch IV

True

5.1

3/7

3/0

5/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
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      "role_avg_IP": 3.852,
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    },
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      "sample_weight": 1.0,
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      "strikeout_factor": 0.9514,
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      "homer_factor": 1.0095,
      "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 16.2,
      "bb_percent": 7.8,
      "woba": 0.293,
      "xwoba": 0.327,
      "barrel_percent": 6.8,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.4,
      "whiff_percent": 22.5
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 269,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.0,
      "season_IP": 80.2,
      "season_ERA": 4.128,
      "season_WHIP": 1.14,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
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      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
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      "weights": {
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
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      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "663738",
      "report_date": "20260927",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 55,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
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          "totals": {
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            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 11.0,
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            "BF": 99.0,
            "Pitches": 371.0
          },
          "per_game": {
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            "SO": 2.2,
            "HR": 1.0,
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            "Pitches": 74.2
          },
          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.4328,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.80597,
            "H_per_IP": 1.02985,
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            "SO_per_IP": 0.49254,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.22388
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        },
        "last_10": {
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          "totals": {
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            "R": 28.0,
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            "BB": 14.0,
            "SO": 20.0,
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            "Pitches": 560.0
          },
          "per_game": {
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            "H": 3.6,
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            "Pitches": 56.0
          },
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            "WHIP": 1.4019,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.75701,
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            "BB_per_IP": 0.39252,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.56075,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.19626
          }
        },
        "season": {
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          "totals": {
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            "SO": 54.0,
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          },
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            "SO_per_IP": 0.66942,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11157
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
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        "predicted_H": 3.85,
        "predicted_BB": 1.5,
        "predicted_SO": 2.515,
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        "predicted_ERA": 6.0435,
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    "model_form_blend_trace": {
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      "adaptive_parameters": {
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
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        },
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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          "final": 3.6279,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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          "form": 0.714,
          "final": 0.8421,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
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          "form": 6.0435,
          "final": 6.0435,
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
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          "form": 1.3634,
          "final": 1.3634,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
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        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
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        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
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        "ER": 27,
        "H": 36,
        "BB": 14,
        "SO": 20,
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        "WHIP": 1.4018691588785048,
        "K9": 5.046728971962617,
        "HR9": 1.766355140186916,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-22T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.2622274473341317,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 16.587,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7684,
          "prior_weight": 0.2316
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "663738",
      "player_name": "Daniel Lynch IV",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "KC",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.1,
            "predicted_R": 1.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0438,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0438,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0437,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0437,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "KC",
        "games": 161,
        "wins": 68,
        "losses": 93,
        "win_pct": 0.4224,
        "runs_scored": 687.0,
        "runs_allowed": 808.0,
        "run_differential": -121.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.7516,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.2671,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.0186,
        "offense_index": 0.9534,
        "defense_index": 0.8918,
        "current_streak": "L3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 2,
          "losses": 8,
          "win_pct": 0.2,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 7.6,
          "run_differential": -25.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.2633
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "CLE",
        "games": 161,
        "wins": 85,
        "losses": 76,
        "win_pct": 0.528,
        "runs_scored": 676.0,
        "runs_allowed": 664.0,
        "run_differential": 12.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0745,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1988,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1242,
        "offense_index": 0.9382,
        "defense_index": 1.0852,
        "current_streak": "W3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 9,
          "losses": 1,
          "win_pct": 0.9,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.5,
          "run_differential": 23.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.173
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.4363,
        "offense_edge": -0.0466,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0618,
        "defense_strength": -0.1082,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0852,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.7
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9818,
        "run_prevention": 1.0227,
        "strikeout": 0.9919
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "663738",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "663738",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 304.0,
            "k_percent": 16.2,
            "bb_percent": 7.8,
            "woba": 0.293,
            "xwoba": 0.327,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 31.2,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.8,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.4,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.9256,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.006,
            "whiff_percent": 22.5,
            "swing_percent": 46.6
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.5,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6176,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8947,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.0783,
            "command_and_miss": -0.4429,
            "regression_edge": -0.9714,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.4571,
            "barrel_edge": 0.0889,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.0714,
            "whiff_edge": -0.3857,
            "bb_edge": 0.325,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0068
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "663738",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 70,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 70,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.74268690185157,
              "release_spin_rate": 2086.8602213887807,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 70,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.74268690185157,
                "release_spin_rate": 2086.8602213887807,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.7427,
              "release_spin_rate": 2086.8602,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0068,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.0485,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.2567,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0218,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9514,
          "walk_factor": 0.974,
          "homer_factor": 1.0095,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.034,
          "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "663738",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0218,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0218,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.974,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0095,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9514,
            "adjusted": 2
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 88,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +4."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -3."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260927_CLE@KC.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260927

20260927_COL@CHW

away

Kyle Freeland

True

4.1

4.0

-1

6/7

1/0

7/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 6.578680203045685,
      "WHIP": 1.515228426395939,
      "IP": 131.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 25,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.253,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.6,
      "last_start_IP": 3.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.5789,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0492,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9594,
      "walk_factor": 0.916,
      "homer_factor": 1.141,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 17.9,
      "bb_percent": 4.9,
      "woba": 0.382,
      "xwoba": 0.354,
      "barrel_percent": 11.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 44.0,
      "whiff_percent": 22.2
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 668,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 25.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8333,
        "prior_weight": 0.1667
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "607536",
      "report_date": "20260927",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 25,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 23.0,
            "ER": 14.0,
            "R": 16.0,
            "H": 32.0,
            "BB": 6.0,
            "SO": 13.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 107.0,
            "Pitches": 381.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.8,
            "R": 3.2,
            "H": 6.4,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 2.6,
            "HR": 1.2,
            "BF": 21.4,
            "Pitches": 76.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.4783,
            "WHIP": 1.6522,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.6087,
            "H_per_IP": 1.3913,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.26087,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.56522,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.26087
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 54.1,
            "ER": 34.0,
            "R": 36.0,
            "H": 65.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 38.0,
            "HR": 11.0,
            "BF": 238.0,
            "Pitches": 838.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 3.4,
            "R": 3.6,
            "H": 6.5,
            "BB": 1.1,
            "SO": 3.8,
            "HR": 1.1,
            "BF": 23.8,
            "Pitches": 83.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.6319,
            "WHIP": 1.3988,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.62577,
            "H_per_IP": 1.19632,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.20245,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.69939,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.20245
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 25,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 131.1,
            "ER": 96.0,
            "R": 100.0,
            "H": 170.0,
            "BB": 29.0,
            "SO": 106.0,
            "HR": 27.0,
            "BF": 593.0,
            "Pitches": 2125.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 3.84,
            "R": 4.0,
            "H": 6.8,
            "BB": 1.16,
            "SO": 4.24,
            "HR": 1.08,
            "BF": 23.72,
            "Pitches": 85.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.5787,
            "WHIP": 1.5152,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.73096,
            "H_per_IP": 1.29442,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.22081,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.80711,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.20558
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 3.107,
        "predicted_H": 6.286,
        "predicted_BB": 1.292,
        "predicted_SO": 3.552,
        "predicted_HR": 1.086,
        "predicted_ERA": 5.5624,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.5073
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4204,
      "form_weight": 0.5796,
      "form_reliability": 0.8333,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 25.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8333,
        "prior_weight": 0.1667
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 3.107,
          "final": 4.3233,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 6.286,
          "final": 5.7453,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
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        "predicted_HR": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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        "predicted_WHIP": {
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      "pitching": {
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-22T00:00:00"
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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      },
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      },
      {
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    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
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        {
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      "total_change": {
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          "has_material_change": true,
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
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        "games": 161,
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        "win_pct": 0.3602,
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        "available": true,
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      "opponent": {
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        "games": 161,
        "wins": 83,
        "losses": 78,
        "win_pct": 0.5155,
        "runs_scored": 772.0,
        "runs_allowed": 718.0,
        "run_differential": 54.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.3354,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.795,
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        "recent": {
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          "avg_runs_scored": 6.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7,
          "run_differential": 17.0
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        "available": true,
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      "edges": {
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        "offense_edge": 0.0409,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0714,
        "defense_strength": -0.2335,
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        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.4
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      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9718,
        "run_prevention": 1.0577,
        "strikeout": 0.9805
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "607536",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "607536",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 531.0,
            "k_percent": 17.9,
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            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.7,
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            "avg_best_speed": 79.9509,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 95.3359,
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          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.5,
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            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
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          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -1.0601,
            "command_and_miss": -0.2036,
            "regression_edge": 0.8,
            "xwoba_edge": -1.2286,
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "607536",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 94,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 94,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 87.10896327807998,
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              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
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                "pitches": 94,
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                "release_speed": 87.10896327807998,
                "release_spin_rate": 2265.301600180975,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.109,
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              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
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              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
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            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1543,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.102,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.5789,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0492,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9594,
          "walk_factor": 0.916,
          "homer_factor": 1.141,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.028,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "607536",
            "espn_rank": null
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0492,
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          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 1.0492,
            "adjusted": 7
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          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.916,
            "adjusted": 1
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          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.141,
            "adjusted": 1
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9594,
            "adjusted": 3
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    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.1,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 6,
      "predicted_ER": 6,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 89,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
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  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260927_COL@CHW.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260927

20260927_COL@CHW

home

Anthony Kay

True

4.2

5.0

-2

5/5

1/2

4/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
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      "games_started": null,
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      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
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      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
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          "per_game": {
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        "predicted_ER": {
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        },
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          "form": 5.263,
          "final": 5.1559,
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        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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        "predicted_SO": {
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        "predicted_HR": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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          "final": 5.7888,
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
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    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
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        "2B": 0,
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        "AVG": 0,
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        "hot_streak": false,
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        "trend": "stable"
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      "pitching": {
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      "fielding": {
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        "games_fielded": 10,
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-22T00:00:00"
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        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
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          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
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    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "role": "pitcher",
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      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CHW",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
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          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
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          "changed_metrics": [],
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          "weights": {},
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        {
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          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
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            {
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            {
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
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        "profile": {
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          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
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            "pitcher_id": "641743",
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            "primary_pitch": {
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            "summary": {
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
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            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0524,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9646,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.2,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 20,
      "Pitches": 85,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260927_COL@CHW.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260927

20260927_HOU@OAK

away

Peter Lambert

True

5.1

2.0

-10

-4

7/2

3/0

6/1

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.8655097613882865,
      "WHIP": 1.2559652928416487,
      "IP": 153.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 28,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.488,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.133,
      "last_start_IP": 2.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.1721,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9854,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0091,
      "walk_factor": 0.998,
      "homer_factor": 0.9704,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 23.3,
      "bb_percent": 9.0,
      "woba": 0.302,
      "xwoba": 0.298,
      "barrel_percent": 6.9,
      "hard_hit_percent": 35.6,
      "whiff_percent": 25.5
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 40,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 28.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8485,
        "prior_weight": 0.1515
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "663567",
      "report_date": "20260927",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 28,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 25.2,
            "ER": 14.0,
            "R": 14.0,
            "H": 28.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 28.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 114.0,
            "Pitches": 436.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.8,
            "R": 2.8,
            "H": 5.6,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 5.6,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 22.8,
            "Pitches": 87.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.9091,
            "WHIP": 1.4026,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.54545,
            "H_per_IP": 1.09091,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.31169,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.09091,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15584
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 50.2,
            "ER": 31.0,
            "R": 33.0,
            "H": 55.0,
            "BB": 20.0,
            "SO": 53.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 227.0,
            "Pitches": 893.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 3.1,
            "R": 3.3,
            "H": 5.5,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 5.3,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 22.7,
            "Pitches": 89.3
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.5066,
            "WHIP": 1.4803,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.61184,
            "H_per_IP": 1.08553,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.39474,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.04605,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11842
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 28,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 153.2,
            "ER": 66.0,
            "R": 68.0,
            "H": 134.0,
            "BB": 59.0,
            "SO": 153.0,
            "HR": 17.0,
            "BF": 656.0,
            "Pitches": 2602.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.3571,
            "R": 2.4286,
            "H": 4.7857,
            "BB": 2.1071,
            "SO": 5.4643,
            "HR": 0.6071,
            "BF": 23.4286,
            "Pitches": 92.9286
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.8655,
            "WHIP": 1.256,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.4295,
            "H_per_IP": 0.87202,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.38395,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.99566,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11063
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.76,
        "predicted_H": 5.29,
        "predicted_BB": 1.833,
        "predicted_SO": 5.301,
        "predicted_HR": 0.695,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.8647,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3948
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.414,
      "form_weight": 0.586,
      "form_reliability": 0.8485,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 28.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8485,
        "prior_weight": 0.1515
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.1,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.76,
          "final": 3.2734,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 5.29,
          "final": 5.998,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 1.833,
          "final": 2.3161,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.301,
          "final": 5.1764,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.695,
          "final": 0.4073,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.8647,
          "final": 4.8647,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3948,
          "final": 1.3948,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 50.2,
        "ER": 31,
        "H": 55,
        "BB": 20,
        "SO": 53,
        "HR": 6,
        "ERA": 5.506578947368421,
        "WHIP": 1.480263157894737,
        "K9": 9.414473684210527,
        "HR9": 1.0657894736842106,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 2,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-24T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.1172054662716624,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 7.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 28.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8485,
          "prior_weight": 0.1515
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "663567",
      "player_name": "Peter Lambert",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "HOU",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.1,
            "predicted_R": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0438,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.2,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_boost": {
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              "percent_delta": 0.2,
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            },
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0438,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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          },
          {
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            "percent_delta": -0.0437,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
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            "delta": 1.0,
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        ],
        "summary": {
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          "biggest_boost": {
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          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
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            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "HOU",
        "games": 161,
        "wins": 80,
        "losses": 81,
        "win_pct": 0.4969,
        "runs_scored": 725.0,
        "runs_allowed": 766.0,
        "run_differential": -41.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2547,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5031,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7578,
        "offense_index": 1.0062,
        "defense_index": 0.9407,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2,
          "run_differential": 10.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0689
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "OAK",
        "games": 161,
        "wins": 64,
        "losses": 97,
        "win_pct": 0.3975,
        "runs_scored": 699.0,
        "runs_allowed": 928.0,
        "run_differential": -229.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.4224,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3416,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.764,
        "offense_index": 0.9701,
        "defense_index": 0.7765,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.7,
          "run_differential": -25.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.3319
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.263,
        "offense_edge": 0.0062,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0299,
        "defense_strength": -0.0593,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.2235,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0099,
        "run_prevention": 0.988,
        "strikeout": 1.0103
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "663567",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "663567",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 613.0,
            "k_percent": 23.3,
            "bb_percent": 9.0,
            "woba": 0.302,
            "xwoba": 0.298,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.0,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.9,
            "hard_hit_percent": 35.6,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.4733,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.4972,
            "whiff_percent": 25.5,
            "swing_percent": 48.7
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.5,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6176,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8947,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.2426,
            "command_and_miss": 0.1036,
            "regression_edge": 0.1143,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.3714,
            "barrel_edge": 0.0667,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.3286,
            "whiff_edge": 0.0429,
            "bb_edge": 0.025,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0267
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "663567",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 97,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 97,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.38687519162656,
              "release_spin_rate": 2204.8030078841884,
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              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
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              "xwoba": 0.0,
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            },
            "pitch_mix": [
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                "pitches": 97,
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                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.3869,
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              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0267,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.1908,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.1721,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9854,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0091,
          "walk_factor": 0.998,
          "homer_factor": 0.9704,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.004,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "663567",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9854,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9854,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.998,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9704,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0091,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 7,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 27,
      "Pitches": 107,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -4; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least three innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -10 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 5",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was -5."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "MISSED_SHUTDOWN",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Model missed a shutdown outing",
      "detail": "The pitcher allowed zero earned runs after a projection of 4 ER."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260927_HOU@OAK.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260927

20260927_HOU@OAK

home

Seth Johnson

True

4.0

1.2

-7

8/1

1/2

5/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 5.0625,
      "WHIP": 1.5625,
      "IP": 32.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 26,
      "role_avg_IP": 1.231,
      "recent_avg_IP": 1.8,
      "last_start_IP": 0.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.1625,
      "sample_weight": 0.516,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0138,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0153,
      "walk_factor": 1.0299,
      "homer_factor": 1.0726,
      "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 25.3,
      "bb_percent": 12.0,
      "woba": 0.373,
      "xwoba": 0.331,
      "barrel_percent": 12.0,
      "hard_hit_percent": 44.6,
      "whiff_percent": 27.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 716,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 6.58,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.5682,
        "prior_weight": 0.4318
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "686751",
      "report_date": "20260927",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 26,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 9.0,
            "ER": 5.0,
            "R": 5.0,
            "H": 11.0,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 8.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 38.0,
            "Pitches": 121.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.2,
            "ER": 1.0,
            "R": 1.0,
            "H": 2.2,
            "BB": 0.2,
            "SO": 1.6,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 7.6,
            "Pitches": 24.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.0,
            "WHIP": 1.3333,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.55556,
            "H_per_IP": 1.22222,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.11111,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.88889,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.22222
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 15.2,
            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 8.0,
            "H": 18.0,
            "BB": 3.0,
            "SO": 18.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 66.0,
            "Pitches": 235.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.2,
            "ER": 0.8,
            "R": 0.8,
            "H": 1.8,
            "BB": 0.3,
            "SO": 1.8,
            "HR": 0.3,
            "BF": 6.6,
            "Pitches": 23.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.5957,
            "WHIP": 1.3404,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.51064,
            "H_per_IP": 1.14894,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.19149,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.14894,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.19149
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 26,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 32.0,
            "ER": 18.0,
            "R": 20.0,
            "H": 33.0,
            "BB": 17.0,
            "SO": 38.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 146.0,
            "Pitches": 558.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.1,
            "ER": 0.6923,
            "R": 0.7692,
            "H": 1.2692,
            "BB": 0.6538,
            "SO": 1.4615,
            "HR": 0.1538,
            "BF": 5.6154,
            "Pitches": 21.4615
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.0625,
            "WHIP": 1.5625,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.5625,
            "H_per_IP": 1.03125,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.53125,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.1875,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.125
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 2.2,
        "predicted_ER": 1.394,
        "predicted_H": 2.855,
        "predicted_BB": 0.766,
        "predicted_SO": 2.623,
        "predicted_HR": 0.457,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.76,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3736
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.5324,
      "form_weight": 0.4676,
      "form_reliability": 0.5682,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 6.58,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.5682,
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      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.2,
          "final": 3.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 8.0,
          "form": 1.394,
          "final": 4.9113,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 2.855,
          "final": 5.0619,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.766,
          "final": 0.8906,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.623,
          "final": 3.3562,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 0.457,
          "final": 1.811,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.76,
          "final": 4.76,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3736,
          "final": 1.3736,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 13.2,
        "ER": 7,
        "H": 15,
        "BB": 3,
        "SO": 14,
        "HR": 2,
        "ERA": 4.609756097560976,
        "WHIP": 1.3170731707317074,
        "K9": 9.219512195121952,
        "HR9": 1.3170731707317074,
        "games_pitched": 9,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-25T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0055861390205278,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.0,
          "predicted_ER": 8.0,
          "predicted_H": 7.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 3.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 6.58,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.5682,
          "prior_weight": 0.4318
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "686751",
      "player_name": "Seth Johnson",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "OAK",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 8.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 3.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 8.0,
            "predicted_H": 8.0,
            "predicted_HR": 3.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.0,
            "predicted_R": 8.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.1429,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.25,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
            "boosted_metrics": 2,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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              "percent_delta": 0.1429,
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              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 8.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 3.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.25,
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            "projection_effect": "better",
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          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 2,
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          "biggest_boost": {
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            "percent_delta": 0.1429,
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            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "boosted"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "OAK",
        "games": 161,
        "wins": 64,
        "losses": 97,
        "win_pct": 0.3975,
        "runs_scored": 699.0,
        "runs_allowed": 928.0,
        "run_differential": -229.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.4224,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3416,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.764,
        "offense_index": 0.9701,
        "defense_index": 0.7765,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.7,
          "run_differential": -25.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.3319
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "HOU",
        "games": 161,
        "wins": 80,
        "losses": 81,
        "win_pct": 0.4969,
        "runs_scored": 725.0,
        "runs_allowed": 766.0,
        "run_differential": -41.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2547,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5031,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7578,
        "offense_index": 1.0062,
        "defense_index": 0.9407,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2,
          "run_differential": 10.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0689
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.263,
        "offense_edge": -0.0299,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0062,
        "defense_strength": -0.2235,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0593,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9825,
        "run_prevention": 1.0365,
        "strikeout": 0.9916
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "686751",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "686751",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 129.0,
            "k_percent": 25.3,
            "bb_percent": 12.0,
            "woba": 0.373,
            "xwoba": 0.331,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 41.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 12.0,
            "hard_hit_percent": 44.6,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.2113,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.2448,
            "whiff_percent": 27.1,
            "swing_percent": 46.0
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.5,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6176,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8947,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.8776,
            "command_and_miss": 0.1621,
            "regression_edge": 1.2,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.5714,
            "barrel_edge": -1.0667,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.9571,
            "whiff_edge": 0.2714,
            "bb_edge": -0.725,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.1807
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "686751",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 22,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 22,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 93.09071620904594,
              "release_spin_rate": 2440.9411506876427,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 22,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 93.09071620904594,
                "release_spin_rate": 2440.9411506876427,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 93.0907,
              "release_spin_rate": 2440.9412,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.1807,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 1.2907,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.1625,
          "sample_weight": 0.516,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0138,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0153,
          "walk_factor": 1.0299,
          "homer_factor": 1.0726,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.042,
          "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "686751",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0071,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0071,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0154,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0375,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0079,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.0,
      "predicted_H": 8,
      "predicted_R": 8,
      "predicted_ER": 8,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 3,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 90,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 7",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -7; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -7 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 7",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was -7."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "MISSED_SHUTDOWN",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Model missed a shutdown outing",
      "detail": "The pitcher allowed zero earned runs after a projection of 7 ER."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260927_HOU@OAK.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260927

20260927_LAA@SEA

away

Yusei Kikuchi

True

5.0

-1

6/6

1/1

8/7

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.882978723404255,
      "WHIP": 1.547872340425532,
      "IP": 62.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 13,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.821,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.333,
      "last_start_IP": 5.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.4306,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0366,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9886,
      "walk_factor": 1.024,
      "homer_factor": 1.1045,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 21.3,
      "bb_percent": 10.3,
      "woba": 0.349,
      "xwoba": 0.343,
      "barrel_percent": 8.9,
      "hard_hit_percent": 46.1,
      "whiff_percent": 23.9
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 284,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 13.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7222,
        "prior_weight": 0.2778
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "579328",
      "report_date": "20260927",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 13,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 26.2,
            "ER": 9.0,
            "R": 10.0,
            "H": 26.0,
            "BB": 14.0,
            "SO": 23.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 117.0,
            "Pitches": 456.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 5.2,
            "BB": 2.8,
            "SO": 4.6,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 23.4,
            "Pitches": 91.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.0375,
            "WHIP": 1.5,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.3375,
            "H_per_IP": 0.975,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.525,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.8625,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.075
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 48.0,
            "ER": 23.0,
            "R": 24.0,
            "H": 48.0,
            "BB": 23.0,
            "SO": 44.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 212.0,
            "Pitches": 838.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.3,
            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 4.8,
            "BB": 2.3,
            "SO": 4.4,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 21.2,
            "Pitches": 83.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.3125,
            "WHIP": 1.4792,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.47917,
            "H_per_IP": 1.0,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.47917,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.91667,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.125
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 13,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 62.2,
            "ER": 34.0,
            "R": 35.0,
            "H": 68.0,
            "BB": 29.0,
            "SO": 60.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 282.0,
            "Pitches": 1112.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.6154,
            "R": 2.6923,
            "H": 5.2308,
            "BB": 2.2308,
            "SO": 4.6154,
            "HR": 0.5385,
            "BF": 21.6923,
            "Pitches": 85.5385
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.883,
            "WHIP": 1.5479,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.54255,
            "H_per_IP": 1.08511,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.46277,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.95745,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1117
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.247,
        "predicted_H": 4.974,
        "predicted_BB": 2.309,
        "predicted_SO": 4.53,
        "predicted_HR": 0.565,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.0643,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.4636
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4674,
      "form_weight": 0.5326,
      "form_reliability": 0.7222,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 13.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7222,
        "prior_weight": 0.2778
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.247,
          "final": 3.0663,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 4.974,
          "final": 5.4535,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.309,
          "final": 1.6972,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 8.0,
          "form": 4.53,
          "final": 6.1518,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 0.565,
          "final": 1.2357,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.0643,
          "final": 4.0643,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.4636,
          "final": 1.4636,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 48.0,
        "ER": 23,
        "H": 48,
        "BB": 23,
        "SO": 44,
        "HR": 6,
        "ERA": 4.3125,
        "WHIP": 1.4791666666666667,
        "K9": 8.25,
        "HR9": 1.125,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-22T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9828441724120134,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 6.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 8.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 13.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7222,
          "prior_weight": 0.2778
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "579328",
      "player_name": "Yusei Kikuchi",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "LAA",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 8.0,
            "after": 8.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 0,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 0,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "LAA",
        "games": 161,
        "wins": 62,
        "losses": 99,
        "win_pct": 0.3851,
        "runs_scored": 652.0,
        "runs_allowed": 745.0,
        "run_differential": -93.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.5776,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0497,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6273,
        "offense_index": 0.9049,
        "defense_index": 0.9672,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.0,
          "run_differential": -20.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.2036
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "SEA",
        "games": 161,
        "wins": 75,
        "losses": 86,
        "win_pct": 0.4658,
        "runs_scored": 657.0,
        "runs_allowed": 719.0,
        "run_differential": -62.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3851,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0807,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4658,
        "offense_index": 0.9118,
        "defense_index": 1.0022,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3,
          "run_differential": -2.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0764
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.1272,
        "offense_edge": -0.0951,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0882,
        "defense_strength": -0.0328,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0022,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9975,
        "run_prevention": 0.9955,
        "strikeout": 1.0032
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "579328",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "579328",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 259.0,
            "k_percent": 21.3,
            "bb_percent": 10.3,
            "woba": 0.349,
            "xwoba": 0.343,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.5,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.9,
            "hard_hit_percent": 46.1,
            "avg_best_speed": 80.0911,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 95.6181,
            "whiff_percent": 23.9,
            "swing_percent": 48.5
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.5,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6176,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8947,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.7215,
            "command_and_miss": -0.17,
            "regression_edge": 0.1714,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.9143,
            "barrel_edge": -0.3778,
            "hard_hit_edge": -1.1714,
            "whiff_edge": -0.1857,
            "bb_edge": -0.3,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0058
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "579328",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 92,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 92,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.96673905289315,
              "release_spin_rate": 2207.8213288952597,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 92,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.96673905289315,
                "release_spin_rate": 2207.8213288952597,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.9667,
              "release_spin_rate": 2207.8213,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0058,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.0411,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.4306,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0366,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9886,
          "walk_factor": 1.024,
          "homer_factor": 1.1045,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.006,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "579328",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0366,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0366,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.024,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.1045,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9886,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 8,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 93,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was -2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260927_LAA@SEA.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260927

20260927_LAA@SEA

home

Logan Gilbert

True

5.2

4.0

-5

4/0

0/1

10/8

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.8076923076923075,
      "WHIP": 1.1043956043956045,
      "IP": 182.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 31,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.871,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.333,
      "last_start_IP": 4.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.2007,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9829,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0566,
      "walk_factor": 0.948,
      "homer_factor": 1.0584,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 26.7,
      "bb_percent": 6.5,
      "woba": 0.303,
      "xwoba": 0.297,
      "barrel_percent": 10.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 41.2,
      "whiff_percent": 30.4
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 34,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 31.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8611,
        "prior_weight": 0.1389
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "669302",
      "report_date": "20260927",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 31,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 26.2,
            "ER": 19.0,
            "R": 19.0,
            "H": 33.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 35.0,
            "HR": 8.0,
            "BF": 121.0,
            "Pitches": 463.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 3.8,
            "R": 3.8,
            "H": 6.6,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 7.0,
            "HR": 1.6,
            "BF": 24.2,
            "Pitches": 92.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.4125,
            "WHIP": 1.575,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.7125,
            "H_per_IP": 1.2375,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.3375,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.3125,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.3
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 56.1,
            "ER": 29.0,
            "R": 29.0,
            "H": 55.0,
            "BB": 21.0,
            "SO": 64.0,
            "HR": 14.0,
            "BF": 241.0,
            "Pitches": 951.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.9,
            "R": 2.9,
            "H": 5.5,
            "BB": 2.1,
            "SO": 6.4,
            "HR": 1.4,
            "BF": 24.1,
            "Pitches": 95.1
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.6331,
            "WHIP": 1.3491,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.51479,
            "H_per_IP": 0.97633,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.37278,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.13609,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.24852
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 31,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 182.0,
            "ER": 77.0,
            "R": 77.0,
            "H": 153.0,
            "BB": 48.0,
            "SO": 197.0,
            "HR": 29.0,
            "BF": 737.0,
            "Pitches": 2922.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 2.4839,
            "R": 2.4839,
            "H": 4.9355,
            "BB": 1.5484,
            "SO": 6.3548,
            "HR": 0.9355,
            "BF": 23.7742,
            "Pitches": 94.2581
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.8077,
            "WHIP": 1.1044,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.42308,
            "H_per_IP": 0.84066,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.26374,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.08242,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15934
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 3.219,
        "predicted_H": 5.904,
        "predicted_BB": 1.909,
        "predicted_SO": 6.532,
        "predicted_HR": 1.339,
        "predicted_ERA": 5.1778,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3964
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4087,
      "form_weight": 0.5913,
      "form_reliability": 0.8611,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 31.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8611,
        "prior_weight": 0.1389
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 3.219,
          "final": 1.9034,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 5.904,
          "final": 5.1259,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.909,
          "final": 1.1288,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 10.0,
          "form": 6.532,
          "final": 7.9493,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.339,
          "final": 0.7918,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 5.1778,
          "final": 5.1778,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3964,
          "final": 1.3964,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 56.1,
        "ER": 29,
        "H": 55,
        "BB": 21,
        "SO": 64,
        "HR": 14,
        "ERA": 4.633136094674556,
        "WHIP": 1.349112426035503,
        "K9": 10.224852071005916,
        "HR9": 2.2366863905325443,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 5,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-22T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0156643770471219,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 0.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 10.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 31.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8611,
          "prior_weight": 0.1389
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.2,
          "predicted_ER": 0,
          "predicted_H": 4,
          "predicted_BB": 0,
          "predicted_SO": 10,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "669302",
      "player_name": "Logan Gilbert",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "SEA",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 10.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_SO": 10.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 10.0,
              "after": 10.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
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            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
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            "predicted_SO": 10.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.2,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 10.0,
              "after": 10.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 0.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 0.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
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            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 10.0,
            "after": 10.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "SEA",
        "games": 161,
        "wins": 75,
        "losses": 86,
        "win_pct": 0.4658,
        "runs_scored": 657.0,
        "runs_allowed": 719.0,
        "run_differential": -62.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3851,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0807,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4658,
        "offense_index": 0.9118,
        "defense_index": 1.0022,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3,
          "run_differential": -2.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0764
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "LAA",
        "games": 161,
        "wins": 62,
        "losses": 99,
        "win_pct": 0.3851,
        "runs_scored": 652.0,
        "runs_allowed": 745.0,
        "run_differential": -93.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.5776,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0497,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6273,
        "offense_index": 0.9049,
        "defense_index": 0.9672,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.0,
          "run_differential": -20.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.2036
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.1272,
        "offense_edge": -0.0882,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0951,
        "defense_strength": 0.0022,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0328,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.009,
        "run_prevention": 0.9782,
        "strikeout": 1.0114
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "669302",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "669302",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 680.0,
            "k_percent": 26.7,
            "bb_percent": 6.5,
            "woba": 0.303,
            "xwoba": 0.297,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 36.5,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 10.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 41.2,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.9253,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.3788,
            "whiff_percent": 30.4,
            "swing_percent": 50.4
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.5,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6176,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8947,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.0079,
            "command_and_miss": 0.6921,
            "regression_edge": 0.1714,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.4,
            "barrel_edge": -0.6444,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.4714,
            "whiff_edge": 0.7429,
            "bb_edge": 0.65,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0099
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "669302",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 97,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 97,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.68670804198848,
              "release_spin_rate": 1934.7185998494679,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 97,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.68670804198848,
                "release_spin_rate": 1934.7185998494679,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.6867,
              "release_spin_rate": 1934.7186,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0099,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.0709,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.2007,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9829,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0566,
          "walk_factor": 0.948,
          "homer_factor": 1.0584,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.006,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "669302",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9829,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 0.9829,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.948,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0584,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 1.0566,
            "adjusted": 7
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 0,
      "predicted_ER": 0,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 10,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 95,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was -4."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260927_LAA@SEA.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260927

20260927_LAD@SF

away

Jack Dreyer

True

5.0

2.0

-9

3/2

2/0

7/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.1595744680851063,
      "WHIP": 1.1010638297872342,
      "IP": 62.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 66,
      "role_avg_IP": 1.0,
      "recent_avg_IP": 1.0,
      "last_start_IP": 1.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.3395,
      "sample_weight": 0.932,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9711,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0485,
      "walk_factor": 1.0,
      "homer_factor": 1.0023,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 28.0,
      "bb_percent": 9.1,
      "woba": 0.27,
      "xwoba": 0.29,
      "barrel_percent": 7.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 41.8,
      "whiff_percent": 28.3
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 159,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.2,
      "season_IP": 62.2,
      "season_ERA": 3.16,
      "season_WHIP": 1.101,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 12.886,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7204,
        "prior_weight": 0.2796
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "676263",
      "report_date": "20260927",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 66,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 4.0,
            "BB": 3.0,
            "SO": 3.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 23.0,
            "Pitches": 80.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.0,
            "ER": 0.6,
            "R": 0.6,
            "H": 0.8,
            "BB": 0.6,
            "SO": 0.6,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 4.6,
            "Pitches": 16.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.0625,
            "WHIP": 1.3125,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.5625,
            "H_per_IP": 0.75,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.5625,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.5625,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 9.1,
            "ER": 5.0,
            "R": 5.0,
            "H": 9.0,
            "BB": 5.0,
            "SO": 5.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 41.0,
            "Pitches": 146.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.0,
            "ER": 0.5,
            "R": 0.5,
            "H": 0.9,
            "BB": 0.5,
            "SO": 0.5,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 4.1,
            "Pitches": 14.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.8214,
            "WHIP": 1.5,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.53571,
            "H_per_IP": 0.96429,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.53571,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.53571,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 66,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 62.2,
            "ER": 22.0,
            "R": 22.0,
            "H": 46.0,
            "BB": 23.0,
            "SO": 71.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 254.0,
            "Pitches": 1005.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.0,
            "ER": 0.3333,
            "R": 0.3333,
            "H": 0.697,
            "BB": 0.3485,
            "SO": 1.0758,
            "HR": 0.1061,
            "BF": 3.8485,
            "Pitches": 15.2273
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.1596,
            "WHIP": 1.1011,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.35106,
            "H_per_IP": 0.73404,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.36702,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.13298,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1117
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 2.1,
        "predicted_ER": 1.226,
        "predicted_H": 2.079,
        "predicted_BB": 1.142,
        "predicted_SO": 1.78,
        "predicted_HR": 0.138,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.6021,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3434
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4681,
      "form_weight": 0.5319,
      "form_reliability": 0.7204,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 12.886,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7204,
        "prior_weight": 0.2796
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 2.1,
          "final": 4.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.226,
          "final": 1.1202,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.079,
          "final": 2.5101,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.142,
          "final": 1.5437,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 1.78,
          "final": 4.2236,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 0.138,
          "final": 1.0097,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.6021,
          "final": 4.6021,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3434,
          "final": 1.3434,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 9.1,
        "ER": 5,
        "H": 9,
        "BB": 5,
        "SO": 5,
        "HR": 0,
        "ERA": 4.821428571428572,
        "WHIP": 1.5000000000000002,
        "K9": 4.821428571428572,
        "HR9": 0.0,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-23T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0126672402765533,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 7.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 12.886,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7204,
          "prior_weight": 0.2796
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 1,
          "predicted_H": 3,
          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 7,
          "predicted_HR": 2
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 1,
          "predicted_H": 3,
          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 7,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "676263",
      "player_name": "Jack Dreyer",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "LAD",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
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              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
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            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            {
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          ],
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 4,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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          ],
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            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
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          },
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        ],
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            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "LAD",
        "games": 161,
        "wins": 99,
        "losses": 62,
        "win_pct": 0.6149,
        "runs_scored": 796.0,
        "runs_allowed": 599.0,
        "run_differential": 197.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.2236,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.9441,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7205,
        "offense_index": 1.1047,
        "defense_index": 1.2029,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.7,
          "run_differential": 20.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.318
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "SF",
        "games": 161,
        "wins": 65,
        "losses": 96,
        "win_pct": 0.4037,
        "runs_scored": 668.0,
        "runs_allowed": 755.0,
        "run_differential": -87.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.5404,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1491,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6894,
        "offense_index": 0.9271,
        "defense_index": 0.9544,
        "current_streak": "L4",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4,
          "run_differential": -9.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.2183
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.5363,
        "offense_edge": 0.1047,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0729,
        "defense_strength": 0.2029,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0456,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.4
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0305,
        "run_prevention": 0.9412,
        "strikeout": 1.0219
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "676263",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "676263",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 233.0,
            "k_percent": 28.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.27,
            "xwoba": 0.29,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 25.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 41.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.8558,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.7984,
            "whiff_percent": 28.3,
            "swing_percent": 48.5
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.5,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6176,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8947,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.5003,
            "command_and_miss": 0.5407,
            "regression_edge": -0.5714,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.6,
            "barrel_edge": 0.0222,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.5571,
            "whiff_edge": 0.4429,
            "bb_edge": 0.0,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0087
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "676263",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 18,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 18,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.01857852918194,
              "release_spin_rate": 2458.5593322273385,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 18,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.01857852918194,
                "release_spin_rate": 2458.5593322273385,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.0186,
              "release_spin_rate": 2458.5593,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0087,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.0619,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.3395,
          "sample_weight": 0.932,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9711,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0485,
          "walk_factor": 1.0,
          "homer_factor": 1.0023,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.02,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "676263",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9731,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9731,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.0021,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 9.0,
            "factor": 1.0452,
            "adjusted": 9
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 20,
      "Pitches": 84,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least three innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -9 outs from the projected workload."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260927_LAD@SF.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260927

20260927_LAD@SF

home

Carson Seymour

True

4.0

1.0

-9

-4

6/0

1/0

6/1

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.695652173913043,
      "WHIP": 1.5326086956521738,
      "IP": 30.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 24,
      "role_avg_IP": 3.0,
      "recent_avg_IP": 3.0,
      "last_start_IP": 3.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.4294,
      "sample_weight": 0.484,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0365,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9757,
      "walk_factor": 1.0271,
      "homer_factor": 1.0543,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 15.7,
      "bb_percent": 11.9,
      "woba": 0.364,
      "xwoba": 0.385,
      "barrel_percent": 9.4,
      "hard_hit_percent": 39.6,
      "whiff_percent": 22.7
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 750,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 6.306,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.5577,
        "prior_weight": 0.4423
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "693313",
      "report_date": "20260927",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 24,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 1.0,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 2.0,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 3.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 18.0,
            "Pitches": 72.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.0,
            "ER": 0.2,
            "R": 0.6,
            "H": 0.4,
            "BB": 0.4,
            "SO": 0.6,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 3.6,
            "Pitches": 14.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.9286,
            "WHIP": 0.8571,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.21429,
            "H_per_IP": 0.42857,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.42857,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.64286,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.21429
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 8.2,
            "ER": 5.0,
            "R": 7.0,
            "H": 7.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 5.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 40.0,
            "Pitches": 148.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.0,
            "ER": 0.5,
            "R": 0.7,
            "H": 0.7,
            "BB": 0.7,
            "SO": 0.5,
            "HR": 0.3,
            "BF": 4.0,
            "Pitches": 14.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.1923,
            "WHIP": 1.6154,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.57692,
            "H_per_IP": 0.80769,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.80769,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.57692,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.34615
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 24,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 30.2,
            "ER": 16.0,
            "R": 19.0,
            "H": 31.0,
            "BB": 16.0,
            "SO": 22.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 137.0,
            "Pitches": 520.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.1,
            "ER": 0.6667,
            "R": 0.7917,
            "H": 1.2917,
            "BB": 0.6667,
            "SO": 0.9167,
            "HR": 0.25,
            "BF": 5.7083,
            "Pitches": 21.6667
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.6957,
            "WHIP": 1.5326,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.52174,
            "H_per_IP": 1.01087,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.52174,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.71739,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.19565
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 2.2,
        "predicted_ER": 1.2,
        "predicted_H": 2.162,
        "predicted_BB": 1.306,
        "predicted_SO": 2.042,
        "predicted_HR": 0.556,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.062,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3042
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.5369,
      "form_weight": 0.4631,
      "form_reliability": 0.5577,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 6.306,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.5577,
        "prior_weight": 0.4423
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      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.2,
          "form": 2.2,
          "final": 3.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 1.2,
          "final": 2.7032,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 2.162,
          "final": 4.2225,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.306,
          "final": 1.1417,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 2.042,
          "final": 4.1669,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 0.556,
          "final": 1.3312,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.062,
          "final": 4.062,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3042,
          "final": 1.3042,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 8.2,
        "ER": 5,
        "H": 7,
        "BB": 7,
        "SO": 5,
        "HR": 3,
        "ERA": 5.1923076923076925,
        "WHIP": 1.6153846153846154,
        "K9": 5.1923076923076925,
        "HR9": 3.1153846153846154,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": true
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-26T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0246800082647531,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
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          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
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        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 6.306,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.5577,
          "prior_weight": 0.4423
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      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.0,
          "predicted_ER": 4,
          "predicted_H": 6,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 6,
          "predicted_HR": 2
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "693313",
      "player_name": "Carson Seymour",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "SF",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.6667,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": -0.6667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1429,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.6667,
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              "delta": -0.6667,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
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            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.6667,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": -0.6667,
            "percent_delta": -0.1429,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
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          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.6667,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": -0.6667,
            "percent_delta": -0.1429,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "SF",
        "games": 161,
        "wins": 65,
        "losses": 96,
        "win_pct": 0.4037,
        "runs_scored": 668.0,
        "runs_allowed": 755.0,
        "run_differential": -87.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.5404,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1491,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6894,
        "offense_index": 0.9271,
        "defense_index": 0.9544,
        "current_streak": "L4",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4,
          "run_differential": -9.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.2183
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "LAD",
        "games": 161,
        "wins": 99,
        "losses": 62,
        "win_pct": 0.6149,
        "runs_scored": 796.0,
        "runs_allowed": 599.0,
        "run_differential": 197.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.2236,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.9441,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7205,
        "offense_index": 1.1047,
        "defense_index": 1.2029,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.7,
          "run_differential": 20.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.318
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.5363,
        "offense_edge": -0.0729,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.1047,
        "defense_strength": -0.0456,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.2029,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.4
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.973,
        "run_prevention": 1.0481,
        "strikeout": 0.9755
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "693313",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "693313",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 121.0,
            "k_percent": 15.7,
            "bb_percent": 11.9,
            "woba": 0.364,
            "xwoba": 0.385,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 37.5,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 9.4,
            "hard_hit_percent": 39.6,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.1603,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9282,
            "whiff_percent": 22.7,
            "swing_percent": 46.7
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.5,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6176,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8947,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -1.2011,
            "command_and_miss": -0.67,
            "regression_edge": -0.6,
            "xwoba_edge": -2.1143,
            "barrel_edge": -0.4889,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.2429,
            "whiff_edge": -0.3571,
            "bb_edge": -0.7,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.2465
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "693313",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 19,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 19,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 94.26568376704982,
              "release_spin_rate": 2239.5160098179445,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 19,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 94.26568376704982,
                "release_spin_rate": 2239.5160098179445,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 94.2657,
              "release_spin_rate": 2239.516,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.2465,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 1.7607,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.4294,
          "sample_weight": 0.484,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0365,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9757,
          "walk_factor": 1.0271,
          "homer_factor": 1.0543,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.021,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "693313",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0177,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 9.0,
            "factor": 1.0177,
            "adjusted": 9
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0131,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0263,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9882,
            "adjusted": 2
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.0,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 19,
      "Pitches": 76,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -4; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least three innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -9 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 6",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was -6."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "MISSED_SHUTDOWN",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Model missed a shutdown outing",
      "detail": "The pitcher allowed zero earned runs after a projection of 4 ER."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260927_LAD@SF.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260927

20260927_NYM@WAS

away

Sean Manaea

True

5.2

6.0

7/7

2/1

6/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.665898617511521,
      "WHIP": 1.2995391705069126,
      "IP": 144.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 32,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.648,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.533,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
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      "effective_weights": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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      "pitching": {
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      "fielding": {
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      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
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          "changed_metrics": [],
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          "weights": {},
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        {
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "changed_metrics": [
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    "team_form_snapshot": {
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      "opponent": {
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      "edges": {
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      "player_factors": {
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
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        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "640455",
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          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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          "components": {
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "640455",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 83,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 83,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 85.32242397875616,
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              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
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              "xwoba": 0.0,
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                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
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            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 85.3224,
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            "components": {
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.3304,
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          "regression_flag": "neutral",
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
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          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
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          "predicted_BB": {
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          "predicted_HR": {
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          "predicted_SO": {
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    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 7,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 26,
      "Pitches": 100,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260927_NYM@WAS.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260927

20260927_NYM@WAS

home

DJ Herz

True

3.2

3.0

-2

7/6

1/1

6/2

Last 10 before this game (1 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
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      "WHIP": 1.75,
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      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 1,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.0,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.0,
      "last_start_IP": 4.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
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      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9975,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0031,
      "walk_factor": 0.9991,
      "homer_factor": 0.997,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 22.7,
      "bb_percent": 9.0,
      "woba": 0.31,
      "xwoba": 0.308,
      "barrel_percent": 7.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 37.5,
      "whiff_percent": 25.7
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 632,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
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      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
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        "last_10": 0.35,
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      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 1.0
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      "shrinkage": {
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      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "687792",
      "report_date": "20260927",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 1,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.0,
      "windows": {
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          "totals": {
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            "ER": 4.0,
            "R": 4.0,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 4.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 19.0,
            "Pitches": 63.0
          },
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            "R": 4.0,
            "H": 5.0,
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            "Pitches": 63.0
          },
          "rates": {
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            "ER_per_IP": 1.0,
            "H_per_IP": 1.25,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.5,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.0,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.25
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 1,
          "totals": {
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            "ER": 4.0,
            "R": 4.0,
            "H": 5.0,
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            "SO": 4.0,
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          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.0,
            "ER": 4.0,
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            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 4.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 19.0,
            "Pitches": 63.0
          },
          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.75,
            "ER_per_IP": 1.0,
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            "BB_per_IP": 0.5,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.0,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.25
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        },
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            "H": 5.0,
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            "SO": 4.0,
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            "Pitches": 63.0
          },
          "per_game": {
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            "Pitches": 63.0
          },
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            "SO_per_IP": 1.0,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.25
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
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        "predicted_ER": 2.376,
        "predicted_H": 4.112,
        "predicted_BB": 1.598,
        "predicted_SO": 3.787,
        "predicted_HR": 0.663,
        "predicted_ERA": 5.345,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.4275
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
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      "adaptive_parameters": {
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
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        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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        "predicted_WHIP": {
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    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
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        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
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        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "insufficient_data"
      },
      "pitching": {
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        "ER": 4,
        "H": 5,
        "BB": 2,
        "SO": 4,
        "HR": 1,
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        "K9": 9.0,
        "HR9": 2.25,
        "games_pitched": 1,
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        "dominant_form": false,
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      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 1,
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      "games_count": 1,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-21T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0690918570445584,
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        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 5.0,
          "predicted_H": 7.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 6.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_H": 7,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 6,
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "687792",
      "player_name": "DJ Herz",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "WAS",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
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          "weights": {},
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        {
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          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
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        {
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          "player_name": "",
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            "reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0299,
          "sample_weight": 0.45,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9975,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0031,
          "walk_factor": 0.9991,
          "homer_factor": 0.997,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.002,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "687792",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9989,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9989,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9996,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9987,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0014,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 3.2,
      "predicted_H": 7,
      "predicted_R": 5,
      "predicted_ER": 5,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 20,
      "Pitches": 83,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 1 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260927_NYM@WAS.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260927

20260927_PIT@DET

away

Jared Jones

True

5.2

4.0

-5

-1

3/1

1/0

7/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.8703071672354947,
      "WHIP": 1.1160409556313993,
      "IP": 97.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 20,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.883,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.933,
      "last_start_IP": 7.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.5053,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9571,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0846,
      "walk_factor": 0.972,
      "homer_factor": 0.9831,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 29.4,
      "bb_percent": 7.7,
      "woba": 0.287,
      "xwoba": 0.281,
      "barrel_percent": 7.6,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.2,
      "whiff_percent": 32.6
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 67,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 20.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8,
        "prior_weight": 0.2
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "683003",
      "report_date": "20260927",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 20,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 29.2,
            "ER": 6.0,
            "R": 6.0,
            "H": 19.0,
            "BB": 5.0,
            "SO": 41.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 113.0,
            "Pitches": 444.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.2,
            "R": 1.2,
            "H": 3.8,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 8.2,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 22.6,
            "Pitches": 88.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.8202,
            "WHIP": 0.809,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.20225,
            "H_per_IP": 0.64045,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.16854,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.38202,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.03371
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 51.2,
            "ER": 23.0,
            "R": 23.0,
            "H": 44.0,
            "BB": 18.0,
            "SO": 65.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 218.0,
            "Pitches": 845.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.3,
            "R": 2.3,
            "H": 4.4,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 6.5,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 21.8,
            "Pitches": 84.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.0065,
            "WHIP": 1.2,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.44516,
            "H_per_IP": 0.85161,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.34839,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.25806,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11613
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 20,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 97.2,
            "ER": 42.0,
            "R": 43.0,
            "H": 78.0,
            "BB": 31.0,
            "SO": 118.0,
            "HR": 12.0,
            "BF": 402.0,
            "Pitches": 1579.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.1,
            "R": 2.15,
            "H": 3.9,
            "BB": 1.55,
            "SO": 5.9,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 20.1,
            "Pitches": 78.95
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.8703,
            "WHIP": 1.116,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.43003,
            "H_per_IP": 0.79863,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.31741,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.20819,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12287
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.036,
        "predicted_H": 4.38,
        "predicted_BB": 1.573,
        "predicted_SO": 6.791,
        "predicted_HR": 0.519,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.3191,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.0784
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4345,
      "form_weight": 0.5655,
      "form_reliability": 0.8,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 20.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8,
        "prior_weight": 0.2
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.1,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.036,
          "final": 1.5859,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 4.38,
          "final": 3.7804,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.573,
          "final": 1.324,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 6.791,
          "final": 5.1438,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.519,
          "final": 0.728,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.3191,
          "final": 3.3191,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.0784,
          "final": 1.0784,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 51.2,
        "ER": 23,
        "H": 44,
        "BB": 18,
        "SO": 65,
        "HR": 6,
        "ERA": 4.006451612903225,
        "WHIP": 1.2,
        "K9": 11.32258064516129,
        "HR9": 1.0451612903225806,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 4,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-22T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9414345621969595,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 3.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 20.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8,
          "prior_weight": 0.2
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.2,
          "predicted_ER": 1,
          "predicted_H": 3,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 7,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "683003",
      "player_name": "Jared Jones",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "PIT",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.1333,
              "percent_delta": -0.025,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 4.0,
              "percent_delta": 1.3333,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
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            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": {
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              "delta": 4.0,
              "percent_delta": 1.3333,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.1333,
              "percent_delta": -0.025,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_R": 1.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.2,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
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            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
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            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.1333,
            "percent_delta": -0.025,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 4.0,
            "percent_delta": 1.3333,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 2,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 1,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": {
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            "before": 3.0,
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            "delta": 4.0,
            "percent_delta": 1.3333,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.1333,
            "percent_delta": -0.025,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "PIT",
        "games": 161,
        "wins": 81,
        "losses": 80,
        "win_pct": 0.5031,
        "runs_scored": 763.0,
        "runs_allowed": 737.0,
        "run_differential": 26.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1615,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.7391,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5776,
        "offense_index": 1.0589,
        "defense_index": 0.9777,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0,
          "run_differential": 4.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0575
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "DET",
        "games": 161,
        "wins": 76,
        "losses": 85,
        "win_pct": 0.472,
        "runs_scored": 721.0,
        "runs_allowed": 648.0,
        "run_differential": 73.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.4534,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4783,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0248,
        "offense_index": 1.0006,
        "defense_index": 1.112,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6,
          "run_differential": -7.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0031
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0606,
        "offense_edge": 0.0589,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0006,
        "defense_strength": -0.0223,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.112,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0017,
        "run_prevention": 0.9993,
        "strikeout": 1.0018
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "683003",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "683003",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 379.0,
            "k_percent": 29.4,
            "bb_percent": 7.7,
            "woba": 0.287,
            "xwoba": 0.281,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.7,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.6,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.2,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.6723,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.0781,
            "whiff_percent": 32.6,
            "swing_percent": 49.3
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.5,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6176,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8947,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.4158,
            "command_and_miss": 0.9157,
            "regression_edge": 0.1714,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.8571,
            "barrel_edge": -0.0889,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.0429,
            "whiff_edge": 1.0571,
            "bb_edge": 0.35,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.2146
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "683003",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 89,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 89,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 93.69589250768729,
              "release_spin_rate": 2522.5526400784156,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 89,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 93.69589250768729,
                "release_spin_rate": 2522.5526400784156,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 93.6959,
              "release_spin_rate": 2522.5526,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.2146,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 1.5328,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.5053,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9571,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0846,
          "walk_factor": 0.972,
          "homer_factor": 0.9831,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.006,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "683003",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9571,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9571,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.972,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9831,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 1.0846,
            "adjusted": 8
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 87,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260927_PIT@DET.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260927

20260927_PIT@DET

home

River Ryan

True

3.0

1.1

-5

3/3

1/2

8/3

Last 10 before this game (1 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "ERA": 0.0,
      "WHIP": 1.0,
      "IP": 3.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 1,
      "role_avg_IP": 3.0,
      "recent_avg_IP": 3.0,
      "last_start_IP": 3.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0299,
      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9975,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0031,
      "walk_factor": 0.9991,
      "homer_factor": 0.997,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 22.7,
      "bb_percent": 9.0,
      "woba": 0.31,
      "xwoba": 0.308,
      "barrel_percent": 7.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 37.5,
      "whiff_percent": 25.7
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 343,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 1.0
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 1.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
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        "data_weight": 0.1667,
        "prior_weight": 0.8333
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "689981",
      "report_date": "20260927",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 1,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 1,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 3.0,
            "ER": 0.0,
            "R": 0.0,
            "H": 2.0,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 3.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 12.0,
            "Pitches": 43.0
          },
          "per_game": {
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            "ER": 0.0,
            "R": 0.0,
            "H": 2.0,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 3.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 12.0,
            "Pitches": 43.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 0.0,
            "WHIP": 1.0,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.0,
            "H_per_IP": 0.66667,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.33333,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.0,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 1,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 3.0,
            "ER": 0.0,
            "R": 0.0,
            "H": 2.0,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 3.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 12.0,
            "Pitches": 43.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.0,
            "ER": 0.0,
            "R": 0.0,
            "H": 2.0,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 3.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 12.0,
            "Pitches": 43.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 0.0,
            "WHIP": 1.0,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.0,
            "H_per_IP": 0.66667,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.33333,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.0,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 1,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 3.0,
            "ER": 0.0,
            "R": 0.0,
            "H": 2.0,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 3.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 12.0,
            "Pitches": 43.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.0,
            "ER": 0.0,
            "R": 0.0,
            "H": 2.0,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 3.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 12.0,
            "Pitches": 43.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 0.0,
            "WHIP": 1.0,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.0,
            "H_per_IP": 0.66667,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.33333,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.0,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 3.2,
        "predicted_ER": 1.638,
        "predicted_H": 3.568,
        "predicted_BB": 1.425,
        "predicted_SO": 3.629,
        "predicted_HR": 0.476,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.8447,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3025
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.7021,
      "form_weight": 0.2979,
      "form_reliability": 0.1667,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 1.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.1667,
        "prior_weight": 0.8333
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      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 3.2,
          "final": 4.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.638,
          "final": 1.1901,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 3.568,
          "final": 3.1692,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.425,
          "final": 1.1266,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 8.0,
          "form": 3.629,
          "final": 6.6977,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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          "form": 0.476,
          "final": 0.1418,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.8447,
          "final": 3.8447,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3025,
          "final": 1.3025,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "insufficient_data"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 3.0,
        "ER": 0,
        "H": 2,
        "BB": 1,
        "SO": 3,
        "HR": 0,
        "ERA": 0.0,
        "WHIP": 1.0,
        "K9": 9.0,
        "HR9": 0.0,
        "games_pitched": 1,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": true,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 1,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 1,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-21T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9484484931354742,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.0,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 8.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 1.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.1667,
          "prior_weight": 0.8333
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      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 3.0,
          "predicted_ER": 1,
          "predicted_H": 3,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 8,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "689981",
      "player_name": "River Ryan",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "DET",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.25,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.25,
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              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
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            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 3.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 1.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.25,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 8.0,
            "after": 8.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.25,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "DET",
        "games": 161,
        "wins": 76,
        "losses": 85,
        "win_pct": 0.472,
        "runs_scored": 721.0,
        "runs_allowed": 648.0,
        "run_differential": 73.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.4534,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4783,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0248,
        "offense_index": 1.0006,
        "defense_index": 1.112,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6,
          "run_differential": -7.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0031
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "PIT",
        "games": 161,
        "wins": 81,
        "losses": 80,
        "win_pct": 0.5031,
        "runs_scored": 763.0,
        "runs_allowed": 737.0,
        "run_differential": 26.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1615,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.7391,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5776,
        "offense_index": 1.0589,
        "defense_index": 0.9777,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0,
          "run_differential": 4.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0575
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0606,
        "offense_edge": 0.0006,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0589,
        "defense_strength": 0.112,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0223,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9986,
        "run_prevention": 1.0013,
        "strikeout": 0.9935
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "689981",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "689981",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 0.0,
            "k_percent": 22.7,
            "bb_percent": 9.0,
            "woba": 0.31,
            "xwoba": 0.308,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.2,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.5,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5089,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8602,
            "whiff_percent": 25.7,
            "swing_percent": 47.7
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.5,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6176,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8947,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.0737,
            "command_and_miss": 0.075,
            "regression_edge": 0.0571,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.0857,
            "barrel_edge": 0.0222,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.0571,
            "whiff_edge": 0.0714,
            "bb_edge": 0.025,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": false,
            "pitcher_id": "689981",
            "reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0299,
          "sample_weight": 0.45,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9975,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0031,
          "walk_factor": 0.9991,
          "homer_factor": 0.997,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.002,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "689981",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9989,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9989,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9996,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9987,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0014,
            "adjusted": 3
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 3.0,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 8,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 13,
      "Pitches": 63,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 1 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260927_PIT@DET.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260927

20260927_STL@MIL

away

Andre Pallante

True

5.1

5.0

-1

6/10

5/1

2/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.611464968152866,
      "WHIP": 1.2420382165605095,
      "IP": 157.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 28,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.607,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.4,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0257,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9978,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9434,
      "walk_factor": 0.968,
      "homer_factor": 0.9327,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 16.2,
      "bb_percent": 7.5,
      "woba": 0.298,
      "xwoba": 0.309,
      "barrel_percent": 4.7,
      "hard_hit_percent": 34.2,
      "whiff_percent": 21.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 59,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 28.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8485,
        "prior_weight": 0.1515
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "669467",
      "report_date": "20260927",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 28,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 27.0,
            "ER": 13.0,
            "R": 15.0,
            "H": 28.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 14.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 115.0,
            "Pitches": 436.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.6,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 5.6,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 2.8,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 23.0,
            "Pitches": 87.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.3333,
            "WHIP": 1.3704,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.48148,
            "H_per_IP": 1.03704,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.33333,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.51852,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.03704
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 57.0,
            "ER": 19.0,
            "R": 21.0,
            "H": 49.0,
            "BB": 20.0,
            "SO": 34.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 231.0,
            "Pitches": 904.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 1.9,
            "R": 2.1,
            "H": 4.9,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 3.4,
            "HR": 0.1,
            "BF": 23.1,
            "Pitches": 90.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.0,
            "WHIP": 1.2105,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.33333,
            "H_per_IP": 0.85965,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.35088,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.59649,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.01754
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 28,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 157.0,
            "ER": 63.0,
            "R": 67.0,
            "H": 146.0,
            "BB": 49.0,
            "SO": 106.0,
            "HR": 11.0,
            "BF": 654.0,
            "Pitches": 2551.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.25,
            "R": 2.3929,
            "H": 5.2143,
            "BB": 1.75,
            "SO": 3.7857,
            "HR": 0.3929,
            "BF": 23.3571,
            "Pitches": 91.1071
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.6115,
            "WHIP": 1.242,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.40127,
            "H_per_IP": 0.92994,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.3121,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.67516,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07006
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.353,
        "predicted_H": 5.259,
        "predicted_BB": 1.877,
        "predicted_SO": 3.466,
        "predicted_HR": 0.295,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.8574,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.414,
      "form_weight": 0.586,
      "form_reliability": 0.8485,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_size": 28.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8485,
        "prior_weight": 0.1515
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.1,
          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.353,
          "final": 3.0349,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 5.259,
          "final": 5.5658,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 1.877,
          "final": 3.1699,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 3.466,
          "final": 2.8591,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.295,
          "final": 0.1729,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.8574,
          "final": 3.8574,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3,
          "final": 1.3,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 57.0,
        "ER": 19,
        "H": 49,
        "BB": 20,
        "SO": 34,
        "HR": 1,
        "ERA": 3.0,
        "WHIP": 1.2105263157894737,
        "K9": 5.368421052631579,
        "HR9": 0.15789473684210525,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 4,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-22T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8284719136400835,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 6.0,
          "predicted_BB": 5.0,
          "predicted_SO": 2.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 28.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8485,
          "prior_weight": 0.1515
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "669467",
      "player_name": "Andre Pallante",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "STL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 5.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 2.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 5.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.1,
            "predicted_R": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 2.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0438,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
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            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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          {
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          },
          {
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
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        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0437,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "STL",
        "games": 161,
        "wins": 77,
        "losses": 84,
        "win_pct": 0.4783,
        "runs_scored": 716.0,
        "runs_allowed": 743.0,
        "run_differential": -27.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.1677,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4472,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6149,
        "offense_index": 0.9937,
        "defense_index": 0.9698,
        "current_streak": "L3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 2,
          "losses": 8,
          "win_pct": 0.2,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.2,
          "run_differential": -21.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1441
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "MIL",
        "games": 161,
        "wins": 102,
        "losses": 59,
        "win_pct": 0.6335,
        "runs_scored": 826.0,
        "runs_allowed": 614.0,
        "run_differential": 212.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.3168,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.1304,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8137,
        "offense_index": 1.1463,
        "defense_index": 1.1735,
        "current_streak": "W4",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 8,
          "losses": 2,
          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.0,
          "run_differential": 13.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.3803
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.5244,
        "offense_edge": -0.0063,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.1463,
        "defense_strength": -0.0302,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1735,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.6
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9723,
        "run_prevention": 1.0526,
        "strikeout": 0.9726
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "669467",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "669467",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 598.0,
            "k_percent": 16.2,
            "bb_percent": 7.5,
            "woba": 0.298,
            "xwoba": 0.309,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 29.9,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 4.7,
            "hard_hit_percent": 34.2,
            "avg_best_speed": 75.4273,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.4989,
            "whiff_percent": 21.1,
            "swing_percent": 44.7
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.5,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6176,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8947,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.3321,
            "command_and_miss": -0.4979,
            "regression_edge": -0.3143,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.0571,
            "barrel_edge": 0.5556,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.5286,
            "whiff_edge": -0.5857,
            "bb_edge": 0.4,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0069
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "669467",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 86,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 86,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.9870971466055,
              "release_spin_rate": 2284.8010573767824,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 86,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.9870971466055,
                "release_spin_rate": 2284.8010573767824,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.9871,
              "release_spin_rate": 2284.8011,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0069,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.0493,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0257,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9978,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9434,
          "walk_factor": 0.968,
          "homer_factor": 0.9327,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.011,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "669467",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9978,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9978,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.968,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9327,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9434,
            "adjusted": 3
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 5,
      "predicted_SO": 2,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 27,
      "Pitches": 115,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +2."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +4."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -4."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260927_STL@MIL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260927

20260927_STL@MIL

home

Jacob Misiorowski

True

6.0

5.1

-2

2/2

0/2

6/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "ERA": 1.8602362204724407,
      "WHIP": 0.8031496062992125,
      "IP": 169.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 29,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.839,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.867,
      "last_start_IP": 3.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 1.3904,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.8818,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.16,
      "walk_factor": 0.948,
      "homer_factor": 0.8348,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 38.2,
      "bb_percent": 6.5,
      "woba": 0.217,
      "xwoba": 0.223,
      "barrel_percent": 3.7,
      "hard_hit_percent": 33.0,
      "whiff_percent": 37.2
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 5,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 6.0,
      "season_IP": 169.1,
      "season_ERA": 1.86,
      "season_WHIP": 0.803,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 29.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8529,
        "prior_weight": 0.1471
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "694819",
      "report_date": "20260927",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 29,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
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          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 24.1,
            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 8.0,
            "H": 17.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 31.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 96.0,
            "Pitches": 400.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 1.6,
            "R": 1.6,
            "H": 3.4,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 6.2,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 19.2,
            "Pitches": 80.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.9589,
            "WHIP": 1.0685,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.32877,
            "H_per_IP": 0.69863,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.36986,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.27397,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0411
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 54.1,
            "ER": 15.0,
            "R": 15.0,
            "H": 33.0,
            "BB": 14.0,
            "SO": 74.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 207.0,
            "Pitches": 854.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 1.5,
            "R": 1.5,
            "H": 3.3,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 7.4,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 20.7,
            "Pitches": 85.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.4847,
            "WHIP": 0.865,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.27607,
            "H_per_IP": 0.60736,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.25767,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.36196,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09202
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 29,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 169.1,
            "ER": 35.0,
            "R": 43.0,
            "H": 94.0,
            "BB": 42.0,
            "SO": 247.0,
            "HR": 14.0,
            "BF": 646.0,
            "Pitches": 2579.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.2069,
            "R": 1.4828,
            "H": 3.2414,
            "BB": 1.4483,
            "SO": 8.5172,
            "HR": 0.4828,
            "BF": 22.2759,
            "Pitches": 88.931
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.8602,
            "WHIP": 0.8031,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.20669,
            "H_per_IP": 0.55512,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.24803,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.45866,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08268
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 1.73,
        "predicted_H": 3.731,
        "predicted_BB": 1.717,
        "predicted_SO": 6.945,
        "predicted_HR": 0.429,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.8734,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.0058
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4121,
      "form_weight": 0.5879,
      "form_reliability": 0.8529,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 29.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8529,
        "prior_weight": 0.1471
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.73,
          "final": 1.8413,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 3.731,
          "final": 3.0176,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.717,
          "final": 1.0093,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 6.945,
          "final": 5.7312,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.429,
          "final": 0.2522,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.8734,
          "final": 2.8734,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.0058,
          "final": 1.0058,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 54.1,
        "ER": 15,
        "H": 33,
        "BB": 14,
        "SO": 74,
        "HR": 5,
        "ERA": 2.484662576687117,
        "WHIP": 0.8650306748466259,
        "K9": 12.257668711656443,
        "HR9": 0.8282208588957056,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 6,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-20T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.7618590624938131,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 29.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8529,
          "prior_weight": 0.1471
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 2,
          "predicted_BB": 0,
          "predicted_SO": 7,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "694819",
      "player_name": "Jacob Misiorowski",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "MIL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 3.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.75,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 1,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 3.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.75,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.1429,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.1429,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 2.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.5,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 0,
          "better_metrics": 1,
          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 2.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.5,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "MIL",
        "games": 161,
        "wins": 102,
        "losses": 59,
        "win_pct": 0.6335,
        "runs_scored": 826.0,
        "runs_allowed": 614.0,
        "run_differential": 212.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.3168,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.1304,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8137,
        "offense_index": 1.1463,
        "defense_index": 1.1735,
        "current_streak": "W4",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 8,
          "losses": 2,
          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.0,
          "run_differential": 13.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.3803
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "STL",
        "games": 161,
        "wins": 77,
        "losses": 84,
        "win_pct": 0.4783,
        "runs_scored": 716.0,
        "runs_allowed": 743.0,
        "run_differential": -27.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.1677,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4472,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6149,
        "offense_index": 0.9937,
        "defense_index": 0.9698,
        "current_streak": "L3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 2,
          "losses": 8,
          "win_pct": 0.2,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.2,
          "run_differential": -21.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1441
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.5244,
        "offense_edge": 0.1463,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0063,
        "defense_strength": 0.1735,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0302,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.6
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0264,
        "run_prevention": 0.9554,
        "strikeout": 1.0162
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "694819",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "694819",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 614.0,
            "k_percent": 38.2,
            "bb_percent": 6.5,
            "woba": 0.217,
            "xwoba": 0.223,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 3.7,
            "hard_hit_percent": 33.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.432,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 92.9697,
            "whiff_percent": 37.2,
            "swing_percent": 51.3
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.5,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6176,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8947,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 1.6511,
            "command_and_miss": 1.7714,
            "regression_edge": -0.1714,
            "xwoba_edge": 2.5,
            "barrel_edge": 0.7778,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.7,
            "whiff_edge": 1.7143,
            "bb_edge": 0.65,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.28
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "694819",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 92,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 92,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 97.5350871630707,
              "release_spin_rate": 2568.640260744372,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 92,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 97.5350871630707,
                "release_spin_rate": 2568.640260744372,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 97.5351,
              "release_spin_rate": 2568.6403,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.28,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 2.0,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 1.3904,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.8818,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.16,
          "walk_factor": 0.948,
          "homer_factor": 0.8348,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.006,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "694819",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.8818,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.8818,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.948,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.8348,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 1.16,
            "adjusted": 8
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 82,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: True; actual quality start: False."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260927_STL@MIL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260927

20260927_TB@PHI

away

Nick Martinez

True

6.0

2.2

-10

8/7

0/1

4/1

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.943609022556391,
      "WHIP": 1.0657894736842104,
      "IP": 177.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 30,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.911,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.933,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.0293,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0025,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9171,
      "walk_factor": 0.888,
      "homer_factor": 0.9551,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 15.3,
      "bb_percent": 3.5,
      "woba": 0.289,
      "xwoba": 0.305,
      "barrel_percent": 6.7,
      "hard_hit_percent": 32.5,
      "whiff_percent": 17.4
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 18,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 30.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8571,
        "prior_weight": 0.1429
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "607259",
      "report_date": "20260927",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 30,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 29.2,
            "ER": 10.0,
            "R": 10.0,
            "H": 24.0,
            "BB": 3.0,
            "SO": 21.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 113.0,
            "Pitches": 405.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 4.8,
            "BB": 0.6,
            "SO": 4.2,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 22.6,
            "Pitches": 81.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.0337,
            "WHIP": 0.9101,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.33708,
            "H_per_IP": 0.80899,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.10112,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.70787,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.16854
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 60.0,
            "ER": 26.0,
            "R": 26.0,
            "H": 55.0,
            "BB": 5.0,
            "SO": 41.0,
            "HR": 11.0,
            "BF": 233.0,
            "Pitches": 826.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 2.6,
            "R": 2.6,
            "H": 5.5,
            "BB": 0.5,
            "SO": 4.1,
            "HR": 1.1,
            "BF": 23.3,
            "Pitches": 82.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.9,
            "WHIP": 1.0,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.43333,
            "H_per_IP": 0.91667,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.08333,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.68333,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.18333
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 30,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 177.1,
            "ER": 58.0,
            "R": 58.0,
            "H": 164.0,
            "BB": 25.0,
            "SO": 108.0,
            "HR": 22.0,
            "BF": 706.0,
            "Pitches": 2474.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.9333,
            "R": 1.9333,
            "H": 5.4667,
            "BB": 0.8333,
            "SO": 3.6,
            "HR": 0.7333,
            "BF": 23.5333,
            "Pitches": 82.4667
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.9436,
            "WHIP": 1.0658,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.32707,
            "H_per_IP": 0.92481,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.14098,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.60902,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12406
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.336,
        "predicted_H": 5.317,
        "predicted_BB": 0.854,
        "predicted_SO": 4.297,
        "predicted_HR": 0.975,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.5039,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.0285
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4104,
      "form_weight": 0.5896,
      "form_reliability": 0.8571,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 30.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8571,
        "prior_weight": 0.1429
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 6.0,
          "final": 6.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.336,
          "final": 2.6085,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 8.0,
          "form": 5.317,
          "final": 6.418,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.854,
          "final": 0.5035,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 4.297,
          "final": 3.7647,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.975,
          "final": 0.5749,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.5039,
          "final": 3.5039,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.0285,
          "final": 1.0285,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 60.0,
        "ER": 26,
        "H": 55,
        "BB": 5,
        "SO": 41,
        "HR": 11,
        "ERA": 3.9000000000000004,
        "WHIP": 1.0000000000000002,
        "K9": 6.15,
        "HR9": 1.6500000000000001,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 5,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-22T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9244587557453467,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 8.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 3.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 30.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8571,
          "prior_weight": 0.1429
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 8,
          "predicted_BB": 0,
          "predicted_SO": 4,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "607259",
      "player_name": "Nick Martinez",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "TB",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 8.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 8.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.3333,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 1,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.3333,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 8.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 8.0,
            "after": 8.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.3333,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 0,
          "better_metrics": 1,
          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.3333,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "TB",
        "games": 161,
        "wins": 98,
        "losses": 63,
        "win_pct": 0.6087,
        "runs_scored": 733.0,
        "runs_allowed": 643.0,
        "run_differential": 90.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.559,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5528,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.9938,
        "offense_index": 1.0161,
        "defense_index": 1.1219,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.6,
          "run_differential": 19.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.196
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "PHI",
        "games": 161,
        "wins": 87,
        "losses": 74,
        "win_pct": 0.5404,
        "runs_scored": 706.0,
        "runs_allowed": 695.0,
        "run_differential": 11.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0683,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3851,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3168,
        "offense_index": 0.9786,
        "defense_index": 1.038,
        "current_streak": "L4",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 2.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
          "run_differential": -17.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0077
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.1883,
        "offense_edge": 0.0161,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0214,
        "defense_strength": 0.1219,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.038,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.012,
        "run_prevention": 0.975,
        "strikeout": 1.0074
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "607259",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "607259",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 680.0,
            "k_percent": 15.3,
            "bb_percent": 3.5,
            "woba": 0.289,
            "xwoba": 0.305,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.6,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.7,
            "hard_hit_percent": 32.5,
            "avg_best_speed": 75.6782,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.0609,
            "whiff_percent": 17.4,
            "swing_percent": 50.8
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.5,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6176,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8947,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.3016,
            "command_and_miss": -0.5407,
            "regression_edge": -0.4571,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.1714,
            "barrel_edge": 0.1111,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.7714,
            "whiff_edge": -1.1143,
            "bb_edge": 1.4,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.1491
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "607259",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 79,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 79,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 87.20062905927892,
              "release_spin_rate": 2197.645020819482,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 79,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 87.20062905927892,
                "release_spin_rate": 2197.645020819482,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.2006,
              "release_spin_rate": 2197.645,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1491,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.0653,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.0293,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0025,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9171,
          "walk_factor": 0.888,
          "homer_factor": 0.9551,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.016,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "607259",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0025,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0025,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.888,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9551,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9171,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 8,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 26,
      "Pitches": 100,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least three innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -10 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: True; actual quality start: False."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260927_TB@PHI.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260927

20260927_TB@PHI

home

Zack Wheeler

True

6.0

-2

3/5

2/0

3/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.0576923076923075,
      "WHIP": 1.0576923076923077,
      "IP": 156.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 27,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.778,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.333,
      "last_start_IP": 5.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.7492,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9363,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0823,
      "walk_factor": 0.97,
      "homer_factor": 0.9227,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 30.2,
      "bb_percent": 7.6,
      "woba": 0.278,
      "xwoba": 0.265,
      "barrel_percent": 6.0,
      "hard_hit_percent": 35.0,
      "whiff_percent": 31.4
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 8,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 27.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
        "prior_weight": 0.1562
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "554430",
      "report_date": "20260927",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 27,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 31.2,
            "ER": 6.0,
            "R": 6.0,
            "H": 21.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 40.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 123.0,
            "Pitches": 505.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.1,
            "ER": 1.2,
            "R": 1.2,
            "H": 4.2,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 8.0,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 24.6,
            "Pitches": 101.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.7053,
            "WHIP": 0.9474,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.18947,
            "H_per_IP": 0.66316,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.28421,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.26316,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.03158
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 53.0,
            "ER": 24.0,
            "R": 25.0,
            "H": 46.0,
            "BB": 24.0,
            "SO": 65.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 226.0,
            "Pitches": 938.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.5,
            "H": 4.6,
            "BB": 2.4,
            "SO": 6.5,
            "HR": 0.7,
            "BF": 22.6,
            "Pitches": 93.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.0755,
            "WHIP": 1.3208,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.45283,
            "H_per_IP": 0.86792,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.45283,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.22642,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13208
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 27,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 156.0,
            "ER": 53.0,
            "R": 54.0,
            "H": 118.0,
            "BB": 47.0,
            "SO": 188.0,
            "HR": 20.0,
            "BF": 622.0,
            "Pitches": 2552.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 1.963,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 4.3704,
            "BB": 1.7407,
            "SO": 6.963,
            "HR": 0.7407,
            "BF": 23.037,
            "Pitches": 94.5185
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.0577,
            "WHIP": 1.0577,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.33974,
            "H_per_IP": 0.75641,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.30128,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.20513,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12821
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.015,
        "predicted_H": 4.637,
        "predicted_BB": 2.066,
        "predicted_SO": 6.998,
        "predicted_HR": 0.563,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.0878,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1412
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.416,
      "form_weight": 0.584,
      "form_reliability": 0.8438,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 27.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
        "prior_weight": 0.1562
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 6.0,
          "final": 6.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.015,
          "final": 2.4248,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 4.637,
          "final": 3.956,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.066,
          "final": 2.0385,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 6.998,
          "final": 4.5029,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.563,
          "final": 0.3288,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.0878,
          "final": 3.0878,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1412,
          "final": 1.1412,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 53.0,
        "ER": 24,
        "H": 46,
        "BB": 24,
        "SO": 65,
        "HR": 7,
        "ERA": 4.075471698113207,
        "WHIP": 1.320754716981132,
        "K9": 11.037735849056602,
        "HR9": 1.1886792452830186,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 4,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-22T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9522181897076107,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 1.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 27.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8438,
          "prior_weight": 0.1562
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 3,
          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 7,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "554430",
      "player_name": "Zack Wheeler",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "PHI",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 6.0,
              "percent_delta": 6.0,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 6.0,
              "percent_delta": 6.0,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -4.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.5714,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -4.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.5714,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 2.0,
            "percent_delta": 2.0,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
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          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 2.0,
            "percent_delta": 2.0,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "PHI",
        "games": 161,
        "wins": 87,
        "losses": 74,
        "win_pct": 0.5404,
        "runs_scored": 706.0,
        "runs_allowed": 695.0,
        "run_differential": 11.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0683,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3851,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3168,
        "offense_index": 0.9786,
        "defense_index": 1.038,
        "current_streak": "L4",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 2.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
          "run_differential": -17.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0077
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "TB",
        "games": 161,
        "wins": 98,
        "losses": 63,
        "win_pct": 0.6087,
        "runs_scored": 733.0,
        "runs_allowed": 643.0,
        "run_differential": 90.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.559,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5528,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.9938,
        "offense_index": 1.0161,
        "defense_index": 1.1219,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.6,
          "run_differential": 19.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.196
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.1883,
        "offense_edge": -0.0214,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0161,
        "defense_strength": 0.038,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1219,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.993,
        "run_prevention": 1.0082,
        "strikeout": 0.9931
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "554430",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "554430",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 598.0,
            "k_percent": 30.2,
            "bb_percent": 7.6,
            "woba": 0.278,
            "xwoba": 0.265,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.9,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.0,
            "hard_hit_percent": 35.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 74.3242,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.3559,
            "whiff_percent": 31.4,
            "swing_percent": 50.0
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.5,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6176,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8947,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.8454,
            "command_and_miss": 0.9121,
            "regression_edge": 0.3714,
            "xwoba_edge": 1.3143,
            "barrel_edge": 0.2667,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.4143,
            "whiff_edge": 0.8857,
            "bb_edge": 0.375,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0183
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "554430",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 101,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 101,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.19030757034128,
              "release_spin_rate": 2366.8015860556898,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 101,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.19030757034128,
                "release_spin_rate": 2366.8015860556898,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.1903,
              "release_spin_rate": 2366.8016,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0183,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.1306,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.7492,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9363,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0823,
          "walk_factor": 0.97,
          "homer_factor": 0.9227,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.013,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "554430",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9363,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9363,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.97,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9227,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 1.0823,
            "adjusted": 8
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 3,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 93,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260927_TB@PHI.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260927

20260927_TEX@MIN

away

MacKenzie Gore

True

4.2

2.1

-7

-3

3/1

2/1

6/0

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.587890625,
      "WHIP": 1.341796875,
      "IP": 170.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 33,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.172,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.267,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.0124,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0011,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0086,
      "walk_factor": 1.006,
      "homer_factor": 1.0426,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 23.5,
      "bb_percent": 9.4,
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    "espn_rank": {
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    },
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      "effective_weights": {
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          },
          "per_game": {
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          "rates": {
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        },
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          "per_game": {
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          "rates": {
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        },
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            "SO_per_IP": 1.01953,
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      "adaptive_parameters": {
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        "predicted_ER": {
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        "predicted_BB": {
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        "predicted_SO": {
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        "predicted_HR": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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        "predicted_WHIP": {
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        "AVG": 0,
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        "hot_streak": false,
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        "trend": "stable"
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      "pitching": {
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        "ER": 22,
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        "BB": 26,
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        "HR": 3,
        "ERA": 4.124999999999999,
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        "games_pitched": 10,
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      "fielding": {
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        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
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      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-22T00:00:00"
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      "role": "pitcher",
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      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "TEX",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
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          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
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          "weights": {},
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        {
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          "step": "current_json_final",
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          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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      "total_change": {
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        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
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        "win_pct": 0.4969,
        "runs_scored": 669.0,
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        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2733,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1553,
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      "opponent": {
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        "win_pct": 0.472,
        "runs_scored": 733.0,
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        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3727,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5528,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9255,
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        "available": true,
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      "edges": {
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        "offense_edge": -0.0715,
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        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
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      "player_factors": {
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        "strikeout": 0.9986
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "669022",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "669022",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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          "league_medians": {
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            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
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            "swing_percent": 47.4
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          "components": {
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "669022",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 79,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 79,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.23294676003985,
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              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
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              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            "pitch_mix": [
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                "pitches": 79,
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                "release_speed": 90.23294676003985,
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                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
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                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.2329,
              "release_spin_rate": 2168.3871,
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              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
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              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
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              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
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            "components": {
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              "velocity_edge": 0.1476,
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              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.0124,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0011,
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          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "669022",
            "espn_rank": null
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0011,
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          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
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          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
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          "predicted_HR": {
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0086,
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    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
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      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 19,
      "Pitches": 79,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
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  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -7 outs from the projected workload."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260927_TEX@MIN.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260927

20260927_TEX@MIN

home

Dean Kremer

True

5.0

7.0

-1

4/3

0/0

5/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
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      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 16,
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      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
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      "hard_hit_percent": 35.8,
      "whiff_percent": 28.7
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    "espn_rank": {
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      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
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      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
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      "effective_weights": {
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            "SO_per_IP": 0.97297,
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        },
        "last_10": {
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            "R": 29.0,
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            "BB": 21.0,
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          "per_game": {
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        },
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          "per_game": {
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      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
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        "predicted_H": 4.389,
        "predicted_BB": 1.977,
        "predicted_SO": 4.827,
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    },
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        "predicted_ER": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
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        "AVG": 0,
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      "pitching": {
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      "fielding": {
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-20T00:00:00"
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        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "role": "pitcher",
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      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "MIN",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
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          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [],
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          "weights": {},
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        {
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          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            {
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            {
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            {
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          ],
          "summary": {
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "changed_metrics": [
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        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "665152",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
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            "pitcher_id": "665152",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 86,
            "primary_pitch": {
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              "pitches": 86,
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              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
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            "pitch_mix": [
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            ],
            "summary": {
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
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      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 19,
      "Pitches": 86,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by +6 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260927_TEX@MIN.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}