Continuous postgame learning

daily_20260926 · dates 20260926 · generated 2026-09-27T09:00:18.502845+00:00

7-6

Winner picks · 53.8%

Comparable starters · 0 identity mismatches

9/26

Starter ER within ±1

10/26

Starter workload within ±1 inning

Slate coverage

Every calendar day in the requested window is listed. Pending means the prediction exists but the official final result has not settled; Missing review artifact identifies a data gap instead of hiding the day.

Date	Games	Settled	Pending	Hits	Misses	Calibration traces	Review status	Pipeline versions
20260926	14	13	1	7	6	14	Available	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Prioritized optimization roadmap

Runtime evidence for the six recommendations. “Observed games” counts artifacts generated with the relevant trace; older artifacts remain honestly blank.

Priority	Change	Status	Observed games	Evidence
P1	Empirical Confidence Blend	Implemented And Applied	14	applied games: 14formula: w_emp=min(0.5,sample_size/200); final=(1-w_emp)raw+w_empempirical_hit_rate
P1	H2H Base Feature	Implemented And Monitored	14	available games: 13
P2	Score Distribution Widening	Implemented Above 1.4X	14	variance multipliers: [2.15]
P2	Simulation Flip Control	Diagnostic Only Without Independent Support	14	simulation flip candidates: 0published flips: 0
P3	Recent Form Quality Blend	Implemented Last 10	14	configured window: 10last 10 games: 14observed windows: [10]
P3	Continuous Calibration Audit	Implemented	14	settled games: 13metric: bucket_calibration_error

Confidence calibration by bucket

bucket_calibration_error = average published confidence − observed hit rate. Positive means overconfident; negative means underconfident. Weighted absolute error: 0.1524.

Bucket	Games	Average confidence	Observed hit rate	Calibration error	Direction
0.50-0.55	8	52.1%	50.0%	2.1%	overconfident
0.55-0.60	2	55.7%	100.0%	-44.3%	underconfident
0.60-0.65	2	61.4%	50.0%	11.3%	overconfident
0.65-0.70	1	69.8%	0.0%	69.8%	overconfident

Where the score pipeline gained or lost quality

Direct comparison against official final runs. Positive deltas mean the stage was worse than historical_ml; this is score error, not a synthetic one-game ERA.

Stage	Games	Team-run MAE	Total-run MAE	Margin MAE	Winner accuracy	Δ team MAE vs base	Δ margin MAE vs base
historical_ml	13	2.7122	3.588	4.6277	69.2%	0.0	0.0
variance_applied	13	2.7308	3.6154	4.6923	46.2%	0.0186	0.0646
enhanced_prediction	13	2.6923	3.3846	4.7692	53.8%	-0.0199	0.1415
embedded_savant_run_environment	13	2.7692	3.5385	4.9231	53.8%	0.057	0.2954
fundamental_edge_target_review	13	2.8077	3.6154	5.0	53.8%	0.0955	0.3723
capped_target	13	2.8077	3.6154	5.0	53.8%	0.0955	0.3723
simulation_result	13	2.8077	3.6154	5.0	53.8%	0.0955	0.3723
published_final	13	2.8077	3.6154	5.0	53.8%	0.0955	0.3723

Largest measured regression

{
  "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
  "games": 13,
  "team_run_mae": 2.8077,
  "total_run_mae": 3.6154,
  "margin_mae": 5.0,
  "winner_hits": 7,
  "winner_accuracy": 0.5385,
  "team_run_mae_delta_vs_historical_ml": 0.0955,
  "margin_mae_delta_vs_historical_ml": 0.3723
}

Automatic questions

Which recorded score stage reinforced losing picks?

partial_attribution sample=6

Largest positive recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. Positive, negative, net, absolute, and unchanged movements are shown separately so opposite games cannot cancel into a misleading zero. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution.

Stage	Positive Toward Pick Run Delta	Negative Away From Pick Run Delta	Net Toward Pick Run Delta	Absolute Run Movement	Games Recorded	Games Supporting Pick	Games Opposing Pick	Games Unchanged	Meaning
enhanced_prediction	6.0	-1.0	5.0	7.0	6	3	1	2	reinforced final pick
embedded_savant_run_environment	2.0	-1.0	1.0	3.0	6	2	1	3	reinforced final pick
variance_applied	1.1538	-0.4373	0.7165	1.5911	6	2	4	0	reinforced final pick
fundamental_edge_target_review	1.0	0.0	1.0	1.0	6	1	0	5	reinforced final pick
capped_target	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	6	0	0	6	recorded but did not change score margin
simulation_result	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	6	0	0	6	recorded but did not change score margin

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "partial_attribution",
  "sample_size": 6,
  "top_stage": "enhanced_prediction",
  "ranking": [
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 6.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -1.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 5.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 7.0,
      "games_recorded": 6,
      "games_supporting_pick": 3,
      "games_opposing_pick": 1,
      "games_unchanged": 2,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 2.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -1.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 3.0,
      "games_recorded": 6,
      "games_supporting_pick": 2,
      "games_opposing_pick": 1,
      "games_unchanged": 3,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.1538,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -0.4373,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.7165,
      "absolute_run_movement": 1.5911,
      "games_recorded": 6,
      "games_supporting_pick": 2,
      "games_opposing_pick": 4,
      "games_unchanged": 0,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 1.0,
      "games_recorded": 6,
      "games_supporting_pick": 1,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 5,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 6,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 6,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 6,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 6,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    }
  ],
  "interpretation": "Largest positive recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. Positive, negative, net, absolute, and unchanged movements are shown separately so opposite games cannot cancel into a misleading zero. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution."
}

Which recorded score stage reinforced winning picks?

partial_attribution sample=7

Stage	Positive Toward Pick Run Delta	Negative Away From Pick Run Delta	Net Toward Pick Run Delta	Absolute Run Movement	Games Recorded	Games Supporting Pick	Games Opposing Pick	Games Unchanged	Meaning
enhanced_prediction	3.0	-1.0	2.0	4.0	7	3	1	3	reinforced final pick
variance_applied	1.4908	-1.8856	-0.3948	3.3764	7	3	4	0	reinforced final pick
embedded_savant_run_environment	1.0	0.0	1.0	1.0	7	1	0	6	reinforced final pick
fundamental_edge_target_review	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	7	0	0	7	recorded but did not change score margin
capped_target	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	7	0	0	7	recorded but did not change score margin
simulation_result	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	7	0	0	7	recorded but did not change score margin

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "partial_attribution",
  "sample_size": 7,
  "top_stage": "enhanced_prediction",
  "ranking": [
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 3.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -1.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 2.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 4.0,
      "games_recorded": 7,
      "games_supporting_pick": 3,
      "games_opposing_pick": 1,
      "games_unchanged": 3,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.4908,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -1.8856,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": -0.3948,
      "absolute_run_movement": 3.3764,
      "games_recorded": 7,
      "games_supporting_pick": 3,
      "games_opposing_pick": 4,
      "games_unchanged": 0,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 1.0,
      "games_recorded": 7,
      "games_supporting_pick": 1,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 6,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 7,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 7,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 7,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 7,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 7,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 7,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    }
  ],
  "interpretation": "Largest positive recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. Positive, negative, net, absolute, and unchanged movements are shown separately so opposite games cannot cancel into a misleading zero. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution."
}

Are Overs performing worse than Unders?

not_measurable sample=0

The current artifacts contain predicted totals but no total line, Over/Under selection, price, or settled total bet.

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "The current artifacts contain predicted totals but no total line, Over/Under selection, price, or settled total bet.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "total_line",
    "total_selection",
    "odds",
    "settled_result"
  ]
}

Are hitter props outperforming pitcher props?

not_measurable sample=0

Player stat projections are not stored as priced, selected, and settled prop predictions.

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "Player stat projections are not stored as priced, selected, and settled prop predictions.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "prop_family",
    "prop_line",
    "selection",
    "odds",
    "settled_result"
  ]
}

Which sportsbooks produce better opportunities?

not_measurable sample=0

No settled prediction was linked to a sportsbook snapshot.

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "No settled prediction was linked to a sportsbook snapshot.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "sportsbook",
    "selection_odds",
    "settled_profit"
  ],
  "books": []
}

Which confidence ranges underperform?

insufficient_sample sample=13

Range	Sample Size	Hits	Misses	Accuracy
[0.000, 0.525)	5	2	3	0.4
[0.525, 0.550)	3	2	1	0.6667
[0.550, 0.600)	2	2	0	1.0
[0.600, 1.010)	3	1	2	0.3333

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 13,
  "minimum_recommended_sample": 20,
  "worst_observed_range": {
    "range": "[0.600, 1.010)",
    "sample_size": 3,
    "hits": 1,
    "misses": 2,
    "accuracy": 0.3333
  },
  "ranges": [
    {
      "range": "[0.000, 0.525)",
      "sample_size": 5,
      "hits": 2,
      "misses": 3,
      "accuracy": 0.4
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.525, 0.550)",
      "sample_size": 3,
      "hits": 2,
      "misses": 1,
      "accuracy": 0.6667
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.550, 0.600)",
      "sample_size": 2,
      "hits": 2,
      "misses": 0,
      "accuracy": 1.0
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.600, 1.010)",
      "sample_size": 3,
      "hits": 1,
      "misses": 2,
      "accuracy": 0.3333
    }
  ]
}

Which monitored features are drifting?

insufficient_sample sample=14

Three slates are descriptive only and cannot establish statistical feature drift.

Date	Sample Size	Mean Confidence	Mean Predicted Total	Accuracy
20260926	14	0.5534	9.4286	0.5385

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 14,
  "minimum_baseline_sample": 30,
  "minimum_recent_sample": 20,
  "reason": "Three slates are descriptive only and cannot establish statistical feature drift.",
  "daily_monitors": [
    {
      "date": "20260926",
      "sample_size": 14,
      "mean_confidence": 0.5534,
      "mean_predicted_total": 9.4286,
      "accuracy": 0.5385
    }
  ],
  "features_monitored": [
    "confidence",
    "predicted_total",
    "winner_accuracy"
  ]
}

Which model version introduced errors?

insufficient_sample sample=13

Version error claims require at least 30 settled predictions per version.

Pipeline Version	Model Schema Version	Policy Version	Sample Size	Hits	Misses	Accuracy
enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	historical_game_temporal_v11	model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3	13	7	6	0.5385

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 13,
  "minimum_sample_per_version": 30,
  "versions": [
    {
      "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "sample_size": 13,
      "hits": 7,
      "misses": 6,
      "accuracy": 0.5385
    }
  ],
  "reason": "Version error claims require at least 30 settled predictions per version."
}

Game processing context

How each game moved from the historical model through confidence calibration, H2H and recent-form signals, score distribution and simulation policy. Postgame learning is added only after the official result settles.

20260926_ARI@SD

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickARI

Published scoreARI 5 - 4 SD

Final confidence53.4%

Calibrationraw 51.0% → blended 54.1%

Empirical signalhit rate 57.2% · weight 50.0% · n=465

H2H base featurehome net -8.0 · absolute 8.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.0525

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.744599255176404-3.698830451855655	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "ARI",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": -0.06849,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.534245,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.465755,
    "away_win_probability": 0.534245
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.06849,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "ARI wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "ARI 5 - 4 SD",
    "confidence": 0.5342450550000001,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5101,
    "sample_size": 465,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.572,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.54105,
    "published_confidence": 0.534245,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -8.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 8.0,
    "home_average_margin": -1.6,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0462,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0462,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -7.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -6.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.1281,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.088,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.0525
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.01803379593889277
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.01794868054256858
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.017932666842347355
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.017848028752252068
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.01635724048447301
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04858614807884196,
      "1": 0.07341661896536385,
      "2": 0.09991834810806084,
      "3": 0.12247996831960009,
      "4": 0.13522401909828316,
      "5": 0.13446571602504295,
      "6": 0.12043098886620138,
      "7": 0.09714800590381996,
      "8": 0.07058273508043446,
      "9": 0.04618830559300412,
      "10": 0.02722290906232822,
      "11": 0.014451269121562924,
      "12": 0.006909496478844359,
      "13": 0.0029754712986116774
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04682123222894069,
      "1": 0.07083116823872887,
      "2": 0.09673290600384894,
      "3": 0.1192593201479422,
      "4": 0.13273293208008533,
      "5": 0.13336237200423318,
      "6": 0.12096401655229817,
      "7": 0.09904837411213087,
      "8": 0.07321612962906868,
      "9": 0.04885786083663063,
      "10": 0.029432719623925963,
      "11": 0.016006434543198576,
      "12": 0.007858272359860361,
      "13": 0.003482794222376331,
      "14": 0.0013934674167312153
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "ARI 5 - 4 SD",
      "winner": "ARI"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "ARI 5 - 4 SD",
      "winner": "ARI"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.018,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.158,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "ARI",
      "model_winner": "ARI",
      "simulation_winner": "ARI",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 5,
        "published_winner": "ARI",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.8,
        "draw_majority_team": "ARI",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
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        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
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      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
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    "display_confidence": 0.5342,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5715,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5342,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
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      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.088,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.018,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.8,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.2,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
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      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 6,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 9,
        "range": 3
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
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      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-27T00:40:00+00:00",
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          "run_differential_per_game": 0.10625,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 0.1,
        "win_pct_edge": 0.0188,
        "quality_edge": 0.0525,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.1281,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": 0.1281,
          "recent_quality_edge": -0.088,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "conflict",
          "blended_quality_edge": 0.0525
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 0.0,
        "reason": "season quality edge below action threshold"
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
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        "home_distribution": {
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        "away_distribution": {
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        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
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        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
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    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.744599255176404,
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      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260926_ATL@MIA

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickATL

Published scoreATL 5 - 4 MIA

Final confidence53.0%

Calibrationraw 50.0% → blended 53.5%

Empirical signalhit rate 56.9% · weight 50.0% · n=353

H2H base featurehome net -16.0 · absolute 16.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.5032

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	5.388008272341073-3.7424839941122015	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "ATL",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": -0.06,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.47,
    "away_win_probability": 0.53
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.06,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "ATL wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "ATL 5 - 4 MIA",
    "confidence": 0.53,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5005,
    "sample_size": 353,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5694,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.53495,
    "published_confidence": 0.53,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -16.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 16.0,
    "home_average_margin": -3.2,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0923,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0923,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -8.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -6.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.8,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.048,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.5032
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  "score_distribution": {
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        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.0210531712486435
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      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.020008616064416312
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      {
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      {
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    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05823460361004147,
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      "3": 0.13848765480051034,
      "4": 0.14611824052216066,
      "5": 0.13706908204392818,
      "6": 0.1143184353264038,
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    "away_distribution": {
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      "3": 0.13518049322142892,
      "4": 0.14408311497188145,
      "5": 0.1369344169004126,
      "6": 0.11604130653491891,
      "7": 0.0876825292035473,
      "8": 0.05907639593774414,
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      "11": 0.009080704784192891,
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    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
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  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "ATL 5 - 4 MIA",
      "winner": "ATL"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "ATL 5 - 4 MIA",
      "winner": "ATL"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0103,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.162,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
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      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "ATL",
      "model_winner": "ATL",
      "simulation_winner": "ATL",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 5,
        "published_winner": "ATL",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6,
        "draw_majority_team": "ATL",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
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      },
      "simulation_score": {
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    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
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      "score_reviewed": {
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        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "ATL",
    "display_confidence": 0.53,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5586,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.5032,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.048,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0103,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.6,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.6,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.2,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.4,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 4,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 11,
        "range": 7
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    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
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        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
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  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
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    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
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    "evaluation_modes": [
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    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
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      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-26T20:10:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "away",
      "home_win_probability": 0.429694,
      "confidence": 0.570306,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "total_runs": 8
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      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
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        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
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  "score_evolution": [
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      "home_runs": 4,
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    },
    {
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      "home_runs": 4,
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    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
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    }
  ]
}

20260926_CHC@BOS

Official result pending · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Official result pending

PickBOS

Published scoreCHC 4 - 5 BOS

Final confidence53.9%

Calibrationraw 56.5% → blended 56.1%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.6% · weight 50.0% · n=773

H2H base featureNot available for this matchup · n=0

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.4141

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.067047162434268-4.372164234874095	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
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  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "BOS",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.078322,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.539161,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.539161,
    "away_win_probability": 0.460839
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.078322,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "BOS wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "CHC 4 - 5 BOS",
    "confidence": 0.5391612,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
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    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.565085,
    "sample_size": 773,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5563,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.560693,
    "published_confidence": 0.539161,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": false,
    "sample_size": 0,
    "home_net_margin": 0.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.4497,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.348,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.4141
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  "score_distribution": {
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      {
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        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.021877714980082407
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        "away_runs": 3,
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      },
      {
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        "probability": 0.020360419707339754
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    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.054409100278046324,
      "1": 0.08189766519653537,
      "2": 0.1101733570655604,
      "3": 0.13246060397059425,
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      "10": 0.020696655477235985,
      "11": 0.010128636959237849,
      "12": 0.00443003263407748
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06869927251059584,
      "1": 0.10240223942495302,
      "2": 0.13377856585292025,
      "3": 0.15317341070585935,
      "4": 0.15370924710459338,
      "5": 0.1351874490738366,
      "6": 0.10420594982001857,
      "7": 0.07039931367072035,
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      "10": 0.009838179540524307,
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      "12": 0.0013700753420151355
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    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "CHC 4 - 5 BOS",
      "winner": "BOS"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "CHC 4 - 5 BOS",
      "winner": "BOS"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.058,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.348,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
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    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
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      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "BOS",
      "model_winner": "BOS",
      "simulation_winner": "BOS",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 5,
        "published_winner": "BOS",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.4,
        "draw_majority_team": "CHC",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
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        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
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      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
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  },
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    "internal_signal_score": 0.5098,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
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    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
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      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.058,
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      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
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      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 5,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 10,
        "range": 5
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    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
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          "runs_scored": 841,
          "runs_allowed": 695,
          "run_differential": 146,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.9182389937106918,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": -0.4214,
        "win_pct_edge": -0.0189,
        "quality_edge": -0.4141,
        "season_quality_edge": -0.4497,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": -0.4497,
          "recent_quality_edge": -0.348,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": -0.4141
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 0.0,
        "reason": "season quality edge below action threshold"
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 4,
            "probability": 0.021877714980082407
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          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 3,
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          {
            "home_runs": 5,
            "away_runs": 4,
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          },
          {
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          {
            "home_runs": 3,
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        ],
        "home_distribution": {
          "0": 0.054409100278046324,
          "1": 0.08189766519653537,
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          "3": 0.13246060397059425,
          "4": 0.14233180756649885,
          "5": 0.13668544923137887,
          "6": 0.1173134184218084,
          "7": 0.08998667010005955,
          "8": 0.06168985628445198,
          "9": 0.0377967468145148,
          "10": 0.020696655477235985,
          "11": 0.010128636959237849,
          "12": 0.00443003263407748
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        "away_distribution": {
          "0": 0.06869927251059584,
          "1": 0.10240223942495302,
          "2": 0.13377856585292025,
          "3": 0.15317341070585935,
          "4": 0.15370924710459338,
          "5": 0.1351874490738366,
          "6": 0.10420594982001857,
          "7": 0.07039931367072035,
          "8": 0.04168349246581549,
          "9": 0.021631146512603932,
          "10": 0.009838179540524307,
          "11": 0.00392165797554387,
          "12": 0.0013700753420151355
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.067047162434268,
      "home_runs": 4.372164234874095,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260926_CIN@TOR

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickTOR

Published scoreCIN 3 - 5 TOR

Final confidence62.0%

Calibrationraw 72.6% → blended 64.4%

Empirical signalhit rate 56.2% · weight 50.0% · n=292

H2H base featurehome net 1.0 · absolute 1.0 · n=1

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.4385

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.250620930043404-5.540654431737932	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-6	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	3-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
Embedded Savant Run Environment	3-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	3-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	3-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	3-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "TOR",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.239046,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.619523,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.619523,
    "away_win_probability": 0.380477
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.239046,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "TOR wins 5-3",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "CIN 3 - 5 TOR",
    "confidence": 0.619523,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.726013,
    "sample_size": 292,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5616,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.643806,
    "published_confidence": 0.619523,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 1,
    "sample_weight": 0.0167,
    "home_net_margin": 1.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 1.0,
    "home_average_margin": 1.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0083,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0083,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.75,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.14,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.4385
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.020778313221030298
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.020315637561909895
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.020113313837719755
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.019665445878565897
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.01949790213356225
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    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04224360983072501,
      "1": 0.06410382227170823,
      "2": 0.08836041917523721,
      "3": 0.11063245460325823,
      "4": 0.12582248777169777,
      "5": 0.12998251219382267,
      "6": 0.12197266808282566,
      "7": 0.10396593418079533,
      "8": 0.0804953022701961,
      "9": 0.056611016066851566,
      "10": 0.03616448649758915,
      "11": 0.020985271625929294,
      "12": 0.011061087449556108,
      "13": 0.0052958051275116425,
      "14": 0.0023031228522962586
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.07413411683702527,
      "1": 0.11009349437321107,
      "2": 0.14223202868901244,
      "3": 0.15985468252872997,
      "4": 0.1562951601644408,
      "5": 0.13294068344667506,
      "6": 0.09836995985917302,
      "7": 0.06332268054698986,
      "8": 0.03546078108393206,
      "9": 0.01727545575863595,
      "10": 0.007321548433805154,
      "11": 0.0026994082783691675
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "CIN 3 - 5 TOR",
      "winner": "TOR"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "CIN 3 - 5 TOR",
      "winner": "TOR"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0898,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.21,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "TOR",
      "model_winner": "TOR",
      "simulation_winner": "TOR",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "TOR",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5,
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.4385,
      "winner": "TOR",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "TOR",
    "display_confidence": 0.6195,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5957,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.6195,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.4385,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.14,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0898,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.5,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 7,
        "median": 9,
        "max": 9,
        "range": 2
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
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      "parent_config_id": "candidate-982561b127534866",
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        "recent.window_games": 10,
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        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
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        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
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        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
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        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
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        "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
        "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
        "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
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        "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
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        "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
        "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
        "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
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        "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
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  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
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    "changes": [
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        "risk_tier": "low",
        "evaluation_mode": "enhanced_shadow"
      }
    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
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    ],
    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-26T18:36:29.488002+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-26T19:07:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.619523,
      "confidence": 0.619523,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "total_runs": 8
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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          "created_at_utc": "2026-09-24T09:06:53.755755+00:00",
          "parameters": {
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            "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
            "confidence.base_cap": 0.56,
            "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
            "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
            "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
            "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
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            "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
            "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
            "confidence.floor": 0.505,
            "score.variance_multiplier": 2.15,
            "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
            "recent.window_games": 10,
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            "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
            "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
            "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
            "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
            "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
            "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
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        "away": {
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    },
    {
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    },
    {
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    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260926_CLE@KC

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickCLE

Published scoreCLE 6 - 5 KC

Final confidence56.0%

Calibrationraw 70.5% → blended 63.6%

Empirical signalhit rate 56.7% · weight 50.0% · n=616

H2H base featurehome net -8.0 · absolute 8.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.9447

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	5.049366601993854-4.670300834293231	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	6-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	6-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	6-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	6-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	6-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "CLE",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": -0.12,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.56,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.44,
    "away_win_probability": 0.56
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.12,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "CLE wins 6-5",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "CLE 6 - 5 KC",
    "confidence": 0.56,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
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    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.70523,
    "sample_size": 616,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5666,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.635915,
    "published_confidence": 0.56,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -8.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 8.0,
    "home_average_margin": -1.6,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0462,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0462,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -10.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.9062,
    "recent_quality_edge": -1.016,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.9447
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  "score_distribution": {
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      {
        "home_runs": 5,
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        "probability": 0.01489839592462102
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.014540261388299775
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      {
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        "probability": 0.014510453280705873
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        "probability": 0.01418269176349365
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    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04359102554784401,
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      "2": 0.09084727251416246,
      "3": 0.1132294117583556,
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      "5": 0.13110941406729565,
      "6": 0.12180388594618137,
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      "10": 0.03406982570659096,
      "11": 0.01939532352751463,
      "12": 0.010011153367146272,
      "13": 0.004685232754657416,
      "14": 0.001988099869259802
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    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.027203818102535974,
      "1": 0.041706870744147986,
      "2": 0.05928515648082174,
      "3": 0.07813488110103692,
      "4": 0.0954782744192245,
      "5": 0.1081744729345978,
      "6": 0.11363330414224865,
      "7": 0.11067438127103496,
      "8": 0.09994226580323683,
      "9": 0.08367811729284656,
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      "12": 0.031200657893066492,
      "13": 0.019304961656551062,
      "14": 0.01107477102547963,
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      "16": 0.0029050140868287903
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "CLE 6 - 5 KC",
      "winner": "CLE"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "CLE 6 - 5 KC",
      "winner": "CLE"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0587,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -1.086,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
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    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
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    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
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      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "CLE",
      "model_winner": "CLE",
      "simulation_winner": "CLE",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
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        "draw_count": 3,
        "published_winner": "CLE",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.3333,
        "draw_majority_team": "KC",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
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      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 5
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    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
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      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
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      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
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  },
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    "internal_signal_score": 0.5762,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
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    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
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      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0587,
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      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.3333,
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        "min": 7,
        "median": 11,
        "max": 15,
        "range": 8
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    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
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          "runs_allowed": 797,
          "run_differential": -115,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.71875,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "CLE",
          "games": 160,
          "wins": 84,
          "losses": 76,
          "win_pct": 0.525,
          "runs_scored": 665,
          "runs_allowed": 659,
          "run_differential": 6,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.0375,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": -0.7562,
        "win_pct_edge": -0.1,
        "quality_edge": -0.9447,
        "season_quality_edge": -0.9062,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": -0.9062,
          "recent_quality_edge": -1.016,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": -0.9447
        },
        "margin_adjustment": -0.3968,
        "reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
          "adjustment": -0.3968,
          "cap": 1.4,
          "scale": 0.42,
          "quality_edge": -0.9447,
          "season_quality_edge": -0.9062,
          "recent_alignment": "aligned",
          "large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": false,
          "method": "standard_bounded_season_recent_adjustment"
        },
        "adjusted_score": {
          "away_runs": 6.143,
          "home_runs": 4.024,
          "home_win_probability": 0.3199
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      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
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            "away_runs": 6,
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          {
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        ],
        "home_distribution": {
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        "away_distribution": {
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        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 5.049366601993854,
      "home_runs": 4.670300834293231,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260926_COL@CHW

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickCHW

Published scoreCOL 4 - 9 CHW

Final confidence69.8%

Calibrationraw 92.0% → blended 86.9%

Empirical signalhit rate 61.8% · weight 17.0% · n=34

H2H base featurehome net 5.0 · absolute 5.0 · n=1

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 1.5269

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.036785779737624-5.172559518600801	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-8	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-9	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-9	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-9	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-9	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "CHW",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 9,
    "confidence": 0.395538,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.697769,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.697769,
    "away_win_probability": 0.302231
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.395538,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "CHW wins 9-4 (Extra Innings - 11)",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 9
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 9,
    "predicted_score_text": "COL 4 - 9 CHW",
    "confidence": 0.697769,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.92,
    "sample_size": 34,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.6176,
    "empirical_weight": 0.17,
    "blended_confidence": 0.868592,
    "published_confidence": 0.697769,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 1,
    "sample_weight": 0.0167,
    "home_net_margin": 5.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 5.0,
    "home_average_margin": 5.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0417,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0417,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 1.8063,
    "recent_quality_edge": 1.008,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 1.5269
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  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 8,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.015168834596376734
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 8,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.014983907785142754
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 7,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.014861882145506478
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 7,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.014680697463410981
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 9,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.014590877602594808
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.016040265683499547,
      "1": 0.024793303050629482,
      "2": 0.03611669620674972,
      "3": 0.04958295881930362,
      "4": 0.06415162450466746,
      "5": 0.07822285689703878,
      "6": 0.08988981452878998,
      "7": 0.09735047863980041,
      "8": 0.09936112357153364,
      "9": 0.09557530496343074,
      "10": 0.08664144502830254,
      "11": 0.074021260667543,
      "12": 0.05959887522992751,
      "13": 0.04522415343078239,
      "14": 0.032341013374538256,
      "15": 0.021796541965763416,
      "16": 0.013844343551605793,
      "17": 0.008287202168815065,
      "18": 0.0046751364993504714,
      "19": 0.002485601217928002
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06687720644363025,
      "1": 0.09981131989150051,
      "2": 0.13088502391847667,
      "3": 0.15080251960270258,
      "4": 0.15266367821873658,
      "5": 0.13579110708290734,
      "6": 0.10612444188854266,
      "7": 0.07287322549364426,
      "8": 0.04396722429039417,
      "9": 0.023307655388322277,
      "10": 0.010856169381336924,
      "11": 0.004442864991062478,
      "12": 0.0015975634087433037
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    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 9,
      "score_text": "COL 4 - 9 CHW",
      "winner": "CHW"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 9,
      "score_text": "COL 4 - 9 CHW",
      "winner": "CHW"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0845,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 1.358,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 9,
      "winner": "CHW",
      "model_winner": "CHW",
      "simulation_winner": "CHW",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 5,
        "published_winner": "CHW",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "CHW",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 5,
      "simulation_margin": 5,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 9
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 9
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 5,
      "final_margin": 5,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.5269,
      "winner": "CHW",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 9,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "CHW",
    "display_confidence": 0.6978,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.72,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.6978,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 5,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.5269,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 1.008,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0845,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.2,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.2,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 6,
        "median": 8,
        "max": 13,
        "range": 7
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
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      "parent_config_id": "candidate-982561b127534866",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-24T09:06:53.755755+00:00",
      "parameters": {
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        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
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        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
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        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
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        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
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        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
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        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
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        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
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        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
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        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
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        "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
        "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
        "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
        "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
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  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
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    "changes": [
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        "parameter": "confidence.base_cap",
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        "new_value": 0.56,
        "risk_tier": "low",
        "evaluation_mode": "enhanced_shadow"
      }
    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
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    ],
    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-26T22:36:35.069730+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-26T23:10:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.697769,
      "confidence": 0.697769,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 8,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "total_runs": 11
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
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        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
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    {
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    },
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      "home_runs": 9,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 9,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 9,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 9,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260926_HOU@OAK

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickHOU

Published scoreHOU 6 - 5 OAK

Final confidence52.3%

Calibrationraw 53.9% → blended 54.8%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.8% · weight 50.0% · n=787

H2H base featurehome net -3.0 · absolute 3.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.8708

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	5.36869333276001-4.6431565622053395	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	6-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	6-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	6-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	6-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	6-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "HOU",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": -0.04579,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.522895,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.477105,
    "away_win_probability": 0.522895
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.04579,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "HOU wins 6-5",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "HOU 6 - 5 OAK",
    "confidence": 0.52289458,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.538659,
    "sample_size": 787,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5578,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.54823,
    "published_confidence": 0.522895,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -3.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 3.0,
    "home_average_margin": -0.6,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0173,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0173,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -1.1781,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.3,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.8708
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.015880305020020583
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.01541952807832275
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.015269921787645196
      },
      {
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        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.015068122664044503
      },
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    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
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        "applied": true,
        "policy": "align_to_calibrated_probability_v2",
        "raw_confidence": 0.53,
        "final_confidence": 0.5355,
        "calibrated_pick_probability": 0.5355,
        "shrinkage_weight": 0.985466,
        "hard_maximum": 0.9,
        "confidence_floor": 0.505,
        "score_gap": 0.1,
        "calibration_sample_size": 787,
        "calibration_empirical_hit_rate": 0.5578,
        "calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.5565,
        "calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.8708,
        "reasons": [
          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability"
        ],
        "score_coherence": {
          "policy": "probability_follows_published_score_v1",
          "published_score": {
            "away_runs": 6,
            "home_runs": 5
          },
          "margin": -1,
          "probability_before": 0.464462,
          "margin_implied_home_probability": 0.425967,
          "shrinkage_weight": 0.985466,
          "side_flipped": false,
          "applied": false,
          "magnitude_pull_suppressed": true,
          "probability_after": 0.464462,
          "aligned_pick_probability": 0.535538
        },
        "starter_experience": {
          "applied": true,
          "min_starter_games": 10,
          "per_starter_career_games": {
            "678022": 36,
            "669713": 10
          },
          "shrink_factor": 0.8917,
          "probability_before": 0.464462,
          "probability_after": 0.468312,
          "reason": "inexperienced starter (debut/thin history): confidence shrunk toward 0.5 by career-games factor; winner unchanged"
        }
      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
        "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
        "available": true,
        "sample_size": 5,
        "sample_weight": 0.0577,
        "home_net_margin": -3.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 3.0,
        "home_average_margin": -0.6,
        "home_run_delta": -0.0173,
        "away_run_delta": 0.0173,
        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": 1.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": -2.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 1.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 1.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": -4.0
          }
        ],
        "adaptive_parameters": {
          "h2h.history_limit": 5,
          "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
          "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
          "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
        }
      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "home": {
          "team": "OAK",
          "games": 160,
          "wins": 64,
          "losses": 96,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "runs_scored": 697,
          "runs_allowed": 915,
          "run_differential": -218,
          "run_differential_per_game": -1.3625,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "HOU",
          "games": 160,
          "wins": 79,
          "losses": 81,
          "win_pct": 0.49375,
          "runs_scored": 712,
          "runs_allowed": 764,
          "run_differential": -52,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.325,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": -1.0375,
        "win_pct_edge": -0.0938,
        "quality_edge": -0.8708,
        "season_quality_edge": -1.1781,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": -1.1781,
          "recent_quality_edge": -0.3,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": -0.8708
        },
        "margin_adjustment": -0.3657,
        "reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
          "adjustment": -0.3657,
          "cap": 1.4,
          "scale": 0.42,
          "quality_edge": -0.8708,
          "season_quality_edge": -1.1781,
          "recent_alignment": "aligned",
          "large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": false,
          "method": "standard_bounded_season_recent_adjustment"
        },
        "adjusted_score": {
          "away_runs": 6.409,
          "home_runs": 3.836,
          "home_win_probability": 0.2812
        }
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
            "home_runs": 5,
            "away_runs": 5,
            "probability": 0.015880305020020583
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 5,
            "away_runs": 6,
            "probability": 0.01541952807832275
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 6,
            "away_runs": 5,
            "probability": 0.015269921787645196
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 5,
            "probability": 0.015068122664044503
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 5,
            "away_runs": 4,
            "probability": 0.01494840117513054
          }
        ],
        "home_distribution": {
          "0": 0.03897322171158254,
          "1": 0.05927245034460548,
          "2": 0.0822465585456707,
          "3": 0.10412640341850654,
          "4": 0.12027691516691238,
          "5": 0.12675992506189404,
          "6": 0.12188771809248154,
          "7": 0.10693409521488689,
          "8": 0.08559546028280388,
          "9": 0.06251202161333529,
          "10": 0.04165380084864542,
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          "12": 0.014046614395148028,
          "13": 0.007108821220311337,
          "14": 0.0032824778490586812
        },
        "away_distribution": {
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          "1": 0.057346823591476276,
          "2": 0.07978642786349215,
          "3": 0.10146045900082837,
          "4": 0.11792686977237932,
          "5": 0.12527859268034897,
          "6": 0.12164355628006042,
          "7": 0.10795667440956991,
          "8": 0.0875705412781383,
          "9": 0.06492541250038604,
          "10": 0.043996643767718065,
          "11": 0.027250377672528595,
          "12": 0.015426721894556397,
          "13": 0.007982205824466336,
          "14": 0.0037750294222101
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 5.36869333276001,
      "home_runs": 4.6431565622053395,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260926_LAA@SEA

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickSEA

Published scoreLAA 4 - 5 SEA

Final confidence51.8%

Calibrationraw 51.0% → blended 53.4%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.9% · weight 50.0% · n=707

H2H base featurehome net -2.0 · absolute 2.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.1596

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.970083822206354-4.698974425802275	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "SEA",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.036042,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.518021,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.518021,
    "away_win_probability": 0.481979
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.036042,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "SEA wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "LAA 4 - 5 SEA",
    "confidence": 0.5180213175,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5101,
    "sample_size": 707,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5587,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.5344,
    "published_confidence": 0.518021,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -2.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 2.0,
    "home_average_margin": -0.4,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0115,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0115,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.2563,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.02,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.1596
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02257426120080997
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02204728932326133
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02179176748277193
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02128306208048449
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02068228589014084
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.062078206866095276,
      "1": 0.09295409953075344,
      "2": 0.12310107178245816,
      "3": 0.1441846481274884,
      "4": 0.1493619969353114,
      "5": 0.13684379277172584,
      "6": 0.11088530504611514,
      "7": 0.07946699491040504,
      "8": 0.05036901831890688,
      "9": 0.028236059264682093,
      "10": 0.013999372986092403,
      "11": 0.006138708147383689,
      "12": 0.0023807253125822875
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06451258961215141,
      "1": 0.09643853633014901,
      "2": 0.12707910531298816,
      "3": 0.1476097653729817,
      "4": 0.1511379177033022,
      "5": 0.1364109338774332,
      "6": 0.10852813326401499,
      "7": 0.07611195670364757,
      "8": 0.04705229857554568,
      "9": 0.025640483158079163,
      "10": 0.012316546990002083,
      "11": 0.005215177985768744,
      "12": 0.0019465551139359906
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "LAA 4 - 5 SEA",
      "winner": "SEA"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "LAA 4 - 5 SEA",
      "winner": "SEA"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0737,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.23,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "SEA",
      "model_winner": "SEA",
      "simulation_winner": "SEA",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 3,
        "published_winner": "SEA",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "SEA",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.1596,
      "winner": "SEA",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "SEA",
    "display_confidence": 0.518,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6152,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.518,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.1596,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.02,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0737,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.3333,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 5,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 8,
        "range": 3
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-c1d5650d9262b3dc",
      "config_hash": "sha256:da7e1fc0092c8fca4370044eb58fa5897f6ef528f3b1de083f3bc7a60a53c065",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-982561b127534866",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-24T09:06:53.755755+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 2.15,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
        "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
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    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
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      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260926_LAD@SF

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickLAD

Published scoreLAD 4 - 2 SF

Final confidence55.3%

Calibrationraw 61.9% → blended 58.9%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.8% · weight 50.0% · n=292

H2H base featurehome net -19.0 · absolute 19.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -1.6407

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	5.062260245426705-2.9268043622670565	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-3	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-3	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-2	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-2	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-2	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-2	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "LAD",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 2,
    "confidence": -0.106948,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.553474,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.446526,
    "away_win_probability": 0.553474
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.106948,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "LAD wins 4-2",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 2
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 2,
    "predicted_score_text": "LAD 4 - 2 SF",
    "confidence": 0.5534743499999999,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.619065,
    "sample_size": 292,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5582,
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            "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
            "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
            "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
            "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
            "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
            "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
            "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
            "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
            "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
            "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
            "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
            "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
            "context.lineup_context_min": 0.8,
            "context.lineup_context_weight": 1.0,
            "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
            "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
            "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
            "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
            "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
            "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
            "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
            "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
            "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "diagnostics": {
      "confidence_calibration": {
        "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
        "applied": true,
        "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
        "raw_confidence": 0.619065,
        "sample_size": 292,
        "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5582,
        "empirical_weight": 0.5,
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      "confidence_governor": {
        "applied": true,
        "policy": "align_to_calibrated_probability_v2",
        "raw_confidence": 0.58,
        "final_confidence": 0.5985,
        "calibrated_pick_probability": 0.5985,
        "shrinkage_weight": 0.962258,
        "hard_maximum": 0.9,
        "confidence_floor": 0.505,
        "score_gap": 0.8,
        "calibration_sample_size": 292,
        "calibration_empirical_hit_rate": 0.5582,
        "calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.5548,
        "calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
        "season_quality_edge": 1.6407,
        "reasons": [
          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability",
          "season run-differential edge supports the pick"
        ],
        "score_coherence": {
          "policy": "probability_follows_published_score_v1",
          "published_score": {
            "away_runs": 4,
            "home_runs": 3
          },
          "margin": -1,
          "probability_before": 0.401477,
          "margin_implied_home_probability": 0.425967,
          "shrinkage_weight": 0.962258,
          "side_flipped": false,
          "applied": true,
          "probability_after": 0.413722,
          "aligned_pick_probability": 0.586278
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        "starter_experience": {
          "applied": true,
          "min_starter_games": 7,
          "per_starter_career_games": {
            "683363": 7,
            "605483": 8
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          "shrink_factor": 0.7292,
          "probability_before": 0.413722,
          "probability_after": 0.437089,
          "reason": "inexperienced starter (debut/thin history): confidence shrunk toward 0.5 by career-games factor; winner unchanged"
        }
      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
        "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
        "available": true,
        "sample_size": 5,
        "sample_weight": 0.0577,
        "home_net_margin": -19.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 19.0,
        "home_average_margin": -3.8,
        "home_run_delta": -0.1096,
        "away_run_delta": 0.1096,
        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": -2.0
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          {
            "home_margin": -2.0
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          {
            "home_margin": -6.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": -6.0
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          {
            "home_margin": -3.0
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        ],
        "adaptive_parameters": {
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      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "home": {
          "team": "SF",
          "games": 160,
          "wins": 65,
          "losses": 95,
          "win_pct": 0.40625,
          "runs_scored": 665,
          "runs_allowed": 751,
          "run_differential": -86,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.5375,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "LAD",
          "games": 160,
          "wins": 98,
          "losses": 62,
          "win_pct": 0.6125,
          "runs_scored": 792,
          "runs_allowed": 596,
          "run_differential": 196,
          "run_differential_per_game": 1.225,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": -1.7625,
        "win_pct_edge": -0.2063,
        "quality_edge": -1.6407,
        "season_quality_edge": -2.0719,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": -2.0719,
          "recent_quality_edge": -0.84,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": -1.6407
        },
        "margin_adjustment": -2.6251,
        "reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
          "adjustment": -2.6251,
          "cap": 4.0,
          "scale": 1.6,
          "quality_edge": -1.6407,
          "season_quality_edge": -2.0719,
          "recent_alignment": "aligned",
          "large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": true,
          "method": "supported_large_edge_up_to_four_runs"
        },
        "adjusted_score": {
          "away_runs": 6.299,
          "home_runs": 0.0,
          "home_win_probability": 0.08
        }
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
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        ],
        "home_distribution": {
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          "12": 0.0014435488584206692
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        "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
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      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 5.062260245426705,
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      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260926_NYM@WAS

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickWAS

Published scoreNYM 6 - 7 WAS

Final confidence50.6%

Calibrationraw 46.8% → blended 50.5%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.2% · weight 50.0% · n=535

H2H base featurehome net -5.0 · absolute 5.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.3536

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	5.15397140694852-4.710165821447881	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-6	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	6-6	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	6-7	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	6-7	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	6-7	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "WAS",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 7,
    "confidence": 0.012882,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.506441,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.506441,
    "away_win_probability": 0.493559
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.012882,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "WAS wins 7-6",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 7
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 7,
    "predicted_score_text": "NYM 6 - 7 WAS",
    "confidence": 0.5064410875,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.468452,
    "sample_size": 535,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5421,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.505276,
    "published_confidence": 0.506441,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -5.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 5.0,
    "home_average_margin": -1.0,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0288,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0288,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.3156,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.424,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.3536
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.017648647162557214
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.017647250177868265
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.017332425728731476
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.017331053774658035
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.01627121860575567
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04462036389899704,
      "1": 0.06760188945516278,
      "2": 0.09273446007802161,
      "3": 0.1151807885520235,
      "4": 0.1295315414436107,
      "5": 0.13189477959630952,
      "6": 0.12160075341766621,
      "7": 0.10150828995386697,
      "8": 0.0767226056418621,
      "9": 0.05250513297075402,
      "10": 0.03253394798725963,
      "11": 0.018252752285204135,
      "12": 0.00927206651014738,
      "13": 0.004264629464254882,
      "14": 0.00177599874485938
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04758884166953851,
      "1": 0.07195520718178232,
      "2": 0.09811573080238492,
      "3": 0.1206519593227498,
      "4": 0.13379794281381888,
      "5": 0.13380853447402882,
      "6": 0.12068061460010866,
      "7": 0.09815457194612387,
      "8": 0.0719950892811674,
      "9": 0.04762275729015756,
      "10": 0.028408317954862563,
      "11": 0.015282549965377363,
      "12": 0.0074142196773282956,
      "13": 0.0032438024390931226,
      "14": 0.0012798605814779713
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "score_text": "NYM 6 - 7 WAS",
      "winner": "WAS"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "score_text": "NYM 6 - 7 WAS",
      "winner": "WAS"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.017,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.214,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "winner": "WAS",
      "model_winner": "WAS",
      "simulation_winner": "WAS",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 6,
        "published_winner": "WAS",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667,
        "draw_majority_team": "WAS",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 7
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 7
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.3536,
      "winner": "WAS",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 7,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "WAS",
    "display_confidence": 0.5064,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5809,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5064,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.3536,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.424,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.017,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.6667,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.3333,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.1667,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.3333,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 3,
        "median": 10,
        "max": 12,
        "range": 9
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-c1d5650d9262b3dc",
      "config_hash": "sha256:da7e1fc0092c8fca4370044eb58fa5897f6ef528f3b1de083f3bc7a60a53c065",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-982561b127534866",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-24T09:06:53.755755+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 2.15,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
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  ]
}

20260926_PIT@DET

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickPIT

Published scorePIT 6 - 4 DET

Final confidence51.3%

Calibrationraw 49.0% → blended 52.6%

Empirical signalhit rate 56.2% · weight 50.0% · n=697

H2H base featurehome net 0.0 · absolute 0.0 · n=4

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.0805

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.781460179053906-2.7092315440183827	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-3	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	6-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	6-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	6-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	6-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "PIT",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": -0.026674,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.513337,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.486663,
    "away_win_probability": 0.513337
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.026674,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "PIT wins 6-4",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "PIT 6 - 4 DET",
    "confidence": 0.51333735,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.489827,
    "sample_size": 697,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5624,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.526114,
    "published_confidence": 0.513337,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 4,
    "sample_weight": 0.05,
    "home_net_margin": 0.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 0.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.225,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.188,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.0805
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  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.021251732544393952
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.020213408043470524
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.020110016951405126
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02000592405410092
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.019845006453339066
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    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.058977107156862565,
      "1": 0.08849769353490979,
      "2": 0.1179458167108024,
      "3": 0.13961601443502344,
      "4": 0.14678782476000188,
      "5": 0.13707142810821182,
      "6": 0.11368572736156705,
      "7": 0.08374657530301198,
      "8": 0.05479365513496946,
      "9": 0.031841652036134045,
      "10": 0.01643474675969841,
      "11": 0.007534120209021072,
      "12": 0.0030676384897860972
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    "away_distribution": {
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      "1": 0.08537765794637749,
      "2": 0.11429183999327426,
      "3": 0.13629144029357074,
      "4": 0.14477857805400782,
      "5": 0.13700057878972596,
      "6": 0.11548427872411408,
      "7": 0.08671729050008867,
      "8": 0.05800573077944998,
      "9": 0.03456356053841957,
      "10": 0.018346296834493053,
      "11": 0.008674825080990099,
      "12": 0.0036538894733838334
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "PIT 6 - 4 DET",
      "winner": "PIT"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "PIT 6 - 4 DET",
      "winner": "PIT"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0004,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.188,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
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      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "PIT",
      "model_winner": "PIT",
      "simulation_winner": "PIT",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 4,
        "published_winner": "PIT",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "PIT",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.0805,
      "winner": "PIT",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "PIT",
    "display_confidence": 0.5133,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5935,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5133,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.0805,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.188,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0004,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.25,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.5,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.5,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 6,
        "median": 11,
        "max": 13,
        "range": 7
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
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        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
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        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
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        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
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        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
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        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
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        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
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        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
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  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
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    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
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    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
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    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-26T16:36:26.605275+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-26T17:10:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "away",
      "home_win_probability": 0.484309,
      "confidence": 0.515691,
      "predicted_score": {
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            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
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    },
    "candidate_prediction": {
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      "confidence": 0.515691,
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            "recent.window_games": 10,
            "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
            "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
            "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
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            "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
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            "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
            "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
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            "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
            "simulation.allow_score": true,
            "player.model_weight": 0.5,
            "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
            "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
            "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
            "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
            "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
            "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
            "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
            "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
            "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
            "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
            "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
            "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
            "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
            "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
            "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
            "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
            "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
            "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
            "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
            "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
            "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
            "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
            "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
            "context.lineup_context_min": 0.8,
            "context.lineup_context_weight": 1.0,
            "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
            "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
            "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
            "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
            "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
            "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
            "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
            "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
            "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
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        }
      }
    },
    "diagnostics": {
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        "applied": true,
        "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
        "raw_confidence": 0.489827,
        "sample_size": 697,
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        "empirical_weight": 0.5,
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      "confidence_governor": {
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        "policy": "align_to_calibrated_probability_v2",
        "raw_confidence": 0.526114,
        "final_confidence": 0.5388,
        "calibrated_pick_probability": 0.5388,
        "shrinkage_weight": 0.983636,
        "hard_maximum": 0.9,
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        "score_gap": 0.1,
        "calibration_sample_size": 697,
        "calibration_empirical_hit_rate": 0.5624,
        "calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.5608,
        "calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.0805,
        "reasons": [
          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability"
        ],
        "score_coherence": {
          "policy": "probability_follows_published_score_v1",
          "published_score": {
            "away_runs": 5,
            "home_runs": 4
          },
          "margin": -1,
          "probability_before": 0.461177,
          "margin_implied_home_probability": 0.425967,
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          "side_flipped": false,
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          "magnitude_pull_suppressed": true,
          "probability_after": 0.461177,
          "aligned_pick_probability": 0.538823
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        "starter_experience": {
          "applied": true,
          "min_starter_games": 1,
          "per_starter_career_games": {
            "434378": 1,
            "489446": 45
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          "shrink_factor": 0.4042,
          "probability_before": 0.461177,
          "probability_after": 0.484309,
          "reason": "inexperienced starter (debut/thin history): confidence shrunk toward 0.5 by career-games factor; winner unchanged"
        }
      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
        "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
        "available": true,
        "sample_size": 4,
        "sample_weight": 0.05,
        "home_net_margin": 0.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 0.0,
        "home_average_margin": 0.0,
        "home_run_delta": 0.0,
        "away_run_delta": -0.0,
        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": 1.0
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          {
            "home_margin": -1.0
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          {
            "home_margin": -3.0
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          {
            "home_margin": 3.0
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        "adaptive_parameters": {
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      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
        "applied": false,
        "home": {
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          "games": 160,
          "wins": 75,
          "losses": 85,
          "win_pct": 0.46875,
          "runs_scored": 717,
          "runs_allowed": 645,
          "run_differential": 72,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.45,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "PIT",
          "games": 160,
          "wins": 81,
          "losses": 79,
          "win_pct": 0.50625,
          "runs_scored": 760,
          "runs_allowed": 733,
          "run_differential": 27,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.16875,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 0.2812,
        "win_pct_edge": -0.0375,
        "quality_edge": 0.0805,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.225,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": 0.225,
          "recent_quality_edge": -0.188,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "conflict",
          "blended_quality_edge": 0.0805
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 0.0,
        "reason": "season quality edge below action threshold"
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
            "home_runs": 4,
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        ],
        "home_distribution": {
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          "7": 0.08671729050008867,
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          "11": 0.008674825080990099,
          "12": 0.0036538894733838334
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        "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.781460179053906,
      "home_runs": 2.7092315440183827,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260926_STL@MIL

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickMIL

Published scoreSTL 4 - 5 MIL

Final confidence53.5%

Calibrationraw 58.6% → blended 57.4%

Empirical signalhit rate 56.2% · weight 50.0% · n=694

H2H base featurehome net 13.0 · absolute 13.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 1.4507

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.405095592518724-4.73569511007664	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIL",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.070888,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.535444,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.535444,
    "away_win_probability": 0.464556
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.070888,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIL wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "STL 4 - 5 MIL",
    "confidence": 0.5354436825,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5864,
    "sample_size": 694,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.562,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.5742,
    "published_confidence": 0.535444,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 13.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 13.0,
    "home_average_margin": 2.6,
    "home_run_delta": 0.075,
    "away_run_delta": -0.075,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 8.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 1.7063,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.976,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 1.4507
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.020825757469493236
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.020594257526547213
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.020572940634448512
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02034425101343073
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.018944726513292136
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.049498693925751826,
      "1": 0.07474938200880432,
      "2": 0.1015440169876522,
      "3": 0.12408918707072732,
      "4": 0.13641006180312826,
      "5": 0.1348937221659772,
      "6": 0.11999687544342001,
      "7": 0.09602426763953185,
      "8": 0.06912337518274925,
      "9": 0.044761201416735154,
      "10": 0.026074224475584995,
      "11": 0.013663247393895508,
      "12": 0.006440644529857688,
      "13": 0.002731099956184336
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06688807027951396,
      "1": 0.09982678859806086,
      "2": 0.13090237726883464,
      "3": 0.1508168852246405,
      "4": 0.1526702443662088,
      "5": 0.13578782571725037,
      "6": 0.10611316490593604,
      "7": 0.07285841204270513,
      "8": 0.043953365564705485,
      "9": 0.02329735239391861,
      "10": 0.010849831724317935,
      "11": 0.004439575399941329,
      "12": 0.0015961065139661799
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "STL 4 - 5 MIL",
      "winner": "MIL"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "STL 4 - 5 MIL",
      "winner": "MIL"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0046,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 1.186,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "MIL",
      "model_winner": "MIL",
      "simulation_winner": "MIL",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 6,
        "published_winner": "MIL",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667,
        "draw_majority_team": "MIL",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.4507,
      "winner": "MIL",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "MIL",
    "display_confidence": 0.5354,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6523,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5354,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.4507,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.976,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0046,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.6667,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.5,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 1,
        "median": 8,
        "max": 8,
        "range": 7
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-c1d5650d9262b3dc",
      "config_hash": "sha256:da7e1fc0092c8fca4370044eb58fa5897f6ef528f3b1de083f3bc7a60a53c065",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-982561b127534866",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-24T09:06:53.755755+00:00",
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      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.405095592518724,
      "home_runs": 4.73569511007664,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260926_TB@PHI

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickTB

Published scoreTB 4 - 2 PHI

Final confidence60.8%

Calibrationraw 67.2% → blended 62.3%

Empirical signalhit rate 57.4% · weight 50.0% · n=462

H2H base featurehome net -2.0 · absolute 2.0 · n=1

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.4479

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.723224253526409-4.273547417523234	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-2	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-2	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-2	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-2	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-2	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "TB",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 2,
    "confidence": -0.21513,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.607565,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.392435,
    "away_win_probability": 0.607565
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.21513,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "TB wins 4-2",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 2
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 2,
    "predicted_score_text": "TB 4 - 2 PHI",
    "confidence": 0.607565,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.6725,
    "sample_size": 462,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5736,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.62305,
    "published_confidence": 0.607565,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 1,
    "sample_weight": 0.0167,
    "home_net_margin": -2.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 2.0,
    "home_average_margin": -2.0,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0167,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0167,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.45,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.444,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.4479
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.029424694533238965
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02834782369755784
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.028317766465058694
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02728140645107781
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.02706508331709843
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.11654530713558094,
      "1": 0.16782408556570202,
      "2": 0.1976687058579241,
      "3": 0.19043452151576304,
      "4": 0.15006436326796552,
      "5": 0.09672385365511897,
      "6": 0.05099337343507729,
      "7": 0.021989635278576232,
      "8": 0.007756154288291883
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06143683079838174,
      "1": 0.09203403377067901,
      "2": 0.12204290817236979,
      "3": 0.14325872343906731,
      "4": 0.14885863903205898,
      "5": 0.13692143730910886,
      "6": 0.11148419261950991,
      "7": 0.08035253354247618,
      "8": 0.051266101702421074,
      "9": 0.028953792184500678,
      "10": 0.014475215876918569,
      "11": 0.006406031707294634,
      "12": 0.002509559845213063
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "score_text": "TB 4 - 2 PHI",
      "winner": "TB"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "score_text": "TB 4 - 2 PHI",
      "winner": "TB"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0828,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.794,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "winner": "TB",
      "model_winner": "TB",
      "simulation_winner": "TB",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "TB",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "TB",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 2
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 2
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.4479,
      "winner": "TB",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 2,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "TB",
    "display_confidence": 0.6076,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6239,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.6076,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.4479,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.444,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0828,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 1.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 8,
        "median": 8,
        "max": 8,
        "range": 0
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-c1d5650d9262b3dc",
      "config_hash": "sha256:da7e1fc0092c8fca4370044eb58fa5897f6ef528f3b1de083f3bc7a60a53c065",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-982561b127534866",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-24T09:06:53.755755+00:00",
      "parameters": {
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        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
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        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 2.15,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
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        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
        "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
        "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
        "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
        "context.lineup_context_min": 0.8,
        "context.lineup_context_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
        "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
        "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
        "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
        "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
        "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
        "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
      }
    }
  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
      "config_id": "candidate-982561b127534866",
      "config_hash": "sha256:53760a5ddffc6f180dee92a59d27889f1cdba857749a59d2378ee233c5952253",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-f4c3ec3952acc919",
      "parent_config_hash": "sha256:9ca63931a023e9b6f5e0ed6f872bef54d37bd4e9dc951e5e10b28553b15e3582"
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    "changes": [
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        "parameter": "confidence.base_cap",
        "old_value": 0.58,
        "new_value": 0.56,
        "risk_tier": "low",
        "evaluation_mode": "enhanced_shadow"
      }
    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
      "enhanced_shadow"
    ],
    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-26T22:36:35.658982+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-26T23:15:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "away",
      "home_win_probability": 0.392435,
      "confidence": 0.607565,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "total_runs": 6
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
          "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
          "config_id": "candidate-c1d5650d9262b3dc",
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          "parent_config_id": "candidate-982561b127534866",
          "created_at_utc": "2026-09-24T09:06:53.755755+00:00",
          "parameters": {
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            "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
            "confidence.base_cap": 0.56,
            "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
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            "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
            "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
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            "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
            "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
            "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
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            "score.variance_multiplier": 2.15,
            "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
            "recent.window_games": 10,
            "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
            "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
            "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
            "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
            "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
            "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
            "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
            "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
            "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
            "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
            "h2h.history_limit": 5,
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            "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
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            "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
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            "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
            "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
            "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
            "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
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            "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
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            "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
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            "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
            "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
            "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
            "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
            "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
            "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
            "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
            "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
            "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
            "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
            "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
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            "context.lineup_context_min": 0.8,
            "context.lineup_context_weight": 1.0,
            "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
            "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
            "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
            "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
            "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
            "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
            "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
            "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
            "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "candidate_prediction": {
      "predicted_winner": "away",
      "home_win_probability": 0.392435,
      "confidence": 0.607565,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "total_runs": 6
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
          "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
          "config_id": "candidate-982561b127534866",
          "config_hash": "sha256:53760a5ddffc6f180dee92a59d27889f1cdba857749a59d2378ee233c5952253",
          "parent_config_id": "candidate-f4c3ec3952acc919",
          "created_at_utc": "2026-09-21T09:05:52.468019+00:00",
          "parameters": {
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            "confidence.base_cap": 0.58,
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            "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
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            "score.variance_multiplier": 2.15,
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            "recent.window_games": 10,
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            "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
            "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
            "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
            "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
            "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
            "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
            "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
            "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
            "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
            "h2h.history_limit": 5,
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            "simulation.allow_score": true,
            "player.model_weight": 0.5,
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            "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
            "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
            "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
            "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
            "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
            "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
            "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
            "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
            "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
            "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
            "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
            "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
            "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
            "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
            "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
            "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
            "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
            "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
            "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
            "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
            "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
            "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
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            "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
            "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
            "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
            "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
            "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
            "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
            "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
            "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
            "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
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        }
      }
    },
    "diagnostics": {
      "confidence_calibration": {
        "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
        "applied": true,
        "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
        "raw_confidence": 0.6725,
        "sample_size": 462,
        "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5736,
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      "confidence_governor": {
        "applied": true,
        "policy": "align_to_calibrated_probability_v2",
        "raw_confidence": 0.62305,
        "final_confidence": 0.6076,
        "calibrated_pick_probability": 0.6076,
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        "score_gap": 1.5,
        "calibration_sample_size": 462,
        "calibration_empirical_hit_rate": 0.5736,
        "calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.5708,
        "calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.4479,
        "reasons": [
          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability"
        ],
        "score_coherence": {
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          "published_score": {
            "away_runs": 4,
            "home_runs": 2
          },
          "margin": -2,
          "probability_before": 0.392435,
          "margin_implied_home_probability": 0.354461,
          "shrinkage_weight": 0.975625,
          "side_flipped": false,
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          "magnitude_pull_suppressed": true,
          "probability_after": 0.392435,
          "aligned_pick_probability": 0.607565
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        "starter_experience": {
          "applied": false,
          "min_starter_games": 32,
          "shrink_factor": 1.0
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      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
        "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
        "available": true,
        "sample_size": 1,
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        "home_net_margin": -2.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 2.0,
        "home_average_margin": -2.0,
        "home_run_delta": -0.0167,
        "away_run_delta": 0.0167,
        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": -2.0
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        ],
        "adaptive_parameters": {
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      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
        "applied": false,
        "home": {
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          "games": 160,
          "wins": 87,
          "losses": 73,
          "win_pct": 0.54375,
          "runs_scored": 705,
          "runs_allowed": 683,
          "run_differential": 22,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.1375,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "TB",
          "games": 160,
          "wins": 97,
          "losses": 63,
          "win_pct": 0.60625,
          "runs_scored": 721,
          "runs_allowed": 642,
          "run_differential": 79,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.49375,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": -0.3563,
        "win_pct_edge": -0.0625,
        "quality_edge": -0.4479,
        "season_quality_edge": -0.45,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": -0.45,
          "recent_quality_edge": -0.444,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": -0.4479
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 0.0,
        "reason": "season quality edge below action threshold"
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
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        "home_distribution": {
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          "3": 0.19043452151576304,
          "4": 0.15006436326796552,
          "5": 0.09672385365511897,
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          "8": 0.007756154288291883
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        "away_distribution": {
          "0": 0.06143683079838174,
          "1": 0.09203403377067901,
          "2": 0.12204290817236979,
          "3": 0.14325872343906731,
          "4": 0.14885863903205898,
          "5": 0.13692143730910886,
          "6": 0.11148419261950991,
          "7": 0.08035253354247618,
          "8": 0.051266101702421074,
          "9": 0.028953792184500678,
          "10": 0.014475215876918569,
          "11": 0.006406031707294634,
          "12": 0.002509559845213063
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.723224253526409,
      "home_runs": 4.273547417523234,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260926_TEX@MIN

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickMIN

Published scoreTEX 4 - 5 MIN

Final confidence51.0%

Calibrationraw 51.6% → blended 52.9%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.2% · weight 50.0% · n=535

H2H base featurehome net 26.0 · absolute 26.0 · n=4

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.0556

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.682733651414479-3.8662203911903976	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIN",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.019964,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.509982,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.509982,
    "away_win_probability": 0.490018
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.019964,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIN wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "TEX 4 - 5 MIN",
    "confidence": 0.50998155,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.516374,
    "sample_size": 535,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5421,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.529237,
    "published_confidence": 0.509982,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 4,
    "sample_weight": 0.05,
    "home_net_margin": 26.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 26.0,
    "home_average_margin": 6.5,
    "home_run_delta": 0.1625,
    "away_run_delta": -0.1625,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 8.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 6.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 10.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.0781,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.304,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.0556
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.020065926417066646
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.01952625222548985
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.019151084998096483
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.01876433639918112
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.018636015516660744
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05225386477913831,
      "1": 0.07876913931446108,
      "2": 0.1064325046089771,
      "3": 0.12890594991057908,
      "4": 0.13994331069430221,
      "5": 0.13617952767747163,
      "6": 0.1187823743730222,
      "7": 0.09286940863741383,
      "8": 0.06508394315667859,
      "9": 0.040884202739433974,
      "10": 0.023020656705595582,
      "11": 0.011618776105628193,
      "12": 0.005256341297298221
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.055418150897595796,
      "1": 0.08335920152209905,
      "2": 0.11190853861239396,
      "3": 0.134085268571148,
      "4": 0.14338610625626444,
      "5": 0.1368488776139567,
      "6": 0.11656913442074517,
      "7": 0.0886204736351373,
      "8": 0.06013021065253792,
      "9": 0.03641325874419708,
      "10": 0.019680427696401555,
      "11": 0.00949331039405321,
      "12": 0.0040870409834697415
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "TEX 4 - 5 MIN",
      "winner": "MIN"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "TEX 4 - 5 MIN",
      "winner": "MIN"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0525,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.654,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "MIN",
      "model_winner": "MIN",
      "simulation_winner": "MIN",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 3,
        "published_winner": "MIN",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667,
        "draw_majority_team": "MIN",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.0556,
      "winner": "MIN",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "MIN",
    "display_confidence": 0.51,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.602,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.51,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.0556,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.304,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0525,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.6667,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.3333,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 5,
        "median": 9,
        "max": 9,
        "range": 4
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
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      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

Every reviewed game

Date	Game	Pick	Final confidence	Raw confidence	Empirical hit rate	Empirical weight	Pred A-H	Actual A-H	Result	Largest recorded movement	Pipeline	Roadmap signals
20260926	20260926_ARI@SD	ARI	53.4%	51.0%	57.2%	50.0%	5.0-4.0	7-10	miss	Variance Applied (-0.0458)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.5101, "sample_size": 465, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.572, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.54105, "published_confidence": 0.534245, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -8.0, "absolute_net_margin": 8.0, "home_average_margin": -1.6, "home_run_delta": -0.0462, "away_run_delta": 0.0462, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -7.0 }, { "home_margin": 4.0 }, { "home_margin": -6.0 }, { "home_margin": 5.0 }, { "home_margin": -4.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.1281, "recent_quality_edge": -0.088, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.0525 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01803379593889277 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.01794868054256858 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.017932666842347355 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.017848028752252068 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.01635724048447301 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.04858614807884196, "1": 0.07341661896536385, "2": 0.09991834810806084, "3": 0.12247996831960009, "4": 0.13522401909828316, "5": 0.13446571602504295, "6": 0.12043098886620138, "7": 0.09714800590381996, "8": 0.07058273508043446, "9": 0.04618830559300412, "10": 0.02722290906232822, "11": 0.014451269121562924, "12": 0.006909496478844359, "13": 0.0029754712986116774 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.04682123222894069, "1": 0.07083116823872887, "2": 0.09673290600384894, "3": 0.1192593201479422, "4": 0.13273293208008533, "5": 0.13336237200423318, "6": 0.12096401655229817, "7": 0.09904837411213087, "8": 0.07321612962906868, "9": 0.04885786083663063, "10": 0.029432719623925963, "11": 0.016006434543198576, "12": 0.007858272359860361, "13": 0.003482794222376331, "14": 0.0013934674167312153 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "ARI 5 - 4 SD", "winner": "ARI" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "ARI 5 - 4 SD", "winner": "ARI" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.018, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.158, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "ARI", "model_winner": "ARI", "simulation_winner": "ARI", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 5, "published_winner": "ARI", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.8, "draw_majority_team": "ARI", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": -0.0525, "winner": "ARI", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260926	20260926_ATL@MIA	ATL	53.0%	50.0%	56.9%	50.0%	5.0-4.0	8-3	hit	Variance Applied (-0.6455)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.5005, "sample_size": 353, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5694, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.53495, "published_confidence": 0.53, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -16.0, "absolute_net_margin": 16.0, "home_average_margin": -3.2, "home_run_delta": -0.0923, "away_run_delta": 0.0923, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 3.0 }, { "home_margin": -8.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": -6.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.8, "recent_quality_edge": 0.048, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": -0.5032 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.0210531712486435 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.020008616064416312 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.01995373268880816 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.01975233582243306 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.019749340307225555 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.05823460361004147, "1": 0.0874277709202297, "2": 0.11669691755739614, "3": 0.13848765480051034, "4": 0.14611824052216066, "5": 0.13706908204392818, "6": 0.1143184353264038, "7": 0.0847685464132098, "8": 0.05588495396954374, "9": 0.03275644452460747, "10": 0.017070266909069855, "11": 0.007909072643204047, "12": 0.003258010759694918 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.05610733384565717, "1": 0.08435625639983495, "2": 0.1130877151903661, "3": 0.13518049322142892, "4": 0.14408311497188145, "5": 0.1369344169004126, "6": 0.11604130653491891, "7": 0.0876825292035473, "8": 0.05907639593774414, "9": 0.0354907667396488, "10": 0.01901153733254394, "11": 0.009080704784192891, "12": 0.003867428937822902 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "ATL 5 - 4 MIA", "winner": "ATL" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "ATL 5 - 4 MIA", "winner": "ATL" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0103, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.162, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "ATL", "model_winner": "ATL", "simulation_winner": "ATL", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 5, "published_winner": "ATL", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6, "draw_majority_team": "ATL", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.5032, "winner": "ATL", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260926	20260926_CHC@BOS	BOS	53.9%	56.5%	55.6%	50.0%	4.0-5.0	Official result pending	void_not_on_official_schedule	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.565085, "sample_size": 773, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5563, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.560693, "published_confidence": 0.539161, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": false, "sample_size": 0, "home_net_margin": 0.0, "home_average_margin": 0.0, "home_run_delta": 0.0, "away_run_delta": 0.0 }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.4497, "recent_quality_edge": -0.348, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.4141 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.021877714980082407 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.02180144841689067 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02100981749150837 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.020936576452632884 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.020360419707339754 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.054409100278046324, "1": 0.08189766519653537, "2": 0.1101733570655604, "3": 0.13246060397059425, "4": 0.14233180756649885, "5": 0.13668544923137887, "6": 0.1173134184218084, "7": 0.08998667010005955, "8": 0.06168985628445198, "9": 0.0377967468145148, "10": 0.020696655477235985, "11": 0.010128636959237849, "12": 0.00443003263407748 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.06869927251059584, "1": 0.10240223942495302, "2": 0.13377856585292025, "3": 0.15317341070585935, "4": 0.15370924710459338, "5": 0.1351874490738366, "6": 0.10420594982001857, "7": 0.07039931367072035, "8": 0.04168349246581549, "9": 0.021631146512603932, "10": 0.009838179540524307, "11": 0.00392165797554387, "12": 0.0013700753420151355 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "CHC 4 - 5 BOS", "winner": "BOS" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "CHC 4 - 5 BOS", "winner": "BOS" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.058, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.348, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "BOS", "model_winner": "BOS", "simulation_winner": "BOS", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 5, "published_winner": "BOS", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.4, "draw_majority_team": "CHC", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": -0.4141, "winner": "BOS", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260926	20260926_CIN@TOR	TOR	62.0%	72.6%	56.2%	50.0%	3.0-5.0	5-1	miss	Variance Applied (0.71)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.726013, "sample_size": 292, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5616, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.643806, "published_confidence": 0.619523, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 1, "sample_weight": 0.0167, "home_net_margin": 1.0, "absolute_net_margin": 1.0, "home_average_margin": 1.0, "home_run_delta": 0.0083, "away_run_delta": -0.0083, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.75, "recent_quality_edge": -0.14, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.4385 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.020778313221030298 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.020315637561909895 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.020113313837719755 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.019665445878565897 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.01949790213356225 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.04224360983072501, "1": 0.06410382227170823, "2": 0.08836041917523721, "3": 0.11063245460325823, "4": 0.12582248777169777, "5": 0.12998251219382267, "6": 0.12197266808282566, "7": 0.10396593418079533, "8": 0.0804953022701961, "9": 0.056611016066851566, "10": 0.03616448649758915, "11": 0.020985271625929294, "12": 0.011061087449556108, "13": 0.0052958051275116425, "14": 0.0023031228522962586 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.07413411683702527, "1": 0.11009349437321107, "2": 0.14223202868901244, "3": 0.15985468252872997, "4": 0.1562951601644408, "5": 0.13294068344667506, "6": 0.09836995985917302, "7": 0.06332268054698986, "8": 0.03546078108393206, "9": 0.01727545575863595, "10": 0.007321548433805154, "11": 0.0026994082783691675 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "CIN 3 - 5 TOR", "winner": "TOR" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "CIN 3 - 5 TOR", "winner": "TOR" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0898, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.21, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "TOR", "model_winner": "TOR", "simulation_winner": "TOR", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "TOR", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5, "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": 0.4385, "winner": "TOR", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260926	20260926_CLE@KC	CLE	56.0%	70.5%	56.7%	50.0%	6.0-5.0	11-5	hit	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.70523, "sample_size": 616, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5666, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.635915, "published_confidence": 0.56, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -8.0, "absolute_net_margin": 8.0, "home_average_margin": -1.6, "home_run_delta": -0.0462, "away_run_delta": 0.0462, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": -10.0 }, { "home_margin": 5.0 }, { "home_margin": 3.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.9062, "recent_quality_edge": -1.016, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.9447 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.01489839592462102 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.014540261388299775 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.014510453280705873 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01418269176349365 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.014161644289201717 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.04359102554784401, "1": 0.06608828849060187, "2": 0.09084727251416246, "3": 0.1132294117583556, "4": 0.12795774529356252, "5": 0.13110941406729565, "6": 0.12180388594618137, "7": 0.10260024106864014, "8": 0.07836020946756997, "9": 0.05426287062061741, "10": 0.03406982570659096, "11": 0.01939532352751463, "12": 0.010011153367146272, "13": 0.004685232754657416, "14": 0.001988099869259802 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.027203818102535974, "1": 0.041706870744147986, "2": 0.05928515648082174, "3": 0.07813488110103692, "4": 0.0954782744192245, "5": 0.1081744729345978, "6": 0.11363330414224865, "7": 0.11067438127103496, "8": 0.09994226580323683, "9": 0.08367811729284656, "10": 0.06495838666578768, "11": 0.04675404392113401, "12": 0.031200657893066492, "13": 0.019304961656551062, "14": 0.01107477102547963, "15": 0.005890622459420496, "16": 0.0029050140868287903 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "CLE 6 - 5 KC", "winner": "CLE" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "CLE 6 - 5 KC", "winner": "CLE" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": true, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0587, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -1.086, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "CLE", "model_winner": "CLE", "simulation_winner": "CLE", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "CLE", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.3333, "draw_majority_team": "KC", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": true, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.9447, "winner": "CLE", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260926	20260926_COL@CHW	CHW	69.8%	92.0%	61.8%	17.0%	4.0-9.0	9-6	miss	Enhanced Prediction (3.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.92, "sample_size": 34, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.6176, "empirical_weight": 0.17, "blended_confidence": 0.868592, "published_confidence": 0.697769, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 1, "sample_weight": 0.0167, "home_net_margin": 5.0, "absolute_net_margin": 5.0, "home_average_margin": 5.0, "home_run_delta": 0.0417, "away_run_delta": -0.0417, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 5.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 1.8063, "recent_quality_edge": 1.008, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 1.5269 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 8, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.015168834596376734 }, { "home_runs": 8, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.014983907785142754 }, { "home_runs": 7, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.014861882145506478 }, { "home_runs": 7, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.014680697463410981 }, { "home_runs": 9, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.014590877602594808 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.016040265683499547, "1": 0.024793303050629482, "2": 0.03611669620674972, "3": 0.04958295881930362, "4": 0.06415162450466746, "5": 0.07822285689703878, "6": 0.08988981452878998, "7": 0.09735047863980041, "8": 0.09936112357153364, "9": 0.09557530496343074, "10": 0.08664144502830254, "11": 0.074021260667543, "12": 0.05959887522992751, "13": 0.04522415343078239, "14": 0.032341013374538256, "15": 0.021796541965763416, "16": 0.013844343551605793, "17": 0.008287202168815065, "18": 0.0046751364993504714, "19": 0.002485601217928002 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.06687720644363025, "1": 0.09981131989150051, "2": 0.13088502391847667, "3": 0.15080251960270258, "4": 0.15266367821873658, "5": 0.13579110708290734, "6": 0.10612444188854266, "7": 0.07287322549364426, "8": 0.04396722429039417, "9": 0.023307655388322277, "10": 0.010856169381336924, "11": 0.004442864991062478, "12": 0.0015975634087433037 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 9, "score_text": "COL 4 - 9 CHW", "winner": "CHW" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 9, "score_text": "COL 4 - 9 CHW", "winner": "CHW" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": true, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0845, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 1.358, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 9, "winner": "CHW", "model_winner": "CHW", "simulation_winner": "CHW", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 5, "published_winner": "CHW", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "CHW", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": true, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 5, "simulation_margin": 5, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 9 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 9 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 5, "final_margin": 5, "winner_quality_edge": 1.5269, "winner": "CHW", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 9, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260926	20260926_HOU@OAK	HOU	52.3%	53.9%	55.8%	50.0%	6.0-5.0	13-2	hit	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.538659, "sample_size": 787, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5578, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.54823, "published_confidence": 0.522895, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -3.0, "absolute_net_margin": 3.0, "home_average_margin": -0.6, "home_run_delta": -0.0173, "away_run_delta": 0.0173, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": -4.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -1.1781, "recent_quality_edge": -0.3, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.8708 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.015880305020020583 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.01541952807832275 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.015269921787645196 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.015068122664044503 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.01494840117513054 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.03897322171158254, "1": 0.05927245034460548, "2": 0.0822465585456707, "3": 0.10412640341850654, "4": 0.12027691516691238, "5": 0.12675992506189404, "6": 0.12188771809248154, "7": 0.10693409521488689, "8": 0.08559546028280388, "9": 0.06251202161333529, "10": 0.04165380084864542, "11": 0.025323516234157385, "12": 0.014046614395148028, "13": 0.007108821220311337, "14": 0.0032824778490586812 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.037673664041840804, "1": 0.057346823591476276, "2": 0.07978642786349215, "3": 0.10146045900082837, "4": 0.11792686977237932, "5": 0.12527859268034897, "6": 0.12164355628006042, "7": 0.10795667440956991, "8": 0.0875705412781383, "9": 0.06492541250038604, "10": 0.043996643767718065, "11": 0.027250377672528595, "12": 0.015426721894556397, "13": 0.007982205824466336, "14": 0.0037750294222101 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "HOU 6 - 5 OAK", "winner": "HOU" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "HOU 6 - 5 OAK", "winner": "HOU" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0392, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.23, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "HOU", "model_winner": "HOU", "simulation_winner": "HOU", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "HOU", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667, "draw_majority_team": "HOU", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.8708, "winner": "HOU", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260926	20260926_LAA@SEA	SEA	51.8%	51.0%	55.9%	50.0%	4.0-5.0	4-8	hit	Variance Applied (0.2711)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.5101, "sample_size": 707, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5587, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.5344, "published_confidence": 0.518021, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -2.0, "absolute_net_margin": 2.0, "home_average_margin": -0.4, "home_run_delta": -0.0115, "away_run_delta": 0.0115, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": 5.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.2563, "recent_quality_edge": -0.02, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.1596 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02257426120080997 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.02204728932326133 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02179176748277193 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.02128306208048449 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02068228589014084 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.062078206866095276, "1": 0.09295409953075344, "2": 0.12310107178245816, "3": 0.1441846481274884, "4": 0.1493619969353114, "5": 0.13684379277172584, "6": 0.11088530504611514, "7": 0.07946699491040504, "8": 0.05036901831890688, "9": 0.028236059264682093, "10": 0.013999372986092403, "11": 0.006138708147383689, "12": 0.0023807253125822875 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.06451258961215141, "1": 0.09643853633014901, "2": 0.12707910531298816, "3": 0.1476097653729817, "4": 0.1511379177033022, "5": 0.1364109338774332, "6": 0.10852813326401499, "7": 0.07611195670364757, "8": 0.04705229857554568, "9": 0.025640483158079163, "10": 0.012316546990002083, "11": 0.005215177985768744, "12": 0.0019465551139359906 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "LAA 4 - 5 SEA", "winner": "SEA" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "LAA 4 - 5 SEA", "winner": "SEA" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0737, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.23, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "SEA", "model_winner": "SEA", "simulation_winner": "SEA", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "SEA", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "SEA", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.1596, "winner": "SEA", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260926	20260926_LAD@SF	LAD	55.3%	61.9%	55.8%	50.0%	4.0-2.0	4-3	hit	Enhanced Prediction (-1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.619065, "sample_size": 292, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5582, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.588632, "published_confidence": 0.553474, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -19.0, "absolute_net_margin": 19.0, "home_average_margin": -3.8, "home_run_delta": -0.1096, "away_run_delta": 0.1096, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": -6.0 }, { "home_margin": -6.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -2.0719, "recent_quality_edge": -0.84, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -1.6407 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.027502141466107275 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.027324754845414745 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02636601713718198 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.02619595842786839 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.024280974995940452 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.09511693550481244, "1": 0.1391618497342937, "2": 0.17191443929042818, "3": 0.17932231496445125, "4": 0.1579378194556346, "5": 0.11745398546860773, "6": 0.07375291626295905, "7": 0.03910393444910606, "8": 0.01750618583168421, "9": 0.006617476864556217, "10": 0.0021121421734665844 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.06808124051857248, "1": 0.1015242009927863, "2": 0.1328009165916416, "3": 0.1523778836495145, "4": 0.15336708915206276, "5": 0.13540409067747033, "6": 0.10486263526310913, "7": 0.07123593399268578, "8": 0.04244894007317826, "9": 0.02218829600536214, "10": 0.010173500809013004, "11": 0.004091723416182939, "12": 0.0014435488584206692 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 2, "score_text": "LAD 4 - 2 SF", "winner": "LAD" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 2, "score_text": "LAD 4 - 2 SF", "winner": "LAD" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": true, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0175, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -1.19, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 2, "winner": "LAD", "model_winner": "LAD", "simulation_winner": "LAD", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "LAD", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "LAD", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": true, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 2 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 2 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": 1.6407, "winner": "LAD", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 2, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260926	20260926_NYM@WAS	WAS	50.6%	46.8%	54.2%	50.0%	6.0-7.0	7-1	miss	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.468452, "sample_size": 535, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5421, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.505276, "published_confidence": 0.506441, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -5.0, "absolute_net_margin": 5.0, "home_average_margin": -1.0, "home_run_delta": -0.0288, "away_run_delta": 0.0288, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.3156, "recent_quality_edge": 0.424, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.3536 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.017648647162557214 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.017647250177868265 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.017332425728731476 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.017331053774658035 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01627121860575567 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.04462036389899704, "1": 0.06760188945516278, "2": 0.09273446007802161, "3": 0.1151807885520235, "4": 0.1295315414436107, "5": 0.13189477959630952, "6": 0.12160075341766621, "7": 0.10150828995386697, "8": 0.0767226056418621, "9": 0.05250513297075402, "10": 0.03253394798725963, "11": 0.018252752285204135, "12": 0.00927206651014738, "13": 0.004264629464254882, "14": 0.00177599874485938 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.04758884166953851, "1": 0.07195520718178232, "2": 0.09811573080238492, "3": 0.1206519593227498, "4": 0.13379794281381888, "5": 0.13380853447402882, "6": 0.12068061460010866, "7": 0.09815457194612387, "8": 0.0719950892811674, "9": 0.04762275729015756, "10": 0.028408317954862563, "11": 0.015282549965377363, "12": 0.0074142196773282956, "13": 0.0032438024390931226, "14": 0.0012798605814779713 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 7, "score_text": "NYM 6 - 7 WAS", "winner": "WAS" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 7, "score_text": "NYM 6 - 7 WAS", "winner": "WAS" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.017, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.214, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 7, "winner": "WAS", "model_winner": "WAS", "simulation_winner": "WAS", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "WAS", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667, "draw_majority_team": "WAS", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 7 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 7 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.3536, "winner": "WAS", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 7, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260926	20260926_PIT@DET	PIT	51.3%	49.0%	56.2%	50.0%	6.0-4.0	3-4	miss	Enhanced Prediction (-1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.489827, "sample_size": 697, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5624, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.526114, "published_confidence": 0.513337, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 4, "sample_weight": 0.05, "home_net_margin": 0.0, "absolute_net_margin": 0.0, "home_average_margin": 0.0, "home_run_delta": 0.0, "away_run_delta": -0.0, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": 3.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.225, "recent_quality_edge": -0.188, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.0805 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.021251732544393952 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.020213408043470524 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.020110016951405126 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.02000592405410092 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.019845006453339066 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.058977107156862565, "1": 0.08849769353490979, "2": 0.1179458167108024, "3": 0.13961601443502344, "4": 0.14678782476000188, "5": 0.13707142810821182, "6": 0.11368572736156705, "7": 0.08374657530301198, "8": 0.05479365513496946, "9": 0.031841652036134045, "10": 0.01643474675969841, "11": 0.007534120209021072, "12": 0.0030676384897860972 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.0568140329921043, "1": 0.08537765794637749, "2": 0.11429183999327426, "3": 0.13629144029357074, "4": 0.14477857805400782, "5": 0.13700057878972596, "6": 0.11548427872411408, "7": 0.08671729050008867, "8": 0.05800573077944998, "9": 0.03456356053841957, "10": 0.018346296834493053, "11": 0.008674825080990099, "12": 0.0036538894733838334 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "PIT 6 - 4 DET", "winner": "PIT" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "PIT 6 - 4 DET", "winner": "PIT" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0004, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.188, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "PIT", "model_winner": "PIT", "simulation_winner": "PIT", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 4, "published_winner": "PIT", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "PIT", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": -0.0805, "winner": "PIT", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260926	20260926_STL@MIL	MIL	53.5%	58.6%	56.2%	50.0%	4.0-5.0	2-3	hit	Variance Applied (0.6694)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.5864, "sample_size": 694, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.562, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.5742, "published_confidence": 0.535444, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 13.0, "absolute_net_margin": 13.0, "home_average_margin": 2.6, "home_run_delta": 0.075, "away_run_delta": -0.075, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 4.0 }, { "home_margin": 4.0 }, { "home_margin": -4.0 }, { "home_margin": 8.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 1.7063, "recent_quality_edge": 0.976, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 1.4507 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.020825757469493236 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.020594257526547213 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.020572940634448512 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.02034425101343073 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.018944726513292136 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.049498693925751826, "1": 0.07474938200880432, "2": 0.1015440169876522, "3": 0.12408918707072732, "4": 0.13641006180312826, "5": 0.1348937221659772, "6": 0.11999687544342001, "7": 0.09602426763953185, "8": 0.06912337518274925, "9": 0.044761201416735154, "10": 0.026074224475584995, "11": 0.013663247393895508, "12": 0.006440644529857688, "13": 0.002731099956184336 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.06688807027951396, "1": 0.09982678859806086, "2": 0.13090237726883464, "3": 0.1508168852246405, "4": 0.1526702443662088, "5": 0.13578782571725037, "6": 0.10611316490593604, "7": 0.07285841204270513, "8": 0.043953365564705485, "9": 0.02329735239391861, "10": 0.010849831724317935, "11": 0.004439575399941329, "12": 0.0015961065139661799 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "STL 4 - 5 MIL", "winner": "MIL" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "STL 4 - 5 MIL", "winner": "MIL" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": true, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0046, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 1.186, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "MIL", "model_winner": "MIL", "simulation_winner": "MIL", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "MIL", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667, "draw_majority_team": "MIL", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": true, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 1.4507, "winner": "MIL", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260926	20260926_TB@PHI	TB	60.8%	67.2%	57.4%	50.0%	4.0-2.0	12-1	hit	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.6725, "sample_size": 462, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5736, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.62305, "published_confidence": 0.607565, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 1, "sample_weight": 0.0167, "home_net_margin": -2.0, "absolute_net_margin": 2.0, "home_average_margin": -2.0, "home_run_delta": -0.0167, "away_run_delta": 0.0167, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -2.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.45, "recent_quality_edge": -0.444, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.4479 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.029424694533238965 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02834782369755784 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.028317766465058694 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.02728140645107781 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.02706508331709843 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.11654530713558094, "1": 0.16782408556570202, "2": 0.1976687058579241, "3": 0.19043452151576304, "4": 0.15006436326796552, "5": 0.09672385365511897, "6": 0.05099337343507729, "7": 0.021989635278576232, "8": 0.007756154288291883 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.06143683079838174, "1": 0.09203403377067901, "2": 0.12204290817236979, "3": 0.14325872343906731, "4": 0.14885863903205898, "5": 0.13692143730910886, "6": 0.11148419261950991, "7": 0.08035253354247618, "8": 0.051266101702421074, "9": 0.028953792184500678, "10": 0.014475215876918569, "11": 0.006406031707294634, "12": 0.002509559845213063 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 2, "score_text": "TB 4 - 2 PHI", "winner": "TB" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 2, "score_text": "TB 4 - 2 PHI", "winner": "TB" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": true, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0828, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.794, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 2, "winner": "TB", "model_winner": "TB", "simulation_winner": "TB", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "TB", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "TB", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": true, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 2 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 2 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": 0.4479, "winner": "TB", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 2, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260926	20260926_TEX@MIN	MIN	51.0%	51.6%	54.2%	50.0%	4.0-5.0	6-2	miss	Enhanced Prediction (2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.516374, "sample_size": 535, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5421, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.529237, "published_confidence": 0.509982, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 4, "sample_weight": 0.05, "home_net_margin": 26.0, "absolute_net_margin": 26.0, "home_average_margin": 6.5, "home_run_delta": 0.1625, "away_run_delta": -0.1625, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 8.0 }, { "home_margin": 6.0 }, { "home_margin": 10.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.0781, "recent_quality_edge": 0.304, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.0556 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.020065926417066646 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.01952625222548985 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.019151084998096483 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.01876433639918112 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.018636015516660744 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.05225386477913831, "1": 0.07876913931446108, "2": 0.1064325046089771, "3": 0.12890594991057908, "4": 0.13994331069430221, "5": 0.13617952767747163, "6": 0.1187823743730222, "7": 0.09286940863741383, "8": 0.06508394315667859, "9": 0.040884202739433974, "10": 0.023020656705595582, "11": 0.011618776105628193, "12": 0.005256341297298221 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.055418150897595796, "1": 0.08335920152209905, "2": 0.11190853861239396, "3": 0.134085268571148, "4": 0.14338610625626444, "5": 0.1368488776139567, "6": 0.11656913442074517, "7": 0.0886204736351373, "8": 0.06013021065253792, "9": 0.03641325874419708, "10": 0.019680427696401555, "11": 0.00949331039405321, "12": 0.0040870409834697415 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "TEX 4 - 5 MIN", "winner": "MIN" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "TEX 4 - 5 MIN", "winner": "MIN" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0525, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.654, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "MIN", "model_winner": "MIN", "simulation_winner": "MIN", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "MIN", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667, "draw_majority_team": "MIN", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.0556, "winner": "MIN", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }

Starting-pitcher component quality

H	{ "mae": 2.3462, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.0385 }
R	{ "mae": 2.2308, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.3077 }
ER	{ "mae": 2.1154, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.5 }
BB	{ "mae": 1.3846, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.3846 }
SO	{ "mae": 2.6538, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 1.1154 }
HR	{ "mae": 0.8077, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": -0.2692 }
IP_outs	{ "mae_outs": 5.5769, "mae_innings": 1.859, "bias_outs": 4.1154 }

IP error is measured in outs. No single-outing ERA is used; ER and workload are compared directly.

Date

Game

Side

Pred starter

Actual starter

Match

Pred IP

Actual IP

Δ outs

Pred ER

Actual ER

Δ ER

H P/A

BB P/A

SO P/A

All context

20260926

20260926_ARI@SD

away

Taylor Clarke

True

6.0

0.2

-16

2/3

3/0

6/0

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.598930481283422,
      "WHIP": 0.8823529411764706,
      "IP": 62.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 62,
      "role_avg_IP": 1.005,
      "recent_avg_IP": 1.067,
      "last_start_IP": 0.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.1617,
      "sample_weight": 0.912,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0137,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9547,
      "walk_factor": 0.9252,
      "homer_factor": 1.0196,
      "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 16.0,
      "bb_percent": 5.0,
      "woba": 0.264,
      "xwoba": 0.322,
      "barrel_percent": 9.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 34.1,
      "whiff_percent": 22.5
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 151,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 6.0,
      "season_IP": 62.1,
      "season_ERA": 2.599,
      "season_WHIP": 0.882,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 12.781,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7188,
        "prior_weight": 0.2812
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "664199",
      "report_date": "20260926",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 62,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 4.0,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 5.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 20.0,
            "Pitches": 76.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.0,
            "ER": 0.6,
            "R": 0.6,
            "H": 0.8,
            "BB": 0.2,
            "SO": 1.0,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 4.0,
            "Pitches": 15.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.0625,
            "WHIP": 0.9375,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.5625,
            "H_per_IP": 0.75,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.1875,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.9375,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.375
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 10.0,
            "ER": 5.0,
            "R": 5.0,
            "H": 8.0,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 9.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 38.0,
            "Pitches": 143.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.0,
            "ER": 0.5,
            "R": 0.5,
            "H": 0.8,
            "BB": 0.2,
            "SO": 0.9,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 3.8,
            "Pitches": 14.3
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.5,
            "WHIP": 1.0,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.5,
            "H_per_IP": 0.8,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.2,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.9,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.2
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 62,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 62.1,
            "ER": 18.0,
            "R": 21.0,
            "H": 44.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 37.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 238.0,
            "Pitches": 883.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.0,
            "ER": 0.2903,
            "R": 0.3387,
            "H": 0.7097,
            "BB": 0.1774,
            "SO": 0.5968,
            "HR": 0.0968,
            "BF": 3.8387,
            "Pitches": 14.2419
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.5989,
            "WHIP": 0.8824,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.28877,
            "H_per_IP": 0.70588,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.17647,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.59358,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09626
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 2.1,
        "predicted_ER": 1.188,
        "predicted_H": 1.977,
        "predicted_BB": 0.585,
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4688,
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      "form_reliability": 0.7188,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 12.781,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7188,
        "prior_weight": 0.2812
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 2.1,
          "final": 4.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
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          "form": 1.188,
          "final": 1.0999,
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
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        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.443,
          "final": 4.443,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.0649,
          "final": 1.0649,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 10.0,
        "ER": 5,
        "H": 8,
        "BB": 2,
        "SO": 9,
        "HR": 2,
        "ERA": 4.5,
        "WHIP": 1.0,
        "K9": 8.1,
        "HR9": 1.8,
        "games_pitched": 10,
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        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-01T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9970322928826013,
    "stat_evolution": [
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        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 6.0,
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        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 12.781,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7188,
          "prior_weight": 0.2812
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 1,
          "predicted_H": 2,
          "predicted_BB": 3,
          "predicted_SO": 6,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "664199",
      "player_name": "Taylor Clarke",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "ARI",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
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            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "percent_delta": null,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            },
            {
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 1.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 2.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            "percent_delta": null,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
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            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 0,
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          "biggest_boost": null,
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          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "ARI",
        "games": 160,
        "wins": 86,
        "losses": 74,
        "win_pct": 0.5375,
        "runs_scored": 728.0,
        "runs_allowed": 711.0,
        "run_differential": 17.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1062,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.55,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4437,
        "offense_index": 1.0144,
        "defense_index": 1.0093,
        "current_streak": "W6",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.8,
          "run_differential": 15.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1149
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "SD",
        "games": 160,
        "wins": 89,
        "losses": 71,
        "win_pct": 0.5563,
        "runs_scored": 703.0,
        "runs_allowed": 670.0,
        "run_differential": 33.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.2062,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3937,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1875,
        "offense_index": 0.9796,
        "defense_index": 1.0711,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6,
          "run_differential": 10.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1431
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0282,
        "offense_edge": 0.0144,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0204,
        "defense_strength": 0.0093,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0711,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0,
        "run_prevention": 0.9972,
        "strikeout": 1.0008
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "664199",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "664199",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 228.0,
            "k_percent": 16.0,
            "bb_percent": 5.0,
            "woba": 0.264,
            "xwoba": 0.322,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.5,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 9.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 34.1,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.0809,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.5635,
            "whiff_percent": 22.5,
            "swing_percent": 49.9
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8982,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.1127,
            "command_and_miss": -0.3157,
            "regression_edge": -1.6571,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.3143,
            "barrel_edge": -0.4222,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.5429,
            "whiff_edge": -0.3857,
            "bb_edge": 1.025,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0927
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "664199",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 15,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 15,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 91.51984764546245,
              "release_spin_rate": 2087.327565588381,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 15,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 91.51984764546245,
                "release_spin_rate": 2087.327565588381,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 91.5198,
              "release_spin_rate": 2087.3276,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0927,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.6623,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.1617,
          "sample_weight": 0.912,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0137,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9547,
          "walk_factor": 0.9252,
          "homer_factor": 1.0196,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.058,
          "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "664199",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0125,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0125,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9318,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0179,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9587,
            "adjusted": 3
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 103,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least three innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -16 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: True; actual quality start: False."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260926_ARI@SD.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260926

20260926_ARI@SD

home

Walker Buehler

True

4.2

3.2

-3

-2

5/5

2/1

7/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.56,
      "WHIP": 1.34,
      "IP": 150.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 31,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.839,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.733,
      "last_start_IP": 6.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.1552,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0132,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9571,
      "walk_factor": 0.994,
      "homer_factor": 1.0293,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 20.2,
      "bb_percent": 8.8,
      "woba": 0.327,
      "xwoba": 0.315,
      "barrel_percent": 8.4,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.7,
      "whiff_percent": 19.5
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 189,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
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      "effective_weights": {
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            "Pitches": 388.0
          },
          "per_game": {
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            "R": 2.2,
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        },
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          },
          "per_game": {
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            "ER": 1.9,
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          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.42,
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            "ER_per_IP": 0.38,
            "H_per_IP": 0.92,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.28,
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            "HR_per_IP": 0.16
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        },
        "season": {
          "games": 31,
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            "IP": 150.0,
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          },
          "per_game": {
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          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.56,
            "WHIP": 1.34,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.50667,
            "H_per_IP": 0.96667,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.37333,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.85333,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.14
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
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        "predicted_BB": 1.525,
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
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      "model_weight": 0.4087,
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      "adaptive_parameters": {
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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      "applied_metrics": {
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          "form": 4.2,
          "final": 4.2,
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 2.187,
          "final": 3.3366,
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.617,
          "final": 4.7735,
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        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.525,
          "final": 1.7191,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 3.992,
          "final": 4.404,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.923,
          "final": 0.5458,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.079,
          "final": 4.079,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2729,
          "final": 1.2729,
          "source": "form_only"
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
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        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 50.0,
        "ER": 19,
        "H": 46,
        "BB": 14,
        "SO": 37,
        "HR": 8,
        "ERA": 3.4199999999999995,
        "WHIP": 1.1999999999999997,
        "K9": 6.659999999999999,
        "HR9": 1.4399999999999997,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 4,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-20T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8745925292968749,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 5.0,
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          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
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        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
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          "sample_size": 31.0,
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          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8611,
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "621111",
      "player_name": "Walker Buehler",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "SD",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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              "percent_delta": null,
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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              "delta": 2.0,
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              "projection_effect": "better",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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            "biggest_deboost": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
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          {
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          {
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          {
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          {
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
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            "delta": 2.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.4,
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        ],
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          "biggest_deboost": {
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            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "SD",
        "games": 160,
        "wins": 89,
        "losses": 71,
        "win_pct": 0.5563,
        "runs_scored": 703.0,
        "runs_allowed": 670.0,
        "run_differential": 33.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.2062,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3937,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1875,
        "offense_index": 0.9796,
        "defense_index": 1.0711,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6,
          "run_differential": 10.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1431
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "ARI",
        "games": 160,
        "wins": 86,
        "losses": 74,
        "win_pct": 0.5375,
        "runs_scored": 728.0,
        "runs_allowed": 711.0,
        "run_differential": 17.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1062,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.55,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4437,
        "offense_index": 1.0144,
        "defense_index": 1.0093,
        "current_streak": "W6",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.8,
          "run_differential": 15.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1149
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0282,
        "offense_edge": -0.0204,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0144,
        "defense_strength": 0.0711,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0093,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0027,
        "run_prevention": 0.9938,
        "strikeout": 0.9997
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "621111",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "621111",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 583.0,
            "k_percent": 20.2,
            "bb_percent": 8.8,
            "woba": 0.327,
            "xwoba": 0.315,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 31.4,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.4,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.0476,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.091,
            "whiff_percent": 19.5,
            "swing_percent": 45.3
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8982,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.1591,
            "command_and_miss": -0.3857,
            "regression_edge": 0.3429,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.1143,
            "barrel_edge": -0.2667,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.1143,
            "whiff_edge": -0.8143,
            "bb_edge": 0.075,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0012
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "621111",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 73,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 73,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.84218390169383,
              "release_spin_rate": 2199.080983688629,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 73,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.84218390169383,
                "release_spin_rate": 2199.080983688629,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.8422,
              "release_spin_rate": 2199.081,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0012,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.0088,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.1552,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0132,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9571,
          "walk_factor": 0.994,
          "homer_factor": 1.0293,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.012,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "621111",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0132,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0132,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.994,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0293,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9571,
            "adjusted": 4
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.2,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 5,
      "predicted_ER": 5,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 94,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260926_ARI@SD.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260926

20260926_ATL@MIA

away

Brent Suter

True

5.0

3.0

-6

-4

4/1

3/0

3/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.477272727272727,
      "WHIP": 1.25,
      "IP": 88.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 53,
      "role_avg_IP": 1.889,
      "recent_avg_IP": 1.889,
      "last_start_IP": 2.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.1037,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9912,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9794,
      "walk_factor": 0.96,
      "homer_factor": 0.9359,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 20.4,
      "bb_percent": 7.1,
      "woba": 0.311,
      "xwoba": 0.307,
      "barrel_percent": 6.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 30.7,
      "whiff_percent": 23.2
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 235,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.0,
      "season_IP": 88.0,
      "season_ERA": 3.477,
      "season_WHIP": 1.25,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 18.044,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.783,
        "prior_weight": 0.217
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "608718",
      "report_date": "20260926",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 53,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 8.1,
            "ER": 1.0,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 7.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 32.0,
            "Pitches": 119.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.2,
            "ER": 0.2,
            "R": 0.4,
            "H": 1.0,
            "BB": 0.4,
            "SO": 1.4,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 6.4,
            "Pitches": 23.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.08,
            "WHIP": 0.84,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.12,
            "H_per_IP": 0.6,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.24,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.84,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 19.2,
            "ER": 4.0,
            "R": 6.0,
            "H": 17.0,
            "BB": 6.0,
            "SO": 16.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 81.0,
            "Pitches": 298.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 2.0,
            "ER": 0.4,
            "R": 0.6,
            "H": 1.7,
            "BB": 0.6,
            "SO": 1.6,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 8.1,
            "Pitches": 29.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.8305,
            "WHIP": 1.1695,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.20339,
            "H_per_IP": 0.86441,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.30508,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.81356,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10169
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 53,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 88.0,
            "ER": 34.0,
            "R": 42.0,
            "H": 85.0,
            "BB": 25.0,
            "SO": 75.0,
            "HR": 9.0,
            "BF": 366.0,
            "Pitches": 1483.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.2,
            "ER": 0.6415,
            "R": 0.7925,
            "H": 1.6038,
            "BB": 0.4717,
            "SO": 1.4151,
            "HR": 0.1698,
            "BF": 6.9057,
            "Pitches": 27.9811
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.4773,
            "WHIP": 1.25,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.38636,
            "H_per_IP": 0.96591,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.28409,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.85227,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10227
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 2.1,
        "predicted_ER": 0.67,
        "predicted_H": 2.017,
        "predicted_BB": 0.732,
        "predicted_SO": 2.123,
        "predicted_HR": 0.294,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.4297,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.108
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4417,
      "form_weight": 0.5583,
      "form_reliability": 0.783,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 18.044,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.783,
        "prior_weight": 0.217
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 2.1,
          "final": 3.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 0.67,
          "final": 2.1408,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.017,
          "final": 2.8929,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 0.732,
          "final": 1.7337,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.123,
          "final": 2.5104,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.294,
          "final": 0.1641,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.4297,
          "final": 2.4297,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.108,
          "final": 1.108,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 19.2,
        "ER": 4,
        "H": 17,
        "BB": 6,
        "SO": 16,
        "HR": 2,
        "ERA": 1.8305084745762714,
        "WHIP": 1.169491525423729,
        "K9": 7.322033898305086,
        "HR9": 0.9152542372881357,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 2,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-23T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8001610611478487,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 3.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 18.044,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.783,
          "prior_weight": 0.217
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "608718",
      "player_name": "Brent Suter",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "ATL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 0,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 0,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "ATL",
        "games": 160,
        "wins": 93,
        "losses": 67,
        "win_pct": 0.5813,
        "runs_scored": 731.0,
        "runs_allowed": 618.0,
        "run_differential": 113.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.7063,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5687,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8625,
        "offense_index": 1.0187,
        "defense_index": 1.1611,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1,
          "run_differential": -3.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1557
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "MIA",
        "games": 160,
        "wins": 79,
        "losses": 81,
        "win_pct": 0.4938,
        "runs_scored": 707.0,
        "runs_allowed": 701.0,
        "run_differential": 6.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0375,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4188,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3812,
        "offense_index": 0.9853,
        "defense_index": 1.0236,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1,
          "run_differential": 0.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0007
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.1564,
        "offense_edge": 0.0187,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0147,
        "defense_strength": 0.1611,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0236,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0117,
        "run_prevention": 0.9737,
        "strikeout": 1.0059
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "608718",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "608718",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 354.0,
            "k_percent": 20.4,
            "bb_percent": 7.1,
            "woba": 0.311,
            "xwoba": 0.307,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.7,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 30.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 75.0643,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.0597,
            "whiff_percent": 23.2,
            "swing_percent": 46.6
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8982,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.2525,
            "command_and_miss": -0.1029,
            "regression_edge": 0.1143,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.1143,
            "barrel_edge": 0.2444,
            "hard_hit_edge": 1.0286,
            "whiff_edge": -0.2857,
            "bb_edge": 0.5,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.28
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "608718",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 31,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 31,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 83.683563781104,
              "release_spin_rate": 1995.2177753340202,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 31,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 83.683563781104,
                "release_spin_rate": 1995.2177753340202,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 83.6836,
              "release_spin_rate": 1995.2178,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.28,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -2.0,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.1037,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9912,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9794,
          "walk_factor": 0.96,
          "homer_factor": 0.9359,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.004,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "608718",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9912,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9912,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.96,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9359,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9794,
            "adjusted": 3
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 3,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 98,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -4; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -6 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "MISSED_SHUTDOWN",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Model missed a shutdown outing",
      "detail": "The pitcher allowed zero earned runs after a projection of 4 ER."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260926_ATL@MIA.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260926

20260926_ATL@MIA

home

Jack Ralston

True

5.0

1.1

-11

5/3

0/1

5/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.5,
      "WHIP": 1.25,
      "IP": 16.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 15,
      "role_avg_IP": 1.067,
      "recent_avg_IP": 1.133,
      "last_start_IP": 0.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.0458,
      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0039,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9907,
      "walk_factor": 1.0225,
      "homer_factor": 1.0409,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 24.6,
      "bb_percent": 11.6,
      "woba": 0.329,
      "xwoba": 0.315,
      "barrel_percent": 11.6,
      "hard_hit_percent": 39.5,
      "whiff_percent": 19.0
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 388,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 3.281,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.3962,
        "prior_weight": 0.6038
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "667652",
      "report_date": "20260926",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 15,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 4.0,
            "R": 4.0,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 3.0,
            "SO": 8.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 26.0,
            "Pitches": 103.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.0,
            "ER": 0.8,
            "R": 0.8,
            "H": 1.0,
            "BB": 0.6,
            "SO": 1.6,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 5.2,
            "Pitches": 20.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.3529,
            "WHIP": 1.4118,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.70588,
            "H_per_IP": 0.88235,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.52941,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.41176,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.52941
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 10.0,
            "ER": 7.0,
            "R": 7.0,
            "H": 8.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 13.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 47.0,
            "Pitches": 191.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.0,
            "ER": 0.7,
            "R": 0.7,
            "H": 0.8,
            "BB": 0.8,
            "SO": 1.3,
            "HR": 0.3,
            "BF": 4.7,
            "Pitches": 19.1
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.3,
            "WHIP": 1.6,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.7,
            "H_per_IP": 0.8,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.8,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.3,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.3
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 15,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 16.0,
            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 8.0,
            "H": 12.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 17.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 69.0,
            "Pitches": 278.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.0,
            "ER": 0.5333,
            "R": 0.5333,
            "H": 0.8,
            "BB": 0.5333,
            "SO": 1.1333,
            "HR": 0.2667,
            "BF": 4.6,
            "Pitches": 18.5333
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.5,
            "WHIP": 1.25,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.5,
            "H_per_IP": 0.75,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.5,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.0625,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.25
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 2.2,
        "predicted_ER": 1.61,
        "predicted_H": 2.59,
        "predicted_BB": 1.333,
        "predicted_SO": 3.04,
        "predicted_HR": 0.69,
        "predicted_ERA": 5.1537,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3955
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.6051,
      "form_weight": 0.3949,
      "form_reliability": 0.3962,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 3.281,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.3962,
        "prior_weight": 0.6038
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.2,
          "final": 3.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 1.61,
          "final": 2.4511,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 2.59,
          "final": 4.0483,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.333,
          "final": 0.5264,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 3.04,
          "final": 4.226,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 0.69,
          "final": 1.4827,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 5.1537,
          "final": 5.1537,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3955,
          "final": 1.3955,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 10.0,
        "ER": 7,
        "H": 8,
        "BB": 8,
        "SO": 13,
        "HR": 3,
        "ERA": 6.3,
        "WHIP": 1.6,
        "K9": 11.7,
        "HR9": 2.7,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": true
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-24T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0694968924919763,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 3.281,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.3962,
          "prior_weight": 0.6038
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 5,
          "predicted_BB": 0,
          "predicted_SO": 5,
          "predicted_HR": 2
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "667652",
      "player_name": "Jack Ralston",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "MIA",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.25,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_boost": {
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            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
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          },
          {
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          },
          {
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          },
          {
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            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
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          "biggest_boost": {
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            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "MIA",
        "games": 160,
        "wins": 79,
        "losses": 81,
        "win_pct": 0.4938,
        "runs_scored": 707.0,
        "runs_allowed": 701.0,
        "run_differential": 6.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0375,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4188,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3812,
        "offense_index": 0.9853,
        "defense_index": 1.0236,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1,
          "run_differential": 0.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0007
      },
      "opponent": {
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        "games": 160,
        "wins": 93,
        "losses": 67,
        "win_pct": 0.5813,
        "runs_scored": 731.0,
        "runs_allowed": 618.0,
        "run_differential": 113.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.7063,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5687,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8625,
        "offense_index": 1.0187,
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        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1,
          "run_differential": -3.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1557
      },
      "edges": {
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        "offense_edge": -0.0147,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0187,
        "defense_strength": 0.0236,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1611,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9937,
        "run_prevention": 1.0085,
        "strikeout": 0.9938
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "667652",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "667652",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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            "k_percent": 24.6,
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            "woba": 0.329,
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            "sweet_spot_percent": 23.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 11.6,
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            "avg_best_speed": 74.8589,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.2846,
            "whiff_percent": 19.0,
            "swing_percent": 37.8
          },
          "league_medians": {
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            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8982,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
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            "command_and_miss": -0.2679,
            "regression_edge": 0.4,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.1143,
            "barrel_edge": -0.9778,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.2286,
            "whiff_edge": -0.8857,
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            "pitch_design_score": -0.2697
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "667652",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 19,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 19,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 85.04813955680808,
              "release_spin_rate": 1401.1758449434726,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 19,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 85.04813955680808,
                "release_spin_rate": 1401.1758449434726,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 85.0481,
              "release_spin_rate": 1401.1758,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.2697,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.9264,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.0458,
          "sample_weight": 0.45,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0039,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9907,
          "walk_factor": 1.0225,
          "homer_factor": 1.0409,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.014,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "667652",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0018,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0018,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0101,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0184,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9958,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 20,
      "Pitches": 82,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least three innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -11 outs from the projected workload."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260926_ATL@MIA.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260926

20260926_CIN@TOR

away

Rhett Lowder

True

4.0

6.0

-4

6/3

1/2

2/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 6.007853403141361,
      "WHIP": 1.5549738219895288,
      "IP": 127.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 28,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.813,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.067,
      "last_start_IP": 3.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.6685,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0568,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9383,
      "walk_factor": 1.004,
      "homer_factor": 1.0938,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 17.4,
      "bb_percent": 9.3,
      "woba": 0.354,
      "xwoba": 0.355,
      "barrel_percent": 10.0,
      "hard_hit_percent": 39.0,
      "whiff_percent": 19.0
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 750,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 28.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8485,
        "prior_weight": 0.1515
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "695076",
      "report_date": "20260926",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 28,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 20.1,
            "ER": 24.0,
            "R": 25.0,
            "H": 30.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 18.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 103.0,
            "Pitches": 423.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.0,
            "ER": 4.8,
            "R": 5.0,
            "H": 6.0,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 3.6,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 20.6,
            "Pitches": 84.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 10.623,
            "WHIP": 2.0164,
            "ER_per_IP": 1.18033,
            "H_per_IP": 1.47541,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.54098,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.88525,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.14754
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 50.1,
            "ER": 37.0,
            "R": 39.0,
            "H": 60.0,
            "BB": 17.0,
            "SO": 36.0,
            "HR": 9.0,
            "BF": 228.0,
            "Pitches": 893.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 3.7,
            "R": 3.9,
            "H": 6.0,
            "BB": 1.7,
            "SO": 3.6,
            "HR": 0.9,
            "BF": 22.8,
            "Pitches": 89.3
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.6159,
            "WHIP": 1.5298,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.7351,
            "H_per_IP": 1.19205,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.33775,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.71523,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.17881
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 28,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 127.1,
            "ER": 85.0,
            "R": 88.0,
            "H": 144.0,
            "BB": 54.0,
            "SO": 101.0,
            "HR": 18.0,
            "BF": 581.0,
            "Pitches": 2217.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 3.0357,
            "R": 3.1429,
            "H": 5.1429,
            "BB": 1.9286,
            "SO": 3.6071,
            "HR": 0.6429,
            "BF": 20.75,
            "Pitches": 79.1786
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.0079,
            "WHIP": 1.555,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.66754,
            "H_per_IP": 1.13089,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.42408,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.79319,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.14136
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.1,
        "predicted_ER": 3.836,
        "predicted_H": 5.612,
        "predicted_BB": 1.946,
        "predicted_SO": 3.688,
        "predicted_HR": 0.696,
        "predicted_ERA": 7.7407,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.6946
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.414,
      "form_weight": 0.586,
      "form_reliability": 0.8485,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 28.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8485,
        "prior_weight": 0.1515
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.1,
          "form": 4.1,
          "final": 4.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 3.836,
          "final": 3.4899,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.612,
          "final": 5.3586,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.946,
          "final": 1.5543,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 3.688,
          "final": 2.9892,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.696,
          "final": 0.8219,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 7.7407,
          "final": 7.7407,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.6946,
          "final": 1.6946,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 50.1,
        "ER": 37,
        "H": 60,
        "BB": 17,
        "SO": 36,
        "HR": 9,
        "ERA": 6.615894039735099,
        "WHIP": 1.529801324503311,
        "K9": 6.437086092715232,
        "HR9": 1.609271523178808,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-20T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.2423756418796563,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 2.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 28.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8485,
          "prior_weight": 0.1515
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 5,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 2,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_quality_floor",
        "description": "Weak starter floor restored expected damage from recent form instead of assigning it to zero-inning bullpen rows.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.0,
          "predicted_ER": 4,
          "predicted_H": 6,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 2,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "695076",
      "player_name": "Rhett Lowder",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CIN",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 2.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 2.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.3333,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": -0.3333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0769,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.3333,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": -0.3333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0769,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "starter_quality_floor",
          "description": "Weak starter floor restored expected damage from recent form instead of assigning it to zero-inning bullpen rows.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 2.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.3333,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.2,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
            "boosted_metrics": 2,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 2,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.3333,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 4,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.0,
            "predicted_R": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 2.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.3333,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.2,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.3333,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": -0.3333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0769,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 3,
          "boosted_metrics": 2,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 3,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.3333,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.3333,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": -0.3333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0769,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "CIN",
        "games": 160,
        "wins": 74,
        "losses": 86,
        "win_pct": 0.4625,
        "runs_scored": 660.0,
        "runs_allowed": 820.0,
        "run_differential": -160.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.0,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.125,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.125,
        "offense_index": 0.9197,
        "defense_index": 0.8752,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7,
          "run_differential": -12.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1895
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "TOR",
        "games": 160,
        "wins": 78,
        "losses": 82,
        "win_pct": 0.4875,
        "runs_scored": 642.0,
        "runs_allowed": 688.0,
        "run_differential": -46.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2875,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0125,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3,
        "offense_index": 0.8946,
        "defense_index": 1.0431,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9,
          "run_differential": -15.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1159
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0736,
        "offense_edge": -0.0803,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.1054,
        "defense_strength": -0.1248,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0431,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9975,
        "run_prevention": 0.9993,
        "strikeout": 1.0062
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "695076",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "695076",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 530.0,
            "k_percent": 17.4,
            "bb_percent": 9.3,
            "woba": 0.354,
            "xwoba": 0.355,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 37.8,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 10.0,
            "hard_hit_percent": 39.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 80.257,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.3528,
            "whiff_percent": 19.0,
            "swing_percent": 44.0
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8982,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.8986,
            "command_and_miss": -0.6157,
            "regression_edge": -0.0286,
            "xwoba_edge": -1.2571,
            "barrel_edge": -0.6222,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.1571,
            "whiff_edge": -0.8857,
            "bb_edge": -0.05,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0296
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "695076",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 91,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 91,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.33470320650996,
              "release_spin_rate": 2351.7989851419666,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 91,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.33470320650996,
                "release_spin_rate": 2351.7989851419666,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.3347,
              "release_spin_rate": 2351.799,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0296,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.2118,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.6685,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0568,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9383,
          "walk_factor": 1.004,
          "homer_factor": 1.0938,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.001,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "695076",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0568,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0568,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.004,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0938,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9383,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.0,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 2,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 19,
      "Pitches": 72,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -4; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by +6 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "MISSED_SHUTDOWN",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Model missed a shutdown outing",
      "detail": "The pitcher allowed zero earned runs after a projection of 4 ER."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260926_CIN@TOR.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260926

20260926_CIN@TOR

home

Trey Yesavage

True

5.0

2.0

-9

-2

4/2

2/1

4/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.6689895470383274,
      "WHIP": 1.1289198606271778,
      "IP": 95.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 19,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.035,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.133,
      "last_start_IP": 2.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.3242,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9724,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0389,
      "walk_factor": 1.052,
      "homer_factor": 0.9398,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 23.9,
      "bb_percent": 11.7,
      "woba": 0.28,
      "xwoba": 0.284,
      "barrel_percent": 6.4,
      "hard_hit_percent": 33.9,
      "whiff_percent": 30.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 85,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 19.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7917,
        "prior_weight": 0.2083
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "702056",
      "report_date": "20260926",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 19,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 20.2,
            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 8.0,
            "H": 14.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 25.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 82.0,
            "Pitches": 352.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.0,
            "ER": 1.6,
            "R": 1.6,
            "H": 2.8,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 5.0,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 16.4,
            "Pitches": 70.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.4839,
            "WHIP": 1.0161,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.3871,
            "H_per_IP": 0.67742,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.33871,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.20968,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.19355
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 48.0,
            "ER": 19.0,
            "R": 20.0,
            "H": 27.0,
            "BB": 21.0,
            "SO": 47.0,
            "HR": 8.0,
            "BF": 195.0,
            "Pitches": 801.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 1.9,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 2.7,
            "BB": 2.1,
            "SO": 4.7,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 19.5,
            "Pitches": 80.1
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.5625,
            "WHIP": 1.0,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.39583,
            "H_per_IP": 0.5625,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.4375,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.97917,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.16667
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 19,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 95.2,
            "ER": 39.0,
            "R": 40.0,
            "H": 62.0,
            "BB": 46.0,
            "SO": 94.0,
            "HR": 11.0,
            "BF": 393.0,
            "Pitches": 1589.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.0526,
            "R": 2.1053,
            "H": 3.2632,
            "BB": 2.4211,
            "SO": 4.9474,
            "HR": 0.5789,
            "BF": 20.6842,
            "Pitches": 83.6316
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.669,
            "WHIP": 1.1289,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.40767,
            "H_per_IP": 0.64808,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.48084,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.98258,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11498
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.2,
        "predicted_ER": 1.908,
        "predicted_H": 3.207,
        "predicted_BB": 1.807,
        "predicted_SO": 4.792,
        "predicted_HR": 0.748,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.7721,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1017
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.438,
      "form_weight": 0.562,
      "form_reliability": 0.7917,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 19.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7917,
        "prior_weight": 0.2083
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.2,
          "final": 4.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 1.908,
          "final": 2.3863,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 3.207,
          "final": 3.5543,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.807,
          "final": 1.8915,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 4.792,
          "final": 4.0071,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.748,
          "final": 0.8584,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.7721,
          "final": 3.7721,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1017,
          "final": 1.1017,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 48.0,
        "ER": 19,
        "H": 27,
        "BB": 21,
        "SO": 47,
        "HR": 8,
        "ERA": 3.5625,
        "WHIP": 1.0,
        "K9": 8.8125,
        "HR9": 1.5,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 5,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-21T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.885623779296875,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 3.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 19.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7917,
          "prior_weight": 0.2083
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "702056",
      "player_name": "Trey Yesavage",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "TOR",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.3333,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 1,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.3333,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.3333,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 0,
          "better_metrics": 1,
          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.3333,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "TOR",
        "games": 160,
        "wins": 78,
        "losses": 82,
        "win_pct": 0.4875,
        "runs_scored": 642.0,
        "runs_allowed": 688.0,
        "run_differential": -46.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2875,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0125,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3,
        "offense_index": 0.8946,
        "defense_index": 1.0431,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9,
          "run_differential": -15.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1159
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "CIN",
        "games": 160,
        "wins": 74,
        "losses": 86,
        "win_pct": 0.4625,
        "runs_scored": 660.0,
        "runs_allowed": 820.0,
        "run_differential": -160.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.0,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.125,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.125,
        "offense_index": 0.9197,
        "defense_index": 0.8752,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7,
          "run_differential": -12.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1895
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0736,
        "offense_edge": -0.1054,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0803,
        "defense_strength": 0.0431,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.1248,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0074,
        "run_prevention": 0.9792,
        "strikeout": 1.0086
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "702056",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "702056",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 363.0,
            "k_percent": 23.9,
            "bb_percent": 11.7,
            "woba": 0.28,
            "xwoba": 0.284,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 36.7,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.4,
            "hard_hit_percent": 33.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.0872,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.3361,
            "whiff_percent": 30.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8982,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.4934,
            "command_and_miss": 0.2371,
            "regression_edge": -0.1143,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.7714,
            "barrel_edge": 0.1778,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.5714,
            "whiff_edge": 0.7,
            "bb_edge": -0.65,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0299
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "702056",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 74,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 74,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.33004145791904,
              "release_spin_rate": 2011.7222825919243,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 74,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.33004145791904,
                "release_spin_rate": 2011.7222825919243,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.33,
              "release_spin_rate": 2011.7223,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0299,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.2136,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.3242,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9724,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0389,
          "walk_factor": 1.052,
          "homer_factor": 0.9398,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.004,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "702056",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9724,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9724,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.052,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9398,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0389,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 95,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least three innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -9 outs from the projected workload."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260926_CIN@TOR.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260926

20260926_CLE@KC

away

Tanner Bibee

True

5.1

6.0

2/7

0/1

6/6

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "ERA": 4.351648351648351,
      "WHIP": 1.2197802197802199,
      "IP": 182.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 32,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.688,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.133,
      "last_start_IP": 4.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.171,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0145,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9714,
      "walk_factor": 0.962,
      "homer_factor": 1.0323,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 18.8,
      "bb_percent": 7.2,
      "woba": 0.315,
      "xwoba": 0.318,
      "barrel_percent": 8.2,
      "hard_hit_percent": 39.4,
      "whiff_percent": 23.4
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 108,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 32.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8649,
        "prior_weight": 0.1351
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "676440",
      "report_date": "20260926",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 32,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 25.2,
            "ER": 19.0,
            "R": 19.0,
            "H": 33.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 19.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 118.0,
            "Pitches": 435.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 3.8,
            "R": 3.8,
            "H": 6.6,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 3.8,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 23.6,
            "Pitches": 87.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.6623,
            "WHIP": 1.6753,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.74026,
            "H_per_IP": 1.28571,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.38961,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.74026,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11688
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 57.0,
            "ER": 34.0,
            "R": 36.0,
            "H": 57.0,
            "BB": 17.0,
            "SO": 45.0,
            "HR": 9.0,
            "BF": 245.0,
            "Pitches": 921.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 3.4,
            "R": 3.6,
            "H": 5.7,
            "BB": 1.7,
            "SO": 4.5,
            "HR": 0.9,
            "BF": 24.5,
            "Pitches": 92.1
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.3684,
            "WHIP": 1.2982,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.59649,
            "H_per_IP": 1.0,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.29825,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.78947,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15789
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 32,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 182.0,
            "ER": 88.0,
            "R": 92.0,
            "H": 168.0,
            "BB": 54.0,
            "SO": 142.0,
            "HR": 29.0,
            "BF": 755.0,
            "Pitches": 2874.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.75,
            "R": 2.875,
            "H": 5.25,
            "BB": 1.6875,
            "SO": 4.4375,
            "HR": 0.9062,
            "BF": 23.5938,
            "Pitches": 89.8125
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.3516,
            "WHIP": 1.2198,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.48352,
            "H_per_IP": 0.92308,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.2967,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.78022,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15934
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 3.334,
        "predicted_H": 5.875,
        "predicted_BB": 1.847,
        "predicted_SO": 4.228,
        "predicted_HR": 0.756,
        "predicted_ERA": 5.5953,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.4401
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4071,
      "form_weight": 0.5929,
      "form_reliability": 0.8649,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 32.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8649,
        "prior_weight": 0.1351
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.1,
          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 3.334,
          "final": 1.9768,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 5.875,
          "final": 4.2976,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.847,
          "final": 1.0951,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 4.228,
          "final": 4.9493,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.756,
          "final": 0.4482,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 5.5953,
          "final": 5.5953,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.4401,
          "final": 1.4401,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 57.0,
        "ER": 34,
        "H": 57,
        "BB": 17,
        "SO": 45,
        "HR": 9,
        "ERA": 5.368421052631579,
        "WHIP": 1.2982456140350878,
        "K9": 7.105263157894737,
        "HR9": 1.4210526315789473,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 5,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 2,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-19T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0962460380688046,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 0.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 6.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 32.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8649,
          "prior_weight": 0.1351
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "676440",
      "player_name": "Tanner Bibee",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CLE",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.1,
            "predicted_R": 0.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0438,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0438,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0437,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0437,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "CLE",
        "games": 160,
        "wins": 84,
        "losses": 76,
        "win_pct": 0.525,
        "runs_scored": 665.0,
        "runs_allowed": 659.0,
        "run_differential": 6.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0375,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1562,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1188,
        "offense_index": 0.9272,
        "defense_index": 1.0884,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 8,
          "losses": 2,
          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7,
          "run_differential": 13.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1309
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "KC",
        "games": 160,
        "wins": 68,
        "losses": 92,
        "win_pct": 0.425,
        "runs_scored": 682.0,
        "runs_allowed": 797.0,
        "run_differential": -115.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.7188,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.2625,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9813,
        "offense_index": 0.9509,
        "defense_index": 0.8999,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 2,
          "losses": 8,
          "win_pct": 0.2,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.9,
          "run_differential": -21.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.2569
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.3878,
        "offense_edge": -0.0728,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0491,
        "defense_strength": 0.0884,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.1001,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.6
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0201,
        "run_prevention": 0.9639,
        "strikeout": 1.0156
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "676440",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "676440",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 698.0,
            "k_percent": 18.8,
            "bb_percent": 7.2,
            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.318,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 35.1,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 39.4,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.5581,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8911,
            "whiff_percent": 23.4,
            "swing_percent": 47.1
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8982,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.1772,
            "command_and_miss": -0.2007,
            "regression_edge": -0.0857,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.2,
            "barrel_edge": -0.2222,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.2143,
            "whiff_edge": -0.2571,
            "bb_edge": 0.475,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.1382
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "676440",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 87,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 87,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 87.39659142983948,
              "release_spin_rate": 2309.0608700163434,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 87,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 87.39659142983948,
                "release_spin_rate": 2309.0608700163434,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.3966,
              "release_spin_rate": 2309.0609,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1382,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.987,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.171,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0145,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9714,
          "walk_factor": 0.962,
          "homer_factor": 1.0323,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.003,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "676440",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0145,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0145,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.962,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0323,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9714,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 0,
      "predicted_ER": 0,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 19,
      "Pitches": 85,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +3."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 5",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +5."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260926_CLE@KC.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260926

20260926_CLE@KC

home

Michael Wacha

True

6.1

-1

8/6

2/1

6/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.334476843910806,
      "WHIP": 1.1063464837049741,
      "IP": 194.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 31,
      "role_avg_IP": 6.269,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.333,
      "last_start_IP": 5.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.0071,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0006,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9669,
      "walk_factor": 0.952,
      "homer_factor": 0.9844,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 19.6,
      "bb_percent": 6.7,
      "woba": 0.3,
      "xwoba": 0.307,
      "barrel_percent": 7.0,
      "hard_hit_percent": 36.4,
      "whiff_percent": 21.8
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 14,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 31.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8611,
        "prior_weight": 0.1389
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "608379",
      "report_date": "20260926",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 31,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 31.2,
            "ER": 9.0,
            "R": 9.0,
            "H": 21.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 28.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 128.0,
            "Pitches": 504.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.1,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 1.8,
            "H": 4.2,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 5.6,
            "HR": 1.2,
            "BF": 25.6,
            "Pitches": 100.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.5579,
            "WHIP": 1.0105,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.28421,
            "H_per_IP": 0.66316,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.34737,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.88421,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.18947
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 62.0,
            "ER": 19.0,
            "R": 21.0,
            "H": 45.0,
            "BB": 15.0,
            "SO": 50.0,
            "HR": 12.0,
            "BF": 248.0,
            "Pitches": 968.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.1,
            "ER": 1.9,
            "R": 2.1,
            "H": 4.5,
            "BB": 1.5,
            "SO": 5.0,
            "HR": 1.2,
            "BF": 24.8,
            "Pitches": 96.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.7581,
            "WHIP": 0.9677,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.30645,
            "H_per_IP": 0.72581,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.24194,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.80645,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.19355
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 31,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 194.1,
            "ER": 72.0,
            "R": 76.0,
            "H": 162.0,
            "BB": 53.0,
            "SO": 154.0,
            "HR": 28.0,
            "BF": 786.0,
            "Pitches": 2938.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.1,
            "ER": 2.3226,
            "R": 2.4516,
            "H": 5.2258,
            "BB": 1.7097,
            "SO": 4.9677,
            "HR": 0.9032,
            "BF": 25.3548,
            "Pitches": 94.7742
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.3345,
            "WHIP": 1.1063,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.3705,
            "H_per_IP": 0.83362,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.27273,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.79245,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.14408
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.138,
        "predicted_H": 4.787,
        "predicted_BB": 1.946,
        "predicted_SO": 5.397,
        "predicted_HR": 1.122,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.0387,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.063
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4087,
      "form_weight": 0.5913,
      "form_reliability": 0.8611,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 31.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8611,
        "prior_weight": 0.1389
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.1,
          "form": 6.1,
          "final": 6.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.138,
          "final": 2.899,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 8.0,
          "form": 4.787,
          "final": 6.1001,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.946,
          "final": 1.9681,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 5.397,
          "final": 5.6434,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.122,
          "final": 0.6635,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.0387,
          "final": 3.0387,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.063,
          "final": 1.063,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 62.0,
        "ER": 19,
        "H": 45,
        "BB": 15,
        "SO": 50,
        "HR": 12,
        "ERA": 2.7580645161290325,
        "WHIP": 0.967741935483871,
        "K9": 7.258064516129032,
        "HR9": 1.7419354838709677,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 6,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-20T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.794318335748488,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 8.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 6.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 31.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8611,
          "prior_weight": 0.1389
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.1,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 8,
          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 6,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "608379",
      "player_name": "Michael Wacha",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "KC",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 8.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 8.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.1,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.25,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.3333,
              "after": 6.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0368,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 2,
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            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.25,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 8.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.1,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.1,
              "after": 6.1,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.25,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 8.0,
            "after": 8.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.3333,
            "after": 6.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0368,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 2,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 2,
          "better_metrics": 1,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.25,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "deboosted"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "KC",
        "games": 160,
        "wins": 68,
        "losses": 92,
        "win_pct": 0.425,
        "runs_scored": 682.0,
        "runs_allowed": 797.0,
        "run_differential": -115.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.7188,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.2625,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9813,
        "offense_index": 0.9509,
        "defense_index": 0.8999,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 2,
          "losses": 8,
          "win_pct": 0.2,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.9,
          "run_differential": -21.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.2569
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "CLE",
        "games": 160,
        "wins": 84,
        "losses": 76,
        "win_pct": 0.525,
        "runs_scored": 665.0,
        "runs_allowed": 659.0,
        "run_differential": 6.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0375,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1562,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1188,
        "offense_index": 0.9272,
        "defense_index": 1.0884,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 8,
          "losses": 2,
          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7,
          "run_differential": 13.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1309
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.3878,
        "offense_edge": -0.0491,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0728,
        "defense_strength": -0.1001,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0884,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.6
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9844,
        "run_prevention": 1.0178,
        "strikeout": 0.9942
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "608379",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "608379",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 708.0,
            "k_percent": 19.6,
            "bb_percent": 6.7,
            "woba": 0.3,
            "xwoba": 0.307,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.0,
            "hard_hit_percent": 36.4,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.1021,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.5667,
            "whiff_percent": 21.8,
            "swing_percent": 48.9
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8982,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.1408,
            "command_and_miss": -0.2043,
            "regression_edge": -0.2,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.1143,
            "barrel_edge": 0.0444,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.2143,
            "whiff_edge": -0.4857,
            "bb_edge": 0.6,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.1607
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "608379",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 97,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 97,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 86.9953545090726,
              "release_spin_rate": 1981.837302341622,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 97,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 86.9953545090726,
                "release_spin_rate": 1981.837302341622,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 86.9954,
              "release_spin_rate": 1981.8373,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1607,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.1475,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.0071,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0006,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9669,
          "walk_factor": 0.952,
          "homer_factor": 0.9844,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.007,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "608379",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0006,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0006,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.952,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9844,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9669,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.1,
      "predicted_H": 8,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 29,
      "Pitches": 113,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was +2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260926_CLE@KC.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260926

20260926_COL@CHW

away

Jose Quintana

True

4.0

3.0

-3

-2

7/2

4/2

6/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 5.4,
      "WHIP": 1.511111111111111,
      "IP": 45.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 10,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.5,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.133,
      "last_start_IP": 4.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.5107,
      "sample_weight": 0.716,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0434,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9378,
      "walk_factor": 0.9986,
      "homer_factor": 1.0436,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 11.1,
      "bb_percent": 9.0,
      "woba": 0.369,
      "xwoba": 0.359,
      "barrel_percent": 9.5,
      "hard_hit_percent": 34.2,
      "whiff_percent": 20.9
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 293,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.5625,
        "last_10": 0.43749999999999994
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 10.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.6667,
        "prior_weight": 0.3333
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "500779",
      "report_date": "20260926",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 10,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 20.2,
            "ER": 16.0,
            "R": 17.0,
            "H": 28.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 10.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 94.0,
            "Pitches": 344.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.0,
            "ER": 3.2,
            "R": 3.4,
            "H": 5.6,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 2.0,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 18.8,
            "Pitches": 68.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.9677,
            "WHIP": 1.6935,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.77419,
            "H_per_IP": 1.35484,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.33871,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.48387,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.14516
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 45.0,
            "ER": 27.0,
            "R": 30.0,
            "H": 50.0,
            "BB": 18.0,
            "SO": 22.0,
            "HR": 8.0,
            "BF": 199.0,
            "Pitches": 757.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.7,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 2.2,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 19.9,
            "Pitches": 75.7
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.4,
            "WHIP": 1.5111,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.6,
            "H_per_IP": 1.11111,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.4,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.48889,
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        },
        "season": {
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            "R": 30.0,
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          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
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            "R": 3.0,
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            "BB": 1.8,
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          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.4,
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            "ER_per_IP": 0.6,
            "H_per_IP": 1.11111,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.4,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.48889,
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
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        "predicted_BB": 1.594,
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        "predicted_HR": 0.671,
        "predicted_ERA": 5.7286,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.5301
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
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      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
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      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_size": 10.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.6667,
        "prior_weight": 0.3333
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      "applied_metrics": {
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          "form": 4.1,
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
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          "form": 2.741,
          "final": 3.8498,
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
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          "form": 4.994,
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        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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          "final": 2.7749,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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          "final": 4.3391,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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          "form": 0.671,
          "final": 0.3417,
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        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 5.7286,
          "final": 5.7286,
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
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          "form": 1.5301,
          "final": 1.5301,
          "source": "form_only"
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
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        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
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        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
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      "pitching": {
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        "ER": 27,
        "H": 50,
        "BB": 18,
        "SO": 22,
        "HR": 8,
        "ERA": 5.4,
        "WHIP": 1.511111111111111,
        "K9": 4.4,
        "HR9": 1.6,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 1,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 2,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-19T00:00:00"
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    "recent_form_boost": 1.1051203070746527,
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        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_BB": 4.0,
          "predicted_SO": 6.0,
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        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 10.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.6667,
          "prior_weight": 0.3333
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      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 5,
          "predicted_H": 7,
          "predicted_BB": 4,
          "predicted_SO": 6,
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "500779",
      "player_name": "Jose Quintana",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "COL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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          "weights": {},
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        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 7.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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              "percent_delta": null,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.3333,
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              "delta": -0.3333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0769,
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              "material": true
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          {
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            "percent_delta": -0.0769,
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          },
          {
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        ],
        "summary": {
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            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "COL",
        "games": 160,
        "wins": 57,
        "losses": 103,
        "win_pct": 0.3563,
        "runs_scored": 741.0,
        "runs_allowed": 934.0,
        "run_differential": -193.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.2063,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.6312,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.8375,
        "offense_index": 1.0331,
        "defense_index": 0.7679,
        "current_streak": "L5",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 2,
          "losses": 8,
          "win_pct": 0.2,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.1,
          "run_differential": -23.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.3752
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "CHW",
        "games": 160,
        "wins": 83,
        "losses": 77,
        "win_pct": 0.5188,
        "runs_scored": 766.0,
        "runs_allowed": 709.0,
        "run_differential": 57.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.3563,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.7875,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4313,
        "offense_index": 1.068,
        "defense_index": 1.0116,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
          "run_differential": 19.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0947
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.4699,
        "offense_edge": 0.0331,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.068,
        "defense_strength": -0.2321,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0116,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.4
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9715,
        "run_prevention": 1.0576,
        "strikeout": 0.9805
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "500779",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "500779",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 179.0,
            "k_percent": 11.1,
            "bb_percent": 9.0,
            "woba": 0.369,
            "xwoba": 0.359,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 35.4,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 9.5,
            "hard_hit_percent": 34.2,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.3903,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.4268,
            "whiff_percent": 20.9,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8982,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.8693,
            "command_and_miss": -0.9107,
            "regression_edge": 0.2857,
            "xwoba_edge": -1.3714,
            "barrel_edge": -0.5111,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.5286,
            "whiff_edge": -0.6143,
            "bb_edge": 0.025,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.2274
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "500779",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 72,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 72,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 85.80290690633534,
              "release_spin_rate": 2006.2347809412474,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 72,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 85.80290690633534,
                "release_spin_rate": 2006.2347809412474,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 85.8029,
              "release_spin_rate": 2006.2348,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.2274,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.6245,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.5107,
          "sample_weight": 0.716,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0434,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9378,
          "walk_factor": 0.9986,
          "homer_factor": 1.0436,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.01,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "500779",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0311,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0311,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.999,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0312,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9555,
            "adjusted": 2
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.0,
      "predicted_H": 7,
      "predicted_R": 5,
      "predicted_ER": 5,
      "predicted_BB": 4,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 87,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 5",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was -5."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was +2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260926_COL@CHW.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260926

20260926_COL@CHW

home

Davis Martin

True

5.0

0.2

-13

1/3

0/1

5/1

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "ERA": 3.8394495412844036,
      "WHIP": 1.2935779816513762,
      "IP": 145.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 28,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.185,
      "recent_avg_IP": 3.6,
      "last_start_IP": 4.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.2615,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0222,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9771,
      "walk_factor": 0.966,
      "homer_factor": 1.0427,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 19.8,
      "bb_percent": 7.4,
      "woba": 0.318,
      "xwoba": 0.33,
      "barrel_percent": 6.5,
      "hard_hit_percent": 44.7,
      "whiff_percent": 23.4
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 55,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8485,
        "prior_weight": 0.1515
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "663436",
      "report_date": "20260926",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 28,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
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          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 22.1,
            "ER": 5.0,
            "R": 7.0,
            "H": 18.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 13.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 91.0,
            "Pitches": 324.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 1.0,
            "R": 1.4,
            "H": 3.6,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 2.6,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 18.2,
            "Pitches": 64.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.0149,
            "WHIP": 1.1194,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.22388,
            "H_per_IP": 0.80597,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.31343,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.58209,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1791
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 45.0,
            "ER": 24.0,
            "R": 27.0,
            "H": 45.0,
            "BB": 14.0,
            "SO": 29.0,
            "HR": 8.0,
            "BF": 193.0,
            "Pitches": 717.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.7,
            "H": 4.5,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 2.9,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 19.3,
            "Pitches": 71.7
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.8,
            "WHIP": 1.3111,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.53333,
            "H_per_IP": 1.0,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.31111,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.64444,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.17778
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 28,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 145.1,
            "ER": 62.0,
            "R": 65.0,
            "H": 143.0,
            "BB": 45.0,
            "SO": 121.0,
            "HR": 14.0,
            "BF": 610.0,
            "Pitches": 2324.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.2143,
            "R": 2.3214,
            "H": 5.1071,
            "BB": 1.6071,
            "SO": 4.3214,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 21.7857,
            "Pitches": 83.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.8394,
            "WHIP": 1.2936,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.42661,
            "H_per_IP": 0.98394,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.30963,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.83257,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09633
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.2,
        "predicted_ER": 1.853,
        "predicted_H": 4.33,
        "predicted_BB": 1.515,
        "predicted_SO": 3.277,
        "predicted_HR": 0.753,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.5466,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2428
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.414,
      "form_weight": 0.586,
      "form_reliability": 0.8485,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_size": 28.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8485,
        "prior_weight": 0.1515
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
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          "form": 4.2,
          "final": 4.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.853,
          "final": 1.0858,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 4.33,
          "final": 2.9514,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.515,
          "final": 0.8878,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 3.277,
          "final": 3.9903,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.753,
          "final": 0.4413,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.5466,
          "final": 3.5466,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2428,
          "final": 1.2428,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 45.0,
        "ER": 24,
        "H": 45,
        "BB": 14,
        "SO": 29,
        "HR": 8,
        "ERA": 4.8,
        "WHIP": 1.3111111111111111,
        "K9": 5.8,
        "HR9": 1.6,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-20T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0326203070746527,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 0.0,
          "predicted_H": 1.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 28.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8485,
          "prior_weight": 0.1515
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "663436",
      "player_name": "Davis Martin",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CHW",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 1.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 1.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
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            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            "percent_delta": null,
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          {
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          },
          {
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        ],
        "summary": {
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
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        "games": 160,
        "wins": 83,
        "losses": 77,
        "win_pct": 0.5188,
        "runs_scored": 766.0,
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        "run_differential_per_game": 0.3563,
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        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4313,
        "offense_index": 1.068,
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        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
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          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
          "run_differential": 19.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0947
      },
      "opponent": {
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        "losses": 103,
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        "runs_scored": 741.0,
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        "run_differential": -193.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.2063,
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        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.8375,
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          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.1,
          "run_differential": -23.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.3752
      },
      "edges": {
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        "offense_edge": 0.068,
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      "player_factors": {
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        "strikeout": 1.0114
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "663436",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "663436",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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            "woba": 0.318,
            "xwoba": 0.33,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.1,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.5,
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            "avg_best_speed": 79.6543,
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            "whiff_percent": 23.4,
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            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
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            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
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            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
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          "components": {
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            "hard_hit_edge": -0.9714,
            "whiff_edge": -0.2571,
            "bb_edge": 0.425,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0085
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "663436",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 51,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 51,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
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              "release_spin_rate": 2480.5211487507763,
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              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
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              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
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            },
            "pitch_mix": [
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                "pitches": 51,
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                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
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                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.0162,
              "release_spin_rate": 2480.5211,
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              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
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            "components": {
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              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
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              "velocity_edge": 0.0608,
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              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
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          "sample_weight": 1.0,
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
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          "predicted_H": {
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          "predicted_BB": {
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          "predicted_HR": {
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          "predicted_SO": {
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      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
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      "predicted_ER": 0,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 16,
      "Pitches": 78,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +2."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least three innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -13 outs from the projected workload."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260926_COL@CHW.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260926

20260926_HOU@OAK

away

Hayden Wesneski

True

5.1

7.0

-2

2/6

1/1

3/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.5,
      "WHIP": 1.1481481481481481,
      "IP": 54.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 10,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.4,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.267,
      "last_start_IP": 5.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0206,
      "sample_weight": 0.784,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9982,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9736,
      "walk_factor": 0.9937,
      "homer_factor": 0.9842,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 18.7,
      "bb_percent": 8.7,
      "woba": 0.288,
      "xwoba": 0.304,
      "barrel_percent": 5.7,
      "hard_hit_percent": 40.1,
      "whiff_percent": 22.6
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 224,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.5625,
        "last_10": 0.43749999999999994
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 10.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.6667,
        "prior_weight": 0.3333
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "669713",
      "report_date": "20260926",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 10,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 26.1,
            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 12.0,
            "H": 19.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 19.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 106.0,
            "Pitches": 404.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 1.6,
            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 3.8,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 3.8,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 21.2,
            "Pitches": 80.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.7342,
            "WHIP": 1.0633,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.3038,
            "H_per_IP": 0.72152,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.34177,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.72152,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07595
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 54.0,
            "ER": 21.0,
            "R": 25.0,
            "H": 43.0,
            "BB": 19.0,
            "SO": 41.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 219.0,
            "Pitches": 816.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.1,
            "R": 2.5,
            "H": 4.3,
            "BB": 1.9,
            "SO": 4.1,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 21.9,
            "Pitches": 81.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.5,
            "WHIP": 1.1481,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.38889,
            "H_per_IP": 0.7963,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.35185,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.75926,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07407
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 54.0,
            "ER": 21.0,
            "R": 25.0,
            "H": 43.0,
            "BB": 19.0,
            "SO": 41.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 219.0,
            "Pitches": 816.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.1,
            "R": 2.5,
            "H": 4.3,
            "BB": 1.9,
            "SO": 4.1,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 21.9,
            "Pitches": 81.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.5,
            "WHIP": 1.1481,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.38889,
            "H_per_IP": 0.7963,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.35185,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.75926,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07407
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.126,
        "predicted_H": 4.43,
        "predicted_BB": 1.906,
        "predicted_SO": 4.288,
        "predicted_HR": 0.531,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.5868,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1879
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4908,
      "form_weight": 0.5092,
      "form_reliability": 0.6667,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 10.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.6667,
        "prior_weight": 0.3333
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.1,
          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.126,
          "final": 2.555,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 4.43,
          "final": 3.2373,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.906,
          "final": 1.4613,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 4.288,
          "final": 3.6558,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.531,
          "final": 0.2704,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.5868,
          "final": 3.5868,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1879,
          "final": 1.1879,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 54.0,
        "ER": 21,
        "H": 43,
        "BB": 19,
        "SO": 41,
        "HR": 4,
        "ERA": 3.5000000000000004,
        "WHIP": 1.1481481481481484,
        "K9": 6.833333333333334,
        "HR9": 0.6666666666666667,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 4,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-19T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8822962330005788,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 3.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 10.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.6667,
          "prior_weight": 0.3333
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "669713",
      "player_name": "Hayden Wesneski",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "HOU",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.1,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0438,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0438,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0437,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
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          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
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            "delta": -0.2333,
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            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "HOU",
        "games": 160,
        "wins": 79,
        "losses": 81,
        "win_pct": 0.4938,
        "runs_scored": 712.0,
        "runs_allowed": 764.0,
        "run_differential": -52.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.325,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.45,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.775,
        "offense_index": 0.9917,
        "defense_index": 0.9397,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2,
          "run_differential": 1.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0801
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "OAK",
        "games": 160,
        "wins": 64,
        "losses": 96,
        "win_pct": 0.4,
        "runs_scored": 697.0,
        "runs_allowed": 915.0,
        "run_differential": -218.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.3625,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3563,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.7188,
        "offense_index": 0.9708,
        "defense_index": 0.7846,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.6,
          "run_differential": -15.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.322
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.2419,
        "offense_edge": -0.0083,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0292,
        "defense_strength": -0.0603,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.2154,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.009,
        "run_prevention": 0.9893,
        "strikeout": 1.0096
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "669713",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "669713",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 196.0,
            "k_percent": 18.7,
            "bb_percent": 8.7,
            "woba": 0.288,
            "xwoba": 0.304,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 32.5,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 5.7,
            "hard_hit_percent": 40.1,
            "avg_best_speed": 75.4929,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.0037,
            "whiff_percent": 22.6,
            "swing_percent": 48.8
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8982,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.2924,
            "command_and_miss": -0.3221,
            "regression_edge": -0.4571,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.2,
            "barrel_edge": 0.3333,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.3143,
            "whiff_edge": -0.3714,
            "bb_edge": 0.1,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0994
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "669713",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 83,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 83,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.08890165876376,
              "release_spin_rate": 2309.2290178570775,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 83,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.08890165876376,
                "release_spin_rate": 2309.2290178570775,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.0889,
              "release_spin_rate": 2309.229,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0994,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.7101,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0206,
          "sample_weight": 0.784,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9982,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9736,
          "walk_factor": 0.9937,
          "homer_factor": 0.9842,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.016,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "669713",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9986,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9986,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9951,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9876,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9793,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 3,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 19,
      "Pitches": 82,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +4."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260926_HOU@OAK.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260926

20260926_HOU@OAK

home

Jack Perkins

True

4.2

5.0

5/5

2/3

3/9

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 5.896551724137931,
      "WHIP": 1.4482758620689655,
      "IP": 116.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 36,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.771,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.133,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0739,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9937,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0251,
      "walk_factor": 1.002,
      "homer_factor": 1.0157,
      "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 25.2,
      "bb_percent": 9.2,
      "woba": 0.347,
      "xwoba": 0.309,
      "barrel_percent": 8.5,
      "hard_hit_percent": 36.9,
      "whiff_percent": 26.4
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 822,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 36.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.878,
        "prior_weight": 0.122
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "678022",
      "report_date": "20260926",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 36,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 25.2,
            "ER": 9.0,
            "R": 11.0,
            "H": 24.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 27.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 108.0,
            "Pitches": 414.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 2.2,
            "H": 4.8,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 5.4,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 21.6,
            "Pitches": 82.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.1558,
            "WHIP": 1.3247,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.35065,
            "H_per_IP": 0.93506,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.38961,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.05195,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11688
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 47.2,
            "ER": 27.0,
            "R": 32.0,
            "H": 54.0,
            "BB": 21.0,
            "SO": 51.0,
            "HR": 9.0,
            "BF": 213.0,
            "Pitches": 816.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.7,
            "R": 3.2,
            "H": 5.4,
            "BB": 2.1,
            "SO": 5.1,
            "HR": 0.9,
            "BF": 21.3,
            "Pitches": 81.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.0979,
            "WHIP": 1.5734,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.56643,
            "H_per_IP": 1.13287,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.44056,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.06993,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.18881
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 36,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 116.0,
            "ER": 76.0,
            "R": 83.0,
            "H": 120.0,
            "BB": 48.0,
            "SO": 131.0,
            "HR": 20.0,
            "BF": 519.0,
            "Pitches": 2007.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.1,
            "ER": 2.1111,
            "R": 2.3056,
            "H": 3.3333,
            "BB": 1.3333,
            "SO": 3.6389,
            "HR": 0.5556,
            "BF": 14.4167,
            "Pitches": 55.75
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.8966,
            "WHIP": 1.4483,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.65517,
            "H_per_IP": 1.03448,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.41379,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.12931,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.17241
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.258,
        "predicted_H": 4.693,
        "predicted_BB": 1.88,
        "predicted_SO": 4.867,
        "predicted_HR": 0.703,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.4128,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.4275
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4015,
      "form_weight": 0.5985,
      "form_reliability": 0.878,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 36.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.878,
        "prior_weight": 0.122
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.2,
          "final": 4.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.258,
          "final": 2.1544,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 4.693,
          "final": 4.0132,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.88,
          "final": 1.9282,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 4.867,
          "final": 4.1173,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.703,
          "final": 0.8223,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.4128,
          "final": 4.4128,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.4275,
          "final": 1.4275,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 47.2,
        "ER": 27,
        "H": 54,
        "BB": 21,
        "SO": 51,
        "HR": 9,
        "ERA": 5.097902097902098,
        "WHIP": 1.5734265734265735,
        "K9": 9.62937062937063,
        "HR9": 1.6993006993006994,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 2,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": true
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 2,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-20T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0726921796465254,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 3.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 36.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.878,
          "prior_weight": 0.122
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.2,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 3,
          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 3,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_quality_floor",
        "description": "Weak starter floor restored expected damage from recent form instead of assigning it to zero-inning bullpen rows.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.2,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 5,
          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 3,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "678022",
      "player_name": "Jack Perkins",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "OAK",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.2,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": -0.8,
              "percent_delta": -0.16,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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              "projection_effect": "worse",
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            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "starter_quality_floor",
          "description": "Weak starter floor restored expected damage from recent form instead of assigning it to zero-inning bullpen rows.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
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              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.5,
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              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
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              "delta": 2.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.6667,
              "direction": "boost",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.2,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
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            "biggest_boost": {
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              "percent_delta": 0.6667,
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              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 4,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.2,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
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              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.2,
              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            "after": 4.2,
            "delta": -0.8,
            "percent_delta": -0.16,
            "direction": "deboost",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 3.0,
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        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 3,
          "boosted_metrics": 2,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 3,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 2.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.6667,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 4.2,
            "delta": -0.8,
            "percent_delta": -0.16,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "OAK",
        "games": 160,
        "wins": 64,
        "losses": 96,
        "win_pct": 0.4,
        "runs_scored": 697.0,
        "runs_allowed": 915.0,
        "run_differential": -218.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.3625,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3563,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.7188,
        "offense_index": 0.9708,
        "defense_index": 0.7846,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.6,
          "run_differential": -15.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.322
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "HOU",
        "games": 160,
        "wins": 79,
        "losses": 81,
        "win_pct": 0.4938,
        "runs_scored": 712.0,
        "runs_allowed": 764.0,
        "run_differential": -52.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.325,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.45,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.775,
        "offense_index": 0.9917,
        "defense_index": 0.9397,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2,
          "run_differential": 1.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0801
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.2419,
        "offense_edge": -0.0292,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0083,
        "defense_strength": -0.2154,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0603,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9842,
        "run_prevention": 1.0323,
        "strikeout": 0.9934
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "678022",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "678022",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 462.0,
            "k_percent": 25.2,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.347,
            "xwoba": 0.309,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 35.2,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.5,
            "hard_hit_percent": 36.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.2613,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.5291,
            "whiff_percent": 26.4,
            "swing_percent": 48.0
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8982,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.1943,
            "command_and_miss": 0.2607,
            "regression_edge": 1.0857,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.0571,
            "barrel_edge": -0.2889,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.1429,
            "whiff_edge": 0.1714,
            "bb_edge": -0.025,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0793
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "678022",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 87,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 87,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 91.28030678673174,
              "release_spin_rate": 2236.0689533094624,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 87,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 91.28030678673174,
                "release_spin_rate": 2236.0689533094624,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 91.2803,
              "release_spin_rate": 2236.069,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0793,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.5665,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0739,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9937,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0251,
          "walk_factor": 1.002,
          "homer_factor": 1.0157,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.038,
          "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "678022",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9937,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9937,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.002,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0157,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0251,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.2,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 3,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 94,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +3."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was +2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260926_HOU@OAK.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260926

20260926_LAA@SEA

away

Ryan Johnson

True

5.1

5.0

-1

5/7

0/4

4/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.926315789473684,
      "WHIP": 1.3473684210526315,
      "IP": 95.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 21,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.0,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.533,
      "last_start_IP": 4.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.3272,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0278,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9709,
      "walk_factor": 1.008,
      "homer_factor": 1.0559,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 18.5,
      "bb_percent": 9.5,
      "woba": 0.332,
      "xwoba": 0.337,
      "barrel_percent": 9.7,
      "hard_hit_percent": 36.0,
      "whiff_percent": 23.6
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 434,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 21.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8077,
        "prior_weight": 0.1923
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "696270",
      "report_date": "20260926",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 21,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 27.2,
            "ER": 9.0,
            "R": 9.0,
            "H": 24.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 26.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 115.0,
            "Pitches": 461.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 1.8,
            "H": 4.8,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 5.2,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 23.0,
            "Pitches": 92.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.9277,
            "WHIP": 1.1566,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.3253,
            "H_per_IP": 0.86747,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.28916,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.93976,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07229
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 53.1,
            "ER": 18.0,
            "R": 18.0,
            "H": 42.0,
            "BB": 22.0,
            "SO": 42.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 221.0,
            "Pitches": 884.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 1.8,
            "H": 4.2,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 4.2,
            "HR": 0.7,
            "BF": 22.1,
            "Pitches": 88.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.0375,
            "WHIP": 1.2,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.3375,
            "H_per_IP": 0.7875,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.4125,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.7875,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13125
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 21,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 95.0,
            "ER": 52.0,
            "R": 57.0,
            "H": 89.0,
            "BB": 39.0,
            "SO": 76.0,
            "HR": 18.0,
            "BF": 410.0,
            "Pitches": 1636.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.4762,
            "R": 2.7143,
            "H": 4.2381,
            "BB": 1.8571,
            "SO": 3.619,
            "HR": 0.8571,
            "BF": 19.5238,
            "Pitches": 77.9048
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.9263,
            "WHIP": 1.3474,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.54737,
            "H_per_IP": 0.93684,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.41053,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.8,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.18947
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.143,
        "predicted_H": 4.696,
        "predicted_BB": 1.93,
        "predicted_SO": 4.67,
        "predicted_HR": 0.655,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.6074,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2393
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4312,
      "form_weight": 0.5688,
      "form_reliability": 0.8077,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 21.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8077,
        "prior_weight": 0.1923
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.1,
          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.143,
          "final": 1.6501,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.696,
          "final": 4.8271,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.93,
          "final": 1.0977,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 4.67,
          "final": 4.3811,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.655,
          "final": 0.3725,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.6074,
          "final": 3.6074,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2393,
          "final": 1.2393,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 53.1,
        "ER": 18,
        "H": 42,
        "BB": 22,
        "SO": 42,
        "HR": 7,
        "ERA": 3.0375,
        "WHIP": 1.2000000000000002,
        "K9": 7.0875,
        "HR9": 1.1812500000000001,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 4,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-20T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.831561279296875,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 21.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8077,
          "prior_weight": 0.1923
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "696270",
      "player_name": "Ryan Johnson",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "LAA",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.1,
            "predicted_R": 1.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0438,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0438,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0437,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0437,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "LAA",
        "games": 160,
        "wins": 62,
        "losses": 98,
        "win_pct": 0.3875,
        "runs_scored": 648.0,
        "runs_allowed": 737.0,
        "run_differential": -89.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.5563,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.05,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6063,
        "offense_index": 0.9026,
        "defense_index": 0.9741,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.3,
          "run_differential": -15.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1638
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "SEA",
        "games": 160,
        "wins": 74,
        "losses": 86,
        "win_pct": 0.4625,
        "runs_scored": 649.0,
        "runs_allowed": 715.0,
        "run_differential": -66.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.4125,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0563,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4688,
        "offense_index": 0.904,
        "defense_index": 1.0041,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
          "run_differential": -8.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1174
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0464,
        "offense_edge": -0.0974,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.096,
        "defense_strength": -0.0259,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0041,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0012,
        "run_prevention": 0.9895,
        "strikeout": 1.0063
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "696270",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "696270",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 362.0,
            "k_percent": 18.5,
            "bb_percent": 9.5,
            "woba": 0.332,
            "xwoba": 0.337,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 32.5,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 9.7,
            "hard_hit_percent": 36.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 75.8902,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.5365,
            "whiff_percent": 23.6,
            "swing_percent": 46.5
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8982,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.3857,
            "command_and_miss": -0.325,
            "regression_edge": -0.1429,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.7429,
            "barrel_edge": -0.5556,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.2714,
            "whiff_edge": -0.2286,
            "bb_edge": -0.1,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.1556
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "696270",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 92,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 92,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 87.08612475150535,
              "release_spin_rate": 2294.5542445027313,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 92,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 87.08612475150535,
                "release_spin_rate": 2294.5542445027313,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.0861,
              "release_spin_rate": 2294.5542,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1556,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.1112,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.3272,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0278,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9709,
          "walk_factor": 1.008,
          "homer_factor": 1.0559,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.005,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "696270",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0278,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0278,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.008,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0559,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9709,
            "adjusted": 5
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 94,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +3."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was +4."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260926_LAA@SEA.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260926

20260926_LAA@SEA

home

Kade Anderson

True

5.1

3.1

-6

-1

2/4

2/1

8/4

Last 10 before this game (6 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
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      "WHIP": 1.2061855670103092,
      "IP": 32.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 6,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.389,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.333,
      "last_start_IP": 7.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.0083,
      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0007,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9941,
      "walk_factor": 0.973,
      "homer_factor": 1.0192,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 21.4,
      "bb_percent": 6.1,
      "woba": 0.308,
      "xwoba": 0.308,
      "barrel_percent": 8.4,
      "hard_hit_percent": 42.1,
      "whiff_percent": 23.5
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 278,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.8653846153846154,
        "last_10": 0.1346153846153846
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      "shrinkage": {
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        "sample_size": 6.0,
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        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.5455,
        "prior_weight": 0.4545
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "807739",
      "report_date": "20260926",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 6,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 26.2,
            "ER": 12.0,
            "R": 12.0,
            "H": 26.0,
            "BB": 6.0,
            "SO": 23.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 109.0,
            "Pitches": 401.0
          },
          "per_game": {
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            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 5.2,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 4.6,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 21.8,
            "Pitches": 80.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.05,
            "WHIP": 1.2,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.45,
            "H_per_IP": 0.975,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.225,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.8625,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.075
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 6,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 32.1,
            "ER": 15.0,
            "R": 15.0,
            "H": 31.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 28.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 131.0,
            "Pitches": 482.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.5,
            "R": 2.5,
            "H": 5.1667,
            "BB": 1.3333,
            "SO": 4.6667,
            "HR": 0.6667,
            "BF": 21.8333,
            "Pitches": 80.3333
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.1753,
            "WHIP": 1.2062,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.46392,
            "H_per_IP": 0.95876,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.24742,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.86598,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12371
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 6,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 32.1,
            "ER": 15.0,
            "R": 15.0,
            "H": 31.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 28.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 131.0,
            "Pitches": 482.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.5,
            "R": 2.5,
            "H": 5.1667,
            "BB": 1.3333,
            "SO": 4.6667,
            "HR": 0.6667,
            "BF": 21.8333,
            "Pitches": 80.3333
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.1753,
            "WHIP": 1.2062,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.46392,
            "H_per_IP": 0.95876,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.24742,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.86598,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12371
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.56,
        "predicted_H": 5.214,
        "predicted_BB": 1.583,
        "predicted_SO": 4.779,
        "predicted_HR": 0.598,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.3192,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2744
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.542,
      "form_weight": 0.458,
      "form_reliability": 0.5455,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_size": 6.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.5455,
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      "applied_metrics": {
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          "final": 5.1,
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.56,
          "final": 1.7144,
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 5.214,
          "final": 3.4719,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.583,
          "final": 1.809,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 8.0,
          "form": 4.779,
          "final": 6.5249,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.598,
          "final": 0.2739,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.3192,
          "final": 4.3192,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2744,
          "final": 1.2744,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 32.1,
        "ER": 15,
        "H": 31,
        "BB": 8,
        "SO": 28,
        "HR": 4,
        "ERA": 4.175257731958763,
        "WHIP": 1.2061855670103094,
        "K9": 7.7938144329896915,
        "HR9": 1.1134020618556704,
        "games_pitched": 6,
        "quality_starts": 2,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 6,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 6,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-20T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9597136633174936,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 8.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 6.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.5455,
          "prior_weight": 0.4545
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "807739",
      "player_name": "Kade Anderson",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "SEA",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.1,
            "predicted_R": 1.0,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0438,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0438,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0437,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 8.0,
            "after": 8.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0437,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "SEA",
        "games": 160,
        "wins": 74,
        "losses": 86,
        "win_pct": 0.4625,
        "runs_scored": 649.0,
        "runs_allowed": 715.0,
        "run_differential": -66.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.4125,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0563,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4688,
        "offense_index": 0.904,
        "defense_index": 1.0041,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
          "run_differential": -8.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1174
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "LAA",
        "games": 160,
        "wins": 62,
        "losses": 98,
        "win_pct": 0.3875,
        "runs_scored": 648.0,
        "runs_allowed": 737.0,
        "run_differential": -89.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.5563,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.05,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6063,
        "offense_index": 0.9026,
        "defense_index": 0.9741,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.3,
          "run_differential": -15.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1638
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0464,
        "offense_edge": -0.096,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0974,
        "defense_strength": 0.0041,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0259,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0059,
        "run_prevention": 0.9817,
        "strikeout": 1.0092
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "807739",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "807739",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 107.0,
            "k_percent": 21.4,
            "bb_percent": 6.1,
            "woba": 0.308,
            "xwoba": 0.308,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 36.8,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.4,
            "hard_hit_percent": 42.1,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.2477,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.0143,
            "whiff_percent": 23.5,
            "swing_percent": 54.8
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8982,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.0367,
            "command_and_miss": 0.0264,
            "regression_edge": 0.0,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.0857,
            "barrel_edge": -0.2667,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.6,
            "whiff_edge": -0.2429,
            "bb_edge": 0.75,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0604
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "807739",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 79,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 79,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.78642537896546,
              "release_spin_rate": 2094.986479780848,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 79,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.78642537896546,
                "release_spin_rate": 2094.986479780848,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.7864,
              "release_spin_rate": 2094.9865,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0604,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.4311,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.0083,
          "sample_weight": 0.45,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0007,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9941,
          "walk_factor": 0.973,
          "homer_factor": 1.0192,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.0,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "807739",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0003,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0003,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9879,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0086,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9973,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 8,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 20,
      "Pitches": 93,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 6 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -6 outs from the projected workload."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260926_LAA@SEA.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260926

20260926_LAD@SF

away

Blake Snell

True

5.2

4.0

-5

1/5

0/0

5/3

Last 10 before this game (8 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 1.8620689655172415,
      "WHIP": 1.0862068965517242,
      "IP": 38.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 8,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.833,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.733,
      "last_start_IP": 1.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.8549,
      "sample_weight": 0.612,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9273,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0762,
      "walk_factor": 1.0135,
      "homer_factor": 0.8289,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 33.1,
      "bb_percent": 10.2,
      "woba": 0.237,
      "xwoba": 0.228,
      "barrel_percent": 1.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 15.9,
      "whiff_percent": 35.9
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 122,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.0,
      "season_IP": 38.2,
      "season_ERA": 1.862,
      "season_WHIP": 1.086,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.6818181818181818,
        "last_10": 0.3181818181818182
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 8.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.6154,
        "prior_weight": 0.3846
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "605483",
      "report_date": "20260926",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 8,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 23.2,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 15.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 32.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 94.0,
            "Pitches": 413.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 0.4,
            "R": 0.4,
            "H": 3.0,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 6.4,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 18.8,
            "Pitches": 82.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 0.7606,
            "WHIP": 1.0563,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.08451,
            "H_per_IP": 0.6338,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.42254,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.35211,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 8,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 38.2,
            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 9.0,
            "H": 26.0,
            "BB": 16.0,
            "SO": 52.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 157.0,
            "Pitches": 664.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 1.0,
            "R": 1.125,
            "H": 3.25,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 6.5,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 19.625,
            "Pitches": 83.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.8621,
            "WHIP": 1.0862,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.2069,
            "H_per_IP": 0.67241,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.41379,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.34483,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 8,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 38.2,
            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 9.0,
            "H": 26.0,
            "BB": 16.0,
            "SO": 52.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 157.0,
            "Pitches": 664.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 1.0,
            "R": 1.125,
            "H": 3.25,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 6.5,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 19.625,
            "Pitches": 83.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.8621,
            "WHIP": 1.0862,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.2069,
            "H_per_IP": 0.67241,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.41379,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.34483,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.2,
        "predicted_ER": 1.311,
        "predicted_H": 3.72,
        "predicted_BB": 1.939,
        "predicted_SO": 5.709,
        "predicted_HR": 0.274,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.4614,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.18
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.5125,
      "form_weight": 0.4875,
      "form_reliability": 0.6154,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 8.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.6154,
        "prior_weight": 0.3846
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.2,
          "final": 5.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.311,
          "final": 0.6391,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 3.72,
          "final": 2.326,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.939,
          "final": 0.9453,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 5.709,
          "final": 4.3207,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.274,
          "final": 0.1336,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.4614,
          "final": 2.4614,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.18,
          "final": 1.18,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 38.2,
        "ER": 8,
        "H": 26,
        "BB": 16,
        "SO": 52,
        "HR": 0,
        "ERA": 1.862068965517241,
        "WHIP": 1.086206896551724,
        "K9": 12.103448275862068,
        "HR9": 0.0,
        "games_pitched": 8,
        "quality_starts": 4,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 8,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 8,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-16T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.6964804603313578,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 0.0,
          "predicted_H": 1.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 3.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 8.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.6154,
          "prior_weight": 0.3846
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.2,
          "predicted_ER": 0,
          "predicted_H": 1,
          "predicted_BB": 0,
          "predicted_SO": 6,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "605483",
      "player_name": "Blake Snell",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "LAD",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "to_step": "current_json_final",
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
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        "win_pct": 0.6125,
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          "run_differential": 23.0
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      "opponent": {
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        "run_differential_per_game": -0.5375,
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      "player_factors": {
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        "strikeout": 1.0218
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
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        "pitcher_id": "605483",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "605483",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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          "league_medians": {
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          "components": {
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "605483",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 97,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 97,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.58527815729902,
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              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
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              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
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            "pitch_mix": [
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                "pitches": 97,
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                "spin_axis": null,
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                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
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                "release_extension": 0.0,
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            ],
            "summary": {
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            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0156,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
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              "velocity_edge": -0.1116,
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              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.8549,
          "sample_weight": 0.612,
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          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_id": "605483",
            "espn_rank": null
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
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            "factor": 0.9555,
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          "predicted_H": {
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            "adjusted": 3
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          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0083,
            "adjusted": 2
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          "predicted_HR": {
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          "predicted_SO": {
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            "factor": 1.0466,
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      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 1,
      "predicted_R": 0,
      "predicted_ER": 0,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 18,
      "Pitches": 74,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 8 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +4."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260926_LAD@SF.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260926

20260926_LAD@SF

home

Matt Wilkinson

True

4.2

3.0

-5

3/1

1/1

6/2

Last 10 before this game (7 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
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      "barrel_percent": 6.5,
      "hard_hit_percent": 42.9,
      "whiff_percent": 18.8
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    "espn_rank": {
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      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
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      "role": "pitcher",
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      "player_id": "683363",
      "report_date": "20260926",
      "season_year": 2026,
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      "reference_playing_time": 4.333,
      "windows": {
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          "totals": {
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            "ER": 6.0,
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          "per_game": {
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          },
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            "H_per_IP": 0.68421,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.21053,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.84211,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15789
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        },
        "last_10": {
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          "totals": {
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            "BB": 4.0,
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          },
          "per_game": {
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            "SO_per_IP": 0.72973,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.16216
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        },
        "season": {
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          },
          "per_game": {
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      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
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        "predicted_ER": 1.62,
        "predicted_H": 3.282,
        "predicted_BB": 1.082,
        "predicted_SO": 3.414,
        "predicted_HR": 0.61,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.6955,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1062
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    },
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      "adaptive_parameters": {
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        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 7.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.5833,
        "prior_weight": 0.4167
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.1,
          "form": 4.0,
          "final": 4.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.62,
          "final": 1.2938,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 3.282,
          "final": 3.1337,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.082,
          "final": 1.0389,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 3.414,
          "final": 4.7744,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.61,
          "final": 0.2891,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.6955,
          "final": 3.6955,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1062,
          "final": 1.1062,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 24.2,
        "ER": 10,
        "H": 21,
        "BB": 4,
        "SO": 18,
        "HR": 4,
        "ERA": 3.6486486486486487,
        "WHIP": 1.0135135135135134,
        "K9": 6.5675675675675675,
        "HR9": 1.4594594594594594,
        "games_pitched": 7,
        "quality_starts": 1,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 7,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 7,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-20T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9142457500696182,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 6.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 7.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.5833,
          "prior_weight": 0.4167
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "683363",
      "player_name": "Matt Wilkinson",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "SF",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.3333,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "better_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.2,
            "predicted_R": 1.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.3333,
              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": -0.1333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0308,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.3333,
              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": -0.1333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0308,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.3333,
            "after": 4.2,
            "delta": -0.1333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0308,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
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          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.3333,
            "after": 4.2,
            "delta": -0.1333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0308,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "SF",
        "games": 160,
        "wins": 65,
        "losses": 95,
        "win_pct": 0.4062,
        "runs_scored": 665.0,
        "runs_allowed": 751.0,
        "run_differential": -86.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.5375,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1562,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6937,
        "offense_index": 0.9267,
        "defense_index": 0.9555,
        "current_streak": "L3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2,
          "run_differential": -9.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.2156
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "LAD",
        "games": 160,
        "wins": 98,
        "losses": 62,
        "win_pct": 0.6125,
        "runs_scored": 792.0,
        "runs_allowed": 596.0,
        "run_differential": 196.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.225,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.95,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.725,
        "offense_index": 1.1037,
        "defense_index": 1.204,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.4,
          "run_differential": 23.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.3159
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.5315,
        "offense_edge": -0.0733,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.1037,
        "defense_strength": -0.0445,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.204,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.4
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9733,
        "run_prevention": 1.0476,
        "strikeout": 0.9758
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "683363",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "683363",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 81.0,
            "k_percent": 18.2,
            "bb_percent": 4.0,
            "woba": 0.286,
            "xwoba": 0.277,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 29.9,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.5,
            "hard_hit_percent": 42.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.36,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9761,
            "whiff_percent": 18.8,
            "swing_percent": 44.5
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8982,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.4996,
            "command_and_miss": -0.3093,
            "regression_edge": 0.2571,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.9714,
            "barrel_edge": 0.1556,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.7143,
            "whiff_edge": -0.9143,
            "bb_edge": 1.275,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.1358
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "683363",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 56,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 56,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 87.43889451666871,
              "release_spin_rate": 1987.095936949808,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 56,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 87.43889451666871,
                "release_spin_rate": 1987.095936949808,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.4389,
              "release_spin_rate": 1987.0959,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1358,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.9701,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0964,
          "sample_weight": 0.45,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9918,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9738,
          "walk_factor": 0.9541,
          "homer_factor": 0.9941,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.009,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "683363",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9963,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9963,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9793,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9973,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9882,
            "adjusted": 3
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.2,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 19,
      "Pitches": 80,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 7 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260926_LAD@SF.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260926

20260926_NYM@WAS

away

Jonah Tong

True

5.0

-2

5/3

2/1

6/9

Last 10 before this game (6 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.207792207792208,
      "WHIP": 1.3246753246753247,
      "IP": 25.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 6,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.222,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.222,
      "last_start_IP": 4.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.1322,
      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9888,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0041,
      "walk_factor": 1.0207,
      "homer_factor": 0.9695,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 21.9,
      "bb_percent": 11.4,
      "woba": 0.286,
      "xwoba": 0.284,
      "barrel_percent": 5.3,
      "hard_hit_percent": 36.0,
      "whiff_percent": 26.9
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 614,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.8653846153846154,
        "last_10": 0.1346153846153846
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 6.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.5455,
        "prior_weight": 0.4545
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "804636",
      "report_date": "20260926",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 6,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 22.2,
            "ER": 12.0,
            "R": 15.0,
            "H": 21.0,
            "BB": 12.0,
            "SO": 23.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 105.0,
            "Pitches": 424.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 4.2,
            "BB": 2.4,
            "SO": 4.6,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 21.0,
            "Pitches": 84.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.7647,
            "WHIP": 1.4559,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.52941,
            "H_per_IP": 0.92647,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.52941,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.01471,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08824
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 6,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 25.2,
            "ER": 12.0,
            "R": 15.0,
            "H": 21.0,
            "BB": 13.0,
            "SO": 25.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 114.0,
            "Pitches": 452.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.5,
            "H": 3.5,
            "BB": 2.1667,
            "SO": 4.1667,
            "HR": 0.3333,
            "BF": 19.0,
            "Pitches": 75.3333
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.2078,
            "WHIP": 1.3247,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.46753,
            "H_per_IP": 0.81818,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.50649,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.97403,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07792
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 6,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 25.2,
            "ER": 12.0,
            "R": 15.0,
            "H": 21.0,
            "BB": 13.0,
            "SO": 25.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 114.0,
            "Pitches": 452.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 2.0,
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          "rates": {
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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      "applied_metrics": {
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          "model": 5.0,
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.482,
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          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
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          "form": 4.527,
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        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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          "final": 2.093,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
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          "final": 4.659,
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.404,
          "final": 1.404,
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
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        "AB": 0,
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        "R": 0,
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        "2B": 0,
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        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
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        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 25.2,
        "ER": 12,
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        "HR9": 0.7012987012987013,
        "games_pitched": 6,
        "quality_starts": 1,
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      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
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        "games_fielded": 6,
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      },
      "games_count": 6,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-20T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9712126715779305,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
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          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 6.0,
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.5455,
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "804636",
      "player_name": "Jonah Tong",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "NYM",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
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          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
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        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
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            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
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          ],
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
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          {
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          {
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          {
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          },
          {
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          },
          {
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        ],
        "summary": {
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          "biggest_boost": null,
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          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "NYM",
        "games": 160,
        "wins": 73,
        "losses": 87,
        "win_pct": 0.4562,
        "runs_scored": 688.0,
        "runs_allowed": 724.0,
        "run_differential": -36.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.225,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.525,
        "offense_index": 0.9568,
        "defense_index": 0.9932,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
          "run_differential": -1.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0998
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "WAS",
        "games": 160,
        "wins": 76,
        "losses": 84,
        "win_pct": 0.475,
        "runs_scored": 814.0,
        "runs_allowed": 804.0,
        "run_differential": 10.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0625,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.0875,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.025,
        "offense_index": 1.1321,
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        "current_streak": "W3",
        "recent": {
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          "avg_runs_scored": 4.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0,
          "run_differential": 8.0
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        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0564
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      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.1562,
        "offense_edge": -0.0432,
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        "defense_strength": -0.0068,
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        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.3
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9883,
        "run_prevention": 1.0296,
        "strikeout": 0.9847
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "804636",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "804636",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 89.0,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 11.4,
            "woba": 0.286,
            "xwoba": 0.284,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 28.0,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 5.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 36.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 80.655,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.6935,
            "whiff_percent": 26.9,
            "swing_percent": 50.2
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
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            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8982,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
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          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.52,
            "command_and_miss": -0.0364,
            "regression_edge": 0.0571,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.7714,
            "barrel_edge": 0.4222,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.2714,
            "whiff_edge": 0.2429,
            "bb_edge": -0.575,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0784
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "804636",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 71,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 71,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 91.26372062270342,
              "release_spin_rate": 2117.2126479472468,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 71,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 91.26372062270342,
                "release_spin_rate": 2117.2126479472468,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 91.2637,
              "release_spin_rate": 2117.2126,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0784,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.5598,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.1322,
          "sample_weight": 0.45,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9888,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0041,
          "walk_factor": 1.0207,
          "homer_factor": 0.9695,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.002,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "804636",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.995,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.995,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0093,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9863,
            "adjusted": 0
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0018,
            "adjusted": 6
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 98,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 6 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was -2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260926_NYM@WAS.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260926

20260926_NYM@WAS

home

Connelly Early

True

5.2

3.0

-8

-5

4/1

3/0

3/1

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.436363636363636,
      "WHIP": 1.2545454545454544,
      "IP": 91.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 17,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.392,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.067,
      "last_start_IP": 4.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.1865,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0158,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0017,
      "walk_factor": 0.992,
      "homer_factor": 1.0853,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 23.8,
      "bb_percent": 8.7,
      "woba": 0.32,
      "xwoba": 0.32,
      "barrel_percent": 10.6,
      "hard_hit_percent": 40.9,
      "whiff_percent": 23.7
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 113,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 17.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7727,
        "prior_weight": 0.2273
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "813349",
      "report_date": "20260926",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 17,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 25.1,
            "ER": 11.0,
            "R": 11.0,
            "H": 26.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 30.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 113.0,
            "Pitches": 444.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.2,
            "R": 2.2,
            "H": 5.2,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 6.0,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 22.6,
            "Pitches": 88.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.9079,
            "WHIP": 1.4605,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.43421,
            "H_per_IP": 1.02632,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.43421,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.18421,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15789
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 56.0,
            "ER": 20.0,
            "R": 20.0,
            "H": 51.0,
            "BB": 17.0,
            "SO": 62.0,
            "HR": 10.0,
            "BF": 239.0,
            "Pitches": 912.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 5.1,
            "BB": 1.7,
            "SO": 6.2,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 23.9,
            "Pitches": 91.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.2143,
            "WHIP": 1.2143,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.35714,
            "H_per_IP": 0.91071,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.30357,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.10714,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.17857
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 17,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 91.2,
            "ER": 35.0,
            "R": 35.0,
            "H": 81.0,
            "BB": 34.0,
            "SO": 93.0,
            "HR": 15.0,
            "BF": 390.0,
            "Pitches": 1528.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.0588,
            "R": 2.0588,
            "H": 4.7647,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 5.4706,
            "HR": 0.8824,
            "BF": 22.9412,
            "Pitches": 89.8824
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.4364,
            "WHIP": 1.2545,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.38182,
            "H_per_IP": 0.88364,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.37091,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.01455,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.16364
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.279,
        "predicted_H": 5.185,
        "predicted_BB": 2.028,
        "predicted_SO": 5.818,
        "predicted_HR": 0.874,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.8098,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3399
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.446,
      "form_weight": 0.554,
      "form_reliability": 0.7727,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 17.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7727,
        "prior_weight": 0.2273
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 2.279,
          "final": 3.4927,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 5.185,
          "final": 4.6564,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.028,
          "final": 2.4615,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 5.818,
          "final": 4.5611,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.874,
          "final": 0.9302,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.8098,
          "final": 3.8098,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3399,
          "final": 1.3399,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 56.0,
        "ER": 20,
        "H": 51,
        "BB": 17,
        "SO": 62,
        "HR": 10,
        "ERA": 3.2142857142857144,
        "WHIP": 1.2142857142857142,
        "K9": 9.964285714285714,
        "HR9": 1.6071428571428572,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 5,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-06-30T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8518068150111606,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 5.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 3.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 17.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7727,
          "prior_weight": 0.2273
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "813349",
      "player_name": "Connelly Early",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "WAS",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_R": 5.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
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          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "WAS",
        "games": 160,
        "wins": 76,
        "losses": 84,
        "win_pct": 0.475,
        "runs_scored": 814.0,
        "runs_allowed": 804.0,
        "run_differential": 10.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0625,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.0875,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.025,
        "offense_index": 1.1321,
        "defense_index": 0.8943,
        "current_streak": "W3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0,
          "run_differential": 8.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0564
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "NYM",
        "games": 160,
        "wins": 73,
        "losses": 87,
        "win_pct": 0.4562,
        "runs_scored": 688.0,
        "runs_allowed": 724.0,
        "run_differential": -36.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.225,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.525,
        "offense_index": 0.9568,
        "defense_index": 0.9932,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
          "run_differential": -1.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0998
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.1562,
        "offense_edge": 0.1321,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0432,
        "defense_strength": -0.1057,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0068,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.3
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0048,
        "run_prevention": 0.9958,
        "strikeout": 1.0081
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "813349",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "813349",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 345.0,
            "k_percent": 23.8,
            "bb_percent": 8.7,
            "woba": 0.32,
            "xwoba": 0.32,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.1,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 10.6,
            "hard_hit_percent": 40.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 80.9147,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.5085,
            "whiff_percent": 23.7,
            "swing_percent": 46.9
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8982,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.3526,
            "command_and_miss": 0.0607,
            "regression_edge": 0.0,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.2571,
            "barrel_edge": -0.7556,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.4286,
            "whiff_edge": -0.2143,
            "bb_edge": 0.1,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0601
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "813349",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 96,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 96,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.79168102475339,
              "release_spin_rate": 2114.250313622991,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 96,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.79168102475339,
                "release_spin_rate": 2114.250313622991,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.7917,
              "release_spin_rate": 2114.2503,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0601,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.429,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.1865,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0158,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0017,
          "walk_factor": 0.992,
          "homer_factor": 1.0853,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.0,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "813349",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0158,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0158,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.992,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0853,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0017,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 5,
      "predicted_ER": 5,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 3,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 24,
      "Pitches": 99,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 5",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -5; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -8 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "MISSED_SHUTDOWN",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Model missed a shutdown outing",
      "detail": "The pitcher allowed zero earned runs after a projection of 5 ER."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260926_NYM@WAS.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260926

20260926_PIT@DET

away

Kirby Yates

True

5.0

1.2

-10

-2

5/2

2/0

4/1

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.098360655737705,
      "WHIP": 1.180327868852459,
      "IP": 40.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 44,
      "role_avg_IP": 0.924,
      "recent_avg_IP": 0.933,
      "last_start_IP": 0.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.1696,
      "sample_weight": 0.652,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9856,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0343,
      "walk_factor": 1.0104,
      "homer_factor": 1.0022,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 27.9,
      "bb_percent": 9.9,
      "woba": 0.291,
      "xwoba": 0.286,
      "barrel_percent": 5.8,
      "hard_hit_percent": 46.6,
      "whiff_percent": 28.5
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 241,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.2,
      "season_IP": 40.2,
      "season_ERA": 3.098,
      "season_WHIP": 1.18,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
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            "barrel_edge": 0.3111,
            "hard_hit_edge": -1.2429,
            "whiff_edge": 0.4714,
            "bb_edge": -0.2,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0645
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "489446",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 18,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 18,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.71216371796498,
              "release_spin_rate": 1986.3610646709749,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 18,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.71216371796498,
                "release_spin_rate": 1986.3610646709749,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.7122,
              "release_spin_rate": 1986.3611,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0645,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.4608,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.1696,
          "sample_weight": 0.652,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9856,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0343,
          "walk_factor": 1.0104,
          "homer_factor": 1.0022,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.005,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "489446",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9906,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9906,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0068,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.0014,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0224,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 91,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least three innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -10 outs from the projected workload."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260926_PIT@DET.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260926

20260926_PIT@DET

home

Justin Verlander

True

3.2

5.1

-4

9/5

0/1

3/6

Last 10 before this game (1 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 12.272727272727273,
      "WHIP": 2.181818181818182,
      "IP": 3.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 1,
      "role_avg_IP": 3.667,
      "recent_avg_IP": 3.667,
      "last_start_IP": 3.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0385,
      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9967,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0062,
      "walk_factor": 1.009,
      "homer_factor": 0.9936,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 23.1,
      "bb_percent": 10.1,
      "woba": 0.314,
      "xwoba": 0.308,
      "barrel_percent": 6.8,
      "hard_hit_percent": 37.1,
      "whiff_percent": 26.5
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 676,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 1.0
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 1.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.1667,
        "prior_weight": 0.8333
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "434378",
      "report_date": "20260926",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 1,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 1,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 3.2,
            "ER": 5.0,
            "R": 5.0,
            "H": 6.0,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 1.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 19.0,
            "Pitches": 80.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.2,
            "ER": 5.0,
            "R": 5.0,
            "H": 6.0,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 1.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 19.0,
            "Pitches": 80.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 12.2727,
            "WHIP": 2.1818,
            "ER_per_IP": 1.36364,
            "H_per_IP": 1.63636,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.54545,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.27273,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.27273
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 1,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 3.2,
            "ER": 5.0,
            "R": 5.0,
            "H": 6.0,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 1.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 19.0,
            "Pitches": 80.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.2,
            "ER": 5.0,
            "R": 5.0,
            "H": 6.0,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 1.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 19.0,
            "Pitches": 80.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 12.2727,
            "WHIP": 2.1818,
            "ER_per_IP": 1.36364,
            "H_per_IP": 1.63636,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.54545,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.27273,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.27273
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 1,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 3.2,
            "ER": 5.0,
            "R": 5.0,
            "H": 6.0,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 1.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 19.0,
            "Pitches": 80.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.2,
            "ER": 5.0,
            "R": 5.0,
            "H": 6.0,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 1.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 19.0,
            "Pitches": 80.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 12.2727,
            "WHIP": 2.1818,
            "ER_per_IP": 1.36364,
            "H_per_IP": 1.63636,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.54545,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.27273,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.27273
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.585,
        "predicted_H": 4.308,
        "predicted_BB": 1.606,
        "predicted_SO": 3.255,
        "predicted_HR": 0.668,
        "predicted_ERA": 5.8975,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.4993
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.7021,
      "form_weight": 0.2979,
      "form_reliability": 0.1667,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 1.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.1667,
        "prior_weight": 0.8333
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 4.0,
          "final": 4.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 2.585,
          "final": 4.9826,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 9.0,
          "form": 4.308,
          "final": 7.6021,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.606,
          "final": 0.4785,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 3.255,
          "final": 1.6718,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.668,
          "final": 0.9011,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 5.8975,
          "final": 5.8975,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.4993,
          "final": 1.4993,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "insufficient_data"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 3.2,
        "ER": 5,
        "H": 6,
        "BB": 2,
        "SO": 1,
        "HR": 1,
        "ERA": 12.272727272727273,
        "WHIP": 2.181818181818182,
        "K9": 2.4545454545454546,
        "HR9": 2.4545454545454546,
        "games_pitched": 1,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": true
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 1,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 1,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-03-30T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.1093440035382907,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.0,
          "predicted_ER": 6.0,
          "predicted_H": 9.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 1.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 1.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.1667,
          "prior_weight": 0.8333
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 3.2,
          "predicted_ER": 6,
          "predicted_H": 9,
          "predicted_BB": 0,
          "predicted_SO": 1,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "434378",
      "player_name": "Justin Verlander",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "DET",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 6.0,
            "predicted_H": 9.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 1.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 6.0,
            "predicted_H": 9.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 3.2,
            "predicted_SO": 1.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 9.0,
              "after": 9.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 3.2,
              "delta": -0.8,
              "percent_delta": -0.2,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 3.2,
              "delta": -0.8,
              "percent_delta": -0.2,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 6.0,
            "predicted_H": 9.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 3.2,
            "predicted_R": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 9.0,
              "after": 9.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 3.2,
              "after": 3.2,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 2.0,
              "percent_delta": 2.0,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
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            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 2.0,
              "percent_delta": 2.0,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 9.0,
            "after": 9.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 3.2,
            "delta": -0.8,
            "percent_delta": -0.2,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 2.0,
            "percent_delta": 2.0,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 2,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 1,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 2.0,
            "percent_delta": 2.0,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 3.2,
            "delta": -0.8,
            "percent_delta": -0.2,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "DET",
        "games": 160,
        "wins": 75,
        "losses": 85,
        "win_pct": 0.4688,
        "runs_scored": 717.0,
        "runs_allowed": 645.0,
        "run_differential": 72.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.45,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4813,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0312,
        "offense_index": 0.998,
        "defense_index": 1.1139,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4,
          "run_differential": 1.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0064
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "PIT",
        "games": 160,
        "wins": 81,
        "losses": 79,
        "win_pct": 0.5062,
        "runs_scored": 760.0,
        "runs_allowed": 733.0,
        "run_differential": 27.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1688,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.75,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5812,
        "offense_index": 1.0578,
        "defense_index": 0.9802,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1,
          "run_differential": 1.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0609
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0673,
        "offense_edge": -0.002,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0578,
        "defense_strength": 0.1139,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0198,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9984,
        "run_prevention": 1.0012,
        "strikeout": 0.9934
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "434378",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "434378",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 0.0,
            "k_percent": 23.1,
            "bb_percent": 10.1,
            "woba": 0.314,
            "xwoba": 0.308,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 32.1,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.8,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.1,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5616,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.7975,
            "whiff_percent": 26.5,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8982,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.0823,
            "command_and_miss": 0.0857,
            "regression_edge": 0.1714,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.0857,
            "barrel_edge": 0.0889,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.1143,
            "whiff_edge": 0.1857,
            "bb_edge": -0.25,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": false,
            "pitcher_id": "434378",
            "reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0385,
          "sample_weight": 0.45,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9967,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0062,
          "walk_factor": 1.009,
          "homer_factor": 0.9936,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.006,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "434378",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9985,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 0.9985,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.004,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9971,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0028,
            "adjusted": 1
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 3.2,
      "predicted_H": 9,
      "predicted_R": 6,
      "predicted_ER": 6,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 3,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 20,
      "Pitches": 83,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 1 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -4; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was -4."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260926_PIT@DET.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260926

20260926_STL@MIL

away

Quinn Mathews

True

6.0

5.0

-3

5/5

0/2

7/7

Last 10 before this game (8 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.6541353383458643,
      "WHIP": 1.37593984962406,
      "IP": 44.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 8,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.542,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.067,
      "last_start_IP": 7.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.1193,
      "sample_weight": 0.644,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9899,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9996,
      "walk_factor": 1.0052,
      "homer_factor": 0.943,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 20.5,
      "bb_percent": 9.5,
      "woba": 0.311,
      "xwoba": 0.299,
      "barrel_percent": 3.8,
      "hard_hit_percent": 34.8,
      "whiff_percent": 26.6
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 218,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.6818181818181818,
        "last_10": 0.3181818181818182
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 8.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.6154,
        "prior_weight": 0.3846
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "687273",
      "report_date": "20260926",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 8,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 30.1,
            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 8.0,
            "H": 25.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 26.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 124.0,
            "Pitches": 495.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.6,
            "R": 1.6,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 5.2,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 24.8,
            "Pitches": 99.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.3736,
            "WHIP": 1.1868,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.26374,
            "H_per_IP": 0.82418,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.36264,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.85714,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0989
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 8,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 44.1,
            "ER": 18.0,
            "R": 18.0,
            "H": 43.0,
            "BB": 18.0,
            "SO": 39.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 190.0,
            "Pitches": 786.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.25,
            "R": 2.25,
            "H": 5.375,
            "BB": 2.25,
            "SO": 4.875,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 23.75,
            "Pitches": 98.25
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.6541,
            "WHIP": 1.3759,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.40602,
            "H_per_IP": 0.96992,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.40602,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.8797,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09023
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 8,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 44.1,
            "ER": 18.0,
            "R": 18.0,
            "H": 43.0,
            "BB": 18.0,
            "SO": 39.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 190.0,
            "Pitches": 786.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.25,
            "R": 2.25,
            "H": 5.375,
            "BB": 2.25,
            "SO": 4.875,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 23.75,
            "Pitches": 98.25
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.6541,
            "WHIP": 1.3759,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.40602,
            "H_per_IP": 0.96992,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.40602,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.8797,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09023
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.301,
        "predicted_H": 5.424,
        "predicted_BB": 2.241,
        "predicted_SO": 5.293,
        "predicted_HR": 0.69,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.4891,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2915
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.5125,
      "form_weight": 0.4875,
      "form_reliability": 0.6154,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 8.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.6154,
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      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 6.0,
          "final": 6.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.301,
          "final": 1.6342,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.424,
          "final": 5.2067,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 2.241,
          "final": 1.0925,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 5.293,
          "final": 6.1678,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.69,
          "final": 0.3364,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.4891,
          "final": 3.4891,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2915,
          "final": 1.2915,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 44.1,
        "ER": 18,
        "H": 43,
        "BB": 18,
        "SO": 39,
        "HR": 4,
        "ERA": 3.6541353383458643,
        "WHIP": 1.37593984962406,
        "K9": 7.917293233082706,
        "HR9": 0.8120300751879699,
        "games_pitched": 8,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 8,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 8,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-20T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9053312511013861,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 7.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 8.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.6154,
          "prior_weight": 0.3846
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "687273",
      "player_name": "Quinn Mathews",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "STL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_R": 1.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 1.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 5.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
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            "before": 7.0,
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        ],
        "summary": {
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          "biggest_boost": null,
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          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "STL",
        "games": 160,
        "wins": 77,
        "losses": 83,
        "win_pct": 0.4813,
        "runs_scored": 714.0,
        "runs_allowed": 740.0,
        "run_differential": -26.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.1625,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4625,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.625,
        "offense_index": 0.9955,
        "defense_index": 0.9692,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.0,
          "run_differential": -19.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1058
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "MIL",
        "games": 160,
        "wins": 101,
        "losses": 59,
        "win_pct": 0.6312,
        "runs_scored": 823.0,
        "runs_allowed": 612.0,
        "run_differential": 211.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.3188,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.1437,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.825,
        "offense_index": 1.1475,
        "defense_index": 1.1719,
        "current_streak": "W3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 8,
          "losses": 2,
          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.9,
          "run_differential": 16.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.3783
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.4841,
        "offense_edge": -0.0045,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.1475,
        "defense_strength": -0.0308,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1719,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.5
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9738,
        "run_prevention": 1.0509,
        "strikeout": 0.9737
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "687273",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "687273",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 161.0,
            "k_percent": 20.5,
            "bb_percent": 9.5,
            "woba": 0.311,
            "xwoba": 0.299,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 32.6,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 3.8,
            "hard_hit_percent": 34.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.4522,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8025,
            "whiff_percent": 26.6,
            "swing_percent": 45.4
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8982,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
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          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.3101,
            "command_and_miss": -0.0464,
            "regression_edge": 0.3429,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.3429,
            "barrel_edge": 0.7556,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.4429,
            "whiff_edge": 0.2,
            "bb_edge": -0.1,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.1333
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "687273",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 99,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 99,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 87.48356848439896,
              "release_spin_rate": 2148.8854214067615,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 99,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 87.48356848439896,
                "release_spin_rate": 2148.8854214067615,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.4836,
              "release_spin_rate": 2148.8854,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1333,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.9522,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.1193,
          "sample_weight": 0.644,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9899,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9996,
          "walk_factor": 1.0052,
          "homer_factor": 0.943,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.012,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "687273",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9935,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9935,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0033,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9633,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9997,
            "adjusted": 5
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 100,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 8 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +2."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: True; actual quality start: False."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260926_STL@MIL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260926

20260926_STL@MIL

home

Dustin May

True

4.1

3.0

-4

1/3

2/1

3/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
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      "WHIP": 1.3177570093457944,
      "IP": 142.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 30,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.756,
      "recent_avg_IP": 3.667,
      "last_start_IP": 2.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.1896,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0161,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9926,
      "walk_factor": 0.98,
      "homer_factor": 1.0554,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 22.9,
      "bb_percent": 8.1,
      "woba": 0.317,
      "xwoba": 0.324,
      "barrel_percent": 7.6,
      "hard_hit_percent": 44.4,
      "whiff_percent": 23.0
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 314,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 30.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8571,
        "prior_weight": 0.1429
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "669160",
      "report_date": "20260926",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 30,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.333,
      "windows": {
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          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 18.1,
            "ER": 11.0,
            "R": 11.0,
            "H": 20.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 21.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 84.0,
            "Pitches": 343.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.2,
            "ER": 2.2,
            "R": 2.2,
            "H": 4.0,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 4.2,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 16.8,
            "Pitches": 68.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.4,
            "WHIP": 1.4727,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.6,
            "H_per_IP": 1.09091,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.38182,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.14545,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.21818
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 38.2,
            "ER": 21.0,
            "R": 21.0,
            "H": 35.0,
            "BB": 16.0,
            "SO": 36.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 167.0,
            "Pitches": 660.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.0,
            "ER": 2.1,
            "R": 2.1,
            "H": 3.5,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 3.6,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 16.7,
            "Pitches": 66.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.8879,
            "WHIP": 1.319,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.5431,
            "H_per_IP": 0.90517,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.41379,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.93103,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15517
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 30,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 142.2,
            "ER": 74.0,
            "R": 77.0,
            "H": 139.0,
            "BB": 49.0,
            "SO": 139.0,
            "HR": 13.0,
            "BF": 608.0,
            "Pitches": 2341.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.4667,
            "R": 2.5667,
            "H": 4.6333,
            "BB": 1.6333,
            "SO": 4.6333,
            "HR": 0.4333,
            "BF": 20.2667,
            "Pitches": 78.0333
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.6682,
            "WHIP": 1.3178,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.51869,
            "H_per_IP": 0.9743,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.34346,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.9743,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09112
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.245,
        "predicted_H": 4.033,
        "predicted_BB": 1.551,
        "predicted_SO": 4.121,
        "predicted_HR": 0.676,
        "predicted_ERA": 5.0098,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3843
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4104,
      "form_weight": 0.5896,
      "form_reliability": 0.8571,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_size": 30.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8571,
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      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.1,
          "form": 4.0,
          "final": 4.1,
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.245,
          "final": 1.7341,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 4.033,
          "final": 2.7883,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.551,
          "final": 1.7353,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 4.121,
          "final": 3.661,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.676,
          "final": 0.3986,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 5.0098,
          "final": 5.0098,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3843,
          "final": 1.3843,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 38.2,
        "ER": 21,
        "H": 35,
        "BB": 16,
        "SO": 36,
        "HR": 6,
        "ERA": 4.887931034482759,
        "WHIP": 1.3189655172413794,
        "K9": 8.379310344827587,
        "HR9": 1.396551724137931,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-22T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0427089086072199,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 1.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 3.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 30.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8571,
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "669160",
      "player_name": "Dustin May",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "MIL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 1.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.3333,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
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            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.1,
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            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.3333,
              "after": 4.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0538,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
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          {
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          {
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          },
          {
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.3333,
            "after": 4.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0538,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "MIL",
        "games": 160,
        "wins": 101,
        "losses": 59,
        "win_pct": 0.6312,
        "runs_scored": 823.0,
        "runs_allowed": 612.0,
        "run_differential": 211.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.3188,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.1437,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.825,
        "offense_index": 1.1475,
        "defense_index": 1.1719,
        "current_streak": "W3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 8,
          "losses": 2,
          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.9,
          "run_differential": 16.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.3783
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "STL",
        "games": 160,
        "wins": 77,
        "losses": 83,
        "win_pct": 0.4813,
        "runs_scored": 714.0,
        "runs_allowed": 740.0,
        "run_differential": -26.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.1625,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4625,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.625,
        "offense_index": 0.9955,
        "defense_index": 0.9692,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.0,
          "run_differential": -19.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1058
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.4841,
        "offense_edge": 0.1475,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0045,
        "defense_strength": 0.1719,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0308,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.5
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0247,
        "run_prevention": 0.9579,
        "strikeout": 1.0149
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "669160",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "669160",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 581.0,
            "k_percent": 22.9,
            "bb_percent": 8.1,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.324,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 36.5,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.6,
            "hard_hit_percent": 44.4,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.2718,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.6285,
            "whiff_percent": 23.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.6
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8982,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.3243,
            "command_and_miss": -0.0021,
            "regression_edge": -0.2,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.3714,
            "barrel_edge": -0.0889,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.9286,
            "whiff_edge": -0.3143,
            "bb_edge": 0.25,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.1569
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "669160",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 59,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 59,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 92.66624874445156,
              "release_spin_rate": 2536.673286155761,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 59,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 92.66624874445156,
                "release_spin_rate": 2536.673286155761,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 92.6662,
              "release_spin_rate": 2536.6733,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.1569,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 1.1208,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.1896,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0161,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9926,
          "walk_factor": 0.98,
          "homer_factor": 1.0554,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.007,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "669160",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0161,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0161,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.98,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0554,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9926,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.1,
      "predicted_H": 1,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 3,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 17,
      "Pitches": 78,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260926_STL@MIL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260926

20260926_TB@PHI

away

Griffin Jax

True

5.0

3.0

-6

1/2

0/0

2/1

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.375,
      "WHIP": 1.152439024390244,
      "IP": 109.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 32,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.561,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.533,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0237,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.998,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0486,
      "walk_factor": 0.974,
      "homer_factor": 1.0464,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 25.6,
      "bb_percent": 7.8,
      "woba": 0.299,
      "xwoba": 0.32,
      "barrel_percent": 8.8,
      "hard_hit_percent": 39.7,
      "whiff_percent": 30.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 271,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.0,
      "season_IP": 109.1,
      "season_ERA": 3.375,
      "season_WHIP": 1.152,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 32.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8649,
        "prior_weight": 0.1351
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "643377",
      "report_date": "20260926",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 32,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 22.2,
            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 10.0,
            "H": 18.0,
            "BB": 5.0,
            "SO": 23.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 91.0,
            "Pitches": 352.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 1.6,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 3.6,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 4.6,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 18.2,
            "Pitches": 70.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.1765,
            "WHIP": 1.0147,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.35294,
            "H_per_IP": 0.79412,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.22059,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.01471,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08824
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 49.1,
            "ER": 21.0,
            "R": 24.0,
            "H": 39.0,
            "BB": 15.0,
            "SO": 57.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 201.0,
            "Pitches": 763.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.1,
            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 3.9,
            "BB": 1.5,
            "SO": 5.7,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 20.1,
            "Pitches": 76.3
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.8311,
            "WHIP": 1.0946,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.42568,
            "H_per_IP": 0.79054,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.30405,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.15541,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08108
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 32,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 109.1,
            "ER": 41.0,
            "R": 51.0,
            "H": 92.0,
            "BB": 34.0,
            "SO": 115.0,
            "HR": 15.0,
            "BF": 444.0,
            "Pitches": 1656.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.1,
            "ER": 1.2812,
            "R": 1.5938,
            "H": 2.875,
            "BB": 1.0625,
            "SO": 3.5938,
            "HR": 0.4688,
            "BF": 13.875,
            "Pitches": 51.75
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.375,
            "WHIP": 1.1524,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.375,
            "H_per_IP": 0.84146,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.31098,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.05183,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1372
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.2,
        "predicted_ER": 1.835,
        "predicted_H": 3.788,
        "predicted_BB": 1.297,
        "predicted_SO": 4.825,
        "predicted_HR": 0.471,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.6043,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1097
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4071,
      "form_weight": 0.5929,
      "form_reliability": 0.8649,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 32.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8649,
        "prior_weight": 0.1351
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.2,
          "final": 4.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.835,
          "final": 1.088,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 3.788,
          "final": 2.6531,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.297,
          "final": 0.769,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 4.825,
          "final": 3.675,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.471,
          "final": 0.2793,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.6043,
          "final": 3.6043,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1097,
          "final": 1.1097,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 49.1,
        "ER": 21,
        "H": 39,
        "BB": 15,
        "SO": 57,
        "HR": 4,
        "ERA": 3.8310810810810816,
        "WHIP": 1.0945945945945947,
        "K9": 10.39864864864865,
        "HR9": 0.7297297297297298,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 1,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 2,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-20T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9182040157833614,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 0.0,
          "predicted_H": 1.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 2.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 32.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8649,
          "prior_weight": 0.1351
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "643377",
      "player_name": "Griffin Jax",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "TB",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 1.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 2.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 1.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 0.0,
            "predicted_SO": 2.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 0,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 0,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "TB",
        "games": 160,
        "wins": 97,
        "losses": 63,
        "win_pct": 0.6062,
        "runs_scored": 721.0,
        "runs_allowed": 642.0,
        "run_differential": 79.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.4938,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5062,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0125,
        "offense_index": 1.0053,
        "defense_index": 1.1172,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.8,
          "run_differential": 9.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1859
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "PHI",
        "games": 160,
        "wins": 87,
        "losses": 73,
        "win_pct": 0.5437,
        "runs_scored": 705.0,
        "runs_allowed": 683.0,
        "run_differential": 22.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1375,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4062,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2687,
        "offense_index": 0.9829,
        "defense_index": 1.0501,
        "current_streak": "L3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.9,
          "run_differential": -9.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.019
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.1669,
        "offense_edge": 0.0053,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0171,
        "defense_strength": 0.1172,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0501,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0109,
        "run_prevention": 0.9772,
        "strikeout": 1.0064
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "643377",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "643377",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 407.0,
            "k_percent": 25.6,
            "bb_percent": 7.8,
            "woba": 0.299,
            "xwoba": 0.32,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.0,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.8,
            "hard_hit_percent": 39.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.7857,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.1374,
            "whiff_percent": 30.1,
            "swing_percent": 48.2
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8982,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.1166,
            "command_and_miss": 0.5414,
            "regression_edge": -0.6,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.2571,
            "barrel_edge": -0.3556,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.2571,
            "whiff_edge": 0.7,
            "bb_edge": 0.325,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.1023
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "643377",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 76,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 76,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 91.69040072946703,
              "release_spin_rate": 2573.7540952383274,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 76,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 91.69040072946703,
                "release_spin_rate": 2573.7540952383274,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 91.6904,
              "release_spin_rate": 2573.7541,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.1023,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.7305,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0237,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.998,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0486,
          "walk_factor": 0.974,
          "homer_factor": 1.0464,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.021,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "643377",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.998,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.998,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.974,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.0464,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0486,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 1,
      "predicted_R": 0,
      "predicted_ER": 0,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 2,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 16,
      "Pitches": 66,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -6 outs from the projected workload."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260926_TB@PHI.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260926

20260926_TB@PHI

home

Aaron Nola

True

6.0

1.0

-15

4/4

3/0

5/0

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.54302103250478,
      "WHIP": 1.3307839388145315,
      "IP": 174.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 32,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.448,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.267,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0232,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.998,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0234,
      "walk_factor": 0.978,
      "homer_factor": 1.0478,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 24.0,
      "bb_percent": 8.0,
      "woba": 0.341,
      "xwoba": 0.312,
      "barrel_percent": 9.2,
      "hard_hit_percent": 39.9,
      "whiff_percent": 27.3
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 32,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 32.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8649,
        "prior_weight": 0.1351
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "605400",
      "report_date": "20260926",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 32,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 31.1,
            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 8.0,
            "H": 22.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 24.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 121.0,
            "Pitches": 467.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.1,
            "ER": 1.6,
            "R": 1.6,
            "H": 4.4,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 4.8,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 24.2,
            "Pitches": 93.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.2979,
            "WHIP": 1.0213,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.25532,
            "H_per_IP": 0.70213,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.31915,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.76596,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12766
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 60.1,
            "ER": 17.0,
            "R": 17.0,
            "H": 47.0,
            "BB": 20.0,
            "SO": 61.0,
            "HR": 10.0,
            "BF": 239.0,
            "Pitches": 950.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.7,
            "R": 1.7,
            "H": 4.7,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 6.1,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 23.9,
            "Pitches": 95.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.5359,
            "WHIP": 1.1105,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.28177,
            "H_per_IP": 0.77901,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.33149,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.01105,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.16575
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 32,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 174.1,
            "ER": 88.0,
            "R": 90.0,
            "H": 173.0,
            "BB": 59.0,
            "SO": 177.0,
            "HR": 36.0,
            "BF": 737.0,
            "Pitches": 2925.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.75,
            "R": 2.8125,
            "H": 5.4062,
            "BB": 1.8438,
            "SO": 5.5312,
            "HR": 1.125,
            "BF": 23.0312,
            "Pitches": 91.4062
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.543,
            "WHIP": 1.3308,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.50478,
            "H_per_IP": 0.99235,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.33843,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.0153,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.2065
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.053,
        "predicted_H": 4.893,
        "predicted_BB": 2.011,
        "predicted_SO": 5.45,
        "predicted_HR": 0.936,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.0723,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.148
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4071,
      "form_weight": 0.5929,
      "form_reliability": 0.8649,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 32.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8649,
        "prior_weight": 0.1351
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 6.0,
          "final": 6.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.053,
          "final": 1.6243,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 4.893,
          "final": 4.5295,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.011,
          "final": 2.4136,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 5.45,
          "final": 4.8597,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.936,
          "final": 0.555,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.0723,
          "final": 3.0723,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.148,
          "final": 1.148,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 60.1,
        "ER": 17,
        "H": 47,
        "BB": 20,
        "SO": 61,
        "HR": 10,
        "ERA": 2.535911602209945,
        "WHIP": 1.110497237569061,
        "K9": 9.099447513812155,
        "HR9": 1.4917127071823206,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 6,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-23T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.7728950154847204,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 32.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8649,
          "prior_weight": 0.1351
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "605400",
      "player_name": "Aaron Nola",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "PHI",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_R": 1.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.25,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 1,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.25,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.25,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 0,
          "better_metrics": 1,
          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.25,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "PHI",
        "games": 160,
        "wins": 87,
        "losses": 73,
        "win_pct": 0.5437,
        "runs_scored": 705.0,
        "runs_allowed": 683.0,
        "run_differential": 22.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1375,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4062,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2687,
        "offense_index": 0.9829,
        "defense_index": 1.0501,
        "current_streak": "L3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.9,
          "run_differential": -9.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.019
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "TB",
        "games": 160,
        "wins": 97,
        "losses": 63,
        "win_pct": 0.6062,
        "runs_scored": 721.0,
        "runs_allowed": 642.0,
        "run_differential": 79.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.4938,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5062,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0125,
        "offense_index": 1.0053,
        "defense_index": 1.1172,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.8,
          "run_differential": 9.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1859
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.1669,
        "offense_edge": -0.0171,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0053,
        "defense_strength": 0.0501,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1172,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9946,
        "run_prevention": 1.0042,
        "strikeout": 0.9946
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "605400",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "605400",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 687.0,
            "k_percent": 24.0,
            "bb_percent": 8.0,
            "woba": 0.341,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.5,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 9.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 39.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.7384,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.2368,
            "whiff_percent": 27.3,
            "swing_percent": 46.3
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8982,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.2089,
            "command_and_miss": 0.2886,
            "regression_edge": 0.8286,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.0286,
            "barrel_edge": -0.4444,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.2857,
            "whiff_edge": 0.3,
            "bb_edge": 0.275,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.2211
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "605400",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 94,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 94,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 85.9161751557338,
              "release_spin_rate": 2297.230473518228,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 94,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 85.9161751557338,
                "release_spin_rate": 2297.230473518228,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 85.9162,
              "release_spin_rate": 2297.2305,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.2211,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.5792,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0232,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.998,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0234,
          "walk_factor": 0.978,
          "homer_factor": 1.0478,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.029,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "605400",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.998,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.998,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.978,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0478,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0234,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 26,
      "Pitches": 112,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least three innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -15 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: True; actual quality start: False."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260926_TB@PHI.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260926

20260926_TEX@MIN

away

Nathan Eovaldi

True

5.0

4.1

-2

-3

4/4

1/2

7/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.266509433962264,
      "WHIP": 1.2099056603773584,
      "IP": 141.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 26,
      "role_avg_IP": 6.03,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.467,
      "last_start_IP": 5.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0423,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9964,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0354,
      "walk_factor": 0.928,
      "homer_factor": 1.0505,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 23.7,
      "bb_percent": 5.5,
      "woba": 0.322,
      "xwoba": 0.319,
      "barrel_percent": 8.5,
      "hard_hit_percent": 41.5,
      "whiff_percent": 29.7
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 184,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 26.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8387,
        "prior_weight": 0.1613
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "543135",
      "report_date": "20260926",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 26,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 14.0,
            "ER": 6.0,
            "R": 6.0,
            "H": 14.0,
            "BB": 3.0,
            "SO": 6.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 62.0,
            "Pitches": 228.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 2.2,
            "ER": 1.2,
            "R": 1.2,
            "H": 2.8,
            "BB": 0.6,
            "SO": 1.2,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 12.4,
            "Pitches": 45.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.8571,
            "WHIP": 1.2143,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.42857,
            "H_per_IP": 1.0,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.21429,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.42857,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 41.0,
            "ER": 23.0,
            "R": 24.0,
            "H": 45.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 40.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 181.0,
            "Pitches": 678.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.0,
            "ER": 2.3,
            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 4.5,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 4.0,
            "HR": 0.7,
            "BF": 18.1,
            "Pitches": 67.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.0488,
            "WHIP": 1.3415,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.56098,
            "H_per_IP": 1.09756,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.2439,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.97561,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.17073
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 26,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 141.1,
            "ER": 67.0,
            "R": 70.0,
            "H": 138.0,
            "BB": 33.0,
            "SO": 141.0,
            "HR": 24.0,
            "BF": 595.0,
            "Pitches": 2149.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.5769,
            "R": 2.6923,
            "H": 5.3077,
            "BB": 1.2692,
            "SO": 5.4231,
            "HR": 0.9231,
            "BF": 22.8846,
            "Pitches": 82.6538
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.2665,
            "WHIP": 1.2099,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.47406,
            "H_per_IP": 0.97642,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.23349,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.99764,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.16981
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.0,
        "predicted_ER": 1.95,
        "predicted_H": 4.077,
        "predicted_BB": 1.009,
        "predicted_SO": 3.057,
        "predicted_HR": 0.409,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.399,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2749
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4181,
      "form_weight": 0.5819,
      "form_reliability": 0.8387,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 26.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8387,
        "prior_weight": 0.1613
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 4.0,
          "final": 4.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 1.95,
          "final": 2.8072,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 4.077,
          "final": 4.0448,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.009,
          "final": 1.0052,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 3.057,
          "final": 4.7058,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 0.409,
          "final": 1.0743,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.399,
          "final": 4.399,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2749,
          "final": 1.2749,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 41.0,
        "ER": 23,
        "H": 45,
        "BB": 10,
        "SO": 40,
        "HR": 7,
        "ERA": 5.048780487804878,
        "WHIP": 1.3414634146341464,
        "K9": 8.78048780487805,
        "HR9": 1.5365853658536586,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 2,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-22T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0613669195407773,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 7.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 26.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8387,
          "prior_weight": 0.1613
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 4,
          "predicted_H": 4,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 7,
          "predicted_HR": 2
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "543135",
      "player_name": "Nathan Eovaldi",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "TEX",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          ],
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "TEX",
        "games": 160,
        "wins": 79,
        "losses": 81,
        "win_pct": 0.4938,
        "runs_scored": 663.0,
        "runs_allowed": 711.0,
        "run_differential": -48.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1437,
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        "offense_index": 0.9239,
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        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3,
          "run_differential": -4.0
        },
        "available": true,
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      "opponent": {
        "team": "MIN",
        "games": 160,
        "wins": 76,
        "losses": 84,
        "win_pct": 0.475,
        "runs_scored": 731.0,
        "runs_allowed": 787.0,
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        "run_differential_per_game": -0.35,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5687,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9188,
        "offense_index": 1.0187,
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          "run_differential": 11.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0292
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      "edges": {
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        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0882,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
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      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.999,
        "run_prevention": 1.0027,
        "strikeout": 0.9981
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "543135",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "543135",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 581.0,
            "k_percent": 23.7,
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            "woba": 0.322,
            "xwoba": 0.319,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 30.7,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.5,
            "hard_hit_percent": 41.5,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.8531,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.3566,
            "whiff_percent": 29.7,
            "swing_percent": 51.9
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8982,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.1575,
            "command_and_miss": 0.5143,
            "regression_edge": 0.0857,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.2286,
            "barrel_edge": -0.2889,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.5143,
            "whiff_edge": 0.6429,
            "bb_edge": 0.9,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.1466
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "543135",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 67,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 67,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 87.24640997938972,
              "release_spin_rate": 1886.4896008396245,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 67,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 87.24640997938972,
                "release_spin_rate": 1886.4896008396245,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.2464,
              "release_spin_rate": 1886.4896,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
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              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
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            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1466,
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              "velocity_edge": -1.0471,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0423,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9964,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0354,
          "walk_factor": 0.928,
          "homer_factor": 1.0505,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.003,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "543135",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
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            "factor": 0.9964,
            "adjusted": 3
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          "predicted_H": {
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            "factor": 0.9964,
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          "predicted_BB": {
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            "factor": 0.928,
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          "predicted_HR": {
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            "factor": 1.0505,
            "adjusted": 1
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          "predicted_SO": {
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            "adjusted": 6
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 91,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was -2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260926_TEX@MIN.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260926

20260926_TEX@MIN

home

Bailey Ober

True

5.0

3/10

2/1

1/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
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      "games_started": null,
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      "role_avg_IP": 5.348,
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      "k_percent": 17.0,
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      "woba": 0.316,
      "xwoba": 0.325,
      "barrel_percent": 9.6,
      "hard_hit_percent": 37.0,
      "whiff_percent": 19.9
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 88,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
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      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
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      "effective_weights": {
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      "shrinkage": {
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      "player_id": "641927",
      "report_date": "20260926",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 24,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
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          "totals": {
            "IP": 22.2,
            "ER": 6.0,
            "R": 7.0,
            "H": 20.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 20.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 100.0,
            "Pitches": 383.0
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            "H": 4.0,
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            "SO": 4.0,
            "HR": 0.4,
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            "Pitches": 76.6
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          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.3235,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.26471,
            "H_per_IP": 0.88235,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.44118,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.88235,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08824
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 49.0,
            "ER": 22.0,
            "R": 24.0,
            "H": 52.0,
            "BB": 15.0,
            "SO": 33.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 214.0,
            "Pitches": 819.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.2,
            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 5.2,
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            "SO": 3.3,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 21.4,
            "Pitches": 81.9
          },
          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.3673,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.44898,
            "H_per_IP": 1.06122,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.30612,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.67347,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12245
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        },
        "season": {
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          "totals": {
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            "R": 63.0,
            "H": 123.0,
            "BB": 36.0,
            "SO": 91.0,
            "HR": 19.0,
            "BF": 535.0,
            "Pitches": 2013.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.4583,
            "R": 2.625,
            "H": 5.125,
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            "SO": 3.7917,
            "HR": 0.7917,
            "BF": 22.2917,
            "Pitches": 83.875
          },
          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.2619,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.46825,
            "H_per_IP": 0.97619,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.28571,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.72222,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15079
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 1.946,
        "predicted_H": 4.769,
        "predicted_BB": 1.803,
        "predicted_SO": 3.967,
        "predicted_HR": 0.586,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.5521,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3328
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
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      "form_reliability": 0.8276,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_size": 24.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8276,
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      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
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          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.946,
          "final": 1.546,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 4.769,
          "final": 4.021,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.803,
          "final": 1.8863,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 3.967,
          "final": 2.7124,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.586,
          "final": 0.3382,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.5521,
          "final": 3.5521,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3328,
          "final": 1.3328,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 49.0,
        "ER": 22,
        "H": 52,
        "BB": 15,
        "SO": 33,
        "HR": 6,
        "ERA": 4.040816326530612,
        "WHIP": 1.3673469387755102,
        "K9": 6.061224489795919,
        "HR9": 1.1020408163265305,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 2,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-20T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9486180395009566,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 1.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 24.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8276,
          "prior_weight": 0.1724
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "641927",
      "player_name": "Bailey Ober",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "MIN",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 1.0
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 1.0,
            "predicted_SO": 1.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 1.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 0,
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          "biggest_boost": null,
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          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "MIN",
        "games": 160,
        "wins": 76,
        "losses": 84,
        "win_pct": 0.475,
        "runs_scored": 731.0,
        "runs_allowed": 787.0,
        "run_differential": -56.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.35,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5687,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9188,
        "offense_index": 1.0187,
        "defense_index": 0.9118,
        "current_streak": "W3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.4,
          "run_differential": 11.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0292
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "TEX",
        "games": 160,
        "wins": 79,
        "losses": 81,
        "win_pct": 0.4938,
        "runs_scored": 663.0,
        "runs_allowed": 711.0,
        "run_differential": -48.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1437,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4437,
        "offense_index": 0.9239,
        "defense_index": 1.0092,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3,
          "run_differential": -4.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0421
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0129,
        "offense_edge": 0.0187,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0761,
        "defense_strength": -0.0882,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0092,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0009,
        "run_prevention": 0.996,
        "strikeout": 1.0065
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "641927",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "641927",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 497.0,
            "k_percent": 17.0,
            "bb_percent": 6.7,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.325,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 30.1,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 9.6,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.8076,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9223,
            "whiff_percent": 19.9,
            "swing_percent": 49.3
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8982,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.1995,
            "command_and_miss": -0.4664,
            "regression_edge": -0.2571,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.4,
            "barrel_edge": -0.5333,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.1286,
            "whiff_edge": -0.7571,
            "bb_edge": 0.6,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.28
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "641927",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 86,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 86,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 83.59642061883363,
              "release_spin_rate": 2144.642798259914,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 86,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 83.59642061883363,
                "release_spin_rate": 2144.642798259914,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 83.5964,
              "release_spin_rate": 2144.6428,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.28,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -2.0,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.2811,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0239,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9411,
          "walk_factor": 0.952,
          "homer_factor": 1.0495,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.009,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "641927",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0239,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0239,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.952,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0495,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9411,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 1,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 20,
      "Pitches": 80,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 5",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +5; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 7",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +7."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was +2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260926_TEX@MIN.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}