Continuous postgame learning

daily_20260924 · dates 20260924 · generated 2026-09-25T09:00:17.492461+00:00

8-4

Winner picks · 66.7%

Comparable starters · 0 identity mismatches

14/24

Starter ER within ±1

16/24

Starter workload within ±1 inning

Slate coverage

Every calendar day in the requested window is listed. Pending means the prediction exists but the official final result has not settled; Missing review artifact identifies a data gap instead of hiding the day.

Date	Games	Settled	Pending	Hits	Misses	Calibration traces	Review status	Pipeline versions
20260924	12	12	0	8	4	12	Available	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Prioritized optimization roadmap

Runtime evidence for the six recommendations. “Observed games” counts artifacts generated with the relevant trace; older artifacts remain honestly blank.

Priority	Change	Status	Observed games	Evidence
P1	Empirical Confidence Blend	Implemented And Applied	12	applied games: 12formula: w_emp=min(0.5,sample_size/200); final=(1-w_emp)raw+w_empempirical_hit_rate
P1	H2H Base Feature	Implemented And Monitored	12	available games: 12
P2	Score Distribution Widening	Implemented Above 1.4X	12	variance multipliers: [2.15]
P2	Simulation Flip Control	Diagnostic Only Without Independent Support	12	simulation flip candidates: 0published flips: 0
P3	Recent Form Quality Blend	Implemented Last 10	12	configured window: 10last 10 games: 12observed windows: [10]
P3	Continuous Calibration Audit	Implemented	12	settled games: 12metric: bucket_calibration_error

Confidence calibration by bucket

bucket_calibration_error = average published confidence − observed hit rate. Positive means overconfident; negative means underconfident. Weighted absolute error: 0.1701.

Bucket	Games	Average confidence	Observed hit rate	Calibration error	Direction
0.50-0.55	8	52.5%	75.0%	-22.5%	underconfident
0.55-0.60	4	56.0%	50.0%	6.0%	overconfident

Where the score pipeline gained or lost quality

Direct comparison against official final runs. Positive deltas mean the stage was worse than historical_ml; this is score error, not a synthetic one-game ERA.

Stage	Games	Team-run MAE	Total-run MAE	Margin MAE	Winner accuracy	Δ team MAE vs base	Δ margin MAE vs base
historical_ml	12	2.5701	4.2504	2.2131	75.0%	0.0	0.0
variance_applied	12	2.5	4.1667	2.1667	50.0%	-0.0701	-0.0464
enhanced_prediction	12	2.1667	3.8333	2.0	66.7%	-0.4034	-0.2131
embedded_savant_run_environment	12	2.2083	3.75	2.0833	66.7%	-0.3618	-0.1298
fundamental_edge_target_review	12	2.2083	3.75	2.0833	66.7%	-0.3618	-0.1298
capped_target	12	2.2083	3.75	2.0833	66.7%	-0.3618	-0.1298
simulation_result	12	2.2083	3.75	2.0833	66.7%	-0.3618	-0.1298
published_final	12	2.2083	3.75	2.0833	66.7%	-0.3618	-0.1298

Largest measured regression

{
  "stage": "variance_applied",
  "games": 12,
  "team_run_mae": 2.5,
  "total_run_mae": 4.1667,
  "margin_mae": 2.1667,
  "winner_hits": 6,
  "winner_accuracy": 0.5,
  "team_run_mae_delta_vs_historical_ml": -0.0701,
  "margin_mae_delta_vs_historical_ml": -0.0464
}

Automatic questions

Which recorded score stage reinforced losing picks?

partial_attribution sample=4

Largest positive recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. Positive, negative, net, absolute, and unchanged movements are shown separately so opposite games cannot cancel into a misleading zero. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution.

Stage	Positive Toward Pick Run Delta	Negative Away From Pick Run Delta	Net Toward Pick Run Delta	Absolute Run Movement	Games Recorded	Games Supporting Pick	Games Opposing Pick	Games Unchanged	Meaning
enhanced_prediction	1.0	-1.0	0.0	2.0	4	1	1	2	reinforced final pick
embedded_savant_run_environment	1.0	0.0	1.0	1.0	4	1	0	3	reinforced final pick
variance_applied	0.6994	-0.575	0.1244	1.2744	4	3	1	0	reinforced final pick
fundamental_edge_target_review	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	4	0	0	4	recorded but did not change score margin
capped_target	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	4	0	0	4	recorded but did not change score margin
simulation_result	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	4	0	0	4	recorded but did not change score margin

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "partial_attribution",
  "sample_size": 4,
  "top_stage": "enhanced_prediction",
  "ranking": [
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -1.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 2.0,
      "games_recorded": 4,
      "games_supporting_pick": 1,
      "games_opposing_pick": 1,
      "games_unchanged": 2,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 1.0,
      "games_recorded": 4,
      "games_supporting_pick": 1,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 3,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.6994,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -0.575,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.1244,
      "absolute_run_movement": 1.2744,
      "games_recorded": 4,
      "games_supporting_pick": 3,
      "games_opposing_pick": 1,
      "games_unchanged": 0,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 4,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 4,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 4,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 4,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 4,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 4,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    }
  ],
  "interpretation": "Largest positive recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. Positive, negative, net, absolute, and unchanged movements are shown separately so opposite games cannot cancel into a misleading zero. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution."
}

Which recorded score stage reinforced winning picks?

partial_attribution sample=8

Stage	Positive Toward Pick Run Delta	Negative Away From Pick Run Delta	Net Toward Pick Run Delta	Absolute Run Movement	Games Recorded	Games Supporting Pick	Games Opposing Pick	Games Unchanged	Meaning
enhanced_prediction	3.0	-1.0	2.0	4.0	8	2	1	5	reinforced final pick
embedded_savant_run_environment	2.0	0.0	2.0	2.0	8	2	0	6	reinforced final pick
variance_applied	1.429	-0.747	0.682	2.176	8	6	2	0	reinforced final pick
fundamental_edge_target_review	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	8	0	0	8	recorded but did not change score margin
capped_target	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	8	0	0	8	recorded but did not change score margin
simulation_result	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	8	0	0	8	recorded but did not change score margin

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "partial_attribution",
  "sample_size": 8,
  "top_stage": "enhanced_prediction",
  "ranking": [
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 3.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -1.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 2.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 4.0,
      "games_recorded": 8,
      "games_supporting_pick": 2,
      "games_opposing_pick": 1,
      "games_unchanged": 5,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 2.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 2.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 2.0,
      "games_recorded": 8,
      "games_supporting_pick": 2,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 6,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.429,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -0.747,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.682,
      "absolute_run_movement": 2.176,
      "games_recorded": 8,
      "games_supporting_pick": 6,
      "games_opposing_pick": 2,
      "games_unchanged": 0,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 8,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 8,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 8,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 8,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 8,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 8,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    }
  ],
  "interpretation": "Largest positive recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. Positive, negative, net, absolute, and unchanged movements are shown separately so opposite games cannot cancel into a misleading zero. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution."
}

Are Overs performing worse than Unders?

not_measurable sample=0

The current artifacts contain predicted totals but no total line, Over/Under selection, price, or settled total bet.

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "The current artifacts contain predicted totals but no total line, Over/Under selection, price, or settled total bet.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "total_line",
    "total_selection",
    "odds",
    "settled_result"
  ]
}

Are hitter props outperforming pitcher props?

not_measurable sample=0

Player stat projections are not stored as priced, selected, and settled prop predictions.

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "Player stat projections are not stored as priced, selected, and settled prop predictions.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "prop_family",
    "prop_line",
    "selection",
    "odds",
    "settled_result"
  ]
}

Which sportsbooks produce better opportunities?

not_measurable sample=0

No settled prediction was linked to a sportsbook snapshot.

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "No settled prediction was linked to a sportsbook snapshot.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "sportsbook",
    "selection_odds",
    "settled_profit"
  ],
  "books": []
}

Which confidence ranges underperform?

insufficient_sample sample=12

Range	Sample Size	Hits	Misses	Accuracy
[0.000, 0.525)	4	2	2	0.5
[0.525, 0.550)	4	4	0	1.0
[0.550, 0.600)	4	2	2	0.5
[0.600, 1.010)	0	0	0

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 12,
  "minimum_recommended_sample": 20,
  "worst_observed_range": {
    "range": "[0.000, 0.525)",
    "sample_size": 4,
    "hits": 2,
    "misses": 2,
    "accuracy": 0.5
  },
  "ranges": [
    {
      "range": "[0.000, 0.525)",
      "sample_size": 4,
      "hits": 2,
      "misses": 2,
      "accuracy": 0.5
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.525, 0.550)",
      "sample_size": 4,
      "hits": 4,
      "misses": 0,
      "accuracy": 1.0
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.550, 0.600)",
      "sample_size": 4,
      "hits": 2,
      "misses": 2,
      "accuracy": 0.5
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.600, 1.010)",
      "sample_size": 0,
      "hits": 0,
      "misses": 0,
      "accuracy": null
    }
  ]
}

Which monitored features are drifting?

insufficient_sample sample=12

Three slates are descriptive only and cannot establish statistical feature drift.

Date	Sample Size	Mean Confidence	Mean Predicted Total	Accuracy
20260924	12	0.5365	9.4167	0.6667

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 12,
  "minimum_baseline_sample": 30,
  "minimum_recent_sample": 20,
  "reason": "Three slates are descriptive only and cannot establish statistical feature drift.",
  "daily_monitors": [
    {
      "date": "20260924",
      "sample_size": 12,
      "mean_confidence": 0.5365,
      "mean_predicted_total": 9.4167,
      "accuracy": 0.6667
    }
  ],
  "features_monitored": [
    "confidence",
    "predicted_total",
    "winner_accuracy"
  ]
}

Which model version introduced errors?

insufficient_sample sample=12

Version error claims require at least 30 settled predictions per version.

Pipeline Version	Model Schema Version	Policy Version	Sample Size	Hits	Misses	Accuracy
enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	historical_game_temporal_v11	model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3	12	8	4	0.6667

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 12,
  "minimum_sample_per_version": 30,
  "versions": [
    {
      "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "sample_size": 12,
      "hits": 8,
      "misses": 4,
      "accuracy": 0.6667
    }
  ],
  "reason": "Version error claims require at least 30 settled predictions per version."
}

Game processing context

How each game moved from the historical model through confidence calibration, H2H and recent-form signals, score distribution and simulation policy. Postgame learning is added only after the official result settles.

20260924_ARI@COL

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickARI

Published scoreARI 6 - 5 COL

Final confidence56.0%

Calibrationraw 72.6% → blended 63.8%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.1% · weight 50.0% · n=205

H2H base featurehome net -13.0 · absolute 13.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -1.1569

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	5.637397707968-3.6671756047918995	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	6-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	6-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	6-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	6-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	6-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	6-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "ARI",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": -0.12,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.56,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.44,
    "away_win_probability": 0.56
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.12,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "ARI wins 6-5",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "ARI 6 - 5 COL",
    "confidence": 0.56,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.725789,
    "sample_size": 205,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5512,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.638495,
    "published_confidence": 0.56,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -13.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 13.0,
    "home_average_margin": -2.6,
    "home_run_delta": -0.075,
    "away_run_delta": 0.075,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -9.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -1.4589,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.596,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -1.1569
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.01439676630418284
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 7,
        "probability": 0.014283674296652005
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.0139300487889791
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 7,
        "probability": 0.01382062302285477
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.013516662469649917
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04217339762812111,
      "1": 0.0640003165874018,
      "2": 0.0882303192003646,
      "3": 0.11049580112576303,
      "4": 0.12570886233904058,
      "5": 0.1299206586334214,
      "6": 0.12197834246099762,
      "7": 0.10403499195920335,
      "8": 0.0806061808884701,
      "9": 0.056734789537886465,
      "10": 0.036276280216041845,
      "11": 0.021071150264602864,
      "12": 0.011118493254003324,
      "13": 0.00532961485783184,
      "14": 0.002320801046850093
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.025203700462339964,
      "1": 0.03869546020249009,
      "2": 0.05523982178387775,
      "3": 0.0733231421442314,
      "4": 0.09049538098489816,
      "5": 0.1038504311743283,
      "6": 0.11081198675881211,
      "7": 0.10994151697578915,
      "8": 0.1014222532613211,
      "9": 0.08699640990103785,
      "10": 0.06938505758076159,
      "11": 0.05145494536286701,
      "12": 0.03548010005735776,
      "13": 0.022747784043978238,
      "14": 0.01356094340581064,
      "15": 0.007516873758657749,
      "16": 0.003874192141440942
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "ARI 6 - 5 COL",
      "winner": "ARI"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "ARI 6 - 5 COL",
      "winner": "ARI"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.1533,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.666,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
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      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "ARI",
      "model_winner": "ARI",
      "simulation_winner": "ARI",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 6,
        "published_winner": "ARI",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667,
        "draw_majority_team": "ARI",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
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      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 5
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    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
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      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
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    "internal_signal_score": 0.6639,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
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    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
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      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.596,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.1533,
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      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.1667,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.1667,
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      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 6,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 12,
        "range": 6
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    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
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      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-24T19:10:00+00:00",
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        "run_differential_edge_per_game": -1.2025,
        "win_pct_edge": -0.1709,
        "quality_edge": -1.1569,
        "season_quality_edge": -1.4589,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
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          "recent_window": 10,
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          "recent_quality_edge": -0.596,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": -1.1569
        },
        "margin_adjustment": -0.4859,
        "reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
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          "cap": 1.4,
          "scale": 0.42,
          "quality_edge": -1.1569,
          "season_quality_edge": -1.4589,
          "recent_alignment": "aligned",
          "large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": false,
          "method": "standard_bounded_season_recent_adjustment"
        },
        "adjusted_score": {
          "away_runs": 9.046,
          "home_runs": 1.655,
          "home_win_probability": 0.08
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      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
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        "home_distribution": {
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    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
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  "score_evolution": [
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      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260924_CHW@KC

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickCHW

Published scoreCHW 7 - 5 KC

Final confidence54.5%

Calibrationraw 74.1% → blended 65.7%

Empirical signalhit rate 57.4% · weight 50.0% · n=422

H2H base featurehome net -23.0 · absolute 23.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.9229

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	5.016832231717585-4.501236962595471	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	7-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, starter_quality_favours_the_other_side, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	7-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	7-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	7-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	7-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "CHW",
    "away_runs": 7,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": -0.08924,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.54462,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.45538,
    "away_win_probability": 0.54462
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.08924,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "CHW wins 7-5",
    "away_runs": 7,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 7,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "CHW 7 - 5 KC",
    "confidence": 0.5446204099999999,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.740741,
    "sample_size": 422,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5735,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.65712,
    "published_confidence": 0.54462,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -23.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 23.0,
    "home_average_margin": -4.6,
    "home_run_delta": -0.1327,
    "away_run_delta": 0.1327,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -21.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -1.0601,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.668,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.9229
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  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
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        "away_runs": 7,
        "probability": 0.01379351015036055
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.013612021151675183
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    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.039843393141624245,
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      "3": 0.10588574826790544,
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      "13": 0.00657578673400541,
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    "away_distribution": {
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      "3": 0.06751039340886593,
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      "17": 0.0026947218241717688,
      "18": 0.0012710387094807026
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    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "CHW 7 - 5 KC",
      "winner": "CHW"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "CHW 7 - 5 KC",
      "winner": "CHW"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0461,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.738,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "CHW",
      "model_winner": "CHW",
      "simulation_winner": "CHW",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 6,
        "published_winner": "CHW",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667,
        "draw_majority_team": "CHW",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
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      },
      "simulation_score": {
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        "home_runs": 5
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    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.9229,
      "winner": "CHW",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 7,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "CHW",
    "display_confidence": 0.5446,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6688,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5446,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.9229,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.668,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0461,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.6667,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.3333,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.1667,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 5,
        "median": 8,
        "max": 9,
        "range": 4
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
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      "parent_config_id": "candidate-982561b127534866",
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        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
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  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
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    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
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        "risk_tier": "low",
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    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
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    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-24T17:36:43.212988+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-24T18:10:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
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      "home_win_probability": 0.412509,
      "confidence": 0.587491,
      "predicted_score": {
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    },
    {
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    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
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    }
  ]
}

20260924_CIN@ATL

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickATL

Published scoreCIN 5 - 7 ATL

Final confidence56.0%

Calibrationraw 66.4% → blended 61.0%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.6% · weight 50.0% · n=277

H2H base featurehome net 3.0 · absolute 3.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 1.445

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.757130488075151-5.678527974623611	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-6	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-6	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-7	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-7	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-7	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-7	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "ATL",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 7,
    "confidence": 0.12,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.56,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.56,
    "away_win_probability": 0.44
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.12,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "ATL wins 7-5",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 7
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 7,
    "predicted_score_text": "CIN 5 - 7 ATL",
    "confidence": 0.56,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.6636,
    "sample_size": 277,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.556,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.6098,
    "published_confidence": 0.56,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 3.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 3.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.6,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0173,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0173,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
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      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
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  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 1.943,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.52,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 1.445
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.016224951656900445
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.015948593655984826
      },
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        "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
        "raw_confidence": 0.6636,
        "sample_size": 277,
        "empirical_hit_rate": 0.556,
        "empirical_weight": 0.5,
        "blended_confidence": 0.6098
      },
      "confidence_governor": {
        "applied": true,
        "policy": "align_to_calibrated_probability_v2",
        "raw_confidence": 0.56,
        "final_confidence": 0.5973,
        "calibrated_pick_probability": 0.5973,
        "shrinkage_weight": 0.960339,
        "hard_maximum": 0.9,
        "confidence_floor": 0.505,
        "score_gap": 0.6,
        "calibration_sample_size": 277,
        "calibration_empirical_hit_rate": 0.556,
        "calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.5525,
        "calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
        "season_quality_edge": 1.445,
        "reasons": [
          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability",
          "season run-differential edge supports the pick"
        ],
        "score_coherence": {
          "policy": "probability_follows_published_score_v1",
          "published_score": {
            "away_runs": 5,
            "home_runs": 6
          },
          "margin": 1,
          "probability_before": 0.597344,
          "margin_implied_home_probability": 0.574033,
          "shrinkage_weight": 0.960339,
          "side_flipped": false,
          "applied": true,
          "probability_after": 0.585689,
          "aligned_pick_probability": 0.585689
        },
        "starter_experience": {
          "applied": false,
          "min_starter_games": 26,
          "shrink_factor": 1.0
        }
      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
        "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
        "available": true,
        "sample_size": 5,
        "sample_weight": 0.0577,
        "home_net_margin": 3.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 3.0,
        "home_average_margin": 0.6,
        "home_run_delta": 0.0173,
        "away_run_delta": -0.0173,
        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": 1.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": -4.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": -2.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 3.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 5.0
          }
        ],
        "adaptive_parameters": {
          "h2h.history_limit": 5,
          "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
          "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
          "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
        }
      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "home": {
          "team": "ATL",
          "games": 158,
          "wins": 93,
          "losses": 65,
          "win_pct": 0.5886075949367089,
          "runs_scored": 725,
          "runs_allowed": 608,
          "run_differential": 117,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.740506329113924,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "CIN",
          "games": 158,
          "wins": 73,
          "losses": 85,
          "win_pct": 0.4620253164556962,
          "runs_scored": 648,
          "runs_allowed": 808,
          "run_differential": -160,
          "run_differential_per_game": -1.0126582278481013,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 1.7532,
        "win_pct_edge": 0.1266,
        "quality_edge": 1.445,
        "season_quality_edge": 1.943,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": 1.943,
          "recent_quality_edge": 0.52,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": 1.445
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 0.6069,
        "reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
          "adjustment": 0.6069,
          "cap": 1.4,
          "scale": 0.42,
          "quality_edge": 1.445,
          "season_quality_edge": 1.943,
          "recent_alignment": "aligned",
          "large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": false,
          "method": "standard_bounded_season_recent_adjustment"
        },
        "adjusted_score": {
          "away_runs": 0.777,
          "home_runs": 9.231,
          "home_win_probability": 0.92
        }
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
            "home_runs": 5,
            "away_runs": 5,
            "probability": 0.016224951656900445
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 6,
            "away_runs": 5,
            "probability": 0.015948593655984826
          },
          {
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            "away_runs": 4,
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          },
          {
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            "away_runs": 4,
            "probability": 0.015629990717146262
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 5,
            "probability": 0.015120323220516284
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        ],
        "home_distribution": {
          "0": 0.03604593422849962,
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        "away_distribution": {
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          "9": 0.053091895354141494,
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          "12": 0.009514461363446778,
          "13": 0.004401707651391655,
          "14": 0.0018446643160787504
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.757130488075151,
      "home_runs": 5.678527974623611,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260924_CLE@BOS

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickCLE

Published scoreCLE 4 - 2 BOS

Final confidence50.6%

Calibrationraw 51.0% → blended 52.5%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.0% · weight 50.0% · n=515

H2H base featurehome net 12.0 · absolute 12.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.1714

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.5574637701130385-4.208693786994984	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-3	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-2	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-2	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-2	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-2	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "CLE",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 2,
    "confidence": -0.01238,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.50619,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.49381,
    "away_win_probability": 0.50619
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.01238,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "CLE wins 4-2",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 2
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 2,
    "predicted_score_text": "CLE 4 - 2 BOS",
    "confidence": 0.5061897,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5101,
    "sample_size": 515,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5398,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.52495,
    "published_confidence": 0.50619,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 12.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 12.0,
    "home_average_margin": 2.4,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0692,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0692,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 8.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.5222,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.48,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.1714
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.030435048036703844
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.028713710154834843
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.0283213963507499
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.027947185636948924
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.027414073278234342
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.09072069864660767,
      "1": 0.13315616195766497,
      "2": 0.1660852443341064,
      "3": 0.17604177106472216,
      "4": 0.15856791177652801,
      "5": 0.12137515094944164,
      "6": 0.0789512767527257,
      "7": 0.04364187795410014,
      "8": 0.020500412589860167,
      "9": 0.008183454486736354,
      "10": 0.002776039487506855
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.08691496285519837,
      "1": 0.12792174103305415,
      "2": 0.16087884244437348,
      "3": 0.1728853774455287,
      "4": 0.15875314970941798,
      "5": 0.12456361318757192,
      "6": 0.0835150609401148,
      "7": 0.0478457278855756,
      "8": 0.023422124658549936,
      "9": 0.009797475105925485,
      "10": 0.0035019247346895583
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "score_text": "CLE 4 - 2 BOS",
      "winner": "CLE"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "score_text": "CLE 4 - 2 BOS",
      "winner": "CLE"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.014,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.41,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "winner": "CLE",
      "model_winner": "CLE",
      "simulation_winner": "CLE",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "CLE",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "CLE",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 2
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 2
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.1714,
      "winner": "CLE",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 2,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "CLE",
    "display_confidence": 0.5062,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5992,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5062,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.1714,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.48,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.014,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 7,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 7,
        "range": 0
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-c1d5650d9262b3dc",
      "config_hash": "sha256:da7e1fc0092c8fca4370044eb58fa5897f6ef528f3b1de083f3bc7a60a53c065",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-982561b127534866",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-24T09:06:53.755755+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 2.15,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
        "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
        "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
        "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
        "context.lineup_context_min": 0.8,
        "context.lineup_context_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
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      "home_runs": 2,
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    },
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    },
    {
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    },
    {
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    }
  ]
}

20260924_HOU@OAK

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickHOU

Published scoreHOU 7 - 5 OAK

Final confidence56.0%

Calibrationraw 73.0% → blended 63.9%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.7% · weight 50.0% · n=225

H2H base featurehome net -8.0 · absolute 8.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.8484

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	5.715862166826688-3.8038099980312245	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	6-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	7-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	7-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	7-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	7-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	7-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "HOU",
    "away_runs": 7,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": -0.12,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.56,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.44,
    "away_win_probability": 0.56
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.12,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "HOU wins 7-5 (Extra Innings - 10)",
    "away_runs": 7,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 7,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "HOU 7 - 5 OAK",
    "confidence": 0.56,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.730339,
    "sample_size": 225,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5467,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.638519,
    "published_confidence": 0.56,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -8.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 8.0,
    "home_average_margin": -1.6,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0462,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0462,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      },
      {
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            "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
            "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
            "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
            "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
            "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
            "context.lineup_context_min": 0.8,
            "context.lineup_context_weight": 1.0,
            "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
            "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
            "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
            "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
            "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
            "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
            "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
            "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
            "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "diagnostics": {
      "confidence_calibration": {
        "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
        "applied": true,
        "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
        "raw_confidence": 0.730339,
        "sample_size": 225,
        "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5467,
        "empirical_weight": 0.5,
        "blended_confidence": 0.638519
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      "confidence_governor": {
        "applied": true,
        "policy": "align_to_calibrated_probability_v2",
        "raw_confidence": 0.56,
        "final_confidence": 0.6344,
        "calibrated_pick_probability": 0.6344,
        "shrinkage_weight": 0.951852,
        "hard_maximum": 0.9,
        "confidence_floor": 0.505,
        "score_gap": 1.5063,
        "calibration_sample_size": 225,
        "calibration_empirical_hit_rate": 0.5467,
        "calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.5432,
        "calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.8484,
        "reasons": [
          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability"
        ],
        "score_coherence": {
          "policy": "probability_follows_published_score_v1",
          "published_score": {
            "away_runs": 7,
            "home_runs": 5
          },
          "margin": -2,
          "probability_before": 0.365642,
          "margin_implied_home_probability": 0.354461,
          "shrinkage_weight": 0.951852,
          "side_flipped": false,
          "applied": false,
          "magnitude_pull_suppressed": true,
          "probability_after": 0.365642,
          "aligned_pick_probability": 0.634358
        },
        "starter_experience": {
          "applied": false,
          "min_starter_games": 19,
          "shrink_factor": 1.0
        }
      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
        "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
        "available": true,
        "sample_size": 5,
        "sample_weight": 0.0577,
        "home_net_margin": -8.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 8.0,
        "home_average_margin": -1.6,
        "home_run_delta": -0.0462,
        "away_run_delta": 0.0462,
        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": 1.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 1.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": -4.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 5.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": -11.0
          }
        ],
        "adaptive_parameters": {
          "h2h.history_limit": 5,
          "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
          "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
          "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
        }
      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "home": {
          "team": "OAK",
          "games": 158,
          "wins": 63,
          "losses": 95,
          "win_pct": 0.3987341772151899,
          "runs_scored": 686,
          "runs_allowed": 903,
          "run_differential": -217,
          "run_differential_per_game": -1.3734177215189873,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "HOU",
          "games": 158,
          "wins": 78,
          "losses": 80,
          "win_pct": 0.4936708860759494,
          "runs_scored": 700,
          "runs_allowed": 753,
          "run_differential": -53,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.33544303797468356,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": -1.038,
        "win_pct_edge": -0.0949,
        "quality_edge": -0.8484,
        "season_quality_edge": -1.1804,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": -1.1804,
          "recent_quality_edge": -0.232,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": -0.8484
        },
        "margin_adjustment": -0.3563,
        "reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
          "adjustment": -0.3563,
          "cap": 1.4,
          "scale": 0.42,
          "quality_edge": -0.8484,
          "season_quality_edge": -1.1804,
          "recent_alignment": "aligned",
          "large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": false,
          "method": "standard_bounded_season_recent_adjustment"
        },
        "adjusted_score": {
          "away_runs": 7.247,
          "home_runs": 4.175,
          "home_win_probability": 0.2389
        }
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
            "home_runs": 5,
            "away_runs": 7,
            "probability": 0.013443821412242424
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 5,
            "away_runs": 6,
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          },
          {
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            "away_runs": 7,
            "probability": 0.013103894614172103
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          {
            "home_runs": 6,
            "away_runs": 6,
            "probability": 0.012906537415830302
          },
          {
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            "away_runs": 8,
            "probability": 0.012736520503298092
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        ],
        "home_distribution": {
          "0": 0.03716383729862856,
          "1": 0.05659049052478432,
          "2": 0.07881653106857904,
          "3": 0.10040194457399418,
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          "5": 0.1246650136969811,
          "6": 0.12151286092449504,
          "7": 0.10833052624955058,
          "8": 0.08833451103189752,
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          "13": 0.008352037547030936,
          "14": 0.003987288801776334
        },
        "away_distribution": {
          "0": 0.022663625422882402,
          "1": 0.03485744299977399,
          "2": 0.0500263809007776,
          "3": 0.06699464074711861,
          "4": 0.08371792530962335,
          "5": 0.09761898082610974,
          "6": 0.10621540236675105,
          "7": 0.10783956952766116,
          "8": 0.10216595759782539,
          "9": 0.09031745509805258,
          "10": 0.0745031424548283,
          "11": 0.05734755517968684,
          "12": 0.04119008063903058,
          "13": 0.027606273982658452,
          "14": 0.01726475274576977,
          "15": 0.010075122833950116,
          "16": 0.005486277285282192,
          "17": 0.00278767779211843,
          "18": 0.0013217362900993892
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 5.715862166826688,
      "home_runs": 3.8038099980312245,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260924_LAA@SEA

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickSEA

Published scoreLAA 4 - 5 SEA

Final confidence56.0%

Calibrationraw 69.2% → blended 62.1%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.0% · weight 50.0% · n=229

H2H base featurehome net 8.0 · absolute 8.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.4043

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.5277320890660566-5.10270922324052	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "SEA",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.12,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.56,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.56,
    "away_win_probability": 0.44
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.12,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "SEA wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "LAA 4 - 5 SEA",
    "confidence": 0.56,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.692256,
    "sample_size": 229,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5502,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.621228,
    "published_confidence": 0.56,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 8.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 8.0,
    "home_average_margin": 1.6,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0462,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0462,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.3291,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.544,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.4043
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.017910381022075355
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.017859751424455103
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.0172327038371028
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.01718398991749907
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.016496199644683237
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.03406694041287963,
      "1": 0.051982288625744166,
      "2": 0.07284962584698108,
      "3": 0.09376676196006999,
      "4": 0.11084603833671716,
      "5": 0.12034861508468961,
      "6": 0.12000841004112396,
      "7": 0.10990866450249531,
      "8": 0.09244892032547052,
      "9": 0.0714202589111521,
      "10": 0.05067463868894591,
      "11": 0.03302247083998893,
      "12": 0.01976414965696672,
      "13": 0.010864165331267732,
      "14": 0.005484843778427619,
      "15": 0.0025432076570796845
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.0613894153703072,
      "1": 0.09196598188015676,
      "2": 0.1219645137221095,
      "3": 0.14318988070594832,
      "4": 0.14882083195948517,
      "5": 0.13692655792780714,
      "6": 0.11152807749454892,
      "7": 0.08041800649596394,
      "8": 0.051332799800363184,
      "9": 0.029007424033095596,
      "10": 0.014510953049904947,
      "11": 0.006426215309727206,
      "12": 0.0025193422505820737
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "LAA 4 - 5 SEA",
      "winner": "SEA"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "LAA 4 - 5 SEA",
      "winner": "SEA"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.1394,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.614,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "SEA",
      "model_winner": "SEA",
      "simulation_winner": "SEA",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 6,
        "published_winner": "SEA",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.8333,
        "draw_majority_team": "SEA",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.4043,
      "winner": "SEA",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "SEA",
    "display_confidence": 0.56,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.648,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.56,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.4043,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.544,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.1394,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.8333,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.5,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.8333,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 3,
        "median": 6,
        "max": 8,
        "range": 5
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-c1d5650d9262b3dc",
      "config_hash": "sha256:da7e1fc0092c8fca4370044eb58fa5897f6ef528f3b1de083f3bc7a60a53c065",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-982561b127534866",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-24T09:06:53.755755+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 2.15,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
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    {
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    },
    {
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    }
  ]
}

20260924_MIA@CHC

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickCHC

Published scoreMIA 4 - 5 CHC

Final confidence51.9%

Calibrationraw 46.0% → blended 50.7%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.4% · weight 50.0% · n=756

H2H base featurehome net -8.0 · absolute 8.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.6258

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.605789355682878-4.8372261014176825	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

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  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "CHC",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.03807,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.519035,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.519035,
    "away_win_probability": 0.480965
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  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.03807,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "CHC wins 5-4 (Extra Innings - 10)",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5
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  "pre_simulation_target": {
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    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "MIA 4 - 5 CHC",
    "confidence": 0.519034985,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
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  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.4601,
    "sample_size": 756,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5542,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.50715,
    "published_confidence": 0.519035,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -8.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 8.0,
    "home_average_margin": -1.6,
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        "home_margin": -1.0
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    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
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    "home_distribution": {
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    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
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  "simulation_reconciliation": {
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      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
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      "winner": "CHC"
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    "final_simulation_score": {
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      "home_runs": 5,
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      "winner": "CHC"
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    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
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      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.098,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
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    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
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    "total_run_delta": 0,
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    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
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      "home_runs": 5,
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      "model_winner": "CHC",
      "simulation_winner": "CHC",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 3,
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        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667,
        "draw_majority_team": "CHC",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
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      "simulation_realized_target": true,
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      "simulation_score": {
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    "final_margin_quality_review": {
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      "pre_margin": 1,
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      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
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      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
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  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "CHC",
    "display_confidence": 0.519,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6162,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.519,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
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      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0807,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.6667,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
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      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.3333,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 5,
        "median": 8,
        "max": 9,
        "range": 4
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    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
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            "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
            "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
            "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
            "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
            "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
            "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
            "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
            "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
            "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
            "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
            "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
            "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
            "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
            "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
            "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
            "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
            "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
            "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
            "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
            "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
            "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
            "context.lineup_context_min": 0.8,
            "context.lineup_context_weight": 1.0,
            "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
            "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
            "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
            "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
            "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
            "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
            "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
            "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
            "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
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        }
      }
    },
    "diagnostics": {
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        "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
        "applied": true,
        "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
        "raw_confidence": 0.4601,
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        "policy": "align_to_calibrated_probability_v2",
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        "calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.553,
        "calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
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        "reasons": [
          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability"
        ],
        "score_coherence": {
          "policy": "probability_follows_published_score_v1",
          "published_score": {
            "away_runs": 4,
            "home_runs": 5
          },
          "margin": 1,
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          "shrinkage_weight": 0.984884,
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        "starter_experience": {
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          "min_starter_games": 21,
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      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
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        "home_net_margin": -8.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 8.0,
        "home_average_margin": -1.6,
        "home_run_delta": -0.0462,
        "away_run_delta": 0.0462,
        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": -1.0
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          {
            "home_margin": -6.0
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          {
            "home_margin": -7.0
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          {
            "home_margin": 1.0
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          {
            "home_margin": 5.0
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      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
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        "home": {
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          "losses": 71,
          "win_pct": 0.5506329113924051,
          "runs_scored": 839,
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          "run_differential": 145,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.9177215189873418,
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        },
        "away": {
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          "games": 158,
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          "losses": 80,
          "win_pct": 0.4936708860759494,
          "runs_scored": 703,
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          "run_differential": 4,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.02531645569620253,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 0.8924,
        "win_pct_edge": 0.057,
        "quality_edge": 0.6258,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.9778,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
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          "recent_quality_edge": -0.028,
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          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "conflict",
          "blended_quality_edge": 0.6258
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 0.2628,
        "reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
          "adjustment": 0.2628,
          "cap": 1.4,
          "scale": 0.42,
          "quality_edge": 0.6258,
          "season_quality_edge": 0.9778,
          "recent_alignment": "conflict",
          "large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": false,
          "method": "standard_bounded_season_recent_adjustment"
        },
        "adjusted_score": {
          "away_runs": 3.806,
          "home_runs": 4.376,
          "home_win_probability": 0.5484
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      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
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        ],
        "home_distribution": {
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          "11": 0.00890024727237316,
          "12": 0.0037721780275351063
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.605789355682878,
      "home_runs": 4.8372261014176825,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260924_MIL@PHI

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickMIL

Published scoreMIL 5 - 4 PHI

Final confidence53.9%

Calibrationraw 59.9% → blended 57.8%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.7% · weight 50.0% · n=684

H2H base featurehome net -10.0 · absolute 10.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.955

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.560245375889323-3.8725780447560214	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIL",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": -0.07842,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.53921,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.46079,
    "away_win_probability": 0.53921
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.07842,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIL wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "MIL 5 - 4 PHI",
    "confidence": 0.5392100750000001,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.598991,
    "sample_size": 684,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.557,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.577996,
    "published_confidence": 0.53921,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -10.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 10.0,
    "home_average_margin": -2.0,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0577,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0577,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -6.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -1.2215,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.46,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.955
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02067453283365242
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.02032381664148272
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.020065780159342978
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.01972539065371197
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.018894117637333303
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06320482560435103,
      "1": 0.09456820179238254,
      "2": 0.12494962158772885,
      "3": 0.14578729563260306,
      "4": 0.15021016907145937,
      "5": 0.13667022535840367,
      "6": 0.1098103830791064,
      "7": 0.07791262257548115,
      "8": 0.04881655863213836,
      "9": 0.02700980306634653,
      "10": 0.013196859580078941,
      "11": 0.005693963699863035,
      "12": 0.002169470320057257
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05047343361311109,
      "1": 0.07617115133689235,
      "2": 0.10327106681742092,
      "3": 0.12578454410995848,
      "4": 0.13763737143400018,
      "5": 0.1353025348890599,
      "6": 0.11949121294572429,
      "7": 0.09480396022155445,
      "8": 0.06757366312928156,
      "9": 0.043270201609812216,
      "10": 0.02489206052524471,
      "11": 0.012864510067248352,
      "12": 0.005972912151957583,
      "13": 0.002491377148733949
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "MIL 5 - 4 PHI",
      "winner": "MIL"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "MIL 5 - 4 PHI",
      "winner": "MIL"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0056,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.53,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "MIL",
      "model_winner": "MIL",
      "simulation_winner": "MIL",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 4,
        "published_winner": "MIL",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.75,
        "draw_majority_team": "MIL",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.955,
      "winner": "MIL",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "MIL",
    "display_confidence": 0.5392,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6244,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5392,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.955,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.46,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0056,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.75,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.25,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.75,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 2,
        "median": 6,
        "max": 9,
        "range": 7
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-c1d5650d9262b3dc",
      "config_hash": "sha256:da7e1fc0092c8fca4370044eb58fa5897f6ef528f3b1de083f3bc7a60a53c065",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-982561b127534866",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-24T09:06:53.755755+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.56,
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      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260924_NYM@TEX

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickNYM

Published scoreNYM 5 - 4 TEX

Final confidence52.1%

Calibrationraw 48.5% → blended 51.2%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.0% · weight 50.0% · n=524

H2H base featurehome net -8.0 · absolute 8.0 · n=2

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.11

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.321852187230532-4.346007229238714	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYM",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": -0.041756,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.520878,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.479122,
    "away_win_probability": 0.520878
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.041756,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYM wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "NYM 5 - 4 TEX",
    "confidence": 0.5208777,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.484874,
    "sample_size": 524,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5401,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.512487,
    "published_confidence": 0.520878,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 2,
    "sample_weight": 0.03,
    "home_net_margin": -8.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 8.0,
    "home_average_margin": -4.0,
    "home_run_delta": -0.06,
    "away_run_delta": 0.06,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.0095,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.332,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.11
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.020696401842226857
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.02008850845860596
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.019750093631245778
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.019244840880597407
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.019169995151526863
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05966652248076004,
      "1": 0.08949011247027157,
      "2": 0.11910038582539374,
      "3": 0.14065172738187146,
      "4": 0.1473909300912483,
      "5": 0.137053533192518,
      "6": 0.11308460877601628,
      "7": 0.08279622787953618,
      "8": 0.05379121944232406,
      "9": 0.031010303434215774,
      "10": 0.015863332569276713,
      "11": 0.00720073170843909,
      "12": 0.002900364748128737
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05266936339449768,
      "1": 0.07937299545634657,
      "2": 0.10715736048494888,
      "3": 0.12960023236543636,
      "4": 0.1404184221472374,
      "5": 0.13629406128429586,
      "6": 0.11851254178198656,
      "7": 0.09231796621064453,
      "8": 0.06442325733484792,
      "9": 0.04027482542802806,
      "10": 0.02255584956298271,
      "11": 0.011316685531051583,
      "12": 0.00508643901769592
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "NYM 5 - 4 TEX",
      "winner": "NYM"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "NYM 5 - 4 TEX",
      "winner": "NYM"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0998,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.018,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "NYM",
      "model_winner": "NYM",
      "simulation_winner": "NYM",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "NYM",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "NYM",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.11,
      "winner": "NYM",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "NYM",
    "display_confidence": 0.5209,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5997,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5209,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.11,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.332,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0998,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.5,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 5,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 7,
        "range": 2
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
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      "parent_config_id": "candidate-982561b127534866",
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      "parameters": {
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        "score.variance_multiplier": 2.15,
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        "recent.window_games": 10,
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        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
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        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
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        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
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        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
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        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
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        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
        "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
        "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
        "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
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        "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
        "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
        "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
        "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
        "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
        "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
        "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
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    }
  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
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    "changes": [
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        "parameter": "confidence.base_cap",
        "old_value": 0.58,
        "new_value": 0.56,
        "risk_tier": "low",
        "evaluation_mode": "enhanced_shadow"
      }
    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
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    ],
    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-24T17:47:24.605105+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-24T18:35:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "away",
      "home_win_probability": 0.475438,
      "confidence": 0.524562,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "total_runs": 8
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      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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            "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
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            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
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            "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
            "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
            "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
            "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
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            "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
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        }
      }
    },
    "candidate_prediction": {
      "predicted_winner": "away",
      "home_win_probability": 0.475438,
      "confidence": 0.524562,
      "predicted_score": {
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        "away_runs": 5,
        "total_runs": 8
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
          "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
          "config_id": "candidate-982561b127534866",
          "config_hash": "sha256:53760a5ddffc6f180dee92a59d27889f1cdba857749a59d2378ee233c5952253",
          "parent_config_id": "candidate-f4c3ec3952acc919",
          "created_at_utc": "2026-09-21T09:05:52.468019+00:00",
          "parameters": {
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            "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
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            "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
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            "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
            "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
            "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
            "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
            "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
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            "simulation.allow_score": true,
            "player.model_weight": 0.5,
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            "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
            "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
            "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
            "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
            "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
            "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
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            "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
            "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
            "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
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            "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
            "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
            "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
            "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
            "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
            "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
            "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
            "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
            "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
            "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
            "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
            "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
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            "context.lineup_context_weight": 1.0,
            "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
            "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
            "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
            "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
            "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
            "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
            "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
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        }
      }
    },
    "diagnostics": {
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        "raw_confidence": 0.484874,
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      "confidence_governor": {
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        "policy": "align_to_calibrated_probability_v2",
        "raw_confidence": 0.512487,
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        "calibration_sample_size": 524,
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        "calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.5387,
        "calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
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        "reasons": [
          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability"
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        "score_coherence": {
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          "published_score": {
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          "margin": -1,
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        "starter_experience": {
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          "min_starter_games": 14,
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      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
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        "sample_size": 2,
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        "home_net_margin": -8.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 8.0,
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        "home_run_delta": -0.06,
        "away_run_delta": 0.06,
        "evidence": [
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        "adaptive_parameters": {
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      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
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        "home": {
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          "games": 158,
          "wins": 78,
          "losses": 80,
          "win_pct": 0.4936708860759494,
          "runs_scored": 658,
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          "run_differential": -42,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.26582278481012656,
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        },
        "away": {
          "team": "NYM",
          "games": 158,
          "wins": 73,
          "losses": 85,
          "win_pct": 0.4620253164556962,
          "runs_scored": 681,
          "runs_allowed": 714,
          "run_differential": -33,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.2088607594936709,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": -0.057,
        "win_pct_edge": 0.0316,
        "quality_edge": 0.11,
        "season_quality_edge": -0.0095,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": -0.0095,
          "recent_quality_edge": 0.332,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "conflict",
          "blended_quality_edge": 0.11
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        "margin_adjustment": 0.0,
        "reason": "season quality edge below action threshold"
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
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        ],
        "home_distribution": {
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        "away_distribution": {
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          "6": 0.11851254178198656,
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          "11": 0.011316685531051583,
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        "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.321852187230532,
      "home_runs": 4.346007229238714,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260924_SD@LAD

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickLAD

Published scoreSD 4 - 5 LAD

Final confidence51.0%

Calibrationraw 51.0% → blended 52.9%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.9% · weight 50.0% · n=689

H2H base featurehome net 4.0 · absolute 4.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.6803

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.470916469863103-4.874281242705484	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "LAD",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.019592,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.509796,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.509796,
    "away_win_probability": 0.490204
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.019592,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "LAD wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "SD 4 - 5 LAD",
    "confidence": 0.5097963775,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5101,
    "sample_size": 689,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5486,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.52935,
    "published_confidence": 0.509796,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 4.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 4.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.8,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0231,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0231,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 7.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 1.0854,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.072,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.6803
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.01828600254744064
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.01827808388698091
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.01808552680520174
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.018077694959743217
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.016632370696392652
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04773391427896599,
      "1": 0.07217045144873978,
      "2": 0.09839242724720419,
      "3": 0.12095777961005333,
      "4": 0.1340836479099121,
      "5": 0.13402558366770026,
      "6": 0.12080070719412504,
      "7": 0.09817956997800228,
      "8": 0.07195196412691617,
      "9": 0.04754819784480317,
      "10": 0.028333181769212287,
      "11": 0.01522392072497899,
      "12": 0.007376112961114932,
      "13": 0.0032225412382714254
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.049473323278532357,
      "1": 0.07471235079318687,
      "2": 0.1014989352444301,
      "3": 0.12404473592162098,
      "4": 0.13637757349596136,
      "5": 0.13488241919964034,
      "6": 0.12000946564949615,
      "7": 0.09605576275441231,
      "8": 0.06916384288124984,
      "9": 0.04480047036469838,
      "10": 0.02610560722661625,
      "11": 0.013684621597194165,
      "12": 0.006453265808624789,
      "13": 0.0027376257843361946
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "SD 4 - 5 LAD",
      "winner": "LAD"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "SD 4 - 5 LAD",
      "winner": "LAD"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0449,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.002,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "LAD",
      "model_winner": "LAD",
      "simulation_winner": "LAD",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "LAD",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5,
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.6803,
      "winner": "LAD",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "LAD",
    "display_confidence": 0.5098,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5486,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5098,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.6803,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.072,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0449,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.5,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.5,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 4,
        "median": 9,
        "max": 9,
        "range": 5
      }
    },
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          "2": 0.1014989352444301,
          "3": 0.12404473592162098,
          "4": 0.13637757349596136,
          "5": 0.13488241919964034,
          "6": 0.12000946564949615,
          "7": 0.09605576275441231,
          "8": 0.06916384288124984,
          "9": 0.04480047036469838,
          "10": 0.02610560722661625,
          "11": 0.013684621597194165,
          "12": 0.006453265808624789,
          "13": 0.0027376257843361946
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.470916469863103,
      "home_runs": 4.874281242705484,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260924_STL@PIT

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickPIT

Published scoreSTL 4 - 5 PIT

Final confidence52.8%

Calibrationraw 51.0% → blended 53.4%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.9% · weight 50.0% · n=682

H2H base featurehome net 0.0 · absolute 0.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.3532

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.788436048325341-5.500705428463004	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-6	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "PIT",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.0551,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.52755,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.52755,
    "away_win_probability": 0.47245
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.0551,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "PIT wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "STL 4 - 5 PIT",
    "confidence": 0.5275496475,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5101,
    "sample_size": 682,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5587,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.5344,
    "published_confidence": 0.52755,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 0.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 0.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.3323,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.392,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.3532
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02081226366379775
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.01988115466374111
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.01964305753488803
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.019628646279969634
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.019448738897863256
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05527235233938568,
      "1": 0.08314814931543317,
      "2": 0.11165846104402682,
      "3": 0.13385207241831928,
      "4": 0.14323626008583368,
      "5": 0.13682808781515637,
      "6": 0.11667879996343887,
      "7": 0.08881842368854992,
      "8": 0.06035435042126447,
      "9": 0.036610740261761435,
      "10": 0.019824527812681268,
      "11": 0.00958278192305989,
      "12": 0.004134992911089104
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.057357500708918915,
      "1": 0.0861624525195108,
      "2": 0.11521437926850878,
      "3": 0.13713746451573797,
      "4": 0.14530024486345913,
      "5": 0.1370368527369205,
      "6": 0.11504538574890458,
      "7": 0.08597295071200058,
      "8": 0.057189363064547624,
      "9": 0.03386331620799585,
      "10": 0.01784861457333401,
      "11": 0.008374142290211129,
      "12": 0.003497332789950093
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "STL 4 - 5 PIT",
      "winner": "PIT"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "STL 4 - 5 PIT",
      "winner": "PIT"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0209,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.462,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "PIT",
      "model_winner": "PIT",
      "simulation_winner": "PIT",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 3,
        "published_winner": "PIT",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667,
        "draw_majority_team": "PIT",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.3532,
      "winner": "PIT",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "PIT",
    "display_confidence": 0.5275,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5796,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5275,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.3532,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.392,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0209,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.6667,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.3333,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.3333,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.3333,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 6,
        "median": 8,
        "max": 11,
        "range": 5
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
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      "parent_config_id": "candidate-982561b127534866",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-24T09:06:53.755755+00:00",
      "parameters": {
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        "recent.window_games": 10,
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        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
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        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
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        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
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        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
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        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
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        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
        "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
        "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
        "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
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        "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
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        "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
        "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
        "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
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        "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
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  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
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        "risk_tier": "low",
        "evaluation_mode": "enhanced_shadow"
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    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
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    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-24T15:36:35.444229+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-24T16:35:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.538131,
      "confidence": 0.538131,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "total_runs": 8
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      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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          "parameters": {
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            "score.variance_multiplier": 2.15,
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            "recent.window_games": 10,
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            "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
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            "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
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            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
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            "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
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            "simulation.allow_score": true,
            "player.model_weight": 0.5,
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            "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
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            "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
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      }
    },
    "candidate_prediction": {
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        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
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            "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
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        "away": {
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      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
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    {
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      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260924_TB@NYY

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickNYY

Published scoreTB 2 - 4 NYY

Final confidence53.1%

Calibrationraw 54.9% → blended 55.1%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.3% · weight 50.0% · n=691

H2H base featurehome net 9.0 · absolute 9.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.185

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.295316691449317-5.235244192728143	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	3-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	2-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	2-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	2-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	2-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYY",
    "away_runs": 2,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": 0.062272,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.531136,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.531136,
    "away_win_probability": 0.468864
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.062272,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYY wins 4-2",
    "away_runs": 2,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 2,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "TB 2 - 4 NYY",
    "confidence": 0.5311363499999999,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.548657,
    "sample_size": 691,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5528,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.550728,
    "published_confidence": 0.531136,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 9.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 9.0,
    "home_average_margin": 1.8,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0519,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0519,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 7.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 8.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.3449,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.112,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.185
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.024285963649880254
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.024277539466072005
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.023964805104349434
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02395649232228163
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.021467001552266655
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06935122731254538,
      "1": 0.10332759783301478,
      "2": 0.13480562413206995,
      "3": 0.15400300198833647,
      "4": 0.15405644025367574,
      "5": 0.1349460034477179,
      "6": 0.10350699306610085,
      "7": 0.06951985445352596,
      "8": 0.04088627193601181,
      "9": 0.021055990118510844,
      "10": 0.009495182580939109,
      "11": 0.0037493887227059257,
      "12": 0.0012964241548452167
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.07224826907150249,
      "1": 0.10743410842246989,
      "2": 0.13934504469218034,
      "3": 0.15764328716079626,
      "4": 0.15555860608545796,
      "5": 0.13388971326066465,
      "6": 0.10051595143725854,
      "7": 0.06581992332097474,
      "8": 0.03759363876441917,
      "9": 0.018728628011678572,
      "10": 0.00813827144656019,
      "11": 0.0030845583260371784
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "TB 2 - 4 NYY",
      "winner": "NYY"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "TB 2 - 4 NYY",
      "winner": "NYY"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0045,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.042,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "NYY",
      "model_winner": "NYY",
      "simulation_winner": "NYY",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 3,
        "published_winner": "NYY",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.3333,
        "draw_majority_team": "TB",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 2,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 2,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
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          "2": 0.13480562413206995,
          "3": 0.15400300198833647,
          "4": 0.15405644025367574,
          "5": 0.1349460034477179,
          "6": 0.10350699306610085,
          "7": 0.06951985445352596,
          "8": 0.04088627193601181,
          "9": 0.021055990118510844,
          "10": 0.009495182580939109,
          "11": 0.0037493887227059257,
          "12": 0.0012964241548452167
        },
        "away_distribution": {
          "0": 0.07224826907150249,
          "1": 0.10743410842246989,
          "2": 0.13934504469218034,
          "3": 0.15764328716079626,
          "4": 0.15555860608545796,
          "5": 0.13388971326066465,
          "6": 0.10051595143725854,
          "7": 0.06581992332097474,
          "8": 0.03759363876441917,
          "9": 0.018728628011678572,
          "10": 0.00813827144656019,
          "11": 0.0030845583260371784
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.295316691449317,
      "home_runs": 5.235244192728143,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

Every reviewed game

Date	Game	Pick	Final confidence	Raw confidence	Empirical hit rate	Empirical weight	Pred A-H	Actual A-H	Result	Largest recorded movement	Pipeline	Roadmap signals
20260924	20260924_ARI@COL	ARI	56.0%	72.6%	55.1%	50.0%	6.0-5.0	12-8	hit	Enhanced Prediction (-1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.725789, "sample_size": 205, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5512, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.638495, "published_confidence": 0.56, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -13.0, "absolute_net_margin": 13.0, "home_average_margin": -2.6, "home_run_delta": -0.075, "away_run_delta": 0.075, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": -5.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": -9.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -1.4589, "recent_quality_edge": -0.596, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -1.1569 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.01439676630418284 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.014283674296652005 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.0139300487889791 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.01382062302285477 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.013516662469649917 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.04217339762812111, "1": 0.0640003165874018, "2": 0.0882303192003646, "3": 0.11049580112576303, "4": 0.12570886233904058, "5": 0.1299206586334214, "6": 0.12197834246099762, "7": 0.10403499195920335, "8": 0.0806061808884701, "9": 0.056734789537886465, "10": 0.036276280216041845, "11": 0.021071150264602864, "12": 0.011118493254003324, "13": 0.00532961485783184, "14": 0.002320801046850093 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.025203700462339964, "1": 0.03869546020249009, "2": 0.05523982178387775, "3": 0.0733231421442314, "4": 0.09049538098489816, "5": 0.1038504311743283, "6": 0.11081198675881211, "7": 0.10994151697578915, "8": 0.1014222532613211, "9": 0.08699640990103785, "10": 0.06938505758076159, "11": 0.05145494536286701, "12": 0.03548010005735776, "13": 0.022747784043978238, "14": 0.01356094340581064, "15": 0.007516873758657749, "16": 0.003874192141440942 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "ARI 6 - 5 COL", "winner": "ARI" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "ARI 6 - 5 COL", "winner": "ARI" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.1533, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.666, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "ARI", "model_winner": "ARI", "simulation_winner": "ARI", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "ARI", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667, "draw_majority_team": "ARI", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 1.1569, "winner": "ARI", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260924	20260924_CHW@KC	CHW	54.5%	74.1%	57.4%	50.0%	7.0-5.0	9-1	hit	Enhanced Prediction (2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.740741, "sample_size": 422, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5735, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.65712, "published_confidence": 0.54462, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -23.0, "absolute_net_margin": 23.0, "home_average_margin": -4.6, "home_run_delta": -0.1327, "away_run_delta": 0.1327, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -21.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -1.0601, "recent_quality_edge": -0.668, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.9229 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.01379351015036055 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.013612021151675183 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.013177266329399013 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.013157957290284083 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 8, "probability": 0.013038733397839838 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.039843393141624245, "1": 0.06055999761125719, "2": 0.08388408670337608, "3": 0.10588574826790544, "4": 0.1218034635831074, "5": 0.12768678862662503, "6": 0.12198220772938889, "7": 0.10619674672754484, "8": 0.08425392355871203, "9": 0.060916263212171945, "10": 0.0401365993402652, "11": 0.024099725185583037, "12": 0.013187054642718158, "13": 0.00657578673400541, "14": 0.0029882149357150635 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.022868645092706065, "1": 0.03516754724290363, "2": 0.05044895185656073, "3": 0.06751039340886593, "4": 0.08427476556092274, "5": 0.09813702547305145, "6": 0.10660477327438109, "7": 0.10802613409516316, "8": 0.10211497632669747, "9": 0.09004476535806254, "10": 0.07406890486738502, "11": 0.05683577671363619, "12": 0.04068329299220981, "13": 0.02716556990253174, "14": 0.01692115351750591, "15": 0.00983217350711127, "16": 0.005329390276653028, "17": 0.0026947218241717688, "18": 0.0012710387094807026 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "CHW 7 - 5 KC", "winner": "CHW" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "CHW 7 - 5 KC", "winner": "CHW" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0461, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.738, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "CHW", "model_winner": "CHW", "simulation_winner": "CHW", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "CHW", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667, "draw_majority_team": "CHW", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": 0.9229, "winner": "CHW", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260924	20260924_CIN@ATL	ATL	56.0%	66.4%	55.6%	50.0%	5.0-7.0	7-6	miss	Enhanced Prediction (-1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.6636, "sample_size": 277, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.556, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.6098, "published_confidence": 0.56, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 3.0, "absolute_net_margin": 3.0, "home_average_margin": 0.6, "home_run_delta": 0.0173, "away_run_delta": -0.0173, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": -4.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": 3.0 }, { "home_margin": 5.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 1.943, "recent_quality_edge": 0.52, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 1.445 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.016224951656900445 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.015948593655984826 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.01590082795095461 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.015629990717146262 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.015120323220516284 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.03604593422849962, "1": 0.054930308982711055, "2": 0.07668041295368055, "3": 0.0980558456124846, "4": 0.11486274229876531, "5": 0.1232541403908459, "6": 0.12115476477708245, "7": 0.10909280926428529, "8": 0.08998464285894701, "9": 0.06799192141651622, "10": 0.04706118693564033, "11": 0.02983905627934505, "12": 0.017331012516079877, "13": 0.009221029965428456, "14": 0.004494191519688387 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.0442746536825632, "1": 0.06709376889586595, "2": 0.09210185310988935, "3": 0.11452853691023365, "4": 0.12900846900990245, "5": 0.13163818761341567, "6": 0.12167594605501665, "7": 0.10187948321475972, "8": 0.07727302241776755, "9": 0.053091895354141494, "10": 0.033043628009266295, "11": 0.018629722396260675, "12": 0.009514461363446778, "13": 0.004401707651391655, "14": 0.0018446643160787504 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 7, "score_text": "CIN 5 - 7 ATL", "winner": "ATL" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 7, "score_text": "CIN 5 - 7 ATL", "winner": "ATL" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.032, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.59, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 7, "winner": "ATL", "model_winner": "ATL", "simulation_winner": "ATL", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "ATL", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "ATL", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 7 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 7 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": 1.445, "winner": "ATL", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 7, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260924	20260924_CLE@BOS	CLE	50.6%	51.0%	54.0%	50.0%	4.0-2.0	1-0	hit	Embedded Savant Run Environment (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.5101, "sample_size": 515, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5398, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.52495, "published_confidence": 0.50619, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 12.0, "absolute_net_margin": 12.0, "home_average_margin": 2.4, "home_run_delta": 0.0692, "away_run_delta": -0.0692, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": 5.0 }, { "home_margin": 8.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.5222, "recent_quality_edge": -0.48, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.1714 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.030435048036703844 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.028713710154834843 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.0283213963507499 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.027947185636948924 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.027414073278234342 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.09072069864660767, "1": 0.13315616195766497, "2": 0.1660852443341064, "3": 0.17604177106472216, "4": 0.15856791177652801, "5": 0.12137515094944164, "6": 0.0789512767527257, "7": 0.04364187795410014, "8": 0.020500412589860167, "9": 0.008183454486736354, "10": 0.002776039487506855 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.08691496285519837, "1": 0.12792174103305415, "2": 0.16087884244437348, "3": 0.1728853774455287, "4": 0.15875314970941798, "5": 0.12456361318757192, "6": 0.0835150609401148, "7": 0.0478457278855756, "8": 0.023422124658549936, "9": 0.009797475105925485, "10": 0.0035019247346895583 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 2, "score_text": "CLE 4 - 2 BOS", "winner": "CLE" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 2, "score_text": "CLE 4 - 2 BOS", "winner": "CLE" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.014, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.41, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 2, "winner": "CLE", "model_winner": "CLE", "simulation_winner": "CLE", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "CLE", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "CLE", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 2 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 2 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": -0.1714, "winner": "CLE", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 2, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260924	20260924_HOU@OAK	HOU	56.0%	73.0%	54.7%	50.0%	7.0-5.0	7-5	hit	Variance Applied (0.0879)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.730339, "sample_size": 225, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5467, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.638519, "published_confidence": 0.56, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -8.0, "absolute_net_margin": 8.0, "home_average_margin": -1.6, "home_run_delta": -0.0462, "away_run_delta": 0.0462, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": -4.0 }, { "home_margin": 5.0 }, { "home_margin": -11.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -1.1804, "recent_quality_edge": -0.232, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.8484 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.013443821412242424 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.013241344590881379 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.013103894614172103 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.012906537415830302 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 8, "probability": 0.012736520503298092 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.03716383729862856, "1": 0.05659049052478432, "2": 0.07881653106857904, "3": 0.10040194457399418, "4": 0.11698168746868688, "5": 0.1246650136969811, "6": 0.12151286092449504, "7": 0.10833052624955058, "8": 0.08833451103189752, "9": 0.06588111119067933, "10": 0.0449409627239228, "11": 0.028039791332623795, "12": 0.016001405566369545, "13": 0.008352037547030936, "14": 0.003987288801776334 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.022663625422882402, "1": 0.03485744299977399, "2": 0.0500263809007776, "3": 0.06699464074711861, "4": 0.08371792530962335, "5": 0.09761898082610974, "6": 0.10621540236675105, "7": 0.10783956952766116, "8": 0.10216595759782539, "9": 0.09031745509805258, "10": 0.0745031424548283, "11": 0.05734755517968684, "12": 0.04119008063903058, "13": 0.027606273982658452, "14": 0.01726475274576977, "15": 0.010075122833950116, "16": 0.005486277285282192, "17": 0.00278767779211843, "18": 0.0013217362900993892 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "HOU 7 - 5 OAK", "winner": "HOU" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "HOU 7 - 5 OAK", "winner": "HOU" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0496, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.162, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "HOU", "model_winner": "HOU", "simulation_winner": "HOU", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "HOU", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5, "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": 0.8484, "winner": "HOU", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260924	20260924_LAA@SEA	SEA	56.0%	69.2%	55.0%	50.0%	4.0-5.0	6-4	miss	Variance Applied (-0.575)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.692256, "sample_size": 229, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5502, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.621228, "published_confidence": 0.56, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 8.0, "absolute_net_margin": 8.0, "home_average_margin": 1.6, "home_run_delta": 0.0462, "away_run_delta": -0.0462, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 5.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": 5.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.3291, "recent_quality_edge": 0.544, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.4043 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.017910381022075355 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.017859751424455103 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.0172327038371028 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.01718398991749907 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.016496199644683237 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.03406694041287963, "1": 0.051982288625744166, "2": 0.07284962584698108, "3": 0.09376676196006999, "4": 0.11084603833671716, "5": 0.12034861508468961, "6": 0.12000841004112396, "7": 0.10990866450249531, "8": 0.09244892032547052, "9": 0.0714202589111521, "10": 0.05067463868894591, "11": 0.03302247083998893, "12": 0.01976414965696672, "13": 0.010864165331267732, "14": 0.005484843778427619, "15": 0.0025432076570796845 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.0613894153703072, "1": 0.09196598188015676, "2": 0.1219645137221095, "3": 0.14318988070594832, "4": 0.14882083195948517, "5": 0.13692655792780714, "6": 0.11152807749454892, "7": 0.08041800649596394, "8": 0.051332799800363184, "9": 0.029007424033095596, "10": 0.014510953049904947, "11": 0.006426215309727206, "12": 0.0025193422505820737 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "LAA 4 - 5 SEA", "winner": "SEA" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "LAA 4 - 5 SEA", "winner": "SEA" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.1394, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.614, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "SEA", "model_winner": "SEA", "simulation_winner": "SEA", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "SEA", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.8333, "draw_majority_team": "SEA", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.4043, "winner": "SEA", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260924	20260924_MIA@CHC	CHC	51.9%	46.0%	55.4%	50.0%	4.0-5.0	1-2	hit	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.4601, "sample_size": 756, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5542, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.50715, "published_confidence": 0.519035, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -8.0, "absolute_net_margin": 8.0, "home_average_margin": -1.6, "home_run_delta": -0.0462, "away_run_delta": 0.0462, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -6.0 }, { "home_margin": -7.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": 5.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.9778, "recent_quality_edge": -0.028, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.6258 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.020546606196630235 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.01973532021493096 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01949004873838817 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.019305632001415426 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.019118759767775 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.05437763727599484, "1": 0.08185206049005056, "2": 0.11011908621881367, "3": 0.1324095411534763, "4": 0.14229828356034604, "5": 0.13667961342243728, "6": 0.11733606547975525, "7": 0.09002911897683658, "8": 0.0617387991933848, "9": 0.03784051650711363, "10": 0.020729061136446753, "11": 0.010149062065774697, "12": 0.004441154519569752 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.05641786757699703, "1": 0.08480519903021629, "2": 0.11361745126482618, "3": 0.13567016775173024, "4": 0.14439110355056956, "5": 0.13696615483153599, "6": 0.11579847657677493, "7": 0.08725878923159619, "8": 0.05860467658545647, "9": 0.035081012464733954, "10": 0.01871667583565478, "11": 0.00890024727237316, "12": 0.0037721780275351063 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "MIA 4 - 5 CHC", "winner": "CHC" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "MIA 4 - 5 CHC", "winner": "CHC" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0807, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.098, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "CHC", "model_winner": "CHC", "simulation_winner": "CHC", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "CHC", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667, "draw_majority_team": "CHC", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.6258, "winner": "CHC", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260924	20260924_MIL@PHI	MIL	53.9%	59.9%	55.7%	50.0%	5.0-4.0	5-1	hit	Variance Applied (0.3123)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.598991, "sample_size": 684, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.557, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.577996, "published_confidence": 0.53921, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -10.0, "absolute_net_margin": 10.0, "home_average_margin": -2.0, "home_run_delta": -0.0577, "away_run_delta": 0.0577, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": -4.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": -6.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -1.2215, "recent_quality_edge": -0.46, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.955 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02067453283365242 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.02032381664148272 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.020065780159342978 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01972539065371197 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.018894117637333303 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.06320482560435103, "1": 0.09456820179238254, "2": 0.12494962158772885, "3": 0.14578729563260306, "4": 0.15021016907145937, "5": 0.13667022535840367, "6": 0.1098103830791064, "7": 0.07791262257548115, "8": 0.04881655863213836, "9": 0.02700980306634653, "10": 0.013196859580078941, "11": 0.005693963699863035, "12": 0.002169470320057257 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.05047343361311109, "1": 0.07617115133689235, "2": 0.10327106681742092, "3": 0.12578454410995848, "4": 0.13763737143400018, "5": 0.1353025348890599, "6": 0.11949121294572429, "7": 0.09480396022155445, "8": 0.06757366312928156, "9": 0.043270201609812216, "10": 0.02489206052524471, "11": 0.012864510067248352, "12": 0.005972912151957583, "13": 0.002491377148733949 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "MIL 5 - 4 PHI", "winner": "MIL" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "MIL 5 - 4 PHI", "winner": "MIL" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0056, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.53, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "MIL", "model_winner": "MIL", "simulation_winner": "MIL", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 4, "published_winner": "MIL", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.75, "draw_majority_team": "MIL", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.955, "winner": "MIL", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260924	20260924_NYM@TEX	NYM	52.1%	48.5%	54.0%	50.0%	5.0-4.0	1-3	miss	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.484874, "sample_size": 524, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5401, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.512487, "published_confidence": 0.520878, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 2, "sample_weight": 0.03, "home_net_margin": -8.0, "absolute_net_margin": 8.0, "home_average_margin": -4.0, "home_run_delta": -0.06, "away_run_delta": 0.06, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -5.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.0095, "recent_quality_edge": 0.332, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.11 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.020696401842226857 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.02008850845860596 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.019750093631245778 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.019244840880597407 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.019169995151526863 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.05966652248076004, "1": 0.08949011247027157, "2": 0.11910038582539374, "3": 0.14065172738187146, "4": 0.1473909300912483, "5": 0.137053533192518, "6": 0.11308460877601628, "7": 0.08279622787953618, "8": 0.05379121944232406, "9": 0.031010303434215774, "10": 0.015863332569276713, "11": 0.00720073170843909, "12": 0.002900364748128737 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.05266936339449768, "1": 0.07937299545634657, "2": 0.10715736048494888, "3": 0.12960023236543636, "4": 0.1404184221472374, "5": 0.13629406128429586, "6": 0.11851254178198656, "7": 0.09231796621064453, "8": 0.06442325733484792, "9": 0.04027482542802806, "10": 0.02255584956298271, "11": 0.011316685531051583, "12": 0.00508643901769592 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "NYM 5 - 4 TEX", "winner": "NYM" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "NYM 5 - 4 TEX", "winner": "NYM" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0998, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.018, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "NYM", "model_winner": "NYM", "simulation_winner": "NYM", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "NYM", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "NYM", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": -0.11, "winner": "NYM", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260924	20260924_SD@LAD	LAD	51.0%	51.0%	54.9%	50.0%	4.0-5.0	4-2	miss	Variance Applied (0.5966)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.5101, "sample_size": 689, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5486, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.52935, "published_confidence": 0.509796, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 4.0, "absolute_net_margin": 4.0, "home_average_margin": 0.8, "home_run_delta": 0.0231, "away_run_delta": -0.0231, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -4.0 }, { "home_margin": 7.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": 3.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 1.0854, "recent_quality_edge": -0.072, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.6803 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.01828600254744064 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.01827808388698091 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01808552680520174 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.018077694959743217 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.016632370696392652 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.04773391427896599, "1": 0.07217045144873978, "2": 0.09839242724720419, "3": 0.12095777961005333, "4": 0.1340836479099121, "5": 0.13402558366770026, "6": 0.12080070719412504, "7": 0.09817956997800228, "8": 0.07195196412691617, "9": 0.04754819784480317, "10": 0.028333181769212287, "11": 0.01522392072497899, "12": 0.007376112961114932, "13": 0.0032225412382714254 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.049473323278532357, "1": 0.07471235079318687, "2": 0.1014989352444301, "3": 0.12404473592162098, "4": 0.13637757349596136, "5": 0.13488241919964034, "6": 0.12000946564949615, "7": 0.09605576275441231, "8": 0.06916384288124984, "9": 0.04480047036469838, "10": 0.02610560722661625, "11": 0.013684621597194165, "12": 0.006453265808624789, "13": 0.0027376257843361946 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "SD 4 - 5 LAD", "winner": "LAD" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "SD 4 - 5 LAD", "winner": "LAD" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0449, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.002, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "LAD", "model_winner": "LAD", "simulation_winner": "LAD", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "LAD", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5, "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.6803, "winner": "LAD", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260924	20260924_STL@PIT	PIT	52.8%	51.0%	55.9%	50.0%	4.0-5.0	1-2	hit	Variance Applied (0.2877)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.5101, "sample_size": 682, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5587, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.5344, "published_confidence": 0.52755, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 0.0, "absolute_net_margin": 0.0, "home_average_margin": 0.0, "home_run_delta": 0.0, "away_run_delta": -0.0, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -4.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": 4.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.3323, "recent_quality_edge": 0.392, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.3532 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02081226366379775 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.01988115466374111 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.01964305753488803 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.019628646279969634 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.019448738897863256 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.05527235233938568, "1": 0.08314814931543317, "2": 0.11165846104402682, "3": 0.13385207241831928, "4": 0.14323626008583368, "5": 0.13682808781515637, "6": 0.11667879996343887, "7": 0.08881842368854992, "8": 0.06035435042126447, "9": 0.036610740261761435, "10": 0.019824527812681268, "11": 0.00958278192305989, "12": 0.004134992911089104 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.057357500708918915, "1": 0.0861624525195108, "2": 0.11521437926850878, "3": 0.13713746451573797, "4": 0.14530024486345913, "5": 0.1370368527369205, "6": 0.11504538574890458, "7": 0.08597295071200058, "8": 0.057189363064547624, "9": 0.03386331620799585, "10": 0.01784861457333401, "11": 0.008374142290211129, "12": 0.003497332789950093 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "STL 4 - 5 PIT", "winner": "PIT" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "STL 4 - 5 PIT", "winner": "PIT" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0209, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.462, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "PIT", "model_winner": "PIT", "simulation_winner": "PIT", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "PIT", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667, "draw_majority_team": "PIT", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.3532, "winner": "PIT", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260924	20260924_TB@NYY	NYY	53.1%	54.9%	55.3%	50.0%	2.0-4.0	4-6	hit	Embedded Savant Run Environment (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.548657, "sample_size": 691, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5528, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.550728, "published_confidence": 0.531136, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 9.0, "absolute_net_margin": 9.0, "home_average_margin": 1.8, "home_run_delta": 0.0519, "away_run_delta": -0.0519, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 7.0 }, { "home_margin": -5.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": 8.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.3449, "recent_quality_edge": -0.112, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.185 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.024285963649880254 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.024277539466072005 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.023964805104349434 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02395649232228163 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.021467001552266655 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.06935122731254538, "1": 0.10332759783301478, "2": 0.13480562413206995, "3": 0.15400300198833647, "4": 0.15405644025367574, "5": 0.1349460034477179, "6": 0.10350699306610085, "7": 0.06951985445352596, "8": 0.04088627193601181, "9": 0.021055990118510844, "10": 0.009495182580939109, "11": 0.0037493887227059257, "12": 0.0012964241548452167 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.07224826907150249, "1": 0.10743410842246989, "2": 0.13934504469218034, "3": 0.15764328716079626, "4": 0.15555860608545796, "5": 0.13388971326066465, "6": 0.10051595143725854, "7": 0.06581992332097474, "8": 0.03759363876441917, "9": 0.018728628011678572, "10": 0.00813827144656019, "11": 0.0030845583260371784 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "TB 2 - 4 NYY", "winner": "NYY" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "TB 2 - 4 NYY", "winner": "NYY" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0045, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.042, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "NYY", "model_winner": "NYY", "simulation_winner": "NYY", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "NYY", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.3333, "draw_majority_team": "TB", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": 0.185, "winner": "NYY", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }

Starting-pitcher component quality

H	{ "mae": 1.6667, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.0 }
R	{ "mae": 1.7083, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.125 }
ER	{ "mae": 1.625, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.2083 }
BB	{ "mae": 1.625, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.4583 }
SO	{ "mae": 2.5, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.6667 }
HR	{ "mae": 0.7083, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": -0.2083 }
IP_outs	{ "mae_outs": 3.875, "mae_innings": 1.2917, "bias_outs": 2.0417 }

IP error is measured in outs. No single-outing ERA is used; ER and workload are compared directly.

Date

Game

Side

Pred starter

Actual starter

Match

Pred IP

Actual IP

Δ outs

Pred ER

Actual ER

Δ ER

H P/A

BB P/A

SO P/A

All context

20260924

20260924_ARI@COL

away

Eduardo Rodriguez

True

5.2

6.0

-1

9/9

1/0

7/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "ERA": 2.8911070780399277,
      "WHIP": 1.2304900181488203,
      "IP": 183.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 31,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.925,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.733,
      "last_start_IP": 5.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.1048,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0089,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9611,
      "walk_factor": 0.98,
      "homer_factor": 0.9833,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 18.4,
      "bb_percent": 8.1,
      "woba": 0.298,
      "xwoba": 0.318,
      "barrel_percent": 7.5,
      "hard_hit_percent": 33.0,
      "whiff_percent": 21.9
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 12,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 31.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8611,
        "prior_weight": 0.1389
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "593958",
      "report_date": "20260924",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 31,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 28.2,
            "ER": 14.0,
            "R": 17.0,
            "H": 26.0,
            "BB": 13.0,
            "SO": 30.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 126.0,
            "Pitches": 505.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.8,
            "R": 3.4,
            "H": 5.2,
            "BB": 2.6,
            "SO": 6.0,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 25.2,
            "Pitches": 101.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.3953,
            "WHIP": 1.3605,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.48837,
            "H_per_IP": 0.90698,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.45349,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.04651,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13953
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 61.0,
            "ER": 23.0,
            "R": 28.0,
            "H": 56.0,
            "BB": 18.0,
            "SO": 54.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 256.0,
            "Pitches": 1022.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 2.3,
            "R": 2.8,
            "H": 5.6,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 5.4,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 25.6,
            "Pitches": 102.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.3934,
            "WHIP": 1.2131,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.37705,
            "H_per_IP": 0.91803,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.29508,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.88525,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08197
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 31,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 183.2,
            "ER": 59.0,
            "R": 66.0,
            "H": 164.0,
            "BB": 62.0,
            "SO": 140.0,
            "HR": 18.0,
            "BF": 761.0,
            "Pitches": 2975.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.9032,
            "R": 2.129,
            "H": 5.2903,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 4.5161,
            "HR": 0.5806,
            "BF": 24.5484,
            "Pitches": 95.9677
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.8911,
            "WHIP": 1.2305,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.32123,
            "H_per_IP": 0.89292,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.33757,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.76225,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.098
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.499,
        "predicted_H": 5.349,
        "predicted_BB": 2.184,
        "predicted_SO": 5.439,
        "predicted_HR": 0.677,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.8621,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2934
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
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      "form_reliability": 0.8611,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_size": 31.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8611,
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      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.499,
          "final": 3.1124,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 9.0,
          "form": 5.349,
          "final": 6.8411,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.184,
          "final": 1.7001,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 5.439,
          "final": 5.6683,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.677,
          "final": 0.4003,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.8621,
          "final": 3.8621,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2934,
          "final": 1.2934,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 61.0,
        "ER": 23,
        "H": 56,
        "BB": 18,
        "SO": 54,
        "HR": 5,
        "ERA": 3.39344262295082,
        "WHIP": 1.213114754098361,
        "K9": 7.9672131147541,
        "HR9": 0.7377049180327869,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 5,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-18T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8749678331756804,
    "stat_evolution": [
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        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 9.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 6.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 31.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8611,
          "prior_weight": 0.1389
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      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.2,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 9,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 6,
          "predicted_HR": 0
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "593958",
      "player_name": "Eduardo Rodriguez",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "ARI",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 9.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 9.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.25,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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              "after": 9.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
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        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
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            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
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            {
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              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            {
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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          ],
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            "biggest_deboost": null
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          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
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          {
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          {
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          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
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        "win_pct": 0.5316,
        "runs_scored": 705.0,
        "runs_allowed": 699.0,
        "run_differential": 6.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.038,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.462,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4241,
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        "recent": {
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      "opponent": {
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        "run_differential_per_game": -1.1646,
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      "edges": {
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      "player_factors": {
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
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        "pitcher_id": "593958",
        "profile": {
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          "pitcher_id": "593958",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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          "components": {
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
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            "pitcher_id": "593958",
            "player_name": null,
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            "total_pitches": 100,
            "primary_pitch": {
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              "pitches": 100,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.31577015688,
              "release_spin_rate": 2173.932775026911,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 100,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.31577015688,
                "release_spin_rate": 2173.932775026911,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.3158,
              "release_spin_rate": 2173.9328,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0867,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.6192,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.1048,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0089,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9611,
          "walk_factor": 0.98,
          "homer_factor": 0.9833,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.02,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "593958",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0089,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0089,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.98,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9833,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9611,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 9,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 27,
      "Pitches": 114,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260924_ARI@COL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260924

20260924_ARI@COL

home

Tanner Gordon

True

4.1

3.1

-3

7/12

1/4

1/1

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "ERA": 6.009966777408638,
      "WHIP": 1.5548172757475083,
      "IP": 100.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 23,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.727,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.733,
      "last_start_IP": 3.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.3683,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0313,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9663,
      "walk_factor": 0.908,
      "homer_factor": 1.105,
      "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 18.8,
      "bb_percent": 4.5,
      "woba": 0.39,
      "xwoba": 0.335,
      "barrel_percent": 10.5,
      "hard_hit_percent": 42.4,
      "whiff_percent": 22.4
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 296,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 23.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8214,
        "prior_weight": 0.1786
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "685299",
      "report_date": "20260924",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 23,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 23.2,
            "ER": 18.0,
            "R": 18.0,
            "H": 37.0,
            "BB": 5.0,
            "SO": 20.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 110.0,
            "Pitches": 403.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 3.6,
            "R": 3.6,
            "H": 7.4,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 4.0,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 22.0,
            "Pitches": 80.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.8451,
            "WHIP": 1.7746,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.76056,
            "H_per_IP": 1.56338,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.21127,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.84507,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12676
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 44.1,
            "ER": 30.0,
            "R": 32.0,
            "H": 63.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 35.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 200.0,
            "Pitches": 689.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.2,
            "H": 6.3,
            "BB": 0.8,
            "SO": 3.5,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 20.0,
            "Pitches": 68.9
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.0902,
            "WHIP": 1.6015,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.67669,
            "H_per_IP": 1.42105,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.18045,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.78947,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13534
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 23,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 100.1,
            "ER": 67.0,
            "R": 69.0,
            "H": 136.0,
            "BB": 20.0,
            "SO": 84.0,
            "HR": 19.0,
            "BF": 448.0,
            "Pitches": 1596.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 2.913,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 5.913,
            "BB": 0.8696,
            "SO": 3.6522,
            "HR": 0.8261,
            "BF": 19.4783,
            "Pitches": 69.3913
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.01,
            "WHIP": 1.5548,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.66777,
            "H_per_IP": 1.35548,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.19934,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.83721,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.18937
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.2,
        "predicted_ER": 3.055,
        "predicted_H": 6.253,
        "predicted_BB": 1.038,
        "predicted_SO": 3.813,
        "predicted_HR": 0.647,
        "predicted_ERA": 6.0891,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.6144
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4255,
      "form_weight": 0.5745,
      "form_reliability": 0.8214,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 23.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8214,
        "prior_weight": 0.1786
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      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.2,
          "form": 4.2,
          "final": 4.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 3.055,
          "final": 3.0316,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 6.253,
          "final": 6.5708,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.038,
          "final": 1.0218,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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          "form": 3.813,
          "final": 2.6162,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.647,
          "final": 0.7972,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 6.0891,
          "final": 6.0891,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.6144,
          "final": 1.6144,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 44.1,
        "ER": 30,
        "H": 63,
        "BB": 8,
        "SO": 35,
        "HR": 6,
        "ERA": 6.090225563909775,
        "WHIP": 1.6015037593984964,
        "K9": 7.105263157894737,
        "HR9": 1.218045112781955,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 1,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": true
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-17T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.1880656391660662,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 7.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 1.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 23.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8214,
          "prior_weight": 0.1786
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      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.1,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 7,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 1,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "685299",
      "player_name": "Tanner Gordon",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "COL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 1.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.1,
            "predicted_SO": 1.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.6667,
              "after": 4.1,
              "delta": -0.5667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1214,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
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            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 7.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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          ],
          "summary": {
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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          {
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          {
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 1.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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        ],
        "summary": {
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            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "COL",
        "games": 158,
        "wins": 57,
        "losses": 101,
        "win_pct": 0.3608,
        "runs_scored": 732.0,
        "runs_allowed": 916.0,
        "run_differential": -184.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.1646,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.6329,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.7975,
        "offense_index": 1.0326,
        "defense_index": 0.7739,
        "current_streak": "L3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 2,
          "losses": 8,
          "win_pct": 0.2,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.9,
          "run_differential": -22.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.3661
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "ARI",
        "games": 158,
        "wins": 84,
        "losses": 74,
        "win_pct": 0.5316,
        "runs_scored": 705.0,
        "runs_allowed": 699.0,
        "run_differential": 6.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.038,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.462,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4241,
        "offense_index": 0.9946,
        "defense_index": 1.0141,
        "current_streak": "W4",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9,
          "run_differential": -1.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0315
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.3976,
        "offense_edge": 0.0326,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0054,
        "defense_strength": -0.2261,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0141,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.3
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9775,
        "run_prevention": 1.0416,
        "strikeout": 0.9885
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "685299",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "685299",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 422.0,
            "k_percent": 18.8,
            "bb_percent": 4.5,
            "woba": 0.39,
            "xwoba": 0.335,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.8,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 10.5,
            "hard_hit_percent": 42.4,
            "avg_best_speed": 80.9892,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.5821,
            "whiff_percent": 22.4,
            "swing_percent": 53.3
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 135.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.913,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.8774,
            "command_and_miss": -0.1107,
            "regression_edge": 1.5714,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.6857,
            "barrel_edge": -0.7333,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.6429,
            "whiff_edge": -0.3857,
            "bb_edge": 1.15,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0666
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "685299",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 79,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 79,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.67473641018984,
              "release_spin_rate": 2166.0467400522407,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 79,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.67473641018984,
                "release_spin_rate": 2166.0467400522407,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.6747,
              "release_spin_rate": 2166.0467,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0666,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.4756,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.3683,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0313,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9663,
          "walk_factor": 0.908,
          "homer_factor": 1.105,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.055,
          "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "685299",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0313,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 1.0313,
            "adjusted": 7
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.908,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.105,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9663,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.1,
      "predicted_H": 7,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 1,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 92,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 7",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +7; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 5",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +5."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was +3."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260924_ARI@COL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260924

20260924_CHW@KC

away

David Sandlin

True

5.0

6.0

-2

3/5

3/0

10/7

Last 10 before this game (7 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 6.29126213592233,
      "WHIP": 1.2815533980582523,
      "IP": 34.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 7,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.133,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.133,
      "last_start_IP": 4.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.023,
      "sample_weight": 0.504,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.998,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0009,
      "walk_factor": 0.999,
      "homer_factor": 0.9964,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 22.8,
      "bb_percent": 9.0,
      "woba": 0.323,
      "xwoba": 0.31,
      "barrel_percent": 8.2,
      "hard_hit_percent": 33.7,
      "whiff_percent": 24.6
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 801,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.7627118644067797,
        "last_10": 0.23728813559322032
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 7.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.5833,
        "prior_weight": 0.4167
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "689818",
      "report_date": "20260924",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 7,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 24.1,
            "ER": 15.0,
            "R": 18.0,
            "H": 22.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 25.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 103.0,
            "Pitches": 412.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.6,
            "H": 4.4,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 5.0,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 20.6,
            "Pitches": 82.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.5479,
            "WHIP": 1.274,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.61644,
            "H_per_IP": 0.90411,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.36986,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.0274,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.16438
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 7,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 34.1,
            "ER": 24.0,
            "R": 27.0,
            "H": 31.0,
            "BB": 13.0,
            "SO": 33.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 145.0,
            "Pitches": 553.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 3.4286,
            "R": 3.8571,
            "H": 4.4286,
            "BB": 1.8571,
            "SO": 4.7143,
            "HR": 0.8571,
            "BF": 20.7143,
            "Pitches": 79.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.2913,
            "WHIP": 1.2816,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.69903,
            "H_per_IP": 0.90291,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.37864,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.96117,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.17476
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 7,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 34.1,
            "ER": 24.0,
            "R": 27.0,
            "H": 31.0,
            "BB": 13.0,
            "SO": 33.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 145.0,
            "Pitches": 553.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 3.4286,
            "R": 3.8571,
            "H": 4.4286,
            "BB": 1.8571,
            "SO": 4.7143,
            "HR": 0.8571,
            "BF": 20.7143,
            "Pitches": 79.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.2913,
            "WHIP": 1.2816,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.69903,
            "H_per_IP": 0.90291,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.37864,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.96117,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.17476
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.919,
        "predicted_H": 4.683,
        "predicted_BB": 1.868,
        "predicted_SO": 4.903,
        "predicted_HR": 0.795,
        "predicted_ERA": 5.2539,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3102
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.5261,
      "form_weight": 0.4739,
      "form_reliability": 0.5833,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 7.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.5833,
        "prior_weight": 0.4167
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.919,
          "final": 2.9616,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 4.683,
          "final": 2.7455,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 1.868,
          "final": 2.4635,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 9.0,
          "form": 4.903,
          "final": 7.0583,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.795,
          "final": 0.3768,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 5.2539,
          "final": 5.2539,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3102,
          "final": 1.3102,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 34.1,
        "ER": 24,
        "H": 31,
        "BB": 13,
        "SO": 33,
        "HR": 6,
        "ERA": 6.291262135922331,
        "WHIP": 1.2815533980582525,
        "K9": 8.650485436893206,
        "HR9": 1.5728155339805827,
        "games_pitched": 7,
        "quality_starts": 2,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 7,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 7,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-18T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.2026834944839726,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 1.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 9.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 7.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.5833,
          "prior_weight": 0.4167
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_quality_floor",
        "description": "Weak starter floor restored expected damage from recent form instead of assigning it to zero-inning bullpen rows.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 3,
          "predicted_BB": 3,
          "predicted_SO": 9,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "689818",
      "player_name": "David Sandlin",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CHW",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 1.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 9.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_quality_floor",
          "description": "Weak starter floor restored expected damage from recent form instead of assigning it to zero-inning bullpen rows.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 9.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 2.0,
              "percent_delta": 2.0,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 9.0,
              "after": 9.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 2.0,
              "percent_delta": 2.0,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 10.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 9.0,
              "after": 10.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.1111,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 1,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 9.0,
              "after": 10.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.1111,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 2.0,
            "percent_delta": 2.0,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 9.0,
            "after": 10.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.1111,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 2,
          "boosted_metrics": 2,
          "deboosted_metrics": 0,
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          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": {
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            "percent_delta": 2.0,
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            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "boosted"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "CHW",
        "games": 158,
        "wins": 81,
        "losses": 77,
        "win_pct": 0.5127,
        "runs_scored": 751.0,
        "runs_allowed": 707.0,
        "run_differential": 44.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.2785,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.7532,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4747,
        "offense_index": 1.0594,
        "defense_index": 1.0026,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9,
          "run_differential": 8.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0449
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "KC",
        "games": 158,
        "wins": 68,
        "losses": 90,
        "win_pct": 0.4304,
        "runs_scored": 672.0,
        "runs_allowed": 776.0,
        "run_differential": -104.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.6582,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.2532,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9114,
        "offense_index": 0.948,
        "defense_index": 0.9135,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "win_pct": 0.2,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.7,
          "run_differential": -17.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.2448
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      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.2897,
        "offense_edge": 0.0594,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.052,
        "defense_strength": 0.0026,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0865,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.3
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      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0137,
        "run_prevention": 0.9769,
        "strikeout": 1.0129
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "689818",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "689818",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 126.0,
            "k_percent": 22.8,
            "bb_percent": 9.0,
            "woba": 0.323,
            "xwoba": 0.31,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 36.7,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 33.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 75.7945,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.0105,
            "whiff_percent": 24.6,
            "swing_percent": 44.8
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 135.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.913,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.0078,
            "command_and_miss": 0.0314,
            "regression_edge": 0.3714,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.0286,
            "barrel_edge": -0.2222,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.6,
            "whiff_edge": -0.0714,
            "bb_edge": 0.025,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0587
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "689818",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 83,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 83,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.91118713178139,
              "release_spin_rate": 2319.243590227783,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 83,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.91118713178139,
                "release_spin_rate": 2319.243590227783,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.9112,
              "release_spin_rate": 2319.2436,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0587,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.419,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.023,
          "sample_weight": 0.504,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.998,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0009,
          "walk_factor": 0.999,
          "homer_factor": 0.9964,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.013,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "689818",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.999,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.999,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9995,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9982,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0005,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 10,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 96,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 7 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260924_CHW@KC.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260924

20260924_CHW@KC

home

Randy Dobnak

True

5.2

1.1

-13

2/6

5/1

6/1

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "WHIP": 1.3287671232876712,
      "IP": 73.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 14,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.278,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.467,
      "last_start_IP": 3.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.3241,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0275,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9291,
      "walk_factor": 0.98,
      "homer_factor": 0.983,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 15.6,
      "bb_percent": 8.1,
      "woba": 0.316,
      "xwoba": 0.329,
      "barrel_percent": 4.8,
      "hard_hit_percent": 39.7,
      "whiff_percent": 19.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 97,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.2,
      "season_IP": 73.0,
      "season_ERA": 3.082,
      "season_WHIP": 1.329,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 14.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7368,
        "prior_weight": 0.2632
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "677976",
      "report_date": "20260924",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 14,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
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          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 27.1,
            "ER": 17.0,
            "R": 17.0,
            "H": 28.0,
            "BB": 5.0,
            "SO": 19.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 112.0,
            "Pitches": 417.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 3.4,
            "R": 3.4,
            "H": 5.6,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 3.8,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 22.4,
            "Pitches": 83.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.5976,
            "WHIP": 1.2073,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.62195,
            "H_per_IP": 1.02439,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.18293,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.69512,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.18293
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 54.0,
            "ER": 22.0,
            "R": 22.0,
            "H": 55.0,
            "BB": 16.0,
            "SO": 38.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 228.0,
            "Pitches": 891.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.2,
            "R": 2.2,
            "H": 5.5,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 3.8,
            "HR": 0.5,
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            "Pitches": 89.1
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.6667,
            "WHIP": 1.3148,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.40741,
            "H_per_IP": 1.01852,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.2963,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.7037,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09259
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 14,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 73.0,
            "ER": 25.0,
            "R": 25.0,
            "H": 72.0,
            "BB": 25.0,
            "SO": 48.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 308.0,
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          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 1.7857,
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            "H": 5.1429,
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            "SO": 3.4286,
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          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.0822,
            "WHIP": 1.3288,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.34247,
            "H_per_IP": 0.9863,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.34247,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.65753,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09589
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.69,
        "predicted_H": 5.455,
        "predicted_BB": 1.553,
        "predicted_SO": 4.096,
        "predicted_HR": 0.746,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.4652,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2927
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
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      "form_reliability": 0.7368,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
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      "applied_metrics": {
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          "final": 5.1,
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.69,
          "final": 2.3718,
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
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          "final": 3.8615,
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        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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          "final": 3.1428,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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          "final": 4.9741,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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          "form": 0.746,
          "final": 1.3243,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.4652,
          "final": 4.4652,
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
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          "form": 1.2927,
          "final": 1.2927,
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        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
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      "pitching": {
        "IP": 54.0,
        "ER": 22,
        "H": 55,
        "BB": 16,
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        "HR": 5,
        "ERA": 3.6666666666666665,
        "WHIP": 1.3148148148148149,
        "K9": 6.333333333333333,
        "HR9": 0.8333333333333334,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-18T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9082480396116244,
    "stat_evolution": [
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        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 5.0,
          "predicted_SO": 6.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 14.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7368,
          "prior_weight": 0.2632
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.2,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 2,
          "predicted_BB": 5,
          "predicted_SO": 6,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "677976",
      "player_name": "Randy Dobnak",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "KC",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 5.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 5.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.5,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 2,
            "better_metrics": 1,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.5,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 5.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 1.0,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.2,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 1.0,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "KC",
        "games": 158,
        "wins": 68,
        "losses": 90,
        "win_pct": 0.4304,
        "runs_scored": 672.0,
        "runs_allowed": 776.0,
        "run_differential": -104.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.6582,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.2532,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9114,
        "offense_index": 0.948,
        "defense_index": 0.9135,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 2,
          "losses": 8,
          "win_pct": 0.2,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.7,
          "run_differential": -17.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.2448
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "CHW",
        "games": 158,
        "wins": 81,
        "losses": 77,
        "win_pct": 0.5127,
        "runs_scored": 751.0,
        "runs_allowed": 707.0,
        "run_differential": 44.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.2785,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.7532,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4747,
        "offense_index": 1.0594,
        "defense_index": 1.0026,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9,
          "run_differential": 8.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0449
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.2897,
        "offense_edge": -0.052,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0594,
        "defense_strength": -0.0865,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0026,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.3
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9834,
        "run_prevention": 1.0326,
        "strikeout": 0.9866
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "677976",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "677976",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 287.0,
            "k_percent": 15.6,
            "bb_percent": 8.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.329,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.6,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 4.8,
            "hard_hit_percent": 39.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.6117,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.5829,
            "whiff_percent": 19.1,
            "swing_percent": 45.4
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 135.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.913,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.1861,
            "command_and_miss": -0.6614,
            "regression_edge": -0.3714,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.5143,
            "barrel_edge": 0.5333,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.2571,
            "whiff_edge": -0.8571,
            "bb_edge": 0.25,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.1347
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "677976",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 87,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 87,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 87.45761123700552,
              "release_spin_rate": 2014.207682509976,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 87,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 87.45761123700552,
                "release_spin_rate": 2014.207682509976,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.4576,
              "release_spin_rate": 2014.2077,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1347,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.9624,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.3241,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0275,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9291,
          "walk_factor": 0.98,
          "homer_factor": 0.983,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.013,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "677976",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0275,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0275,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.98,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.983,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9291,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 5,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 24,
      "Pitches": 109,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +2."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least three innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -13 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +4."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -4."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was -2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260924_CHW@KC.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260924

20260924_CIN@ATL

away

Brady Singer

True

4.0

3.0

-3

7/7

1/2

7/1

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 5.6688311688311686,
      "WHIP": 1.5649350649350648,
      "IP": 154.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 30,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.133,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.467,
      "last_start_IP": 3.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.6784,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0577,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9703,
      "walk_factor": 0.988,
      "homer_factor": 1.1236,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 17.7,
      "bb_percent": 8.5,
      "woba": 0.372,
      "xwoba": 0.361,
      "barrel_percent": 10.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 43.0,
      "whiff_percent": 24.2
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 591,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 30.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8571,
        "prior_weight": 0.1429
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "663903",
      "report_date": "20260924",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 30,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 22.1,
            "ER": 28.0,
            "R": 28.0,
            "H": 37.0,
            "BB": 17.0,
            "SO": 18.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 124.0,
            "Pitches": 466.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 5.6,
            "R": 5.6,
            "H": 7.4,
            "BB": 3.4,
            "SO": 3.6,
            "HR": 1.2,
            "BF": 24.8,
            "Pitches": 93.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 11.2836,
            "WHIP": 2.4179,
            "ER_per_IP": 1.25373,
            "H_per_IP": 1.65672,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.76119,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.80597,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.26866
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 50.2,
            "ER": 45.0,
            "R": 45.0,
            "H": 70.0,
            "BB": 28.0,
            "SO": 37.0,
            "HR": 10.0,
            "BF": 253.0,
            "Pitches": 966.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 4.5,
            "R": 4.5,
            "H": 7.0,
            "BB": 2.8,
            "SO": 3.7,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 25.3,
            "Pitches": 96.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 7.9934,
            "WHIP": 1.9342,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.88816,
            "H_per_IP": 1.38158,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.55263,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.73026,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.19737
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 30,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 154.0,
            "ER": 97.0,
            "R": 102.0,
            "H": 181.0,
            "BB": 60.0,
            "SO": 125.0,
            "HR": 31.0,
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        "predicted_ER": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
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          "final": 1.9752,
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    "recent_form_analysis": {
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      "fielding": {
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        "games_fielded": 10,
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      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-17T00:00:00"
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    "recent_form_boost": 1.4104928008202016,
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        "stats": {
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      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
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        "stats": {
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    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "player_id": "663903",
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      "team": "CIN",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
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          "changed_metrics": [],
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          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            {
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            {
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            {
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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          ],
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
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        ],
        "summary": {
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            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "CIN",
        "games": 158,
        "wins": 73,
        "losses": 85,
        "win_pct": 0.462,
        "runs_scored": 648.0,
        "runs_allowed": 808.0,
        "run_differential": -160.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.0127,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1013,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.1139,
        "offense_index": 0.9141,
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        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 2.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2,
          "run_differential": -14.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1914
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "ATL",
        "games": 158,
        "wins": 93,
        "losses": 65,
        "win_pct": 0.5886,
        "runs_scored": 725.0,
        "runs_allowed": 608.0,
        "run_differential": 117.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.7405,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5886,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8481,
        "offense_index": 1.0227,
        "defense_index": 1.166,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
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          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2,
          "run_differential": 6.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.2011
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.3925,
        "offense_edge": -0.0859,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0227,
        "defense_strength": -0.1227,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.166,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9797,
        "run_prevention": 1.0355,
        "strikeout": 0.9864
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "663903",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "663903",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 670.0,
            "k_percent": 17.7,
            "bb_percent": 8.5,
            "woba": 0.372,
            "xwoba": 0.361,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 37.1,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 10.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 43.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 81.1017,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.8519,
            "whiff_percent": 24.2,
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          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 135.0,
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            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
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            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
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          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -1.1121,
            "command_and_miss": -0.2914,
            "regression_edge": 0.3143,
            "xwoba_edge": -1.4286,
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            "whiff_edge": -0.1286,
            "bb_edge": 0.15,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.1408
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "663903",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 94,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 94,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 87.3491612330451,
              "release_spin_rate": 2382.3872675312164,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
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            },
            "pitch_mix": [
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                "pitches": 94,
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                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
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                "release_extension": 0.0,
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.3492,
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              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.6784,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0577,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9703,
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          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.011,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_id": "663903",
            "espn_rank": null
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
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            "factor": 1.0577,
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          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 1.0577,
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          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.988,
            "adjusted": 3
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          "predicted_HR": {
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9703,
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      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.0,
      "predicted_H": 7,
      "predicted_R": 5,
      "predicted_ER": 5,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 20,
      "Pitches": 77,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260924_CIN@ATL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260924

20260924_CIN@ATL

home

Tyler Mahle

True

6.0

5.0

-3

6/6

4/2

2/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.8125,
      "WHIP": 1.2222222222222223,
      "IP": 144.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 26,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.538,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.133,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
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      "effective_weights": {
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          },
          "per_game": {
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          "rates": {
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        },
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          },
          "per_game": {
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        },
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          "per_game": {
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      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
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    "model_form_blend_trace": {
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      "adaptive_parameters": {
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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        "predicted_WHIP": {
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    "recent_form_analysis": {
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      "pitching": {
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      "fielding": {
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      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-18T00:00:00"
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    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "641816",
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      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
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          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
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          "changed_metrics": [],
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          "weights": {},
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        {
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          "step": "current_json_final",
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          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "changed_metrics": [
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
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      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
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        "losses": 65,
        "win_pct": 0.5886,
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        "runs_allowed": 608.0,
        "run_differential": 117.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.7405,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5886,
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          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2,
          "run_differential": 6.0
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        "available": true,
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      "opponent": {
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        "wins": 73,
        "losses": 85,
        "win_pct": 0.462,
        "runs_scored": 648.0,
        "runs_allowed": 808.0,
        "run_differential": -160.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.0127,
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        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.1139,
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          "avg_runs_scored": 2.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2,
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        "available": true,
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      "edges": {
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        "offense_edge": 0.0227,
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      "player_factors": {
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        "strikeout": 1.0186
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "641816",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "641816",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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            "avg_best_speed": 79.9962,
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          "league_medians": {
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            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
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            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
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          "components": {
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            "xwoba_edge": 0.2,
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            "pitch_design_score": -0.0125
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "641816",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 90,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 90,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.64026118417685,
              "release_spin_rate": 2134.9981031675284,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
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              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
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            "pitch_mix": [
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                "pitches": 90,
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                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
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                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.6403,
              "release_spin_rate": 2134.9981,
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              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
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            "components": {
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              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
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              "velocity_edge": -0.0894,
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              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0754,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9936,
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          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "641816",
            "espn_rank": null
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
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            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9936,
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          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
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          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
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          "predicted_HR": {
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9914,
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    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
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      "predicted_BB": 4,
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      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 30,
      "Pitches": 118,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
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  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was +2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260924_CIN@ATL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260924

20260924_CLE@BOS

away

Daniel Espino

True

3.0

1.0

-6

-2

6/0

1/0

6/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.725,
      "WHIP": 1.425,
      "IP": 13.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 12,
      "role_avg_IP": 1.5,
      "recent_avg_IP": 1.5,
      "last_start_IP": 1.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.2623,
      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9777,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.072,
      "walk_factor": 1.0252,
      "homer_factor": 1.038,
      "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 37.3,
      "bb_percent": 11.9,
      "woba": 0.329,
      "xwoba": 0.291,
      "barrel_percent": 13.3,
      "hard_hit_percent": 36.7,
      "whiff_percent": 37.8
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 462,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 2.72,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.3524,
        "prior_weight": 0.6476
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "682982",
      "report_date": "20260924",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 12,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 4.0,
            "R": 4.0,
            "H": 6.0,
            "BB": 3.0,
            "SO": 7.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 25.0,
            "Pitches": 97.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.0,
            "ER": 0.8,
            "R": 0.8,
            "H": 1.2,
            "BB": 0.6,
            "SO": 1.4,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 5.0,
            "Pitches": 19.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.75,
            "WHIP": 1.6875,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.75,
            "H_per_IP": 1.125,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.5625,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.3125,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.375
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 11.1,
            "ER": 5.0,
            "R": 5.0,
            "H": 9.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 18.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 50.0,
            "Pitches": 211.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.0,
            "ER": 0.5,
            "R": 0.5,
            "H": 0.9,
            "BB": 0.7,
            "SO": 1.8,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 5.0,
            "Pitches": 21.1
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.9706,
            "WHIP": 1.4118,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.44118,
            "H_per_IP": 0.79412,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.61765,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.58824,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.17647
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 12,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 13.1,
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            "R": 7.0,
            "H": 12.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 22.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 59.0,
            "Pitches": 243.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.0,
            "ER": 0.5833,
            "R": 0.5833,
            "H": 1.0,
            "BB": 0.5833,
            "SO": 1.8333,
            "HR": 0.25,
            "BF": 4.9167,
            "Pitches": 20.25
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.725,
            "WHIP": 1.425,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.525,
            "H_per_IP": 0.9,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.525,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.65,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.225
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 3.1,
        "predicted_ER": 1.826,
        "predicted_H": 3.294,
        "predicted_BB": 1.504,
        "predicted_SO": 3.804,
        "predicted_HR": 0.652,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.8692,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.4218
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
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      "form_reliability": 0.3524,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
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      "applied_metrics": {
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          "model": 4.2,
          "form": 3.1,
          "final": 4.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.826,
          "final": 1.9345,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 3.294,
          "final": 4.9815,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.504,
          "final": 1.1897,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 3.804,
          "final": 5.1734,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.652,
          "final": 0.869,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.8692,
          "final": 4.8692,
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.4218,
          "final": 1.4218,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 11.1,
        "ER": 5,
        "H": 9,
        "BB": 7,
        "SO": 18,
        "HR": 2,
        "ERA": 3.9705882352941173,
        "WHIP": 1.4117647058823528,
        "K9": 14.294117647058822,
        "HR9": 1.588235294117647,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-18T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9792846928930355,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 6.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 6.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
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        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 2.72,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.3524,
          "prior_weight": 0.6476
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      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 3.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 6,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 6,
          "predicted_HR": 1
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "682982",
      "player_name": "Daniel Espino",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CLE",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
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          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.6667,
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              "delta": -1.6667,
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              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
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            {
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      "total_change": {
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        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
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          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
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        "wins": 82,
        "losses": 76,
        "win_pct": 0.519,
        "runs_scored": 652.0,
        "runs_allowed": 650.0,
        "run_differential": 2.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0127,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1266,
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        "recent": {
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      "opponent": {
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        "run_differential_per_game": 0.5063,
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      "edges": {
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      "player_factors": {
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      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "682982",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "682982",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
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            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 19,
            "primary_pitch": {
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              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 94.96482029799016,
              "release_spin_rate": 2413.0714912015155,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 19,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 94.96482029799016,
                "release_spin_rate": 2413.0714912015155,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 94.9648,
              "release_spin_rate": 2413.0715,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.28,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 2.0,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.2623,
          "sample_weight": 0.45,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9777,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.072,
          "walk_factor": 1.0252,
          "homer_factor": 1.038,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.038,
          "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "682982",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.99,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.99,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0113,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0171,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0324,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 3.0,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 16,
      "Pitches": 72,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -6 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 6",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was -6."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260924_CLE@BOS.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260924

20260924_CLE@BOS

home

Ranger Suarez

True

5.2

5.0

-2

2/3

3/1

5/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "WHIP": 1.2,
      "IP": 143.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 27,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.309,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.0,
      "last_start_IP": 5.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.1698,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9856,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9869,
      "walk_factor": 0.97,
      "homer_factor": 0.9317,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 22.8,
      "bb_percent": 7.6,
      "woba": 0.288,
      "xwoba": 0.298,
      "barrel_percent": 5.4,
      "hard_hit_percent": 33.5,
      "whiff_percent": 22.0
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 59,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
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      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 27.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
        "prior_weight": 0.1562
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "624133",
      "report_date": "20260924",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 27,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
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          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 30.0,
            "ER": 9.0,
            "R": 9.0,
            "H": 26.0,
            "BB": 12.0,
            "SO": 22.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 126.0,
            "Pitches": 479.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 1.8,
            "H": 5.2,
            "BB": 2.4,
            "SO": 4.4,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 25.2,
            "Pitches": 95.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.7,
            "WHIP": 1.2667,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.3,
            "H_per_IP": 0.86667,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.4,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.73333,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.06667
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 52.0,
            "ER": 20.0,
            "R": 21.0,
            "H": 47.0,
            "BB": 19.0,
            "SO": 38.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 217.0,
            "Pitches": 852.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.1,
            "H": 4.7,
            "BB": 1.9,
            "SO": 3.8,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 21.7,
            "Pitches": 85.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.4615,
            "WHIP": 1.2692,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.38462,
            "H_per_IP": 0.90385,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.36538,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.73077,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07692
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 27,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 143.1,
            "ER": 52.0,
            "R": 55.0,
            "H": 127.0,
            "BB": 45.0,
            "SO": 135.0,
            "HR": 9.0,
            "BF": 593.0,
            "Pitches": 2298.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 1.9259,
            "R": 2.037,
            "H": 4.7037,
            "BB": 1.6667,
            "SO": 5.0,
            "HR": 0.3333,
            "BF": 21.963,
            "Pitches": 85.1111
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.2651,
            "WHIP": 1.2,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.36279,
            "H_per_IP": 0.88605,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.31395,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.94186,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.06279
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.078,
        "predicted_H": 5.069,
        "predicted_BB": 2.095,
        "predicted_SO": 4.509,
        "predicted_HR": 0.461,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.3163,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2705
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.416,
      "form_weight": 0.584,
      "form_reliability": 0.8438,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
        "prior_weight": 0.1562
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      "applied_metrics": {
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          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.078,
          "final": 1.6296,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 5.069,
          "final": 3.7923,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.095,
          "final": 2.4715,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.509,
          "final": 4.7133,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.461,
          "final": 0.2692,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.3163,
          "final": 3.3163,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2705,
          "final": 1.2705,
          "source": "form_only"
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 52.0,
        "ER": 20,
        "H": 47,
        "BB": 19,
        "SO": 38,
        "HR": 4,
        "ERA": 3.461538461538462,
        "WHIP": 1.2692307692307694,
        "K9": 6.5769230769230775,
        "HR9": 0.6923076923076924,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 2,
        "dominant_form": false,
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      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-18T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8840315153951002,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 27.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8438,
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "624133",
      "player_name": "Ranger Suarez",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "BOS",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
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            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
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              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          },
          {
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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        ],
        "summary": {
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          "biggest_boost": null,
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            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "BOS",
        "games": 158,
        "wins": 85,
        "losses": 73,
        "win_pct": 0.538,
        "runs_scored": 681.0,
        "runs_allowed": 601.0,
        "run_differential": 80.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.5063,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3101,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8038,
        "offense_index": 0.9606,
        "defense_index": 1.1795,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 2.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.8,
          "run_differential": -1.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0944
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "CLE",
        "games": 158,
        "wins": 82,
        "losses": 76,
        "win_pct": 0.519,
        "runs_scored": 652.0,
        "runs_allowed": 650.0,
        "run_differential": 2.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0127,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1266,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1139,
        "offense_index": 0.9197,
        "defense_index": 1.0906,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.4,
          "run_differential": 15.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0877
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0067,
        "offense_edge": -0.0394,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0803,
        "defense_strength": 0.1795,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0906,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0089,
        "run_prevention": 0.9689,
        "strikeout": 1.0066
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "624133",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "624133",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 568.0,
            "k_percent": 22.8,
            "bb_percent": 7.6,
            "woba": 0.288,
            "xwoba": 0.298,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 37.4,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 5.4,
            "hard_hit_percent": 33.5,
            "avg_best_speed": 75.2498,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.2134,
            "whiff_percent": 22.0,
            "swing_percent": 45.1
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 135.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.913,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.3987,
            "command_and_miss": -0.0286,
            "regression_edge": -0.2857,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.3714,
            "barrel_edge": 0.4,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.6286,
            "whiff_edge": -0.4429,
            "bb_edge": 0.375,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.2191
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "624133",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 94,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 94,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 85.95170532532588,
              "release_spin_rate": 1975.9066423776717,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 94,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 85.95170532532588,
                "release_spin_rate": 1975.9066423776717,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 85.9517,
              "release_spin_rate": 1975.9066,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.2191,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.5648,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.1698,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9856,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9869,
          "walk_factor": 0.97,
          "homer_factor": 0.9317,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.01,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "624133",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9856,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9856,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.97,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9317,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9869,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 94,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260924_CLE@BOS.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260924

20260924_HOU@OAK

away

Peter Lambert

True

5.2

2.2

-9

4/6

1/2

9/6

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.6953642384105962,
      "WHIP": 1.2251655629139073,
      "IP": 151.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 27,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.593,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.733,
      "last_start_IP": 5.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.1828,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9845,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0057,
      "walk_factor": 0.996,
      "homer_factor": 0.968,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 22.9,
      "bb_percent": 8.9,
      "woba": 0.295,
      "xwoba": 0.296,
      "barrel_percent": 6.8,
      "hard_hit_percent": 35.8,
      "whiff_percent": 25.2
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 33,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 27.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
        "prior_weight": 0.1562
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "663567",
      "report_date": "20260924",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 27,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 28.2,
            "ER": 12.0,
            "R": 13.0,
            "H": 29.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 27.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 125.0,
            "Pitches": 476.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.6,
            "H": 5.8,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 5.4,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 25.0,
            "Pitches": 95.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.7674,
            "WHIP": 1.3256,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.4186,
            "H_per_IP": 1.01163,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.31395,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.94186,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10465
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 53.0,
            "ER": 29.0,
            "R": 31.0,
            "H": 56.0,
            "BB": 19.0,
            "SO": 53.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 236.0,
            "Pitches": 921.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.9,
            "R": 3.1,
            "H": 5.6,
            "BB": 1.9,
            "SO": 5.3,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 23.6,
            "Pitches": 92.1
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.9245,
            "WHIP": 1.4151,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.54717,
            "H_per_IP": 1.0566,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.35849,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.0,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07547
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 27,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 151.0,
            "ER": 62.0,
            "R": 64.0,
            "H": 128.0,
            "BB": 57.0,
            "SO": 147.0,
            "HR": 15.0,
            "BF": 641.0,
            "Pitches": 2540.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.2963,
            "R": 2.3704,
            "H": 4.7407,
            "BB": 2.1111,
            "SO": 5.4444,
            "HR": 0.5556,
            "BF": 23.7407,
            "Pitches": 94.0741
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.6954,
            "WHIP": 1.2252,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.4106,
            "H_per_IP": 0.84768,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.37748,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.97351,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09934
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.615,
        "predicted_H": 5.528,
        "predicted_BB": 1.935,
        "predicted_SO": 5.366,
        "predicted_HR": 0.568,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.2263,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3402
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.416,
      "form_weight": 0.584,
      "form_reliability": 0.8438,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 27.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
        "prior_weight": 0.1562
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.615,
          "final": 1.9432,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 5.528,
          "final": 4.8924,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.935,
          "final": 1.546,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 8.0,
          "form": 5.366,
          "final": 6.4617,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.568,
          "final": 0.3317,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.2263,
          "final": 4.2263,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3402,
          "final": 1.3402,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 53.0,
        "ER": 29,
        "H": 56,
        "BB": 19,
        "SO": 53,
        "HR": 4,
        "ERA": 4.9245283018867925,
        "WHIP": 1.4150943396226414,
        "K9": 9.0,
        "HR9": 0.6792452830188679,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 2,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-18T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0522644616940842,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 8.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 27.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8438,
          "prior_weight": 0.1562
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "663567",
      "player_name": "Peter Lambert",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "HOU",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_R": 1.0,
            "predicted_SO": 9.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 9.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.125,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 1,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 9.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.125,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 8.0,
            "after": 9.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.125,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 2,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 1,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 8.0,
            "after": 9.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.125,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "HOU",
        "games": 158,
        "wins": 78,
        "losses": 80,
        "win_pct": 0.4937,
        "runs_scored": 700.0,
        "runs_allowed": 753.0,
        "run_differential": -53.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3354,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4304,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7658,
        "offense_index": 0.9875,
        "defense_index": 0.9414,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.8,
          "run_differential": -11.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1165
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "OAK",
        "games": 158,
        "wins": 63,
        "losses": 95,
        "win_pct": 0.3987,
        "runs_scored": 686.0,
        "runs_allowed": 903.0,
        "run_differential": -217.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.3734,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3418,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.7152,
        "offense_index": 0.9677,
        "defense_index": 0.785,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 7.0,
          "run_differential": -31.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.3245
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.208,
        "offense_edge": -0.0125,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0323,
        "defense_strength": -0.0586,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.215,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0079,
        "run_prevention": 0.9903,
        "strikeout": 1.0088
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "663567",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "663567",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 613.0,
            "k_percent": 22.9,
            "bb_percent": 8.9,
            "woba": 0.295,
            "xwoba": 0.296,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.6,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.8,
            "hard_hit_percent": 35.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5167,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.5315,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 48.9
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 135.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.913,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.3015,
            "command_and_miss": 0.0729,
            "regression_edge": -0.0286,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.4286,
            "barrel_edge": 0.0889,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.3,
            "whiff_edge": 0.0143,
            "bb_edge": 0.05,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0267
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "663567",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 93,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 93,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.38687519162656,
              "release_spin_rate": 2204.8030078841884,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 93,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.38687519162656,
                "release_spin_rate": 2204.8030078841884,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.3869,
              "release_spin_rate": 2204.803,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0267,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.1907,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.1828,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9845,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0057,
          "walk_factor": 0.996,
          "homer_factor": 0.968,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.001,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "663567",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9845,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9845,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.996,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.968,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0057,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 9,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 99,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +3."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least three innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -9 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was +2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260924_HOU@OAK.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260924

20260924_HOU@OAK

home

Mason Barnett

True

3.2

6.0

6/4

1/2

4/8

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 7.159090909090909,
      "WHIP": 1.75,
      "IP": 44.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 19,
      "role_avg_IP": 3.867,
      "recent_avg_IP": 3.867,
      "last_start_IP": 3.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.3931,
      "sample_weight": 0.736,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0334,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9798,
      "walk_factor": 1.0677,
      "homer_factor": 1.0511,
      "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 20.5,
      "bb_percent": 13.7,
      "woba": 0.396,
      "xwoba": 0.352,
      "barrel_percent": 9.0,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.3,
      "whiff_percent": 21.8
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 516,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 8.977,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.6423,
        "prior_weight": 0.3577
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "686930",
      "report_date": "20260924",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 19,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 19.1,
            "ER": 22.0,
            "R": 23.0,
            "H": 28.0,
            "BB": 15.0,
            "SO": 19.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 100.0,
            "Pitches": 384.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.0,
            "ER": 4.4,
            "R": 4.6,
            "H": 5.6,
            "BB": 3.0,
            "SO": 3.8,
            "HR": 1.4,
            "BF": 20.0,
            "Pitches": 76.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 10.2414,
            "WHIP": 2.2241,
            "ER_per_IP": 1.13793,
            "H_per_IP": 1.44828,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.77586,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.98276,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.36207
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 28.2,
            "ER": 33.0,
            "R": 34.0,
            "H": 41.0,
            "BB": 21.0,
            "SO": 23.0,
            "HR": 11.0,
            "BF": 146.0,
            "Pitches": 565.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.0,
            "ER": 3.3,
            "R": 3.4,
            "H": 4.1,
            "BB": 2.1,
            "SO": 2.3,
            "HR": 1.1,
            "BF": 14.6,
            "Pitches": 56.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 10.3605,
            "WHIP": 2.1628,
            "ER_per_IP": 1.15116,
            "H_per_IP": 1.43023,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.73256,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.80233,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.38372
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 19,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 44.0,
            "ER": 35.0,
            "R": 36.0,
            "H": 49.0,
            "BB": 28.0,
            "SO": 42.0,
            "HR": 12.0,
            "BF": 205.0,
            "Pitches": 822.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 2.1,
            "ER": 1.8421,
            "R": 1.8947,
            "H": 2.5789,
            "BB": 1.4737,
            "SO": 2.2105,
            "HR": 0.6316,
            "BF": 10.7895,
            "Pitches": 43.2632
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 7.1591,
            "WHIP": 1.75,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.79545,
            "H_per_IP": 1.11364,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.63636,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.95455,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.27273
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 3.2,
        "predicted_ER": 3.211,
        "predicted_H": 4.544,
        "predicted_BB": 2.227,
        "predicted_SO": 3.394,
        "predicted_HR": 1.027,
        "predicted_ERA": 7.8527,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.8397
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.5011,
      "form_weight": 0.4989,
      "form_reliability": 0.6423,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 8.977,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.6423,
        "prior_weight": 0.3577
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.1,
          "form": 3.2,
          "final": 4.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 3.211,
          "final": 3.6064,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 4.544,
          "final": 5.2736,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.227,
          "final": 1.6121,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 3.394,
          "final": 3.6977,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.027,
          "final": 1.0135,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 7.8527,
          "final": 7.8527,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.8397,
          "final": 1.8397,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 28.2,
        "ER": 33,
        "H": 41,
        "BB": 21,
        "SO": 23,
        "HR": 11,
        "ERA": 10.360465116279071,
        "WHIP": 2.162790697674419,
        "K9": 7.22093023255814,
        "HR9": 3.4534883720930236,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": true
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-18T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.4324215085663652,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 6.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 8.977,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.6423,
          "prior_weight": 0.3577
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 3.2,
          "predicted_ER": 4,
          "predicted_H": 6,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 4,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "686930",
      "player_name": "Mason Barnett",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "OAK",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 3.2,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.3333,
              "after": 3.2,
              "delta": -1.1333,
              "percent_delta": -0.2615,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.3333,
              "after": 3.2,
              "delta": -1.1333,
              "percent_delta": -0.2615,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 3.2,
            "predicted_R": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 3.2,
              "after": 3.2,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.3333,
            "after": 3.2,
            "delta": -1.1333,
            "percent_delta": -0.2615,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.3333,
            "after": 3.2,
            "delta": -1.1333,
            "percent_delta": -0.2615,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "OAK",
        "games": 158,
        "wins": 63,
        "losses": 95,
        "win_pct": 0.3987,
        "runs_scored": 686.0,
        "runs_allowed": 903.0,
        "run_differential": -217.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.3734,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3418,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.7152,
        "offense_index": 0.9677,
        "defense_index": 0.785,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 7.0,
          "run_differential": -31.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.3245
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "HOU",
        "games": 158,
        "wins": 78,
        "losses": 80,
        "win_pct": 0.4937,
        "runs_scored": 700.0,
        "runs_allowed": 753.0,
        "run_differential": -53.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3354,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4304,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7658,
        "offense_index": 0.9875,
        "defense_index": 0.9414,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.8,
          "run_differential": -11.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1165
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.208,
        "offense_edge": -0.0323,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0125,
        "defense_strength": -0.215,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0586,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9857,
        "run_prevention": 1.0299,
        "strikeout": 0.9948
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "686930",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "686930",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 184.0,
            "k_percent": 20.5,
            "bb_percent": 13.7,
            "woba": 0.396,
            "xwoba": 0.352,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.8,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 9.0,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.3,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.5635,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.2875,
            "whiff_percent": 21.8,
            "swing_percent": 43.1
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 135.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.913,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.9453,
            "command_and_miss": -0.4914,
            "regression_edge": 1.2571,
            "xwoba_edge": -1.1714,
            "barrel_edge": -0.4,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.0571,
            "whiff_edge": -0.4714,
            "bb_edge": -1.15,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.033
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "686930",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 72,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 72,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.27450273626764,
              "release_spin_rate": 2374.2742610503064,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 72,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.27450273626764,
                "release_spin_rate": 2374.2742610503064,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.2745,
              "release_spin_rate": 2374.2743,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.033,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.2357,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.3931,
          "sample_weight": 0.736,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0334,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9798,
          "walk_factor": 1.0677,
          "homer_factor": 1.0511,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.044,
          "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "686930",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0246,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0246,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0498,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0376,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9851,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 3.2,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 18,
      "Pitches": 76,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by +7 outs from the projected workload."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260924_HOU@OAK.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260924

20260924_LAA@SEA

away

Grayson Rodriguez

True

5.0

-1

5/5

3/5

5/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 5.95729537366548,
      "WHIP": 1.5373665480427046,
      "IP": 93.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 19,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.93,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.533,
      "last_start_IP": 6.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.5731,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0487,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9789,
      "walk_factor": 0.998,
      "homer_factor": 1.1108,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 19.7,
      "bb_percent": 9.0,
      "woba": 0.363,
      "xwoba": 0.357,
      "barrel_percent": 8.9,
      "hard_hit_percent": 45.1,
      "whiff_percent": 23.7
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 852,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 19.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7917,
        "prior_weight": 0.2083
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "680570",
      "report_date": "20260924",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 19,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 27.2,
            "ER": 15.0,
            "R": 15.0,
            "H": 35.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 22.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 123.0,
            "Pitches": 460.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 7.0,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 4.4,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 24.6,
            "Pitches": 92.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.8795,
            "WHIP": 1.5542,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.54217,
            "H_per_IP": 1.26506,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.28916,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.79518,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.18072
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 54.2,
            "ER": 25.0,
            "R": 28.0,
            "H": 55.0,
            "BB": 19.0,
            "SO": 53.0,
            "HR": 8.0,
            "BF": 235.0,
            "Pitches": 927.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.5,
            "R": 2.8,
            "H": 5.5,
            "BB": 1.9,
            "SO": 5.3,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 23.5,
            "Pitches": 92.7
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.1159,
            "WHIP": 1.3537,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.45732,
            "H_per_IP": 1.0061,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.34756,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.96951,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.14634
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 19,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 93.2,
            "ER": 62.0,
            "R": 67.0,
            "H": 106.0,
            "BB": 38.0,
            "SO": 83.0,
            "HR": 15.0,
            "BF": 421.0,
            "Pitches": 1667.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 3.2632,
            "R": 3.5263,
            "H": 5.5789,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 4.3684,
            "HR": 0.7895,
            "BF": 22.1579,
            "Pitches": 87.7368
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.9573,
            "WHIP": 1.5374,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.66192,
            "H_per_IP": 1.13167,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.40569,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.88612,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.16014
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.867,
        "predicted_H": 6.011,
        "predicted_BB": 1.846,
        "predicted_SO": 4.792,
        "predicted_HR": 0.87,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.7794,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.4552
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.438,
      "form_weight": 0.562,
      "form_reliability": 0.7917,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 19.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7917,
        "prior_weight": 0.2083
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.1,
          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 2.867,
          "final": 3.8013,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 6.011,
          "final": 5.5682,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 1.846,
          "final": 2.3515,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.792,
          "final": 4.8831,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 0.87,
          "final": 1.3649,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.7794,
          "final": 4.7794,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.4552,
          "final": 1.4552,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 54.2,
        "ER": 25,
        "H": 55,
        "BB": 19,
        "SO": 53,
        "HR": 8,
        "ERA": 4.115853658536585,
        "WHIP": 1.3536585365853657,
        "K9": 8.72560975609756,
        "HR9": 1.3170731707317072,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-18T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9597526692412539,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 5.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 19.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7917,
          "prior_weight": 0.2083
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 5,
          "predicted_H": 5,
          "predicted_BB": 3,
          "predicted_SO": 5,
          "predicted_HR": 2
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "680570",
      "player_name": "Grayson Rodriguez",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "LAA",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
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          ],
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
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        ],
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            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "LAA",
        "games": 158,
        "wins": 60,
        "losses": 98,
        "win_pct": 0.3797,
        "runs_scored": 635.0,
        "runs_allowed": 728.0,
        "run_differential": -93.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.5886,
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        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6076,
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          "win_pct": 0.4,
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        },
        "available": true,
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      "opponent": {
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        "wins": 74,
        "losses": 84,
        "win_pct": 0.4684,
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        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3924,
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        "available": true,
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      },
      "edges": {
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        "offense_edge": -0.1042,
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        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9977,
        "run_prevention": 0.9938,
        "strikeout": 1.0037
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "680570",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "680570",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 381.0,
            "k_percent": 19.7,
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            "woba": 0.363,
            "xwoba": 0.357,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 35.5,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.9,
            "hard_hit_percent": 45.1,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.5298,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.8436,
            "whiff_percent": 23.7,
            "swing_percent": 49.1
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 135.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.913,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.9554,
            "command_and_miss": -0.2129,
            "regression_edge": 0.1714,
            "xwoba_edge": -1.3143,
            "barrel_edge": -0.3778,
            "hard_hit_edge": -1.0286,
            "whiff_edge": -0.2,
            "bb_edge": 0.025,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0015
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "680570",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 93,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 93,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.89029909471627,
              "release_spin_rate": 2183.4815920333936,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 93,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.89029909471627,
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                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.8903,
              "release_spin_rate": 2183.4816,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
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            },
            "components": {
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              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
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              "velocity_edge": 0.0106,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.5731,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0487,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9789,
          "walk_factor": 0.998,
          "homer_factor": 1.1108,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.006,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "680570",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
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          "predicted_H": {
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          "predicted_BB": {
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            "factor": 0.998,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
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            "factor": 1.1108,
            "adjusted": 1
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          "predicted_SO": {
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            "factor": 0.9789,
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
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      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 5,
      "predicted_ER": 5,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 93,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260924_LAA@SEA.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260924

20260924_LAA@SEA

home

Bryan Woo

True

5.2

5.1

-1

3/7

1/3

7/8

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
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      "IP": 167.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 29,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.782,
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      "last_start_IP": 5.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
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      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9823,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0126,
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      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 24.4,
      "bb_percent": 5.3,
      "woba": 0.281,
      "xwoba": 0.293,
      "barrel_percent": 7.0,
      "hard_hit_percent": 42.8,
      "whiff_percent": 24.9
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 79,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
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      "effective_weights": {
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      },
      "shrinkage": {
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      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "693433",
      "report_date": "20260924",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 29,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
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          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
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            "ER": 10.0,
            "R": 12.0,
            "H": 24.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 30.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 121.0,
            "Pitches": 443.0
          },
          "per_game": {
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            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 4.8,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 6.0,
            "HR": 0.6,
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            "Pitches": 88.6
          },
          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.0568,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.34091,
            "H_per_IP": 0.81818,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.23864,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.02273,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10227
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 57.1,
            "ER": 22.0,
            "R": 24.0,
            "H": 47.0,
            "BB": 14.0,
            "SO": 58.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 234.0,
            "Pitches": 887.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.2,
            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 4.7,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 5.8,
            "HR": 0.6,
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            "Pitches": 88.7
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.4535,
            "WHIP": 1.064,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.38372,
            "H_per_IP": 0.81977,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.24419,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.01163,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10465
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 29,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 167.2,
            "ER": 73.0,
            "R": 79.0,
            "H": 145.0,
            "BB": 36.0,
            "SO": 167.0,
            "HR": 18.0,
            "BF": 684.0,
            "Pitches": 2561.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.5172,
            "R": 2.7241,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 1.2414,
            "SO": 5.7586,
            "HR": 0.6207,
            "BF": 23.5862,
            "Pitches": 88.3103
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.9185,
            "WHIP": 1.0795,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.43539,
            "H_per_IP": 0.86481,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.21471,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.99602,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10736
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.288,
        "predicted_H": 4.93,
        "predicted_BB": 1.486,
        "predicted_SO": 5.808,
        "predicted_HR": 0.641,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.5529,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1072
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4121,
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      "form_reliability": 0.8529,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_size": 29.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8529,
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      },
      "applied_metrics": {
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          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.288,
          "final": 2.5815,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 4.93,
          "final": 4.1346,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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          "form": 1.486,
          "final": 1.2857,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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          "form": 5.808,
          "final": 6.2993,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.641,
          "final": 0.3768,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.5529,
          "final": 3.5529,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1072,
          "final": 1.1072,
          "source": "form_only"
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
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      "pitching": {
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        "ER": 22,
        "H": 47,
        "BB": 14,
        "SO": 58,
        "HR": 6,
        "ERA": 3.4534883720930236,
        "WHIP": 1.0639534883720931,
        "K9": 9.104651162790699,
        "HR9": 0.9418604651162792,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 5,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-18T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8779939483110215,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
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          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
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          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 29.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8529,
          "prior_weight": 0.1471
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      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.2,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 3,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 7,
          "predicted_HR": 0
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "693433",
      "player_name": "Bryan Woo",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "SEA",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "percent_delta": null,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
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              "delta": -0.4667,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
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            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
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          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.2,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
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            "percent_delta": null,
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            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 7.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
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          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
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            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "SEA",
        "games": 158,
        "wins": 74,
        "losses": 84,
        "win_pct": 0.4684,
        "runs_scored": 640.0,
        "runs_allowed": 702.0,
        "run_differential": -62.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3924,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0506,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.443,
        "offense_index": 0.9028,
        "defense_index": 1.0098,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1,
          "run_differential": 13.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.075
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "LAA",
        "games": 158,
        "wins": 60,
        "losses": 98,
        "win_pct": 0.3797,
        "runs_scored": 635.0,
        "runs_allowed": 728.0,
        "run_differential": -93.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.5886,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.019,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6076,
        "offense_index": 0.8958,
        "defense_index": 0.9737,
        "current_streak": "L3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.4,
          "run_differential": -18.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.2094
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.1344,
        "offense_edge": -0.0972,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.1042,
        "defense_strength": 0.0098,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0263,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0098,
        "run_prevention": 0.9756,
        "strikeout": 1.0124
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "693433",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "693433",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 655.0,
            "k_percent": 24.4,
            "bb_percent": 5.3,
            "woba": 0.281,
            "xwoba": 0.293,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 35.9,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.0,
            "hard_hit_percent": 42.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.6007,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.3637,
            "whiff_percent": 24.9,
            "swing_percent": 53.3
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 135.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.913,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.2544,
            "command_and_miss": 0.3343,
            "regression_edge": -0.3429,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.5143,
            "barrel_edge": 0.0444,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.7,
            "whiff_edge": -0.0286,
            "bb_edge": 0.95,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.1652
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "693433",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 86,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 86,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 92.81366532931159,
              "release_spin_rate": 2265.4298134012292,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 86,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 92.81366532931159,
                "release_spin_rate": 2265.4298134012292,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 92.8137,
              "release_spin_rate": 2265.4298,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.1652,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 1.18,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.2083,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9823,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0126,
          "walk_factor": 0.924,
          "homer_factor": 1.009,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.012,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "693433",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9823,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9823,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.924,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.009,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0126,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 93,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +4."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260924_LAA@SEA.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260924

20260924_MIA@CHC

away

Tyler Phillips

True

5.0

4.0

-3

-1

4/3

5/4

3/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.448369565217391,
      "WHIP": 1.3125,
      "IP": 122.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 36,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.526,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.4,
      "last_start_IP": 3.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.2769,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0235,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9886,
      "walk_factor": 1.018,
      "homer_factor": 1.055,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 19.0,
      "bb_percent": 10.0,
      "woba": 0.314,
      "xwoba": 0.33,
      "barrel_percent": 7.9,
      "hard_hit_percent": 42.5,
      "whiff_percent": 26.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 88,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.0,
      "season_IP": 122.2,
      "season_ERA": 3.448,
      "season_WHIP": 1.312,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 36.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.878,
        "prior_weight": 0.122
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "663969",
      "report_date": "20260924",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 36,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 22.0,
            "ER": 6.0,
            "R": 6.0,
            "H": 13.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 20.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 86.0,
            "Pitches": 347.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 1.2,
            "R": 1.2,
            "H": 2.6,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 4.0,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 17.2,
            "Pitches": 69.4
          },
          "rates": {
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        },
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          "rates": {
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        },
        "season": {
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          "rates": {
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            "SO_per_IP": 0.80707,
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.1,
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
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        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
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        },
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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        "predicted_HR": {
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
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          "final": 3.1572,
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
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          "final": 1.1709,
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
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        "hot_streak": false,
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      "pitching": {
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        "ER": 16,
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      "fielding": {
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-18T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8661469000104848,
    "stat_evolution": [
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        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 36.0,
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          "data_weight": 0.878,
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "663969",
      "player_name": "Tyler Phillips",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "MIA",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
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          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
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          "changed_metrics": [],
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          },
          "weights": {},
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        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 5.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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          ],
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
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          {
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          {
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          },
          {
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          },
          {
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          },
          {
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        ],
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          "biggest_boost": null,
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          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "MIA",
        "games": 158,
        "wins": 78,
        "losses": 80,
        "win_pct": 0.4937,
        "runs_scored": 703.0,
        "runs_allowed": 699.0,
        "run_differential": 4.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0253,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4494,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4241,
        "offense_index": 0.9917,
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        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6,
          "run_differential": 1.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0327
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "CHC",
        "games": 158,
        "wins": 87,
        "losses": 71,
        "win_pct": 0.5506,
        "runs_scored": 839.0,
        "runs_allowed": 694.0,
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        "run_differential_per_game": 0.9177,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.3101,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3924,
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        },
        "available": true,
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      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.1228,
        "offense_edge": -0.0083,
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        "defense_strength": 0.0141,
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        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9882,
        "run_prevention": 1.0341,
        "strikeout": 0.9816
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "663969",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "663969",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 494.0,
            "k_percent": 19.0,
            "bb_percent": 10.0,
            "woba": 0.314,
            "xwoba": 0.33,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 32.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.9,
            "hard_hit_percent": 42.5,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.1111,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.3069,
            "whiff_percent": 26.1,
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          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 135.0,
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            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
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            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
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          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.3166,
            "command_and_miss": -0.1879,
            "regression_edge": -0.4571,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.5429,
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            "hard_hit_edge": -0.6571,
            "whiff_edge": 0.1429,
            "bb_edge": -0.225,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0629
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "663969",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 67,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 67,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.74043596565609,
              "release_spin_rate": 2055.6265692430447,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
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                "pitches": 67,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.74043596565609,
                "release_spin_rate": 2055.6265692430447,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
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                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.7404,
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              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
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            "components": {
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              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.2769,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0235,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9886,
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          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.016,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_id": "663969",
            "espn_rank": null
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
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            "factor": 1.0235,
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          "predicted_H": {
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            "factor": 1.0235,
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          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.018,
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          "predicted_HR": {
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            "factor": 1.055,
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          "predicted_SO": {
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            "factor": 0.9886,
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    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
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      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 5,
      "predicted_SO": 3,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 25,
      "Pitches": 107,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260924_MIA@CHC.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260924

20260924_MIA@CHC

home

Matthew Boyd

True

5.2

7.0

-2

4/5

1/2

1/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "ERA": 4.061281337047354,
      "WHIP": 1.2200557103064067,
      "IP": 119.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 21,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.698,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.733,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.2782,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0236,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.968,
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      "homer_factor": 1.0357,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 18.9,
      "bb_percent": 7.5,
      "woba": 0.307,
      "xwoba": 0.332,
      "barrel_percent": 8.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.2,
      "whiff_percent": 22.6
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 224,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
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      },
      "shrinkage": {
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      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "571510",
      "report_date": "20260924",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 21,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 28.2,
            "ER": 12.0,
            "R": 13.0,
            "H": 24.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 22.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 112.0,
            "Pitches": 450.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.6,
            "H": 4.8,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 4.4,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 22.4,
            "Pitches": 90.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.7674,
            "WHIP": 1.1512,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.4186,
            "H_per_IP": 0.83721,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.31395,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.76744,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.03488
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 60.2,
            "ER": 29.0,
            "R": 32.0,
            "H": 53.0,
            "BB": 20.0,
            "SO": 38.0,
            "HR": 9.0,
            "BF": 247.0,
            "Pitches": 912.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 2.9,
            "R": 3.2,
            "H": 5.3,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 3.8,
            "HR": 0.9,
            "BF": 24.7,
            "Pitches": 91.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.3022,
            "WHIP": 1.2033,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.47802,
            "H_per_IP": 0.87363,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.32967,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.62637,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.14835
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 21,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 119.2,
            "ER": 54.0,
            "R": 58.0,
            "H": 109.0,
            "BB": 37.0,
            "SO": 93.0,
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          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.5714,
            "R": 2.7619,
            "H": 5.1905,
            "BB": 1.7619,
            "SO": 4.4286,
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            "BF": 23.4762,
            "Pitches": 88.9048
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.0613,
            "WHIP": 1.2201,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.45125,
            "H_per_IP": 0.91086,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.30919,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.77716,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12535
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
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        "predicted_H": 5.112,
        "predicted_BB": 1.898,
        "predicted_SO": 4.389,
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        "predicted_ERA": 4.1253,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2169
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4312,
      "form_weight": 0.5688,
      "form_reliability": 0.8077,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 21.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8077,
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      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.641,
          "final": 2.7958,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 5.112,
          "final": 4.6325,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.898,
          "final": 1.5107,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 4.389,
          "final": 2.9275,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.595,
          "final": 0.3384,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.1253,
          "final": 4.1253,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2169,
          "final": 1.2169,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 60.2,
        "ER": 29,
        "H": 53,
        "BB": 20,
        "SO": 38,
        "HR": 9,
        "ERA": 4.302197802197802,
        "WHIP": 1.2032967032967032,
        "K9": 5.637362637362638,
        "HR9": 1.3351648351648353,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 4,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-19T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9769573395709243,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 1.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 21.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8077,
          "prior_weight": 0.1923
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "571510",
      "player_name": "Matthew Boyd",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CHC",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 1.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
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              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
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          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "CHC",
        "games": 158,
        "wins": 87,
        "losses": 71,
        "win_pct": 0.5506,
        "runs_scored": 839.0,
        "runs_allowed": 694.0,
        "run_differential": 145.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.9177,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.3101,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3924,
        "offense_index": 1.1836,
        "defense_index": 1.0214,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0,
          "run_differential": 7.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1555
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "MIA",
        "games": 158,
        "wins": 78,
        "losses": 80,
        "win_pct": 0.4937,
        "runs_scored": 703.0,
        "runs_allowed": 699.0,
        "run_differential": 4.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0253,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4494,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4241,
        "offense_index": 0.9917,
        "defense_index": 1.0141,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6,
          "run_differential": 1.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0327
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.1228,
        "offense_edge": 0.1836,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0083,
        "defense_strength": 0.0214,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0141,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0059,
        "run_prevention": 0.9904,
        "strikeout": 1.0043
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "571510",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "571510",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 473.0,
            "k_percent": 18.9,
            "bb_percent": 7.5,
            "woba": 0.307,
            "xwoba": 0.332,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.4,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.2,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.9008,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.0093,
            "whiff_percent": 22.6,
            "swing_percent": 48.8
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 135.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.913,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.2172,
            "command_and_miss": -0.2443,
            "regression_edge": -0.7143,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.6,
            "barrel_edge": -0.2,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.0429,
            "whiff_edge": -0.3571,
            "bb_edge": 0.4,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.2701
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "571510",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 93,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 93,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 85.0398205022295,
              "release_spin_rate": 2211.404515069364,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 93,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 85.0398205022295,
                "release_spin_rate": 2211.404515069364,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 85.0398,
              "release_spin_rate": 2211.4045,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.2701,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.9295,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.2782,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0236,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.968,
          "walk_factor": 0.968,
          "homer_factor": 1.0357,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.025,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "571510",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0236,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0236,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.968,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.0357,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.968,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 1,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 95,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260924_MIA@CHC.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260924

20260924_MIL@PHI

away

Shane Drohan

True

4.2

2.2

-6

3/3

2/2

3/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.2631578947368425,
      "WHIP": 1.3296398891966759,
      "IP": 120.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 31,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.074,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.6,
      "last_start_IP": 3.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.1241,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9895,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.024,
      "walk_factor": 0.982,
      "homer_factor": 1.023,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 23.7,
      "bb_percent": 8.2,
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      "effective_weights": {
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        },
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      "pitching": {
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      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
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        {
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          "step": "current_json_final",
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      "total_change": {
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        "changed_metrics": [
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    "team_form_snapshot": {
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      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
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      "opponent": {
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      "player_factors": {
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "675660",
        "profile": {
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          "pitcher_id": "675660",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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          "league_medians": {
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          "components": {
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            "pitch_design_score": 0.0323
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "675660",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 66,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 66,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.44122148478533,
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              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
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              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
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            "pitch_mix": [
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                "pitches": 66,
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                "release_speed": 90.44122148478533,
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                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
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                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.4412,
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              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.1241,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
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          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_id": "675660",
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9895,
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          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
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          "predicted_BB": {
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          "predicted_HR": {
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.024,
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    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
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      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 19,
      "Pitches": 85,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
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  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -6 outs from the projected workload."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260924_MIL@PHI.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260924

20260924_MIL@PHI

home

Andrew Painter

True

5.0

6.0

-4

7/5

2/3

3/8

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "ERA": 5.593922651933702,
      "WHIP": 1.4171270718232043,
      "IP": 120.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 24,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.03,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.667,
      "last_start_IP": 5.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.0821,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.007,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9909,
      "walk_factor": 0.984,
      "homer_factor": 1.0178,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 20.3,
      "bb_percent": 8.3,
      "woba": 0.341,
      "xwoba": 0.325,
      "barrel_percent": 8.3,
      "hard_hit_percent": 35.5,
      "whiff_percent": 25.2
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 212,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 24.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8276,
        "prior_weight": 0.1724
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "691725",
      "report_date": "20260924",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 24,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 28.1,
            "ER": 13.0,
            "R": 13.0,
            "H": 24.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 28.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 118.0,
            "Pitches": 457.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.6,
            "R": 2.6,
            "H": 4.8,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 5.6,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 23.6,
            "Pitches": 91.4
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          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.1294,
            "WHIP": 1.2,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.45882,
            "H_per_IP": 0.84706,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.35294,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.98824,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.14118
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 55.2,
            "ER": 24.0,
            "R": 24.0,
            "H": 43.0,
            "BB": 20.0,
            "SO": 54.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 229.0,
            "Pitches": 892.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 4.3,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 5.4,
            "HR": 0.7,
            "BF": 22.9,
            "Pitches": 89.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.8802,
            "WHIP": 1.1317,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.43114,
            "H_per_IP": 0.77246,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.35928,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.97006,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12575
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        },
        "season": {
          "games": 24,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 120.2,
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            "R": 75.0,
            "H": 127.0,
            "BB": 44.0,
            "SO": 107.0,
            "HR": 21.0,
            "BF": 528.0,
            "Pitches": 2033.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 3.125,
            "R": 3.125,
            "H": 5.2917,
            "BB": 1.8333,
            "SO": 4.4583,
            "HR": 0.875,
            "BF": 22.0,
            "Pitches": 84.7083
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.5939,
            "WHIP": 1.4171,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.62155,
            "H_per_IP": 1.05249,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.36464,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.88674,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.17403
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.676,
        "predicted_H": 4.854,
        "predicted_BB": 1.983,
        "predicted_SO": 5.264,
        "predicted_HR": 0.788,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.38,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2435
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
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      "adaptive_parameters": {
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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      "applied_metrics": {
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          "form": 5.1,
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 5.0,
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
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          "final": 5.7614,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.983,
          "final": 1.9902,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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          "final": 4.3067,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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          "form": 0.788,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.38,
          "final": 4.38,
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2435,
          "final": 1.2435,
          "source": "form_only"
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    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
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        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
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      "pitching": {
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        "ER": 24,
        "H": 43,
        "BB": 20,
        "SO": 54,
        "HR": 7,
        "ERA": 3.8802395209580838,
        "WHIP": 1.131736526946108,
        "K9": 8.73053892215569,
        "HR9": 1.131736526946108,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 4,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-19T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9276980285226911,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 5.0,
          "predicted_H": 7.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 3.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8276,
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      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 5,
          "predicted_H": 7,
          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 3,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "691725",
      "player_name": "Andrew Painter",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "PHI",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
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          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.3333,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
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          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
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        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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        {
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          "stats": {
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    },
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          "pitcher_id": "691725",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
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              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 95,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.30079839615475,
                "release_spin_rate": 2307.356647519465,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.3008,
              "release_spin_rate": 2307.3566,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0245,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.1748,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.0821,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.007,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9909,
          "walk_factor": 0.984,
          "homer_factor": 1.0178,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.016,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "691725",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.007,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.007,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.984,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0178,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9909,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 7,
      "predicted_R": 5,
      "predicted_ER": 5,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 3,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 24,
      "Pitches": 92,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -4; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260924_MIL@PHI.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260924

20260924_NYM@TEX

away

Zac Thornton

True

5.2

5.0

-2

5/4

0/1

2/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.4033613445378155,
      "WHIP": 1.147058823529412,
      "IP": 79.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 14,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.667,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.8,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.3499,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0297,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9429,
      "walk_factor": 0.924,
      "homer_factor": 1.0781,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 18.6,
      "bb_percent": 5.3,
      "woba": 0.313,
      "xwoba": 0.329,
      "barrel_percent": 9.6,
      "hard_hit_percent": 41.4,
      "whiff_percent": 18.5
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 115,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 14.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7368,
        "prior_weight": 0.2632
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "804267",
      "report_date": "20260924",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 14,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 29.0,
            "ER": 13.0,
            "R": 13.0,
            "H": 30.0,
            "BB": 3.0,
            "SO": 23.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 118.0,
            "Pitches": 436.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.6,
            "R": 2.6,
            "H": 6.0,
            "BB": 0.6,
            "SO": 4.6,
            "HR": 1.4,
            "BF": 23.6,
            "Pitches": 87.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.0345,
            "WHIP": 1.1379,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.44828,
            "H_per_IP": 1.03448,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.10345,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.7931,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.24138
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 56.0,
            "ER": 25.0,
            "R": 26.0,
            "H": 60.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 42.0,
            "HR": 12.0,
            "BF": 231.0,
            "Pitches": 853.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.5,
            "R": 2.6,
            "H": 6.0,
            "BB": 1.1,
            "SO": 4.2,
            "HR": 1.2,
            "BF": 23.1,
            "Pitches": 85.3
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.0179,
            "WHIP": 1.2679,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.44643,
            "H_per_IP": 1.07143,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.19643,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.75,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.21429
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 14,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 79.1,
            "ER": 30.0,
            "R": 31.0,
            "H": 74.0,
            "BB": 17.0,
            "SO": 59.0,
            "HR": 13.0,
            "BF": 318.0,
            "Pitches": 1174.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.1429,
            "R": 2.2143,
            "H": 5.2857,
            "BB": 1.2143,
            "SO": 4.2143,
            "HR": 0.9286,
            "BF": 22.7143,
            "Pitches": 83.8571
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.4034,
            "WHIP": 1.1471,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.37815,
            "H_per_IP": 0.93277,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.21429,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.7437,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.16387
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.572,
        "predicted_H": 5.754,
        "predicted_BB": 1.221,
        "predicted_SO": 4.605,
        "predicted_HR": 1.125,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.0849,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2308
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4612,
      "form_weight": 0.5388,
      "form_reliability": 0.7368,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 14.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7368,
        "prior_weight": 0.2632
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.572,
          "final": 2.3082,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.754,
          "final": 5.4063,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.221,
          "final": 0.6579,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 4.605,
          "final": 3.4036,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.125,
          "final": 0.6061,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.0849,
          "final": 4.0849,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2308,
          "final": 1.2308,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 56.0,
        "ER": 25,
        "H": 60,
        "BB": 11,
        "SO": 42,
        "HR": 12,
        "ERA": 4.017857142857143,
        "WHIP": 1.2678571428571428,
        "K9": 6.75,
        "HR9": 1.9285714285714286,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 5,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-18T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9465830263841112,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 2.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 14.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7368,
          "prior_weight": 0.2632
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "804267",
      "player_name": "Zac Thornton",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "NYM",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 2.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 2.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
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              "delta": -0.4667,
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              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 5.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
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            "percent_delta": null,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
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          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
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            "delta": -0.4667,
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            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "NYM",
        "games": 158,
        "wins": 73,
        "losses": 85,
        "win_pct": 0.462,
        "runs_scored": 681.0,
        "runs_allowed": 714.0,
        "run_differential": -33.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2089,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3101,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.519,
        "offense_index": 0.9607,
        "defense_index": 0.9928,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.9,
          "run_differential": -1.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0929
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "TEX",
        "games": 158,
        "wins": 78,
        "losses": 80,
        "win_pct": 0.4937,
        "runs_scored": 658.0,
        "runs_allowed": 700.0,
        "run_differential": -42.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2658,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1646,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4304,
        "offense_index": 0.9282,
        "defense_index": 1.0127,
        "current_streak": "L3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0,
          "run_differential": 7.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0029
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.09,
        "offense_edge": -0.0393,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0718,
        "defense_strength": -0.0072,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0127,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9991,
        "run_prevention": 0.9937,
        "strikeout": 1.003
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "804267",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "804267",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 273.0,
            "k_percent": 18.6,
            "bb_percent": 5.3,
            "woba": 0.313,
            "xwoba": 0.329,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 36.4,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 9.6,
            "hard_hit_percent": 41.4,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.7421,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.353,
            "whiff_percent": 18.5,
            "swing_percent": 52.0
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 135.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.913,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.3581,
            "command_and_miss": -0.3586,
            "regression_edge": -0.4571,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.5143,
            "barrel_edge": -0.5333,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.5,
            "whiff_edge": -0.9429,
            "bb_edge": 0.95,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.1301
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "804267",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 89,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 89,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 87.54106140532146,
              "release_spin_rate": 2356.5118793991364,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 89,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 87.54106140532146,
                "release_spin_rate": 2356.5118793991364,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.5411,
              "release_spin_rate": 2356.5119,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1301,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.929,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.3499,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0297,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9429,
          "walk_factor": 0.924,
          "homer_factor": 1.0781,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.016,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "804267",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0297,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0297,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.924,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0781,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9429,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 2,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 86,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260924_NYM@TEX.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260924

20260924_NYM@TEX

home

Kumar Rocker

True

4.2

5.0

-3

3/3

5/2

4/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
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      "games_started": null,
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      "role_avg_IP": 4.821,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.4,
      "last_start_IP": 4.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
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      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0141,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0011,
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      "homer_factor": 1.0366,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 21.4,
      "bb_percent": 9.4,
      "woba": 0.333,
      "xwoba": 0.328,
      "barrel_percent": 7.7,
      "hard_hit_percent": 40.2,
      "whiff_percent": 25.9
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 207,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
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      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
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      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 29.0,
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        "data_weight": 0.8529,
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      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "677958",
      "report_date": "20260924",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 29,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.667,
      "windows": {
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          "totals": {
            "IP": 22.0,
            "ER": 11.0,
            "R": 12.0,
            "H": 23.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 25.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 99.0,
            "Pitches": 393.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 2.2,
            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 4.6,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 5.0,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 19.8,
            "Pitches": 78.6
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          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.5455,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.5,
            "H_per_IP": 1.04545,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.5,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.13636,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13636
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 47.0,
            "ER": 27.0,
            "R": 28.0,
            "H": 54.0,
            "BB": 23.0,
            "SO": 48.0,
            "HR": 8.0,
            "BF": 216.0,
            "Pitches": 824.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.7,
            "R": 2.8,
            "H": 5.4,
            "BB": 2.3,
            "SO": 4.8,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 21.6,
            "Pitches": 82.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.1702,
            "WHIP": 1.6383,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.57447,
            "H_per_IP": 1.14894,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.48936,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.02128,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.17021
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        },
        "season": {
          "games": 29,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 143.0,
            "ER": 71.0,
            "R": 73.0,
            "H": 144.0,
            "BB": 59.0,
            "SO": 134.0,
            "HR": 20.0,
            "BF": 627.0,
            "Pitches": 2422.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.4483,
            "R": 2.5172,
            "H": 4.9655,
            "BB": 2.0345,
            "SO": 4.6207,
            "HR": 0.6897,
            "BF": 21.6207,
            "Pitches": 83.5172
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.4685,
            "WHIP": 1.4196,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.4965,
            "H_per_IP": 1.00699,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.41259,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.93706,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13986
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.404,
        "predicted_H": 4.874,
        "predicted_BB": 2.131,
        "predicted_SO": 4.774,
        "predicted_HR": 0.684,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.7087,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.5242
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4121,
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      "form_reliability": 0.8529,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8529,
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      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.2,
          "form": 4.2,
          "final": 4.2,
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.404,
          "final": 3.0618,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 4.874,
          "final": 4.1016,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 2.131,
          "final": 3.3135,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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          "final": 4.455,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.684,
          "final": 0.8142,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
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          "final": 4.7087,
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.5242,
          "final": 1.5242,
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        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 47.0,
        "ER": 27,
        "H": 54,
        "BB": 23,
        "SO": 48,
        "HR": 8,
        "ERA": 5.170212765957447,
        "WHIP": 1.6382978723404256,
        "K9": 9.191489361702128,
        "HR9": 1.5319148936170213,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 1,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": true
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-18T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0854840522199773,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 5.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 29.0,
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          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8529,
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "677958",
      "player_name": "Kumar Rocker",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "TEX",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 5.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
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            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.2,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
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              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          },
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
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          {
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          {
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          {
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        ],
        "summary": {
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          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "TEX",
        "games": 158,
        "wins": 78,
        "losses": 80,
        "win_pct": 0.4937,
        "runs_scored": 658.0,
        "runs_allowed": 700.0,
        "run_differential": -42.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2658,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1646,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4304,
        "offense_index": 0.9282,
        "defense_index": 1.0127,
        "current_streak": "L3",
        "recent": {
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          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0,
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      },
      "opponent": {
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        "wins": 73,
        "losses": 85,
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        "runs_scored": 681.0,
        "runs_allowed": 714.0,
        "run_differential": -33.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2089,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3101,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.519,
        "offense_index": 0.9607,
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        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
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          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.9,
          "run_differential": -1.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0929
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      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.09,
        "offense_edge": -0.0718,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0393,
        "defense_strength": 0.0127,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0072,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0056,
        "run_prevention": 0.9879,
        "strikeout": 1.0058
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "677958",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "677958",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 608.0,
            "k_percent": 21.4,
            "bb_percent": 9.4,
            "woba": 0.333,
            "xwoba": 0.328,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 32.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.7,
            "hard_hit_percent": 40.2,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.0305,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.4045,
            "whiff_percent": 25.9,
            "swing_percent": 47.9
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 135.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.913,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.3103,
            "command_and_miss": -0.0136,
            "regression_edge": 0.1429,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.4857,
            "barrel_edge": -0.1111,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.3286,
            "whiff_edge": 0.1143,
            "bb_edge": -0.075,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0348
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "677958",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 82,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 82,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.2417427175566,
              "release_spin_rate": 2139.55819234905,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 82,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.2417427175566,
                "release_spin_rate": 2139.55819234905,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.2417,
              "release_spin_rate": 2139.5582,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0348,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.2488,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.1658,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0141,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0011,
          "walk_factor": 1.006,
          "homer_factor": 1.0366,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.005,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "677958",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0141,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0141,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.006,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0366,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0011,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.2,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 5,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 88,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -3."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260924_NYM@TEX.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260924

20260924_SD@LAD

away

Nick Pivetta

True

5.0

4.2

-1

-2

5/4

3/1

6/7

Last 10 before this game (7 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.3,
      "WHIP": 1.0,
      "IP": 30.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 7,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.286,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.4,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.209,
      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9822,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0067,
      "walk_factor": 0.9703,
      "homer_factor": 0.9915,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 29.2,
      "bb_percent": 5.8,
      "woba": 0.246,
      "xwoba": 0.265,
      "barrel_percent": 9.0,
      "hard_hit_percent": 35.9,
      "whiff_percent": 20.5
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 232,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.0,
      "season_IP": 30.0,
      "season_ERA": 3.3,
      "season_WHIP": 1.0,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.7627118644067797,
        "last_10": 0.23728813559322032
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 7.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.5833,
        "prior_weight": 0.4167
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "601713",
      "report_date": "20260924",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 7,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 22.0,
            "ER": 5.0,
            "R": 5.0,
            "H": 15.0,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 23.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 83.0,
            "Pitches": 340.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 1.0,
            "R": 1.0,
            "H": 3.0,
            "BB": 0.4,
            "SO": 4.6,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 16.6,
            "Pitches": 68.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.0455,
            "WHIP": 0.7727,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.22727,
            "H_per_IP": 0.68182,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.09091,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.04545,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09091
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 7,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 30.0,
            "ER": 11.0,
            "R": 11.0,
            "H": 23.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 35.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 120.0,
            "Pitches": 491.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 1.5714,
            "R": 1.5714,
            "H": 3.2857,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 5.0,
            "HR": 0.2857,
            "BF": 17.1429,
            "Pitches": 70.1429
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.3,
            "WHIP": 1.0,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.36667,
            "H_per_IP": 0.76667,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.23333,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.16667,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.06667
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 7,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 30.0,
            "ER": 11.0,
            "R": 11.0,
            "H": 23.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 35.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 120.0,
            "Pitches": 491.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 1.5714,
            "R": 1.5714,
            "H": 3.2857,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 5.0,
            "HR": 0.2857,
            "BF": 17.1429,
            "Pitches": 70.1429
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.3,
            "WHIP": 1.0,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.36667,
            "H_per_IP": 0.76667,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.23333,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.16667,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.06667
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.2,
        "predicted_ER": 1.681,
        "predicted_H": 3.776,
        "predicted_BB": 1.058,
        "predicted_SO": 4.69,
        "predicted_HR": 0.514,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.2817,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.0482
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.5261,
      "form_weight": 0.4739,
      "form_reliability": 0.5833,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 7.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.5833,
        "prior_weight": 0.4167
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.2,
          "final": 5.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.681,
          "final": 1.8488,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 3.776,
          "final": 4.4199,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 1.058,
          "final": 2.0796,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 4.69,
          "final": 4.327,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.514,
          "final": 0.7697,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.2817,
          "final": 3.2817,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.0482,
          "final": 1.0482,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 30.0,
        "ER": 11,
        "H": 23,
        "BB": 7,
        "SO": 35,
        "HR": 2,
        "ERA": 3.3,
        "WHIP": 1.0,
        "K9": 10.5,
        "HR9": 0.6,
        "games_pitched": 7,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 7,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 7,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-18T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8599002863600387,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 7.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.5833,
          "prior_weight": 0.4167
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 5,
          "predicted_BB": 3,
          "predicted_SO": 5,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "601713",
      "player_name": "Nick Pivetta",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "SD",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.25,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 1,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.25,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.2,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 1,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.2,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 2.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.5,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 0,
          "better_metrics": 1,
          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 2.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.5,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "SD",
        "games": 158,
        "wins": 88,
        "losses": 70,
        "win_pct": 0.557,
        "runs_scored": 695.0,
        "runs_allowed": 657.0,
        "run_differential": 38.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.2405,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3987,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1582,
        "offense_index": 0.9804,
        "defense_index": 1.0789,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 8,
          "losses": 2,
          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4,
          "run_differential": 18.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1829
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "LAD",
        "games": 158,
        "wins": 97,
        "losses": 61,
        "win_pct": 0.6139,
        "runs_scored": 788.0,
        "runs_allowed": 592.0,
        "run_differential": 196.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.2405,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.9873,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7468,
        "offense_index": 1.1116,
        "defense_index": 1.1974,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.7,
          "run_differential": 24.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.3189
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.136,
        "offense_edge": -0.0196,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.1116,
        "defense_strength": 0.0789,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1974,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9925,
        "run_prevention": 1.0168,
        "strikeout": 0.987
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "601713",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "601713",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 100.0,
            "k_percent": 29.2,
            "bb_percent": 5.8,
            "woba": 0.246,
            "xwoba": 0.265,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 9.0,
            "hard_hit_percent": 35.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.7105,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.5986,
            "whiff_percent": 20.5,
            "swing_percent": 47.7
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 135.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.913,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.7466,
            "command_and_miss": 0.3979,
            "regression_edge": -0.5429,
            "xwoba_edge": 1.3143,
            "barrel_edge": -0.4,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.2857,
            "whiff_edge": -0.6571,
            "bb_edge": 0.825,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0365
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "601713",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 69,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 69,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.21211734682227,
              "release_spin_rate": 2437.193161283574,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 69,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.21211734682227,
                "release_spin_rate": 2437.193161283574,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.2121,
              "release_spin_rate": 2437.1932,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0365,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.2606,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.209,
          "sample_weight": 0.45,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9822,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0067,
          "walk_factor": 0.9703,
          "homer_factor": 0.9915,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.019,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "601713",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.992,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.992,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9866,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9962,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.003,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 102,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 7 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260924_SD@LAD.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260924

20260924_SD@LAD

home

Tyler Glasnow

True

6.0

6.1

5/3

2/2

7/11

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.4581280788177335,
      "WHIP": 0.960591133004926,
      "IP": 67.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 12,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.639,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.6,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.5745,
      "sample_weight": 0.96,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9512,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0938,
      "walk_factor": 0.9923,
      "homer_factor": 0.9923,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 33.0,
      "bb_percent": 8.7,
      "woba": 0.251,
      "xwoba": 0.266,
      "barrel_percent": 8.5,
      "hard_hit_percent": 39.2,
      "whiff_percent": 31.2
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 119,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 6.0,
      "season_IP": 67.2,
      "season_ERA": 3.458,
      "season_WHIP": 0.961,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 12.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7059,
        "prior_weight": 0.2941
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "607192",
      "report_date": "20260924",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 12,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 28.0,
            "ER": 14.0,
            "R": 14.0,
            "H": 22.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 38.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 116.0,
            "Pitches": 459.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.8,
            "R": 2.8,
            "H": 4.4,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 7.6,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 23.2,
            "Pitches": 91.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.5,
            "WHIP": 1.1429,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.5,
            "H_per_IP": 0.78571,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.35714,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.35714,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07143
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 55.2,
            "ER": 22.0,
            "R": 22.0,
            "H": 34.0,
            "BB": 20.0,
            "SO": 72.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 217.0,
            "Pitches": 867.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.2,
            "R": 2.2,
            "H": 3.4,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 7.2,
            "HR": 0.7,
            "BF": 21.7,
            "Pitches": 86.7
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.5569,
            "WHIP": 0.9701,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.39521,
            "H_per_IP": 0.61078,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.35928,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.29341,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12575
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 12,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 67.2,
            "ER": 26.0,
            "R": 26.0,
            "H": 42.0,
            "BB": 23.0,
            "SO": 87.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 264.0,
            "Pitches": 1058.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.1667,
            "R": 2.1667,
            "H": 3.5,
            "BB": 1.9167,
            "SO": 7.25,
            "HR": 0.5833,
            "BF": 22.0,
            "Pitches": 88.1667
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.4581,
            "WHIP": 0.9606,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.38424,
            "H_per_IP": 0.62069,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.3399,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.28571,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10345
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.657,
        "predicted_H": 4.48,
        "predicted_BB": 2.08,
        "predicted_SO": 6.963,
        "predicted_HR": 0.645,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.148,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1378
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4743,
      "form_weight": 0.5257,
      "form_reliability": 0.7059,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 12.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7059,
        "prior_weight": 0.2941
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.657,
          "final": 2.3454,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.48,
          "final": 4.7266,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.08,
          "final": 2.0421,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 6.963,
          "final": 5.5578,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.645,
          "final": 0.3391,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.148,
          "final": 4.148,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1378,
          "final": 1.1378,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 55.2,
        "ER": 22,
        "H": 34,
        "BB": 20,
        "SO": 72,
        "HR": 7,
        "ERA": 3.55688622754491,
        "WHIP": 0.9700598802395208,
        "K9": 11.64071856287425,
        "HR9": 1.1317365269461077,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 4,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-18T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8872788668460444,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 12.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7059,
          "prior_weight": 0.2941
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 5,
          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 7,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "607192",
      "player_name": "Tyler Glasnow",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "LAD",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
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            {
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            },
            {
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              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_boost": {
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              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            {
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            {
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            {
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
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          {
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          },
          {
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          {
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          },
          {
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          },
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          }
        ],
        "summary": {
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          "biggest_boost": {
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            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "LAD",
        "games": 158,
        "wins": 97,
        "losses": 61,
        "win_pct": 0.6139,
        "runs_scored": 788.0,
        "runs_allowed": 592.0,
        "run_differential": 196.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.2405,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.9873,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7468,
        "offense_index": 1.1116,
        "defense_index": 1.1974,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.7,
          "run_differential": 24.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.3189
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "SD",
        "games": 158,
        "wins": 88,
        "losses": 70,
        "win_pct": 0.557,
        "runs_scored": 695.0,
        "runs_allowed": 657.0,
        "run_differential": 38.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.2405,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3987,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1582,
        "offense_index": 0.9804,
        "defense_index": 1.0789,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 8,
          "losses": 2,
          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4,
          "run_differential": 18.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1829
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.136,
        "offense_edge": 0.1116,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0196,
        "defense_strength": 0.1974,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0789,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0121,
        "run_prevention": 0.9703,
        "strikeout": 1.0056
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "607192",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "607192",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 240.0,
            "k_percent": 33.0,
            "bb_percent": 8.7,
            "woba": 0.251,
            "xwoba": 0.266,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 32.7,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.5,
            "hard_hit_percent": 39.2,
            "avg_best_speed": 81.2861,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9525,
            "whiff_percent": 31.2,
            "swing_percent": 42.4
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 135.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.913,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.658,
            "command_and_miss": 1.0321,
            "regression_edge": -0.4286,
            "xwoba_edge": 1.2857,
            "barrel_edge": -0.2889,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.1857,
            "whiff_edge": 0.8714,
            "bb_edge": 0.1,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0557
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "607192",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 76,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 76,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.85773330934553,
              "release_spin_rate": 2625.986737733158,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 76,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.85773330934553,
                "release_spin_rate": 2625.986737733158,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.8577,
              "release_spin_rate": 2625.9867,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0557,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.3976,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.5745,
          "sample_weight": 0.96,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9512,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0938,
          "walk_factor": 0.9923,
          "homer_factor": 0.9923,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.015,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "607192",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9532,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9532,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9926,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9926,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 8.0,
            "factor": 1.09,
            "adjusted": 9
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 25,
      "Pitches": 104,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260924_SD@LAD.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260924

20260924_STL@PIT

away

Kyle Leahy

True

5.0

2.0

-9

-1

2/3

4/0

6/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.652173913043478,
      "WHIP": 1.3405797101449275,
      "IP": 138.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 29,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.759,
      "recent_avg_IP": 3.133,
      "last_start_IP": 3.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.4005,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.034,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9846,
      "walk_factor": 0.958,
      "homer_factor": 1.1187,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 22.0,
      "bb_percent": 7.0,
      "woba": 0.327,
      "xwoba": 0.337,
      "barrel_percent": 9.7,
      "hard_hit_percent": 47.0,
      "whiff_percent": 22.4
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 82,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.0,
      "season_IP": 138.0,
      "season_ERA": 3.652,
      "season_WHIP": 1.341,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 29.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8529,
        "prior_weight": 0.1471
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "681517",
      "report_date": "20260924",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 29,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 15.2,
            "ER": 12.0,
            "R": 13.0,
            "H": 19.0,
            "BB": 6.0,
            "SO": 18.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 71.0,
            "Pitches": 268.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.0,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.6,
            "H": 3.8,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 3.6,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 14.2,
            "Pitches": 53.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.8936,
            "WHIP": 1.5957,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.76596,
            "H_per_IP": 1.21277,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.38298,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.14894,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.19149
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 42.2,
            "ER": 18.0,
            "R": 19.0,
            "H": 48.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 50.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 179.0,
            "Pitches": 721.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 1.9,
            "H": 4.8,
            "BB": 0.8,
            "SO": 5.0,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 17.9,
            "Pitches": 72.1
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.7969,
            "WHIP": 1.3125,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.42188,
            "H_per_IP": 1.125,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.1875,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.17188,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11719
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 29,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 138.0,
            "ER": 56.0,
            "R": 57.0,
            "H": 144.0,
            "BB": 41.0,
            "SO": 129.0,
            "HR": 15.0,
            "BF": 587.0,
            "Pitches": 2291.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 1.931,
            "R": 1.9655,
            "H": 4.9655,
            "BB": 1.4138,
            "SO": 4.4483,
            "HR": 0.5172,
            "BF": 20.2414,
            "Pitches": 79.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.6522,
            "WHIP": 1.3406,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.4058,
            "H_per_IP": 1.04348,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.2971,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.93478,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1087
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.244,
        "predicted_H": 4.469,
        "predicted_BB": 1.228,
        "predicted_SO": 4.327,
        "predicted_HR": 0.592,
        "predicted_ERA": 5.0782,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.4327
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4121,
      "form_weight": 0.5879,
      "form_reliability": 0.8529,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 29.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8529,
        "prior_weight": 0.1471
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.0,
          "final": 4.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.244,
          "final": 2.1434,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 4.469,
          "final": 3.4514,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 1.228,
          "final": 2.3705,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.327,
          "final": 4.6044,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.592,
          "final": 0.348,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 5.0782,
          "final": 5.0782,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.4327,
          "final": 1.4327,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
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        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 42.2,
        "ER": 18,
        "H": 48,
        "BB": 8,
        "SO": 50,
        "HR": 5,
        "ERA": 3.796875,
        "WHIP": 1.3125,
        "K9": 10.546875,
        "HR9": 1.0546875,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 2,
        "dominant_form": false,
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      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-18T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.922838606741254,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 4.0,
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          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 29.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8529,
          "prior_weight": 0.1471
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "681517",
      "player_name": "Kyle Leahy",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "STL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
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            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.2,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.2,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
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            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.2,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
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          "biggest_boost": {
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            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.2,
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            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "STL",
        "games": 158,
        "wins": 77,
        "losses": 81,
        "win_pct": 0.4873,
        "runs_scored": 709.0,
        "runs_allowed": 730.0,
        "run_differential": -21.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.1329,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4873,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6203,
        "offense_index": 0.9991,
        "defense_index": 0.9721,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7,
          "run_differential": -13.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0621
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "PIT",
        "games": 158,
        "wins": 80,
        "losses": 78,
        "win_pct": 0.5063,
        "runs_scored": 751.0,
        "runs_allowed": 724.0,
        "run_differential": 27.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1709,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.7532,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5823,
        "offense_index": 1.0583,
        "defense_index": 0.9802,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.9,
          "run_differential": 1.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0613
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.1234,
        "offense_edge": -0.0009,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0583,
        "defense_strength": -0.0279,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0198,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9919,
        "run_prevention": 1.0183,
        "strikeout": 0.9916
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "681517",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "681517",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 568.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 7.0,
            "woba": 0.327,
            "xwoba": 0.337,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 36.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 9.7,
            "hard_hit_percent": 47.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 80.6216,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 95.3099,
            "whiff_percent": 22.4,
            "swing_percent": 46.3
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 135.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.913,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.6478,
            "command_and_miss": -0.03,
            "regression_edge": -0.2857,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.7429,
            "barrel_edge": -0.5556,
            "hard_hit_edge": -1.3,
            "whiff_edge": -0.3857,
            "bb_edge": 0.525,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0172
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "681517",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 59,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 59,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.55713480456048,
              "release_spin_rate": 2180.111420248253,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 59,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.55713480456048,
                "release_spin_rate": 2180.111420248253,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.5571,
              "release_spin_rate": 2180.1114,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0172,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.1226,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.4005,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.034,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9846,
          "walk_factor": 0.958,
          "homer_factor": 1.1187,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.01,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "681517",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.034,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.034,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.958,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.1187,
            "adjusted": 1
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9846,
            "adjusted": 4
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 4,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 24,
      "Pitches": 97,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least three innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -9 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -4."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260924_STL@PIT.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260924

20260924_STL@PIT

home

Paul Skenes

True

5.2

6.1

-3

7/3

1/2

7/8

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
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      "IP": 168.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 31,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.419,
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      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.4767,
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      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9595,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0509,
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      "homer_factor": 0.9717,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 27.9,
      "bb_percent": 6.8,
      "woba": 0.298,
      "xwoba": 0.28,
      "barrel_percent": 7.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
      "whiff_percent": 28.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 42,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
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        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
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        "prior_size": 5.0,
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      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "694973",
      "report_date": "20260924",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 31,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
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          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 29.0,
            "ER": 12.0,
            "R": 12.0,
            "H": 25.0,
            "BB": 6.0,
            "SO": 21.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 116.0,
            "Pitches": 440.0
          },
          "per_game": {
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            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 5.0,
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            "SO": 4.2,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 23.2,
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          },
          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.069,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.41379,
            "H_per_IP": 0.86207,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.2069,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.72414,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.17241
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
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            "ER": 29.0,
            "R": 30.0,
            "H": 49.0,
            "BB": 21.0,
            "SO": 54.0,
            "HR": 8.0,
            "BF": 224.0,
            "Pitches": 884.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.9,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 4.9,
            "BB": 2.1,
            "SO": 5.4,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 22.4,
            "Pitches": 88.4
          },
          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.3291,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.55063,
            "H_per_IP": 0.93038,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.39873,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.02532,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1519
          }
        },
        "season": {
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          "totals": {
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            "ER": 73.0,
            "R": 81.0,
            "H": 143.0,
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            "SO": 192.0,
            "HR": 19.0,
            "BF": 689.0,
            "Pitches": 2794.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.3548,
            "R": 2.6129,
            "H": 4.6129,
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            "SO": 6.1935,
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            "BF": 22.2258,
            "Pitches": 90.129
          },
          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.131,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.43452,
            "H_per_IP": 0.85119,
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            "SO_per_IP": 1.14286,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1131
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.6,
        "predicted_H": 4.944,
        "predicted_BB": 1.657,
        "predicted_SO": 5.049,
        "predicted_HR": 0.841,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.2485,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1983
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4087,
      "form_weight": 0.5913,
      "form_reliability": 0.8611,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 31.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8611,
        "prior_weight": 0.1389
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.6,
          "final": 3.1722,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 4.944,
          "final": 5.7843,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.657,
          "final": 1.3885,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 5.049,
          "final": 5.8463,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.841,
          "final": 0.4973,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.2485,
          "final": 4.2485,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1983,
          "final": 1.1983,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 52.2,
        "ER": 29,
        "H": 49,
        "BB": 21,
        "SO": 54,
        "HR": 8,
        "ERA": 4.955696202531646,
        "WHIP": 1.3291139240506329,
        "K9": 9.227848101265824,
        "HR9": 1.3670886075949367,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 2,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-18T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.05362134012733,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 7.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 7.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 31.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8611,
          "prior_weight": 0.1389
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "694973",
      "player_name": "Paul Skenes",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "PIT",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_R": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 7.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 7.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
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          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "PIT",
        "games": 158,
        "wins": 80,
        "losses": 78,
        "win_pct": 0.5063,
        "runs_scored": 751.0,
        "runs_allowed": 724.0,
        "run_differential": 27.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1709,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.7532,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5823,
        "offense_index": 1.0583,
        "defense_index": 0.9802,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.9,
          "run_differential": 1.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0613
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "STL",
        "games": 158,
        "wins": 77,
        "losses": 81,
        "win_pct": 0.4873,
        "runs_scored": 709.0,
        "runs_allowed": 730.0,
        "run_differential": -21.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.1329,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4873,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6203,
        "offense_index": 0.9991,
        "defense_index": 0.9721,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7,
          "run_differential": -13.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0621
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.1234,
        "offense_edge": 0.0583,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0009,
        "defense_strength": -0.0198,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0279,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0044,
        "run_prevention": 0.9957,
        "strikeout": 1.0038
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "694973",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "694973",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 662.0,
            "k_percent": 27.9,
            "bb_percent": 6.8,
            "woba": 0.298,
            "xwoba": 0.28,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 35.6,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.4405,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.7538,
            "whiff_percent": 28.1,
            "swing_percent": 51.1
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 135.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.913,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.4382,
            "command_and_miss": 0.6443,
            "regression_edge": 0.5143,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.8857,
            "barrel_edge": 0.0222,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.0,
            "whiff_edge": 0.4286,
            "bb_edge": 0.575,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.1548
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "694973",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 86,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 86,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 92.62832752735103,
              "release_spin_rate": 2107.08006848347,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 86,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 92.62832752735103,
                "release_spin_rate": 2107.08006848347,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 92.6283,
              "release_spin_rate": 2107.0801,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.1548,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 1.1059,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.4767,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9595,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0509,
          "walk_factor": 0.954,
          "homer_factor": 0.9717,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.018,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "694973",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9595,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9595,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.954,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9717,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0509,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 7,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 25,
      "Pitches": 96,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was -4."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260924_STL@PIT.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260924

20260924_TB@NYY

away

Ian Seymour

True

5.0

2/1

2/0

5/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.028795811518325,
      "WHIP": 1.130890052356021,
      "IP": 127.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 44,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.8,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.067,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.2879,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9755,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0646,
      "walk_factor": 0.952,
      "homer_factor": 1.0397,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 29.0,
      "bb_percent": 6.7,
      "woba": 0.317,
      "xwoba": 0.295,
      "barrel_percent": 10.4,
      "hard_hit_percent": 37.3,
      "whiff_percent": 29.4
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 302,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 25.979,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8386,
        "prior_weight": 0.1614
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "693855",
      "report_date": "20260924",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 44,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 26.0,
            "ER": 15.0,
            "R": 17.0,
            "H": 29.0,
            "BB": 4.0,
            "SO": 32.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 113.0,
            "Pitches": 417.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.4,
            "H": 5.8,
            "BB": 0.8,
            "SO": 6.4,
            "HR": 1.4,
            "BF": 22.6,
            "Pitches": 83.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.1923,
            "WHIP": 1.2692,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.57692,
            "H_per_IP": 1.11538,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.15385,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.23077,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.26923
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 53.2,
            "ER": 24.0,
            "R": 26.0,
            "H": 55.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 69.0,
            "HR": 13.0,
            "BF": 228.0,
            "Pitches": 859.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.6,
            "H": 5.5,
            "BB": 0.9,
            "SO": 6.9,
            "HR": 1.3,
            "BF": 22.8,
            "Pitches": 85.9
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.0248,
            "WHIP": 1.1925,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.4472,
            "H_per_IP": 1.02484,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.1677,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.28571,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.24224
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 44,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 127.1,
            "ER": 57.0,
            "R": 62.0,
            "H": 108.0,
            "BB": 36.0,
            "SO": 155.0,
            "HR": 25.0,
            "BF": 529.0,
            "Pitches": 2042.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.0,
            "ER": 1.2955,
            "R": 1.4091,
            "H": 2.4545,
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      },
      "blend_segments": {},
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        "predicted_ER": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
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    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
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        "trend": "stable"
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      "pitching": {
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      "fielding": {
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-18T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.945486364893428,
    "stat_evolution": [
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        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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          "prior_size": 5.0,
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    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "693855",
      "player_name": "Ian Seymour",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "TB",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
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          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
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          "changed_metrics": [],
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          "weights": {},
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        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            {
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            {
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          ],
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
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          {
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          {
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          {
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          {
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        ],
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          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "TB",
        "games": 158,
        "wins": 96,
        "losses": 62,
        "win_pct": 0.6076,
        "runs_scored": 715.0,
        "runs_allowed": 636.0,
        "run_differential": 79.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.5,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5253,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0253,
        "offense_index": 1.0086,
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        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.7,
          "run_differential": 20.0
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        "available": true,
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      "opponent": {
        "team": "NYY",
        "games": 158,
        "wins": 91,
        "losses": 67,
        "win_pct": 0.5759,
        "runs_scored": 725.0,
        "runs_allowed": 584.0,
        "run_differential": 141.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.8924,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5886,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.6962,
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          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.2,
          "run_differential": 18.0
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        "available": true,
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      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0139,
        "offense_edge": 0.0086,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0227,
        "defense_strength": 0.1146,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.2139,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0031,
        "run_prevention": 0.9915,
        "strikeout": 0.9986
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "693855",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "693855",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 500.0,
            "k_percent": 29.0,
            "bb_percent": 6.7,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.295,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.6,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 10.4,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.3,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.1995,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8607,
            "whiff_percent": 29.4,
            "swing_percent": 51.5
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 135.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.913,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
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          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.0673,
            "command_and_miss": 0.785,
            "regression_edge": 0.6286,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.4571,
            "barrel_edge": -0.7111,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.0857,
            "whiff_edge": 0.6143,
            "bb_edge": 0.6,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.2091
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "693855",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 84,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 84,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 86.1295711647252,
              "release_spin_rate": 1962.9440503947853,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 84,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 86.1295711647252,
                "release_spin_rate": 1962.9440503947853,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 86.1296,
              "release_spin_rate": 1962.9441,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
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            "components": {
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              "velocity_edge": -1.4936,
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              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.2879,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9755,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0646,
          "walk_factor": 0.952,
          "homer_factor": 1.0397,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.022,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "693855",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
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            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9755,
            "adjusted": 3
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          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9755,
            "adjusted": 5
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          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.952,
            "adjusted": 1
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          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0397,
            "adjusted": 2
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 1.0646,
            "adjusted": 7
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
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      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 0,
      "predicted_ER": 0,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 19,
      "Pitches": 77,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260924_TB@NYY.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260924

20260924_TB@NYY

home

Cam Schlittler

True

6.1

3.0

-10

3/3

2/2

8/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "ERA": 1.9353146853146854,
      "WHIP": 0.9073426573426574,
      "IP": 190.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 32,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.958,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.533,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.7044,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9401,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.076,
      "walk_factor": 0.944,
      "homer_factor": 0.9644,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 31.3,
      "bb_percent": 6.3,
      "woba": 0.243,
      "xwoba": 0.262,
      "barrel_percent": 7.4,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.4,
      "whiff_percent": 29.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 2,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 32.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8649,
        "prior_weight": 0.1351
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "693645",
      "report_date": "20260924",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 32,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 32.2,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 5.0,
            "H": 11.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 41.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 120.0,
            "Pitches": 489.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.2,
            "ER": 0.6,
            "R": 1.0,
            "H": 2.2,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 8.2,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 24.0,
            "Pitches": 97.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 0.8265,
            "WHIP": 0.6429,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.09184,
            "H_per_IP": 0.33673,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.30612,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.2551,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.06122
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 60.1,
            "ER": 11.0,
            "R": 13.0,
            "H": 30.0,
            "BB": 22.0,
            "SO": 77.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 232.0,
            "Pitches": 954.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.1,
            "R": 1.3,
            "H": 3.0,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 7.7,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 23.2,
            "Pitches": 95.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.6409,
            "WHIP": 0.8619,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.18232,
            "H_per_IP": 0.49724,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.36464,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.27624,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0663
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        },
        "season": {
          "games": 32,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 190.2,
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            "HR": 16.0,
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            "Pitches": 2971.0
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          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.2812,
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          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.9353,
            "WHIP": 0.9073,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.21503,
            "H_per_IP": 0.66084,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.2465,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.22727,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08392
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.1,
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        "predicted_BB": 2.036,
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        "predicted_ERA": 1.774,
        "predicted_WHIP": 0.8516
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
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      "adaptive_parameters": {
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      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8649,
        "prior_weight": 0.1351
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      "applied_metrics": {
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          "model": 6.1,
          "form": 6.1,
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.243,
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 3.333,
          "final": 3.1974,
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        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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          "form": 2.036,
          "final": 2.0213,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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          "final": 6.1653,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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          "form": 1.774,
          "final": 1.774,
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
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          "final": 0.8516,
          "source": "form_only"
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    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
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        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
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        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
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        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
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      "pitching": {
        "IP": 60.1,
        "ER": 11,
        "H": 30,
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        "SO": 77,
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        "K9": 11.486187845303867,
        "HR9": 0.5966850828729282,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 7,
        "dominant_form": true,
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      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-19T00:00:00"
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    "recent_form_boost": 0.6884402565813702,
    "stat_evolution": [
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        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
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        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
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          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
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        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 32.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8649,
          "prior_weight": 0.1351
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      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 1,
          "predicted_H": 3,
          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 8,
          "predicted_HR": 0
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "693645",
      "player_name": "Cam Schlittler",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "NYY",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
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          "stats": {
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            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.3333,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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              "percent_delta": -0.0368,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 4.0,
              "percent_delta": 1.0,
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              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 3,
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            "biggest_deboost": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
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            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.1,
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          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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              "percent_delta": null,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            "after": 6.1,
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            "percent_delta": -0.0368,
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            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
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            "percent_delta": 1.0,
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        ],
        "summary": {
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          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.5,
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            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "NYY",
        "games": 158,
        "wins": 91,
        "losses": 67,
        "win_pct": 0.5759,
        "runs_scored": 725.0,
        "runs_allowed": 584.0,
        "run_differential": 141.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.8924,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5886,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.6962,
        "offense_index": 1.0227,
        "defense_index": 1.2139,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.2,
          "run_differential": 18.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.2089
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "TB",
        "games": 158,
        "wins": 96,
        "losses": 62,
        "win_pct": 0.6076,
        "runs_scored": 715.0,
        "runs_allowed": 636.0,
        "run_differential": 79.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.5,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5253,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0253,
        "offense_index": 1.0086,
        "defense_index": 1.1146,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.7,
          "run_differential": 20.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.2228
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0139,
        "offense_edge": 0.0227,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0086,
        "defense_strength": 0.2139,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1146,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
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      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0055,
        "run_prevention": 0.9807,
        "strikeout": 0.9989
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "693645",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "693645",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 691.0,
            "k_percent": 31.3,
            "bb_percent": 6.3,
            "woba": 0.243,
            "xwoba": 0.262,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 32.5,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.4,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.4,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6822,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.7825,
            "whiff_percent": 29.1,
            "swing_percent": 52.0
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 135.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.913,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
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          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.8793,
            "command_and_miss": 0.9379,
            "regression_edge": -0.5429,
            "xwoba_edge": 1.4,
            "barrel_edge": -0.0444,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.0714,
            "whiff_edge": 0.5714,
            "bb_edge": 0.7,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.28
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "693645",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 97,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 97,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 95.84565678559713,
              "release_spin_rate": 2515.855995429108,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 97,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 95.84565678559713,
                "release_spin_rate": 2515.855995429108,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 95.8457,
              "release_spin_rate": 2515.856,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.28,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 2.0,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.7044,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9401,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.076,
          "walk_factor": 0.944,
          "homer_factor": 0.9644,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.019,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "693645",
            "espn_rank": null
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9401,
            "adjusted": 1
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          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9401,
            "adjusted": 3
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          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.944,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9644,
            "adjusted": 0
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 8.0,
            "factor": 1.076,
            "adjusted": 9
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.1,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 8,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 24,
      "Pitches": 100,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least three innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -10 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: True; actual quality start: False."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260924_TB@NYY.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}