Continuous postgame learning

daily_20260923 · dates 20260923 · generated 2026-09-24T09:00:24.337237+00:00

8-8

Winner picks · 50.0%

Comparable starters · 2 identity mismatches

13/28

Starter ER within ±1

18/28

Starter workload within ±1 inning

Slate coverage

Every calendar day in the requested window is listed. Pending means the prediction exists but the official final result has not settled; Missing review artifact identifies a data gap instead of hiding the day.

Date	Games	Settled	Pending	Hits	Misses	Calibration traces	Review status	Pipeline versions
20260923	16	16	0	8	8	16	Available	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Prioritized optimization roadmap

Runtime evidence for the six recommendations. “Observed games” counts artifacts generated with the relevant trace; older artifacts remain honestly blank.

Priority	Change	Status	Observed games	Evidence
P1	Empirical Confidence Blend	Implemented And Applied	16	applied games: 16formula: w_emp=min(0.5,sample_size/200); final=(1-w_emp)raw+w_empempirical_hit_rate
P1	H2H Base Feature	Implemented And Monitored	16	available games: 16
P2	Score Distribution Widening	Implemented Above 1.4X	16	variance multipliers: [2.15]
P2	Simulation Flip Control	Diagnostic Only Without Independent Support	16	simulation flip candidates: 0published flips: 0
P3	Recent Form Quality Blend	Implemented Last 10	16	configured window: 10last 10 games: 16observed windows: [10]
P3	Continuous Calibration Audit	Implemented	16	settled games: 16metric: bucket_calibration_error

Confidence calibration by bucket

bucket_calibration_error = average published confidence − observed hit rate. Positive means overconfident; negative means underconfident. Weighted absolute error: 0.1108.

Bucket	Games	Average confidence	Observed hit rate	Calibration error	Direction
0.50-0.55	10	51.6%	40.0%	11.6%	overconfident
0.55-0.60	6	56.5%	66.7%	-10.1%	underconfident

Where the score pipeline gained or lost quality

Direct comparison against official final runs. Positive deltas mean the stage was worse than historical_ml; this is score error, not a synthetic one-game ERA.

Stage	Games	Team-run MAE	Total-run MAE	Margin MAE	Winner accuracy	Δ team MAE vs base	Δ margin MAE vs base
historical_ml	16	2.053	3.0249	2.7293	50.0%	0.0	0.0
variance_applied	16	2.0625	3.125	2.875	37.5%	0.0095	0.1457
enhanced_prediction	16	2.2188	3.6875	2.4375	50.0%	0.1658	-0.2918
embedded_savant_run_environment	16	2.2812	3.8125	2.4375	50.0%	0.2282	-0.2918
fundamental_edge_target_review	16	2.2812	3.8125	2.4375	50.0%	0.2282	-0.2918
capped_target	16	2.2812	3.8125	2.4375	50.0%	0.2282	-0.2918
simulation_result	16	2.2812	3.8125	2.4375	50.0%	0.2282	-0.2918
published_final	16	2.2812	3.8125	2.4375	50.0%	0.2282	-0.2918

Largest measured regression

{
  "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
  "games": 16,
  "team_run_mae": 2.2812,
  "total_run_mae": 3.8125,
  "margin_mae": 2.4375,
  "winner_hits": 8,
  "winner_accuracy": 0.5,
  "team_run_mae_delta_vs_historical_ml": 0.2282,
  "margin_mae_delta_vs_historical_ml": -0.2918
}

Automatic questions

Which recorded score stage reinforced losing picks?

partial_attribution sample=8

Largest positive recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. Positive, negative, net, absolute, and unchanged movements are shown separately so opposite games cannot cancel into a misleading zero. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution.

Stage	Positive Toward Pick Run Delta	Negative Away From Pick Run Delta	Net Toward Pick Run Delta	Absolute Run Movement	Games Recorded	Games Supporting Pick	Games Opposing Pick	Games Unchanged	Meaning
enhanced_prediction	5.0	-2.0	3.0	7.0	8	3	2	3	reinforced final pick
embedded_savant_run_environment	2.0	0.0	2.0	2.0	8	2	0	6	reinforced final pick
variance_applied	1.1677	-1.0725	0.0952	2.2402	8	4	4	0	reinforced final pick
fundamental_edge_target_review	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	8	0	0	8	recorded but did not change score margin
capped_target	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	8	0	0	8	recorded but did not change score margin
simulation_result	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	8	0	0	8	recorded but did not change score margin

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "partial_attribution",
  "sample_size": 8,
  "top_stage": "enhanced_prediction",
  "ranking": [
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 5.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -2.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 3.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 7.0,
      "games_recorded": 8,
      "games_supporting_pick": 3,
      "games_opposing_pick": 2,
      "games_unchanged": 3,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 2.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 2.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 2.0,
      "games_recorded": 8,
      "games_supporting_pick": 2,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 6,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.1677,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -1.0725,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0952,
      "absolute_run_movement": 2.2402,
      "games_recorded": 8,
      "games_supporting_pick": 4,
      "games_opposing_pick": 4,
      "games_unchanged": 0,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 8,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 8,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 8,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 8,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 8,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 8,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    }
  ],
  "interpretation": "Largest positive recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. Positive, negative, net, absolute, and unchanged movements are shown separately so opposite games cannot cancel into a misleading zero. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution."
}

Which recorded score stage reinforced winning picks?

partial_attribution sample=8

Stage	Positive Toward Pick Run Delta	Negative Away From Pick Run Delta	Net Toward Pick Run Delta	Absolute Run Movement	Games Recorded	Games Supporting Pick	Games Opposing Pick	Games Unchanged	Meaning
enhanced_prediction	8.0	-2.0	6.0	10.0	8	5	1	2	reinforced final pick
embedded_savant_run_environment	2.0	0.0	2.0	2.0	8	2	0	6	reinforced final pick
variance_applied	0.8197	-2.718	-1.8983	3.5377	8	3	5	0	reinforced final pick
fundamental_edge_target_review	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	8	0	0	8	recorded but did not change score margin
capped_target	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	8	0	0	8	recorded but did not change score margin
simulation_result	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	8	0	0	8	recorded but did not change score margin

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "partial_attribution",
  "sample_size": 8,
  "top_stage": "enhanced_prediction",
  "ranking": [
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 8.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -2.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 6.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 10.0,
      "games_recorded": 8,
      "games_supporting_pick": 5,
      "games_opposing_pick": 1,
      "games_unchanged": 2,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 2.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 2.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 2.0,
      "games_recorded": 8,
      "games_supporting_pick": 2,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 6,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.8197,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -2.718,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": -1.8983,
      "absolute_run_movement": 3.5377,
      "games_recorded": 8,
      "games_supporting_pick": 3,
      "games_opposing_pick": 5,
      "games_unchanged": 0,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 8,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 8,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 8,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 8,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 8,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 8,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    }
  ],
  "interpretation": "Largest positive recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. Positive, negative, net, absolute, and unchanged movements are shown separately so opposite games cannot cancel into a misleading zero. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution."
}

Are Overs performing worse than Unders?

not_measurable sample=0

The current artifacts contain predicted totals but no total line, Over/Under selection, price, or settled total bet.

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "The current artifacts contain predicted totals but no total line, Over/Under selection, price, or settled total bet.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "total_line",
    "total_selection",
    "odds",
    "settled_result"
  ]
}

Are hitter props outperforming pitcher props?

not_measurable sample=0

Player stat projections are not stored as priced, selected, and settled prop predictions.

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "Player stat projections are not stored as priced, selected, and settled prop predictions.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "prop_family",
    "prop_line",
    "selection",
    "odds",
    "settled_result"
  ]
}

Which sportsbooks produce better opportunities?

not_measurable sample=0

No settled prediction was linked to a sportsbook snapshot.

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "No settled prediction was linked to a sportsbook snapshot.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "sportsbook",
    "selection_odds",
    "settled_profit"
  ],
  "books": []
}

Which confidence ranges underperform?

insufficient_sample sample=16

Range	Sample Size	Hits	Misses	Accuracy
[0.000, 0.525)	7	4	3	0.5714
[0.525, 0.550)	3	0	3	0.0
[0.550, 0.600)	6	4	2	0.6667
[0.600, 1.010)	0	0	0

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 16,
  "minimum_recommended_sample": 20,
  "worst_observed_range": {
    "range": "[0.525, 0.550)",
    "sample_size": 3,
    "hits": 0,
    "misses": 3,
    "accuracy": 0.0
  },
  "ranges": [
    {
      "range": "[0.000, 0.525)",
      "sample_size": 7,
      "hits": 4,
      "misses": 3,
      "accuracy": 0.5714
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.525, 0.550)",
      "sample_size": 3,
      "hits": 0,
      "misses": 3,
      "accuracy": 0.0
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.550, 0.600)",
      "sample_size": 6,
      "hits": 4,
      "misses": 2,
      "accuracy": 0.6667
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.600, 1.010)",
      "sample_size": 0,
      "hits": 0,
      "misses": 0,
      "accuracy": null
    }
  ]
}

Which monitored features are drifting?

insufficient_sample sample=16

Three slates are descriptive only and cannot establish statistical feature drift.

Date	Sample Size	Mean Confidence	Mean Predicted Total	Accuracy
20260923	16	0.5347	10.0625	0.5

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 16,
  "minimum_baseline_sample": 30,
  "minimum_recent_sample": 20,
  "reason": "Three slates are descriptive only and cannot establish statistical feature drift.",
  "daily_monitors": [
    {
      "date": "20260923",
      "sample_size": 16,
      "mean_confidence": 0.5347,
      "mean_predicted_total": 10.0625,
      "accuracy": 0.5
    }
  ],
  "features_monitored": [
    "confidence",
    "predicted_total",
    "winner_accuracy"
  ]
}

Which model version introduced errors?

insufficient_sample sample=16

Version error claims require at least 30 settled predictions per version.

Pipeline Version	Model Schema Version	Policy Version	Sample Size	Hits	Misses	Accuracy
enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	historical_game_temporal_v11	model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3	16	8	8	0.5

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 16,
  "minimum_sample_per_version": 30,
  "versions": [
    {
      "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "sample_size": 16,
      "hits": 8,
      "misses": 8,
      "accuracy": 0.5
    }
  ],
  "reason": "Version error claims require at least 30 settled predictions per version."
}

Game processing context

How each game moved from the historical model through confidence calibration, H2H and recent-form signals, score distribution and simulation policy. Postgame learning is added only after the official result settles.

20260923_ARI@COL

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickARI

Published scoreARI 8 - 6 COL

Final confidence56.0%

Calibrationraw 72.2% → blended 64.7%

Empirical signalhit rate 57.2% · weight 50.0% · n=404

H2H base featurehome net -19.0 · absolute 19.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -1.1737

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	5.409622421285718-5.115400944938096	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	8-6	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	8-6	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	8-6	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	8-6	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	8-6	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "ARI",
    "away_runs": 8,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "confidence": -0.12,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.56,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.44,
    "away_win_probability": 0.56
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.12,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "ARI wins 8-6",
    "away_runs": 8,
    "home_runs": 6
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 8,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "predicted_score_text": "ARI 8 - 6 COL",
    "confidence": 0.56,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.722452,
    "sample_size": 404,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5718,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.647126,
    "published_confidence": 0.56,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -19.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 19.0,
    "home_average_margin": -3.8,
    "home_run_delta": -0.1096,
    "away_run_delta": 0.1096,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -9.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -8.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -1.4331,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.692,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -1.1737
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 8,
        "probability": 0.011876227288395186
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 7,
        "probability": 0.01181141618102686
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 8,
        "probability": 0.011669517029546652
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 7,
        "probability": 0.011605833984184471
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 9,
        "probability": 0.011231529654019846
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.03133078058064224,
      "1": 0.047895916008792484,
      "2": 0.06749714789133111,
      "3": 0.08768635762751262,
      "4": 0.10501184984535128,
      "5": 0.11593224804297034,
      "6": 0.11798583645979839,
      "7": 0.11069172724362424,
      "8": 0.0957326592215859,
      "9": 0.07632463765434222,
      "10": 0.056095632556326505,
      "11": 0.03800607474519219,
      "12": 0.0237375917623808,
      "13": 0.013667213070291367,
      "14": 0.007254090067968854,
      "15": 0.00354932356115918,
      "16": 0.0016009136607305395
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.01732148090983171,
      "1": 0.0267469578074641,
      "2": 0.03884611978513611,
      "3": 0.0530645855626612,
      "4": 0.06817824029166457,
      "5": 0.08238927439435863,
      "6": 0.09364389032151396,
      "7": 0.10010876335187396,
      "8": 0.10065807595848,
      "9": 0.09519388081676051,
      "10": 0.084674632243266,
      "11": 0.07084047837104991,
      "12": 0.055743409782368136,
      "13": 0.041256222003809594,
      "14": 0.028718996415014884,
      "15": 0.018803250973204073,
      "16": 0.011579251994234223,
      "17": 0.0067067473655147425,
      "18": 0.00365365274803657,
      "19": 0.0018720889037568476
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 8,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "ARI 8 - 6 COL",
      "winner": "ARI"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 8,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "ARI 8 - 6 COL",
      "winner": "ARI"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0699,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.762,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
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      "away_runs": 8,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "winner": "ARI",
      "model_winner": "ARI",
      "simulation_winner": "ARI",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 5,
        "published_winner": "ARI",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.8,
        "draw_majority_team": "ARI",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
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        "home_runs": 6
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 8,
        "home_runs": 6
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    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 2,
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      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 8,
        "home_runs": 6,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
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      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
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  },
  "decision_profile": {
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    "internal_signal_score": 0.7065,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
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    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
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      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.692,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0699,
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      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.2,
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      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 4,
        "median": 9,
        "max": 13,
        "range": 9
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    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
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          "runs_scored": 729,
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          "run_differential_per_game": -1.1592356687898089,
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        },
        "away": {
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          "games": 157,
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        "run_differential_edge_per_game": -1.1847,
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        "quality_edge": -1.1737,
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          "alignment": "aligned",
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        "margin_adjustment": -0.493,
        "reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
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          "large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": false,
          "method": "standard_bounded_season_recent_adjustment"
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        "adjusted_score": {
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          "home_runs": 4.184,
          "home_win_probability": 0.1412
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      },
      "score_distribution": {
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      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
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    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
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      "away_runs": 5.409622421285718,
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      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 8,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 8,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 8,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 8,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 8,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260923_CHW@KC

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickCHW

Published scoreCHW 7 - 5 KC

Final confidence56.0%

Calibrationraw 76.5% → blended 66.8%

Empirical signalhit rate 57.1% · weight 50.0% · n=126

H2H base featurehome net -28.0 · absolute 28.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.9908

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	5.3337477189275315-3.2415545520718902	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-3	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	6-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	7-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	7-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	7-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	7-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "CHW",
    "away_runs": 7,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": -0.12,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.56,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.44,
    "away_win_probability": 0.56
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.12,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "CHW wins 7-5",
    "away_runs": 7,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 7,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "CHW 7 - 5 KC",
    "confidence": 0.56,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.764902,
    "sample_size": 126,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5714,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.668151,
    "published_confidence": 0.56,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -28.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 28.0,
    "home_average_margin": -5.6,
    "home_run_delta": -0.1615,
    "away_run_delta": 0.1615,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -21.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -1.0892,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.808,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.9908
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  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.014623176521049525
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 7,
        "probability": 0.014541144216070228
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      {
        "home_runs": 4,
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        "probability": 0.014424947272671566
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        "probability": 0.013678310791373428
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    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.045350592442246505,
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      "2": 0.09406664049656167,
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      "12": 0.008778757286678622,
      "13": 0.003988335998930155,
      "14": 0.0016390014437435974
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    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.02496139514822111,
      "1": 0.038330112224489093,
      "2": 0.05474682405637539,
      "3": 0.0727319737847022,
      "4": 0.08987510707924219,
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      "14": 0.013896265769510351,
      "15": 0.007741690453538015,
      "16": 0.004011632094310968
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    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "CHW 7 - 5 KC",
      "winner": "CHW"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "CHW 7 - 5 KC",
      "winner": "CHW"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.039,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -1.018,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "CHW",
      "model_winner": "CHW",
      "simulation_winner": "CHW",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 6,
        "published_winner": "CHW",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667,
        "draw_majority_team": "CHW",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
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      },
      "simulation_score": {
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    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.9908,
      "winner": "CHW",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 7,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "CHW",
    "display_confidence": 0.56,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6722,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.56,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.9908,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.808,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.039,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.6667,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.6667,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.1667,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.3333,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 5,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 11,
        "range": 6
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
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    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
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        "risk_tier": "low",
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    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
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    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-23T22:40:32.515098+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-23T23:40:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
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    },
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      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 5,
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    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
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    }
  ]
}

20260923_CIN@ATL

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickATL

Published scoreCIN 5 - 6 ATL

Final confidence56.0%

Calibrationraw 75.9% → blended 65.6%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.4% · weight 50.0% · n=121

H2H base featurehome net 2.0 · absolute 2.0 · n=4

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 1.4455

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.4523480439504493-6.194669647770747	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	3-6	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-6	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-6	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-6	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-6	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-6	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "ATL",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "confidence": 0.12,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.56,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.56,
    "away_win_probability": 0.44
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.12,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "ATL wins 6-5",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 6
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "predicted_score_text": "CIN 5 - 6 ATL",
    "confidence": 0.56,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.75887,
    "sample_size": 121,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5537,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.656285,
    "published_confidence": 0.56,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 4,
    "sample_weight": 0.05,
    "home_net_margin": 2.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 2.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.5,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0125,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0125,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
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      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 1.9331,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.54,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
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    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 1.4455
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  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
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        "probability": 0.014215125159353467
      },
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            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
            "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
            "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "diagnostics": {
      "confidence_calibration": {
        "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
        "applied": true,
        "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
        "raw_confidence": 0.75887,
        "sample_size": 121,
        "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5537,
        "empirical_weight": 0.5,
        "blended_confidence": 0.656285
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      "confidence_governor": {
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        "policy": "align_to_calibrated_probability_v2",
        "raw_confidence": 0.56,
        "final_confidence": 0.6499,
        "calibrated_pick_probability": 0.6499,
        "shrinkage_weight": 0.915827,
        "hard_maximum": 0.9,
        "confidence_floor": 0.505,
        "score_gap": 1.5519,
        "calibration_sample_size": 121,
        "calibration_empirical_hit_rate": 0.5537,
        "calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.5468,
        "calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
        "season_quality_edge": 1.4455,
        "reasons": [
          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability",
          "season run-differential edge supports the pick"
        ],
        "score_coherence": {
          "policy": "probability_follows_published_score_v1",
          "published_score": {
            "away_runs": 5,
            "home_runs": 6
          },
          "margin": 1,
          "probability_before": 0.649944,
          "margin_implied_home_probability": 0.575796,
          "shrinkage_weight": 0.915827,
          "side_flipped": false,
          "applied": true,
          "probability_after": 0.61287,
          "aligned_pick_probability": 0.61287
        },
        "starter_experience": {
          "applied": false,
          "min_starter_games": 26,
          "shrink_factor": 1.0
        }
      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
        "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
        "available": true,
        "sample_size": 4,
        "sample_weight": 0.05,
        "home_net_margin": 2.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 2.0,
        "home_average_margin": 0.5,
        "home_run_delta": 0.0125,
        "away_run_delta": -0.0125,
        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": -4.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": -2.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 3.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 5.0
          }
        ],
        "adaptive_parameters": {
          "h2h.history_limit": 5,
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          "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
          "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
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      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
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        "home": {
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          "games": 157,
          "wins": 92,
          "losses": 65,
          "win_pct": 0.5859872611464968,
          "runs_scored": 722,
          "runs_allowed": 606,
          "run_differential": 116,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.7388535031847133,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "CIN",
          "games": 157,
          "wins": 73,
          "losses": 84,
          "win_pct": 0.46496815286624205,
          "runs_scored": 646,
          "runs_allowed": 805,
          "run_differential": -159,
          "run_differential_per_game": -1.0127388535031847,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 1.7516,
        "win_pct_edge": 0.121,
        "quality_edge": 1.4455,
        "season_quality_edge": 1.9331,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": 1.9331,
          "recent_quality_edge": 0.54,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": 1.4455
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 0.6071,
        "reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
          "adjustment": 0.6071,
          "cap": 1.4,
          "scale": 0.42,
          "quality_edge": 1.4455,
          "season_quality_edge": 1.9331,
          "recent_alignment": "aligned",
          "large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": false,
          "method": "standard_bounded_season_recent_adjustment"
        },
        "adjusted_score": {
          "away_runs": 1.678,
          "home_runs": 9.141,
          "home_win_probability": 0.92
        }
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
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            "away_runs": 5,
            "probability": 0.014781938339752488
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          {
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          {
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        ],
        "home_distribution": {
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          "15": 0.007150770366903715,
          "16": 0.0036085264314587263
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        "away_distribution": {
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          "11": 0.020691093332449107,
          "12": 0.010728279065041934,
          "13": 0.005035588341034101,
          "14": 0.002139655783862247
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        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 2.05,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.4523480439504493,
      "home_runs": 6.194669647770747,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260923_CLE@BOS

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickCLE

Published scoreCLE 5 - 4 BOS

Final confidence50.5%

Calibrationraw 55.6% → blended 54.9%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.3% · weight 50.0% · n=505

H2H base featurehome net 11.0 · absolute 11.0 · n=4

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.0583

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.912807674712477-5.001384880573751	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "CLE",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": -0.010518,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.505259,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.494741,
    "away_win_probability": 0.505259
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.010518,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "CLE wins 5-4 (Extra Innings - 10)",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "CLE 5 - 4 BOS",
    "confidence": 0.5052590775,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.556082,
    "sample_size": 505,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5426,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.549341,
    "published_confidence": 0.505259,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 4,
    "sample_weight": 0.05,
    "home_net_margin": 11.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 11.0,
    "home_average_margin": 2.75,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0687,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0687,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 8.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.5032,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.768,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.0583
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.01863432237596184
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.018517030991005178
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.018316966586225936
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.01820167275714231
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.017030505865193023
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.050484642274007493,
      "1": 0.07618748945279427,
      "2": 0.10329086982192219,
      "3": 0.1258038982757299,
      "4": 0.13765124859936692,
      "5": 0.135306949739123,
      "6": 0.11948515316183642,
      "7": 0.09478981545486732,
      "8": 0.06755590295280613,
      "9": 0.04325325750701611,
      "10": 0.02487873136497316,
      "11": 0.012855575784166556,
      "12": 0.005967723972350543,
      "13": 0.0024887416390399634
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04869959809874009,
      "1": 0.07358240133095455,
      "2": 0.1001209193138949,
      "3": 0.12268119365350502,
      "4": 0.1353734351527527,
      "5": 0.1345213441899018,
      "6": 0.12037914086599143,
      "7": 0.0970093451577408,
      "8": 0.07040089799310074,
      "9": 0.04600924608588262,
      "10": 0.02707785930569593,
      "11": 0.014351121130309,
      "12": 0.0068495119102241955,
      "13": 0.0029439858113061656
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "CLE 5 - 4 BOS",
      "winner": "CLE"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "CLE 5 - 4 BOS",
      "winner": "CLE"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0603,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.768,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "CLE",
      "model_winner": "CLE",
      "simulation_winner": "CLE",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 6,
        "published_winner": "CLE",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.3333,
        "draw_majority_team": "BOS",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.0583,
      "winner": "CLE",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "CLE",
    "display_confidence": 0.5053,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5237,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5053,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.0583,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.768,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0603,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.3333,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.3333,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.1667,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.5,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 3,
        "median": 9,
        "max": 11,
        "range": 8
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-982561b127534866",
      "config_hash": "sha256:53760a5ddffc6f180dee92a59d27889f1cdba857749a59d2378ee233c5952253",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-f4c3ec3952acc919",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-21T09:05:52.468019+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 2.15,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
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    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
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    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 5,
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    },
    {
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      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
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      "home_runs": 4,
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    }
  ]
}

20260923_HOU@SEA

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickSEA

Published scoreHOU 4 - 5 SEA

Final confidence51.5%

Calibrationraw 54.4% → blended 54.8%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.2% · weight 50.0% · n=777

H2H base featurehome net 1.0 · absolute 1.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.083

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.7163892507255993-4.440718053507966	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "SEA",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.030596,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.515298,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.515298,
    "away_win_probability": 0.484702
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.030596,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "SEA wins 5-4 (Extra Innings - 12)",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "HOU 4 - 5 SEA",
    "confidence": 0.5152982150000001,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
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            "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
            "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
            "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
            "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
            "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
            "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
            "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
            "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
            "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
            "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
            "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
            "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
            "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
            "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
            "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
            "context.lineup_context_min": 0.8,
            "context.lineup_context_weight": 1.0,
            "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
            "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
            "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
            "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
            "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
            "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
            "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
            "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
            "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
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        }
      }
    },
    "diagnostics": {
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        "applied": true,
        "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
        "raw_confidence": 0.543922,
        "sample_size": 777,
        "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5521,
        "empirical_weight": 0.5,
        "blended_confidence": 0.548011
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      "confidence_governor": {
        "applied": true,
        "policy": "align_to_calibrated_probability_v2",
        "raw_confidence": 0.53,
        "final_confidence": 0.5314,
        "calibrated_pick_probability": 0.5314,
        "shrinkage_weight": 0.985283,
        "hard_maximum": 0.9,
        "confidence_floor": 0.505,
        "score_gap": 0.1,
        "calibration_sample_size": 777,
        "calibration_empirical_hit_rate": 0.5521,
        "calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.5509,
        "calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.083,
        "reasons": [
          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability"
        ],
        "score_coherence": {
          "policy": "probability_follows_published_score_v1",
          "published_score": {
            "away_runs": 4,
            "home_runs": 5
          },
          "margin": 1,
          "probability_before": 0.531448,
          "margin_implied_home_probability": 0.575796,
          "shrinkage_weight": 0.985283,
          "side_flipped": false,
          "applied": false,
          "magnitude_pull_suppressed": true,
          "probability_after": 0.531448,
          "aligned_pick_probability": 0.531448
        },
        "starter_experience": {
          "applied": true,
          "min_starter_games": 6,
          "per_starter_career_games": {
            "669923": 29,
            "814490": 6
          },
          "shrink_factor": 0.675,
          "probability_before": 0.531448,
          "probability_after": 0.521227,
          "reason": "inexperienced starter (debut/thin history): confidence shrunk toward 0.5 by career-games factor; winner unchanged"
        }
      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
        "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
        "available": true,
        "sample_size": 5,
        "sample_weight": 0.0577,
        "home_net_margin": 1.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 1.0,
        "home_average_margin": 0.2,
        "home_run_delta": 0.0058,
        "away_run_delta": -0.0058,
        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": -7.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 1.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 5.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": -3.0
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          {
            "home_margin": 5.0
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        ],
        "adaptive_parameters": {
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          "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
        }
      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
        "applied": false,
        "home": {
          "team": "SEA",
          "games": 157,
          "wins": 73,
          "losses": 84,
          "win_pct": 0.46496815286624205,
          "runs_scored": 634,
          "runs_allowed": 697,
          "run_differential": -63,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.4012738853503185,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "HOU",
          "games": 157,
          "wins": 78,
          "losses": 79,
          "win_pct": 0.4968152866242038,
          "runs_scored": 695,
          "runs_allowed": 747,
          "run_differential": -52,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.33121019108280253,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": -0.0701,
        "win_pct_edge": -0.0318,
        "quality_edge": 0.083,
        "season_quality_edge": -0.1178,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": -0.1178,
          "recent_quality_edge": 0.456,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "conflict",
          "blended_quality_edge": 0.083
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 0.0,
        "reason": "season quality edge below action threshold"
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 4,
            "probability": 0.02184003492713372
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          {
            "home_runs": 5,
            "away_runs": 4,
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          {
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          {
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        ],
        "home_distribution": {
          "0": 0.054543867798177076,
          "1": 0.08365627838442313,
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          "3": 0.13721879817641358,
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          "6": 0.11703367714656218,
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          "8": 0.057711022006736785,
          "9": 0.033840568416834686,
          "10": 0.017596237597730838,
          "11": 0.00811344450849603,
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        "away_distribution": {
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          "1": 0.08679379991053862,
          "2": 0.11750782825212866,
          "3": 0.14064673366805838,
          "4": 0.1488254674225114,
          "5": 0.13922255941227915,
          "6": 0.11514013258080993,
          "7": 0.08418381260462038,
          "8": 0.054414571017951954,
          "9": 0.03109471513054954,
          "10": 0.015708789090462652,
          "11": 0.007015903207605266,
          "12": 0.002770187864821789
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 2.05,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.7163892507255993,
      "home_runs": 4.440718053507966,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260923_LAA@OAK

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickLAA

Published scoreLAA 5 - 4 OAK

Final confidence54.0%

Calibrationraw 70.1% → blended 62.8%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.4% · weight 50.0% · n=680

H2H base featurehome net 0.0 · absolute 0.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.6489

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	5.347463069729739-4.18628607631783	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "LAA",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": -0.08,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.54,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.46,
    "away_win_probability": 0.54
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.08,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "LAA wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "LAA 5 - 4 OAK",
    "confidence": 0.54,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.700811,
    "sample_size": 680,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5544,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.627606,
    "published_confidence": 0.54,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 0.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 0.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 6.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.8217,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.328,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.6489
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.01700572833385477
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.016841805982570388
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.016561786406643044
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.016402143319563852
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.015751074137893332
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05212164669980816,
      "1": 0.07857691091128938,
      "2": 0.10620147645415404,
      "3": 0.1286841141897606,
      "4": 0.13979064219035972,
      "5": 0.13614134673639158,
      "6": 0.11886685291004387,
      "7": 0.09304440575305854,
      "8": 0.06529479282353559,
      "9": 0.04107954358336498,
      "10": 0.02317028901159757,
      "11": 0.011716450767195345,
      "12": 0.005311527969440456
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.034976427456724205,
      "1": 0.05333681302932599,
      "2": 0.07460828177228174,
      "3": 0.0957316129171943,
      "4": 0.11267616981431654,
      "5": 0.12165140718573454,
      "6": 0.12047877968566795,
      "7": 0.10944913780763439,
      "8": 0.09120580718099769,
      "9": 0.06971737063742828,
      "10": 0.04888412765137967,
      "11": 0.03144148872173178,
      "12": 0.018550118775642045,
      "13": 0.01003918945129335,
      "14": 0.004983781193459592,
      "15": 0.002269486719187929
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "LAA 5 - 4 OAK",
      "winner": "LAA"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "LAA 5 - 4 OAK",
      "winner": "LAA"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0587,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.398,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "LAA",
      "model_winner": "LAA",
      "simulation_winner": "LAA",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "LAA",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "LAA",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.6489,
      "winner": "LAA",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "LAA",
    "display_confidence": 0.54,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6103,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.54,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.6489,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.328,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0587,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.5,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 3,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 7,
        "range": 4
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-982561b127534866",
      "config_hash": "sha256:53760a5ddffc6f180dee92a59d27889f1cdba857749a59d2378ee233c5952253",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-f4c3ec3952acc919",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-21T09:05:52.468019+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 2.15,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
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  ]
}

20260923_MIA@CHC

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickCHC

Published scoreMIA 5 - 6 CHC

Final confidence53.0%

Calibrationraw 59.8% → blended 58.3%

Empirical signalhit rate 56.8% · weight 50.0% · n=644

H2H base featurehome net -7.0 · absolute 7.0 · n=4

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.7969

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.555168633397771-5.228350511286496	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-6	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-6	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-6	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-6	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-6	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "CHC",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "confidence": 0.06,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.53,
    "away_win_probability": 0.47
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.06,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "CHC wins 6-5",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 6
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "predicted_score_text": "MIA 5 - 6 CHC",
    "confidence": 0.53,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.597738,
    "sample_size": 644,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5683,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.583019,
    "published_confidence": 0.53,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 4,
    "sample_weight": 0.05,
    "home_net_margin": -7.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 7.0,
    "home_average_margin": -1.75,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0437,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0437,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -6.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -7.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
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  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 1.0064,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.408,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.7969
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.015668183138782633
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.015544453927007127
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.015363394245918061
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      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.015242071904750206
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      {
        "home_runs": 7,
        "away_runs": 5,
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    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.0326023035717915,
      "1": 0.04979610026902181,
      "2": 0.06999090405615524,
      "3": 0.09052886977746012,
      "4": 0.10775360733418086,
      "5": 0.11802547657464203,
      "6": 0.11896492412645582,
      "7": 0.11034720208010487,
      "8": 0.09418959823303898,
      "9": 0.07398501865889356,
      "10": 0.05347907114887499,
      "11": 0.03557321754352229,
      "12": 0.02177517558020875,
      "13": 0.012265899656648758,
      "14": 0.006358232055052323,
      "15": 0.003033001084392283,
      "16": 0.0013313982495555309
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    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04436270415749494,
      "1": 0.0672232067198889,
      "2": 0.09226309148028643,
      "3": 0.11469496198033596,
      "4": 0.12914221867268436,
      "5": 0.13170422503802776,
      "6": 0.12165745679743709,
      "7": 0.10178536116974628,
      "8": 0.0771328667592364,
      "9": 0.052942102686734514,
      "10": 0.03291322673397276,
      "11": 0.018533067154541307,
      "12": 0.00945217382238143,
      "13": 0.004366401444990439,
      "14": 0.001826935382241521
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    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "MIA 5 - 6 CHC",
      "winner": "CHC"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "MIA 5 - 6 CHC",
      "winner": "CHC"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0127,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.408,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
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      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "winner": "CHC",
      "model_winner": "CHC",
      "simulation_winner": "CHC",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 6,
        "published_winner": "CHC",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667,
        "draw_majority_team": "CHC",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 6
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 6
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    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.7969,
      "winner": "CHC",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 6,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "CHC",
    "display_confidence": 0.53,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6002,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.7969,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.408,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0127,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.6667,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.1667,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.1667,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.3333,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 5,
        "median": 8,
        "max": 13,
        "range": 8
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
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        "recent.window_games": 10,
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        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
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        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
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        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
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        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
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        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
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        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
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        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
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        "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
        "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
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  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
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    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
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    "changes": [
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        "new_value": 2.15,
        "risk_tier": "low",
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    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
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    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-23T22:40:32.727817+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-23T23:40:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
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      "home_win_probability": 0.568568,
      "confidence": 0.568568,
      "predicted_score": {
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      "pipeline_provenance": {
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        "adaptive_configuration": {
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            "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
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            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
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            "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
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            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
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      }
    },
    "candidate_prediction": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.569269,
      "confidence": 0.569269,
      "predicted_score": {
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        "total_runs": 10
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            "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
            "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
            "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
            "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
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            "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
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            "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
            "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
            "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
            "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
            "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
            "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
            "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
            "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
            "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
            "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
            "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
            "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
            "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
            "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
            "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
            "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
            "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
            "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
            "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
            "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
            "context.lineup_context_min": 0.8,
            "context.lineup_context_weight": 1.0,
            "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
            "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
            "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
            "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
            "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
            "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
            "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
            "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
            "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "diagnostics": {
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        "applied": true,
        "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
        "raw_confidence": 0.597738,
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        "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5683,
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      "confidence_governor": {
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        "shrinkage_weight": 0.982326,
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        "calibration_sample_size": 644,
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        "calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.5665,
        "calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.7969,
        "reasons": [
          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability"
        ],
        "score_coherence": {
          "policy": "probability_follows_published_score_v1",
          "published_score": {
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            "home_runs": 6
          },
          "margin": 1,
          "probability_before": 0.569269,
          "margin_implied_home_probability": 0.575796,
          "shrinkage_weight": 0.982326,
          "side_flipped": false,
          "applied": false,
          "magnitude_pull_suppressed": true,
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        "starter_experience": {
          "applied": false,
          "min_starter_games": 22,
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      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
        "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
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        "sample_weight": 0.05,
        "home_net_margin": -7.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 7.0,
        "home_average_margin": -1.75,
        "home_run_delta": -0.0437,
        "away_run_delta": 0.0437,
        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": -6.0
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          {
            "home_margin": -7.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 1.0
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          {
            "home_margin": 5.0
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        ],
        "adaptive_parameters": {
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      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
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        "home": {
          "team": "CHC",
          "games": 157,
          "wins": 87,
          "losses": 70,
          "win_pct": 0.554140127388535,
          "runs_scored": 837,
          "runs_allowed": 691,
          "run_differential": 146,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.9299363057324841,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "MIA",
          "games": 157,
          "wins": 77,
          "losses": 80,
          "win_pct": 0.49044585987261147,
          "runs_scored": 700,
          "runs_allowed": 697,
          "run_differential": 3,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.01910828025477707,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 0.9108,
        "win_pct_edge": 0.0637,
        "quality_edge": 0.7969,
        "season_quality_edge": 1.0064,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": 1.0064,
          "recent_quality_edge": 0.408,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": 0.7969
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 0.3347,
        "reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
          "adjustment": 0.3347,
          "cap": 1.4,
          "scale": 0.42,
          "quality_edge": 0.7969,
          "season_quality_edge": 1.0064,
          "recent_alignment": "aligned",
          "large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": false,
          "method": "standard_bounded_season_recent_adjustment"
        },
        "adjusted_score": {
          "away_runs": 3.753,
          "home_runs": 6.092,
          "home_win_probability": 0.6988
        }
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
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          {
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          {
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            "probability": 0.015069771936284587
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        ],
        "home_distribution": {
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          "13": 0.01120951324867491,
          "14": 0.005627345411057744,
          "15": 0.002589158296825143
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        "away_distribution": {
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          "1": 0.06631168920035853,
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          "3": 0.11612707993213854,
          "4": 0.1315136309305277,
          "5": 0.134251269498428,
          "6": 0.12353112718549154,
          "7": 0.10245774131305484,
          "8": 0.07659907429566579,
          "9": 0.05161936230100965,
          "10": 0.03135538365908815,
          "11": 0.017168089687270707,
          "12": 0.008473097384941054,
          "13": 0.003769404917263133,
          "14": 0.0015115195120225407
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 2.05,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.555168633397771,
      "home_runs": 5.228350511286496,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260923_MIL@PHI

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickMIL

Published scoreMIL 5 - 3 PHI

Final confidence56.0%

Calibrationraw 74.2% → blended 65.4%

Empirical signalhit rate 56.6% · weight 50.0% · n=348

H2H base featurehome net -7.0 · absolute 7.0 · n=4

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -1.0088

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.950803699101863-3.613581452426851	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-3	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-3	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-3	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-3	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-3	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIL",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "confidence": -0.12,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.56,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.44,
    "away_win_probability": 0.56
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.12,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIL wins 5-3",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 3
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "predicted_score_text": "MIL 5 - 3 PHI",
    "confidence": 0.56,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.741824,
    "sample_size": 348,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5661,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.653962,
    "published_confidence": 0.56,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 4,
    "sample_weight": 0.05,
    "home_net_margin": -7.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 7.0,
    "home_average_margin": -1.75,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0437,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0437,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -6.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -1.1815,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.688,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -1.0088
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.02145358825107652
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.02064210926409364
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02034577794555124
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.020086384393521884
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.019688546431610228
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.08304722532396437,
      "1": 0.12256891200127605,
      "2": 0.15543580853282224,
      "3": 0.16937034165114898,
      "4": 0.15857663284352433,
      "5": 0.12757235178101256,
      "6": 0.0881839347341189,
      "7": 0.05237667508691204,
      "8": 0.026730182237462645,
      "9": 0.011721453124321244,
      "10": 0.004416482683436474
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.03888832867370493,
      "1": 0.0591467597186417,
      "2": 0.08208638431603393,
      "3": 0.10395366043100167,
      "4": 0.12012597806207011,
      "5": 0.126666735403205,
      "6": 0.12187558378201813,
      "7": 0.10700383202138852,
      "8": 0.08572558222349763,
      "9": 0.06266860773972506,
      "10": 0.0418040289649883,
      "11": 0.0254457188342285,
      "12": 0.014133177023966388,
      "13": 0.007162973820508568,
      "14": 0.0033126489850216936
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "MIL 5 - 3 PHI",
      "winner": "MIL"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "MIL 5 - 3 PHI",
      "winner": "MIL"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0509,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.688,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "winner": "MIL",
      "model_winner": "MIL",
      "simulation_winner": "MIL",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "MIL",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5,
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 3
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 3
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.0088,
      "winner": "MIL",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 3,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "MIL",
    "display_confidence": 0.56,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6471,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.56,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.0088,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.688,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0509,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.5,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.5,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 7,
        "median": 11,
        "max": 11,
        "range": 4
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
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          "14": 0.002827556531514767
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 2.05,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.950803699101863,
      "home_runs": 3.613581452426851,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260923_MIN@SF

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickMIN

Published scoreMIN 4 - 3 SF

Final confidence51.1%

Calibrationraw 51.0% → blended 53.3%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.6% · weight 50.0% · n=741

H2H base featurehome net 2.0 · absolute 2.0 · n=2

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.1368

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.908464899117625-4.0596856706026765	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-3	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-3	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-3	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-3	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-3	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIN",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "confidence": -0.02222,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.51111,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.48889,
    "away_win_probability": 0.51111
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.02222,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIN wins 4-3",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "predicted_score_text": "MIN 4 - 3 SF",
    "confidence": 0.5111098825,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5101,
    "sample_size": 741,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.556,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.53305,
    "published_confidence": 0.51111,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 2,
    "sample_weight": 0.03,
    "home_net_margin": 2.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 2.0,
    "home_average_margin": 1.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.015,
    "away_run_delta": -0.015,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.1867,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.044,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.1368
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  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.024779349333811658
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02464307302066722
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.024300204102501964
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.024166562892672952
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.0220005466693493
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.0735216232147596,
      "1": 0.10923059989802197,
      "2": 0.14129836866294768,
      "3": 0.15914521079945704,
      "4": 0.15606790365094822,
      "5": 0.13325920465849725,
      "6": 0.09907051805521087,
      "7": 0.0641291152264223,
      "8": 0.036143454522152646,
      "9": 0.017736489551965058,
      "10": 0.0075782560099684785,
      "11": 0.0028192557496488817
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.07064710013239983,
      "1": 0.10517023623324237,
      "2": 0.13686534955582513,
      "3": 0.15570276484811568,
      "4": 0.15484646315697548,
      "5": 0.1346196347040016,
      "6": 0.10230990406616511,
      "7": 0.06797185138240973,
      "8": 0.03947686649770555,
      "9": 0.020042800274923056,
      "10": 0.00889562110728968,
      "11": 0.0034514080409467434
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "MIN 4 - 3 SF",
      "winner": "MIN"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "MIN 4 - 3 SF",
      "winner": "MIN"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0726,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.044,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "winner": "MIN",
      "model_winner": "MIN",
      "simulation_winner": "MIN",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "MIN",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5,
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.1368,
      "winner": "MIN",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "MIN",
    "display_confidence": 0.5111,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5659,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5111,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.1368,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.044,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0726,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.5,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 1.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 3,
        "median": 5,
        "max": 5,
        "range": 2
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
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      "parent_config_id": "candidate-f4c3ec3952acc919",
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        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
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        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
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        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
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        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
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        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
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        "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
        "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
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  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
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        "risk_tier": "low",
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    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
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    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
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      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-23T19:45:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
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      "predicted_score": {
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      "pipeline_provenance": {
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        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
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            "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
            "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
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        }
      }
    },
    "candidate_prediction": {
      "predicted_winner": "away",
      "home_win_probability": 0.484579,
      "confidence": 0.515421,
      "predicted_score": {
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      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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          "parent_config_id": "candidate-57e651c7f36832cf",
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            "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
            "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
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            "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
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            "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
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            "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
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            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
            "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
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            "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
            "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
            "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
            "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
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        "reasons": [
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        "starter_experience": {
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        "away": {
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      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
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      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 5,
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      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260923_NYM@TEX

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickNYM

Published scoreNYM 6 - 3 TEX

Final confidence59.5%

Calibrationraw 64.5% → blended 60.1%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.6% · weight 50.0% · n=284

H2H base featurehome net -3.0 · absolute 3.0 · n=1

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.1156

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.843804447899619-3.2546133471728216	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-3	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-3	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
Embedded Savant Run Environment	6-3	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	6-3	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	6-3	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	6-3	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYM",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "confidence": -0.190852,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.595426,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.404574,
    "away_win_probability": 0.595426
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.190852,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYM wins 6-3",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 3
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "predicted_score_text": "NYM 6 - 3 TEX",
    "confidence": 0.595426,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.645009,
    "sample_size": 284,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5563,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.600654,
    "published_confidence": 0.595426,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 1,
    "sample_weight": 0.0167,
    "home_net_margin": -3.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 3.0,
    "home_average_margin": -3.0,
    "home_run_delta": -0.025,
    "away_run_delta": 0.025,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.0637,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.212,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.1156
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.022061916677217967
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02174309226816475
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.02093485332133187
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02063231649570412
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.020252643884580816
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.08036200462141224,
      "1": 0.11883328088423684,
      "2": 0.15156719010750486,
      "3": 0.16674472210778588,
      "4": 0.158226338649781,
      "5": 0.12950461538249852,
      "6": 0.09142637478358391,
      "7": 0.05567209161092535,
      "8": 0.029240403552588626,
      "9": 0.013246738755311512,
      "10": 0.005176239544371366
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04520089543114842,
      "1": 0.06845461767941634,
      "2": 0.09379399089234979,
      "3": 0.11626897300150132,
      "4": 0.13039748421008338,
      "5": 0.1323095351885073,
      "6": 0.12145898010186645,
      "7": 0.10087526098314885,
      "8": 0.07579774190256786,
      "9": 0.051528134429713685,
      "10": 0.03169196193792283,
      "11": 0.01763479385327103,
      "12": 0.00887785819585524,
      "13": 0.004043547745333625,
      "14": 0.0016662244473139524
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "NYM 6 - 3 TEX",
      "winner": "NYM"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "NYM 6 - 3 TEX",
      "winner": "NYM"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.072,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.138,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "winner": "NYM",
      "model_winner": "NYM",
      "simulation_winner": "NYM",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 3,
        "published_winner": "NYM",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667,
        "draw_majority_team": "NYM",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 3,
      "simulation_margin": 3,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 3
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 3
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 3,
      "final_margin": 3,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.1156,
      "winner": "NYM",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 3,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "NYM",
    "display_confidence": 0.5954,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6187,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5954,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 3,
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          "9": 0.05015805551291953,
          "10": 0.030126457492063184,
          "11": 0.016291116650474075,
          "12": 0.00793138535975763,
          "13": 0.0034765034174967747,
          "14": 0.0013719291421723002
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 2.05,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.843804447899619,
      "home_runs": 3.2546133471728216,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260923_SD@LAD

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickLAD

Published scoreSD 5 - 7 LAD

Final confidence53.5%

Calibrationraw 56.6% → blended 56.0%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.3% · weight 50.0% · n=680

H2H base featurehome net 13.0 · absolute 13.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.7494

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.179140173640945-5.325048887801168	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-6	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-7	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-7	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-7	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-7	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "LAD",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 7,
    "confidence": 0.070312,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.535156,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.535156,
    "away_win_probability": 0.464844
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.070312,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "LAD wins 7-5",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 7
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 7,
    "predicted_score_text": "SD 5 - 7 LAD",
    "confidence": 0.535156,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.566172,
    "sample_size": 680,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5529,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.559536,
    "published_confidence": 0.535156,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 13.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 13.0,
    "home_average_margin": 2.6,
    "home_run_delta": 0.075,
    "away_run_delta": -0.075,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 7.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 1.1529,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.0,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.7494
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.016109771224927807
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.015664133157284092
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.015474327082196685
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.015260282256441007
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.015147134492184666
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.0374884431660508,
      "1": 0.05707210481478138,
      "2": 0.0794343737029583,
      "3": 0.10107672541485675,
      "4": 0.11758500807456473,
      "5": 0.12505781740697525,
      "6": 0.12159839372461102,
      "7": 0.1080943347684245,
      "8": 0.08784885997834903,
      "9": 0.065272076425863,
      "10": 0.04433807452737686,
      "11": 0.027534952476931468,
      "12": 0.015633273839737956,
      "13": 0.008114721906561586,
      "14": 0.0038508397719572737
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.040977593693553624,
      "1": 0.06223600138096241,
      "2": 0.08600674352849245,
      "3": 0.1081481063773104,
      "4": 0.12373738326040533,
      "5": 0.1288185861464528,
      "6": 0.1220258163212582,
      "7": 0.1051769342933106,
      "8": 0.08248688182495145,
      "9": 0.05886333420666202,
      "10": 0.03822085716647758,
      "11": 0.022581437222279784,
      "12": 0.012139430957590304,
      "13": 0.005938006544652325,
      "14": 0.002642887075640754
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "score_text": "SD 5 - 7 LAD",
      "winner": "LAD"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "score_text": "SD 5 - 7 LAD",
      "winner": "LAD"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.042,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.21,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "winner": "LAD",
      "model_winner": "LAD",
      "simulation_winner": "LAD",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 5,
        "published_winner": "LAD",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6,
        "draw_majority_team": "LAD",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 7
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 7
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.7494,
      "winner": "LAD",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 7,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "LAD",
    "display_confidence": 0.5352,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6192,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5352,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.7494,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.0,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.042,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.6,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.4,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 3,
        "median": 9,
        "max": 10,
        "range": 7
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
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      "parent_config_id": "candidate-f4c3ec3952acc919",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-21T09:05:52.468019+00:00",
      "parameters": {
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        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
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        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
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        "recent.window_games": 10,
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        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
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        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
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        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
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        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
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        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
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        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
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        "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
        "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
        "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
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        "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
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        "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
        "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
        "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
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        "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
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  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
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      "config_hash": "sha256:9ca63931a023e9b6f5e0ed6f872bef54d37bd4e9dc951e5e10b28553b15e3582",
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    "changes": [
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        "new_value": 2.15,
        "risk_tier": "low",
        "evaluation_mode": "artifact_replay"
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    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
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    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-24T01:36:31.439717+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-24T02:10:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.54136,
      "confidence": 0.54136,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "total_runs": 10
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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          "parameters": {
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            "confidence.base_cap": 0.58,
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            "recent.window_games": 10,
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            "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
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            "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
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            "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
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            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
            "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
            "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
            "h2h.history_limit": 5,
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            "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
            "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
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            "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
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            "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
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            "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
            "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
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            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
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      }
    },
    "candidate_prediction": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.541567,
      "confidence": 0.541567,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 6,
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      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
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        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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          "config_id": "candidate-f4c3ec3952acc919",
          "config_hash": "sha256:9ca63931a023e9b6f5e0ed6f872bef54d37bd4e9dc951e5e10b28553b15e3582",
          "parent_config_id": "candidate-57e651c7f36832cf",
          "created_at_utc": "2026-09-18T09:05:32.063728+00:00",
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            "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
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            "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
            "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
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            "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
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            "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
            "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
            "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
            "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
            "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
            "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
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            "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
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            "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
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    },
    "diagnostics": {
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        "away": {
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        "recent_quality_blend": {
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        "margin_adjustment": 0.3147,
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        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
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        "adjusted_score": {
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      "score_distribution": {
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      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
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      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.179140173640945,
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      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260923_STL@PIT

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickPIT

Published scoreSTL 5 - 6 PIT

Final confidence55.6%

Calibrationraw 60.9% → blended 58.2%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.5% · weight 50.0% · n=384

H2H base featurehome net 8.0 · absolute 8.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.3673

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.141426641558341-5.5110472094073595	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-6	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-6	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-6	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-6	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-6	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-6	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "PIT",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "confidence": 0.112026,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.556013,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.556013,
    "away_win_probability": 0.443987
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.112026,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "PIT wins 6-5",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 6
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "predicted_score_text": "STL 5 - 6 PIT",
    "confidence": 0.556012535,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.609038,
    "sample_size": 384,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5547,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.581869,
    "published_confidence": 0.556013,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 8.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 8.0,
    "home_average_margin": 1.6,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0462,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0462,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.3949,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.316,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.3673
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.01585531359069926
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.015715820094941352
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.015404604211684917
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.015269076012891332
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.014811327499162053
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.03486361185809645,
      "1": 0.053168880793756555,
      "2": 0.07439060205371252,
      "3": 0.09548915340317532,
      "4": 0.11245154501653518,
      "5": 0.12149327102693602,
      "6": 0.12042438513012527,
      "7": 0.10950956769530812,
      "8": 0.0913618964513354,
      "9": 0.06992839520111842,
      "10": 0.04910406339820172,
      "11": 0.03163418982578852,
      "12": 0.01869697792497435,
      "13": 0.010138215737129601,
      "14": 0.0050434422965586895,
      "15": 0.002301802187247726
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04284989154184672,
      "1": 0.06499719116362646,
      "2": 0.08948171694364919,
      "3": 0.11180697187356108,
      "4": 0.12679388810158543,
      "5": 0.1305036357707746,
      "6": 0.12191068175189936,
      "7": 0.10336077717769068,
      "8": 0.07953616188005158,
      "9": 0.05554799025282356,
      "10": 0.03521007327554795,
      "11": 0.020256311385676972,
      "12": 0.01057666277148229,
      "13": 0.005012239419394082,
      "14": 0.0021558066903901722
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "STL 5 - 6 PIT",
      "winner": "PIT"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "STL 5 - 6 PIT",
      "winner": "PIT"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0436,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.526,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "winner": "PIT",
      "model_winner": "PIT",
      "simulation_winner": "PIT",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 3,
        "published_winner": "PIT",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667,
        "draw_majority_team": "PIT",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
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        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
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      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
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      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
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      "simulation_score": {
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    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
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        "margin_adjustment": 0.0,
        "reason": "season quality edge below action threshold"
      },
      "score_distribution": {
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        "home_distribution": {
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        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
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    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
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  "score_evolution": [
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      "home_runs": 5.5110472094073595,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260923_TB@NYY

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickTB

Published scoreTB 5 - 4 NYY

Final confidence50.5%

Calibrationraw 51.0% → blended 52.6%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.3% · weight 50.0% · n=505

H2H base featurehome net 0.0 · absolute 0.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.0639

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.881671033367293-5.271093600949147	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "TB",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": -0.010518,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.505259,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.494741,
    "away_win_probability": 0.505259
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.010518,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "TB wins 5-4 (Extra Innings - 11)",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "TB 5 - 4 NYY",
    "confidence": 0.5052590775,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5101,
    "sample_size": 505,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5426,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.52635,
    "published_confidence": 0.505259,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 0.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 0.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 8.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.2484,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.644,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.0639
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  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
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        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.023350462165734328
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02324541438796207
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      {
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        "probability": 0.022952660424827714
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      {
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        "probability": 0.022849402255697013
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      {
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        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.020901454354002477
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    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06848837275473106,
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      "2": 0.13344538976026088,
      "3": 0.1529029388323182,
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      "5": 0.1352627270480128,
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      "11": 0.003978939870684889,
      "12": 0.0013947391890745593
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    "away_distribution": {
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      "6": 0.10717712086264287,
      "7": 0.07427116964598823,
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      "11": 0.004762979709081116,
      "12": 0.0017405631641702823
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    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
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  "simulation_reconciliation": {
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      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "TB 5 - 4 NYY",
      "winner": "TB"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "TB 5 - 4 NYY",
      "winner": "TB"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0041,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.714,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
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      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "TB",
      "model_winner": "TB",
      "simulation_winner": "TB",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 6,
        "published_winner": "TB",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667,
        "draw_majority_team": "TB",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
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        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
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        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
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      "winner": "TB",
      "score_reviewed": {
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        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "TB",
    "display_confidence": 0.5053,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5766,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5053,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.0639,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.644,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0041,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.6667,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.1667,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.6667,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 3,
        "median": 6,
        "max": 13,
        "range": 10
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
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    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
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        "risk_tier": "low",
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    "evaluation_modes": [
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    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
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      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-23T23:05:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "away",
      "home_win_probability": 0.492721,
      "confidence": 0.507279,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "total_runs": 7
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        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
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            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
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    },
    "candidate_prediction": {
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        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
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        "away": {
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    {
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      "home_runs": 4,
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    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260923_TOR@BAL

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickBAL

Published scoreTOR 4 - 5 BAL

Final confidence50.5%

Calibrationraw 46.0% → blended 50.3%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.6% · weight 50.0% · n=531

H2H base featurehome net -9.0 · absolute 9.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.077

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.5395742796774305-4.497874391086703	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "BAL",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.01,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.505,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.505,
    "away_win_probability": 0.495
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.01,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "BAL wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "TOR 4 - 5 BAL",
    "confidence": 0.505,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.4601,
    "sample_size": 531,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5461,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.5031,
    "published_confidence": 0.505,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -9.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 9.0,
    "home_average_margin": -1.8,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0519,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0519,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -7.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.0732,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.084,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.077
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.019451104604635196
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.019066265036462554
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.01884807216281558
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.01847516357487368
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.0179760338396466
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.050945885066459085,
      "1": 0.0768595950439625,
      "2": 0.1041046590966101,
      "3": 0.12659755983324278,
      "4": 0.13821767939618812,
      "5": 0.135483046421155,
      "6": 0.11923105967555545,
      "7": 0.09420564949050461,
      "8": 0.06682632621699716,
      "9": 0.042559970540728104,
      "10": 0.024335380713494097,
      "11": 0.012492750461067565,
      "12": 0.005757859713546341,
      "13": 0.002382578330489157
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05294351196692946,
      "1": 0.07977123522102063,
      "2": 0.10763466448875478,
      "3": 0.13005596619894025,
      "4": 0.14072805077909328,
      "5": 0.13636513248633944,
      "6": 0.1183309303910143,
      "7": 0.0919529133735811,
      "8": 0.06398894974873111,
      "9": 0.039876473534194136,
      "10": 0.02225362580395864,
      "11": 0.011121339319321601,
      "12": 0.004977206688121319
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "TOR 4 - 5 BAL",
      "winner": "BAL"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "TOR 4 - 5 BAL",
      "winner": "BAL"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0793,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.014,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
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    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
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      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "BAL",
      "model_winner": "BAL",
      "simulation_winner": "BAL",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
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        "draw_count": 6,
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        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.8333,
        "draw_majority_team": "BAL",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
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      "simulation_score": {
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        "home_runs": 5
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    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
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      "score_reviewed": {
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        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
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    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
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    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
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        "median": 6,
        "max": 13,
        "range": 10
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          "games": 157,
          "wins": 77,
          "losses": 80,
          "win_pct": 0.49044585987261147,
          "runs_scored": 632,
          "runs_allowed": 675,
          "run_differential": -43,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.27388535031847133,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 0.0828,
        "win_pct_edge": -0.0064,
        "quality_edge": 0.077,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.0732,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": 0.0732,
          "recent_quality_edge": 0.084,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": 0.077
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 0.0,
        "reason": "season quality edge below action threshold"
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 4,
            "probability": 0.02023156411672601
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          {
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          {
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        ],
        "home_distribution": {
          "0": 0.049543902247814596,
          "1": 0.07625895472424525,
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        "away_distribution": {
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        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 2.05,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
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      "away_runs": 4.5395742796774305,
      "home_runs": 4.497874391086703,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260923_TOR@BAL_2

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickTOR

Published scoreTOR 6 - 5 BAL

Final confidence51.2%

Calibrationraw 51.5% → blended 53.5%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.5% · weight 50.0% · n=740

H2H base featurehome net -9.0 · absolute 9.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.077

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.78850051581124-3.8478164913641026	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	6-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	6-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	6-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	6-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	6-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "TOR",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": -0.02333,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.511665,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.488335,
    "away_win_probability": 0.511665
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.02333,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "TOR wins 6-5",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "TOR 6 - 5 BAL",
    "confidence": 0.511664618,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.515065,
    "sample_size": 740,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5554,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.535232,
    "published_confidence": 0.511665,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -9.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 9.0,
    "home_average_margin": -1.8,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0519,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0519,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -7.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.0732,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.084,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.077
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.01712710263304328
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.016764625046188347
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      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.01661090228200115
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.016259349546919943
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.01603392110210549
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04407508619826547,
      "1": 0.06680033999343513,
      "2": 0.09173610862756851,
      "3": 0.11415057222076923,
      "4": 0.12870398983776352,
      "5": 0.1314867727229436,
      "6": 0.12171616489984356,
      "7": 0.10209173679317542,
      "8": 0.07759059149442966,
      "9": 0.0534322757072449,
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      "11": 0.018850431837767502,
      "12": 0.009657046605464993,
      "13": 0.004482739368208216,
      "14": 0.0018854663647613638
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    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.042559851316804925,
      "1": 0.0645699006407122,
      "2": 0.0889457700448673,
      "3": 0.11124631801565349,
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      "5": 0.13025722875662846,
      "6": 0.12194322493480497,
      "7": 0.10365223798260416,
      "8": 0.07999537081836573,
      "9": 0.056055237056008775,
      "10": 0.03566421722309362,
      "11": 0.020602236313539794,
      "12": 0.010805906304404027,
      "13": 0.0051460404538842585,
      "14": 0.0022251042310493176
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "TOR 6 - 5 BAL",
      "winner": "TOR"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "TOR 6 - 5 BAL",
      "winner": "TOR"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.1181,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.014,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "TOR",
      "model_winner": "TOR",
      "simulation_winner": "TOR",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 6,
        "published_winner": "TOR",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.3333,
        "draw_majority_team": "BAL",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.077,
      "winner": "TOR",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "TOR",
    "display_confidence": 0.5117,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.505,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5117,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.077,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.084,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.1181,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.3333,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.1667,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.3333,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 4,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 11,
        "range": 7
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
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    "adaptive_configuration": {
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      "parameters": {
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        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
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        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
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        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
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        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
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        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
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        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
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        "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
        "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
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        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
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  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
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    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
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        "risk_tier": "low",
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    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
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    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-23T21:36:42.698322+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-23T22:35:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "away",
      "home_win_probability": 0.479819,
      "confidence": 0.520181,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 6,
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      "pipeline_provenance": {
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        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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          "parameters": {
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      }
    },
    "candidate_prediction": {
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        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
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        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
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      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
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      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.78850051581124,
      "home_runs": 3.8478164913641026,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260923_WAS@DET

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickWAS

Published scoreWAS 6 - 4 DET

Final confidence50.5%

Calibrationraw 54.4% → blended 54.3%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.3% · weight 50.0% · n=505

H2H base featurehome net 5.0 · absolute 5.0 · n=2

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.2169

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.043902576364532-4.639880279334525	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, starter_quality_favours_the_other_side, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	6-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	6-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	6-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	6-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "WAS",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": -0.01,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.505,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.495,
    "away_win_probability": 0.505
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.01,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "WAS wins 6-4 (Extra Innings - 13)",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "WAS 6 - 4 DET",
    "confidence": 0.505,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.54431,
    "sample_size": 505,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5426,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.543455,
    "published_confidence": 0.505,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 2,
    "sample_weight": 0.03,
    "home_net_margin": 5.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 5.0,
    "home_average_margin": 2.5,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0375,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0375,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 7.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.4177,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.156,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.2169
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.019852304505044095
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.019330547809896167
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.01910318619418431
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.01860111776716917
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.018446563876759903
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    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.0540805971589865,
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      "3": 0.13192625248681647,
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      "10": 0.02103717639968044,
      "11": 0.010343771675466538,
      "12": 0.0045474699215503536
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05215118832138507,
      "1": 0.0786198637172909,
      "2": 0.10625311071717437,
      "3": 0.12873371707986841,
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      "6": 0.11884803631185431,
      "7": 0.09300532656249162,
      "8": 0.06524765722020019,
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      "10": 0.02313678390960834,
      "11": 0.011694561922003644,
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    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
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    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
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      "score_text": "WAS 6 - 4 DET",
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    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
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    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
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      "thresholds": {
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    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
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      "simulation_winner": "WAS",
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      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
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        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
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      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
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      "simulation_score": {
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        "available": true,
        "sample_size": 2,
        "sample_weight": 0.03,
        "home_net_margin": 5.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 5.0,
        "home_average_margin": 2.5,
        "home_run_delta": 0.0375,
        "away_run_delta": -0.0375,
        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": -2.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 7.0
          }
        ],
        "adaptive_parameters": {
          "h2h.history_limit": 5,
          "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
          "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
          "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
        }
      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
        "applied": false,
        "home": {
          "team": "DET",
          "games": 158,
          "wins": 74,
          "losses": 84,
          "win_pct": 0.46835443037974683,
          "runs_scored": 707,
          "runs_allowed": 634,
          "run_differential": 73,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.4620253164556962,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "WAS",
          "games": 158,
          "wins": 74,
          "losses": 84,
          "win_pct": 0.46835443037974683,
          "runs_scored": 803,
          "runs_allowed": 796,
          "run_differential": 7,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.04430379746835443,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 0.4177,
        "win_pct_edge": 0.0,
        "quality_edge": 0.2169,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.4177,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": 0.4177,
          "recent_quality_edge": -0.156,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "conflict",
          "blended_quality_edge": 0.2169
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 0.0,
        "reason": "season quality edge below action threshold"
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 4,
            "probability": 0.020603166442072985
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 5,
            "probability": 0.020035628581111926
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 5,
            "away_runs": 4,
            "probability": 0.019788549780978004
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 5,
            "away_runs": 5,
            "probability": 0.019243451470687026
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 3,
            "away_runs": 4,
            "probability": 0.019075795041044983
          }
        ],
        "home_distribution": {
          "0": 0.05256333601085606,
          "1": 0.08073246705404866,
          "2": 0.11026614735633669,
          "3": 0.1339259855295104,
          "4": 0.14464924606529034,
          "5": 0.13893004333055975,
          "6": 0.11866013587026651,
          "7": 0.09012435814396798,
          "8": 0.060870686748354025,
          "9": 0.03655972258515491,
          "10": 0.019526583149521808,
          "11": 0.009274239177113562,
          "12": 0.0039170489790192305
        },
        "away_distribution": {
          "0": 0.05062955270092022,
          "1": 0.07786964095588711,
          "2": 0.10679685997643926,
          "3": 0.13060957770843404,
          "4": 0.14243535312153188,
          "5": 0.13851180788089584,
          "6": 0.12011079149655775,
          "7": 0.09287599720448513,
          "8": 0.06403997896404684,
          "9": 0.03937541111580609,
          "10": 0.021588638382276273,
          "11": 0.010554839464015782,
          "12": 0.004601551028703742
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 2.05,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.043902576364532,
      "home_runs": 4.639880279334525,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, starter_quality_favours_the_other_side, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

Every reviewed game

Date	Game	Pick	Final confidence	Raw confidence	Empirical hit rate	Empirical weight	Pred A-H	Actual A-H	Result	Largest recorded movement	Pipeline	Roadmap signals
20260923	20260923_ARI@COL	ARI	56.0%	72.2%	57.2%	50.0%	8.0-6.0	5-3	hit	Enhanced Prediction (2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.722452, "sample_size": 404, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5718, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.647126, "published_confidence": 0.56, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -19.0, "absolute_net_margin": 19.0, "home_average_margin": -3.8, "home_run_delta": -0.1096, "away_run_delta": 0.1096, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -5.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": -9.0 }, { "home_margin": -8.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -1.4331, "recent_quality_edge": -0.692, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -1.1737 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 8, "probability": 0.011876227288395186 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.01181141618102686 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 8, "probability": 0.011669517029546652 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.011605833984184471 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 9, "probability": 0.011231529654019846 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.03133078058064224, "1": 0.047895916008792484, "2": 0.06749714789133111, "3": 0.08768635762751262, "4": 0.10501184984535128, "5": 0.11593224804297034, "6": 0.11798583645979839, "7": 0.11069172724362424, "8": 0.0957326592215859, "9": 0.07632463765434222, "10": 0.056095632556326505, "11": 0.03800607474519219, "12": 0.0237375917623808, "13": 0.013667213070291367, "14": 0.007254090067968854, "15": 0.00354932356115918, "16": 0.0016009136607305395 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.01732148090983171, "1": 0.0267469578074641, "2": 0.03884611978513611, "3": 0.0530645855626612, "4": 0.06817824029166457, "5": 0.08238927439435863, "6": 0.09364389032151396, "7": 0.10010876335187396, "8": 0.10065807595848, "9": 0.09519388081676051, "10": 0.084674632243266, "11": 0.07084047837104991, "12": 0.055743409782368136, "13": 0.041256222003809594, "14": 0.028718996415014884, "15": 0.018803250973204073, "16": 0.011579251994234223, "17": 0.0067067473655147425, "18": 0.00365365274803657, "19": 0.0018720889037568476 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 8, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "ARI 8 - 6 COL", "winner": "ARI" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 8, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "ARI 8 - 6 COL", "winner": "ARI" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": true, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0699, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.762, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 8, "home_runs": 6, "winner": "ARI", "model_winner": "ARI", "simulation_winner": "ARI", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 5, "published_winner": "ARI", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.8, "draw_majority_team": "ARI", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": true, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 8, "home_runs": 6 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 8, "home_runs": 6 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": 1.1737, "winner": "ARI", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 8, "home_runs": 6, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260923	20260923_CHW@KC	CHW	56.0%	76.5%	57.1%	50.0%	7.0-5.0	4-5	miss	Enhanced Prediction (-1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.764902, "sample_size": 126, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5714, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.668151, "published_confidence": 0.56, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -28.0, "absolute_net_margin": 28.0, "home_average_margin": -5.6, "home_run_delta": -0.1615, "away_run_delta": 0.1615, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -21.0 }, { "home_margin": -4.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -1.0892, "recent_quality_edge": -0.808, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.9908 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.014623176521049525 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.014541144216070228 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.014424947272671566 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.014344026983411657 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.013678310791373428 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.045350592442246505, "1": 0.06867439606633506, "2": 0.09406664049656167, "3": 0.11654813274634858, "4": 0.1306182638967934, "5": 0.13241323477517913, "6": 0.12141931668994559, "7": 0.10071011102584146, "8": 0.07555918521019622, "9": 0.05127791503994807, "10": 0.031477653605286836, "11": 0.017478463275965073, "12": 0.008778757286678622, "13": 0.003988335998930155, "14": 0.0016390014437435974 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.02496139514822111, "1": 0.038330112224489093, "2": 0.05474682405637539, "3": 0.0727319737847022, "4": 0.08987510707924219, "5": 0.10330017852518643, "6": 0.11043591334263393, "7": 0.10981639592718391, "8": 0.10157144935809512, "9": 0.08738234930386402, "10": 0.06992353688302537, "11": 0.0520439993459087, "12": 0.036030106156880744, "13": 0.023201070546832396, "14": 0.013896265769510351, "15": 0.007741690453538015, "16": 0.004011632094310968 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "CHW 7 - 5 KC", "winner": "CHW" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "CHW 7 - 5 KC", "winner": "CHW" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": true, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.039, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -1.018, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "CHW", "model_winner": "CHW", "simulation_winner": "CHW", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "CHW", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667, "draw_majority_team": "CHW", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": true, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": 0.9908, "winner": "CHW", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260923	20260923_CIN@ATL	ATL	56.0%	75.9%	55.4%	50.0%	5.0-6.0	2-3	hit	Enhanced Prediction (-2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.75887, "sample_size": 121, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5537, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.656285, "published_confidence": 0.56, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 4, "sample_weight": 0.05, "home_net_margin": 2.0, "absolute_net_margin": 2.0, "home_average_margin": 0.5, "home_run_delta": 0.0125, "away_run_delta": -0.0125, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -4.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": 3.0 }, { "home_margin": 5.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 1.9331, "recent_quality_edge": 0.54, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 1.4455 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.014215125159353467 }, { "home_runs": 7, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.014166902609712172 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.0136843743479561 }, { "home_runs": 7, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.013637952285968825 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.013429520238450196 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.02472316477656004, "1": 0.037970796844360055, "2": 0.05426149908013398, "3": 0.07214899620474399, "4": 0.08926171512859812, "5": 0.10275349208436824, "6": 0.11005870085582817, "7": 0.10968534422998204, "8": 0.10171131092392653, "9": 0.0877579217489532, "10": 0.07045305611915645, "11": 0.05262714039105129, "12": 0.036577678362493676, "13": 0.02365478090534481, "14": 0.014233711266652916, "15": 0.007969183049951705, "16": 0.004151508027894962 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.04133693599231088, "1": 0.0627664765832162, "2": 0.08667648405047348, "3": 0.10885763404287177, "4": 0.12433705142387608, "5": 0.12915948533659893, "6": 0.12202143159987186, "7": 0.10484071995972806, "8": 0.0819233950309519, "9": 0.058219699231453745, "10": 0.037628425093683034, "11": 0.022118017346524823, "12": 0.011823890946036423, "13": 0.005748555188812926, "14": 0.00254179817358978 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "CIN 5 - 6 ATL", "winner": "ATL" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "CIN 5 - 6 ATL", "winner": "ATL" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0723, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.54, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "winner": "ATL", "model_winner": "ATL", "simulation_winner": "ATL", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 5, "published_winner": "ATL", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.4, "draw_majority_team": "CIN", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 1.4455, "winner": "ATL", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260923	20260923_CLE@BOS	CLE	50.5%	55.6%	54.3%	50.0%	5.0-4.0	0-1	miss	Enhanced Prediction (2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.556082, "sample_size": 505, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5426, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.549341, "published_confidence": 0.505259, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 4, "sample_weight": 0.05, "home_net_margin": 11.0, "absolute_net_margin": 11.0, "home_average_margin": 2.75, "home_run_delta": 0.0687, "away_run_delta": -0.0687, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": 5.0 }, { "home_margin": 8.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.5032, "recent_quality_edge": -0.768, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.0583 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.01863432237596184 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.018517030991005178 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.018316966586225936 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01820167275714231 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.017030505865193023 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.050484642274007493, "1": 0.07618748945279427, "2": 0.10329086982192219, "3": 0.1258038982757299, "4": 0.13765124859936692, "5": 0.135306949739123, "6": 0.11948515316183642, "7": 0.09478981545486732, "8": 0.06755590295280613, "9": 0.04325325750701611, "10": 0.02487873136497316, "11": 0.012855575784166556, "12": 0.005967723972350543, "13": 0.0024887416390399634 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.04869959809874009, "1": 0.07358240133095455, "2": 0.1001209193138949, "3": 0.12268119365350502, "4": 0.1353734351527527, "5": 0.1345213441899018, "6": 0.12037914086599143, "7": 0.0970093451577408, "8": 0.07040089799310074, "9": 0.04600924608588262, "10": 0.02707785930569593, "11": 0.014351121130309, "12": 0.0068495119102241955, "13": 0.0029439858113061656 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "CLE 5 - 4 BOS", "winner": "CLE" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "CLE 5 - 4 BOS", "winner": "CLE" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": true, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0603, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.768, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "CLE", "model_winner": "CLE", "simulation_winner": "CLE", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "CLE", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.3333, "draw_majority_team": "BOS", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": true, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": -0.0583, "winner": "CLE", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260923	20260923_HOU@SEA	SEA	51.5%	54.4%	55.2%	50.0%	4.0-5.0	5-6	hit	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.543922, "sample_size": 777, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5521, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.548011, "published_confidence": 0.515298, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 1.0, "absolute_net_margin": 1.0, "home_average_margin": 0.2, "home_run_delta": 0.0058, "away_run_delta": -0.0058, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -7.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": 5.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": 5.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.1178, "recent_quality_edge": 0.456, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.083 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.0210384582645494 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.020000968130966065 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.019934624309460386 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.019742111532827122 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.0197336691337355 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.05605565356775576, "1": 0.08428152267928186, "2": 0.1129994590778465, "3": 0.13509876981990634, "4": 0.14403149313926072, "5": 0.1369287268063752, "6": 0.11608142095396409, "7": 0.08775298532001992, "8": 0.05915509044801325, "9": 0.035559314822503754, "10": 0.019061000122020107, "11": 0.009111062434835511, "12": 0.0038835008082169806 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.05818031056104009, "1": 0.08734949248768645, "2": 0.11660537548076987, "3": 0.13840462162109268, "4": 0.14606845909878752, "5": 0.1370680196569158, "6": 0.11436408598801057, "7": 0.08484319671481694, "8": 0.05596522039765284, "9": 0.0328241318307207, "10": 0.0171175700137053, "11": 0.007937154103542786, "12": 0.003272362045258534 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "HOU 4 - 5 SEA", "winner": "SEA" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "HOU 4 - 5 SEA", "winner": "SEA" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0002, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.526, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "SEA", "model_winner": "SEA", "simulation_winner": "SEA", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 5, "published_winner": "SEA", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.4, "draw_majority_team": "HOU", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.083, "winner": "SEA", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260923	20260923_LAA@OAK	LAA	54.0%	70.1%	55.4%	50.0%	5.0-4.0	3-7	miss	Variance Applied (-0.1612)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.700811, "sample_size": 680, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5544, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.627606, "published_confidence": 0.54, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 0.0, "absolute_net_margin": 0.0, "home_average_margin": 0.0, "home_run_delta": 0.0, "away_run_delta": -0.0, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": 6.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.8217, "recent_quality_edge": -0.328, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.6489 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01700572833385477 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.016841805982570388 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.016561786406643044 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.016402143319563852 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.015751074137893332 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.05212164669980816, "1": 0.07857691091128938, "2": 0.10620147645415404, "3": 0.1286841141897606, "4": 0.13979064219035972, "5": 0.13614134673639158, "6": 0.11886685291004387, "7": 0.09304440575305854, "8": 0.06529479282353559, "9": 0.04107954358336498, "10": 0.02317028901159757, "11": 0.011716450767195345, "12": 0.005311527969440456 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.034976427456724205, "1": 0.05333681302932599, "2": 0.07460828177228174, "3": 0.0957316129171943, "4": 0.11267616981431654, "5": 0.12165140718573454, "6": 0.12047877968566795, "7": 0.10944913780763439, "8": 0.09120580718099769, "9": 0.06971737063742828, "10": 0.04888412765137967, "11": 0.03144148872173178, "12": 0.018550118775642045, "13": 0.01003918945129335, "14": 0.004983781193459592, "15": 0.002269486719187929 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "LAA 5 - 4 OAK", "winner": "LAA" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "LAA 5 - 4 OAK", "winner": "LAA" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0587, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.398, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "LAA", "model_winner": "LAA", "simulation_winner": "LAA", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "LAA", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "LAA", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.6489, "winner": "LAA", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260923	20260923_MIA@CHC	CHC	53.0%	59.8%	56.8%	50.0%	5.0-6.0	3-2	miss	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.597738, "sample_size": 644, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5683, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.583019, "published_confidence": 0.53, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 4, "sample_weight": 0.05, "home_net_margin": -7.0, "absolute_net_margin": 7.0, "home_average_margin": -1.75, "home_run_delta": -0.0437, "away_run_delta": 0.0437, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -6.0 }, { "home_margin": -7.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": 5.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 1.0064, "recent_quality_edge": 0.408, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.7969 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.015668183138782633 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.015544453927007127 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.015363394245918061 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.015242071904750206 }, { "home_runs": 7, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.014533192735074857 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.0326023035717915, "1": 0.04979610026902181, "2": 0.06999090405615524, "3": 0.09052886977746012, "4": 0.10775360733418086, "5": 0.11802547657464203, "6": 0.11896492412645582, "7": 0.11034720208010487, "8": 0.09418959823303898, "9": 0.07398501865889356, "10": 0.05347907114887499, "11": 0.03557321754352229, "12": 0.02177517558020875, "13": 0.012265899656648758, "14": 0.006358232055052323, "15": 0.003033001084392283, "16": 0.0013313982495555309 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.04436270415749494, "1": 0.0672232067198889, "2": 0.09226309148028643, "3": 0.11469496198033596, "4": 0.12914221867268436, "5": 0.13170422503802776, "6": 0.12165745679743709, "7": 0.10178536116974628, "8": 0.0771328667592364, "9": 0.052942102686734514, "10": 0.03291322673397276, "11": 0.018533067154541307, "12": 0.00945217382238143, "13": 0.004366401444990439, "14": 0.001826935382241521 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "MIA 5 - 6 CHC", "winner": "CHC" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "MIA 5 - 6 CHC", "winner": "CHC" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0127, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.408, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "winner": "CHC", "model_winner": "CHC", "simulation_winner": "CHC", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "CHC", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667, "draw_majority_team": "CHC", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.7969, "winner": "CHC", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260923	20260923_MIL@PHI	MIL	56.0%	74.2%	56.6%	50.0%	5.0-3.0	4-1	hit	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.741824, "sample_size": 348, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5661, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.653962, "published_confidence": 0.56, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 4, "sample_weight": 0.05, "home_net_margin": -7.0, "absolute_net_margin": 7.0, "home_average_margin": -1.75, "home_run_delta": -0.0437, "away_run_delta": 0.0437, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": -4.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": -6.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -1.1815, "recent_quality_edge": -0.688, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -1.0088 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.02145358825107652 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.02064210926409364 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02034577794555124 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.020086384393521884 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.019688546431610228 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.08304722532396437, "1": 0.12256891200127605, "2": 0.15543580853282224, "3": 0.16937034165114898, "4": 0.15857663284352433, "5": 0.12757235178101256, "6": 0.0881839347341189, "7": 0.05237667508691204, "8": 0.026730182237462645, "9": 0.011721453124321244, "10": 0.004416482683436474 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.03888832867370493, "1": 0.0591467597186417, "2": 0.08208638431603393, "3": 0.10395366043100167, "4": 0.12012597806207011, "5": 0.126666735403205, "6": 0.12187558378201813, "7": 0.10700383202138852, "8": 0.08572558222349763, "9": 0.06266860773972506, "10": 0.0418040289649883, "11": 0.0254457188342285, "12": 0.014133177023966388, "13": 0.007162973820508568, "14": 0.0033126489850216936 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "MIL 5 - 3 PHI", "winner": "MIL" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "MIL 5 - 3 PHI", "winner": "MIL" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0509, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.688, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 3, "winner": "MIL", "model_winner": "MIL", "simulation_winner": "MIL", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "MIL", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5, "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 3 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 3 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": 1.0088, "winner": "MIL", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 3, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260923	20260923_MIN@SF	MIN	51.1%	51.0%	55.6%	50.0%	4.0-3.0	4-2	hit	Variance Applied (0.1512)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.5101, "sample_size": 741, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.556, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.53305, "published_confidence": 0.51111, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 2, "sample_weight": 0.03, "home_net_margin": 2.0, "absolute_net_margin": 2.0, "home_average_margin": 1.0, "home_run_delta": 0.015, "away_run_delta": -0.015, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": 3.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.1867, "recent_quality_edge": -0.044, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.1368 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.024779349333811658 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02464307302066722 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.024300204102501964 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.024166562892672952 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.0220005466693493 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.0735216232147596, "1": 0.10923059989802197, "2": 0.14129836866294768, "3": 0.15914521079945704, "4": 0.15606790365094822, "5": 0.13325920465849725, "6": 0.09907051805521087, "7": 0.0641291152264223, "8": 0.036143454522152646, "9": 0.017736489551965058, "10": 0.0075782560099684785, "11": 0.0028192557496488817 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.07064710013239983, "1": 0.10517023623324237, "2": 0.13686534955582513, "3": 0.15570276484811568, "4": 0.15484646315697548, "5": 0.1346196347040016, "6": 0.10230990406616511, "7": 0.06797185138240973, "8": 0.03947686649770555, "9": 0.020042800274923056, "10": 0.00889562110728968, "11": 0.0034514080409467434 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "MIN 4 - 3 SF", "winner": "MIN" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "MIN 4 - 3 SF", "winner": "MIN" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0726, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.044, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "winner": "MIN", "model_winner": "MIN", "simulation_winner": "MIN", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "MIN", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5, "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.1368, "winner": "MIN", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260923	20260923_NYM@TEX	NYM	59.5%	64.5%	55.6%	50.0%	6.0-3.0	7-2	hit	Embedded Savant Run Environment (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.645009, "sample_size": 284, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5563, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.600654, "published_confidence": 0.595426, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 1, "sample_weight": 0.0167, "home_net_margin": -3.0, "absolute_net_margin": 3.0, "home_average_margin": -3.0, "home_run_delta": -0.025, "away_run_delta": 0.025, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -3.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.0637, "recent_quality_edge": 0.212, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.1156 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.022061916677217967 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02174309226816475 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.02093485332133187 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02063231649570412 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.020252643884580816 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.08036200462141224, "1": 0.11883328088423684, "2": 0.15156719010750486, "3": 0.16674472210778588, "4": 0.158226338649781, "5": 0.12950461538249852, "6": 0.09142637478358391, "7": 0.05567209161092535, "8": 0.029240403552588626, "9": 0.013246738755311512, "10": 0.005176239544371366 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.04520089543114842, "1": 0.06845461767941634, "2": 0.09379399089234979, "3": 0.11626897300150132, "4": 0.13039748421008338, "5": 0.1323095351885073, "6": 0.12145898010186645, "7": 0.10087526098314885, "8": 0.07579774190256786, "9": 0.051528134429713685, "10": 0.03169196193792283, "11": 0.01763479385327103, "12": 0.00887785819585524, "13": 0.004043547745333625, "14": 0.0016662244473139524 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "NYM 6 - 3 TEX", "winner": "NYM" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "NYM 6 - 3 TEX", "winner": "NYM" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.072, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.138, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 3, "winner": "NYM", "model_winner": "NYM", "simulation_winner": "NYM", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "NYM", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667, "draw_majority_team": "NYM", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 3, "simulation_margin": 3, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 3 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 3 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 3, "final_margin": 3, "winner_quality_edge": -0.1156, "winner": "NYM", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 3, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260923	20260923_SD@LAD	LAD	53.5%	56.6%	55.3%	50.0%	5.0-7.0	5-1	miss	Embedded Savant Run Environment (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.566172, "sample_size": 680, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5529, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.559536, "published_confidence": 0.535156, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 13.0, "absolute_net_margin": 13.0, "home_average_margin": 2.6, "home_run_delta": 0.075, "away_run_delta": -0.075, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 7.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": 3.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": 5.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 1.1529, "recent_quality_edge": -0.0, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.7494 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.016109771224927807 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.015664133157284092 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.015474327082196685 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.015260282256441007 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.015147134492184666 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.0374884431660508, "1": 0.05707210481478138, "2": 0.0794343737029583, "3": 0.10107672541485675, "4": 0.11758500807456473, "5": 0.12505781740697525, "6": 0.12159839372461102, "7": 0.1080943347684245, "8": 0.08784885997834903, "9": 0.065272076425863, "10": 0.04433807452737686, "11": 0.027534952476931468, "12": 0.015633273839737956, "13": 0.008114721906561586, "14": 0.0038508397719572737 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.040977593693553624, "1": 0.06223600138096241, "2": 0.08600674352849245, "3": 0.1081481063773104, "4": 0.12373738326040533, "5": 0.1288185861464528, "6": 0.1220258163212582, "7": 0.1051769342933106, "8": 0.08248688182495145, "9": 0.05886333420666202, "10": 0.03822085716647758, "11": 0.022581437222279784, "12": 0.012139430957590304, "13": 0.005938006544652325, "14": 0.002642887075640754 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 7, "score_text": "SD 5 - 7 LAD", "winner": "LAD" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 7, "score_text": "SD 5 - 7 LAD", "winner": "LAD" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.042, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.21, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 7, "winner": "LAD", "model_winner": "LAD", "simulation_winner": "LAD", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 5, "published_winner": "LAD", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6, "draw_majority_team": "LAD", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 7 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 7 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": 0.7494, "winner": "LAD", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 7, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260923	20260923_STL@PIT	PIT	55.6%	60.9%	55.5%	50.0%	5.0-6.0	5-1	miss	Enhanced Prediction (-1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.609038, "sample_size": 384, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5547, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.581869, "published_confidence": 0.556013, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 8.0, "absolute_net_margin": 8.0, "home_average_margin": 1.6, "home_run_delta": 0.0462, "away_run_delta": -0.0462, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": 4.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": 4.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.3949, "recent_quality_edge": 0.316, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.3673 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01585531359069926 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.015715820094941352 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.015404604211684917 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.015269076012891332 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.014811327499162053 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.03486361185809645, "1": 0.053168880793756555, "2": 0.07439060205371252, "3": 0.09548915340317532, "4": 0.11245154501653518, "5": 0.12149327102693602, "6": 0.12042438513012527, "7": 0.10950956769530812, "8": 0.0913618964513354, "9": 0.06992839520111842, "10": 0.04910406339820172, "11": 0.03163418982578852, "12": 0.01869697792497435, "13": 0.010138215737129601, "14": 0.0050434422965586895, "15": 0.002301802187247726 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.04284989154184672, "1": 0.06499719116362646, "2": 0.08948171694364919, "3": 0.11180697187356108, "4": 0.12679388810158543, "5": 0.1305036357707746, "6": 0.12191068175189936, "7": 0.10336077717769068, "8": 0.07953616188005158, "9": 0.05554799025282356, "10": 0.03521007327554795, "11": 0.020256311385676972, "12": 0.01057666277148229, "13": 0.005012239419394082, "14": 0.0021558066903901722 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "STL 5 - 6 PIT", "winner": "PIT" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "STL 5 - 6 PIT", "winner": "PIT" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0436, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.526, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "winner": "PIT", "model_winner": "PIT", "simulation_winner": "PIT", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "PIT", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667, "draw_majority_team": "PIT", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.3673, "winner": "PIT", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260923	20260923_TB@NYY	TB	50.5%	51.0%	54.3%	50.0%	5.0-4.0	2-9	miss	Enhanced Prediction (2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.5101, "sample_size": 505, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5426, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.52635, "published_confidence": 0.505259, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 0.0, "absolute_net_margin": 0.0, "home_average_margin": 0.0, "home_run_delta": 0.0, "away_run_delta": -0.0, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -5.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": 8.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.2484, "recent_quality_edge": -0.644, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": -0.0639 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.023350462165734328 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02324541438796207 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.022952660424827714 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.022849402255697013 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.020901454354002477 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.06848837275473106, "1": 0.10210270457043541, "2": 0.13344538976026088, "3": 0.1529029388323182, "4": 0.15359391872500192, "5": 0.1352627270480128, "6": 0.10443069951598334, "7": 0.07068449589295207, "8": 0.04194363572604676, "9": 0.021819958023027358, "10": 0.009951480091470769, "11": 0.003978939870684889, "12": 0.0013947391890745593 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.0658541454416154, "1": 0.09835350466698199, "2": 0.1292454125887666, "3": 0.14943729944101944, "4": 0.1520272570657015, "5": 0.13608256451497225, "6": 0.10717712086264287, "7": 0.07427116964598823, "8": 0.045285275736023665, "9": 0.02429474502482759, "10": 0.011467962138209328, "11": 0.004762979709081116, "12": 0.0017405631641702823 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "TB 5 - 4 NYY", "winner": "TB" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "TB 5 - 4 NYY", "winner": "TB" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0041, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.714, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "TB", "model_winner": "TB", "simulation_winner": "TB", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "TB", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667, "draw_majority_team": "TB", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.0639, "winner": "TB", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260923	20260923_TOR@BAL	BAL	50.5%	46.0%	54.6%	50.0%	4.0-5.0	2-4	hit	Enhanced Prediction (2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.4601, "sample_size": 531, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5461, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.5031, "published_confidence": 0.505, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -9.0, "absolute_net_margin": 9.0, "home_average_margin": -1.8, "home_run_delta": -0.0519, "away_run_delta": 0.0519, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": -7.0 }, { "home_margin": -4.0 }, { "home_margin": 3.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.0732, "recent_quality_edge": 0.084, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.077 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.019451104604635196 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.019066265036462554 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01884807216281558 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01847516357487368 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.0179760338396466 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.050945885066459085, "1": 0.0768595950439625, "2": 0.1041046590966101, "3": 0.12659755983324278, "4": 0.13821767939618812, "5": 0.135483046421155, "6": 0.11923105967555545, "7": 0.09420564949050461, "8": 0.06682632621699716, "9": 0.042559970540728104, "10": 0.024335380713494097, "11": 0.012492750461067565, "12": 0.005757859713546341, "13": 0.002382578330489157 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.05294351196692946, "1": 0.07977123522102063, "2": 0.10763466448875478, "3": 0.13005596619894025, "4": 0.14072805077909328, "5": 0.13636513248633944, "6": 0.1183309303910143, "7": 0.0919529133735811, "8": 0.06398894974873111, "9": 0.039876473534194136, "10": 0.02225362580395864, "11": 0.011121339319321601, "12": 0.004977206688121319 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "TOR 4 - 5 BAL", "winner": "BAL" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "TOR 4 - 5 BAL", "winner": "BAL" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0793, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.014, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "BAL", "model_winner": "BAL", "simulation_winner": "BAL", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "BAL", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.8333, "draw_majority_team": "BAL", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.077, "winner": "BAL", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260923	20260923_TOR@BAL_2	TOR	51.2%	51.5%	55.5%	50.0%	6.0-5.0	2-4	miss	Variance Applied (0.0593)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.515065, "sample_size": 740, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5554, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.535232, "published_confidence": 0.511665, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -9.0, "absolute_net_margin": 9.0, "home_average_margin": -1.8, "home_run_delta": -0.0519, "away_run_delta": 0.0519, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": -7.0 }, { "home_margin": -4.0 }, { "home_margin": 3.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.0732, "recent_quality_edge": 0.084, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.077 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01712710263304328 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.016764625046188347 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.01661090228200115 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.016259349546919943 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.01603392110210549 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.04407508619826547, "1": 0.06680033999343513, "2": 0.09173610862756851, "3": 0.11415057222076923, "4": 0.12870398983776352, "5": 0.1314867727229436, "6": 0.12171616489984356, "7": 0.10209173679317542, "8": 0.07759059149442966, "9": 0.0534322757072449, "10": 0.03334067732835901, "11": 0.018850431837767502, "12": 0.009657046605464993, "13": 0.004482739368208216, "14": 0.0018854663647613638 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.042559851316804925, "1": 0.0645699006407122, "2": 0.0889457700448673, "3": 0.11124631801565349, "4": 0.12633135590757907, "5": 0.13025722875662846, "6": 0.12194322493480497, "7": 0.10365223798260416, "8": 0.07999537081836573, "9": 0.056055237056008775, "10": 0.03566421722309362, "11": 0.020602236313539794, "12": 0.010805906304404027, "13": 0.0051460404538842585, "14": 0.0022251042310493176 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "TOR 6 - 5 BAL", "winner": "TOR" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "TOR 6 - 5 BAL", "winner": "TOR" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.1181, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.014, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "TOR", "model_winner": "TOR", "simulation_winner": "TOR", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "TOR", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.3333, "draw_majority_team": "BAL", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": -0.077, "winner": "TOR", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260923	20260923_WAS@DET	WAS	50.5%	54.4%	54.3%	50.0%	6.0-4.0	4-2	hit	Enhanced Prediction (2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.54431, "sample_size": 505, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5426, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.543455, "published_confidence": 0.505, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 2, "sample_weight": 0.03, "home_net_margin": 5.0, "absolute_net_margin": 5.0, "home_average_margin": 2.5, "home_run_delta": 0.0375, "away_run_delta": -0.0375, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": 7.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.4177, "recent_quality_edge": -0.156, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.2169 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.019852304505044095 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.019330547809896167 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.01910318619418431 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01860111776716917 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.018446563876759903 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.0540805971589865, "1": 0.08142141174855909, "2": 0.10960622260188714, "3": 0.13192625248681647, "4": 0.14197983722471133, "5": 0.13662228813962154, "6": 0.11754816880399356, "7": 0.09042939265880148, "8": 0.06220177713097931, "9": 0.03825563404894637, "10": 0.02103717639968044, "11": 0.010343771675466538, "12": 0.0045474699215503536 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.05215118832138507, "1": 0.0786198637172909, "2": 0.10625311071717437, "3": 0.12873371707986841, "4": 0.13982481522093784, "5": 0.13614995049826498, "6": 0.11884803631185431, "7": 0.09300532656249162, "8": 0.06524765722020019, "9": 0.04103583850566901, "10": 0.02313678390960834, "11": 0.011694561922003644, "12": 0.00529915001325126 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "WAS 6 - 4 DET", "winner": "WAS" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "WAS 6 - 4 DET", "winner": "WAS" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0976, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.156, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "WAS", "model_winner": "WAS", "simulation_winner": "WAS", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 4, "published_winner": "WAS", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.75, "draw_majority_team": "WAS", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": -0.2169, "winner": "WAS", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }

Starting-pitcher component quality

H	{ "mae": 1.7857, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": -0.5714 }
R	{ "mae": 1.6786, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.25 }
ER	{ "mae": 1.75, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.3929 }
BB	{ "mae": 1.7143, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 1.2143 }
SO	{ "mae": 3.2143, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 1.7857 }
HR	{ "mae": 0.7857, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.0714 }
IP_outs	{ "mae_outs": 3.4286, "mae_innings": 1.1429, "bias_outs": 1.7143 }

IP error is measured in outs. No single-outing ERA is used; ER and workload are compared directly.

Date

Game

Side

Pred starter

Actual starter

Match

Pred IP

Actual IP

Δ outs

Pred ER

Actual ER

Δ ER

H P/A

BB P/A

SO P/A

All context

20260923

20260923_ARI@COL

away

Merrill Kelly

True

5.1

-3

9/4

3/1

3/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.997872340425532,
      "WHIP": 1.4744680851063832,
      "IP": 156.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 28,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.595,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.533,
      "last_start_IP": 4.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.9213,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0783,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9486,
      "walk_factor": 1.02,
      "homer_factor": 1.158,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 16.3,
      "bb_percent": 10.1,
      "woba": 0.354,
      "xwoba": 0.38,
      "barrel_percent": 11.4,
      "hard_hit_percent": 42.2,
      "whiff_percent": 21.7
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 367,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 28.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8485,
        "prior_weight": 0.1515
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "518876",
      "report_date": "20260923",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 28,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 27.2,
            "ER": 10.0,
            "R": 11.0,
            "H": 23.0,
            "BB": 12.0,
            "SO": 27.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 118.0,
            "Pitches": 464.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.2,
            "H": 4.6,
            "BB": 2.4,
            "SO": 5.4,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 23.6,
            "Pitches": 92.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.253,
            "WHIP": 1.2651,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.36145,
            "H_per_IP": 0.83133,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.43373,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.9759,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07229
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 53.0,
            "ER": 28.0,
            "R": 30.0,
            "H": 50.0,
            "BB": 28.0,
            "SO": 46.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 232.0,
            "Pitches": 890.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.8,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 2.8,
            "SO": 4.6,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 23.2,
            "Pitches": 89.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.7547,
            "WHIP": 1.4717,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.5283,
            "H_per_IP": 0.9434,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.5283,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.86792,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11321
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 28,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 156.2,
            "ER": 87.0,
            "R": 91.0,
            "H": 162.0,
            "BB": 69.0,
            "SO": 111.0,
            "HR": 28.0,
            "BF": 683.0,
            "Pitches": 2543.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 3.1071,
            "R": 3.25,
            "H": 5.7857,
            "BB": 2.4643,
            "SO": 3.9643,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 24.3929,
            "Pitches": 90.8214
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.9979,
            "WHIP": 1.4745,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.55532,
            "H_per_IP": 1.03404,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.44043,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.70851,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.17872
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.596,
        "predicted_H": 5.131,
        "predicted_BB": 2.529,
        "predicted_SO": 4.97,
        "predicted_HR": 0.635,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.1971,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3759
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.414,
      "form_weight": 0.586,
      "form_reliability": 0.8485,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 28.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8485,
        "prior_weight": 0.1515
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 2.596,
          "final": 3.5913,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 9.0,
          "form": 5.131,
          "final": 6.7328,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.529,
          "final": 2.724,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 4.97,
          "final": 4.1544,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.635,
          "final": 0.7861,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.1971,
          "final": 4.1971,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3759,
          "final": 1.3759,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 53.0,
        "ER": 28,
        "H": 50,
        "BB": 28,
        "SO": 46,
        "HR": 6,
        "ERA": 4.754716981132075,
        "WHIP": 1.471698113207547,
        "K9": 7.811320754716981,
        "HR9": 1.0188679245283019,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 2,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-16T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0354119066472924,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 5.0,
          "predicted_H": 9.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 3.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 28.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8485,
          "prior_weight": 0.1515
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.1,
          "predicted_ER": 5,
          "predicted_H": 9,
          "predicted_BB": 3,
          "predicted_SO": 3,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "518876",
      "player_name": "Merrill Kelly",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "ARI",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
            "predicted_H": 9.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
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            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
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          ],
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
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          {
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        ],
        "summary": {
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            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "ARI",
        "games": 157,
        "wins": 83,
        "losses": 74,
        "win_pct": 0.5287,
        "runs_scored": 700.0,
        "runs_allowed": 696.0,
        "run_differential": 4.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0255,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4586,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4331,
        "offense_index": 0.9946,
        "defense_index": 1.0113,
        "current_streak": "W3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7,
          "run_differential": 5.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0275
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "COL",
        "games": 157,
        "wins": 57,
        "losses": 100,
        "win_pct": 0.3631,
        "runs_scored": 729.0,
        "runs_allowed": 911.0,
        "run_differential": -182.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.1592,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.6433,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.8025,
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        "defense_index": 0.7726,
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        "recent": {
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          "losses": 8,
          "win_pct": 0.2,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.5,
          "run_differential": -24.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.3636
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.3911,
        "offense_edge": -0.0054,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0358,
        "defense_strength": 0.0113,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.2274,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.3
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0146,
        "run_prevention": 0.985,
        "strikeout": 1.0089
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "518876",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "518876",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 629.0,
            "k_percent": 16.3,
            "bb_percent": 10.1,
            "woba": 0.354,
            "xwoba": 0.38,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 38.0,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 11.4,
            "hard_hit_percent": 42.2,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.994,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.6761,
            "whiff_percent": 21.7,
            "swing_percent": 49.0
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.3115,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5964,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8957,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -1.2388,
            "command_and_miss": -0.58,
            "regression_edge": -0.7429,
            "xwoba_edge": -1.9571,
            "barrel_edge": -0.9333,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.6143,
            "whiff_edge": -0.4857,
            "bb_edge": -0.25,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0313
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "518876",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 91,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 91,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.30413110861726,
              "release_spin_rate": 2317.3364498145124,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 91,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.30413110861726,
                "release_spin_rate": 2317.3364498145124,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.3041,
              "release_spin_rate": 2317.3364,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0313,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.2238,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.9213,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0783,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9486,
          "walk_factor": 1.02,
          "homer_factor": 1.158,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.026,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "518876",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0783,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0783,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.02,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.158,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9486,
            "adjusted": 5
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 9,
      "predicted_R": 5,
      "predicted_ER": 5,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 3,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 28,
      "Pitches": 109,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 5",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was -5."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260923_ARI@COL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260923

20260923_ARI@COL

home

Mason Adams

True

4.1

6.0

-5

6/5

4/0

4/8

Last 10 before this game (5 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "ERA": 5.086956521739131,
      "WHIP": 1.6521739130434783,
      "IP": 23.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 5,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.6,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.6,
      "last_start_IP": 4.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.3867,
      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0329,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9864,
      "walk_factor": 1.0252,
      "homer_factor": 1.094,
      "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 22.8,
      "bb_percent": 11.9,
      "woba": 0.406,
      "xwoba": 0.364,
      "barrel_percent": 10.8,
      "hard_hit_percent": 55.4,
      "whiff_percent": 18.9
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 271,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 1.0
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 5.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.5,
        "prior_weight": 0.5
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "690279",
      "report_date": "20260923",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 5,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 23.0,
            "ER": 13.0,
            "R": 13.0,
            "H": 26.0,
            "BB": 12.0,
            "SO": 23.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 101.0,
            "Pitches": 388.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.6,
            "R": 2.6,
            "H": 5.2,
            "BB": 2.4,
            "SO": 4.6,
            "HR": 1.2,
            "BF": 20.2,
            "Pitches": 77.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.087,
            "WHIP": 1.6522,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.56522,
            "H_per_IP": 1.13043,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.52174,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.0,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.26087
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 23.0,
            "ER": 13.0,
            "R": 13.0,
            "H": 26.0,
            "BB": 12.0,
            "SO": 23.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 101.0,
            "Pitches": 388.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.6,
            "R": 2.6,
            "H": 5.2,
            "BB": 2.4,
            "SO": 4.6,
            "HR": 1.2,
            "BF": 20.2,
            "Pitches": 77.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.087,
            "WHIP": 1.6522,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.56522,
            "H_per_IP": 1.13043,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.52174,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.0,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.26087
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 23.0,
            "ER": 13.0,
            "R": 13.0,
            "H": 26.0,
            "BB": 12.0,
            "SO": 23.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 101.0,
            "Pitches": 388.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.6,
            "R": 2.6,
            "H": 5.2,
            "BB": 2.4,
            "SO": 4.6,
            "HR": 1.2,
            "BF": 20.2,
            "Pitches": 77.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.087,
            "WHIP": 1.6522,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.56522,
            "H_per_IP": 1.13043,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.52174,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.0,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.26087
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.508,
        "predicted_H": 4.925,
        "predicted_BB": 2.096,
        "predicted_SO": 4.52,
        "predicted_HR": 0.955,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.8369,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.5046
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.5613,
      "form_weight": 0.4388,
      "form_reliability": 0.5,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 5.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.5,
        "prior_weight": 0.5
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.2,
          "form": 4.2,
          "final": 4.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 2.508,
          "final": 4.4679,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 4.925,
          "final": 4.4058,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.096,
          "final": 3.1646,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 4.52,
          "final": 4.2282,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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        "predicted_WHIP": {
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    "recent_form_analysis": {
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      "pitching": {
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      "fielding": {
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      "games_count": 5,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-16T00:00:00"
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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      },
      {
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      {
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    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 4,
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          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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      "total_change": {
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        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          "has_material_change": true,
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
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        "wins": 57,
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        "win_pct": 0.3631,
        "runs_scored": 729.0,
        "runs_allowed": 911.0,
        "run_differential": -182.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.1592,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.6433,
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          "avg_runs_scored": 4.1,
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        "available": true,
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      "opponent": {
        "team": "ARI",
        "games": 157,
        "wins": 83,
        "losses": 74,
        "win_pct": 0.5287,
        "runs_scored": 700.0,
        "runs_allowed": 696.0,
        "run_differential": 4.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0255,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4586,
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          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7,
          "run_differential": 5.0
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        "available": true,
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      "edges": {
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        "offense_edge": 0.0358,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0054,
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        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.3
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      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9778,
        "run_prevention": 1.0414,
        "strikeout": 0.9887
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "690279",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "690279",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 77.0,
            "k_percent": 22.8,
            "bb_percent": 11.9,
            "woba": 0.406,
            "xwoba": 0.364,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 41.5,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 10.8,
            "hard_hit_percent": 55.4,
            "avg_best_speed": 82.8197,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 95.8825,
            "whiff_percent": 18.9,
            "swing_percent": 46.4
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          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
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            "xwoba": 0.3115,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5964,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8957,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
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          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -1.5639,
            "command_and_miss": -0.3921,
            "regression_edge": 1.2,
            "xwoba_edge": -1.5,
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            "hard_hit_edge": -2.5,
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            "pitch_design_score": -0.021
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "690279",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 76,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 76,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.4878385893386,
              "release_spin_rate": 2271.065268740269,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            "pitch_mix": [
              {
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                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 76,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.4878385893386,
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                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.4878,
              "release_spin_rate": 2271.0653,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
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              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.021,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.1503,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.3867,
          "sample_weight": 0.45,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0329,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9864,
          "walk_factor": 1.0252,
          "homer_factor": 1.094,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.042,
          "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "690279",
            "espn_rank": null
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0148,
            "adjusted": 3
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          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0148,
            "adjusted": 5
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          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0113,
            "adjusted": 2
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          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0423,
            "adjusted": 1
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9939,
            "adjusted": 5
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      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.1,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 6,
      "predicted_ER": 6,
      "predicted_BB": 4,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 101,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
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  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 5 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 5",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -5; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -4."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "MISSED_SHUTDOWN",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Model missed a shutdown outing",
      "detail": "The pitcher allowed zero earned runs after a projection of 5 ER."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260923_ARI@COL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260923

20260923_CHW@KC

away

Bryan Hudson

True

5.0

0.1

-14

4/4

6/0

5/0

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.6173469387755106,
      "WHIP": 1.1632653061224492,
      "IP": 65.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 66,
      "role_avg_IP": 1.208,
      "recent_avg_IP": 1.267,
      "last_start_IP": 1.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.4575,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9611,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9909,
      "walk_factor": 0.944,
      "homer_factor": 0.9149,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 21.9,
      "bb_percent": 6.3,
      "woba": 0.292,
      "xwoba": 0.273,
      "barrel_percent": 4.3,
      "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
      "whiff_percent": 23.5
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 99,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 6.0,
      "season_IP": 65.1,
      "season_ERA": 2.617,
      "season_WHIP": 1.163,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 13.31,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7269,
        "prior_weight": 0.2731
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "663542",
      "report_date": "20260923",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 66,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 6.0,
            "BB": 0.0,
            "SO": 2.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 16.0,
            "Pitches": 58.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.0,
            "ER": 0.4,
            "R": 0.4,
            "H": 1.2,
            "BB": 0.0,
            "SO": 0.4,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 3.2,
            "Pitches": 11.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.1538,
            "WHIP": 1.3846,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.46154,
            "H_per_IP": 1.38462,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.0,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.46154,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.23077
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 10.1,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 11.0,
            "BB": 0.0,
            "SO": 7.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 38.0,
            "Pitches": 129.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.0,
            "ER": 0.2,
            "R": 0.2,
            "H": 1.1,
            "BB": 0.0,
            "SO": 0.7,
            "HR": 0.1,
            "BF": 3.8,
            "Pitches": 12.9
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.7419,
            "WHIP": 1.0645,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.19355,
            "H_per_IP": 1.06452,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.0,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.67742,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09677
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 66,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 65.1,
            "ER": 19.0,
            "R": 21.0,
            "H": 59.0,
            "BB": 17.0,
            "SO": 59.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 266.0,
            "Pitches": 1003.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.0,
            "ER": 0.2879,
            "R": 0.3182,
            "H": 0.8939,
            "BB": 0.2576,
            "SO": 0.8939,
            "HR": 0.0758,
            "BF": 4.0303,
            "Pitches": 15.197
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.6173,
            "WHIP": 1.1633,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.29082,
            "H_per_IP": 0.90306,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.2602,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.90306,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07653
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 2.1,
        "predicted_ER": 0.903,
        "predicted_H": 2.656,
        "predicted_BB": 0.333,
        "predicted_SO": 1.681,
        "predicted_HR": 0.359,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.4351,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2634
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4654,
      "form_weight": 0.5346,
      "form_reliability": 0.7269,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 13.31,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7269,
        "prior_weight": 0.2731
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 2.1,
          "final": 4.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 0.903,
          "final": 1.8789,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.656,
          "final": 3.2815,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 0.333,
          "final": 2.9703,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 1.681,
          "final": 3.2256,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.359,
          "final": 0.1919,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.4351,
          "final": 3.4351,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2634,
          "final": 1.2634,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 10.1,
        "ER": 2,
        "H": 11,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 7,
        "HR": 1,
        "ERA": 1.741935483870968,
        "WHIP": 1.0645161290322582,
        "K9": 6.096774193548388,
        "HR9": 0.870967741935484,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-18T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8926694782047592,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 6.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 13.31,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7269,
          "prior_weight": 0.2731
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 4,
          "predicted_BB": 6,
          "predicted_SO": 5,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 4,
          "predicted_BB": 6,
          "predicted_SO": 5,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "663542",
      "player_name": "Bryan Hudson",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CHW",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 6.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 6.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
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              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.1667,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 6.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
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            {
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 4,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 6.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
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          {
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          {
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          {
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          {
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        ],
        "summary": {
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          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "deboosted"
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
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        "games": 157,
        "wins": 81,
        "losses": 76,
        "win_pct": 0.5159,
        "runs_scored": 747.0,
        "runs_allowed": 702.0,
        "run_differential": 45.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.2866,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.758,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4713,
        "offense_index": 1.062,
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        "current_streak": "W3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9,
          "run_differential": 10.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0837
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "KC",
        "games": 157,
        "wins": 67,
        "losses": 90,
        "win_pct": 0.4268,
        "runs_scored": 667.0,
        "runs_allowed": 772.0,
        "run_differential": -105.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.6688,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.2484,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9172,
        "offense_index": 0.9483,
        "defense_index": 0.9111,
        "current_streak": "L5",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 2,
          "losses": 8,
          "win_pct": 0.2,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.5,
          "run_differential": -17.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.2493
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.333,
        "offense_edge": 0.062,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0517,
        "defense_strength": 0.002,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0889,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.4
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0154,
        "run_prevention": 0.9749,
        "strikeout": 1.0141
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "663542",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "663542",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 256.0,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 6.3,
            "woba": 0.292,
            "xwoba": 0.273,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 29.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 4.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.9829,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.3373,
            "whiff_percent": 23.5,
            "swing_percent": 48.0
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.3115,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5964,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8957,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.7034,
            "command_and_miss": 0.06,
            "regression_edge": 0.5429,
            "xwoba_edge": 1.1,
            "barrel_edge": 0.6444,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.0143,
            "whiff_edge": -0.2286,
            "bb_edge": 0.7,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0787
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "663542",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 13,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 13,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.45909611346684,
              "release_spin_rate": 2154.7309004103313,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 13,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.45909611346684,
                "release_spin_rate": 2154.7309004103313,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.4591,
              "release_spin_rate": 2154.7309,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0787,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.5618,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.4575,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9611,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9909,
          "walk_factor": 0.944,
          "homer_factor": 0.9149,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.019,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "663542",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9611,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9611,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.944,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9149,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9909,
            "adjusted": 3
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 6,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 25,
      "Pitches": 109,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least three innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -14 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -6."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260923_CHW@KC.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260923

20260923_CHW@KC

home

Seth Lugo

True

4.2

3.1

-4

4/7

6/0

6/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 5.059171597633136,
      "WHIP": 1.4615384615384615,
      "IP": 169.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 31,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.452,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.733,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.4979,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0423,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9411,
      "walk_factor": 0.966,
      "homer_factor": 1.0692,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 17.9,
      "bb_percent": 7.4,
      "woba": 0.359,
      "xwoba": 0.343,
      "barrel_percent": 8.0,
      "hard_hit_percent": 42.8,
      "whiff_percent": 18.8
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 689,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 31.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8611,
        "prior_weight": 0.1389
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "607625",
      "report_date": "20260923",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 31,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 23.2,
            "ER": 19.0,
            "R": 19.0,
            "H": 38.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 20.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 113.0,
            "Pitches": 448.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 3.8,
            "R": 3.8,
            "H": 7.6,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 4.0,
            "HR": 1.4,
            "BF": 22.6,
            "Pitches": 89.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 7.2254,
            "WHIP": 1.9437,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.80282,
            "H_per_IP": 1.60563,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.33803,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.84507,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.29577
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 51.1,
            "ER": 38.0,
            "R": 38.0,
            "H": 70.0,
            "BB": 16.0,
            "SO": 37.0,
            "HR": 8.0,
            "BF": 233.0,
            "Pitches": 903.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 3.8,
            "R": 3.8,
            "H": 7.0,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 3.7,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 23.3,
            "Pitches": 90.3
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.6623,
            "WHIP": 1.6753,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.74026,
            "H_per_IP": 1.36364,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.31169,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.72078,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15584
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 31,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 169.0,
            "ER": 95.0,
            "R": 103.0,
            "H": 193.0,
            "BB": 54.0,
            "SO": 131.0,
            "HR": 23.0,
            "BF": 732.0,
            "Pitches": 2786.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 3.0645,
            "R": 3.3226,
            "H": 6.2258,
            "BB": 1.7419,
            "SO": 4.2258,
            "HR": 0.7419,
            "BF": 23.6129,
            "Pitches": 89.871
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.0592,
            "WHIP": 1.4615,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.56213,
            "H_per_IP": 1.14201,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.31953,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.77515,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13609
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 3.459,
        "predicted_H": 6.732,
        "predicted_BB": 1.637,
        "predicted_SO": 3.984,
        "predicted_HR": 1.013,
        "predicted_ERA": 6.3161,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.6983
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4087,
      "form_weight": 0.5913,
      "form_reliability": 0.8611,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 31.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8611,
        "prior_weight": 0.1389
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 3.459,
          "final": 3.6801,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 6.732,
          "final": 5.6155,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 1.637,
          "final": 3.4201,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 3.984,
          "final": 4.8079,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.013,
          "final": 0.599,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 6.3161,
          "final": 6.3161,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.6983,
          "final": 1.6983,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 51.1,
        "ER": 38,
        "H": 70,
        "BB": 16,
        "SO": 37,
        "HR": 8,
        "ERA": 6.662337662337663,
        "WHIP": 1.6753246753246755,
        "K9": 6.487012987012988,
        "HR9": 1.4025974025974026,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 2,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": true
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-17T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.2551098973358492,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 6.0,
          "predicted_SO": 6.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 31.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8611,
          "prior_weight": 0.1389
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.2,
          "predicted_ER": 4,
          "predicted_H": 4,
          "predicted_BB": 6,
          "predicted_SO": 6,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "607625",
      "player_name": "Seth Lugo",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "KC",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 6.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 6.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.2,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": -0.8,
              "percent_delta": -0.16,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": -0.8,
              "percent_delta": -0.16,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 6.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.2,
            "predicted_R": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.2,
              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 4.2,
            "delta": -0.8,
            "percent_delta": -0.16,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 4.2,
            "delta": -0.8,
            "percent_delta": -0.16,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "KC",
        "games": 157,
        "wins": 67,
        "losses": 90,
        "win_pct": 0.4268,
        "runs_scored": 667.0,
        "runs_allowed": 772.0,
        "run_differential": -105.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.6688,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.2484,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9172,
        "offense_index": 0.9483,
        "defense_index": 0.9111,
        "current_streak": "L5",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 2,
          "losses": 8,
          "win_pct": 0.2,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.5,
          "run_differential": -17.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.2493
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "CHW",
        "games": 157,
        "wins": 81,
        "losses": 76,
        "win_pct": 0.5159,
        "runs_scored": 747.0,
        "runs_allowed": 702.0,
        "run_differential": 45.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.2866,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.758,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4713,
        "offense_index": 1.062,
        "defense_index": 1.002,
        "current_streak": "W3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9,
          "run_differential": 10.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0837
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.333,
        "offense_edge": -0.0517,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.062,
        "defense_strength": -0.0889,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.002,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.4
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9815,
        "run_prevention": 1.0355,
        "strikeout": 0.985
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "607625",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "607625",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 704.0,
            "k_percent": 17.9,
            "bb_percent": 7.4,
            "woba": 0.359,
            "xwoba": 0.343,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 36.5,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.0,
            "hard_hit_percent": 42.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.0229,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.5587,
            "whiff_percent": 18.8,
            "swing_percent": 46.1
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.3115,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5964,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8957,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.7117,
            "command_and_miss": -0.4871,
            "regression_edge": 0.4571,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.9,
            "barrel_edge": -0.1778,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.7,
            "whiff_edge": -0.9,
            "bb_edge": 0.425,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.2303
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "607625",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 93,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 93,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 85.75049184869331,
              "release_spin_rate": 2511.4585714700015,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 93,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 85.75049184869331,
                "release_spin_rate": 2511.4585714700015,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 85.7505,
              "release_spin_rate": 2511.4586,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.2303,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.6453,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.4979,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0423,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9411,
          "walk_factor": 0.966,
          "homer_factor": 1.0692,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.016,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "607625",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0423,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 1.0423,
            "adjusted": 7
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.966,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0692,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9411,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.2,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 6,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 24,
      "Pitches": 97,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -6."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260923_CHW@KC.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260923

20260923_CIN@ATL

away

Andrew Abbott

True

4.1

7.0

5/6

1/1

8/6

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.69811320754717,
      "WHIP": 1.471698113207547,
      "IP": 159.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 31,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.129,
      "recent_avg_IP": 3.933,
      "last_start_IP": 4.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.4444,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0378,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9606,
      "walk_factor": 1.032,
      "homer_factor": 1.0482,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 17.8,
      "bb_percent": 10.7,
      "woba": 0.335,
      "xwoba": 0.341,
      "barrel_percent": 8.2,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.8,
      "whiff_percent": 22.3
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 150,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 31.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8611,
        "prior_weight": 0.1389
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "671096",
      "report_date": "20260923",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 31,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 19.2,
            "ER": 20.0,
            "R": 22.0,
            "H": 30.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 17.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 97.0,
            "Pitches": 355.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.0,
            "ER": 4.0,
            "R": 4.4,
            "H": 6.0,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 3.4,
            "HR": 1.2,
            "BF": 19.4,
            "Pitches": 71.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 9.1525,
            "WHIP": 1.9831,
            "ER_per_IP": 1.01695,
            "H_per_IP": 1.52542,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.45763,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.86441,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.30508
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 48.0,
            "ER": 35.0,
            "R": 37.0,
            "H": 54.0,
            "BB": 25.0,
            "SO": 35.0,
            "HR": 8.0,
            "BF": 220.0,
            "Pitches": 832.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 3.5,
            "R": 3.7,
            "H": 5.4,
            "BB": 2.5,
            "SO": 3.5,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 22.0,
            "Pitches": 83.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.5625,
            "WHIP": 1.6458,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.72917,
            "H_per_IP": 1.125,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.52083,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.72917,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.16667
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 31,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 159.0,
            "ER": 83.0,
            "R": 89.0,
            "H": 159.0,
            "BB": 75.0,
            "SO": 125.0,
            "HR": 24.0,
            "BF": 701.0,
            "Pitches": 2769.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.6774,
            "R": 2.871,
            "H": 5.129,
            "BB": 2.4194,
            "SO": 4.0323,
            "HR": 0.7742,
            "BF": 22.6129,
            "Pitches": 89.3226
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.6981,
            "WHIP": 1.4717,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.52201,
            "H_per_IP": 1.0,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.4717,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.78616,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15094
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.1,
        "predicted_ER": 3.459,
        "predicted_H": 5.531,
        "predicted_BB": 2.089,
        "predicted_SO": 3.663,
        "predicted_HR": 0.96,
        "predicted_ERA": 6.9706,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.7064
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4087,
      "form_weight": 0.5913,
      "form_reliability": 0.8611,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 31.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8611,
        "prior_weight": 0.1389
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.2,
          "form": 4.1,
          "final": 4.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 3.459,
          "final": 2.454,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.531,
          "final": 5.314,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.089,
          "final": 1.6439,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 8.0,
          "form": 3.663,
          "final": 5.4355,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.96,
          "final": 0.9763,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 6.9706,
          "final": 6.9706,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.7064,
          "final": 1.7064,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 48.0,
        "ER": 35,
        "H": 54,
        "BB": 25,
        "SO": 35,
        "HR": 8,
        "ERA": 6.5625,
        "WHIP": 1.6458333333333333,
        "K9": 6.5625,
        "HR9": 1.5,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": true
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-16T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.2431408767730785,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 8.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 31.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8611,
          "prior_weight": 0.1389
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.1,
          "predicted_ER": 1,
          "predicted_H": 5,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 8,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "671096",
      "player_name": "Andrew Abbott",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CIN",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
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            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            },
            {
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              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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              "after": 4.1,
              "delta": -0.5667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1214,
              "direction": "deboost",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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              "after": 8.0,
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.1,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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            {
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            {
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              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
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          },
          {
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          },
          {
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            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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        ],
        "summary": {
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          "biggest_boost": null,
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            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "CIN",
        "games": 157,
        "wins": 73,
        "losses": 84,
        "win_pct": 0.465,
        "runs_scored": 646.0,
        "runs_allowed": 805.0,
        "run_differential": -159.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.0127,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1146,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.1274,
        "offense_index": 0.9184,
        "defense_index": 0.8738,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.2,
          "run_differential": -17.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1891
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "ATL",
        "games": 157,
        "wins": 92,
        "losses": 65,
        "win_pct": 0.586,
        "runs_scored": 722.0,
        "runs_allowed": 606.0,
        "run_differential": 116.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.7389,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5987,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8599,
        "offense_index": 1.0265,
        "defense_index": 1.1607,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
          "run_differential": 6.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1988
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.3879,
        "offense_edge": -0.0816,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0265,
        "defense_strength": -0.1262,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1607,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9796,
        "run_prevention": 1.0363,
        "strikeout": 0.9862
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "671096",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "671096",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 645.0,
            "k_percent": 17.8,
            "bb_percent": 10.7,
            "woba": 0.335,
            "xwoba": 0.341,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.7415,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.2035,
            "whiff_percent": 22.3,
            "swing_percent": 46.0
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.3115,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5964,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8957,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.5185,
            "command_and_miss": -0.4836,
            "regression_edge": -0.1714,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.8429,
            "barrel_edge": -0.2222,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.1286,
            "whiff_edge": -0.4,
            "bb_edge": -0.4,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.1391
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "671096",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 71,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 71,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 87.37940672170677,
              "release_spin_rate": 2443.046166911797,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 71,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 87.37940672170677,
                "release_spin_rate": 2443.046166911797,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.3794,
              "release_spin_rate": 2443.0462,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1391,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.9937,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.4444,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0378,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9606,
          "walk_factor": 1.032,
          "homer_factor": 1.0482,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.006,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "671096",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0378,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0378,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.032,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0482,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9606,
            "adjusted": 4
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.1,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 8,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 19,
      "Pitches": 81,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by +8 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260923_CIN@ATL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260923

20260923_CIN@ATL

home

Chris Sale

True

6.1

5.2

-2

-1

3/4

2/0

5/10

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
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      "WHIP": 0.9936305732484076,
      "IP": 157.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 26,
      "role_avg_IP": 6.038,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.8,
      "last_start_IP": 7.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.6599,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9439,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0754,
      "walk_factor": 0.916,
      "homer_factor": 0.9303,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 30.3,
      "bb_percent": 4.9,
      "woba": 0.259,
      "xwoba": 0.271,
      "barrel_percent": 6.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 35.2,
      "whiff_percent": 29.9
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 9,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 26.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8387,
        "prior_weight": 0.1613
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "519242",
      "report_date": "20260923",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 26,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 34.0,
            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 8.0,
            "H": 27.0,
            "BB": 3.0,
            "SO": 39.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 133.0,
            "Pitches": 508.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.2,
            "ER": 1.6,
            "R": 1.6,
            "H": 5.4,
            "BB": 0.6,
            "SO": 7.8,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 26.6,
            "Pitches": 101.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.1176,
            "WHIP": 0.8824,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.23529,
            "H_per_IP": 0.79412,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.08824,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.14706,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.02941
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 62.0,
            "ER": 14.0,
            "R": 14.0,
            "H": 43.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 78.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 235.0,
            "Pitches": 935.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.1,
            "ER": 1.4,
            "R": 1.4,
            "H": 4.3,
            "BB": 0.7,
            "SO": 7.8,
            "HR": 0.1,
            "BF": 23.5,
            "Pitches": 93.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.0323,
            "WHIP": 0.8065,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.22581,
            "H_per_IP": 0.69355,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.1129,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.25806,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.01613
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 26,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 157.0,
            "ER": 38.0,
            "R": 43.0,
            "H": 125.0,
            "BB": 31.0,
            "SO": 190.0,
            "HR": 9.0,
            "BF": 627.0,
            "Pitches": 2477.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.4615,
            "R": 1.6538,
            "H": 4.8077,
            "BB": 1.1923,
            "SO": 7.3077,
            "HR": 0.3462,
            "BF": 24.1154,
            "Pitches": 95.2692
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.1783,
            "WHIP": 0.9936,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.24204,
            "H_per_IP": 0.79618,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.19745,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.21019,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.05732
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.1,
        "predicted_ER": 1.779,
        "predicted_H": 5.09,
        "predicted_BB": 1.027,
        "predicted_SO": 7.405,
        "predicted_HR": 0.316,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.501,
        "predicted_WHIP": 0.9553
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4181,
      "form_weight": 0.5819,
      "form_reliability": 0.8387,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 26.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8387,
        "prior_weight": 0.1613
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.1,
          "form": 6.1,
          "final": 6.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 1.779,
          "final": 2.7077,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 5.09,
          "final": 5.4705,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.027,
          "final": 1.4339,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 7.405,
          "final": 5.1449,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.316,
          "final": 0.1839,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.501,
          "final": 2.501,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 0.9553,
          "final": 0.9553,
          "source": "form_only"
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
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      "pitching": {
        "IP": 62.0,
        "ER": 14,
        "H": 43,
        "BB": 7,
        "SO": 78,
        "HR": 1,
        "ERA": 2.032258064516129,
        "WHIP": 0.8064516129032258,
        "K9": 11.32258064516129,
        "HR9": 0.14516129032258066,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 9,
        "dominant_form": true,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-11T00:00:00"
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    "recent_form_boost": 0.7125041160203904,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 6.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 2.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
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        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 26.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8387,
          "prior_weight": 0.1613
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      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.1,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 6,
          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 7,
          "predicted_HR": 0
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "519242",
      "player_name": "Chris Sale",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "ATL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 2.0
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.1,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": -2.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.5,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.3333,
              "after": 6.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0368,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 5.0,
              "percent_delta": 2.5,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 3,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
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            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 5.0,
              "percent_delta": 2.5,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": -2.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.5,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.1,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -3.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.5,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.1,
              "after": 6.1,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": -2.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.2857,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 2,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -3.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.5,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": -2.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.5,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": -3.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.5,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.3333,
            "after": 6.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0368,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 3.0,
            "percent_delta": 1.5,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 4,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
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          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 3.0,
            "percent_delta": 1.5,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": -3.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.5,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "ATL",
        "games": 157,
        "wins": 92,
        "losses": 65,
        "win_pct": 0.586,
        "runs_scored": 722.0,
        "runs_allowed": 606.0,
        "run_differential": 116.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.7389,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5987,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8599,
        "offense_index": 1.0265,
        "defense_index": 1.1607,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
          "run_differential": 6.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1988
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "CIN",
        "games": 157,
        "wins": 73,
        "losses": 84,
        "win_pct": 0.465,
        "runs_scored": 646.0,
        "runs_allowed": 805.0,
        "run_differential": -159.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.0127,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1146,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.1274,
        "offense_index": 0.9184,
        "defense_index": 0.8738,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.2,
          "run_differential": -17.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1891
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.3879,
        "offense_edge": 0.0265,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0816,
        "defense_strength": 0.1607,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.1262,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0236,
        "run_prevention": 0.9515,
        "strikeout": 1.0182
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "519242",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "519242",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 575.0,
            "k_percent": 30.3,
            "bb_percent": 4.9,
            "woba": 0.259,
            "xwoba": 0.271,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.4,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 35.2,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.0619,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.4771,
            "whiff_percent": 29.9,
            "swing_percent": 50.5
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.3115,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5964,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8957,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.7892,
            "command_and_miss": 0.99,
            "regression_edge": -0.3429,
            "xwoba_edge": 1.1571,
            "barrel_edge": 0.2444,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.3857,
            "whiff_edge": 0.6857,
            "bb_edge": 1.05,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0645
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "519242",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 103,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 103,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.7123798188993,
              "release_spin_rate": 2355.026241900336,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 103,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.7123798188993,
                "release_spin_rate": 2355.026241900336,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.7124,
              "release_spin_rate": 2355.0262,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0645,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.4605,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.6599,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9439,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0754,
          "walk_factor": 0.916,
          "homer_factor": 0.9303,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.012,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "519242",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9439,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9439,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.916,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9303,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 1.0754,
            "adjusted": 8
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.1,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 24,
      "Pitches": 102,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: True; actual quality start: False."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260923_CIN@ATL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260923

20260923_CLE@BOS

away

Foster Griffin

True

5.1

6.0

-3

4/10

3/0

6/7

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.672,
      "WHIP": 1.1940000000000002,
      "IP": 166.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 30,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.556,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.467,
      "last_start_IP": 4.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.0994,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0085,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.988,
      "walk_factor": 0.948,
      "homer_factor": 1.0275,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 21.8,
      "bb_percent": 6.5,
      "woba": 0.311,
      "xwoba": 0.32,
      "barrel_percent": 8.5,
      "hard_hit_percent": 37.4,
      "whiff_percent": 23.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 38,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 30.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8571,
        "prior_weight": 0.1429
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "656492",
      "report_date": "20260923",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 30,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 22.1,
            "ER": 17.0,
            "R": 17.0,
            "H": 29.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 20.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 104.0,
            "Pitches": 424.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 3.4,
            "R": 3.4,
            "H": 5.8,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 4.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 20.8,
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          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.8507,
            "WHIP": 1.7463,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.76119,
            "H_per_IP": 1.29851,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.44776,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.89552,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 49.1,
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            "R": 35.0,
            "H": 60.0,
            "BB": 18.0,
            "SO": 40.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 220.0,
            "Pitches": 882.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 3.3,
            "R": 3.5,
            "H": 6.0,
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            "Pitches": 88.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.0203,
            "WHIP": 1.5811,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.66892,
            "H_per_IP": 1.21622,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.36486,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.81081,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12162
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        },
        "season": {
          "games": 30,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 166.2,
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            "R": 75.0,
            "H": 154.0,
            "BB": 45.0,
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          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.2667,
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            "H": 5.1333,
            "BB": 1.5,
            "SO": 5.0333,
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          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.672,
            "WHIP": 1.194,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.408,
            "H_per_IP": 0.924,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.27,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.906,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.138
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
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        "predicted_BB": 1.875,
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        "predicted_ERA": 5.7332,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.5464
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4104,
      "form_weight": 0.5896,
      "form_reliability": 0.8571,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 30.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8571,
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      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.1,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.1,
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 3.124,
          "final": 3.0731,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 5.71,
          "final": 5.0083,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 1.875,
          "final": 2.3367,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.306,
          "final": 4.5908,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.399,
          "final": 0.6456,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 5.7332,
          "final": 5.7332,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.5464,
          "final": 1.5464,
          "source": "form_only"
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 49.1,
        "ER": 33,
        "H": 60,
        "BB": 18,
        "SO": 40,
        "HR": 6,
        "ERA": 6.02027027027027,
        "WHIP": 1.581081081081081,
        "K9": 7.297297297297297,
        "HR9": 1.0945945945945945,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": true
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-15T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.1805212258721776,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 30.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8571,
          "prior_weight": 0.1429
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "656492",
      "player_name": "Foster Griffin",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CLE",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.3333,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
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            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0438,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.2,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0438,
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              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            "after": 3.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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            "delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
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            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0437,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.2,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
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        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 2,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
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          "biggest_boost": {
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            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.2,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
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          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0437,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "CLE",
        "games": 157,
        "wins": 82,
        "losses": 75,
        "win_pct": 0.5223,
        "runs_scored": 652.0,
        "runs_allowed": 649.0,
        "run_differential": 3.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0191,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1529,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1338,
        "offense_index": 0.9269,
        "defense_index": 1.0838,
        "current_streak": "W6",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 8,
          "losses": 2,
          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.5,
          "run_differential": 19.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1263
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "BOS",
        "games": 157,
        "wins": 84,
        "losses": 73,
        "win_pct": 0.535,
        "runs_scored": 680.0,
        "runs_allowed": 601.0,
        "run_differential": 79.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.5032,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3312,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.828,
        "offense_index": 0.9668,
        "defense_index": 1.1704,
        "current_streak": "L3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 2.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.1,
          "run_differential": -3.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0565
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0698,
        "offense_edge": -0.0731,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0332,
        "defense_strength": 0.0838,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1704,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.4
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0066,
        "run_prevention": 0.9828,
        "strikeout": 1.0048
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "656492",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "656492",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 669.0,
            "k_percent": 21.8,
            "bb_percent": 6.5,
            "woba": 0.311,
            "xwoba": 0.32,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 36.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.5,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.4,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.2193,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.0188,
            "whiff_percent": 23.1,
            "swing_percent": 48.2
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.3115,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5964,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8957,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.1118,
            "command_and_miss": 0.0236,
            "regression_edge": -0.2571,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.2429,
            "barrel_edge": -0.2889,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.0714,
            "whiff_edge": -0.2857,
            "bb_edge": 0.65,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.2153
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "656492",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 88,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 88,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 86.01981218316948,
              "release_spin_rate": 2149.763694103009,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 88,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 86.01981218316948,
                "release_spin_rate": 2149.763694103009,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 86.0198,
              "release_spin_rate": 2149.7637,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.2153,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.5375,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.0994,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0085,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.988,
          "walk_factor": 0.948,
          "homer_factor": 1.0275,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.009,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "656492",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0085,
            "adjusted": 3
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          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0085,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.948,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.0275,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.988,
            "adjusted": 5
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 101,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 6",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +6."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260923_CLE@BOS.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260923

20260923_CLE@BOS

home

Sonny Gray

True

6.0

-3

6/4

3/1

6/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "WHIP": 1.1595092024539877,
      "IP": 163.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 28,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.821,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.067,
      "last_start_IP": 6.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0628,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9947,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9909,
      "walk_factor": 0.954,
      "homer_factor": 0.9953,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 22.1,
      "bb_percent": 6.8,
      "woba": 0.297,
      "xwoba": 0.302,
      "barrel_percent": 7.2,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.5,
      "whiff_percent": 23.3
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 18,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 28.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8485,
        "prior_weight": 0.1515
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "543243",
      "report_date": "20260923",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 28,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
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          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 30.1,
            "ER": 12.0,
            "R": 12.0,
            "H": 26.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 29.0,
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            "BF": 125.0,
            "Pitches": 474.0
          },
          "per_game": {
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            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 5.2,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 5.8,
            "HR": 0.6,
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            "Pitches": 94.8
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          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.2198,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.3956,
            "H_per_IP": 0.85714,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.36264,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.95604,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0989
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 61.1,
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            "R": 23.0,
            "H": 58.0,
            "BB": 17.0,
            "SO": 56.0,
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            "BF": 253.0,
            "Pitches": 914.0
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          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 2.3,
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            "H": 5.8,
            "BB": 1.7,
            "SO": 5.6,
            "HR": 0.5,
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            "Pitches": 91.4
          },
          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.2228,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.375,
            "H_per_IP": 0.94565,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.27717,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.91304,
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        },
        "season": {
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          "totals": {
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            "R": 52.0,
            "H": 144.0,
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            "SO": 146.0,
            "HR": 16.0,
            "BF": 661.0,
            "Pitches": 2397.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 1.8214,
            "R": 1.8571,
            "H": 5.1429,
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            "Pitches": 85.6071
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            "WHIP": 1.1595,
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            "H_per_IP": 0.88344,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.27607,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.89571,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09816
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      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.334,
        "predicted_H": 5.388,
        "predicted_BB": 1.93,
        "predicted_SO": 5.529,
        "predicted_HR": 0.601,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.5345,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2312
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
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      "adaptive_parameters": {
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
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      "applied_metrics": {
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          "form": 6.0,
          "final": 6.0,
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
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          "final": 5.6414,
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        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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          "final": 4.896,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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          "form": 0.601,
          "final": 0.3522,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
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          "final": 3.5345,
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
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          "form": 1.2312,
          "final": 1.2312,
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    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
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        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
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        "trend": "stable"
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      "pitching": {
        "IP": 61.1,
        "ER": 23,
        "H": 58,
        "BB": 17,
        "SO": 56,
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        "ERA": 3.3750000000000004,
        "WHIP": 1.2228260869565217,
        "K9": 8.217391304347826,
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        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 6,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-17T00:00:00"
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    "recent_form_boost": 0.8739719456136583,
    "stat_evolution": [
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        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 6.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
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          "sample_size": 28.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8485,
          "prior_weight": 0.1515
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      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 6,
          "predicted_BB": 3,
          "predicted_SO": 6,
          "predicted_HR": 0
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "543243",
      "player_name": "Sonny Gray",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "BOS",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
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          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
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            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
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        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [
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              "delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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            {
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              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.25,
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              "projection_effect": "better",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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          "weights": {},
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        {
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          "step": "current_json_final",
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              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 87.40671359710561,
              "release_spin_rate": 2505.690298803869,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 91,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 87.40671359710561,
                "release_spin_rate": 2505.690298803869,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.4067,
              "release_spin_rate": 2505.6903,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1376,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.9828,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0628,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9947,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9909,
          "walk_factor": 0.954,
          "homer_factor": 0.9953,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.005,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "543243",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9947,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9947,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.954,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9953,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 0.9909,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 27,
      "Pitches": 118,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "MISSED_SHUTDOWN",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Model missed a shutdown outing",
      "detail": "The pitcher allowed zero earned runs after a projection of 3 ER."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260923_CLE@BOS.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260923

20260923_HOU@SEA

away

Ethan Pecko

True

5.0

2.2

-7

4/4

2/2

8/2

Last 10 before this game (6 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.7674418604651163,
      "WHIP": 1.1162790697674418,
      "IP": 28.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 6,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.333,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.333,
      "last_start_IP": 4.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.1851,
      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0157,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9784,
      "walk_factor": 1.0108,
      "homer_factor": 1.0317,
      "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 16.4,
      "bb_percent": 10.3,
      "woba": 0.301,
      "xwoba": 0.335,
      "barrel_percent": 9.8,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.6,
      "whiff_percent": 22.2
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 292,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.0,
      "season_IP": 28.2,
      "season_ERA": 3.767,
      "season_WHIP": 1.116,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.8653846153846154,
        "last_10": 0.1346153846153846
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 6.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.5455,
        "prior_weight": 0.4545
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "814490",
      "report_date": "20260923",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 6,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 25.0,
            "ER": 10.0,
            "R": 11.0,
            "H": 17.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 15.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 98.0,
            "Pitches": 398.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.2,
            "H": 3.4,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 3.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 19.6,
            "Pitches": 79.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.6,
            "WHIP": 1.04,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.4,
            "H_per_IP": 0.68,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.36,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.6,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.2
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 6,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 28.2,
            "ER": 12.0,
            "R": 13.0,
            "H": 20.0,
            "BB": 12.0,
            "SO": 19.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 116.0,
            "Pitches": 487.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.1667,
            "H": 3.3333,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 3.1667,
            "HR": 0.8333,
            "BF": 19.3333,
            "Pitches": 81.1667
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.7674,
            "WHIP": 1.1163,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.4186,
            "H_per_IP": 0.69767,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.4186,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.66279,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.17442
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 6,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 28.2,
            "ER": 12.0,
            "R": 13.0,
            "H": 20.0,
            "BB": 12.0,
            "SO": 19.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 116.0,
            "Pitches": 487.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.1667,
            "H": 3.3333,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 3.1667,
            "HR": 0.8333,
            "BF": 19.3333,
            "Pitches": 81.1667
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.7674,
            "WHIP": 1.1163,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.4186,
            "H_per_IP": 0.69767,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.4186,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.66279,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.17442
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.245,
        "predicted_H": 4.069,
        "predicted_BB": 1.85,
        "predicted_SO": 3.771,
        "predicted_HR": 0.869,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.0608,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1896
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.542,
      "form_weight": 0.458,
      "form_reliability": 0.5455,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 6.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.5455,
        "prior_weight": 0.4545
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 2.245,
          "final": 1.0282,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 4.069,
          "final": 4.0316,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.85,
          "final": 1.9313,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 8.0,
          "form": 3.771,
          "final": 6.0632,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.869,
          "final": 0.398,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.0608,
          "final": 4.0608,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1896,
          "final": 1.1896,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 28.2,
        "ER": 12,
        "H": 20,
        "BB": 12,
        "SO": 19,
        "HR": 5,
        "ERA": 3.7674418604651163,
        "WHIP": 1.1162790697674418,
        "K9": 5.965116279069767,
        "HR9": 1.569767441860465,
        "games_pitched": 6,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 6,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 6,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-17T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9197564002165157,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 0.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 8.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 6.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.5455,
          "prior_weight": 0.4545
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 0,
          "predicted_H": 4,
          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 8,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "814490",
      "player_name": "Ethan Pecko",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "HOU",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 0.0,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 8.0,
            "after": 8.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 0,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 0,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "HOU",
        "games": 157,
        "wins": 78,
        "losses": 79,
        "win_pct": 0.4968,
        "runs_scored": 695.0,
        "runs_allowed": 747.0,
        "run_differential": -52.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3312,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4268,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.758,
        "offense_index": 0.9869,
        "defense_index": 0.9427,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
          "run_differential": -12.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1133
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "SEA",
        "games": 157,
        "wins": 73,
        "losses": 84,
        "win_pct": 0.465,
        "runs_scored": 634.0,
        "runs_allowed": 697.0,
        "run_differential": -63.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.4013,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0382,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4395,
        "offense_index": 0.9003,
        "defense_index": 1.0103,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2,
          "run_differential": 11.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.114
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0007,
        "offense_edge": -0.0131,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0997,
        "defense_strength": -0.0573,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0103,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0023,
        "run_prevention": 0.9897,
        "strikeout": 1.008
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "814490",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "814490",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 95.0,
            "k_percent": 16.4,
            "bb_percent": 10.3,
            "woba": 0.301,
            "xwoba": 0.335,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 31.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 9.8,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.6,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.46,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.301,
            "whiff_percent": 22.2,
            "swing_percent": 45.4
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.3115,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5964,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8957,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.2937,
            "command_and_miss": -0.5586,
            "regression_edge": -0.9714,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.6714,
            "barrel_edge": -0.5778,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.1,
            "whiff_edge": -0.4143,
            "bb_edge": -0.3,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0555
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "814490",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 83,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 83,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.87197185297008,
              "release_spin_rate": 2284.8833648498585,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 83,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.87197185297008,
                "release_spin_rate": 2284.8833648498585,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.872,
              "release_spin_rate": 2284.8834,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0555,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.3967,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.1851,
          "sample_weight": 0.45,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0157,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9784,
          "walk_factor": 1.0108,
          "homer_factor": 1.0317,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.034,
          "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "814490",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0071,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0071,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0049,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0143,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9903,
            "adjusted": 3
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 0,
      "predicted_ER": 0,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 8,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 95,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 6 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +3."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -7 outs from the projected workload."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260923_HOU@SEA.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260923

20260923_HOU@SEA

home

George Kirby

True

6.0

5.0

-3

6/6

1/3

8/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.243614931237722,
      "WHIP": 1.3850687622789786,
      "IP": 169.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 29,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.851,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.933,
      "last_start_IP": 4.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.0543,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0046,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9731,
      "walk_factor": 0.94,
      "homer_factor": 1.0043,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 19.9,
      "bb_percent": 6.1,
      "woba": 0.338,
      "xwoba": 0.315,
      "barrel_percent": 6.6,
      "hard_hit_percent": 40.0,
      "whiff_percent": 22.4
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 125,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 29.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8529,
        "prior_weight": 0.1471
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "669923",
      "report_date": "20260923",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 29,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 29.2,
            "ER": 15.0,
            "R": 16.0,
            "H": 34.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 26.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 131.0,
            "Pitches": 472.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.2,
            "H": 6.8,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 5.2,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 26.2,
            "Pitches": 94.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.5506,
            "WHIP": 1.5169,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.50562,
            "H_per_IP": 1.14607,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.37079,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.8764,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13483
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 53.2,
            "ER": 34.0,
            "R": 35.0,
            "H": 67.0,
            "BB": 19.0,
            "SO": 39.0,
            "HR": 10.0,
            "BF": 241.0,
            "Pitches": 914.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 3.4,
            "R": 3.5,
            "H": 6.7,
            "BB": 1.9,
            "SO": 3.9,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 24.1,
            "Pitches": 91.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.7019,
            "WHIP": 1.6025,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.63354,
            "H_per_IP": 1.24845,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.35404,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.72671,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.18634
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 29,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 169.2,
            "ER": 80.0,
            "R": 85.0,
            "H": 191.0,
            "BB": 44.0,
            "SO": 143.0,
            "HR": 21.0,
            "BF": 718.0,
            "Pitches": 2662.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 2.7586,
            "R": 2.931,
            "H": 6.5862,
            "BB": 1.5172,
            "SO": 4.931,
            "HR": 0.7241,
            "BF": 24.7586,
            "Pitches": 91.7931
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.2436,
            "WHIP": 1.3851,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.47151,
            "H_per_IP": 1.12574,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.25933,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.84283,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12377
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 3.124,
        "predicted_H": 6.664,
        "predicted_BB": 2.017,
        "predicted_SO": 4.844,
        "predicted_HR": 0.872,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.8472,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.4964
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4121,
      "form_weight": 0.5879,
      "form_reliability": 0.8529,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 29.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8529,
        "prior_weight": 0.1471
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 3.124,
          "final": 2.6607,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 6.664,
          "final": 6.3903,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.017,
          "final": 1.5978,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.844,
          "final": 4.9083,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.872,
          "final": 0.9248,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.8472,
          "final": 4.8472,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.4964,
          "final": 1.4964,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 53.2,
        "ER": 34,
        "H": 67,
        "BB": 19,
        "SO": 39,
        "HR": 10,
        "ERA": 5.7018633540372665,
        "WHIP": 1.6024844720496894,
        "K9": 6.540372670807453,
        "HR9": 1.6770186335403725,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": true
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-16T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.14523553257018,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 6.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 29.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8529,
          "prior_weight": 0.1471
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "669923",
      "player_name": "George Kirby",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "SEA",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 3.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.6,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 1,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 3.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.6,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 6.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 8.0,
            "delta": 3.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.6,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 0,
          "better_metrics": 1,
          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 8.0,
            "delta": 3.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.6,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "SEA",
        "games": 157,
        "wins": 73,
        "losses": 84,
        "win_pct": 0.465,
        "runs_scored": 634.0,
        "runs_allowed": 697.0,
        "run_differential": -63.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.4013,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0382,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4395,
        "offense_index": 0.9003,
        "defense_index": 1.0103,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2,
          "run_differential": 11.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.114
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "HOU",
        "games": 157,
        "wins": 78,
        "losses": 79,
        "win_pct": 0.4968,
        "runs_scored": 695.0,
        "runs_allowed": 747.0,
        "run_differential": -52.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3312,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4268,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.758,
        "offense_index": 0.9869,
        "defense_index": 0.9427,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
          "run_differential": -12.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1133
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0007,
        "offense_edge": -0.0997,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0131,
        "defense_strength": 0.0103,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0573,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0008,
        "run_prevention": 0.9969,
        "strikeout": 1.001
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "669923",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "669923",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 691.0,
            "k_percent": 19.9,
            "bb_percent": 6.1,
            "woba": 0.338,
            "xwoba": 0.315,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.0,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.6,
            "hard_hit_percent": 40.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.17,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.1506,
            "whiff_percent": 22.4,
            "swing_percent": 51.8
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.3115,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5964,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8957,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.1784,
            "command_and_miss": -0.1136,
            "regression_edge": 0.6571,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.1,
            "barrel_edge": 0.1333,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.3,
            "whiff_edge": -0.3857,
            "bb_edge": 0.75,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.1179
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "669923",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 93,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 93,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 91.96952767159299,
              "release_spin_rate": 2257.4159200004274,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 93,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 91.96952767159299,
                "release_spin_rate": 2257.4159200004274,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 91.9695,
              "release_spin_rate": 2257.4159,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.1179,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.8423,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.0543,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0046,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9731,
          "walk_factor": 0.94,
          "homer_factor": 1.0043,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.023,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "669923",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0046,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 1.0046,
            "adjusted": 7
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.94,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0043,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9731,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 8,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 25,
      "Pitches": 110,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +2."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: True; actual quality start: False."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260923_HOU@SEA.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260923

20260923_LAA@OAK

away

Walbert Ureña

True

6.0

4.0

-6

3/7

4/1

6/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.74364896073903,
      "WHIP": 1.20554272517321,
      "IP": 144.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 28,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.487,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.333,
      "last_start_IP": 7.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.4603,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9609,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0223,
      "walk_factor": 1.04,
      "homer_factor": 0.9287,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 23.1,
      "bb_percent": 11.1,
      "woba": 0.274,
      "xwoba": 0.281,
      "barrel_percent": 5.4,
      "hard_hit_percent": 35.6,
      "whiff_percent": 27.8
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": null,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 28.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8485,
        "prior_weight": 0.1515
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "700712",
      "report_date": "20260923",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 28,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 31.2,
            "ER": 9.0,
            "R": 9.0,
            "H": 26.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 31.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 126.0,
            "Pitches": 464.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.1,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 1.8,
            "H": 5.2,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 6.2,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 25.2,
            "Pitches": 92.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.5579,
            "WHIP": 1.0737,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.28421,
            "H_per_IP": 0.82105,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.25263,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.97895,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.06316
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 57.0,
            "ER": 17.0,
            "R": 17.0,
            "H": 40.0,
            "BB": 20.0,
            "SO": 57.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 227.0,
            "Pitches": 889.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 1.7,
            "R": 1.7,
            "H": 4.0,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 5.7,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 22.7,
            "Pitches": 88.9
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.6842,
            "WHIP": 1.0526,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.29825,
            "H_per_IP": 0.70175,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.35088,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.0,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07018
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 28,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 144.1,
            "ER": 44.0,
            "R": 51.0,
            "H": 107.0,
            "BB": 67.0,
            "SO": 140.0,
            "HR": 9.0,
            "BF": 605.0,
            "Pitches": 2400.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 1.5714,
            "R": 1.8214,
            "H": 3.8214,
            "BB": 2.3929,
            "SO": 5.0,
            "HR": 0.3214,
            "BF": 21.6071,
            "Pitches": 85.7143
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.7436,
            "WHIP": 1.2055,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.30485,
            "H_per_IP": 0.74134,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.4642,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.96998,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.06236
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.0,
        "predicted_ER": 1.91,
        "predicted_H": 4.665,
        "predicted_BB": 1.971,
        "predicted_SO": 5.726,
        "predicted_HR": 0.457,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.9343,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1327
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.414,
      "form_weight": 0.586,
      "form_reliability": 0.8485,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 28.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8485,
        "prior_weight": 0.1515
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 6.0,
          "final": 6.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 1.91,
          "final": 2.3613,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 4.665,
          "final": 3.9757,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 1.971,
          "final": 2.811,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 5.726,
          "final": 5.0114,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.457,
          "final": 0.2678,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.9343,
          "final": 2.9343,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1327,
          "final": 1.1327,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 57.0,
        "ER": 17,
        "H": 40,
        "BB": 20,
        "SO": 57,
        "HR": 4,
        "ERA": 2.6842105263157894,
        "WHIP": 1.0526315789473684,
        "K9": 9.0,
        "HR9": 0.631578947368421,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 6,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-17T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.7920032671239557,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 4.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 28.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8485,
          "prior_weight": 0.1515
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 3,
          "predicted_BB": 4,
          "predicted_SO": 6,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "700712",
      "player_name": "Walbert Ure\u00f1a",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "LAA",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 2.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.5,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 1,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
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              "delta": 2.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.5,
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              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            },
            {
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
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            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
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            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 2.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.5,
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            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
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          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": {
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            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "LAA",
        "games": 157,
        "wins": 60,
        "losses": 97,
        "win_pct": 0.3822,
        "runs_scored": 632.0,
        "runs_allowed": 721.0,
        "run_differential": -89.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.5669,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0255,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5924,
        "offense_index": 0.8975,
        "defense_index": 0.9767,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.3,
          "run_differential": -15.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.2046
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "OAK",
        "games": 157,
        "wins": 62,
        "losses": 95,
        "win_pct": 0.3949,
        "runs_scored": 679.0,
        "runs_allowed": 900.0,
        "run_differential": -221.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.4076,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3248,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.7325,
        "offense_index": 0.9642,
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        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 7.2,
          "run_differential": -34.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.3319
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.1273,
        "offense_edge": -0.1025,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0358,
        "defense_strength": -0.0233,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.2175,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0058,
        "run_prevention": 0.9902,
        "strikeout": 1.0067
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "700712",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "700712",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 576.0,
            "k_percent": 23.1,
            "bb_percent": 11.1,
            "woba": 0.274,
            "xwoba": 0.281,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 26.4,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 5.4,
            "hard_hit_percent": 35.6,
            "avg_best_speed": 75.0987,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.6179,
            "whiff_percent": 27.8,
            "swing_percent": 46.7
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.3115,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5964,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8957,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.7718,
            "command_and_miss": 0.1121,
            "regression_edge": -0.2,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.8714,
            "barrel_edge": 0.4,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.3286,
            "whiff_edge": 0.3857,
            "bb_edge": -0.5,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.2362
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "700712",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 94,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 94,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 94.08088078222924,
              "release_spin_rate": 2099.1825547544627,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 94,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 94.08088078222924,
                "release_spin_rate": 2099.1825547544627,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 94.0809,
              "release_spin_rate": 2099.1826,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.2362,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 1.6869,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.4603,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9609,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0223,
          "walk_factor": 1.04,
          "homer_factor": 0.9287,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.007,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "700712",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9609,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9609,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.04,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9287,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0223,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 4,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 26,
      "Pitches": 113,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +2."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -6 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +4."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: True; actual quality start: False."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260923_LAA@OAK.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260923

20260923_LAA@OAK

home

Jeffrey Springs

True

4.2

4.1

-1

8/5

1/1

6/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "ERA": 6.180722891566265,
      "WHIP": 1.4674698795180723,
      "IP": 138.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 28,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.94,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.933,
      "last_start_IP": 3.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.3188,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0271,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9634,
      "walk_factor": 1.002,
      "homer_factor": 1.0345,
      "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 17.8,
      "bb_percent": 9.2,
      "woba": 0.366,
      "xwoba": 0.335,
      "barrel_percent": 9.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 34.5,
      "whiff_percent": 22.8
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 804,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 28.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8485,
        "prior_weight": 0.1515
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "605488",
      "report_date": "20260923",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 28,
      "reference_playing_time": 9.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 24.2,
            "ER": 19.0,
            "R": 19.0,
            "H": 26.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 20.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 108.0,
            "Pitches": 420.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 3.8,
            "R": 3.8,
            "H": 5.2,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 4.0,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 21.6,
            "Pitches": 84.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.9324,
            "WHIP": 1.4189,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.77027,
            "H_per_IP": 1.05405,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.36486,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.81081,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.16216
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 45.0,
            "ER": 35.0,
            "R": 36.0,
            "H": 51.0,
            "BB": 23.0,
            "SO": 29.0,
            "HR": 9.0,
            "BF": 205.0,
            "Pitches": 797.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 3.5,
            "R": 3.6,
            "H": 5.1,
            "BB": 2.3,
            "SO": 2.9,
            "HR": 0.9,
            "BF": 20.5,
            "Pitches": 79.7
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 7.0,
            "WHIP": 1.6444,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.77778,
            "H_per_IP": 1.13333,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.51111,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.64444,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.2
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 28,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 138.1,
            "ER": 95.0,
            "R": 102.0,
            "H": 147.0,
            "BB": 56.0,
            "SO": 109.0,
            "HR": 33.0,
            "BF": 612.0,
            "Pitches": 2380.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 3.3929,
            "R": 3.6429,
            "H": 5.25,
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            "SO": 3.8929,
            "HR": 1.1786,
            "BF": 21.8571,
            "Pitches": 85.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.1807,
            "WHIP": 1.4675,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.68675,
            "H_per_IP": 1.06265,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.40482,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.78795,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.23855
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 3.959,
        "predicted_H": 5.881,
        "predicted_BB": 2.296,
        "predicted_SO": 4.277,
        "predicted_HR": 1.015,
        "predicted_ERA": 6.4696,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.4847
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.414,
      "form_weight": 0.586,
      "form_reliability": 0.8485,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_size": 28.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8485,
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      },
      "applied_metrics": {
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          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 7.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 3.959,
          "final": 3.562,
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 8.0,
          "form": 5.881,
          "final": 6.7583,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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          "form": 2.296,
          "final": 1.7594,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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          "form": 4.277,
          "final": 4.9903,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.015,
          "final": 1.0088,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 6.4696,
          "final": 6.4696,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
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          "form": 1.4847,
          "final": 1.4847,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
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        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 45.0,
        "ER": 35,
        "H": 51,
        "BB": 23,
        "SO": 29,
        "HR": 9,
        "ERA": 6.999999999999999,
        "WHIP": 1.6444444444444442,
        "K9": 5.799999999999999,
        "HR9": 1.7999999999999998,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 1,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": true
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-17T00:00:00"
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    "recent_form_boost": 1.292324904550856,
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        "stats": {
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
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      },
      {
        "step": "starter_quality_floor",
        "description": "Weak starter floor restored expected damage from recent form instead of assigning it to zero-inning bullpen rows.",
        "stats": {
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "player_id": "605488",
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      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "OAK",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
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          "changed_metrics": [],
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          "stats": {
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          ],
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          },
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        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "starter_quality_floor",
          "description": "Weak starter floor restored expected damage from recent form instead of assigning it to zero-inning bullpen rows.",
          "stats": {
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
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            {
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
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          ],
          "summary": {
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            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 4,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
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            {
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            {
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            {
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              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
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          {
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          {
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          },
          {
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          },
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        ],
        "summary": {
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          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
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            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "OAK",
        "games": 157,
        "wins": 62,
        "losses": 95,
        "win_pct": 0.3949,
        "runs_scored": 679.0,
        "runs_allowed": 900.0,
        "run_differential": -221.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.4076,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3248,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.7325,
        "offense_index": 0.9642,
        "defense_index": 0.7825,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 7.2,
          "run_differential": -34.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.3319
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "LAA",
        "games": 157,
        "wins": 60,
        "losses": 97,
        "win_pct": 0.3822,
        "runs_scored": 632.0,
        "runs_allowed": 721.0,
        "run_differential": -89.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.5669,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0255,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5924,
        "offense_index": 0.8975,
        "defense_index": 0.9767,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.3,
          "run_differential": -15.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.2046
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.1273,
        "offense_edge": -0.0358,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.1025,
        "defense_strength": -0.2175,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0233,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9925,
        "run_prevention": 1.0117,
        "strikeout": 1.0044
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "605488",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "605488",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 584.0,
            "k_percent": 17.8,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.366,
            "xwoba": 0.335,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 35.9,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 9.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 34.5,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.1724,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.3919,
            "whiff_percent": 22.8,
            "swing_percent": 46.3
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.3115,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5964,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8957,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.5174,
            "command_and_miss": -0.3836,
            "regression_edge": 0.8857,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.6714,
            "barrel_edge": -0.4222,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.4857,
            "whiff_edge": -0.3286,
            "bb_edge": -0.025,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.2235
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "605488",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 87,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 87,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 85.8733346846715,
              "release_spin_rate": 1993.49048040678,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 87,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 85.8733346846715,
                "release_spin_rate": 1993.49048040678,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 85.8733,
              "release_spin_rate": 1993.4905,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.2235,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.5961,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.3188,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0271,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9634,
          "walk_factor": 1.002,
          "homer_factor": 1.0345,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.031,
          "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "605488",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0271,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0271,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.002,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0345,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9634,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.2,
      "predicted_H": 8,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 24,
      "Pitches": 99,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260923_LAA@OAK.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260923

20260923_MIA@CHC

away

Ryan Gusto

True

4.2

5.1

-2

3/6

3/2

3/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.137096774193548,
      "WHIP": 1.439516129032258,
      "IP": 82.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 22,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.314,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.0,
      "last_start_IP": 4.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.4561,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0388,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.956,
      "walk_factor": 0.958,
      "homer_factor": 1.0835,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 18.7,
      "bb_percent": 7.0,
      "woba": 0.34,
      "xwoba": 0.339,
      "barrel_percent": 8.9,
      "hard_hit_percent": 43.1,
      "whiff_percent": 20.6
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 208,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
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        },
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        "predicted_BB": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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          "final": 3.9512,
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      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-16T00:00:00"
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    "recent_form_boost": 0.9386281770013889,
    "stat_evolution": [
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        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
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        "stats": {
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    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
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          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
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          "changed_metrics": [],
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        {
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          "step": "current_json_final",
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          "stats": {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            {
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          },
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "MIA",
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        "runs_scored": 700.0,
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      "opponent": {
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        "runs_scored": 837.0,
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      "edges": {
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      "player_factors": {
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "687473",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "687473",
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          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 346.0,
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "687473",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 82,
            "primary_pitch": {
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              "pitches": 82,
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            ],
            "summary": {
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            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
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          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0388,
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          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_id": "687473",
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
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          "predicted_SO": {
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    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
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      "predicted_H": 3,
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      "BF": 20,
      "Pitches": 92,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260923_MIA@CHC.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260923

20260923_MIA@CHC

home

Kevin Gausman

True

5.2

4/6

0/1

5/7

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.5523255813953485,
      "WHIP": 1.2732558139534884,
      "IP": 172.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 31,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.548,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.733,
      "last_start_IP": 5.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.1363,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9884,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0263,
      "walk_factor": 0.944,
      "homer_factor": 1.0133,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 24.3,
      "bb_percent": 6.3,
      "woba": 0.315,
      "xwoba": 0.308,
      "barrel_percent": 7.6,
      "hard_hit_percent": 39.5,
      "whiff_percent": 27.3
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 183,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 31.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8611,
        "prior_weight": 0.1389
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "592332",
      "report_date": "20260923",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 31,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 28.2,
            "ER": 14.0,
            "R": 15.0,
            "H": 27.0,
            "BB": 6.0,
            "SO": 34.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 119.0,
            "Pitches": 487.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.8,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 5.4,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 6.8,
            "HR": 1.4,
            "BF": 23.8,
            "Pitches": 97.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.3953,
            "WHIP": 1.1512,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.48837,
            "H_per_IP": 0.94186,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.2093,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.18605,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.24419
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 56.1,
            "ER": 29.0,
            "R": 30.0,
            "H": 59.0,
            "BB": 12.0,
            "SO": 60.0,
            "HR": 10.0,
            "BF": 237.0,
            "Pitches": 954.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.9,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 5.9,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 6.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 23.7,
            "Pitches": 95.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.6331,
            "WHIP": 1.2604,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.51479,
            "H_per_IP": 1.04734,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.21302,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.06509,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.17751
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 31,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 172.0,
            "ER": 87.0,
            "R": 94.0,
            "H": 173.0,
            "BB": 46.0,
            "SO": 177.0,
            "HR": 25.0,
            "BF": 728.0,
            "Pitches": 2902.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.8065,
            "R": 3.0323,
            "H": 5.5806,
            "BB": 1.4839,
            "SO": 5.7097,
            "HR": 0.8065,
            "BF": 23.4839,
            "Pitches": 93.6129
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.5523,
            "WHIP": 1.2733,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.50581,
            "H_per_IP": 1.00581,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.26744,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.02907,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.14535
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.846,
        "predicted_H": 5.61,
        "predicted_BB": 1.381,
        "predicted_SO": 6.165,
        "predicted_HR": 1.098,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.5206,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2337
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4087,
      "form_weight": 0.5913,
      "form_reliability": 0.8611,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 31.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
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      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.846,
          "final": 2.5003,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 5.61,
          "final": 4.952,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.381,
          "final": 0.8166,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 6.165,
          "final": 5.6889,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.098,
          "final": 1.0579,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.5206,
          "final": 4.5206,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2337,
          "final": 1.2337,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 56.1,
        "ER": 29,
        "H": 59,
        "BB": 12,
        "SO": 60,
        "HR": 10,
        "ERA": 4.633136094674556,
        "WHIP": 1.2603550295857988,
        "K9": 9.585798816568047,
        "HR9": 1.5976331360946745,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 4,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-15T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0164504798302776,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 31.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8611,
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "592332",
      "player_name": "Kevin Gausman",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CHC",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
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              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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              "delta": -0.4667,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 0.0,
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          {
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            "before": 4.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          {
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            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
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            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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        ],
        "summary": {
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            "material": true
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          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "CHC",
        "games": 157,
        "wins": 87,
        "losses": 70,
        "win_pct": 0.5541,
        "runs_scored": 837.0,
        "runs_allowed": 691.0,
        "run_differential": 146.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.9299,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.3312,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4013,
        "offense_index": 1.19,
        "defense_index": 1.0179,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.9,
          "run_differential": 18.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1951
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      "opponent": {
        "team": "MIA",
        "games": 157,
        "wins": 77,
        "losses": 80,
        "win_pct": 0.4904,
        "runs_scored": 700.0,
        "runs_allowed": 697.0,
        "run_differential": 3.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0191,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4586,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4395,
        "offense_index": 0.9952,
        "defense_index": 1.0092,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.0,
          "run_differential": -4.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0058
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.2009,
        "offense_edge": 0.19,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0048,
        "defense_strength": 0.0179,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0092,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
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      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0088,
        "run_prevention": 0.9874,
        "strikeout": 1.0064
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "592332",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "592332",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 698.0,
            "k_percent": 24.3,
            "bb_percent": 6.3,
            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.308,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.1,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.6,
            "hard_hit_percent": 39.5,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.9024,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.4387,
            "whiff_percent": 27.3,
            "swing_percent": 50.0
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.3115,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5964,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8957,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.0263,
            "command_and_miss": 0.4043,
            "regression_edge": 0.2,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.1,
            "barrel_edge": -0.0889,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.2286,
            "whiff_edge": 0.3143,
            "bb_edge": 0.7,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.044
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "592332",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 95,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 95,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.07749610166415,
              "release_spin_rate": 2007.4215713814062,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
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                "pitches": 95,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.07749610166415,
                "release_spin_rate": 2007.4215713814062,
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                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.0775,
              "release_spin_rate": 2007.4216,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
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              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.044,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.3145,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.1363,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9884,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0263,
          "walk_factor": 0.944,
          "homer_factor": 1.0133,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.007,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "592332",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9884,
            "adjusted": 3
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          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9884,
            "adjusted": 5
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          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.944,
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          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0133,
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0263,
            "adjusted": 6
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 94,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260923_MIA@CHC.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260923

20260923_MIL@PHI

away

Logan Henderson

True

6.0

5.0

-3

-2

2/4

2/3

7/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.507142857142857,
      "WHIP": 0.8142857142857143,
      "IP": 93.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 17,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.49,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.0,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.6895,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9414,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0611,
      "walk_factor": 0.91,
      "homer_factor": 0.9852,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 30.7,
      "bb_percent": 4.6,
      "woba": 0.249,
      "xwoba": 0.257,
      "barrel_percent": 8.9,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.2,
      "whiff_percent": 27.0
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 34,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 6.0,
      "season_IP": 93.1,
      "season_ERA": 2.507,
      "season_WHIP": 0.814,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 17.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7727,
        "prior_weight": 0.2273
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "701656",
      "report_date": "20260923",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 17,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 30.0,
            "ER": 7.0,
            "R": 8.0,
            "H": 17.0,
            "BB": 4.0,
            "SO": 32.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 109.0,
            "Pitches": 475.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.4,
            "R": 1.6,
            "H": 3.4,
            "BB": 0.8,
            "SO": 6.4,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 21.8,
            "Pitches": 95.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.1,
            "WHIP": 0.7,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.23333,
            "H_per_IP": 0.56667,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.13333,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.06667,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13333
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 60.0,
            "ER": 15.0,
            "R": 16.0,
            "H": 36.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 69.0,
            "HR": 11.0,
            "BF": 221.0,
            "Pitches": 915.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.5,
            "R": 1.6,
            "H": 3.6,
            "BB": 0.9,
            "SO": 6.9,
            "HR": 1.1,
            "BF": 22.1,
            "Pitches": 91.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.25,
            "WHIP": 0.75,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.25,
            "H_per_IP": 0.6,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.15,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.15,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.18333
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 17,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 93.1,
            "ER": 26.0,
            "R": 27.0,
            "H": 60.0,
            "BB": 16.0,
            "SO": 107.0,
            "HR": 14.0,
            "BF": 349.0,
            "Pitches": 1418.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 1.5294,
            "R": 1.5882,
            "H": 3.5294,
            "BB": 0.9412,
            "SO": 6.2941,
            "HR": 0.8235,
            "BF": 20.5294,
            "Pitches": 83.4118
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.5071,
            "WHIP": 0.8143,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.27857,
            "H_per_IP": 0.64286,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.17143,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.14643,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.0,
        "predicted_ER": 1.814,
        "predicted_H": 4.019,
        "predicted_BB": 1.174,
        "predicted_SO": 6.322,
        "predicted_HR": 0.901,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.7687,
        "predicted_WHIP": 0.8805
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.446,
      "form_weight": 0.554,
      "form_reliability": 0.7727,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 17.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7727,
        "prior_weight": 0.2273
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 6.0,
          "final": 6.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 1.814,
          "final": 2.343,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 4.019,
          "final": 3.1185,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.174,
          "final": 1.5424,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 6.322,
          "final": 6.6244,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 0.901,
          "final": 1.3912,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.7687,
          "final": 2.7687,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 0.8805,
          "final": 0.8805,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 60.0,
        "ER": 15,
        "H": 36,
        "BB": 9,
        "SO": 69,
        "HR": 11,
        "ERA": 2.2500000000000004,
        "WHIP": 0.7500000000000001,
        "K9": 10.350000000000001,
        "HR9": 1.6500000000000001,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 6,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 2,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-16T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.7355887934397453,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 7.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 17.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7727,
          "prior_weight": 0.2273
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 2,
          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 7,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "701656",
      "player_name": "Logan Henderson",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "MIL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.5,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
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            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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            "biggest_deboost": null
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
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          {
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          },
          {
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            "delta": 0.0,
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        ],
        "summary": {
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          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "MIL",
        "games": 157,
        "wins": 98,
        "losses": 59,
        "win_pct": 0.6242,
        "runs_scored": 806.0,
        "runs_allowed": 606.0,
        "run_differential": 200.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.2739,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.1338,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8599,
        "offense_index": 1.1459,
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        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.6,
          "run_differential": 28.0
        },
        "available": true,
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      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "PHI",
        "games": 157,
        "wins": 87,
        "losses": 70,
        "win_pct": 0.5541,
        "runs_scored": 703.0,
        "runs_allowed": 672.0,
        "run_differential": 31.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1975,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4777,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2803,
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        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
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          "avg_runs_scored": 4.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.0,
          "run_differential": -6.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0702
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.2618,
        "offense_edge": 0.1459,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0005,
        "defense_strength": 0.1607,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0467,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0153,
        "run_prevention": 0.9708,
        "strikeout": 1.0079
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "701656",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "701656",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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            "k_percent": 30.7,
            "bb_percent": 4.6,
            "woba": 0.249,
            "xwoba": 0.257,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 32.9,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.9,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.2,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.3177,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.006,
            "whiff_percent": 27.0,
            "swing_percent": 53.6
          },
          "league_medians": {
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            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.3115,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5964,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8957,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.8735,
            "command_and_miss": 0.8857,
            "regression_edge": -0.2286,
            "xwoba_edge": 1.5571,
            "barrel_edge": -0.3778,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.0429,
            "whiff_edge": 0.2714,
            "bb_edge": 1.125,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.088
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "701656",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 96,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 96,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.2913826151733,
              "release_spin_rate": 2416.722169597347,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 96,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.2913826151733,
                "release_spin_rate": 2416.722169597347,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.2914,
              "release_spin_rate": 2416.7222,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.088,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.6289,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.6895,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9414,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0611,
          "walk_factor": 0.91,
          "homer_factor": 0.9852,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.008,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "701656",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9414,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9414,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.91,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9852,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0611,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 90,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: True; actual quality start: False."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260923_MIL@PHI.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260923

20260923_MIL@PHI

home

Aaron Nola

True

6.0

6/4

2/1

7/8

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.491089108910891,
      "WHIP": 1.3485148514851484,
      "IP": 168.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 31,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.43,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.267,
      "last_start_IP": 7.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0222,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9981,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0229,
      "walk_factor": 0.98,
      "homer_factor": 1.0473,
      "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 23.7,
      "bb_percent": 8.1,
      "woba": 0.342,
      "xwoba": 0.312,
      "barrel_percent": 9.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 40.2,
      "whiff_percent": 27.3
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 31,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 31.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8611,
        "prior_weight": 0.1389
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "605400",
      "report_date": "20260923",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 31,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 31.1,
            "ER": 6.0,
            "R": 6.0,
            "H": 21.0,
            "BB": 12.0,
            "SO": 23.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 121.0,
            "Pitches": 471.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.1,
            "ER": 1.2,
            "R": 1.2,
            "H": 4.2,
            "BB": 2.4,
            "SO": 4.6,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 24.2,
            "Pitches": 94.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.7234,
            "WHIP": 1.0532,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.19149,
            "H_per_IP": 0.67021,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.38298,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.73404,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09574
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 60.0,
            "ER": 14.0,
            "R": 14.0,
            "H": 48.0,
            "BB": 22.0,
            "SO": 57.0,
            "HR": 9.0,
            "BF": 239.0,
            "Pitches": 955.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.4,
            "R": 1.4,
            "H": 4.8,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 5.7,
            "HR": 0.9,
            "BF": 23.9,
            "Pitches": 95.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.1,
            "WHIP": 1.1667,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.23333,
            "H_per_IP": 0.8,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.36667,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.95,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 31,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 168.1,
            "ER": 84.0,
            "R": 86.0,
            "H": 169.0,
            "BB": 58.0,
            "SO": 169.0,
            "HR": 34.0,
            "BF": 714.0,
            "Pitches": 2837.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.7097,
            "R": 2.7742,
            "H": 5.4516,
            "BB": 1.871,
            "SO": 5.4516,
            "HR": 1.0968,
            "BF": 23.0323,
            "Pitches": 91.5161
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.4911,
            "WHIP": 1.3485,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.49901,
            "H_per_IP": 1.00396,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.34455,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.00396,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.20198
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.0,
        "predicted_ER": 1.812,
        "predicted_H": 4.871,
        "predicted_BB": 2.229,
        "predicted_SO": 5.256,
        "predicted_HR": 0.828,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.7113,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1805
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4087,
      "form_weight": 0.5913,
      "form_reliability": 0.8611,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 31.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8611,
        "prior_weight": 0.1389
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 6.0,
          "final": 6.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 1.812,
          "final": 2.2975,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 4.871,
          "final": 5.3324,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.229,
          "final": 2.1354,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 5.256,
          "final": 5.9687,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.828,
          "final": 0.8983,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.7113,
          "final": 2.7113,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1805,
          "final": 1.1805,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 60.0,
        "ER": 14,
        "H": 48,
        "BB": 22,
        "SO": 57,
        "HR": 9,
        "ERA": 2.1,
        "WHIP": 1.1666666666666667,
        "K9": 8.55,
        "HR9": 1.35,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 6,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-17T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.7291304601064118,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 6.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 7.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 31.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8611,
          "prior_weight": 0.1389
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "605400",
      "player_name": "Aaron Nola",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "PHI",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 7.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 0,
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          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "PHI",
        "games": 157,
        "wins": 87,
        "losses": 70,
        "win_pct": 0.5541,
        "runs_scored": 703.0,
        "runs_allowed": 672.0,
        "run_differential": 31.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1975,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4777,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2803,
        "offense_index": 0.9995,
        "defense_index": 1.0467,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.0,
          "run_differential": -6.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0702
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "MIL",
        "games": 157,
        "wins": 98,
        "losses": 59,
        "win_pct": 0.6242,
        "runs_scored": 806.0,
        "runs_allowed": 606.0,
        "run_differential": 200.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.2739,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.1338,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8599,
        "offense_index": 1.1459,
        "defense_index": 1.1607,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.6,
          "run_differential": 28.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.332
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.2618,
        "offense_edge": -0.0005,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.1459,
        "defense_strength": 0.0467,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1607,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9851,
        "run_prevention": 1.0318,
        "strikeout": 0.9805
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "605400",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "605400",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 663.0,
            "k_percent": 23.7,
            "bb_percent": 8.1,
            "woba": 0.342,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.4,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 9.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 40.2,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.8713,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.2748,
            "whiff_percent": 27.3,
            "swing_percent": 46.2
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.3115,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5964,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8957,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.2102,
            "command_and_miss": 0.2757,
            "regression_edge": 0.8571,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.0143,
            "barrel_edge": -0.4222,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.3286,
            "whiff_edge": 0.3143,
            "bb_edge": 0.25,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.2181
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "605400",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 98,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 98,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 85.96943619771524,
              "release_spin_rate": 2296.1915924432924,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 98,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 85.96943619771524,
                "release_spin_rate": 2296.1915924432924,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 85.9694,
              "release_spin_rate": 2296.1916,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.2181,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.5577,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0222,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9981,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0229,
          "walk_factor": 0.98,
          "homer_factor": 1.0473,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.03,
          "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "605400",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9981,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9981,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.98,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0473,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0229,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 26,
      "Pitches": 114,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: True; actual quality start: False."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260923_MIL@PHI.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260923

20260923_MIN@SF

away

Connor Prielipp

True

5.2

5.1

-1

2/4

1/2

4/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.93628808864266,
      "WHIP": 1.296398891966759,
      "IP": 120.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 23,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.302,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.733,
      "last_start_IP": 7.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.01,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9991,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0063,
      "walk_factor": 0.982,
      "homer_factor": 1.0133,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 24.4,
      "bb_percent": 8.2,
      "woba": 0.316,
      "xwoba": 0.308,
      "barrel_percent": 6.8,
      "hard_hit_percent": 42.0,
      "whiff_percent": 23.7
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 354,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 23.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8214,
        "prior_weight": 0.1786
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "687570",
      "report_date": "20260923",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 23,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 26.2,
            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 8.0,
            "H": 21.0,
            "BB": 4.0,
            "SO": 24.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 105.0,
            "Pitches": 388.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 1.6,
            "R": 1.6,
            "H": 4.2,
            "BB": 0.8,
            "SO": 4.8,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 21.0,
            "Pitches": 77.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.7,
            "WHIP": 0.9375,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.3,
            "H_per_IP": 0.7875,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.15,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.9,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0375
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 53.2,
            "ER": 29.0,
            "R": 29.0,
            "H": 48.0,
            "BB": 17.0,
            "SO": 54.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 219.0,
            "Pitches": 834.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.9,
            "R": 2.9,
            "H": 4.8,
            "BB": 1.7,
            "SO": 5.4,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 21.9,
            "Pitches": 83.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.8634,
            "WHIP": 1.2112,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.54037,
            "H_per_IP": 0.89441,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.31677,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.00621,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1118
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 23,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 120.1,
            "ER": 66.0,
            "R": 74.0,
            "H": 114.0,
            "BB": 42.0,
            "SO": 125.0,
            "HR": 14.0,
            "BF": 513.0,
            "Pitches": 1990.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.8696,
            "R": 3.2174,
            "H": 4.9565,
            "BB": 1.8261,
            "SO": 5.4348,
            "HR": 0.6087,
            "BF": 22.3043,
            "Pitches": 86.5217
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.9363,
            "WHIP": 1.2964,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.54848,
            "H_per_IP": 0.94737,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.34903,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.03878,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11634
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.413,
        "predicted_H": 4.74,
        "predicted_BB": 1.462,
        "predicted_SO": 5.177,
        "predicted_HR": 0.494,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.0263,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1501
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4255,
      "form_weight": 0.5745,
      "form_reliability": 0.8214,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 23.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8214,
        "prior_weight": 0.1786
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.413,
          "final": 2.6627,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 4.74,
          "final": 3.5742,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.462,
          "final": 1.2654,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 5.177,
          "final": 4.6762,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.494,
          "final": 0.2838,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.0263,
          "final": 4.0263,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1501,
          "final": 1.1501,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 53.2,
        "ER": 29,
        "H": 48,
        "BB": 17,
        "SO": 54,
        "HR": 6,
        "ERA": 4.863354037267081,
        "WHIP": 1.2111801242236024,
        "K9": 9.055900621118013,
        "HR9": 1.0062111801242237,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 1,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-18T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0411206257378818,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 23.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8214,
          "prior_weight": 0.1786
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "687570",
      "player_name": "Connor Prielipp",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "MIN",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
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              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 2.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
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            "percent_delta": null,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
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            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
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          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
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            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "MIN",
        "games": 158,
        "wins": 74,
        "losses": 84,
        "win_pct": 0.4684,
        "runs_scored": 717.0,
        "runs_allowed": 783.0,
        "run_differential": -66.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.4177,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.538,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9557,
        "offense_index": 1.0089,
        "defense_index": 0.9076,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7,
          "run_differential": -11.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1129
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "SF",
        "games": 158,
        "wins": 65,
        "losses": 93,
        "win_pct": 0.4114,
        "runs_scored": 663.0,
        "runs_allowed": 745.0,
        "run_differential": -82.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.519,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1962,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7152,
        "offense_index": 0.933,
        "defense_index": 0.9539,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9,
          "run_differential": -8.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.2088
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0959,
        "offense_edge": 0.0089,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.067,
        "defense_strength": -0.0924,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0461,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0037,
        "run_prevention": 0.9937,
        "strikeout": 1.0082
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "687570",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "687570",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 484.0,
            "k_percent": 24.4,
            "bb_percent": 8.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.308,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.9,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.8,
            "hard_hit_percent": 42.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 80.5018,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.2977,
            "whiff_percent": 23.7,
            "swing_percent": 47.5
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.3115,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5964,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8957,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.0876,
            "command_and_miss": 0.1357,
            "regression_edge": 0.2286,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.1,
            "barrel_edge": 0.0889,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.5857,
            "whiff_edge": -0.2,
            "bb_edge": 0.225,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0121
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "687570",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 78,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 78,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.07941742576352,
              "release_spin_rate": 2601.583158009434,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 78,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.07941742576352,
                "release_spin_rate": 2601.583158009434,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.0794,
              "release_spin_rate": 2601.5832,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0121,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.0863,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.01,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9991,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0063,
          "walk_factor": 0.982,
          "homer_factor": 1.0133,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.008,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "687570",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9991,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 0.9991,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.982,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.0133,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0063,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 81,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260923_MIN@SF.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260923

20260923_MIN@SF

home

Cesar Perdomo

True

4.2

5.1

4/5

2/0

5/2

Last 10 before this game (4 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.724137931034483,
      "WHIP": 1.5,
      "IP": 19.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 4,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.111,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.111,
      "last_start_IP": 4.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.2374,
      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0202,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9679,
      "walk_factor": 0.9937,
      "homer_factor": 1.0262,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 14.5,
      "bb_percent": 8.4,
      "woba": 0.346,
      "xwoba": 0.338,
      "barrel_percent": 6.3,
      "hard_hit_percent": 46.9,
      "whiff_percent": 20.0
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 313,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 1.0
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 4.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.4444,
        "prior_weight": 0.5556
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "702885",
      "report_date": "20260923",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 4,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 4,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 19.1,
            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 8.0,
            "H": 22.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 12.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 83.0,
            "Pitches": 298.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 5.5,
            "BB": 1.75,
            "SO": 3.0,
            "HR": 0.75,
            "BF": 20.75,
            "Pitches": 74.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.7241,
            "WHIP": 1.5,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.41379,
            "H_per_IP": 1.13793,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.36207,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.62069,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15517
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 4,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 19.1,
            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 8.0,
            "H": 22.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 12.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 83.0,
            "Pitches": 298.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 5.5,
            "BB": 1.75,
            "SO": 3.0,
            "HR": 0.75,
            "BF": 20.75,
            "Pitches": 74.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.7241,
            "WHIP": 1.5,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.41379,
            "H_per_IP": 1.13793,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.36207,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.62069,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15517
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 4,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 19.1,
            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 8.0,
            "H": 22.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 12.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 83.0,
            "Pitches": 298.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 5.5,
            "BB": 1.75,
            "SO": 3.0,
            "HR": 0.75,
            "BF": 20.75,
            "Pitches": 74.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.7241,
            "WHIP": 1.5,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.41379,
            "H_per_IP": 1.13793,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.36207,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.62069,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15517
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.266,
        "predicted_H": 5.096,
        "predicted_BB": 1.796,
        "predicted_SO": 3.865,
        "predicted_HR": 0.734,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.2034,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.4205
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.5847,
      "form_weight": 0.4153,
      "form_reliability": 0.4444,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 4.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.4444,
        "prior_weight": 0.5556
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.266,
          "final": 2.1105,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 5.096,
          "final": 2.7009,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.796,
          "final": 1.9153,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 3.865,
          "final": 4.5287,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.734,
          "final": 0.3048,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.2034,
          "final": 4.2034,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.4205,
          "final": 1.4205,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "insufficient_data"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 19.1,
        "ER": 8,
        "H": 22,
        "BB": 7,
        "SO": 12,
        "HR": 3,
        "ERA": 3.724137931034482,
        "WHIP": 1.4999999999999998,
        "K9": 5.586206896551723,
        "HR9": 1.3965517241379308,
        "games_pitched": 4,
        "quality_starts": 1,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 4,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 4,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-18T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9489044831644622,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 1.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 4.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.4444,
          "prior_weight": 0.5556
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.2,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 1,
          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 5,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_quality_floor",
        "description": "Weak starter floor restored expected damage from recent form instead of assigning it to zero-inning bullpen rows.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.2,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 4,
          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 5,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "702885",
      "player_name": "Cesar Perdomo",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "SF",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 1.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 1.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.2,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": -0.8,
              "percent_delta": -0.16,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
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              "delta": -0.8,
              "percent_delta": -0.16,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "starter_quality_floor",
          "description": "Weak starter floor restored expected damage from recent form instead of assigning it to zero-inning bullpen rows.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.2,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 3.0,
              "percent_delta": 3.0,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.2,
              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 3.0,
              "percent_delta": 3.0,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 4,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.2,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.2,
              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 3.0,
            "percent_delta": 3.0,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 4.2,
            "delta": -0.8,
            "percent_delta": -0.16,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 2,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
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          "worse_metrics": 2,
          "biggest_boost": {
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            "percent_delta": 3.0,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 4.2,
            "delta": -0.8,
            "percent_delta": -0.16,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "SF",
        "games": 158,
        "wins": 65,
        "losses": 93,
        "win_pct": 0.4114,
        "runs_scored": 663.0,
        "runs_allowed": 745.0,
        "run_differential": -82.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.519,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1962,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7152,
        "offense_index": 0.933,
        "defense_index": 0.9539,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9,
          "run_differential": -8.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.2088
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "MIN",
        "games": 158,
        "wins": 74,
        "losses": 84,
        "win_pct": 0.4684,
        "runs_scored": 717.0,
        "runs_allowed": 783.0,
        "run_differential": -66.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.4177,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.538,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9557,
        "offense_index": 1.0089,
        "defense_index": 0.9076,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7,
          "run_differential": -11.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1129
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0959,
        "offense_edge": -0.067,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0089,
        "defense_strength": -0.0461,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0924,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9944,
        "run_prevention": 1.0108,
        "strikeout": 0.9964
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "702885",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "702885",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 61.0,
            "k_percent": 14.5,
            "bb_percent": 8.4,
            "woba": 0.346,
            "xwoba": 0.338,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 37.5,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 46.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 81.2421,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.7299,
            "whiff_percent": 20.0,
            "swing_percent": 50.3
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.3115,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5964,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8957,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.6579,
            "command_and_miss": -0.6957,
            "regression_edge": 0.2286,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.7571,
            "barrel_edge": 0.2,
            "hard_hit_edge": -1.2857,
            "whiff_edge": -0.7286,
            "bb_edge": 0.175,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0146
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "702885",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 71,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 71,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.60313256754885,
              "release_spin_rate": 2051.5478690156715,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 71,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.60313256754885,
                "release_spin_rate": 2051.5478690156715,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.6031,
              "release_spin_rate": 2051.5479,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0146,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.1042,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.2374,
          "sample_weight": 0.45,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0202,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9679,
          "walk_factor": 0.9937,
          "homer_factor": 1.0262,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.008,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "702885",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0091,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0091,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9972,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0118,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9856,
            "adjusted": 3
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.2,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 20,
      "Pitches": 91,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 4 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260923_MIN@SF.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260923

20260923_NYM@TEX

away

Nolan McLean

True

6.0

7.0

0/3

0/1

6/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.1795366795366795,
      "WHIP": 1.193050193050193,
      "IP": 172.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 30,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.756,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.0,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.2313,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9803,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0171,
      "walk_factor": 1.01,
      "homer_factor": 0.962,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 26.2,
      "bb_percent": 9.6,
      "woba": 0.293,
      "xwoba": 0.297,
      "barrel_percent": 6.5,
      "hard_hit_percent": 35.6,
      "whiff_percent": 23.8
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 44,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 30.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8571,
        "prior_weight": 0.1429
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "690997",
      "report_date": "20260923",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 30,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 30.0,
            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 9.0,
            "H": 26.0,
            "BB": 15.0,
            "SO": 27.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 128.0,
            "Pitches": 473.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.6,
            "R": 1.8,
            "H": 5.2,
            "BB": 3.0,
            "SO": 5.4,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 25.6,
            "Pitches": 94.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.4,
            "WHIP": 1.3667,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.26667,
            "H_per_IP": 0.86667,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.5,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.9,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.06667
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 59.1,
            "ER": 19.0,
            "R": 22.0,
            "H": 54.0,
            "BB": 28.0,
            "SO": 54.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 253.0,
            "Pitches": 950.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.9,
            "R": 2.2,
            "H": 5.4,
            "BB": 2.8,
            "SO": 5.4,
            "HR": 0.7,
            "BF": 25.3,
            "Pitches": 95.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.882,
            "WHIP": 1.382,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.32022,
            "H_per_IP": 0.91011,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.47191,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.91011,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11798
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 30,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 172.2,
            "ER": 61.0,
            "R": 73.0,
            "H": 137.0,
            "BB": 69.0,
            "SO": 189.0,
            "HR": 17.0,
            "BF": 722.0,
            "Pitches": 2832.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.0333,
            "R": 2.4333,
            "H": 4.5667,
            "BB": 2.3,
            "SO": 6.3,
            "HR": 0.5667,
            "BF": 24.0667,
            "Pitches": 94.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.1795,
            "WHIP": 1.1931,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.35328,
            "H_per_IP": 0.79344,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.39961,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.09459,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09846
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.0,
        "predicted_ER": 1.975,
        "predicted_H": 5.25,
        "predicted_BB": 2.714,
        "predicted_SO": 5.596,
        "predicted_HR": 0.589,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.9907,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3401
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4104,
      "form_weight": 0.5896,
      "form_reliability": 0.8571,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 30.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8571,
        "prior_weight": 0.1429
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 6.0,
          "final": 6.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.975,
          "final": 1.1645,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 5.25,
          "final": 3.0955,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 2.714,
          "final": 1.6002,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.596,
          "final": 5.3514,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.589,
          "final": 0.3473,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.9907,
          "final": 2.9907,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3401,
          "final": 1.3401,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 59.1,
        "ER": 19,
        "H": 54,
        "BB": 28,
        "SO": 54,
        "HR": 7,
        "ERA": 2.8820224719101124,
        "WHIP": 1.3820224719101124,
        "K9": 8.191011235955056,
        "HR9": 1.0617977528089888,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 8,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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        {
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          "step": "current_json_final",
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      "total_change": {
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
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      "team": {
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        "losses": 85,
        "win_pct": 0.4586,
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        "runs_allowed": 712.0,
        "run_differential": -38.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.242,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.293,
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        "available": true,
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      "opponent": {
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        "games": 157,
        "wins": 78,
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        "runs_scored": 656.0,
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      "player_factors": {
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
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        "pitcher_id": "690997",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "690997",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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            "avg_best_speed": 76.8262,
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          "league_medians": {
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            "xwoba": 0.3115,
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          "components": {
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            "regression_edge": -0.1143,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.4143,
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            "pitch_design_score": 0.0713
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "690997",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 98,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 98,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 91.13702714608331,
              "release_spin_rate": 2501.49716928675,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
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              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
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            "pitch_mix": [
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                "pitches": 98,
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                "release_speed": 91.13702714608331,
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                "spin_axis": null,
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                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
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                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 91.137,
              "release_spin_rate": 2501.4972,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.2313,
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          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_id": "690997",
            "espn_rank": null
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
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          "predicted_H": {
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          "predicted_BB": {
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            "factor": 1.01,
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          "predicted_HR": {
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          "predicted_SO": {
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    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
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      "predicted_H": 0,
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      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 18,
      "Pitches": 76,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260923_NYM@TEX.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260923

20260923_NYM@TEX

home

Cody Bradford

True

4.2

4.1

-1

4/4

0/0

11/1

Last 10 before this game (8 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
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      "games_started": null,
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      "xwoba": 0.345,
      "barrel_percent": 9.5,
      "hard_hit_percent": 37.0,
      "whiff_percent": 17.4
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 283,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
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      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
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      "effective_weights": {
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      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "674003",
      "report_date": "20260923",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 8,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.667,
      "windows": {
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          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
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            "R": 13.0,
            "H": 30.0,
            "BB": 6.0,
            "SO": 10.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
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          },
          "per_game": {
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            "H": 6.0,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 2.0,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 20.8,
            "Pitches": 80.4
          },
          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.5429,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.55714,
            "H_per_IP": 1.28571,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.25714,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.42857,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12857
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 8,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 38.2,
            "ER": 18.0,
            "R": 18.0,
            "H": 48.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 20.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
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            "Pitches": 628.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.25,
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            "H": 6.0,
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            "Pitches": 78.5
          },
          "rates": {
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            "H_per_IP": 1.24138,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.25862,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.51724,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10345
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 8,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 38.2,
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            "R": 18.0,
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            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 20.0,
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          },
          "per_game": {
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          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.1897,
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            "BB_per_IP": 0.25862,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.51724,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10345
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.2,
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
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      "adaptive_parameters": {
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      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 8.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.6154,
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      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.2,
          "form": 4.2,
          "final": 4.2,
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.431,
          "final": 2.2101,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
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        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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          "form": 2.994,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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          "form": 0.612,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.6884,
          "final": 4.6884,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.463,
          "final": 1.463,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 38.2,
        "ER": 18,
        "H": 48,
        "BB": 10,
        "SO": 20,
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        "games_pitched": 8,
        "quality_starts": 1,
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        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 8,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 8,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-17T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9725500003362969,
    "stat_evolution": [
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        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
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          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
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        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 8.0,
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          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.6154,
          "prior_weight": 0.3846
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      },
      {
        "step": "starter_quality_floor",
        "description": "Weak starter floor restored expected damage from recent form instead of assigning it to zero-inning bullpen rows.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.2,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 4,
          "predicted_BB": 0,
          "predicted_SO": 11,
          "predicted_HR": 2
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "674003",
      "player_name": "Cody Bradford",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "TEX",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
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          "stats": {
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            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
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        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_quality_floor",
          "description": "Weak starter floor restored expected damage from recent form instead of assigning it to zero-inning bullpen rows.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
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            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
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              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.3333,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 11.0,
              "after": 11.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
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            "biggest_boost": {
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            },
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.6667,
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              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
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            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
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            "predicted_SO": 11.0
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          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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              "percent_delta": null,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 11.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          },
          {
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            "delta": -0.4667,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 11.0,
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        ],
        "summary": {
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          "biggest_boost": {
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          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            "after": 4.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.1,
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            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "TEX",
        "games": 157,
        "wins": 78,
        "losses": 79,
        "win_pct": 0.4968,
        "runs_scored": 656.0,
        "runs_allowed": 693.0,
        "run_differential": -37.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2357,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1783,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.414,
        "offense_index": 0.9328,
        "defense_index": 1.0148,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2,
          "run_differential": 4.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0033
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "NYM",
        "games": 157,
        "wins": 72,
        "losses": 85,
        "win_pct": 0.4586,
        "runs_scored": 674.0,
        "runs_allowed": 712.0,
        "run_differential": -38.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.242,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.293,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.535,
        "offense_index": 0.9584,
        "defense_index": 0.9877,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.9,
          "run_differential": 4.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0999
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.1032,
        "offense_edge": -0.0672,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0416,
        "defense_strength": 0.0148,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0123,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0062,
        "run_prevention": 0.9867,
        "strikeout": 1.0064
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "674003",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "674003",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 150.0,
            "k_percent": 11.8,
            "bb_percent": 5.9,
            "woba": 0.354,
            "xwoba": 0.345,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 9.5,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.5393,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.3216,
            "whiff_percent": 17.4,
            "swing_percent": 49.5
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.3115,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5964,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8957,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.6378,
            "command_and_miss": -0.8743,
            "regression_edge": 0.2571,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.9571,
            "barrel_edge": -0.5111,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.1286,
            "whiff_edge": -1.1,
            "bb_edge": 0.8,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.28
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "674003",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 82,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 82,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 84.66333718879456,
              "release_spin_rate": 1904.8000427733539,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 82,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 84.66333718879456,
                "release_spin_rate": 1904.8000427733539,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 84.6633,
              "release_spin_rate": 1904.8,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.28,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -2.0,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.3487,
          "sample_weight": 0.6,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0296,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.939,
          "walk_factor": 0.9616,
          "homer_factor": 1.0387,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.009,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "674003",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0178,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 1.0178,
            "adjusted": 7
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.977,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0232,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9634,
            "adjusted": 2
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.2,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 11,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 18,
      "Pitches": 83,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 8 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260923_NYM@TEX.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260923

20260923_SD@LAD

away

Robbie Ray

True

5.0

3.1

-5

-2

5/7

2/1

5/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.603696098562628,
      "WHIP": 1.3305954825462012,
      "IP": 162.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 30,
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    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
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      "effective_weights": {
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      "shrinkage": {
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          },
          "per_game": {
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        },
        "last_10": {
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          },
          "per_game": {
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        },
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          "per_game": {
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            "SO_per_IP": 0.8501,
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      "blend_segments": {},
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    "model_form_blend_trace": {
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      "adaptive_parameters": {
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "predicted_BB": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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        "predicted_WHIP": {
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        "hot_streak": false,
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      "pitching": {
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      "fielding": {
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      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-16T00:00:00"
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "role": "pitcher",
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      "team": "SD",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
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        {
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          "step": "current_json_final",
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "changed_metrics": [
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
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        "win_pct": 0.5541,
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        "run_differential_per_game": 0.2166,
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        "available": true,
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      "opponent": {
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        "games": 157,
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        "losses": 60,
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        "runs_scored": 787.0,
        "runs_allowed": 587.0,
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        "run_differential_per_game": 1.2739,
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          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.6,
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      "edges": {
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      "player_factors": {
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        "strikeout": 0.9861
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "592662",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "592662",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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          "league_medians": {
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          "components": {
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            "hard_hit_edge": -0.0286,
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          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "592662",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 89,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 89,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.44381407397167,
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              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
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              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
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            "pitch_mix": [
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                "pitches": 89,
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                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
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                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.4438,
              "release_spin_rate": 2131.4937,
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              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
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            "components": {
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              "velocity_edge": -0.5679,
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              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.3059,
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          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_id": "592662",
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.026,
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          "predicted_H": {
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          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
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          "predicted_HR": {
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
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      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
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      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 97,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
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  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was -2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260923_SD@LAD.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260923

20260923_SD@LAD

home

Yoshinobu Yamamoto

True

6.2

6.0

-2

-1

6/5

2/1

8/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "ERA": 2.5139664804469275,
      "WHIP": 0.8659217877094972,
      "IP": 179.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 27,
      "role_avg_IP": 6.63,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.733,
      "last_start_IP": 7.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.6337,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9461,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0406,
      "walk_factor": 0.938,
      "homer_factor": 0.9395,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 26.1,
      "bb_percent": 6.0,
      "woba": 0.241,
      "xwoba": 0.266,
      "barrel_percent": 6.6,
      "hard_hit_percent": 36.0,
      "whiff_percent": 28.0
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 6,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 27.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
        "prior_weight": 0.1562
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "808967",
      "report_date": "20260923",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 27,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 33.2,
            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 8.0,
            "H": 18.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 42.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 126.0,
            "Pitches": 486.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.2,
            "ER": 1.6,
            "R": 1.6,
            "H": 3.6,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 8.4,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 25.2,
            "Pitches": 97.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.1386,
            "WHIP": 0.7426,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.23762,
            "H_per_IP": 0.53465,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.20792,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.24752,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11881
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 68.1,
            "ER": 15.0,
            "R": 15.0,
            "H": 38.0,
            "BB": 16.0,
            "SO": 72.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 257.0,
            "Pitches": 988.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.2,
            "ER": 1.5,
            "R": 1.5,
            "H": 3.8,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 7.2,
            "HR": 0.7,
            "BF": 25.7,
            "Pitches": 98.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.9756,
            "WHIP": 0.7902,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.21951,
            "H_per_IP": 0.5561,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.23415,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.05366,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10244
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 27,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 179.0,
            "ER": 50.0,
            "R": 51.0,
            "H": 114.0,
            "BB": 41.0,
            "SO": 178.0,
            "HR": 19.0,
            "BF": 682.0,
            "Pitches": 2646.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.2,
            "ER": 1.8519,
            "R": 1.8889,
            "H": 4.2222,
            "BB": 1.5185,
            "SO": 6.5926,
            "HR": 0.7037,
            "BF": 25.2593,
            "Pitches": 98.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.514,
            "WHIP": 0.8659,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.27933,
            "H_per_IP": 0.63687,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.22905,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.99441,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10615
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.2,
        "predicted_ER": 1.879,
        "predicted_H": 4.186,
        "predicted_BB": 1.637,
        "predicted_SO": 7.327,
        "predicted_HR": 0.776,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.5362,
        "predicted_WHIP": 0.8734
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
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      "form_weight": 0.584,
      "form_reliability": 0.8438,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
        "prior_weight": 0.1562
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      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.2,
          "form": 6.2,
          "final": 6.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 1.879,
          "final": 2.7613,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
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          "form": 4.186,
          "final": 4.9406,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.637,
          "final": 1.788,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 7.327,
          "final": 6.359,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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          "form": 0.776,
          "final": 0.8692,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.5362,
          "final": 2.5362,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 0.8734,
          "final": 0.8734,
          "source": "form_only"
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 68.1,
        "ER": 15,
        "H": 38,
        "BB": 16,
        "SO": 72,
        "HR": 7,
        "ERA": 1.9756097560975612,
        "WHIP": 0.7902439024390244,
        "K9": 9.482926829268294,
        "HR9": 0.9219512195121952,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 8,
        "dominant_form": true,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-15T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.7057259885616964,
    "stat_evolution": [
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        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 6.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
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          "sample_size": 27.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8438,
          "prior_weight": 0.1562
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      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.2,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 6,
          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 7,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "808967",
      "player_name": "Yoshinobu Yamamoto",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "LAD",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
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        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.2,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
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          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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            {
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            {
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            {
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          ],
          "summary": {
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            "biggest_deboost": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "changed_metrics": [
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          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
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      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
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        "win_pct": 0.6178,
        "runs_scored": 787.0,
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        "run_differential_per_game": 1.2739,
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      "opponent": {
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        "run_differential_per_game": 0.2166,
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        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1775
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      "edges": {
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        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0202,
        "defense_strength": 0.1997,
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      "player_factors": {
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        "strikeout": 1.0061
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "808967",
        "profile": {
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          "pitcher_id": "808967",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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            "bb_percent": 6.0,
            "woba": 0.241,
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            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.6,
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            "avg_best_speed": 76.2559,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8323,
            "whiff_percent": 28.0,
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            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5964,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8957,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.9849,
            "command_and_miss": 0.57,
            "regression_edge": -0.7143,
            "xwoba_edge": 1.3,
            "barrel_edge": 0.1333,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.2714,
            "whiff_edge": 0.4143,
            "bb_edge": 0.775,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0672
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "808967",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 98,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 98,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 91.06397663750431,
              "release_spin_rate": 2177.495703419384,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 98,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 91.06397663750431,
                "release_spin_rate": 2177.495703419384,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 91.064,
              "release_spin_rate": 2177.4957,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0672,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.4801,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.6337,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9461,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0406,
          "walk_factor": 0.938,
          "homer_factor": 0.9395,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.025,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "808967",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9461,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9461,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.938,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9395,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 8.0,
            "factor": 1.0406,
            "adjusted": 8
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.2,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 8,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 28,
      "Pitches": 122,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260923_SD@LAD.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260923

20260923_STL@PIT

away

Matthew Liberatore

True

5.0

5.2

-2

6/6

1/0

4/6

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 5.363839285714286,
      "WHIP": 1.4866071428571428,
      "IP": 149.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 30,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.978,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.867,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.3828,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0325,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9966,
      "walk_factor": 0.986,
      "homer_factor": 1.0837,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 22.7,
      "bb_percent": 8.4,
      "woba": 0.357,
      "xwoba": 0.341,
      "barrel_percent": 9.2,
      "hard_hit_percent": 41.9,
      "whiff_percent": 23.7
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 850,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 30.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8571,
        "prior_weight": 0.1429
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "669461",
      "report_date": "20260923",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 30,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 24.1,
            "ER": 19.0,
            "R": 20.0,
            "H": 31.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 23.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 111.0,
            "Pitches": 420.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 3.8,
            "R": 4.0,
            "H": 6.2,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 4.6,
            "HR": 1.2,
            "BF": 22.2,
            "Pitches": 84.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 7.0274,
            "WHIP": 1.726,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.78082,
            "H_per_IP": 1.27397,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.45205,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.94521,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.24658
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 50.1,
            "ER": 32.0,
            "R": 33.0,
            "H": 55.0,
            "BB": 17.0,
            "SO": 53.0,
            "HR": 9.0,
            "BF": 215.0,
            "Pitches": 861.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 3.2,
            "R": 3.3,
            "H": 5.5,
            "BB": 1.7,
            "SO": 5.3,
            "HR": 0.9,
            "BF": 21.5,
            "Pitches": 86.1
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.7219,
            "WHIP": 1.4305,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.63576,
            "H_per_IP": 1.09272,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.33775,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.05298,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.17881
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 30,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 149.1,
            "ER": 89.0,
            "R": 95.0,
            "H": 167.0,
            "BB": 55.0,
            "SO": 148.0,
            "HR": 27.0,
            "BF": 652.0,
            "Pitches": 2529.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.9667,
            "R": 3.1667,
            "H": 5.5667,
            "BB": 1.8333,
            "SO": 4.9333,
            "HR": 0.9,
            "BF": 21.7333,
            "Pitches": 84.3
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.3638,
            "WHIP": 1.4866,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.59598,
            "H_per_IP": 1.1183,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.3683,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.99107,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1808
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 3.334,
        "predicted_H": 5.755,
        "predicted_BB": 1.963,
        "predicted_SO": 4.921,
        "predicted_HR": 1.005,
        "predicted_ERA": 6.0018,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.5436
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4104,
      "form_weight": 0.5896,
      "form_reliability": 0.8571,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_size": 30.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8571,
        "prior_weight": 0.1429
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 3.334,
          "final": 3.1969,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 5.755,
          "final": 5.8555,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.963,
          "final": 1.5678,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 4.921,
          "final": 4.543,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.005,
          "final": 1.0029,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 6.0018,
          "final": 6.0018,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.5436,
          "final": 1.5436,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 50.1,
        "ER": 32,
        "H": 55,
        "BB": 17,
        "SO": 53,
        "HR": 9,
        "ERA": 5.721854304635762,
        "WHIP": 1.4304635761589406,
        "K9": 9.47682119205298,
        "HR9": 1.6092715231788082,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-16T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.143183992115242,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 6.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 30.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8571,
          "prior_weight": 0.1429
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "669461",
      "player_name": "Matthew Liberatore",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "STL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 6.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
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            "delta": 0.0,
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        ],
        "summary": {
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          "biggest_boost": null,
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          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "STL",
        "games": 157,
        "wins": 76,
        "losses": 81,
        "win_pct": 0.4841,
        "runs_scored": 704.0,
        "runs_allowed": 729.0,
        "run_differential": -25.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.1592,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4841,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6433,
        "offense_index": 1.0009,
        "defense_index": 0.9649,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9,
          "run_differential": -13.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0681
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "PIT",
        "games": 157,
        "wins": 80,
        "losses": 77,
        "win_pct": 0.5096,
        "runs_scored": 750.0,
        "runs_allowed": 719.0,
        "run_differential": 31.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1975,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.7771,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5796,
        "offense_index": 1.0663,
        "defense_index": 0.9783,
        "current_streak": "W5",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6,
          "run_differential": -5.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0674
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.1355,
        "offense_edge": 0.0009,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0663,
        "defense_strength": -0.0351,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0217,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9909,
        "run_prevention": 1.0209,
        "strikeout": 0.9906
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "669461",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "669461",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 627.0,
            "k_percent": 22.7,
            "bb_percent": 8.4,
            "woba": 0.357,
            "xwoba": 0.341,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 40.1,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 9.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 41.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.4709,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.5677,
            "whiff_percent": 23.7,
            "swing_percent": 46.2
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.3115,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5964,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8957,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.7627,
            "command_and_miss": 0.0164,
            "regression_edge": 0.4571,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.8429,
            "barrel_edge": -0.4444,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.5714,
            "whiff_edge": -0.2,
            "bb_edge": 0.175,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0715
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "669461",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 88,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 88,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.58620610763555,
              "release_spin_rate": 2399.3056061920533,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 88,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.58620610763555,
                "release_spin_rate": 2399.3056061920533,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.5862,
              "release_spin_rate": 2399.3056,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0715,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.511,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.3828,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0325,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9966,
          "walk_factor": 0.986,
          "homer_factor": 1.0837,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.016,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "669461",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0325,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0325,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.986,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0837,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9966,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 85,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260923_STL@PIT.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260923

20260923_STL@PIT

home

Lake Bachar

True

5.0

1.2

-10

-2

2/1

3/1

5/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.024,
      "WHIP": 1.068,
      "IP": 83.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 50,
      "role_avg_IP": 2.121,
      "recent_avg_IP": 1.867,
      "last_start_IP": 1.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.3229,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9726,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0451,
      "walk_factor": 1.02,
      "homer_factor": 0.9734,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 25.2,
      "bb_percent": 10.1,
      "woba": 0.288,
      "xwoba": 0.29,
      "barrel_percent": 7.8,
      "hard_hit_percent": 34.6,
      "whiff_percent": 29.7
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 143,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.2,
      "season_IP": 83.1,
      "season_ERA": 3.024,
      "season_WHIP": 1.068,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 16.977,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7725,
        "prior_weight": 0.2275
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "669199",
      "report_date": "20260923",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 50,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 8.0,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 8.0,
            "BB": 5.0,
            "SO": 10.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 37.0,
            "Pitches": 149.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.2,
            "ER": 0.4,
            "R": 0.4,
            "H": 1.6,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 2.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 7.4,
            "Pitches": 29.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.25,
            "WHIP": 1.625,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.25,
            "H_per_IP": 1.0,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.625,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.25,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 17.2,
            "ER": 4.0,
            "R": 4.0,
            "H": 12.0,
            "BB": 12.0,
            "SO": 19.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 75.0,
            "Pitches": 312.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.2,
            "ER": 0.4,
            "R": 0.4,
            "H": 1.2,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 1.9,
            "HR": 0.1,
            "BF": 7.5,
            "Pitches": 31.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.0377,
            "WHIP": 1.3585,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.22642,
            "H_per_IP": 0.67925,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.67925,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.07547,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0566
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 50,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 83.1,
            "ER": 28.0,
            "R": 30.0,
            "H": 56.0,
            "BB": 33.0,
            "SO": 87.0,
            "HR": 12.0,
            "BF": 339.0,
            "Pitches": 1363.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.2,
            "ER": 0.56,
            "R": 0.6,
            "H": 1.12,
            "BB": 0.66,
            "SO": 1.74,
            "HR": 0.24,
            "BF": 6.78,
            "Pitches": 27.26
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.024,
            "WHIP": 1.068,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.336,
            "H_per_IP": 0.672,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.396,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.044,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.144
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 2.2,
        "predicted_ER": 0.814,
        "predicted_H": 2.211,
        "predicted_BB": 1.411,
        "predicted_SO": 2.834,
        "predicted_HR": 0.184,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.8438,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.4059
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4461,
      "form_weight": 0.5539,
      "form_reliability": 0.7725,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 16.977,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7725,
        "prior_weight": 0.2275
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 2.2,
          "final": 4.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 0.814,
          "final": 2.2353,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.211,
          "final": 3.0091,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 1.411,
          "final": 2.1199,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 2.834,
          "final": 3.8003,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 0.184,
          "final": 0.9942,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.8438,
          "final": 2.8438,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.4059,
          "final": 1.4059,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 17.2,
        "ER": 4,
        "H": 12,
        "BB": 12,
        "SO": 19,
        "HR": 1,
        "ERA": 2.0377358490566038,
        "WHIP": 1.3584905660377358,
        "K9": 9.679245283018867,
        "HR9": 0.5094339622641509,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-20T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8402639427280665,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 16.977,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7725,
          "prior_weight": 0.2275
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 4,
          "predicted_H": 4,
          "predicted_BB": 3,
          "predicted_SO": 5,
          "predicted_HR": 2
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 4,
          "predicted_BB": 3,
          "predicted_SO": 5,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "669199",
      "player_name": "Lake Bachar",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "PIT",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": -0.6667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1176,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
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            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": -0.6667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1176,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": -2.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.5,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.5,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 2,
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            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": -2.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.5,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 4,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": -2.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.5,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 1,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": -2.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.5,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": -2.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.5,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": -2.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.5,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.5,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": -0.6667,
            "percent_delta": -0.1177,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 4,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 4,
          "better_metrics": 3,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": -2.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.5,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "PIT",
        "games": 157,
        "wins": 80,
        "losses": 77,
        "win_pct": 0.5096,
        "runs_scored": 750.0,
        "runs_allowed": 719.0,
        "run_differential": 31.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1975,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.7771,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5796,
        "offense_index": 1.0663,
        "defense_index": 0.9783,
        "current_streak": "W5",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6,
          "run_differential": -5.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0674
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "STL",
        "games": 157,
        "wins": 76,
        "losses": 81,
        "win_pct": 0.4841,
        "runs_scored": 704.0,
        "runs_allowed": 729.0,
        "run_differential": -25.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.1592,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4841,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6433,
        "offense_index": 1.0009,
        "defense_index": 0.9649,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9,
          "run_differential": -13.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0681
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.1355,
        "offense_edge": 0.0663,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0009,
        "defense_strength": -0.0217,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0351,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0047,
        "run_prevention": 0.9955,
        "strikeout": 1.004
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "669199",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "669199",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 325.0,
            "k_percent": 25.2,
            "bb_percent": 10.1,
            "woba": 0.288,
            "xwoba": 0.29,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 30.0,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.8,
            "hard_hit_percent": 34.6,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.6165,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.6408,
            "whiff_percent": 29.7,
            "swing_percent": 45.1
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.3115,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5964,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8957,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.4054,
            "command_and_miss": 0.3921,
            "regression_edge": -0.0571,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.6143,
            "barrel_edge": -0.1333,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.4714,
            "whiff_edge": 0.6571,
            "bb_edge": -0.25,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.005
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "669199",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 31,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 31,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.77481249512137,
              "release_spin_rate": 2697.8801239344625,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 31,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.77481249512137,
                "release_spin_rate": 2697.8801239344625,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.7748,
              "release_spin_rate": 2697.8801,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.005,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.0355,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.3229,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9726,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0451,
          "walk_factor": 1.02,
          "homer_factor": 0.9734,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.002,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "669199",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9726,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9726,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.02,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9734,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0451,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 93,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least three innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -10 outs from the projected workload."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260923_STL@PIT.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260923

20260923_TB@NYY

away

Mason Englert

True

5.0

3.2

-4

9/9

2/1

8/6

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "ERA": 4.542056074766355,
      "WHIP": 1.4299065420560748,
      "IP": 35.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 14,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.778,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.778,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.3162,
      "sample_weight": 0.512,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0269,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9921,
      "walk_factor": 0.959,
      "homer_factor": 1.0928,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 20.4,
      "bb_percent": 5.1,
      "woba": 0.37,
      "xwoba": 0.362,
      "barrel_percent": 14.9,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.1,
      "whiff_percent": 23.9
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 565,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 7.266,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.5924,
        "prior_weight": 0.4076
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "669438",
      "report_date": "20260923",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 14,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 23.0,
            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 8.0,
            "H": 24.0,
            "BB": 4.0,
            "SO": 22.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 97.0,
            "Pitches": 382.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 1.6,
            "R": 1.6,
            "H": 4.8,
            "BB": 0.8,
            "SO": 4.4,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 19.4,
            "Pitches": 76.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.1304,
            "WHIP": 1.2174,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.34783,
            "H_per_IP": 1.04348,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.17391,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.95652,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.21739
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 29.0,
            "ER": 11.0,
            "R": 11.0,
            "H": 31.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 28.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 124.0,
            "Pitches": 480.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.0,
            "ER": 1.1,
            "R": 1.1,
            "H": 3.1,
            "BB": 0.7,
            "SO": 2.8,
            "HR": 0.7,
            "BF": 12.4,
            "Pitches": 48.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.4138,
            "WHIP": 1.3103,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.37931,
            "H_per_IP": 1.06897,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.24138,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.96552,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.24138
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 14,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 35.2,
            "ER": 18.0,
            "R": 19.0,
            "H": 43.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 32.0,
            "HR": 9.0,
            "BF": 157.0,
            "Pitches": 596.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 2.2,
            "ER": 1.2857,
            "R": 1.3571,
            "H": 3.0714,
            "BB": 0.5714,
            "SO": 2.2857,
            "HR": 0.6429,
            "BF": 11.2143,
            "Pitches": 42.5714
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.5421,
            "WHIP": 1.4299,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.50467,
            "H_per_IP": 1.20561,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.2243,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.8972,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.25234
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.1,
        "predicted_ER": 1.852,
        "predicted_H": 4.398,
        "predicted_BB": 1.167,
        "predicted_SO": 3.982,
        "predicted_HR": 0.837,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.9501,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3187
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.5222,
      "form_weight": 0.4778,
      "form_reliability": 0.5924,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 7.266,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.5924,
        "prior_weight": 0.4076
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.1,
          "final": 4.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 1.852,
          "final": 2.4515,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 9.0,
          "form": 4.398,
          "final": 6.8012,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.167,
          "final": 1.602,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 8.0,
          "form": 3.982,
          "final": 6.0802,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.837,
          "final": 0.3999,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.9501,
          "final": 3.9501,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3187,
          "final": 1.3187,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 29.0,
        "ER": 11,
        "H": 31,
        "BB": 7,
        "SO": 28,
        "HR": 7,
        "ERA": 3.413793103448276,
        "WHIP": 1.3103448275862069,
        "K9": 8.689655172413794,
        "HR9": 2.1724137931034484,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-07-17T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8852801017500417,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 9.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 8.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 7.266,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.5924,
          "prior_weight": 0.4076
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "669438",
      "player_name": "Mason Englert",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "TB",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
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          "stats": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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            },
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              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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            "metric": "predicted_BB",
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          },
          {
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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          },
          {
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          },
          {
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          {
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        ],
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          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
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        "games": 157,
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        "losses": 61,
        "win_pct": 0.6115,
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        "runs_allowed": 627.0,
        "run_differential": 86.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.5478,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5414,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.9936,
        "offense_index": 1.0137,
        "defense_index": 1.1218,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 8,
          "losses": 2,
          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.0,
          "run_differential": 28.0
        },
        "available": true,
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      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "NYY",
        "games": 157,
        "wins": 90,
        "losses": 67,
        "win_pct": 0.5732,
        "runs_scored": 716.0,
        "runs_allowed": 582.0,
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        "run_differential_per_game": 0.8535,
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        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.707,
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          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2,
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        },
        "available": true,
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      "edges": {
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        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.3
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      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0069,
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      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "669438",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "669438",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 128.0,
            "k_percent": 20.4,
            "bb_percent": 5.1,
            "woba": 0.37,
            "xwoba": 0.362,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 36.2,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 14.9,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.1,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.0977,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.209,
            "whiff_percent": 23.9,
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          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
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            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.3115,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5964,
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            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
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          "components": {
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            "command_and_miss": 0.0436,
            "regression_edge": 0.2286,
            "xwoba_edge": -1.4429,
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            "hard_hit_edge": -0.0286,
            "whiff_edge": -0.1714,
            "bb_edge": 1.0,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.1879
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "669438",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 68,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 68,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 86.50786631271794,
              "release_spin_rate": 2291.8135563532314,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 68,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 86.50786631271794,
                "release_spin_rate": 2291.8135563532314,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 86.5079,
              "release_spin_rate": 2291.8136,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
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            "components": {
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              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.3162,
          "sample_weight": 0.512,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0269,
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          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_id": "669438",
            "espn_rank": null
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
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            "factor": 1.0138,
            "adjusted": 3
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          "predicted_H": {
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            "factor": 1.0138,
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          "predicted_BB": {
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            "factor": 0.979,
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          "predicted_HR": {
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            "factor": 1.0475,
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    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
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      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
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      "Pitches": 105,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 5",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +5; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was +4."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260923_TB@NYY.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260923

20260923_TB@NYY

home

Gerrit Cole

True

5.2

2/3

5/3

5/8

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
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      "k_percent": 24.7,
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      "hard_hit_percent": 45.2,
      "whiff_percent": 21.3
    },
    "espn_rank": {
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      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
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      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
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          "totals": {
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            "SO_per_IP": 0.80233,
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        },
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          "totals": {
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            "Pitches": 880.0
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          "per_game": {
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          },
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            "SO_per_IP": 0.96067,
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        },
        "season": {
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            "Pitches": 1846.0
          },
          "per_game": {
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
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        "predicted_ERA": 4.3524,
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
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      "adaptive_parameters": {
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
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        },
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        },
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        },
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
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          "final": 1.1976,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
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        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
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        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
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        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
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        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
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        "H": 56,
        "BB": 10,
        "SO": 57,
        "HR": 10,
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        "K9": 8.646067415730338,
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        "games_pitched": 10,
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        "dominant_form": false,
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      },
      "fielding": {
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        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-18T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8669441305183969,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 5.0,
          "predicted_SO": 3.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 21.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8077,
          "prior_weight": 0.1923
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.2,
          "predicted_ER": 1,
          "predicted_H": 2,
          "predicted_BB": 5,
          "predicted_SO": 5,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "543037",
      "player_name": "Gerrit Cole",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "NYY",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 5.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 5.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 2.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.6667,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 2.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.6667,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 5.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_R": 1.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.2,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 2.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.6667,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 2,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 1,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 2.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.6667,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "NYY",
        "games": 157,
        "wins": 90,
        "losses": 67,
        "win_pct": 0.5732,
        "runs_scored": 716.0,
        "runs_allowed": 582.0,
        "run_differential": 134.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.8535,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5605,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.707,
        "offense_index": 1.0179,
        "defense_index": 1.2086,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2,
          "run_differential": 1.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.167
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "TB",
        "games": 157,
        "wins": 96,
        "losses": 61,
        "win_pct": 0.6115,
        "runs_scored": 713.0,
        "runs_allowed": 627.0,
        "run_differential": 86.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.5478,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5414,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.9936,
        "offense_index": 1.0137,
        "defense_index": 1.1218,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 8,
          "losses": 2,
          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.0,
          "run_differential": 28.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.267
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.1,
        "offense_edge": 0.0179,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0137,
        "defense_strength": 0.2086,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1218,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.3
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0017,
        "run_prevention": 0.9863,
        "strikeout": 0.9959
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "543037",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "543037",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 470.0,
            "k_percent": 24.7,
            "bb_percent": 4.4,
            "woba": 0.303,
            "xwoba": 0.302,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 36.5,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.7,
            "hard_hit_percent": 45.2,
            "avg_best_speed": 81.5573,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.569,
            "whiff_percent": 21.3,
            "swing_percent": 49.5
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.3115,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5964,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8957,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.1134,
            "command_and_miss": 0.225,
            "regression_edge": 0.0286,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.2714,
            "barrel_edge": -0.3333,
            "hard_hit_edge": -1.0429,
            "whiff_edge": -0.5429,
            "bb_edge": 1.175,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.1217
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "543037",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 84,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 84,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 92.03748624523112,
              "release_spin_rate": 2372.6649530903105,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 84,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 92.03748624523112,
                "release_spin_rate": 2372.6649530903105,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 92.0375,
              "release_spin_rate": 2372.665,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.1217,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.8695,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0076,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9994,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9943,
          "walk_factor": 0.906,
          "homer_factor": 1.0602,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.001,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "543037",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9994,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 0.9994,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.906,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0602,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9943,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 5,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 25,
      "Pitches": 108,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260923_TB@NYY.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260923

20260923_TOR@BAL

away

Max Scherzer

CJ Van Eyk

False

5.0

7/4

1/0

3/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 6.068807339449541,
      "WHIP": 1.3623853211009174,
      "IP": 72.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 16,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.542,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.533,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.2219,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0189,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9451,
      "walk_factor": 1.014,
      "homer_factor": 1.0169,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 17.1,
      "bb_percent": 9.8,
      "woba": 0.331,
      "xwoba": 0.32,
      "barrel_percent": 8.8,
      "hard_hit_percent": 34.6,
      "whiff_percent": 20.3
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 775,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 16.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7619,
        "prior_weight": 0.2381
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "453286",
      "report_date": "20260923",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 16,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 27.2,
            "ER": 12.0,
            "R": 12.0,
            "H": 20.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 22.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 113.0,
            "Pitches": 421.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 4.0,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 4.4,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 22.6,
            "Pitches": 84.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.9036,
            "WHIP": 1.1205,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.43373,
            "H_per_IP": 0.72289,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.39759,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.79518,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07229
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 50.2,
            "ER": 24.0,
            "R": 24.0,
            "H": 41.0,
            "BB": 20.0,
            "SO": 40.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 213.0,
            "Pitches": 829.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 4.1,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 4.0,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 21.3,
            "Pitches": 82.9
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.2632,
            "WHIP": 1.2039,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.47368,
            "H_per_IP": 0.80921,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.39474,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.78947,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09868
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 16,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 72.2,
            "ER": 49.0,
            "R": 49.0,
            "H": 68.0,
            "BB": 31.0,
            "SO": 54.0,
            "HR": 14.0,
            "BF": 315.0,
            "Pitches": 1254.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 3.0625,
            "R": 3.0625,
            "H": 4.25,
            "BB": 1.9375,
            "SO": 3.375,
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            "BF": 19.6875,
            "Pitches": 78.375
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.0688,
            "WHIP": 1.3624,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.67431,
            "H_per_IP": 0.93578,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.42661,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.74312,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.19266
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.584,
        "predicted_H": 4.347,
        "predicted_BB": 2.052,
        "predicted_SO": 4.243,
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        "predicted_ERA": 4.4921,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2359
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4506,
      "form_weight": 0.5494,
      "form_reliability": 0.7619,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 16.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7619,
        "prior_weight": 0.2381
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.584,
          "final": 2.7714,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 4.347,
          "final": 5.5424,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.052,
          "final": 1.578,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 4.243,
          "final": 3.6829,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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          "form": 0.599,
          "final": 0.7797,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.4921,
          "final": 4.4921,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2359,
          "final": 1.2359,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 50.2,
        "ER": 24,
        "H": 41,
        "BB": 20,
        "SO": 40,
        "HR": 5,
        "ERA": 4.2631578947368425,
        "WHIP": 1.2039473684210527,
        "K9": 7.105263157894737,
        "HR9": 0.8881578947368421,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 2,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-16T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9734177408081662,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 7.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 3.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 16.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7619,
          "prior_weight": 0.2381
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "453286",
      "player_name": "Max Scherzer",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "TOR",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 7.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 7.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
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          }
        ],
        "summary": {
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          "biggest_boost": null,
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          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "TOR",
        "games": 157,
        "wins": 77,
        "losses": 80,
        "win_pct": 0.4904,
        "runs_scored": 632.0,
        "runs_allowed": 675.0,
        "run_differential": -43.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2739,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0255,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2994,
        "offense_index": 0.8949,
        "defense_index": 1.0463,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7,
          "run_differential": -4.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0766
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "BAL",
        "games": 157,
        "wins": 76,
        "losses": 81,
        "win_pct": 0.4841,
        "runs_scored": 697.0,
        "runs_allowed": 727.0,
        "run_differential": -30.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.1911,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4395,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6306,
        "offense_index": 0.9869,
        "defense_index": 0.9715,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.9,
          "run_differential": -3.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0369
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0397,
        "offense_edge": -0.1051,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0131,
        "defense_strength": 0.0463,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0285,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0003,
        "run_prevention": 0.9953,
        "strikeout": 0.9999
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "453286",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "453286",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 294.0,
            "k_percent": 17.1,
            "bb_percent": 9.8,
            "woba": 0.331,
            "xwoba": 0.32,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.8,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.8,
            "hard_hit_percent": 34.6,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.4694,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.3859,
            "whiff_percent": 20.3,
            "swing_percent": 49.5
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.3115,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5964,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8957,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.1622,
            "command_and_miss": -0.5836,
            "regression_edge": 0.3143,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.2429,
            "barrel_edge": -0.3556,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.4714,
            "whiff_edge": -0.6857,
            "bb_edge": -0.175,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.1349
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "453286",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 84,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 84,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 87.45516823346536,
              "release_spin_rate": 2266.2043740371455,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 84,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 87.45516823346536,
                "release_spin_rate": 2266.2043740371455,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.4552,
              "release_spin_rate": 2266.2044,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1349,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.9634,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.2219,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0189,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9451,
          "walk_factor": 1.014,
          "homer_factor": 1.0169,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.011,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "453286",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0189,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0189,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.014,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0169,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9451,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 7,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 3,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 88,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "WRONG_STARTER",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Wrong starter identity",
      "detail": "The projected MLB player ID differs from the official starter ID; performance errors are not attributable to the projected player."
    },
    {
      "code": "FALSE_CONFIRMATION",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Confirmed flag was false assurance",
      "detail": "The server marked this starter confirmed even though a different player started."
    },
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260923_TOR@BAL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260923

20260923_TOR@BAL

home

Chris Bassitt

Trey Gibson

False

5.0

6.2

-3

6/3

0/2

8/7

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.639175257731959,
      "WHIP": 1.5463917525773196,
      "IP": 97.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 19,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.098,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.933,
      "last_start_IP": 6.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.3069,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0261,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9486,
      "walk_factor": 0.986,
      "homer_factor": 0.9805,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 16.4,
      "bb_percent": 8.4,
      "woba": 0.346,
      "xwoba": 0.339,
      "barrel_percent": 5.0,
      "hard_hit_percent": 37.2,
      "whiff_percent": 21.6
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 233,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 19.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7917,
        "prior_weight": 0.2083
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "605135",
      "report_date": "20260923",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 19,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 29.2,
            "ER": 12.0,
            "R": 12.0,
            "H": 30.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 26.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 129.0,
            "Pitches": 479.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 6.0,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 5.2,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 25.8,
            "Pitches": 95.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.6404,
            "WHIP": 1.382,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.40449,
            "H_per_IP": 1.01124,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.37079,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.8764,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10112
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 54.0,
            "ER": 24.0,
            "R": 24.0,
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                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 85.3723,
              "release_spin_rate": 2180.5493,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.2515,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.7965,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.3069,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0261,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9486,
          "walk_factor": 0.986,
          "homer_factor": 0.9805,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.007,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "605135",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0261,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0261,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.986,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9805,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9486,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 8,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 92,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "WRONG_STARTER",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Wrong starter identity",
      "detail": "The projected MLB player ID differs from the official starter ID; performance errors are not attributable to the projected player."
    },
    {
      "code": "FALSE_CONFIRMATION",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Confirmed flag was false assurance",
      "detail": "The server marked this starter confirmed even though a different player started."
    },
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "MISSED_SHUTDOWN",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Model missed a shutdown outing",
      "detail": "The pitcher allowed zero earned runs after a projection of 3 ER."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260923_TOR@BAL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260923

20260923_WAS@DET

away

Richard Lovelady

True

3.2

1.1

-7

-2

3/1

0/1

8/0

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.857142857142857,
      "WHIP": 1.836734693877551,
      "IP": 32.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 36,
      "role_avg_IP": 1.467,
      "recent_avg_IP": 1.467,
      "last_start_IP": 1.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.213,
      "sample_weight": 0.564,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0181,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9832,
      "walk_factor": 1.0462,
      "homer_factor": 0.9785,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 18.9,
      "bb_percent": 13.2,
      "woba": 0.373,
      "xwoba": 0.352,
      "barrel_percent": 5.8,
      "hard_hit_percent": 29.5,
      "whiff_percent": 22.9
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 424,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 6.655,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.571,
        "prior_weight": 0.429
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "663992",
      "report_date": "20260923",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 36,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 3.0,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 4.0,
            "H": 6.0,
            "BB": 0.0,
            "SO": 3.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 16.0,
            "Pitches": 65.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 0.2,
            "ER": 0.4,
            "R": 0.8,
            "H": 1.2,
            "BB": 0.0,
            "SO": 0.6,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 3.2,
            "Pitches": 13.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.0,
            "WHIP": 2.0,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.66667,
            "H_per_IP": 2.0,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.0,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.0,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.33333
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 5.0,
            "R": 7.0,
            "H": 11.0,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 6.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 32.0,
            "Pitches": 125.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 0.2,
            "ER": 0.5,
            "R": 0.7,
            "H": 1.1,
            "BB": 0.2,
            "SO": 0.6,
            "HR": 0.1,
            "BF": 3.2,
            "Pitches": 12.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 7.9412,
            "WHIP": 2.2941,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.88235,
            "H_per_IP": 1.94118,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.35294,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.05882,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.17647
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 36,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 32.2,
            "ER": 14.0,
            "R": 18.0,
            "H": 39.0,
            "BB": 21.0,
            "SO": 30.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 159.0,
            "Pitches": 592.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.0,
            "ER": 0.3889,
            "R": 0.5,
            "H": 1.0833,
            "BB": 0.5833,
            "SO": 0.8333,
            "HR": 0.1111,
            "BF": 4.4167,
            "Pitches": 16.4444
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.8571,
            "WHIP": 1.8367,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.42857,
            "H_per_IP": 1.19388,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.64286,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.91837,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12245
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 2.1,
        "predicted_ER": 1.401,
        "predicted_H": 3.323,
        "predicted_BB": 0.696,
        "predicted_SO": 2.222,
        "predicted_HR": 0.452,
        "predicted_ERA": 5.537,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.7642
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.5313,
      "form_weight": 0.4687,
      "form_reliability": 0.571,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 6.655,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.571,
        "prior_weight": 0.429
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.1,
          "form": 2.1,
          "final": 3.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.401,
          "final": 1.7192,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 3.323,
          "final": 3.1514,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.696,
          "final": 0.3262,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 8.0,
          "form": 2.222,
          "final": 5.2916,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.452,
          "final": 0.7431,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 5.537,
          "final": 5.537,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.7642,
          "final": 1.7642,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 5.2,
        "ER": 5,
        "H": 11,
        "BB": 2,
        "SO": 6,
        "HR": 1,
        "ERA": 7.941176470588236,
        "WHIP": 2.294117647058824,
        "K9": 9.529411764705884,
        "HR9": 1.5882352941176472,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": true
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-19T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0777605704898245,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 8.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 6.655,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.571,
          "prior_weight": 0.429
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 3.2,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 3,
          "predicted_BB": 0,
          "predicted_SO": 8,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "663992",
      "player_name": "Richard Lovelady",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "WAS",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 3.2,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.3333,
              "after": 3.2,
              "delta": -1.1333,
              "percent_delta": -0.2615,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.3333,
              "after": 3.2,
              "delta": -1.1333,
              "percent_delta": -0.2615,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 3.2,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 3.2,
              "after": 3.2,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.3333,
            "after": 3.2,
            "delta": -1.1333,
            "percent_delta": -0.2615,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 8.0,
            "after": 8.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.3333,
            "after": 3.2,
            "delta": -1.1333,
            "percent_delta": -0.2615,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "WAS",
        "games": 158,
        "wins": 74,
        "losses": 84,
        "win_pct": 0.4684,
        "runs_scored": 803.0,
        "runs_allowed": 796.0,
        "run_differential": 7.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0443,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.0823,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.038,
        "offense_index": 1.1298,
        "defense_index": 0.8929,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0,
          "run_differential": 7.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0486
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "DET",
        "games": 158,
        "wins": 74,
        "losses": 84,
        "win_pct": 0.4684,
        "runs_scored": 707.0,
        "runs_allowed": 634.0,
        "run_differential": 73.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.462,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4747,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0127,
        "offense_index": 0.9947,
        "defense_index": 1.121,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.9,
          "run_differential": 10.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0296
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.019,
        "offense_edge": 0.1298,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0053,
        "defense_strength": -0.1071,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.121,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9978,
        "run_prevention": 1.0089,
        "strikeout": 1.001
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "663992",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "663992",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 141.0,
            "k_percent": 18.9,
            "bb_percent": 13.2,
            "woba": 0.373,
            "xwoba": 0.352,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 35.2,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 5.8,
            "hard_hit_percent": 29.5,
            "avg_best_speed": 75.0815,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.2021,
            "whiff_percent": 22.9,
            "swing_percent": 45.8
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.3115,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5964,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8957,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.5227,
            "command_and_miss": -0.5079,
            "regression_edge": 0.6,
            "xwoba_edge": -1.1571,
            "barrel_edge": 0.3111,
            "hard_hit_edge": 1.2,
            "whiff_edge": -0.3143,
            "bb_edge": -1.025,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.16
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "663992",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 10,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 10,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 87.007013701801,
              "release_spin_rate": 2396.295259915072,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 10,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 87.007013701801,
                "release_spin_rate": 2396.295259915072,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.007,
              "release_spin_rate": 2396.2953,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.16,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.1427,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.213,
          "sample_weight": 0.564,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0181,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9832,
          "walk_factor": 1.0462,
          "homer_factor": 0.9785,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.021,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "663992",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0102,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0102,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0261,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9879,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9905,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 3.2,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 8,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 14,
      "Pitches": 67,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -7 outs from the projected workload."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260923_WAS@DET.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260923

20260923_WAS@DET

home

Framber Valdez

True

6.0

5.1

-2

2/4

4/3

7/6

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "ERA": 4.055335968379447,
      "WHIP": 1.3636363636363638,
      "IP": 168.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 30,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.622,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.0,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.2059,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0175,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9474,
      "walk_factor": 0.992,
      "homer_factor": 1.0046,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 17.5,
      "bb_percent": 8.7,
      "woba": 0.317,
      "xwoba": 0.322,
      "barrel_percent": 5.7,
      "hard_hit_percent": 41.8,
      "whiff_percent": 20.3
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 136,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 30.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8571,
        "prior_weight": 0.1429
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "664285",
      "report_date": "20260923",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 30,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 30.0,
            "ER": 9.0,
            "R": 11.0,
            "H": 26.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 18.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 123.0,
            "Pitches": 463.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 2.2,
            "H": 5.2,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 3.6,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 24.6,
            "Pitches": 92.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.7,
            "WHIP": 1.2,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.3,
            "H_per_IP": 0.86667,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.33333,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.6,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 60.1,
            "ER": 21.0,
            "R": 25.0,
            "H": 55.0,
            "BB": 26.0,
            "SO": 41.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 257.0,
            "Pitches": 944.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 2.1,
            "R": 2.5,
            "H": 5.5,
            "BB": 2.6,
            "SO": 4.1,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 25.7,
            "Pitches": 94.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.1326,
            "WHIP": 1.3425,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.34807,
            "H_per_IP": 0.9116,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.43094,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.67956,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08287
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 30,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 168.2,
            "ER": 76.0,
            "R": 85.0,
            "H": 166.0,
            "BB": 64.0,
            "SO": 129.0,
            "HR": 16.0,
            "BF": 736.0,
            "Pitches": 2681.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.5333,
            "R": 2.8333,
            "H": 5.5333,
            "BB": 2.1333,
            "SO": 4.3,
            "HR": 0.5333,
            "BF": 24.5333,
            "Pitches": 89.3667
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.0553,
            "WHIP": 1.3636,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.45059,
            "H_per_IP": 0.98419,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.37945,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.76482,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09486
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.2,
        "predicted_H": 5.447,
        "predicted_BB": 2.239,
        "predicted_SO": 4.162,
        "predicted_HR": 0.599,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.3317,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2932
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4104,
      "form_weight": 0.5896,
      "form_reliability": 0.8571,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_size": 30.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8571,
        "prior_weight": 0.1429
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      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 6.0,
          "final": 6.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.2,
          "final": 2.1179,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 5.447,
          "final": 4.0324,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.239,
          "final": 2.9617,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 4.162,
          "final": 5.3266,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.599,
          "final": 0.3532,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.3317,
          "final": 3.3317,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2932,
          "final": 1.2932,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 60.1,
        "ER": 21,
        "H": 55,
        "BB": 26,
        "SO": 41,
        "HR": 5,
        "ERA": 3.1325966850828726,
        "WHIP": 1.3425414364640884,
        "K9": 6.116022099447513,
        "HR9": 0.7458563535911602,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 6,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-17T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8496944564231705,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 4.0,
          "predicted_SO": 7.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 30.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8571,
          "prior_weight": 0.1429
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "664285",
      "player_name": "Framber Valdez",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "DET",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 4.0,
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 2.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
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            "percent_delta": null,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 7.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 0,
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          "biggest_boost": null,
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          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "DET",
        "games": 158,
        "wins": 74,
        "losses": 84,
        "win_pct": 0.4684,
        "runs_scored": 707.0,
        "runs_allowed": 634.0,
        "run_differential": 73.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.462,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4747,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0127,
        "offense_index": 0.9947,
        "defense_index": 1.121,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.9,
          "run_differential": 10.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0296
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "WAS",
        "games": 158,
        "wins": 74,
        "losses": 84,
        "win_pct": 0.4684,
        "runs_scored": 803.0,
        "runs_allowed": 796.0,
        "run_differential": 7.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0443,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.0823,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.038,
        "offense_index": 1.1298,
        "defense_index": 0.8929,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0,
          "run_differential": 7.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0486
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.019,
        "offense_edge": -0.0053,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.1298,
        "defense_strength": 0.121,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.1071,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9977,
        "run_prevention": 1.0096,
        "strikeout": 0.989
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "664285",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "664285",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 709.0,
            "k_percent": 17.5,
            "bb_percent": 8.7,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.322,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 28.2,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 5.7,
            "hard_hit_percent": 41.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.314,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.6485,
            "whiff_percent": 20.3,
            "swing_percent": 46.9
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.3115,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5964,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8957,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.0953,
            "command_and_miss": -0.5029,
            "regression_edge": -0.1429,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.3,
            "barrel_edge": 0.3333,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.5571,
            "whiff_edge": -0.6857,
            "bb_edge": 0.1,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0943
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "664285",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 92,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 92,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.18041594178791,
              "release_spin_rate": 2286.863141165475,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 92,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.18041594178791,
                "release_spin_rate": 2286.863141165475,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.1804,
              "release_spin_rate": 2286.8631,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0943,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.6733,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.2059,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0175,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9474,
          "walk_factor": 0.992,
          "homer_factor": 1.0046,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.005,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "664285",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0175,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0175,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.992,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0046,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9474,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 4,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 24,
      "Pitches": 107,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: True; actual quality start: False."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260923_WAS@DET.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}