Continuous postgame learning

daily_20260922 · dates 20260922 · generated 2026-09-23T09:00:18.981278+00:00

6-9

Winner picks · 40.0%

Comparable starters · 2 identity mismatches

16/26

Starter ER within ±1

14/26

Starter workload within ±1 inning

Slate coverage

Every calendar day in the requested window is listed. Pending means the prediction exists but the official final result has not settled; Missing review artifact identifies a data gap instead of hiding the day.

Date	Games	Settled	Pending	Hits	Misses	Calibration traces	Review status	Pipeline versions
20260922	16	15	1	6	9	16	Available	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Prioritized optimization roadmap

Runtime evidence for the six recommendations. “Observed games” counts artifacts generated with the relevant trace; older artifacts remain honestly blank.

Priority	Change	Status	Observed games	Evidence
P1	Empirical Confidence Blend	Implemented And Applied	16	applied games: 16formula: w_emp=min(0.5,sample_size/200); final=(1-w_emp)raw+w_empempirical_hit_rate
P1	H2H Base Feature	Implemented And Monitored	16	available games: 15
P2	Score Distribution Widening	Implemented Above 1.4X	16	variance multipliers: [2.15]
P2	Simulation Flip Control	Diagnostic Only Without Independent Support	16	simulation flip candidates: 0published flips: 0
P3	Recent Form Quality Blend	Implemented Last 10	16	configured window: 10last 10 games: 16observed windows: [10]
P3	Continuous Calibration Audit	Implemented	16	settled games: 15metric: bucket_calibration_error

Confidence calibration by bucket

bucket_calibration_error = average published confidence − observed hit rate. Positive means overconfident; negative means underconfident. Weighted absolute error: 0.1881.

Bucket	Games	Average confidence	Observed hit rate	Calibration error	Direction
0.50-0.55	9	52.3%	55.6%	-3.2%	underconfident
0.55-0.60	2	56.5%	50.0%	6.6%	overconfident
0.60-0.65	4	60.0%	0.0%	60.0%	overconfident

Where the score pipeline gained or lost quality

Direct comparison against official final runs. Positive deltas mean the stage was worse than historical_ml; this is score error, not a synthetic one-game ERA.

Stage	Games	Team-run MAE	Total-run MAE	Margin MAE	Winner accuracy	Δ team MAE vs base	Δ margin MAE vs base
historical_ml	15	2.9066	4.0608	3.4277	46.7%	0.0	0.0
variance_applied	15	2.9667	4.2	3.5333	40.0%	0.0601	0.1056
enhanced_prediction	15	3.2	4.1333	4.0	46.7%	0.2934	0.5723
embedded_savant_run_environment	15	3.1667	4.2	4.0667	40.0%	0.2601	0.639
fundamental_edge_target_review	15	3.2	4.2667	4.1333	40.0%	0.2934	0.7056
capped_target	15	3.2	4.2667	4.1333	40.0%	0.2934	0.7056
simulation_result	15	3.2	4.2667	4.1333	40.0%	0.2934	0.7056
published_final	15	3.2	4.2667	4.1333	40.0%	0.2934	0.7056

Largest measured regression

{
  "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
  "games": 15,
  "team_run_mae": 3.2,
  "total_run_mae": 4.1333,
  "margin_mae": 4.0,
  "winner_hits": 7,
  "winner_accuracy": 0.4667,
  "team_run_mae_delta_vs_historical_ml": 0.2934,
  "margin_mae_delta_vs_historical_ml": 0.5723
}

Automatic questions

Which recorded score stage reinforced losing picks?

partial_attribution sample=9

Largest positive recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. Positive, negative, net, absolute, and unchanged movements are shown separately so opposite games cannot cancel into a misleading zero. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution.

Stage	Positive Toward Pick Run Delta	Negative Away From Pick Run Delta	Net Toward Pick Run Delta	Absolute Run Movement	Games Recorded	Games Supporting Pick	Games Opposing Pick	Games Unchanged	Meaning
enhanced_prediction	10.0	-2.0	8.0	12.0	9	5	1	3	reinforced final pick
variance_applied	1.6408	-0.3021	1.3387	1.9429	9	6	3	0	reinforced final pick
embedded_savant_run_environment	1.0	0.0	1.0	1.0	9	1	0	8	reinforced final pick
fundamental_edge_target_review	1.0	0.0	1.0	1.0	9	1	0	8	reinforced final pick
capped_target	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	9	0	0	9	recorded but did not change score margin
simulation_result	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	9	0	0	9	recorded but did not change score margin

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "partial_attribution",
  "sample_size": 9,
  "top_stage": "enhanced_prediction",
  "ranking": [
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 10.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -2.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 8.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 12.0,
      "games_recorded": 9,
      "games_supporting_pick": 5,
      "games_opposing_pick": 1,
      "games_unchanged": 3,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.6408,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -0.3021,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.3387,
      "absolute_run_movement": 1.9429,
      "games_recorded": 9,
      "games_supporting_pick": 6,
      "games_opposing_pick": 3,
      "games_unchanged": 0,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 1.0,
      "games_recorded": 9,
      "games_supporting_pick": 1,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 8,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 1.0,
      "games_recorded": 9,
      "games_supporting_pick": 1,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 8,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 9,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 9,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 9,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 9,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    }
  ],
  "interpretation": "Largest positive recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. Positive, negative, net, absolute, and unchanged movements are shown separately so opposite games cannot cancel into a misleading zero. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution."
}

Which recorded score stage reinforced winning picks?

partial_attribution sample=6

Stage	Positive Toward Pick Run Delta	Negative Away From Pick Run Delta	Net Toward Pick Run Delta	Absolute Run Movement	Games Recorded	Games Supporting Pick	Games Opposing Pick	Games Unchanged	Meaning
enhanced_prediction	2.0	-1.0	1.0	3.0	6	1	1	4	reinforced final pick
embedded_savant_run_environment	2.0	0.0	2.0	2.0	6	2	0	4	reinforced final pick
variance_applied	0.8543	-1.0996	-0.2453	1.9539	6	3	3	0	reinforced final pick
fundamental_edge_target_review	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	6	0	0	6	recorded but did not change score margin
capped_target	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	6	0	0	6	recorded but did not change score margin
simulation_result	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	6	0	0	6	recorded but did not change score margin

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "partial_attribution",
  "sample_size": 6,
  "top_stage": "enhanced_prediction",
  "ranking": [
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 2.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -1.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 3.0,
      "games_recorded": 6,
      "games_supporting_pick": 1,
      "games_opposing_pick": 1,
      "games_unchanged": 4,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 2.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 2.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 2.0,
      "games_recorded": 6,
      "games_supporting_pick": 2,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 4,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.8543,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -1.0996,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": -0.2453,
      "absolute_run_movement": 1.9539,
      "games_recorded": 6,
      "games_supporting_pick": 3,
      "games_opposing_pick": 3,
      "games_unchanged": 0,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 6,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 6,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 6,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 6,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 6,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 6,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    }
  ],
  "interpretation": "Largest positive recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. Positive, negative, net, absolute, and unchanged movements are shown separately so opposite games cannot cancel into a misleading zero. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution."
}

Are Overs performing worse than Unders?

not_measurable sample=0

The current artifacts contain predicted totals but no total line, Over/Under selection, price, or settled total bet.

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "The current artifacts contain predicted totals but no total line, Over/Under selection, price, or settled total bet.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "total_line",
    "total_selection",
    "odds",
    "settled_result"
  ]
}

Are hitter props outperforming pitcher props?

not_measurable sample=0

Player stat projections are not stored as priced, selected, and settled prop predictions.

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "Player stat projections are not stored as priced, selected, and settled prop predictions.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "prop_family",
    "prop_line",
    "selection",
    "odds",
    "settled_result"
  ]
}

Which sportsbooks produce better opportunities?

not_measurable sample=0

No settled prediction was linked to a sportsbook snapshot.

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "No settled prediction was linked to a sportsbook snapshot.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "sportsbook",
    "selection_odds",
    "settled_profit"
  ],
  "books": []
}

Which confidence ranges underperform?

insufficient_sample sample=15

Range	Sample Size	Hits	Misses	Accuracy
[0.000, 0.525)	4	2	2	0.5
[0.525, 0.550)	5	3	2	0.6
[0.550, 0.600)	2	1	1	0.5
[0.600, 1.010)	4	0	4	0.0

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 15,
  "minimum_recommended_sample": 20,
  "worst_observed_range": {
    "range": "[0.600, 1.010)",
    "sample_size": 4,
    "hits": 0,
    "misses": 4,
    "accuracy": 0.0
  },
  "ranges": [
    {
      "range": "[0.000, 0.525)",
      "sample_size": 4,
      "hits": 2,
      "misses": 2,
      "accuracy": 0.5
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.525, 0.550)",
      "sample_size": 5,
      "hits": 3,
      "misses": 2,
      "accuracy": 0.6
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.550, 0.600)",
      "sample_size": 2,
      "hits": 1,
      "misses": 1,
      "accuracy": 0.5
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.600, 1.010)",
      "sample_size": 4,
      "hits": 0,
      "misses": 4,
      "accuracy": 0.0
    }
  ]
}

Which monitored features are drifting?

insufficient_sample sample=16

Three slates are descriptive only and cannot establish statistical feature drift.

Date	Sample Size	Mean Confidence	Mean Predicted Total	Accuracy
20260922	16	0.5467	9.3125	0.4

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 16,
  "minimum_baseline_sample": 30,
  "minimum_recent_sample": 20,
  "reason": "Three slates are descriptive only and cannot establish statistical feature drift.",
  "daily_monitors": [
    {
      "date": "20260922",
      "sample_size": 16,
      "mean_confidence": 0.5467,
      "mean_predicted_total": 9.3125,
      "accuracy": 0.4
    }
  ],
  "features_monitored": [
    "confidence",
    "predicted_total",
    "winner_accuracy"
  ]
}

Which model version introduced errors?

insufficient_sample sample=15

Version error claims require at least 30 settled predictions per version.

Pipeline Version	Model Schema Version	Policy Version	Sample Size	Hits	Misses	Accuracy
enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	historical_game_temporal_v11	model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3	15	6	9	0.4

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 15,
  "minimum_sample_per_version": 30,
  "versions": [
    {
      "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "sample_size": 15,
      "hits": 6,
      "misses": 9,
      "accuracy": 0.4
    }
  ],
  "reason": "Version error claims require at least 30 settled predictions per version."
}

Game processing context

How each game moved from the historical model through confidence calibration, H2H and recent-form signals, score distribution and simulation policy. Postgame learning is added only after the official result settles.

20260922_ARI@COL

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickARI

Published scoreARI 6 - 5 COL

Final confidence56.0%

Calibrationraw 69.7% → blended 63.0%

Empirical signalhit rate 56.3% · weight 50.0% · n=279

H2H base featurehome net -15.0 · absolute 15.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -1.052

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	5.787624009460735-4.145455061371634	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	6-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	6-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	6-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	6-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	6-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	6-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "ARI",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": -0.12,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.56,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.44,
    "away_win_probability": 0.56
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.12,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "ARI wins 6-5",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "ARI 6 - 5 COL",
    "confidence": 0.56,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.697207,
    "sample_size": 279,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5627,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.629953,
    "published_confidence": 0.56,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -15.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 15.0,
    "home_average_margin": -3.0,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0865,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0865,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -9.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -8.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -1.3686,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.464,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -1.052
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.014872093677049792
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.014580299872657028
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 7,
        "probability": 0.014555154468836562
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 7,
        "probability": 0.014269579082598903
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.014099756147751085
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04433457063819088,
      "1": 0.06718185094711822,
      "2": 0.09221158195566188,
      "3": 0.11464180885414929,
      "4": 0.1290995226709389,
      "5": 0.131683176038459,
      "6": 0.12166341378159322,
      "7": 0.10181546600938646,
      "8": 0.07717765132408078,
      "9": 0.05298993807964911,
      "10": 0.03295484820746812,
      "11": 0.018563902066131982,
      "12": 0.009472034498917405,
      "13": 0.0043776528938096896,
      "14": 0.0018325820344451786
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.026677289003250705,
      "1": 0.04091487465484983,
      "2": 0.05822439066992085,
      "3": 0.07687991160668393,
      "4": 0.09419004280344724,
      "5": 0.10707332988105597,
      "6": 0.11293844912053376,
      "7": 0.11053161768049721,
      "8": 0.10037265881311314,
      "9": 0.08457237497808905,
      "10": 0.06611893060429451,
      "11": 0.04796310724042085,
      "12": 0.032282933864722724,
      "13": 0.020161501758287712,
      "14": 0.011683069372580426,
      "15": 0.006281671609572164,
      "16": 0.0031338463386800085
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "ARI 6 - 5 COL",
      "winner": "ARI"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "ARI 6 - 5 COL",
      "winner": "ARI"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0433,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.534,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
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      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "ARI",
      "model_winner": "ARI",
      "simulation_winner": "ARI",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 1,
        "published_winner": "ARI",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "ARI",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
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      "model_score": {
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      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 5
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    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
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      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
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      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
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  },
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    "internal_signal_score": 0.6664,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
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    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
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      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.464,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0433,
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      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
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        "median": 11,
        "max": 11,
        "range": 0
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    },
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          "run_differential_per_game": -0.00641025641025641,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": -1.1282,
        "win_pct_edge": -0.1603,
        "quality_edge": -1.052,
        "season_quality_edge": -1.3686,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
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          "recent_quality_edge": -0.464,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": -1.052
        },
        "margin_adjustment": -0.4418,
        "reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
          "adjustment": -0.4418,
          "cap": 1.4,
          "scale": 0.42,
          "quality_edge": -1.052,
          "season_quality_edge": -1.3686,
          "recent_alignment": "aligned",
          "large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": false,
          "method": "standard_bounded_season_recent_adjustment"
        },
        "adjusted_score": {
          "away_runs": 7.649,
          "home_runs": 2.751,
          "home_win_probability": 0.0837
        }
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
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        "home_distribution": {
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        "away_distribution": {
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        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 5.787624009460735,
      "home_runs": 4.145455061371634,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260922_CHW@KC

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickCHW

Published scoreCHW 5 - 4 KC

Final confidence50.5%

Calibrationraw 51.0% → blended 52.6%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.2% · weight 50.0% · n=496

H2H base featurehome net -26.0 · absolute 26.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.8325

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.092092201064534-4.917808657956837	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "CHW",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": -0.010514,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.505257,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.494743,
    "away_win_probability": 0.505257
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.010514,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "CHW wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "CHW 5 - 4 KC",
    "confidence": 0.50525691,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5101,
    "sample_size": 496,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5423,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.5262,
    "published_confidence": 0.505257,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -26.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 26.0,
    "home_average_margin": -5.2,
    "home_run_delta": -0.15,
    "away_run_delta": 0.15,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -21.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -1.0481,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.432,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.8325
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  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.021807817430817302
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.020960150209752837
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.020734233527767796
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      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.02037449857523685
      },
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        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.020092586061961053
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    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06116472027796691,
      "1": 0.09164343066544639,
      "2": 0.12159270098928096,
      "3": 0.14286291105780963,
      "4": 0.14864055127496822,
      "5": 0.13694965478614174,
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      "7": 0.08072827604465013,
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      "10": 0.014681365512963784,
      "11": 0.006522664194862652,
      "12": 0.002566193567822169
    },
    "away_distribution": {
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      "1": 0.08837995436562997,
      "2": 0.11780859344363724,
      "3": 0.13949244233770236,
      "4": 0.14671512749219628,
      "5": 0.13707227536815528,
      "6": 0.11375614294534321,
      "7": 0.08385917860026602,
      "8": 0.05491321355903247,
      "9": 0.0319413762657908,
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      "11": 0.007574582214063306,
      "12": 0.003088068871957489
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    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "CHW 5 - 4 KC",
      "winner": "CHW"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "CHW 5 - 4 KC",
      "winner": "CHW"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0249,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.642,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "CHW",
      "model_winner": "CHW",
      "simulation_winner": "CHW",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 3,
        "published_winner": "CHW",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667,
        "draw_majority_team": "CHW",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
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      "winner": "CHW",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "CHW",
    "display_confidence": 0.5053,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6027,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5053,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.8325,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.432,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0249,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.6667,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.3333,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.3333,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 5,
        "median": 9,
        "max": 11,
        "range": 6
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
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      "parent_config_id": "candidate-f4c3ec3952acc919",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-21T09:05:52.468019+00:00",
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        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
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        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
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        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
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        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
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        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
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        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
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        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
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        "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
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        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
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        "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
        "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
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    }
  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
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    "changes": [
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        "risk_tier": "low",
        "evaluation_mode": "artifact_replay"
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    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
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    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-22T23:38:02.494369+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-22T23:40:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "away",
      "home_win_probability": 0.492724,
      "confidence": 0.507276,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "total_runs": 8
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
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        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
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    },
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      "home_runs": 4,
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    },
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    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
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      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260922_CIN@ATL

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickATL

Published scoreCIN 6 - 9 ATL

Final confidence60.0%

Calibrationraw 90.1% → blended 73.6%

Empirical signalhit rate 57.1% · weight 50.0% · n=126

H2H base featurehome net 6.0 · absolute 6.0 · n=3

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 1.699

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.914817637847719-4.936296488749236	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-8	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	6-9	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	6-9	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	6-9	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	6-9	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "ATL",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 9,
    "confidence": 0.2,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.6,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.6,
    "away_win_probability": 0.4
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.2,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "ATL wins 9-6",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 9
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 9,
    "predicted_score_text": "CIN 6 - 9 ATL",
    "confidence": 0.6,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.901014,
    "sample_size": 126,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5714,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.736207,
    "published_confidence": 0.6,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 3,
    "sample_weight": 0.0409,
    "home_net_margin": 6.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 6.0,
    "home_average_margin": 2.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0409,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0409,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
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      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
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  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 2.0064,
    "recent_quality_edge": 1.128,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
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  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
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        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.013024453660000096
      },
      {
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        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.012772416561326525
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      {
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    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.016116702600689085,
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        "confidence_floor": 0.505,
        "score_gap": 3.0685,
        "calibration_sample_size": 126,
        "calibration_empirical_hit_rate": 0.5714,
        "calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.5625,
        "calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
        "season_quality_edge": 1.699,
        "reasons": [
          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability",
          "season run-differential edge supports the pick"
        ],
        "score_coherence": {
          "policy": "probability_follows_published_score_v1",
          "published_score": {
            "away_runs": 5,
            "home_runs": 8
          },
          "margin": 3,
          "probability_before": 0.703271,
          "margin_implied_home_probability": 0.71683,
          "shrinkage_weight": 0.91875,
          "side_flipped": false,
          "applied": false,
          "magnitude_pull_suppressed": true,
          "probability_after": 0.703271,
          "aligned_pick_probability": 0.703271
        },
        "starter_experience": {
          "applied": true,
          "min_starter_games": 10,
          "per_starter_career_games": {
            "702275": 15,
            "682227": 10
          },
          "shrink_factor": 0.8917,
          "probability_before": 0.703271,
          "probability_after": 0.68125,
          "reason": "inexperienced starter (debut/thin history): confidence shrunk toward 0.5 by career-games factor; winner unchanged"
        }
      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
        "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
        "available": true,
        "sample_size": 3,
        "sample_weight": 0.0409,
        "home_net_margin": 6.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 6.0,
        "home_average_margin": 2.0,
        "home_run_delta": 0.0409,
        "away_run_delta": -0.0409,
        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": -2.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 3.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 5.0
          }
        ],
        "adaptive_parameters": {
          "h2h.history_limit": 5,
          "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
          "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
          "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
        }
      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "home": {
          "team": "ATL",
          "games": 156,
          "wins": 92,
          "losses": 64,
          "win_pct": 0.5897435897435898,
          "runs_scored": 722,
          "runs_allowed": 602,
          "run_differential": 120,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.7692307692307693,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "CIN",
          "games": 156,
          "wins": 72,
          "losses": 84,
          "win_pct": 0.46153846153846156,
          "runs_scored": 642,
          "runs_allowed": 805,
          "run_differential": -163,
          "run_differential_per_game": -1.044871794871795,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 1.8141,
        "win_pct_edge": 0.1282,
        "quality_edge": 1.699,
        "season_quality_edge": 2.0064,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": 2.0064,
          "recent_quality_edge": 1.128,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": 1.699
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 2.7184,
        "reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
          "adjustment": 2.7184,
          "cap": 4.0,
          "scale": 1.6,
          "quality_edge": 1.699,
          "season_quality_edge": 2.0064,
          "recent_alignment": "aligned",
          "large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": true,
          "method": "supported_large_edge_up_to_four_runs"
        },
        "adjusted_score": {
          "away_runs": 1.469,
          "home_runs": 9.957,
          "home_win_probability": 0.92
        }
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
            "home_runs": 8,
            "away_runs": 5,
            "probability": 0.013558372469125333
          },
          {
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            "away_runs": 5,
            "probability": 0.013283335660403402
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          {
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            "away_runs": 5,
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          {
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        ],
        "home_distribution": {
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          "1": 0.02377558025788682,
          "2": 0.03526890539050947,
          "3": 0.049157836795012205,
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          "5": 0.07921621845395882,
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          "17": 0.007397687270352755,
          "18": 0.004049446294184794,
          "19": 0.002082740898094085
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        "away_distribution": {
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          "1": 0.06488508663260219,
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        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 2.05,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.914817637847719,
      "home_runs": 4.936296488749236,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 8,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 9,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 9,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 9,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 9,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260922_CLE@BOS

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickBOS

Published scoreCLE 3 - 4 BOS

Final confidence50.5%

Calibrationraw 51.0% → blended 52.6%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.2% · weight 50.0% · n=496

H2H base featurehome net 12.0 · absolute 12.0 · n=3

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.1268

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.133488752570105-4.821217428059169	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-3	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	3-3	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	3-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	3-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	3-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "BOS",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": 0.010514,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.505257,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.505257,
    "away_win_probability": 0.494743
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.010514,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "BOS wins 4-3",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "CLE 3 - 4 BOS",
    "confidence": 0.50525691,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5101,
    "sample_size": 496,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5423,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.5262,
    "published_confidence": 0.505257,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 3,
    "sample_weight": 0.0409,
    "home_net_margin": 12.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 12.0,
    "home_average_margin": 4.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0818,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0818,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 8.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.5288,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.62,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.1268
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03157208015782883
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.030249493781464746
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.029805065934887402
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.02855650157184715
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.028413358903600743
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.09495160569035592,
      "1": 0.13893679527320696,
      "2": 0.17169881659860178,
      "3": 0.1792059344800353,
      "4": 0.15796924183297922,
      "5": 0.11760552933150305,
      "6": 0.07394656572403184,
      "7": 0.03926841190560274,
      "8": 0.01761179929515767,
      "9": 0.006671126533095452,
      "10": 0.002134173335429836
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.09089296935682557,
      "1": 0.13339233051126315,
      "2": 0.16631740472974058,
      "3": 0.17617764863331667,
      "4": 0.1585514396386587,
      "5": 0.12122601825343864,
      "6": 0.07874586577641476,
      "7": 0.04345762162669757,
      "8": 0.02037560050200403,
      "9": 0.008116357165078681,
      "10": 0.0027467438065618024
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "CLE 3 - 4 BOS",
      "winner": "BOS"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "CLE 3 - 4 BOS",
      "winner": "BOS"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0272,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.5033,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "BOS",
      "model_winner": "BOS",
      "simulation_winner": "BOS",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 3,
        "published_winner": "BOS",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.3333,
        "draw_majority_team": "CLE",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.1268,
      "winner": "BOS",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "BOS",
    "display_confidence": 0.5053,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.505,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5053,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.1268,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.62,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0272,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.3333,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.3333,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 2,
        "median": 8,
        "max": 9,
        "range": 7
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-982561b127534866",
      "config_hash": "sha256:53760a5ddffc6f180dee92a59d27889f1cdba857749a59d2378ee233c5952253",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-f4c3ec3952acc919",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-21T09:05:52.468019+00:00",
      "parameters": {
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        "confidence.base_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
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        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
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        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
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        "score.variance_multiplier": 2.15,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
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        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
        "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
        "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
        "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
        "context.lineup_context_min": 0.8,
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        "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
        "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
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      "stage": "historical_ml",
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      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
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      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260922_HOU@SEA

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickSEA

Published scoreHOU 3 - 5 SEA

Final confidence60.0%

Calibrationraw 72.7% → blended 64.3%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.9% · weight 50.0% · n=236

H2H base featurehome net 7.0 · absolute 7.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.2535

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.8457332020495683-4.975609731618868	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	3-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	3-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	3-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	3-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	3-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "SEA",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.2,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.6,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.6,
    "away_win_probability": 0.4
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.2,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "SEA wins 5-3",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "HOU 3 - 5 SEA",
    "confidence": 0.6,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.72737,
    "sample_size": 236,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5593,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.643335,
    "published_confidence": 0.6,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 7.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 7.0,
    "home_average_margin": 1.4,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0404,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0404,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      }
    ],
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            "context.lineup_context_weight": 1.0,
            "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
            "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
            "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
            "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
            "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
            "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
            "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
            "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
            "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "diagnostics": {
      "confidence_calibration": {
        "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
        "applied": true,
        "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
        "raw_confidence": 0.72737,
        "sample_size": 236,
        "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5593,
        "empirical_weight": 0.5,
        "blended_confidence": 0.643335
      },
      "confidence_governor": {
        "applied": true,
        "policy": "align_to_calibrated_probability_v2",
        "raw_confidence": 0.6,
        "final_confidence": 0.6422,
        "calibrated_pick_probability": 0.6422,
        "shrinkage_weight": 0.953937,
        "hard_maximum": 0.9,
        "confidence_floor": 0.505,
        "score_gap": 1.9092,
        "calibration_sample_size": 236,
        "calibration_empirical_hit_rate": 0.5593,
        "calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.5551,
        "calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.2535,
        "reasons": [
          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability"
        ],
        "score_coherence": {
          "policy": "probability_follows_published_score_v1",
          "published_score": {
            "away_runs": 3,
            "home_runs": 5
          },
          "margin": 2,
          "probability_before": 0.642242,
          "margin_implied_home_probability": 0.64888,
          "shrinkage_weight": 0.953937,
          "side_flipped": false,
          "applied": false,
          "magnitude_pull_suppressed": true,
          "probability_after": 0.642242,
          "aligned_pick_probability": 0.642242
        },
        "starter_experience": {
          "applied": false,
          "min_starter_games": 16,
          "shrink_factor": 1.0
        }
      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
        "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
        "available": true,
        "sample_size": 5,
        "sample_weight": 0.0577,
        "home_net_margin": 7.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 7.0,
        "home_average_margin": 1.4,
        "home_run_delta": 0.0404,
        "away_run_delta": -0.0404,
        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": 1.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 5.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": -3.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 5.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": -1.0
          }
        ],
        "adaptive_parameters": {
          "h2h.history_limit": 5,
          "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
          "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
          "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
        }
      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
        "applied": false,
        "home": {
          "team": "SEA",
          "games": 156,
          "wins": 73,
          "losses": 83,
          "win_pct": 0.46794871794871795,
          "runs_scored": 634,
          "runs_allowed": 690,
          "run_differential": -56,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.358974358974359,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "HOU",
          "games": 156,
          "wins": 77,
          "losses": 79,
          "win_pct": 0.4935897435897436,
          "runs_scored": 688,
          "runs_allowed": 747,
          "run_differential": -59,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.3782051282051282,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 0.0192,
        "win_pct_edge": -0.0256,
        "quality_edge": 0.2535,
        "season_quality_edge": -0.0192,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": -0.0192,
          "recent_quality_edge": 0.76,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "conflict",
          "blended_quality_edge": 0.2535
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 0.0,
        "reason": "season quality edge below action threshold"
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
            "home_runs": 5,
            "away_runs": 3,
            "probability": 0.019807181867887522
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 5,
            "away_runs": 4,
            "probability": 0.019691504953465656
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 6,
            "away_runs": 3,
            "probability": 0.019570410712793657
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 6,
            "away_runs": 4,
            "probability": 0.019456116577447988
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 3,
            "probability": 0.018305326946656795
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        ],
        "home_distribution": {
          "0": 0.033856263722452706,
          "1": 0.05269337568194848,
          "2": 0.0748867642580509,
          "3": 0.0971820736414317,
          "4": 0.11515937765079265,
          "5": 0.12460759338355223,
          "6": 0.12311805872810876,
          "7": 0.11107876986369242,
          "8": 0.09151081339290945,
          "9": 0.06884078615504327,
          "10": 0.04728803617962441,
          "11": 0.029661204803371678,
          "12": 0.01698862962277677,
          "13": 0.008885051725055321,
          "14": 0.004243201191189234
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        "away_distribution": {
          "0": 0.06940258866068405,
          "1": 0.10534133438485821,
          "2": 0.13885653352877805,
          "3": 0.1589564594744994,
          "4": 0.15802812989777928,
          "5": 0.1364378849771106,
          "6": 0.10230100830289675,
          "7": 0.06661456680358742,
          "8": 0.037670627953868045,
          "9": 0.018500389396486877,
          "10": 0.007890476619451307
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 2.05,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.8457332020495683,
      "home_runs": 4.975609731618868,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260922_LAA@OAK

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickLAA

Published scoreLAA 5 - 4 OAK

Final confidence53.0%

Calibrationraw 59.0% → blended 57.3%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.6% · weight 50.0% · n=608

H2H base featurehome net -9.0 · absolute 9.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.6836

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	5.171177076761104-5.2114082083396065	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "LAA",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": -0.06,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.47,
    "away_win_probability": 0.53
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.06,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "LAA wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "LAA 5 - 4 OAK",
    "confidence": 0.53,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.589632,
    "sample_size": 608,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5559,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.572766,
    "published_confidence": 0.53,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -9.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 9.0,
    "home_average_margin": -1.8,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0519,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0519,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 6.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -7.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.8622,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.352,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.6836
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.01802074068732686
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.01740953005386772
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.01723162970667973
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.01717736037965188
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.0166932069363516
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05343477770460599,
      "1": 0.08048449357157093,
      "2": 0.10848806793669231,
      "3": 0.13086794555365955,
      "4": 0.14127526964097756,
      "5": 0.13648362713595566,
      "6": 0.1179985082313575,
      "7": 0.09129647901469569,
      "8": 0.06321397362774946,
      "9": 0.03917001191984276,
      "10": 0.021720802514359438,
      "11": 0.010779027522363118,
      "12": 0.004787015626169971
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.03971920077593216,
      "1": 0.060376326773134426,
      "2": 0.08365085414937108,
      "3": 0.10563591005741368,
      "4": 0.12158787892109253,
      "5": 0.12755764496590888,
      "6": 0.12197201782357538,
      "7": 0.10630444649981503,
      "8": 0.0844462091392718,
      "9": 0.06114295053772614,
      "10": 0.04035061256743805,
      "11": 0.02427120720779267,
      "12": 0.013306692762599024,
      "13": 0.0066494601431591385,
      "14": 0.0030285876757699254
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "LAA 5 - 4 OAK",
      "winner": "LAA"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "LAA 5 - 4 OAK",
      "winner": "LAA"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.1275,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.562,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "LAA",
      "model_winner": "LAA",
      "simulation_winner": "LAA",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "LAA",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "LAA",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.6836,
      "winner": "LAA",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "LAA",
    "display_confidence": 0.53,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6128,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.6836,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.352,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.1275,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.5,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 8,
        "median": 11,
        "max": 11,
        "range": 3
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-982561b127534866",
      "config_hash": "sha256:53760a5ddffc6f180dee92a59d27889f1cdba857749a59d2378ee233c5952253",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-f4c3ec3952acc919",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-21T09:05:52.468019+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 2.15,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
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    },
    {
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    },
    {
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    },
    {
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      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
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    }
  ]
}

20260922_MIA@CHC

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickCHC

Published scoreMIA 4 - 6 CHC

Final confidence53.0%

Calibrationraw 72.5% → blended 64.6%

Empirical signalhit rate 56.7% · weight 50.0% · n=127

H2H base featurehome net -1.0 · absolute 1.0 · n=3

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.9358

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.9290970901058255-5.8281509179821365	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-6	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-6	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-6	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-6	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-6	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-6	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "CHC",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "confidence": 0.06,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.53,
    "away_win_probability": 0.47
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            "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
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            "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
            "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
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            "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
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            "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
            "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
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            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
            "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
            "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
            "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
            "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
            "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
            "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
            "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
            "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
            "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
            "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
            "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
            "context.lineup_context_min": 0.8,
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            "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
            "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
            "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
            "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
            "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
            "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
            "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
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            "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
            "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
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        }
      }
    },
    "diagnostics": {
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        "reasons": [
          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability"
        ],
        "score_coherence": {
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            "home_runs": 6
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        "starter_experience": {
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      "h2h_base_feature": {
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        "home_net_margin": -1.0,
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        "home_run_delta": -0.0068,
        "away_run_delta": 0.0068,
        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": -7.0
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            "home_margin": 1.0
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          {
            "home_margin": 5.0
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        "adaptive_parameters": {
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      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
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        "home": {
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          "wins": 87,
          "losses": 69,
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          "runs_allowed": 683,
          "run_differential": 152,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.9743589743589743,
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        },
        "away": {
          "team": "MIA",
          "games": 156,
          "wins": 76,
          "losses": 80,
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          "run_differential_per_game": -0.019230769230769232,
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        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 0.9936,
        "win_pct_edge": 0.0705,
        "quality_edge": 0.9358,
        "season_quality_edge": 1.0994,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
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          "recent_quality_edge": 0.632,
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          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
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        "margin_adjustment": 0.393,
        "reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
          "adjustment": 0.393,
          "cap": 1.4,
          "scale": 0.42,
          "quality_edge": 0.9358,
          "season_quality_edge": 1.0994,
          "recent_alignment": "aligned",
          "large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": false,
          "method": "standard_bounded_season_recent_adjustment"
        },
        "adjusted_score": {
          "away_runs": 2.656,
          "home_runs": 6.519,
          "home_win_probability": 0.8283
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      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
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        "home_distribution": {
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        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.9290970901058255,
      "home_runs": 5.8281509179821365,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260922_MIL@PHI

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickMIL

Published scoreMIL 7 - 4 PHI

Final confidence60.0%

Calibrationraw 81.3% → blended 68.4%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.6% · weight 50.0% · n=721

H2H base featurehome net -9.0 · absolute 9.0 · n=3

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -1.1486

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.8775638753360995-5.441149183485023	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	7-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	7-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	7-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	7-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	7-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIL",
    "away_runs": 7,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": -0.2,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.6,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.4,
    "away_win_probability": 0.6
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.2,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIL wins 7-4 (Extra Innings - 10)",
    "away_runs": 7,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 7,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "MIL 7 - 4 PHI",
    "confidence": 0.6,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.812507,
    "sample_size": 721,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5562,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.684354,
    "published_confidence": 0.6,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 3,
    "sample_weight": 0.0409,
    "home_net_margin": -9.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 9.0,
    "home_average_margin": -3.0,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0614,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0614,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -6.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -1.2244,
    "recent_quality_edge": -1.008,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -1.1486
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 7,
        "probability": 0.014573059704334214
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 7,
        "probability": 0.01439655865740624
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.014198771249244232
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.014026803382411362
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 8,
        "probability": 0.013980176561421193
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04966418821007597,
      "1": 0.0749909075192434,
      "2": 0.10183792629263153,
      "3": 0.12437874054997568,
      "4": 0.1366213058608974,
      "5": 0.13496662221817937,
      "6": 0.1199140291307264,
      "7": 0.09581848101364855,
      "8": 0.0688595591096189,
      "9": 0.04450562079397098,
      "10": 0.02587028174140091,
      "11": 0.01352455932659124,
      "12": 0.0063588818806453,
      "13": 0.002688896352394295
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.02151953985864243,
      "1": 0.03312541893606156,
      "2": 0.04765974437656828,
      "3": 0.0640920213014814,
      "4": 0.08055975903916963,
      "5": 0.094644259841805,
      "6": 0.10392794271561771,
      "7": 0.10666754802630818,
      "8": 0.10232793833529358,
      "9": 0.09175253390277009,
      "10": 0.07689601609543746,
      "11": 0.060235364633589535,
      "12": 0.04410229377193126,
      "13": 0.030180938645310643,
      "14": 0.01930484138237003,
      "15": 0.011541484249777918,
      "16": 0.006449395635557363,
      "17": 0.003368513606918416,
      "18": 0.0016444456453896439
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "MIL 7 - 4 PHI",
      "winner": "MIL"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "MIL 7 - 4 PHI",
      "winner": "MIL"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0042,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -1.1247,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "MIL",
      "model_winner": "MIL",
      "simulation_winner": "MIL",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 6,
        "published_winner": "MIL",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5,
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 3,
      "simulation_margin": 3,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 7,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 7,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 3,
      "final_margin": 3,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.1486,
      "winner": "MIL",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 7,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "MIL",
    "display_confidence": 0.6,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.646,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.6,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 3,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.1486,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 1.008,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0042,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.5,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.1667,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.3333,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 3,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 8,
        "range": 5
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-982561b127534866",
      "config_hash": "sha256:53760a5ddffc6f180dee92a59d27889f1cdba857749a59d2378ee233c5952253",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-f4c3ec3952acc919",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-21T09:05:52.468019+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 2.15,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
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      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260922_MIN@SF

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickMIN

Published scoreMIN 5 - 3 SF

Final confidence51.5%

Calibrationraw 51.0% → blended 53.3%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.6% · weight 50.0% · n=721

H2H base featurehome net 3.0 · absolute 3.0 · n=1

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.1244

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.571395042631441-4.012320323667293	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-3	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-3	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-3	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-3	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIN",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "confidence": -0.030844,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.515422,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.484578,
    "away_win_probability": 0.515422
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.030844,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIN wins 5-3 (Extra Innings - 12)",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 3
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "predicted_score_text": "MIN 5 - 3 SF",
    "confidence": 0.5154224,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5101,
    "sample_size": 721,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5562,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.53315,
    "published_confidence": 0.515422,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 1,
    "sample_weight": 0.0167,
    "home_net_margin": 3.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 3.0,
    "home_average_margin": 3.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.025,
    "away_run_delta": -0.025,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.1656,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.048,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.1244
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.020135194409712124
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.019499377959703138
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.019264884419349954
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.018792848496616832
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.01865655006845656
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05501378994339653,
      "1": 0.08277375958986602,
      "2": 0.1112144360187515,
      "3": 0.13343722828716215,
      "4": 0.14296845598147795,
      "5": 0.13678888438085227,
      "6": 0.11687153663434066,
      "7": 0.08916903504656427,
      "8": 0.06075286252311291,
      "9": 0.0369629640914412,
      "10": 0.020082334712323294,
      "11": 0.009743365132333955,
      "12": 0.00422134765837743
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.053040287839271005,
      "1": 0.07991178015129281,
      "2": 0.10780297291264077,
      "3": 0.13021639543229116,
      "4": 0.14083662211698436,
      "5": 0.13638937222788045,
      "6": 0.11826615020043019,
      "7": 0.09182382688577015,
      "8": 0.0638359486426912,
      "9": 0.039736557849543344,
      "10": 0.02214777845188687,
      "11": 0.011053125379188124,
      "12": 0.0049391819101295515
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "MIN 5 - 3 SF",
      "winner": "MIN"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "MIN 5 - 3 SF",
      "winner": "MIN"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0596,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.302,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "winner": "MIN",
      "model_winner": "MIN",
      "simulation_winner": "MIN",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 5,
        "published_winner": "MIN",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.8,
        "draw_majority_team": "MIN",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 3
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 3
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.1244,
      "winner": "MIN",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 3,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "MIN",
    "display_confidence": 0.5154,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6335,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5154,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.1244,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.048,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0596,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.8,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.2,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.6,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 1,
        "median": 6,
        "max": 11,
        "range": 10
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
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    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
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        "recent.window_games": 10,
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        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
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        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
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        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
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        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
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        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
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        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
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        "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
        "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
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        "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
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        "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
        "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
        "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
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        "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
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    }
  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
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    "changes": [
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        "risk_tier": "low",
        "evaluation_mode": "artifact_replay"
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    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
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    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-23T01:36:25.839729+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-23T01:45:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "away",
      "home_win_probability": 0.481856,
      "confidence": 0.5181439999999999,
      "predicted_score": {
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      "pipeline_provenance": {
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        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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            "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
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            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
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        }
      }
    },
    "candidate_prediction": {
      "predicted_winner": "away",
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      "predicted_score": {
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        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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            "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
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            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
            "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
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            "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
            "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
            "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
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            "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
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            "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
            "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
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          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability"
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      },
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          "run_differential_per_game": -0.5159235668789809,
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        "away": {
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        "run_differential_edge_per_game": -0.0892,
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        "recent_quality_blend": {
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      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
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      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260922_NYM@TEX

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickTEX

Published scoreNYM 4 - 6 TEX

Final confidence60.1%

Calibrationraw 60.9% → blended 59.0%

Empirical signalhit rate 57.1% · weight 50.0% · n=634

H2H base featureNot available for this matchup · n=0

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.2143

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.504189328721297-4.654877300049959	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-6	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-6	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-6	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-6	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-6	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "TEX",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "confidence": 0.201838,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.600919,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.600919,
    "away_win_probability": 0.399081
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.201838,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "TEX wins 6-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 6
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "predicted_score_text": "NYM 4 - 6 TEX",
    "confidence": 0.600919,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.609047,
    "sample_size": 634,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.571,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.590023,
    "published_confidence": 0.600919,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": false,
    "sample_size": 0,
    "home_net_margin": 0.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.1122,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.404,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.2143
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.016642182831584123
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.016460461032581333
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.01616913016613526
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.015992573794183618
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 7,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.015492401343453503
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.03219874046114436,
      "1": 0.04919334962504984,
      "2": 0.06920126974715787,
      "3": 0.08963175247116709,
      "4": 0.10689314838767018,
      "5": 0.11737564890221065,
      "6": 0.11867146400941878,
      "7": 0.11047264454756091,
      "8": 0.09468983445323256,
      "9": 0.07472950757442277,
      "10": 0.054302652034029016,
      "11": 0.03633206782962772,
      "12": 0.022382023577241537,
      "13": 0.01269546866560099,
      "14": 0.006630377923597569,
      "15": 0.0031883646493194432,
      "16": 0.001411685141548513
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05251036502724695,
      "1": 0.07914195912844203,
      "2": 0.10688018789179013,
      "3": 0.12933506109467954,
      "4": 0.14023744436373733,
      "5": 0.13625120664940932,
      "6": 0.11861657441633451,
      "7": 0.09252925180707822,
      "8": 0.06467573538053574,
      "9": 0.04050721197602574,
      "10": 0.022732750324085744,
      "11": 0.011431422165958261,
      "12": 0.005150829774676596
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "NYM 4 - 6 TEX",
      "winner": "TEX"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "NYM 4 - 6 TEX",
      "winner": "TEX"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0279,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.404,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "winner": "TEX",
      "model_winner": "TEX",
      "simulation_winner": "TEX",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 3,
        "published_winner": "TEX",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "TEX",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 6
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 6
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.2143,
      "winner": "TEX",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 6,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "TEX",
    "display_confidence": 0.6009,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6118,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.6009,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.2143,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.404,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0279,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.3333,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.3333,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 5,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 9,
        "range": 4
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
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      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260922_SD@LAD

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickLAD

Published scoreSD 4 - 6 LAD

Final confidence53.0%

Calibrationraw 51.0% → blended 53.5%

Empirical signalhit rate 56.0% · weight 50.0% · n=384

H2H base featurehome net 8.0 · absolute 8.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.593

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.75378154488053-5.281393630446507	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-6	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-6	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-6	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-6	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "LAD",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "confidence": 0.06,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.53,
    "away_win_probability": 0.47
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.06,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "LAD wins 6-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 6
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "predicted_score_text": "SD 4 - 6 LAD",
    "confidence": 0.53,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5101,
    "sample_size": 384,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5599,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.535,
    "published_confidence": 0.53,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 8.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 8.0,
    "home_average_margin": 1.6,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0462,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0462,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 1.0609,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.276,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.593
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.018526113511337337
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.01844343441079805
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.018245728185989026
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.01816430040059957
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.016906251202667363
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04839716585087043,
      "1": 0.07314040621783151,
      "2": 0.09958061757233241,
      "3": 0.12214403755870143,
      "4": 0.13497388158224374,
      "5": 0.13437151459800353,
      "6": 0.1205159966244335,
      "7": 0.09737830032134678,
      "8": 0.07088587303120207,
      "9": 0.04648760842535588,
      "10": 0.02746595633600156,
      "11": 0.014619491110093271,
      "12": 0.007010512935224367,
      "13": 0.0030286378363596138
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05016788973826385,
      "1": 0.07572568406498245,
      "2": 0.1027307489173719,
      "3": 0.1252557235850542,
      "4": 0.13725702553829872,
      "5": 0.1351796953018006,
      "6": 0.11965427515758538,
      "7": 0.09518858134499898,
      "8": 0.06805834208498521,
      "9": 0.04373385427286586,
      "10": 0.025257712679724494,
      "11": 0.013110225469352164,
      "12": 0.00611598173706504,
      "13": 0.0025642601076510244
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "SD 4 - 6 LAD",
      "winner": "LAD"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "SD 4 - 6 LAD",
      "winner": "LAD"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0408,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.066,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "winner": "LAD",
      "model_winner": "LAD",
      "simulation_winner": "LAD",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 5,
        "published_winner": "LAD",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "LAD",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 6
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 6
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.593,
      "winner": "LAD",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 6,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "LAD",
    "display_confidence": 0.53,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6058,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.593,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.276,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0408,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.2,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.2,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.4,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 4,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 12,
        "range": 8
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
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      "parent_config_id": "candidate-f4c3ec3952acc919",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-21T09:05:52.468019+00:00",
      "parameters": {
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        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
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        "score.variance_multiplier": 2.15,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
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        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
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        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
        "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
        "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
        "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
        "context.lineup_context_min": 0.8,
        "context.lineup_context_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
        "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
        "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
        "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
        "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
        "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
        "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
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    }
  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
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      "config_hash": "sha256:9ca63931a023e9b6f5e0ed6f872bef54d37bd4e9dc951e5e10b28553b15e3582",
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      "parent_config_hash": "sha256:3d9930771042cec882c8a869e835917939fd7c764fe71a6d765dc4a636b90c8d"
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    "changes": [
      {
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        "old_value": 2.05,
        "new_value": 2.15,
        "risk_tier": "low",
        "evaluation_mode": "artifact_replay"
      }
    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
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    ],
    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-23T01:43:33.392997+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-23T02:10:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.564073,
      "confidence": 0.564073,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "total_runs": 9
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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          "parameters": {
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            "confidence.base_cap": 0.58,
            "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
            "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
            "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
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            "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
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            "score.variance_multiplier": 2.15,
            "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
            "recent.window_games": 10,
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            "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
            "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
            "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
            "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
            "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
            "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
            "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
            "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
            "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
            "h2h.history_limit": 5,
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            "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
            "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
            "simulation.allow_score": true,
            "player.model_weight": 0.5,
            "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
            "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
            "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
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            "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
            "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
            "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
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            "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
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            "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
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            "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
            "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
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            "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
            "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
            "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
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            "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
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            "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
            "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
            "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
            "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
            "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
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            "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
            "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "candidate_prediction": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.564152,
      "confidence": 0.564152,
      "predicted_score": {
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        "away_runs": 4,
        "total_runs": 9
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
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        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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          "parent_config_id": "candidate-57e651c7f36832cf",
          "created_at_utc": "2026-09-18T09:05:32.063728+00:00",
          "parameters": {
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            "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
            "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
            "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
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            "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
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      }
    },
    "diagnostics": {
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        "away": {
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    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
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    },
    {
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    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
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    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260922_STL@PIT

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickPIT

Published scoreSTL 4 - 5 PIT

Final confidence53.9%

Calibrationraw 56.4% → blended 56.2%

Empirical signalhit rate 56.1% · weight 50.0% · n=663

H2H base featurehome net 13.0 · absolute 13.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.3334

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.459494787448133-5.403853993839366	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "PIT",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.077324,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.538662,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.538662,
    "away_win_probability": 0.461338
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.077324,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "PIT wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "STL 4 - 5 PIT",
    "confidence": 0.5386616975,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5636,
    "sample_size": 663,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5611,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.56235,
    "published_confidence": 0.538662,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 13.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 13.0,
    "home_average_margin": 2.6,
    "home_run_delta": 0.075,
    "away_run_delta": -0.075,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 7.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.3622,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.28,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.3334
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.01874553281085251
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.01833624081403006
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.017967726703155436
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.01757541740926132
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.0174712590381
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04396234046024391,
      "1": 0.06663453256853556,
      "2": 0.09152929969611466,
      "3": 0.11393657421528262,
      "4": 0.12853115450458066,
      "5": 0.1314001598484035,
      "6": 0.121737845739038,
      "7": 0.10221098289907057,
      "8": 0.0777699376415623,
      "9": 0.053625106843242114,
      "10": 0.033509413290951785,
      "11": 0.01897613280276835,
      "12": 0.00973847226835575,
      "13": 0.004529144599490551,
      "14": 0.001908902622359785
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.054718993236023666,
      "1": 0.08234674000013913,
      "2": 0.11070735658696271,
      "3": 0.13296223580136135,
      "4": 0.1426598935075821,
      "5": 0.13674052393760266,
      "6": 0.11708852677323993,
      "7": 0.08956806700028855,
      "8": 0.06120879356446644,
      "9": 0.03736768518102923,
      "10": 0.02037981930997646,
      "11": 0.009929473495083193,
      "12": 0.004321891606244724
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "STL 4 - 5 PIT",
      "winner": "PIT"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "STL 4 - 5 PIT",
      "winner": "PIT"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0264,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.49,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "PIT",
      "model_winner": "PIT",
      "simulation_winner": "PIT",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 1,
        "published_winner": "PIT",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "PIT",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.3334,
      "winner": "PIT",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "PIT",
    "display_confidence": 0.5387,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5942,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5387,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.3334,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.28,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0264,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
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          "9": 0.035662955965267015,
          "10": 0.01888329467181206,
          "11": 0.008883227379674546,
          "12": 0.0037127556053073428
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 2.05,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.459494787448133,
      "home_runs": 5.403853993839366,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260922_TB@NYY

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickNYY

Published scoreTB 3 - 4 NYY

Final confidence53.5%

Calibrationraw 51.0% → blended 54.2%

Empirical signalhit rate 57.4% · weight 50.0% · n=418

H2H base featurehome net 9.0 · absolute 9.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.0823

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.8083426116269434-5.205999797915791	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	3-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	3-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	3-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	3-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	3-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYY",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": 0.069836,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.534918,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.534918,
    "away_win_probability": 0.465082
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.069836,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYY wins 4-3 (Extra Innings - 10)",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "TB 3 - 4 NYY",
    "confidence": 0.5349177024999999,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5101,
    "sample_size": 418,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5742,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.54215,
    "published_confidence": 0.534918,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 9.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 9.0,
    "home_average_margin": 1.8,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0519,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0519,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 8.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.2903,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.304,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.0823
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.023775234282643852
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02367872370940118
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.023560423806430014
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.023464785211227662
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.021061008414578045
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06754021958834518,
      "1": 0.1007549116457567,
      "2": 0.1319418697833856,
      "3": 0.15167419255236253,
      "4": 0.1530570711371964,
      "5": 0.13558378541339447,
      "6": 0.1054325622477747,
      "7": 0.07197048287670531,
      "8": 0.04312674904601812,
      "9": 0.02268567345106441,
      "10": 0.010475367804362895,
      "11": 0.004246191086855278,
      "12": 0.0015109233667785398
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.07034955035165352,
      "1": 0.10474893686872565,
      "2": 0.136401658457503,
      "3": 0.1553357457188786,
      "4": 0.15470519286349196,
      "5": 0.1347473104393432,
      "6": 0.10264009569004623,
      "7": 0.06837474506458452,
      "8": 0.03983420195671947,
      "9": 0.020295429696302256,
      "10": 0.009043199450248899,
      "11": 0.003523933442502917
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "TB 3 - 4 NYY",
      "winner": "NYY"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "TB 3 - 4 NYY",
      "winner": "NYY"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0798,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.234,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "NYY",
      "model_winner": "NYY",
      "simulation_winner": "NYY",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 4,
        "published_winner": "NYY",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.75,
        "draw_majority_team": "NYY",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.0823,
      "winner": "NYY",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "NYY",
    "display_confidence": 0.5349,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5591,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5349,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.0823,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.304,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0798,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.75,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.25,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.5,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 3,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 10,
        "range": 7
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
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      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-21T09:05:52.468019+00:00",
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        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
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        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
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        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
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        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
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        "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
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        "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
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        "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
        "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
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  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
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        "risk_tier": "low",
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    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
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    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-22T16:36:39.862601+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-22T17:05:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.548329,
      "confidence": 0.548329,
      "predicted_score": {
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        "away_runs": 3,
        "total_runs": 7
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      "pipeline_provenance": {
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            "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
            "context.lineup_context_min": 0.8,
            "context.lineup_context_weight": 1.0,
            "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
            "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
            "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
            "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
            "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
            "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
            "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
            "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
            "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
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        }
      }
    },
    "candidate_prediction": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.548407,
      "confidence": 0.548407,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 4,
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      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
          "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
          "config_id": "candidate-f4c3ec3952acc919",
          "config_hash": "sha256:9ca63931a023e9b6f5e0ed6f872bef54d37bd4e9dc951e5e10b28553b15e3582",
          "parent_config_id": "candidate-57e651c7f36832cf",
          "created_at_utc": "2026-09-18T09:05:32.063728+00:00",
          "parameters": {
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            "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
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            "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
            "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
            "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
            "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
            "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
            "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
            "h2h.history_limit": 5,
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            "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
            "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
            "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
            "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
            "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
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            "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
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            "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
            "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
            "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
            "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
            "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
            "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
            "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
            "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
            "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
            "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
            "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
            "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
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            "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
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            "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
            "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
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      }
    },
    "diagnostics": {
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        "raw_confidence": 0.5101,
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      "confidence_governor": {
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        "policy": "align_to_calibrated_probability_v2",
        "raw_confidence": 0.54215,
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        "calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
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        "reasons": [
          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability"
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        "score_coherence": {
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          "published_score": {
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          "margin": 1,
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        "starter_experience": {
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          "min_starter_games": 15,
          "shrink_factor": 1.0
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      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
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        "home_net_margin": 9.0,
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        "evidence": [
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            "home_margin": 8.0
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          {
            "home_margin": -3.0
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            "home_margin": -2.0
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      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
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        "home": {
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          "losses": 66,
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          "runs_scored": 713,
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          "run_differential": 137,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.8838709677419355,
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        },
        "away": {
          "team": "TB",
          "games": 155,
          "wins": 95,
          "losses": 60,
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        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 0.3484,
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        "quality_edge": 0.0823,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.2903,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
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          "recent_quality_edge": -0.304,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
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        "margin_adjustment": 0.0,
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      "score_distribution": {
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          "9": 0.018759908421561413,
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        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.8083426116269434,
      "home_runs": 5.205999797915791,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260922_TB@NYY_2

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickNYY

Published scoreTB 4 - 5 NYY

Final confidence52.1%

Calibrationraw 50.4% → blended 53.0%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.5% · weight 50.0% · n=762

H2H base featurehome net 9.0 · absolute 9.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.0823

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.3508782112478634-4.767573450422007	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYY",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.04127,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.520635,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.520635,
    "away_win_probability": 0.479365
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.04127,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYY wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "TB 4 - 5 NYY",
    "confidence": 0.5206346000000001,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.504257,
    "sample_size": 762,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5551,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.529678,
    "published_confidence": 0.520635,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 9.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 9.0,
    "home_average_margin": 1.8,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0519,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0519,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 8.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.2903,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.304,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.0823
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.022092924850034907
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.021284458417206026
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.021184364443087446
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02041682621654047
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.020409145785109578
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06067321029767718,
      "1": 0.09093750372560319,
      "2": 0.12077757988224637,
      "3": 0.14214345206270018,
      "4": 0.14823973656526146,
      "5": 0.1369934022037784,
      "6": 0.11218425522710192,
      "7": 0.08140693571068353,
      "8": 0.052346559973183784,
      "9": 0.029827175299175477,
      "10": 0.015060290439319932,
      "11": 0.00673832275010708,
      "12": 0.0026715758631615637
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06165952217048613,
      "1": 0.09235358455625822,
      "2": 0.12241078831571468,
      "3": 0.14358132920612482,
      "4": 0.1490351059839388,
      "5": 0.13689624270669776,
      "6": 0.11127735977704364,
      "7": 0.08004504140791005,
      "8": 0.05095354339301746,
      "9": 0.028702959934685895,
      "10": 0.014308407990409822,
      "11": 0.0063120187751364255,
      "12": 0.0024640957825761683
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "TB 4 - 5 NYY",
      "winner": "NYY"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "TB 4 - 5 NYY",
      "winner": "NYY"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.01,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.234,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "NYY",
      "model_winner": "NYY",
      "simulation_winner": "NYY",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "NYY",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "NYY",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.0823,
      "winner": "NYY",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
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          "9": 0.028101662993941054,
          "10": 0.013723858396809775,
          "11": 0.005904138898756552,
          "12": 0.002237551470576077
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        "away_distribution": {
          "0": 0.0601684630921428,
          "1": 0.09191390808472433,
          "2": 0.12351401537422606,
          "3": 0.14600708935208395,
          "4": 0.1518288632886838,
          "5": 0.13888566804573874,
          "6": 0.11175918295490861,
          "7": 0.07911005718595024,
          "8": 0.04926096023424061,
          "9": 0.026983404410664102,
          "10": 0.013002094131874673,
          "11": 0.0055112811163187956,
          "12": 0.002055012728443458
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        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 2.05,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.3508782112478634,
      "home_runs": 4.767573450422007,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260922_TOR@BAL

Official result pending · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Official result pending

PickBAL

Published scoreTOR 4 - 5 BAL

Final confidence50.5%

Calibrationraw 46.0% → blended 50.0%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.0% · weight 50.0% · n=537

H2H base featurehome net -9.0 · absolute 9.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.077

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.506258896656094-4.482459105338878	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "BAL",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.01,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.505,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.505,
    "away_win_probability": 0.495
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.01,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "BAL wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "TOR 4 - 5 BAL",
    "confidence": 0.505,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.4601,
    "sample_size": 537,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.54,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.50005,
    "published_confidence": 0.505,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -9.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 9.0,
    "home_average_margin": -1.8,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0519,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0519,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -7.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
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      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
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  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.0732,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.084,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.077
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.019711135626987467
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.01924440871194041
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.019020526557902075
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
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      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.01827554822520005
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.051715975310095946,
      "1": 0.07798689904068565,
      "2": 0.10549152798020964,
      "3": 0.12800074930416933,
      "4": 0.13931774596445773,
      "5": 0.13601893340409593,
      "6": 0.11912181142802214,
      "7": 0.09357982120272393,
      "8": 0.06594352089316804,
      "9": 0.04168319981470023,
      "10": 0.02363463867400586,
      "11": 0.012020869500518176,
      "12": 0.005484307483147256
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05362387796355451,
      "1": 0.08075891581216933,
      "2": 0.10881591009391336,
      "3": 0.13117889683531375,
      "4": 0.14148330846535592,
      "5": 0.13652622949236148,
      "6": 0.11786819762214445,
      "7": 0.09104305992191383,
      "8": 0.06291681157408341,
      "9": 0.03890059309204045,
      "10": 0.021518668570036772,
      "11": 0.010649868058703613,
      "12": 0.0047156624984091055
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "TOR 4 - 5 BAL",
      "winner": "BAL"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "TOR 4 - 5 BAL",
      "winner": "BAL"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0618,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.014,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "BAL",
      "model_winner": "BAL",
      "simulation_winner": "BAL",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "BAL",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "BAL",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.077,
      "winner": "BAL",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "BAL",
    "display_confidence": 0.505,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6148,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.505,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.077,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.084,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0618,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.5,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 7,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 7,
        "range": 0
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
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    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
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    "evaluation_modes": [
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    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
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      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-22T22:35:00+00:00",
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    "champion_reference": {
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      "home_win_probability": 0.508361,
      "confidence": 0.508361,
      "predicted_score": {
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            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
            "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
            "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
            "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
            "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
            "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
            "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
            "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
            "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
            "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
            "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
            "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
            "context.lineup_context_min": 0.8,
            "context.lineup_context_weight": 1.0,
            "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
            "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
            "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
            "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
            "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
            "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
            "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
            "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
            "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "candidate_prediction": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.50844,
      "confidence": 0.50844,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "total_runs": 8
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
          "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
          "config_id": "candidate-f4c3ec3952acc919",
          "config_hash": "sha256:9ca63931a023e9b6f5e0ed6f872bef54d37bd4e9dc951e5e10b28553b15e3582",
          "parent_config_id": "candidate-57e651c7f36832cf",
          "created_at_utc": "2026-09-18T09:05:32.063728+00:00",
          "parameters": {
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            "confidence.base_cap": 0.58,
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            "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
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            "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
            "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
            "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
            "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
            "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
            "h2h.history_limit": 5,
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            "player.model_weight": 0.5,
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            "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
            "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
            "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
            "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
            "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
            "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
            "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
            "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
            "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
            "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
            "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
            "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
            "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
            "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
            "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
            "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
            "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
            "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
            "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
            "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
            "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
            "context.lineup_context_min": 0.8,
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            "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
            "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
            "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
            "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
            "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
            "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
            "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
            "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
            "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
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        }
      }
    },
    "diagnostics": {
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        "applied": true,
        "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
        "raw_confidence": 0.4601,
        "sample_size": 537,
        "empirical_hit_rate": 0.54,
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      },
      "confidence_governor": {
        "applied": true,
        "policy": "align_to_calibrated_probability_v2",
        "raw_confidence": 0.50005,
        "final_confidence": 0.5084,
        "calibrated_pick_probability": 0.5084,
        "shrinkage_weight": 0.978919,
        "hard_maximum": 0.9,
        "confidence_floor": 0.505,
        "score_gap": 0.1,
        "calibration_sample_size": 537,
        "calibration_empirical_hit_rate": 0.54,
        "calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.5387,
        "calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.077,
        "reasons": [
          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability"
        ],
        "score_coherence": {
          "policy": "probability_follows_published_score_v1",
          "published_score": {
            "away_runs": 4,
            "home_runs": 5
          },
          "margin": 1,
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          "margin_implied_home_probability": 0.575796,
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          "magnitude_pull_suppressed": true,
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        "starter_experience": {
          "applied": false,
          "min_starter_games": 16,
          "shrink_factor": 1.0
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      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
        "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
        "available": true,
        "sample_size": 5,
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        "home_net_margin": -9.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 9.0,
        "home_average_margin": -1.8,
        "home_run_delta": -0.0519,
        "away_run_delta": 0.0519,
        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": 1.0
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          {
            "home_margin": -7.0
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          {
            "home_margin": -4.0
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          {
            "home_margin": 3.0
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          {
            "home_margin": -2.0
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        "adaptive_parameters": {
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      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
        "applied": false,
        "home": {
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          "games": 157,
          "wins": 76,
          "losses": 81,
          "win_pct": 0.4840764331210191,
          "runs_scored": 697,
          "runs_allowed": 727,
          "run_differential": -30,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.1910828025477707,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "TOR",
          "games": 157,
          "wins": 77,
          "losses": 80,
          "win_pct": 0.49044585987261147,
          "runs_scored": 632,
          "runs_allowed": 675,
          "run_differential": -43,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.27388535031847133,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 0.0828,
        "win_pct_edge": -0.0064,
        "quality_edge": 0.077,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.0732,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": 0.0732,
          "recent_quality_edge": 0.084,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": 0.077
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        "margin_adjustment": 0.0,
        "reason": "season quality edge below action threshold"
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
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        ],
        "home_distribution": {
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          "6": 0.12041771497817183,
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          "8": 0.06476546093019087,
          "9": 0.04003268927694483,
          "10": 0.022079161748351825,
          "11": 0.010865429714188395,
          "12": 0.00477098161404217
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        "away_distribution": {
          "0": 0.0521054929009764,
          "1": 0.0800553784456149,
          "2": 0.10944844620368394,
          "3": 0.13314987563919542,
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          "5": 0.1388479052457425,
          "6": 0.11901637935695314,
          "7": 0.0907791716798001,
          "8": 0.06161376903287184,
          "9": 0.03721186322135635,
          "10": 0.019998486761357914,
          "11": 0.00956367772526424,
          "12": 0.0040697226212484975
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        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 2.05,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.506258896656094,
      "home_runs": 4.482459105338878,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260922_WAS@DET

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickDET

Published scoreWAS 3 - 4 DET

Final confidence57.1%

Calibrationraw 61.6% → blended 59.2%

Empirical signalhit rate 56.7% · weight 50.0% · n=393

H2H base featurehome net 7.0 · absolute 7.0 · n=1

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.3898

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.5430461094700796-4.502578815622701	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	3-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	3-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	3-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	3-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	3-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "DET",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": 0.141868,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.570934,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.570934,
    "away_win_probability": 0.429066
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.141868,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "DET wins 4-3 (Extra Innings - 10)",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "WAS 3 - 4 DET",
    "confidence": 0.5709342,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.616347,
    "sample_size": 393,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5674,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.591873,
    "published_confidence": 0.570934,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 1,
    "sample_weight": 0.0167,
    "home_net_margin": 7.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 7.0,
    "home_average_margin": 7.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0583,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0583,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 7.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.4554,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.268,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.3898
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.025470097967550422
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.024126602974034805
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02390978252831813
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.023858124491298892
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.023173075846142116
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.058118244752888314,
      "1": 0.0872600001411821,
      "2": 0.11650069114566232,
      "3": 0.13830961328279126,
      "4": 0.14601141337460236,
      "5": 0.1370666553731697,
      "6": 0.11441616809899034,
      "7": 0.08492851976049325,
      "8": 0.05605705569211429,
      "9": 0.03290164292623421,
      "10": 0.017171785655444628,
      "11": 0.007969368439503811,
      "12": 0.0032888413569236268
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.08874361652502007,
      "1": 0.1304409439883232,
      "2": 0.16339903806073863,
      "3": 0.17443908923890167,
      "4": 0.15870729082451926,
      "5": 0.12305767302666601,
      "6": 0.08131661118718718,
      "7": 0.04579400181298885,
      "8": 0.02197843046858572,
      "9": 0.008989664958653396,
      "10": 0.0031336399084159355
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "WAS 3 - 4 DET",
      "winner": "DET"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "WAS 3 - 4 DET",
      "winner": "DET"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0174,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.618,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "DET",
      "model_winner": "DET",
      "simulation_winner": "DET",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 4,
        "published_winner": "DET",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5,
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
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          "5": 0.13922386778039786,
          "6": 0.11519741164532676,
          "7": 0.08427427616059066,
          "8": 0.05450930245665468,
          "9": 0.031172346965568126,
          "10": 0.015761286451314385,
          "11": 0.007045910240331832,
          "12": 0.0027848758176346536
        },
        "away_distribution": {
          "0": 0.08742060810107373,
          "1": 0.13093340957212754,
          "2": 0.1658282456140805,
          "3": 0.1775979341555168,
          "4": 0.16083800885605803,
          "5": 0.1231716731810794,
          "6": 0.07976353053444617,
          "7": 0.04367865645664134,
          "8": 0.020225792539374576,
          "9": 0.00791978150340307,
          "10": 0.002622359486198785
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 2.05,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.5430461094700796,
      "home_runs": 4.502578815622701,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

Every reviewed game

Date	Game	Pick	Final confidence	Raw confidence	Empirical hit rate	Empirical weight	Pred A-H	Actual A-H	Result	Largest recorded movement	Pipeline	Roadmap signals
20260922	20260922_ARI@COL	ARI	56.0%	69.7%	56.3%	50.0%	6.0-5.0	7-2	hit	Enhanced Prediction (-1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.697207, "sample_size": 279, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5627, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.629953, "published_confidence": 0.56, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -15.0, "absolute_net_margin": 15.0, "home_average_margin": -3.0, "home_run_delta": -0.0865, "away_run_delta": 0.0865, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": -9.0 }, { "home_margin": -8.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -1.3686, "recent_quality_edge": -0.464, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -1.052 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.014872093677049792 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.014580299872657028 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.014555154468836562 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.014269579082598903 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.014099756147751085 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.04433457063819088, "1": 0.06718185094711822, "2": 0.09221158195566188, "3": 0.11464180885414929, "4": 0.1290995226709389, "5": 0.131683176038459, "6": 0.12166341378159322, "7": 0.10181546600938646, "8": 0.07717765132408078, "9": 0.05298993807964911, "10": 0.03295484820746812, "11": 0.018563902066131982, "12": 0.009472034498917405, "13": 0.0043776528938096896, "14": 0.0018325820344451786 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.026677289003250705, "1": 0.04091487465484983, "2": 0.05822439066992085, "3": 0.07687991160668393, "4": 0.09419004280344724, "5": 0.10707332988105597, "6": 0.11293844912053376, "7": 0.11053161768049721, "8": 0.10037265881311314, "9": 0.08457237497808905, "10": 0.06611893060429451, "11": 0.04796310724042085, "12": 0.032282933864722724, "13": 0.020161501758287712, "14": 0.011683069372580426, "15": 0.006281671609572164, "16": 0.0031338463386800085 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "ARI 6 - 5 COL", "winner": "ARI" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "ARI 6 - 5 COL", "winner": "ARI" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0433, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.534, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "ARI", "model_winner": "ARI", "simulation_winner": "ARI", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 1, "published_winner": "ARI", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "ARI", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 1.052, "winner": "ARI", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260922	20260922_CHW@KC	CHW	50.5%	51.0%	54.2%	50.0%	5.0-4.0	14-11	hit	Enhanced Prediction (2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.5101, "sample_size": 496, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5423, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.5262, "published_confidence": 0.505257, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -26.0, "absolute_net_margin": 26.0, "home_average_margin": -5.2, "home_run_delta": -0.15, "away_run_delta": 0.15, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -21.0 }, { "home_margin": -4.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -1.0481, "recent_quality_edge": -0.432, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.8325 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.021807817430817302 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.020960150209752837 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.020734233527767796 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.02037449857523685 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.020092586061961053 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.06116472027796691, "1": 0.09164343066544639, "2": 0.12159270098928096, "3": 0.14286291105780963, "4": 0.14864055127496822, "5": 0.13694965478614174, "6": 0.11173529985197553, "7": 0.08072827604465013, "8": 0.05164957830671835, "9": 0.029262653469393298, "10": 0.014681365512963784, "11": 0.006522664194862652, "12": 0.002566193567822169 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.058895360538108926, "1": 0.08837995436562997, "2": 0.11780859344363724, "3": 0.13949244233770236, "4": 0.14671512749219628, "5": 0.13707227536815528, "6": 0.11375614294534321, "7": 0.08385917860026602, "8": 0.05491321355903247, "9": 0.0319413762657908, "10": 0.016503683998116553, "11": 0.007574582214063306, "12": 0.003088068871957489 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "CHW 5 - 4 KC", "winner": "CHW" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "CHW 5 - 4 KC", "winner": "CHW" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0249, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.642, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "CHW", "model_winner": "CHW", "simulation_winner": "CHW", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "CHW", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667, "draw_majority_team": "CHW", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.8325, "winner": "CHW", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260922	20260922_CIN@ATL	ATL	60.0%	90.1%	57.1%	50.0%	6.0-9.0	4-0	miss	Enhanced Prediction (2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.901014, "sample_size": 126, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5714, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.736207, "published_confidence": 0.6, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 3, "sample_weight": 0.0409, "home_net_margin": 6.0, "absolute_net_margin": 6.0, "home_average_margin": 2.0, "home_run_delta": 0.0409, "away_run_delta": -0.0409, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": 3.0 }, { "home_margin": 5.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 2.0064, "recent_quality_edge": 1.128, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 1.699 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 8, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.013024453660000096 }, { "home_runs": 7, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.012772416561326525 }, { "home_runs": 8, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.01269729685044871 }, { "home_runs": 9, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.012515392949979368 }, { "home_runs": 7, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.012451590585700547 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.016116702600689085, "1": 0.02490995211028489, "2": 0.03628007093187812, "3": 0.04979226664230673, "4": 0.06439530435130399, "5": 0.07847747801299296, "6": 0.0901227447486903, "7": 0.09752642761708144, "8": 0.09945090899792158, "9": 0.0955638706876568, "10": 0.08653209954290154, "11": 0.07383449090780747, "12": 0.059366283621663865, "13": 0.044979950660993646, "14": 0.032114164019068976, "15": 0.021605921898896013, "16": 0.013697695792725801, "17": 0.008183154789438997, "18": 0.0046067277806289214, "19": 0.002443784285068975 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.04340882314886424, "1": 0.06582015012131745, "2": 0.09051208544681454, "3": 0.11288107081659562, "4": 0.1276740150330257, "5": 0.13096364619726394, "6": 0.12183325462307243, "7": 0.10278926968216114, "8": 0.07864960777096333, "9": 0.054577317757111214, "10": 0.0343474627689033, "11": 0.019603967825542603, "12": 0.01014752539829474, "13": 0.004763686352404122, "14": 0.0020281170576656473 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 9, "score_text": "CIN 6 - 9 ATL", "winner": "ATL" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 9, "score_text": "CIN 6 - 9 ATL", "winner": "ATL" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": true, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0595, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 1.2447, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 9, "winner": "ATL", "model_winner": "ATL", "simulation_winner": "ATL", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "ATL", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.8333, "draw_majority_team": "ATL", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": true, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 3, "simulation_margin": 3, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 9 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 9 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 3, "final_margin": 3, "winner_quality_edge": 1.699, "winner": "ATL", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 9, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260922	20260922_CLE@BOS	BOS	50.5%	51.0%	54.2%	50.0%	3.0-4.0	3-2	miss	Enhanced Prediction (-2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.5101, "sample_size": 496, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5423, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.5262, "published_confidence": 0.505257, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 3, "sample_weight": 0.0409, "home_net_margin": 12.0, "absolute_net_margin": 12.0, "home_average_margin": 4.0, "home_run_delta": 0.0818, "away_run_delta": -0.0818, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 5.0 }, { "home_margin": 8.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.5288, "recent_quality_edge": -0.62, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.1268 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.03157208015782883 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.030249493781464746 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.029805065934887402 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.02855650157184715 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.028413358903600743 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.09495160569035592, "1": 0.13893679527320696, "2": 0.17169881659860178, "3": 0.1792059344800353, "4": 0.15796924183297922, "5": 0.11760552933150305, "6": 0.07394656572403184, "7": 0.03926841190560274, "8": 0.01761179929515767, "9": 0.006671126533095452, "10": 0.002134173335429836 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.09089296935682557, "1": 0.13339233051126315, "2": 0.16631740472974058, "3": 0.17617764863331667, "4": 0.1585514396386587, "5": 0.12122601825343864, "6": 0.07874586577641476, "7": 0.04345762162669757, "8": 0.02037560050200403, "9": 0.008116357165078681, "10": 0.0027467438065618024 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "CLE 3 - 4 BOS", "winner": "BOS" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "CLE 3 - 4 BOS", "winner": "BOS" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0272, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.5033, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "BOS", "model_winner": "BOS", "simulation_winner": "BOS", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "BOS", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.3333, "draw_majority_team": "CLE", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.1268, "winner": "BOS", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260922	20260922_HOU@SEA	SEA	60.0%	72.7%	55.9%	50.0%	3.0-5.0	7-0	miss	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.72737, "sample_size": 236, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5593, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.643335, "published_confidence": 0.6, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 7.0, "absolute_net_margin": 7.0, "home_average_margin": 1.4, "home_run_delta": 0.0404, "away_run_delta": -0.0404, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": 5.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": 5.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.0192, "recent_quality_edge": 0.76, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.2535 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.018994785139768024 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.018888997995317458 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.018778225703798314 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.018673644637972303 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.017619029641146693 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.03521310791219545, "1": 0.05368904465261698, "2": 0.07506452916104552, "3": 0.09623911567851039, "4": 0.11314523081517074, "5": 0.12198000643035156, "6": 0.12058931307963641, "7": 0.10931927952471, "8": 0.09087668374629834, "9": 0.06927490682343743, "10": 0.048424729153996086, "11": 0.031040322193049103, "12": 0.01824538411396884, "13": 0.009834393268892872, "14": 0.004860824062102793, "15": 0.0022031293840174084 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.07066150348715038, "1": 0.10519062513444784, "2": 0.13688777232459132, "3": 0.15572047990187401, "4": 0.1548532300340773, "5": 0.13461339000861963, "6": 0.10229389414641456, "7": 0.0679523717788645, "8": 0.03945962788198028, "9": 0.02003063921448361, "10": 0.008888533008135602, "11": 0.0034479330793607994 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "HOU 3 - 5 SEA", "winner": "SEA" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "HOU 3 - 5 SEA", "winner": "SEA" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": true, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0779, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.83, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "SEA", "model_winner": "SEA", "simulation_winner": "SEA", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "SEA", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "SEA", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": true, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": 0.2535, "winner": "SEA", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260922	20260922_LAA@OAK	LAA	53.0%	59.0%	55.6%	50.0%	5.0-4.0	7-9	miss	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.589632, "sample_size": 608, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5559, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.572766, "published_confidence": 0.53, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -9.0, "absolute_net_margin": 9.0, "home_average_margin": -1.8, "home_run_delta": -0.0519, "away_run_delta": 0.0519, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": 6.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": -7.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.8622, "recent_quality_edge": -0.352, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.6836 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01802074068732686 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01740953005386772 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.01723162970667973 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.01717736037965188 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.0166932069363516 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.05343477770460599, "1": 0.08048449357157093, "2": 0.10848806793669231, "3": 0.13086794555365955, "4": 0.14127526964097756, "5": 0.13648362713595566, "6": 0.1179985082313575, "7": 0.09129647901469569, "8": 0.06321397362774946, "9": 0.03917001191984276, "10": 0.021720802514359438, "11": 0.010779027522363118, "12": 0.004787015626169971 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.03971920077593216, "1": 0.060376326773134426, "2": 0.08365085414937108, "3": 0.10563591005741368, "4": 0.12158787892109253, "5": 0.12755764496590888, "6": 0.12197201782357538, "7": 0.10630444649981503, "8": 0.0844462091392718, "9": 0.06114295053772614, "10": 0.04035061256743805, "11": 0.02427120720779267, "12": 0.013306692762599024, "13": 0.0066494601431591385, "14": 0.0030285876757699254 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "LAA 5 - 4 OAK", "winner": "LAA" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "LAA 5 - 4 OAK", "winner": "LAA" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.1275, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.562, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "LAA", "model_winner": "LAA", "simulation_winner": "LAA", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "LAA", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "LAA", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.6836, "winner": "LAA", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260922	20260922_MIA@CHC	CHC	53.0%	72.5%	56.7%	50.0%	4.0-6.0	8-2	miss	Variance Applied (0.1009)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.72548, "sample_size": 127, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5669, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.64619, "published_confidence": 0.53, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 3, "sample_weight": 0.0409, "home_net_margin": -1.0, "absolute_net_margin": 1.0, "home_average_margin": -0.333, "home_run_delta": -0.0068, "away_run_delta": 0.0068, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -7.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": 5.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 1.0994, "recent_quality_edge": 0.632, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.9358 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.016554876461835046 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.015943673999542773 }, { "home_runs": 7, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.015904028239450838 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01579770167309165 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.015482868722313478 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.028705909740914637, "1": 0.043963329549083094, "2": 0.06229504340851287, "3": 0.08166953162028669, "4": 0.09906273005129254, "5": 0.11117424159533772, "6": 0.115436118136999, "7": 0.11089779418987658, "8": 0.09857068107377329, "9": 0.08106180355582282, "10": 0.06167773583081951, "11": 0.043419442045870386, "12": 0.028280280295517657, "13": 0.017042246250201187, "14": 0.009501969203178097, "15": 0.004901669849660955, "16": 0.0023394736028526835 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.05544302104473786, "1": 0.08339519829268809, "2": 0.11195117495432373, "3": 0.13412499460470845, "4": 0.14341158321165826, "5": 0.13685232947926243, "6": 0.11655035738501873, "7": 0.08858669026079548, "8": 0.060092018709979406, "9": 0.036379653875476474, "10": 0.0196559384248341, "11": 0.009478125489816877, "12": 0.004078914266700017 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "MIA 4 - 6 CHC", "winner": "CHC" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "MIA 4 - 6 CHC", "winner": "CHC" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0872, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.7487, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6, "winner": "CHC", "model_winner": "CHC", "simulation_winner": "CHC", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "CHC", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "CHC", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": 0.9358, "winner": "CHC", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260922	20260922_MIL@PHI	MIL	60.0%	81.3%	55.6%	50.0%	7.0-4.0	4-6	miss	Enhanced Prediction (4.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.812507, "sample_size": 721, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5562, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.684354, "published_confidence": 0.6, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 3, "sample_weight": 0.0409, "home_net_margin": -9.0, "absolute_net_margin": 9.0, "home_average_margin": -3.0, "home_run_delta": -0.0614, "away_run_delta": 0.0614, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -4.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": -6.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -1.2244, "recent_quality_edge": -1.008, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -1.1486 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.014573059704334214 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.01439655865740624 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.014198771249244232 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.014026803382411362 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 8, "probability": 0.013980176561421193 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.04966418821007597, "1": 0.0749909075192434, "2": 0.10183792629263153, "3": 0.12437874054997568, "4": 0.1366213058608974, "5": 0.13496662221817937, "6": 0.1199140291307264, "7": 0.09581848101364855, "8": 0.0688595591096189, "9": 0.04450562079397098, "10": 0.02587028174140091, "11": 0.01352455932659124, "12": 0.0063588818806453, "13": 0.002688896352394295 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.02151953985864243, "1": 0.03312541893606156, "2": 0.04765974437656828, "3": 0.0640920213014814, "4": 0.08055975903916963, "5": 0.094644259841805, "6": 0.10392794271561771, "7": 0.10666754802630818, "8": 0.10232793833529358, "9": 0.09175253390277009, "10": 0.07689601609543746, "11": 0.060235364633589535, "12": 0.04410229377193126, "13": 0.030180938645310643, "14": 0.01930484138237003, "15": 0.011541484249777918, "16": 0.006449395635557363, "17": 0.003368513606918416, "18": 0.0016444456453896439 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "MIL 7 - 4 PHI", "winner": "MIL" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "MIL 7 - 4 PHI", "winner": "MIL" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": true, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0042, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -1.1247, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "MIL", "model_winner": "MIL", "simulation_winner": "MIL", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "MIL", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5, "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": true, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 3, "simulation_margin": 3, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 3, "final_margin": 3, "winner_quality_edge": 1.1486, "winner": "MIL", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260922	20260922_MIN@SF	MIN	51.5%	51.0%	55.6%	50.0%	5.0-3.0	3-2	hit	Embedded Savant Run Environment (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.5101, "sample_size": 721, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5562, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.53315, "published_confidence": 0.515422, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 1, "sample_weight": 0.0167, "home_net_margin": 3.0, "absolute_net_margin": 3.0, "home_average_margin": 3.0, "home_run_delta": 0.025, "away_run_delta": -0.025, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 3.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.1656, "recent_quality_edge": -0.048, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.1244 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.020135194409712124 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.019499377959703138 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.019264884419349954 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.018792848496616832 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01865655006845656 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.05501378994339653, "1": 0.08277375958986602, "2": 0.1112144360187515, "3": 0.13343722828716215, "4": 0.14296845598147795, "5": 0.13678888438085227, "6": 0.11687153663434066, "7": 0.08916903504656427, "8": 0.06075286252311291, "9": 0.0369629640914412, "10": 0.020082334712323294, "11": 0.009743365132333955, "12": 0.00422134765837743 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.053040287839271005, "1": 0.07991178015129281, "2": 0.10780297291264077, "3": 0.13021639543229116, "4": 0.14083662211698436, "5": 0.13638937222788045, "6": 0.11826615020043019, "7": 0.09182382688577015, "8": 0.0638359486426912, "9": 0.039736557849543344, "10": 0.02214777845188687, "11": 0.011053125379188124, "12": 0.0049391819101295515 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "MIN 5 - 3 SF", "winner": "MIN" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "MIN 5 - 3 SF", "winner": "MIN" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0596, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.302, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 3, "winner": "MIN", "model_winner": "MIN", "simulation_winner": "MIN", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 5, "published_winner": "MIN", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.8, "draw_majority_team": "MIN", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 3 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 3 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": 0.1244, "winner": "MIN", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 3, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260922	20260922_NYM@TEX	TEX	60.1%	60.9%	57.1%	50.0%	4.0-6.0	6-3	miss	Enhanced Prediction (2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.609047, "sample_size": 634, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.571, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.590023, "published_confidence": 0.600919, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": false, "sample_size": 0, "home_net_margin": 0.0, "home_average_margin": 0.0, "home_run_delta": 0.0, "away_run_delta": 0.0 }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.1122, "recent_quality_edge": 0.404, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.2143 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.016642182831584123 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.016460461032581333 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01616913016613526 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.015992573794183618 }, { "home_runs": 7, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.015492401343453503 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.03219874046114436, "1": 0.04919334962504984, "2": 0.06920126974715787, "3": 0.08963175247116709, "4": 0.10689314838767018, "5": 0.11737564890221065, "6": 0.11867146400941878, "7": 0.11047264454756091, "8": 0.09468983445323256, "9": 0.07472950757442277, "10": 0.054302652034029016, "11": 0.03633206782962772, "12": 0.022382023577241537, "13": 0.01269546866560099, "14": 0.006630377923597569, "15": 0.0031883646493194432, "16": 0.001411685141548513 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.05251036502724695, "1": 0.07914195912844203, "2": 0.10688018789179013, "3": 0.12933506109467954, "4": 0.14023744436373733, "5": 0.13625120664940932, "6": 0.11861657441633451, "7": 0.09252925180707822, "8": 0.06467573538053574, "9": 0.04050721197602574, "10": 0.022732750324085744, "11": 0.011431422165958261, "12": 0.005150829774676596 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "NYM 4 - 6 TEX", "winner": "TEX" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "NYM 4 - 6 TEX", "winner": "TEX" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0279, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.404, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6, "winner": "TEX", "model_winner": "TEX", "simulation_winner": "TEX", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "TEX", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "TEX", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": 0.2143, "winner": "TEX", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260922	20260922_SD@LAD	LAD	53.0%	51.0%	56.0%	50.0%	4.0-6.0	0-7	hit	Embedded Savant Run Environment (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.5101, "sample_size": 384, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5599, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.535, "published_confidence": 0.53, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 8.0, "absolute_net_margin": 8.0, "home_average_margin": 1.6, "home_run_delta": 0.0462, "away_run_delta": -0.0462, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": 3.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": 5.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 1.0609, "recent_quality_edge": -0.276, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.593 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.018526113511337337 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.01844343441079805 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.018245728185989026 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01816430040059957 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.016906251202667363 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.04839716585087043, "1": 0.07314040621783151, "2": 0.09958061757233241, "3": 0.12214403755870143, "4": 0.13497388158224374, "5": 0.13437151459800353, "6": 0.1205159966244335, "7": 0.09737830032134678, "8": 0.07088587303120207, "9": 0.04648760842535588, "10": 0.02746595633600156, "11": 0.014619491110093271, "12": 0.007010512935224367, "13": 0.0030286378363596138 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.05016788973826385, "1": 0.07572568406498245, "2": 0.1027307489173719, "3": 0.1252557235850542, "4": 0.13725702553829872, "5": 0.1351796953018006, "6": 0.11965427515758538, "7": 0.09518858134499898, "8": 0.06805834208498521, "9": 0.04373385427286586, "10": 0.025257712679724494, "11": 0.013110225469352164, "12": 0.00611598173706504, "13": 0.0025642601076510244 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "SD 4 - 6 LAD", "winner": "LAD" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "SD 4 - 6 LAD", "winner": "LAD" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0408, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.066, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6, "winner": "LAD", "model_winner": "LAD", "simulation_winner": "LAD", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 5, "published_winner": "LAD", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "LAD", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": 0.593, "winner": "LAD", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260922	20260922_STL@PIT	PIT	53.9%	56.4%	56.1%	50.0%	4.0-5.0	0-2	hit	Variance Applied (0.0556)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.5636, "sample_size": 663, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5611, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.56235, "published_confidence": 0.538662, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 13.0, "absolute_net_margin": 13.0, "home_average_margin": 2.6, "home_run_delta": 0.075, "away_run_delta": -0.075, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": 4.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": 4.0 }, { "home_margin": 7.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.3622, "recent_quality_edge": 0.28, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.3334 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.01874553281085251 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.01833624081403006 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.017967726703155436 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01757541740926132 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.0174712590381 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.04396234046024391, "1": 0.06663453256853556, "2": 0.09152929969611466, "3": 0.11393657421528262, "4": 0.12853115450458066, "5": 0.1314001598484035, "6": 0.121737845739038, "7": 0.10221098289907057, "8": 0.0777699376415623, "9": 0.053625106843242114, "10": 0.033509413290951785, "11": 0.01897613280276835, "12": 0.00973847226835575, "13": 0.004529144599490551, "14": 0.001908902622359785 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.054718993236023666, "1": 0.08234674000013913, "2": 0.11070735658696271, "3": 0.13296223580136135, "4": 0.1426598935075821, "5": 0.13674052393760266, "6": 0.11708852677323993, "7": 0.08956806700028855, "8": 0.06120879356446644, "9": 0.03736768518102923, "10": 0.02037981930997646, "11": 0.009929473495083193, "12": 0.004321891606244724 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "STL 4 - 5 PIT", "winner": "PIT" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "STL 4 - 5 PIT", "winner": "PIT" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0264, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.49, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "PIT", "model_winner": "PIT", "simulation_winner": "PIT", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 1, "published_winner": "PIT", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "PIT", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.3334, "winner": "PIT", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260922	20260922_TB@NYY	NYY	53.5%	51.0%	57.4%	50.0%	3.0-4.0	0-2	hit	Variance Applied (-0.3977)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.5101, "sample_size": 418, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5742, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.54215, "published_confidence": 0.534918, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 9.0, "absolute_net_margin": 9.0, "home_average_margin": 1.8, "home_run_delta": 0.0519, "away_run_delta": -0.0519, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 8.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": 4.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.2903, "recent_quality_edge": -0.304, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.0823 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.023775234282643852 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02367872370940118 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.023560423806430014 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.023464785211227662 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.021061008414578045 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.06754021958834518, "1": 0.1007549116457567, "2": 0.1319418697833856, "3": 0.15167419255236253, "4": 0.1530570711371964, "5": 0.13558378541339447, "6": 0.1054325622477747, "7": 0.07197048287670531, "8": 0.04312674904601812, "9": 0.02268567345106441, "10": 0.010475367804362895, "11": 0.004246191086855278, "12": 0.0015109233667785398 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.07034955035165352, "1": 0.10474893686872565, "2": 0.136401658457503, "3": 0.1553357457188786, "4": 0.15470519286349196, "5": 0.1347473104393432, "6": 0.10264009569004623, "7": 0.06837474506458452, "8": 0.03983420195671947, "9": 0.020295429696302256, "10": 0.009043199450248899, "11": 0.003523933442502917 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "TB 3 - 4 NYY", "winner": "NYY" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "TB 3 - 4 NYY", "winner": "NYY" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0798, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.234, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "NYY", "model_winner": "NYY", "simulation_winner": "NYY", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 4, "published_winner": "NYY", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.75, "draw_majority_team": "NYY", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.0823, "winner": "NYY", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260922	20260922_TB@NYY_2	NYY	52.1%	50.4%	55.5%	50.0%	4.0-5.0	6-1	miss	Variance Applied (0.5833)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.504257, "sample_size": 762, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5551, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.529678, "published_confidence": 0.520635, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 9.0, "absolute_net_margin": 9.0, "home_average_margin": 1.8, "home_run_delta": 0.0519, "away_run_delta": -0.0519, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 8.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": 4.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.2903, "recent_quality_edge": -0.304, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.0823 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.022092924850034907 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.021284458417206026 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.021184364443087446 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02041682621654047 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.020409145785109578 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.06067321029767718, "1": 0.09093750372560319, "2": 0.12077757988224637, "3": 0.14214345206270018, "4": 0.14823973656526146, "5": 0.1369934022037784, "6": 0.11218425522710192, "7": 0.08140693571068353, "8": 0.052346559973183784, "9": 0.029827175299175477, "10": 0.015060290439319932, "11": 0.00673832275010708, "12": 0.0026715758631615637 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.06165952217048613, "1": 0.09235358455625822, "2": 0.12241078831571468, "3": 0.14358132920612482, "4": 0.1490351059839388, "5": 0.13689624270669776, "6": 0.11127735977704364, "7": 0.08004504140791005, "8": 0.05095354339301746, "9": 0.028702959934685895, "10": 0.014308407990409822, "11": 0.0063120187751364255, "12": 0.0024640957825761683 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "TB 4 - 5 NYY", "winner": "NYY" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "TB 4 - 5 NYY", "winner": "NYY" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.01, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.234, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "NYY", "model_winner": "NYY", "simulation_winner": "NYY", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "NYY", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "NYY", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.0823, "winner": "NYY", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260922	20260922_TOR@BAL	BAL	50.5%	46.0%	54.0%	50.0%	4.0-5.0	Official result pending	void_not_final_or_postponed	Enhanced Prediction (2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.4601, "sample_size": 537, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.54, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.50005, "published_confidence": 0.505, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -9.0, "absolute_net_margin": 9.0, "home_average_margin": -1.8, "home_run_delta": -0.0519, "away_run_delta": 0.0519, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": -7.0 }, { "home_margin": -4.0 }, { "home_margin": 3.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.0732, "recent_quality_edge": 0.084, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.077 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.019711135626987467 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.01924440871194041 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.019020526557902075 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.018570152117233833 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.01827554822520005 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.051715975310095946, "1": 0.07798689904068565, "2": 0.10549152798020964, "3": 0.12800074930416933, "4": 0.13931774596445773, "5": 0.13601893340409593, "6": 0.11912181142802214, "7": 0.09357982120272393, "8": 0.06594352089316804, "9": 0.04168319981470023, "10": 0.02363463867400586, "11": 0.012020869500518176, "12": 0.005484307483147256 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.05362387796355451, "1": 0.08075891581216933, "2": 0.10881591009391336, "3": 0.13117889683531375, "4": 0.14148330846535592, "5": 0.13652622949236148, "6": 0.11786819762214445, "7": 0.09104305992191383, "8": 0.06291681157408341, "9": 0.03890059309204045, "10": 0.021518668570036772, "11": 0.010649868058703613, "12": 0.0047156624984091055 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "TOR 4 - 5 BAL", "winner": "BAL" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "TOR 4 - 5 BAL", "winner": "BAL" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0618, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.014, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "BAL", "model_winner": "BAL", "simulation_winner": "BAL", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "BAL", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "BAL", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.077, "winner": "BAL", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260922	20260922_WAS@DET	DET	57.1%	61.6%	56.7%	50.0%	3.0-4.0	3-1	miss	Variance Applied (0.0405)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.616347, "sample_size": 393, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5674, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.591873, "published_confidence": 0.570934, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 1, "sample_weight": 0.0167, "home_net_margin": 7.0, "absolute_net_margin": 7.0, "home_average_margin": 7.0, "home_run_delta": 0.0583, "away_run_delta": -0.0583, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 7.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.4554, "recent_quality_edge": 0.268, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.3898 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.025470097967550422 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.024126602974034805 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.02390978252831813 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.023858124491298892 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.023173075846142116 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.058118244752888314, "1": 0.0872600001411821, "2": 0.11650069114566232, "3": 0.13830961328279126, "4": 0.14601141337460236, "5": 0.1370666553731697, "6": 0.11441616809899034, "7": 0.08492851976049325, "8": 0.05605705569211429, "9": 0.03290164292623421, "10": 0.017171785655444628, "11": 0.007969368439503811, "12": 0.0032888413569236268 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.08874361652502007, "1": 0.1304409439883232, "2": 0.16339903806073863, "3": 0.17443908923890167, "4": 0.15870729082451926, "5": 0.12305767302666601, "6": 0.08131661118718718, "7": 0.04579400181298885, "8": 0.02197843046858572, "9": 0.008989664958653396, "10": 0.0031336399084159355 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "WAS 3 - 4 DET", "winner": "DET" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "WAS 3 - 4 DET", "winner": "DET" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0174, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.618, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "DET", "model_winner": "DET", "simulation_winner": "DET", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 4, "published_winner": "DET", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5, "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.3898, "winner": "DET", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }

Starting-pitcher component quality

H	{ "mae": 2.0769, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": -0.1538 }
R	{ "mae": 1.6538, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.7308 }
ER	{ "mae": 1.6923, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.7692 }
BB	{ "mae": 1.0385, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.6538 }
SO	{ "mae": 2.2692, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.3462 }
HR	{ "mae": 1.0385, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.4231 }
IP_outs	{ "mae_outs": 3.7692, "mae_innings": 1.2564, "bias_outs": 1.3846 }

IP error is measured in outs. No single-outing ERA is used; ER and workload are compared directly.

Date

Game

Side

Pred starter

Actual starter

Match

Pred IP

Actual IP

Δ outs

Pred ER

Actual ER

Δ ER

H P/A

BB P/A

SO P/A

All context

20260922

20260922_ARI@COL

away

Michael Soroka

True

5.0

7.0

-1

2/2

2/1

4/9

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.450479233226837,
      "WHIP": 1.1309904153354633,
      "IP": 104.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 20,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.281,
      "recent_avg_IP": 3.867,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.0045,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0004,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9946,
      "walk_factor": 0.939,
      "homer_factor": 0.9935,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 23.5,
      "bb_percent": 6.1,
      "woba": 0.287,
      "xwoba": 0.315,
      "barrel_percent": 8.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 33.4,
      "whiff_percent": 22.5
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 83,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 20.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8,
        "prior_weight": 0.2
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "647336",
      "report_date": "20260922",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 20,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 22.1,
            "ER": 12.0,
            "R": 12.0,
            "H": 20.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 22.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 96.0,
            "Pitches": 379.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 4.0,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 4.4,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 19.2,
            "Pitches": 75.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.8358,
            "WHIP": 1.2985,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.53731,
            "H_per_IP": 0.89552,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.40299,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.98507,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08955
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 49.1,
            "ER": 20.0,
            "R": 20.0,
            "H": 37.0,
            "BB": 12.0,
            "SO": 44.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 196.0,
            "Pitches": 764.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 3.7,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 4.4,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 19.6,
            "Pitches": 76.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.6486,
            "WHIP": 0.9932,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.40541,
            "H_per_IP": 0.75,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.24324,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.89189,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08108
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 20,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 104.1,
            "ER": 40.0,
            "R": 40.0,
            "H": 92.0,
            "BB": 26.0,
            "SO": 101.0,
            "HR": 8.0,
            "BF": 429.0,
            "Pitches": 1669.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 4.6,
            "BB": 1.3,
            "SO": 5.05,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 21.45,
            "Pitches": 83.45
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.4505,
            "WHIP": 1.131,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.38339,
            "H_per_IP": 0.88179,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.2492,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.96805,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07668
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.264,
        "predicted_H": 4.186,
        "predicted_BB": 1.58,
        "predicted_SO": 4.557,
        "predicted_HR": 0.467,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.2324,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1978
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4345,
      "form_weight": 0.5655,
      "form_reliability": 0.8,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 20.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8,
        "prior_weight": 0.2
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.2,
          "final": 4.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.264,
          "final": 2.1493,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 4.186,
          "final": 3.2362,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.58,
          "final": 1.7625,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 4.557,
          "final": 4.315,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.467,
          "final": 0.2641,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.2324,
          "final": 4.2324,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1978,
          "final": 1.1978,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 49.1,
        "ER": 20,
        "H": 37,
        "BB": 12,
        "SO": 44,
        "HR": 4,
        "ERA": 3.648648648648649,
        "WHIP": 0.9932432432432433,
        "K9": 8.027027027027028,
        "HR9": 0.7297297297297298,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-15T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8987118163145282,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 20.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8,
          "prior_weight": 0.2
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "647336",
      "player_name": "Michael Soroka",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "ARI",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 0,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 0,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "ARI",
        "games": 156,
        "wins": 82,
        "losses": 74,
        "win_pct": 0.5256,
        "runs_scored": 693.0,
        "runs_allowed": 694.0,
        "run_differential": -1.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.0064,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4423,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4487,
        "offense_index": 0.9921,
        "defense_index": 1.0065,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.0,
          "run_differential": -3.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.014
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "COL",
        "games": 156,
        "wins": 57,
        "losses": 99,
        "win_pct": 0.3654,
        "runs_scored": 727.0,
        "runs_allowed": 904.0,
        "run_differential": -177.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.1346,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.6603,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.7949,
        "offense_index": 1.0407,
        "defense_index": 0.7727,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 2,
          "losses": 8,
          "win_pct": 0.2,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.4,
          "run_differential": -23.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.3588
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.3448,
        "offense_edge": -0.0079,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0407,
        "defense_strength": 0.0065,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.2273,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0124,
        "run_prevention": 0.9886,
        "strikeout": 1.0071
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "647336",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "647336",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 406.0,
            "k_percent": 23.5,
            "bb_percent": 6.1,
            "woba": 0.287,
            "xwoba": 0.315,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 37.5,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 33.4,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.3304,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.3674,
            "whiff_percent": 22.5,
            "swing_percent": 49.6
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.5,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.15,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.3113,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.595,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8957,
            "whiff_percent": 25.05,
            "swing_percent": 47.5
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.092,
            "command_and_miss": 0.1279,
            "regression_edge": -0.8,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.1071,
            "barrel_edge": -0.2,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.6429,
            "whiff_edge": -0.3643,
            "bb_edge": 0.7625,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.1155
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "647336",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 61,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 61,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 87.79524232123826,
              "release_spin_rate": 2598.719346360736,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 61,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 87.79524232123826,
                "release_spin_rate": 2598.719346360736,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.7952,
              "release_spin_rate": 2598.7193,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1155,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.8249,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.0045,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0004,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9946,
          "walk_factor": 0.939,
          "homer_factor": 0.9935,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.028,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "647336",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0004,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0004,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.939,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9935,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9946,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 20,
      "Pitches": 89,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by +6 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260922_ARI@COL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260922

20260922_ARI@COL

home

Kyle Freeland

True

4.2

3.0

-5

6/9

2/1

2/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 6.381818181818181,
      "WHIP": 1.4727272727272727,
      "IP": 128.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 24,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.347,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.8,
      "last_start_IP": 4.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.5113,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0435,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9626,
      "walk_factor": 0.915,
      "homer_factor": 1.1234,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 18.1,
      "bb_percent": 4.9,
      "woba": 0.377,
      "xwoba": 0.35,
      "barrel_percent": 10.6,
      "hard_hit_percent": 43.1,
      "whiff_percent": 22.3
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 561,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 24.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8276,
        "prior_weight": 0.1724
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "607536",
      "report_date": "20260922",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 24,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 29.0,
            "ER": 10.0,
            "R": 12.0,
            "H": 28.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 19.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 122.0,
            "Pitches": 427.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 5.6,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 3.8,
            "HR": 1.2,
            "BF": 24.4,
            "Pitches": 85.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.1034,
            "WHIP": 1.2069,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.34483,
            "H_per_IP": 0.96552,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.24138,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.65517,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.2069
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 56.1,
            "ER": 31.0,
            "R": 33.0,
            "H": 62.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 43.0,
            "HR": 11.0,
            "BF": 240.0,
            "Pitches": 854.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 3.1,
            "R": 3.3,
            "H": 6.2,
            "BB": 1.1,
            "SO": 4.3,
            "HR": 1.1,
            "BF": 24.0,
            "Pitches": 85.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.9527,
            "WHIP": 1.2959,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.5503,
            "H_per_IP": 1.10059,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.19527,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.76331,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.19527
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 24,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 128.1,
            "ER": 91.0,
            "R": 95.0,
            "H": 161.0,
            "BB": 28.0,
            "SO": 104.0,
            "HR": 27.0,
            "BF": 574.0,
            "Pitches": 2056.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 3.7917,
            "R": 3.9583,
            "H": 6.7083,
            "BB": 1.1667,
            "SO": 4.3333,
            "HR": 1.125,
            "BF": 23.9167,
            "Pitches": 85.6667
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.3818,
            "WHIP": 1.4727,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.70909,
            "H_per_IP": 1.25455,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.21818,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.81039,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.21039
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.767,
        "predicted_H": 5.921,
        "predicted_BB": 1.388,
        "predicted_SO": 4.27,
        "predicted_HR": 1.089,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.4379,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3024
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4228,
      "form_weight": 0.5772,
      "form_reliability": 0.8276,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 24.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8276,
        "prior_weight": 0.1724
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 2.767,
          "final": 3.7112,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 5.921,
          "final": 5.9544,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.388,
          "final": 1.6468,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 4.27,
          "final": 3.3102,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.089,
          "final": 1.4742,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.4379,
          "final": 4.4379,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3024,
          "final": 1.3024,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 56.1,
        "ER": 31,
        "H": 62,
        "BB": 11,
        "SO": 43,
        "HR": 11,
        "ERA": 4.952662721893492,
        "WHIP": 1.2958579881656807,
        "K9": 6.869822485207101,
        "HR9": 1.757396449704142,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 2,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-15T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.052978768177634,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 5.0,
          "predicted_H": 6.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 2.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 24.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8276,
          "prior_weight": 0.1724
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.2,
          "predicted_ER": 5,
          "predicted_H": 6,
          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 2,
          "predicted_HR": 2
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "607536",
      "player_name": "Kyle Freeland",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "COL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
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          },
          "weights": {},
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        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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          },
          "weights": {},
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        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          ],
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
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          {
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          },
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        ],
        "summary": {
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            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "COL",
        "games": 156,
        "wins": 57,
        "losses": 99,
        "win_pct": 0.3654,
        "runs_scored": 727.0,
        "runs_allowed": 904.0,
        "run_differential": -177.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.1346,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.6603,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.7949,
        "offense_index": 1.0407,
        "defense_index": 0.7727,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 2,
          "losses": 8,
          "win_pct": 0.2,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.4,
          "run_differential": -23.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.3588
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "ARI",
        "games": 156,
        "wins": 82,
        "losses": 74,
        "win_pct": 0.5256,
        "runs_scored": 693.0,
        "runs_allowed": 694.0,
        "run_differential": -1.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.0064,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4423,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4487,
        "offense_index": 0.9921,
        "defense_index": 1.0065,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.0,
          "run_differential": -3.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.014
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.3448,
        "offense_edge": 0.0407,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0079,
        "defense_strength": -0.2273,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0065,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9797,
        "run_prevention": 1.0387,
        "strikeout": 0.9903
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "607536",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "607536",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 531.0,
            "k_percent": 18.1,
            "bb_percent": 4.9,
            "woba": 0.377,
            "xwoba": 0.35,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.2,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 10.6,
            "hard_hit_percent": 43.1,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.712,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 95.1875,
            "whiff_percent": 22.3,
            "swing_percent": 51.1
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.5,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.15,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.3113,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.595,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8957,
            "whiff_percent": 25.05,
            "swing_percent": 47.5
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.9501,
            "command_and_miss": -0.1693,
            "regression_edge": 0.7714,
            "xwoba_edge": -1.1071,
            "barrel_edge": -0.7556,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.7429,
            "whiff_edge": -0.3929,
            "bb_edge": 1.0625,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.1539
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "607536",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 92,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 92,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 87.10896327807998,
              "release_spin_rate": 2265.301600180975,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 92,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 87.10896327807998,
                "release_spin_rate": 2265.301600180975,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.109,
              "release_spin_rate": 2265.3016,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1539,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.0994,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.5113,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0435,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9626,
          "walk_factor": 0.915,
          "homer_factor": 1.1234,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.027,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "607536",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0435,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0435,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.915,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.1234,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9626,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.2,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 5,
      "predicted_ER": 5,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 2,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 97,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was -2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260922_ARI@COL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260922

20260922_CHW@KC

away

Anthony Kay

True

5.0

4.0

-3

7/7

0/1

5/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "ERA": 4.409395973154362,
      "WHIP": 1.3557046979865772,
      "IP": 149.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 31,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.897,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.333,
      "last_start_IP": 4.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.3325,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0283,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9654,
      "walk_factor": 0.975,
      "homer_factor": 1.0446,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 18.1,
      "bb_percent": 7.9,
      "woba": 0.337,
      "xwoba": 0.34,
      "barrel_percent": 8.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.6,
      "whiff_percent": 22.8
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 142,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 31.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8611,
        "prior_weight": 0.1389
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "641743",
      "report_date": "20260922",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 31,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 21.2,
            "ER": 17.0,
            "R": 20.0,
            "H": 25.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 17.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 104.0,
            "Pitches": 403.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 3.4,
            "R": 4.0,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 3.4,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 20.8,
            "Pitches": 80.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 7.0615,
            "WHIP": 1.5231,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.78462,
            "H_per_IP": 1.15385,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.36923,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.78462,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.18462
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 50.2,
            "ER": 27.0,
            "R": 30.0,
            "H": 54.0,
            "BB": 13.0,
            "SO": 41.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 225.0,
            "Pitches": 852.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.7,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 5.4,
            "BB": 1.3,
            "SO": 4.1,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 22.5,
            "Pitches": 85.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.7961,
            "WHIP": 1.3224,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.53289,
            "H_per_IP": 1.06579,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.25658,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.80921,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11842
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 31,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 149.0,
            "ER": 73.0,
            "R": 80.0,
            "H": 149.0,
            "BB": 53.0,
            "SO": 121.0,
            "HR": 20.0,
            "BF": 669.0,
            "Pitches": 2649.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.3548,
            "R": 2.5806,
            "H": 4.8065,
            "BB": 1.7097,
            "SO": 3.9032,
            "HR": 0.6452,
            "BF": 21.5806,
            "Pitches": 85.4516
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.4094,
            "WHIP": 1.3557,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.48993,
            "H_per_IP": 1.0,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.3557,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.81208,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13423
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.875,
        "predicted_H": 4.994,
        "predicted_BB": 1.548,
        "predicted_SO": 3.794,
        "predicted_HR": 0.701,
        "predicted_ERA": 5.5786,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.4106
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4087,
      "form_weight": 0.5913,
      "form_reliability": 0.8611,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 31.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8611,
        "prior_weight": 0.1389
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.2,
          "form": 4.2,
          "final": 4.2,
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        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.875,
          "final": 2.9261,
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 4.994,
          "final": 5.8138,
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        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.548,
          "final": 0.9154,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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          "form": 0.701,
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        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 5.5786,
          "final": 5.5786,
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
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          "final": 1.4106,
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    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
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        "AVG": 0,
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        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 50.2,
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        "HR": 6,
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      "fielding": {
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        "games_fielded": 10,
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      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-16T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0360228938394216,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
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        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 31.0,
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          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8611,
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    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "641743",
      "player_name": "Anthony Kay",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CHW",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
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          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            {
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
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          ],
          "summary": {
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            "biggest_deboost": null
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
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          {
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          {
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          },
          {
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          },
          {
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            "before": 5.0,
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        ],
        "summary": {
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            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "CHW",
        "games": 156,
        "wins": 80,
        "losses": 76,
        "win_pct": 0.5128,
        "runs_scored": 733.0,
        "runs_allowed": 691.0,
        "run_differential": 42.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.2692,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.6987,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4295,
        "offense_index": 1.0493,
        "defense_index": 1.0109,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
          "run_differential": 3.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0439
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      "opponent": {
        "team": "KC",
        "games": 156,
        "wins": 67,
        "losses": 89,
        "win_pct": 0.4295,
        "runs_scored": 656.0,
        "runs_allowed": 758.0,
        "run_differential": -102.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.6538,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.2051,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.859,
        "offense_index": 0.9391,
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        "current_streak": "L4",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3,
          "run_differential": -11.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.2102
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.2541,
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        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0609,
        "defense_strength": 0.0109,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0784,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0129,
        "run_prevention": 0.9765,
        "strikeout": 1.0125
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "641743",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "641743",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 642.0,
            "k_percent": 18.1,
            "bb_percent": 7.9,
            "woba": 0.337,
            "xwoba": 0.34,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.2,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.6,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.5358,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.1794,
            "whiff_percent": 22.8,
            "swing_percent": 46.9
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.5,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.15,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.3113,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.595,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8957,
            "whiff_percent": 25.05,
            "swing_percent": 47.5
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.4434,
            "command_and_miss": -0.2943,
            "regression_edge": -0.0857,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.8214,
            "barrel_edge": -0.2,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.1,
            "whiff_edge": -0.3214,
            "bb_edge": 0.3125,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.011
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "641743",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 86,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 86,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.05311954879002,
              "release_spin_rate": 2291.8657796524776,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 86,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.05311954879002,
                "release_spin_rate": 2291.8657796524776,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.0531,
              "release_spin_rate": 2291.8658,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
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              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
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            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.011,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.0783,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.3325,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0283,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9654,
          "walk_factor": 0.975,
          "homer_factor": 1.0446,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.003,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "641743",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0283,
            "adjusted": 3
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          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0283,
            "adjusted": 5
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          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.975,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0446,
            "adjusted": 1
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9654,
            "adjusted": 4
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 7,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 84,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260922_CHW@KC.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260922

20260922_CHW@KC

home

Daniel Lynch IV

True

5.2

4.0

-5

3/7

3/3

4/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.28695652173913,
      "WHIP": 1.0695652173913044,
      "IP": 76.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 54,
      "role_avg_IP": 3.833,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.533,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.0294,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0025,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.958,
      "walk_factor": 0.965,
      "homer_factor": 0.9656,
      "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 16.7,
      "bb_percent": 7.4,
      "woba": 0.273,
      "xwoba": 0.309,
      "barrel_percent": 5.6,
      "hard_hit_percent": 37.2,
      "whiff_percent": 22.9
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 156,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.2,
      "season_IP": 76.2,
      "season_ERA": 3.287,
      "season_WHIP": 1.07,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 15.602,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7573,
        "prior_weight": 0.2427
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "663738",
      "report_date": "20260922",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 54,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 22.2,
            "ER": 11.0,
            "R": 11.0,
            "H": 20.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 11.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 94.0,
            "Pitches": 352.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.2,
            "R": 2.2,
            "H": 4.0,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 2.2,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 18.8,
            "Pitches": 70.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.3676,
            "WHIP": 1.1912,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.48529,
            "H_per_IP": 0.88235,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.30882,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.48529,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08824
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 32.2,
            "ER": 18.0,
            "R": 19.0,
            "H": 30.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 18.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 137.0,
            "Pitches": 492.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.1,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 1.9,
            "H": 3.0,
            "BB": 1.1,
            "SO": 1.8,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 13.7,
            "Pitches": 49.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.9592,
            "WHIP": 1.2551,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.55102,
            "H_per_IP": 0.91837,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.33673,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.55102,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12245
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 54,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 76.2,
            "ER": 28.0,
            "R": 32.0,
            "H": 59.0,
            "BB": 23.0,
            "SO": 52.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 312.0,
            "Pitches": 1146.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.1,
            "ER": 0.5185,
            "R": 0.5926,
            "H": 1.0926,
            "BB": 0.4259,
            "SO": 0.963,
            "HR": 0.1111,
            "BF": 5.7778,
            "Pitches": 21.2222
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.287,
            "WHIP": 1.0696,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.36522,
            "H_per_IP": 0.76957,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.3,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.67826,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07826
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.0,
        "predicted_ER": 1.987,
        "predicted_H": 3.641,
        "predicted_BB": 1.342,
        "predicted_SO": 2.6,
        "predicted_HR": 0.448,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.4145,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2298
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4525,
      "form_weight": 0.5475,
      "form_reliability": 0.7573,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 15.602,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7573,
        "prior_weight": 0.2427
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      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 4.0,
          "final": 4.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.987,
          "final": 1.5403,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 3.641,
          "final": 3.3509,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 1.342,
          "final": 2.0923,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.6,
          "final": 3.2336,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.448,
          "final": 0.2453,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.4145,
          "final": 4.4145,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2298,
          "final": 1.2298,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 32.2,
        "ER": 18,
        "H": 30,
        "BB": 11,
        "SO": 18,
        "HR": 4,
        "ERA": 4.959183673469387,
        "WHIP": 1.2551020408163263,
        "K9": 4.959183673469387,
        "HR9": 1.1020408163265305,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-16T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0526934765461884,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
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          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 15.602,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7573,
          "prior_weight": 0.2427
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.2,
          "predicted_ER": 1,
          "predicted_H": 3,
          "predicted_BB": 3,
          "predicted_SO": 4,
          "predicted_HR": 0
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "663738",
      "player_name": "Daniel Lynch IV",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "KC",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
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              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.2,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
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          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "KC",
        "games": 156,
        "wins": 67,
        "losses": 89,
        "win_pct": 0.4295,
        "runs_scored": 656.0,
        "runs_allowed": 758.0,
        "run_differential": -102.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.6538,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.2051,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.859,
        "offense_index": 0.9391,
        "defense_index": 0.9216,
        "current_streak": "L4",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3,
          "run_differential": -11.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.2102
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "CHW",
        "games": 156,
        "wins": 80,
        "losses": 76,
        "win_pct": 0.5128,
        "runs_scored": 733.0,
        "runs_allowed": 691.0,
        "run_differential": 42.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.2692,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.6987,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4295,
        "offense_index": 1.0493,
        "defense_index": 1.0109,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
          "run_differential": 3.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0439
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.2541,
        "offense_edge": -0.0609,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0493,
        "defense_strength": -0.0784,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0109,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9855,
        "run_prevention": 1.0284,
        "strikeout": 0.9884
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "663738",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "663738",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 287.0,
            "k_percent": 16.7,
            "bb_percent": 7.4,
            "woba": 0.273,
            "xwoba": 0.309,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 30.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 5.6,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.2,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.5637,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8722,
            "whiff_percent": 22.9,
            "swing_percent": 46.9
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.5,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.15,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.3113,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.595,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8957,
            "whiff_percent": 25.05,
            "swing_percent": 47.5
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.2964,
            "command_and_miss": -0.3543,
            "regression_edge": -1.0286,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.0643,
            "barrel_edge": 0.3556,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.1,
            "whiff_edge": -0.3071,
            "bb_edge": 0.4375,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0051
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "663738",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 65,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 65,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.7672524619299,
              "release_spin_rate": 2089.0752149624964,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 65,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.7672524619299,
                "release_spin_rate": 2089.0752149624964,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.7673,
              "release_spin_rate": 2089.0752,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0051,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.0361,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.0294,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0025,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.958,
          "walk_factor": 0.965,
          "homer_factor": 0.9656,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.036,
          "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "663738",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0025,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0025,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.965,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9656,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.958,
            "adjusted": 2
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 101,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 8",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +8; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +4."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was +3."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260922_CHW@KC.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260922

20260922_CIN@ATL

away

Brandon Williamson

True

4.0

6.0

-5

6/3

1/0

1/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 5.564885496183207,
      "WHIP": 1.534351145038168,
      "IP": 43.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 10,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.762,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.4,
      "last_start_IP": 5.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
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                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.2096,
              "release_spin_rate": 2285.3272,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1483,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.0591,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.6409,
          "sample_weight": 0.748,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0545,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9711,
          "walk_factor": 1.0696,
          "homer_factor": 1.0927,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.023,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "682227",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0408,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0408,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0521,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0693,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9784,
            "adjusted": 3
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.0,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 6,
      "predicted_ER": 6,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 1,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 20,
      "Pitches": 84,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 5",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -5; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by +6 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "MISSED_SHUTDOWN",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Model missed a shutdown outing",
      "detail": "The pitcher allowed zero earned runs after a projection of 5 ER."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260922_CIN@ATL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260922

20260922_CIN@ATL

home

JR Ritchie

True

4.2

5.0

-1

2/4

2/3

7/8

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "ERA": 5.026595744680852,
      "WHIP": 1.4680851063829787,
      "IP": 62.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 15,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.926,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.533,
      "last_start_IP": 4.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.5222,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0444,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9843,
      "walk_factor": 1.091,
      "homer_factor": 1.0939,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 20.9,
      "bb_percent": 13.7,
      "woba": 0.344,
      "xwoba": 0.349,
      "barrel_percent": 9.7,
      "hard_hit_percent": 40.9,
      "whiff_percent": 23.3
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 596,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 15.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.75,
        "prior_weight": 0.25
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "702275",
      "report_date": "20260922",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 15,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 17.2,
            "ER": 12.0,
            "R": 12.0,
            "H": 16.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 16.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 78.0,
            "Pitches": 314.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.2,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 3.2,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 3.2,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 15.6,
            "Pitches": 62.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.1132,
            "WHIP": 1.4717,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.67925,
            "H_per_IP": 0.90566,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.56604,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.90566,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.22642
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 37.0,
            "ER": 22.0,
            "R": 23.0,
            "H": 33.0,
            "BB": 22.0,
            "SO": 37.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 164.0,
            "Pitches": 656.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.2,
            "ER": 2.2,
            "R": 2.3,
            "H": 3.3,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 3.7,
            "HR": 0.7,
            "BF": 16.4,
            "Pitches": 65.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.3514,
            "WHIP": 1.4865,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.59459,
            "H_per_IP": 0.89189,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.59459,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.0,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.18919
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 15,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 62.2,
            "ER": 35.0,
            "R": 38.0,
            "H": 54.0,
            "BB": 38.0,
            "SO": 58.0,
            "HR": 11.0,
            "BF": 278.0,
            "Pitches": 1105.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 2.3333,
            "R": 2.5333,
            "H": 3.6,
            "BB": 2.5333,
            "SO": 3.8667,
            "HR": 0.7333,
            "BF": 18.5333,
            "Pitches": 73.6667
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.0266,
            "WHIP": 1.4681,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.55851,
            "H_per_IP": 0.8617,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.60638,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.92553,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.17553
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.396,
        "predicted_H": 3.672,
        "predicted_BB": 2.137,
        "predicted_SO": 3.781,
        "predicted_HR": 0.762,
        "predicted_ERA": 5.3692,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.4462
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4556,
      "form_weight": 0.5444,
      "form_reliability": 0.75,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_size": 15.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.75,
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      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.2,
          "form": 4.0,
          "final": 4.1,
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.396,
          "final": 2.2156,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 3.672,
          "final": 2.9102,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.137,
          "final": 2.0746,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 3.781,
          "final": 5.2477,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.762,
          "final": 0.4148,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 5.3692,
          "final": 5.3692,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.4462,
          "final": 1.4462,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 37.0,
        "ER": 22,
        "H": 33,
        "BB": 22,
        "SO": 37,
        "HR": 7,
        "ERA": 5.351351351351352,
        "WHIP": 1.4864864864864864,
        "K9": 9.0,
        "HR9": 1.7027027027027026,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-16T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.1025969514496632,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 7.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 15.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.75,
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "702275",
      "player_name": "JR Ritchie",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "ATL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
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            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.2,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "percent_delta": null,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.6667,
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              "delta": -0.4667,
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              "projection_effect": "worse",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
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          {
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          {
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          },
          {
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 7.0,
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        ],
        "summary": {
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          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "ATL",
        "games": 156,
        "wins": 92,
        "losses": 64,
        "win_pct": 0.5897,
        "runs_scored": 722.0,
        "runs_allowed": 602.0,
        "run_differential": 120.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.7692,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.6282,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.859,
        "offense_index": 1.032,
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        "current_streak": "W3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2,
          "run_differential": 12.0
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        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.2406
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "CIN",
        "games": 156,
        "wins": 72,
        "losses": 84,
        "win_pct": 0.4615,
        "runs_scored": 642.0,
        "runs_allowed": 805.0,
        "run_differential": -163.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.0449,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1154,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.1603,
        "offense_index": 0.9176,
        "defense_index": 0.8691,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 7.2,
          "run_differential": -41.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.2309
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.4715,
        "offense_edge": 0.032,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0824,
        "defense_strength": 0.1622,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.1309,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.4
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.027,
        "run_prevention": 0.947,
        "strikeout": 1.0207
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "702275",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "702275",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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            "sweet_spot_percent": 31.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 9.7,
            "hard_hit_percent": 40.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 80.0658,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.1006,
            "whiff_percent": 23.3,
            "swing_percent": 41.5
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          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.5,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.15,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.3113,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.595,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8957,
            "whiff_percent": 25.05,
            "swing_percent": 47.5
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.7235,
            "command_and_miss": -0.3793,
            "regression_edge": -0.1429,
            "xwoba_edge": -1.0786,
            "barrel_edge": -0.5556,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.4286,
            "whiff_edge": -0.25,
            "bb_edge": -1.1375,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0512
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "702275",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 53,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 53,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.94346012532931,
              "release_spin_rate": 2338.3616406057945,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 53,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.94346012532931,
                "release_spin_rate": 2338.3616406057945,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.9435,
              "release_spin_rate": 2338.3616,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0512,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.3656,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.5222,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0444,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9843,
          "walk_factor": 1.091,
          "homer_factor": 1.0939,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.005,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "702275",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0444,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0444,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.091,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0939,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9843,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.2,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 19,
      "Pitches": 85,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260922_CIN@ATL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260922

20260922_CLE@BOS

away

Parker Messick

True

6.0

5.0

-3

-2

1/5

2/1

8/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.5738317757009344,
      "WHIP": 1.0373831775700935,
      "IP": 178.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 30,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.944,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.867,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.5736,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9512,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.03,
      "walk_factor": 0.949,
      "homer_factor": 0.9065,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 26.2,
      "bb_percent": 6.6,
      "woba": 0.27,
      "xwoba": 0.273,
      "barrel_percent": 5.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 33.8,
      "whiff_percent": 26.0
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 6,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 30.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8571,
        "prior_weight": 0.1429
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "800048",
      "report_date": "20260922",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 30,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 29.1,
            "ER": 9.0,
            "R": 9.0,
            "H": 25.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 34.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 120.0,
            "Pitches": 483.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 1.8,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 6.8,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 24.0,
            "Pitches": 96.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.7614,
            "WHIP": 1.0909,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.30682,
            "H_per_IP": 0.85227,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.23864,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.15909,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10227
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 60.2,
            "ER": 16.0,
            "R": 17.0,
            "H": 50.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 70.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 244.0,
            "Pitches": 965.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.6,
            "R": 1.7,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 1.1,
            "SO": 7.0,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 24.4,
            "Pitches": 96.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.3736,
            "WHIP": 1.0055,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.26374,
            "H_per_IP": 0.82418,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.18132,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.15385,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0989
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 30,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 178.1,
            "ER": 51.0,
            "R": 55.0,
            "H": 138.0,
            "BB": 47.0,
            "SO": 186.0,
            "HR": 17.0,
            "BF": 711.0,
            "Pitches": 2788.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.7,
            "R": 1.8333,
            "H": 4.6,
            "BB": 1.5667,
            "SO": 6.2,
            "HR": 0.5667,
            "BF": 23.7,
            "Pitches": 92.9333
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.5738,
            "WHIP": 1.0374,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.28598,
            "H_per_IP": 0.77383,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.26355,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.04299,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09533
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.0,
        "predicted_ER": 1.916,
        "predicted_H": 5.092,
        "predicted_BB": 1.472,
        "predicted_SO": 6.636,
        "predicted_HR": 0.64,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.8741,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.094
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4104,
      "form_weight": 0.5896,
      "form_reliability": 0.8571,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 30.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8571,
        "prior_weight": 0.1429
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 6.0,
          "final": 6.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 1.916,
          "final": 2.3608,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 5.092,
          "final": 3.4127,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.472,
          "final": 1.6887,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 6.636,
          "final": 6.375,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.64,
          "final": 0.7877,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.8741,
          "final": 2.8741,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.094,
          "final": 1.094,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 60.2,
        "ER": 16,
        "H": 50,
        "BB": 11,
        "SO": 70,
        "HR": 6,
        "ERA": 2.3736263736263736,
        "WHIP": 1.0054945054945055,
        "K9": 10.384615384615383,
        "HR9": 0.8901098901098901,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 7,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-16T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.7555780919308038,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 1.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 6.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 30.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8571,
          "prior_weight": 0.1429
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 1,
          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 7,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "800048",
      "player_name": "Parker Messick",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CLE",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 1.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 1.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.1667,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
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              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.1667,
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            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 1.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.1429,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.1429,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 8.0,
            "delta": 2.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.3333,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 0,
          "better_metrics": 1,
          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 8.0,
            "delta": 2.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.3333,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "CLE",
        "games": 156,
        "wins": 81,
        "losses": 75,
        "win_pct": 0.5192,
        "runs_scored": 649.0,
        "runs_allowed": 647.0,
        "run_differential": 2.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0128,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1603,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1474,
        "offense_index": 0.9276,
        "defense_index": 1.0814,
        "current_streak": "W5",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2,
          "run_differential": 14.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0879
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "BOS",
        "games": 156,
        "wins": 84,
        "losses": 72,
        "win_pct": 0.5385,
        "runs_scored": 678.0,
        "runs_allowed": 598.0,
        "run_differential": 80.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.5128,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3462,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8333,
        "offense_index": 0.9691,
        "defense_index": 1.17,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.4,
          "run_differential": -4.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0606
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0273,
        "offense_edge": -0.0724,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0309,
        "defense_strength": 0.0814,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.17,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.3
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0048,
        "run_prevention": 0.9856,
        "strikeout": 1.0033
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "800048",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "800048",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 679.0,
            "k_percent": 26.2,
            "bb_percent": 6.6,
            "woba": 0.27,
            "xwoba": 0.273,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 31.4,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 5.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 33.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.0732,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.4321,
            "whiff_percent": 26.0,
            "swing_percent": 48.4
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.5,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.15,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.3113,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.595,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8957,
            "whiff_percent": 25.05,
            "swing_percent": 47.5
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.8283,
            "command_and_miss": 0.4514,
            "regression_edge": -0.0857,
            "xwoba_edge": 1.0929,
            "barrel_edge": 0.4667,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.5857,
            "whiff_edge": 0.1357,
            "bb_edge": 0.6375,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0121
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "800048",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 99,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 99,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.07325626493206,
              "release_spin_rate": 2104.9326510494875,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 99,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.07325626493206,
                "release_spin_rate": 2104.9326510494875,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.0733,
              "release_spin_rate": 2104.9327,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0121,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.0863,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.5736,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9512,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.03,
          "walk_factor": 0.949,
          "homer_factor": 0.9065,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.003,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "800048",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9512,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9512,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.949,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9065,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 1.03,
            "adjusted": 7
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 1,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 8,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 24,
      "Pitches": 99,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +4."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: True; actual quality start: False."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260922_CLE@BOS.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260922

20260922_CLE@BOS

home

Payton Tolle

True

5.2

-1

4/8

2/2

6/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.020979020979021,
      "WHIP": 1.06993006993007,
      "IP": 143.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 25,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.72,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.6,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.8185,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9304,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0574,
      "walk_factor": 0.949,
      "homer_factor": 0.9158,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 28.9,
      "bb_percent": 6.6,
      "woba": 0.282,
      "xwoba": 0.253,
      "barrel_percent": 6.3,
      "hard_hit_percent": 34.7,
      "whiff_percent": 28.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 41,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 25.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8333,
        "prior_weight": 0.1667
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "801139",
      "report_date": "20260922",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 25,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 28.0,
            "ER": 10.0,
            "R": 10.0,
            "H": 24.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 38.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 114.0,
            "Pitches": 478.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 4.8,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 7.6,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 22.8,
            "Pitches": 95.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.2143,
            "WHIP": 1.1071,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.35714,
            "H_per_IP": 0.85714,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.25,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.35714,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07143
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 59.0,
            "ER": 19.0,
            "R": 19.0,
            "H": 50.0,
            "BB": 13.0,
            "SO": 79.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 234.0,
            "Pitches": 919.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.9,
            "R": 1.9,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 1.3,
            "SO": 7.9,
            "HR": 0.7,
            "BF": 23.4,
            "Pitches": 91.9
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.8983,
            "WHIP": 1.0678,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.32203,
            "H_per_IP": 0.84746,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.22034,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.33898,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11864
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 25,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 143.0,
            "ER": 48.0,
            "R": 52.0,
            "H": 115.0,
            "BB": 38.0,
            "SO": 166.0,
            "HR": 15.0,
            "BF": 575.0,
            "Pitches": 2191.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 1.92,
            "R": 2.08,
            "H": 4.6,
            "BB": 1.52,
            "SO": 6.64,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 23.0,
            "Pitches": 87.64
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.021,
            "WHIP": 1.0699,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.33566,
            "H_per_IP": 0.8042,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.26573,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.16084,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1049
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.126,
        "predicted_H": 4.992,
        "predicted_BB": 1.527,
        "predicted_SO": 7.2,
        "predicted_HR": 0.598,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.3191,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.131
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4204,
      "form_weight": 0.5796,
      "form_reliability": 0.8333,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 25.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8333,
        "prior_weight": 0.1667
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.126,
          "final": 2.4935,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 4.992,
          "final": 4.5749,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.527,
          "final": 1.7259,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 7.2,
          "final": 4.5933,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 0.598,
          "final": 1.1874,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.3191,
          "final": 3.3191,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.131,
          "final": 1.131,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 59.0,
        "ER": 19,
        "H": 50,
        "BB": 13,
        "SO": 79,
        "HR": 7,
        "ERA": 2.8983050847457625,
        "WHIP": 1.0677966101694916,
        "K9": 12.05084745762712,
        "HR9": 1.0677966101694916,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 5,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-13T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8161619995486097,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 1.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 25.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8333,
          "prior_weight": 0.1667
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.2,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 4,
          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 7,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "801139",
      "player_name": "Payton Tolle",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "BOS",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 1.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.5,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 6.0,
              "percent_delta": 6.0,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 3,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 2,
            "better_metrics": 2,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 6.0,
              "percent_delta": 6.0,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.5,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 1.0,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.2,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.1429,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 2,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 1.0,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.1429,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 5.0,
            "percent_delta": 5.0,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 2,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 1,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 5.0,
            "percent_delta": 5.0,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "BOS",
        "games": 156,
        "wins": 84,
        "losses": 72,
        "win_pct": 0.5385,
        "runs_scored": 678.0,
        "runs_allowed": 598.0,
        "run_differential": 80.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.5128,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3462,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8333,
        "offense_index": 0.9691,
        "defense_index": 1.17,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.4,
          "run_differential": -4.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0606
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "CLE",
        "games": 156,
        "wins": 81,
        "losses": 75,
        "win_pct": 0.5192,
        "runs_scored": 649.0,
        "runs_allowed": 647.0,
        "run_differential": 2.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0128,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1603,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1474,
        "offense_index": 0.9276,
        "defense_index": 1.0814,
        "current_streak": "W5",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2,
          "run_differential": 14.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0879
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0273,
        "offense_edge": -0.0309,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0724,
        "defense_strength": 0.17,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0814,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.3
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0069,
        "run_prevention": 0.9728,
        "strikeout": 1.005
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "801139",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "801139",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 546.0,
            "k_percent": 28.9,
            "bb_percent": 6.6,
            "woba": 0.282,
            "xwoba": 0.253,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 30.9,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 34.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.2876,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.548,
            "whiff_percent": 28.1,
            "swing_percent": 55.4
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.5,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.15,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.3113,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.595,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8957,
            "whiff_percent": 25.05,
            "swing_percent": 47.5
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.9502,
            "command_and_miss": 0.73,
            "regression_edge": 0.8286,
            "xwoba_edge": 1.6643,
            "barrel_edge": 0.2,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.4571,
            "whiff_edge": 0.4357,
            "bb_edge": 0.6375,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.1723
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "801139",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 94,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 94,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 92.93396318599987,
              "release_spin_rate": 2262.3895801288368,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 94,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 92.93396318599987,
                "release_spin_rate": 2262.3895801288368,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 92.934,
              "release_spin_rate": 2262.3896,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.1723,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 1.2306,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.8185,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9304,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0574,
          "walk_factor": 0.949,
          "homer_factor": 0.9158,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.029,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "801139",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9304,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9304,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.949,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9158,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 1.0574,
            "adjusted": 7
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 91,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +4."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was -2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260922_CLE@BOS.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260922

20260922_HOU@SEA

away

Cristian Javier

True

5.0

2.0

-9

-3

6/1

3/2

2/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 5.311475409836065,
      "WHIP": 1.459016393442623,
      "IP": 61.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 16,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.333,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.867,
      "last_start_IP": 5.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.1999,
      "sample_weight": 0.972,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.017,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0203,
      "walk_factor": 1.0107,
      "homer_factor": 1.0205,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 21.3,
      "bb_percent": 9.7,
      "woba": 0.343,
      "xwoba": 0.332,
      "barrel_percent": 8.8,
      "hard_hit_percent": 33.5,
      "whiff_percent": 29.3
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 548,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 16.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7619,
        "prior_weight": 0.2381
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "664299",
      "report_date": "20260922",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 16,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 24.2,
            "ER": 10.0,
            "R": 10.0,
            "H": 19.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 27.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 100.0,
            "Pitches": 411.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 3.8,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 5.4,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 20.0,
            "Pitches": 82.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.6486,
            "WHIP": 1.1351,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.40541,
            "H_per_IP": 0.77027,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.36486,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.09459,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12162
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 45.2,
            "ER": 19.0,
            "R": 19.0,
            "H": 43.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 45.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 188.0,
            "Pitches": 759.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 1.9,
            "R": 1.9,
            "H": 4.3,
            "BB": 1.1,
            "SO": 4.5,
            "HR": 0.7,
            "BF": 18.8,
            "Pitches": 75.9
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.7445,
            "WHIP": 1.1825,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.41606,
            "H_per_IP": 0.94161,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.24088,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.9854,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15328
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 16,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 61.0,
            "ER": 36.0,
            "R": 36.0,
            "H": 63.0,
            "BB": 26.0,
            "SO": 57.0,
            "HR": 10.0,
            "BF": 267.0,
            "Pitches": 1064.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.2,
            "ER": 2.25,
            "R": 2.25,
            "H": 3.9375,
            "BB": 1.625,
            "SO": 3.5625,
            "HR": 0.625,
            "BF": 16.6875,
            "Pitches": 66.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.3115,
            "WHIP": 1.459,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.59016,
            "H_per_IP": 1.03279,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.42623,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.93443,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.16393
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.135,
        "predicted_H": 4.194,
        "predicted_BB": 1.591,
        "predicted_SO": 4.646,
        "predicted_HR": 0.662,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.1515,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2498
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4506,
      "form_weight": 0.5494,
      "form_reliability": 0.7619,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 16.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7619,
        "prior_weight": 0.2381
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.2,
          "form": 4.2,
          "final": 4.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.135,
          "final": 2.5248,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 4.194,
          "final": 5.0078,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 1.591,
          "final": 2.2259,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 4.646,
          "final": 3.4537,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.662,
          "final": 0.8143,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.1515,
          "final": 4.1515,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2498,
          "final": 1.2498,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
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        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
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        "H": 43,
        "BB": 11,
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        "K9": 8.868613138686133,
        "HR9": 1.3795620437956204,
        "games_pitched": 10,
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        "dominant_form": false,
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      },
      "fielding": {
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        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-16T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9142289301436859,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
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          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 2.0,
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        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 16.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7619,
          "prior_weight": 0.2381
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "664299",
      "player_name": "Cristian Javier",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "HOU",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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            "biggest_deboost": null
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
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          {
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          {
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          {
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          },
          {
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        ],
        "summary": {
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            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "HOU",
        "games": 156,
        "wins": 77,
        "losses": 79,
        "win_pct": 0.4936,
        "runs_scored": 688.0,
        "runs_allowed": 747.0,
        "run_differential": -59.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3782,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4103,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7885,
        "offense_index": 0.9844,
        "defense_index": 0.9356,
        "current_streak": "L3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 2.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6,
          "run_differential": -18.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1219
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "SEA",
        "games": 156,
        "wins": 73,
        "losses": 83,
        "win_pct": 0.4679,
        "runs_scored": 634.0,
        "runs_allowed": 690.0,
        "run_differential": -56.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.359,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0641,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4231,
        "offense_index": 0.9071,
        "defense_index": 1.0129,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8,
          "run_differential": 19.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0714
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0505,
        "offense_edge": -0.0156,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0929,
        "defense_strength": -0.0644,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0129,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9998,
        "run_prevention": 0.9941,
        "strikeout": 1.0059
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "664299",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "664299",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 243.0,
            "k_percent": 21.3,
            "bb_percent": 9.7,
            "woba": 0.343,
            "xwoba": 0.332,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 40.1,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.8,
            "hard_hit_percent": 33.5,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.3767,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.7294,
            "whiff_percent": 29.3,
            "swing_percent": 51.9
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.5,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.15,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.3113,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.595,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8957,
            "whiff_percent": 25.05,
            "swing_percent": 47.5
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.4799,
            "command_and_miss": 0.1464,
            "regression_edge": 0.3143,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.5929,
            "barrel_edge": -0.3556,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.6286,
            "whiff_edge": 0.6071,
            "bb_edge": -0.1375,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0808
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "664299",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 82,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 82,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.4152422034201,
              "release_spin_rate": 2322.226121767922,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 82,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.4152422034201,
                "release_spin_rate": 2322.226121767922,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.4152,
              "release_spin_rate": 2322.2261,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0808,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.5769,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.1999,
          "sample_weight": 0.972,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.017,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0203,
          "walk_factor": 1.0107,
          "homer_factor": 1.0205,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.011,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "664299",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0165,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0165,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0104,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0199,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0197,
            "adjusted": 5
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 2,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 24,
      "Pitches": 100,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least three innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -9 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 5",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was -5."
    },
    {
      "code": "MISSED_SHUTDOWN",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Model missed a shutdown outing",
      "detail": "The pitcher allowed zero earned runs after a projection of 3 ER."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260922_HOU@SEA.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260922

20260922_HOU@SEA

home

Logan Gilbert

True

5.2

4.0

-5

6/10

1/2

3/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "WHIP": 1.0617977528089888,
      "IP": 178.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 30,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.933,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.533,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.2422,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9794,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0614,
      "walk_factor": 0.947,
      "homer_factor": 1.0545,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 27.2,
      "bb_percent": 6.5,
      "woba": 0.297,
      "xwoba": 0.294,
      "barrel_percent": 10.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 41.0,
      "whiff_percent": 30.5
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 29,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 30.0,
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        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8571,
        "prior_weight": 0.1429
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "669302",
      "report_date": "20260922",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 30,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 27.2,
            "ER": 17.0,
            "R": 17.0,
            "H": 28.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 37.0,
            "HR": 8.0,
            "BF": 119.0,
            "Pitches": 484.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 3.4,
            "R": 3.4,
            "H": 5.6,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 7.4,
            "HR": 1.6,
            "BF": 23.8,
            "Pitches": 96.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.5301,
            "WHIP": 1.3373,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.61446,
            "H_per_IP": 1.01205,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.3253,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.33735,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.28916
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 58.0,
            "ER": 28.0,
            "R": 28.0,
            "H": 50.0,
            "BB": 21.0,
            "SO": 65.0,
            "HR": 13.0,
            "BF": 241.0,
            "Pitches": 963.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.8,
            "R": 2.8,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 2.1,
            "SO": 6.5,
            "HR": 1.3,
            "BF": 24.1,
            "Pitches": 96.3
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.3448,
            "WHIP": 1.2241,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.48276,
            "H_per_IP": 0.86207,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.36207,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.12069,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.22414
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 30,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 178.0,
            "ER": 73.0,
            "R": 73.0,
            "H": 143.0,
            "BB": 46.0,
            "SO": 194.0,
            "HR": 28.0,
            "BF": 713.0,
            "Pitches": 2841.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 2.4333,
            "R": 2.4333,
            "H": 4.7667,
            "BB": 1.5333,
            "SO": 6.4667,
            "HR": 0.9333,
            "BF": 23.7667,
            "Pitches": 94.7
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.691,
            "WHIP": 1.0618,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.41011,
            "H_per_IP": 0.80337,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.25843,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.08989,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1573
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 3.005,
        "predicted_H": 5.305,
        "predicted_BB": 1.901,
        "predicted_SO": 6.713,
        "predicted_HR": 1.299,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.7248,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2588
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4104,
      "form_weight": 0.5896,
      "form_reliability": 0.8571,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 30.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8571,
        "prior_weight": 0.1429
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 3.005,
          "final": 3.0029,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 5.305,
          "final": 5.5902,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.901,
          "final": 1.5313,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 6.713,
          "final": 4.7789,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.299,
          "final": 1.5867,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.7248,
          "final": 4.7248,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2588,
          "final": 1.2588,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 58.0,
        "ER": 28,
        "H": 50,
        "BB": 21,
        "SO": 65,
        "HR": 13,
        "ERA": 4.344827586206897,
        "WHIP": 1.2241379310344827,
        "K9": 10.086206896551724,
        "HR9": 2.0172413793103448,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 5,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-15T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9828043139846121,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 6.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 2.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 30.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8571,
          "prior_weight": 0.1429
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.2,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 6,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 7,
          "predicted_HR": 1
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "669302",
      "player_name": "Logan Gilbert",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "SEA",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 2.0
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.5,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 5.0,
              "percent_delta": 2.5,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 3,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
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            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 5.0,
              "percent_delta": 2.5,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.5,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 1.0,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.2,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -4.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.5714,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
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            "worse_metrics": 2,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 1.0,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -4.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.5714,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.5,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 2,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
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          "biggest_boost": {
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            "before": 2.0,
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            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.5,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "SEA",
        "games": 156,
        "wins": 73,
        "losses": 83,
        "win_pct": 0.4679,
        "runs_scored": 634.0,
        "runs_allowed": 690.0,
        "run_differential": -56.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.359,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0641,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4231,
        "offense_index": 0.9071,
        "defense_index": 1.0129,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8,
          "run_differential": 19.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0714
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "HOU",
        "games": 156,
        "wins": 77,
        "losses": 79,
        "win_pct": 0.4936,
        "runs_scored": 688.0,
        "runs_allowed": 747.0,
        "run_differential": -59.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3782,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4103,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7885,
        "offense_index": 0.9844,
        "defense_index": 0.9356,
        "current_streak": "L3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 2.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6,
          "run_differential": -18.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1219
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0505,
        "offense_edge": -0.0929,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0156,
        "defense_strength": 0.0129,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0644,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.003,
        "run_prevention": 0.9937,
        "strikeout": 1.0028
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "669302",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "669302",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 680.0,
            "k_percent": 27.2,
            "bb_percent": 6.5,
            "woba": 0.297,
            "xwoba": 0.294,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 36.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 10.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 41.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.0526,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.3205,
            "whiff_percent": 30.5,
            "swing_percent": 50.4
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.5,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.15,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.3113,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.595,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8957,
            "whiff_percent": 25.05,
            "swing_percent": 47.5
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.0723,
            "command_and_miss": 0.7457,
            "regression_edge": 0.0857,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.4929,
            "barrel_edge": -0.6444,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.4429,
            "whiff_edge": 0.7786,
            "bb_edge": 0.6625,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0096
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "669302",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 97,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 97,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.68670804198848,
              "release_spin_rate": 1934.7185998494679,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 97,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.68670804198848,
                "release_spin_rate": 1934.7185998494679,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.6867,
              "release_spin_rate": 1934.7186,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0096,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.0683,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.2422,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9794,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0614,
          "walk_factor": 0.947,
          "homer_factor": 1.0545,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.003,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "669302",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9794,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9794,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.947,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0545,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 1.0614,
            "adjusted": 7
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 3,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 25,
      "Pitches": 93,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +4."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260922_HOU@SEA.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260922

20260922_LAA@OAK

away

Yusei Kikuchi

True

5.0

5.1

-2

5/7

2/1

6/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 5.023255813953488,
      "WHIP": 1.5523255813953487,
      "IP": 57.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 12,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.778,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.267,
      "last_start_IP": 4.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.3402,
      "sample_weight": 0.944,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0289,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0024,
      "walk_factor": 1.0312,
      "homer_factor": 1.0949,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 22.3,
      "bb_percent": 10.8,
      "woba": 0.347,
      "xwoba": 0.339,
      "barrel_percent": 9.3,
      "hard_hit_percent": 44.8,
      "whiff_percent": 25.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
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        },
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    "stat_evolution": [
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        "stats": {
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
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        {
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          "step": "current_json_final",
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          "stats": {
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "changed_metrics": [
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    },
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        "win_pct": 0.3846,
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      "edges": {
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      "player_factors": {
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "579328",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "579328",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 236.0,
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            "xwoba": 0.339,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.7,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 9.3,
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            "avg_best_speed": 79.817,
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          "league_medians": {
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            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
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          "components": {
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            "xwoba_edge": -0.7929,
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            "pitch_design_score": 0.002
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "579328",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 78,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
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              "pitches": 78,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.89310008708637,
              "release_spin_rate": 2218.1246452962064,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
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              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
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            "pitch_mix": [
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            "summary": {
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
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        },
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    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
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      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 86,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260922_LAA@OAK.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260922

20260922_LAA@OAK

home

Brady Basso

True

4.1

2.0

-7

5/6

2/2

1/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "ERA": 4.5,
      "WHIP": 1.475,
      "IP": 40.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 24,
      "role_avg_IP": 2.444,
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      "last_start_IP": 2.2,
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
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        "profile": {
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          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
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            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
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            "primary_pitch": {
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            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.7576,
              "release_spin_rate": 2227.8676,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1176,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.84,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0065,
          "sample_weight": 0.64,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9994,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9603,
          "walk_factor": 0.9328,
          "homer_factor": 0.9698,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.045,
          "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "669620",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9996,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 0.9996,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.957,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9807,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9746,
            "adjusted": 2
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.1,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 5,
      "predicted_ER": 5,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 1,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 78,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -7 outs from the projected workload."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260922_LAA@OAK.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260922

20260922_MIA@CHC

away

Janson Junk

True

4.2

5.0

-5

6/2

4/1

5/6

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.5,
      "WHIP": 1.3421052631578947,
      "IP": 114.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 24,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.913,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.067,
      "last_start_IP": 3.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.2872,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0244,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9094,
      "walk_factor": 0.945,
      "homer_factor": 1.0125,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 16.0,
      "bb_percent": 6.4,
      "woba": 0.329,
      "xwoba": 0.322,
      "barrel_percent": 7.0,
      "hard_hit_percent": 39.1,
      "whiff_percent": 15.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 235,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 24.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8276,
        "prior_weight": 0.1724
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "676083",
      "report_date": "20260922",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 24,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 16.2,
            "ER": 11.0,
            "R": 11.0,
            "H": 20.0,
            "BB": 5.0,
            "SO": 10.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 73.0,
            "Pitches": 280.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.1,
            "ER": 2.2,
            "R": 2.2,
            "H": 4.0,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 2.0,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 14.6,
            "Pitches": 56.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.94,
            "WHIP": 1.5,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.66,
            "H_per_IP": 1.2,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.3,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.6,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 40.1,
            "ER": 17.0,
            "R": 19.0,
            "H": 42.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 21.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 171.0,
            "Pitches": 644.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.0,
            "ER": 1.7,
            "R": 1.9,
            "H": 4.2,
            "BB": 1.1,
            "SO": 2.1,
            "HR": 0.3,
            "BF": 17.1,
            "Pitches": 64.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.7934,
            "WHIP": 1.314,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.42149,
            "H_per_IP": 1.04132,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.27273,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.52066,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07438
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 24,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 114.0,
            "ER": 57.0,
            "R": 62.0,
            "H": 122.0,
            "BB": 31.0,
            "SO": 78.0,
            "HR": 14.0,
            "BF": 487.0,
            "Pitches": 1833.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.375,
            "R": 2.5833,
            "H": 5.0833,
            "BB": 1.2917,
            "SO": 3.25,
            "HR": 0.5833,
            "BF": 20.2917,
            "Pitches": 76.375
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.5,
            "WHIP": 1.3421,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.5,
            "H_per_IP": 1.07018,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.27193,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.68421,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12281
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.142,
        "predicted_H": 4.354,
        "predicted_BB": 1.195,
        "predicted_SO": 2.582,
        "predicted_HR": 0.446,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.847,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3952
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4228,
      "form_weight": 0.5772,
      "form_reliability": 0.8276,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 24.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8276,
        "prior_weight": 0.1724
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.2,
          "form": 4.0,
          "final": 4.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 2.142,
          "final": 3.3505,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 4.354,
          "final": 5.05,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 1.195,
          "final": 2.3811,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 2.582,
          "final": 3.6044,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.446,
          "final": 0.2574,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.847,
          "final": 4.847,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3952,
          "final": 1.3952,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 40.1,
        "ER": 17,
        "H": 42,
        "BB": 11,
        "SO": 21,
        "HR": 3,
        "ERA": 3.7933884297520657,
        "WHIP": 1.3140495867768593,
        "K9": 4.68595041322314,
        "HR9": 0.6694214876033058,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 1,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-15T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.923015200277003,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 5.0,
          "predicted_H": 6.0,
          "predicted_BB": 4.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 24.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8276,
          "prior_weight": 0.1724
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "676083",
      "player_name": "Janson Junk",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "MIA",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.2,
            "predicted_R": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.6667,
              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.6667,
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              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1,
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              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            "delta": 0.0,
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            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 5.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 6.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
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            "percent_delta": null,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.1,
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            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
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          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.6667,
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            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "MIA",
        "games": 156,
        "wins": 76,
        "losses": 80,
        "win_pct": 0.4872,
        "runs_scored": 692.0,
        "runs_allowed": 695.0,
        "run_differential": -3.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.0192,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4359,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4551,
        "offense_index": 0.9906,
        "defense_index": 1.0051,
        "current_streak": "L3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.3,
          "run_differential": -11.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0482
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "CHC",
        "games": 156,
        "wins": 87,
        "losses": 69,
        "win_pct": 0.5577,
        "runs_scored": 835.0,
        "runs_allowed": 683.0,
        "run_differential": 152.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.9744,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.3526,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3782,
        "offense_index": 1.1954,
        "defense_index": 1.0228,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.9,
          "run_differential": 22.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.2037
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.2519,
        "offense_edge": -0.0094,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.1954,
        "defense_strength": 0.0051,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0228,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9823,
        "run_prevention": 1.0433,
        "strikeout": 0.9768
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "676083",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "676083",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 448.0,
            "k_percent": 16.0,
            "bb_percent": 6.4,
            "woba": 0.329,
            "xwoba": 0.322,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 30.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.0,
            "hard_hit_percent": 39.1,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.3958,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.4423,
            "whiff_percent": 15.1,
            "swing_percent": 48.4
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.5,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.15,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.3113,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.595,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8957,
            "whiff_percent": 25.05,
            "swing_percent": 47.5
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.1905,
            "command_and_miss": -0.7393,
            "regression_edge": 0.2,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.3071,
            "barrel_edge": 0.0444,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.1714,
            "whiff_edge": -1.4214,
            "bb_edge": 0.6875,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.1045
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "676083",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 55,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 55,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 87.99217715516329,
              "release_spin_rate": 2229.370088419328,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 55,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 87.99217715516329,
                "release_spin_rate": 2229.370088419328,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.9922,
              "release_spin_rate": 2229.3701,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1045,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.7461,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.2872,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0244,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9094,
          "walk_factor": 0.945,
          "homer_factor": 1.0125,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.007,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "676083",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0244,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0244,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.945,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0125,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9094,
            "adjusted": 3
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.2,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 5,
      "predicted_ER": 5,
      "predicted_BB": 4,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 25,
      "Pitches": 105,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 5",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -5; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was -4."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "MISSED_SHUTDOWN",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Model missed a shutdown outing",
      "detail": "The pitcher allowed zero earned runs after a projection of 5 ER."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260922_MIA@CHC.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260922

20260922_MIA@CHC

home

Shota Imanaga

True

5.1

5.0

-1

-2

6/4

1/0

5/7

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.796039603960396,
      "WHIP": 1.1049504950495048,
      "IP": 168.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 30,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.611,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.0,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.1972,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9832,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0391,
      "walk_factor": 0.925,
      "homer_factor": 1.0265,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 24.0,
      "bb_percent": 5.4,
      "woba": 0.31,
      "xwoba": 0.301,
      "barrel_percent": 9.7,
      "hard_hit_percent": 36.3,
      "whiff_percent": 29.8
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 93,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 30.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8571,
        "prior_weight": 0.1429
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "684007",
      "report_date": "20260922",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 30,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 25.0,
            "ER": 11.0,
            "R": 12.0,
            "H": 25.0,
            "BB": 5.0,
            "SO": 24.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 105.0,
            "Pitches": 451.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.2,
            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 4.8,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 21.0,
            "Pitches": 90.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.96,
            "WHIP": 1.2,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.44,
            "H_per_IP": 1.0,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.2,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.96,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.2
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 53.1,
            "ER": 21.0,
            "R": 22.0,
            "H": 49.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 55.0,
            "HR": 12.0,
            "BF": 219.0,
            "Pitches": 907.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.1,
            "R": 2.2,
            "H": 4.9,
            "BB": 0.9,
            "SO": 5.5,
            "HR": 1.2,
            "BF": 21.9,
            "Pitches": 90.7
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.5437,
            "WHIP": 1.0875,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.39375,
            "H_per_IP": 0.91875,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.16875,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.03125,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.225
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 30,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 168.1,
            "ER": 71.0,
            "R": 73.0,
            "H": 149.0,
            "BB": 37.0,
            "SO": 164.0,
            "HR": 34.0,
            "BF": 683.0,
            "Pitches": 2707.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.3667,
            "R": 2.4333,
            "H": 4.9667,
            "BB": 1.2333,
            "SO": 5.4667,
            "HR": 1.1333,
            "BF": 22.7667,
            "Pitches": 90.2333
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.796,
            "WHIP": 1.105,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.42178,
            "H_per_IP": 0.88515,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.2198,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.97426,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.20198
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.278,
        "predicted_H": 5.015,
        "predicted_BB": 1.153,
        "predicted_SO": 5.16,
        "predicted_HR": 1.055,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.8969,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1723
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4104,
      "form_weight": 0.5896,
      "form_reliability": 0.8571,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 30.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8571,
        "prior_weight": 0.1429
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.1,
          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.278,
          "final": 2.9847,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 5.015,
          "final": 5.4192,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.153,
          "final": 1.0902,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 5.16,
          "final": 4.2736,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 1.055,
          "final": 1.8532,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.8969,
          "final": 3.8969,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1723,
          "final": 1.1723,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 53.1,
        "ER": 21,
        "H": 49,
        "BB": 9,
        "SO": 55,
        "HR": 12,
        "ERA": 3.5437499999999997,
        "WHIP": 1.0875,
        "K9": 9.28125,
        "HR9": 2.025,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 6,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-16T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8892671372604741,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 6.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 3.0,
          "predicted_HR": 3.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 30.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8571,
          "prior_weight": 0.1429
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.1,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 6,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 5,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "684007",
      "player_name": "Shota Imanaga",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CHC",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 3.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.1,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.25,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": -2.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.6667,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0438,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 2.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.6667,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 4,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 3,
            "better_metrics": 3,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 2.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.6667,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": -2.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.6667,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.1,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 1.0,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.1,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 1.0,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.25,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.3333,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0437,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 2.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.6667,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 4,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 3,
          "better_metrics": 3,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 2.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.6667,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.25,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "CHC",
        "games": 156,
        "wins": 87,
        "losses": 69,
        "win_pct": 0.5577,
        "runs_scored": 835.0,
        "runs_allowed": 683.0,
        "run_differential": 152.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.9744,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.3526,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3782,
        "offense_index": 1.1954,
        "defense_index": 1.0228,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.9,
          "run_differential": 22.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.2037
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "MIA",
        "games": 156,
        "wins": 76,
        "losses": 80,
        "win_pct": 0.4872,
        "runs_scored": 692.0,
        "runs_allowed": 695.0,
        "run_differential": -3.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.0192,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4359,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4551,
        "offense_index": 0.9906,
        "defense_index": 1.0051,
        "current_streak": "L3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.3,
          "run_differential": -11.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0482
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.2519,
        "offense_edge": 0.1954,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0094,
        "defense_strength": 0.0228,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0051,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0111,
        "run_prevention": 0.9836,
        "strikeout": 1.0083
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "684007",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "684007",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 660.0,
            "k_percent": 24.0,
            "bb_percent": 5.4,
            "woba": 0.31,
            "xwoba": 0.301,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.4,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 9.7,
            "hard_hit_percent": 36.3,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5993,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.7546,
            "whiff_percent": 29.8,
            "swing_percent": 51.6
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.5,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.15,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.3113,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.595,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8957,
            "whiff_percent": 25.05,
            "swing_percent": 47.5
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.074,
            "command_and_miss": 0.56,
            "regression_edge": 0.2571,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.2929,
            "barrel_edge": -0.5556,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.2286,
            "whiff_edge": 0.6786,
            "bb_edge": 0.9375,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.1949
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "684007",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 89,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 89,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 86.37721205669526,
              "release_spin_rate": 2035.0429365724972,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 89,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 86.37721205669526,
                "release_spin_rate": 2035.0429365724972,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 86.3772,
              "release_spin_rate": 2035.0429,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1949,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.3921,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.1972,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9832,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0391,
          "walk_factor": 0.925,
          "homer_factor": 1.0265,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.009,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "684007",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9832,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9832,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.925,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0265,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0391,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 89,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was -2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260922_MIA@CHC.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260922

20260922_MIL@PHI

away

Dustin May

True

4.2

2.0

-8

2/1

2/2

4/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.606635071090047,
      "WHIP": 1.3151658767772512,
      "IP": 140.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 29,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.851,
      "recent_avg_IP": 3.333,
      "last_start_IP": 2.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.1546,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0131,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9951,
      "walk_factor": 0.973,
      "homer_factor": 1.0505,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 22.9,
      "bb_percent": 7.8,
      "woba": 0.315,
      "xwoba": 0.322,
      "barrel_percent": 7.5,
      "hard_hit_percent": 44.2,
      "whiff_percent": 23.2
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 278,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 29.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8529,
        "prior_weight": 0.1471
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "669160",
      "report_date": "20260922",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 29,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 16.2,
            "ER": 9.0,
            "R": 9.0,
            "H": 19.0,
            "BB": 5.0,
            "SO": 19.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 76.0,
            "Pitches": 308.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.1,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 1.8,
            "H": 3.8,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 3.8,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 15.2,
            "Pitches": 61.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.86,
            "WHIP": 1.44,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.54,
            "H_per_IP": 1.14,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.3,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.14,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.18
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 42.2,
            "ER": 20.0,
            "R": 20.0,
            "H": 41.0,
            "BB": 15.0,
            "SO": 42.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 185.0,
            "Pitches": 713.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 4.1,
            "BB": 1.5,
            "SO": 4.2,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 18.5,
            "Pitches": 71.3
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.2188,
            "WHIP": 1.3125,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.46875,
            "H_per_IP": 0.96094,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.35156,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.98438,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11719
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 29,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 140.2,
            "ER": 72.0,
            "R": 75.0,
            "H": 138.0,
            "BB": 47.0,
            "SO": 137.0,
            "HR": 12.0,
            "BF": 599.0,
            "Pitches": 2305.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.4828,
            "R": 2.5862,
            "H": 4.7586,
            "BB": 1.6207,
            "SO": 4.7241,
            "HR": 0.4138,
            "BF": 20.6552,
            "Pitches": 79.4828
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.6066,
            "WHIP": 1.3152,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.51185,
            "H_per_IP": 0.98104,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.33412,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.97393,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08531
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.095,
        "predicted_H": 4.26,
        "predicted_BB": 1.367,
        "predicted_SO": 4.258,
        "predicted_HR": 0.578,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.5855,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3684
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4121,
      "form_weight": 0.5879,
      "form_reliability": 0.8529,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 29.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8529,
        "prior_weight": 0.1471
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.2,
          "form": 4.0,
          "final": 4.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.095,
          "final": 2.0558,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 4.26,
          "final": 3.3285,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.367,
          "final": 1.6279,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 4.258,
          "final": 4.1517,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.578,
          "final": 0.3398,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.5855,
          "final": 4.5855,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3684,
          "final": 1.3684,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 42.2,
        "ER": 20,
        "H": 41,
        "BB": 15,
        "SO": 42,
        "HR": 5,
        "ERA": 4.218749999999999,
        "WHIP": 1.3124999999999998,
        "K9": 8.859374999999998,
        "HR9": 1.0546874999999998,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 4,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-18T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9708296372604741,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 29.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8529,
          "prior_weight": 0.1471
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "669160",
      "player_name": "Dustin May",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "MIL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.2,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.6667,
              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.6667,
              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.6667,
            "after": 4.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.1,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.6667,
            "after": 4.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.1,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "MIL",
        "games": 156,
        "wins": 98,
        "losses": 58,
        "win_pct": 0.6282,
        "runs_scored": 802.0,
        "runs_allowed": 600.0,
        "run_differential": 202.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.2949,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.141,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8462,
        "offense_index": 1.1449,
        "defense_index": 1.1675,
        "current_streak": "W3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 8,
          "losses": 2,
          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.6,
          "run_differential": 32.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.3726
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "PHI",
        "games": 156,
        "wins": 86,
        "losses": 70,
        "win_pct": 0.5513,
        "runs_scored": 697.0,
        "runs_allowed": 668.0,
        "run_differential": 29.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1859,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4679,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2821,
        "offense_index": 0.995,
        "defense_index": 1.0487,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.8,
          "run_differential": -9.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0314
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.3412,
        "offense_edge": 0.1449,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.005,
        "defense_strength": 0.1675,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0487,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.4
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0189,
        "run_prevention": 0.9654,
        "strikeout": 1.0106
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "669160",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "669160",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 581.0,
            "k_percent": 22.9,
            "bb_percent": 7.8,
            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.322,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 36.5,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.5,
            "hard_hit_percent": 44.2,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.1537,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.6072,
            "whiff_percent": 23.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.8
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.5,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.15,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.3113,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.595,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8957,
            "whiff_percent": 25.05,
            "swing_percent": 47.5
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.2811,
            "command_and_miss": 0.0393,
            "regression_edge": -0.2,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.3071,
            "barrel_edge": -0.0667,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.9,
            "whiff_edge": -0.2643,
            "bb_edge": 0.3375,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.1573
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "669160",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 60,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 60,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 92.66624874445156,
              "release_spin_rate": 2536.673286155761,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 60,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 92.66624874445156,
                "release_spin_rate": 2536.673286155761,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 92.6662,
              "release_spin_rate": 2536.6733,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.1573,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 1.1235,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.1546,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0131,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9951,
          "walk_factor": 0.973,
          "homer_factor": 1.0505,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.007,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "669160",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0131,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0131,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.973,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0505,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9951,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.2,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 19,
      "Pitches": 85,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -8 outs from the projected workload."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260922_MIL@PHI.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260922

20260922_MIL@PHI

home

Zack Wheeler

True

6.0

5.2

-1

5/5

3/1

7/11

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.9933481152993346,
      "WHIP": 1.057649667405765,
      "IP": 150.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 26,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.782,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.0,
      "last_start_IP": 7.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.7042,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9401,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0769,
      "walk_factor": 0.971,
      "homer_factor": 0.9314,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 29.5,
      "bb_percent": 7.7,
      "woba": 0.28,
      "xwoba": 0.268,
      "barrel_percent": 6.2,
      "hard_hit_percent": 35.5,
      "whiff_percent": 30.9
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 8,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 26.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8387,
        "prior_weight": 0.1613
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "554430",
      "report_date": "20260922",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 26,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 30.0,
            "ER": 11.0,
            "R": 11.0,
            "H": 25.0,
            "BB": 13.0,
            "SO": 33.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 125.0,
            "Pitches": 507.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 2.2,
            "R": 2.2,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 2.6,
            "SO": 6.6,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 25.0,
            "Pitches": 101.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.3,
            "WHIP": 1.2667,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.36667,
            "H_per_IP": 0.83333,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.43333,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.1,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.16667
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 50.1,
            "ER": 26.0,
            "R": 27.0,
            "H": 47.0,
            "BB": 24.0,
            "SO": 60.0,
            "HR": 9.0,
            "BF": 219.0,
            "Pitches": 905.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.6,
            "R": 2.7,
            "H": 4.7,
            "BB": 2.4,
            "SO": 6.0,
            "HR": 0.9,
            "BF": 21.9,
            "Pitches": 90.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.649,
            "WHIP": 1.4106,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.51656,
            "H_per_IP": 0.93377,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.47682,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.19205,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.17881
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 26,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 150.1,
            "ER": 50.0,
            "R": 51.0,
            "H": 113.0,
            "BB": 46.0,
            "SO": 177.0,
            "HR": 20.0,
            "BF": 599.0,
            "Pitches": 2451.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 1.9231,
            "R": 1.9615,
            "H": 4.3462,
            "BB": 1.7692,
            "SO": 6.8077,
            "HR": 0.7692,
            "BF": 23.0385,
            "Pitches": 94.2692
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.9933,
            "WHIP": 1.0576,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.33259,
            "H_per_IP": 0.75166,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.30599,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.17738,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13304
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.419,
        "predicted_H": 4.932,
        "predicted_BB": 2.348,
        "predicted_SO": 6.294,
        "predicted_HR": 0.914,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.8525,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2883
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4181,
      "form_weight": 0.5819,
      "form_reliability": 0.8387,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 26.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8387,
        "prior_weight": 0.1613
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 2.419,
          "final": 3.4982,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.932,
          "final": 4.9604,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.348,
          "final": 2.6206,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 6.294,
          "final": 6.5892,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.914,
          "final": 0.5318,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.8525,
          "final": 3.8525,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2883,
          "final": 1.2883,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 50.1,
        "ER": 26,
        "H": 47,
        "BB": 24,
        "SO": 60,
        "HR": 9,
        "ERA": 4.6490066225165565,
        "WHIP": 1.4105960264900663,
        "K9": 10.728476821192054,
        "HR9": 1.6092715231788082,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 4,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-16T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0216859079558385,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 5.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 7.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 26.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8387,
          "prior_weight": 0.1613
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 5,
          "predicted_BB": 3,
          "predicted_SO": 7,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "554430",
      "player_name": "Zack Wheeler",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "PHI",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -2.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.4,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
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            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -2.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.4,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": -2.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.4,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 7.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
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          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
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            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "PHI",
        "games": 156,
        "wins": 86,
        "losses": 70,
        "win_pct": 0.5513,
        "runs_scored": 697.0,
        "runs_allowed": 668.0,
        "run_differential": 29.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1859,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4679,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2821,
        "offense_index": 0.995,
        "defense_index": 1.0487,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.8,
          "run_differential": -9.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0314
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "MIL",
        "games": 156,
        "wins": 98,
        "losses": 58,
        "win_pct": 0.6282,
        "runs_scored": 802.0,
        "runs_allowed": 600.0,
        "run_differential": 202.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.2949,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.141,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8462,
        "offense_index": 1.1449,
        "defense_index": 1.1675,
        "current_streak": "W3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 8,
          "losses": 2,
          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.6,
          "run_differential": 32.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.3726
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.3412,
        "offense_edge": -0.005,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.1449,
        "defense_strength": 0.0487,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1675,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.4
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.982,
        "run_prevention": 1.0354,
        "strikeout": 0.9782
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "554430",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "554430",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 573.0,
            "k_percent": 29.5,
            "bb_percent": 7.7,
            "woba": 0.28,
            "xwoba": 0.268,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 35.5,
            "avg_best_speed": 74.3749,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.4483,
            "whiff_percent": 30.9,
            "swing_percent": 49.7
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.5,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.15,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.3113,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.595,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8957,
            "whiff_percent": 25.05,
            "swing_percent": 47.5
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.7977,
            "command_and_miss": 0.8536,
            "regression_edge": 0.3429,
            "xwoba_edge": 1.2357,
            "barrel_edge": 0.2222,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.3429,
            "whiff_edge": 0.8357,
            "bb_edge": 0.3625,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0159
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "554430",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 102,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 102,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.1409528401879,
              "release_spin_rate": 2371.990133014401,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 102,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.1409528401879,
                "release_spin_rate": 2371.990133014401,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.141,
              "release_spin_rate": 2371.9901,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0159,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.1134,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.7042,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9401,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0769,
          "walk_factor": 0.971,
          "homer_factor": 0.9314,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.012,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "554430",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9401,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9401,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.971,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9314,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 1.0769,
            "adjusted": 8
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 26,
      "Pitches": 103,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: True; actual quality start: False."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260922_MIL@PHI.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260922

20260922_MIN@SF

away

Taj Bradley

True

6.0

-2

2/3

3/3

6/6

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.8123791102514506,
      "WHIP": 1.230174081237911,
      "IP": 172.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 30,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.744,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.333,
      "last_start_IP": 7.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.0003,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.046,
      "walk_factor": 1.019,
      "homer_factor": 1.0766,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 27.5,
      "bb_percent": 10.1,
      "woba": 0.297,
      "xwoba": 0.307,
      "barrel_percent": 9.4,
      "hard_hit_percent": 45.1,
      "whiff_percent": 27.5
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 18,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 30.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8571,
        "prior_weight": 0.1429
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "671737",
      "report_date": "20260922",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 30,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 31.2,
            "ER": 12.0,
            "R": 12.0,
            "H": 21.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 41.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 125.0,
            "Pitches": 475.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.1,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 4.2,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 8.2,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 25.0,
            "Pitches": 95.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.4105,
            "WHIP": 1.0105,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.37895,
            "H_per_IP": 0.66316,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.34737,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.29474,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12632
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 57.2,
            "ER": 26.0,
            "R": 26.0,
            "H": 45.0,
            "BB": 27.0,
            "SO": 70.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 243.0,
            "Pitches": 945.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.6,
            "R": 2.6,
            "H": 4.5,
            "BB": 2.7,
            "SO": 7.0,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 24.3,
            "Pitches": 94.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.0578,
            "WHIP": 1.2486,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.45087,
            "H_per_IP": 0.78035,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.46821,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.21387,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10405
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 30,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 172.1,
            "ER": 73.0,
            "R": 73.0,
            "H": 139.0,
            "BB": 73.0,
            "SO": 199.0,
            "HR": 23.0,
            "BF": 724.0,
            "Pitches": 2893.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.4333,
            "R": 2.4333,
            "H": 4.6333,
            "BB": 2.4333,
            "SO": 6.6333,
            "HR": 0.7667,
            "BF": 24.1333,
            "Pitches": 96.4333
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.8124,
            "WHIP": 1.2302,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.4236,
            "H_per_IP": 0.80658,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.4236,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.15474,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13346
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.549,
        "predicted_H": 4.588,
        "predicted_BB": 2.393,
        "predicted_SO": 7.139,
        "predicted_HR": 0.741,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.842,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.169
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4104,
      "form_weight": 0.5896,
      "form_reliability": 0.8571,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 30.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8571,
        "prior_weight": 0.1429
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 6.0,
          "final": 6.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.549,
          "final": 2.7341,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 4.588,
          "final": 3.5259,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.393,
          "final": 2.6421,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 7.139,
          "final": 6.6716,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.741,
          "final": 0.8473,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.842,
          "final": 3.842,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.169,
          "final": 1.169,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
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      "fielding": {
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-17T00:00:00"
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    "recent_form_boost": 0.9511245252662546,
    "stat_evolution": [
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        "stats": {
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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          "sample_size": 30.0,
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    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "671737",
      "player_name": "Taj Bradley",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "MIN",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
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          "changed_metrics": [],
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          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            {
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          ],
          "summary": {
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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        ],
        "summary": {
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          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "MIN",
        "games": 157,
        "wins": 73,
        "losses": 84,
        "win_pct": 0.465,
        "runs_scored": 714.0,
        "runs_allowed": 781.0,
        "run_differential": -67.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.4268,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5478,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9745,
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          "avg_runs_scored": 3.7,
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        "available": true,
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      "opponent": {
        "team": "SF",
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        "wins": 65,
        "losses": 92,
        "win_pct": 0.414,
        "runs_scored": 661.0,
        "runs_allowed": 742.0,
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        "run_differential_per_game": -0.5159,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.2102,
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      "edges": {
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        "offense_edge": 0.0139,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0613,
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        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
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      "player_factors": {
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        "run_prevention": 0.9956,
        "strikeout": 1.0076
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "671737",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "671737",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 696.0,
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            "woba": 0.297,
            "xwoba": 0.307,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 39.5,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 9.4,
            "hard_hit_percent": 45.1,
            "avg_best_speed": 80.6995,
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            "whiff_percent": 27.5,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.5,
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            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.3113,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.595,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8957,
            "whiff_percent": 25.05,
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          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.1761,
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            "regression_edge": -0.2857,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.1214,
            "barrel_edge": -0.4889,
            "hard_hit_edge": -1.0286,
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            "pitch_design_score": 0.1731
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "671737",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 93,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 93,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 92.94823908729474,
              "release_spin_rate": 2181.9905294160544,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 93,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 92.94823908729474,
                "release_spin_rate": 2181.9905294160544,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 92.9482,
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              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
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              "velocity_edge": 1.2363,
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              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.0003,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.046,
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          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_id": "671737",
            "espn_rank": null
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
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          "predicted_H": {
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            "adjusted": 4
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          "predicted_BB": {
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          "predicted_HR": {
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          "predicted_SO": {
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            "factor": 1.046,
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        }
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    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
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      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 24,
      "Pitches": 106,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260922_MIN@SF.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260922

20260922_MIN@SF

home

Anthony Molina

True

5.0

6.0

-1

4/4

2/1

7/6

Last 10 before this game (8 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "IP": 28.0,
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      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
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      "k_percent": 21.9,
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      "woba": 0.288,
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      "barrel_percent": 7.2,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.6,
      "whiff_percent": 23.9
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 432,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.0,
      "season_IP": 28.0,
      "season_ERA": 4.179,
      "season_WHIP": 1.107,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
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      "weights": {
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        "last_10": 0.35,
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      "effective_weights": {
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      "shrinkage": {
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      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "683627",
      "report_date": "20260922",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 8,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
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            "R": 12.0,
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            "BB": 5.0,
            "SO": 23.0,
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          "per_game": {
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            "SO": 4.6,
            "HR": 0.4,
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            "Pitches": 73.6
          },
          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.0435,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.43478,
            "H_per_IP": 0.82609,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.21739,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.0,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08696
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        },
        "last_10": {
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          "totals": {
            "IP": 28.0,
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            "R": 16.0,
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            "SO": 25.0,
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          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.1,
            "ER": 1.625,
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            "H": 3.125,
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            "HR": 0.375,
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          },
          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.1071,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.46429,
            "H_per_IP": 0.89286,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.21429,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.89286,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10714
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        },
        "season": {
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            "R": 16.0,
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            "SO": 25.0,
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          },
          "per_game": {
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            "HR": 0.375,
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            "BB_per_IP": 0.21429,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.89286,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10714
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.128,
        "predicted_H": 4.074,
        "predicted_BB": 1.259,
        "predicted_SO": 4.33,
        "predicted_HR": 0.52,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.2251,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1763
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
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      "adaptive_parameters": {
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
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      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
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          "form": 2.128,
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
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        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
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          "final": 0.2535,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.2251,
          "final": 4.2251,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1763,
          "final": 1.1763,
          "source": "form_only"
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
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      "pitching": {
        "IP": 28.0,
        "ER": 13,
        "H": 25,
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        "ERA": 4.178571428571429,
        "WHIP": 1.1071428571428572,
        "K9": 8.035714285714286,
        "HR9": 0.9642857142857143,
        "games_pitched": 8,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 8,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 8,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-16T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9640404778871128,
    "stat_evolution": [
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        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
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        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 8.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.6154,
          "prior_weight": 0.3846
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      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 4,
          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 6,
          "predicted_HR": 0
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "683627",
      "player_name": "Anthony Molina",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "SF",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
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            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.1667,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.1667,
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              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.1667,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
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          "biggest_boost": {
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            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "SF",
        "games": 157,
        "wins": 65,
        "losses": 92,
        "win_pct": 0.414,
        "runs_scored": 661.0,
        "runs_allowed": 742.0,
        "run_differential": -81.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.5159,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.2102,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7261,
        "offense_index": 0.9387,
        "defense_index": 0.9491,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.3,
          "run_differential": -9.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.2064
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "MIN",
        "games": 157,
        "wins": 73,
        "losses": 84,
        "win_pct": 0.465,
        "runs_scored": 714.0,
        "runs_allowed": 781.0,
        "run_differential": -67.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.4268,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5478,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9745,
        "offense_index": 1.0139,
        "defense_index": 0.9017,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.8,
          "run_differential": -11.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1171
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0893,
        "offense_edge": -0.0613,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0139,
        "defense_strength": -0.0509,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0983,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9943,
        "run_prevention": 1.0118,
        "strikeout": 0.9962
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "683627",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "683627",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 85.0,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 5.3,
            "woba": 0.288,
            "xwoba": 0.303,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 43.4,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.6,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.6867,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.5818,
            "whiff_percent": 23.9,
            "swing_percent": 51.3
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.5,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.15,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.3113,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.595,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8957,
            "whiff_percent": 25.05,
            "swing_percent": 47.5
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.1089,
            "command_and_miss": 0.135,
            "regression_edge": -0.4286,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.2357,
            "barrel_edge": 0.0,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.1,
            "whiff_edge": -0.1643,
            "bb_edge": 0.9625,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0534
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "683627",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 71,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 71,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.81081078691422,
              "release_spin_rate": 2116.6344098143236,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 71,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.81081078691422,
                "release_spin_rate": 2116.6344098143236,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.8108,
              "release_spin_rate": 2116.6344,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0534,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.3813,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0259,
          "sample_weight": 0.45,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9978,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.997,
          "walk_factor": 0.9654,
          "homer_factor": 0.9986,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.015,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "683627",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.999,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.999,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9844,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9994,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 0.9987,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 95,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 8 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260922_MIN@SF.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260922

20260922_NYM@TEX

away

Sean Manaea

True

5.2

6.0

3/3

4/2

6/9

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.737980769230769,
      "WHIP": 1.3197115384615385,
      "IP": 138.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 31,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.627,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.533,
      "last_start_IP": 5.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.3478,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0296,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9837,
      "walk_factor": 0.953,
      "homer_factor": 1.1084,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 22.0,
      "bb_percent": 6.8,
      "woba": 0.348,
      "xwoba": 0.337,
      "barrel_percent": 10.9,
      "hard_hit_percent": 41.5,
      "whiff_percent": 22.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 553,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 31.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8611,
        "prior_weight": 0.1389
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "640455",
      "report_date": "20260922",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 31,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 27.2,
            "ER": 21.0,
            "R": 21.0,
            "H": 33.0,
            "BB": 4.0,
            "SO": 19.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 120.0,
            "Pitches": 402.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 4.2,
            "R": 4.2,
            "H": 6.6,
            "BB": 0.8,
            "SO": 3.8,
            "HR": 1.4,
            "BF": 24.0,
            "Pitches": 80.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.8313,
            "WHIP": 1.3373,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.75904,
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        },
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          "games": 10,
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          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
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          "rates": {
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        },
        "season": {
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          },
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          "rates": {
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            "ER_per_IP": 0.52644,
            "H_per_IP": 1.02404,
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            "HR_per_IP": 0.16587
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
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        "predicted_BB": 1.306,
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
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      "form_reliability": 0.8611,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
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      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 31.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8611,
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      "applied_metrics": {
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          "final": 5.2,
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 3.4,
          "final": 2.4192,
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
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          "form": 5.987,
          "final": 4.7663,
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        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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          "form": 1.306,
          "final": 2.407,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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          "form": 4.545,
          "final": 4.731,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.127,
          "final": 0.6664,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 5.5257,
          "final": 5.5257,
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.317,
          "final": 1.317,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
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        "H": 0,
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        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
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        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 59.0,
        "ER": 31,
        "H": 60,
        "BB": 15,
        "SO": 51,
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        "games_pitched": 10,
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        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-15T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.027178948701152,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
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          "predicted_BB": 4.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
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        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 31.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8611,
          "prior_weight": 0.1389
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "640455",
      "player_name": "Sean Manaea",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "NYM",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
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              "projection_effect": "worse",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.2,
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          ],
          "summary": {
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            "biggest_deboost": {
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              "delta": -0.4667,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
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            "after": 4.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 1.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 3.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            "direction": "deboost",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
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        ],
        "summary": {
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          "biggest_boost": {
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          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
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            "delta": -0.4667,
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            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "NYM",
        "games": 156,
        "wins": 71,
        "losses": 85,
        "win_pct": 0.4551,
        "runs_scored": 668.0,
        "runs_allowed": 709.0,
        "run_differential": -41.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2628,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.2821,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5449,
        "offense_index": 0.9563,
        "defense_index": 0.9852,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2,
          "run_differential": -1.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1404
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "TEX",
        "games": 156,
        "wins": 78,
        "losses": 78,
        "win_pct": 0.5,
        "runs_scored": 653.0,
        "runs_allowed": 687.0,
        "run_differential": -34.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2179,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1859,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4038,
        "offense_index": 0.9348,
        "defense_index": 1.0168,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0,
          "run_differential": 6.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0082
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.1486,
        "offense_edge": -0.0437,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0652,
        "defense_strength": -0.0148,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0168,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.3
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9962,
        "run_prevention": 0.9985,
        "strikeout": 1.0008
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "640455",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "640455",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 578.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 6.8,
            "woba": 0.348,
            "xwoba": 0.337,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 35.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 10.9,
            "hard_hit_percent": 41.5,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5935,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.6278,
            "whiff_percent": 22.1,
            "swing_percent": 50.3
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.5,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.15,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.3113,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.595,
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            "whiff_percent": 25.05,
            "swing_percent": 47.5
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          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.6299,
            "command_and_miss": -0.0236,
            "regression_edge": 0.3143,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.7357,
            "barrel_edge": -0.8222,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.5143,
            "whiff_edge": -0.4214,
            "bb_edge": 0.5875,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.254
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "640455",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 85,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 85,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 85.32242397875616,
              "release_spin_rate": 2105.383936655872,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 85,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 85.32242397875616,
                "release_spin_rate": 2105.383936655872,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 85.3224,
              "release_spin_rate": 2105.3839,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
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              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.254,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
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              "velocity_edge": -1.814,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.3478,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0296,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9837,
          "walk_factor": 0.953,
          "homer_factor": 1.1084,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.011,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "640455",
            "espn_rank": null
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0296,
            "adjusted": 4
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          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0296,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.953,
            "adjusted": 1
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          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.1084,
            "adjusted": 1
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9837,
            "adjusted": 4
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 4,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 24,
      "Pitches": 108,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260922_NYM@TEX.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260922

20260922_NYM@TEX

home

MacKenzie Gore

True

4.2

5.0

-1

3/4

1/1

3/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.672032193158954,
      "WHIP": 1.352112676056338,
      "IP": 165.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 32,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.177,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.0,
      "last_start_IP": 4.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0126,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9989,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0146,
      "walk_factor": 1.009,
      "homer_factor": 1.0378,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 23.9,
      "bb_percent": 9.6,
      "woba": 0.319,
      "xwoba": 0.311,
      "barrel_percent": 8.5,
      "hard_hit_percent": 40.5,
      "whiff_percent": 25.6
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 204,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
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        "last_10": 0.35,
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      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 32.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
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        "data_weight": 0.8649,
        "prior_weight": 0.1351
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "669022",
      "report_date": "20260922",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 32,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.667,
      "windows": {
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          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
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          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.0,
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            "R": 3.4,
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          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 7.65,
            "WHIP": 2.25,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.85,
            "H_per_IP": 1.4,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.85,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.55,
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 50.0,
            "ER": 24.0,
            "R": 24.0,
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            "BF": 222.0,
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          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.4,
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            "H": 4.8,
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            "Pitches": 88.7
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.32,
            "WHIP": 1.46,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.48,
            "H_per_IP": 0.96,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.5,
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        },
        "season": {
          "games": 32,
          "totals": {
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            "H": 155.0,
            "BB": 69.0,
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            "BF": 720.0,
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          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.6875,
            "R": 2.6875,
            "H": 4.8438,
            "BB": 2.1562,
            "SO": 5.375,
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          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.672,
            "WHIP": 1.3521,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.51911,
            "H_per_IP": 0.93561,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.4165,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.03823,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11469
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
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        "predicted_BB": 2.797,
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        "predicted_WHIP": 1.7348
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4071,
      "form_weight": 0.5929,
      "form_reliability": 0.8649,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_size": 32.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8649,
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      "applied_metrics": {
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          "form": 4.2,
          "final": 4.2,
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.935,
          "final": 2.5544,
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 5.224,
          "final": 4.3187,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.797,
          "final": 2.0655,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 3.665,
          "final": 3.3943,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.415,
          "final": 0.6531,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 5.7133,
          "final": 5.7133,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.7348,
          "final": 1.7348,
          "source": "form_only"
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
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        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 50.0,
        "ER": 24,
        "H": 48,
        "BB": 25,
        "SO": 45,
        "HR": 5,
        "ERA": 4.32,
        "WHIP": 1.46,
        "K9": 8.1,
        "HR9": 0.9,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
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      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-16T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9859077622604742,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
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          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
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        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 32.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8649,
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "669022",
      "player_name": "MacKenzie Gore",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "TEX",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
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            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
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            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 3.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
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          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
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            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "TEX",
        "games": 156,
        "wins": 78,
        "losses": 78,
        "win_pct": 0.5,
        "runs_scored": 653.0,
        "runs_allowed": 687.0,
        "run_differential": -34.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2179,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1859,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4038,
        "offense_index": 0.9348,
        "defense_index": 1.0168,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0,
          "run_differential": 6.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0082
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "NYM",
        "games": 156,
        "wins": 71,
        "losses": 85,
        "win_pct": 0.4551,
        "runs_scored": 668.0,
        "runs_allowed": 709.0,
        "run_differential": -41.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2628,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.2821,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5449,
        "offense_index": 0.9563,
        "defense_index": 0.9852,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2,
          "run_differential": -1.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1404
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.1486,
        "offense_edge": -0.0652,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0437,
        "defense_strength": 0.0168,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0148,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.3
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0082,
        "run_prevention": 0.9839,
        "strikeout": 1.008
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "669022",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "669022",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 699.0,
            "k_percent": 23.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.6,
            "woba": 0.319,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.9,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.5,
            "hard_hit_percent": 40.5,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.3062,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.4164,
            "whiff_percent": 25.6,
            "swing_percent": 48.8
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.5,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.15,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.3113,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.595,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8957,
            "whiff_percent": 25.05,
            "swing_percent": 47.5
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.0834,
            "command_and_miss": 0.1336,
            "regression_edge": 0.2286,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.0071,
            "barrel_edge": -0.2889,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.3714,
            "whiff_edge": 0.0786,
            "bb_edge": -0.1125,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0212
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "669022",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 85,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 85,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.23611334556708,
              "release_spin_rate": 2168.650138380656,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 85,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.23611334556708,
                "release_spin_rate": 2168.650138380656,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.2361,
              "release_spin_rate": 2168.6501,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
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              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0212,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
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              "velocity_edge": 0.1515,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0126,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9989,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0146,
          "walk_factor": 1.009,
          "homer_factor": 1.0378,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.008,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "669022",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9989,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 0.9989,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.009,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.0378,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0146,
            "adjusted": 4
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.2,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 3,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 18,
      "Pitches": 77,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260922_NYM@TEX.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260922

20260922_SD@LAD

away

Michael King

True

6.0

4.0

-6

8/6

2/2

3/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.0331491712707184,
      "WHIP": 1.160220994475138,
      "IP": 181.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 31,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.839,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.4,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.0825,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.007,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9917,
      "walk_factor": 1.001,
      "homer_factor": 1.0,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 20.9,
      "bb_percent": 9.2,
      "woba": 0.292,
      "xwoba": 0.321,
      "barrel_percent": 8.4,
      "hard_hit_percent": 32.7,
      "whiff_percent": 24.6
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 12,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 31.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8611,
        "prior_weight": 0.1389
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "650633",
      "report_date": "20260922",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 31,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 32.0,
            "ER": 5.0,
            "R": 5.0,
            "H": 25.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 26.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 126.0,
            "Pitches": 490.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.1,
            "ER": 1.0,
            "R": 1.0,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 5.2,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 25.2,
            "Pitches": 98.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.4062,
            "WHIP": 1.0938,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.15625,
            "H_per_IP": 0.78125,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.3125,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.8125,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0625
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 61.2,
            "ER": 18.0,
            "R": 19.0,
            "H": 51.0,
            "BB": 19.0,
            "SO": 51.0,
            "HR": 9.0,
            "BF": 245.0,
            "Pitches": 968.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 1.9,
            "H": 5.1,
            "BB": 1.9,
            "SO": 5.1,
            "HR": 0.9,
            "BF": 24.5,
            "Pitches": 96.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.627,
            "WHIP": 1.1351,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.29189,
            "H_per_IP": 0.82703,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.30811,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.82703,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.14595
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 31,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 181.0,
            "ER": 61.0,
            "R": 63.0,
            "H": 142.0,
            "BB": 68.0,
            "SO": 154.0,
            "HR": 20.0,
            "BF": 736.0,
            "Pitches": 2900.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.9677,
            "R": 2.0323,
            "H": 4.5806,
            "BB": 2.1935,
            "SO": 4.9677,
            "HR": 0.6452,
            "BF": 23.7419,
            "Pitches": 93.5484
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.0331,
            "WHIP": 1.1602,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.33702,
            "H_per_IP": 0.78453,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.37569,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.85083,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1105
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.0,
        "predicted_ER": 1.7,
        "predicted_H": 5.046,
        "predicted_BB": 2.028,
        "predicted_SO": 5.154,
        "predicted_HR": 0.661,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.4964,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1542
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4087,
      "form_weight": 0.5913,
      "form_reliability": 0.8611,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_size": 31.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8611,
        "prior_weight": 0.1389
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      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 6.0,
          "final": 6.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 1.7,
          "final": 2.64,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 8.0,
          "form": 5.046,
          "final": 6.2533,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.028,
          "final": 2.0166,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 5.154,
          "final": 4.2737,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.661,
          "final": 0.7995,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.4964,
          "final": 2.4964,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1542,
          "final": 1.1542,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 61.2,
        "ER": 18,
        "H": 51,
        "BB": 19,
        "SO": 51,
        "HR": 9,
        "ERA": 2.627027027027027,
        "WHIP": 1.135135135135135,
        "K9": 7.443243243243242,
        "HR9": 1.3135135135135134,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 8,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-17T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.7873266811793931,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 8.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 3.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 31.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8611,
          "prior_weight": 0.1389
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      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 8,
          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 5,
          "predicted_HR": 1
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "650633",
      "player_name": "Michael King",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "SD",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 8.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 8.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.25,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 2.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.6667,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
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          ],
          "summary": {
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            "biggest_boost": {
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            "biggest_deboost": {
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              "percent_delta": -0.25,
              "direction": "deboost",
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 8.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
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              "delta": -2.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.4,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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          {
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          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
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        "games": 156,
        "wins": 87,
        "losses": 69,
        "win_pct": 0.5577,
        "runs_scored": 690.0,
        "runs_allowed": 649.0,
        "run_differential": 41.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.2628,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4231,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1603,
        "offense_index": 0.9861,
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          "run_differential": 24.0
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        "available": true,
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      "opponent": {
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      "edges": {
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      "player_factors": {
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
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        "profile": {
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          "pitcher_id": "650633",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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          "league_medians": {
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          "components": {
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
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            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 97,
            "primary_pitch": {
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              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 97,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.9666257983146,
                "release_spin_rate": 2288.299466647343,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.9666,
              "release_spin_rate": 2288.2995,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0499,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.3563,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.0825,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.007,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9917,
          "walk_factor": 1.001,
          "homer_factor": 1.0,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.029,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "650633",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.007,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.007,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.001,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.0,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9917,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 8,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 3,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 29,
      "Pitches": 120,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -6 outs from the projected workload."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260922_SD@LAD.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260922

20260922_SD@LAD

home

Brock Stewart

True

4.1

1.0

-10

-2

3/1

4/0

5/1

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.189189189189189,
      "WHIP": 0.9324324324324323,
      "IP": 24.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 25,
      "role_avg_IP": 0.987,
      "recent_avg_IP": 0.933,
      "last_start_IP": 0.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.4256,
      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9638,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0148,
      "walk_factor": 1.0041,
      "homer_factor": 0.9241,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 24.5,
      "bb_percent": 9.6,
      "woba": 0.248,
      "xwoba": 0.245,
      "barrel_percent": 4.8,
      "hard_hit_percent": 25.8,
      "whiff_percent": 28.2
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 254,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 5.02,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.501,
        "prior_weight": 0.499
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "592779",
      "report_date": "20260922",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 25,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 0.0,
            "R": 0.0,
            "H": 2.0,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 4.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 15.0,
            "Pitches": 68.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.0,
            "ER": 0.0,
            "R": 0.0,
            "H": 0.4,
            "BB": 0.2,
            "SO": 0.8,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 3.0,
            "Pitches": 13.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 0.0,
            "WHIP": 0.6429,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.0,
            "H_per_IP": 0.42857,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.21429,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.85714,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 9.0,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 8.0,
            "BB": 4.0,
            "SO": 7.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 35.0,
            "Pitches": 123.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.0,
            "ER": 0.2,
            "R": 0.3,
            "H": 0.8,
            "BB": 0.4,
            "SO": 0.7,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 3.5,
            "Pitches": 12.3
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.0,
            "WHIP": 1.3333,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.22222,
            "H_per_IP": 0.88889,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.44444,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.77778,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 25,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 24.2,
            "ER": 6.0,
            "R": 8.0,
            "H": 14.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 23.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 93.0,
            "Pitches": 351.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.0,
            "ER": 0.24,
            "R": 0.32,
            "H": 0.56,
            "BB": 0.36,
            "SO": 0.92,
            "HR": 0.08,
            "BF": 3.72,
            "Pitches": 14.04
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.1892,
            "WHIP": 0.9324,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.24324,
            "H_per_IP": 0.56757,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.36486,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.93243,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08108
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 2.2,
        "predicted_ER": 0.846,
        "predicted_H": 2.127,
        "predicted_BB": 0.933,
        "predicted_SO": 2.373,
        "predicted_HR": 0.22,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.86,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.149
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.5608,
      "form_weight": 0.4392,
      "form_reliability": 0.501,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 5.02,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.501,
        "prior_weight": 0.499
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.1,
          "form": 2.2,
          "final": 3.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 0.846,
          "final": 1.4932,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.127,
          "final": 2.6166,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 0.933,
          "final": 2.6531,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 2.373,
          "final": 3.8463,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.22,
          "final": 0.6574,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.86,
          "final": 2.86,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.149,
          "final": 1.149,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 8.1,
        "ER": 2,
        "H": 8,
        "BB": 4,
        "SO": 6,
        "HR": 0,
        "ERA": 2.16,
        "WHIP": 1.4400000000000002,
        "K9": 6.480000000000001,
        "HR9": 0.0,
        "games_pitched": 9,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-20T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9289927210843056,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 4.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 5.02,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.501,
          "prior_weight": 0.499
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "592779",
      "player_name": "Brock Stewart",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "LAD",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.1,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.3333,
              "after": 4.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0538,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
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            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.3333,
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              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0538,
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              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 4.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 3.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
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            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.3333,
            "after": 4.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0538,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
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          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.3333,
            "after": 4.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0538,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "LAD",
        "games": 156,
        "wins": 96,
        "losses": 60,
        "win_pct": 0.6154,
        "runs_scored": 780.0,
        "runs_allowed": 587.0,
        "run_differential": 193.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.2372,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.0,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7628,
        "offense_index": 1.1147,
        "defense_index": 1.192,
        "current_streak": "W4",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.8,
          "run_differential": 24.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.3198
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "SD",
        "games": 156,
        "wins": 87,
        "losses": 69,
        "win_pct": 0.5577,
        "runs_scored": 690.0,
        "runs_allowed": 649.0,
        "run_differential": 41.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.2628,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4231,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1603,
        "offense_index": 0.9861,
        "defense_index": 1.0781,
        "current_streak": "W5",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 9,
          "losses": 1,
          "win_pct": 0.9,
          "avg_runs_scored": 7.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7,
          "run_differential": 24.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.2213
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0985,
        "offense_edge": 0.1147,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0139,
        "defense_strength": 0.192,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0781,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0103,
        "run_prevention": 0.9737,
        "strikeout": 1.0041
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "592779",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "592779",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 86.0,
            "k_percent": 24.5,
            "bb_percent": 9.6,
            "woba": 0.248,
            "xwoba": 0.245,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 24.2,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 4.8,
            "hard_hit_percent": 25.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 66.3437,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 92.2968,
            "whiff_percent": 28.2,
            "swing_percent": 49.9
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.5,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.15,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.3113,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.595,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8957,
            "whiff_percent": 25.05,
            "swing_percent": 47.5
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 1.5205,
            "command_and_miss": 0.3021,
            "regression_edge": 0.0857,
            "xwoba_edge": 1.8929,
            "barrel_edge": 0.5333,
            "hard_hit_edge": 1.7286,
            "whiff_edge": 0.45,
            "bb_edge": -0.1125,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0883
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "592779",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 10,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 10,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 91.43371502899491,
              "release_spin_rate": 2369.028774217187,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 10,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 91.43371502899491,
                "release_spin_rate": 2369.028774217187,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 91.4337,
              "release_spin_rate": 2369.0288,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0883,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.6305,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.4256,
          "sample_weight": 0.45,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9638,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0148,
          "walk_factor": 1.0041,
          "homer_factor": 0.9241,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.003,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "592779",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9837,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9837,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0018,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9658,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0067,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.1,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 4,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 92,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least three innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -10 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -4."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260922_SD@LAD.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260922

20260922_STL@PIT

away

Andre Pallante

True

5.1

6.0

-1

2/3

1/2

10/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.6953642384105962,
      "WHIP": 1.2582781456953642,
      "IP": 151.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 27,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.593,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.4,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0286,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9976,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9471,
      "walk_factor": 0.967,
      "homer_factor": 0.936,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 16.5,
      "bb_percent": 7.5,
      "woba": 0.301,
      "xwoba": 0.309,
      "barrel_percent": 4.9,
      "hard_hit_percent": 34.2,
      "whiff_percent": 21.2
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 73,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 27.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
        "prior_weight": 0.1562
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "669467",
      "report_date": "20260922",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 27,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 27.0,
            "ER": 12.0,
            "R": 14.0,
            "H": 29.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 14.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 112.0,
            "Pitches": 444.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.8,
            "H": 5.8,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 2.8,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 22.4,
            "Pitches": 88.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.0,
            "WHIP": 1.4444,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.44444,
            "H_per_IP": 1.07407,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.37037,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.51852,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.03704
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 56.0,
            "ER": 24.0,
            "R": 26.0,
            "H": 54.0,
            "BB": 20.0,
            "SO": 34.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 231.0,
            "Pitches": 912.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.6,
            "H": 5.4,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 3.4,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 23.1,
            "Pitches": 91.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.8571,
            "WHIP": 1.3214,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.42857,
            "H_per_IP": 0.96429,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.35714,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.60714,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.03571
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 27,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 151.0,
            "ER": 62.0,
            "R": 66.0,
            "H": 143.0,
            "BB": 47.0,
            "SO": 104.0,
            "HR": 11.0,
            "BF": 629.0,
            "Pitches": 2462.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.2963,
            "R": 2.4444,
            "H": 5.2963,
            "BB": 1.7407,
            "SO": 3.8519,
            "HR": 0.4074,
            "BF": 23.2963,
            "Pitches": 91.1852
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.6954,
            "WHIP": 1.2583,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.4106,
            "H_per_IP": 0.94702,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.31126,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.68874,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07285
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.438,
        "predicted_H": 5.519,
        "predicted_BB": 1.961,
        "predicted_SO": 3.506,
        "predicted_HR": 0.33,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.9984,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3629
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.416,
      "form_weight": 0.584,
      "form_reliability": 0.8438,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 27.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
        "prior_weight": 0.1562
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.1,
          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.438,
          "final": 2.2558,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 5.519,
          "final": 4.0551,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.961,
          "final": 1.5612,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 10.0,
          "form": 3.506,
          "final": 6.2075,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 0.33,
          "final": 1.0247,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.9984,
          "final": 3.9984,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3629,
          "final": 1.3629,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 56.0,
        "ER": 24,
        "H": 54,
        "BB": 20,
        "SO": 34,
        "HR": 2,
        "ERA": 3.857142857142857,
        "WHIP": 1.3214285714285714,
        "K9": 5.464285714285714,
        "HR9": 0.32142857142857145,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-15T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9303720479747599,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 10.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 27.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8438,
          "prior_weight": 0.1562
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "669467",
      "player_name": "Andre Pallante",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "STL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 10.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.1,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 10.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0438,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 10.0,
              "after": 10.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0438,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0437,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 10.0,
            "after": 10.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
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          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0437,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "STL",
        "games": 156,
        "wins": 76,
        "losses": 80,
        "win_pct": 0.4872,
        "runs_scored": 704.0,
        "runs_allowed": 727.0,
        "run_differential": -23.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.1474,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5128,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6603,
        "offense_index": 1.0062,
        "defense_index": 0.9624,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.4,
          "run_differential": -12.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.064
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "PIT",
        "games": 156,
        "wins": 79,
        "losses": 77,
        "win_pct": 0.5064,
        "runs_scored": 748.0,
        "runs_allowed": 719.0,
        "run_differential": 29.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1859,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.7949,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.609,
        "offense_index": 1.0691,
        "defense_index": 0.9731,
        "current_streak": "W4",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6,
          "run_differential": -5.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0632
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.1272,
        "offense_edge": 0.0062,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0691,
        "defense_strength": -0.0376,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0269,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.991,
        "run_prevention": 1.0212,
        "strikeout": 0.9907
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "669467",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "669467",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 598.0,
            "k_percent": 16.5,
            "bb_percent": 7.5,
            "woba": 0.301,
            "xwoba": 0.309,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 30.6,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 4.9,
            "hard_hit_percent": 34.2,
            "avg_best_speed": 75.5032,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.4717,
            "whiff_percent": 21.2,
            "swing_percent": 44.8
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.5,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.15,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.3113,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.595,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8957,
            "whiff_percent": 25.05,
            "swing_percent": 47.5
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.3032,
            "command_and_miss": -0.4571,
            "regression_edge": -0.2286,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.0643,
            "barrel_edge": 0.5111,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.5286,
            "whiff_edge": -0.55,
            "bb_edge": 0.4125,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0073
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "669467",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 89,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 89,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.9870971466055,
              "release_spin_rate": 2284.8010573767824,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 89,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.9870971466055,
                "release_spin_rate": 2284.8010573767824,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.9871,
              "release_spin_rate": 2284.8011,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0073,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.0519,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0286,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9976,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9471,
          "walk_factor": 0.967,
          "homer_factor": 0.936,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.008,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "669467",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9976,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9976,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.967,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.936,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9471,
            "adjusted": 3
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 10,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 19,
      "Pitches": 89,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260922_STL@PIT.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260922

20260922_STL@PIT

home

Jared Jones

True

5.0

7.0

-1

3/1

0/0

4/9

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
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      "WHIP": 1.1911764705882353,
      "IP": 90.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 19,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.772,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.333,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.4335,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9632,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0814,
      "walk_factor": 0.981,
      "homer_factor": 0.9909,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 28.7,
      "bb_percent": 8.2,
      "woba": 0.3,
      "xwoba": 0.287,
      "barrel_percent": 7.6,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.7,
      "whiff_percent": 32.5
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 105,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
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      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 19.0,
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      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "683003",
      "report_date": "20260922",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 19,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
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          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
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            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 8.0,
            "H": 21.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 37.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 111.0,
            "Pitches": 445.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
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            "R": 1.6,
            "H": 4.2,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 7.4,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 22.2,
            "Pitches": 89.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.7,
            "WHIP": 1.1625,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.3,
            "H_per_IP": 0.7875,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.375,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.3875,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0375
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 50.2,
            "ER": 24.0,
            "R": 24.0,
            "H": 45.0,
            "BB": 19.0,
            "SO": 61.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 217.0,
            "Pitches": 842.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 4.5,
            "BB": 1.9,
            "SO": 6.1,
            "HR": 0.7,
            "BF": 21.7,
            "Pitches": 84.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.2632,
            "WHIP": 1.2632,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.47368,
            "H_per_IP": 0.88816,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.375,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.20395,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13816
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 19,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 90.2,
            "ER": 42.0,
            "R": 43.0,
            "H": 77.0,
            "BB": 31.0,
            "SO": 109.0,
            "HR": 12.0,
            "BF": 380.0,
            "Pitches": 1493.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.2105,
            "R": 2.2632,
            "H": 4.0526,
            "BB": 1.6316,
            "SO": 5.7368,
            "HR": 0.6316,
            "BF": 20.0,
            "Pitches": 78.5789
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.1691,
            "WHIP": 1.1912,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.46324,
            "H_per_IP": 0.84926,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.34191,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.20221,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13235
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.116,
        "predicted_H": 4.384,
        "predicted_BB": 1.874,
        "predicted_SO": 6.148,
        "predicted_HR": 0.525,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.7593,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2353
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.438,
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      "form_reliability": 0.7917,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_size": 19.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7917,
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      "applied_metrics": {
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          "form": 5.0,
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.116,
          "final": 1.6272,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 4.384,
          "final": 3.7778,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.874,
          "final": 1.0532,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 6.148,
          "final": 5.2072,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.525,
          "final": 0.295,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.7593,
          "final": 3.7593,
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2353,
          "final": 1.2353,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 50.2,
        "ER": 24,
        "H": 45,
        "BB": 19,
        "SO": 61,
        "HR": 7,
        "ERA": 4.263157894736842,
        "WHIP": 1.263157894736842,
        "K9": 10.835526315789473,
        "HR9": 1.2434210526315788,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 4,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-16T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9745919727867899,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
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          "sample_size": 19.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7917,
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "683003",
      "player_name": "Jared Jones",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "PIT",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
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            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
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          {
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        ],
        "summary": {
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          "biggest_boost": null,
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          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "PIT",
        "games": 156,
        "wins": 79,
        "losses": 77,
        "win_pct": 0.5064,
        "runs_scored": 748.0,
        "runs_allowed": 719.0,
        "run_differential": 29.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1859,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.7949,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.609,
        "offense_index": 1.0691,
        "defense_index": 0.9731,
        "current_streak": "W4",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6,
          "run_differential": -5.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0632
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "STL",
        "games": 156,
        "wins": 76,
        "losses": 80,
        "win_pct": 0.4872,
        "runs_scored": 704.0,
        "runs_allowed": 727.0,
        "run_differential": -23.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.1474,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5128,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6603,
        "offense_index": 1.0062,
        "defense_index": 0.9624,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.4,
          "run_differential": -12.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.064
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.1272,
        "offense_edge": 0.0691,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0062,
        "defense_strength": -0.0269,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0376,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.004,
        "run_prevention": 0.9973,
        "strikeout": 1.0033
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "683003",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "683003",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 356.0,
            "k_percent": 28.7,
            "bb_percent": 8.2,
            "woba": 0.3,
            "xwoba": 0.287,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 35.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.6,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.645,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.1422,
            "whiff_percent": 32.5,
            "swing_percent": 48.6
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.5,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.15,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.3113,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.595,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8957,
            "whiff_percent": 25.05,
            "swing_percent": 47.5
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.2788,
            "command_and_miss": 0.8571,
            "regression_edge": 0.3714,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.6929,
            "barrel_edge": -0.0889,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.1143,
            "whiff_edge": 1.0643,
            "bb_edge": 0.2375,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.2169
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "683003",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 87,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 87,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 93.73058494859055,
              "release_spin_rate": 2516.3391420607936,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 87,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 93.73058494859055,
                "release_spin_rate": 2516.3391420607936,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 93.7306,
              "release_spin_rate": 2516.3391,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.2169,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 1.5492,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.4335,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9632,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0814,
          "walk_factor": 0.981,
          "homer_factor": 0.9909,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.013,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "683003",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9632,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9632,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.981,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9909,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 1.0814,
            "adjusted": 8
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 18,
      "Pitches": 76,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by +6 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260922_STL@PIT.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260922

20260922_TB@NYY

away

Nick Martinez

Drew Rasmussen

False

6.0

6.2

5/1

0/3

5/11

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.941634241245136,
      "WHIP": 1.0680933852140078,
      "IP": 171.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 29,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.908,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.933,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.0706,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.006,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9151,
      "walk_factor": 0.887,
      "homer_factor": 0.9595,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 14.8,
      "bb_percent": 3.5,
      "woba": 0.29,
      "xwoba": 0.309,
      "barrel_percent": 6.7,
      "hard_hit_percent": 32.7,
      "whiff_percent": 17.3
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 20,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 29.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8529,
        "prior_weight": 0.1471
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "607259",
      "report_date": "20260922",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 29,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 29.2,
            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 8.0,
            "H": 20.0,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 18.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 108.0,
            "Pitches": 397.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.6,
            "R": 1.6,
            "H": 4.0,
            "BB": 0.4,
            "SO": 3.6,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 21.6,
            "Pitches": 79.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.427,
            "WHIP": 0.7416,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.26966,
            "H_per_IP": 0.67416,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.06742,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.60674,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13483
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 60.0,
            "ER": 24.0,
            "R": 24.0,
            "H": 54.0,
            "BB": 4.0,
            "SO": 39.0,
            "HR": 10.0,
            "BF": 230.0,
            "Pitches": 816.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 5.4,
            "BB": 0.4,
            "SO": 3.9,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 23.0,
            "Pitches": 81.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.6,
            "WHIP": 0.9667,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.4,
            "H_per_IP": 0.9,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.06667,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.65,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.16667
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 29,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 171.1,
            "ER": 56.0,
            "R": 56.0,
            "H": 159.0,
            "BB": 24.0,
            "SO": 101.0,
            "HR": 21.0,
            "BF": 682.0,
            "Pitches": 2380.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.931,
            "R": 1.931,
            "H": 5.4828,
            "BB": 0.8276,
            "SO": 3.4828,
            "HR": 0.7241,
            "BF": 23.5172,
            "Pitches": 82.069
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.9416,
            "WHIP": 1.0681,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.32685,
            "H_per_IP": 0.92802,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.14008,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.58949,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12257
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.122,
        "predicted_H": 4.98,
        "predicted_BB": 0.75,
        "predicted_SO": 3.992,
        "predicted_HR": 0.866,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.183,
        "predicted_WHIP": 0.9549
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4121,
      "form_weight": 0.5879,
      "form_reliability": 0.8529,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 29.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8529,
        "prior_weight": 0.1471
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 6.0,
          "final": 6.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.122,
          "final": 1.6596,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.98,
          "final": 4.9882,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.75,
          "final": 0.4409,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 3.992,
          "final": 4.4074,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.866,
          "final": 0.5091,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.183,
          "final": 3.183,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 0.9549,
          "final": 0.9549,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 60.0,
        "ER": 24,
        "H": 54,
        "BB": 4,
        "SO": 39,
        "HR": 10,
        "ERA": 3.6,
        "WHIP": 0.9666666666666667,
        "K9": 5.85,
        "HR9": 1.5,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 5,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-16T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8925744289271409,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 29.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8529,
          "prior_weight": 0.1471
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 1,
          "predicted_H": 5,
          "predicted_BB": 0,
          "predicted_SO": 5,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "607259",
      "player_name": "Nick Martinez",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "TB",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_R": 1.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 0,
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          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "TB",
        "games": 155,
        "wins": 95,
        "losses": 60,
        "win_pct": 0.6129,
        "runs_scored": 707.0,
        "runs_allowed": 624.0,
        "run_differential": 83.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.5355,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5613,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0258,
        "offense_index": 1.013,
        "defense_index": 1.1185,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 8,
          "losses": 2,
          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.1,
          "run_differential": 25.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.2664
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "NYY",
        "games": 155,
        "wins": 89,
        "losses": 66,
        "win_pct": 0.5742,
        "runs_scored": 713.0,
        "runs_allowed": 576.0,
        "run_differential": 137.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.8839,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.6,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7161,
        "offense_index": 1.0216,
        "defense_index": 1.2117,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3,
          "run_differential": 13.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.206
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0604,
        "offense_edge": 0.013,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0216,
        "defense_strength": 0.1185,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.2117,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
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      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0051,
        "run_prevention": 0.9886,
        "strikeout": 1.0001
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "607259",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "607259",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 661.0,
            "k_percent": 14.8,
            "bb_percent": 3.5,
            "woba": 0.29,
            "xwoba": 0.309,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.7,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.7,
            "hard_hit_percent": 32.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 75.5651,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.0912,
            "whiff_percent": 17.3,
            "swing_percent": 50.8
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.5,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.15,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.3113,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.595,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8957,
            "whiff_percent": 25.05,
            "swing_percent": 47.5
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.2531,
            "command_and_miss": -0.5614,
            "regression_edge": -0.5429,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.0643,
            "barrel_edge": 0.1111,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.7429,
            "whiff_edge": -1.1071,
            "bb_edge": 1.4125,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.1513
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "607259",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 81,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 81,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 87.1563062875865,
              "release_spin_rate": 2197.2474223566855,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 81,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 87.1563062875865,
                "release_spin_rate": 2197.2474223566855,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.1563,
              "release_spin_rate": 2197.2474,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1513,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.0805,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.0706,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.006,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9151,
          "walk_factor": 0.887,
          "homer_factor": 0.9595,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.019,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "607259",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.006,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.006,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.887,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9595,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9151,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 25,
      "Pitches": 100,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "WRONG_STARTER",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Wrong starter identity",
      "detail": "The projected MLB player ID differs from the official starter ID; performance errors are not attributable to the projected player."
    },
    {
      "code": "FALSE_CONFIRMATION",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Confirmed flag was false assurance",
      "detail": "The server marked this starter confirmed even though a different player started."
    },
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was -4."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was +3."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260922_TB@NYY.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260922

20260922_TB@NYY

home

Carlos Rodón

Max Fried

False

5.2

6.2

1/6

1/2

7/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.9475982532751095,
      "WHIP": 1.1266375545851528,
      "IP": 76.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 15,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.089,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.2,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0639,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9946,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0506,
      "walk_factor": 1.059,
      "homer_factor": 0.9961,
      "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 26.3,
      "bb_percent": 12.1,
      "woba": 0.266,
      "xwoba": 0.307,
      "barrel_percent": 6.8,
      "hard_hit_percent": 39.1,
      "whiff_percent": 29.5
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": null,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.2,
      "season_IP": 76.1,
      "season_ERA": 2.948,
      "season_WHIP": 1.127,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 15.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.75,
        "prior_weight": 0.25
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "607074",
      "report_date": "20260922",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 15,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 26.0,
            "ER": 7.0,
            "R": 9.0,
            "H": 14.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 27.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 104.0,
            "Pitches": 448.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 1.4,
            "R": 1.8,
            "H": 2.8,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 5.4,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 20.8,
            "Pitches": 89.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.4231,
            "WHIP": 0.9231,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.26923,
            "H_per_IP": 0.53846,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.38462,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.03846,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11538
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 51.1,
            "ER": 17.0,
            "R": 21.0,
            "H": 34.0,
            "BB": 22.0,
            "SO": 56.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 211.0,
            "Pitches": 892.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 1.7,
            "R": 2.1,
            "H": 3.4,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 5.6,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 21.1,
            "Pitches": 89.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.9805,
            "WHIP": 1.0909,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.33117,
            "H_per_IP": 0.66234,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.42857,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.09091,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11688
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 15,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 76.1,
            "ER": 25.0,
            "R": 30.0,
            "H": 48.0,
            "BB": 38.0,
            "SO": 83.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 315.0,
            "Pitches": 1342.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 1.6667,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 3.2,
            "BB": 2.5333,
            "SO": 5.5333,
            "HR": 0.4667,
            "BF": 21.0,
            "Pitches": 89.4667
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.9476,
            "WHIP": 1.1266,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.32751,
            "H_per_IP": 0.62882,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.49782,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.08734,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0917
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 1.871,
        "predicted_H": 3.669,
        "predicted_BB": 2.169,
        "predicted_SO": 5.461,
        "predicted_HR": 0.637,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.1896,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.106
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4556,
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      "form_reliability": 0.75,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_size": 15.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.75,
        "prior_weight": 0.25
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.871,
          "final": 1.4742,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
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          "form": 3.669,
          "final": 2.4529,
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        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.169,
          "final": 1.6364,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 5.461,
          "final": 6.1622,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.637,
          "final": 0.8024,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.1896,
          "final": 3.1896,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.106,
          "final": 1.106,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 51.1,
        "ER": 17,
        "H": 34,
        "BB": 22,
        "SO": 56,
        "HR": 6,
        "ERA": 2.980519480519481,
        "WHIP": 1.090909090909091,
        "K9": 9.818181818181818,
        "HR9": 1.051948051948052,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-16T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.825988931091643,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 1.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 7.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 15.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.75,
          "prior_weight": 0.25
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.2,
          "predicted_ER": 1,
          "predicted_H": 1,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 7,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "607074",
      "player_name": "Carlos Rod\u00f3n",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "NYY",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
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            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
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          {
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          },
          {
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          {
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          },
          {
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          },
          {
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          }
        ],
        "summary": {
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            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "NYY",
        "games": 155,
        "wins": 89,
        "losses": 66,
        "win_pct": 0.5742,
        "runs_scored": 713.0,
        "runs_allowed": 576.0,
        "run_differential": 137.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.8839,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.6,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7161,
        "offense_index": 1.0216,
        "defense_index": 1.2117,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3,
          "run_differential": 13.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.206
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "TB",
        "games": 155,
        "wins": 95,
        "losses": 60,
        "win_pct": 0.6129,
        "runs_scored": 707.0,
        "runs_allowed": 624.0,
        "run_differential": 83.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.5355,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5613,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0258,
        "offense_index": 1.013,
        "defense_index": 1.1185,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 8,
          "losses": 2,
          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.1,
          "run_differential": 25.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.2664
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0604,
        "offense_edge": 0.0216,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.013,
        "defense_strength": 0.2117,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1185,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0034,
        "run_prevention": 0.9839,
        "strikeout": 0.9971
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "607074",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "607074",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 287.0,
            "k_percent": 26.3,
            "bb_percent": 12.1,
            "woba": 0.266,
            "xwoba": 0.307,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 38.0,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.8,
            "hard_hit_percent": 39.1,
            "avg_best_speed": 80.4358,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.1768,
            "whiff_percent": 29.5,
            "swing_percent": 47.8
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.5,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.15,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.3113,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.595,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8957,
            "whiff_percent": 25.05,
            "swing_percent": 47.5
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.1504,
            "command_and_miss": 0.3579,
            "regression_edge": -1.1714,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.1214,
            "barrel_edge": 0.0889,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.1714,
            "whiff_edge": 0.6357,
            "bb_edge": -0.7375,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.047
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "607074",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 82,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 82,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.69711507632361,
              "release_spin_rate": 2325.2804400378964,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 82,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.69711507632361,
                "release_spin_rate": 2325.2804400378964,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.6971,
              "release_spin_rate": 2325.2804,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.047,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.3359,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0639,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9946,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0506,
          "walk_factor": 1.059,
          "homer_factor": 0.9961,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.041,
          "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "607074",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9946,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9946,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.059,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9961,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0506,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 1,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 19,
      "Pitches": 90,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "WRONG_STARTER",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Wrong starter identity",
      "detail": "The projected MLB player ID differs from the official starter ID; performance errors are not attributable to the projected player."
    },
    {
      "code": "FALSE_CONFIRMATION",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Confirmed flag was false assurance",
      "detail": "The server marked this starter confirmed even though a different player started."
    },
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +3."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 5",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +5."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260922_TB@NYY.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260922

20260922_WAS@DET

away

Riley Cornelio

True

4.0

2.2

-4

-2

5/1

2/3

7/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.21875,
      "WHIP": 1.53125,
      "IP": 32.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 16,
      "role_avg_IP": 2.5,
      "recent_avg_IP": 2.5,
      "last_start_IP": 2.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0983,
      "sample_weight": 0.528,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9916,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.037,
      "walk_factor": 1.0892,
      "homer_factor": 1.0133,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 23.9,
      "bb_percent": 17.6,
      "woba": 0.302,
      "xwoba": 0.296,
      "barrel_percent": 7.2,
      "hard_hit_percent": 44.6,
      "whiff_percent": 35.3
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 725,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 6.512,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.5657,
        "prior_weight": 0.4343
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "683000",
      "report_date": "20260922",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 16,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 12.0,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 5.0,
            "H": 7.0,
            "BB": 5.0,
            "SO": 14.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 46.0,
            "Pitches": 184.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 2.1,
            "ER": 0.6,
            "R": 1.0,
            "H": 1.4,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 2.8,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 9.2,
            "Pitches": 36.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.25,
            "WHIP": 1.0,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.25,
            "H_per_IP": 0.58333,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.41667,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.16667,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08333
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 19.1,
            "ER": 4.0,
            "R": 10.0,
            "H": 10.0,
            "BB": 13.0,
            "SO": 22.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 79.0,
            "Pitches": 343.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 2.0,
            "ER": 0.4,
            "R": 1.0,
            "H": 1.0,
            "BB": 1.3,
            "SO": 2.2,
            "HR": 0.1,
            "BF": 7.9,
            "Pitches": 34.3
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.8621,
            "WHIP": 1.1897,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.2069,
            "H_per_IP": 0.51724,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.67241,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.13793,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.05172
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 16,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 32.0,
            "ER": 15.0,
            "R": 22.0,
            "H": 24.0,
            "BB": 25.0,
            "SO": 34.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 142.0,
            "Pitches": 594.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 2.0,
            "ER": 0.9375,
            "R": 1.375,
            "H": 1.5,
            "BB": 1.5625,
            "SO": 2.125,
            "HR": 0.125,
            "BF": 8.875,
            "Pitches": 37.125
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.2188,
            "WHIP": 1.5312,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.46875,
            "H_per_IP": 0.75,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.78125,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.0625,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0625
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 3.1,
        "predicted_ER": 1.229,
        "predicted_H": 2.47,
        "predicted_BB": 1.592,
        "predicted_SO": 3.404,
        "predicted_HR": 0.335,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.4118,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2524
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.5335,
      "form_weight": 0.4665,
      "form_reliability": 0.5657,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 6.512,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.5657,
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      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
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          },
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        {
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          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "changed_metrics": [
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
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      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
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        "win_pct": 0.465,
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        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0318,
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      "opponent": {
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      "edges": {
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        "offense_edge": 0.1362,
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      "player_factors": {
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      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "683000",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "683000",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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          "league_medians": {
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            "whiff_percent": 25.05,
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          "components": {
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            "pitch_design_score": 0.0071
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "683000",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 37,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 37,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.98441720106709,
              "release_spin_rate": 2324.6194638196635,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
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              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
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            "pitch_mix": [
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                "pitches": 37,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.98441720106709,
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                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
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            ],
            "summary": {
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
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          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_id": "683000",
            "espn_rank": null
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
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          "predicted_H": {
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          "predicted_BB": {
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          "predicted_HR": {
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    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
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      "predicted_R": 2,
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      "predicted_SO": 7,
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      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 19,
      "Pitches": 85,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
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  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was -4."
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  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260922_WAS@DET.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260922

20260922_WAS@DET

home

Drew Anderson

True

5.0

6.0

3/5

3/0

9/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
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      "WHIP": 1.2941176470588236,
      "IP": 102.0,
      "games_started": null,
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      "role_avg_IP": 4.567,
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    },
    "savant": {
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      "k_percent": 25.1,
      "bb_percent": 10.1,
      "woba": 0.317,
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      "barrel_percent": 8.0,
      "hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
      "whiff_percent": 27.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 496,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
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        "last_10": 0.35,
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      "effective_weights": {
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      "shrinkage": {
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      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "623454",
      "report_date": "20260922",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 48,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
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            "IP": 25.2,
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            "SO": 22.0,
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          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
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          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.4545,
            "WHIP": 1.2857,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.27273,
            "H_per_IP": 0.74026,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.54545,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.85714,
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
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            "IP": 41.0,
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            "BF": 170.0,
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          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.0,
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            "H": 3.2,
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          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.8537,
            "WHIP": 1.2683,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.31707,
            "H_per_IP": 0.78049,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.4878,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.85366,
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        },
        "season": {
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            "IP": 102.0,
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          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 2.0,
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          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.6176,
            "WHIP": 1.2941,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.40196,
            "H_per_IP": 0.87255,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.42157,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.06863,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13725
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.1,
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        "predicted_BB": 2.017,
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        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2959
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
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      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 20.757,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8059,
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
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          "form": 1.491,
          "final": 2.1429,
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 3.47,
          "final": 3.267,
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        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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          "form": 2.017,
          "final": 2.4417,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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          "form": 3.836,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.1689,
          "final": 3.1689,
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2959,
          "final": 1.2959,
          "source": "form_only"
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
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        "2B": 0,
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        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 41.0,
        "ER": 13,
        "H": 32,
        "BB": 20,
        "SO": 35,
        "HR": 5,
        "ERA": 2.8536585365853657,
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        "K9": 7.682926829268292,
        "HR9": 1.0975609756097562,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 0,
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      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-15T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8161516646994984,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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          "prior_size": 5.0,
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "623454",
      "player_name": "Drew Anderson",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "DET",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_H": 3.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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          "weights": {},
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        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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              "percent_delta": 0.2857,
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          ],
          "summary": {
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            "biggest_deboost": null
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
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          {
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          },
          {
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          },
          {
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        ],
        "summary": {
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          },
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "DET",
        "games": 157,
        "wins": 74,
        "losses": 83,
        "win_pct": 0.4713,
        "runs_scored": 706.0,
        "runs_allowed": 631.0,
        "run_differential": 75.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.4777,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4968,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0191,
        "offense_index": 1.0027,
        "defense_index": 1.1159,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3,
          "run_differential": 16.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0692
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "WAS",
        "games": 157,
        "wins": 73,
        "losses": 84,
        "win_pct": 0.465,
        "runs_scored": 800.0,
        "runs_allowed": 795.0,
        "run_differential": 5.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0318,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.0955,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.0637,
        "offense_index": 1.1362,
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        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.8,
          "run_differential": -2.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0091
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0601,
        "offense_edge": 0.0027,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.1362,
        "defense_strength": 0.1159,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.1143,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0004,
        "run_prevention": 1.0072,
        "strikeout": 0.9909
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "623454",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "623454",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 392.0,
            "k_percent": 25.1,
            "bb_percent": 10.1,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.301,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 28.6,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.0,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.6961,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9191,
            "whiff_percent": 27.1,
            "swing_percent": 49.1
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.5,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.15,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.3113,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.595,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8957,
            "whiff_percent": 25.05,
            "swing_percent": 47.5
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.0898,
            "command_and_miss": 0.2607,
            "regression_edge": 0.4571,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.2929,
            "barrel_edge": -0.1778,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.0286,
            "whiff_edge": 0.2929,
            "bb_edge": -0.2375,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0199
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "623454",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 82,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 82,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.212223774853,
              "release_spin_rate": 2142.1592491274655,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 82,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.212223774853,
                "release_spin_rate": 2142.1592491274655,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.2122,
              "release_spin_rate": 2142.1592,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0199,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.1419,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.1654,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9859,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.03,
          "walk_factor": 1.019,
          "homer_factor": 1.0043,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.016,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "623454",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9859,
            "adjusted": 1
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          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9859,
            "adjusted": 4
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          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.019,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0043,
            "adjusted": 1
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.03,
            "adjusted": 4
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 9,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 96,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260922_WAS@DET.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}