Continuous postgame learning

daily_20260915 · dates 20260915 · generated 2026-09-16T09:00:18.919105+00:00

6-9

Winner picks · 40.0%

Comparable starters · 0 identity mismatches

14/30

Starter ER within ±1

21/30

Starter workload within ±1 inning

Slate coverage

Every calendar day in the requested window is listed. Pending means the prediction exists but the official final result has not settled; Missing review artifact identifies a data gap instead of hiding the day.

Date	Games	Settled	Pending	Hits	Misses	Calibration traces	Review status	Pipeline versions
20260915	15	15	0	6	9	15	Available	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Prioritized optimization roadmap

Runtime evidence for the six recommendations. “Observed games” counts artifacts generated with the relevant trace; older artifacts remain honestly blank.

Priority	Change	Status	Observed games	Evidence
P1	Empirical Confidence Blend	Implemented And Applied	15	applied games: 15formula: w_emp=min(0.5,sample_size/200); final=(1-w_emp)raw+w_empempirical_hit_rate
P1	H2H Base Feature	Implemented And Monitored	15	available games: 15
P2	Score Distribution Widening	Implemented Above 1.4X	15	variance multipliers: [1.95]
P2	Simulation Flip Control	Diagnostic Only Without Independent Support	15	simulation flip candidates: 0published flips: 0
P3	Recent Form Quality Blend	Implemented Last 10	15	configured window: 10last 10 games: 15observed windows: [10]
P3	Continuous Calibration Audit	Implemented	15	settled games: 15metric: bucket_calibration_error

Confidence calibration by bucket

bucket_calibration_error = average published confidence − observed hit rate. Positive means overconfident; negative means underconfident. Weighted absolute error: 0.2795.

Bucket	Games	Average confidence	Observed hit rate	Calibration error	Direction
0.50-0.55	8	53.3%	12.5%	40.8%	overconfident
0.55-0.60	6	56.8%	66.7%	-9.9%	underconfident
0.65-0.70	1	66.7%	100.0%	-33.3%	underconfident

Where the score pipeline gained or lost quality

Direct comparison against official final runs. Positive deltas mean the stage was worse than historical_ml; this is score error, not a synthetic one-game ERA.

Stage	Games	Team-run MAE	Total-run MAE	Margin MAE	Winner accuracy	Δ team MAE vs base	Δ margin MAE vs base
historical_ml	15	2.3789	2.9575	3.6102	46.7%	0.0	0.0
variance_applied	15	2.4	2.9333	3.6	46.7%	0.0211	-0.0102
enhanced_prediction	15	2.6667	3.4667	3.7333	46.7%	0.2878	0.1231
embedded_savant_run_environment	15	2.7	3.5333	3.6667	46.7%	0.3211	0.0565
fundamental_edge_target_review	15	2.7667	3.6667	3.8	40.0%	0.3878	0.1898
capped_target	15	2.7667	3.6667	3.8	40.0%	0.3878	0.1898
simulation_result	15	2.7667	3.6667	3.8	40.0%	0.3878	0.1898
published_final	15	2.7667	3.6667	3.8	40.0%	0.3878	0.1898

Largest measured regression

{
  "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
  "games": 15,
  "team_run_mae": 2.7667,
  "total_run_mae": 3.6667,
  "margin_mae": 3.8,
  "winner_hits": 6,
  "winner_accuracy": 0.4,
  "team_run_mae_delta_vs_historical_ml": 0.3878,
  "margin_mae_delta_vs_historical_ml": 0.1898
}

Automatic questions

Which recorded score stage reinforced losing picks?

partial_attribution sample=9

Largest positive recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. Positive, negative, net, absolute, and unchanged movements are shown separately so opposite games cannot cancel into a misleading zero. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution.

Stage	Positive Toward Pick Run Delta	Negative Away From Pick Run Delta	Net Toward Pick Run Delta	Absolute Run Movement	Games Recorded	Games Supporting Pick	Games Opposing Pick	Games Unchanged	Meaning
enhanced_prediction	4.0	-3.0	1.0	7.0	9	2	2	5	reinforced final pick
embedded_savant_run_environment	2.0	0.0	2.0	2.0	9	2	0	7	reinforced final pick
fundamental_edge_target_review	2.0	0.0	2.0	2.0	9	1	0	8	reinforced final pick
variance_applied	1.5919	-2.4774	-0.8855	4.0693	9	4	5	0	reinforced final pick
capped_target	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	9	0	0	9	recorded but did not change score margin
simulation_result	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	9	0	0	9	recorded but did not change score margin

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "partial_attribution",
  "sample_size": 9,
  "top_stage": "enhanced_prediction",
  "ranking": [
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 4.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -3.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 7.0,
      "games_recorded": 9,
      "games_supporting_pick": 2,
      "games_opposing_pick": 2,
      "games_unchanged": 5,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 2.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 2.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 2.0,
      "games_recorded": 9,
      "games_supporting_pick": 2,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 7,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 2.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 2.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 2.0,
      "games_recorded": 9,
      "games_supporting_pick": 1,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 8,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.5919,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -2.4774,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": -0.8855,
      "absolute_run_movement": 4.0693,
      "games_recorded": 9,
      "games_supporting_pick": 4,
      "games_opposing_pick": 5,
      "games_unchanged": 0,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 9,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 9,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 9,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 9,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    }
  ],
  "interpretation": "Largest positive recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. Positive, negative, net, absolute, and unchanged movements are shown separately so opposite games cannot cancel into a misleading zero. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution."
}

Which recorded score stage reinforced winning picks?

partial_attribution sample=6

Stage	Positive Toward Pick Run Delta	Negative Away From Pick Run Delta	Net Toward Pick Run Delta	Absolute Run Movement	Games Recorded	Games Supporting Pick	Games Opposing Pick	Games Unchanged	Meaning
enhanced_prediction	3.0	0.0	3.0	3.0	6	2	0	4	reinforced final pick
embedded_savant_run_environment	3.0	0.0	3.0	3.0	6	3	0	3	reinforced final pick
variance_applied	0.7746	-1.188	-0.4134	1.9626	6	3	3	0	reinforced final pick
fundamental_edge_target_review	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	6	0	0	6	recorded but did not change score margin
capped_target	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	6	0	0	6	recorded but did not change score margin
simulation_result	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	6	0	0	6	recorded but did not change score margin

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "partial_attribution",
  "sample_size": 6,
  "top_stage": "enhanced_prediction",
  "ranking": [
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 3.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 3.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 3.0,
      "games_recorded": 6,
      "games_supporting_pick": 2,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 4,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 3.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 3.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 3.0,
      "games_recorded": 6,
      "games_supporting_pick": 3,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 3,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.7746,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -1.188,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": -0.4134,
      "absolute_run_movement": 1.9626,
      "games_recorded": 6,
      "games_supporting_pick": 3,
      "games_opposing_pick": 3,
      "games_unchanged": 0,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 6,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 6,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 6,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 6,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 6,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 6,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    }
  ],
  "interpretation": "Largest positive recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. Positive, negative, net, absolute, and unchanged movements are shown separately so opposite games cannot cancel into a misleading zero. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution."
}

Are Overs performing worse than Unders?

not_measurable sample=0

The current artifacts contain predicted totals but no total line, Over/Under selection, price, or settled total bet.

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "The current artifacts contain predicted totals but no total line, Over/Under selection, price, or settled total bet.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "total_line",
    "total_selection",
    "odds",
    "settled_result"
  ]
}

Are hitter props outperforming pitcher props?

not_measurable sample=0

Player stat projections are not stored as priced, selected, and settled prop predictions.

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "Player stat projections are not stored as priced, selected, and settled prop predictions.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "prop_family",
    "prop_line",
    "selection",
    "odds",
    "settled_result"
  ]
}

Which sportsbooks produce better opportunities?

not_measurable sample=0

No settled prediction was linked to a sportsbook snapshot.

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "No settled prediction was linked to a sportsbook snapshot.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "sportsbook",
    "selection_odds",
    "settled_profit"
  ],
  "books": []
}

Which confidence ranges underperform?

insufficient_sample sample=15

Range	Sample Size	Hits	Misses	Accuracy
[0.000, 0.525)	1	0	1	0.0
[0.525, 0.550)	7	1	6	0.1429
[0.550, 0.600)	6	4	2	0.6667
[0.600, 1.010)	1	1	0	1.0

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 15,
  "minimum_recommended_sample": 20,
  "worst_observed_range": {
    "range": "[0.000, 0.525)",
    "sample_size": 1,
    "hits": 0,
    "misses": 1,
    "accuracy": 0.0
  },
  "ranges": [
    {
      "range": "[0.000, 0.525)",
      "sample_size": 1,
      "hits": 0,
      "misses": 1,
      "accuracy": 0.0
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.525, 0.550)",
      "sample_size": 7,
      "hits": 1,
      "misses": 6,
      "accuracy": 0.1429
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.550, 0.600)",
      "sample_size": 6,
      "hits": 4,
      "misses": 2,
      "accuracy": 0.6667
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.600, 1.010)",
      "sample_size": 1,
      "hits": 1,
      "misses": 0,
      "accuracy": 1.0
    }
  ]
}

Which monitored features are drifting?

insufficient_sample sample=15

Three slates are descriptive only and cannot establish statistical feature drift.

Date	Sample Size	Mean Confidence	Mean Predicted Total	Accuracy
20260915	15	0.5559	10.0667	0.4

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 15,
  "minimum_baseline_sample": 30,
  "minimum_recent_sample": 20,
  "reason": "Three slates are descriptive only and cannot establish statistical feature drift.",
  "daily_monitors": [
    {
      "date": "20260915",
      "sample_size": 15,
      "mean_confidence": 0.5559,
      "mean_predicted_total": 10.0667,
      "accuracy": 0.4
    }
  ],
  "features_monitored": [
    "confidence",
    "predicted_total",
    "winner_accuracy"
  ]
}

Which model version introduced errors?

insufficient_sample sample=15

Version error claims require at least 30 settled predictions per version.

Pipeline Version	Model Schema Version	Policy Version	Sample Size	Hits	Misses	Accuracy
enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	historical_game_temporal_v11	model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3	15	6	9	0.4

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 15,
  "minimum_sample_per_version": 30,
  "versions": [
    {
      "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "sample_size": 15,
      "hits": 6,
      "misses": 9,
      "accuracy": 0.4
    }
  ],
  "reason": "Version error claims require at least 30 settled predictions per version."
}

Game processing context

How each game moved from the historical model through confidence calibration, H2H and recent-form signals, score distribution and simulation policy. Postgame learning is added only after the official result settles.

20260915_ATL@CHC

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickCHC

Published scoreATL 4 - 5 CHC

Final confidence53.5%

Calibrationraw 59.8% → blended 57.7%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.6% · weight 50.0% · n=653

H2H base featurehome net 0.0 · absolute 0.0 · n=4

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.2349

Simulation variance1.95

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.448202331822958-4.871823579584067	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "CHC",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.070946,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.535473,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.535473,
    "away_win_probability": 0.464527
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.070946,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "CHC wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "ATL 4 - 5 CHC",
    "confidence": 0.53547305,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.598382,
    "sample_size": 653,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5559,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.577141,
    "published_confidence": 0.535473,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 4,
    "sample_weight": 0.05,
    "home_net_margin": 0.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 0.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.1589,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.376,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.2349
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.01927560338926407
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.01898326671104983
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.0185796822091256
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.018297899975407445
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.017990128097722484
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.03904364997285951,
      "1": 0.061843465273474806,
      "2": 0.0881239176144628,
      "3": 0.11296667569408739,
      "4": 0.13027571802548155,
      "5": 0.1351553295501152,
      "6": 0.1261419236842526,
      "7": 0.10591129965428675,
      "8": 0.07999847692182346,
      "9": 0.05435978288695238,
      "10": 0.033229995465588184,
      "11": 0.01827424420264465,
      "12": 0.0090407641545009,
      "13": 0.004023717014357704,
      "14": 0.001611039885112081
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04688689657227606,
      "1": 0.07383852871169123,
      "2": 0.10340640416841602,
      "3": 0.12877889477181476,
      "4": 0.14261815241341805,
      "5": 0.1404551842257237,
      "6": 0.12300806782388575,
      "7": 0.09579928663365228,
      "8": 0.0663473847589885,
      "9": 0.04086186623200381,
      "10": 0.022379245575044546,
      "11": 0.010899474044562226,
      "12": 0.004720614068523342
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.95,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "ATL 4 - 5 CHC",
      "winner": "CHC"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "ATL 4 - 5 CHC",
      "winner": "CHC"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.1431,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.376,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "CHC",
      "model_winner": "CHC",
      "simulation_winner": "CHC",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
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        "draw_count": 2,
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        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
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      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
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      "simulation_score": {
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        "home_runs": 5
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        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": 0.1589,
          "recent_quality_edge": 0.376,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": 0.2349
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 0.0,
        "reason": "season quality edge below action threshold"
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
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            "away_runs": 4,
            "probability": 0.020145121756612764
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          {
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        "home_distribution": {
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        "away_distribution": {
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          "12": 0.004009099540167058
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        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 1.85,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.448202331822958,
      "home_runs": 4.871823579584067,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260915_BAL@NYM

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickNYM

Published scoreBAL 4 - 5 NYM

Final confidence53.0%

Calibrationraw 64.9% → blended 60.2%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.4% · weight 50.0% · n=363

H2H base featurehome net -1.0 · absolute 1.0 · n=1

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.2056

Simulation variance1.95

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.611290775796622-4.417244272778009	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYM",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.06,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.53,
    "away_win_probability": 0.47
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.06,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYM wins 5-4 (Extra Innings - 10)",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "BAL 4 - 5 NYM",
    "confidence": 0.53,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.649328,
    "sample_size": 363,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5537,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.601514,
    "published_confidence": 0.53,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 1,
    "sample_weight": 0.0167,
    "home_net_margin": -1.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 1.0,
    "home_average_margin": -1.0,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0083,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0083,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.0433,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.668,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.2056
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.021200524644281314
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.020614466893417345
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.020455001474141254
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.019889552629879372
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.01976315891133572
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.0391871202656259,
      "1": 0.06206400527525854,
      "2": 0.08840949493770342,
      "3": 0.1132715076198981,
      "4": 0.13052842967424866,
      "5": 0.13528579763665968,
      "6": 0.12611361096015686,
      "7": 0.10573879968218738,
      "8": 0.07973875533241602,
      "9": 0.05408379893282695,
      "10": 0.03299343915760579,
      "11": 0.018103003979538932,
      "12": 0.008933802906135086,
      "13": 0.003965379418313688,
      "14": 0.0015830542214251158
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06101963784510661,
      "1": 0.09508401534425846,
      "2": 0.1290003648794035,
      "3": 0.15237716932254866,
      "4": 0.15670916692393738,
      "5": 0.14031834050183356,
      "6": 0.10939060273322375,
      "7": 0.07424908880310788,
      "8": 0.04387809649236442,
      "9": 0.022576154421010585,
      "10": 0.010113411832311908,
      "11": 0.003944490876795958,
      "12": 0.0013394600240974426
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.95,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "BAL 4 - 5 NYM",
      "winner": "NYM"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "BAL 4 - 5 NYM",
      "winner": "NYM"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.093,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.318,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "NYM",
      "model_winner": "NYM",
      "simulation_winner": "NYM",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 6,
        "published_winner": "NYM",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.3333,
        "draw_majority_team": "BAL",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.2056,
      "winner": "NYM",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "NYM",
    "display_confidence": 0.53,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.529,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.2056,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.668,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.093,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.3333,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.1667,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.6667,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 3,
        "median": 5,
        "max": 11,
        "range": 8
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
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        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
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        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
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        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
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        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
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        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
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        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
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        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
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        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
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        "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
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        "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
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  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
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        "risk_tier": "low",
        "evaluation_mode": "artifact_replay"
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    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
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    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-15T22:39:58.419411+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-15T23:10:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.58891,
      "confidence": 0.58891,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "total_runs": 9
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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          "parameters": {
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            "recent.window_games": 10,
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            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
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    },
    "candidate_prediction": {
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        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
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        "away": {
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      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
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      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
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      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260915_BOS@TEX

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickBOS

Published scoreBOS 7 - 6 TEX

Final confidence51.5%

Calibrationraw 51.0% → blended 53.3%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.6% · weight 50.0% · n=593

H2H base featurehome net -10.0 · absolute 10.0 · n=3

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.701

Simulation variance1.95

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.7506231931225544-4.998714262084633	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-6	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, starter_quality_favours_the_other_side, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-6	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	7-6	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	7-6	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	7-6	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "BOS",
    "away_runs": 7,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "confidence": -0.030324,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.515162,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.484838,
    "away_win_probability": 0.515162
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.030324,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "BOS wins 7-6",
    "away_runs": 7,
    "home_runs": 6
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 7,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "predicted_score_text": "BOS 7 - 6 TEX",
    "confidence": 0.5151616625,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5101,
    "sample_size": 593,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5565,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.5333,
    "published_confidence": 0.515162,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 3,
    "sample_weight": 0.0409,
    "home_net_margin": -10.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 10.0,
    "home_average_margin": -3.333,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0682,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0682,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -9.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.96,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.22,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.701
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.018558924679339187
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.01812168753961452
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.01793875375013351
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.017516127465720312
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.017262401827510262
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.03945428230022149,
      "1": 0.06247455946180839,
      "2": 0.08894061510452136,
      "3": 0.11383738910021501,
      "4": 0.13099586768837382,
      "5": 0.13552460084999593,
      "6": 0.12605687871506943,
      "7": 0.10541510203970854,
      "8": 0.07925505818405468,
      "9": 0.053572142621984314,
      "10": 0.03255659036403123,
      "11": 0.017787982171687606,
      "12": 0.008737804577523853,
      "13": 0.003858920583492617,
      "14": 0.0015322062373118452
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04100630133920461,
      "1": 0.06485897140096966,
      "2": 0.09202338265560378,
      "3": 0.11712106369610539,
      "4": 0.13371511464307748,
      "5": 0.13694137125613784,
      "6": 0.1258048898946269,
      "7": 0.10367380780917633,
      "8": 0.07663889885322503,
      "9": 0.05082040722564615,
      "10": 0.03022982991158812,
      "11": 0.01613028143322845,
      "12": 0.0077207033195697975,
      "13": 0.0033149765618407153
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.95,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "BOS 7 - 6 TEX",
      "winner": "BOS"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "BOS 7 - 6 TEX",
      "winner": "BOS"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0249,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.3367,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
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      "home_runs": 6,
      "winner": "BOS",
      "model_winner": "BOS",
      "simulation_winner": "BOS",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 6,
        "published_winner": "BOS",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5,
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
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      "model_score": {
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      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 7,
        "home_runs": 6
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    },
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      "review_required": false,
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      "final_margin": 1,
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      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 7,
        "home_runs": 6,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
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      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
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  },
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    "internal_signal_score": 0.5583,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
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    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
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      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.3333,
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      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 1,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 9,
        "range": 8
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    },
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          "losses": 76,
          "win_pct": 0.49333333333333335,
          "runs_scored": 624,
          "runs_allowed": 668,
          "run_differential": -44,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.29333333333333333,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "BOS",
          "games": 150,
          "wins": 82,
          "losses": 68,
          "win_pct": 0.5466666666666666,
          "runs_scored": 663,
          "runs_allowed": 575,
          "run_differential": 88,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.5866666666666667,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": -0.88,
        "win_pct_edge": -0.0533,
        "quality_edge": -0.701,
        "season_quality_edge": -0.96,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": -0.96,
          "recent_quality_edge": -0.22,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": -0.701
        },
        "margin_adjustment": -0.2944,
        "reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
          "adjustment": -0.2944,
          "cap": 1.4,
          "scale": 0.42,
          "quality_edge": -0.701,
          "season_quality_edge": -0.96,
          "recent_alignment": "aligned",
          "large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": false,
          "method": "standard_bounded_season_recent_adjustment"
        },
        "adjusted_score": {
          "away_runs": 4.294,
          "home_runs": 5.245,
          "home_win_probability": 0.5808
        }
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
            "home_runs": 5,
            "away_runs": 5,
            "probability": 0.019406322930318118
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 5,
            "away_runs": 4,
            "probability": 0.01892471717093152
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 5,
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          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 4,
            "probability": 0.018258747788218847
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 6,
            "away_runs": 5,
            "probability": 0.01798007838332408
          }
        ],
        "home_distribution": {
          "0": 0.03777319252420762,
          "1": 0.061317215615075624,
          "2": 0.0889756311875505,
          "3": 0.11541164952405945,
          "4": 0.1338191101365146,
          "5": 0.13870002701024878,
          "6": 0.1285064340301875,
          "7": 0.10642976856434058,
          "8": 0.07879366139999716,
          "9": 0.05214460290999353,
          "10": 0.030847314835250782,
          "11": 0.016312303235308412,
          "12": 0.007710865447618939,
          "13": 0.0032582235796464595
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        "away_distribution": {
          "0": 0.03925322896882861,
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          "5": 0.13991578335369864,
          "6": 0.12794943151538077,
          "7": 0.10434407874388468,
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          "11": 0.014681267881634407,
          "12": 0.006752770526955141,
          "13": 0.0027698625374987917
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 1.85,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.7506231931225544,
      "home_runs": 4.998714262084633,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, starter_quality_favours_the_other_side, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260915_CHW@CLE

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickCHW

Published scoreCHW 5 - 4 CLE

Final confidence54.5%

Calibrationraw 49.9% → blended 53.1%

Empirical signalhit rate 56.2% · weight 50.0% · n=361

H2H base featurehome net -4.0 · absolute 4.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.1798

Simulation variance1.95

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.949638048799174-3.7262633300487	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "CHW",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": -0.089146,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.544573,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.455427,
    "away_win_probability": 0.544573
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.089146,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "CHW wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "CHW 5 - 4 CLE",
    "confidence": 0.5445731925,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.499097,
    "sample_size": 361,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5623,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.530699,
    "published_confidence": 0.544573,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -4.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 4.0,
    "home_average_margin": -0.8,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0231,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0231,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 6.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.3412,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.12,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.1798
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.019909624434648086
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.019439458641507312
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.0193204227697237
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.01886417097425869
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.018291787318699303
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.049070414421178904,
      "1": 0.07715056585238023,
      "2": 0.10751450197225619,
      "3": 0.13280166538410404,
      "4": 0.1453946870410351,
      "5": 0.14109190413536388,
      "6": 0.12135682178518602,
      "7": 0.09251983204124867,
      "8": 0.06251928738229688,
      "9": 0.03744568197250908,
      "10": 0.019879159203929787,
      "11": 0.00935411750300501,
      "12": 0.003901361305506212
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.040997914226149255,
      "1": 0.06484611592815465,
      "2": 0.09200688939157144,
      "3": 0.11710377673211889,
      "4": 0.1337012998007339,
      "5": 0.1369350203905934,
      "6": 0.12580781107590794,
      "7": 0.10368474296430488,
      "8": 0.0766542570147913,
      "9": 0.05083605905652887,
      "10": 0.030242775561238774,
      "11": 0.016139333330167534,
      "12": 0.007726160219791752,
      "13": 0.0033178443079472757
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.95,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "CHW 5 - 4 CLE",
      "winner": "CHW"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "CHW 5 - 4 CLE",
      "winner": "CHW"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0082,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.09,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "CHW",
      "model_winner": "CHW",
      "simulation_winner": "CHW",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "CHW",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5,
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.1798,
      "winner": "CHW",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "CHW",
    "display_confidence": 0.5446,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5322,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5446,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.1798,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.12,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0082,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.5,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.5,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 8,
        "median": 11,
        "max": 11,
        "range": 3
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-57e651c7f36832cf",
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      "parent_config_id": "candidate-ed18fee8af33cf7e",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-15T09:04:57.841906+00:00",
      "parameters": {
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        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
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        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
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        "recent.window_games": 10,
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        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
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        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
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        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
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        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
        "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
        "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
        "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
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        "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
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        "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
        "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
        "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
        "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
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    }
  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
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      "config_hash": "sha256:f542511539f291f9f8af06cbdac9abb41ef927ee79bd9dfa8da0185765dd9140",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-11bc4bc2dfc7264a-registry-4c40ee6a3671",
      "parent_config_hash": "sha256:4c40ee6a3671b3a7c2775a53d9c67b935e269d408c98251960ad257a5d502c6c"
    },
    "changes": [
      {
        "parameter": "score.variance_multiplier",
        "old_value": 1.85,
        "new_value": 1.95,
        "risk_tier": "low",
        "evaluation_mode": "artifact_replay"
      }
    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
      "artifact_replay"
    ],
    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-15T22:36:50.855162+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-15T22:40:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "away",
      "home_win_probability": 0.438307,
      "confidence": 0.561693,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "total_runs": 9
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
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        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
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      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
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    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
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    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
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      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
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  ]
}

20260915_DET@TOR

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickDET

Published scoreDET 5 - 4 TOR

Final confidence56.2%

Calibrationraw 58.6% → blended 57.5%

Empirical signalhit rate 56.3% · weight 50.0% · n=327

H2H base featurehome net 2.0 · absolute 2.0 · n=4

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.5724

Simulation variance1.95

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	5.330223519150277-3.9153842635651603	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "DET",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": -0.12443,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.562215,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.437785,
    "away_win_probability": 0.562215
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.12443,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "DET wins 5-4 (Extra Innings - 10)",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "DET 5 - 4 TOR",
    "confidence": 0.5622151975,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5864,
    "sample_size": 327,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5627,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.57455,
    "published_confidence": 0.562215,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 4,
    "sample_weight": 0.05,
    "home_net_margin": 2.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 2.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.5,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0125,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0125,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.6502,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.428,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.5724
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  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.020365147637975832
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.01966960296824587
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      {
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        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.019174955044510472
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      {
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    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.053550319197515656,
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      "11": 0.006803493445609622,
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          "policy": "probability_follows_published_score_v1",
          "published_score": {
            "away_runs": 5,
            "home_runs": 4
          },
          "margin": -1,
          "probability_before": 0.404753,
          "margin_implied_home_probability": 0.420264,
          "shrinkage_weight": 0.966087,
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        "starter_experience": {
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          "min_starter_games": 47,
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      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
        "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
        "available": true,
        "sample_size": 4,
        "sample_weight": 0.05,
        "home_net_margin": 2.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 2.0,
        "home_average_margin": 0.5,
        "home_run_delta": 0.0125,
        "away_run_delta": -0.0125,
        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": -1.0
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          {
            "home_margin": 3.0
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          {
            "home_margin": 1.0
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          {
            "home_margin": -1.0
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      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
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        "home": {
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          "games": 151,
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          "losses": 76,
          "win_pct": 0.4966887417218543,
          "runs_scored": 613,
          "runs_allowed": 645,
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          "run_differential_per_game": -0.2119205298013245,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "DET",
          "games": 150,
          "wins": 71,
          "losses": 79,
          "win_pct": 0.47333333333333333,
          "runs_scored": 672,
          "runs_allowed": 601,
          "run_differential": 71,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.47333333333333333,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": -0.6853,
        "win_pct_edge": 0.0234,
        "quality_edge": -0.5724,
        "season_quality_edge": -0.6502,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
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          "recent_quality_edge": -0.428,
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          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": -0.5724
        },
        "margin_adjustment": -0.2404,
        "reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
          "adjustment": -0.2404,
          "cap": 1.4,
          "scale": 0.42,
          "quality_edge": -0.5724,
          "season_quality_edge": -0.6502,
          "recent_alignment": "aligned",
          "large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": false,
          "method": "standard_bounded_season_recent_adjustment"
        },
        "adjusted_score": {
          "away_runs": 6.133,
          "home_runs": 2.721,
          "home_win_probability": 0.21
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      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
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        "home_distribution": {
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        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
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    },
    "validity": {
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      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
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  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 5.330223519150277,
      "home_runs": 3.9153842635651603,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260915_KC@HOU

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickHOU

Published scoreKC 3 - 4 HOU

Final confidence53.0%

Calibrationraw 51.0% → blended 53.6%

Empirical signalhit rate 56.2% · weight 50.0% · n=361

H2H base featurehome net -1.0 · absolute 1.0 · n=3

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.2124

Simulation variance1.95

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.922735047995798-5.048511480920636	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	3-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	3-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	3-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	3-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	3-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "HOU",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": 0.06,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.53,
    "away_win_probability": 0.47
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.06,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "HOU wins 4-3 (Extra Innings - 10)",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "KC 3 - 4 HOU",
    "confidence": 0.53,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5101,
    "sample_size": 361,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5623,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.5362,
    "published_confidence": 0.53,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 3,
    "sample_weight": 0.0409,
    "home_net_margin": -1.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 1.0,
    "home_average_margin": -0.333,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0068,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0068,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.3633,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.068,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.2124
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.026631350107847646
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.026520389317542754
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.026116847769420345
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.026008030677645733
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.023324482998279123
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06736953665756001,
      "1": 0.10449684842825037,
      "2": 0.1398272611303179,
      "3": 0.16140966485578218,
      "4": 0.16073714378934298,
      "5": 0.13808674241424104,
      "6": 0.1023379582663247,
      "7": 0.0654290385085522,
      "8": 0.0360872139825754,
      "9": 0.01717058918528446,
      "10": 0.007048002781768771
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.0702359435775708,
      "1": 0.10870455637423722,
      "2": 0.14450487223995725,
      "3": 0.16499228922656195,
      "4": 0.16180473327142753,
      "5": 0.13629038270759133,
      "6": 0.0986019754264772,
      "7": 0.061270642747406734,
      "8": 0.03270134927464581,
      "9": 0.014990817735622938,
      "10": 0.005902437418501311
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.95,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "KC 3 - 4 HOU",
      "winner": "HOU"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "KC 3 - 4 HOU",
      "winner": "HOU"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0484,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0487,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "HOU",
      "model_winner": "HOU",
      "simulation_winner": "HOU",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 3,
        "published_winner": "HOU",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "HOU",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.2124,
      "winner": "HOU",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "HOU",
    "display_confidence": 0.53,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6139,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.2124,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.068,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0484,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.3333,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 3,
        "median": 9,
        "max": 9,
        "range": 6
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
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      "parent_config_id": "candidate-ed18fee8af33cf7e",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-15T09:04:57.841906+00:00",
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        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
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        "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
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        "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
        "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
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    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
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    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-15T23:41:11.051423+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-16T00:10:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
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      "home_win_probability": 0.548992,
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      "confidence_governor": {
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        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
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  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.922735047995798,
      "home_runs": 5.048511480920636,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260915_LAD@CIN

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickLAD

Published scoreLAD 9 - 5 CIN

Final confidence58.0%

Calibrationraw 92.0% → blended 75.1%

Empirical signalhit rate 58.1% · weight 50.0% · n=129

H2H base featurehome net -20.0 · absolute 20.0 · n=4

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -1.9993

Simulation variance1.95

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	5.177937141576135-2.5304919269120982	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-3	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	8-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	9-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	9-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	9-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	9-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "LAD",
    "away_runs": 9,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": -0.16,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.58,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.42,
    "away_win_probability": 0.58
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.16,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "LAD wins 9-5",
    "away_runs": 9,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 9,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "LAD 9 - 5 CIN",
    "confidence": 0.58,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.92,
    "sample_size": 129,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5814,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.7507,
    "published_confidence": 0.58,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 4,
    "sample_weight": 0.05,
    "home_net_margin": -20.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 20.0,
    "home_average_margin": -5.0,
    "home_run_delta": -0.125,
    "away_run_delta": 0.125,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -13.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -2.35,
    "recent_quality_edge": -1.348,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -1.9993
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 8,
        "probability": 0.014060547870248349
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 8,
        "probability": 0.013981617524499125
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 9,
        "probability": 0.013799159074241918
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
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        "probability": 0.013721696061646008
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 7,
        "probability": 0.013458334173640112
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        "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5814,
        "empirical_weight": 0.5,
        "blended_confidence": 0.7507
      },
      "confidence_governor": {
        "applied": true,
        "policy": "align_to_calibrated_probability_v2",
        "raw_confidence": 0.58,
        "final_confidence": 0.7473,
        "calibrated_pick_probability": 0.7473,
        "shrinkage_weight": 0.920408,
        "hard_maximum": 0.9,
        "confidence_floor": 0.505,
        "score_gap": 3.65,
        "calibration_sample_size": 129,
        "calibration_empirical_hit_rate": 0.5814,
        "calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.5714,
        "calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
        "season_quality_edge": 1.9993,
        "reasons": [
          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability",
          "season run-differential edge supports the pick"
        ],
        "score_coherence": {
          "policy": "probability_follows_published_score_v1",
          "published_score": {
            "away_runs": 8,
            "home_runs": 5
          },
          "margin": -3,
          "probability_before": 0.252723,
          "margin_implied_home_probability": 0.273038,
          "shrinkage_weight": 0.920408,
          "side_flipped": false,
          "applied": true,
          "probability_after": 0.26288,
          "aligned_pick_probability": 0.73712
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        "starter_experience": {
          "applied": false,
          "min_starter_games": 26,
          "shrink_factor": 1.0
        }
      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
        "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
        "available": true,
        "sample_size": 4,
        "sample_weight": 0.05,
        "home_net_margin": -20.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 20.0,
        "home_average_margin": -5.0,
        "home_run_delta": -0.125,
        "away_run_delta": 0.125,
        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": -3.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": -13.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": -1.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": -3.0
          }
        ],
        "adaptive_parameters": {
          "h2h.history_limit": 5,
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          "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
          "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
        }
      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "home": {
          "team": "CIN",
          "games": 150,
          "wins": 70,
          "losses": 80,
          "win_pct": 0.4666666666666667,
          "runs_scored": 625,
          "runs_allowed": 773,
          "run_differential": -148,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.9866666666666667,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "LAD",
          "games": 150,
          "wins": 91,
          "losses": 59,
          "win_pct": 0.6066666666666667,
          "runs_scored": 745,
          "runs_allowed": 572,
          "run_differential": 173,
          "run_differential_per_game": 1.1533333333333333,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": -2.14,
        "win_pct_edge": -0.14,
        "quality_edge": -1.9993,
        "season_quality_edge": -2.35,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": -2.35,
          "recent_quality_edge": -1.348,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": -1.9993
        },
        "margin_adjustment": -3.1989,
        "reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
          "adjustment": -3.1989,
          "cap": 4.0,
          "scale": 1.6,
          "quality_edge": -1.9993,
          "season_quality_edge": -2.35,
          "recent_alignment": "aligned",
          "large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": true,
          "method": "supported_large_edge_up_to_four_runs"
        },
        "adjusted_score": {
          "away_runs": 11.1,
          "home_runs": 0.0,
          "home_win_probability": 0.08
        }
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
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            "away_runs": 8,
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          },
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          {
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        ],
        "home_distribution": {
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        "away_distribution": {
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          "19": 0.0022236117967728707
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        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 1.85,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 5.177937141576135,
      "home_runs": 2.5304919269120982,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 8,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 9,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 9,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 9,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 9,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260915_MIA@ARI

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickARI

Published scoreMIA 4 - 6 ARI

Final confidence54.7%

Calibrationraw 51.0% → blended 53.4%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.9% · weight 50.0% · n=383

H2H base featurehome net -13.0 · absolute 13.0 · n=4

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.1715

Simulation variance1.95

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.664829914006165-5.253841469191229	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-6	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-6	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-6	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-6	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "ARI",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "confidence": 0.093474,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.546737,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.546737,
    "away_win_probability": 0.453263
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.093474,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "ARI wins 6-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 6
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "predicted_score_text": "MIA 4 - 6 ARI",
    "confidence": 0.54673725,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5101,
    "sample_size": 383,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5587,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.5344,
    "published_confidence": 0.546737,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 4,
    "sample_weight": 0.05,
    "home_net_margin": -13.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 13.0,
    "home_average_margin": -3.25,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0812,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0812,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -8.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.0464,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.404,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.1715
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.019522864551900092
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.019414525812744554
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.019409263898664857
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.01930155556656388
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.01753901107887722
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.043706398347283085,
      "1": 0.06898942772341833,
      "2": 0.09728925390947417,
      "3": 0.12257220843922409,
      "4": 0.13796342167246095,
      "5": 0.1387332979649721,
      "6": 0.12463564675912282,
      "7": 0.10003423161970997,
      "8": 0.07172983258589662,
      "9": 0.04595108828959082,
      "10": 0.0262988400394972,
      "11": 0.01344690055831996,
      "12": 0.006142605165221148,
      "13": 0.0025068469258086655
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.045493157417898895,
      "1": 0.07171887456920374,
      "2": 0.10075471674912329,
      "3": 0.12613680938865213,
      "4": 0.1407222695508132,
      "5": 0.13990342753594295,
      "6": 0.12394768299256319,
      "7": 0.09785724962792448,
      "8": 0.06884812739529166,
      "9": 0.043165402389967175,
      "10": 0.024117039218627165,
      "11": 0.012007614037786288,
      "12": 0.005327629126205926
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.95,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "MIA 4 - 6 ARI",
      "winner": "ARI"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "MIA 4 - 6 ARI",
      "winner": "ARI"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.105,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.229,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "winner": "ARI",
      "model_winner": "ARI",
      "simulation_winner": "ARI",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 5,
        "published_winner": "ARI",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.8,
        "draw_majority_team": "ARI",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 6
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 6
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.1715,
      "winner": "ARI",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 6,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "ARI",
    "display_confidence": 0.5467,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6499,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5467,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.1715,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.404,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.105,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.8,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.4,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.6,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 5,
        "median": 5,
        "max": 13,
        "range": 8
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-57e651c7f36832cf",
      "config_hash": "sha256:3d9930771042cec882c8a869e835917939fd7c764fe71a6d765dc4a636b90c8d",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-ed18fee8af33cf7e",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-15T09:04:57.841906+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.95,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
        "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
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    {
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    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
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    }
  ]
}

20260915_MIL@PIT

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickMIL

Published scoreMIL 5 - 2 PIT

Final confidence56.0%

Calibrationraw 73.0% → blended 64.2%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.4% · weight 50.0% · n=363

H2H base featurehome net 3.0 · absolute 3.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.9697

Simulation variance1.95

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.924540008837964-3.477729920710153	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-3	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-3	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-2	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-2	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-2	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-2	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIL",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 2,
    "confidence": -0.12,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.56,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.44,
    "away_win_probability": 0.56
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.12,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIL wins 5-2",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 2
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 2,
    "predicted_score_text": "MIL 5 - 2 PIT",
    "confidence": 0.56,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.729534,
    "sample_size": 363,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5537,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.641617,
    "published_confidence": 0.56,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
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            "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
            "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
            "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
            "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
            "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
            "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
            "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
            "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
            "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
            "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
            "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
            "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
            "context.lineup_context_min": 0.8,
            "context.lineup_context_weight": 1.0,
            "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
            "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
            "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
            "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
            "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
            "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
            "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
            "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
            "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
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    },
    "diagnostics": {
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        "raw_confidence": 0.729534,
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        "reasons": [
          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability"
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        "score_coherence": {
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          "published_score": {
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        "evidence": [
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            "home_margin": -3.0
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            "home_margin": -2.0
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            "home_margin": 9.0
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          "losses": 75,
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          "run_differential": 26,
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        "away": {
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          "games": 150,
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        "run_differential_edge_per_game": -1.1267,
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        "quality_edge": -0.9697,
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        "recent_quality_blend": {
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          "alignment": "aligned",
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        "margin_adjustment": -0.4073,
        "reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
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          "cap": 1.4,
          "scale": 0.42,
          "quality_edge": -0.9697,
          "season_quality_edge": -1.3067,
          "recent_alignment": "aligned",
          "large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": false,
          "method": "standard_bounded_season_recent_adjustment"
        },
        "adjusted_score": {
          "away_runs": 5.18,
          "home_runs": 1.63,
          "home_win_probability": 0.1982
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      },
      "score_distribution": {
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        "home_distribution": {
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        "away_distribution": {
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        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
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    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.924540008837964,
      "home_runs": 3.477729920710153,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260915_NYY@MIN

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickNYY

Published scoreNYY 6 - 3 MIN

Final confidence57.0%

Calibrationraw 73.0% → blended 63.3%

Empirical signalhit rate 53.7% · weight 50.0% · n=216

H2H base featurehome net 4.0 · absolute 4.0 · n=4

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -1.3184

Simulation variance1.95

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.96036908832857-3.022320208077801	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-3	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-3	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	6-3	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	6-3	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	6-3	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	6-3	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYY",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "confidence": -0.14,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.57,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.43,
    "away_win_probability": 0.57
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.14,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYY wins 6-3",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 3
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "predicted_score_text": "NYY 6 - 3 MIN",
    "confidence": 0.57,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.729666,
    "sample_size": 216,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.537,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.633333,
    "published_confidence": 0.57,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 4,
    "sample_weight": 0.05,
    "home_net_margin": 4.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 4.0,
    "home_average_margin": 1.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.025,
    "away_run_delta": -0.025,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 7.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -1.4833,
    "recent_quality_edge": -1.012,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -1.3184
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.02357919883395811
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.022469459630271173
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.022316482857712695
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.02182345167223547
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.0215228686898084
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.0809904074004654,
      "1": 0.1243172676975677,
      "2": 0.16121106133754773,
      "3": 0.17661343031430696,
      "4": 0.16346249456029555,
      "5": 0.12781388232458307,
      "6": 0.08443129274921676,
      "7": 0.04711881492247992,
      "8": 0.022215228623574373,
      "9": 0.008848562503129579,
      "10": 0.0029775575668329122
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.03736165620324592,
      "1": 0.05925450615189081,
      "2": 0.08475726503709102,
      "3": 0.10934345039709512,
      "4": 0.12722395794183827,
      "5": 0.13350739404130144,
      "6": 0.12635779067309638,
      "7": 0.10785965257244542,
      "8": 0.08303788875129665,
      "9": 0.057657242569450665,
      "10": 0.036107026685641565,
      "11": 0.02039341108060865,
      "12": 0.01038839151070413,
      "13": 0.004772731820373603,
      "14": 0.001977634563920352
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.95,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "NYY 6 - 3 MIN",
      "winner": "NYY"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "NYY 6 - 3 MIN",
      "winner": "NYY"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0458,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -1.012,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "winner": "NYY",
      "model_winner": "NYY",
      "simulation_winner": "NYY",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 3,
        "published_winner": "NYY",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "NYY",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 3,
      "simulation_margin": 3,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 3
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 3
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 3,
      "final_margin": 3,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.3184,
      "winner": "NYY",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 3,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "NYY",
    "display_confidence": 0.57,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.72,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.57,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "supported_runline_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 3,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.3184,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 1.012,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0458,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.6667,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.6667,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 6,
        "median": 6,
        "max": 8,
        "range": 2
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-57e651c7f36832cf",
      "config_hash": "sha256:3d9930771042cec882c8a869e835917939fd7c764fe71a6d765dc4a636b90c8d",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-ed18fee8af33cf7e",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-15T09:04:57.841906+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.95,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
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        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
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    {
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  ]
}

20260915_OAK@TB

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickTB

Published scoreOAK 4 - 8 TB

Final confidence66.7%

Calibrationraw 92.0% → blended 91.0%

Empirical signalhit rate 76.9% · weight 6.5% · n=13

H2H base featurehome net 16.0 · absolute 16.0 · n=3

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 1.4991

Simulation variance1.95

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.8980215079789615-5.738627605810255	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-6	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-8	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-8	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-8	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-8	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-8	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

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  "published_prediction": {
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  "simulation_prediction": {
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    "home_runs": 8
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  "pre_simulation_target": {
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    "home_runs": 8,
    "predicted_score_text": "OAK 4 - 8 TB",
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    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
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  "confidence_calibration": {
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    "applied": true,
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    "empirical_weight": 0.065,
    "blended_confidence": 0.910198,
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    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
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  "h2h_base_feature": {
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    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 3,
    "sample_weight": 0.0409,
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    "absolute_net_margin": 16.0,
    "home_average_margin": 5.333,
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    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
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      "home_runs": 8,
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      "winner": "TB"
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    "final_simulation_score": {
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      "winner": "TB"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
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      "thresholds": {
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    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
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    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
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      "simulation_winner": "TB",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
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        "draw_count": 6,
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        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "TB",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 4,
      "simulation_margin": 4,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
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      "simulation_realized_target": true,
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      "simulation_score": {
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    "final_margin_quality_review": {
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      "pre_margin": 4,
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      "score_reviewed": {
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        "home_runs": 8,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
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      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
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  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "TB",
    "display_confidence": 0.6674,
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    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
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    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "supported_runline_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
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        "median": 13,
        "max": 16,
        "range": 11
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    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
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            "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
            "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
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            "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
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            "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
            "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
            "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
            "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
            "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
            "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
            "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
            "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
            "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
            "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
            "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
            "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
            "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
            "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
            "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
            "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
            "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
            "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
            "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
            "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
            "context.lineup_context_min": 0.8,
            "context.lineup_context_weight": 1.0,
            "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
            "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
            "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
            "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
            "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
            "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
            "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
            "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
            "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "diagnostics": {
      "confidence_calibration": {
        "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
        "applied": true,
        "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
        "raw_confidence": 0.92,
        "sample_size": 13,
        "empirical_hit_rate": 0.7692,
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      "confidence_governor": {
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        "score_gap": 4.25,
        "calibration_sample_size": 13,
        "calibration_empirical_hit_rate": 0.7692,
        "calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.5854,
        "calibration_sparse_bucket": true,
        "season_quality_edge": 1.4991,
        "reasons": [
          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability",
          "verified calibration sample is sparse; probability was shrunk toward even rather than clamped",
          "season run-differential edge supports the pick"
        ],
        "score_coherence": {
          "policy": "probability_follows_published_score_v1",
          "published_score": {
            "away_runs": 4,
            "home_runs": 8
          },
          "margin": 4,
          "probability_before": 0.668988,
          "margin_implied_home_probability": 0.789552,
          "shrinkage_weight": 0.556098,
          "side_flipped": false,
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          "magnitude_pull_suppressed": true,
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        "starter_experience": {
          "applied": false,
          "min_starter_games": 31,
          "shrink_factor": 1.0
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      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
        "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
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        "home_net_margin": 16.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 16.0,
        "home_average_margin": 5.333,
        "home_run_delta": 0.1091,
        "away_run_delta": -0.1091,
        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": 4.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 8.0
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          {
            "home_margin": 4.0
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        "adaptive_parameters": {
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      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
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        "home": {
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          "games": 149,
          "wins": 90,
          "losses": 59,
          "win_pct": 0.6040268456375839,
          "runs_scored": 682,
          "runs_allowed": 613,
          "run_differential": 69,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.46308724832214765,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "OAK",
          "games": 150,
          "wins": 61,
          "losses": 89,
          "win_pct": 0.4066666666666667,
          "runs_scored": 656,
          "runs_allowed": 859,
          "run_differential": -203,
          "run_differential_per_game": -1.3533333333333333,
          "available": true
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        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 1.8164,
        "win_pct_edge": 0.1974,
        "quality_edge": 1.4991,
        "season_quality_edge": 2.1125,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": 2.1125,
          "recent_quality_edge": 0.36,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": 1.4991
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        "margin_adjustment": 0.6296,
        "reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
          "adjustment": 0.6296,
          "cap": 1.4,
          "scale": 0.42,
          "quality_edge": 1.4991,
          "season_quality_edge": 2.1125,
          "recent_alignment": "aligned",
          "large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": false,
          "method": "standard_bounded_season_recent_adjustment"
        },
        "adjusted_score": {
          "away_runs": 2.782,
          "home_runs": 9.402,
          "home_win_probability": 0.92
        }
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
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        ],
        "home_distribution": {
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        "variance_multiplier": 1.85,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.8980215079789615,
      "home_runs": 5.738627605810255,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 8,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 8,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 8,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 8,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 8,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260915_PHI@WAS

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickPHI

Published scorePHI 6 - 5 WAS

Final confidence53.3%

Calibrationraw 59.5% → blended 57.8%

Empirical signalhit rate 56.1% · weight 50.0% · n=358

H2H base featurehome net -11.0 · absolute 11.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.3167

Simulation variance1.95

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	5.903924062979347-3.495206673405243	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	6-3	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	6-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	6-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	6-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	6-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	6-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "PHI",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": -0.06629,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.533145,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.466855,
    "away_win_probability": 0.533145
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.06629,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "PHI wins 6-5",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "PHI 6 - 5 WAS",
    "confidence": 0.53314541,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.595028,
    "sample_size": 358,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5615,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.578264,
    "published_confidence": 0.533145,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -11.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 11.0,
    "home_average_margin": -2.2,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0635,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0635,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 6.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -5.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.3214,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.308,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.3167
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.016836152744296957
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.01666062915034021
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.016024425956551066
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.015970101965937258
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.015857364937462818
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.03668713292733573,
      "1": 0.05821449305833506,
      "2": 0.08339747885385272,
      "3": 0.1078646601037165,
      "4": 0.1259533990356623,
      "5": 0.1327837899439074,
      "6": 0.12638184284156814,
      "7": 0.10859973429247659,
      "8": 0.08425143312328419,
      "9": 0.05901063481976546,
      "10": 0.037315368242145416,
      "11": 0.021303434842967185,
      "12": 0.010980345058258486,
      "13": 0.005109598778178719,
      "14": 0.0021466540785460998
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.032065436312160266,
      "1": 0.0510612773093716,
      "2": 0.07393073082575359,
      "3": 0.09732784959668528,
      "4": 0.11650057276437085,
      "5": 0.12679373552606946,
      "6": 0.1254718603632134,
      "7": 0.11289473318880593,
      "8": 0.09235912921392163,
      "9": 0.0687012725617082,
      "10": 0.046465277748655574,
      "11": 0.028574003743632805,
      "12": 0.015976897940945978,
      "13": 0.008122554397366867,
      "14": 0.0037546685073384747
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.95,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "PHI 6 - 5 WAS",
      "winner": "PHI"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "PHI 6 - 5 WAS",
      "winner": "PHI"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0982,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.518,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "PHI",
      "model_winner": "PHI",
      "simulation_winner": "PHI",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 6,
        "published_winner": "PHI",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.3333,
        "draw_majority_team": "WAS",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.3167,
      "winner": "PHI",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "PHI",
    "display_confidence": 0.5331,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5196,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5331,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.3167,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.308,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0982,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.3333,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.1667,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.3333,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.1667,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 5,
        "median": 9,
        "max": 12,
        "range": 7
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
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        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 5.903924062979347,
      "home_runs": 3.495206673405243,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260915_SD@COL

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickSD

Published scoreSD 9 - 5 COL

Final confidence58.0%

Calibrationraw 88.6% → blended 72.2%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.8% · weight 50.0% · n=274

H2H base featurehome net -1.0 · absolute 1.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -1.4794

Simulation variance1.95

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	5.321495379713184-4.529239645901103	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	8-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	9-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	9-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	9-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	9-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "SD",
    "away_runs": 9,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": -0.16,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.58,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.42,
    "away_win_probability": 0.58
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.16,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "SD wins 9-5",
    "away_runs": 9,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 9,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "SD 9 - 5 COL",
    "confidence": 0.58,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.886088,
    "sample_size": 274,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5584,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.722244,
    "published_confidence": 0.58,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -1.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 1.0,
    "home_average_margin": -0.2,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0058,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0058,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -1.5567,
    "recent_quality_edge": -1.336,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -1.4794
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 8,
        "probability": 0.013280535650929756
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 8,
        "probability": 0.01295135393128291
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 9,
        "probability": 0.012864649707746685
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 7,
        "probability": 0.012858959749397884
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 9,
        "probability": 0.012545776461609669
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.03379001666494784,
      "1": 0.05373605114035119,
      "2": 0.07749390369359638,
      "3": 0.10134300463674317,
      "4": 0.12018339309554638,
      "5": 0.12924673876430923,
      "6": 0.12604312824411132,
      "7": 0.11146620121642851,
      "8": 0.0893905635517245,
      "9": 0.06500766954868441,
      "10": 0.04287083741884207,
      "11": 0.025637978787803595,
      "12": 0.013903689110339647,
      "13": 0.006837553856940186,
      "14": 0.0030492702696316505
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.01319931113106502,
      "1": 0.021347778798185182,
      "2": 0.03238372033137889,
      "3": 0.04607585517655046,
      "4": 0.06148832845669057,
      "5": 0.0769634606871573,
      "6": 0.09035435842058004,
      "7": 0.0994915606562973,
      "8": 0.10275335206057132,
      "9": 0.09953558465568949,
      "10": 0.09043433787317037,
      "11": 0.07706567253728586,
      "12": 0.06159723254268355,
      "13": 0.04617788590822198,
      "14": 0.0324697922900353,
      "15": 0.02141398985801078,
      "16": 0.0132461080408836,
      "17": 0.007685136958081446,
      "18": 0.0041820338931164505,
      "19": 0.0021344997243450967
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.95,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 9,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "SD 9 - 5 COL",
      "winner": "SD"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 9,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "SD 9 - 5 COL",
      "winner": "SD"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0049,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -1.546,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 9,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "SD",
      "model_winner": "SD",
      "simulation_winner": "SD",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 4,
        "published_winner": "SD",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.75,
        "draw_majority_team": "SD",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 4,
      "simulation_margin": 4,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 9,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 9,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 4,
      "final_margin": 4,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.4794,
      "winner": "SD",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 9,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "SD",
    "display_confidence": 0.58,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.72,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.58,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "supported_runline_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 4,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.4794,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 1.336,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0049,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.75,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.5,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.25,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 8,
        "median": 10,
        "max": 12,
        "range": 4
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
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    "adaptive_configuration": {
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      "parent_config_id": "candidate-ed18fee8af33cf7e",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-15T09:04:57.841906+00:00",
      "parameters": {
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        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
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        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
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        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
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        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
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        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
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        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
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        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
        "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
        "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
        "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
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        "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
        "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
        "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
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  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
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      "parent_config_hash": "sha256:4c40ee6a3671b3a7c2775a53d9c67b935e269d408c98251960ad257a5d502c6c"
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    "changes": [
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        "new_value": 1.95,
        "risk_tier": "low",
        "evaluation_mode": "artifact_replay"
      }
    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
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    ],
    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-16T00:37:09.925818+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-16T00:40:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "away",
      "home_win_probability": 0.302515,
      "confidence": 0.697485,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 8,
        "total_runs": 13
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
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            "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
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            "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
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            "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
            "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
            "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
            "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
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      }
    },
    "candidate_prediction": {
      "predicted_winner": "away",
      "home_win_probability": 0.297761,
      "confidence": 0.702239,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 8,
        "total_runs": 13
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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          "config_id": "candidate-ed18fee8af33cf7e",
          "config_hash": "sha256:f542511539f291f9f8af06cbdac9abb41ef927ee79bd9dfa8da0185765dd9140",
          "parent_config_id": "candidate-11bc4bc2dfc7264a-registry-4c40ee6a3671",
          "created_at_utc": "2026-09-12T09:04:27.150731+00:00",
          "parameters": {
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            "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
            "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
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            "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
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            "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
            "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
            "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
            "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
            "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
            "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
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            "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
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            "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
            "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
            "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
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    },
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        "raw_confidence": 0.886088,
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        "calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
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          "season run-differential edge supports the pick"
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        "score_coherence": {
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          "published_score": {
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        "starter_experience": {
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          "min_starter_games": 23,
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      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
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            "home_margin": -2.0
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      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
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          "runs_scored": 703,
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          "run_differential": -170,
          "run_differential_per_game": -1.1333333333333333,
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        "away": {
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          "wins": 82,
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        "run_differential_edge_per_game": -1.2867,
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        "recent_quality_blend": {
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        "margin_adjustment": -0.6213,
        "reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
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          "cap": 1.4,
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          "recent_alignment": "aligned",
          "large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": false,
          "method": "standard_bounded_season_recent_adjustment"
        },
        "adjusted_score": {
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          "home_runs": 2.287,
          "home_win_probability": 0.08
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      "score_distribution": {
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        "home_distribution": {
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          "17": 0.006840746600025956,
          "18": 0.0036020927893228778,
          "19": 0.0017728611538621116
        },
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        "variance_multiplier": 1.85,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 5.321495379713184,
      "home_runs": 4.529239645901103,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 8,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 9,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 9,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 9,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 9,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260915_SEA@LAA

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickSEA

Published scoreSEA 5 - 4 LAA

Final confidence53.0%

Calibrationraw 53.1% → blended 54.8%

Empirical signalhit rate 56.4% · weight 50.0% · n=326

H2H base featurehome net -7.0 · absolute 7.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.1775

Simulation variance1.95

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.917732230847752-2.8509899040444764	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-3	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "SEA",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": -0.06,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.47,
    "away_win_probability": 0.53
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.06,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "SEA wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "SEA 5 - 4 LAA",
    "confidence": 0.53,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5309,
    "sample_size": 326,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5644,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.54765,
    "published_confidence": 0.53,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -7.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 7.0,
    "home_average_margin": -1.4,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0404,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0404,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.2213,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.096,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.1775
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.019481596656994407
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.019247389298189498
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.01906841974655708
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.018839179592166494
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.01784477175315026
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.046416226470651654,
      "1": 0.07312320019775406,
      "2": 0.10251349260450897,
      "3": 0.12789316974301684,
      "4": 0.141988821048242,
      "5": 0.14028183432928681,
      "6": 0.1233358127003161,
      "7": 0.09649780717990003,
      "8": 0.06718714239685786,
      "9": 0.041628942294086216,
      "10": 0.02295329634507807,
      "11": 0.011262511099376451,
      "12": 0.004917743590924918
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.0413606380194975,
      "1": 0.06540194306055946,
      "2": 0.09271941408429062,
      "3": 0.11784938257013189,
      "4": 0.13429521849525328,
      "5": 0.13720514413156057,
      "6": 0.1256773006593761,
      "7": 0.10320955360446106,
      "8": 0.0759905452629959,
      "9": 0.05016211361127283,
      "10": 0.029687163190786243,
      "11": 0.015752089755817877,
      "12": 0.0074934922301665655,
      "13": 0.003196001323829945
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.95,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "SEA 5 - 4 LAA",
      "winner": "SEA"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "SEA 5 - 4 LAA",
      "winner": "SEA"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0979,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.166,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "SEA",
      "model_winner": "SEA",
      "simulation_winner": "SEA",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 6,
        "published_winner": "SEA",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667,
        "draw_majority_team": "SEA",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
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        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
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      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
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      "simulation_score": {
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          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": -0.1775
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 0.0,
        "reason": "season quality edge below action threshold"
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 5,
            "probability": 0.020322049588682882
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          {
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          {
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            "away_runs": 4,
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          {
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        ],
        "home_distribution": {
          "0": 0.0446119805060339,
          "1": 0.07202882695382164,
          "2": 0.10284029381536021,
          "3": 0.12984415487431167,
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          "5": 0.14313537494471262,
          "6": 0.12497192534829632,
          "7": 0.09648950311602601,
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          "9": 0.03977605192657686,
          "10": 0.02123712232866839,
          "11": 0.010027017937895852,
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        "away_distribution": {
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          "3": 0.11941830423946286,
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          "7": 0.10383638829733532,
          "8": 0.07519729000334786,
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          "11": 0.014316574256169437,
          "12": 0.006542510698959649,
          "13": 0.0026647897656992712
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 1.85,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.917732230847752,
      "home_runs": 2.8509899040444764,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260915_SF@STL

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickSTL

Published scoreSF 4 - 5 STL

Final confidence55.3%

Calibrationraw 55.4% → blended 55.8%

Empirical signalhit rate 56.2% · weight 50.0% · n=365

H2H base featurehome net -2.0 · absolute 2.0 · n=4

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.4695

Simulation variance1.95

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.9519492064779613-4.7758891795560805	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "STL",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.106234,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.553117,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.553117,
    "away_win_probability": 0.446883
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.106234,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "STL wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "SF 4 - 5 STL",
    "confidence": 0.553116755,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.553892,
    "sample_size": 365,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5616,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.557746,
    "published_confidence": 0.553117,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 4,
    "sample_weight": 0.05,
    "home_net_margin": -2.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 2.0,
    "home_average_margin": -0.5,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0125,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0125,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.606,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.216,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.4695
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  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02054093554744645
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      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.020156921727055195
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.01946286512140259
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      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.019113421179333595
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.019099005881702154
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    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04173888815924486,
      "1": 0.06598124995130486,
      "2": 0.09346075564254994,
      "3": 0.11862251415911816,
      "4": 0.13490686432626062,
      "5": 0.13747700380829256,
      "6": 0.12553220461166717,
      "7": 0.10270919859206604,
      "8": 0.07529959010759982,
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      "11": 0.01535737357930955,
      "12": 0.007257993393682444,
      "13": 0.0030735853339088778
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    "away_distribution": {
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      "3": 0.13902995155456452,
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      "5": 0.14157178715171123,
      "6": 0.11826821189193625,
      "7": 0.08710921702218061,
      "8": 0.056567235217316394,
      "9": 0.032386987850228255,
      "10": 0.01634861351768685,
      "11": 0.007276056439827097,
      "12": 0.0028550646992547874
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    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.95,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "SF 4 - 5 STL",
      "winner": "STL"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "SF 4 - 5 STL",
      "winner": "STL"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0571,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.041,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "STL",
      "model_winner": "STL",
      "simulation_winner": "STL",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "STL",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "STL",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
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        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
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        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
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      "winner": "STL",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "STL",
    "display_confidence": 0.5531,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6378,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5531,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.4695,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.216,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0571,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.5,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.5,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 5,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 7,
        "range": 2
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
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      "parent_config_id": "candidate-ed18fee8af33cf7e",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-15T09:04:57.841906+00:00",
      "parameters": {
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        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
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        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
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        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
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        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
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        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
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        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
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        "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
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        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
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        "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
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  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
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    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
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    "changes": [
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        "new_value": 1.95,
        "risk_tier": "low",
        "evaluation_mode": "artifact_replay"
      }
    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
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    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-15T23:40:33.179752+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-15T23:45:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.573518,
      "confidence": 0.573518,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "total_runs": 9
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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          "parent_config_id": "candidate-ed18fee8af33cf7e",
          "created_at_utc": "2026-09-15T09:04:57.841906+00:00",
          "parameters": {
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            "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
            "confidence.base_cap": 0.58,
            "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
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            "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
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            "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
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            "recent.window_games": 10,
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            "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
            "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
            "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
            "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
            "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
            "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
            "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
            "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
            "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
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            "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
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            "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
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            "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
            "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
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            "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
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        }
      }
    },
    "candidate_prediction": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.57406,
      "confidence": 0.57406,
      "predicted_score": {
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        "away_runs": 4,
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      },
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      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
          "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
          "config_id": "candidate-ed18fee8af33cf7e",
          "config_hash": "sha256:f542511539f291f9f8af06cbdac9abb41ef927ee79bd9dfa8da0185765dd9140",
          "parent_config_id": "candidate-11bc4bc2dfc7264a-registry-4c40ee6a3671",
          "created_at_utc": "2026-09-12T09:04:27.150731+00:00",
          "parameters": {
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            "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
            "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
            "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
            "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
            "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
            "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
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            "score.variance_multiplier": 1.85,
            "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
            "recent.window_games": 10,
            "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
            "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
            "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
            "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
            "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
            "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
            "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
            "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
            "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
            "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
            "h2h.history_limit": 5,
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            "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
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            "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
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            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
            "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
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            "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
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            "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
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        }
      }
    },
    "diagnostics": {
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        "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
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      "confidence_governor": {
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        "calibration_sample_size": 365,
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        "calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.5587,
        "calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.4695,
        "reasons": [
          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability"
        ],
        "score_coherence": {
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          },
          "margin": 1,
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        "starter_experience": {
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          "min_starter_games": 15,
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      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
        "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
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        "home_net_margin": -2.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 2.0,
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        "home_run_delta": -0.0125,
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        "evidence": [
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          {
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          {
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        ],
        "adaptive_parameters": {
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      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "home": {
          "team": "STL",
          "games": 151,
          "wins": 75,
          "losses": 76,
          "win_pct": 0.4966887417218543,
          "runs_scored": 685,
          "runs_allowed": 691,
          "run_differential": -6,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.039735099337748346,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "SF",
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          "losses": 89,
          "win_pct": 0.4105960264900662,
          "runs_scored": 633,
          "runs_allowed": 711,
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          "run_differential_per_game": -0.5165562913907285,
          "available": true
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        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 0.4768,
        "win_pct_edge": 0.0861,
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        "recent_quality_blend": {
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          "recent_quality_edge": 0.216,
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          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
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        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
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        "adjusted_score": {
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        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
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      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.9519492064779613,
      "home_runs": 4.7758891795560805,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

Every reviewed game

Date	Game	Pick	Final confidence	Raw confidence	Empirical hit rate	Empirical weight	Pred A-H	Actual A-H	Result	Largest recorded movement	Pipeline	Roadmap signals
20260915	20260915_ATL@CHC	CHC	53.5%	59.8%	55.6%	50.0%	4.0-5.0	6-3	miss	Variance Applied (0.5764)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.598382, "sample_size": 653, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5559, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.577141, "published_confidence": 0.535473, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 4, "sample_weight": 0.05, "home_net_margin": 0.0, "absolute_net_margin": 0.0, "home_average_margin": 0.0, "home_run_delta": 0.0, "away_run_delta": -0.0, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 4.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.1589, "recent_quality_edge": 0.376, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.2349 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.01927560338926407 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01898326671104983 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.0185796822091256 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.018297899975407445 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.017990128097722484 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.03904364997285951, "1": 0.061843465273474806, "2": 0.0881239176144628, "3": 0.11296667569408739, "4": 0.13027571802548155, "5": 0.1351553295501152, "6": 0.1261419236842526, "7": 0.10591129965428675, "8": 0.07999847692182346, "9": 0.05435978288695238, "10": 0.033229995465588184, "11": 0.01827424420264465, "12": 0.0090407641545009, "13": 0.004023717014357704, "14": 0.001611039885112081 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.04688689657227606, "1": 0.07383852871169123, "2": 0.10340640416841602, "3": 0.12877889477181476, "4": 0.14261815241341805, "5": 0.1404551842257237, "6": 0.12300806782388575, "7": 0.09579928663365228, "8": 0.0663473847589885, "9": 0.04086186623200381, "10": 0.022379245575044546, "11": 0.010899474044562226, "12": 0.004720614068523342 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.95, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "ATL 4 - 5 CHC", "winner": "CHC" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "ATL 4 - 5 CHC", "winner": "CHC" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.1431, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.376, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "CHC", "model_winner": "CHC", "simulation_winner": "CHC", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "CHC", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5, "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.2349, "winner": "CHC", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260915	20260915_BAL@NYM	NYM	53.0%	64.9%	55.4%	50.0%	4.0-5.0	7-5	miss	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.649328, "sample_size": 363, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5537, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.601514, "published_confidence": 0.53, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 1, "sample_weight": 0.0167, "home_net_margin": -1.0, "absolute_net_margin": 1.0, "home_average_margin": -1.0, "home_run_delta": -0.0083, "away_run_delta": 0.0083, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.0433, "recent_quality_edge": 0.668, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.2056 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.021200524644281314 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.020614466893417345 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.020455001474141254 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.019889552629879372 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.01976315891133572 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.0391871202656259, "1": 0.06206400527525854, "2": 0.08840949493770342, "3": 0.1132715076198981, "4": 0.13052842967424866, "5": 0.13528579763665968, "6": 0.12611361096015686, "7": 0.10573879968218738, "8": 0.07973875533241602, "9": 0.05408379893282695, "10": 0.03299343915760579, "11": 0.018103003979538932, "12": 0.008933802906135086, "13": 0.003965379418313688, "14": 0.0015830542214251158 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.06101963784510661, "1": 0.09508401534425846, "2": 0.1290003648794035, "3": 0.15237716932254866, "4": 0.15670916692393738, "5": 0.14031834050183356, "6": 0.10939060273322375, "7": 0.07424908880310788, "8": 0.04387809649236442, "9": 0.022576154421010585, "10": 0.010113411832311908, "11": 0.003944490876795958, "12": 0.0013394600240974426 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.95, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "BAL 4 - 5 NYM", "winner": "NYM" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "BAL 4 - 5 NYM", "winner": "NYM" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.093, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.318, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "NYM", "model_winner": "NYM", "simulation_winner": "NYM", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "NYM", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.3333, "draw_majority_team": "BAL", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.2056, "winner": "NYM", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260915	20260915_BOS@TEX	BOS	51.5%	51.0%	55.6%	50.0%	7.0-6.0	2-4	miss	Fundamental Edge Target Review (2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.5101, "sample_size": 593, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5565, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.5333, "published_confidence": 0.515162, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 3, "sample_weight": 0.0409, "home_net_margin": -10.0, "absolute_net_margin": 10.0, "home_average_margin": -3.333, "home_run_delta": -0.0682, "away_run_delta": 0.0682, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": -9.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.96, "recent_quality_edge": -0.22, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.701 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.018558924679339187 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.01812168753961452 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01793875375013351 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.017516127465720312 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.017262401827510262 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.03945428230022149, "1": 0.06247455946180839, "2": 0.08894061510452136, "3": 0.11383738910021501, "4": 0.13099586768837382, "5": 0.13552460084999593, "6": 0.12605687871506943, "7": 0.10541510203970854, "8": 0.07925505818405468, "9": 0.053572142621984314, "10": 0.03255659036403123, "11": 0.017787982171687606, "12": 0.008737804577523853, "13": 0.003858920583492617, "14": 0.0015322062373118452 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.04100630133920461, "1": 0.06485897140096966, "2": 0.09202338265560378, "3": 0.11712106369610539, "4": 0.13371511464307748, "5": 0.13694137125613784, "6": 0.1258048898946269, "7": 0.10367380780917633, "8": 0.07663889885322503, "9": 0.05082040722564615, "10": 0.03022982991158812, "11": 0.01613028143322845, "12": 0.0077207033195697975, "13": 0.0033149765618407153 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.95, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "BOS 7 - 6 TEX", "winner": "BOS" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "BOS 7 - 6 TEX", "winner": "BOS" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0249, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.3367, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 6, "winner": "BOS", "model_winner": "BOS", "simulation_winner": "BOS", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "BOS", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5, "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 6 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 6 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.701, "winner": "BOS", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 6, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260915	20260915_CHW@CLE	CHW	54.5%	49.9%	56.2%	50.0%	5.0-4.0	6-7	miss	Variance Applied (-0.2234)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.499097, "sample_size": 361, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5623, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.530699, "published_confidence": 0.544573, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -4.0, "absolute_net_margin": 4.0, "home_average_margin": -0.8, "home_run_delta": -0.0231, "away_run_delta": 0.0231, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -4.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": 6.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.3412, "recent_quality_edge": 0.12, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": -0.1798 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.019909624434648086 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.019439458641507312 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.0193204227697237 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.01886417097425869 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.018291787318699303 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.049070414421178904, "1": 0.07715056585238023, "2": 0.10751450197225619, "3": 0.13280166538410404, "4": 0.1453946870410351, "5": 0.14109190413536388, "6": 0.12135682178518602, "7": 0.09251983204124867, "8": 0.06251928738229688, "9": 0.03744568197250908, "10": 0.019879159203929787, "11": 0.00935411750300501, "12": 0.003901361305506212 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.040997914226149255, "1": 0.06484611592815465, "2": 0.09200688939157144, "3": 0.11710377673211889, "4": 0.1337012998007339, "5": 0.1369350203905934, "6": 0.12580781107590794, "7": 0.10368474296430488, "8": 0.0766542570147913, "9": 0.05083605905652887, "10": 0.030242775561238774, "11": 0.016139333330167534, "12": 0.007726160219791752, "13": 0.0033178443079472757 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.95, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "CHW 5 - 4 CLE", "winner": "CHW" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "CHW 5 - 4 CLE", "winner": "CHW" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0082, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.09, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "CHW", "model_winner": "CHW", "simulation_winner": "CHW", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "CHW", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5, "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.1798, "winner": "CHW", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260915	20260915_DET@TOR	DET	56.2%	58.6%	56.3%	50.0%	5.0-4.0	10-1	hit	Variance Applied (-0.4148)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.5864, "sample_size": 327, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5627, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.57455, "published_confidence": 0.562215, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 4, "sample_weight": 0.05, "home_net_margin": 2.0, "absolute_net_margin": 2.0, "home_average_margin": 0.5, "home_run_delta": 0.0125, "away_run_delta": -0.0125, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": 3.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.6502, "recent_quality_edge": -0.428, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.5724 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.020365147637975832 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.01966960296824587 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.019174955044510472 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.019043058368769593 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.01896011880179246 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.053550319197515656, "1": 0.08391220751699989, "2": 0.11576683397108095, "3": 0.14061740960409275, "4": 0.1503799574417887, "5": 0.14159135866830874, "6": 0.11737604395194708, "7": 0.0856678986077418, "8": 0.05504941235578051, "9": 0.031144630865187106, "10": 0.015513493771843634, "11": 0.006803493445609622, "12": 0.00262694060210353 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.03934168731857592, "1": 0.06230155155126383, "2": 0.08871688094392564, "3": 0.11359917812516285, "4": 0.13079936517377905, "5": 0.1354246136547756, "6": 0.12608142151610746, "7": 0.10555191337241401, "8": 0.07945891786900601, "9": 0.05378741891428503, "10": 0.03274012135319108, "11": 0.0179201395575441, "12": 0.008819907135380792, "13": 0.00390344585585509, "14": 0.0015534376587337322 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.95, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "DET 5 - 4 TOR", "winner": "DET" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "DET 5 - 4 TOR", "winner": "DET" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0495, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.428, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "DET", "model_winner": "DET", "simulation_winner": "DET", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 5, "published_winner": "DET", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.4, "draw_majority_team": "TOR", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.5724, "winner": "DET", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260915	20260915_KC@HOU	HOU	53.0%	51.0%	56.2%	50.0%	3.0-4.0	2-4	hit	Variance Applied (-0.1258)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.5101, "sample_size": 361, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5623, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.5362, "published_confidence": 0.53, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 3, "sample_weight": 0.0409, "home_net_margin": -1.0, "absolute_net_margin": 1.0, "home_average_margin": -0.333, "home_run_delta": -0.0068, "away_run_delta": 0.0068, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -4.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.3633, "recent_quality_edge": -0.068, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.2124 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.026631350107847646 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.026520389317542754 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.026116847769420345 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.026008030677645733 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.023324482998279123 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.06736953665756001, "1": 0.10449684842825037, "2": 0.1398272611303179, "3": 0.16140966485578218, "4": 0.16073714378934298, "5": 0.13808674241424104, "6": 0.1023379582663247, "7": 0.0654290385085522, "8": 0.0360872139825754, "9": 0.01717058918528446, "10": 0.007048002781768771 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.0702359435775708, "1": 0.10870455637423722, "2": 0.14450487223995725, "3": 0.16499228922656195, "4": 0.16180473327142753, "5": 0.13629038270759133, "6": 0.0986019754264772, "7": 0.061270642747406734, "8": 0.03270134927464581, "9": 0.014990817735622938, "10": 0.005902437418501311 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.95, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "KC 3 - 4 HOU", "winner": "HOU" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "KC 3 - 4 HOU", "winner": "HOU" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0484, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0487, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "HOU", "model_winner": "HOU", "simulation_winner": "HOU", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "HOU", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "HOU", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.2124, "winner": "HOU", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260915	20260915_LAD@CIN	LAD	58.0%	92.0%	58.1%	50.0%	9.0-5.0	4-0	hit	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.92, "sample_size": 129, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5814, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.7507, "published_confidence": 0.58, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 4, "sample_weight": 0.05, "home_net_margin": -20.0, "absolute_net_margin": 20.0, "home_average_margin": -5.0, "home_run_delta": -0.125, "away_run_delta": 0.125, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": -13.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -2.35, "recent_quality_edge": -1.348, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -1.9993 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 8, "probability": 0.014060547870248349 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 8, "probability": 0.013981617524499125 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 9, "probability": 0.013799159074241918 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 9, "probability": 0.013721696061646008 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.013458334173640112 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.04369682329877266, "1": 0.06897480913560389, "2": 0.09727073449444784, "3": 0.12255327716324196, "4": 0.13794904837188574, "5": 0.1387278113486794, "6": 0.12464056424298171, "7": 0.10004751915534695, "8": 0.07174708942923433, "9": 0.0459677553565439, "10": 0.026311969247298107, "11": 0.013455642948861856, "12": 0.006147614155331709, "13": 0.002509341651769794 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.01239525900993174, "1": 0.020062749294056256, "2": 0.030504557428058517, "3": 0.043569086362915795, "4": 0.05845633990728828, "5": 0.0736756928334705, "6": 0.08722807327303145, "7": 0.0970125171211261, "8": 0.10135349021623699, "9": 0.09946930568636321, "10": 0.09170202088256219, "11": 0.07941602924434409, "12": 0.0646065980523547, "13": 0.049372488802255296, "14": 0.0354431741717265, "15": 0.02390119637221801, "16": 0.015140705545628384, "17": 0.009009735240789431, "18": 0.0050363671997635875, "19": 0.0026446133558792233 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.95, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 9, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "LAD 9 - 5 CIN", "winner": "LAD" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 9, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "LAD 9 - 5 CIN", "winner": "LAD" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": true, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.1107, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -1.698, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 9, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "LAD", "model_winner": "LAD", "simulation_winner": "LAD", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "LAD", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "LAD", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": true, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 4, "simulation_margin": 4, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 9, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 9, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 4, "final_margin": 4, "winner_quality_edge": 1.9993, "winner": "LAD", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 9, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260915	20260915_MIA@ARI	ARI	54.7%	51.0%	55.9%	50.0%	4.0-6.0	4-2	miss	Embedded Savant Run Environment (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.5101, "sample_size": 383, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5587, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.5344, "published_confidence": 0.546737, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 4, "sample_weight": 0.05, "home_net_margin": -13.0, "absolute_net_margin": 13.0, "home_average_margin": -3.25, "home_run_delta": -0.0812, "away_run_delta": 0.0812, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": -8.0 }, { "home_margin": -4.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.0464, "recent_quality_edge": 0.404, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.1715 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.019522864551900092 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.019414525812744554 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.019409263898664857 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01930155556656388 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.01753901107887722 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.043706398347283085, "1": 0.06898942772341833, "2": 0.09728925390947417, "3": 0.12257220843922409, "4": 0.13796342167246095, "5": 0.1387332979649721, "6": 0.12463564675912282, "7": 0.10003423161970997, "8": 0.07172983258589662, "9": 0.04595108828959082, "10": 0.0262988400394972, "11": 0.01344690055831996, "12": 0.006142605165221148, "13": 0.0025068469258086655 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.045493157417898895, "1": 0.07171887456920374, "2": 0.10075471674912329, "3": 0.12613680938865213, "4": 0.1407222695508132, "5": 0.13990342753594295, "6": 0.12394768299256319, "7": 0.09785724962792448, "8": 0.06884812739529166, "9": 0.043165402389967175, "10": 0.024117039218627165, "11": 0.012007614037786288, "12": 0.005327629126205926 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.95, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "MIA 4 - 6 ARI", "winner": "ARI" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "MIA 4 - 6 ARI", "winner": "ARI" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.105, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.229, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6, "winner": "ARI", "model_winner": "ARI", "simulation_winner": "ARI", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 5, "published_winner": "ARI", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.8, "draw_majority_team": "ARI", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": 0.1715, "winner": "ARI", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260915	20260915_MIL@PIT	MIL	56.0%	73.0%	55.4%	50.0%	5.0-2.0	5-1	hit	Embedded Savant Run Environment (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.729534, "sample_size": 363, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5537, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.641617, "published_confidence": 0.56, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 3.0, "absolute_net_margin": 3.0, "home_average_margin": 0.6, "home_run_delta": 0.0173, "away_run_delta": -0.0173, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": 9.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -1.3067, "recent_quality_edge": -0.344, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.9697 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.02511966994590426 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02447636612520695 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.023718976338346468 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.023136222015708786 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.023111543671661478 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.08968064777934061, "1": 0.1367270454277682, "2": 0.17373658026438488, "3": 0.18399637031197846, "4": 0.16240836338968354, "5": 0.11947820004712084, "6": 0.0732571636633584, "7": 0.03743627902935483, "8": 0.015944701695662162, "9": 0.005660063046571783, "10": 0.001674585344776161 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.04064292893717002, "1": 0.0642992459694721, "2": 0.0912931702387784, "3": 0.11632745416672984, "4": 0.13302635309438762, "5": 0.13652263848092294, "6": 0.12574281751580063, "7": 0.1039377301272311, "8": 0.07710362475485576, "9": 0.051331964945592425, "10": 0.030669910533838433, "11": 0.016445559587461286, "12": 0.007914005151776114, "13": 0.003417869904954839, "14": 0.0013247265910285462 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.95, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 2, "score_text": "MIL 5 - 2 PIT", "winner": "MIL" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 2, "score_text": "MIL 5 - 2 PIT", "winner": "MIL" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0265, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.414, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 2, "winner": "MIL", "model_winner": "MIL", "simulation_winner": "MIL", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "MIL", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "MIL", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 3, "simulation_margin": 3, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 2 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 2 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 3, "final_margin": 3, "winner_quality_edge": 0.9697, "winner": "MIL", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 2, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260915	20260915_NYY@MIN	NYY	57.0%	73.0%	53.7%	50.0%	6.0-3.0	8-1	hit	Embedded Savant Run Environment (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.729666, "sample_size": 216, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.537, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.633333, "published_confidence": 0.57, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 4, "sample_weight": 0.05, "home_net_margin": 4.0, "absolute_net_margin": 4.0, "home_average_margin": 1.0, "home_run_delta": 0.025, "away_run_delta": -0.025, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -5.0 }, { "home_margin": 5.0 }, { "home_margin": 7.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -1.4833, "recent_quality_edge": -1.012, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -1.3184 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.02357919883395811 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.022469459630271173 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.022316482857712695 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.02182345167223547 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.0215228686898084 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.0809904074004654, "1": 0.1243172676975677, "2": 0.16121106133754773, "3": 0.17661343031430696, "4": 0.16346249456029555, "5": 0.12781388232458307, "6": 0.08443129274921676, "7": 0.04711881492247992, "8": 0.022215228623574373, "9": 0.008848562503129579, "10": 0.0029775575668329122 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.03736165620324592, "1": 0.05925450615189081, "2": 0.08475726503709102, "3": 0.10934345039709512, "4": 0.12722395794183827, "5": 0.13350739404130144, "6": 0.12635779067309638, "7": 0.10785965257244542, "8": 0.08303788875129665, "9": 0.057657242569450665, "10": 0.036107026685641565, "11": 0.02039341108060865, "12": 0.01038839151070413, "13": 0.004772731820373603, "14": 0.001977634563920352 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.95, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "NYY 6 - 3 MIN", "winner": "NYY" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "NYY 6 - 3 MIN", "winner": "NYY" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": true, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0458, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -1.012, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 3, "winner": "NYY", "model_winner": "NYY", "simulation_winner": "NYY", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "NYY", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "NYY", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": true, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 3, "simulation_margin": 3, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 3 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 3 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 3, "final_margin": 3, "winner_quality_edge": 1.3184, "winner": "NYY", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 3, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260915	20260915_OAK@TB	TB	66.7%	92.0%	76.9%	6.5%	4.0-8.0	1-2	hit	Enhanced Prediction (2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.92, "sample_size": 13, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.7692, "empirical_weight": 0.065, "blended_confidence": 0.910198, "published_confidence": 0.667434, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 3, "sample_weight": 0.0409, "home_net_margin": 16.0, "absolute_net_margin": 16.0, "home_average_margin": 5.333, "home_run_delta": 0.1091, "away_run_delta": -0.1091, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 4.0 }, { "home_margin": 8.0 }, { "home_margin": 4.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 2.1125, "recent_quality_edge": 0.36, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 1.4991 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 8, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.015349628446790735 }, { "home_runs": 9, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.015081062952763152 }, { "home_runs": 7, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.014677771789353405 }, { "home_runs": 8, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.014450121590062287 }, { "home_runs": 8, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.014327967562712388 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.012327460979946884, "1": 0.019954319880650634, "2": 0.03034565893848267, "3": 0.04335633505272134, "4": 0.05819757708492016, "5": 0.07339282313794429, "6": 0.0869558154337368, "7": 0.09679212386565862, "8": 0.10122266235201195, "9": 0.09945161529275633, "10": 0.09179991429570258, "11": 0.07961026309296562, "12": 0.0648622771492956, "13": 0.04964913345500181, "14": 0.03570487388395074, "15": 0.02412346469529524, "16": 0.015312574378525914, "17": 0.009131730557723736, "18": 0.005116280127846814, "19": 0.0026930963448624132 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.054837391164861235, "1": 0.08584639900429436, "2": 0.11809397360287294, "3": 0.14275579454540072, "4": 0.15164221222922258, "5": 0.1415490091822071, "6": 0.1161057992066332, "7": 0.0836876450447092, "8": 0.053006501134910164, "9": 0.029502395827887853, "10": 0.014429317486310279, "11": 0.006201470029987878, "12": 0.002342091540702562 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.95, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 8, "score_text": "OAK 4 - 8 TB", "winner": "TB" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 8, "score_text": "OAK 4 - 8 TB", "winner": "TB" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.1287, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.71, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 8, "winner": "TB", "model_winner": "TB", "simulation_winner": "TB", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "TB", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "TB", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 4, "simulation_margin": 4, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 8 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 8 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 4, "final_margin": 4, "winner_quality_edge": 1.4991, "winner": "TB", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 8, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260915	20260915_PHI@WAS	PHI	53.3%	59.5%	56.1%	50.0%	6.0-5.0	3-6	miss	Enhanced Prediction (-2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.595028, "sample_size": 358, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5615, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.578264, "published_confidence": 0.533145, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -11.0, "absolute_net_margin": 11.0, "home_average_margin": -2.2, "home_run_delta": -0.0635, "away_run_delta": 0.0635, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -4.0 }, { "home_margin": 6.0 }, { "home_margin": -5.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": -5.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.3214, "recent_quality_edge": -0.308, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.3167 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.016836152744296957 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.01666062915034021 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.016024425956551066 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.015970101965937258 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.015857364937462818 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.03668713292733573, "1": 0.05821449305833506, "2": 0.08339747885385272, "3": 0.1078646601037165, "4": 0.1259533990356623, "5": 0.1327837899439074, "6": 0.12638184284156814, "7": 0.10859973429247659, "8": 0.08425143312328419, "9": 0.05901063481976546, "10": 0.037315368242145416, "11": 0.021303434842967185, "12": 0.010980345058258486, "13": 0.005109598778178719, "14": 0.0021466540785460998 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.032065436312160266, "1": 0.0510612773093716, "2": 0.07393073082575359, "3": 0.09732784959668528, "4": 0.11650057276437085, "5": 0.12679373552606946, "6": 0.1254718603632134, "7": 0.11289473318880593, "8": 0.09235912921392163, "9": 0.0687012725617082, "10": 0.046465277748655574, "11": 0.028574003743632805, "12": 0.015976897940945978, "13": 0.008122554397366867, "14": 0.0037546685073384747 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.95, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "PHI 6 - 5 WAS", "winner": "PHI" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "PHI 6 - 5 WAS", "winner": "PHI" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0982, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.518, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "PHI", "model_winner": "PHI", "simulation_winner": "PHI", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "PHI", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.3333, "draw_majority_team": "WAS", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.3167, "winner": "PHI", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260915	20260915_SD@COL	SD	58.0%	88.6%	55.8%	50.0%	9.0-5.0	3-9	miss	Enhanced Prediction (3.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.886088, "sample_size": 274, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5584, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.722244, "published_confidence": 0.58, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -1.0, "absolute_net_margin": 1.0, "home_average_margin": -0.2, "home_run_delta": -0.0058, "away_run_delta": 0.0058, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": 5.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -1.5567, "recent_quality_edge": -1.336, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -1.4794 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 8, "probability": 0.013280535650929756 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 8, "probability": 0.01295135393128291 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 9, "probability": 0.012864649707746685 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.012858959749397884 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 9, "probability": 0.012545776461609669 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.03379001666494784, "1": 0.05373605114035119, "2": 0.07749390369359638, "3": 0.10134300463674317, "4": 0.12018339309554638, "5": 0.12924673876430923, "6": 0.12604312824411132, "7": 0.11146620121642851, "8": 0.0893905635517245, "9": 0.06500766954868441, "10": 0.04287083741884207, "11": 0.025637978787803595, "12": 0.013903689110339647, "13": 0.006837553856940186, "14": 0.0030492702696316505 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.01319931113106502, "1": 0.021347778798185182, "2": 0.03238372033137889, "3": 0.04607585517655046, "4": 0.06148832845669057, "5": 0.0769634606871573, "6": 0.09035435842058004, "7": 0.0994915606562973, "8": 0.10275335206057132, "9": 0.09953558465568949, "10": 0.09043433787317037, "11": 0.07706567253728586, "12": 0.06159723254268355, "13": 0.04617788590822198, "14": 0.0324697922900353, "15": 0.02141398985801078, "16": 0.0132461080408836, "17": 0.007685136958081446, "18": 0.0041820338931164505, "19": 0.0021344997243450967 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.95, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 9, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "SD 9 - 5 COL", "winner": "SD" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 9, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "SD 9 - 5 COL", "winner": "SD" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": true, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0049, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -1.546, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 9, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "SD", "model_winner": "SD", "simulation_winner": "SD", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 4, "published_winner": "SD", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.75, "draw_majority_team": "SD", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": true, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 4, "simulation_margin": 4, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 9, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 9, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 4, "final_margin": 4, "winner_quality_edge": 1.4794, "winner": "SD", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 9, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260915	20260915_SEA@LAA	SEA	53.0%	53.1%	56.4%	50.0%	5.0-4.0	1-2	miss	Enhanced Prediction (-1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.5309, "sample_size": 326, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5644, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.54765, "published_confidence": 0.53, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -7.0, "absolute_net_margin": 7.0, "home_average_margin": -1.4, "home_run_delta": -0.0404, "away_run_delta": 0.0404, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -5.0 }, { "home_margin": -4.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.2213, "recent_quality_edge": -0.096, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.1775 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.019481596656994407 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.019247389298189498 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.01906841974655708 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.018839179592166494 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.01784477175315026 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.046416226470651654, "1": 0.07312320019775406, "2": 0.10251349260450897, "3": 0.12789316974301684, "4": 0.141988821048242, "5": 0.14028183432928681, "6": 0.1233358127003161, "7": 0.09649780717990003, "8": 0.06718714239685786, "9": 0.041628942294086216, "10": 0.02295329634507807, "11": 0.011262511099376451, "12": 0.004917743590924918 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.0413606380194975, "1": 0.06540194306055946, "2": 0.09271941408429062, "3": 0.11784938257013189, "4": 0.13429521849525328, "5": 0.13720514413156057, "6": 0.1256773006593761, "7": 0.10320955360446106, "8": 0.0759905452629959, "9": 0.05016211361127283, "10": 0.029687163190786243, "11": 0.015752089755817877, "12": 0.0074934922301665655, "13": 0.003196001323829945 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.95, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "SEA 5 - 4 LAA", "winner": "SEA" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "SEA 5 - 4 LAA", "winner": "SEA" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0979, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.166, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "SEA", "model_winner": "SEA", "simulation_winner": "SEA", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "SEA", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667, "draw_majority_team": "SEA", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.1775, "winner": "SEA", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260915	20260915_SF@STL	STL	55.3%	55.4%	56.2%	50.0%	4.0-5.0	10-3	miss	Variance Applied (0.1761)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.553892, "sample_size": 365, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5616, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.557746, "published_confidence": 0.553117, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 4, "sample_weight": 0.05, "home_net_margin": -2.0, "absolute_net_margin": 2.0, "home_average_margin": -0.5, "home_run_delta": -0.0125, "away_run_delta": 0.0125, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.606, "recent_quality_edge": 0.216, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.4695 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02054093554744645 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.020156921727055195 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01946286512140259 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.019113421179333595 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.019099005881702154 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.04173888815924486, "1": 0.06598124995130486, "2": 0.09346075564254994, "3": 0.11862251415911816, "4": 0.13490686432626062, "5": 0.13747700380829256, "6": 0.12553220461166717, "7": 0.10270919859206604, "8": 0.07529959010759982, "9": 0.04946579242429388, "10": 0.029116985910701207, "11": 0.01535737357930955, "12": 0.007257993393682444, "13": 0.0030735853339088778 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.05261282003255868, "1": 0.08250097497976347, "2": 0.11405946879580656, "3": 0.13902995155456452, "4": 0.14941361084716503, "5": 0.14157178715171123, "6": 0.11826821189193625, "7": 0.08710921702218061, "8": 0.056567235217316394, "9": 0.032386987850228255, "10": 0.01634861351768685, "11": 0.007276056439827097, "12": 0.0028550646992547874 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.95, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "SF 4 - 5 STL", "winner": "STL" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "SF 4 - 5 STL", "winner": "STL" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0571, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.041, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "STL", "model_winner": "STL", "simulation_winner": "STL", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "STL", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "STL", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.4695, "winner": "STL", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }

Starting-pitcher component quality

H	{ "mae": 1.9, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": -0.1 }
R	{ "mae": 1.8667, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.9333 }
ER	{ "mae": 1.7667, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.9667 }
BB	{ "mae": 1.4, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.5333 }
SO	{ "mae": 2.2333, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.9 }
HR	{ "mae": 0.8333, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": -0.1 }
IP_outs	{ "mae_outs": 3.1333, "mae_innings": 1.0444, "bias_outs": 1.4667 }

IP error is measured in outs. No single-outing ERA is used; ER and workload are compared directly.

Date

Game

Side

Pred starter

Actual starter

Match

Pred IP

Actual IP

Δ outs

Pred ER

Actual ER

Δ ER

H P/A

BB P/A

SO P/A

All context

20260915

20260915_ATL@CHC

away

Martín Pérez

True

5.2

6.0

-1

7/5

1/4

4/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.075949367088608,
      "WHIP": 1.2455696202531648,
      "IP": 131.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 28,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.097,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.067,
      "last_start_IP": 7.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.2317,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0197,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9566,
      "walk_factor": 1.02,
      "homer_factor": 0.9713,
      "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 17.9,
      "bb_percent": 10.2,
      "woba": 0.297,
      "xwoba": 0.328,
      "barrel_percent": 5.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 36.7,
      "whiff_percent": 21.5
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 41,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.2,
      "season_IP": 131.2,
      "season_ERA": 3.076,
      "season_WHIP": 1.246,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 28.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8485,
        "prior_weight": 0.1515
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "527048",
      "report_date": "20260915",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 28,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 25.1,
            "ER": 10.0,
            "R": 13.0,
            "H": 29.0,
            "BB": 13.0,
            "SO": 18.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 117.0,
            "Pitches": 436.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.6,
            "H": 5.8,
            "BB": 2.6,
            "SO": 3.6,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 23.4,
            "Pitches": 87.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.5526,
            "WHIP": 1.6579,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.39474,
            "H_per_IP": 1.14474,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.51316,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.71053,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07895
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 50.1,
            "ER": 13.0,
            "R": 16.0,
            "H": 43.0,
            "BB": 24.0,
            "SO": 36.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 214.0,
            "Pitches": 793.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 1.3,
            "R": 1.6,
            "H": 4.3,
            "BB": 2.4,
            "SO": 3.6,
            "HR": 0.3,
            "BF": 21.4,
            "Pitches": 79.3
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.3245,
            "WHIP": 1.3311,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.25828,
            "H_per_IP": 0.8543,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.47682,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.71523,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0596
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 28,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 131.2,
            "ER": 45.0,
            "R": 49.0,
            "H": 108.0,
            "BB": 56.0,
            "SO": 98.0,
            "HR": 13.0,
            "BF": 547.0,
            "Pitches": 2075.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 1.6071,
            "R": 1.75,
            "H": 3.8571,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 3.5,
            "HR": 0.4643,
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    "recent_form_analysis": {
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      "pitching": {
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        "games_fielded": 10,
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-10T00:00:00"
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "player_name": "Mart\u00edn P\u00e9rez",
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      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
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          "weights": {},
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        {
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          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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        {
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          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
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      "total_change": {
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        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
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          "has_material_change": true,
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
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        "run_differential_per_game": 0.7417,
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      "opponent": {
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        "runs_scored": 806.0,
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      "edges": {
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        "offense_edge": 0.0269,
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        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0207,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
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      "player_factors": {
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "527048",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "527048",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
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          "metrics": {
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          "league_medians": {
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          "components": {
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "527048",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 85,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 85,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
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              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
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              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
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            "pitch_mix": [
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                "pitches": 85,
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                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
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            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 85.1945,
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
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          "quality_score": -0.2317,
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          "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_name": "Martin Perez",
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            "espn_total_ranked": 861,
            "metrics": {
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              "ip_rank": "83",
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              "h_rank": "109",
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              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 2.84,
              "war_rank": null
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            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
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            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0197,
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          "predicted_BB": {
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          "predicted_HR": {
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          "predicted_SO": {
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    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
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      "predicted_H": 7,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 26,
      "Pitches": 108,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was +3."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260915_ATL@CHC.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260915

20260915_ATL@CHC

home

Kevin Gausman

True

5.1

5.2

-1

6/5

1/0

6/6

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "ERA": 4.599198396793587,
      "WHIP": 1.2865731462925851,
      "IP": 166.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 30,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.544,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.467,
      "last_start_IP": 4.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.1277,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9891,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0263,
      "walk_factor": 0.946,
      "homer_factor": 1.0108,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 24.2,
      "bb_percent": 6.5,
      "woba": 0.317,
      "xwoba": 0.309,
      "barrel_percent": 7.4,
      "hard_hit_percent": 39.3,
      "whiff_percent": 27.4
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 195,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 30.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8571,
        "prior_weight": 0.1429
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "592332",
      "report_date": "20260915",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 30,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 27.1,
            "ER": 15.0,
            "R": 16.0,
            "H": 29.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 33.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 118.0,
            "Pitches": 479.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.2,
            "H": 5.8,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 6.6,
            "HR": 1.4,
            "BF": 23.6,
            "Pitches": 95.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.939,
            "WHIP": 1.3537,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.54878,
            "H_per_IP": 1.06098,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.29268,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.20732,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.2561
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 54.0,
            "ER": 31.0,
            "R": 33.0,
            "H": 63.0,
            "BB": 14.0,
            "SO": 55.0,
            "HR": 9.0,
            "BF": 236.0,
            "Pitches": 950.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 3.1,
            "R": 3.3,
            "H": 6.3,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 5.5,
            "HR": 0.9,
            "BF": 23.6,
            "Pitches": 95.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.1667,
            "WHIP": 1.4259,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.57407,
            "H_per_IP": 1.16667,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.25926,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.01852,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.16667
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 30,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 166.1,
            "ER": 85.0,
            "R": 92.0,
            "H": 168.0,
            "BB": 46.0,
            "SO": 171.0,
            "HR": 24.0,
            "BF": 706.0,
            "Pitches": 2808.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.8333,
            "R": 3.0667,
            "H": 5.6,
            "BB": 1.5333,
            "SO": 5.7,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 23.5333,
            "Pitches": 93.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.5992,
            "WHIP": 1.2866,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.51102,
            "H_per_IP": 1.01002,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.27655,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.02806,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.14429
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.933,
        "predicted_H": 5.778,
        "predicted_BB": 1.571,
        "predicted_SO": 5.831,
        "predicted_HR": 1.049,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.8963,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3634
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4104,
      "form_weight": 0.5896,
      "form_reliability": 0.8571,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 30.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8571,
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      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.1,
          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.933,
          "final": 2.9605,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 5.778,
          "final": 5.8691,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.571,
          "final": 1.3367,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 5.831,
          "final": 5.9004,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.049,
          "final": 1.4393,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.8963,
          "final": 4.8963,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3634,
          "final": 1.3634,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 54.0,
        "ER": 31,
        "H": 63,
        "BB": 14,
        "SO": 55,
        "HR": 9,
        "ERA": 5.166666666666666,
        "WHIP": 1.4259259259259258,
        "K9": 9.166666666666666,
        "HR9": 1.4999999999999998,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 4,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-09T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.082263356792447,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 6.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 6.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 30.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8571,
          "prior_weight": 0.1429
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "592332",
      "player_name": "Kevin Gausman",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CHC",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.1,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
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          {
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          },
          {
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          {
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        ],
        "summary": {
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          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "CHC",
        "games": 151,
        "wins": 84,
        "losses": 67,
        "win_pct": 0.5563,
        "runs_scored": 806.0,
        "runs_allowed": 664.0,
        "run_differential": 142.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.9404,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.3377,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3974,
        "offense_index": 1.1892,
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        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
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          "avg_runs_scored": 5.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4,
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        "available": true,
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      "opponent": {
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        "wins": 88,
        "losses": 63,
        "win_pct": 0.5828,
        "runs_scored": 696.0,
        "runs_allowed": 584.0,
        "run_differential": 112.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.7417,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.6093,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8675,
        "offense_index": 1.0269,
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        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
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          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7,
          "run_differential": -9.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1263
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0368,
        "offense_edge": 0.1892,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0269,
        "defense_strength": 0.0207,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1605,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
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      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.001,
        "run_prevention": 1.0004,
        "strikeout": 0.999
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "592332",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "592332",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.6,
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            "avg_best_speed": 77.04,
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          "league_medians": {
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            "woba": 0.316,
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            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
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            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
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          "components": {
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            "xwoba_edge": 0.0857,
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            "whiff_edge": 0.3429,
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            "pitch_design_score": -0.0423
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "592332",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 95,
            "primary_pitch": {
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              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
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              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
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            "pitch_mix": [
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            ],
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              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.3022,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.1277,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9891,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0263,
          "walk_factor": 0.946,
          "homer_factor": 1.0108,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.008,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "592332",
            "espn_id": 32667,
            "player_name": "Kevin Gausman",
            "team": "CHC",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 195,
            "espn_total_ranked": 861,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 195,
              "gp_value": 30.0,
              "gp_rank": "225",
              "gs_value": 30.0,
              "gs_rank": "4",
              "qs_value": 14.0,
              "qs_rank": "25",
              "era_value": 4.5991,
              "era_rank": 43.0,
              "w_value": 9.0,
              "w_rank": "44",
              "l_value": 12.0,
              "l_rank": "9",
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": "251",
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": "354",
              "ip_value": 166.1,
              "ip_rank": "16",
              "h_value": 168.0,
              "h_rank": "7",
              "er_value": 85.0,
              "er_rank": "7",
              "hr_value": 24.0,
              "hr_rank": "15",
              "bb_value": 46.0,
              "bb_rank": "59",
              "k_value": 171.0,
              "k_rank": "20",
              "k_per_9_value": 9.252505,
              "k_per_9_rank": 33.0,
              "whip_value": 1.2865,
              "whip_rank": 38.0,
              "war_value": 0.9,
              "war_rank": 46.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9891,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 0.9891,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.946,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0108,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0263,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 101,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260915_ATL@CHC.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260915

20260915_BAL@NYM

away

Shane Baz

True

6.0

4.0

-6

-1

2/7

3/2

5/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.047337278106509,
      "WHIP": 1.331360946745562,
      "IP": 169.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 29,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.828,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.933,
      "last_start_IP": 5.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.101,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0086,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.976,
      "walk_factor": 0.976,
      "homer_factor": 1.0149,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 20.8,
      "bb_percent": 8.0,
      "woba": 0.315,
      "xwoba": 0.313,
      "barrel_percent": 6.7,
      "hard_hit_percent": 41.6,
      "whiff_percent": 22.0
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 108,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 29.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8529,
        "prior_weight": 0.1471
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "669358",
      "report_date": "20260915",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 29,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 29.2,
            "ER": 14.0,
            "R": 14.0,
            "H": 24.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 28.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 123.0,
            "Pitches": 479.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 2.8,
            "R": 2.8,
            "H": 4.8,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 5.6,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 24.6,
            "Pitches": 95.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.2472,
            "WHIP": 1.1798,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.47191,
            "H_per_IP": 0.80899,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.37079,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.94382,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13483
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 57.1,
            "ER": 24.0,
            "R": 28.0,
            "H": 54.0,
            "BB": 16.0,
            "SO": 51.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 239.0,
            "Pitches": 903.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.8,
            "H": 5.4,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 5.1,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 23.9,
            "Pitches": 90.3
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.7674,
            "WHIP": 1.2209,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.4186,
            "H_per_IP": 0.94186,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.27907,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.88953,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08721
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 29,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 169.0,
            "ER": 76.0,
            "R": 86.0,
            "H": 167.0,
            "BB": 58.0,
            "SO": 150.0,
            "HR": 14.0,
            "BF": 721.0,
            "Pitches": 2751.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.6207,
            "R": 2.9655,
            "H": 5.7586,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 5.1724,
            "HR": 0.4828,
            "BF": 24.8621,
            "Pitches": 94.8621
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.0473,
            "WHIP": 1.3314,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.4497,
            "H_per_IP": 0.98817,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.3432,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.88757,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08284
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.673,
        "predicted_H": 5.282,
        "predicted_BB": 1.982,
        "predicted_SO": 5.361,
        "predicted_HR": 0.664,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.1173,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2431
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4121,
      "form_weight": 0.5879,
      "form_reliability": 0.8529,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 29.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8529,
        "prior_weight": 0.1471
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 6.0,
          "final": 6.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.673,
          "final": 3.2199,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 5.282,
          "final": 3.9293,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 1.982,
          "final": 2.4016,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.361,
          "final": 5.2122,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.664,
          "final": 0.8025,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.1173,
          "final": 4.1173,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2431,
          "final": 1.2431,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 57.1,
        "ER": 24,
        "H": 54,
        "BB": 16,
        "SO": 51,
        "HR": 5,
        "ERA": 3.7674418604651163,
        "WHIP": 1.2209302325581395,
        "K9": 8.005813953488373,
        "HR9": 0.7848837209302325,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 5,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-09T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9197256737605779,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 29.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8529,
          "prior_weight": 0.1471
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "669358",
      "player_name": "Shane Baz",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "BAL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_R": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 0,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
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          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "BAL",
        "games": 151,
        "wins": 73,
        "losses": 78,
        "win_pct": 0.4834,
        "runs_scored": 674.0,
        "runs_allowed": 708.0,
        "run_differential": -34.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2252,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4636,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6887,
        "offense_index": 0.9938,
        "defense_index": 0.9579,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7,
          "run_differential": -13.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0767
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "NYM",
        "games": 150,
        "wins": 69,
        "losses": 81,
        "win_pct": 0.46,
        "runs_scored": 644.0,
        "runs_allowed": 679.0,
        "run_differential": -35.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2333,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.2933,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5267,
        "offense_index": 0.9559,
        "defense_index": 0.9922,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.2,
          "run_differential": 15.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0276
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0491,
        "offense_edge": -0.0062,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0441,
        "defense_strength": -0.0421,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0078,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9985,
        "run_prevention": 0.9996,
        "strikeout": 1.0021
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "669358",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "669358",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 668.0,
            "k_percent": 20.8,
            "bb_percent": 8.0,
            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.313,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 35.5,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.7,
            "hard_hit_percent": 41.6,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.9821,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.393,
            "whiff_percent": 22.0,
            "swing_percent": 48.2
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 132.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6536,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9166,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.1199,
            "command_and_miss": -0.1671,
            "regression_edge": 0.0571,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.0286,
            "barrel_edge": 0.0889,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.5286,
            "whiff_edge": -0.4286,
            "bb_edge": 0.3,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0486
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "669358",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 88,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 88,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.71620637222767,
              "release_spin_rate": 2406.6446445810634,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 88,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.71620637222767,
                "release_spin_rate": 2406.6446445810634,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.7162,
              "release_spin_rate": 2406.6446,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0486,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.347,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.101,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0086,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.976,
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          "homer_factor": 1.0149,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.002,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "669358",
            "espn_id": 39639,
            "player_name": "Shane Baz",
            "team": "BAL",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 108,
            "espn_total_ranked": 861,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 108,
              "gp_value": 29.0,
              "gp_rank": "244",
              "gs_value": 29.0,
              "gs_rank": "14",
              "qs_value": 12.0,
              "qs_rank": "37",
              "era_value": 4.0473,
              "era_rank": 36.0,
              "w_value": 6.0,
              "w_rank": "109",
              "l_value": 15.0,
              "l_rank": "1",
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": "251",
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": "354",
              "ip_value": 169.0,
              "ip_rank": "12",
              "h_value": 167.0,
              "h_rank": "8",
              "er_value": 76.0,
              "er_rank": "20",
              "hr_value": 14.0,
              "hr_rank": "109",
              "bb_value": 58.0,
              "bb_rank": "19",
              "k_value": 150.0,
              "k_rank": "31",
              "k_per_9_value": 7.9881654,
              "k_per_9_rank": 69.0,
              "whip_value": 1.3313,
              "whip_rank": 39.0,
              "war_value": 1.68,
              "war_rank": 38.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0086,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0086,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.976,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0149,
            "adjusted": 1
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 0.976,
            "adjusted": 6
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 106,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -6 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 5",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +5."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260915_BAL@NYM.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260915

20260915_BAL@NYM

home

Sean Manaea

True

5.2

5.1

-1

4/4

1/0

5/6

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
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      "WHIP": 1.3424999999999998,
      "IP": 133.1,
      "games_started": null,
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      "role_avg_IP": 5.646,
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      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
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      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0329,
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      "k_percent": 21.6,
      "bb_percent": 7.0,
      "woba": 0.35,
      "xwoba": 0.34,
      "barrel_percent": 11.0,
      "hard_hit_percent": 41.4,
      "whiff_percent": 22.0
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 584,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
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      "effective_weights": {
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        "last_10": 0.35,
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      "shrinkage": {
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      },
      "role": "pitcher",
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      "player_id": "640455",
      "report_date": "20260915",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 30,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
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          "totals": {
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            "ER": 23.0,
            "R": 23.0,
            "H": 35.0,
            "BB": 6.0,
            "SO": 20.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
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            "Pitches": 428.0
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          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 4.6,
            "R": 4.6,
            "H": 7.0,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 4.0,
            "HR": 1.4,
            "BF": 25.6,
            "Pitches": 85.6
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          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.4302,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.80233,
            "H_per_IP": 1.22093,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.2093,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.69767,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.24419
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 58.1,
            "ER": 33.0,
            "R": 33.0,
            "H": 63.0,
            "BB": 17.0,
            "SO": 52.0,
            "HR": 11.0,
            "BF": 253.0,
            "Pitches": 891.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 3.3,
            "R": 3.3,
            "H": 6.3,
            "BB": 1.7,
            "SO": 5.2,
            "HR": 1.1,
            "BF": 25.3,
            "Pitches": 89.1
          },
          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.3714,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.56571,
            "H_per_IP": 1.08,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.29143,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.89143,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.18857
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 30,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 133.1,
            "ER": 71.0,
            "R": 78.0,
            "H": 138.0,
            "BB": 41.0,
            "SO": 126.0,
            "HR": 21.0,
            "BF": 582.0,
            "Pitches": 2227.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 2.3667,
            "R": 2.6,
            "H": 4.6,
            "BB": 1.3667,
            "SO": 4.2,
            "HR": 0.7,
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            "Pitches": 74.2333
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.7925,
            "WHIP": 1.3425,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.5325,
            "H_per_IP": 1.035,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.3075,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.945,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1575
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      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 3.561,
        "predicted_H": 6.158,
        "predicted_BB": 1.519,
        "predicted_SO": 4.612,
        "predicted_HR": 1.101,
        "predicted_ERA": 5.787,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3862
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4104,
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      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
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          "final": 2.51,
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 6.158,
          "final": 5.2724,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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          "final": 1.306,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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          "final": 4.7712,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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          "final": 5.787,
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3862,
          "final": 1.3862,
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
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        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
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      "pitching": {
        "IP": 58.1,
        "ER": 33,
        "H": 63,
        "BB": 17,
        "SO": 52,
        "HR": 11,
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        "WHIP": 1.3714285714285714,
        "K9": 8.022857142857143,
        "HR9": 1.697142857142857,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 4,
        "dominant_form": false,
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      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-08T00:00:00"
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    "recent_form_boost": 1.0724366372157275,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8571,
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    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "640455",
      "player_name": "Sean Manaea",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "NYM",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
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            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
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              "projection_effect": "worse",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
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          {
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          {
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        ],
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          "dominant_effect": "worse"
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
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      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
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        "games": 150,
        "wins": 69,
        "losses": 81,
        "win_pct": 0.46,
        "runs_scored": 644.0,
        "runs_allowed": 679.0,
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        "recent": {
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      "opponent": {
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        "games": 151,
        "wins": 73,
        "losses": 78,
        "win_pct": 0.4834,
        "runs_scored": 674.0,
        "runs_allowed": 708.0,
        "run_differential": -34.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2252,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4636,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6887,
        "offense_index": 0.9938,
        "defense_index": 0.9579,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7,
          "run_differential": -13.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0767
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0491,
        "offense_edge": -0.0441,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0062,
        "defense_strength": -0.0078,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0421,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.002,
        "run_prevention": 0.9973,
        "strikeout": 1.002
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "640455",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "640455",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 558.0,
            "k_percent": 21.6,
            "bb_percent": 7.0,
            "woba": 0.35,
            "xwoba": 0.34,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 35.7,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 11.0,
            "hard_hit_percent": 41.4,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6536,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.6215,
            "whiff_percent": 22.0,
            "swing_percent": 50.2
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 132.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6536,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9166,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.6756,
            "command_and_miss": -0.0657,
            "regression_edge": 0.2857,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.8,
            "barrel_edge": -0.8667,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.5,
            "whiff_edge": -0.4286,
            "bb_edge": 0.55,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.2524
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "640455",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 91,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 91,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 85.3419083556381,
              "release_spin_rate": 2107.9845133297035,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 91,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 85.3419083556381,
                "release_spin_rate": 2107.9845133297035,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 85.3419,
              "release_spin_rate": 2107.9845,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.2524,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.8028,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.387,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0329,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9806,
          "walk_factor": 0.956,
          "homer_factor": 1.1133,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.01,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "640455",
            "espn_id": 33244,
            "player_name": "Sean Manaea",
            "team": "NYM",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 584,
            "espn_total_ranked": 861,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 584,
              "gp_value": 30.0,
              "gp_rank": "225",
              "gs_value": 16.0,
              "gs_rank": "132",
              "qs_value": 6.0,
              "qs_rank": "93",
              "era_value": 4.7925,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 5.0,
              "w_rank": "150",
              "l_value": 7.0,
              "l_rank": "86",
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": "251",
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": "354",
              "ip_value": 133.1,
              "ip_rank": "80",
              "h_value": 138.0,
              "h_rank": "43",
              "er_value": 71.0,
              "er_rank": "27",
              "hr_value": 21.0,
              "hr_rank": "32",
              "bb_value": 41.0,
              "bb_rank": "83",
              "k_value": 126.0,
              "k_rank": "63",
              "k_per_9_value": 8.505,
              "k_per_9_rank": 21.0,
              "whip_value": 1.3425,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": -0.1,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0329,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 1.0329,
            "adjusted": 7
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.956,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.1133,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9806,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 99,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260915_BAL@NYM.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260915

20260915_BOS@TEX

away

Patrick Sandoval

True

5.0

2.2

-7

-2

6/4

0/2

6/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.581818181818182,
      "WHIP": 1.7636363636363637,
      "IP": 55.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 11,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.0,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.0,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.2533,
      "sample_weight": 0.904,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0215,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0072,
      "walk_factor": 1.0271,
      "homer_factor": 1.0077,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 22.5,
      "bb_percent": 10.7,
      "woba": 0.372,
      "xwoba": 0.349,
      "barrel_percent": 6.5,
      "hard_hit_percent": 35.7,
      "whiff_percent": 25.9
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 658,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 11.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.6875,
        "prior_weight": 0.3125
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "663776",
      "report_date": "20260915",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 11,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 25.0,
            "ER": 17.0,
            "R": 18.0,
            "H": 32.0,
            "BB": 14.0,
            "SO": 28.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 117.0,
            "Pitches": 457.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 3.4,
            "R": 3.6,
            "H": 6.4,
            "BB": 2.8,
            "SO": 5.6,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 23.4,
            "Pitches": 91.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.12,
            "WHIP": 1.84,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.68,
            "H_per_IP": 1.28,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.56,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.12,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 50.2,
            "ER": 27.0,
            "R": 31.0,
            "H": 65.0,
            "BB": 26.0,
            "SO": 52.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 234.0,
            "Pitches": 882.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.7,
            "R": 3.1,
            "H": 6.5,
            "BB": 2.6,
            "SO": 5.2,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 23.4,
            "Pitches": 88.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.7961,
            "WHIP": 1.7961,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.53289,
            "H_per_IP": 1.28289,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.51316,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.02632,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11842
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 11,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 55.0,
            "ER": 28.0,
            "R": 32.0,
            "H": 70.0,
            "BB": 27.0,
            "SO": 57.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 253.0,
            "Pitches": 947.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.5455,
            "R": 2.9091,
            "H": 6.3636,
            "BB": 2.4545,
            "SO": 5.1818,
            "HR": 0.5455,
            "BF": 23.0,
            "Pitches": 86.0909
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.5818,
            "WHIP": 1.7636,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.50909,
            "H_per_IP": 1.27273,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.49091,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.03636,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10909
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.836,
        "predicted_H": 5.924,
        "predicted_BB": 2.406,
        "predicted_SO": 5.148,
        "predicted_HR": 0.633,
        "predicted_ERA": 5.1055,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.666
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.482,
      "form_weight": 0.518,
      "form_reliability": 0.6875,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 11.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.6875,
        "prior_weight": 0.3125
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 2.836,
          "final": 4.3611,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 5.924,
          "final": 4.9966,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 2.406,
          "final": 1.2462,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 5.148,
          "final": 5.5587,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.633,
          "final": 0.3279,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 5.1055,
          "final": 5.1055,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.666,
          "final": 1.666,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 50.2,
        "ER": 27,
        "H": 65,
        "BB": 26,
        "SO": 52,
        "HR": 6,
        "ERA": 4.796052631578948,
        "WHIP": 1.7960526315789473,
        "K9": 9.236842105263158,
        "HR9": 1.0657894736842106,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 1,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": true
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 2,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-08T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.049822445486404,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 6.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 6.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 11.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.6875,
          "prior_weight": 0.3125
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_quality_floor",
        "description": "Weak starter floor restored expected damage from recent form instead of assigning it to zero-inning bullpen rows.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 6,
          "predicted_H": 6,
          "predicted_BB": 0,
          "predicted_SO": 6,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "663776",
      "player_name": "Patrick Sandoval",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "BOS",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 6.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_quality_floor",
          "description": "Weak starter floor restored expected damage from recent form instead of assigning it to zero-inning bullpen rows.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 6.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 2.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.5,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 2.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.5,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 6.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 2.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.5,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
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          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": {
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            "before": 4.0,
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            "delta": 2.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.5,
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            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "BOS",
        "games": 150,
        "wins": 82,
        "losses": 68,
        "win_pct": 0.5467,
        "runs_scored": 663.0,
        "runs_allowed": 575.0,
        "run_differential": 88.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.5867,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.42,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8333,
        "offense_index": 0.9848,
        "defense_index": 1.1709,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.5,
          "run_differential": 11.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1816
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "TEX",
        "games": 150,
        "wins": 74,
        "losses": 76,
        "win_pct": 0.4933,
        "runs_scored": 624.0,
        "runs_allowed": 668.0,
        "run_differential": -44.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2933,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.16,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4533,
        "offense_index": 0.9268,
        "defense_index": 1.0079,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.8,
          "run_differential": 4.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0416
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.2232,
        "offense_edge": -0.0152,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0732,
        "defense_strength": 0.1709,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0079,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.017,
        "run_prevention": 0.96,
        "strikeout": 1.0126
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "663776",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "663776",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 226.0,
            "k_percent": 22.5,
            "bb_percent": 10.7,
            "woba": 0.372,
            "xwoba": 0.349,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.5,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.5,
            "hard_hit_percent": 35.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.1506,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.6029,
            "whiff_percent": 25.9,
            "swing_percent": 46.1
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 132.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6536,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9166,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.6048,
            "command_and_miss": 0.0021,
            "regression_edge": 0.6571,
            "xwoba_edge": -1.0571,
            "barrel_edge": 0.1333,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.3143,
            "whiff_edge": 0.1286,
            "bb_edge": -0.375,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0972
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "663776",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 88,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 88,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.11227164797407,
              "release_spin_rate": 2171.9009532384985,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 88,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.11227164797407,
                "release_spin_rate": 2171.9009532384985,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.1123,
              "release_spin_rate": 2171.901,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0972,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.6946,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.2533,
          "sample_weight": 0.904,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0215,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0072,
          "walk_factor": 1.0271,
          "homer_factor": 1.0077,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.023,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "663776",
            "espn_id": 40975,
            "player_name": "Patrick Sandoval",
            "team": "BOS",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 658,
            "espn_total_ranked": 861,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 658,
              "gp_value": 11.0,
              "gp_rank": "517",
              "gs_value": 11.0,
              "gs_rank": "163",
              "qs_value": 1.0,
              "qs_rank": "178",
              "era_value": 4.5818,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 1.0,
              "w_rank": "414",
              "l_value": 5.0,
              "l_rank": "137",
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": "251",
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": "354",
              "ip_value": 55.0,
              "ip_rank": "277",
              "h_value": 70.0,
              "h_rank": "167",
              "er_value": 28.0,
              "er_rank": "212",
              "hr_value": 6.0,
              "hr_rank": "273",
              "bb_value": 27.0,
              "bb_rank": "197",
              "k_value": 57.0,
              "k_rank": "250",
              "k_per_9_value": 9.327272,
              "k_per_9_rank": 24.0,
              "whip_value": 1.7636,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": -0.2,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0194,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0194,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0245,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.007,
            "adjusted": 1
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0065,
            "adjusted": 5
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 6,
      "predicted_ER": 6,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 91,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -7 outs from the projected workload."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260915_BOS@TEX.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260915

20260915_BOS@TEX

home

Jacob deGrom

True

5.2

5.0

-2

-1

3/3

2/1

8/8

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "IP": 149.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 28,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.333,
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      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
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      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9635,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.1011,
      "walk_factor": 0.942,
      "homer_factor": 1.0358,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 30.9,
      "bb_percent": 6.3,
      "woba": 0.275,
      "xwoba": 0.285,
      "barrel_percent": 8.2,
      "hard_hit_percent": 44.8,
      "whiff_percent": 33.8
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 55,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
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        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
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        "prior_weight": 0.1515
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "594798",
      "report_date": "20260915",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 28,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
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          "totals": {
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            "ER": 10.0,
            "R": 10.0,
            "H": 13.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 39.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 103.0,
            "Pitches": 448.0
          },
          "per_game": {
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            "H": 2.6,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 7.8,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 20.6,
            "Pitches": 89.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.1395,
            "WHIP": 0.6977,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.34884,
            "H_per_IP": 0.45349,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.24419,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.36047,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.06977
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 48.2,
            "ER": 24.0,
            "R": 24.0,
            "H": 43.0,
            "BB": 16.0,
            "SO": 64.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 200.0,
            "Pitches": 867.0
          },
          "per_game": {
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            "SO": 6.4,
            "HR": 0.3,
            "BF": 20.0,
            "Pitches": 86.7
          },
          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.2123,
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            "H_per_IP": 0.88356,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.32877,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.31507,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.06164
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 28,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 149.1,
            "ER": 63.0,
            "R": 63.0,
            "H": 123.0,
            "BB": 38.0,
            "SO": 186.0,
            "HR": 19.0,
            "BF": 601.0,
            "Pitches": 2472.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.25,
            "R": 2.25,
            "H": 4.3929,
            "BB": 1.3571,
            "SO": 6.6429,
            "HR": 0.6786,
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            "Pitches": 88.2857
          },
          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.0781,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.42188,
            "H_per_IP": 0.82366,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.25446,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.24554,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12723
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.317,
        "predicted_H": 3.914,
        "predicted_BB": 1.573,
        "predicted_SO": 6.84,
        "predicted_HR": 0.481,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.8535,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.014
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
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      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
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      "adaptive_parameters": {
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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      "applied_metrics": {
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          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.1,
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
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          "form": 2.317,
          "final": 3.0138,
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
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          "final": 3.9496,
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        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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          "form": 1.573,
          "final": 1.7498,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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          "form": 6.84,
          "final": 7.3203,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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          "form": 0.481,
          "final": 1.1099,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
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          "form": 3.8535,
          "final": 3.8535,
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
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          "form": 1.014,
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        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
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        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 48.2,
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        "H": 43,
        "BB": 16,
        "SO": 64,
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        "K9": 11.835616438356166,
        "HR9": 0.5547945205479452,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 4,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
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        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-10T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9949884963155318,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 8.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 28.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8485,
          "prior_weight": 0.1515
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      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.2,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 4,
          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 8,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "594798",
      "player_name": "Jacob deGrom",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "TEX",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.25,
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              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.5,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 3,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.25,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.25,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.2,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.25,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.25,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.25,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.5,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 8.0,
            "after": 8.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 4,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
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          "better_metrics": 3,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.25,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "TEX",
        "games": 150,
        "wins": 74,
        "losses": 76,
        "win_pct": 0.4933,
        "runs_scored": 624.0,
        "runs_allowed": 668.0,
        "run_differential": -44.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2933,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.16,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4533,
        "offense_index": 0.9268,
        "defense_index": 1.0079,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.8,
          "run_differential": 4.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0416
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "BOS",
        "games": 150,
        "wins": 82,
        "losses": 68,
        "win_pct": 0.5467,
        "runs_scored": 663.0,
        "runs_allowed": 575.0,
        "run_differential": 88.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.5867,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.42,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8333,
        "offense_index": 0.9848,
        "defense_index": 1.1709,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.5,
          "run_differential": 11.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1816
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.2232,
        "offense_edge": -0.0732,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0152,
        "defense_strength": 0.0079,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1709,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9919,
        "run_prevention": 1.0079,
        "strikeout": 0.9945
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "594798",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "594798",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 578.0,
            "k_percent": 30.9,
            "bb_percent": 6.3,
            "woba": 0.275,
            "xwoba": 0.285,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 37.4,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 44.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 80.3855,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.6614,
            "whiff_percent": 33.8,
            "swing_percent": 51.9
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 132.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6536,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9166,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.2542,
            "command_and_miss": 1.1571,
            "regression_edge": -0.2857,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.7714,
            "barrel_edge": -0.2444,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.9857,
            "whiff_edge": 1.2571,
            "bb_edge": 0.725,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.1811
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "594798",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 81,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 81,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 93.08234532476492,
              "release_spin_rate": 2431.3043107890794,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 81,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 93.08234532476492,
                "release_spin_rate": 2431.3043107890794,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 93.0823,
              "release_spin_rate": 2431.3043,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.1811,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 1.2934,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.4291,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9635,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.1011,
          "walk_factor": 0.942,
          "homer_factor": 1.0358,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.01,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "594798",
            "espn_id": 32796,
            "player_name": "Jacob deGrom",
            "team": "TEX",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 55,
            "espn_total_ranked": 861,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 55,
              "gp_value": 28.0,
              "gp_rank": "278",
              "gs_value": 28.0,
              "gs_rank": "33",
              "qs_value": 12.0,
              "qs_rank": "37",
              "era_value": 3.7968,
              "era_rank": 28.0,
              "w_value": 10.0,
              "w_rank": "30",
              "l_value": 9.0,
              "l_rank": "32",
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": "251",
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": "354",
              "ip_value": 149.1,
              "ip_rank": "48",
              "h_value": 123.0,
              "h_rank": "76",
              "er_value": 63.0,
              "er_rank": "57",
              "hr_value": 19.0,
              "hr_rank": "52",
              "bb_value": 38.0,
              "bb_rank": "104",
              "k_value": 186.0,
              "k_rank": "12",
              "k_per_9_value": 11.209822,
              "k_per_9_rank": 6.0,
              "whip_value": 1.0781,
              "whip_rank": 12.0,
              "war_value": 2.46,
              "war_rank": 29.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9635,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9635,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.942,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0358,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 1.1011,
            "adjusted": 8
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 8,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 100,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260915_BOS@TEX.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260915

20260915_CHW@CLE

away

Chris Murphy

True

4.2

0.2

-12

4/2

0/1

5/0

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.228915662650603,
      "WHIP": 1.4096385542168675,
      "IP": 27.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 27,
      "role_avg_IP": 1.0,
      "recent_avg_IP": 1.0,
      "last_start_IP": 0.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.2112,
      "sample_weight": 0.476,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.982,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0242,
      "walk_factor": 1.0143,
      "homer_factor": 0.978,
      "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 24.3,
      "bb_percent": 10.7,
      "woba": 0.317,
      "xwoba": 0.285,
      "barrel_percent": 6.9,
      "hard_hit_percent": 34.5,
      "whiff_percent": 31.6
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 351,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 5.603,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.5284,
        "prior_weight": 0.4716
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "669684",
      "report_date": "20260915",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 27,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 4.0,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 5.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 22.0,
            "Pitches": 86.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.0,
            "ER": 0.4,
            "R": 0.6,
            "H": 0.8,
            "BB": 0.4,
            "SO": 1.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 4.4,
            "Pitches": 17.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.8571,
            "WHIP": 1.2857,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.42857,
            "H_per_IP": 0.85714,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.42857,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.07143,
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
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          },
          "per_game": {
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          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.3448,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.51724,
            "H_per_IP": 0.93103,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.41379,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.13793,
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        },
        "season": {
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          "per_game": {
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      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
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      "adaptive_parameters": {
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.5284,
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        "predicted_ER": {
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        "predicted_SO": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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          "form": 4.3801,
          "final": 4.3801,
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        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3404,
          "final": 1.3404,
          "source": "form_only"
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    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
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        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
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        "2B": 0,
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        "AVG": 0,
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        "hot_streak": false,
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      "pitching": {
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        "K9": 10.241379310344827,
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        "games_pitched": 10,
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      "fielding": {
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        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-07-30T00:00:00"
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    "recent_form_boost": 1.0072248081905049,
    "stat_evolution": [
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          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
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        "stats": {
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "team": "CHW",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
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          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
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          "changed_metrics": [],
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          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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            {
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            {
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            {
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
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          {
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          {
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          {
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          {
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        ],
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          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
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        "games": 150,
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        "losses": 73,
        "win_pct": 0.5133,
        "runs_scored": 702.0,
        "runs_allowed": 664.0,
        "run_differential": 38.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.2533,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.68,
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        "recent": {
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          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1,
          "run_differential": -1.0
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        "available": true,
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      "opponent": {
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        "games": 151,
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        "win_pct": 0.5033,
        "runs_scored": 618.0,
        "runs_allowed": 629.0,
        "run_differential": -11.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.0728,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0927,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1656,
        "offense_index": 0.9112,
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          "avg_runs_scored": 4.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9,
          "run_differential": -1.0
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        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0061
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      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0134,
        "offense_edge": 0.042,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0888,
        "defense_strength": 0.0146,
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      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0045,
        "run_prevention": 0.9837,
        "strikeout": 1.0075
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "669684",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "669684",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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            "xwoba": 0.285,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 26.4,
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            "avg_best_speed": 76.375,
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          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 132.0,
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            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
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            "avg_best_speed": 77.6536,
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            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
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          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.4544,
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            "bb_edge": -0.375,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0868
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "669684",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 18,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 18,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.2982970476781,
              "release_spin_rate": 2384.676474817831,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
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            "pitch_mix": [
              {
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                "pitches": 18,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.2982970476781,
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                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.2983,
              "release_spin_rate": 2384.6765,
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              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
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            "components": {
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              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
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              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.2112,
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          "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_name": "Chris Murphy",
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            "espn_rank": 351,
            "espn_total_ranked": 861,
            "metrics": {
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              "gp_value": 31.0,
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              "l_rank": "577",
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              "ip_rank": "433",
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              "hr_rank": "530",
              "bb_value": 15.0,
              "bb_rank": "387",
              "k_value": 34.0,
              "k_rank": "415",
              "k_per_9_value": 9.5625,
              "k_per_9_rank": 25.0,
              "whip_value": 1.3437,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.19,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 0.9914,
            "adjusted": 7
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 0.9914,
            "adjusted": 7
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0068,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9895,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 1.0115,
            "adjusted": 7
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.2,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 18,
      "Pitches": 79,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +2."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least three innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -12 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was +2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260915_CHW@CLE.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260915

20260915_CHW@CLE

home

Foster Griffin

True

5.1

4.0

-4

-2

6/5

2/2

5/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.6516393442622954,
      "WHIP": 1.180327868852459,
      "IP": 162.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 29,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.609,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.867,
      "last_start_IP": 2.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.1041,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0088,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9869,
      "walk_factor": 0.944,
      "homer_factor": 1.0313,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 21.7,
      "bb_percent": 6.4,
      "woba": 0.309,
      "xwoba": 0.32,
      "barrel_percent": 8.7,
      "hard_hit_percent": 37.2,
      "whiff_percent": 23.0
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 34,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 29.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8529,
        "prior_weight": 0.1471
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "656492",
      "report_date": "20260915",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 29,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 24.1,
            "ER": 16.0,
            "R": 16.0,
            "H": 29.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 21.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 108.0,
            "Pitches": 442.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 3.2,
            "R": 3.2,
            "H": 5.8,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 4.2,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 21.6,
            "Pitches": 88.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.9178,
            "WHIP": 1.6027,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.65753,
            "H_per_IP": 1.19178,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.41096,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.86301,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0411
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 52.1,
            "ER": 32.0,
            "R": 34.0,
            "H": 63.0,
            "BB": 17.0,
            "SO": 37.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 229.0,
            "Pitches": 896.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 3.2,
            "R": 3.4,
            "H": 6.3,
            "BB": 1.7,
            "SO": 3.7,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 22.9,
            "Pitches": 89.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.5032,
            "WHIP": 1.5287,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.61146,
            "H_per_IP": 1.20382,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.32484,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.70701,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11465
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        },
        "season": {
          "games": 29,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 162.2,
            "ER": 66.0,
            "R": 73.0,
            "H": 149.0,
            "BB": 43.0,
            "SO": 146.0,
            "HR": 23.0,
            "BF": 674.0,
            "Pitches": 2667.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.2759,
            "R": 2.5172,
            "H": 5.1379,
            "BB": 1.4828,
            "SO": 5.0345,
            "HR": 0.7931,
            "BF": 23.2414,
            "Pitches": 91.9655
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.6516,
            "WHIP": 1.1803,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.40574,
            "H_per_IP": 0.91598,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.26434,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.89754,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.14139
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 3.046,
        "predicted_H": 5.876,
        "predicted_BB": 1.867,
        "predicted_SO": 4.387,
        "predicted_HR": 0.504,
        "predicted_ERA": 5.2092,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.4715
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4121,
      "form_weight": 0.5879,
      "form_reliability": 0.8529,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8529,
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      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.1,
          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.1,
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 3.046,
          "final": 3.4392,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 5.876,
          "final": 5.9271,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.867,
          "final": 1.9218,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.387,
          "final": 4.6396,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 0.504,
          "final": 1.1206,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 5.2092,
          "final": 5.2092,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.4715,
          "final": 1.4715,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 52.1,
        "ER": 32,
        "H": 63,
        "BB": 17,
        "SO": 37,
        "HR": 6,
        "ERA": 5.503184713375796,
        "WHIP": 1.5286624203821655,
        "K9": 6.3630573248407645,
        "HR9": 1.0318471337579618,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 4,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-09T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.12269004940863,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 6.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 29.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8529,
          "prior_weight": 0.1471
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "656492",
      "player_name": "Foster Griffin",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CLE",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.3333,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.1,
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            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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              "projection_effect": "worse",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
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          {
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          {
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          {
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          {
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        "summary": {
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          "dominant_effect": "worse"
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
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      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
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        "games": 151,
        "wins": 76,
        "losses": 75,
        "win_pct": 0.5033,
        "runs_scored": 618.0,
        "runs_allowed": 629.0,
        "run_differential": -11.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.0728,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0927,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1656,
        "offense_index": 0.9112,
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        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
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          "avg_runs_scored": 4.8,
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      "opponent": {
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        "runs_allowed": 664.0,
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        "run_differential_per_game": 0.2533,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.68,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4267,
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        "current_streak": "W1",
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          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1,
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        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0073
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0134,
        "offense_edge": -0.0888,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.042,
        "defense_strength": 0.0782,
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        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
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      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0001,
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      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "656492",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "656492",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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          "league_medians": {
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          "components": {
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          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
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            "pitcher_id": "656492",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
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            "primary_pitch": {
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                "pitches": 92,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 86.0102663049186,
                "release_spin_rate": 2150.8134343301904,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 86.0103,
              "release_spin_rate": 2150.8134,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.215,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.5354,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.1041,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0088,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9869,
          "walk_factor": 0.944,
          "homer_factor": 1.0313,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.011,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "656492",
            "espn_id": 33773,
            "player_name": "Foster Griffin",
            "team": "CLE",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 34,
            "espn_total_ranked": 861,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 34,
              "gp_value": 29.0,
              "gp_rank": "244",
              "gs_value": 29.0,
              "gs_rank": "14",
              "qs_value": 14.0,
              "qs_rank": "25",
              "era_value": 3.6516,
              "era_rank": 23.0,
              "w_value": 15.0,
              "w_rank": "3",
              "l_value": 5.0,
              "l_rank": "137",
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": "251",
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": "354",
              "ip_value": 162.2,
              "ip_rank": "25",
              "h_value": 149.0,
              "h_rank": "24",
              "er_value": 66.0,
              "er_rank": "49",
              "hr_value": 23.0,
              "hr_rank": "22",
              "bb_value": 43.0,
              "bb_rank": "70",
              "k_value": 146.0,
              "k_rank": "36",
              "k_per_9_value": 8.077869,
              "k_per_9_rank": 38.0,
              "whip_value": 1.1803,
              "whip_rank": 25.0,
              "war_value": 2.99,
              "war_rank": 24.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0088,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0088,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.944,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.0313,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9869,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 25,
      "Pitches": 105,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was -2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260915_CHW@CLE.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260915

20260915_DET@TOR

away

Drew Anderson

True

5.0

-3

2/2

0/3

5/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.804123711340206,
      "WHIP": 1.309278350515464,
      "IP": 97.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 47,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.519,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.133,
      "last_start_IP": 5.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.1151,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9902,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0337,
      "walk_factor": 1.014,
      "homer_factor": 1.0245,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 25.3,
      "bb_percent": 9.9,
      "woba": 0.323,
      "xwoba": 0.305,
      "barrel_percent": 8.4,
      "hard_hit_percent": 39.2,
      "whiff_percent": 27.6
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 183,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 19.643,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7971,
        "prior_weight": 0.2029
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "623454",
      "report_date": "20260915",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 47,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 25.2,
            "ER": 10.0,
            "R": 11.0,
            "H": 21.0,
            "BB": 13.0,
            "SO": 23.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 108.0,
            "Pitches": 414.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.2,
            "H": 4.2,
            "BB": 2.6,
            "SO": 4.6,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 21.6,
            "Pitches": 82.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.5065,
            "WHIP": 1.3247,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.38961,
            "H_per_IP": 0.81818,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.50649,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.8961,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15584
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 37.2,
            "ER": 13.0,
            "R": 14.0,
            "H": 31.0,
            "BB": 17.0,
            "SO": 31.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 155.0,
            "Pitches": 600.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.2,
            "ER": 1.3,
            "R": 1.4,
            "H": 3.1,
            "BB": 1.7,
            "SO": 3.1,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 15.5,
            "Pitches": 60.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.1062,
            "WHIP": 1.2743,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.34513,
            "H_per_IP": 0.82301,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.45133,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.82301,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13274
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 47,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 97.0,
            "ER": 41.0,
            "R": 45.0,
            "H": 87.0,
            "BB": 40.0,
            "SO": 105.0,
            "HR": 14.0,
            "BF": 414.0,
            "Pitches": 1611.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 2.0,
            "ER": 0.8723,
            "R": 0.9574,
            "H": 1.8511,
            "BB": 0.8511,
            "SO": 2.234,
            "HR": 0.2979,
            "BF": 8.8085,
            "Pitches": 34.2766
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.8041,
            "WHIP": 1.3093,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.42268,
            "H_per_IP": 0.89691,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.41237,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.08247,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.14433
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.0,
        "predicted_ER": 1.687,
        "predicted_H": 3.586,
        "predicted_BB": 1.864,
        "predicted_SO": 3.794,
        "predicted_HR": 0.605,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.658,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3135
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4357,
      "form_weight": 0.5643,
      "form_reliability": 0.7971,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 19.643,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7971,
        "prior_weight": 0.2029
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.0,
          "final": 4.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.687,
          "final": 1.8234,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 3.586,
          "final": 2.8949,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.864,
          "final": 1.0518,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 3.794,
          "final": 4.3195,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.605,
          "final": 0.7771,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.658,
          "final": 3.658,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3135,
          "final": 1.3135,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 37.2,
        "ER": 13,
        "H": 31,
        "BB": 17,
        "SO": 31,
        "HR": 5,
        "ERA": 3.1061946902654864,
        "WHIP": 1.2743362831858405,
        "K9": 7.407079646017698,
        "HR9": 1.1946902654867255,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-08T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8466705183788121,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 19.643,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7971,
          "prior_weight": 0.2029
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "623454",
      "player_name": "Drew Anderson",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "DET",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 0.0,
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            "percent_delta": null,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 2.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 0,
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          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": null,
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          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "DET",
        "games": 150,
        "wins": 71,
        "losses": 79,
        "win_pct": 0.4733,
        "runs_scored": 672.0,
        "runs_allowed": 601.0,
        "run_differential": 71.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.4733,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.48,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0067,
        "offense_index": 0.9975,
        "defense_index": 1.121,
        "current_streak": "W5",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.4,
          "run_differential": 25.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1053
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "TOR",
        "games": 151,
        "wins": 75,
        "losses": 76,
        "win_pct": 0.4967,
        "runs_scored": 613.0,
        "runs_allowed": 645.0,
        "run_differential": -32.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2119,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0596,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2715,
        "offense_index": 0.9039,
        "defense_index": 1.0515,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8,
          "run_differential": 9.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0288
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.1341,
        "offense_edge": -0.0025,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0961,
        "defense_strength": 0.121,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0515,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0128,
        "run_prevention": 0.9658,
        "strikeout": 1.0117
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "623454",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "623454",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 371.0,
            "k_percent": 25.3,
            "bb_percent": 9.9,
            "woba": 0.323,
            "xwoba": 0.305,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 29.7,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.4,
            "hard_hit_percent": 39.2,
            "avg_best_speed": 80.136,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.1466,
            "whiff_percent": 27.6,
            "swing_percent": 49.2
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 132.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6536,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9166,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.0318,
            "command_and_miss": 0.3071,
            "regression_edge": 0.5143,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.2,
            "barrel_edge": -0.2889,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.1857,
            "whiff_edge": 0.3714,
            "bb_edge": -0.175,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0205
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "623454",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 79,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 79,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.21554450990143,
              "release_spin_rate": 2144.3428913561374,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 79,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.21554450990143,
                "release_spin_rate": 2144.3428913561374,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.2155,
              "release_spin_rate": 2144.3429,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0205,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.1467,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.1151,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9902,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0337,
          "walk_factor": 1.014,
          "homer_factor": 1.0245,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.018,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "623454",
            "espn_id": 28617,
            "player_name": "Drew Anderson",
            "team": "MIL",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 183,
            "espn_total_ranked": 861,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 183,
              "gp_value": 47.0,
              "gp_rank": "129",
              "gs_value": 9.0,
              "gs_rank": "181",
              "qs_value": 0.0,
              "qs_rank": "210",
              "era_value": 3.8041,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 4.0,
              "w_rank": "192",
              "l_value": 6.0,
              "l_rank": "114",
              "sv_value": 2.0,
              "sv_rank": "93",
              "hld_value": 6.0,
              "hld_rank": "152",
              "ip_value": 97.0,
              "ip_rank": "134",
              "h_value": 87.0,
              "h_rank": "135",
              "er_value": 41.0,
              "er_rank": "150",
              "hr_value": 14.0,
              "hr_rank": "109",
              "bb_value": 40.0,
              "bb_rank": "88",
              "k_value": 105.0,
              "k_rank": "93",
              "k_per_9_value": 9.742269,
              "k_per_9_rank": 18.0,
              "whip_value": 1.3092,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.96,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9902,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9902,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.014,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0245,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0337,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 17,
      "Pitches": 69,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was +3."
    },
    {
      "code": "MISSED_SHUTDOWN",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Model missed a shutdown outing",
      "detail": "The pitcher allowed zero earned runs after a projection of 3 ER."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260915_DET@TOR.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260915

20260915_DET@TOR

home

Braydon Fisher

True

5.0

1.1

-11

-3

4/0

3/2

5/1

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.2201834862385317,
      "WHIP": 1.2247706422018347,
      "IP": 72.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 72,
      "role_avg_IP": 1.111,
      "recent_avg_IP": 1.133,
      "last_start_IP": 1.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0177,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9985,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0314,
      "walk_factor": 1.074,
      "homer_factor": 1.0506,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 24.4,
      "bb_percent": 12.9,
      "woba": 0.291,
      "xwoba": 0.309,
      "barrel_percent": 9.9,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.5,
      "whiff_percent": 28.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 155,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.2,
      "season_IP": 72.2,
      "season_ERA": 3.22,
      "season_WHIP": 1.225,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 14.715,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7464,
        "prior_weight": 0.2536
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "680755",
      "report_date": "20260915",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 72,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 3.2,
            "ER": 1.0,
            "R": 1.0,
            "H": 2.0,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 5.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 14.0,
            "Pitches": 73.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 0.2,
            "ER": 0.2,
            "R": 0.2,
            "H": 0.4,
            "BB": 0.4,
            "SO": 1.0,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 2.8,
            "Pitches": 14.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.4545,
            "WHIP": 1.0909,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.27273,
            "H_per_IP": 0.54545,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.54545,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.36364,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.27273
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 7.2,
            "ER": 1.0,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 6.0,
            "BB": 4.0,
            "SO": 12.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 32.0,
            "Pitches": 158.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 0.2,
            "ER": 0.1,
            "R": 0.3,
            "H": 0.6,
            "BB": 0.4,
            "SO": 1.2,
            "HR": 0.1,
            "BF": 3.2,
            "Pitches": 15.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.1739,
            "WHIP": 1.3043,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.13043,
            "H_per_IP": 0.78261,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.52174,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.56522,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13043
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 72,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 72.2,
            "ER": 26.0,
            "R": 33.0,
            "H": 51.0,
            "BB": 38.0,
            "SO": 72.0,
            "HR": 8.0,
            "BF": 295.0,
            "Pitches": 1189.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.0,
            "ER": 0.3611,
            "R": 0.4583,
            "H": 0.7083,
            "BB": 0.5278,
            "SO": 1.0,
            "HR": 0.1111,
            "BF": 4.0972,
            "Pitches": 16.5139
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.2202,
            "WHIP": 1.2248,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.3578,
            "H_per_IP": 0.70183,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.52294,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.99083,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11009
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 2.0,
        "predicted_ER": 0.611,
        "predicted_H": 1.469,
        "predicted_BB": 0.977,
        "predicted_SO": 2.487,
        "predicted_HR": 0.356,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.7707,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2325
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4571,
      "form_weight": 0.5429,
      "form_reliability": 0.7464,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 14.715,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7464,
        "prior_weight": 0.2536
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 2.0,
          "final": 3.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 0.611,
          "final": 1.7031,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 1.469,
          "final": 2.626,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 0.977,
          "final": 1.9018,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.487,
          "final": 3.1787,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.356,
          "final": 0.1933,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.7707,
          "final": 2.7707,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2325,
          "final": 1.2325,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 7.2,
        "ER": 1,
        "H": 6,
        "BB": 4,
        "SO": 12,
        "HR": 1,
        "ERA": 1.173913043478261,
        "WHIP": 1.3043478260869565,
        "K9": 14.08695652173913,
        "HR9": 1.173913043478261,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-13T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9065834176541974,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 14.715,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7464,
          "prior_weight": 0.2536
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 4,
          "predicted_BB": 3,
          "predicted_SO": 4,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 4,
          "predicted_BB": 3,
          "predicted_SO": 5,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "680755",
      "player_name": "Braydon Fisher",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "TOR",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": -0.6667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1176,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
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            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": -0.6667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1176,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.3333,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.25,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 2,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.25,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.3333,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 4,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.3333,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": -0.6667,
            "percent_delta": -0.1177,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.25,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 3,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 2,
          "better_metrics": 2,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.25,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.3333,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "TOR",
        "games": 151,
        "wins": 75,
        "losses": 76,
        "win_pct": 0.4967,
        "runs_scored": 613.0,
        "runs_allowed": 645.0,
        "run_differential": -32.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2119,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0596,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2715,
        "offense_index": 0.9039,
        "defense_index": 1.0515,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8,
          "run_differential": 9.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0288
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "DET",
        "games": 150,
        "wins": 71,
        "losses": 79,
        "win_pct": 0.4733,
        "runs_scored": 672.0,
        "runs_allowed": 601.0,
        "run_differential": 71.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.4733,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.48,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0067,
        "offense_index": 0.9975,
        "defense_index": 1.121,
        "current_streak": "W5",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.4,
          "run_differential": 25.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1053
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.1341,
        "offense_edge": -0.0961,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0025,
        "defense_strength": 0.0515,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.121,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9963,
        "run_prevention": 1.0012,
        "strikeout": 0.9962
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "680755",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "680755",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 285.0,
            "k_percent": 24.4,
            "bb_percent": 12.9,
            "woba": 0.291,
            "xwoba": 0.309,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 31.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 9.9,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.5,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.4471,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.5751,
            "whiff_percent": 28.1,
            "swing_percent": 44.0
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 132.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6536,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9166,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.0853,
            "command_and_miss": 0.1243,
            "regression_edge": -0.5143,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.0857,
            "barrel_edge": -0.6222,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.0857,
            "whiff_edge": 0.4429,
            "bb_edge": -0.925,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.1372
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "680755",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 18,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 18,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 87.39893660448675,
              "release_spin_rate": 2331.21366252146,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 18,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 87.39893660448675,
                "release_spin_rate": 2331.21366252146,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.3989,
              "release_spin_rate": 2331.2137,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1372,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.98,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0177,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9985,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0314,
          "walk_factor": 1.074,
          "homer_factor": 1.0506,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.018,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "680755",
            "espn_id": 41318,
            "player_name": "Braydon Fisher",
            "team": "TOR",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 155,
            "espn_total_ranked": 861,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 155,
              "gp_value": 72.0,
              "gp_rank": "5",
              "gs_value": 9.0,
              "gs_rank": "181",
              "qs_value": 0.0,
              "qs_rank": "210",
              "era_value": 3.2201,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 3.0,
              "w_rank": "248",
              "l_value": 4.0,
              "l_rank": "190",
              "sv_value": 1.0,
              "sv_rank": "140",
              "hld_value": 13.0,
              "hld_rank": "64",
              "ip_value": 72.2,
              "ip_rank": "181",
              "h_value": 51.0,
              "h_rank": "243",
              "er_value": 26.0,
              "er_rank": "236",
              "hr_value": 8.0,
              "hr_rank": "208",
              "bb_value": 38.0,
              "bb_rank": "104",
              "k_value": 72.0,
              "k_rank": "183",
              "k_per_9_value": 8.917432,
              "k_per_9_rank": 27.0,
              "whip_value": 1.2247,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 1.18,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9985,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9985,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.074,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.0506,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0314,
            "adjusted": 3
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 99,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least three innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -11 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was -4."
    },
    {
      "code": "MISSED_SHUTDOWN",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Model missed a shutdown outing",
      "detail": "The pitcher allowed zero earned runs after a projection of 3 ER."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260915_DET@TOR.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260915

20260915_KC@HOU

away

Michael Wacha

True

6.1

6.0

-1

5/4

5/1

9/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.2518248175182483,
      "WHIP": 1.1058394160583942,
      "IP": 182.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 29,
      "role_avg_IP": 6.299,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.4,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0493,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9958,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9714,
      "walk_factor": 0.946,
      "homer_factor": 0.9746,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 20.0,
      "bb_percent": 6.5,
      "woba": 0.298,
      "xwoba": 0.304,
      "barrel_percent": 6.7,
      "hard_hit_percent": 35.9,
      "whiff_percent": 22.0
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 14,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 29.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8529,
        "prior_weight": 0.1471
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "608379",
      "report_date": "20260915",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 29,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 32.0,
            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 8.0,
            "H": 22.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 30.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 124.0,
            "Pitches": 467.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.1,
            "ER": 1.6,
            "R": 1.6,
            "H": 4.4,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 6.0,
            "HR": 1.2,
            "BF": 24.8,
            "Pitches": 93.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.25,
            "WHIP": 0.9062,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.25,
            "H_per_IP": 0.6875,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.21875,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.9375,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1875
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 63.1,
            "ER": 16.0,
            "R": 18.0,
            "H": 46.0,
            "BB": 14.0,
            "SO": 51.0,
            "HR": 10.0,
            "BF": 249.0,
            "Pitches": 948.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.1,
            "ER": 1.6,
            "R": 1.8,
            "H": 4.6,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 5.1,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 24.9,
            "Pitches": 94.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.2737,
            "WHIP": 0.9474,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.25263,
            "H_per_IP": 0.72632,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.22105,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.80526,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15789
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 29,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 182.2,
            "ER": 66.0,
            "R": 70.0,
            "H": 154.0,
            "BB": 48.0,
            "SO": 147.0,
            "HR": 24.0,
            "BF": 736.0,
            "Pitches": 2726.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.1,
            "ER": 2.2759,
            "R": 2.4138,
            "H": 5.3103,
            "BB": 1.6552,
            "SO": 5.069,
            "HR": 0.8276,
            "BF": 25.3793,
            "Pitches": 94.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.2518,
            "WHIP": 1.1058,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.36131,
            "H_per_IP": 0.84307,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.26277,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.80474,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13139
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.1,
        "predicted_ER": 1.949,
        "predicted_H": 4.865,
        "predicted_BB": 1.582,
        "predicted_SO": 5.546,
        "predicted_HR": 1.033,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.7692,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.0179
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4121,
      "form_weight": 0.5879,
      "form_reliability": 0.8529,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
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        "prior_size": 5.0,
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      "applied_metrics": {
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          "model": 6.1,
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        "predicted_ER": {
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        "predicted_BB": {
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        "predicted_SO": {
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        "predicted_HR": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
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        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
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      "pitching": {
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        "games_pitched": 10,
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        "dominant_form": false,
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      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
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        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-08T00:00:00"
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    "recent_form_boost": 0.7448388928548251,
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        "stats": {
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "player_id": "608379",
      "player_name": "Michael Wacha",
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      "team": "KC",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
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          "changed_metrics": [],
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          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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              "material": true
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          ],
          "summary": {
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            "biggest_deboost": null
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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          {
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          {
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
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        ],
        "summary": {
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          "biggest_deboost": {
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            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
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        "games": 150,
        "wins": 66,
        "losses": 84,
        "win_pct": 0.44,
        "runs_scored": 634.0,
        "runs_allowed": 728.0,
        "run_differential": -94.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.6267,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.2267,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.8533,
        "offense_index": 0.9417,
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        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0,
          "run_differential": -5.0
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        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1628
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      "opponent": {
        "team": "HOU",
        "games": 150,
        "wins": 75,
        "losses": 75,
        "win_pct": 0.5,
        "runs_scored": 669.0,
        "runs_allowed": 722.0,
        "run_differential": -53.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3533,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.46,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.8133,
        "offense_index": 0.9937,
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        "current_streak": "L3",
        "recent": {
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          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7,
          "run_differential": -11.0
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        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0783
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      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0845,
        "offense_edge": -0.0583,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0063,
        "defense_strength": -0.0752,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0675,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
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      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9946,
        "run_prevention": 1.0107,
        "strikeout": 0.998
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "608379",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "608379",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 684.0,
            "k_percent": 20.0,
            "bb_percent": 6.5,
            "woba": 0.298,
            "xwoba": 0.304,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.2,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.7,
            "hard_hit_percent": 35.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.175,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.4906,
            "whiff_percent": 22.0,
            "swing_percent": 48.7
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          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 132.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
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            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6536,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9166,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
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          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.2082,
            "command_and_miss": -0.1436,
            "regression_edge": -0.1714,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.2286,
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            "whiff_edge": -0.4286,
            "bb_edge": 0.675,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.16
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "608379",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 94,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 94,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 86.99175752354641,
              "release_spin_rate": 1982.216780285776,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
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                "pitches": 94,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 86.99175752354641,
                "release_spin_rate": 1982.216780285776,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 86.9918,
              "release_spin_rate": 1982.2168,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
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              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
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            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.16,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.1428,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0493,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9958,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9714,
          "walk_factor": 0.946,
          "homer_factor": 0.9746,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.006,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_id": "608379",
            "espn_id": 32640,
            "player_name": "Michael Wacha",
            "team": "KC",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 14,
            "espn_total_ranked": 861,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 14,
              "gp_value": 29.0,
              "gp_rank": "244",
              "gs_value": 29.0,
              "gs_rank": "14",
              "qs_value": 20.0,
              "qs_rank": "2",
              "era_value": 3.2518,
              "era_rank": 17.0,
              "w_value": 9.0,
              "w_rank": "44",
              "l_value": 8.0,
              "l_rank": "64",
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": "251",
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": "354",
              "ip_value": 182.2,
              "ip_rank": "3",
              "h_value": 154.0,
              "h_rank": "15",
              "er_value": 66.0,
              "er_rank": "49",
              "hr_value": 24.0,
              "hr_rank": "15",
              "bb_value": 48.0,
              "bb_rank": "51",
              "k_value": 147.0,
              "k_rank": "35",
              "k_per_9_value": 7.2427006,
              "k_per_9_rank": 315.0,
              "whip_value": 1.1058,
              "whip_rank": 16.0,
              "war_value": 4.11,
              "war_rank": 12.0
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            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9958,
            "adjusted": 2
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          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9958,
            "adjusted": 5
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          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.946,
            "adjusted": 1
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          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9746,
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 0.9714,
            "adjusted": 6
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    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.1,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 5,
      "predicted_SO": 9,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 29,
      "Pitches": 127,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
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  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +2."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -4."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was +3."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: True; actual quality start: False."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260915_KC@HOU.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260915

20260915_KC@HOU

home

Hunter Brown

True

5.2

5.0

-2

3/2

1/3

4/10

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.5217391304347827,
      "WHIP": 1.3043478260869565,
      "IP": 92.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 17,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.412,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.667,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.4086,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9653,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0269,
      "walk_factor": 1.054,
      "homer_factor": 0.9587,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 25.9,
      "bb_percent": 11.9,
      "woba": 0.303,
      "xwoba": 0.285,
      "barrel_percent": 6.4,
      "hard_hit_percent": 36.9,
      "whiff_percent": 25.8
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 99,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 17.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7727,
        "prior_weight": 0.2273
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "686613",
      "report_date": "20260915",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 17,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 28.1,
            "ER": 10.0,
            "R": 11.0,
            "H": 28.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 33.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 117.0,
            "Pitches": 484.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.2,
            "H": 5.6,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 6.6,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 23.4,
            "Pitches": 96.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.1765,
            "WHIP": 1.3765,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.35294,
            "H_per_IP": 0.98824,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.38824,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.16471,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10588
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 56.2,
            "ER": 22.0,
            "R": 23.0,
            "H": 47.0,
            "BB": 24.0,
            "SO": 61.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 233.0,
            "Pitches": 952.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.2,
            "R": 2.3,
            "H": 4.7,
            "BB": 2.4,
            "SO": 6.1,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 23.3,
            "Pitches": 95.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.4941,
            "WHIP": 1.2529,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.38824,
            "H_per_IP": 0.82941,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.42353,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.07647,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10588
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 17,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 92.0,
            "ER": 36.0,
            "R": 39.0,
            "H": 74.0,
            "BB": 46.0,
            "SO": 100.0,
            "HR": 11.0,
            "BF": 386.0,
            "Pitches": 1592.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.1176,
            "R": 2.2941,
            "H": 4.3529,
            "BB": 2.7059,
            "SO": 5.8824,
            "HR": 0.6471,
            "BF": 22.7059,
            "Pitches": 93.6471
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.5217,
            "WHIP": 1.3043,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.3913,
            "H_per_IP": 0.80435,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.5,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.08696,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11957
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.266,
        "predicted_H": 5.134,
        "predicted_BB": 2.313,
        "predicted_SO": 6.052,
        "predicted_HR": 0.659,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.6324,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3261
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.446,
      "form_weight": 0.554,
      "form_reliability": 0.7727,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 17.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7727,
        "prior_weight": 0.2273
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.266,
          "final": 1.7013,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 5.134,
          "final": 4.1822,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.313,
          "final": 1.7274,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 6.052,
          "final": 5.1367,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.659,
          "final": 0.8111,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.6324,
          "final": 3.6324,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3261,
          "final": 1.3261,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 56.2,
        "ER": 22,
        "H": 47,
        "BB": 24,
        "SO": 61,
        "HR": 6,
        "ERA": 3.4941176470588236,
        "WHIP": 1.2529411764705882,
        "K9": 9.688235294117648,
        "HR9": 0.9529411764705883,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 4,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-09T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8897769733501812,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 17.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7727,
          "prior_weight": 0.2273
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "686613",
      "player_name": "Hunter Brown",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "HOU",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_R": 1.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
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              "projection_effect": "worse",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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          {
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          },
          {
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
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            "delta": 0.0,
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        ],
        "summary": {
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            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "HOU",
        "games": 150,
        "wins": 75,
        "losses": 75,
        "win_pct": 0.5,
        "runs_scored": 669.0,
        "runs_allowed": 722.0,
        "run_differential": -53.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3533,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.46,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.8133,
        "offense_index": 0.9937,
        "defense_index": 0.9325,
        "current_streak": "L3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7,
          "run_differential": -11.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0783
      },
      "opponent": {
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        "games": 150,
        "wins": 66,
        "losses": 84,
        "win_pct": 0.44,
        "runs_scored": 634.0,
        "runs_allowed": 728.0,
        "run_differential": -94.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.6267,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.2267,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.8533,
        "offense_index": 0.9417,
        "defense_index": 0.9248,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
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          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0,
          "run_differential": -5.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1628
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0845,
        "offense_edge": -0.0063,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0583,
        "defense_strength": -0.0675,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0752,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0037,
        "run_prevention": 0.9932,
        "strikeout": 1.0072
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "686613",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "686613",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 365.0,
            "k_percent": 25.9,
            "bb_percent": 11.9,
            "woba": 0.303,
            "xwoba": 0.285,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 27.5,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.4,
            "hard_hit_percent": 36.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 74.1882,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.1755,
            "whiff_percent": 25.8,
            "swing_percent": 42.1
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 132.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6536,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9166,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.5457,
            "command_and_miss": 0.1557,
            "regression_edge": 0.5143,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.7714,
            "barrel_edge": 0.1556,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.1429,
            "whiff_edge": 0.1143,
            "bb_edge": -0.675,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.1387
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "686613",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 96,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 96,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 92.32550813368526,
              "release_spin_rate": 2201.6439490261128,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 96,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 92.32550813368526,
                "release_spin_rate": 2201.6439490261128,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 92.3255,
              "release_spin_rate": 2201.6439,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
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              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.1387,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.9907,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.4086,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9653,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0269,
          "walk_factor": 1.054,
          "homer_factor": 0.9587,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.018,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_id": "686613",
            "espn_id": 4717803,
            "player_name": "Hunter Brown",
            "team": "HOU",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 99,
            "espn_total_ranked": 861,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 99,
              "gp_value": 17.0,
              "gp_rank": "438",
              "gs_value": 17.0,
              "gs_rank": "126",
              "qs_value": 7.0,
              "qs_rank": "82",
              "era_value": 3.5217,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 5.0,
              "w_rank": "150",
              "l_value": 3.0,
              "l_rank": "245",
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": "251",
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": "354",
              "ip_value": 92.0,
              "ip_rank": "139",
              "h_value": 74.0,
              "h_rank": "157",
              "er_value": 36.0,
              "er_rank": "165",
              "hr_value": 11.0,
              "hr_rank": "150",
              "bb_value": 46.0,
              "bb_rank": "59",
              "k_value": 100.0,
              "k_rank": "105",
              "k_per_9_value": 9.782609,
              "k_per_9_rank": 20.0,
              "whip_value": 1.3043,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 1.74,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9653,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9653,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.054,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9587,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0269,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 92,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260915_KC@HOU.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260915

20260915_LAD@CIN

away

Yoshinobu Yamamoto

True

7.0

-2

3/1

1/2

8/7

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.616279069767442,
      "WHIP": 0.8837209302325582,
      "IP": 172.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 26,
      "role_avg_IP": 6.615,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.533,
      "last_start_IP": 7.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.5855,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9502,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0389,
      "walk_factor": 0.934,
      "homer_factor": 0.9518,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 26.0,
      "bb_percent": 5.9,
      "woba": 0.246,
      "xwoba": 0.27,
      "barrel_percent": 6.8,
      "hard_hit_percent": 36.7,
      "whiff_percent": 27.8
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 8,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 26.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8387,
        "prior_weight": 0.1613
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "808967",
      "report_date": "20260915",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 26,
      "reference_playing_time": 7.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 32.2,
            "ER": 9.0,
            "R": 9.0,
            "H": 21.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 44.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 125.0,
            "Pitches": 492.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.2,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 1.8,
            "H": 4.2,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 8.8,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 25.0,
            "Pitches": 98.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.4796,
            "WHIP": 0.8571,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.27551,
            "H_per_IP": 0.64286,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.21429,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.34694,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12245
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 67.1,
            "ER": 21.0,
            "R": 21.0,
            "H": 42.0,
            "BB": 18.0,
            "SO": 71.0,
            "HR": 8.0,
            "BF": 260.0,
            "Pitches": 1000.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.2,
            "ER": 2.1,
            "R": 2.1,
            "H": 4.2,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 7.1,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 26.0,
            "Pitches": 100.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.8069,
            "WHIP": 0.8911,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.31188,
            "H_per_IP": 0.62376,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.26733,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.05446,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11881
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 26,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 172.0,
            "ER": 50.0,
            "R": 51.0,
            "H": 113.0,
            "BB": 39.0,
            "SO": 171.0,
            "HR": 19.0,
            "BF": 658.0,
            "Pitches": 2555.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.2,
            "ER": 1.9231,
            "R": 1.9615,
            "H": 4.3462,
            "BB": 1.5,
            "SO": 6.5769,
            "HR": 0.7308,
            "BF": 25.3077,
            "Pitches": 98.2692
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.6163,
            "WHIP": 0.8837,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.2907,
            "H_per_IP": 0.65698,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.22674,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.99419,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11047
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.192,
        "predicted_H": 4.66,
        "predicted_BB": 1.732,
        "predicted_SO": 7.636,
        "predicted_HR": 0.829,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.9358,
        "predicted_WHIP": 0.9512
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4181,
      "form_weight": 0.5819,
      "form_reliability": 0.8387,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_size": 26.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8387,
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      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 6.2,
          "final": 6.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.192,
          "final": 2.1117,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 4.66,
          "final": 3.9659,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.732,
          "final": 1.4259,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 7.636,
          "final": 6.5338,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.829,
          "final": 0.4824,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.9358,
          "final": 2.9358,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 0.9512,
          "final": 0.9512,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 67.1,
        "ER": 21,
        "H": 42,
        "BB": 18,
        "SO": 71,
        "HR": 8,
        "ERA": 2.806930693069307,
        "WHIP": 0.8910891089108911,
        "K9": 9.490099009900991,
        "HR9": 1.0693069306930694,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 7,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-09T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8034221393373682,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 7.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 26.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8387,
          "prior_weight": 0.1613
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 7.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 3,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 8,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "808967",
      "player_name": "Yoshinobu Yamamoto",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "LAD",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 7.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 7.0,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "percent_delta": null,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 3.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.6,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_deboost": null
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          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
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          {
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        ],
        "summary": {
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          },
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
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        "games": 150,
        "wins": 91,
        "losses": 59,
        "win_pct": 0.6067,
        "runs_scored": 745.0,
        "runs_allowed": 572.0,
        "run_differential": 173.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.1533,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.9667,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8133,
        "offense_index": 1.1054,
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        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
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        },
        "available": true,
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      "opponent": {
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        "runs_scored": 625.0,
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        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.1533,
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      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.556,
        "offense_edge": 0.1054,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0727,
        "defense_strength": 0.1783,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.1281,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.5
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0305,
        "run_prevention": 0.9427,
        "strikeout": 1.0225
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "808967",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "808967",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 632.0,
            "k_percent": 26.0,
            "bb_percent": 5.9,
            "woba": 0.246,
            "xwoba": 0.27,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 29.6,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.8,
            "hard_hit_percent": 36.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.4318,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9283,
            "whiff_percent": 27.8,
            "swing_percent": 49.4
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 132.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6536,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9166,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.8968,
            "command_and_miss": 0.5621,
            "regression_edge": -0.6857,
            "xwoba_edge": 1.2,
            "barrel_edge": 0.0667,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.1714,
            "whiff_edge": 0.4,
            "bb_edge": 0.825,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0715
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "808967",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 101,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 101,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 91.12649125856004,
              "release_spin_rate": 2171.345309333937,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 101,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 91.12649125856004,
                "release_spin_rate": 2171.345309333937,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 91.1265,
              "release_spin_rate": 2171.3453,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0715,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.5111,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.5855,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9502,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0389,
          "walk_factor": 0.934,
          "homer_factor": 0.9518,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.024,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "808967",
            "espn_id": 4872587,
            "player_name": "Yoshinobu Yamamoto",
            "team": "LAD",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 8,
            "espn_total_ranked": 861,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 8,
              "gp_value": 26.0,
              "gp_rank": "313",
              "gs_value": 26.0,
              "gs_rank": "56",
              "qs_value": 20.0,
              "qs_rank": "2",
              "era_value": 2.6162,
              "era_rank": 7.0,
              "w_value": 13.0,
              "w_rank": "12",
              "l_value": 8.0,
              "l_rank": "64",
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": "251",
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": "354",
              "ip_value": 172.0,
              "ip_rank": "9",
              "h_value": 113.0,
              "h_rank": "97",
              "er_value": 50.0,
              "er_rank": "106",
              "hr_value": 19.0,
              "hr_rank": "52",
              "bb_value": 39.0,
              "bb_rank": "96",
              "k_value": 171.0,
              "k_rank": "20",
              "k_per_9_value": 8.947675,
              "k_per_9_rank": 60.0,
              "whip_value": 0.8837,
              "whip_rank": 2.0,
              "war_value": 5.37,
              "war_rank": 9.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9502,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9502,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.934,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9518,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 8.0,
            "factor": 1.0389,
            "adjusted": 8
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 7.0,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 8,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 25,
      "Pitches": 106,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260915_LAD@CIN.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260915

20260915_LAD@CIN

home

Rhett Lowder

True

4.2

5.0

6/5

1/2

5/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 5.807262569832402,
      "WHIP": 1.5251396648044693,
      "IP": 119.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 26,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.884,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.0,
      "last_start_IP": 3.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.6167,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0524,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9371,
      "walk_factor": 0.998,
      "homer_factor": 1.0895,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 17.4,
      "bb_percent": 9.1,
      "woba": 0.35,
      "xwoba": 0.351,
      "barrel_percent": 9.9,
      "hard_hit_percent": 39.0,
      "whiff_percent": 18.6
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 480,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 26.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8387,
        "prior_weight": 0.1613
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "695076",
      "report_date": "20260915",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 26,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 25.0,
            "ER": 23.0,
            "R": 25.0,
            "H": 33.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 17.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 118.0,
            "Pitches": 463.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 4.6,
            "R": 5.0,
            "H": 6.6,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 3.4,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 23.6,
            "Pitches": 92.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 8.28,
            "WHIP": 1.68,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.92,
            "H_per_IP": 1.32,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.36,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.68,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.2
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 49.2,
            "ER": 39.0,
            "R": 41.0,
            "H": 61.0,
            "BB": 14.0,
            "SO": 35.0,
            "HR": 8.0,
            "BF": 224.0,
            "Pitches": 866.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 3.9,
            "R": 4.1,
            "H": 6.1,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 3.5,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 22.4,
            "Pitches": 86.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 7.0671,
            "WHIP": 1.5101,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.78523,
            "H_per_IP": 1.22819,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.28188,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.7047,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.16107
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 26,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 119.1,
            "ER": 77.0,
            "R": 80.0,
            "H": 133.0,
            "BB": 49.0,
            "SO": 94.0,
            "HR": 17.0,
            "BF": 541.0,
            "Pitches": 2066.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.9615,
            "R": 3.0769,
            "H": 5.1154,
            "BB": 1.8846,
            "SO": 3.6154,
            "HR": 0.6538,
            "BF": 20.8077,
            "Pitches": 79.4615
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.8073,
            "WHIP": 1.5251,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.64525,
            "H_per_IP": 1.11453,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.41061,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.78771,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.14246
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 3.796,
        "predicted_H": 5.949,
        "predicted_BB": 1.72,
        "predicted_SO": 3.694,
        "predicted_HR": 0.843,
        "predicted_ERA": 6.9107,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.551
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4181,
      "form_weight": 0.5819,
      "form_reliability": 0.8387,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 26.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8387,
        "prior_weight": 0.1613
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 3.796,
          "final": 3.8813,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.949,
          "final": 5.5522,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.72,
          "final": 1.4189,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 3.694,
          "final": 4.2401,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.843,
          "final": 0.9086,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 6.9107,
          "final": 6.9107,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.551,
          "final": 1.551,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 49.2,
        "ER": 39,
        "H": 61,
        "BB": 14,
        "SO": 35,
        "HR": 8,
        "ERA": 7.067114093959731,
        "WHIP": 1.5100671140939597,
        "K9": 6.342281879194631,
        "HR9": 1.4496644295302012,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-09T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.2981672220671174,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 26.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8387,
          "prior_weight": 0.1613
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.2,
          "predicted_ER": 4,
          "predicted_H": 5,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 5,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_quality_floor",
        "description": "Weak starter floor restored expected damage from recent form instead of assigning it to zero-inning bullpen rows.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.2,
          "predicted_ER": 4,
          "predicted_H": 6,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 5,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "695076",
      "player_name": "Rhett Lowder",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CIN",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.2,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": -0.8,
              "percent_delta": -0.16,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": -0.8,
              "percent_delta": -0.16,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "starter_quality_floor",
          "description": "Weak starter floor restored expected damage from recent form instead of assigning it to zero-inning bullpen rows.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.2,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.2,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.2,
              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.2,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 4,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.2,
            "predicted_R": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.2,
              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.2,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 4.2,
            "delta": -0.8,
            "percent_delta": -0.16,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 2,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 2,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.2,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 4.2,
            "delta": -0.8,
            "percent_delta": -0.16,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "CIN",
        "games": 150,
        "wins": 70,
        "losses": 80,
        "win_pct": 0.4667,
        "runs_scored": 625.0,
        "runs_allowed": 773.0,
        "run_differential": -148.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.9867,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1667,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.1533,
        "offense_index": 0.9273,
        "defense_index": 0.8719,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 8.4,
          "run_differential": -40.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.2191
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "LAD",
        "games": 150,
        "wins": 91,
        "losses": 59,
        "win_pct": 0.6067,
        "runs_scored": 745.0,
        "runs_allowed": 572.0,
        "run_differential": 173.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.1533,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.9667,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8133,
        "offense_index": 1.1054,
        "defense_index": 1.1783,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 8,
          "losses": 2,
          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.2,
          "run_differential": 26.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.3369
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.556,
        "offense_edge": -0.0727,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.1054,
        "defense_strength": -0.1281,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1783,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.5
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9697,
        "run_prevention": 1.0575,
        "strikeout": 0.9749
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "695076",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "695076",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 511.0,
            "k_percent": 17.4,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.35,
            "xwoba": 0.351,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 37.5,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 9.9,
            "hard_hit_percent": 39.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.8155,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.3464,
            "whiff_percent": 18.6,
            "swing_percent": 44.5
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 132.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6536,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9166,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.8084,
            "command_and_miss": -0.6107,
            "regression_edge": -0.0286,
            "xwoba_edge": -1.1143,
            "barrel_edge": -0.6222,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.1571,
            "whiff_edge": -0.9143,
            "bb_edge": 0.025,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0292
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "695076",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 97,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 97,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.3270357792148,
              "release_spin_rate": 2349.6648334365336,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 97,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.3270357792148,
                "release_spin_rate": 2349.6648334365336,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.327,
              "release_spin_rate": 2349.6648,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0292,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.2087,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.6167,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0524,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9371,
          "walk_factor": 0.998,
          "homer_factor": 1.0895,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.001,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "695076",
            "espn_id": 4758873,
            "player_name": "Rhett Lowder",
            "team": "CIN",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 480,
            "espn_total_ranked": 861,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 480,
              "gp_value": 26.0,
              "gp_rank": "313",
              "gs_value": 23.0,
              "gs_rank": "81",
              "qs_value": 6.0,
              "qs_rank": "93",
              "era_value": 5.8072,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 6.0,
              "w_rank": "109",
              "l_value": 10.0,
              "l_rank": "21",
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": "251",
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": "354",
              "ip_value": 119.1,
              "ip_rank": "93",
              "h_value": 133.0,
              "h_rank": "57",
              "er_value": 77.0,
              "er_rank": "18",
              "hr_value": 17.0,
              "hr_rank": "74",
              "bb_value": 49.0,
              "bb_rank": "47",
              "k_value": 94.0,
              "k_rank": "123",
              "k_per_9_value": 7.0893855,
              "k_per_9_rank": 35.0,
              "whip_value": 1.5251,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.01,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0524,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0524,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.998,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0895,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9371,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.2,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 93,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260915_LAD@CIN.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260915

20260915_MIA@ARI

away

Janson Junk

True

4.2

3.0

-5

-2

5/5

2/1

8/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.54054054054054,
      "WHIP": 1.3243243243243243,
      "IP": 111.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 23,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.0,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.467,
      "last_start_IP": 3.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.2901,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0247,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9057,
      "walk_factor": 0.944,
      "homer_factor": 1.0144,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 15.7,
      "bb_percent": 6.4,
      "woba": 0.325,
      "xwoba": 0.321,
      "barrel_percent": 6.9,
      "hard_hit_percent": 39.7,
      "whiff_percent": 14.8
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 258,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 23.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8214,
        "prior_weight": 0.1786
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "676083",
      "report_date": "20260915",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 23,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 18.1,
            "ER": 11.0,
            "R": 11.0,
            "H": 17.0,
            "BB": 4.0,
            "SO": 8.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 76.0,
            "Pitches": 277.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.2,
            "ER": 2.2,
            "R": 2.2,
            "H": 3.4,
            "BB": 0.8,
            "SO": 1.6,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 15.2,
            "Pitches": 55.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.4,
            "WHIP": 1.1455,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.6,
            "H_per_IP": 0.92727,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.21818,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.43636,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.05455
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 42.0,
            "ER": 17.0,
            "R": 19.0,
            "H": 44.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 23.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 177.0,
            "Pitches": 647.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 1.7,
            "R": 1.9,
            "H": 4.4,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 2.3,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 17.7,
            "Pitches": 64.7
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.6429,
            "WHIP": 1.2857,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.40476,
            "H_per_IP": 1.04762,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.2381,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.54762,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.04762
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 23,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 111.0,
            "ER": 56.0,
            "R": 61.0,
            "H": 117.0,
            "BB": 30.0,
            "SO": 74.0,
            "HR": 13.0,
            "BF": 472.0,
            "Pitches": 1761.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.4348,
            "R": 2.6522,
            "H": 5.087,
            "BB": 1.3043,
            "SO": 3.2174,
            "HR": 0.5652,
            "BF": 20.5217,
            "Pitches": 76.5652
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.5405,
            "WHIP": 1.3243,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.5045,
            "H_per_IP": 1.05405,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.27027,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.66667,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11712
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.15,
        "predicted_H": 4.166,
        "predicted_BB": 1.094,
        "predicted_SO": 2.504,
        "predicted_HR": 0.334,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.6054,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2518
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4255,
      "form_weight": 0.5745,
      "form_reliability": 0.8214,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 23.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8214,
        "prior_weight": 0.1786
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.2,
          "form": 4.1,
          "final": 4.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.15,
          "final": 2.5116,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.166,
          "final": 4.5208,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.094,
          "final": 1.4795,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 8.0,
          "form": 2.504,
          "final": 4.8423,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.334,
          "final": 0.6174,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.6054,
          "final": 4.6054,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2518,
          "final": 1.2518,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 42.0,
        "ER": 17,
        "H": 44,
        "BB": 10,
        "SO": 23,
        "HR": 2,
        "ERA": 3.642857142857143,
        "WHIP": 1.2857142857142858,
        "K9": 4.928571428571429,
        "HR9": 0.42857142857142855,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 1,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-09T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9073294943585846,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
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          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 8.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 23.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8214,
          "prior_weight": 0.1786
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "676083",
      "player_name": "Janson Junk",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "MIA",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
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            "predicted_IP": 4.2,
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          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.6667,
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              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1,
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              "projection_effect": "worse",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.6667,
              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
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              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.6667,
            "after": 4.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.1,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 8.0,
            "after": 8.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
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          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.6667,
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            "delta": -0.4667,
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            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "MIA",
        "games": 151,
        "wins": 74,
        "losses": 77,
        "win_pct": 0.4901,
        "runs_scored": 673.0,
        "runs_allowed": 668.0,
        "run_differential": 5.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0331,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.457,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4238,
        "offense_index": 0.9905,
        "defense_index": 1.0172,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.7,
          "run_differential": -9.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0744
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "ARI",
        "games": 151,
        "wins": 80,
        "losses": 71,
        "win_pct": 0.5298,
        "runs_scored": 673.0,
        "runs_allowed": 670.0,
        "run_differential": 3.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0199,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.457,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4371,
        "offense_index": 0.9905,
        "defense_index": 1.0141,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1,
          "run_differential": 4.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0628
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.1372,
        "offense_edge": -0.0095,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0095,
        "defense_strength": 0.0172,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0141,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.3
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9954,
        "run_prevention": 1.0036,
        "strikeout": 0.9966
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "676083",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "676083",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 429.0,
            "k_percent": 15.7,
            "bb_percent": 6.4,
            "woba": 0.325,
            "xwoba": 0.321,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 30.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.9,
            "hard_hit_percent": 39.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.6222,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.5091,
            "whiff_percent": 14.8,
            "swing_percent": 48.3
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 132.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6536,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9166,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.1643,
            "command_and_miss": -0.775,
            "regression_edge": 0.1143,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.2571,
            "barrel_edge": 0.0444,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.2571,
            "whiff_edge": -1.4571,
            "bb_edge": 0.7,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.1
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "676083",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 61,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 61,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.0636300355679,
              "release_spin_rate": 2228.8575529472328,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 61,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.0636300355679,
                "release_spin_rate": 2228.8575529472328,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.0636,
              "release_spin_rate": 2228.8576,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.7141,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.2901,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0247,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9057,
          "walk_factor": 0.944,
          "homer_factor": 1.0144,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.004,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "676083",
            "espn_id": 4881980,
            "player_name": "Janson Junk",
            "team": "MIA",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 258,
            "espn_total_ranked": 861,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 258,
              "gp_value": 23.0,
              "gp_rank": "353",
              "gs_value": 22.0,
              "gs_rank": "88",
              "qs_value": 3.0,
              "qs_rank": "141",
              "era_value": 4.5405,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 6.0,
              "w_rank": "109",
              "l_value": 9.0,
              "l_rank": "32",
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": "251",
              "hld_value": 1.0,
              "hld_rank": "272",
              "ip_value": 111.0,
              "ip_rank": "108",
              "h_value": 117.0,
              "h_rank": "87",
              "er_value": 56.0,
              "er_rank": "89",
              "hr_value": 13.0,
              "hr_rank": "127",
              "bb_value": 30.0,
              "bb_rank": "176",
              "k_value": 74.0,
              "k_rank": "172",
              "k_per_9_value": 6.0,
              "k_per_9_rank": 43.0,
              "whip_value": 1.3243,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.52,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0247,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0247,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.944,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.0144,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9057,
            "adjusted": 3
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.2,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 8,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 94,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260915_MIA@ARI.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260915

20260915_MIA@ARI

home

Michael Soroka

True

5.0

1/2

1/1

3/6

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.533557046979866,
      "WHIP": 1.1577181208053693,
      "IP": 99.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 19,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.296,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.267,
      "last_start_IP": 3.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.0641,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0055,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9891,
      "walk_factor": 0.938,
      "homer_factor": 1.0015,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 23.1,
      "bb_percent": 6.1,
      "woba": 0.291,
      "xwoba": 0.319,
      "barrel_percent": 8.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 34.0,
      "whiff_percent": 22.0
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 96,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 19.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7917,
        "prior_weight": 0.2083
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "647336",
      "report_date": "20260915",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 19,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 18.1,
            "ER": 11.0,
            "R": 11.0,
            "H": 20.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 16.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 82.0,
            "Pitches": 308.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.2,
            "ER": 2.2,
            "R": 2.2,
            "H": 4.0,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 3.2,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 16.4,
            "Pitches": 61.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.4,
            "WHIP": 1.5273,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.6,
            "H_per_IP": 1.09091,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.43636,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.87273,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.05455
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 50.1,
            "ER": 20.0,
            "R": 20.0,
            "H": 39.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 40.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 201.0,
            "Pitches": 762.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 3.9,
            "BB": 1.1,
            "SO": 4.0,
            "HR": 0.3,
            "BF": 20.1,
            "Pitches": 76.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.5762,
            "WHIP": 0.9934,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.39735,
            "H_per_IP": 0.77483,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.21854,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.7947,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0596
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 19,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 99.1,
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            "H": 90.0,
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            "SO": 95.0,
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            "Pitches": 1589.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.0526,
            "R": 2.0526,
            "H": 4.7368,
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            "HR": 0.3684,
            "BF": 21.6316,
            "Pitches": 83.6316
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.5336,
            "WHIP": 1.1577,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.39262,
            "H_per_IP": 0.90604,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.25168,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.95638,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07047
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.251,
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        "predicted_BB": 1.528,
        "predicted_SO": 4.021,
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        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2841
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.438,
      "form_weight": 0.562,
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      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 19.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7917,
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      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.2,
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.251,
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          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 4.35,
          "final": 2.8827,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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          "form": 1.528,
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          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 4.021,
          "final": 3.5738,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.356,
          "final": 0.2001,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.4262,
          "final": 4.4262,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2841,
          "final": 1.2841,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 50.1,
        "ER": 20,
        "H": 39,
        "BB": 11,
        "SO": 40,
        "HR": 3,
        "ERA": 3.5761589403973506,
        "WHIP": 0.9933774834437086,
        "K9": 7.152317880794701,
        "HR9": 0.5364238410596026,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 4,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-09T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8925175265250935,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 1.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 3.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 19.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7917,
          "prior_weight": 0.2083
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "647336",
      "player_name": "Michael Soroka",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "ARI",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 1.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 1.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 1.0,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
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            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 0,
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          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "ARI",
        "games": 151,
        "wins": 80,
        "losses": 71,
        "win_pct": 0.5298,
        "runs_scored": 673.0,
        "runs_allowed": 670.0,
        "run_differential": 3.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0199,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.457,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4371,
        "offense_index": 0.9905,
        "defense_index": 1.0141,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1,
          "run_differential": 4.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0628
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "MIA",
        "games": 151,
        "wins": 74,
        "losses": 77,
        "win_pct": 0.4901,
        "runs_scored": 673.0,
        "runs_allowed": 668.0,
        "run_differential": 5.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0331,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.457,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4238,
        "offense_index": 0.9905,
        "defense_index": 1.0172,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.7,
          "run_differential": -9.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0744
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.1372,
        "offense_edge": -0.0095,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0095,
        "defense_strength": 0.0141,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0172,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.3
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0063,
        "run_prevention": 0.9902,
        "strikeout": 1.0049
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "647336",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "647336",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 390.0,
            "k_percent": 23.1,
            "bb_percent": 6.1,
            "woba": 0.291,
            "xwoba": 0.319,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 37.9,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 34.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.8716,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.4814,
            "whiff_percent": 22.0,
            "swing_percent": 49.4
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 132.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6536,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9166,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.0098,
            "command_and_miss": 0.0757,
            "regression_edge": -0.8,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.2,
            "barrel_edge": -0.2222,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.5571,
            "whiff_edge": -0.4286,
            "bb_edge": 0.775,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.1166
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "647336",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 68,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 68,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 87.76748758429557,
              "release_spin_rate": 2593.7909192428456,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 68,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 87.76748758429557,
                "release_spin_rate": 2593.7909192428456,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.7675,
              "release_spin_rate": 2593.7909,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1166,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.8325,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.0641,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0055,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9891,
          "walk_factor": 0.938,
          "homer_factor": 1.0015,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.028,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "647336",
            "espn_id": 34984,
            "player_name": "Michael Soroka",
            "team": "ARI",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 96,
            "espn_total_ranked": 861,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 96,
              "gp_value": 19.0,
              "gp_rank": "407",
              "gs_value": 18.0,
              "gs_rank": "114",
              "qs_value": 7.0,
              "qs_rank": "82",
              "era_value": 3.5335,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 8.0,
              "w_rank": "67",
              "l_value": 5.0,
              "l_rank": "137",
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": "251",
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": "354",
              "ip_value": 99.1,
              "ip_rank": "128",
              "h_value": 90.0,
              "h_rank": "128",
              "er_value": 39.0,
              "er_rank": "155",
              "hr_value": 7.0,
              "hr_rank": "228",
              "bb_value": 25.0,
              "bb_rank": "221",
              "k_value": 95.0,
              "k_rank": "119",
              "k_per_9_value": 8.607383,
              "k_per_9_rank": 25.0,
              "whip_value": 1.1577,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 1.75,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0055,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0055,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.938,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.0015,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9891,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 1,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 3,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 17,
      "Pitches": 74,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260915_MIA@ARI.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260915

20260915_MIL@PIT

away

Jacob Misiorowski

True

6.0

5.0

-3

-2

5/5

4/1

7/7

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 1.952479338842975,
      "WHIP": 0.7995867768595041,
      "IP": 161.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 27,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.975,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.667,
      "last_start_IP": 6.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 1.3803,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.8827,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.16,
      "walk_factor": 0.95,
      "homer_factor": 0.8423,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 38.3,
      "bb_percent": 6.7,
      "woba": 0.218,
      "xwoba": 0.225,
      "barrel_percent": 3.9,
      "hard_hit_percent": 33.3,
      "whiff_percent": 37.4
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 6,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 6.0,
      "season_IP": 161.1,
      "season_ERA": 1.952,
      "season_WHIP": 0.8,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
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      "fielding": {
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        "games_fielded": 10,
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      "steps": [
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        {
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
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        "profile": {
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          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
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            "pitcher_id": "694819",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
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            "primary_pitch": {
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              "pitches": 93,
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              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
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          "run_prevention_factor": 0.8827,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.16,
          "walk_factor": 0.95,
          "homer_factor": 0.8423,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.007,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "694819",
            "espn_id": 5080761,
            "player_name": "Jacob Misiorowski",
            "team": "MIL",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 6,
            "espn_total_ranked": 861,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 6,
              "gp_value": 27.0,
              "gp_rank": "297",
              "gs_value": 27.0,
              "gs_rank": "45",
              "qs_value": 18.0,
              "qs_rank": "6",
              "era_value": 1.9524,
              "era_rank": 1.0,
              "w_value": 14.0,
              "w_rank": "6",
              "l_value": 5.0,
              "l_rank": "137",
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": "251",
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": "354",
              "ip_value": 161.1,
              "ip_rank": "30",
              "h_value": 88.0,
              "h_rank": "130",
              "er_value": 35.0,
              "er_rank": "168",
              "hr_value": 14.0,
              "hr_rank": "109",
              "bb_value": 41.0,
              "bb_rank": "83",
              "k_value": 236.0,
              "k_rank": "1",
              "k_per_9_value": 13.165289,
              "k_per_9_rank": null,
              "whip_value": 0.7995,
              "whip_rank": 1.0,
              "war_value": 5.68,
              "war_rank": 6.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.8827,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.8827,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.95,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.8423,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 1.16,
            "adjusted": 8
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 4,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 27,
      "Pitches": 117,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: True; actual quality start: False."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260915_MIL@PIT.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260915

20260915_MIL@PIT

home

Lake Bachar

True

5.0

2.0

-9

-1

4/3

4/2

4/1

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.9495798319327733,
      "WHIP": 1.0210084033613447,
      "IP": 79.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 47,
      "role_avg_IP": 2.259,
      "recent_avg_IP": 2.267,
      "last_start_IP": 1.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.3207,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9727,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0491,
      "walk_factor": 1.02,
      "homer_factor": 0.9848,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 25.5,
      "bb_percent": 10.2,
      "woba": 0.286,
      "xwoba": 0.29,
      "barrel_percent": 8.4,
      "hard_hit_percent": 34.5,
      "whiff_percent": 30.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 154,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.2,
      "season_IP": 79.1,
      "season_ERA": 2.95,
      "season_WHIP": 1.021,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 16.065,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7626,
        "prior_weight": 0.2374
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "669199",
      "report_date": "20260915",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 47,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 9.2,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 4.0,
            "BB": 6.0,
            "SO": 10.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 38.0,
            "Pitches": 144.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 2.0,
            "ER": 0.4,
            "R": 0.4,
            "H": 0.8,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 2.0,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 7.6,
            "Pitches": 28.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.8621,
            "WHIP": 1.0345,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.2069,
            "H_per_IP": 0.41379,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.62069,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.03448,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10345
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 20.2,
            "ER": 6.0,
            "R": 6.0,
            "H": 11.0,
            "BB": 12.0,
            "SO": 22.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 83.0,
            "Pitches": 344.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 2.0,
            "ER": 0.6,
            "R": 0.6,
            "H": 1.1,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 2.2,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 8.3,
            "Pitches": 34.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.6129,
            "WHIP": 1.1129,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.29032,
            "H_per_IP": 0.53226,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.58065,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.06452,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.19355
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 47,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 79.1,
            "ER": 26.0,
            "R": 28.0,
            "H": 50.0,
            "BB": 31.0,
            "SO": 83.0,
            "HR": 12.0,
            "BF": 319.0,
            "Pitches": 1279.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.2,
            "ER": 0.5532,
            "R": 0.5957,
            "H": 1.0638,
            "BB": 0.6596,
            "SO": 1.766,
            "HR": 0.2553,
            "BF": 6.7872,
            "Pitches": 27.2128
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.9496,
            "WHIP": 1.021,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.32773,
            "H_per_IP": 0.63025,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.39076,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.04622,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15126
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 2.2,
        "predicted_ER": 0.9,
        "predicted_H": 1.726,
        "predicted_BB": 1.456,
        "predicted_SO": 2.881,
        "predicted_HR": 0.409,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.8712,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1284
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4503,
      "form_weight": 0.5497,
      "form_reliability": 0.7626,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 16.065,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7626,
        "prior_weight": 0.2374
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 2.2,
          "final": 4.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 0.9,
          "final": 1.8456,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 1.726,
          "final": 2.75,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 1.456,
          "final": 2.6016,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.881,
          "final": 3.3849,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.409,
          "final": 0.2248,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.8712,
          "final": 2.8712,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1284,
          "final": 1.1284,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 20.2,
        "ER": 6,
        "H": 11,
        "BB": 12,
        "SO": 22,
        "HR": 4,
        "ERA": 2.6129032258064515,
        "WHIP": 1.1129032258064515,
        "K9": 9.580645161290322,
        "HR9": 1.7419354838709677,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-09T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8551137060590751,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 4.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 16.065,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7626,
          "prior_weight": 0.2374
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 4,
          "predicted_BB": 4,
          "predicted_SO": 4,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 4,
          "predicted_BB": 4,
          "predicted_SO": 4,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "669199",
      "player_name": "Lake Bachar",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "PIT",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": -0.6667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1176,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": -0.6667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1176,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 4.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.3333,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.3333,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 4,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.3333,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": -0.6667,
            "percent_delta": -0.1177,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 2,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 2,
          "better_metrics": 1,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.3333,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "deboosted"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "PIT",
        "games": 150,
        "wins": 75,
        "losses": 75,
        "win_pct": 0.5,
        "runs_scored": 718.0,
        "runs_allowed": 692.0,
        "run_differential": 26.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1733,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.7867,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6133,
        "offense_index": 1.0658,
        "defense_index": 0.9736,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.2,
          "run_differential": 0.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0912
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "MIL",
        "games": 150,
        "wins": 93,
        "losses": 57,
        "win_pct": 0.62,
        "runs_scored": 778.0,
        "runs_allowed": 583.0,
        "run_differential": 195.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.3,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.1867,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8867,
        "offense_index": 1.1548,
        "defense_index": 1.1556,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 7.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.1,
          "run_differential": 23.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.2962
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.205,
        "offense_edge": 0.0658,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.1548,
        "defense_strength": -0.0264,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1556,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9848,
        "run_prevention": 1.0377,
        "strikeout": 0.9815
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "669199",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "669199",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 317.0,
            "k_percent": 25.5,
            "bb_percent": 10.2,
            "woba": 0.286,
            "xwoba": 0.29,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 30.0,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.4,
            "hard_hit_percent": 34.5,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.7527,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.6373,
            "whiff_percent": 30.1,
            "swing_percent": 45.1
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 132.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6536,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9166,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.3942,
            "command_and_miss": 0.43,
            "regression_edge": -0.1143,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.6286,
            "barrel_edge": -0.2889,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.4857,
            "whiff_edge": 0.7286,
            "bb_edge": -0.25,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0059
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "669199",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 29,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 29,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.74314971920984,
              "release_spin_rate": 2696.150229014235,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 29,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.74314971920984,
                "release_spin_rate": 2696.150229014235,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.7431,
              "release_spin_rate": 2696.1502,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0059,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.0423,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.3207,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9727,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0491,
          "walk_factor": 1.02,
          "homer_factor": 0.9848,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.004,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "669199",
            "espn_id": 42592,
            "player_name": "Lake Bachar",
            "team": "PIT",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 154,
            "espn_total_ranked": 861,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 154,
              "gp_value": 48.0,
              "gp_rank": "123",
              "gs_value": 9.0,
              "gs_rank": "181",
              "qs_value": 0.0,
              "qs_rank": "210",
              "era_value": 3.5168,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 1.0,
              "w_rank": "414",
              "l_value": 3.0,
              "l_rank": "245",
              "sv_value": 2.0,
              "sv_rank": "93",
              "hld_value": 1.0,
              "hld_rank": "272",
              "ip_value": 79.1,
              "ip_rank": "166",
              "h_value": 54.0,
              "h_rank": "226",
              "er_value": 31.0,
              "er_rank": "184",
              "hr_value": 13.0,
              "hr_rank": "127",
              "bb_value": 33.0,
              "bb_rank": "143",
              "k_value": 83.0,
              "k_rank": "151",
              "k_per_9_value": 9.415967,
              "k_per_9_rank": 24.0,
              "whip_value": 1.0966,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 1.21,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9727,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9727,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.02,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9848,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0491,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 4,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 24,
      "Pitches": 103,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least three innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -9 outs from the projected workload."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260915_MIL@PIT.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260915

20260915_NYY@MIN

away

Max Fried

True

6.0

7.0

1/6

3/0

6/6

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.727272727272727,
      "WHIP": 0.98989898989899,
      "IP": 99.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 18,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.5,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.8,
      "last_start_IP": 3.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.8444,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9282,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0143,
      "walk_factor": 0.978,
      "homer_factor": 0.8068,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 24.6,
      "bb_percent": 8.1,
      "woba": 0.243,
      "xwoba": 0.249,
      "barrel_percent": 2.0,
      "hard_hit_percent": 29.4,
      "whiff_percent": 24.9
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 25,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 6.0,
      "season_IP": 99.0,
      "season_ERA": 2.727,
      "season_WHIP": 0.99,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 18.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7826,
        "prior_weight": 0.2174
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "608331",
      "report_date": "20260915",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 18,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 24.0,
            "ER": 4.0,
            "R": 4.0,
            "H": 16.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 26.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 92.0,
            "Pitches": 393.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 0.8,
            "R": 0.8,
            "H": 3.2,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 5.2,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 18.4,
            "Pitches": 78.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.5,
            "WHIP": 1.0,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.16667,
            "H_per_IP": 0.66667,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.33333,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.08333,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.125
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 46.1,
            "ER": 16.0,
            "R": 16.0,
            "H": 35.0,
            "BB": 16.0,
            "SO": 51.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 181.0,
            "Pitches": 749.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 1.6,
            "R": 1.6,
            "H": 3.5,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 5.1,
            "HR": 0.3,
            "BF": 18.1,
            "Pitches": 74.9
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.1079,
            "WHIP": 1.1007,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.34532,
            "H_per_IP": 0.7554,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.34532,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.10072,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.06475
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 18,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 99.0,
            "ER": 30.0,
            "R": 30.0,
            "H": 67.0,
            "BB": 31.0,
            "SO": 94.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 382.0,
            "Pitches": 1511.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 1.6667,
            "R": 1.6667,
            "H": 3.7222,
            "BB": 1.7222,
            "SO": 5.2222,
            "HR": 0.2222,
            "BF": 21.2222,
            "Pitches": 83.9444
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.7273,
            "WHIP": 0.9899,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.30303,
            "H_per_IP": 0.67677,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.31313,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.94949,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0404
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 1.574,
        "predicted_H": 3.846,
        "predicted_BB": 1.732,
        "predicted_SO": 5.243,
        "predicted_HR": 0.507,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.7999,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1022
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4419,
      "form_weight": 0.5581,
      "form_reliability": 0.7826,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 18.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7826,
        "prior_weight": 0.2174
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.574,
          "final": 1.3204,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 3.846,
          "final": 2.5885,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 1.732,
          "final": 2.2923,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 5.243,
          "final": 5.5775,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.507,
          "final": 0.283,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.7999,
          "final": 2.7999,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1022,
          "final": 1.1022,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 46.1,
        "ER": 16,
        "H": 35,
        "BB": 16,
        "SO": 51,
        "HR": 3,
        "ERA": 3.1079136690647484,
        "WHIP": 1.1007194244604317,
        "K9": 9.906474820143886,
        "HR9": 0.5827338129496403,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 1,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-10T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8425234820255938,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 1.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 6.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 18.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7826,
          "prior_weight": 0.2174
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 1,
          "predicted_H": 1,
          "predicted_BB": 3,
          "predicted_SO": 6,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "608331",
      "player_name": "Max Fried",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "NYY",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
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          "changed_metrics": [],
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          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
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          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "NYY",
        "games": 150,
        "wins": 87,
        "losses": 63,
        "win_pct": 0.58,
        "runs_scored": 685.0,
        "runs_allowed": 555.0,
        "run_differential": 130.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.8667,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5667,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7,
        "offense_index": 1.0174,
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        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.4,
          "run_differential": 15.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.2442
      },
      "opponent": {
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        "games": 150,
        "wins": 70,
        "losses": 80,
        "win_pct": 0.4667,
        "runs_scored": 686.0,
        "runs_allowed": 753.0,
        "run_differential": -67.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.4467,
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        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.02,
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          "win_pct": 0.3,
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          "run_differential": -29.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.153
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.3972,
        "offense_edge": 0.0174,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0189,
        "defense_strength": 0.2131,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.1059,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.4
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      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0215,
        "run_prevention": 0.9619,
        "strikeout": 1.0104
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "608331",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "608331",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 366.0,
            "k_percent": 24.6,
            "bb_percent": 8.1,
            "woba": 0.243,
            "xwoba": 0.249,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 29.8,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 2.0,
            "hard_hit_percent": 29.4,
            "avg_best_speed": 74.2355,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 92.5632,
            "whiff_percent": 24.9,
            "swing_percent": 45.9
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          "league_medians": {
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            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6536,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9166,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
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          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 1.4505,
            "command_and_miss": 0.2171,
            "regression_edge": -0.1714,
            "xwoba_edge": 1.8,
            "barrel_edge": 1.1333,
            "hard_hit_edge": 1.2143,
            "whiff_edge": -0.0143,
            "bb_edge": 0.275,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0898
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "608331",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 78,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 78,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.24589383369891,
              "release_spin_rate": 2246.0009168975425,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 78,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.24589383369891,
                "release_spin_rate": 2246.0009168975425,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.2459,
              "release_spin_rate": 2246.0009,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
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              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0898,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.6412,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.8444,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9282,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0143,
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          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "608331",
            "espn_id": 32685,
            "player_name": "Max Fried",
            "team": "NYY",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 25,
            "espn_total_ranked": 861,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 25,
              "gp_value": 18.0,
              "gp_rank": "418",
              "gs_value": 18.0,
              "gs_rank": "114",
              "qs_value": 7.0,
              "qs_rank": "82",
              "era_value": 2.7272,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 4.0,
              "w_rank": "192",
              "l_value": 4.0,
              "l_rank": "190",
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": "251",
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": "354",
              "ip_value": 99.0,
              "ip_rank": "131",
              "h_value": 67.0,
              "h_rank": "178",
              "er_value": 30.0,
              "er_rank": "193",
              "hr_value": 4.0,
              "hr_rank": "379",
              "bb_value": 31.0,
              "bb_rank": "162",
              "k_value": 94.0,
              "k_rank": "123",
              "k_per_9_value": 8.545455,
              "k_per_9_rank": 25.0,
              "whip_value": 0.9898,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 3.4,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9282,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9282,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.978,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.82,
            "adjusted": 0
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0143,
            "adjusted": 5
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 1,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 103,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 5",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +5."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -3."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260915_NYY@MIN.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260915

20260915_NYY@MIN

home

Bailey Ober

True

5.0

5.1

-1

5/9

2/2

6/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "ERA": 4.28328611898017,
      "WHIP": 1.2492917847025495,
      "IP": 117.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 22,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.348,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.933,
      "last_start_IP": 4.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.2855,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0243,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.944,
      "walk_factor": 0.952,
      "homer_factor": 1.0511,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 17.1,
      "bb_percent": 6.8,
      "woba": 0.317,
      "xwoba": 0.327,
      "barrel_percent": 9.8,
      "hard_hit_percent": 36.2,
      "whiff_percent": 20.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 94,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 22.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8148,
        "prior_weight": 0.1852
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "641927",
      "report_date": "20260915",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 22,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 24.2,
            "ER": 10.0,
            "R": 11.0,
            "H": 24.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 22.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 109.0,
            "Pitches": 445.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.2,
            "H": 4.8,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 4.4,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 21.8,
            "Pitches": 89.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.6486,
            "WHIP": 1.3784,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.40541,
            "H_per_IP": 0.97297,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.40541,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.89189,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.16216
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 51.0,
            "ER": 22.0,
            "R": 24.0,
            "H": 50.0,
            "BB": 16.0,
            "SO": 39.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 217.0,
            "Pitches": 849.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.2,
            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 3.9,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 21.7,
            "Pitches": 84.9
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.8824,
            "WHIP": 1.2941,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.43137,
            "H_per_IP": 0.98039,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.31373,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.76471,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11765
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 22,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 117.2,
            "ER": 56.0,
            "R": 60.0,
            "H": 113.0,
            "BB": 34.0,
            "SO": 85.0,
            "HR": 18.0,
            "BF": 498.0,
            "Pitches": 1881.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.5455,
            "R": 2.7273,
            "H": 5.1364,
            "BB": 1.5455,
            "SO": 3.8636,
            "HR": 0.8182,
            "BF": 22.6364,
            "Pitches": 85.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.2833,
            "WHIP": 1.2493,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.47592,
            "H_per_IP": 0.96034,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.28895,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.72238,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15297
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.24,
        "predicted_H": 4.921,
        "predicted_BB": 1.792,
        "predicted_SO": 4.23,
        "predicted_HR": 0.734,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.9893,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3282
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4282,
      "form_weight": 0.5718,
      "form_reliability": 0.8148,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 22.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8148,
        "prior_weight": 0.1852
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.24,
          "final": 2.9937,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.921,
          "final": 4.9548,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.792,
          "final": 1.8811,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 4.23,
          "final": 4.988,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.734,
          "final": 0.8479,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.9893,
          "final": 3.9893,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3282,
          "final": 1.3282,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 51.0,
        "ER": 22,
        "H": 50,
        "BB": 16,
        "SO": 39,
        "HR": 6,
        "ERA": 3.8823529411764706,
        "WHIP": 1.2941176470588236,
        "K9": 6.882352941176471,
        "HR9": 1.0588235294117647,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 2,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-06T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9344828557031224,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 6.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 22.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8148,
          "prior_weight": 0.1852
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "641927",
      "player_name": "Bailey Ober",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "MIN",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 0,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 0,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "MIN",
        "games": 150,
        "wins": 70,
        "losses": 80,
        "win_pct": 0.4667,
        "runs_scored": 686.0,
        "runs_allowed": 753.0,
        "run_differential": -67.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.4467,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5733,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.02,
        "offense_index": 1.0189,
        "defense_index": 0.8941,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 2.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.7,
          "run_differential": -29.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.153
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "NYY",
        "games": 150,
        "wins": 87,
        "losses": 63,
        "win_pct": 0.58,
        "runs_scored": 685.0,
        "runs_allowed": 555.0,
        "run_differential": 130.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.8667,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5667,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7,
        "offense_index": 1.0174,
        "defense_index": 1.2131,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.4,
          "run_differential": 15.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.2442
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.3972,
        "offense_edge": 0.0189,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0174,
        "defense_strength": -0.1059,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.2131,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.4
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9802,
        "run_prevention": 1.0332,
        "strikeout": 0.9867
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "641927",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "641927",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 476.0,
            "k_percent": 17.1,
            "bb_percent": 6.8,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.327,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 30.6,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 9.8,
            "hard_hit_percent": 36.2,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5331,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8512,
            "whiff_percent": 20.1,
            "swing_percent": 48.9
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 132.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6536,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9166,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.2144,
            "command_and_miss": -0.44,
            "regression_edge": -0.2857,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.4286,
            "barrel_edge": -0.6,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.2429,
            "whiff_edge": -0.7,
            "bb_edge": 0.6,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.28
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "641927",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 87,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 87,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 83.55180572766697,
              "release_spin_rate": 2147.7788498777327,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 87,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 83.55180572766697,
                "release_spin_rate": 2147.7788498777327,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 83.5518,
              "release_spin_rate": 2147.7788,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.28,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -2.0,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.2855,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0243,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.944,
          "walk_factor": 0.952,
          "homer_factor": 1.0511,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.01,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "641927",
            "espn_id": 3107919,
            "player_name": "Bailey Ober",
            "team": "MIN",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 94,
            "espn_total_ranked": 861,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 94,
              "gp_value": 22.0,
              "gp_rank": "374",
              "gs_value": 22.0,
              "gs_rank": "88",
              "qs_value": 6.0,
              "qs_rank": "93",
              "era_value": 4.2832,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 7.0,
              "w_rank": "87",
              "l_value": 5.0,
              "l_rank": "137",
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": "251",
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": "354",
              "ip_value": 117.2,
              "ip_rank": "100",
              "h_value": 113.0,
              "h_rank": "97",
              "er_value": 56.0,
              "er_rank": "89",
              "hr_value": 18.0,
              "hr_rank": "62",
              "bb_value": 34.0,
              "bb_rank": "134",
              "k_value": 85.0,
              "k_rank": "147",
              "k_per_9_value": 6.5014167,
              "k_per_9_rank": 39.0,
              "whip_value": 1.2492,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 1.79,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0243,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0243,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.952,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0511,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.944,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 98,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +4."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260915_NYY@MIN.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260915

20260915_OAK@TB

away

Jack Perkins

True

4.0

6.2

-4

5/4

1/1

2/8

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 6.532258064516129,
      "WHIP": 1.5290322580645161,
      "IP": 103.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 34,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.548,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.2,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0521,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9956,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0286,
      "walk_factor": 1.014,
      "homer_factor": 1.0259,
      "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 25.2,
      "bb_percent": 9.9,
      "woba": 0.361,
      "xwoba": 0.311,
      "barrel_percent": 8.8,
      "hard_hit_percent": 37.3,
      "whiff_percent": 26.8
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 853,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 34.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8718,
        "prior_weight": 0.1282
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "678022",
      "report_date": "20260915",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 34,
      "reference_playing_time": 8.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 21.2,
            "ER": 9.0,
            "R": 12.0,
            "H": 19.0,
            "BB": 15.0,
            "SO": 25.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 97.0,
            "Pitches": 395.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 3.8,
            "BB": 3.0,
            "SO": 5.0,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 19.4,
            "Pitches": 79.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.7385,
            "WHIP": 1.5692,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.41538,
            "H_per_IP": 0.87692,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.69231,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.15385,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.18462
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
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          "per_game": {
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          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.6423,
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            "BB_per_IP": 0.52555,
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        },
        "season": {
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          "per_game": {
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          "rates": {
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      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
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    "model_form_blend_trace": {
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      "adaptive_parameters": {
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        "predicted_ER": {
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        "predicted_SO": {
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        "predicted_HR": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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        "predicted_WHIP": {
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    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
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      "pitching": {
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      "fielding": {
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        "games_fielded": 10,
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-08T00:00:00"
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    "recent_form_boost": 1.193741121053058,
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
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        "stats": {
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "team": "OAK",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
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          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
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          "changed_metrics": [],
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          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
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          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          },
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        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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            {
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            {
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
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          {
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          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
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        "games": 150,
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        "win_pct": 0.4067,
        "runs_scored": 656.0,
        "runs_allowed": 859.0,
        "run_differential": -203.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.3533,
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        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.7267,
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        "recent": {
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          "win_pct": 0.7,
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          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.4,
          "run_differential": -9.0
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        "available": true,
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      "opponent": {
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        "runs_scored": 682.0,
        "runs_allowed": 613.0,
        "run_differential": 69.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.4631,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5772,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1141,
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          "avg_runs_scored": 5.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.6,
          "run_differential": 18.0
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        "available": true,
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      },
      "edges": {
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        "offense_edge": -0.0263,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0191,
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        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
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      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9772,
        "run_prevention": 1.0441,
        "strikeout": 0.9868
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "678022",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "678022",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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            "k_percent": 25.2,
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            "avg_best_speed": 78.7924,
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          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 132.0,
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            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
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          "components": {
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            "xwoba_edge": 0.0286,
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          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "678022",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 83,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 83,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 91.26230166793476,
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              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
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            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
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                "pitches": 83,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 91.26230166793476,
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                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 91.2623,
              "release_spin_rate": 2235.8888,
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              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
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              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
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            "components": {
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              "velocity_edge": 0.5654,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0521,
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          "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_name": "Jack Perkins",
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            "espn_total_ranked": 861,
            "metrics": {
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              "l_rank": "11",
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              "hr_value": 20.0,
              "hr_rank": "40",
              "bb_value": 47.0,
              "bb_rank": "55",
              "k_value": 119.0,
              "k_rank": "74",
              "k_per_9_value": 10.364516,
              "k_per_9_rank": 16.0,
              "whip_value": 1.529,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": -1.27,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9956,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 0.9956,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.014,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0259,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0286,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.0,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 5,
      "predicted_ER": 5,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 2,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 18,
      "Pitches": 69,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -4; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by +8 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "MISSED_SHUTDOWN",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Model missed a shutdown outing",
      "detail": "The pitcher allowed zero earned runs after a projection of 4 ER."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260915_OAK@TB.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260915

20260915_OAK@TB

home

Griffin Jax

True

5.0

-4

5/2

2/0

4/7

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.714765100671141,
      "WHIP": 1.1979865771812082,
      "IP": 99.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 30,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.517,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.867,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.0834,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0071,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0451,
      "walk_factor": 0.976,
      "homer_factor": 1.0747,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 24.9,
      "bb_percent": 8.0,
      "woba": 0.31,
      "xwoba": 0.328,
      "barrel_percent": 9.5,
      "hard_hit_percent": 41.1,
      "whiff_percent": 30.0
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 552,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.0,
      "season_IP": 99.1,
      "season_ERA": 3.715,
      "season_WHIP": 1.198,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 30.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8571,
        "prior_weight": 0.1429
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "643377",
      "report_date": "20260915",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 30,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 24.1,
            "ER": 10.0,
            "R": 13.0,
            "H": 21.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 26.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 101.0,
            "Pitches": 387.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.6,
            "H": 4.2,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 5.2,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 20.2,
            "Pitches": 77.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.6986,
            "WHIP": 1.1507,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.41096,
            "H_per_IP": 0.86301,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.28767,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.06849,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08219
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 50.1,
            "ER": 24.0,
            "R": 29.0,
            "H": 44.0,
            "BB": 15.0,
            "SO": 57.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 211.0,
            "Pitches": 781.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.9,
            "H": 4.4,
            "BB": 1.5,
            "SO": 5.7,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 21.1,
            "Pitches": 78.1
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.2914,
            "WHIP": 1.1722,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.47682,
            "H_per_IP": 0.87417,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.29801,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.13245,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11921
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 30,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 99.1,
            "ER": 41.0,
            "R": 51.0,
            "H": 87.0,
            "BB": 32.0,
            "SO": 103.0,
            "HR": 15.0,
            "BF": 408.0,
            "Pitches": 1515.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.1,
            "ER": 1.3667,
            "R": 1.7,
            "H": 2.9,
            "BB": 1.0667,
            "SO": 3.4333,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 13.6,
            "Pitches": 50.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.7148,
            "WHIP": 1.198,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.41275,
            "H_per_IP": 0.87584,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.32215,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.03691,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15101
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.097,
        "predicted_H": 4.171,
        "predicted_BB": 1.457,
        "predicted_SO": 5.015,
        "predicted_HR": 0.539,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.0037,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1938
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4104,
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      "form_reliability": 0.8571,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8571,
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      "applied_metrics": {
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          "form": 4.2,
          "final": 4.2,
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.097,
          "final": 2.8779,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.171,
          "final": 4.5112,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.457,
          "final": 1.6798,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
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          "final": 4.5985,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.539,
          "final": 0.7282,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.0037,
          "final": 4.0037,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1938,
          "final": 1.1938,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 50.1,
        "ER": 24,
        "H": 44,
        "BB": 15,
        "SO": 57,
        "HR": 6,
        "ERA": 4.291390728476821,
        "WHIP": 1.1721854304635762,
        "K9": 10.19205298013245,
        "HR9": 1.0728476821192052,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 2,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 2,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-09T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9774513013595307,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
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          "sample_size": 30.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8571,
          "prior_weight": 0.1429
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "643377",
      "player_name": "Griffin Jax",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "TB",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
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            "predicted_R": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
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          {
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          {
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
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      "team": {
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        "run_differential_per_game": 0.4631,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5772,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1141,
        "offense_index": 1.0191,
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        "current_streak": "W3",
        "recent": {
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      "opponent": {
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        "runs_scored": 656.0,
        "runs_allowed": 859.0,
        "run_differential": -203.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.3533,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3733,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.7267,
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          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.4,
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        "available": true,
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      "edges": {
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        "offense_edge": 0.0191,
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        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
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      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0194,
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        "strikeout": 1.0138
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "643377",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "643377",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
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            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 81,
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                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 81,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 91.69538378408564,
                "release_spin_rate": 2571.395898412938,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 91.6954,
              "release_spin_rate": 2571.3959,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.1034,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.7386,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.0834,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0071,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0451,
          "walk_factor": 0.976,
          "homer_factor": 1.0747,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.018,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "643377",
            "espn_id": 42604,
            "player_name": "Griffin Jax",
            "team": "TB",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 552,
            "espn_total_ranked": 861,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 552,
              "gp_value": 31.0,
              "gp_rank": "212",
              "gs_value": 20.0,
              "gs_rank": "100",
              "qs_value": 2.0,
              "qs_rank": "158",
              "era_value": 3.9865,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 7.0,
              "w_rank": "87",
              "l_value": 10.0,
              "l_rank": "21",
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": "251",
              "hld_value": 2.0,
              "hld_rank": "231",
              "ip_value": 99.1,
              "ip_rank": "128",
              "h_value": 90.0,
              "h_rank": "128",
              "er_value": 44.0,
              "er_rank": "137",
              "hr_value": 15.0,
              "hr_rank": "94",
              "bb_value": 33.0,
              "bb_rank": "143",
              "k_value": 103.0,
              "k_rank": "97",
              "k_per_9_value": 9.332215,
              "k_per_9_rank": 20.0,
              "whip_value": 1.2382,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": -0.06,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0071,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0071,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.976,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.0747,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0451,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 97,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -4; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    },
    {
      "code": "MISSED_SHUTDOWN",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Model missed a shutdown outing",
      "detail": "The pitcher allowed zero earned runs after a projection of 4 ER."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260915_OAK@TB.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260915

20260915_PHI@WAS

away

Cristopher Sánchez

True

6.1

3/8

2/2

6/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.786476868327402,
      "WHIP": 1.2117437722419928,
      "IP": 187.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 30,
      "role_avg_IP": 6.244,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.333,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.4906,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9583,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0674,
      "walk_factor": 0.924,
      "homer_factor": 0.992,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 27.0,
      "bb_percent": 5.4,
      "woba": 0.295,
      "xwoba": 0.282,
      "barrel_percent": 7.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 41.0,
      "whiff_percent": 31.8
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 1,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 30.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8571,
        "prior_weight": 0.1429
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "650911",
      "report_date": "20260915",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 30,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 31.2,
            "ER": 14.0,
            "R": 14.0,
            "H": 34.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 29.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 132.0,
            "Pitches": 473.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.1,
            "ER": 2.8,
            "R": 2.8,
            "H": 6.8,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 5.8,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 26.4,
            "Pitches": 94.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.9789,
            "WHIP": 1.2947,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.44211,
            "H_per_IP": 1.07368,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.22105,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.91579,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09474
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 60.0,
            "ER": 21.0,
            "R": 22.0,
            "H": 59.0,
            "BB": 17.0,
            "SO": 66.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 253.0,
            "Pitches": 959.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 2.1,
            "R": 2.2,
            "H": 5.9,
            "BB": 1.7,
            "SO": 6.6,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 25.3,
            "Pitches": 95.9
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.15,
            "WHIP": 1.2667,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.35,
            "H_per_IP": 0.98333,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.28333,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.1,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.06667
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 30,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 187.1,
            "ER": 58.0,
            "R": 64.0,
            "H": 185.0,
            "BB": 42.0,
            "SO": 210.0,
            "HR": 16.0,
            "BF": 778.0,
            "Pitches": 2862.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.1,
            "ER": 1.9333,
            "R": 2.1333,
            "H": 6.1667,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 7.0,
            "HR": 0.5333,
            "BF": 25.9333,
            "Pitches": 95.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.7865,
            "WHIP": 1.2117,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.30961,
            "H_per_IP": 0.98754,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.2242,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.121,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08541
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.5,
        "predicted_H": 6.345,
        "predicted_BB": 1.634,
        "predicted_SO": 6.294,
        "predicted_HR": 0.575,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.6103,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2801
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4104,
      "form_weight": 0.5896,
      "form_reliability": 0.8571,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 30.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8571,
        "prior_weight": 0.1429
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.1,
          "form": 6.1,
          "final": 6.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.5,
          "final": 1.8844,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 6.345,
          "final": 4.9723,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.634,
          "final": 1.7842,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 6.294,
          "final": 5.763,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.575,
          "final": 0.339,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.6103,
          "final": 3.6103,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2801,
          "final": 1.2801,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 60.0,
        "ER": 21,
        "H": 59,
        "BB": 17,
        "SO": 66,
        "HR": 4,
        "ERA": 3.1499999999999995,
        "WHIP": 1.2666666666666666,
        "K9": 9.899999999999999,
        "HR9": 0.6,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 6,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-09T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8514068753109654,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 30.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8571,
          "prior_weight": 0.1429
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.1,
          "predicted_ER": 1,
          "predicted_H": 3,
          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 6,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "650911",
      "player_name": "Cristopher S\u00e1nchez",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "PHI",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.1,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.3333,
              "after": 6.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0368,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.2,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 1,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.2,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.3333,
              "after": 6.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0368,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.1,
            "predicted_R": 1.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.1,
              "after": 6.1,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.3333,
            "after": 6.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0368,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.2,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 2,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 1,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.2,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.3333,
            "after": 6.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0368,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "PHI",
        "games": 150,
        "wins": 83,
        "losses": 67,
        "win_pct": 0.5533,
        "runs_scored": 675.0,
        "runs_allowed": 644.0,
        "run_differential": 31.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.2067,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2933,
        "offense_index": 1.0015,
        "defense_index": 1.0466,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9,
          "run_differential": -5.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0356
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "WAS",
        "games": 151,
        "wins": 70,
        "losses": 81,
        "win_pct": 0.4636,
        "runs_scored": 772.0,
        "runs_allowed": 769.0,
        "run_differential": 3.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0199,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.1126,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.0927,
        "offense_index": 1.1378,
        "defense_index": 0.8823,
        "current_streak": "W3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.7,
          "run_differential": -20.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0985
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.1341,
        "offense_edge": 0.0015,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.1378,
        "defense_strength": 0.0466,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.1177,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0012,
        "run_prevention": 1.0107,
        "strikeout": 0.993
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "650911",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "650911",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 748.0,
            "k_percent": 27.0,
            "bb_percent": 5.4,
            "woba": 0.295,
            "xwoba": 0.282,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 32.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 41.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.7751,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.3382,
            "whiff_percent": 31.8,
            "swing_percent": 50.5
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 132.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6536,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9166,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.4101,
            "command_and_miss": 0.8514,
            "regression_edge": 0.3714,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.8571,
            "barrel_edge": 0.0,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.4429,
            "whiff_edge": 0.9714,
            "bb_edge": 0.95,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0296
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "650911",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 96,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 96,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.3779172483454,
              "release_spin_rate": 2082.394794219994,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 96,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.3779172483454,
                "release_spin_rate": 2082.394794219994,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.3779,
              "release_spin_rate": 2082.3948,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0296,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.2116,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.4906,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9583,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0674,
          "walk_factor": 0.924,
          "homer_factor": 0.992,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.013,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "650911",
            "espn_id": 42359,
            "player_name": "Cristopher Sanchez",
            "team": "PHI",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 1,
            "espn_total_ranked": 861,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 1,
              "gp_value": 30.0,
              "gp_rank": "225",
              "gs_value": 30.0,
              "gs_rank": "4",
              "qs_value": 20.0,
              "qs_rank": "2",
              "era_value": 2.7864,
              "era_rank": 10.0,
              "w_value": 17.0,
              "w_rank": "1",
              "l_value": 5.0,
              "l_rank": "137",
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": "251",
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": "354",
              "ip_value": 187.1,
              "ip_rank": "2",
              "h_value": 185.0,
              "h_rank": "3",
              "er_value": 58.0,
              "er_rank": "78",
              "hr_value": 16.0,
              "hr_rank": "87",
              "bb_value": 42.0,
              "bb_rank": "74",
              "k_value": 210.0,
              "k_rank": "6",
              "k_per_9_value": 10.088967,
              "k_per_9_rank": 81.0,
              "whip_value": 1.2117,
              "whip_rank": 30.0,
              "war_value": 7.6,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9583,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 0.9583,
            "adjusted": 7
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.924,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.992,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0674,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.1,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 24,
      "Pitches": 97,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +4; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 5",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +5."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: True; actual quality start: False."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260915_PHI@WAS.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260915

20260915_PHI@WAS

home

Jackson Kent

True

4.1

5.0

5/4

3/3

4/4

Last 10 before this game (6 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 6.585365853658537,
      "WHIP": 1.829268292682927,
      "IP": 27.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 6,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.556,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.667,
      "last_start_IP": 3.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.2571,
      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0219,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9884,
      "walk_factor": 1.0567,
      "homer_factor": 1.0349,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 17.8,
      "bb_percent": 15.5,
      "woba": 0.35,
      "xwoba": 0.355,
      "barrel_percent": 8.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 41.9,
      "whiff_percent": 24.7
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 731,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.8653846153846154,
        "last_10": 0.1346153846153846
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 6.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.5455,
        "prior_weight": 0.4545
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "800600",
      "report_date": "20260915",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 6,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 23.1,
            "ER": 17.0,
            "R": 18.0,
            "H": 27.0,
            "BB": 15.0,
            "SO": 17.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 110.0,
            "Pitches": 439.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 3.4,
            "R": 3.6,
            "H": 5.4,
            "BB": 3.0,
            "SO": 3.4,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 22.0,
            "Pitches": 87.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.5571,
            "WHIP": 1.8,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.72857,
            "H_per_IP": 1.15714,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.64286,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.72857,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.04286
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 6,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 27.1,
            "ER": 20.0,
            "R": 21.0,
            "H": 30.0,
            "BB": 20.0,
            "SO": 23.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 129.0,
            "Pitches": 517.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 3.3333,
            "R": 3.5,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 3.3333,
            "SO": 3.8333,
            "HR": 0.1667,
            "BF": 21.5,
            "Pitches": 86.1667
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.5854,
            "WHIP": 1.8293,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.73171,
            "H_per_IP": 1.09756,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.73171,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.84146,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.03659
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 6,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 27.1,
            "ER": 20.0,
            "R": 21.0,
            "H": 30.0,
            "BB": 20.0,
            "SO": 23.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 129.0,
            "Pitches": 517.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 3.3333,
            "R": 3.5,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 3.3333,
            "SO": 3.8333,
            "HR": 0.1667,
            "BF": 21.5,
            "Pitches": 86.1667
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.5854,
            "WHIP": 1.8293,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.73171,
            "H_per_IP": 1.09756,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.73171,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.84146,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.03659
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.2,
        "predicted_ER": 3.028,
        "predicted_H": 5.159,
        "predicted_BB": 2.54,
        "predicted_SO": 4.013,
        "predicted_HR": 0.433,
        "predicted_ERA": 5.656,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.5979
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.542,
      "form_weight": 0.458,
      "form_reliability": 0.5455,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 6.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.5455,
        "prior_weight": 0.4545
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.2,
          "final": 5.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 3.028,
          "final": 2.4708,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 5.159,
          "final": 3.9888,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.54,
          "final": 2.7893,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 4.013,
          "final": 4.006,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.433,
          "final": 0.1983,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 5.656,
          "final": 5.656,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.5979,
          "final": 1.5979,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 27.1,
        "ER": 20,
        "H": 30,
        "BB": 20,
        "SO": 23,
        "HR": 1,
        "ERA": 6.585365853658536,
        "WHIP": 1.8292682926829267,
        "K9": 7.573170731707316,
        "HR9": 0.3292682926829268,
        "games_pitched": 6,
        "quality_starts": 1,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": true
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 6,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 6,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-09T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.2268138351554825,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 6.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.5455,
          "prior_weight": 0.4545
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.1,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 3,
          "predicted_BB": 3,
          "predicted_SO": 4,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_quality_floor",
        "description": "Weak starter floor restored expected damage from recent form instead of assigning it to zero-inning bullpen rows.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.1,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 5,
          "predicted_BB": 3,
          "predicted_SO": 4,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "800600",
      "player_name": "Jackson Kent",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "WAS",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
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            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
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            },
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            },
            {
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          ],
          "summary": {
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "starter_quality_floor",
          "description": "Weak starter floor restored expected damage from recent form instead of assigning it to zero-inning bullpen rows.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.1,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            {
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            },
            {
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              "percent_delta": 0.6667,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            },
            {
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            }
          ],
          "summary": {
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            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 4,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            },
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            },
            {
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            },
            {
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              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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            "direction": "boost",
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          },
          {
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            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            "percent_delta": -0.18,
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            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
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          "boosted_metrics": 2,
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          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
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            "percent_delta": -0.18,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "WAS",
        "games": 151,
        "wins": 70,
        "losses": 81,
        "win_pct": 0.4636,
        "runs_scored": 772.0,
        "runs_allowed": 769.0,
        "run_differential": 3.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0199,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.1126,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.0927,
        "offense_index": 1.1378,
        "defense_index": 0.8823,
        "current_streak": "W3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.7,
          "run_differential": -20.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0985
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "PHI",
        "games": 150,
        "wins": 83,
        "losses": 67,
        "win_pct": 0.5533,
        "runs_scored": 675.0,
        "runs_allowed": 644.0,
        "run_differential": 31.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.2067,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2933,
        "offense_index": 1.0015,
        "defense_index": 1.0466,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9,
          "run_differential": -5.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0356
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.1341,
        "offense_edge": 0.1378,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0015,
        "defense_strength": -0.1177,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0466,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.991,
        "run_prevention": 1.0187,
        "strikeout": 0.9959
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "800600",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "800600",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 112.0,
            "k_percent": 17.8,
            "bb_percent": 15.5,
            "woba": 0.35,
            "xwoba": 0.355,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.7,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 41.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.4886,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.3915,
            "whiff_percent": 24.7,
            "swing_percent": 45.5
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 132.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6536,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9166,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.7032,
            "command_and_miss": -0.6,
            "regression_edge": -0.1429,
            "xwoba_edge": -1.2286,
            "barrel_edge": -0.2222,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.5714,
            "whiff_edge": -0.0429,
            "bb_edge": -1.575,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0898
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "800600",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 89,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 89,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.24469561877434,
              "release_spin_rate": 2157.482127703858,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 89,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.24469561877434,
                "release_spin_rate": 2157.482127703858,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.2447,
              "release_spin_rate": 2157.4821,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0898,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.6417,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.2571,
          "sample_weight": 0.45,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0219,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9884,
          "walk_factor": 1.0567,
          "homer_factor": 1.0349,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.005,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "800600",
            "espn_id": 5007807,
            "player_name": "Jackson Kent",
            "team": "WSH",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 731,
            "espn_total_ranked": 861,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 731,
              "gp_value": 6.0,
              "gp_rank": "614",
              "gs_value": 6.0,
              "gs_rank": "208",
              "qs_value": 1.0,
              "qs_rank": "178",
              "era_value": 6.5853,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 1.0,
              "w_rank": "414",
              "l_value": 4.0,
              "l_rank": "190",
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": "251",
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": "354",
              "ip_value": 27.1,
              "ip_rank": "457",
              "h_value": 30.0,
              "h_rank": "420",
              "er_value": 20.0,
              "er_rank": "328",
              "hr_value": 1.0,
              "hr_rank": "617",
              "bb_value": 20.0,
              "bb_rank": "304",
              "k_value": 23.0,
              "k_rank": "463",
              "k_per_9_value": 7.5731707,
              "k_per_9_rank": 27.0,
              "whip_value": 1.8292,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": -0.34,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0099,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0099,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0255,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.0157,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9948,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.1,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 94,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 6 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260915_PHI@WAS.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260915

20260915_SD@COL

away

Walker Buehler

True

5.1

4.2

-2

-1

3/7

2/1

3/1

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.6081730769230775,
      "WHIP": 1.3557692307692308,
      "IP": 138.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 29,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.782,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.867,
      "last_start_IP": 2.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.1243,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0106,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9629,
      "walk_factor": 0.996,
      "homer_factor": 1.0283,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 20.6,
      "bb_percent": 9.0,
      "woba": 0.328,
      "xwoba": 0.314,
      "barrel_percent": 8.4,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.5,
      "whiff_percent": 19.9
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 216,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 29.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8529,
        "prior_weight": 0.1471
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "621111",
      "report_date": "20260915",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 29,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 24.1,
            "ER": 9.0,
            "R": 9.0,
            "H": 19.0,
            "BB": 6.0,
            "SO": 21.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 91.0,
            "Pitches": 379.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 1.8,
            "H": 3.8,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 4.2,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 18.2,
            "Pitches": 75.8
          },
          "rates": {
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        },
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          "per_game": {
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        },
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        "predicted_ER": {
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        },
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        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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          "final": 3.7096,
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        "predicted_WHIP": {
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    "recent_form_analysis": {
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      "pitching": {
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-09T00:00:00"
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    "recent_form_boost": 0.8625128596510102,
    "stat_evolution": [
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        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "621111",
      "player_name": "Walker Buehler",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "SD",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [],
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          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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          ],
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
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          {
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          {
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          {
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        ],
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          "biggest_deboost": null,
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "SD",
        "games": 150,
        "wins": 82,
        "losses": 68,
        "win_pct": 0.5467,
        "runs_scored": 647.0,
        "runs_allowed": 624.0,
        "run_differential": 23.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1533,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3133,
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          "run_differential": 13.0
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        "available": true,
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      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "COL",
        "games": 150,
        "wins": 55,
        "losses": 95,
        "win_pct": 0.3667,
        "runs_scored": 703.0,
        "runs_allowed": 873.0,
        "run_differential": -170.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.1333,
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        "recent": {
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          "win_pct": 0.1,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 7.8,
          "run_differential": -30.0
        },
        "available": true,
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      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.5906,
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      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0243,
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      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "621111",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "621111",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 571.0,
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            "xwoba": 0.314,
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            "avg_best_speed": 79.062,
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          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 132.0,
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            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
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            "avg_best_speed": 77.6536,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9166,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
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          "components": {
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            "regression_edge": 0.4,
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            "hard_hit_edge": -0.0857,
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            "bb_edge": 0.05,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0013
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "621111",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 83,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 83,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.82523808865908,
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              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
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              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
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            "pitch_mix": [
              {
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                "pitches": 83,
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                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
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            "components": {
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              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
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          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0106,
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            "player_name": "Walker Buehler",
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            "espn_rank": 216,
            "espn_total_ranked": 861,
            "metrics": {
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              "sv_rank": "251",
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              "ip_value": 138.2,
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              "h_rank": "50",
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              "er_rank": "27",
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              "k_rank": "67",
              "k_per_9_value": 7.8533654,
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              "whip_value": 1.3557,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.74,
              "war_rank": null
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            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
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            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0106,
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          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
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    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
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      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 3,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 96,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
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  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +4."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260915_SD@COL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260915

20260915_SD@COL

home

Kyle Freeland

True

4.2

4.0

-2

-4

11/8

2/0

5/1

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
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                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.1021,
              "release_spin_rate": 2262.0656,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1538,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.0987,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.4537,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0386,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9663,
          "walk_factor": 0.918,
          "homer_factor": 1.1171,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.025,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "607536",
            "espn_id": 33839,
            "player_name": "Kyle Freeland",
            "team": "COL",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 538,
            "espn_total_ranked": 861,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 538,
              "gp_value": 23.0,
              "gp_rank": "353",
              "gs_value": 23.0,
              "gs_rank": "81",
              "qs_value": 4.0,
              "qs_rank": "125",
              "era_value": 6.3699,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 4.0,
              "w_rank": "192",
              "l_value": 10.0,
              "l_rank": "21",
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": "251",
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": "354",
              "ip_value": 124.1,
              "ip_rank": "88",
              "h_value": 153.0,
              "h_rank": "17",
              "er_value": 88.0,
              "er_rank": "5",
              "hr_value": 24.0,
              "hr_rank": "15",
              "bb_value": 28.0,
              "bb_rank": "191",
              "k_value": 103.0,
              "k_rank": "97",
              "k_per_9_value": 7.4557643,
              "k_per_9_rank": 29.0,
              "whip_value": 1.4557,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": -0.05,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0386,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0386,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.918,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.1171,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9663,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.2,
      "predicted_H": 11,
      "predicted_R": 8,
      "predicted_ER": 8,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 27,
      "Pitches": 109,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -4; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was +2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260915_SD@COL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260915

20260915_SEA@LAA

away

Logan Gilbert

True

5.2

6.0

5/6

2/2

8/7

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.7151162790697674,
      "WHIP": 1.052325581395349,
      "IP": 172.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 29,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.931,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.333,
      "last_start_IP": 7.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.2298,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9805,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0606,
      "walk_factor": 0.944,
      "homer_factor": 1.0605,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 27.3,
      "bb_percent": 6.4,
      "woba": 0.296,
      "xwoba": 0.295,
      "barrel_percent": 10.2,
      "hard_hit_percent": 41.4,
      "whiff_percent": 30.3
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 40,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 29.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8529,
        "prior_weight": 0.1471
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "669302",
      "report_date": "20260915",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 29,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 26.2,
            "ER": 18.0,
            "R": 18.0,
            "H": 26.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 35.0,
            "HR": 8.0,
            "BF": 115.0,
            "Pitches": 488.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 3.6,
            "R": 3.6,
            "H": 5.2,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 7.0,
            "HR": 1.6,
            "BF": 23.0,
            "Pitches": 97.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.075,
            "WHIP": 1.3875,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.675,
            "H_per_IP": 0.975,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.4125,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.3125,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.3
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 58.0,
            "ER": 29.0,
            "R": 29.0,
            "H": 48.0,
            "BB": 20.0,
            "SO": 68.0,
            "HR": 13.0,
            "BF": 237.0,
            "Pitches": 962.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.9,
            "R": 2.9,
            "H": 4.8,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 6.8,
            "HR": 1.3,
            "BF": 23.7,
            "Pitches": 96.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.5,
            "WHIP": 1.1724,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.5,
            "H_per_IP": 0.82759,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.34483,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.17241,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.22414
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 29,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 172.0,
            "ER": 71.0,
            "R": 71.0,
            "H": 137.0,
            "BB": 44.0,
            "SO": 187.0,
            "HR": 27.0,
            "BF": 686.0,
            "Pitches": 2745.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 2.4483,
            "R": 2.4483,
            "H": 4.7241,
            "BB": 1.5172,
            "SO": 6.4483,
            "HR": 0.931,
            "BF": 23.6552,
            "Pitches": 94.6552
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.7151,
            "WHIP": 1.0523,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.41279,
            "H_per_IP": 0.79651,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.25581,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.08721,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15698
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 3.097,
        "predicted_H": 5.04,
        "predicted_BB": 2.014,
        "predicted_SO": 6.588,
        "predicted_HR": 1.29,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.9809,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2607
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4121,
      "form_weight": 0.5879,
      "form_reliability": 0.8529,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 29.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8529,
        "prior_weight": 0.1471
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 3.097,
          "final": 2.2327,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.04,
          "final": 5.0235,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.014,
          "final": 2.0082,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 8.0,
          "form": 6.588,
          "final": 7.17,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.29,
          "final": 0.7583,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.9809,
          "final": 4.9809,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2607,
          "final": 1.2607,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 58.0,
        "ER": 29,
        "H": 48,
        "BB": 20,
        "SO": 68,
        "HR": 13,
        "ERA": 4.5,
        "WHIP": 1.1724137931034482,
        "K9": 10.551724137931034,
        "HR9": 2.0172413793103448,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 5,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-10T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.000925553471885,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 8.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 29.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8529,
          "prior_weight": 0.1471
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.2,
          "predicted_ER": 1,
          "predicted_H": 5,
          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 8,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "669302",
      "player_name": "Logan Gilbert",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "SEA",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_R": 1.0,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.2,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 8.0,
            "after": 8.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "SEA",
        "games": 151,
        "wins": 70,
        "losses": 81,
        "win_pct": 0.4636,
        "runs_scored": 616.0,
        "runs_allowed": 676.0,
        "run_differential": -60.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3974,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0795,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4768,
        "offense_index": 0.9066,
        "defense_index": 1.0051,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9,
          "run_differential": 8.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1145
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "LAA",
        "games": 150,
        "wins": 57,
        "losses": 93,
        "win_pct": 0.38,
        "runs_scored": 610.0,
        "runs_allowed": 684.0,
        "run_differential": -74.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.4933,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0667,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.56,
        "offense_index": 0.9037,
        "defense_index": 0.9868,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.3,
          "run_differential": 6.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1973
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0828,
        "offense_edge": -0.0934,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0963,
        "defense_strength": 0.0051,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0132,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0073,
        "run_prevention": 0.9799,
        "strikeout": 1.0102
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "669302",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "669302",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 656.0,
            "k_percent": 27.3,
            "bb_percent": 6.4,
            "woba": 0.296,
            "xwoba": 0.295,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 36.7,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 10.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 41.4,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.0168,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.4102,
            "whiff_percent": 30.3,
            "swing_percent": 50.3
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 132.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6536,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9166,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.0602,
            "command_and_miss": 0.7457,
            "regression_edge": 0.0286,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.4857,
            "barrel_edge": -0.6889,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.5,
            "whiff_edge": 0.7571,
            "bb_edge": 0.7,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0086
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "669302",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 96,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 96,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.69530475777378,
              "release_spin_rate": 1936.1985498440918,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 96,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.69530475777378,
                "release_spin_rate": 1936.1985498440918,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.6953,
              "release_spin_rate": 1936.1985,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0086,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.0614,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.2298,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9805,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0606,
          "walk_factor": 0.944,
          "homer_factor": 1.0605,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.001,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "669302",
            "espn_id": 41221,
            "player_name": "Logan Gilbert",
            "team": "SEA",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 40,
            "espn_total_ranked": 861,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 40,
              "gp_value": 29.0,
              "gp_rank": "244",
              "gs_value": 29.0,
              "gs_rank": "14",
              "qs_value": 13.0,
              "qs_rank": "31",
              "era_value": 3.7151,
              "era_rank": 24.0,
              "w_value": 12.0,
              "w_rank": "17",
              "l_value": 9.0,
              "l_rank": "32",
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": "251",
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": "354",
              "ip_value": 172.0,
              "ip_rank": "9",
              "h_value": 137.0,
              "h_rank": "45",
              "er_value": 71.0,
              "er_rank": "27",
              "hr_value": 27.0,
              "hr_rank": "7",
              "bb_value": 44.0,
              "bb_rank": "68",
              "k_value": 187.0,
              "k_rank": "11",
              "k_per_9_value": 9.7848835,
              "k_per_9_rank": 33.0,
              "whip_value": 1.0523,
              "whip_rank": 10.0,
              "war_value": 2.86,
              "war_rank": 25.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9805,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9805,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.944,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0605,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 1.0606,
            "adjusted": 7
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 8,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 24,
      "Pitches": 106,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260915_SEA@LAA.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260915

20260915_SEA@LAA

home

Ryan Johnson

True

5.1

6.0

-4

7/6

2/0

6/7

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "ERA": 5.122529644268775,
      "WHIP": 1.3636363636363638,
      "IP": 84.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 19,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.958,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.867,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.4806,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0408,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9611,
      "walk_factor": 1.03,
      "homer_factor": 1.0782,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 17.4,
      "bb_percent": 10.7,
      "woba": 0.336,
      "xwoba": 0.347,
      "barrel_percent": 10.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 37.0,
      "whiff_percent": 22.8
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 635,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 19.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7917,
        "prior_weight": 0.2083
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "696270",
      "report_date": "20260915",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 19,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 29.1,
            "ER": 7.0,
            "R": 7.0,
            "H": 17.0,
            "BB": 12.0,
            "SO": 20.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 114.0,
            "Pitches": 453.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.4,
            "R": 1.4,
            "H": 3.4,
            "BB": 2.4,
            "SO": 4.0,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 22.8,
            "Pitches": 90.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.1477,
            "WHIP": 0.9886,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.23864,
            "H_per_IP": 0.57955,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.40909,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.68182,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13636
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 51.0,
            "ER": 23.0,
            "R": 23.0,
            "H": 39.0,
            "BB": 26.0,
            "SO": 38.0,
            "HR": 9.0,
            "BF": 214.0,
            "Pitches": 863.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.3,
            "R": 2.3,
            "H": 3.9,
            "BB": 2.6,
            "SO": 3.8,
            "HR": 0.9,
            "BF": 21.4,
            "Pitches": 86.3
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.0588,
            "WHIP": 1.2745,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.45098,
            "H_per_IP": 0.76471,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.5098,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.7451,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.17647
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 19,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 84.1,
            "ER": 48.0,
            "R": 53.0,
            "H": 76.0,
            "BB": 39.0,
            "SO": 63.0,
            "HR": 18.0,
            "BF": 363.0,
            "Pitches": 1455.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 2.5263,
            "R": 2.7895,
            "H": 4.0,
            "BB": 2.0526,
            "SO": 3.3158,
            "HR": 0.9474,
            "BF": 19.1053,
            "Pitches": 76.5789
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.1225,
            "WHIP": 1.3636,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.56917,
            "H_per_IP": 0.90119,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.46245,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.74704,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.21344
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.159,
        "predicted_H": 4.067,
        "predicted_BB": 2.331,
        "predicted_SO": 4.062,
        "predicted_HR": 0.862,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.6528,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2026
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.438,
      "form_weight": 0.562,
      "form_reliability": 0.7917,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_size": 19.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7917,
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      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.1,
          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 2.159,
          "final": 3.4034,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 4.067,
          "final": 5.3517,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.331,
          "final": 2.186,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 4.062,
          "final": 4.9109,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 0.862,
          "final": 1.3605,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.6528,
          "final": 3.6528,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2026,
          "final": 1.2026,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 51.0,
        "ER": 23,
        "H": 39,
        "BB": 26,
        "SO": 38,
        "HR": 9,
        "ERA": 4.0588235294117645,
        "WHIP": 1.2745098039215685,
        "K9": 6.705882352941177,
        "HR9": 1.588235294117647,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-09T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9538456008011615,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 5.0,
          "predicted_H": 7.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 6.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 19.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7917,
          "prior_weight": 0.2083
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "696270",
      "player_name": "Ryan Johnson",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "LAA",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.1,
            "predicted_R": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0438,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0438,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 7.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0437,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0437,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "LAA",
        "games": 150,
        "wins": 57,
        "losses": 93,
        "win_pct": 0.38,
        "runs_scored": 610.0,
        "runs_allowed": 684.0,
        "run_differential": -74.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.4933,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0667,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.56,
        "offense_index": 0.9037,
        "defense_index": 0.9868,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.3,
          "run_differential": 6.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1973
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "SEA",
        "games": 151,
        "wins": 70,
        "losses": 81,
        "win_pct": 0.4636,
        "runs_scored": 616.0,
        "runs_allowed": 676.0,
        "run_differential": -60.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3974,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0795,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4768,
        "offense_index": 0.9066,
        "defense_index": 1.0051,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9,
          "run_differential": 8.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1145
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0828,
        "offense_edge": -0.0963,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0934,
        "defense_strength": -0.0132,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0051,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0,
        "run_prevention": 0.9905,
        "strikeout": 1.005
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "696270",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "696270",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 338.0,
            "k_percent": 17.4,
            "bb_percent": 10.7,
            "woba": 0.336,
            "xwoba": 0.347,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 31.9,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 10.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.0545,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.7219,
            "whiff_percent": 22.8,
            "swing_percent": 45.5
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 132.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6536,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9166,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.5564,
            "command_and_miss": -0.4807,
            "regression_edge": -0.3143,
            "xwoba_edge": -1.0,
            "barrel_edge": -0.6667,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.1286,
            "whiff_edge": -0.3143,
            "bb_edge": -0.375,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.1571
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "696270",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 86,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 86,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 87.04306695722545,
              "release_spin_rate": 2286.6017564680933,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 86,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 87.04306695722545,
                "release_spin_rate": 2286.6017564680933,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.0431,
              "release_spin_rate": 2286.6018,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1571,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.1223,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.4806,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0408,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9611,
          "walk_factor": 1.03,
          "homer_factor": 1.0782,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.011,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "696270",
            "espn_id": 5007859,
            "player_name": "Ryan Johnson",
            "team": "LAA",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 635,
            "espn_total_ranked": 861,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 635,
              "gp_value": 19.0,
              "gp_rank": "407",
              "gs_value": 16.0,
              "gs_rank": "132",
              "qs_value": 4.0,
              "qs_rank": "125",
              "era_value": 5.1225,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 4.0,
              "w_rank": "192",
              "l_value": 8.0,
              "l_rank": "64",
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": "251",
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": "354",
              "ip_value": 84.1,
              "ip_rank": "155",
              "h_value": 76.0,
              "h_rank": "154",
              "er_value": 48.0,
              "er_rank": "120",
              "hr_value": 18.0,
              "hr_rank": "62",
              "bb_value": 39.0,
              "bb_rank": "96",
              "k_value": 63.0,
              "k_rank": "215",
              "k_per_9_value": 6.7233205,
              "k_per_9_rank": 37.0,
              "whip_value": 1.3636,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": -0.16,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0408,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0408,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.03,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0782,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9611,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 7,
      "predicted_R": 5,
      "predicted_ER": 5,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 25,
      "Pitches": 99,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -4; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260915_SEA@LAA.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260915

20260915_SF@STL

away

Blade Tidwell

True

5.0

6.2

-2

1/3

5/1

5/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.821428571428572,
      "WHIP": 1.2857142857142858,
      "IP": 46.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 15,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.952,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.8,
      "last_start_IP": 4.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.1476,
      "sample_weight": 0.704,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0125,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9779,
      "walk_factor": 1.0141,
      "homer_factor": 1.0406,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 19.3,
      "bb_percent": 10.2,
      "woba": 0.317,
      "xwoba": 0.324,
      "barrel_percent": 9.7,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.1,
      "whiff_percent": 22.2
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 479,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 15.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.75,
        "prior_weight": 0.25
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "694918",
      "report_date": "20260915",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 15,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 24.0,
            "ER": 18.0,
            "R": 19.0,
            "H": 20.0,
            "BB": 15.0,
            "SO": 19.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 106.0,
            "Pitches": 429.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 3.6,
            "R": 3.8,
            "H": 4.0,
            "BB": 3.0,
            "SO": 3.8,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 21.2,
            "Pitches": 85.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.75,
            "WHIP": 1.4583,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.75,
            "H_per_IP": 0.83333,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.625,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.79167,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.20833
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 39.2,
            "ER": 23.0,
            "R": 24.0,
            "H": 35.0,
            "BB": 19.0,
            "SO": 32.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 172.0,
            "Pitches": 707.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.0,
            "ER": 2.3,
            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 3.5,
            "BB": 1.9,
            "SO": 3.2,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 17.2,
            "Pitches": 70.7
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.2185,
            "WHIP": 1.3613,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.57983,
            "H_per_IP": 0.88235,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.47899,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.80672,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12605
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 15,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 46.2,
            "ER": 25.0,
            "R": 26.0,
            "H": 40.0,
            "BB": 20.0,
            "SO": 38.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 197.0,
            "Pitches": 807.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.0,
            "ER": 1.6667,
            "R": 1.7333,
            "H": 2.6667,
            "BB": 1.3333,
            "SO": 2.5333,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 13.1333,
            "Pitches": 53.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.8214,
            "WHIP": 1.2857,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.53571,
            "H_per_IP": 0.85714,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.42857,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.81429,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12857
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.65,
        "predicted_H": 3.83,
        "predicted_BB": 2.139,
        "predicted_SO": 3.616,
        "predicted_HR": 0.69,
        "predicted_ERA": 5.5137,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.38
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4556,
      "form_weight": 0.5444,
      "form_reliability": 0.75,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 15.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.75,
        "prior_weight": 0.25
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.1,
          "final": 4.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.65,
          "final": 3.2651,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 3.83,
          "final": 2.5406,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 2.139,
          "final": 3.4425,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 3.616,
          "final": 4.2466,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.69,
          "final": 0.3756,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 5.5137,
          "final": 5.5137,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.38,
          "final": 1.38,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 39.2,
        "ER": 23,
        "H": 35,
        "BB": 19,
        "SO": 32,
        "HR": 5,
        "ERA": 5.218487394957982,
        "WHIP": 1.3613445378151259,
        "K9": 7.260504201680671,
        "HR9": 1.134453781512605,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-09T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.08647865402245,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 1.0,
          "predicted_BB": 5.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 15.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.75,
          "prior_weight": 0.25
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "694918",
      "player_name": "Blade Tidwell",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "SF",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 5.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 1.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 5.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 1.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 0,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 0,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "SF",
        "games": 151,
        "wins": 62,
        "losses": 89,
        "win_pct": 0.4106,
        "runs_scored": 633.0,
        "runs_allowed": 711.0,
        "run_differential": -78.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.5166,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1921,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7086,
        "offense_index": 0.934,
        "defense_index": 0.9532,
        "current_streak": "L4",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.2,
          "run_differential": -5.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1743
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "STL",
        "games": 151,
        "wins": 75,
        "losses": 76,
        "win_pct": 0.4967,
        "runs_scored": 685.0,
        "runs_allowed": 691.0,
        "run_differential": -6.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.0397,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5364,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5762,
        "offense_index": 1.0107,
        "defense_index": 0.9808,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9,
          "run_differential": 3.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0077
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.1666,
        "offense_edge": -0.066,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0107,
        "defense_strength": -0.0468,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0192,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9915,
        "run_prevention": 1.0147,
        "strikeout": 0.9941
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "694918",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "694918",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 176.0,
            "k_percent": 19.3,
            "bb_percent": 10.2,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.324,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 28.4,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 9.7,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.1,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.1473,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9607,
            "whiff_percent": 22.2,
            "swing_percent": 44.1
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 132.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6536,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9166,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.1662,
            "command_and_miss": -0.3636,
            "regression_edge": -0.2,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.3429,
            "barrel_edge": -0.5778,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.0286,
            "whiff_edge": -0.4,
            "bb_edge": -0.25,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.026
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "694918",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 89,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 89,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.3845654173041,
              "release_spin_rate": 2460.0556825721287,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 89,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.3845654173041,
                "release_spin_rate": 2460.0556825721287,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.3846,
              "release_spin_rate": 2460.0557,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.026,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.1857,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.1476,
          "sample_weight": 0.704,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0125,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9779,
          "walk_factor": 1.0141,
          "homer_factor": 1.0406,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.007,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "694918",
            "espn_id": 4719088,
            "player_name": "Blade Tidwell",
            "team": "SF",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 479,
            "espn_total_ranked": 861,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 479,
              "gp_value": 15.0,
              "gp_rank": "459",
              "gs_value": 7.0,
              "gs_rank": "200",
              "qs_value": 0.0,
              "qs_rank": "210",
              "era_value": 4.8214,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 0.0,
              "w_rank": "538",
              "l_value": 2.0,
              "l_rank": "332",
              "sv_value": 1.0,
              "sv_rank": "140",
              "hld_value": 1.0,
              "hld_rank": "272",
              "ip_value": 46.2,
              "ip_rank": "327",
              "h_value": 40.0,
              "h_rank": "328",
              "er_value": 25.0,
              "er_rank": "245",
              "hr_value": 6.0,
              "hr_rank": "273",
              "bb_value": 20.0,
              "bb_rank": "304",
              "k_value": 38.0,
              "k_rank": "366",
              "k_per_9_value": 7.328572,
              "k_per_9_rank": 30.0,
              "whip_value": 1.2857,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.01,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0088,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0088,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0099,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0286,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9844,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 1,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 5,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 98,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -4."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260915_SF@STL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260915

20260915_SF@STL

home

Andre Pallante

True

5.2

5.0

-2

5/8

2/2

5/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "ERA": 3.452054794520548,
      "WHIP": 1.2328767123287672,
      "IP": 146.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 26,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.615,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.467,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.073,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9938,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9503,
      "walk_factor": 0.966,
      "homer_factor": 0.9332,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 16.9,
      "bb_percent": 7.5,
      "woba": 0.297,
      "xwoba": 0.305,
      "barrel_percent": 4.9,
      "hard_hit_percent": 34.1,
      "whiff_percent": 21.4
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 49,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 26.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8387,
        "prior_weight": 0.1613
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "669467",
      "report_date": "20260915",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 26,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 27.1,
            "ER": 7.0,
            "R": 7.0,
            "H": 24.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 16.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 106.0,
            "Pitches": 448.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 1.4,
            "R": 1.4,
            "H": 4.8,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 3.2,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 21.2,
            "Pitches": 89.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.3049,
            "WHIP": 1.2805,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.2561,
            "H_per_IP": 0.87805,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.40244,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.58537,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 56.2,
            "ER": 18.0,
            "R": 18.0,
            "H": 51.0,
            "BB": 19.0,
            "SO": 34.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 228.0,
            "Pitches": 915.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 1.8,
            "H": 5.1,
            "BB": 1.9,
            "SO": 3.4,
            "HR": 0.1,
            "BF": 22.8,
            "Pitches": 91.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.8588,
            "WHIP": 1.2353,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.31765,
            "H_per_IP": 0.9,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.33529,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.6,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.01765
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 26,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 146.0,
            "ER": 56.0,
            "R": 58.0,
            "H": 135.0,
            "BB": 45.0,
            "SO": 102.0,
            "HR": 10.0,
            "BF": 602.0,
            "Pitches": 2363.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.1538,
            "R": 2.2308,
            "H": 5.1923,
            "BB": 1.7308,
            "SO": 3.9231,
            "HR": 0.3846,
            "BF": 23.1538,
            "Pitches": 90.8846
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.4521,
            "WHIP": 1.2329,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.38356,
            "H_per_IP": 0.92466,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.30822,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.69863,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.06849
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 1.863,
        "predicted_H": 5.032,
        "predicted_BB": 2.008,
        "predicted_SO": 3.689,
        "predicted_HR": 0.224,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.0253,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2706
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4181,
      "form_weight": 0.5819,
      "form_reliability": 0.8387,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 26.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8387,
        "prior_weight": 0.1613
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 1.863,
          "final": 2.7566,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.032,
          "final": 5.0186,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.008,
          "final": 2.0047,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 3.689,
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          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 0.224,
          "final": 0.9666,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.0253,
          "final": 3.0253,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2706,
          "final": 1.2706,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
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        "2B": 0,
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        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 56.2,
        "ER": 18,
        "H": 51,
        "BB": 19,
        "SO": 34,
        "HR": 1,
        "ERA": 2.8588235294117648,
        "WHIP": 1.2352941176470589,
        "K9": 5.4,
        "HR9": 0.15882352941176472,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-09T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8178652086442988,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
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          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
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        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 26.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8387,
          "prior_weight": 0.1613
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "669467",
      "player_name": "Andre Pallante",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "STL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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          },
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
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          {
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          {
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          {
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
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        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
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            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "STL",
        "games": 151,
        "wins": 75,
        "losses": 76,
        "win_pct": 0.4967,
        "runs_scored": 685.0,
        "runs_allowed": 691.0,
        "run_differential": -6.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.0397,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5364,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5762,
        "offense_index": 1.0107,
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        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
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          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9,
          "run_differential": 3.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0077
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "SF",
        "games": 151,
        "wins": 62,
        "losses": 89,
        "win_pct": 0.4106,
        "runs_scored": 633.0,
        "runs_allowed": 711.0,
        "run_differential": -78.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.5166,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1921,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7086,
        "offense_index": 0.934,
        "defense_index": 0.9532,
        "current_streak": "L4",
        "recent": {
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          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.2,
          "run_differential": -5.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1743
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.1666,
        "offense_edge": 0.0107,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.066,
        "defense_strength": -0.0192,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0468,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0087,
        "run_prevention": 0.983,
        "strikeout": 1.0103
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "669467",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "669467",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 580.0,
            "k_percent": 16.9,
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            "woba": 0.297,
            "xwoba": 0.305,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 31.2,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 4.9,
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            "avg_best_speed": 75.5214,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.4608,
            "whiff_percent": 21.4,
            "swing_percent": 44.9
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          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 132.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6536,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9166,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.3667,
            "command_and_miss": -0.4229,
            "regression_edge": -0.2286,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.2,
            "barrel_edge": 0.4889,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.5429,
            "whiff_edge": -0.5143,
            "bb_edge": 0.425,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0051
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "669467",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 90,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 90,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.94053557792428,
              "release_spin_rate": 2285.0380996718536,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 90,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.94053557792428,
                "release_spin_rate": 2285.0380996718536,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.9405,
              "release_spin_rate": 2285.0381,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
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              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0051,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
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              "velocity_edge": 0.0367,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.073,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9938,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9503,
          "walk_factor": 0.966,
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          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.008,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "669467",
            "espn_id": 4109034,
            "player_name": "Andre Pallante",
            "team": "STL",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 49,
            "espn_total_ranked": 861,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 49,
              "gp_value": 26.0,
              "gp_rank": "313",
              "gs_value": 26.0,
              "gs_rank": "56",
              "qs_value": 9.0,
              "qs_rank": "66",
              "era_value": 3.452,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 12.0,
              "w_rank": "17",
              "l_value": 6.0,
              "l_rank": "114",
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": "251",
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": "354",
              "ip_value": 146.0,
              "ip_rank": "53",
              "h_value": 135.0,
              "h_rank": "50",
              "er_value": 56.0,
              "er_rank": "89",
              "hr_value": 10.0,
              "hr_rank": "164",
              "bb_value": 45.0,
              "bb_rank": "65",
              "k_value": 102.0,
              "k_rank": "99",
              "k_per_9_value": 6.2876716,
              "k_per_9_rank": 50.0,
              "whip_value": 1.2328,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 2.67,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9938,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9938,
            "adjusted": 5
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          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.966,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9332,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9503,
            "adjusted": 4
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 24,
      "Pitches": 100,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260915_SF@STL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}