Continuous postgame learning

daily_20260914 · dates 20260914 · generated 2026-09-15T09:00:17.213805+00:00

7-3

Winner picks · 70.0%

Comparable starters · 0 identity mismatches

9/20

Starter ER within ±1

13/20

Starter workload within ±1 inning

Slate coverage

Every calendar day in the requested window is listed. Pending means the prediction exists but the official final result has not settled; Missing review artifact identifies a data gap instead of hiding the day.

Date	Games	Settled	Pending	Hits	Misses	Calibration traces	Review status	Pipeline versions
20260914	10	10	0	7	3	10	Available	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Prioritized optimization roadmap

Runtime evidence for the six recommendations. “Observed games” counts artifacts generated with the relevant trace; older artifacts remain honestly blank.

Priority	Change	Status	Observed games	Evidence
P1	Empirical Confidence Blend	Implemented And Applied	10	applied games: 10formula: w_emp=min(0.5,sample_size/200); final=(1-w_emp)raw+w_empempirical_hit_rate
P1	H2H Base Feature	Implemented And Monitored	10	available games: 9
P2	Score Distribution Widening	Implemented Above 1.4X	10	variance multipliers: [1.85]
P2	Simulation Flip Control	Diagnostic Only Without Independent Support	10	simulation flip candidates: 0published flips: 0
P3	Recent Form Quality Blend	Implemented Last 10	10	configured window: 10last 10 games: 10observed windows: [10]
P3	Continuous Calibration Audit	Implemented	10	settled games: 10metric: bucket_calibration_error

Confidence calibration by bucket

bucket_calibration_error = average published confidence − observed hit rate. Positive means overconfident; negative means underconfident. Weighted absolute error: 0.2812.

Bucket	Games	Average confidence	Observed hit rate	Calibration error	Direction
0.50-0.55	6	51.4%	66.7%	-15.2%	underconfident
0.55-0.60	3	57.7%	100.0%	-42.3%	underconfident
0.60-0.65	1	62.7%	0.0%	62.7%	overconfident

Where the score pipeline gained or lost quality

Direct comparison against official final runs. Positive deltas mean the stage was worse than historical_ml; this is score error, not a synthetic one-game ERA.

Stage	Games	Team-run MAE	Total-run MAE	Margin MAE	Winner accuracy	Δ team MAE vs base	Δ margin MAE vs base
historical_ml	10	2.0828	3.3433	1.8811	60.0%	0.0	0.0
variance_applied	10	1.95	3.3	1.7	50.0%	-0.1328	-0.1811
enhanced_prediction	10	2.1	3.4	2.0	70.0%	0.0172	0.1189
embedded_savant_run_environment	10	2.15	3.3	2.3	60.0%	0.0672	0.4189
fundamental_edge_target_review	10	2.1	3.4	2.2	70.0%	0.0172	0.3189
capped_target	10	2.1	3.4	2.2	70.0%	0.0172	0.3189
simulation_result	10	2.1	3.4	2.2	70.0%	0.0172	0.3189
published_final	10	2.1	3.4	2.2	70.0%	0.0172	0.3189

Largest measured regression

{
  "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
  "games": 10,
  "team_run_mae": 2.15,
  "total_run_mae": 3.3,
  "margin_mae": 2.3,
  "winner_hits": 6,
  "winner_accuracy": 0.6,
  "team_run_mae_delta_vs_historical_ml": 0.0672,
  "margin_mae_delta_vs_historical_ml": 0.4189
}

Automatic questions

Which recorded score stage reinforced losing picks?

partial_attribution sample=3

Largest positive recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. Positive, negative, net, absolute, and unchanged movements are shown separately so opposite games cannot cancel into a misleading zero. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution.

Stage	Positive Toward Pick Run Delta	Negative Away From Pick Run Delta	Net Toward Pick Run Delta	Absolute Run Movement	Games Recorded	Games Supporting Pick	Games Opposing Pick	Games Unchanged	Meaning
enhanced_prediction	5.0	0.0	5.0	5.0	3	3	0	0	reinforced final pick
variance_applied	0.6672	-0.9175	-0.2503	1.5847	3	1	2	0	reinforced final pick
embedded_savant_run_environment	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	3	0	0	3	recorded but did not change score margin
fundamental_edge_target_review	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	3	0	0	3	recorded but did not change score margin
capped_target	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	3	0	0	3	recorded but did not change score margin
simulation_result	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	3	0	0	3	recorded but did not change score margin

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "partial_attribution",
  "sample_size": 3,
  "top_stage": "enhanced_prediction",
  "ranking": [
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 5.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 5.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 5.0,
      "games_recorded": 3,
      "games_supporting_pick": 3,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 0,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.6672,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -0.9175,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": -0.2503,
      "absolute_run_movement": 1.5847,
      "games_recorded": 3,
      "games_supporting_pick": 1,
      "games_opposing_pick": 2,
      "games_unchanged": 0,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 3,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 3,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 3,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 3,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 3,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 3,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 3,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 3,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    }
  ],
  "interpretation": "Largest positive recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. Positive, negative, net, absolute, and unchanged movements are shown separately so opposite games cannot cancel into a misleading zero. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution."
}

Which recorded score stage reinforced winning picks?

partial_attribution sample=7

Stage	Positive Toward Pick Run Delta	Negative Away From Pick Run Delta	Net Toward Pick Run Delta	Absolute Run Movement	Games Recorded	Games Supporting Pick	Games Opposing Pick	Games Unchanged	Meaning
enhanced_prediction	5.0	-1.0	4.0	6.0	7	4	1	2	reinforced final pick
embedded_savant_run_environment	2.0	-1.0	1.0	3.0	7	2	1	4	reinforced final pick
variance_applied	1.4181	-0.2026	1.2155	1.6207	7	5	2	0	reinforced final pick
fundamental_edge_target_review	1.0	0.0	1.0	1.0	7	1	0	6	reinforced final pick
capped_target	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	7	0	0	7	recorded but did not change score margin
simulation_result	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	7	0	0	7	recorded but did not change score margin

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "partial_attribution",
  "sample_size": 7,
  "top_stage": "enhanced_prediction",
  "ranking": [
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 5.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -1.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 4.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 6.0,
      "games_recorded": 7,
      "games_supporting_pick": 4,
      "games_opposing_pick": 1,
      "games_unchanged": 2,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 2.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -1.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 3.0,
      "games_recorded": 7,
      "games_supporting_pick": 2,
      "games_opposing_pick": 1,
      "games_unchanged": 4,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.4181,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -0.2026,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.2155,
      "absolute_run_movement": 1.6207,
      "games_recorded": 7,
      "games_supporting_pick": 5,
      "games_opposing_pick": 2,
      "games_unchanged": 0,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 1.0,
      "games_recorded": 7,
      "games_supporting_pick": 1,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 6,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 7,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 7,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 7,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 7,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    }
  ],
  "interpretation": "Largest positive recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. Positive, negative, net, absolute, and unchanged movements are shown separately so opposite games cannot cancel into a misleading zero. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution."
}

Are Overs performing worse than Unders?

not_measurable sample=0

The current artifacts contain predicted totals but no total line, Over/Under selection, price, or settled total bet.

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "The current artifacts contain predicted totals but no total line, Over/Under selection, price, or settled total bet.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "total_line",
    "total_selection",
    "odds",
    "settled_result"
  ]
}

Are hitter props outperforming pitcher props?

not_measurable sample=0

Player stat projections are not stored as priced, selected, and settled prop predictions.

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "Player stat projections are not stored as priced, selected, and settled prop predictions.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "prop_family",
    "prop_line",
    "selection",
    "odds",
    "settled_result"
  ]
}

Which sportsbooks produce better opportunities?

not_measurable sample=0

No settled prediction was linked to a sportsbook snapshot.

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "No settled prediction was linked to a sportsbook snapshot.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "sportsbook",
    "selection_odds",
    "settled_profit"
  ],
  "books": []
}

Which confidence ranges underperform?

insufficient_sample sample=10

Range	Sample Size	Hits	Misses	Accuracy
[0.000, 0.525)	5	3	2	0.6
[0.525, 0.550)	1	1	0	1.0
[0.550, 0.600)	3	3	0	1.0
[0.600, 1.010)	1	0	1	0.0

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 10,
  "minimum_recommended_sample": 20,
  "worst_observed_range": {
    "range": "[0.600, 1.010)",
    "sample_size": 1,
    "hits": 0,
    "misses": 1,
    "accuracy": 0.0
  },
  "ranges": [
    {
      "range": "[0.000, 0.525)",
      "sample_size": 5,
      "hits": 3,
      "misses": 2,
      "accuracy": 0.6
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.525, 0.550)",
      "sample_size": 1,
      "hits": 1,
      "misses": 0,
      "accuracy": 1.0
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.550, 0.600)",
      "sample_size": 3,
      "hits": 3,
      "misses": 0,
      "accuracy": 1.0
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.600, 1.010)",
      "sample_size": 1,
      "hits": 0,
      "misses": 1,
      "accuracy": 0.0
    }
  ]
}

Which monitored features are drifting?

insufficient_sample sample=10

Three slates are descriptive only and cannot establish statistical feature drift.

Date	Sample Size	Mean Confidence	Mean Predicted Total	Accuracy
20260914	10	0.5443	10.3	0.7

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 10,
  "minimum_baseline_sample": 30,
  "minimum_recent_sample": 20,
  "reason": "Three slates are descriptive only and cannot establish statistical feature drift.",
  "daily_monitors": [
    {
      "date": "20260914",
      "sample_size": 10,
      "mean_confidence": 0.5443,
      "mean_predicted_total": 10.3,
      "accuracy": 0.7
    }
  ],
  "features_monitored": [
    "confidence",
    "predicted_total",
    "winner_accuracy"
  ]
}

Which model version introduced errors?

insufficient_sample sample=10

Version error claims require at least 30 settled predictions per version.

Pipeline Version	Model Schema Version	Policy Version	Sample Size	Hits	Misses	Accuracy
enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	historical_game_temporal_v11	model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3	10	7	3	0.7

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 10,
  "minimum_sample_per_version": 30,
  "versions": [
    {
      "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "sample_size": 10,
      "hits": 7,
      "misses": 3,
      "accuracy": 0.7
    }
  ],
  "reason": "Version error claims require at least 30 settled predictions per version."
}

Game processing context

How each game moved from the historical model through confidence calibration, H2H and recent-form signals, score distribution and simulation policy. Postgame learning is added only after the official result settles.

20260914_ATL@CHC

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickCHC

Published scoreATL 5 - 6 CHC

Final confidence52.4%

Calibrationraw 46.7% → blended 51.0%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.2% · weight 50.0% · n=677

H2H base featurehome net -4.0 · absolute 4.0 · n=3

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.1076

Simulation variance1.85

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.385609082824654-4.808082230570342	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, projected_margin_is_one_run)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-6	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-6	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-6	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "CHC",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "confidence": 0.047648,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.523824,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.523824,
    "away_win_probability": 0.476176
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.047648,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "CHC wins 6-5 (Extra Innings - 10)",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 6
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "predicted_score_text": "ATL 5 - 6 CHC",
    "confidence": 0.5238244799999999,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.466968,
    "sample_size": 677,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5524,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.509684,
    "published_confidence": 0.523824,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 3,
    "sample_weight": 0.0409,
    "home_net_margin": -4.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 4.0,
    "home_average_margin": -1.333,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0273,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0273,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.0967,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.128,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.1076
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.021808025322636215
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.021452430210923322
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.020982884491409903
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.02064074387829181
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.0199286331155204
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.045127448075079506,
      "1": 0.07283120247383311,
      "2": 0.10385802223298195,
      "3": 0.13086047072770202,
      "4": 0.14568766098819158,
      "5": 0.14331212173977953,
      "6": 0.12456296671265177,
      "7": 0.09566230106123023,
      "8": 0.0649140290530097,
      "9": 0.03892083691806256,
      "10": 0.02061919176075559,
      "11": 0.00965177007002818,
      "12": 0.003991978186694253
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.048227899365366735,
      "1": 0.07764386184217338,
      "2": 0.10990714498597667,
      "3": 0.13679012333883014,
      "4": 0.14969027009366168,
      "5": 0.14402650402294967,
      "6": 0.1218431960765565,
      "7": 0.09062962063538808,
      "8": 0.05927192850901777,
      "9": 0.034083012202948876,
      "10": 0.01723204810786206,
      "11": 0.007660301142645838,
      "12": 0.0029940896766227436
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.85,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "ATL 5 - 6 CHC",
      "winner": "CHC"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "ATL 5 - 6 CHC",
      "winner": "CHC"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0487,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0113,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "winner": "CHC",
      "model_winner": "CHC",
      "simulation_winner": "CHC",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
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        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5,
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
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      "simulation_score": {
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    },
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        "home_runs": 6,
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    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
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    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
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          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": 0.0967,
          "recent_quality_edge": 0.128,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": 0.1076
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 0.0,
        "reason": "season quality edge below action threshold"
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 4,
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        "home_distribution": {
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          "4": 0.1489838538299288,
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          "7": 0.09550328016165337,
          "8": 0.0633859559315805,
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        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.385609082824654,
      "home_runs": 4.808082230570342,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, projected_margin_is_one_run)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260914_BAL@NYM

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickNYM

Published scoreBAL 4 - 7 NYM

Final confidence62.8%

Calibrationraw 91.7% → blended 72.7%

Empirical signalhit rate 53.6% · weight 50.0% · n=194

H2H base featureNot available for this matchup · n=0

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.3369

Simulation variance1.85

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.272480249785751-4.605288492601485	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-7	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-7	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-7	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-7	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-7	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
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  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYM",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 7,
    "confidence": 0.255014,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.627507,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.627507,
    "away_win_probability": 0.372493
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.255014,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYM wins 7-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 7
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 7,
    "predicted_score_text": "BAL 4 - 7 NYM",
    "confidence": 0.627507,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.917336,
    "sample_size": 194,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5361,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.726718,
    "published_confidence": 0.627507,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": false,
    "sample_size": 0,
    "home_net_margin": 0.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.0202,
    "recent_quality_edge": 1.0,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
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  "score_distribution": {
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        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.016079632105609223
      },
      {
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        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.016019318904797568
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      {
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        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.015578603190131345
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.015010323688350825
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    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.014637142943814302,
      "1": 0.024235446897050802,
      "2": 0.03731879734208766,
      "3": 0.05344242238393699,
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      "11": 0.06932694989168359,
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      "13": 0.03580757990919387,
      "14": 0.02307991691058456,
      "15": 0.013834880138557907,
      "16": 0.007712558114232777,
      "17": 0.003998557878370143
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    "away_distribution": {
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      "3": 0.13396544447904904,
      "4": 0.14782132924663358,
      "5": 0.14375454069282492,
      "6": 0.12321006701514581,
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    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
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    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
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  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "score_text": "BAL 4 - 7 NYM",
      "winner": "NYM"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "score_text": "BAL 4 - 7 NYM",
      "winner": "NYM"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0188,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 1.0,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "winner": "NYM",
      "model_winner": "NYM",
      "simulation_winner": "NYM",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 6,
        "published_winner": "NYM",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667,
        "draw_majority_team": "NYM",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 3,
      "simulation_margin": 3,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
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        "home_runs": 7
      },
      "simulation_score": {
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        "home_runs": 7
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    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 3,
      "final_margin": 3,
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      "score_reviewed": {
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        "home_runs": 7,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
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  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
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    "display_confidence": 0.6275,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6392,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.6275,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 3,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.3369,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 1.0,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0188,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.6667,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.1667,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.1667,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.5,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 4,
        "median": 8,
        "max": 11,
        "range": 7
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
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        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
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        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
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        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
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  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
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    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
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        "new_value": 1.85,
        "risk_tier": "low",
        "evaluation_mode": "artifact_replay"
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    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
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    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-14T22:36:40.482735+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-14T23:10:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.627507,
      "confidence": 0.627507,
      "predicted_score": {
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        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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            "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
            "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
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            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
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      }
    },
    "candidate_prediction": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.63062,
      "confidence": 0.63062,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 7,
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      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
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        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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          "config_id": "candidate-11bc4bc2dfc7264a-registry-4c40ee6a3671",
          "config_hash": "sha256:4c40ee6a3671b3a7c2775a53d9c67b935e269d408c98251960ad257a5d502c6c",
          "parent_config_id": "candidate-11bc4bc2dfc7264a",
          "created_at_utc": "2026-09-09T13:40:22.642803+00:00",
          "parameters": {
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            "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
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            "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
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            "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
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            "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
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            "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
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            "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
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    "diagnostics": {
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        "starter_experience": {
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      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
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        "home": {
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          "run_differential": -34,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.22818791946308725,
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        "away": {
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          "games": 150,
          "wins": 72,
          "losses": 78,
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          "runs_scored": 672,
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          "run_differential": -35,
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        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 0.0051,
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        "recent_quality_blend": {
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          "recent_window": 10,
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          "recent_quality_edge": 1.0,
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      "score_distribution": {
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        "home_distribution": {
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        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.272480249785751,
      "home_runs": 4.605288492601485,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260914_CHW@CLE

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickCLE

Published scoreCHW 4 - 5 CLE

Final confidence50.6%

Calibrationraw 51.0% → blended 52.9%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.9% · weight 50.0% · n=450

H2H base featurehome net -2.0 · absolute 2.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.0028

Simulation variance1.85

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.552272735937544-4.377229796736421	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "CLE",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.011308,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.505654,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.505654,
    "away_win_probability": 0.494346
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.011308,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "CLE wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "CHW 4 - 5 CLE",
    "confidence": 0.505654285,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5101,
    "sample_size": 450,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5489,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.5295,
    "published_confidence": 0.505654,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -2.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 2.0,
    "home_average_margin": -0.4,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0115,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0115,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 6.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.28,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.512,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.0028
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.024565129366264475
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.023439527814950525
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.023147141086178828
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02272196430298029
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.022358198209019454
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05377948133913337,
      "1": 0.08620311188165078,
      "2": 0.12042992034305199,
      "3": 0.1466395013434015,
      "4": 0.15562260182775048,
      "5": 0.14394596302526108,
      "6": 0.11604633472574541,
      "7": 0.0815395832138931,
      "8": 0.04993564539384273,
      "9": 0.026653728410908,
      "10": 0.012399677498648962,
      "11": 0.005027683521677602,
      "12": 0.0017767674750350535
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05613721876666249,
      "1": 0.08982111482928735,
      "2": 0.12481119438092869,
      "3": 0.1506177607857653,
      "4": 0.15785065329684037,
      "5": 0.143669351022459,
      "6": 0.11356105688332548,
      "7": 0.07795469395990832,
      "8": 0.0464732093942399,
      "9": 0.024060830265941763,
      "10": 0.010818476420062728,
      "11": 0.004224439994578583
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.85,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "CHW 4 - 5 CLE",
      "winner": "CLE"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "CHW 4 - 5 CLE",
      "winner": "CLE"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0305,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.302,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
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      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "CLE",
      "model_winner": "CLE",
      "simulation_winner": "CLE",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
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        "draw_count": 3,
        "published_winner": "CLE",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "CLE",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
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      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
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      "simulation_score": {
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    },
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      "score_reviewed": {
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        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
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      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
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  },
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    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
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    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
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        "max": 12,
        "range": 6
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    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
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          "run_differential": 34,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.22818791946308725,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": -0.2749,
        "win_pct_edge": -0.0034,
        "quality_edge": -0.0028,
        "season_quality_edge": -0.28,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": -0.28,
          "recent_quality_edge": 0.512,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "conflict",
          "blended_quality_edge": -0.0028
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 0.0,
        "reason": "season quality edge below action threshold"
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 4,
            "probability": 0.025731679149538923
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 3,
            "probability": 0.02448690629586168
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 3,
            "away_runs": 4,
            "probability": 0.024164115624730063
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 5,
            "away_runs": 4,
            "probability": 0.0236951430387145
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 5,
            "probability": 0.023294304331447087
          }
        ],
        "home_distribution": {
          "0": 0.05184750496206764,
          "1": 0.08537744021197499,
          "2": 0.1215772686426664,
          "3": 0.14971165791669294,
          "4": 0.15942368453639222,
          "5": 0.14680608237400625,
          "6": 0.11690396504323187,
          "7": 0.08050232404705474,
          "8": 0.0479381842302031,
          "9": 0.024685886434212927,
          "10": 0.010992838767250986,
          "11": 0.004233162834245999
        },
        "away_distribution": {
          "0": 0.05410817785134243,
          "1": 0.08893135079071224,
          "2": 0.1259198733959769,
          "3": 0.1535964142785319,
          "4": 0.1614043686442654,
          "5": 0.14611570670435492,
          "6": 0.11395304373232489,
          "7": 0.07656007781198129,
          "8": 0.04431249584966094,
          "9": 0.022095176081890537,
          "10": 0.009491090867598822,
          "11": 0.00351222399135962
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 1.75,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.552272735937544,
      "home_runs": 4.377229796736421,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260914_DET@TOR

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickDET

Published scoreDET 5 - 4 TOR

Final confidence50.6%

Calibrationraw 51.0% → blended 52.9%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.9% · weight 50.0% · n=450

H2H base featurehome net 3.0 · absolute 3.0 · n=3

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.4635

Simulation variance1.85

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.097277328278955-4.3069216623282385	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "DET",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": -0.011308,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.505654,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.494346,
    "away_win_probability": 0.505654
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.011308,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "DET wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "DET 5 - 4 TOR",
    "confidence": 0.505654285,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5101,
    "sample_size": 450,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5489,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.5295,
    "published_confidence": 0.505654,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 3,
    "sample_weight": 0.0409,
    "home_net_margin": 3.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 3.0,
    "home_average_margin": 1.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0205,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0205,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.6312,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.152,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.4635
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.024657541109169154
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.023573299848026356
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.023276977297951983
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.022753589708159095
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.022386513888703094
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05648637439482895,
      "1": 0.09035478004473478,
      "2": 0.12544861859855236,
      "3": 0.1511777757187428,
      "4": 0.15813111628874263,
      "5": 0.14356680641273167,
      "6": 0.11313528113266758,
      "7": 0.07738368350748868,
      "8": 0.04594180501588102,
      "9": 0.023674129970911006,
      "10": 0.010588813968992578,
      "11": 0.004110814945725941
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.054112991253100706,
      "1": 0.08671491494811824,
      "2": 0.12104951044813868,
      "3": 0.1472004868127847,
      "4": 0.15593098744806955,
      "5": 0.14389065379524502,
      "6": 0.11566706525048866,
      "7": 0.0809960465534369,
      "8": 0.04940772987969576,
      "9": 0.02625445168072814,
      "10": 0.012153125399539179,
      "11": 0.0049006081686854466,
      "12": 0.0017214283619688925
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.85,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "DET 5 - 4 TOR",
      "winner": "DET"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "DET 5 - 4 TOR",
      "winner": "DET"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0639,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0353,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "DET",
      "model_winner": "DET",
      "simulation_winner": "DET",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 6,
        "published_winner": "DET",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.1667,
        "draw_majority_team": "TOR",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.4635,
      "winner": "DET",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "DET",
    "display_confidence": 0.5057,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5599,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5057,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.4635,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.152,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0639,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.1667,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.1667,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.3333,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 5,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 9,
        "range": 4
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
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      "config_hash": "sha256:f542511539f291f9f8af06cbdac9abb41ef927ee79bd9dfa8da0185765dd9140",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-11bc4bc2dfc7264a-registry-4c40ee6a3671",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-12T09:04:27.150731+00:00",
      "parameters": {
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        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
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        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.85,
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        "recent.window_games": 10,
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        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
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        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
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        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
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        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
        "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
        "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
        "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
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        "context.lineup_context_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
        "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
        "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
        "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
        "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
        "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
        "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
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    }
  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
      "config_id": "candidate-11bc4bc2dfc7264a-registry-4c40ee6a3671",
      "config_hash": "sha256:4c40ee6a3671b3a7c2775a53d9c67b935e269d408c98251960ad257a5d502c6c",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-11bc4bc2dfc7264a",
      "parent_config_hash": "sha256:77b48e255ea4a5c12453f385020a95612bfd01fcf6d9ccc6baa8aeb6377b834b"
    },
    "changes": [
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        "parameter": "score.variance_multiplier",
        "old_value": 1.75,
        "new_value": 1.85,
        "risk_tier": "low",
        "evaluation_mode": "artifact_replay"
      }
    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
      "artifact_replay"
    ],
    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-14T22:36:42.491591+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-14T23:07:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "away",
      "home_win_probability": 0.492174,
      "confidence": 0.507826,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "total_runs": 8
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
          "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
          "config_id": "candidate-ed18fee8af33cf7e",
          "config_hash": "sha256:f542511539f291f9f8af06cbdac9abb41ef927ee79bd9dfa8da0185765dd9140",
          "parent_config_id": "candidate-11bc4bc2dfc7264a-registry-4c40ee6a3671",
          "created_at_utc": "2026-09-12T09:04:27.150731+00:00",
          "parameters": {
            "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
            "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
            "confidence.base_cap": 0.58,
            "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
            "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
            "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
            "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
            "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
            "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
            "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
            "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
            "confidence.floor": 0.505,
            "score.variance_multiplier": 1.85,
            "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
            "recent.window_games": 10,
            "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
            "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
            "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
            "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
            "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
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    },
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        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
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        "run_differential_edge_per_game": -0.6765,
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    }
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  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.097277328278955,
      "home_runs": 4.3069216623282385,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260914_LAD@CIN

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickLAD

Published scoreLAD 8 - 3 CIN

Final confidence58.0%

Calibrationraw 92.0% → blended 74.2%

Empirical signalhit rate 56.3% · weight 50.0% · n=119

H2H base featurehome net -17.0 · absolute 17.0 · n=3

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -1.8942

Simulation variance1.85

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	5.077852642343052-2.4951443947040333	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-2	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	7-3	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	8-3	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	8-3	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	8-3	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	8-3	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "LAD",
    "away_runs": 8,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "confidence": -0.16,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.58,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.42,
    "away_win_probability": 0.58
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.16,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "LAD wins 8-3",
    "away_runs": 8,
    "home_runs": 3
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 8,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "predicted_score_text": "LAD 8 - 3 CIN",
    "confidence": 0.58,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.92,
    "sample_size": 119,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.563,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.7415,
    "published_confidence": 0.58,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 3,
    "sample_weight": 0.0409,
    "home_net_margin": -17.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 17.0,
    "home_average_margin": -5.667,
    "home_run_delta": -0.1159,
    "away_run_delta": 0.1159,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -13.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -2.3154,
    "recent_quality_edge": -1.112,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -1.8942
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 7,
        "probability": 0.019215902971238305
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 7,
        "probability": 0.018953021935637762
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.018881974742337077
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.018623661974944444
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      {
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        "away_runs": 8,
        "probability": 0.018043862403489
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    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06719876567068613,
      "1": 0.10659189853176425,
      "2": 0.1443129667115961,
      "3": 0.1667649460990073,
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      "6": 0.09949758463965397,
      "7": 0.0610217941615969,
      "8": 0.03194299713702464,
      "9": 0.014271992471951194,
      "10": 0.005442667566803256
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.018811531567358646,
      "1": 0.031024557224117993,
      "2": 0.0472109079925498,
      "3": 0.06628792720073853,
      "4": 0.08587798574525297,
      "5": 0.10265605837301998,
      "6": 0.1132250822731473,
      "7": 0.11522747088485817,
      "8": 0.10819937178390279,
      "9": 0.09374514247822949,
      "10": 0.074942492384215,
      "11": 0.05527933579659218,
      "12": 0.03762294820057605,
      "13": 0.023626432936543693,
      "14": 0.013689853976752903,
      "15": 0.007319051421646923,
      "16": 0.003610489661919862,
      "17": 0.0016433600985778542
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.85,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 8,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "LAD 8 - 3 CIN",
      "winner": "LAD"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 8,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "LAD 8 - 3 CIN",
      "winner": "LAD"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0291,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -1.462,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
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    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
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      "home_runs": 3,
      "winner": "LAD",
      "model_winner": "LAD",
      "simulation_winner": "LAD",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 3,
        "published_winner": "LAD",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "LAD",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 5,
      "simulation_margin": 5,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
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        "home_runs": 3
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 8,
        "home_runs": 3
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 5,
      "final_margin": 5,
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      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 8,
        "home_runs": 3,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
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      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
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    "internal_signal_score": 0.72,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.58,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "supported_runline_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
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      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 1.0,
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        "min": 8,
        "median": 8,
        "max": 10,
        "range": 2
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
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            "home_margin": -1.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": -3.0
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        ],
        "adaptive_parameters": {
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      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "home": {
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          "games": 149,
          "wins": 70,
          "losses": 79,
          "win_pct": 0.4697986577181208,
          "runs_scored": 624,
          "runs_allowed": 769,
          "run_differential": -145,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.9731543624161074,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "LAD",
          "games": 149,
          "wins": 90,
          "losses": 59,
          "win_pct": 0.6040268456375839,
          "runs_scored": 741,
          "runs_allowed": 571,
          "run_differential": 170,
          "run_differential_per_game": 1.1409395973154361,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": -2.1141,
        "win_pct_edge": -0.1342,
        "quality_edge": -1.8942,
        "season_quality_edge": -2.3154,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": -2.3154,
          "recent_quality_edge": -1.112,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": -1.8942
        },
        "margin_adjustment": -3.0307,
        "reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
          "adjustment": -3.0307,
          "cap": 4.0,
          "scale": 1.6,
          "quality_edge": -1.8942,
          "season_quality_edge": -2.3154,
          "recent_alignment": "aligned",
          "large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": true,
          "method": "supported_large_edge_up_to_four_runs"
        },
        "adjusted_score": {
          "away_runs": 8.722,
          "home_runs": 0.0,
          "home_win_probability": 0.08
        }
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
            "home_runs": 3,
            "away_runs": 7,
            "probability": 0.020114928896790826
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          {
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        ],
        "home_distribution": {
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        "away_distribution": {
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          "16": 0.0030360817262833108,
          "17": 0.0013211336508191463
        },
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        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
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      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 5.077852642343052,
      "home_runs": 2.4951443947040333,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 8,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 8,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 8,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 8,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260914_MIA@ARI

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickMIA

Published scoreMIA 5 - 4 ARI

Final confidence51.7%

Calibrationraw 59.4% → blended 57.3%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.1% · weight 50.0% · n=584

H2H base featurehome net -14.0 · absolute 14.0 · n=3

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.165

Simulation variance1.85

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.803531059191406-4.711044065923282	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by starter_quality_favours_the_other_side, projected_margin_is_one_run)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIA",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": -0.034852,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.517426,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.482574,
    "away_win_probability": 0.517426
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.034852,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIA wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "MIA 5 - 4 ARI",
    "confidence": 0.5174260625,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.593811,
    "sample_size": 584,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5514,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.572605,
    "published_confidence": 0.517426,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 3,
    "sample_weight": 0.0409,
    "home_net_margin": -14.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 14.0,
    "home_average_margin": -4.667,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0955,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0955,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -8.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.0233,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.428,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.165
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  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.02133529638563516
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.020505719530818183
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.019958443652600532
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.019919383740625265
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.019860140843179032
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.052464162283958275,
      "1": 0.08418197713778118,
      "2": 0.11797248027543546,
      "3": 0.14439345513045246,
      "4": 0.15435457869244784,
      "5": 0.14411086818402663,
      "6": 0.11751117320064575,
      "7": 0.08368869573114211,
      "8": 0.05205466389015208,
      "9": 0.028278586888251314,
      "10": 0.013417171471762464,
      "11": 0.005559931570132464,
      "12": 0.002012255543812074
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.037244366341482565,
      "1": 0.06048453580303114,
      "2": 0.08787960383023259,
      "3": 0.11423305859134464,
      "4": 0.13284814551355756,
      "5": 0.13822263366832693,
      "6": 0.12866570600895777,
      "7": 0.10715351634718369,
      "8": 0.07983806888575332,
      "9": 0.0532198439001467,
      "10": 0.03173928545913028,
      "11": 0.016934823341914255,
      "12": 0.008083960302339875,
      "13": 0.0034524520065985524
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.85,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "MIA 5 - 4 ARI",
      "winner": "MIA"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "MIA 5 - 4 ARI",
      "winner": "MIA"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0107,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.078,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "MIA",
      "model_winner": "MIA",
      "simulation_winner": "MIA",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 5,
        "published_winner": "MIA",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.4,
        "draw_majority_team": "ARI",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.165,
      "winner": "MIA",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "MIA",
    "display_confidence": 0.5174,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.505,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5174,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.165,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.428,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0107,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.4,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.6,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 5,
        "median": 6,
        "max": 9,
        "range": 4
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
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      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-12T09:04:27.150731+00:00",
      "parameters": {
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        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
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        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
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        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
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        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
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        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
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        "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
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        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
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  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
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    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
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    "changes": [
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        "old_value": 1.75,
        "new_value": 1.85,
        "risk_tier": "low",
        "evaluation_mode": "artifact_replay"
      }
    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
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    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-15T01:36:02.875541+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-15T01:40:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "away",
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    },
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    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 5,
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      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
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    }
  ]
}

20260914_NYY@MIN

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickNYY

Published scoreNYY 6 - 4 MIN

Final confidence57.0%

Calibrationraw 76.2% → blended 65.8%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.4% · weight 50.0% · n=589

H2H base featurehome net 9.0 · absolute 9.0 · n=3

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -1.2593

Simulation variance1.85

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.188749196898823-4.348259603279808	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	6-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	6-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	6-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	6-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	6-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYY",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": -0.14,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.57,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.43,
    "away_win_probability": 0.57
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.14,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYY wins 6-4",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "NYY 6 - 4 MIN",
    "confidence": 0.57,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.761678,
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    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5535,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.657589,
    "published_confidence": 0.57,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
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    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 3,
    "sample_weight": 0.0409,
    "home_net_margin": 9.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 9.0,
    "home_average_margin": 3.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0614,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0614,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 7.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      }
    ],
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  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -1.4161,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.968,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
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  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.018218855891145518
      },
      {
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        "away_runs": 7,
        "probability": 0.017578884062738005
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    "home_distribution": {
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          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability",
          "season run-differential edge supports the pick"
        ],
        "score_coherence": {
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          "published_score": {
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        "starter_experience": {
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        "home_net_margin": 9.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 9.0,
        "home_average_margin": 3.0,
        "home_run_delta": 0.0614,
        "away_run_delta": -0.0614,
        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": 5.0
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          {
            "home_margin": 7.0
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          {
            "home_margin": -3.0
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          "run_differential_per_game": -0.4161073825503356,
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        },
        "away": {
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          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": -1.255,
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        "quality_edge": -1.2593,
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        "recent_quality_blend": {
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        "margin_adjustment": -0.5289,
        "reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
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          "cap": 1.4,
          "scale": 0.42,
          "quality_edge": -1.2593,
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          "recent_alignment": "aligned",
          "large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": false,
          "method": "standard_bounded_season_recent_adjustment"
        },
        "adjusted_score": {
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          "home_runs": 2.4,
          "home_win_probability": 0.0878
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      },
      "score_distribution": {
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        "home_distribution": {
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    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
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    }
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  "score_evolution": [
    {
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      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260914_SD@COL

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickSD

Published scoreSD 8 - 5 COL

Final confidence58.0%

Calibrationraw 78.5% → blended 67.7%

Empirical signalhit rate 56.9% · weight 50.0% · n=123

H2H base featurehome net -1.0 · absolute 1.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -1.366

Simulation variance1.85

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	5.7871288500083375-3.6146686102632293	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	6-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	7-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	8-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	8-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	8-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	8-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "SD",
    "away_runs": 8,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": -0.16,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.58,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.42,
    "away_win_probability": 0.58
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.16,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "SD wins 8-5",
    "away_runs": 8,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 8,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "SD 8 - 5 COL",
    "confidence": 0.58,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.784898,
    "sample_size": 123,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5691,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.676999,
    "published_confidence": 0.58,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -1.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 1.0,
    "home_average_margin": -0.2,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0058,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0058,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -1.5436,
    "recent_quality_edge": -1.036,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -1.366
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 7,
        "probability": 0.014899277126143204
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 8,
        "probability": 0.014726907194188755
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 7,
        "probability": 0.014162563184426866
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      {
        "home_runs": 4,
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        "probability": 0.0140767302437853
      },
      {
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        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.014003755619103882
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.03483272164995814,
      "1": 0.0566758196361497,
      "2": 0.08281737524696232,
      "3": 0.10868218653433698,
      "4": 0.1280880236543905,
      "5": 0.13557260300624807,
      "6": 0.1288690410881853,
      "7": 0.11001160776062027,
      "8": 0.08434156957906916,
      "9": 0.05807083870242589,
      "10": 0.035907715081269366,
      "11": 0.01994025440757192,
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      "13": 0.004454062441515815,
      "14": 0.001791591456748696
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    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.015173569479598543,
      "1": 0.025110442742288745,
      "2": 0.038605275827592066,
      "3": 0.0551397288833289,
      "4": 0.07316582434655869,
      "5": 0.090193988164464,
      "6": 0.1032934037451394,
      "7": 0.10989887924078988,
      "8": 0.10862745766937913,
      "9": 0.0997497105934547,
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      "11": 0.0674423560126162,
      "12": 0.04965715037617499,
      "13": 0.033966948338008195,
      "14": 0.021585243136480907,
      "15": 0.012743333124943152,
      "16": 0.006989318065582915,
      "17": 0.0035613302605717752
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    "variance_multiplier": 1.85,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 8,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "SD 8 - 5 COL",
      "winner": "SD"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 8,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "SD 8 - 5 COL",
      "winner": "SD"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0346,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -1.246,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 8,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "SD",
      "model_winner": "SD",
      "simulation_winner": "SD",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 6,
        "published_winner": "SD",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5,
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 3,
      "simulation_margin": 3,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
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        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 8,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 3,
      "final_margin": 3,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.366,
      "winner": "SD",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 8,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "SD",
    "display_confidence": 0.58,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6829,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.58,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "supported_runline_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 3,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.366,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 1.036,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0346,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.5,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.6667,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.1667,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.1667,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 5,
        "median": 8,
        "max": 12,
        "range": 7
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-ed18fee8af33cf7e",
      "config_hash": "sha256:f542511539f291f9f8af06cbdac9abb41ef927ee79bd9dfa8da0185765dd9140",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-11bc4bc2dfc7264a-registry-4c40ee6a3671",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-12T09:04:27.150731+00:00",
      "parameters": {
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        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
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        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
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        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
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        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
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        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
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        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
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        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
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    },
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      "away_runs": 8,
      "home_runs": 5,
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    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 8,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 8,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
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      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260914_SEA@LAA

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickLAA

Published scoreSEA 5 - 6 LAA

Final confidence52.8%

Calibrationraw 50.5% → blended 53.2%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.8% · weight 50.0% · n=351

H2H base featurehome net -8.0 · absolute 8.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.2584

Simulation variance1.85

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.4536830521619035-5.399490326136601	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	3-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-6	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-6	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-6	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-6	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-6	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "LAA",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "confidence": 0.055176,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.527588,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.527588,
    "away_win_probability": 0.472412
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.055176,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "LAA wins 6-5",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 6
  },
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            "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
            "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
            "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
            "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
            "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
            "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
            "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
            "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
            "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
            "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
            "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
            "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
            "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
            "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
            "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
            "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
            "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
            "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
            "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
            "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
            "context.lineup_context_min": 0.8,
            "context.lineup_context_weight": 1.0,
            "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
            "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
            "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
            "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
            "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
            "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
            "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
            "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
            "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
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        }
      }
    },
    "diagnostics": {
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        "applied": true,
        "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
        "raw_confidence": 0.505164,
        "sample_size": 351,
        "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5584,
        "empirical_weight": 0.5,
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      "confidence_governor": {
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        "policy": "align_to_calibrated_probability_v2",
        "raw_confidence": 0.53,
        "final_confidence": 0.5675,
        "calibrated_pick_probability": 0.5675,
        "shrinkage_weight": 0.968293,
        "hard_maximum": 0.9,
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        "score_gap": 0.1,
        "calibration_sample_size": 351,
        "calibration_empirical_hit_rate": 0.5584,
        "calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.5556,
        "calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.2584,
        "reasons": [
          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability"
        ],
        "score_coherence": {
          "policy": "probability_follows_published_score_v1",
          "published_score": {
            "away_runs": 5,
            "home_runs": 6
          },
          "margin": 1,
          "probability_before": 0.567481,
          "margin_implied_home_probability": 0.581951,
          "shrinkage_weight": 0.968293,
          "side_flipped": false,
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          "magnitude_pull_suppressed": true,
          "probability_after": 0.567481,
          "aligned_pick_probability": 0.567481
        },
        "starter_experience": {
          "applied": true,
          "min_starter_games": 4,
          "per_starter_career_games": {
            "672282": 29,
            "807739": 4
          },
          "shrink_factor": 0.5667,
          "probability_before": 0.567481,
          "probability_after": 0.538239,
          "reason": "inexperienced starter (debut/thin history): confidence shrunk toward 0.5 by career-games factor; winner unchanged"
        }
      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
        "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
        "available": true,
        "sample_size": 5,
        "sample_weight": 0.0577,
        "home_net_margin": -8.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 8.0,
        "home_average_margin": -1.6,
        "home_run_delta": -0.0462,
        "away_run_delta": 0.0462,
        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": -1.0
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          {
            "home_margin": -5.0
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          {
            "home_margin": -4.0
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          {
            "home_margin": 1.0
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          {
            "home_margin": 1.0
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        ],
        "adaptive_parameters": {
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          "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
          "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
        }
      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
        "applied": false,
        "home": {
          "team": "LAA",
          "games": 149,
          "wins": 56,
          "losses": 93,
          "win_pct": 0.37583892617449666,
          "runs_scored": 604,
          "runs_allowed": 680,
          "run_differential": -76,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.5100671140939598,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "SEA",
          "games": 150,
          "wins": 70,
          "losses": 80,
          "win_pct": 0.4666666666666667,
          "runs_scored": 612,
          "runs_allowed": 670,
          "run_differential": -58,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.38666666666666666,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": -0.1234,
        "win_pct_edge": -0.0908,
        "quality_edge": -0.2584,
        "season_quality_edge": -0.2596,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": -0.2596,
          "recent_quality_edge": -0.256,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": -0.2584
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 0.0,
        "reason": "season quality edge below action threshold"
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
            "home_runs": 5,
            "away_runs": 5,
            "probability": 0.020927473547735567
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 5,
            "away_runs": 4,
            "probability": 0.020861232561189613
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          {
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            "probability": 0.020606491533270942
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          {
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            "away_runs": 4,
            "probability": 0.02054126653966141
          },
          {
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            "away_runs": 5,
            "probability": 0.01878333759398072
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        ],
        "home_distribution": {
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          "3": 0.12355917465527635,
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          "10": 0.02441570377549428,
          "11": 0.011815205753176823,
          "12": 0.0050530843344699485,
          "13": 0.0019099193115562853
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        "away_distribution": {
          "0": 0.04040637795049235,
          "1": 0.06717333742779802,
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          "3": 0.12710519743546503,
          "4": 0.14467140142010787,
          "5": 0.14513077870411756,
          "6": 0.12831984332155177,
          "7": 0.09999667834376766,
          "8": 0.068680711477995,
          "9": 0.04157588045559935,
          "10": 0.022182249348115208,
          "11": 0.010431029382641026,
          "12": 0.004323208814347234,
          "13": 0.001579220289186851
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 1.75,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.4536830521619035,
      "home_runs": 5.399490326136601,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260914_SF@STL

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickSTL

Published scoreSF 4 - 5 STL

Final confidence50.5%

Calibrationraw 46.0% → blended 50.9%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.8% · weight 50.0% · n=547

H2H base featurehome net -3.0 · absolute 3.0 · n=3

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.4205

Simulation variance1.85

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.393094128418258-4.423234144672653	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "STL",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.01,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.505,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.505,
    "away_win_probability": 0.495
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.01,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "STL wins 5-4 (Extra Innings - 10)",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "SF 4 - 5 STL",
    "confidence": 0.505,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.4601,
    "sample_size": 547,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5576,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.50885,
    "published_confidence": 0.505,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 3,
    "sample_weight": 0.0409,
    "home_net_margin": -3.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 3.0,
    "home_average_margin": -1.0,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0205,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0205,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.5867,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.112,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.4205
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02104729129886549
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.020898194176320346
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.020636238952138744
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.02049005368752544
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.018953564147159006
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04382561869444227,
      "1": 0.07080354898301207,
      "2": 0.10128109601052032,
      "3": 0.12827681023957582,
      "4": 0.14385147062404283,
      "5": 0.1428324397169594,
      "6": 0.12556997188474345,
      "7": 0.09774423093758407,
      "8": 0.06736632637824316,
      "9": 0.041109386017082784,
      "10": 0.022211889804441668,
      "11": 0.010626161795275323,
      "12": 0.004501048914076931
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04558633724884025,
      "1": 0.0735449708240523,
      "2": 0.10476115423765613,
      "3": 0.13175787543176617,
      "4": 0.1463126599092809,
      "5": 0.1434551823670385,
      "6": 0.124187988257889,
      "7": 0.09492310935732229,
      "8": 0.06406094390217866,
      "9": 0.03817189538894327,
      "10": 0.020082747609440895,
      "11": 0.009328923879948922,
      "12": 0.0038262115856427365
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.85,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "SF 4 - 5 STL",
      "winner": "STL"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "SF 4 - 5 STL",
      "winner": "STL"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0357,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.238,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "STL",
      "model_winner": "STL",
      "simulation_winner": "STL",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 3,
        "published_winner": "STL",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.3333,
        "draw_majority_team": "SF",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.4205,
      "winner": "STL",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "STL",
    "display_confidence": 0.505,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5432,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.505,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.4205,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.112,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0357,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.3333,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.3333,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.6667,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 4,
        "median": 5,
        "max": 11,
        "range": 7
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-ed18fee8af33cf7e",
      "config_hash": "sha256:f542511539f291f9f8af06cbdac9abb41ef927ee79bd9dfa8da0185765dd9140",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-11bc4bc2dfc7264a-registry-4c40ee6a3671",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-12T09:04:27.150731+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.85,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
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      "stage": "simulation_result",
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    }
  ]
}

Every reviewed game

Date	Game	Pick	Final confidence	Raw confidence	Empirical hit rate	Empirical weight	Pred A-H	Actual A-H	Result	Largest recorded movement	Pipeline	Roadmap signals
20260914	20260914_ATL@CHC	CHC	52.4%	46.7%	55.2%	50.0%	5.0-6.0	3-7	hit	Embedded Savant Run Environment (-1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.466968, "sample_size": 677, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5524, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.509684, "published_confidence": 0.523824, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 3, "sample_weight": 0.0409, "home_net_margin": -4.0, "absolute_net_margin": 4.0, "home_average_margin": -1.333, "home_run_delta": -0.0273, "away_run_delta": 0.0273, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.0967, "recent_quality_edge": 0.128, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.1076 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.021808025322636215 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.021452430210923322 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.020982884491409903 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.02064074387829181 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.0199286331155204 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.045127448075079506, "1": 0.07283120247383311, "2": 0.10385802223298195, "3": 0.13086047072770202, "4": 0.14568766098819158, "5": 0.14331212173977953, "6": 0.12456296671265177, "7": 0.09566230106123023, "8": 0.0649140290530097, "9": 0.03892083691806256, "10": 0.02061919176075559, "11": 0.00965177007002818, "12": 0.003991978186694253 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.048227899365366735, "1": 0.07764386184217338, "2": 0.10990714498597667, "3": 0.13679012333883014, "4": 0.14969027009366168, "5": 0.14402650402294967, "6": 0.1218431960765565, "7": 0.09062962063538808, "8": 0.05927192850901777, "9": 0.034083012202948876, "10": 0.01723204810786206, "11": 0.007660301142645838, "12": 0.0029940896766227436 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.85, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "ATL 5 - 6 CHC", "winner": "CHC" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "ATL 5 - 6 CHC", "winner": "CHC" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0487, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0113, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "winner": "CHC", "model_winner": "CHC", "simulation_winner": "CHC", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "CHC", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5, "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.1076, "winner": "CHC", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260914	20260914_BAL@NYM	NYM	62.8%	91.7%	53.6%	50.0%	4.0-7.0	2-1	miss	Enhanced Prediction (2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.917336, "sample_size": 194, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5361, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.726718, "published_confidence": 0.627507, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": false, "sample_size": 0, "home_net_margin": 0.0, "home_average_margin": 0.0, "home_run_delta": 0.0, "away_run_delta": 0.0 }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.0202, "recent_quality_edge": 1.0, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.3369 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 7, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.016079632105609223 }, { "home_runs": 8, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.016019318904797568 }, { "home_runs": 7, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01563725708348071 }, { "home_runs": 8, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.015578603190131345 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.015010323688350825 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.014637142943814302, "1": 0.024235446897050802, "2": 0.03731879734208766, "3": 0.05344242238393699, "4": 0.07117484328283297, "5": 0.08815537407381192, "6": 0.10154369308441775, "7": 0.10877748284065991, "8": 0.1083694686446096, "9": 0.1004053308968088, "10": 0.08651441754043981, "11": 0.06932694989168359, "12": 0.05166513722690667, "13": 0.03580757990919387, "14": 0.02307991691058456, "15": 0.013834880138557907, "16": 0.007712558114232777, "17": 0.003998557878370143 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.04673053716077582, "1": 0.07532248235283398, "2": 0.10700119543383216, "3": 0.13396544447904904, "4": 0.14782132924663358, "5": 0.14375454069282492, "6": 0.12321006701514581, "7": 0.0930702692770134, "8": 0.061960640906493676, "9": 0.03635473526939584, "10": 0.018799496848881523, "11": 0.008567845364610598, "12": 0.0034414159525096933 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.85, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 7, "score_text": "BAL 4 - 7 NYM", "winner": "NYM" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 7, "score_text": "BAL 4 - 7 NYM", "winner": "NYM" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": true, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0188, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 1.0, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 7, "winner": "NYM", "model_winner": "NYM", "simulation_winner": "NYM", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "NYM", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667, "draw_majority_team": "NYM", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": true, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 3, "simulation_margin": 3, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 7 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 7 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 3, "final_margin": 3, "winner_quality_edge": 0.3369, "winner": "NYM", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 7, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260914	20260914_CHW@CLE	CLE	50.6%	51.0%	54.9%	50.0%	4.0-5.0	7-3	miss	Enhanced Prediction (2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.5101, "sample_size": 450, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5489, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.5295, "published_confidence": 0.505654, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -2.0, "absolute_net_margin": 2.0, "home_average_margin": -0.4, "home_run_delta": -0.0115, "away_run_delta": 0.0115, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": 6.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.28, "recent_quality_edge": 0.512, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": -0.0028 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.024565129366264475 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.023439527814950525 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.023147141086178828 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02272196430298029 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.022358198209019454 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.05377948133913337, "1": 0.08620311188165078, "2": 0.12042992034305199, "3": 0.1466395013434015, "4": 0.15562260182775048, "5": 0.14394596302526108, "6": 0.11604633472574541, "7": 0.0815395832138931, "8": 0.04993564539384273, "9": 0.026653728410908, "10": 0.012399677498648962, "11": 0.005027683521677602, "12": 0.0017767674750350535 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.05613721876666249, "1": 0.08982111482928735, "2": 0.12481119438092869, "3": 0.1506177607857653, "4": 0.15785065329684037, "5": 0.143669351022459, "6": 0.11356105688332548, "7": 0.07795469395990832, "8": 0.0464732093942399, "9": 0.024060830265941763, "10": 0.010818476420062728, "11": 0.004224439994578583 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.85, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "CHW 4 - 5 CLE", "winner": "CLE" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "CHW 4 - 5 CLE", "winner": "CLE" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0305, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.302, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "CLE", "model_winner": "CLE", "simulation_winner": "CLE", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "CLE", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "CLE", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": -0.0028, "winner": "CLE", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260914	20260914_DET@TOR	DET	50.6%	51.0%	54.9%	50.0%	5.0-4.0	6-5	hit	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.5101, "sample_size": 450, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5489, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.5295, "published_confidence": 0.505654, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 3, "sample_weight": 0.0409, "home_net_margin": 3.0, "absolute_net_margin": 3.0, "home_average_margin": 1.0, "home_run_delta": 0.0205, "away_run_delta": -0.0205, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 3.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.6312, "recent_quality_edge": -0.152, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.4635 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.024657541109169154 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.023573299848026356 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.023276977297951983 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.022753589708159095 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.022386513888703094 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.05648637439482895, "1": 0.09035478004473478, "2": 0.12544861859855236, "3": 0.1511777757187428, "4": 0.15813111628874263, "5": 0.14356680641273167, "6": 0.11313528113266758, "7": 0.07738368350748868, "8": 0.04594180501588102, "9": 0.023674129970911006, "10": 0.010588813968992578, "11": 0.004110814945725941 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.054112991253100706, "1": 0.08671491494811824, "2": 0.12104951044813868, "3": 0.1472004868127847, "4": 0.15593098744806955, "5": 0.14389065379524502, "6": 0.11566706525048866, "7": 0.0809960465534369, "8": 0.04940772987969576, "9": 0.02625445168072814, "10": 0.012153125399539179, "11": 0.0049006081686854466, "12": 0.0017214283619688925 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.85, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "DET 5 - 4 TOR", "winner": "DET" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "DET 5 - 4 TOR", "winner": "DET" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0639, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0353, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "DET", "model_winner": "DET", "simulation_winner": "DET", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "DET", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.1667, "draw_majority_team": "TOR", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.4635, "winner": "DET", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260914	20260914_LAD@CIN	LAD	58.0%	92.0%	56.3%	50.0%	8.0-3.0	4-1	hit	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.92, "sample_size": 119, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.563, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.7415, "published_confidence": 0.58, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 3, "sample_weight": 0.0409, "home_net_margin": -17.0, "absolute_net_margin": 17.0, "home_average_margin": -5.667, "home_run_delta": -0.1159, "away_run_delta": 0.1159, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -13.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -2.3154, "recent_quality_edge": -1.112, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -1.8942 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.019215902971238305 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.018953021935637762 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.018881974742337077 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.018623661974944444 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 8, "probability": 0.018043862403489 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.06719876567068613, "1": 0.10659189853176425, "2": 0.1443129667115961, "3": 0.1667649460990073, "4": 0.16448353669566085, "5": 0.13847085031425563, "6": 0.09949758463965397, "7": 0.0610217941615969, "8": 0.03194299713702464, "9": 0.014271992471951194, "10": 0.005442667566803256 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.018811531567358646, "1": 0.031024557224117993, "2": 0.0472109079925498, "3": 0.06628792720073853, "4": 0.08587798574525297, "5": 0.10265605837301998, "6": 0.1132250822731473, "7": 0.11522747088485817, "8": 0.10819937178390279, "9": 0.09374514247822949, "10": 0.074942492384215, "11": 0.05527933579659218, "12": 0.03762294820057605, "13": 0.023626432936543693, "14": 0.013689853976752903, "15": 0.007319051421646923, "16": 0.003610489661919862, "17": 0.0016433600985778542 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.85, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 8, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "LAD 8 - 3 CIN", "winner": "LAD" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 8, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "LAD 8 - 3 CIN", "winner": "LAD" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": true, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0291, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -1.462, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 8, "home_runs": 3, "winner": "LAD", "model_winner": "LAD", "simulation_winner": "LAD", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "LAD", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "LAD", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": true, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 5, "simulation_margin": 5, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 8, "home_runs": 3 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 8, "home_runs": 3 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 5, "final_margin": 5, "winner_quality_edge": 1.8942, "winner": "LAD", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 8, "home_runs": 3, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260914	20260914_MIA@ARI	MIA	51.7%	59.4%	55.1%	50.0%	5.0-4.0	7-8	miss	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.593811, "sample_size": 584, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5514, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.572605, "published_confidence": 0.517426, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 3, "sample_weight": 0.0409, "home_net_margin": -14.0, "absolute_net_margin": 14.0, "home_average_margin": -4.667, "home_run_delta": -0.0955, "away_run_delta": 0.0955, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": -8.0 }, { "home_margin": -4.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.0233, "recent_quality_edge": 0.428, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.165 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.02133529638563516 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.020505719530818183 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.019958443652600532 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.019919383740625265 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.019860140843179032 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.052464162283958275, "1": 0.08418197713778118, "2": 0.11797248027543546, "3": 0.14439345513045246, "4": 0.15435457869244784, "5": 0.14411086818402663, "6": 0.11751117320064575, "7": 0.08368869573114211, "8": 0.05205466389015208, "9": 0.028278586888251314, "10": 0.013417171471762464, "11": 0.005559931570132464, "12": 0.002012255543812074 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.037244366341482565, "1": 0.06048453580303114, "2": 0.08787960383023259, "3": 0.11423305859134464, "4": 0.13284814551355756, "5": 0.13822263366832693, "6": 0.12866570600895777, "7": 0.10715351634718369, "8": 0.07983806888575332, "9": 0.0532198439001467, "10": 0.03173928545913028, "11": 0.016934823341914255, "12": 0.008083960302339875, "13": 0.0034524520065985524 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.85, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "MIA 5 - 4 ARI", "winner": "MIA" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "MIA 5 - 4 ARI", "winner": "MIA" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0107, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.078, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "MIA", "model_winner": "MIA", "simulation_winner": "MIA", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 5, "published_winner": "MIA", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.4, "draw_majority_team": "ARI", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": -0.165, "winner": "MIA", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260914	20260914_NYY@MIN	NYY	57.0%	76.2%	55.4%	50.0%	6.0-4.0	8-3	hit	Enhanced Prediction (2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.761678, "sample_size": 589, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5535, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.657589, "published_confidence": 0.57, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 3, "sample_weight": 0.0409, "home_net_margin": 9.0, "absolute_net_margin": 9.0, "home_average_margin": 3.0, "home_run_delta": 0.0614, "away_run_delta": -0.0614, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 5.0 }, { "home_margin": 7.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -1.4161, "recent_quality_edge": -0.968, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -1.2593 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.018218855891145518 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.017578884062738005 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.01756738266091541 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01728007942757887 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.016950295063921764 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.04792493801450017, "1": 0.07717461395217054, "2": 0.10932151341119033, "3": 0.13622445171604072, "4": 0.14932164498786565, "5": 0.1439821738934817, "6": 0.12212735486603177, "7": 0.09112455890752127, "8": 0.05981032895801785, "9": 0.03453307141042158, "10": 0.017539309271584754, "11": 0.007836245423451555, "12": 0.003079795187722034 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.023494632798650068, "1": 0.03858956235304799, "2": 0.05800505990820048, "3": 0.07979152050721638, "4": 0.1004482644573889, "5": 0.11572387532285157, "6": 0.12201081693565617, "7": 0.11772495584392015, "8": 0.10395217305153392, "9": 0.08400273834375427, "10": 0.062122389125945, "11": 0.042043386546768216, "12": 0.026040065164109026, "13": 0.014759827357489378, "14": 0.007656236206044682, "15": 0.0036344960774235525 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.85, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "NYY 6 - 4 MIN", "winner": "NYY" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "NYY 6 - 4 MIN", "winner": "NYY" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": true, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0048, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.8513, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "NYY", "model_winner": "NYY", "simulation_winner": "NYY", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "NYY", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "NYY", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": true, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": 1.2593, "winner": "NYY", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260914	20260914_SD@COL	SD	58.0%	78.5%	56.9%	50.0%	8.0-5.0	8-7	hit	Embedded Savant Run Environment (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.784898, "sample_size": 123, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5691, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.676999, "published_confidence": 0.58, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -1.0, "absolute_net_margin": 1.0, "home_average_margin": -0.2, "home_run_delta": -0.0058, "away_run_delta": 0.0058, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": 5.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -1.5436, "recent_quality_edge": -1.036, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -1.366 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.014899277126143204 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 8, "probability": 0.014726907194188755 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.014162563184426866 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.0140767302437853 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.014003755619103882 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.03483272164995814, "1": 0.0566758196361497, "2": 0.08281737524696232, "3": 0.10868218653433698, "4": 0.1280880236543905, "5": 0.13557260300624807, "6": 0.1288690410881853, "7": 0.11001160776062027, "8": 0.08434156957906916, "9": 0.05807083870242589, "10": 0.035907715081269366, "11": 0.01994025440757192, "12": 0.009944589754547907, "13": 0.004454062441515815, "14": 0.001791591456748696 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.015173569479598543, "1": 0.025110442742288745, "2": 0.038605275827592066, "3": 0.0551397288833289, "4": 0.07316582434655869, "5": 0.090193988164464, "6": 0.1032934037451394, "7": 0.10989887924078988, "8": 0.10862745766937913, "9": 0.0997497105934547, "10": 0.08509603999302795, "11": 0.0674423560126162, "12": 0.04965715037617499, "13": 0.033966948338008195, "14": 0.021585243136480907, "15": 0.012743333124943152, "16": 0.006989318065582915, "17": 0.0035613302605717752 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.85, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 8, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "SD 8 - 5 COL", "winner": "SD" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 8, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "SD 8 - 5 COL", "winner": "SD" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": true, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0346, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -1.246, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 8, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "SD", "model_winner": "SD", "simulation_winner": "SD", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "SD", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5, "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": true, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 3, "simulation_margin": 3, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 8, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 8, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 3, "final_margin": 3, "winner_quality_edge": 1.366, "winner": "SD", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 8, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260914	20260914_SEA@LAA	LAA	52.8%	50.5%	55.8%	50.0%	5.0-6.0	4-6	hit	Enhanced Prediction (-1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.505164, "sample_size": 351, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5584, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.531782, "published_confidence": 0.527588, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -8.0, "absolute_net_margin": 8.0, "home_average_margin": -1.6, "home_run_delta": -0.0462, "away_run_delta": 0.0462, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -5.0 }, { "home_margin": -4.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.2596, "recent_quality_edge": -0.256, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.2584 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.020001574651533068 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.0199416814276376 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.019711255707702324 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.0196522318222368 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.018057501745005384 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.040714125392377606, "1": 0.06593570818955725, "2": 0.09500354761266293, "3": 0.12178745451629738, "4": 0.13890211746773906, "5": 0.1409479493841365, "6": 0.1272483735056277, "7": 0.10220903795226853, "8": 0.07304154377036018, "9": 0.04644020940759696, "10": 0.0262701152245417, "11": 0.013221275911519859, "12": 0.005920090446837943, "13": 0.002358451218476238 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.04233626659151929, "1": 0.06847425111783526, "2": 0.09827972780915432, "3": 0.12517641767954962, "4": 0.14148259350186768, "5": 0.14190752500429227, "6": 0.12630768021691424, "7": 0.09976449580785163, "8": 0.06992688543476762, "9": 0.04349449351562407, "10": 0.024007464242701997, "11": 0.011759266240570209, "12": 0.0051113553606130695, "13": 0.001971577476738934 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.85, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "SEA 5 - 6 LAA", "winner": "LAA" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "SEA 5 - 6 LAA", "winner": "LAA" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0359, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.326, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "winner": "LAA", "model_winner": "LAA", "simulation_winner": "LAA", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 4, "published_winner": "LAA", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.25, "draw_majority_team": "SEA", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": -0.2584, "winner": "LAA", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260914	20260914_SF@STL	STL	50.5%	46.0%	55.8%	50.0%	4.0-5.0	1-2	hit	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.4601, "sample_size": 547, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5576, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.50885, "published_confidence": 0.505, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 3, "sample_weight": 0.0409, "home_net_margin": -3.0, "absolute_net_margin": 3.0, "home_average_margin": -1.0, "home_run_delta": -0.0205, "away_run_delta": 0.0205, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.5867, "recent_quality_edge": 0.112, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.4205 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02104729129886549 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.020898194176320346 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.020636238952138744 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.02049005368752544 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.018953564147159006 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.04382561869444227, "1": 0.07080354898301207, "2": 0.10128109601052032, "3": 0.12827681023957582, "4": 0.14385147062404283, "5": 0.1428324397169594, "6": 0.12556997188474345, "7": 0.09774423093758407, "8": 0.06736632637824316, "9": 0.041109386017082784, "10": 0.022211889804441668, "11": 0.010626161795275323, "12": 0.004501048914076931 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.04558633724884025, "1": 0.0735449708240523, "2": 0.10476115423765613, "3": 0.13175787543176617, "4": 0.1463126599092809, "5": 0.1434551823670385, "6": 0.124187988257889, "7": 0.09492310935732229, "8": 0.06406094390217866, "9": 0.03817189538894327, "10": 0.020082747609440895, "11": 0.009328923879948922, "12": 0.0038262115856427365 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.85, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "SF 4 - 5 STL", "winner": "STL" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "SF 4 - 5 STL", "winner": "STL" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0357, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.238, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "STL", "model_winner": "STL", "simulation_winner": "STL", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "STL", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.3333, "draw_majority_team": "SF", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.4205, "winner": "STL", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }

Starting-pitcher component quality

H	{ "mae": 2.3, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.3 }
R	{ "mae": 1.75, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.45 }
ER	{ "mae": 1.9, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.5 }
BB	{ "mae": 0.85, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": -0.25 }
SO	{ "mae": 1.9, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.5 }
HR	{ "mae": 0.85, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.55 }
IP_outs	{ "mae_outs": 3.6, "mae_innings": 1.2, "bias_outs": 0.2 }

IP error is measured in outs. No single-outing ERA is used; ER and workload are compared directly.

Date

Game

Side

Pred starter

Actual starter

Match

Pred IP

Actual IP

Δ outs

Pred ER

Actual ER

Δ ER

H P/A

BB P/A

SO P/A

All context

20260914

20260914_ATL@CHC

away

Reynaldo López

True

4.2

3.0

-5

5/6

2/2

4/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.1266375545851535,
      "WHIP": 1.3886462882096071,
      "IP": 76.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 25,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.528,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.933,
      "last_start_IP": 4.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.2631,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0224,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9823,
      "walk_factor": 1.01,
      "homer_factor": 1.0189,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 21.6,
      "bb_percent": 9.7,
      "woba": 0.329,
      "xwoba": 0.335,
      "barrel_percent": 7.6,
      "hard_hit_percent": 36.2,
      "whiff_percent": 22.3
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 254,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 25.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8333,
        "prior_weight": 0.1667
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "625643",
      "report_date": "20260914",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 25,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 24.2,
            "ER": 16.0,
            "R": 16.0,
            "H": 29.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 25.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 110.0,
            "Pitches": 419.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 3.2,
            "R": 3.2,
            "H": 5.8,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 5.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 22.0,
            "Pitches": 83.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.8378,
            "WHIP": 1.5811,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.64865,
            "H_per_IP": 1.17568,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.40541,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.01351,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.2027
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 38.2,
            "ER": 18.0,
            "R": 19.0,
            "H": 37.0,
            "BB": 14.0,
            "SO": 37.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 163.0,
            "Pitches": 657.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.0,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 1.9,
            "H": 3.7,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 3.7,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 16.3,
            "Pitches": 65.7
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.1897,
            "WHIP": 1.319,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.46552,
            "H_per_IP": 0.9569,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.36207,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.9569,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12931
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 25,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 76.1,
            "ER": 35.0,
            "R": 39.0,
            "H": 74.0,
            "BB": 32.0,
            "SO": 71.0,
            "HR": 11.0,
            "BF": 329.0,
            "Pitches": 1306.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.0,
            "ER": 1.4,
            "R": 1.56,
            "H": 2.96,
            "BB": 1.28,
            "SO": 2.84,
            "HR": 0.44,
            "BF": 13.16,
            "Pitches": 52.24
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.1266,
            "WHIP": 1.3886,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.45852,
            "H_per_IP": 0.96943,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.41921,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.93013,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1441
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.332,
        "predicted_H": 4.51,
        "predicted_BB": 1.683,
        "predicted_SO": 4.193,
        "predicted_HR": 0.701,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.8584,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.4337
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4204,
      "form_weight": 0.5796,
      "form_reliability": 0.8333,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 25.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8333,
        "prior_weight": 0.1667
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.2,
          "form": 4.1,
          "final": 4.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.332,
          "final": 2.6128,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.51,
          "final": 4.716,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.683,
          "final": 1.8163,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 4.193,
          "final": 4.1119,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 0.701,
          "final": 1.6676,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.8584,
          "final": 4.8584,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.4337,
          "final": 1.4337,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 38.2,
        "ER": 18,
        "H": 37,
        "BB": 14,
        "SO": 37,
        "HR": 5,
        "ERA": 4.189655172413794,
        "WHIP": 1.3189655172413794,
        "K9": 8.612068965517242,
        "HR9": 1.163793103448276,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-09T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9711639946522388,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 3.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 25.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8333,
          "prior_weight": 0.1667
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "625643",
      "player_name": "Reynaldo L\u00f3pez",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "ATL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 3.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 3.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.2,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.6667,
              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.6667,
              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.6667,
            "after": 4.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.1,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.6667,
            "after": 4.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.1,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "ATL",
        "games": 150,
        "wins": 88,
        "losses": 62,
        "win_pct": 0.5867,
        "runs_scored": 693.0,
        "runs_allowed": 577.0,
        "run_differential": 116.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.7733,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.62,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8467,
        "offense_index": 1.0279,
        "defense_index": 1.1685,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2,
          "run_differential": -2.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1683
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "CHC",
        "games": 150,
        "wins": 83,
        "losses": 67,
        "win_pct": 0.5533,
        "runs_scored": 799.0,
        "runs_allowed": 661.0,
        "run_differential": 138.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.92,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.3267,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4067,
        "offense_index": 1.1851,
        "defense_index": 1.02,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2,
          "run_differential": 6.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1579
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0104,
        "offense_edge": 0.0279,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.1851,
        "defense_strength": 0.1685,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.02,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9981,
        "run_prevention": 1.0122,
        "strikeout": 0.9855
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "625643",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "625643",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 298.0,
            "k_percent": 21.6,
            "bb_percent": 9.7,
            "woba": 0.329,
            "xwoba": 0.335,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 38.4,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.6,
            "hard_hit_percent": 36.2,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.3154,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.6902,
            "whiff_percent": 22.3,
            "swing_percent": 45.7
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 130.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6536,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9166,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.3454,
            "command_and_miss": -0.1857,
            "regression_edge": -0.1714,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.6571,
            "barrel_edge": -0.1111,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.2429,
            "whiff_edge": -0.3857,
            "bb_edge": -0.125,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0526
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "625643",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 81,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 81,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.90966948030467,
              "release_spin_rate": 2158.430839119507,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 81,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.90966948030467,
                "release_spin_rate": 2158.430839119507,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.9097,
              "release_spin_rate": 2158.4308,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0526,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.3757,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.2631,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0224,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9823,
          "walk_factor": 1.01,
          "homer_factor": 1.0189,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.006,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "625643",
            "espn_id": 33860,
            "player_name": "Reynaldo Lopez",
            "team": "ATL",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 254,
            "espn_total_ranked": 861,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 254,
              "gp_value": 25.0,
              "gp_rank": "329",
              "gs_value": 12.0,
              "gs_rank": "159",
              "qs_value": 1.0,
              "qs_rank": "178",
              "era_value": 4.1266,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 4.0,
              "w_rank": "192",
              "l_value": 4.0,
              "l_rank": "190",
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": "251",
              "hld_value": 1.0,
              "hld_rank": "272",
              "ip_value": 76.1,
              "ip_rank": "171",
              "h_value": 74.0,
              "h_rank": "157",
              "er_value": 35.0,
              "er_rank": "168",
              "hr_value": 11.0,
              "hr_rank": "150",
              "bb_value": 32.0,
              "bb_rank": "151",
              "k_value": 71.0,
              "k_rank": "183",
              "k_per_9_value": 8.371179,
              "k_per_9_rank": 28.0,
              "whip_value": 1.3886,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.54,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0224,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0224,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.01,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0189,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9823,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.2,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 3,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 91,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +2."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was -3."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260914_ATL@CHC.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260914

20260914_ATL@CHC

home

David Peterson

True

4.1

6.0

-3

6/3

3/3

6/7

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "WHIP": 1.5761421319796953,
      "IP": 131.1,
      "games_started": null,
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      "role_avg_IP": 4.967,
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      "last_start_IP": 4.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.3554,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0302,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9691,
      "walk_factor": 1.012,
      "homer_factor": 1.0261,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 19.5,
      "bb_percent": 9.8,
      "woba": 0.341,
      "xwoba": 0.341,
      "barrel_percent": 6.3,
      "hard_hit_percent": 40.6,
      "whiff_percent": 22.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 831,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 29.0,
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        "data_weight": 0.8529,
        "prior_weight": 0.1471
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "656849",
      "report_date": "20260914",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 29,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 20.1,
            "ER": 11.0,
            "R": 11.0,
            "H": 23.0,
            "BB": 13.0,
            "SO": 23.0,
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            "BF": 96.0,
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          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.0,
            "ER": 2.2,
            "R": 2.2,
            "H": 4.6,
            "BB": 2.6,
            "SO": 4.6,
            "HR": 0.6,
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            "Pitches": 77.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.8689,
            "WHIP": 1.7705,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.54098,
            "H_per_IP": 1.13115,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.63934,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.13115,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.14754
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 49.0,
            "ER": 18.0,
            "R": 20.0,
            "H": 50.0,
            "BB": 22.0,
            "SO": 47.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 217.0,
            "Pitches": 843.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 4.7,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 21.7,
            "Pitches": 84.3
          },
          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.4694,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.36735,
            "H_per_IP": 1.02041,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.44898,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.95918,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10204
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        },
        "season": {
          "games": 29,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 131.1,
            "ER": 77.0,
            "R": 84.0,
            "H": 148.0,
            "BB": 59.0,
            "SO": 117.0,
            "HR": 14.0,
            "BF": 599.0,
            "Pitches": 2217.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.6552,
            "R": 2.8966,
            "H": 5.1034,
            "BB": 2.0345,
            "SO": 4.0345,
            "HR": 0.4828,
            "BF": 20.6552,
            "Pitches": 76.4483
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.2766,
            "WHIP": 1.5761,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.58629,
            "H_per_IP": 1.1269,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.44924,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.89086,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1066
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.242,
        "predicted_H": 4.899,
        "predicted_BB": 2.329,
        "predicted_SO": 4.607,
        "predicted_HR": 0.579,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.426,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.5853
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
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      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
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          "final": 4.2,
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
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          "form": 2.242,
          "final": 2.9666,
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 6.0,
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        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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          "final": 2.6056,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.5853,
          "final": 1.5853,
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 49.0,
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        "H": 50,
        "BB": 22,
        "SO": 47,
        "HR": 5,
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        "K9": 8.632653061224492,
        "HR9": 0.9183673469387756,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
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      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-08T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8755271192124077,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 6.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 6.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8529,
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      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.1,
          "predicted_ER": 4,
          "predicted_H": 6,
          "predicted_BB": 3,
          "predicted_SO": 6,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "656849",
      "player_name": "David Peterson",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CHC",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
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          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
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        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
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        {
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          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
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            {
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "changed_metrics": [
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        ],
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
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      "team": {
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        "runs_scored": 799.0,
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        "offense_index": 1.1851,
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        "current_streak": "L1",
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        "offense_index": 1.0279,
        "defense_index": 1.1685,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2,
          "run_differential": -2.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1683
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0104,
        "offense_edge": 0.1851,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0279,
        "defense_strength": 0.02,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1685,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9991,
        "run_prevention": 1.003,
        "strikeout": 0.9975
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "656849",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "656849",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 574.0,
            "k_percent": 19.5,
            "bb_percent": 9.8,
            "woba": 0.341,
            "xwoba": 0.341,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.8,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 40.6,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.04,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.4307,
            "whiff_percent": 22.1,
            "swing_percent": 46.0
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 130.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6536,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9166,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.4709,
            "command_and_miss": -0.3357,
            "regression_edge": 0.0,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.8286,
            "barrel_edge": 0.1778,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.3857,
            "whiff_edge": -0.4143,
            "bb_edge": -0.15,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0546
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "656849",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 78,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 78,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.87458474625387,
              "release_spin_rate": 2121.7196924176556,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 78,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.87458474625387,
                "release_spin_rate": 2121.7196924176556,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.8746,
              "release_spin_rate": 2121.7197,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0546,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.3897,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.3554,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0302,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9691,
          "walk_factor": 1.012,
          "homer_factor": 1.0261,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.0,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "656849",
            "espn_id": 40921,
            "player_name": "David Peterson",
            "team": "CHC",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 831,
            "espn_total_ranked": 861,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 831,
              "gp_value": 29.0,
              "gp_rank": "244",
              "gs_value": 20.0,
              "gs_rank": "100",
              "qs_value": 3.0,
              "qs_rank": "141",
              "era_value": 5.2766,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 7.0,
              "w_rank": "87",
              "l_value": 8.0,
              "l_rank": "64",
              "sv_value": 1.0,
              "sv_rank": "140",
              "hld_value": 1.0,
              "hld_rank": "272",
              "ip_value": 131.1,
              "ip_rank": "84",
              "h_value": 148.0,
              "h_rank": "25",
              "er_value": 77.0,
              "er_rank": "18",
              "hr_value": 14.0,
              "hr_rank": "109",
              "bb_value": 59.0,
              "bb_rank": "18",
              "k_value": 117.0,
              "k_rank": "78",
              "k_per_9_value": 8.017767,
              "k_per_9_rank": 25.0,
              "whip_value": 1.5761,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": -0.82,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0302,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0302,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.012,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0261,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9691,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.1,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 91,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260914_ATL@CHC.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260914

20260914_BAL@NYM

away

Brandon Young

True

5.1

5.0

-1

-2

6/5

1/5

8/6

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.7109004739336497,
      "WHIP": 1.3507109004739337,
      "IP": 140.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 25,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.627,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.4,
      "last_start_IP": 3.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.1743,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0148,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9697,
      "walk_factor": 0.982,
      "homer_factor": 1.0083,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 18.5,
      "bb_percent": 8.3,
      "woba": 0.325,
      "xwoba": 0.322,
      "barrel_percent": 6.7,
      "hard_hit_percent": 39.1,
      "whiff_percent": 23.2
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 93,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 25.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8333,
        "prior_weight": 0.1667
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "687064",
      "report_date": "20260914",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 25,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 27.0,
            "ER": 16.0,
            "R": 16.0,
            "H": 31.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 19.0,
            "HR": 8.0,
            "BF": 118.0,
            "Pitches": 441.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 3.2,
            "R": 3.2,
            "H": 6.2,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 3.8,
            "HR": 1.6,
            "BF": 23.6,
            "Pitches": 88.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.3333,
            "WHIP": 1.4815,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.59259,
            "H_per_IP": 1.14815,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.33333,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.7037,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.2963
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 56.1,
            "ER": 26.0,
            "R": 27.0,
            "H": 57.0,
            "BB": 19.0,
            "SO": 45.0,
            "HR": 11.0,
            "BF": 242.0,
            "Pitches": 926.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.6,
            "R": 2.7,
            "H": 5.7,
            "BB": 1.9,
            "SO": 4.5,
            "HR": 1.1,
            "BF": 24.2,
            "Pitches": 92.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.1538,
            "WHIP": 1.3491,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.46154,
            "H_per_IP": 1.01183,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.33728,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.79882,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.19527
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 25,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 140.2,
            "ER": 58.0,
            "R": 67.0,
            "H": 140.0,
            "BB": 50.0,
            "SO": 112.0,
            "HR": 20.0,
            "BF": 605.0,
            "Pitches": 2258.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.32,
            "R": 2.68,
            "H": 5.6,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 4.48,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 24.2,
            "Pitches": 90.32
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.7109,
            "WHIP": 1.3507,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.41232,
            "H_per_IP": 0.99526,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.35545,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.79621,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.14218
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.798,
        "predicted_H": 5.783,
        "predicted_BB": 1.891,
        "predicted_SO": 4.313,
        "predicted_HR": 1.187,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.5894,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3988
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4204,
      "form_weight": 0.5796,
      "form_reliability": 0.8333,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 25.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8333,
        "prior_weight": 0.1667
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.1,
          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.798,
          "final": 2.8829,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 5.783,
          "final": 5.8742,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.891,
          "final": 1.5164,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 4.313,
          "final": 5.0223,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.187,
          "final": 1.5288,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.5894,
          "final": 4.5894,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3988,
          "final": 1.3988,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 56.1,
        "ER": 26,
        "H": 57,
        "BB": 19,
        "SO": 45,
        "HR": 11,
        "ERA": 4.153846153846153,
        "WHIP": 1.349112426035503,
        "K9": 7.189349112426036,
        "HR9": 1.7573964497041419,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 5,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-08T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9678891527832324,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 6.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 6.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 25.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8333,
          "prior_weight": 0.1667
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "687064",
      "player_name": "Brandon Young",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "BAL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.1,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0438,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 2.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.3333,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 1,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 2.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.3333,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0438,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0437,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 8.0,
            "delta": 2.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.3333,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 2,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 1,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
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            "delta": 2.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.3333,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0437,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "BAL",
        "games": 150,
        "wins": 72,
        "losses": 78,
        "win_pct": 0.48,
        "runs_scored": 672.0,
        "runs_allowed": 707.0,
        "run_differential": -35.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2333,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.48,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7133,
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          "games": 10,
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          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.7,
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        },
        "available": true,
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      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "NYM",
        "games": 149,
        "wins": 69,
        "losses": 80,
        "win_pct": 0.4631,
        "runs_scored": 643.0,
        "runs_allowed": 677.0,
        "run_differential": -34.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2282,
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        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5436,
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          "run_differential": 22.0
        },
        "available": true,
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      },
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        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.4
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      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9952,
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        "strikeout": 0.9995
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "687064",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "687064",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 579.0,
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            "xwoba": 0.322,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.6,
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            "avg_best_speed": 78.5669,
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          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 130.0,
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            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
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            "avg_best_speed": 77.6536,
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            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
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          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.191,
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            "regression_edge": 0.0857,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.2857,
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            "pitch_design_score": -0.0707
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "687064",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 91,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 91,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.58655548816917,
              "release_spin_rate": 2064.3292733692897,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 91,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.58655548816917,
                "release_spin_rate": 2064.3292733692897,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.5866,
              "release_spin_rate": 2064.3293,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
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              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
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            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0707,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
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              "velocity_edge": -0.5049,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.1743,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0148,
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          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_id": "687064",
            "espn_id": 4414339,
            "player_name": "Brandon Young",
            "team": "BAL",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 93,
            "espn_total_ranked": 861,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 93,
              "gp_value": 25.0,
              "gp_rank": "329",
              "gs_value": 25.0,
              "gs_rank": "66",
              "qs_value": 12.0,
              "qs_rank": "37",
              "era_value": 3.7109,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 9.0,
              "w_rank": "44",
              "l_value": 4.0,
              "l_rank": "190",
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": "251",
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": "354",
              "ip_value": 140.2,
              "ip_rank": "60",
              "h_value": 140.0,
              "h_rank": "39",
              "er_value": 58.0,
              "er_rank": "78",
              "hr_value": 20.0,
              "hr_rank": "40",
              "bb_value": 50.0,
              "bb_rank": "45",
              "k_value": 112.0,
              "k_rank": "84",
              "k_per_9_value": 7.1658764,
              "k_per_9_rank": 37.0,
              "whip_value": 1.3507,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 1.78,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0148,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0148,
            "adjusted": 6
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          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.982,
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          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0083,
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9697,
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
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      "predicted_SO": 8,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 24,
      "Pitches": 101,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was +4."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260914_BAL@NYM.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260914

20260914_BAL@NYM

home

Jonah Tong

True

5.0

6.0

-1

6/4

2/1

5/6

Last 10 before this game (4 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "games_started": null,
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      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
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      "hard_hit_percent": 31.1,
      "whiff_percent": 27.3
    },
    "espn_rank": {
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      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
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      "effective_weights": {
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      "season_year": 2026,
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            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 14.0,
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          },
          "per_game": {
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            "R": 2.5,
            "H": 3.0,
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            "Pitches": 68.5
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          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.3333,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.53333,
            "H_per_IP": 0.8,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.53333,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.93333,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13333
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 4,
          "totals": {
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            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 10.0,
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            "BB": 8.0,
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            "Pitches": 274.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.2,
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            "H": 3.0,
            "BB": 2.0,
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            "Pitches": 68.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.8,
            "WHIP": 1.3333,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.53333,
            "H_per_IP": 0.8,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.53333,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.93333,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13333
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        },
        "season": {
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          },
          "per_game": {
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          },
          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.3333,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.53333,
            "H_per_IP": 0.8,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.53333,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.93333,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13333
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
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        "predicted_ER": 2.38,
        "predicted_H": 4.121,
        "predicted_BB": 2.039,
        "predicted_SO": 4.301,
        "predicted_HR": 0.649,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.6648,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3413
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.5847,
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      "form_reliability": 0.4444,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_size": 4.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.4444,
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      "applied_metrics": {
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          "form": 4.2,
          "final": 5.1,
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.38,
          "final": 1.5731,
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
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          "form": 4.121,
          "final": 5.2197,
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        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.039,
          "final": 2.0162,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.301,
          "final": 4.7097,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.649,
          "final": 0.2695,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.6648,
          "final": 4.6648,
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3413,
          "final": 1.3413,
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    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
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        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "insufficient_data"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 15.0,
        "ER": 8,
        "H": 12,
        "BB": 8,
        "SO": 14,
        "HR": 2,
        "ERA": 4.8,
        "WHIP": 1.3333333333333333,
        "K9": 8.4,
        "HR9": 1.2,
        "games_pitched": 4,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
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      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 4,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 4,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-07T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.019838375485754,
    "stat_evolution": [
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        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 6.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 4.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.4444,
          "prior_weight": 0.5556
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      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 1,
          "predicted_H": 6,
          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 5,
          "predicted_HR": 0
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "804636",
      "player_name": "Jonah Tong",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "NYM",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": -0.3333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0625,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": -0.3333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0625,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 1.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": -0.3333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0625,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": -0.3333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0625,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "NYM",
        "games": 149,
        "wins": 69,
        "losses": 80,
        "win_pct": 0.4631,
        "runs_scored": 643.0,
        "runs_allowed": 677.0,
        "run_differential": -34.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2282,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3154,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5436,
        "offense_index": 0.9593,
        "defense_index": 0.99,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 7.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.4,
          "run_differential": 22.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0107
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "BAL",
        "games": 150,
        "wins": 72,
        "losses": 78,
        "win_pct": 0.48,
        "runs_scored": 672.0,
        "runs_allowed": 707.0,
        "run_differential": -35.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2333,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.48,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7133,
        "offense_index": 0.9959,
        "defense_index": 0.9544,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.2,
          "run_differential": -15.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1155
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.1262,
        "offense_edge": -0.0407,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0041,
        "defense_strength": -0.01,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0456,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.4
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0049,
        "run_prevention": 0.994,
        "strikeout": 1.0041
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "804636",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "804636",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 46.0,
            "k_percent": 20.6,
            "bb_percent": 11.8,
            "woba": 0.294,
            "xwoba": 0.297,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 31.1,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.7,
            "hard_hit_percent": 31.1,
            "avg_best_speed": 83.1395,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.4934,
            "whiff_percent": 27.3,
            "swing_percent": 50.7
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 130.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6536,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9166,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.274,
            "command_and_miss": -0.105,
            "regression_edge": -0.0857,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.4286,
            "barrel_edge": 0.0889,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.9714,
            "whiff_edge": 0.3286,
            "bb_edge": -0.65,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.1032
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "804636",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 62,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 62,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 91.6914062264094,
              "release_spin_rate": 2121.2409940513935,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 62,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 91.6914062264094,
                "release_spin_rate": 2121.2409940513935,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 91.6914,
              "release_spin_rate": 2121.241,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.1032,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.737,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0566,
          "sample_weight": 0.45,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9952,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0023,
          "walk_factor": 1.0234,
          "homer_factor": 0.9735,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.003,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "804636",
            "espn_id": 5214984,
            "player_name": "Jonah Tong",
            "team": "NYM",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 625,
            "espn_total_ranked": 861,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 625,
              "gp_value": 4.0,
              "gp_rank": "671",
              "gs_value": 1.0,
              "gs_rank": "299",
              "qs_value": 0.0,
              "qs_rank": "210",
              "era_value": 4.8,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 2.0,
              "w_rank": "317",
              "l_value": 1.0,
              "l_rank": "429",
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": "251",
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": "354",
              "ip_value": 15.0,
              "ip_rank": "570",
              "h_value": 12.0,
              "h_rank": "610",
              "er_value": 8.0,
              "er_rank": "588",
              "hr_value": 2.0,
              "hr_rank": "530",
              "bb_value": 8.0,
              "bb_rank": "528",
              "k_value": 14.0,
              "k_rank": "547",
              "k_per_9_value": 8.400001,
              "k_per_9_rank": 25.0,
              "whip_value": 1.3333,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": -0.15,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9978,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9978,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0105,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9881,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 1.001,
            "adjusted": 7
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 25,
      "Pitches": 96,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 4 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260914_BAL@NYM.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260914

20260914_CHW@CLE

away

Sean Newcomb

True

5.0

1.0

-12

-3

6/1

0/0

3/0

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.774703557312253,
      "WHIP": 1.1146245059288538,
      "IP": 84.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 53,
      "role_avg_IP": 1.933,
      "recent_avg_IP": 1.933,
      "last_start_IP": 1.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.1229,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9896,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9937,
      "walk_factor": 0.99,
      "homer_factor": 0.9514,
      "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 22.6,
      "bb_percent": 8.7,
      "woba": 0.27,
      "xwoba": 0.304,
      "barrel_percent": 5.2,
      "hard_hit_percent": 36.5,
      "whiff_percent": 23.3
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 59,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.2,
      "season_IP": 84.1,
      "season_ERA": 2.775,
      "season_WHIP": 1.115,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 17.064,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7734,
        "prior_weight": 0.2266
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "656794",
      "report_date": "20260914",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 53,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 9.1,
            "ER": 7.0,
            "R": 7.0,
            "H": 12.0,
            "BB": 3.0,
            "SO": 10.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 43.0,
            "Pitches": 176.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 2.0,
            "ER": 1.4,
            "R": 1.4,
            "H": 2.4,
            "BB": 0.6,
            "SO": 2.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 8.6,
            "Pitches": 35.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.75,
            "WHIP": 1.6071,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.75,
            "H_per_IP": 1.28571,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.32143,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.07143,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 20.0,
            "ER": 7.0,
            "R": 7.0,
            "H": 16.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 18.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 82.0,
            "Pitches": 345.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 2.0,
            "ER": 0.7,
            "R": 0.7,
            "H": 1.6,
            "BB": 0.7,
            "SO": 1.8,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 8.2,
            "Pitches": 34.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.15,
            "WHIP": 1.15,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.35,
            "H_per_IP": 0.8,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.35,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.9,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 53,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 84.1,
            "ER": 26.0,
            "R": 29.0,
            "H": 64.0,
            "BB": 30.0,
            "SO": 78.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 343.0,
            "Pitches": 1342.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.2,
            "ER": 0.4906,
            "R": 0.5472,
            "H": 1.2075,
            "BB": 0.566,
            "SO": 1.4717,
            "HR": 0.0377,
            "BF": 6.4717,
            "Pitches": 25.3208
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.7747,
            "WHIP": 1.1146,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.3083,
            "H_per_IP": 0.75889,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.35573,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.9249,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.02372
          }
        }
      },
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    "recent_form_analysis": {
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      "pitching": {
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    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
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        {
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          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
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      "total_change": {
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
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        "run_differential_per_game": 0.2282,
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      "opponent": {
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      "edges": {
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      "player_factors": {
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
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        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "656794",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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          "league_medians": {
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            "woba": 0.316,
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          "components": {
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            "pitch_design_score": -0.007
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "656794",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 37,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 37,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
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              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
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            },
            "pitch_mix": [
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                "pitches": 37,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.72425840830473,
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                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
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                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.7243,
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            "components": {
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
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          "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_name": "Sean Newcomb",
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            "espn_rank": 59,
            "espn_total_ranked": 861,
            "metrics": {
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              "qs_rank": "210",
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              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 2.0,
              "w_rank": "317",
              "l_value": 4.0,
              "l_rank": "190",
              "sv_value": 4.0,
              "sv_rank": "54",
              "hld_value": 11.0,
              "hld_rank": "77",
              "ip_value": 84.1,
              "ip_rank": "155",
              "h_value": 66.0,
              "h_rank": "182",
              "er_value": 26.0,
              "er_rank": "236",
              "hr_value": 2.0,
              "hr_rank": "530",
              "bb_value": 30.0,
              "bb_rank": "176",
              "k_value": 78.0,
              "k_rank": "159",
              "k_per_9_value": 8.324111,
              "k_per_9_rank": 27.0,
              "whip_value": 1.1383,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 2.41,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9896,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9896,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.99,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9514,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9937,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 3,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 81,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least three innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -12 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 5",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was -5."
    },
    {
      "code": "MISSED_SHUTDOWN",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Model missed a shutdown outing",
      "detail": "The pitcher allowed zero earned runs after a projection of 3 ER."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260914_CHW@CLE.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260914

20260914_CHW@CLE

home

Gavin Williams

True

5.1

5.0

-1

2/4

4/3

7/7

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.7810650887573964,
      "WHIP": 1.0946745562130178,
      "IP": 169.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 29,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.828,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.867,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.2301,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9804,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.1086,
      "walk_factor": 0.972,
      "homer_factor": 1.1249,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 33.5,
      "bb_percent": 7.8,
      "woba": 0.293,
      "xwoba": 0.301,
      "barrel_percent": 11.6,
      "hard_hit_percent": 47.4,
      "whiff_percent": 32.5
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 51,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 29.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8529,
        "prior_weight": 0.1471
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "668909",
      "report_date": "20260914",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 29,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 24.1,
            "ER": 14.0,
            "R": 15.0,
            "H": 23.0,
            "BB": 12.0,
            "SO": 43.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 108.0,
            "Pitches": 445.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.8,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 4.6,
            "BB": 2.4,
            "SO": 8.6,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 21.6,
            "Pitches": 89.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.1781,
            "WHIP": 1.4384,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.57534,
            "H_per_IP": 0.94521,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.49315,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.76712,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.20548
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 55.2,
            "ER": 23.0,
            "R": 24.0,
            "H": 39.0,
            "BB": 16.0,
            "SO": 94.0,
            "HR": 10.0,
            "BF": 221.0,
            "Pitches": 918.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.3,
            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 3.9,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 9.4,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 22.1,
            "Pitches": 91.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.7186,
            "WHIP": 0.988,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.41317,
            "H_per_IP": 0.7006,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.28743,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.68862,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.17964
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 29,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 169.0,
            "ER": 71.0,
            "R": 75.0,
            "H": 132.0,
            "BB": 53.0,
            "SO": 228.0,
            "HR": 27.0,
            "BF": 681.0,
            "Pitches": 2715.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.4483,
            "R": 2.5862,
            "H": 4.5517,
            "BB": 1.8276,
            "SO": 7.8621,
            "HR": 0.931,
            "BF": 23.4828,
            "Pitches": 93.6207
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.7811,
            "WHIP": 1.0947,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.42012,
            "H_per_IP": 0.78107,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.31361,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.34911,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15976
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.629,
        "predicted_H": 4.55,
        "predicted_BB": 2.056,
        "predicted_SO": 8.314,
        "predicted_HR": 0.973,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.4127,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.232
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4121,
      "form_weight": 0.5879,
      "form_reliability": 0.8529,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 29.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8529,
        "prior_weight": 0.1471
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.1,
          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.629,
          "final": 1.9576,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 4.55,
          "final": 3.499,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.056,
          "final": 2.8572,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 8.314,
          "final": 5.7117,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.973,
          "final": 0.572,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.4127,
          "final": 4.4127,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.232,
          "final": 1.232,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 55.2,
        "ER": 23,
        "H": 39,
        "BB": 16,
        "SO": 94,
        "HR": 10,
        "ERA": 3.718562874251497,
        "WHIP": 0.9880239520958083,
        "K9": 15.19760479041916,
        "HR9": 1.6167664670658681,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 4,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-06T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9098925719803411,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 4.0,
          "predicted_SO": 2.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 29.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8529,
          "prior_weight": 0.1471
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.1,
          "predicted_ER": 1,
          "predicted_H": 2,
          "predicted_BB": 4,
          "predicted_SO": 8,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "668909",
      "player_name": "Gavin Williams",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CLE",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 2.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.1,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0438,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 6.0,
              "percent_delta": 3.0,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
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            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": {
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              "percent_delta": 3.0,
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            },
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0438,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.1,
            "predicted_R": 1.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 4.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.1,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 8.0,
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              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.125,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
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              "after": 7.0,
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              "percent_delta": -0.125,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 1.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 2.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0437,
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            "projection_effect": "worse",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 2.0,
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            "delta": 5.0,
            "percent_delta": 2.5,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 2,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
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          "biggest_boost": {
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          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
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            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0437,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "CLE",
        "games": 150,
        "wins": 76,
        "losses": 74,
        "win_pct": 0.5067,
        "runs_scored": 615.0,
        "runs_allowed": 622.0,
        "run_differential": -7.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.0467,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1467,
        "offense_index": 0.9115,
        "defense_index": 1.0848,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
          "run_differential": 4.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.035
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "CHW",
        "games": 149,
        "wins": 76,
        "losses": 73,
        "win_pct": 0.5101,
        "runs_scored": 695.0,
        "runs_allowed": 661.0,
        "run_differential": 34.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.2282,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.6644,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4362,
        "offense_index": 1.0369,
        "defense_index": 1.014,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4,
          "run_differential": -9.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0335
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0685,
        "offense_edge": -0.0885,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0369,
        "defense_strength": 0.0848,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.014,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.3
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0038,
        "run_prevention": 0.994,
        "strikeout": 0.9991
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "668909",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "668909",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 652.0,
            "k_percent": 33.5,
            "bb_percent": 7.8,
            "woba": 0.293,
            "xwoba": 0.301,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 35.6,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 11.6,
            "hard_hit_percent": 47.4,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.1162,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 95.0574,
            "whiff_percent": 32.5,
            "swing_percent": 49.0
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 130.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6536,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9166,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.1071,
            "command_and_miss": 1.1843,
            "regression_edge": -0.2286,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.3143,
            "barrel_edge": -1.0,
            "hard_hit_edge": -1.3571,
            "whiff_edge": 1.0714,
            "bb_edge": 0.35,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0628
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "668909",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 89,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 89,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.96950013612465,
              "release_spin_rate": 2287.4904922044934,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 89,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.96950013612465,
                "release_spin_rate": 2287.4904922044934,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.9695,
              "release_spin_rate": 2287.4905,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0628,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.4483,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.2301,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9804,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.1086,
          "walk_factor": 0.972,
          "homer_factor": 1.1249,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.008,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "668909",
            "espn_id": 4345076,
            "player_name": "Gavin Williams",
            "team": "CLE",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 51,
            "espn_total_ranked": 861,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 51,
              "gp_value": 29.0,
              "gp_rank": "244",
              "gs_value": 29.0,
              "gs_rank": "14",
              "qs_value": 11.0,
              "qs_rank": "47",
              "era_value": 3.781,
              "era_rank": 27.0,
              "w_value": 13.0,
              "w_rank": "12",
              "l_value": 7.0,
              "l_rank": "86",
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": "251",
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": "354",
              "ip_value": 169.0,
              "ip_rank": "12",
              "h_value": 132.0,
              "h_rank": "58",
              "er_value": 71.0,
              "er_rank": "27",
              "hr_value": 27.0,
              "hr_rank": "7",
              "bb_value": 53.0,
              "bb_rank": "32",
              "k_value": 228.0,
              "k_rank": "2",
              "k_per_9_value": 12.142012,
              "k_per_9_rank": 4.0,
              "whip_value": 1.0946,
              "whip_rank": 15.0,
              "war_value": 2.6,
              "war_rank": 28.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9804,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9804,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.972,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.1249,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 8.0,
            "factor": 1.1086,
            "adjusted": 9
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 4,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 101,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260914_CHW@CLE.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260914

20260914_DET@TOR

away

Troy Melton

True

6.0

2.2

-10

-1

7/5

2/4

6/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.4166666666666665,
      "WHIP": 1.0462962962962963,
      "IP": 108.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 18,
      "role_avg_IP": 6.0,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.6,
      "last_start_IP": 5.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.146,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9876,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9834,
      "walk_factor": 0.954,
      "homer_factor": 0.9747,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 20.0,
      "bb_percent": 6.9,
      "woba": 0.284,
      "xwoba": 0.297,
      "barrel_percent": 6.4,
      "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
      "whiff_percent": 24.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 33,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 6.0,
      "season_IP": 108.0,
      "season_ERA": 2.417,
      "season_WHIP": 1.046,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 18.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7826,
        "prior_weight": 0.2174
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "675512",
      "report_date": "20260914",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 18,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 28.0,
            "ER": 16.0,
            "R": 20.0,
            "H": 35.0,
            "BB": 6.0,
            "SO": 18.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 127.0,
            "Pitches": 452.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 3.2,
            "R": 4.0,
            "H": 7.0,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 3.6,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 25.4,
            "Pitches": 90.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.1429,
            "WHIP": 1.4643,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.57143,
            "H_per_IP": 1.25,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.21429,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.64286,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.17857
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 58.2,
            "ER": 19.0,
            "R": 24.0,
            "H": 54.0,
            "BB": 19.0,
            "SO": 46.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 245.0,
            "Pitches": 917.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.9,
            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 5.4,
            "BB": 1.9,
            "SO": 4.6,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 24.5,
            "Pitches": 91.7
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.9148,
            "WHIP": 1.2443,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.32386,
            "H_per_IP": 0.92045,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.32386,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.78409,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10227
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 18,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 108.0,
            "ER": 29.0,
            "R": 35.0,
            "H": 83.0,
            "BB": 30.0,
            "SO": 87.0,
            "HR": 13.0,
            "BF": 434.0,
            "Pitches": 1614.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.6111,
            "R": 1.9444,
            "H": 4.6111,
            "BB": 1.6667,
            "SO": 4.8333,
            "HR": 0.7222,
            "BF": 24.1111,
            "Pitches": 89.6667
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.4167,
            "WHIP": 1.0463,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.26852,
            "H_per_IP": 0.76852,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.27778,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.80556,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12037
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.6,
        "predicted_H": 6.027,
        "predicted_BB": 1.698,
        "predicted_SO": 4.538,
        "predicted_HR": 0.834,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.9784,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3133
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4419,
      "form_weight": 0.5581,
      "form_reliability": 0.7826,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 18.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7826,
        "prior_weight": 0.2174
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 6.0,
          "final": 6.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.6,
          "final": 3.2186,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 6.027,
          "final": 6.4569,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.698,
          "final": 1.8314,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 4.538,
          "final": 5.184,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.834,
          "final": 0.9073,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.9784,
          "final": 3.9784,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3133,
          "final": 1.3133,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 58.2,
        "ER": 19,
        "H": 54,
        "BB": 19,
        "SO": 46,
        "HR": 6,
        "ERA": 2.9147727272727275,
        "WHIP": 1.2443181818181819,
        "K9": 7.0568181818181825,
        "HR9": 0.9204545454545455,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 4,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-07T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8258735361882888,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 7.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 6.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 18.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7826,
          "prior_weight": 0.2174
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 7,
          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 6,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "675512",
      "player_name": "Troy Melton",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "DET",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.25,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 1,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.25,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            },
            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.25,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          {
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          },
          {
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
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            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "DET",
        "games": 149,
        "wins": 70,
        "losses": 79,
        "win_pct": 0.4698,
        "runs_scored": 666.0,
        "runs_allowed": 596.0,
        "run_differential": 70.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.4698,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4698,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0,
        "offense_index": 0.9937,
        "defense_index": 1.1246,
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        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.3,
          "run_differential": 23.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0668
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "TOR",
        "games": 150,
        "wins": 75,
        "losses": 75,
        "win_pct": 0.5,
        "runs_scored": 608.0,
        "runs_allowed": 639.0,
        "run_differential": -31.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2067,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0533,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.26,
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        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.5,
          "run_differential": 13.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0097
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0571,
        "offense_edge": -0.0063,
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        "defense_strength": 0.1246,
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        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.01,
        "run_prevention": 0.9689,
        "strikeout": 1.0096
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "675512",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "675512",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 406.0,
            "k_percent": 20.0,
            "bb_percent": 6.9,
            "woba": 0.284,
            "xwoba": 0.297,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 30.9,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.4,
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            "avg_best_speed": 78.6562,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.7731,
            "whiff_percent": 24.1,
            "swing_percent": 50.4
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 130.0,
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            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6536,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9166,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
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          },
          "components": {
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            "regression_edge": -0.3714,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.4286,
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            "hard_hit_edge": 0.0,
            "whiff_edge": -0.1286,
            "bb_edge": 0.575,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0965
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "675512",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 90,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 90,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 91.57165284880485,
              "release_spin_rate": 2200.081003185649,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 90,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 91.57165284880485,
                "release_spin_rate": 2200.081003185649,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 91.5717,
              "release_spin_rate": 2200.081,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0965,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.6891,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.146,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9876,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9834,
          "walk_factor": 0.954,
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          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "675512",
            "espn_id": 5294127,
            "player_name": "Troy Melton",
            "team": "DET",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 33,
            "espn_total_ranked": 861,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 33,
              "gp_value": 18.0,
              "gp_rank": "418",
              "gs_value": 18.0,
              "gs_rank": "114",
              "qs_value": 9.0,
              "qs_rank": "66",
              "era_value": 2.4166,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 8.0,
              "w_rank": "67",
              "l_value": 4.0,
              "l_rank": "190",
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": "251",
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": "354",
              "ip_value": 108.0,
              "ip_rank": "116",
              "h_value": 83.0,
              "h_rank": "145",
              "er_value": 29.0,
              "er_rank": "199",
              "hr_value": 13.0,
              "hr_rank": "127",
              "bb_value": 30.0,
              "bb_rank": "176",
              "k_value": 87.0,
              "k_rank": "140",
              "k_per_9_value": 7.25,
              "k_per_9_rank": 32.0,
              "whip_value": 1.0462,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 3.1,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9876,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 0.9876,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.954,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9747,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9834,
            "adjusted": 4
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 7,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 28,
      "Pitches": 117,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least three innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -10 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: True; actual quality start: False."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260914_DET@TOR.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260914

20260914_DET@TOR

home

José Soriano

True

5.2

6.1

-1

4/5

4/1

7/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
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      "IP": 163.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 29,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.621,
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      "last_start_IP": 7.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
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      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0028,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0257,
      "walk_factor": 1.024,
      "homer_factor": 1.0163,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 22.6,
      "bb_percent": 10.4,
      "woba": 0.297,
      "xwoba": 0.324,
      "barrel_percent": 7.6,
      "hard_hit_percent": 37.4,
      "whiff_percent": 28.9
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 30,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
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        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
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      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "667755",
      "report_date": "20260914",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 29,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
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          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
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            "ER": 16.0,
            "R": 16.0,
            "H": 33.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 20.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
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          },
          "per_game": {
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            "H": 6.6,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 4.0,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 25.6,
            "Pitches": 94.4
          },
          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.4318,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.54545,
            "H_per_IP": 1.125,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.30682,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.68182,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10227
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 57.0,
            "ER": 23.0,
            "R": 25.0,
            "H": 53.0,
            "BB": 20.0,
            "SO": 39.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 235.0,
            "Pitches": 913.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.3,
            "R": 2.5,
            "H": 5.3,
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            "SO": 3.9,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 23.5,
            "Pitches": 91.3
          },
          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.2807,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.40351,
            "H_per_IP": 0.92982,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.35088,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.68421,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07018
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 29,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 163.0,
            "ER": 63.0,
            "R": 68.0,
            "H": 138.0,
            "BB": 71.0,
            "SO": 154.0,
            "HR": 16.0,
            "BF": 681.0,
            "Pitches": 2698.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.1724,
            "R": 2.3448,
            "H": 4.7586,
            "BB": 2.4483,
            "SO": 5.3103,
            "HR": 0.5517,
            "BF": 23.4828,
            "Pitches": 93.0345
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.4785,
            "WHIP": 1.2822,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.3865,
            "H_per_IP": 0.84663,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.43558,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.94479,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09816
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.725,
        "predicted_H": 5.778,
        "predicted_BB": 2.037,
        "predicted_SO": 4.434,
        "predicted_HR": 0.572,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.2319,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3488
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
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      "form_reliability": 0.8529,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_size": 29.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8529,
        "prior_weight": 0.1471
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.725,
          "final": 3.2505,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 5.778,
          "final": 5.0452,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.037,
          "final": 2.846,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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          "form": 4.434,
          "final": 4.2551,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.572,
          "final": 0.7484,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.2319,
          "final": 4.2319,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3488,
          "final": 1.3488,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 57.0,
        "ER": 23,
        "H": 53,
        "BB": 20,
        "SO": 39,
        "HR": 4,
        "ERA": 3.6315789473684212,
        "WHIP": 1.280701754385965,
        "K9": 6.157894736842105,
        "HR9": 0.631578947368421,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 4,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-08T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9074238252632489,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 4.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 29.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8529,
          "prior_weight": 0.1471
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "667755",
      "player_name": "Jos\u00e9 Soriano",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "TOR",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_R": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 3.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.75,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 1,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 3.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.75,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 3.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.75,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 2,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 1,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 3.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.75,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "TOR",
        "games": 150,
        "wins": 75,
        "losses": 75,
        "win_pct": 0.5,
        "runs_scored": 608.0,
        "runs_allowed": 639.0,
        "run_differential": -31.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2067,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0533,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.26,
        "offense_index": 0.9011,
        "defense_index": 1.0559,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.5,
          "run_differential": 13.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0097
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "DET",
        "games": 149,
        "wins": 70,
        "losses": 79,
        "win_pct": 0.4698,
        "runs_scored": 666.0,
        "runs_allowed": 596.0,
        "run_differential": 70.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.4698,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4698,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0,
        "offense_index": 0.9937,
        "defense_index": 1.1246,
        "current_streak": "W4",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.3,
          "run_differential": 23.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0668
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0571,
        "offense_edge": -0.0989,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0063,
        "defense_strength": 0.0559,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1246,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9996,
        "run_prevention": 0.9963,
        "strikeout": 0.9988
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "667755",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "667755",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 648.0,
            "k_percent": 22.6,
            "bb_percent": 10.4,
            "woba": 0.297,
            "xwoba": 0.324,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 30.7,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.6,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.4,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.4538,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.0281,
            "whiff_percent": 28.9,
            "swing_percent": 46.8
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 130.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6536,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9166,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.0247,
            "command_and_miss": 0.1736,
            "regression_edge": -0.7714,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.3429,
            "barrel_edge": -0.1111,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.0714,
            "whiff_edge": 0.5571,
            "bb_edge": -0.3,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.1541
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "667755",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 94,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 94,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 92.59983471757974,
              "release_spin_rate": 2057.6066009587034,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 94,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 92.59983471757974,
                "release_spin_rate": 2057.6066009587034,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 92.5998,
              "release_spin_rate": 2057.6066,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.1541,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 1.1004,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.0335,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0028,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0257,
          "walk_factor": 1.024,
          "homer_factor": 1.0163,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.027,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "667755",
            "espn_id": 40973,
            "player_name": "Jose Soriano",
            "team": "TOR",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 30,
            "espn_total_ranked": 861,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 30,
              "gp_value": 29.0,
              "gp_rank": "244",
              "gs_value": 29.0,
              "gs_rank": "14",
              "qs_value": 11.0,
              "qs_rank": "47",
              "era_value": 3.4785,
              "era_rank": 19.0,
              "w_value": 12.0,
              "w_rank": "17",
              "l_value": 7.0,
              "l_rank": "86",
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": "251",
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": "354",
              "ip_value": 163.0,
              "ip_rank": "24",
              "h_value": 138.0,
              "h_rank": "43",
              "er_value": 63.0,
              "er_rank": "57",
              "hr_value": 16.0,
              "hr_rank": "87",
              "bb_value": 71.0,
              "bb_rank": "5",
              "k_value": 154.0,
              "k_rank": "30",
              "k_per_9_value": 8.503068,
              "k_per_9_rank": 33.0,
              "whip_value": 1.2822,
              "whip_rank": 37.0,
              "war_value": 3.16,
              "war_rank": 22.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0028,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0028,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.024,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0163,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0257,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 4,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 25,
      "Pitches": 111,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -3."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260914_DET@TOR.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260914

20260914_LAD@CIN

away

Tarik Skubal

True

6.2

7.0

-3

5/3

1/1

7/9

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.8353221957040575,
      "WHIP": 0.973747016706444,
      "IP": 139.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 23,
      "role_avg_IP": 6.072,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.4,
      "last_start_IP": 7.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.7147,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9392,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0811,
      "walk_factor": 0.904,
      "homer_factor": 0.9531,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 29.9,
      "bb_percent": 4.4,
      "woba": 0.267,
      "xwoba": 0.27,
      "barrel_percent": 7.0,
      "hard_hit_percent": 36.3,
      "whiff_percent": 31.3
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 15,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 23.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8214,
        "prior_weight": 0.1786
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "669373",
      "report_date": "20260914",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 23,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 32.0,
            "ER": 9.0,
            "R": 10.0,
            "H": 30.0,
            "BB": 6.0,
            "SO": 36.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 129.0,
            "Pitches": 494.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.1,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 6.0,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 7.2,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 25.8,
            "Pitches": 98.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.5312,
            "WHIP": 1.125,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.28125,
            "H_per_IP": 0.9375,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.1875,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.125,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.03125
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 64.0,
            "ER": 18.0,
            "R": 19.0,
            "H": 51.0,
            "BB": 13.0,
            "SO": 75.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 251.0,
            "Pitches": 944.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.1,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 1.9,
            "H": 5.1,
            "BB": 1.3,
            "SO": 7.5,
            "HR": 0.3,
            "BF": 25.1,
            "Pitches": 94.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.5312,
            "WHIP": 1.0,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.28125,
            "H_per_IP": 0.79688,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.20312,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.17188,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.04688
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 23,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 139.2,
            "ER": 44.0,
            "R": 48.0,
            "H": 112.0,
            "BB": 24.0,
            "SO": 164.0,
            "HR": 13.0,
            "BF": 548.0,
            "Pitches": 2105.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.913,
            "R": 2.087,
            "H": 4.8696,
            "BB": 1.0435,
            "SO": 7.1304,
            "HR": 0.5652,
            "BF": 23.8261,
            "Pitches": 91.5217
          },
          "rates": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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        "predicted_WHIP": {
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    "recent_form_analysis": {
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      "pitching": {
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        "dominant_form": false,
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      "fielding": {
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-08T00:00:00"
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
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    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
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        {
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          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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        {
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      "total_change": {
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        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
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    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
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      "opponent": {
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        "runs_scored": 624.0,
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          "avg_runs_allowed": 8.3,
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      "edges": {
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      "player_factors": {
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "669373",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "669373",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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          "components": {
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "669373",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 99,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
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              "pitches": 99,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
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              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
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              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
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              "xwoba": 0.0,
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            "pitch_mix": [
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                "pitches": 99,
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                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 92.5621,
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            "components": {
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
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          "quality_score": 0.7147,
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            "player_name": "Tarik Skubal",
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            "espn_total_ranked": 861,
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              "bb_rank": "234",
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              "k_rank": "24",
              "k_per_9_value": 10.568019,
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              "whip_value": 0.9737,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 3.89,
              "war_rank": null
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            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
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          "predicted_H": {
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          "predicted_HR": {
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          "predicted_SO": {
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    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
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      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 26,
      "Pitches": 115,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "MISSED_SHUTDOWN",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Model missed a shutdown outing",
      "detail": "The pitcher allowed zero earned runs after a projection of 3 ER."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260914_LAD@CIN.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260914

20260914_LAD@CIN

home

Nick Lodolo

True

4.1

7.0

-3

9/3

3/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 5.118959107806691,
      "WHIP": 1.5278810408921932,
      "IP": 89.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 18,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.981,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.6,
      "last_start_IP": 4.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.8309,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0706,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9646,
      "walk_factor": 1.004,
      "homer_factor": 1.1252,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 18.5,
      "bb_percent": 9.4,
      "woba": 0.38,
      "xwoba": 0.38,
      "barrel_percent": 9.9,
      "hard_hit_percent": 40.9,
      "whiff_percent": 22.3
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 197,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 18.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7826,
        "prior_weight": 0.2174
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "666157",
      "report_date": "20260914",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 18,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 23.0,
            "ER": 15.0,
            "R": 15.0,
            "H": 29.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 20.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 109.0,
            "Pitches": 456.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 5.8,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 4.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 21.8,
            "Pitches": 91.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.8696,
            "WHIP": 1.7391,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.65217,
            "H_per_IP": 1.26087,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.47826,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.86957,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.21739
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 47.0,
            "ER": 22.0,
            "R": 22.0,
            "H": 48.0,
            "BB": 21.0,
            "SO": 43.0,
            "HR": 9.0,
            "BF": 210.0,
            "Pitches": 872.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.2,
            "R": 2.2,
            "H": 4.8,
            "BB": 2.1,
            "SO": 4.3,
            "HR": 0.9,
            "BF": 21.0,
            "Pitches": 87.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.2128,
            "WHIP": 1.4681,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.46809,
            "H_per_IP": 1.02128,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.44681,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.91489,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.19149
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 18,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 89.2,
            "ER": 51.0,
            "R": 51.0,
            "H": 99.0,
            "BB": 38.0,
            "SO": 75.0,
            "HR": 17.0,
            "BF": 406.0,
            "Pitches": 1613.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.8333,
            "R": 2.8333,
            "H": 5.5,
            "BB": 2.1111,
            "SO": 4.1667,
            "HR": 0.9444,
            "BF": 22.5556,
            "Pitches": 89.6111
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.119,
            "WHIP": 1.5279,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.56877,
            "H_per_IP": 1.10409,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.42379,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.83643,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.18959
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.628,
        "predicted_H": 5.231,
        "predicted_BB": 2.067,
        "predicted_SO": 4.209,
        "predicted_HR": 0.9,
        "predicted_ERA": 5.0129,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.5467
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4419,
      "form_weight": 0.5581,
      "form_reliability": 0.7826,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 18.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7826,
        "prior_weight": 0.2174
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.2,
          "form": 4.2,
          "final": 4.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 8.0,
          "form": 2.628,
          "final": 5.0016,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 9.0,
          "form": 5.231,
          "final": 6.8963,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.067,
          "final": 2.4792,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 4.209,
          "final": 3.6748,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.9,
          "final": 0.9442,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 5.0129,
          "final": 5.0129,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.5467,
          "final": 1.5467,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 47.0,
        "ER": 22,
        "H": 48,
        "BB": 21,
        "SO": 43,
        "HR": 9,
        "ERA": 4.212765957446808,
        "WHIP": 1.4680851063829787,
        "K9": 8.23404255319149,
        "HR9": 1.7234042553191489,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 2,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-08T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9774919476969929,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 8.0,
          "predicted_H": 9.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 3.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 18.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7826,
          "prior_weight": 0.2174
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.1,
          "predicted_ER": 8,
          "predicted_H": 9,
          "predicted_BB": 3,
          "predicted_SO": 3,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "666157",
      "player_name": "Nick Lodolo",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CIN",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 8.0,
            "predicted_H": 9.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 8.0,
            "predicted_H": 9.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.1,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 8.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 9.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.6667,
              "after": 4.1,
              "delta": -0.5667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1214,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_ER": 8.0,
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            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.1,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            {
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
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            {
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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          ],
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "changed_metrics": [
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          },
          {
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        ],
        "summary": {
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          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "CIN",
        "games": 149,
        "wins": 70,
        "losses": 79,
        "win_pct": 0.4698,
        "runs_scored": 624.0,
        "runs_allowed": 769.0,
        "run_differential": -145.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.9732,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1879,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.1611,
        "offense_index": 0.931,
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        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
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          "avg_runs_scored": 5.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 8.3,
          "run_differential": -33.0
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        "available": true,
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      "opponent": {
        "team": "LAD",
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        "runs_scored": 741.0,
        "runs_allowed": 571.0,
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        "run_differential_per_game": 1.1409,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.9732,
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        "current_streak": "L2",
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          "run_differential": 24.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.3329
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      "edges": {
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        "offense_edge": -0.069,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.1056,
        "defense_strength": -0.1284,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1738,
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      "player_factors": {
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        "run_prevention": 1.0554,
        "strikeout": 0.9762
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "666157",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "666157",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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            "woba": 0.38,
            "xwoba": 0.38,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 38.4,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 9.9,
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          "league_medians": {
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            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
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            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9166,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
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          "components": {
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            "command_and_miss": -0.37,
            "regression_edge": 0.0,
            "xwoba_edge": -1.9429,
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            "whiff_edge": -0.3857,
            "bb_edge": -0.05,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0064
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "666157",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 85,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 85,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.73486726760473,
              "release_spin_rate": 2271.3468770408163,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 85,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.73486726760473,
                "release_spin_rate": 2271.3468770408163,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.7349,
              "release_spin_rate": 2271.3469,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0064,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.0456,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.8309,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0706,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9646,
          "walk_factor": 1.004,
          "homer_factor": 1.1252,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.0,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "666157",
            "espn_id": 42433,
            "player_name": "Nick Lodolo",
            "team": "CIN",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 197,
            "espn_total_ranked": 861,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 197,
              "gp_value": 18.0,
              "gp_rank": "418",
              "gs_value": 18.0,
              "gs_rank": "114",
              "qs_value": 4.0,
              "qs_rank": "125",
              "era_value": 5.1189,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 3.0,
              "w_rank": "248",
              "l_value": 4.0,
              "l_rank": "190",
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": "251",
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": "354",
              "ip_value": 89.2,
              "ip_rank": "146",
              "h_value": 99.0,
              "h_rank": "121",
              "er_value": 51.0,
              "er_rank": "104",
              "hr_value": 17.0,
              "hr_rank": "74",
              "bb_value": 38.0,
              "bb_rank": "104",
              "k_value": 75.0,
              "k_rank": "166",
              "k_per_9_value": 7.527881,
              "k_per_9_rank": 30.0,
              "whip_value": 1.5278,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.88,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0706,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0706,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.004,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.1252,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9646,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.1,
      "predicted_H": 9,
      "predicted_R": 8,
      "predicted_ER": 8,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 3,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 25,
      "Pitches": 94,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by +8 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 6",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was -6."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260914_LAD@CIN.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260914

20260914_MIA@ARI

away

Sandy Alcantara

True

6.0

5.0

-3

7/7

2/2

5/6

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.78,
      "WHIP": 1.215,
      "IP": 200.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 31,
      "role_avg_IP": 6.452,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.867,
      "last_start_IP": 4.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.03,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9975,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9497,
      "walk_factor": 0.948,
      "homer_factor": 0.9548,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 17.2,
      "bb_percent": 6.6,
      "woba": 0.303,
      "xwoba": 0.305,
      "barrel_percent": 5.6,
      "hard_hit_percent": 35.7,
      "whiff_percent": 21.0
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 36,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 31.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8611,
        "prior_weight": 0.1389
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "645261",
      "report_date": "20260914",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 31,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 29.1,
            "ER": 19.0,
            "R": 19.0,
            "H": 35.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 13.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 131.0,
            "Pitches": 490.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 3.8,
            "R": 3.8,
            "H": 7.0,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 2.6,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 26.2,
            "Pitches": 98.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.8295,
            "WHIP": 1.5,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.64773,
            "H_per_IP": 1.19318,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.30682,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.44318,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.17045
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 63.1,
            "ER": 25.0,
            "R": 25.0,
            "H": 58.0,
            "BB": 18.0,
            "SO": 36.0,
            "HR": 8.0,
            "BF": 265.0,
            "Pitches": 1008.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.1,
            "ER": 2.5,
            "R": 2.5,
            "H": 5.8,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 3.6,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 26.5,
            "Pitches": 100.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.5526,
            "WHIP": 1.2,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.39474,
            "H_per_IP": 0.91579,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.28421,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.56842,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12632
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 31,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 200.0,
            "ER": 84.0,
            "R": 89.0,
            "H": 188.0,
            "BB": 55.0,
            "SO": 143.0,
            "HR": 22.0,
            "BF": 833.0,
            "Pitches": 3060.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.1,
            "ER": 2.7097,
            "R": 2.871,
            "H": 6.0645,
            "BB": 1.7742,
            "SO": 4.6129,
            "HR": 0.7097,
            "BF": 26.871,
            "Pitches": 98.7097
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.78,
            "WHIP": 1.215,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.42,
            "H_per_IP": 0.94,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.275,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.715,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.0,
        "predicted_ER": 3.157,
        "predicted_H": 6.378,
        "predicted_BB": 1.87,
        "predicted_SO": 3.674,
        "predicted_HR": 0.884,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.6135,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3393
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4087,
      "form_weight": 0.5913,
      "form_reliability": 0.8611,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 31.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8611,
        "prior_weight": 0.1389
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 6.0,
          "final": 6.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 3.157,
          "final": 3.5015,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 6.378,
          "final": 6.6322,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.87,
          "final": 1.9231,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 3.674,
          "final": 4.2159,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.884,
          "final": 0.9314,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.6135,
          "final": 4.6135,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3393,
          "final": 1.3393,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 63.1,
        "ER": 25,
        "H": 58,
        "BB": 18,
        "SO": 36,
        "HR": 8,
        "ERA": 3.5526315789473686,
        "WHIP": 1.2000000000000002,
        "K9": 5.115789473684211,
        "HR9": 1.1368421052631579,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 6,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-08T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8965247024562314,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 7.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 31.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8611,
          "prior_weight": 0.1389
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "645261",
      "player_name": "Sandy Alcantara",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "MIA",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_R": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 7.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 0,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
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          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "MIA",
        "games": 150,
        "wins": 74,
        "losses": 76,
        "win_pct": 0.4933,
        "runs_scored": 666.0,
        "runs_allowed": 660.0,
        "run_differential": 6.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.04,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.44,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4,
        "offense_index": 0.9868,
        "defense_index": 1.0226,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.6,
          "run_differential": -12.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0708
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "ARI",
        "games": 150,
        "wins": 79,
        "losses": 71,
        "win_pct": 0.5267,
        "runs_scored": 665.0,
        "runs_allowed": 663.0,
        "run_differential": 2.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0133,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4333,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.42,
        "offense_index": 0.9853,
        "defense_index": 1.018,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.4,
          "run_differential": 4.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0593
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.1301,
        "offense_edge": -0.0132,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0147,
        "defense_strength": 0.0226,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.018,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.3
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9961,
        "run_prevention": 1.0019,
        "strikeout": 0.9973
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "645261",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "645261",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 803.0,
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            "woba": 0.303,
            "xwoba": 0.305,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 32.9,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 5.6,
            "hard_hit_percent": 35.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.7923,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.6689,
            "whiff_percent": 21.0,
            "swing_percent": 50.7
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 130.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6536,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9166,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.2195,
            "command_and_miss": -0.3786,
            "regression_edge": -0.0571,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.2,
            "barrel_edge": 0.3333,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.3143,
            "whiff_edge": -0.5714,
            "bb_edge": 0.65,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.1398
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "645261",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 98,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 98,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 92.3444124808556,
              "release_spin_rate": 2240.1574870493137,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 98,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 92.3444124808556,
                "release_spin_rate": 2240.1574870493137,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 92.3444,
              "release_spin_rate": 2240.1575,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.1398,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.9982,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.03,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9975,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9497,
          "walk_factor": 0.948,
          "homer_factor": 0.9548,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.002,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "645261",
            "espn_id": 35241,
            "player_name": "Sandy Alcantara",
            "team": "MIA",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 36,
            "espn_total_ranked": 861,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 36,
              "gp_value": 31.0,
              "gp_rank": "212",
              "gs_value": 31.0,
              "gs_rank": "1",
              "qs_value": 21.0,
              "qs_rank": "1",
              "era_value": 3.78,
              "era_rank": 26.0,
              "w_value": 13.0,
              "w_rank": "12",
              "l_value": 10.0,
              "l_rank": "21",
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": "251",
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": "354",
              "ip_value": 200.0,
              "ip_rank": "1",
              "h_value": 188.0,
              "h_rank": "1",
              "er_value": 84.0,
              "er_rank": "8",
              "hr_value": 22.0,
              "hr_rank": "28",
              "bb_value": 55.0,
              "bb_rank": "28",
              "k_value": 143.0,
              "k_rank": "40",
              "k_per_9_value": 6.4350004,
              "k_per_9_rank": 1080.0,
              "whip_value": 1.215,
              "whip_rank": 32.0,
              "war_value": 3.03,
              "war_rank": 23.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9975,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 0.9975,
            "adjusted": 7
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.948,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9548,
            "adjusted": 1
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9497,
            "adjusted": 3
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 7,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 27,
      "Pitches": 111,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260914_MIA@ARI.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260914

20260914_MIA@ARI

home

Corbin Burnes

True

3.0

4.2

5/5

0/0

9/4

Last 10 before this game (1 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
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      "WHIP": 1.3333333333333333,
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      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 1,
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      "recent_avg_IP": 3.0,
      "last_start_IP": 3.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0331,
      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9972,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0031,
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      "k_percent": 22.6,
      "bb_percent": 9.0,
      "woba": 0.31,
      "xwoba": 0.308,
      "barrel_percent": 7.0,
      "hard_hit_percent": 37.5,
      "whiff_percent": 25.6
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 351,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 1.0
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      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 1.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
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      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "669203",
      "report_date": "20260914",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 1,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.0,
      "windows": {
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          "totals": {
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            "R": 0.0,
            "H": 2.0,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 2.0,
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            "BF": 13.0,
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          "per_game": {
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            "H": 2.0,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 2.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
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          "rates": {
            "ERA": 0.0,
            "WHIP": 1.3333,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.0,
            "H_per_IP": 0.66667,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.66667,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.66667,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 1,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 3.0,
            "ER": 0.0,
            "R": 0.0,
            "H": 2.0,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 2.0,
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          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.0,
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            "R": 0.0,
            "H": 2.0,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 2.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 13.0,
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          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 0.0,
            "WHIP": 1.3333,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.0,
            "H_per_IP": 0.66667,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.66667,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.66667,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
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        },
        "season": {
          "games": 1,
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            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 2.0,
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            "BF": 13.0,
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          },
          "per_game": {
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            "Pitches": 57.0
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          "rates": {
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            "ER_per_IP": 0.0,
            "H_per_IP": 0.66667,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.66667,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.66667,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
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        "predicted_ER": 1.617,
        "predicted_H": 3.541,
        "predicted_BB": 1.616,
        "predicted_SO": 3.425,
        "predicted_HR": 0.472,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.797,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3453
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
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      "form_reliability": 0.1667,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
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      "applied_metrics": {
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          "final": 4.0,
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
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          "form": 1.617,
          "final": 2.588,
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
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          "final": 4.5653,
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        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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          "final": 0.4815,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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          "final": 7.339,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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          "form": 0.472,
          "final": 1.5448,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.797,
          "final": 3.797,
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3453,
          "final": 1.3453,
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
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        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "insufficient_data"
      },
      "pitching": {
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        "ER": 0,
        "H": 2,
        "BB": 2,
        "SO": 2,
        "HR": 0,
        "ERA": 0.0,
        "WHIP": 1.3333333333333333,
        "K9": 6.0,
        "HR9": 0.0,
        "games_pitched": 1,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 1,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 1,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-08T00:00:00"
    },
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    "stat_evolution": [
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        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 9.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 1.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.1667,
          "prior_weight": 0.8333
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      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 3.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 5,
          "predicted_BB": 0,
          "predicted_SO": 9,
          "predicted_HR": 2
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "669203",
      "player_name": "Corbin Burnes",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "ARI",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 9.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 9.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.25,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 9.0,
              "after": 9.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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              "delta": -1.0,
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              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
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            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 3.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 9.0,
              "after": 9.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 5.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.25,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 9.0,
            "after": 9.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
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          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.25,
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            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "ARI",
        "games": 150,
        "wins": 79,
        "losses": 71,
        "win_pct": 0.5267,
        "runs_scored": 665.0,
        "runs_allowed": 663.0,
        "run_differential": 2.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0133,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4333,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.42,
        "offense_index": 0.9853,
        "defense_index": 1.018,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.4,
          "run_differential": 4.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0593
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "MIA",
        "games": 150,
        "wins": 74,
        "losses": 76,
        "win_pct": 0.4933,
        "runs_scored": 666.0,
        "runs_allowed": 660.0,
        "run_differential": 6.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.04,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.44,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4,
        "offense_index": 0.9868,
        "defense_index": 1.0226,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.6,
          "run_differential": -12.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0708
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.1301,
        "offense_edge": -0.0147,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0132,
        "defense_strength": 0.018,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0226,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.3
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0063,
        "run_prevention": 0.9896,
        "strikeout": 1.005
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "669203",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "669203",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 0.0,
            "k_percent": 22.6,
            "bb_percent": 9.0,
            "woba": 0.31,
            "xwoba": 0.308,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.0,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.5,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5157,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8851,
            "whiff_percent": 25.6,
            "swing_percent": 47.7
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 130.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6536,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9166,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.0848,
            "command_and_miss": 0.0786,
            "regression_edge": 0.0571,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.1143,
            "barrel_edge": 0.0222,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.0571,
            "whiff_edge": 0.0857,
            "bb_edge": 0.05,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": false,
            "pitcher_id": "669203",
            "reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0331,
          "sample_weight": 0.45,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9972,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0031,
          "walk_factor": 0.9982,
          "homer_factor": 0.9966,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.002,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "669203",
            "espn_id": 39878,
            "player_name": "Corbin Burnes",
            "team": "ARI",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 351,
            "espn_total_ranked": 861,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 351,
              "gp_value": 1.0,
              "gp_rank": "789",
              "gs_value": 1.0,
              "gs_rank": "299",
              "qs_value": 0.0,
              "qs_rank": "210",
              "era_value": 0.0,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 0.0,
              "w_rank": "538",
              "l_value": 0.0,
              "l_rank": "577",
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": "251",
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": "354",
              "ip_value": 3.0,
              "ip_rank": "765",
              "h_value": 2.0,
              "h_rank": "803",
              "er_value": 0.0,
              "er_rank": "824",
              "hr_value": 0.0,
              "hr_rank": "746",
              "bb_value": 2.0,
              "bb_rank": "720",
              "k_value": 2.0,
              "k_rank": "741",
              "k_per_9_value": 6.0,
              "k_per_9_rank": 26.0,
              "whip_value": 1.3333,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.19,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9987,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9987,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9992,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9985,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0014,
            "adjusted": 2
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 3.0,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 9,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 14,
      "Pitches": 61,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 1 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260914_MIA@ARI.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260914

20260914_NYY@MIN

away

Will Warren

True

5.1

5.2

-3

2/5

2/2

4/6

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "ERA": 4.046838407494145,
      "WHIP": 1.3629976580796253,
      "IP": 142.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 29,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.16,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.2,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.2033,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0173,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9897,
      "walk_factor": 0.974,
      "homer_factor": 1.0614,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 22.9,
      "bb_percent": 7.9,
      "woba": 0.333,
      "xwoba": 0.325,
      "barrel_percent": 7.9,
      "hard_hit_percent": 44.2,
      "whiff_percent": 22.3
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 187,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 29.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8529,
        "prior_weight": 0.1471
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "701542",
      "report_date": "20260914",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 29,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 24.1,
            "ER": 6.0,
            "R": 7.0,
            "H": 20.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 24.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 100.0,
            "Pitches": 408.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 1.2,
            "R": 1.4,
            "H": 4.0,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 4.8,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 20.0,
            "Pitches": 81.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.2192,
            "WHIP": 1.1507,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.24658,
            "H_per_IP": 0.82192,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.32877,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.9863,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12329
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 44.0,
            "ER": 20.0,
            "R": 21.0,
            "H": 44.0,
            "BB": 16.0,
            "SO": 45.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 188.0,
            "Pitches": 752.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.1,
            "H": 4.4,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 4.5,
            "HR": 0.7,
            "BF": 18.8,
            "Pitches": 75.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.0909,
            "WHIP": 1.3636,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.45455,
            "H_per_IP": 1.0,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.36364,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.02273,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15909
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 29,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 142.1,
            "ER": 64.0,
            "R": 77.0,
            "H": 145.0,
            "BB": 49.0,
            "SO": 141.0,
            "HR": 21.0,
            "BF": 617.0,
            "Pitches": 2413.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.2069,
            "R": 2.6552,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 1.6897,
            "SO": 4.8621,
            "HR": 0.7241,
            "BF": 21.2759,
            "Pitches": 83.2069
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.0468,
            "WHIP": 1.363,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.44965,
            "H_per_IP": 1.01874,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.34426,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.99063,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.14754
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 1.85,
        "predicted_H": 4.516,
        "predicted_BB": 1.689,
        "predicted_SO": 4.806,
        "predicted_HR": 0.687,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.4335,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2794
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4121,
      "form_weight": 0.5879,
      "form_reliability": 0.8529,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_size": 29.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8529,
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      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.1,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.1,
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 1.85,
          "final": 2.324,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 4.516,
          "final": 3.479,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.689,
          "final": 1.8172,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 4.806,
          "final": 4.4738,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 0.687,
          "final": 1.2282,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.4335,
          "final": 3.4335,
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2794,
          "final": 1.2794,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 44.0,
        "ER": 20,
        "H": 44,
        "BB": 16,
        "SO": 45,
        "HR": 7,
        "ERA": 4.090909090909091,
        "WHIP": 1.3636363636363635,
        "K9": 9.204545454545455,
        "HR9": 1.4318181818181819,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-09T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9611718316428344,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 29.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8529,
          "prior_weight": 0.1471
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "701542",
      "player_name": "Will Warren",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "NYY",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.1,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0438,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0438,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0437,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0437,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "NYY",
        "games": 149,
        "wins": 86,
        "losses": 63,
        "win_pct": 0.5772,
        "runs_scored": 677.0,
        "runs_allowed": 552.0,
        "run_differential": 125.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.8389,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5436,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7047,
        "offense_index": 1.0101,
        "defense_index": 1.2142,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.4,
          "run_differential": 13.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.2382
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "MIN",
        "games": 149,
        "wins": 70,
        "losses": 79,
        "win_pct": 0.4698,
        "runs_scored": 683.0,
        "runs_allowed": 745.0,
        "run_differential": -62.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.4161,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5839,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.0,
        "offense_index": 1.019,
        "defense_index": 0.8997,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.0,
          "run_differential": -29.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1465
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.3847,
        "offense_edge": 0.0101,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.019,
        "defense_strength": 0.2142,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.1003,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.4
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0211,
        "run_prevention": 0.9624,
        "strikeout": 1.01
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "701542",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "701542",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 591.0,
            "k_percent": 22.9,
            "bb_percent": 7.9,
            "woba": 0.333,
            "xwoba": 0.325,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.0,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.9,
            "hard_hit_percent": 44.2,
            "avg_best_speed": 80.5331,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 95.0415,
            "whiff_percent": 22.3,
            "swing_percent": 44.3
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 130.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6536,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9166,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.4012,
            "command_and_miss": -0.0121,
            "regression_edge": 0.2286,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.3714,
            "barrel_edge": -0.1778,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.9,
            "whiff_edge": -0.3857,
            "bb_edge": 0.325,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0212
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "701542",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 78,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 78,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.22784550610565,
              "release_spin_rate": 2500.520729883811,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 78,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.22784550610565,
                "release_spin_rate": 2500.520729883811,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.2278,
              "release_spin_rate": 2500.5207,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0212,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.1516,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.2033,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0173,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9897,
          "walk_factor": 0.974,
          "homer_factor": 1.0614,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.008,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "701542",
            "espn_id": 5132011,
            "player_name": "Will Warren",
            "team": "NYY",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 187,
            "espn_total_ranked": 861,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 187,
              "gp_value": 29.0,
              "gp_rank": "244",
              "gs_value": 27.0,
              "gs_rank": "45",
              "qs_value": 8.0,
              "qs_rank": "77",
              "era_value": 4.0468,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 10.0,
              "w_rank": "30",
              "l_value": 6.0,
              "l_rank": "114",
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": "251",
              "hld_value": 1.0,
              "hld_rank": "272",
              "ip_value": 142.1,
              "ip_rank": "58",
              "h_value": 145.0,
              "h_rank": "29",
              "er_value": 64.0,
              "er_rank": "55",
              "hr_value": 21.0,
              "hr_rank": "32",
              "bb_value": 49.0,
              "bb_rank": "47",
              "k_value": 141.0,
              "k_rank": "44",
              "k_per_9_value": 8.915691,
              "k_per_9_rank": 20.0,
              "whip_value": 1.3629,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.94,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0173,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0173,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.974,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0614,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9897,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 93,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "MISSED_SHUTDOWN",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Model missed a shutdown outing",
      "detail": "The pitcher allowed zero earned runs after a projection of 3 ER."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260914_NYY@MIN.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260914

20260914_NYY@MIN

home

Dean Kremer

True

4.2

5.2

-2

6/2

1/1

5/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "WHIP": 1.2976744186046512,
      "IP": 71.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 14,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.119,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.733,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.1227,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0104,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.024,
      "walk_factor": 0.982,
      "homer_factor": 1.0376,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 23.0,
      "bb_percent": 8.3,
      "woba": 0.345,
      "xwoba": 0.329,
      "barrel_percent": 9.2,
      "hard_hit_percent": 35.4,
      "whiff_percent": 28.2
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 713,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 14.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7368,
        "prior_weight": 0.2632
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "665152",
      "report_date": "20260914",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 14,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 23.2,
            "ER": 17.0,
            "R": 18.0,
            "H": 26.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 22.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 106.0,
            "Pitches": 428.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 3.4,
            "R": 3.6,
            "H": 5.2,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 4.4,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 21.2,
            "Pitches": 85.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.4648,
            "WHIP": 1.5634,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.71831,
            "H_per_IP": 1.09859,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.46479,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.92958,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.16901
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 49.2,
            "ER": 35.0,
            "R": 36.0,
            "H": 50.0,
            "BB": 21.0,
            "SO": 45.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 214.0,
            "Pitches": 856.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 3.5,
            "R": 3.6,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 2.1,
            "SO": 4.5,
            "HR": 0.7,
            "BF": 21.4,
            "Pitches": 85.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.3423,
            "WHIP": 1.4295,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.7047,
            "H_per_IP": 1.00671,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.42282,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.90604,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.14094
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 14,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 71.2,
            "ER": 45.0,
            "R": 48.0,
            "H": 68.0,
            "BB": 25.0,
            "SO": 69.0,
            "HR": 16.0,
            "BF": 300.0,
            "Pitches": 1202.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 3.2143,
            "R": 3.4286,
            "H": 4.8571,
            "BB": 1.7857,
            "SO": 4.9286,
            "HR": 1.1429,
            "BF": 21.4286,
            "Pitches": 85.8571
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.6512,
            "WHIP": 1.2977,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.62791,
            "H_per_IP": 0.94884,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.34884,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.96279,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.22326
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 3.157,
        "predicted_H": 4.989,
        "predicted_BB": 2.017,
        "predicted_SO": 4.552,
        "predicted_HR": 0.803,
        "predicted_ERA": 5.8111,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.4329
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
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      "form_reliability": 0.7368,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_size": 14.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7368,
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      },
      "applied_metrics": {
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          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 3.157,
          "final": 3.0846,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 4.989,
          "final": 5.4553,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.017,
          "final": 1.548,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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          "form": 4.552,
          "final": 4.7586,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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          "form": 0.803,
          "final": 1.8163,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 5.8111,
          "final": 5.8111,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.4329,
          "final": 1.4329,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 49.2,
        "ER": 35,
        "H": 50,
        "BB": 21,
        "SO": 45,
        "HR": 7,
        "ERA": 6.342281879194632,
        "WHIP": 1.429530201342282,
        "K9": 8.154362416107382,
        "HR9": 1.2684563758389262,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 1,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-08T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.2160986162676055,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 6.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 3.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 14.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7368,
          "prior_weight": 0.2632
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.2,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 6,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 5,
          "predicted_HR": 3
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "665152",
      "player_name": "Dean Kremer",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "MIN",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 3.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 3.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.2,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": -0.8,
              "percent_delta": -0.16,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": -0.8,
              "percent_delta": -0.16,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 3.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.2,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.2,
              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 4.2,
            "delta": -0.8,
            "percent_delta": -0.16,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 4.2,
            "delta": -0.8,
            "percent_delta": -0.16,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "MIN",
        "games": 149,
        "wins": 70,
        "losses": 79,
        "win_pct": 0.4698,
        "runs_scored": 683.0,
        "runs_allowed": 745.0,
        "run_differential": -62.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.4161,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5839,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.0,
        "offense_index": 1.019,
        "defense_index": 0.8997,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.0,
          "run_differential": -29.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1465
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "NYY",
        "games": 149,
        "wins": 86,
        "losses": 63,
        "win_pct": 0.5772,
        "runs_scored": 677.0,
        "runs_allowed": 552.0,
        "run_differential": 125.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.8389,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5436,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7047,
        "offense_index": 1.0101,
        "defense_index": 1.2142,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.4,
          "run_differential": 13.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.2382
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.3847,
        "offense_edge": 0.019,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0101,
        "defense_strength": -0.1003,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.2142,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.4
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9812,
        "run_prevention": 1.0309,
        "strikeout": 0.9877
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "665152",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "665152",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 280.0,
            "k_percent": 23.0,
            "bb_percent": 8.3,
            "woba": 0.345,
            "xwoba": 0.329,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 38.8,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 9.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 35.4,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.3448,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.6189,
            "whiff_percent": 28.2,
            "swing_percent": 45.4
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 130.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6536,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9166,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.4011,
            "command_and_miss": 0.2693,
            "regression_edge": 0.4571,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.4857,
            "barrel_edge": -0.4667,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.3571,
            "whiff_edge": 0.4571,
            "bb_edge": 0.225,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.1727
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "665152",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 89,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 89,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 86.76486917157884,
              "release_spin_rate": 2100.0341139661887,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 89,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 86.76486917157884,
                "release_spin_rate": 2100.0341139661887,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 86.7649,
              "release_spin_rate": 2100.0341,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1727,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.2336,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.1227,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0104,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.024,
          "walk_factor": 0.982,
          "homer_factor": 1.0376,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.016,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "665152",
            "espn_id": 38295,
            "player_name": "Dean Kremer",
            "team": "MIN",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 713,
            "espn_total_ranked": 861,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 713,
              "gp_value": 14.0,
              "gp_rank": "476",
              "gs_value": 14.0,
              "gs_rank": "147",
              "qs_value": 3.0,
              "qs_rank": "141",
              "era_value": 5.6511,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 3.0,
              "w_rank": "248",
              "l_value": 5.0,
              "l_rank": "137",
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": "251",
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": "354",
              "ip_value": 71.2,
              "ip_rank": "184",
              "h_value": 68.0,
              "h_rank": "175",
              "er_value": 45.0,
              "er_rank": "133",
              "hr_value": 16.0,
              "hr_rank": "87",
              "bb_value": 25.0,
              "bb_rank": "221",
              "k_value": 69.0,
              "k_rank": "190",
              "k_per_9_value": 8.665116,
              "k_per_9_rank": 27.0,
              "whip_value": 1.2976,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": -0.3,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0104,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0104,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.982,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0376,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.024,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.2,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 3,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 93,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was -4."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was -2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260914_NYY@MIN.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260914

20260914_SD@COL

away

Casey Mize

True

5.0

-1

3/8

0/2

4/0

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.695530726256983,
      "WHIP": 1.106145251396648,
      "IP": 119.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 23,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.188,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.667,
      "last_start_IP": 5.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.1788,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9848,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.996,
      "walk_factor": 0.936,
      "homer_factor": 1.0119,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 22.0,
      "bb_percent": 6.0,
      "woba": 0.293,
      "xwoba": 0.289,
      "barrel_percent": 8.3,
      "hard_hit_percent": 39.7,
      "whiff_percent": 24.3
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 86,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 23.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8214,
        "prior_weight": 0.1786
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "663554",
      "report_date": "20260914",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 23,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 23.1,
            "ER": 13.0,
            "R": 18.0,
            "H": 22.0,
            "BB": 5.0,
            "SO": 15.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 99.0,
            "Pitches": 385.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.6,
            "R": 3.6,
            "H": 4.4,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 3.0,
            "HR": 1.4,
            "BF": 19.8,
            "Pitches": 77.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.0143,
            "WHIP": 1.1571,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.55714,
            "H_per_IP": 0.94286,
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            "HR_per_IP": 0.3
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        },
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          "per_game": {
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          "rates": {
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        },
        "season": {
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          "per_game": {
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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        "predicted_WHIP": {
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    "recent_form_analysis": {
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      "pitching": {
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      "fielding": {
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        "games_fielded": 10,
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-08T00:00:00"
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
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    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
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          "weights": {},
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        {
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          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
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            {
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        {
          "index": 3,
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          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "changed_metrics": [
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    "team_form_snapshot": {
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        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1477,
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          "run_differential": 8.0
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        "available": true,
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      "opponent": {
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          "run_differential": -28.0
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      "edges": {
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        "offense_edge": -0.0461,
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      "player_factors": {
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "663554",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "663554",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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          "components": {
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "663554",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 75,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
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              "pitches": 75,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
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              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
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            "pitch_mix": [
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                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
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            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.8784,
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            "components": {
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
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            "player_name": "Casey Mize",
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            "espn_total_ranked": 861,
            "metrics": {
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              "k_value": 107.0,
              "k_rank": "90",
              "k_per_9_value": 8.069833,
              "k_per_9_rank": 26.0,
              "whip_value": 1.1061,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 1.89,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9848,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9848,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.936,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0119,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.996,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 19,
      "Pitches": 82,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 5",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +5."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260914_SD@COL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260914

20260914_SD@COL

home

Tomoyuki Sugano

True

4.2

5.0

6/8

1/1

5/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 5.295399515738499,
      "WHIP": 1.3438256658595642,
      "IP": 137.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 26,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.295,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.8,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -1.0318,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0877,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.92,
      "walk_factor": 0.928,
      "homer_factor": 1.182,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 14.2,
      "bb_percent": 5.6,
      "woba": 0.361,
      "xwoba": 0.386,
      "barrel_percent": 12.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 43.1,
      "whiff_percent": 18.8
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 118,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 26.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8387,
        "prior_weight": 0.1613
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "608372",
      "report_date": "20260914",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 26,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 24.0,
            "ER": 25.0,
            "R": 26.0,
            "H": 36.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 18.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 117.0,
            "Pitches": 461.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 5.0,
            "R": 5.2,
            "H": 7.2,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 3.6,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 23.4,
            "Pitches": 92.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 9.375,
            "WHIP": 1.7917,
            "ER_per_IP": 1.04167,
            "H_per_IP": 1.5,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.29167,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.75,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.20833
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 53.1,
            "ER": 36.0,
            "R": 37.0,
            "H": 64.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 36.0,
            "HR": 13.0,
            "BF": 233.0,
            "Pitches": 892.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 3.6,
            "R": 3.7,
            "H": 6.4,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 3.6,
            "HR": 1.3,
            "BF": 23.3,
            "Pitches": 89.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.075,
            "WHIP": 1.3875,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.675,
            "H_per_IP": 1.2,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.1875,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.675,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.24375
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 26,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 137.2,
            "ER": 81.0,
            "R": 84.0,
            "H": 152.0,
            "BB": 33.0,
            "SO": 84.0,
            "HR": 29.0,
            "BF": 591.0,
            "Pitches": 2272.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 3.1154,
            "R": 3.2308,
            "H": 5.8462,
            "BB": 1.2692,
            "SO": 3.2308,
            "HR": 1.1154,
            "BF": 22.7308,
            "Pitches": 87.3846
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.2954,
            "WHIP": 1.3438,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.58838,
            "H_per_IP": 1.10412,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.23971,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.61017,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.21065
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 3.88,
        "predicted_H": 6.34,
        "predicted_BB": 1.335,
        "predicted_SO": 3.696,
        "predicted_HR": 1.052,
        "predicted_ERA": 6.9448,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.5263
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4181,
      "form_weight": 0.5819,
      "form_reliability": 0.8387,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 26.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8387,
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      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 3.88,
          "final": 3.9302,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 6.34,
          "final": 6.1978,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.335,
          "final": 1.1949,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 3.696,
          "final": 4.2413,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.052,
          "final": 1.0303,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 6.9448,
          "final": 6.9448,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.5263,
          "final": 1.5263,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 53.1,
        "ER": 36,
        "H": 64,
        "BB": 10,
        "SO": 36,
        "HR": 13,
        "ERA": 6.074999999999999,
        "WHIP": 1.3874999999999997,
        "K9": 6.074999999999999,
        "HR9": 2.1937499999999996,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 4,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-09T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.1849786498246524,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 6.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 26.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8387,
          "prior_weight": 0.1613
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.2,
          "predicted_ER": 4,
          "predicted_H": 6,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 5,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "608372",
      "player_name": "Tomoyuki Sugano",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "COL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.2,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": -0.8,
              "percent_delta": -0.16,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
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            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
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            {
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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          ],
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
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          {
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          {
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            "percent_delta": -0.16,
            "direction": "deboost",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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        ],
        "summary": {
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            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
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        "games": 149,
        "wins": 55,
        "losses": 94,
        "win_pct": 0.3691,
        "runs_scored": 696.0,
        "runs_allowed": 865.0,
        "run_differential": -169.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.1342,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.6711,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.8054,
        "offense_index": 1.039,
        "defense_index": 0.7744,
        "current_streak": "L7",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "losses": 8,
          "win_pct": 0.2,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 7.5,
          "run_differential": -28.0
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        "available": true,
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      "opponent": {
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        "losses": 68,
        "win_pct": 0.5436,
        "runs_scored": 639.0,
        "runs_allowed": 617.0,
        "run_differential": 22.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1477,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.2886,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1409,
        "offense_index": 0.9539,
        "defense_index": 1.0857,
        "current_streak": "W7",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "losses": 2,
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          "avg_runs_scored": 4.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0,
          "run_differential": 8.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1601
      },
      "edges": {
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        "offense_edge": 0.039,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0461,
        "defense_strength": -0.2256,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0857,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.6
      },
      "player_factors": {
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        "run_prevention": 1.0409,
        "strikeout": 0.9882
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "608372",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "608372",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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            "k_percent": 14.2,
            "bb_percent": 5.6,
            "woba": 0.361,
            "xwoba": 0.386,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 37.8,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 12.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 43.1,
            "avg_best_speed": 80.8643,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 95.1014,
            "whiff_percent": 18.8,
            "swing_percent": 46.8
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 130.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6536,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9166,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -1.4093,
            "command_and_miss": -0.6314,
            "regression_edge": -0.7143,
            "xwoba_edge": -2.1143,
            "barrel_edge": -1.1111,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.7429,
            "whiff_edge": -0.8857,
            "bb_edge": 0.9,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0876
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "608372",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 91,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 91,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.28503343281616,
              "release_spin_rate": 2303.912853324826,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 91,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.28503343281616,
                "release_spin_rate": 2303.912853324826,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.285,
              "release_spin_rate": 2303.9129,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0876,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.6255,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -1.0318,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0877,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.92,
          "walk_factor": 0.928,
          "homer_factor": 1.182,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.025,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "608372",
            "espn_id": 4142423,
            "player_name": "Tomoyuki Sugano",
            "team": "COL",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 118,
            "espn_total_ranked": 861,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 118,
              "gp_value": 26.0,
              "gp_rank": "313",
              "gs_value": 26.0,
              "gs_rank": "56",
              "qs_value": 8.0,
              "qs_rank": "77",
              "era_value": 5.2953,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 12.0,
              "w_rank": "17",
              "l_value": 9.0,
              "l_rank": "32",
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": "251",
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": "354",
              "ip_value": 137.2,
              "ip_rank": "69",
              "h_value": 152.0,
              "h_rank": "20",
              "er_value": 81.0,
              "er_rank": "14",
              "hr_value": 29.0,
              "hr_rank": "6",
              "bb_value": 33.0,
              "bb_rank": "143",
              "k_value": 84.0,
              "k_rank": "149",
              "k_per_9_value": 5.4915257,
              "k_per_9_rank": 58.0,
              "whip_value": 1.3438,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 1.52,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0877,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 1.0877,
            "adjusted": 8
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.928,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.182,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.92,
            "adjusted": 3
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.2,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 93,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +3."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260914_SD@COL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260914

20260914_SEA@LAA

away

Kade Anderson

True

5.0

4.1

-2

5/7

0/0

5/5

Last 10 before this game (4 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.285714285714286,
      "WHIP": 1.380952380952381,
      "IP": 21.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 4,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.25,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.25,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.0428,
      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0036,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.982,
      "walk_factor": 1.0,
      "homer_factor": 1.0058,
      "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 18.4,
      "bb_percent": 9.2,
      "woba": 0.341,
      "xwoba": 0.309,
      "barrel_percent": 7.9,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.1,
      "whiff_percent": 21.6
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 347,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 1.0
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 4.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.4444,
        "prior_weight": 0.5556
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "807739",
      "report_date": "20260914",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 4,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 4,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 21.0,
            "ER": 10.0,
            "R": 10.0,
            "H": 21.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 16.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 87.0,
            "Pitches": 326.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.5,
            "R": 2.5,
            "H": 5.25,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 4.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 21.75,
            "Pitches": 81.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.2857,
            "WHIP": 1.381,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.47619,
            "H_per_IP": 1.0,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.38095,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.7619,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.19048
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 4,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 21.0,
            "ER": 10.0,
            "R": 10.0,
            "H": 21.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 16.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 87.0,
            "Pitches": 326.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.5,
            "R": 2.5,
            "H": 5.25,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 4.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 21.75,
            "Pitches": 81.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.2857,
            "WHIP": 1.381,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.47619,
            "H_per_IP": 1.0,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.38095,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.7619,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.19048
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 4,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 21.0,
            "ER": 10.0,
            "R": 10.0,
            "H": 21.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 16.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 87.0,
            "Pitches": 326.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.5,
            "R": 2.5,
            "H": 5.25,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 4.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 21.75,
            "Pitches": 81.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.2857,
            "WHIP": 1.381,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.47619,
            "H_per_IP": 1.0,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.38095,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.7619,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.19048
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.538,
        "predicted_H": 5.077,
        "predicted_BB": 1.937,
        "predicted_SO": 4.429,
        "predicted_HR": 0.858,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.4362,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3625
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.5847,
      "form_weight": 0.4153,
      "form_reliability": 0.4444,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 4.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.4444,
        "prior_weight": 0.5556
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.538,
          "final": 1.6387,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.077,
          "final": 5.032,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.937,
          "final": 0.8044,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.429,
          "final": 4.7629,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.858,
          "final": 0.941,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.4362,
          "final": 4.4362,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3625,
          "final": 1.3625,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "insufficient_data"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 21.0,
        "ER": 10,
        "H": 21,
        "BB": 8,
        "SO": 16,
        "HR": 4,
        "ERA": 4.285714285714286,
        "WHIP": 1.380952380952381,
        "K9": 6.857142857142857,
        "HR9": 1.7142857142857142,
        "games_pitched": 4,
        "quality_starts": 1,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 4,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 4,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-09T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.988610685025425,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 4.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.4444,
          "prior_weight": 0.5556
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "807739",
      "player_name": "Kade Anderson",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "SEA",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 1.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 0,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
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          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": null,
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          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "SEA",
        "games": 150,
        "wins": 70,
        "losses": 80,
        "win_pct": 0.4667,
        "runs_scored": 612.0,
        "runs_allowed": 670.0,
        "run_differential": -58.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3867,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.08,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4667,
        "offense_index": 0.9068,
        "defense_index": 1.0074,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.0,
          "run_differential": 7.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1106
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "LAA",
        "games": 149,
        "wins": 56,
        "losses": 93,
        "win_pct": 0.3758,
        "runs_scored": 604.0,
        "runs_allowed": 680.0,
        "run_differential": -76.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.5101,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0537,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5638,
        "offense_index": 0.9009,
        "defense_index": 0.9859,
        "current_streak": "L3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.5,
          "run_differential": 1.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.2379
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.1273,
        "offense_edge": -0.0932,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0991,
        "defense_strength": 0.0074,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0141,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0093,
        "run_prevention": 0.977,
        "strikeout": 1.0117
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "807739",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "807739",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 63.0,
            "k_percent": 18.4,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.341,
            "xwoba": 0.309,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 36.5,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.9,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.1,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.2211,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.849,
            "whiff_percent": 21.6,
            "swing_percent": 52.5
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 130.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6536,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9166,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.1374,
            "command_and_miss": -0.4014,
            "regression_edge": 0.9143,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.0857,
            "barrel_edge": -0.1778,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.0286,
            "whiff_edge": -0.4857,
            "bb_edge": 0.0,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0642
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "807739",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 81,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 81,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.70165546700004,
              "release_spin_rate": 2145.10400951129,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 81,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.70165546700004,
                "release_spin_rate": 2145.10400951129,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.7017,
              "release_spin_rate": 2145.104,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0642,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.4589,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.0428,
          "sample_weight": 0.45,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0036,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.982,
          "walk_factor": 1.0,
          "homer_factor": 1.0058,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.032,
          "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "807739",
            "espn_id": 5198748,
            "player_name": "Kade Anderson",
            "team": "SEA",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 347,
            "espn_total_ranked": 861,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 347,
              "gp_value": 4.0,
              "gp_rank": "671",
              "gs_value": 4.0,
              "gs_rank": "237",
              "qs_value": 1.0,
              "qs_rank": "178",
              "era_value": 4.2857,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 1.0,
              "w_rank": "414",
              "l_value": 1.0,
              "l_rank": "429",
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": "251",
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": "354",
              "ip_value": 21.0,
              "ip_rank": "507",
              "h_value": 21.0,
              "h_rank": "504",
              "er_value": 10.0,
              "er_rank": "535",
              "hr_value": 4.0,
              "hr_rank": "379",
              "bb_value": 8.0,
              "bb_rank": "528",
              "k_value": 16.0,
              "k_rank": "526",
              "k_per_9_value": 6.857143,
              "k_per_9_rank": 28.0,
              "whip_value": 1.3809,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.2,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0016,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0016,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0026,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9919,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 90,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 4 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +4; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260914_SEA@LAA.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260914

20260914_SEA@LAA

home

Reid Detmers

True

6.1

6.0

-1

4/7

2/1

7/8

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "ERA": 3.3214285714285716,
      "WHIP": 1.0357142857142858,
      "IP": 168.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 29,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.793,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.6,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.4862,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9587,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0589,
      "walk_factor": 0.95,
      "homer_factor": 0.9743,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 28.4,
      "bb_percent": 6.7,
      "woba": 0.268,
      "xwoba": 0.277,
      "barrel_percent": 7.5,
      "hard_hit_percent": 37.4,
      "whiff_percent": 28.9
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 18,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 29.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8529,
        "prior_weight": 0.1471
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "672282",
      "report_date": "20260914",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 29,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 33.0,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 23.0,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 35.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 118.0,
            "Pitches": 478.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.2,
            "ER": 0.4,
            "R": 0.4,
            "H": 4.6,
            "BB": 0.4,
            "SO": 7.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 23.6,
            "Pitches": 95.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 0.5455,
            "WHIP": 0.7576,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.06061,
            "H_per_IP": 0.69697,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.06061,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.06061,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 59.1,
            "ER": 9.0,
            "R": 9.0,
            "H": 40.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 68.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 220.0,
            "Pitches": 902.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 0.9,
            "R": 0.9,
            "H": 4.0,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 6.8,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 22.0,
            "Pitches": 90.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.3652,
            "WHIP": 0.8427,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.15169,
            "H_per_IP": 0.67416,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.16854,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.14607,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08427
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 29,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 168.0,
            "ER": 62.0,
            "R": 65.0,
            "H": 129.0,
            "BB": 45.0,
            "SO": 191.0,
            "HR": 17.0,
            "BF": 672.0,
            "Pitches": 2696.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.1379,
            "R": 2.2414,
            "H": 4.4483,
            "BB": 1.5517,
            "SO": 6.5862,
            "HR": 0.5862,
            "BF": 23.1724,
            "Pitches": 92.9655
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.3214,
            "WHIP": 1.0357,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.36905,
            "H_per_IP": 0.76786,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.26786,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.1369,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10119
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.1,
        "predicted_ER": 1.287,
        "predicted_H": 4.643,
        "predicted_BB": 1.088,
        "predicted_SO": 6.756,
        "predicted_HR": 0.401,
        "predicted_ERA": 1.8537,
        "predicted_WHIP": 0.9172
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4121,
      "form_weight": 0.5879,
      "form_reliability": 0.8529,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 29.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8529,
        "prior_weight": 0.1471
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      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.1,
          "form": 6.1,
          "final": 6.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.287,
          "final": 1.5809,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 4.643,
          "final": 4.378,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.088,
          "final": 1.4639,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 6.756,
          "final": 6.8566,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.401,
          "final": 0.2357,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.8537,
          "final": 1.8537,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 0.9172,
          "final": 0.9172,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 59.1,
        "ER": 9,
        "H": 40,
        "BB": 10,
        "SO": 68,
        "HR": 5,
        "ERA": 1.3651685393258426,
        "WHIP": 0.8426966292134831,
        "K9": 10.314606741573034,
        "HR9": 0.7584269662921348,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 7,
        "dominant_form": true,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-08T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.6881873339015281,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 7.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 29.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8529,
          "prior_weight": 0.1471
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.1,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 4,
          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 7,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "672282",
      "player_name": "Reid Detmers",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "LAA",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.1,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.3333,
              "after": 6.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0368,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.3333,
              "after": 6.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0368,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.1,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.1,
              "after": 6.1,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.3333,
            "after": 6.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0368,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 7.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.3333,
            "after": 6.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0368,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "LAA",
        "games": 149,
        "wins": 56,
        "losses": 93,
        "win_pct": 0.3758,
        "runs_scored": 604.0,
        "runs_allowed": 680.0,
        "run_differential": -76.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.5101,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0537,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5638,
        "offense_index": 0.9009,
        "defense_index": 0.9859,
        "current_streak": "L3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.5,
          "run_differential": 1.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.2379
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "SEA",
        "games": 150,
        "wins": 70,
        "losses": 80,
        "win_pct": 0.4667,
        "runs_scored": 612.0,
        "runs_allowed": 670.0,
        "run_differential": -58.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3867,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.08,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4667,
        "offense_index": 0.9068,
        "defense_index": 1.0074,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.0,
          "run_differential": 7.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1106
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.1273,
        "offense_edge": -0.0991,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0932,
        "defense_strength": -0.0141,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0074,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9982,
        "run_prevention": 0.9929,
        "strikeout": 1.0036
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "672282",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "672282",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 648.0,
            "k_percent": 28.4,
            "bb_percent": 6.7,
            "woba": 0.268,
            "xwoba": 0.277,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 30.7,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.5,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.4,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.8742,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.1933,
            "whiff_percent": 28.9,
            "swing_percent": 49.5
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 130.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6536,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9166,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.5893,
            "command_and_miss": 0.7314,
            "regression_edge": -0.2571,
            "xwoba_edge": 1.0,
            "barrel_edge": -0.0889,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.0714,
            "whiff_edge": 0.5571,
            "bb_edge": 0.625,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.1031
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "672282",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 90,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 90,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.00784594490138,
              "release_spin_rate": 2234.6501343386294,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 90,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.00784594490138,
                "release_spin_rate": 2234.6501343386294,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.0078,
              "release_spin_rate": 2234.6501,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1031,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.7364,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.4862,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9587,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0589,
          "walk_factor": 0.95,
          "homer_factor": 0.9743,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.009,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "672282",
            "espn_id": 4326697,
            "player_name": "Reid Detmers",
            "team": "LAA",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 18,
            "espn_total_ranked": 861,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 18,
              "gp_value": 29.0,
              "gp_rank": "244",
              "gs_value": 29.0,
              "gs_rank": "14",
              "qs_value": 14.0,
              "qs_rank": "25",
              "era_value": 3.3214,
              "era_rank": 18.0,
              "w_value": 5.0,
              "w_rank": "150",
              "l_value": 8.0,
              "l_rank": "64",
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": "251",
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": "354",
              "ip_value": 168.0,
              "ip_rank": "14",
              "h_value": 129.0,
              "h_rank": "68",
              "er_value": 62.0,
              "er_rank": "62",
              "hr_value": 17.0,
              "hr_rank": "74",
              "bb_value": 45.0,
              "bb_rank": "65",
              "k_value": 191.0,
              "k_rank": "8",
              "k_per_9_value": 10.232143,
              "k_per_9_rank": 15.0,
              "whip_value": 1.0357,
              "whip_rank": 7.0,
              "war_value": 3.82,
              "war_rank": 17.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9587,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9587,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.95,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9743,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 1.0589,
            "adjusted": 7
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.1,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 26,
      "Pitches": 112,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260914_SEA@LAA.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260914

20260914_SF@STL

away

Landen Roupp

True

5.1

4.1

-3

4/5

3/3

3/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.0022123893805315,
      "WHIP": 1.2809734513274338,
      "IP": 150.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 28,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.381,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.4,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.2291,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9805,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9971,
      "walk_factor": 1.042,
      "homer_factor": 0.8974,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 21.8,
      "bb_percent": 11.3,
      "woba": 0.293,
      "xwoba": 0.298,
      "barrel_percent": 4.8,
      "hard_hit_percent": 29.2,
      "whiff_percent": 24.7
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 128,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 28.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8485,
        "prior_weight": 0.1515
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "694738",
      "report_date": "20260914",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 28,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 27.0,
            "ER": 9.0,
            "R": 10.0,
            "H": 18.0,
            "BB": 15.0,
            "SO": 16.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 115.0,
            "Pitches": 432.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 3.6,
            "BB": 3.0,
            "SO": 3.2,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 23.0,
            "Pitches": 86.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.0,
            "WHIP": 1.2222,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.33333,
            "H_per_IP": 0.66667,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.55556,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.59259,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07407
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 53.2,
            "ER": 21.0,
            "R": 22.0,
            "H": 36.0,
            "BB": 30.0,
            "SO": 35.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 226.0,
            "Pitches": 888.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.1,
            "R": 2.2,
            "H": 3.6,
            "BB": 3.0,
            "SO": 3.5,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 22.6,
            "Pitches": 88.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.5217,
            "WHIP": 1.2298,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.3913,
            "H_per_IP": 0.67081,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.55901,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.65217,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07453
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 28,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 150.2,
            "ER": 67.0,
            "R": 72.0,
            "H": 121.0,
            "BB": 72.0,
            "SO": 139.0,
            "HR": 11.0,
            "BF": 637.0,
            "Pitches": 2624.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.3929,
            "R": 2.5714,
            "H": 4.3214,
            "BB": 2.5714,
            "SO": 4.9643,
            "HR": 0.3929,
            "BF": 22.75,
            "Pitches": 93.7143
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.0022,
            "WHIP": 1.281,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.44469,
            "H_per_IP": 0.8031,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.47788,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.92257,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07301
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.11,
        "predicted_H": 3.935,
        "predicted_BB": 2.75,
        "predicted_SO": 3.833,
        "predicted_HR": 0.454,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.5608,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2534
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.414,
      "form_weight": 0.586,
      "form_reliability": 0.8485,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 28.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8485,
        "prior_weight": 0.1515
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.1,
          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.11,
          "final": 1.6505,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 3.935,
          "final": 3.9619,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.75,
          "final": 2.8535,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 3.833,
          "final": 3.4881,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.454,
          "final": 0.68,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.5608,
          "final": 3.5608,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2534,
          "final": 1.2534,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 53.2,
        "ER": 21,
        "H": 36,
        "BB": 30,
        "SO": 35,
        "HR": 4,
        "ERA": 3.5217391304347823,
        "WHIP": 1.2298136645962732,
        "K9": 5.869565217391304,
        "HR9": 0.670807453416149,
        "games_pitched": 10,
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      },
      "fielding": {
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        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-08T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8937946436134723,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
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        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 28.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8485,
          "prior_weight": 0.1515
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "694738",
      "player_name": "Landen Roupp",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "SF",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.3333,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
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            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.1,
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          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 1.0,
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0437,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
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          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
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            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "SF",
        "games": 150,
        "wins": 62,
        "losses": 88,
        "win_pct": 0.4133,
        "runs_scored": 632.0,
        "runs_allowed": 709.0,
        "run_differential": -77.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.5133,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.2133,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7267,
        "offense_index": 0.9374,
        "defense_index": 0.9509,
        "current_streak": "L3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.5,
          "run_differential": -7.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1715
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "STL",
        "games": 150,
        "wins": 74,
        "losses": 76,
        "win_pct": 0.4933,
        "runs_scored": 683.0,
        "runs_allowed": 690.0,
        "run_differential": -7.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.0467,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5533,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6,
        "offense_index": 1.013,
        "defense_index": 0.9771,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.1,
          "run_differential": 1.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0464
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.1251,
        "offense_edge": -0.0626,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.013,
        "defense_strength": -0.0491,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0229,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.993,
        "run_prevention": 1.0132,
        "strikeout": 0.9952
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "694738",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "694738",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 611.0,
            "k_percent": 21.8,
            "bb_percent": 11.3,
            "woba": 0.293,
            "xwoba": 0.298,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 32.1,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 4.8,
            "hard_hit_percent": 29.2,
            "avg_best_speed": 75.2327,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 92.5867,
            "whiff_percent": 24.7,
            "swing_percent": 43.6
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 130.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6536,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9166,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.5175,
            "command_and_miss": -0.1329,
            "regression_edge": -0.1429,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.4,
            "barrel_edge": 0.5111,
            "hard_hit_edge": 1.2429,
            "whiff_edge": -0.0429,
            "bb_edge": -0.525,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.1478
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "694738",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 87,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 87,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 87.20871691049764,
              "release_spin_rate": 2324.8352762766335,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 87,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 87.20871691049764,
                "release_spin_rate": 2324.8352762766335,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.2087,
              "release_spin_rate": 2324.8353,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1478,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.056,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.2291,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9805,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9971,
          "walk_factor": 1.042,
          "homer_factor": 0.8974,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.005,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "694738",
            "espn_id": 4345404,
            "player_name": "Landen Roupp",
            "team": "SF",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 128,
            "espn_total_ranked": 861,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 128,
              "gp_value": 28.0,
              "gp_rank": "278",
              "gs_value": 28.0,
              "gs_rank": "33",
              "qs_value": 11.0,
              "qs_rank": "47",
              "era_value": 4.0022,
              "era_rank": 34.0,
              "w_value": 9.0,
              "w_rank": "44",
              "l_value": 13.0,
              "l_rank": "6",
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": "251",
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": "354",
              "ip_value": 150.2,
              "ip_rank": "46",
              "h_value": 121.0,
              "h_rank": "80",
              "er_value": 67.0,
              "er_rank": "45",
              "hr_value": 11.0,
              "hr_rank": "150",
              "bb_value": 72.0,
              "bb_rank": "3",
              "k_value": 139.0,
              "k_rank": "47",
              "k_per_9_value": 8.303098,
              "k_per_9_rank": 27.0,
              "whip_value": 1.2809,
              "whip_rank": 36.0,
              "war_value": 1.45,
              "war_rank": 39.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9805,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9805,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.042,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.8974,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9971,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 3,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 103,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260914_SF@STL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260914

20260914_SF@STL

home

Quinn Mathews

True

5.0

6.2

-1

5/4

0/2

4/8

Last 10 before this game (6 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.108695652173913,
      "WHIP": 1.5,
      "IP": 30.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 6,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.111,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.133,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.1339,
      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9886,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9987,
      "walk_factor": 1.009,
      "homer_factor": 0.9475,
      "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 20.4,
      "bb_percent": 10.2,
      "woba": 0.324,
      "xwoba": 0.291,
      "barrel_percent": 2.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 36.2,
      "whiff_percent": 26.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 289,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.8653846153846154,
        "last_10": 0.1346153846153846
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 6.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.5455,
        "prior_weight": 0.4545
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "687273",
      "report_date": "20260914",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 6,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 25.2,
            "ER": 12.0,
            "R": 12.0,
            "H": 26.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 25.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 113.0,
            "Pitches": 494.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 5.2,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 5.0,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 22.6,
            "Pitches": 98.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.2078,
            "WHIP": 1.4416,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.46753,
            "H_per_IP": 1.01299,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.42857,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.97403,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11688
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 6,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 30.2,
            "ER": 14.0,
            "R": 14.0,
            "H": 32.0,
            "BB": 14.0,
            "SO": 28.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 137.0,
            "Pitches": 591.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.3333,
            "R": 2.3333,
            "H": 5.3333,
            "BB": 2.3333,
            "SO": 4.6667,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 22.8333,
            "Pitches": 98.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.1087,
            "WHIP": 1.5,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.45652,
            "H_per_IP": 1.04348,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.45652,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.91304,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09783
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 6,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 30.2,
            "ER": 14.0,
            "R": 14.0,
            "H": 32.0,
            "BB": 14.0,
            "SO": 28.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 137.0,
            "Pitches": 591.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.3333,
            "R": 2.3333,
            "H": 5.3333,
            "BB": 2.3333,
            "SO": 4.6667,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 22.8333,
            "Pitches": 98.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.1087,
            "WHIP": 1.5,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.45652,
            "H_per_IP": 1.04348,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.45652,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.91304,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09783
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.422,
        "predicted_H": 4.99,
        "predicted_BB": 2.026,
        "predicted_SO": 4.768,
        "predicted_HR": 0.647,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.3591,
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
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      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
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      "adaptive_parameters": {
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.5455,
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
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        "predicted_H": {
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        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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        "predicted_SO": {
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        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
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          "final": 4.3591,
          "source": "form_only"
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        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
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          "final": 1.4032,
          "source": "form_only"
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
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        "HR": 0,
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        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
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        "games_played": 0,
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        "cold_streak": true,
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      "pitching": {
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        "games_pitched": 6,
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      "fielding": {
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        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 6,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 6,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-08T00:00:00"
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    "recent_form_boost": 0.9665819106942177,
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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          "data_weight": 0.5455,
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      },
      {
        "step": "starter_quality_floor",
        "description": "Weak starter floor restored expected damage from recent form instead of assigning it to zero-inning bullpen rows.",
        "stats": {
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "687273",
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      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "STL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_quality_floor",
          "description": "Weak starter floor restored expected damage from recent form instead of assigning it to zero-inning bullpen rows.",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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            {
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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          ],
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
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          {
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          {
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        ],
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          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
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        "games": 150,
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        "losses": 76,
        "win_pct": 0.4933,
        "runs_scored": 683.0,
        "runs_allowed": 690.0,
        "run_differential": -7.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.0467,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5533,
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        "recent": {
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          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.1,
          "run_differential": 1.0
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        "available": true,
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      "opponent": {
        "team": "SF",
        "games": 150,
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        "losses": 88,
        "win_pct": 0.4133,
        "runs_scored": 632.0,
        "runs_allowed": 709.0,
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        "run_differential_per_game": -0.5133,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.2133,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7267,
        "offense_index": 0.9374,
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        "recent": {
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          "avg_runs_scored": 4.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.5,
          "run_differential": -7.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1715
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.1251,
        "offense_edge": 0.013,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0626,
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        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
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      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0068,
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        "strikeout": 1.0088
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "687273",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "687273",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 112.0,
            "k_percent": 20.4,
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            "woba": 0.324,
            "xwoba": 0.291,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 30.9,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 2.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 36.2,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.714,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.6151,
            "whiff_percent": 26.1,
            "swing_percent": 44.7
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          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 130.0,
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            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
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            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9166,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
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          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.4265,
            "command_and_miss": -0.0979,
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          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "687273",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 98,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 98,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 87.58184436300705,
              "release_spin_rate": 2134.708276838153,
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              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
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              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
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            "pitch_mix": [
              {
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                "pitches": 98,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
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                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
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                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.5818,
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              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
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            "components": {
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              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
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              "velocity_edge": -0.9068,
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              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
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            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.1339,
          "sample_weight": 0.45,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9886,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9987,
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          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.033,
          "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_id": "687273",
            "espn_id": 4837405,
            "player_name": "Quinn Mathews",
            "team": "STL",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 289,
            "espn_total_ranked": 861,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 289,
              "gp_value": 6.0,
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              "gs_value": 6.0,
              "gs_rank": "208",
              "qs_value": 1.0,
              "qs_rank": "178",
              "era_value": 4.1086,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 1.0,
              "w_rank": "414",
              "l_value": 3.0,
              "l_rank": "245",
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": "251",
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": "354",
              "ip_value": 30.2,
              "ip_rank": "433",
              "h_value": 32.0,
              "h_rank": "403",
              "er_value": 14.0,
              "er_rank": "450",
              "hr_value": 3.0,
              "hr_rank": "452",
              "bb_value": 14.0,
              "bb_rank": "402",
              "k_value": 28.0,
              "k_rank": "430",
              "k_per_9_value": 8.217391,
              "k_per_9_rank": 26.0,
              "whip_value": 1.5,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.38,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9949,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
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          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.004,
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          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9994,
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 20,
      "Pitches": 78,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 6 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260914_SF@STL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}