Continuous postgame learning

daily_20260912 · dates 20260912 · generated 2026-09-13T09:00:17.771474+00:00

8-7

Winner picks · 53.3%

Comparable starters · 0 identity mismatches

15/30

Starter ER within ±1

15/30

Starter workload within ±1 inning

Slate coverage

Every calendar day in the requested window is listed. Pending means the prediction exists but the official final result has not settled; Missing review artifact identifies a data gap instead of hiding the day.

Date	Games	Settled	Pending	Hits	Misses	Calibration traces	Review status	Pipeline versions
20260912	15	15	0	8	7	15	Available	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Prioritized optimization roadmap

Runtime evidence for the six recommendations. “Observed games” counts artifacts generated with the relevant trace; older artifacts remain honestly blank.

Priority	Change	Status	Observed games	Evidence
P1	Empirical Confidence Blend	Implemented And Applied	15	applied games: 15formula: w_emp=min(0.5,sample_size/200); final=(1-w_emp)raw+w_empempirical_hit_rate
P1	H2H Base Feature	Implemented And Monitored	15	available games: 15
P2	Score Distribution Widening	Implemented Above 1.4X	15	variance multipliers: [1.85]
P2	Simulation Flip Control	Diagnostic Only Without Independent Support	15	simulation flip candidates: 0published flips: 0
P3	Recent Form Quality Blend	Implemented Last 10	15	configured window: 10last 10 games: 15observed windows: [10]
P3	Continuous Calibration Audit	Implemented	15	settled games: 15metric: bucket_calibration_error

Confidence calibration by bucket

bucket_calibration_error = average published confidence − observed hit rate. Positive means overconfident; negative means underconfident. Weighted absolute error: 0.1711.

Bucket	Games	Average confidence	Observed hit rate	Calibration error	Direction
0.50-0.55	11	52.6%	63.6%	-11.1%	underconfident
0.55-0.60	3	58.3%	33.3%	24.9%	overconfident
0.60-0.65	1	60.0%	0.0%	60.0%	overconfident

Where the score pipeline gained or lost quality

Direct comparison against official final runs. Positive deltas mean the stage was worse than historical_ml; this is score error, not a synthetic one-game ERA.

Stage	Games	Team-run MAE	Total-run MAE	Margin MAE	Winner accuracy	Δ team MAE vs base	Δ margin MAE vs base
historical_ml	15	2.8836	4.1122	4.202	53.3%	0.0	0.0
variance_applied	15	2.8333	3.9333	4.2	46.7%	-0.0503	-0.002
enhanced_prediction	15	3.0333	4.4667	4.2	53.3%	0.1497	-0.002
embedded_savant_run_environment	15	3.0	4.2667	4.1333	53.3%	0.1164	-0.0687
fundamental_edge_target_review	15	3.0	4.2667	4.1333	53.3%	0.1164	-0.0687
capped_target	15	3.0	4.2667	4.1333	53.3%	0.1164	-0.0687
simulation_result	15	3.0	4.2667	4.1333	53.3%	0.1164	-0.0687
published_final	15	3.0	4.2667	4.1333	53.3%	0.1164	-0.0687

Largest measured regression

{
  "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
  "games": 15,
  "team_run_mae": 3.0333,
  "total_run_mae": 4.4667,
  "margin_mae": 4.2,
  "winner_hits": 8,
  "winner_accuracy": 0.5333,
  "team_run_mae_delta_vs_historical_ml": 0.1497,
  "margin_mae_delta_vs_historical_ml": -0.002
}

Automatic questions

Which recorded score stage reinforced losing picks?

partial_attribution sample=7

Largest positive recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. Positive, negative, net, absolute, and unchanged movements are shown separately so opposite games cannot cancel into a misleading zero. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution.

Stage	Positive Toward Pick Run Delta	Negative Away From Pick Run Delta	Net Toward Pick Run Delta	Absolute Run Movement	Games Recorded	Games Supporting Pick	Games Opposing Pick	Games Unchanged	Meaning
enhanced_prediction	4.0	-1.0	3.0	5.0	7	3	1	3	reinforced final pick
embedded_savant_run_environment	2.0	0.0	2.0	2.0	7	2	0	5	reinforced final pick
variance_applied	0.9117	-0.6009	0.3108	1.5126	7	3	4	0	reinforced final pick
fundamental_edge_target_review	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	7	0	0	7	recorded but did not change score margin
capped_target	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	7	0	0	7	recorded but did not change score margin
simulation_result	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	7	0	0	7	recorded but did not change score margin

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "partial_attribution",
  "sample_size": 7,
  "top_stage": "enhanced_prediction",
  "ranking": [
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 4.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -1.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 3.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 5.0,
      "games_recorded": 7,
      "games_supporting_pick": 3,
      "games_opposing_pick": 1,
      "games_unchanged": 3,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 2.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 2.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 2.0,
      "games_recorded": 7,
      "games_supporting_pick": 2,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 5,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.9117,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -0.6009,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.3108,
      "absolute_run_movement": 1.5126,
      "games_recorded": 7,
      "games_supporting_pick": 3,
      "games_opposing_pick": 4,
      "games_unchanged": 0,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 7,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 7,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 7,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 7,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 7,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 7,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    }
  ],
  "interpretation": "Largest positive recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. Positive, negative, net, absolute, and unchanged movements are shown separately so opposite games cannot cancel into a misleading zero. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution."
}

Which recorded score stage reinforced winning picks?

partial_attribution sample=8

Stage	Positive Toward Pick Run Delta	Negative Away From Pick Run Delta	Net Toward Pick Run Delta	Absolute Run Movement	Games Recorded	Games Supporting Pick	Games Opposing Pick	Games Unchanged	Meaning
enhanced_prediction	5.0	-2.0	3.0	7.0	8	3	1	4	reinforced final pick
embedded_savant_run_environment	3.0	0.0	3.0	3.0	8	3	0	5	reinforced final pick
variance_applied	1.3488	-1.0081	0.3407	2.3569	8	4	4	0	reinforced final pick
fundamental_edge_target_review	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	8	0	0	8	recorded but did not change score margin
capped_target	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	8	0	0	8	recorded but did not change score margin
simulation_result	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	8	0	0	8	recorded but did not change score margin

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "partial_attribution",
  "sample_size": 8,
  "top_stage": "enhanced_prediction",
  "ranking": [
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 5.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -2.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 3.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 7.0,
      "games_recorded": 8,
      "games_supporting_pick": 3,
      "games_opposing_pick": 1,
      "games_unchanged": 4,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 3.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 3.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 3.0,
      "games_recorded": 8,
      "games_supporting_pick": 3,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 5,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.3488,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -1.0081,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.3407,
      "absolute_run_movement": 2.3569,
      "games_recorded": 8,
      "games_supporting_pick": 4,
      "games_opposing_pick": 4,
      "games_unchanged": 0,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 8,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 8,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 8,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 8,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 8,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 8,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    }
  ],
  "interpretation": "Largest positive recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. Positive, negative, net, absolute, and unchanged movements are shown separately so opposite games cannot cancel into a misleading zero. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution."
}

Are Overs performing worse than Unders?

not_measurable sample=0

The current artifacts contain predicted totals but no total line, Over/Under selection, price, or settled total bet.

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "The current artifacts contain predicted totals but no total line, Over/Under selection, price, or settled total bet.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "total_line",
    "total_selection",
    "odds",
    "settled_result"
  ]
}

Are hitter props outperforming pitcher props?

not_measurable sample=0

Player stat projections are not stored as priced, selected, and settled prop predictions.

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "Player stat projections are not stored as priced, selected, and settled prop predictions.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "prop_family",
    "prop_line",
    "selection",
    "odds",
    "settled_result"
  ]
}

Which sportsbooks produce better opportunities?

not_measurable sample=0

No settled prediction was linked to a sportsbook snapshot.

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "No settled prediction was linked to a sportsbook snapshot.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "sportsbook",
    "selection_odds",
    "settled_profit"
  ],
  "books": []
}

Which confidence ranges underperform?

insufficient_sample sample=15

Range	Sample Size	Hits	Misses	Accuracy
[0.000, 0.525)	4	2	2	0.5
[0.525, 0.550)	7	5	2	0.7143
[0.550, 0.600)	3	1	2	0.3333
[0.600, 1.010)	1	0	1	0.0

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 15,
  "minimum_recommended_sample": 20,
  "worst_observed_range": {
    "range": "[0.600, 1.010)",
    "sample_size": 1,
    "hits": 0,
    "misses": 1,
    "accuracy": 0.0
  },
  "ranges": [
    {
      "range": "[0.000, 0.525)",
      "sample_size": 4,
      "hits": 2,
      "misses": 2,
      "accuracy": 0.5
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.525, 0.550)",
      "sample_size": 7,
      "hits": 5,
      "misses": 2,
      "accuracy": 0.7143
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.550, 0.600)",
      "sample_size": 3,
      "hits": 1,
      "misses": 2,
      "accuracy": 0.3333
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.600, 1.010)",
      "sample_size": 1,
      "hits": 0,
      "misses": 1,
      "accuracy": 0.0
    }
  ]
}

Which monitored features are drifting?

insufficient_sample sample=15

Three slates are descriptive only and cannot establish statistical feature drift.

Date	Sample Size	Mean Confidence	Mean Predicted Total	Accuracy
20260912	15	0.5421	9.6667	0.5333

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 15,
  "minimum_baseline_sample": 30,
  "minimum_recent_sample": 20,
  "reason": "Three slates are descriptive only and cannot establish statistical feature drift.",
  "daily_monitors": [
    {
      "date": "20260912",
      "sample_size": 15,
      "mean_confidence": 0.5421,
      "mean_predicted_total": 9.6667,
      "accuracy": 0.5333
    }
  ],
  "features_monitored": [
    "confidence",
    "predicted_total",
    "winner_accuracy"
  ]
}

Which model version introduced errors?

insufficient_sample sample=15

Version error claims require at least 30 settled predictions per version.

Pipeline Version	Model Schema Version	Policy Version	Sample Size	Hits	Misses	Accuracy
enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	historical_game_temporal_v11	model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3	15	8	7	0.5333

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 15,
  "minimum_sample_per_version": 30,
  "versions": [
    {
      "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "sample_size": 15,
      "hits": 8,
      "misses": 7,
      "accuracy": 0.5333
    }
  ],
  "reason": "Version error claims require at least 30 settled predictions per version."
}

Game processing context

How each game moved from the historical model through confidence calibration, H2H and recent-form signals, score distribution and simulation policy. Postgame learning is added only after the official result settles.

20260912_BAL@TOR

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickTOR

Published scoreBAL 3 - 4 TOR

Final confidence53.0%

Calibrationraw 55.6% → blended 55.7%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.8% · weight 50.0% · n=267

H2H base featurehome net -13.0 · absolute 13.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.0675

Simulation variance1.85

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.234862132692605-5.508212066451755	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	3-6	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	3-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	3-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	3-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	3-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	3-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "TOR",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": 0.06,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.53,
    "away_win_probability": 0.47
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.06,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "TOR wins 4-3",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "BAL 3 - 4 TOR",
    "confidence": 0.53,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.556469,
    "sample_size": 267,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5581,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.557284,
    "published_confidence": 0.53,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -13.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 13.0,
    "home_average_margin": -2.6,
    "home_run_delta": -0.075,
    "away_run_delta": 0.075,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -10.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.1115,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.4,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.0675
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02814368161577459
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02799103666295569
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.026972662100078943
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02682636849180564
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.02485948017581114
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06361886010728458,
      "1": 0.10119075165981788,
      "2": 0.1381332053457018,
      "3": 0.16182949781812683,
      "4": 0.16271201090103263,
      "5": 0.140405418229331,
      "6": 0.10398015289843637,
      "7": 0.06608750633705607,
      "8": 0.03604878299420232,
      "9": 0.016875792591799627,
      "10": 0.00678016214345879,
      "11": 0.0023378589737520702
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.07231973217162954,
      "1": 0.11424510509163316,
      "2": 0.15278208435965787,
      "3": 0.17296622087039784,
      "4": 0.1657693365764172,
      "5": 0.1344934514732819,
      "6": 0.09237450309669457,
      "7": 0.05371024437209634,
      "8": 0.02643724393288973,
      "9": 0.011016135391846458,
      "10": 0.0038859426634553175
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.85,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "BAL 3 - 4 TOR",
      "winner": "TOR"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "BAL 3 - 4 TOR",
      "winner": "TOR"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.1431,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.33,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "TOR",
      "model_winner": "TOR",
      "simulation_winner": "TOR",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
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        "draw_count": 2,
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        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "TOR",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
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      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
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      "simulation_score": {
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        "home_runs": 4
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      "review_required": false,
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      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4,
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    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
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    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
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    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
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        "season_quality_edge": -0.1115,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": -0.1115,
          "recent_quality_edge": 0.4,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "conflict",
          "blended_quality_edge": 0.0675
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 0.0,
        "reason": "season quality edge below action threshold"
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 3,
            "probability": 0.029379447419720307
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 3,
            "away_runs": 3,
            "probability": 0.02921102053257207
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 4,
            "probability": 0.028088712609140042
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 3,
            "away_runs": 4,
            "probability": 0.027927685263690945
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 2,
            "probability": 0.02576768444548592
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        ],
        "home_distribution": {
          "0": 0.06159746368670268,
          "1": 0.10060862041384751,
          "2": 0.13980275632271397,
          "3": 0.1652739666953861,
          "4": 0.16622691456333566,
          "5": 0.14223497914395128,
          "6": 0.10354274149621279,
          "7": 0.06412702349505589,
          "8": 0.033788637649126305,
          "9": 0.015146366354492357,
          "10": 0.0057763620940203845,
          "11": 0.0018741680851551965
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        "away_distribution": {
          "0": 0.07030683300355559,
          "1": 0.11400549948438553,
          "2": 0.1550151160128039,
          "3": 0.17674302321557062,
          "4": 0.16897812657430816,
          "5": 0.13546861293771167,
          "6": 0.09106822231109299,
          "7": 0.05133517132429895,
          "8": 0.02426515971467442,
          "9": 0.009617701067058034,
          "10": 0.003196534354540129
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 1.75,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.234862132692605,
      "home_runs": 5.508212066451755,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260912_CHW@STL

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickSTL

Published scoreCHW 3 - 4 STL

Final confidence59.1%

Calibrationraw 67.2% → blended 61.1%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.0% · weight 50.0% · n=229

H2H base featurehome net 4.0 · absolute 4.0 · n=1

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.037

Simulation variance1.85

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.622814655927683-4.682492709043651	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	3-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	3-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	3-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	3-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	3-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "STL",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": 0.18159,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.590795,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.590795,
    "away_win_probability": 0.409205
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.18159,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "STL wins 4-3",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "CHW 3 - 4 STL",
    "confidence": 0.5907952999999999,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.6725,
    "sample_size": 229,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5502,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.61135,
    "published_confidence": 0.590795,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 1,
    "sample_weight": 0.0167,
    "home_net_margin": 4.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 4.0,
    "home_average_margin": 4.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0333,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0333,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.3176,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.484,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.037
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.027928944858143016
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.027168213788814136
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.026443181342905978
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.025722919631565984
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.025305519434942955
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04669114737357224,
      "1": 0.07526134283976403,
      "2": 0.10692436129844282,
      "3": 0.13389015729677436,
      "4": 0.14777056166751376,
      "5": 0.14374557404397018,
      "6": 0.12324472050720071,
      "7": 0.0931342565659159,
      "8": 0.062032297338705016,
      "9": 0.03641611096590143,
      "10": 0.018842414242789953,
      "11": 0.008593039658998007,
      "12": 0.0034540162004513667
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.08954237107363834,
      "1": 0.139501788164755,
      "2": 0.17894755927370418,
      "3": 0.18900208906956453,
      "4": 0.16436231527001516,
      "5": 0.11768814471770611,
      "6": 0.06938378749591735,
      "7": 0.0336804674553617,
      "8": 0.01346148706521941,
      "9": 0.004429990414118371
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.85,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "CHW 3 - 4 STL",
      "winner": "STL"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "CHW 3 - 4 STL",
      "winner": "STL"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0338,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.834,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "STL",
      "model_winner": "STL",
      "simulation_winner": "STL",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 3,
        "published_winner": "STL",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667,
        "draw_majority_team": "STL",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.037,
      "winner": "STL",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "STL",
    "display_confidence": 0.5908,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5674,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5908,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.037,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.484,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0338,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.6667,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.3333,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.3333,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 7,
        "median": 10,
        "max": 14,
        "range": 7
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
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      "config_hash": "sha256:f542511539f291f9f8af06cbdac9abb41ef927ee79bd9dfa8da0185765dd9140",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-11bc4bc2dfc7264a-registry-4c40ee6a3671",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-12T09:04:27.150731+00:00",
      "parameters": {
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        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.85,
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        "recent.window_games": 10,
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        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
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        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
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        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
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        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
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        "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
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        "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
        "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
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        "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
        "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
        "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
        "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
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  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
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    "changes": [
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        "old_value": 1.75,
        "new_value": 1.85,
        "risk_tier": "low",
        "evaluation_mode": "artifact_replay"
      }
    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
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    ],
    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-12T22:37:19.203259+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-12T23:15:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.606818,
      "confidence": 0.606818,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "total_runs": 7
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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          "created_at_utc": "2026-09-12T09:04:27.150731+00:00",
          "parameters": {
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            "confidence.base_cap": 0.58,
            "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
            "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
            "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
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            "score.variance_multiplier": 1.85,
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            "recent.window_games": 10,
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            "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
            "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
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            "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
            "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
            "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
            "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
            "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
            "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
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    "candidate_prediction": {
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        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
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        "away": {
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    },
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    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
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    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260912_CIN@MIL

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickMIL

Published scoreCIN 6 - 10 MIL

Final confidence54.0%

Calibrationraw 92.0% → blended 74.8%

Empirical signalhit rate 57.6% · weight 50.0% · n=125

H2H base featurehome net 12.0 · absolute 12.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 2.0382

Simulation variance1.85

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.9974696840822146-5.551311165286171	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-6	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	6-9	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	6-10	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	6-10	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	6-10	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	6-10	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
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  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIL",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 10,
    "confidence": 0.08,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.54,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.54,
    "away_win_probability": 0.46
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.08,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIL wins 10-6 (Extra Innings - 12)",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 10
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 10,
    "predicted_score_text": "CIN 6 - 10 MIL",
    "confidence": 0.54,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.92,
    "sample_size": 125,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.576,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.748,
    "published_confidence": 0.54,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 12.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 12.0,
    "home_average_margin": 2.4,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0692,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0692,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 20.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -5.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
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      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 2.4916,
    "recent_quality_edge": 1.196,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 2.0382
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 9,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.01208794515854878
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      {
        "home_runs": 10,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.011868997278945009
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      {
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    ],
    "home_distribution": {
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      "12": 0.07751930310818321,
      "13": 0.06380162779134757,
      "14": 0.049511616813534075,
      "15": 0.036227295033016374,
      "16": 0.024992986662574886,
      "17": 0.01625750352752913,
      "18": 0.009971098498792198,
      "19": 0.0057661456195935755,
      "20": 0.0031439936161368138,
      "21": 0.0016163341734763297
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.02485588462127266,
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      "2": 0.06107805364192307,
      "3": 0.08352653854334653,
      "4": 0.1042888761375214,
      "5": 0.11888462686840287,
      "6": 0.12373359154525766,
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    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 10,
      "score_text": "CIN 6 - 10 MIL",
      "winner": "MIL"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 10,
      "score_text": "CIN 6 - 10 MIL",
      "winner": "MIL"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0567,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 1.126,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
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      "home_runs": 10,
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      "simulation_winner": "MIL",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
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        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5,
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 4,
      "simulation_margin": 4,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
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      "simulation_score": {
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        "home_runs": 10,
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    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
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    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
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    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
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        "range": 5
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    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
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          "run_differential_per_game": 1.2972972972972974,
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        },
        "away": {
          "team": "CIN",
          "games": 147,
          "wins": 69,
          "losses": 78,
          "win_pct": 0.46938775510204084,
          "runs_scored": 611,
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          "run_differential_per_game": -0.9659863945578231,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 2.2633,
        "win_pct_edge": 0.1522,
        "quality_edge": 2.0382,
        "season_quality_edge": 2.4916,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
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          "recent_quality_edge": 1.196,
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          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": 2.0382
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 3.2611,
        "reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
          "adjustment": 3.2611,
          "cap": 4.0,
          "scale": 1.6,
          "quality_edge": 2.0382,
          "season_quality_edge": 2.4916,
          "recent_alignment": "aligned",
          "large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": true,
          "method": "supported_large_edge_up_to_four_runs"
        },
        "adjusted_score": {
          "away_runs": 1.479,
          "home_runs": 12.0,
          "home_win_probability": 0.92
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      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
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        "home_distribution": {
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        "away_distribution": {
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        "variance_multiplier": 1.75,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.9974696840822146,
      "home_runs": 5.551311165286171,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 9,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 10,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 10,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 10,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 10,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260912_CLE@MIN

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickCLE

Published scoreCLE 6 - 4 MIN

Final confidence54.1%

Calibrationraw 54.6% → blended 55.0%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.5% · weight 50.0% · n=366

H2H base featurehome net -9.0 · absolute 9.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.1794

Simulation variance1.85

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	5.288544170994121-3.0127152108345348	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-3	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	6-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	6-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	6-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	6-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	6-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "CLE",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": -0.082336,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.541168,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.458832,
    "away_win_probability": 0.541168
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.082336,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "CLE wins 6-4",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "CLE 6 - 4 MIN",
    "confidence": 0.54116805,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.54569,
    "sample_size": 366,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5546,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.550145,
    "published_confidence": 0.541168,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -9.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 9.0,
    "home_average_margin": -1.8,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0519,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0519,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -9.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.3492,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.136,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.1794
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.01939845187970958
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.01903002947097228
      },
      {
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        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.01861877171910503
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        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.01826515727775584
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        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.018087341242166415
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    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04008033394786587,
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      "3": 0.1204388195910175,
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      "5": 0.14052016059603142,
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      "11": 0.013837220956150547,
      "12": 0.006268418895623424,
      "13": 0.0025290081047744735
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.03705649747630836,
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      "2": 0.08748934144213327,
      "3": 0.11381197524749294,
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      "5": 0.1380474644878639,
      "6": 0.12871705501507402,
      "7": 0.10740768862732722,
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      "13": 0.003524154640610289
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    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.85,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "CLE 6 - 4 MIN",
      "winner": "CLE"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "CLE 6 - 4 MIN",
      "winner": "CLE"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0668,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.066,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
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      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "CLE",
      "model_winner": "CLE",
      "simulation_winner": "CLE",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 6,
        "published_winner": "CLE",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667,
        "draw_majority_team": "CLE",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
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        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
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      }
    },
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      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 2,
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      "score_reviewed": {
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        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "CLE",
    "display_confidence": 0.5412,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5741,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5412,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.1794,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.136,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0668,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.6667,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.3333,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.3333,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 7,
        "median": 9,
        "max": 14,
        "range": 7
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    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
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      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-12T09:04:27.150731+00:00",
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        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
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        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
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        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
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        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
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  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
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    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
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    "changes": [
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        "old_value": 1.75,
        "new_value": 1.85,
        "risk_tier": "low",
        "evaluation_mode": "artifact_replay"
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    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
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    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-12T19:34:46.258515+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-12T20:10:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "away",
      "home_win_probability": 0.451567,
      "confidence": 0.548433,
      "predicted_score": {
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        "away_runs": 6,
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      },
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    },
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  },
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    },
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    },
    {
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    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
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      "home_runs": 4,
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    }
  ]
}

20260912_COL@DET

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickDET

Published scoreCOL 4 - 7 DET

Final confidence59.9%

Calibrationraw 88.7% → blended 71.7%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.8% · weight 50.0% · n=199

H2H base featurehome net 4.0 · absolute 4.0 · n=1

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 1.2081

Simulation variance1.85

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.8018027724041086-5.884321014126111	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-6	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-6	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-7	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-7	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-7	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-7	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "DET",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 7,
    "confidence": 0.1978,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.5989,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.5989,
    "away_win_probability": 0.4011
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.1978,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "DET wins 7-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 7
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 7,
    "predicted_score_text": "COL 4 - 7 DET",
    "confidence": 0.5989,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.886528,
    "sample_size": 199,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5477,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.717114,
    "published_confidence": 0.5989,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 1,
    "sample_weight": 0.0167,
    "home_net_margin": 4.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 4.0,
    "home_average_margin": 4.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0333,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0333,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 1.6088,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.464,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 1.2081
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.019053025008002624
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.019038475939250676
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 7,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.019026391609159653
      },
      {
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        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.019011862877921077
      },
      {
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        "probability": 0.017553430978819274
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    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.02045109470955263,
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        "confidence_floor": 0.505,
        "score_gap": 2.9783,
        "calibration_sample_size": 199,
        "calibration_empirical_hit_rate": 0.5477,
        "calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.5438,
        "calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
        "season_quality_edge": 1.2081,
        "reasons": [
          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability"
        ],
        "score_coherence": {
          "policy": "probability_follows_published_score_v1",
          "published_score": {
            "away_runs": 4,
            "home_runs": 6
          },
          "margin": 2,
          "probability_before": 0.732018,
          "margin_implied_home_probability": 0.66048,
          "shrinkage_weight": 0.946083,
          "side_flipped": false,
          "applied": true,
          "probability_after": 0.696249,
          "aligned_pick_probability": 0.696249
        },
        "starter_experience": {
          "applied": true,
          "min_starter_games": 3,
          "per_starter_career_games": {
            "808825": 3,
            "685299": 21
          },
          "shrink_factor": 0.5125,
          "probability_before": 0.696249,
          "probability_after": 0.600578,
          "reason": "inexperienced starter (debut/thin history): confidence shrunk toward 0.5 by career-games factor; winner unchanged"
        }
      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
        "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
        "available": true,
        "sample_size": 1,
        "sample_weight": 0.0167,
        "home_net_margin": 4.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 4.0,
        "home_average_margin": 4.0,
        "home_run_delta": 0.0333,
        "away_run_delta": -0.0333,
        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": 4.0
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        ],
        "adaptive_parameters": {
          "h2h.history_limit": 5,
          "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
          "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
          "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
        }
      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "home": {
          "team": "DET",
          "games": 147,
          "wins": 68,
          "losses": 79,
          "win_pct": 0.46258503401360546,
          "runs_scored": 647,
          "runs_allowed": 588,
          "run_differential": 59,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.4013605442176871,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "COL",
          "games": 147,
          "wins": 55,
          "losses": 92,
          "win_pct": 0.3741496598639456,
          "runs_scored": 688,
          "runs_allowed": 846,
          "run_differential": -158,
          "run_differential_per_game": -1.0748299319727892,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 1.4762,
        "win_pct_edge": 0.0884,
        "quality_edge": 1.2081,
        "season_quality_edge": 1.6088,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": 1.6088,
          "recent_quality_edge": 0.464,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": 1.2081
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 0.5074,
        "reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
          "adjustment": 0.5074,
          "cap": 1.4,
          "scale": 0.42,
          "quality_edge": 1.2081,
          "season_quality_edge": 1.6088,
          "recent_alignment": "aligned",
          "large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": false,
          "method": "standard_bounded_season_recent_adjustment"
        },
        "adjusted_score": {
          "away_runs": 2.751,
          "home_runs": 6.687,
          "home_win_probability": 0.8345
        }
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
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            "away_runs": 4,
            "probability": 0.019977703683064868
          },
          {
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            "away_runs": 3,
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          {
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          {
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        ],
        "home_distribution": {
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          "3": 0.07097249837779185,
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          "5": 0.10995078675893671,
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          "8": 0.10946409199527302,
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          "10": 0.07024162464734036,
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          "13": 0.018641884699375024,
          "14": 0.010043794808214115,
          "15": 0.00495481345023159
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        "away_distribution": {
          "0": 0.062442163754612784,
          "1": 0.10191631459714057,
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          "3": 0.16647928162713038,
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          "5": 0.14166305634995105,
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          "7": 0.06279614061558988,
          "8": 0.032738863607541996,
          "9": 0.014500708789072309,
          "10": 0.005456445780948159,
          "11": 0.001744317107745188
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 1.75,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.8018027724041086,
      "home_runs": 5.884321014126111,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260912_HOU@TB

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickTB

Published scoreHOU 4 - 5 TB

Final confidence53.2%

Calibrationraw 46.7% → blended 51.4%

Empirical signalhit rate 56.0% · weight 50.0% · n=546

H2H base featurehome net 0.0 · absolute 0.0 · n=4

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.6145

Simulation variance1.85

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.843805920249509-4.709822669071942	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "TB",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.063096,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.531548,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.531548,
    "away_win_probability": 0.468452
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.063096,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "TB wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "HOU 4 - 5 TB",
    "confidence": 0.5315479624999999,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.466795,
    "sample_size": 546,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5604,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.513598,
    "published_confidence": 0.531548,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 4,
    "sample_weight": 0.05,
    "home_net_margin": 0.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 0.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.8162,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.24,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.6145
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.024123186067378302
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.022914088084304486
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02266017364824277
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.022459521435884765
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.022083852862229615
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.051603676197253666,
      "1": 0.08285745977708037,
      "2": 0.11635283948860817,
      "3": 0.1428949090671041,
      "4": 0.15347969409531906,
      "5": 0.14417152485434875,
      "6": 0.11844110684003867,
      "7": 0.08509809165912094,
      "8": 0.05347263471778216,
      "9": 0.02938581525914217,
      "10": 0.014123368903943589,
      "11": 0.005936538116696451,
      "12": 0.00218234102356163
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.055322771278611425,
      "1": 0.08857511930558833,
      "2": 0.12331833565939342,
      "3": 0.1492971967358341,
      "4": 0.15717509869674695,
      "5": 0.14388778263080435,
      "6": 0.11454395859199036,
      "7": 0.0792918491369276,
      "8": 0.04773017138042922,
      "9": 0.02498420480653115,
      "10": 0.011372243725866645,
      "11": 0.004501268051276489
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.85,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "HOU 4 - 5 TB",
      "winner": "TB"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "HOU 4 - 5 TB",
      "winner": "TB"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0225,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.24,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "TB",
      "model_winner": "TB",
      "simulation_winner": "TB",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 3,
        "published_winner": "TB",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667,
        "draw_majority_team": "TB",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.6145,
      "winner": "TB",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "TB",
    "display_confidence": 0.5315,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5853,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5315,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.6145,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.24,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0225,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.6667,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.3333,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 6,
        "median": 8,
        "max": 10,
        "range": 4
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-ed18fee8af33cf7e",
      "config_hash": "sha256:f542511539f291f9f8af06cbdac9abb41ef927ee79bd9dfa8da0185765dd9140",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-11bc4bc2dfc7264a-registry-4c40ee6a3671",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-12T09:04:27.150731+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.85,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
        "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
        "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
        "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
        "context.lineup_context_min": 0.8,
        "context.lineup_context_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
        "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
        "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
        "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
        "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
        "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
        "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
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    }
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    },
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    },
    {
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    },
    {
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  ]
}

20260912_KC@BOS

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickBOS

Published scoreKC 4 - 6 BOS

Final confidence53.0%

Calibrationraw 49.1% → blended 52.2%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.3% · weight 50.0% · n=378

H2H base featurehome net 8.0 · absolute 8.0 · n=4

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.8567

Simulation variance1.85

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.8132730421480967-5.264775771217941	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-6	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-6	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-6	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-6	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "BOS",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "confidence": 0.06,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.53,
    "away_win_probability": 0.47
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.06,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "BOS wins 6-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 6
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "predicted_score_text": "KC 4 - 6 BOS",
    "confidence": 0.53,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.491185,
    "sample_size": 378,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5529,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.522043,
    "published_confidence": 0.53,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 4,
    "sample_weight": 0.05,
    "home_net_margin": 8.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 8.0,
    "home_average_margin": 2.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.05,
    "away_run_delta": -0.05,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
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            "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
            "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
            "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
            "context.lineup_context_min": 0.8,
            "context.lineup_context_weight": 1.0,
            "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
            "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
            "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
            "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
            "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
            "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
            "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
            "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
            "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "diagnostics": {
      "confidence_calibration": {
        "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
        "applied": true,
        "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
        "raw_confidence": 0.491185,
        "sample_size": 378,
        "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5529,
        "empirical_weight": 0.5,
        "blended_confidence": 0.522043
      },
      "confidence_governor": {
        "applied": true,
        "policy": "align_to_calibrated_probability_v2",
        "raw_confidence": 0.522043,
        "final_confidence": 0.5524,
        "calibrated_pick_probability": 0.5524,
        "shrinkage_weight": 0.970455,
        "hard_maximum": 0.9,
        "confidence_floor": 0.505,
        "score_gap": 0.1,
        "calibration_sample_size": 378,
        "calibration_empirical_hit_rate": 0.5529,
        "calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.5505,
        "calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.8567,
        "reasons": [
          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability"
        ],
        "score_coherence": {
          "policy": "probability_follows_published_score_v1",
          "published_score": {
            "away_runs": 4,
            "home_runs": 5
          },
          "margin": 1,
          "probability_before": 0.552424,
          "margin_implied_home_probability": 0.581951,
          "shrinkage_weight": 0.970455,
          "side_flipped": false,
          "applied": false,
          "magnitude_pull_suppressed": true,
          "probability_after": 0.552424,
          "aligned_pick_probability": 0.552424
        },
        "starter_experience": {
          "applied": false,
          "min_starter_games": 12,
          "shrink_factor": 1.0
        }
      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
        "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
        "available": true,
        "sample_size": 4,
        "sample_weight": 0.05,
        "home_net_margin": 8.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 8.0,
        "home_average_margin": 2.0,
        "home_run_delta": 0.05,
        "away_run_delta": -0.05,
        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": -1.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 1.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 6.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 2.0
          }
        ],
        "adaptive_parameters": {
          "h2h.history_limit": 5,
          "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
          "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
          "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
        }
      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "home": {
          "team": "BOS",
          "games": 148,
          "wins": 80,
          "losses": 68,
          "win_pct": 0.5405405405405406,
          "runs_scored": 654,
          "runs_allowed": 573,
          "run_differential": 81,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.5472972972972973,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "KC",
          "games": 148,
          "wins": 66,
          "losses": 82,
          "win_pct": 0.44594594594594594,
          "runs_scored": 632,
          "runs_allowed": 719,
          "run_differential": -87,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.5878378378378378,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 1.1351,
        "win_pct_edge": 0.0946,
        "quality_edge": 0.8567,
        "season_quality_edge": 1.277,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": 1.277,
          "recent_quality_edge": 0.076,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": 0.8567
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 0.3598,
        "reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
          "adjustment": 0.3598,
          "cap": 1.4,
          "scale": 0.42,
          "quality_edge": 0.8567,
          "season_quality_edge": 1.277,
          "recent_alignment": "aligned",
          "large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": false,
          "method": "standard_bounded_season_recent_adjustment"
        },
        "adjusted_score": {
          "away_runs": 3.536,
          "home_runs": 4.185,
          "home_win_probability": 0.5552
        }
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 4,
            "probability": 0.025871281128501948
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 3,
            "probability": 0.024694531771941163
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 3,
            "away_runs": 4,
            "probability": 0.024365283328833958
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 5,
            "away_runs": 4,
            "probability": 0.023735644646170378
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 5,
            "probability": 0.02332954014561167
          }
        ],
        "home_distribution": {
          "0": 0.05233767756864239,
          "1": 0.08614915780747003,
          "2": 0.12252487039408401,
          "3": 0.15056848973837655,
          "4": 0.15987500225395168,
          "5": 0.1466775542524212,
          "6": 0.11627420607374445,
          "7": 0.07964155530177283,
          "8": 0.04713382764504519,
          "9": 0.024102512288029697,
          "10": 0.010649483459513071,
          "11": 0.00406566321694876
        },
        "away_distribution": {
          "0": 0.054625501670708086,
          "1": 0.08974272774073057,
          "2": 0.12690367445544362,
          "3": 0.15446149444123483,
          "4": 0.16182192815489063,
          "5": 0.14592362668776773,
          "6": 0.11326219186779717,
          "7": 0.07566855019449432,
          "8": 0.04351279373468012,
          "9": 0.021537219140777924,
          "10": 0.009175577123772264,
          "11": 0.0033647147877029124
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 1.75,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.8132730421480967,
      "home_runs": 5.264775771217941,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260912_LAA@WAS

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickLAA

Published scoreLAA 4 - 3 WAS

Final confidence50.6%

Calibrationraw 51.0% → blended 52.8%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.6% · weight 50.0% · n=430

H2H base featurehome net 1.0 · absolute 1.0 · n=1

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.2749

Simulation variance1.85

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.844709199232127-4.930302438505711	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-3	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-3	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-3	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-3	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-3	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "LAA",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "confidence": -0.011296,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.505648,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.494352,
    "away_win_probability": 0.505648
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.011296,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "LAA wins 4-3",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "predicted_score_text": "LAA 4 - 3 WAS",
    "confidence": 0.5056477825,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5101,
    "sample_size": 430,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5465,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.5283,
    "published_confidence": 0.505648,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 1,
    "sample_weight": 0.0167,
    "home_net_margin": 1.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 1.0,
    "home_average_margin": 1.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0083,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0083,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.6232,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.372,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.2749
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.029331098996152067
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02858584371133114
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.028090710483107573
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.027376971443030796
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02592148258101339
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.07244615760448497,
      "1": 0.11443320856548671,
      "2": 0.15298705472630406,
      "3": 0.17311040883879605,
      "4": 0.16578970930959505,
      "5": 0.1343871821848224,
      "6": 0.09219853391866979,
      "7": 0.05353725160143299,
      "8": 0.026312009621017676,
      "9": 0.010945052670961937,
      "10": 0.0038534309584283243
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.0693331534503768,
      "1": 0.10978972921583495,
      "2": 0.14788238541257537,
      "3": 0.1694357906777621,
      "4": 0.16513070417360554,
      "5": 0.13689402251198038,
      "6": 0.09653284595568369,
      "7": 0.057902819035545464,
      "8": 0.029543250647580146,
      "9": 0.012821853869944966,
      "10": 0.004733445049110887
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.85,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "LAA 4 - 3 WAS",
      "winner": "LAA"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "LAA 4 - 3 WAS",
      "winner": "LAA"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0347,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.022,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "winner": "LAA",
      "model_winner": "LAA",
      "simulation_winner": "LAA",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 6,
        "published_winner": "LAA",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5,
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.2749,
      "winner": "LAA",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "LAA",
    "display_confidence": 0.5056,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5493,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5056,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.2749,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.372,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0347,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.5,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.1667,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.6667,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 3,
        "median": 6,
        "max": 10,
        "range": 7
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-ed18fee8af33cf7e",
      "config_hash": "sha256:f542511539f291f9f8af06cbdac9abb41ef927ee79bd9dfa8da0185765dd9140",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-11bc4bc2dfc7264a-registry-4c40ee6a3671",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-12T09:04:27.150731+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.85,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
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  "score_evolution": [
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      "stage": "historical_ml",
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      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260912_LAD@MIA

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickLAD

Published scoreLAD 7 - 4 MIA

Final confidence60.0%

Calibrationraw 86.0% → blended 70.8%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.6% · weight 50.0% · n=117

H2H base featurehome net -3.0 · absolute 3.0 · n=4

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -1.1782

Simulation variance1.85

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	5.082823033560203-2.9173109966003663	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-3	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	7-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	7-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	7-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	7-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	7-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "LAD",
    "away_runs": 7,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": -0.2,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.6,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.4,
    "away_win_probability": 0.6
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.2,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "LAD wins 7-4",
    "away_runs": 7,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 7,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "LAD 7 - 4 MIA",
    "confidence": 0.6,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.85999,
    "sample_size": 117,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5556,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.707795,
    "published_confidence": 0.6,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
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            "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
            "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
            "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
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            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
            "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
            "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
            "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
            "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
            "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
            "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
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            "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
            "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
            "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
            "context.lineup_context_min": 0.8,
            "context.lineup_context_weight": 1.0,
            "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
            "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
            "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
            "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
            "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
            "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
            "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
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        }
      }
    },
    "diagnostics": {
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        "raw_confidence": 0.85999,
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        "calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
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          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability"
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        "score_coherence": {
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          "published_score": {
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        "starter_experience": {
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        "evidence": [
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            "home_margin": -4.0
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      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
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        "away": {
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        "run_differential_edge_per_game": -1.1566,
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        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
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        "margin_adjustment": -0.4948,
        "reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
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          "cap": 1.4,
          "scale": 0.42,
          "quality_edge": -1.1782,
          "season_quality_edge": -1.3452,
          "recent_alignment": "aligned",
          "large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": false,
          "method": "standard_bounded_season_recent_adjustment"
        },
        "adjusted_score": {
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          "home_runs": 1.695,
          "home_win_probability": 0.08
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      },
      "score_distribution": {
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        "home_distribution": {
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    "validity": {
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  "score_evolution": [
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    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260912_NYM@NYY

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickNYY

Published scoreNYM 5 - 7 NYY

Final confidence53.9%

Calibrationraw 53.9% → blended 54.5%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.0% · weight 50.0% · n=620

H2H base featurehome net 1.0 · absolute 1.0 · n=4

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.8824

Simulation variance1.85

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.268987366152122-4.91846927432116	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-6	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-7	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-7	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-7	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-7	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYY",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 7,
    "confidence": 0.07836,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.53918,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.53918,
    "away_win_probability": 0.46082
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.07836,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYY wins 7-5 (Extra Innings - 10)",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 7
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 7,
    "predicted_score_text": "NYM 5 - 7 NYY",
    "confidence": 0.53918,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.539146,
    "sample_size": 620,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.55,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.544573,
    "published_confidence": 0.53918,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 4,
    "sample_weight": 0.05,
    "home_net_margin": 1.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 1.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.25,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0062,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0062,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 1.3639,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.012,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.8824
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.018447355535286487
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.017867216869311794
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.017804941369413175
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.017245005561050245
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.01716349365640124
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.03273519545935881,
      "1": 0.05335386625176054,
      "2": 0.07836302993584919,
      "3": 0.1037172302638963,
      "4": 0.12370434896347127,
      "5": 0.13295766889156677,
      "6": 0.12877637122457514,
      "7": 0.11239664309627599,
      "8": 0.08840256470032629,
      "9": 0.0626571671512098,
      "10": 0.04001944056964128,
      "11": 0.023033802445421386,
      "12": 0.011946883501016256,
      "13": 0.005583904556648001,
      "14": 0.0023518829889828696
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.037825593900161186,
      "1": 0.06139968931845044,
      "2": 0.08908403495367617,
      "3": 0.11552789857393872,
      "4": 0.13391436175023452,
      "5": 0.13874608128344348,
      "6": 0.12848948367473276,
      "7": 0.10635740440254274,
      "8": 0.07869029332620153,
      "9": 0.05203887345741947,
      "10": 0.03076011087232894,
      "11": 0.016251789730965156,
      "12": 0.007674812618107923,
      "13": 0.0032395721377970893
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.85,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "score_text": "NYM 5 - 7 NYY",
      "winner": "NYY"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "score_text": "NYM 5 - 7 NYY",
      "winner": "NYY"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.014,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.012,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "winner": "NYY",
      "model_winner": "NYY",
      "simulation_winner": "NYY",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 4,
        "published_winner": "NYY",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.75,
        "draw_majority_team": "NYY",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 7
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 7
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.8824,
      "winner": "NYY",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 7,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "NYY",
    "display_confidence": 0.5392,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6207,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5392,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.8824,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.012,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.014,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.75,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.5,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.25,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 6,
        "median": 11,
        "max": 11,
        "range": 5
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-ed18fee8af33cf7e",
      "config_hash": "sha256:f542511539f291f9f8af06cbdac9abb41ef927ee79bd9dfa8da0185765dd9140",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-11bc4bc2dfc7264a-registry-4c40ee6a3671",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-12T09:04:27.150731+00:00",
      "parameters": {
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        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.85,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
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      "home_runs": 7,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260912_PHI@ATL

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickPHI

Published scorePHI 4 - 3 ATL

Final confidence50.5%

Calibrationraw 45.8% → blended 50.2%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.6% · weight 50.0% · n=430

H2H base featurehome net 2.0 · absolute 2.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.3651

Simulation variance1.85

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.7745893168687434-4.674722962200752	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-3	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-3	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-3	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-3	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-3	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "PHI",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "confidence": -0.01,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.505,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.495,
    "away_win_probability": 0.505
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.01,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "PHI wins 4-3",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "predicted_score_text": "PHI 4 - 3 ATL",
    "confidence": 0.505,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.458369,
    "sample_size": 430,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5465,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.502435,
    "published_confidence": 0.505,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 2.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 2.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.4,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0115,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0115,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.5574,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.008,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.3651
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03269274760285564
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.030284719901949527
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.029952930296156022
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02976917917880518
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.02958782904144647
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.08138513719343321,
      "1": 0.12762934495722902,
      "2": 0.16697802245458396,
      "3": 0.18225162911797801,
      "4": 0.16595366864693656,
      "5": 0.1260682222655397,
      "6": 0.07989649592878628,
      "7": 0.04224284592484178,
      "8": 0.01863296372448566,
      "9": 0.0068566825095470315,
      "10": 0.0021049872766385866
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.07835496050550522,
      "1": 0.12317914334113586,
      "2": 0.16234603325434863,
      "3": 0.17938247115306966,
      "4": 0.16616981723847934,
      "5": 0.12905002727662884,
      "6": 0.08402294082905962,
      "7": 0.04586395196508935,
      "8": 0.020988378554028353,
      "9": 0.008052303253080302,
      "10": 0.002589972629575009
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.85,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "PHI 4 - 3 ATL",
      "winner": "PHI"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "PHI 4 - 3 ATL",
      "winner": "PHI"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0123,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.078,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "winner": "PHI",
      "model_winner": "PHI",
      "simulation_winner": "PHI",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "PHI",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "PHI",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.3651,
      "winner": "PHI",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "PHI",
    "display_confidence": 0.505,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5644,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.505,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.3651,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.008,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0123,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.5,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 5,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 7,
        "range": 2
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
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    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
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        "recent.window_games": 10,
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        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
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        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
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        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
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        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
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        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
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        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
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        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
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        "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
        "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
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        "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
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        "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
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        "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
        "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
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        "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
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  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
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        "new_value": 1.85,
        "risk_tier": "low",
        "evaluation_mode": "artifact_replay"
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    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
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    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-12T22:37:14.512367+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-12T23:15:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "away",
      "home_win_probability": 0.493511,
      "confidence": 0.506489,
      "predicted_score": {
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        "total_runs": 6
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            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
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    },
    "candidate_prediction": {
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      "home_win_probability": 0.493328,
      "confidence": 0.506672,
      "predicted_score": {
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            "confidence.base_cap": 0.58,
            "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
            "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
            "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
            "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
            "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
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            "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
            "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
            "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
            "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
            "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
            "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
            "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
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            "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
            "simulation.allow_score": true,
            "player.model_weight": 0.5,
            "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
            "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
            "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
            "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
            "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
            "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
            "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
            "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
            "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
            "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
            "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
            "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
            "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
            "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
            "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
            "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
            "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
            "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
            "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
            "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
            "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
            "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
            "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
            "context.lineup_context_min": 0.8,
            "context.lineup_context_weight": 1.0,
            "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
            "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
            "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
            "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
            "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
            "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
            "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
            "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
            "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
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        }
      }
    },
    "diagnostics": {
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        "applied": true,
        "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
        "raw_confidence": 0.458369,
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        "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5465,
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      "confidence_governor": {
        "applied": true,
        "policy": "align_to_calibrated_probability_v2",
        "raw_confidence": 0.502435,
        "final_confidence": 0.5067,
        "calibrated_pick_probability": 0.5067,
        "shrinkage_weight": 0.973884,
        "hard_maximum": 0.9,
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        "calibration_sample_size": 430,
        "calibration_empirical_hit_rate": 0.5465,
        "calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.5446,
        "calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.3651,
        "reasons": [
          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability"
        ],
        "score_coherence": {
          "policy": "probability_follows_published_score_v1",
          "published_score": {
            "away_runs": 4,
            "home_runs": 3
          },
          "margin": -1,
          "probability_before": 0.493328,
          "margin_implied_home_probability": 0.418049,
          "shrinkage_weight": 0.973884,
          "side_flipped": false,
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          "magnitude_pull_suppressed": true,
          "probability_after": 0.493328,
          "aligned_pick_probability": 0.506672
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        "starter_experience": {
          "applied": false,
          "min_starter_games": 24,
          "shrink_factor": 1.0
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      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
        "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
        "available": true,
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        "home_net_margin": 2.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 2.0,
        "home_average_margin": 0.4,
        "home_run_delta": 0.0115,
        "away_run_delta": -0.0115,
        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": 1.0
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            "home_margin": -1.0
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            "home_margin": 1.0
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            "home_margin": -2.0
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      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
        "applied": false,
        "home": {
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          "games": 148,
          "wins": 87,
          "losses": 61,
          "win_pct": 0.5878378378378378,
          "runs_scored": 677,
          "runs_allowed": 566,
          "run_differential": 111,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.75,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "PHI",
          "games": 148,
          "wins": 82,
          "losses": 66,
          "win_pct": 0.5540540540540541,
          "runs_scored": 664,
          "runs_allowed": 628,
          "run_differential": 36,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.24324324324324326,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 0.5068,
        "win_pct_edge": 0.0338,
        "quality_edge": 0.3651,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.5574,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": 0.5574,
          "recent_quality_edge": 0.008,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": 0.3651
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 0.0,
        "reason": "season quality edge below action threshold"
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
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        "home_distribution": {
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        "away_distribution": {
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          "7": 0.043451488051939775,
          "8": 0.019015707676998523,
          "9": 0.006906832746034467
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 1.75,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.7745893168687434,
      "home_runs": 4.674722962200752,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260912_PIT@CHC

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickCHC

Published scorePIT 4 - 5 CHC

Final confidence53.0%

Calibrationraw 52.5% → blended 53.6%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.6% · weight 50.0% · n=430

H2H base featurehome net 26.0 · absolute 26.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.4382

Simulation variance1.85

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	5.022367509877458-4.063854306345057	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail, season_quality_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "CHC",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.06,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.53,
    "away_win_probability": 0.47
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.06,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "CHC wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "PIT 4 - 5 CHC",
    "confidence": 0.53,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.52508,
    "sample_size": 430,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5465,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.53579,
    "published_confidence": 0.53,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 26.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 26.0,
    "home_average_margin": 5.2,
    "home_run_delta": 0.15,
    "away_run_delta": -0.15,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 10.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 11.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.8378,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.304,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.4382
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.020394143254844607
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.019726669515074742
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.019434329875388238
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.01918343067513468
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.018798269577107986
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.036069324384310056,
      "1": 0.0586319366651356,
      "2": 0.085430979822188,
      "3": 0.11157873955379874,
      "4": 0.13062684293969187,
      "5": 0.13707817891955712,
      "6": 0.128940436943943,
      "7": 0.10871635042853003,
      "8": 0.0821647442916292,
      "9": 0.055662289664676956,
      "10": 0.033800376818076856,
      "11": 0.01839784403117225,
      "12": 0.008976297532575788,
      "13": 0.003925658004714503
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.047484732024658007,
      "1": 0.07649239670326455,
      "2": 0.10846847953324244,
      "3": 0.13539724969264633,
      "4": 0.14877745980863005,
      "5": 0.14390816737251177,
      "6": 0.12253347562533232,
      "7": 0.09184279005696803,
      "8": 0.06059773495034556,
      "9": 0.03519562813123774,
      "10": 0.017994594152183716,
      "11": 0.008098720261852398,
      "12": 0.0032085716871269303
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.85,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "PIT 4 - 5 CHC",
      "winner": "CHC"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "PIT 4 - 5 CHC",
      "winner": "CHC"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0204,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.094,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "CHC",
      "model_winner": "CHC",
      "simulation_winner": "CHC",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 1,
        "published_winner": "CHC",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "CHC",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.4382,
      "winner": "CHC",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "CHC",
    "display_confidence": 0.53,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5801,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.4382,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.304,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0204,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 9,
        "median": 9,
        "max": 9,
        "range": 0
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-ed18fee8af33cf7e",
      "config_hash": "sha256:f542511539f291f9f8af06cbdac9abb41ef927ee79bd9dfa8da0185765dd9140",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-11bc4bc2dfc7264a-registry-4c40ee6a3671",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-12T09:04:27.150731+00:00",
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      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail, season_quality_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260912_SD@SF

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickSD

Published scoreSD 5 - 4 SF

Final confidence50.5%

Calibrationraw 51.0% → blended 52.8%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.6% · weight 50.0% · n=430

H2H base featurehome net -8.0 · absolute 8.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.6323

Simulation variance1.85

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.405830143958976-4.973251099527946	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by opposing_starter_is_elite, starter_quality_favours_the_other_side, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "SD",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": -0.01,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.505,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.495,
    "away_win_probability": 0.505
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.01,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "SD wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "SD 5 - 4 SF",
    "confidence": 0.505,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5101,
    "sample_size": 430,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5465,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.5283,
    "published_confidence": 0.505,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -8.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 8.0,
    "home_average_margin": -1.6,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0462,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0462,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -7.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.807,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.308,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.6323
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.024060133301845605
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02274530911761823
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.022508978450413112
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.022471970592906173
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.022161793503559776
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.054370712782920765,
      "1": 0.08711022691374375,
      "2": 0.12152732894590323,
      "3": 0.14763164171678822,
      "4": 0.15616569381002046,
      "5": 0.1438442511992374,
      "6": 0.11537190764679155,
      "7": 0.08057648655514356,
      "8": 0.049002390686120105,
      "9": 0.025949374844138923,
      "10": 0.011965675465062909,
      "11": 0.004804500344100516,
      "12": 0.0016798090900285495
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.052178335227108644,
      "1": 0.08374221330451448,
      "2": 0.11743553658799706,
      "3": 0.14389825348097193,
      "4": 0.15406798199299374,
      "5": 0.14413523163285694,
      "6": 0.11782265139058713,
      "7": 0.0841566264228886,
      "8": 0.052522903805856246,
      "9": 0.02864244083520041,
      "10": 0.013648100303954374,
      "11": 0.005682445399665142,
      "12": 0.0020672796154051765
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.85,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "SD 5 - 4 SF",
      "winner": "SD"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "SD 5 - 4 SF",
      "winner": "SD"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0164,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.518,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "SD",
      "model_winner": "SD",
      "simulation_winner": "SD",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 4,
        "published_winner": "SD",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5,
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.6323,
      "winner": "SD",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "SD",
    "display_confidence": 0.505,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5711,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.505,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.6323,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.308,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0164,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.5,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.25,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.25,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 4,
        "median": 8,
        "max": 11,
        "range": 7
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-ed18fee8af33cf7e",
      "config_hash": "sha256:f542511539f291f9f8af06cbdac9abb41ef927ee79bd9dfa8da0185765dd9140",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-11bc4bc2dfc7264a-registry-4c40ee6a3671",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-12T09:04:27.150731+00:00",
      "parameters": {
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        "confidence.base_cap": 0.58,
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        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.85,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
        "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
        "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
        "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
        "context.lineup_context_min": 0.8,
        "context.lineup_context_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
        "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
        "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
        "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
        "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
        "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
        "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
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    }
  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
      "config_id": "candidate-11bc4bc2dfc7264a-registry-4c40ee6a3671",
      "config_hash": "sha256:4c40ee6a3671b3a7c2775a53d9c67b935e269d408c98251960ad257a5d502c6c",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-11bc4bc2dfc7264a",
      "parent_config_hash": "sha256:77b48e255ea4a5c12453f385020a95612bfd01fcf6d9ccc6baa8aeb6377b834b"
    },
    "changes": [
      {
        "parameter": "score.variance_multiplier",
        "old_value": 1.75,
        "new_value": 1.85,
        "risk_tier": "low",
        "evaluation_mode": "artifact_replay"
      }
    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
      "artifact_replay"
    ],
    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-12T19:37:03.437379+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-12T20:05:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "away",
      "home_win_probability": 0.496417,
      "confidence": 0.503583,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "total_runs": 8
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
          "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
          "config_id": "candidate-ed18fee8af33cf7e",
          "config_hash": "sha256:f542511539f291f9f8af06cbdac9abb41ef927ee79bd9dfa8da0185765dd9140",
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          "created_at_utc": "2026-09-12T09:04:27.150731+00:00",
          "parameters": {
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            "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
            "confidence.base_cap": 0.58,
            "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
            "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
            "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
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            "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
            "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
            "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
            "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
            "confidence.floor": 0.505,
            "score.variance_multiplier": 1.85,
            "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
            "recent.window_games": 10,
            "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
            "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
            "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
            "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
            "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
            "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
            "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
            "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
            "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
            "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
            "h2h.history_limit": 5,
            "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
            "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
            "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
            "simulation.allow_score": true,
            "player.model_weight": 0.5,
            "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
            "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
            "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
            "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
            "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
            "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
            "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
            "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
            "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
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            "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
            "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
            "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
            "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
            "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
            "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
            "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
            "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
            "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
            "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
            "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
            "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
            "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
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            "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
            "context.lineup_context_min": 0.8,
            "context.lineup_context_weight": 1.0,
            "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
            "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
            "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
            "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
            "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
            "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
            "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
            "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
            "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
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        }
      }
    },
    "candidate_prediction": {
      "predicted_winner": "away",
      "home_win_probability": 0.496316,
      "confidence": 0.503684,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "total_runs": 8
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
          "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
          "config_id": "candidate-11bc4bc2dfc7264a-registry-4c40ee6a3671",
          "config_hash": "sha256:4c40ee6a3671b3a7c2775a53d9c67b935e269d408c98251960ad257a5d502c6c",
          "parent_config_id": "candidate-11bc4bc2dfc7264a",
          "created_at_utc": "2026-09-09T13:40:22.642803+00:00",
          "parameters": {
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            "confidence.base_cap": 0.58,
            "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
            "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
            "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
            "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
            "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
            "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
            "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
            "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
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            "score.variance_multiplier": 1.75,
            "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
            "recent.window_games": 10,
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            "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
            "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
            "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
            "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
            "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
            "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
            "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
            "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
            "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
            "h2h.history_limit": 5,
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            "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
            "simulation.allow_score": true,
            "player.model_weight": 0.5,
            "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
            "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
            "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
            "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
            "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
            "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
            "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
            "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
            "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
            "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
            "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
            "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
            "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
            "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
            "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
            "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
            "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
            "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
            "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
            "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
            "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
            "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
            "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
            "context.lineup_context_min": 0.8,
            "context.lineup_context_weight": 1.0,
            "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
            "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
            "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
            "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
            "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
            "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
            "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
            "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
            "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
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        }
      }
    },
    "diagnostics": {
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        "applied": true,
        "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
        "raw_confidence": 0.5101,
        "sample_size": 430,
        "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5465,
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      "confidence_governor": {
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        "policy": "align_to_calibrated_probability_v2",
        "raw_confidence": 0.5283,
        "final_confidence": 0.508,
        "calibrated_pick_probability": 0.508,
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        "hard_maximum": 0.9,
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        "score_gap": 0.1,
        "calibration_sample_size": 430,
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        "calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.5446,
        "calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.6323,
        "reasons": [
          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability"
        ],
        "score_coherence": {
          "policy": "probability_follows_published_score_v1",
          "published_score": {
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            "home_runs": 4
          },
          "margin": -1,
          "probability_before": 0.491963,
          "margin_implied_home_probability": 0.418049,
          "shrinkage_weight": 0.973884,
          "side_flipped": false,
          "applied": false,
          "magnitude_pull_suppressed": true,
          "probability_after": 0.491963,
          "aligned_pick_probability": 0.508037
        },
        "starter_experience": {
          "applied": true,
          "min_starter_games": 2,
          "per_starter_career_games": {
            "702885": 2,
            "650633": 29
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          "shrink_factor": 0.4583,
          "probability_before": 0.491963,
          "probability_after": 0.496316,
          "reason": "inexperienced starter (debut/thin history): confidence shrunk toward 0.5 by career-games factor; winner unchanged"
        }
      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
        "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
        "available": true,
        "sample_size": 5,
        "sample_weight": 0.0577,
        "home_net_margin": -8.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 8.0,
        "home_average_margin": -1.6,
        "home_run_delta": -0.0462,
        "away_run_delta": 0.0462,
        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": -2.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": -1.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": -1.0
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          {
            "home_margin": -7.0
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          {
            "home_margin": 3.0
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        ],
        "adaptive_parameters": {
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          "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
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      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "home": {
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          "games": 148,
          "wins": 62,
          "losses": 86,
          "win_pct": 0.4189189189189189,
          "runs_scored": 622,
          "runs_allowed": 696,
          "run_differential": -74,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.5,
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        },
        "away": {
          "team": "SD",
          "games": 147,
          "wins": 79,
          "losses": 68,
          "win_pct": 0.5374149659863946,
          "runs_scored": 626,
          "runs_allowed": 607,
          "run_differential": 19,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.1292517006802721,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": -0.6293,
        "win_pct_edge": -0.1185,
        "quality_edge": -0.6323,
        "season_quality_edge": -0.807,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
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          "recent_quality_edge": -0.308,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": -0.6323
        },
        "margin_adjustment": -0.2656,
        "reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
          "adjustment": -0.2656,
          "cap": 1.4,
          "scale": 0.42,
          "quality_edge": -0.6323,
          "season_quality_edge": -0.807,
          "recent_alignment": "aligned",
          "large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": false,
          "method": "standard_bounded_season_recent_adjustment"
        },
        "adjusted_score": {
          "away_runs": 4.098,
          "home_runs": 3.814,
          "home_win_probability": 0.4759
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      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
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        ],
        "home_distribution": {
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          "7": 0.07947281392064155,
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          "9": 0.023989335862530083,
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        "away_distribution": {
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          "4": 0.15787777514861936,
          "5": 0.14713802127339548,
          "6": 0.11889981780030795,
          "7": 0.08330859899865437,
          "8": 0.05061168972797047,
          "9": 0.026660249349934398,
          "10": 0.012176709385811994,
          "11": 0.004822231318711442
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 1.75,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.405830143958976,
      "home_runs": 4.973251099527946,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by opposing_starter_is_elite, starter_quality_favours_the_other_side, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260912_SEA@OAK

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickSEA

Published scoreSEA 6 - 5 OAK

Final confidence52.5%

Calibrationraw 56.2% → blended 55.8%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.4% · weight 50.0% · n=639

H2H base featurehome net 7.0 · absolute 7.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.4152

Simulation variance1.85

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	5.542555763145537-4.584494251729947	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	6-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	6-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	6-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	6-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	6-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	6-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "SEA",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": -0.049948,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.524974,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.475026,
    "away_win_probability": 0.524974
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.049948,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "SEA wins 6-5",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "SEA 6 - 5 OAK",
    "confidence": 0.524973935,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.562242,
    "sample_size": 639,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.554,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.558121,
    "published_confidence": 0.524974,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 7.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 7.0,
    "home_average_margin": 1.4,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0404,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0404,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.8412,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.376,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.4152
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.01753918460570821
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.017137125593205706
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.016951413224470278
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.01656282797294529
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.016347029257228918
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.03297267955111452,
      "1": 0.05373051361018157,
      "2": 0.07887033662720105,
      "3": 0.10428752223090881,
      "4": 0.12421583301900985,
      "5": 0.13327463920141988,
      "6": 0.12880835296700105,
      "7": 0.11214153358061411,
      "8": 0.08794576016774454,
      "9": 0.06212827214539121,
      "10": 0.03953571490386794,
      "11": 0.022662920189535016,
      "12": 0.011702215585343071,
      "13": 0.005443099487400116,
      "14": 0.0022806067332673497
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.03176244370763886,
      "1": 0.051809672446337884,
      "2": 0.07627708947864976,
      "3": 0.10135932466927357,
      "4": 0.12156810074912627,
      "5": 0.13160181645062258,
      "6": 0.12858504585636973,
      "7": 0.1133979942271499,
      "8": 0.09026234455385547,
      "9": 0.06484764004345074,
      "10": 0.042050200392294956,
      "11": 0.024610945137217996,
      "12": 0.013000942670617292,
      "13": 0.006198801401680984,
      "14": 0.0026676382157140533
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.85,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "SEA 6 - 5 OAK",
      "winner": "SEA"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "SEA 6 - 5 OAK",
      "winner": "SEA"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0215,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.586,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "SEA",
      "model_winner": "SEA",
      "simulation_winner": "SEA",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "SEA",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5,
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.4152,
      "winner": "SEA",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "SEA",
    "display_confidence": 0.525,
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          "7": 0.1139037754347591,
          "8": 0.08809576200751132,
          "9": 0.061010567280899944,
          "10": 0.037834522684257306,
          "11": 0.02100896246315364,
          "12": 0.010446098110720586,
          "13": 0.004650897254255383
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        "away_distribution": {
          "0": 0.029980624193966462,
          "1": 0.050289844294739344,
          "2": 0.07569419966545103,
          "3": 0.10223217532577646,
          "4": 0.12389543147914465,
          "5": 0.13473042294038062,
          "6": 0.13146760272517502,
          "7": 0.11511038447381124,
          "8": 0.09043841767449975,
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          "12": 0.011660942634208025,
          "13": 0.0053294888738106335,
          "14": 0.0021856476533826164
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 1.75,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 5.542555763145537,
      "home_runs": 4.584494251729947,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260912_TEX@ARI

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickARI

Published scoreTEX 4 - 5 ARI

Final confidence55.9%

Calibrationraw 61.6% → blended 58.5%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.4% · weight 50.0% · n=379

H2H base featurehome net 5.0 · absolute 5.0 · n=4

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.3677

Simulation variance1.85

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.170590076542663-4.6950057713246265	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "ARI",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.117886,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.558943,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.558943,
    "away_win_probability": 0.441057
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.117886,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "ARI wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "TEX 4 - 5 ARI",
    "confidence": 0.558942995,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.615883,
    "sample_size": 379,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5541,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.584991,
    "published_confidence": 0.558943,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 4,
    "sample_weight": 0.05,
    "home_net_margin": 5.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 5.0,
    "home_average_margin": 1.25,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0312,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0312,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 8.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.4493,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.216,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.3677
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.022509061214167174
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.022030792512203686
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.021902807990627913
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.0214374208539827
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.020492260298540694
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.03976040059345447,
      "1": 0.06444023790685575,
      "2": 0.09306121930653795,
      "3": 0.1197527681960092,
      "4": 0.13731171888879767,
      "5": 0.14029263287638766,
      "6": 0.12772248133836328,
      "7": 0.10361080508587542,
      "8": 0.07489416254593917,
      "9": 0.04823875706391095,
      "10": 0.02768531497401748,
      "11": 0.01415820016834928,
      "12": 0.006451665566817519,
      "13": 0.002619635488684202
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05967389984153099,
      "1": 0.09521291959296325,
      "2": 0.13119664186726296,
      "3": 0.15612229624292928,
      "4": 0.1604436437799267,
      "5": 0.14239524191597544,
      "6": 0.10913996594007887,
      "7": 0.07224162809317429,
      "8": 0.04129586914522012,
      "9": 0.020386424916602953,
      "10": 0.008691423419434812,
      "11": 0.0032000452449002076
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.85,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "TEX 4 - 5 ARI",
      "winner": "ARI"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "TEX 4 - 5 ARI",
      "winner": "ARI"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0711,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.216,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "ARI",
      "model_winner": "ARI",
      "simulation_winner": "ARI",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "ARI",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "ARI",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.3677,
      "winner": "ARI",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "ARI",
    "display_confidence": 0.5589,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6332,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5589,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.3677,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.216,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0711,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.5,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 5,
        "median": 9,
        "max": 9,
        "range": 4
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
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      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-12T09:04:27.150731+00:00",
      "parameters": {
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        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.85,
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        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
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        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
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        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
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        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
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        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
        "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
        "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
        "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
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        "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
        "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
        "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
        "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
        "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
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        "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
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  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
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    "changes": [
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        "old_value": 1.75,
        "new_value": 1.85,
        "risk_tier": "low",
        "evaluation_mode": "artifact_replay"
      }
    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
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    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-12T23:36:34.948057+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-13T00:10:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.581582,
      "confidence": 0.581582,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "total_runs": 8
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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          "created_at_utc": "2026-09-12T09:04:27.150731+00:00",
          "parameters": {
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            "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
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            "score.variance_multiplier": 1.85,
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            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
            "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
            "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
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            "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
            "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
            "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
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            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
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        }
      }
    },
    "candidate_prediction": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.583173,
      "confidence": 0.583173,
      "predicted_score": {
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        "total_runs": 8
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
          "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
          "config_id": "candidate-11bc4bc2dfc7264a-registry-4c40ee6a3671",
          "config_hash": "sha256:4c40ee6a3671b3a7c2775a53d9c67b935e269d408c98251960ad257a5d502c6c",
          "parent_config_id": "candidate-11bc4bc2dfc7264a",
          "created_at_utc": "2026-09-09T13:40:22.642803+00:00",
          "parameters": {
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            "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
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            "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
            "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
            "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
            "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
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            "score.variance_multiplier": 1.75,
            "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
            "recent.window_games": 10,
            "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
            "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
            "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
            "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
            "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
            "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
            "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
            "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
            "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
            "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
            "h2h.history_limit": 5,
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            "simulation.allow_score": true,
            "player.model_weight": 0.5,
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            "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
            "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
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            "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
            "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
            "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
            "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
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            "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
            "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
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            "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
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            "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
            "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
            "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
            "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
            "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
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      }
    },
    "diagnostics": {
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        "raw_confidence": 0.615883,
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      },
      "confidence_governor": {
        "applied": true,
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        "raw_confidence": 0.584991,
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        "calibrated_pick_probability": 0.5844,
        "shrinkage_weight": 0.970529,
        "hard_maximum": 0.9,
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        "score_gap": 1.0,
        "calibration_sample_size": 379,
        "calibration_empirical_hit_rate": 0.5541,
        "calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.5516,
        "calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.3677,
        "reasons": [
          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability"
        ],
        "score_coherence": {
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          "published_score": {
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          },
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        "starter_experience": {
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          "min_starter_games": 26,
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      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
        "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
        "available": true,
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        "sample_weight": 0.05,
        "home_net_margin": 5.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 5.0,
        "home_average_margin": 1.25,
        "home_run_delta": 0.0312,
        "away_run_delta": -0.0312,
        "evidence": [
          {
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          {
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          {
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        ],
        "adaptive_parameters": {
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      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
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        "home": {
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          "losses": 69,
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          "run_differential": 7,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.0472972972972973,
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        "away": {
          "team": "TEX",
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          "losses": 76,
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          "runs_allowed": 660,
          "run_differential": -49,
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        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 0.3784,
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        "recent_quality_blend": {
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          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
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        "home_distribution": {
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        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
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        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.170590076542663,
      "home_runs": 4.6950057713246265,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

Every reviewed game

Date	Game	Pick	Final confidence	Raw confidence	Empirical hit rate	Empirical weight	Pred A-H	Actual A-H	Result	Largest recorded movement	Pipeline	Roadmap signals
20260912	20260912_BAL@TOR	TOR	53.0%	55.6%	55.8%	50.0%	3.0-4.0	3-7	hit	Enhanced Prediction (-2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.556469, "sample_size": 267, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5581, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.557284, "published_confidence": 0.53, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -13.0, "absolute_net_margin": 13.0, "home_average_margin": -2.6, "home_run_delta": -0.075, "away_run_delta": 0.075, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": -10.0 }, { "home_margin": -4.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.1115, "recent_quality_edge": 0.4, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.0675 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.02814368161577459 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.02799103666295569 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.026972662100078943 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02682636849180564 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.02485948017581114 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.06361886010728458, "1": 0.10119075165981788, "2": 0.1381332053457018, "3": 0.16182949781812683, "4": 0.16271201090103263, "5": 0.140405418229331, "6": 0.10398015289843637, "7": 0.06608750633705607, "8": 0.03604878299420232, "9": 0.016875792591799627, "10": 0.00678016214345879, "11": 0.0023378589737520702 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.07231973217162954, "1": 0.11424510509163316, "2": 0.15278208435965787, "3": 0.17296622087039784, "4": 0.1657693365764172, "5": 0.1344934514732819, "6": 0.09237450309669457, "7": 0.05371024437209634, "8": 0.02643724393288973, "9": 0.011016135391846458, "10": 0.0038859426634553175 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.85, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "BAL 3 - 4 TOR", "winner": "TOR" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "BAL 3 - 4 TOR", "winner": "TOR" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.1431, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.33, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "TOR", "model_winner": "TOR", "simulation_winner": "TOR", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "TOR", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "TOR", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.0675, "winner": "TOR", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260912	20260912_CHW@STL	STL	59.1%	67.2%	55.0%	50.0%	3.0-4.0	6-5	miss	Variance Applied (-0.0597)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.6725, "sample_size": 229, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5502, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.61135, "published_confidence": 0.590795, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 1, "sample_weight": 0.0167, "home_net_margin": 4.0, "absolute_net_margin": 4.0, "home_average_margin": 4.0, "home_run_delta": 0.0333, "away_run_delta": -0.0333, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 4.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.3176, "recent_quality_edge": 0.484, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": -0.037 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.027928944858143016 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.027168213788814136 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.026443181342905978 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.025722919631565984 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.025305519434942955 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.04669114737357224, "1": 0.07526134283976403, "2": 0.10692436129844282, "3": 0.13389015729677436, "4": 0.14777056166751376, "5": 0.14374557404397018, "6": 0.12324472050720071, "7": 0.0931342565659159, "8": 0.062032297338705016, "9": 0.03641611096590143, "10": 0.018842414242789953, "11": 0.008593039658998007, "12": 0.0034540162004513667 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.08954237107363834, "1": 0.139501788164755, "2": 0.17894755927370418, "3": 0.18900208906956453, "4": 0.16436231527001516, "5": 0.11768814471770611, "6": 0.06938378749591735, "7": 0.0336804674553617, "8": 0.01346148706521941, "9": 0.004429990414118371 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.85, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "CHW 3 - 4 STL", "winner": "STL" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "CHW 3 - 4 STL", "winner": "STL" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": true, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0338, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.834, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "STL", "model_winner": "STL", "simulation_winner": "STL", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "STL", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667, "draw_majority_team": "STL", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": true, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": -0.037, "winner": "STL", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260912	20260912_CIN@MIL	MIL	54.0%	92.0%	57.6%	50.0%	6.0-10.0	9-13	hit	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.92, "sample_size": 125, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.576, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.748, "published_confidence": 0.54, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 12.0, "absolute_net_margin": 12.0, "home_average_margin": 2.4, "home_run_delta": 0.0692, "away_run_delta": -0.0692, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 20.0 }, { "home_margin": -4.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": 3.0 }, { "home_margin": -5.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 2.4916, "recent_quality_edge": 1.196, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 2.0382 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 9, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.01208794515854878 }, { "home_runs": 10, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.011868997278945009 }, { "home_runs": 9, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.011614233708347143 }, { "home_runs": 8, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.011607652063304207 }, { "home_runs": 9, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.01148652360663459 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.008160488736207517, "1": 0.01360494118653776, "2": 0.02138605196358424, "3": 0.03169698956011475, "4": 0.04429542428174206, "5": 0.05836509073836732, "6": 0.07251050239885164, "7": 0.08493801618886568, "8": 0.09381164741394023, "9": 0.09769331842377992, "10": 0.09592380800329166, "11": 0.08880581626053316, "12": 0.07751930310818321, "13": 0.06380162779134757, "14": 0.049511616813534075, "15": 0.036227295033016374, "16": 0.024992986662574886, "17": 0.01625750352752913, "18": 0.009971098498792198, "19": 0.0057661456195935755, "20": 0.0031439936161368138, "21": 0.0016163341734763297 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.02485588462127266, "1": 0.04077745362542798, "2": 0.06107805364192307, "3": 0.08352653854334653, "4": 0.1042888761375214, "5": 0.11888462686840287, "6": 0.12373359154525766, "7": 0.11757737163566971, "8": 0.10200796516746648, "9": 0.08080135238007473, "10": 0.05843558326926079, "11": 0.03858427508850934, "12": 0.02326041803660356, "13": 0.012802621154014617, "14": 0.006433606306435078, "15": 0.002951781978813315 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.85, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 10, "score_text": "CIN 6 - 10 MIL", "winner": "MIL" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 10, "score_text": "CIN 6 - 10 MIL", "winner": "MIL" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": true, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0567, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 1.126, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 10, "winner": "MIL", "model_winner": "MIL", "simulation_winner": "MIL", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "MIL", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5, "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": true, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 4, "simulation_margin": 4, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 10 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 10 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 4, "final_margin": 4, "winner_quality_edge": 2.0382, "winner": "MIL", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 10, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260912	20260912_CLE@MIN	CLE	54.1%	54.6%	55.5%	50.0%	6.0-4.0	3-4	miss	Enhanced Prediction (-1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.54569, "sample_size": 366, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5546, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.550145, "published_confidence": 0.541168, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -9.0, "absolute_net_margin": 9.0, "home_average_margin": -1.8, "home_run_delta": -0.0519, "away_run_delta": 0.0519, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": 4.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": -9.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.3492, "recent_quality_edge": 0.136, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": -0.1794 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01939845187970958 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01903002947097228 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.01861877171910503 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.01826515727775584 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.018087341242166415 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.04008033394786587, "1": 0.0649421470682584, "2": 0.09371411951899622, "3": 0.1204388195910175, "4": 0.137851350921735, "5": 0.14052016059603142, "6": 0.12757022553428932, "7": 0.10314378967689793, "8": 0.07427111087348773, "9": 0.04762991760512913, "10": 0.027203376709743144, "11": 0.013837220956150547, "12": 0.006268418895623424, "13": 0.0025290081047744735 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.03705649747630836, "1": 0.06018855956878148, "2": 0.08748934144213327, "3": 0.11381197524749294, "4": 0.13249893566966833, "5": 0.1380474644878639, "6": 0.12871705501507402, "7": 0.10740768862732722, "8": 0.08020958375966401, "9": 0.05360542827349914, "10": 0.03206143033156638, "11": 0.017161238704761075, "12": 0.008220646755249715, "13": 0.003524154640610289 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.85, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "CLE 6 - 4 MIN", "winner": "CLE" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "CLE 6 - 4 MIN", "winner": "CLE" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0668, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.066, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "CLE", "model_winner": "CLE", "simulation_winner": "CLE", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "CLE", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667, "draw_majority_team": "CLE", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": 0.1794, "winner": "CLE", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260912	20260912_COL@DET	DET	59.9%	88.7%	54.8%	50.0%	4.0-7.0	7-11	hit	Embedded Savant Run Environment (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.886528, "sample_size": 199, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5477, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.717114, "published_confidence": 0.5989, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 1, "sample_weight": 0.0167, "home_net_margin": 4.0, "absolute_net_margin": 4.0, "home_average_margin": 4.0, "home_run_delta": 0.0333, "away_run_delta": -0.0333, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 4.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 1.6088, "recent_quality_edge": 0.464, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 1.2081 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.019053025008002624 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.019038475939250676 }, { "home_runs": 7, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.019026391609159653 }, { "home_runs": 7, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.019011862877921077 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.017553430978819274 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.02045109470955263, "1": 0.03367949881194017, "2": 0.05102761292945757, "3": 0.07112715818365478, "4": 0.0912128937891921, "5": 0.10761370491391122, "6": 0.11680717082618355, "7": 0.11664389113873098, "8": 0.10716304983427115, "9": 0.09057716082469351, "10": 0.07043409100323927, "11": 0.0503892271189493, "12": 0.03316523297024711, "13": 0.020082555687367314, "14": 0.011187820239633472, "15": 0.0057340642096122205, "16": 0.002703772809363638 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.06446160093542892, "1": 0.10246274860027468, "2": 0.13958964331555127, "3": 0.1629906435075046, "4": 0.16311519980528189, "5": 0.13990990819154075, "6": 0.10285485397223766, "7": 0.06480722018656629, "8": 0.034998084552489206, "9": 0.016198971443320435, "10": 0.006426179978961621, "11": 0.002184945510842688 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.85, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 7, "score_text": "COL 4 - 7 DET", "winner": "DET" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 7, "score_text": "COL 4 - 7 DET", "winner": "DET" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": true, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0571, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.814, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 7, "winner": "DET", "model_winner": "DET", "simulation_winner": "DET", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "DET", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "DET", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": true, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 3, "simulation_margin": 3, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 7 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 7 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 3, "final_margin": 3, "winner_quality_edge": 1.2081, "winner": "DET", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 7, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260912	20260912_HOU@TB	TB	53.2%	46.7%	56.0%	50.0%	4.0-5.0	2-3	hit	Variance Applied (0.134)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.466795, "sample_size": 546, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5604, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.513598, "published_confidence": 0.531548, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 4, "sample_weight": 0.05, "home_net_margin": 0.0, "absolute_net_margin": 0.0, "home_average_margin": 0.0, "home_run_delta": 0.0, "away_run_delta": -0.0, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.8162, "recent_quality_edge": 0.24, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.6145 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.024123186067378302 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.022914088084304486 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02266017364824277 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.022459521435884765 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.022083852862229615 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.051603676197253666, "1": 0.08285745977708037, "2": 0.11635283948860817, "3": 0.1428949090671041, "4": 0.15347969409531906, "5": 0.14417152485434875, "6": 0.11844110684003867, "7": 0.08509809165912094, "8": 0.05347263471778216, "9": 0.02938581525914217, "10": 0.014123368903943589, "11": 0.005936538116696451, "12": 0.00218234102356163 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.055322771278611425, "1": 0.08857511930558833, "2": 0.12331833565939342, "3": 0.1492971967358341, "4": 0.15717509869674695, "5": 0.14388778263080435, "6": 0.11454395859199036, "7": 0.0792918491369276, "8": 0.04773017138042922, "9": 0.02498420480653115, "10": 0.011372243725866645, "11": 0.004501268051276489 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.85, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "HOU 4 - 5 TB", "winner": "TB" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "HOU 4 - 5 TB", "winner": "TB" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0225, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.24, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "TB", "model_winner": "TB", "simulation_winner": "TB", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "TB", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667, "draw_majority_team": "TB", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.6145, "winner": "TB", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260912	20260912_KC@BOS	BOS	53.0%	49.1%	55.3%	50.0%	4.0-6.0	1-5	hit	Embedded Savant Run Environment (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.491185, "sample_size": 378, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5529, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.522043, "published_confidence": 0.53, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 4, "sample_weight": 0.05, "home_net_margin": 8.0, "absolute_net_margin": 8.0, "home_average_margin": 2.0, "home_run_delta": 0.05, "away_run_delta": -0.05, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": 6.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 1.277, "recent_quality_edge": 0.076, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.8567 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.024701522779513485 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.02363738376454623 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.023339157514892343 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02276823465135078 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.0223995674970163 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.05427365033900339, "1": 0.08696136459770575, "2": 0.12134747368634027, "3": 0.14746950139714257, "4": 0.15607766671614648, "5": 0.14386209997449137, "6": 0.11548327895029342, "7": 0.08073445108549143, "8": 0.049154781134434444, "9": 0.026063918923964112, "10": 0.012035960250416143, "11": 0.004840484714098838, "12": 0.001695368230471866 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.056654601429077224, "1": 0.09061179942969617, "2": 0.12575518667495178, "3": 0.15144629120792016, "4": 0.15826430071150002, "5": 0.1435155199863007, "6": 0.11292922803788166, "7": 0.07710906459248738, "8": 0.04568736330536201, "9": 0.023489747039919618, "10": 0.010479780097341964, "11": 0.004057117487561459 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.85, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "KC 4 - 6 BOS", "winner": "BOS" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "KC 4 - 6 BOS", "winner": "BOS" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0408, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.251, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6, "winner": "BOS", "model_winner": "BOS", "simulation_winner": "BOS", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "BOS", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "BOS", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": 0.8567, "winner": "BOS", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260912	20260912_LAA@WAS	LAA	50.6%	51.0%	54.6%	50.0%	4.0-3.0	5-6	miss	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.5101, "sample_size": 430, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5465, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.5283, "published_confidence": 0.505648, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 1, "sample_weight": 0.0167, "home_net_margin": 1.0, "absolute_net_margin": 1.0, "home_average_margin": 1.0, "home_run_delta": 0.0083, "away_run_delta": -0.0083, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.6232, "recent_quality_edge": -0.372, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.2749 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.029331098996152067 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02858584371133114 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.028090710483107573 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.027376971443030796 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.02592148258101339 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.07244615760448497, "1": 0.11443320856548671, "2": 0.15298705472630406, "3": 0.17311040883879605, "4": 0.16578970930959505, "5": 0.1343871821848224, "6": 0.09219853391866979, "7": 0.05353725160143299, "8": 0.026312009621017676, "9": 0.010945052670961937, "10": 0.0038534309584283243 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.0693331534503768, "1": 0.10978972921583495, "2": 0.14788238541257537, "3": 0.1694357906777621, "4": 0.16513070417360554, "5": 0.13689402251198038, "6": 0.09653284595568369, "7": 0.057902819035545464, "8": 0.029543250647580146, "9": 0.012821853869944966, "10": 0.004733445049110887 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.85, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "LAA 4 - 3 WAS", "winner": "LAA" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "LAA 4 - 3 WAS", "winner": "LAA" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0347, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.022, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "winner": "LAA", "model_winner": "LAA", "simulation_winner": "LAA", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "LAA", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5, "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": -0.2749, "winner": "LAA", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260912	20260912_LAD@MIA	LAD	60.0%	86.0%	55.6%	50.0%	7.0-4.0	3-4	miss	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.85999, "sample_size": 117, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5556, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.707795, "published_confidence": 0.6, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 4, "sample_weight": 0.05, "home_net_margin": -3.0, "absolute_net_margin": 3.0, "home_average_margin": -0.75, "home_run_delta": -0.0187, "away_run_delta": 0.0187, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -4.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -1.3452, "recent_quality_edge": -0.868, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -1.1782 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.01851210090965524 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.018422931324577563 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.017860726258653998 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.017774694232497557 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 8, "probability": 0.01713007763237887 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.05813674494500982, "1": 0.09287324141940723, "2": 0.12844071929942968, "3": 0.15377547925533083, "4": 0.15938361901862613, "5": 0.14301201076713108, "6": 0.11108964437140441, "7": 0.07470451911790638, "8": 0.04349030034901345, "9": 0.021918466900478398, "10": 0.009563132548652447, "11": 0.0036121220076102316 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.01989173979834944, "1": 0.032774031505090194, "2": 0.049727154713462465, "3": 0.06948067046126788, "4": 0.08940072424232531, "5": 0.10593140194846061, "6": 0.11558861216738085, "7": 0.11614807734722005, "8": 0.10747702767608124, "9": 0.09158533028554515, "10": 0.07186920337771129, "11": 0.05193574819327053, "12": 0.03456181971222361, "13": 0.021180365719604587, "14": 0.011953000991583394, "15": 0.00621193786052733, "16": 0.002972924611532211, "17": 0.001310229388363642 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.85, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "LAD 7 - 4 MIA", "winner": "LAD" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "LAD 7 - 4 MIA", "winner": "LAD" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": true, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0558, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.868, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "LAD", "model_winner": "LAD", "simulation_winner": "LAD", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "LAD", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667, "draw_majority_team": "LAD", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": true, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 3, "simulation_margin": 3, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 3, "final_margin": 3, "winner_quality_edge": 1.1782, "winner": "LAD", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260912	20260912_NYM@NYY	NYY	53.9%	53.9%	55.0%	50.0%	5.0-7.0	12-2	miss	Embedded Savant Run Environment (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.539146, "sample_size": 620, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.55, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.544573, "published_confidence": 0.53918, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 4, "sample_weight": 0.05, "home_net_margin": 1.0, "absolute_net_margin": 1.0, "home_average_margin": 0.25, "home_run_delta": 0.0062, "away_run_delta": -0.0062, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": 3.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 1.3639, "recent_quality_edge": -0.012, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.8824 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.018447355535286487 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.017867216869311794 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.017804941369413175 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.017245005561050245 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01716349365640124 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.03273519545935881, "1": 0.05335386625176054, "2": 0.07836302993584919, "3": 0.1037172302638963, "4": 0.12370434896347127, "5": 0.13295766889156677, "6": 0.12877637122457514, "7": 0.11239664309627599, "8": 0.08840256470032629, "9": 0.0626571671512098, "10": 0.04001944056964128, "11": 0.023033802445421386, "12": 0.011946883501016256, "13": 0.005583904556648001, "14": 0.0023518829889828696 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.037825593900161186, "1": 0.06139968931845044, "2": 0.08908403495367617, "3": 0.11552789857393872, "4": 0.13391436175023452, "5": 0.13874608128344348, "6": 0.12848948367473276, "7": 0.10635740440254274, "8": 0.07869029332620153, "9": 0.05203887345741947, "10": 0.03076011087232894, "11": 0.016251789730965156, "12": 0.007674812618107923, "13": 0.0032395721377970893 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.85, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 7, "score_text": "NYM 5 - 7 NYY", "winner": "NYY" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 7, "score_text": "NYM 5 - 7 NYY", "winner": "NYY" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.014, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.012, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 7, "winner": "NYY", "model_winner": "NYY", "simulation_winner": "NYY", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 4, "published_winner": "NYY", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.75, "draw_majority_team": "NYY", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 7 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 7 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": 0.8824, "winner": "NYY", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 7, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260912	20260912_PHI@ATL	PHI	50.5%	45.8%	54.6%	50.0%	4.0-3.0	2-12	miss	Enhanced Prediction (2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.458369, "sample_size": 430, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5465, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.502435, "published_confidence": 0.505, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 2.0, "absolute_net_margin": 2.0, "home_average_margin": 0.4, "home_run_delta": 0.0115, "away_run_delta": -0.0115, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": 3.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.5574, "recent_quality_edge": 0.008, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.3651 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.03269274760285564 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.030284719901949527 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.029952930296156022 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.02976917917880518 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.02958782904144647 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.08138513719343321, "1": 0.12762934495722902, "2": 0.16697802245458396, "3": 0.18225162911797801, "4": 0.16595366864693656, "5": 0.1260682222655397, "6": 0.07989649592878628, "7": 0.04224284592484178, "8": 0.01863296372448566, "9": 0.0068566825095470315, "10": 0.0021049872766385866 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.07835496050550522, "1": 0.12317914334113586, "2": 0.16234603325434863, "3": 0.17938247115306966, "4": 0.16616981723847934, "5": 0.12905002727662884, "6": 0.08402294082905962, "7": 0.04586395196508935, "8": 0.020988378554028353, "9": 0.008052303253080302, "10": 0.002589972629575009 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.85, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "PHI 4 - 3 ATL", "winner": "PHI" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "PHI 4 - 3 ATL", "winner": "PHI" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0123, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.078, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "winner": "PHI", "model_winner": "PHI", "simulation_winner": "PHI", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "PHI", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "PHI", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": -0.3651, "winner": "PHI", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260912	20260912_PIT@CHC	CHC	53.0%	52.5%	54.6%	50.0%	4.0-5.0	3-4	hit	Enhanced Prediction (2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.52508, "sample_size": 430, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5465, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.53579, "published_confidence": 0.53, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 26.0, "absolute_net_margin": 26.0, "home_average_margin": 5.2, "home_run_delta": 0.15, "away_run_delta": -0.15, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 10.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": 11.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": 5.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.8378, "recent_quality_edge": -0.304, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.4382 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.020394143254844607 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.019726669515074742 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.019434329875388238 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.01918343067513468 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.018798269577107986 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.036069324384310056, "1": 0.0586319366651356, "2": 0.085430979822188, "3": 0.11157873955379874, "4": 0.13062684293969187, "5": 0.13707817891955712, "6": 0.128940436943943, "7": 0.10871635042853003, "8": 0.0821647442916292, "9": 0.055662289664676956, "10": 0.033800376818076856, "11": 0.01839784403117225, "12": 0.008976297532575788, "13": 0.003925658004714503 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.047484732024658007, "1": 0.07649239670326455, "2": 0.10846847953324244, "3": 0.13539724969264633, "4": 0.14877745980863005, "5": 0.14390816737251177, "6": 0.12253347562533232, "7": 0.09184279005696803, "8": 0.06059773495034556, "9": 0.03519562813123774, "10": 0.017994594152183716, "11": 0.008098720261852398, "12": 0.0032085716871269303 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.85, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "PIT 4 - 5 CHC", "winner": "CHC" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "PIT 4 - 5 CHC", "winner": "CHC" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0204, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.094, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "CHC", "model_winner": "CHC", "simulation_winner": "CHC", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 1, "published_winner": "CHC", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "CHC", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.4382, "winner": "CHC", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260912	20260912_SD@SF	SD	50.5%	51.0%	54.6%	50.0%	5.0-4.0	7-6	hit	Enhanced Prediction (2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.5101, "sample_size": 430, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5465, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.5283, "published_confidence": 0.505, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -8.0, "absolute_net_margin": 8.0, "home_average_margin": -1.6, "home_run_delta": -0.0462, "away_run_delta": 0.0462, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -7.0 }, { "home_margin": 3.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.807, "recent_quality_edge": -0.308, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.6323 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.024060133301845605 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02274530911761823 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.022508978450413112 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.022471970592906173 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.022161793503559776 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.054370712782920765, "1": 0.08711022691374375, "2": 0.12152732894590323, "3": 0.14763164171678822, "4": 0.15616569381002046, "5": 0.1438442511992374, "6": 0.11537190764679155, "7": 0.08057648655514356, "8": 0.049002390686120105, "9": 0.025949374844138923, "10": 0.011965675465062909, "11": 0.004804500344100516, "12": 0.0016798090900285495 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.052178335227108644, "1": 0.08374221330451448, "2": 0.11743553658799706, "3": 0.14389825348097193, "4": 0.15406798199299374, "5": 0.14413523163285694, "6": 0.11782265139058713, "7": 0.0841566264228886, "8": 0.052522903805856246, "9": 0.02864244083520041, "10": 0.013648100303954374, "11": 0.005682445399665142, "12": 0.0020672796154051765 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.85, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "SD 5 - 4 SF", "winner": "SD" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "SD 5 - 4 SF", "winner": "SD" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0164, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.518, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "SD", "model_winner": "SD", "simulation_winner": "SD", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 4, "published_winner": "SD", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5, "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.6323, "winner": "SD", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260912	20260912_SEA@OAK	SEA	52.5%	56.2%	55.4%	50.0%	6.0-5.0	19-1	hit	Variance Applied (0.0419)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.562242, "sample_size": 639, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.554, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.558121, "published_confidence": 0.524974, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 7.0, "absolute_net_margin": 7.0, "home_average_margin": 1.4, "home_run_delta": 0.0404, "away_run_delta": -0.0404, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": 4.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": 3.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.8412, "recent_quality_edge": 0.376, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": -0.4152 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01753918460570821 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.017137125593205706 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.016951413224470278 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.01656282797294529 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.016347029257228918 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.03297267955111452, "1": 0.05373051361018157, "2": 0.07887033662720105, "3": 0.10428752223090881, "4": 0.12421583301900985, "5": 0.13327463920141988, "6": 0.12880835296700105, "7": 0.11214153358061411, "8": 0.08794576016774454, "9": 0.06212827214539121, "10": 0.03953571490386794, "11": 0.022662920189535016, "12": 0.011702215585343071, "13": 0.005443099487400116, "14": 0.0022806067332673497 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.03176244370763886, "1": 0.051809672446337884, "2": 0.07627708947864976, "3": 0.10135932466927357, "4": 0.12156810074912627, "5": 0.13160181645062258, "6": 0.12858504585636973, "7": 0.1133979942271499, "8": 0.09026234455385547, "9": 0.06484764004345074, "10": 0.042050200392294956, "11": 0.024610945137217996, "12": 0.013000942670617292, "13": 0.006198801401680984, "14": 0.0026676382157140533 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.85, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "SEA 6 - 5 OAK", "winner": "SEA" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "SEA 6 - 5 OAK", "winner": "SEA" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0215, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.586, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "SEA", "model_winner": "SEA", "simulation_winner": "SEA", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "SEA", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5, "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.4152, "winner": "SEA", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260912	20260912_TEX@ARI	ARI	55.9%	61.6%	55.4%	50.0%	4.0-5.0	6-2	miss	Variance Applied (0.4756)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.615883, "sample_size": 379, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5541, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.584991, "published_confidence": 0.558943, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 4, "sample_weight": 0.05, "home_net_margin": 5.0, "absolute_net_margin": 5.0, "home_average_margin": 1.25, "home_run_delta": 0.0312, "away_run_delta": -0.0312, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 8.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.4493, "recent_quality_edge": 0.216, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.3677 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.022509061214167174 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.022030792512203686 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.021902807990627913 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.0214374208539827 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.020492260298540694 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.03976040059345447, "1": 0.06444023790685575, "2": 0.09306121930653795, "3": 0.1197527681960092, "4": 0.13731171888879767, "5": 0.14029263287638766, "6": 0.12772248133836328, "7": 0.10361080508587542, "8": 0.07489416254593917, "9": 0.04823875706391095, "10": 0.02768531497401748, "11": 0.01415820016834928, "12": 0.006451665566817519, "13": 0.002619635488684202 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.05967389984153099, "1": 0.09521291959296325, "2": 0.13119664186726296, "3": 0.15612229624292928, "4": 0.1604436437799267, "5": 0.14239524191597544, "6": 0.10913996594007887, "7": 0.07224162809317429, "8": 0.04129586914522012, "9": 0.020386424916602953, "10": 0.008691423419434812, "11": 0.0032000452449002076 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.85, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "TEX 4 - 5 ARI", "winner": "ARI" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "TEX 4 - 5 ARI", "winner": "ARI" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0711, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.216, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "ARI", "model_winner": "ARI", "simulation_winner": "ARI", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "ARI", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "ARI", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.3677, "winner": "ARI", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }

Starting-pitcher component quality

H	{ "mae": 2.2333, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": -0.8333 }
R	{ "mae": 1.5667, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": -0.2333 }
ER	{ "mae": 1.5667, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": -0.2333 }
BB	{ "mae": 1.7667, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.5 }
SO	{ "mae": 1.9, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.4333 }
HR	{ "mae": 1.0, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": -0.5333 }
IP_outs	{ "mae_outs": 3.8333, "mae_innings": 1.2778, "bias_outs": 1.3667 }

IP error is measured in outs. No single-outing ERA is used; ER and workload are compared directly.

Date

Game

Side

Pred starter

Actual starter

Match

Pred IP

Actual IP

Δ outs

Pred ER

Actual ER

Δ ER

H P/A

BB P/A

SO P/A

All context

20260912

20260912_BAL@TOR

away

Kyle Bradish

True

5.1

3.0

-7

6/8

2/2

6/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.9078947368421053,
      "WHIP": 1.4210526315789473,
      "IP": 152.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 28,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.429,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.0,
      "last_start_IP": 4.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.0942,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.008,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9891,
      "walk_factor": 1.024,
      "homer_factor": 1.0279,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 21.5,
      "bb_percent": 10.4,
      "woba": 0.332,
      "xwoba": 0.318,
      "barrel_percent": 8.3,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.1,
      "whiff_percent": 23.6
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 147,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 28.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8485,
        "prior_weight": 0.1515
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "680694",
      "report_date": "20260912",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 28,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 25.0,
            "ER": 14.0,
            "R": 19.0,
            "H": 32.0,
            "BB": 14.0,
            "SO": 19.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 117.0,
            "Pitches": 464.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.8,
            "R": 3.8,
            "H": 6.4,
            "BB": 2.8,
            "SO": 3.8,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 23.4,
            "Pitches": 92.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.04,
            "WHIP": 1.84,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.56,
            "H_per_IP": 1.28,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.56,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.76,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.2
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 51.1,
            "ER": 24.0,
            "R": 30.0,
            "H": 55.0,
            "BB": 20.0,
            "SO": 39.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 223.0,
            "Pitches": 893.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 5.5,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 3.9,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 22.3,
            "Pitches": 89.3
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.2078,
            "WHIP": 1.461,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.46753,
            "H_per_IP": 1.07143,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.38961,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.75974,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11688
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 28,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 152.0,
            "ER": 66.0,
            "R": 78.0,
            "H": 148.0,
            "BB": 68.0,
            "SO": 140.0,
            "HR": 18.0,
            "BF": 652.0,
            "Pitches": 2573.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.3571,
            "R": 2.7857,
            "H": 5.2857,
            "BB": 2.4286,
            "SO": 5.0,
            "HR": 0.6429,
            "BF": 23.2857,
            "Pitches": 91.8929
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.9079,
            "WHIP": 1.4211,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.43421,
            "H_per_IP": 0.97368,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.44737,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.92105,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11842
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.567,
        "predicted_H": 5.717,
        "predicted_BB": 2.357,
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        "predicted_ERA": 4.5235,
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
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      "adaptive_parameters": {
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        "predicted_ER": {
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        "predicted_H": {
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        "predicted_BB": {
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        "predicted_SO": {
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        "predicted_HR": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
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    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
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        "trend": "stable"
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      "pitching": {
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      "fielding": {
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-06T00:00:00"
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    "recent_form_boost": 0.9798391419188102,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
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        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "680694",
      "player_name": "Kyle Bradish",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "BAL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
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          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
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        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          {
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          {
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
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            "delta": 0.0,
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        ],
        "summary": {
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            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "BAL",
        "games": 148,
        "wins": 72,
        "losses": 76,
        "win_pct": 0.4865,
        "runs_scored": 668.0,
        "runs_allowed": 692.0,
        "run_differential": -24.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.1622,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5135,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6757,
        "offense_index": 1.0026,
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        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7,
          "run_differential": -7.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1013
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "TOR",
        "games": 148,
        "wins": 73,
        "losses": 75,
        "win_pct": 0.4932,
        "runs_scored": 593.0,
        "runs_allowed": 635.0,
        "run_differential": -42.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2838,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0068,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2905,
        "offense_index": 0.89,
        "defense_index": 1.0492,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
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          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7,
          "run_differential": 8.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0405
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0608,
        "offense_edge": 0.0026,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.11,
        "defense_strength": -0.0372,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0492,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0009,
        "run_prevention": 0.9892,
        "strikeout": 1.007
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "680694",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "680694",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 626.0,
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            "bb_percent": 10.4,
            "woba": 0.332,
            "xwoba": 0.318,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 32.7,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.1,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.9977,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9275,
            "whiff_percent": 23.6,
            "swing_percent": 45.5
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 130.5,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.3165,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6397,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9178,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.1706,
            "command_and_miss": -0.1621,
            "regression_edge": 0.4,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.2,
            "barrel_edge": -0.2667,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.0143,
            "whiff_edge": -0.2,
            "bb_edge": -0.3,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.044
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "680694",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 95,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 95,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.63469351624383,
              "release_spin_rate": 2423.758885534265,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 95,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.63469351624383,
                "release_spin_rate": 2423.758885534265,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
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                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
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                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.6347,
              "release_spin_rate": 2423.7589,
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              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
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              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
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            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.044,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
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              "velocity_edge": 0.3143,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.0942,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.008,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9891,
          "walk_factor": 1.024,
          "homer_factor": 1.0279,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.014,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "680694",
            "espn_id": 4311625,
            "player_name": "Kyle Bradish",
            "team": "BAL",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 147,
            "espn_total_ranked": 859,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 147,
              "gp_value": 28.0,
              "gp_rank": 270,
              "gs_value": 28.0,
              "gs_rank": 31,
              "qs_value": 12.0,
              "qs_rank": 37,
              "era_value": 3.9078,
              "era_rank": 32.0,
              "w_value": 7.0,
              "w_rank": 86,
              "l_value": 13.0,
              "l_rank": 4,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 250,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 353,
              "ip_value": 152.0,
              "ip_rank": 43,
              "h_value": 148.0,
              "h_rank": 24,
              "er_value": 66.0,
              "er_rank": 47,
              "hr_value": 18.0,
              "hr_rank": 59,
              "bb_value": 68.0,
              "bb_rank": 8,
              "k_value": 140.0,
              "k_rank": 43,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.289474,
              "k_per_9_rank": 27.0,
              "whip_value": 1.421,
              "whip_rank": 47.0,
              "war_value": 1.29,
              "war_rank": 44.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.008,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.008,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.024,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0279,
            "adjusted": 1
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9891,
            "adjusted": 4
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 25,
      "Pitches": 101,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -7 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was +2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260912_BAL@TOR.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260912

20260912_BAL@TOR

home

Spencer Miles

True

5.0

2.0

-9

-2

1/1

0/2

4/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.7718631178707223,
      "WHIP": 1.0494296577946767,
      "IP": 87.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 45,
      "role_avg_IP": 2.833,
      "recent_avg_IP": 2.8,
      "last_start_IP": 1.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.5264,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9553,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9691,
      "walk_factor": 0.936,
      "homer_factor": 0.8818,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 23.1,
      "bb_percent": 6.0,
      "woba": 0.252,
      "xwoba": 0.267,
      "barrel_percent": 3.6,
      "hard_hit_percent": 34.8,
      "whiff_percent": 18.5
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 64,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.2,
      "season_IP": 87.2,
      "season_ERA": 2.772,
      "season_WHIP": 1.049,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
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        "sample_size": 17.688,
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        "prior_weight": 0.2204
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
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              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 18,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 91.23355064115414,
                "release_spin_rate": 2455.6420446448724,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 91.2336,
              "release_spin_rate": 2455.642,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0775,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.5538,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.5264,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9553,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9691,
          "walk_factor": 0.936,
          "homer_factor": 0.8818,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.015,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "693686",
            "espn_id": 4833671,
            "player_name": "Spencer Miles",
            "team": "TOR",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 64,
            "espn_total_ranked": 859,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 64,
              "gp_value": 45.0,
              "gp_rank": 140,
              "gs_value": 6.0,
              "gs_rank": 207,
              "qs_value": 0.0,
              "qs_rank": 210,
              "era_value": 2.7718,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 6.0,
              "w_rank": 108,
              "l_value": 2.0,
              "l_rank": 330,
              "sv_value": 2.0,
              "sv_rank": 93,
              "hld_value": 4.0,
              "hld_rank": 192,
              "ip_value": 87.2,
              "ip_rank": 148,
              "h_value": 71.0,
              "h_rank": 161,
              "er_value": 27.0,
              "er_rank": 217,
              "hr_value": 5.0,
              "hr_rank": 321,
              "bb_value": 21.0,
              "bb_rank": 282,
              "k_value": 81.0,
              "k_rank": 154,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.315589,
              "k_per_9_rank": 28.0,
              "whip_value": 1.0494,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 2.21,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9553,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 0.9553,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.936,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.8818,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9691,
            "adjusted": 2
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 1,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 16,
      "Pitches": 66,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least three innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -9 outs from the projected workload."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260912_BAL@TOR.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260912

20260912_CHW@STL

away

Sean Newcomb

True

5.0

1.1

-11

-1

3/1

1/1

7/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.710843373493976,
      "WHIP": 1.108433734939759,
      "IP": 83.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 52,
      "role_avg_IP": 2.083,
      "recent_avg_IP": 2.083,
      "last_start_IP": 2.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0934,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9921,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9874,
      "walk_factor": 0.988,
      "homer_factor": 0.9537,
      "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 21.8,
      "bb_percent": 8.6,
      "woba": 0.27,
      "xwoba": 0.305,
      "barrel_percent": 5.2,
      "hard_hit_percent": 36.7,
      "whiff_percent": 23.0
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 56,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 6.0,
      "season_IP": 83.0,
      "season_ERA": 2.711,
      "season_WHIP": 1.108,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 16.747,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7701,
        "prior_weight": 0.2299
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "656794",
      "report_date": "20260912",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 52,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 11.0,
            "ER": 6.0,
            "R": 6.0,
            "H": 13.0,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 7.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 48.0,
            "Pitches": 186.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 2.1,
            "ER": 1.2,
            "R": 1.2,
            "H": 2.6,
            "BB": 0.4,
            "SO": 1.4,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 9.6,
            "Pitches": 37.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.9091,
            "WHIP": 1.3636,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.54545,
            "H_per_IP": 1.18182,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.18182,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.63636,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 19.2,
            "ER": 6.0,
            "R": 7.0,
            "H": 15.0,
            "BB": 6.0,
            "SO": 14.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 79.0,
            "Pitches": 326.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 2.0,
            "ER": 0.6,
            "R": 0.7,
            "H": 1.5,
            "BB": 0.6,
            "SO": 1.4,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 7.9,
            "Pitches": 32.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.7458,
            "WHIP": 1.0678,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.30508,
            "H_per_IP": 0.76271,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.30508,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.71186,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 52,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 83.0,
            "ER": 25.0,
            "R": 28.0,
            "H": 63.0,
            "BB": 29.0,
            "SO": 74.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 337.0,
            "Pitches": 1313.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.2,
            "ER": 0.4808,
            "R": 0.5385,
            "H": 1.2115,
            "BB": 0.5577,
            "SO": 1.4231,
            "HR": 0.0385,
            "BF": 6.4808,
            "Pitches": 25.25
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.7108,
            "WHIP": 1.1084,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.3012,
            "H_per_IP": 0.75904,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.3494,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.89157,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0241
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 3.0,
        "predicted_ER": 1.293,
        "predicted_H": 2.851,
        "predicted_BB": 0.848,
        "predicted_SO": 2.286,
        "predicted_HR": 0.111,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.9003,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2399
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4471,
      "form_weight": 0.5529,
      "form_reliability": 0.7701,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 16.747,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7701,
        "prior_weight": 0.2299
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 3.0,
          "final": 4.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 1.293,
          "final": 2.0563,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.851,
          "final": 2.9176,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.848,
          "final": 0.916,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 2.286,
          "final": 4.3938,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 0.111,
          "final": 0.9556,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.9003,
          "final": 3.9003,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2399,
          "final": 1.2399,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 19.2,
        "ER": 6,
        "H": 15,
        "BB": 6,
        "SO": 14,
        "HR": 0,
        "ERA": 2.7457627118644066,
        "WHIP": 1.0677966101694916,
        "K9": 6.406779661016949,
        "HR9": 0.0,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-09T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.87449603410094,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 7.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 16.747,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7701,
          "prior_weight": 0.2299
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 3,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 7,
          "predicted_HR": 2
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 3,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 7,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "656794",
      "player_name": "Sean Newcomb",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CHW",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.1667,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.1667,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.3333,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.5,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 2,
            "better_metrics": 2,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.3333,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 4,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.3333,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.5,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.1667,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 7.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 3,
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          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.3333,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "CHW",
        "games": 147,
        "wins": 75,
        "losses": 72,
        "win_pct": 0.5102,
        "runs_scored": 688.0,
        "runs_allowed": 653.0,
        "run_differential": 35.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.2381,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.6803,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4422,
        "offense_index": 1.0397,
        "defense_index": 1.0134,
        "current_streak": "L4",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.9,
          "run_differential": -6.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0322
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "STL",
        "games": 148,
        "wins": 73,
        "losses": 75,
        "win_pct": 0.4932,
        "runs_scored": 675.0,
        "runs_allowed": 683.0,
        "run_differential": -8.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.0541,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5608,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6149,
        "offense_index": 1.0131,
        "defense_index": 0.9755,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.8,
          "run_differential": 7.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0124
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0198,
        "offense_edge": 0.0397,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0131,
        "defense_strength": 0.0134,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0245,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9991,
        "run_prevention": 1.0017,
        "strikeout": 0.9984
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "656794",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "656794",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 317.0,
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            "bb_percent": 8.6,
            "woba": 0.27,
            "xwoba": 0.305,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 32.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 5.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 36.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.1285,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.7581,
            "whiff_percent": 23.0,
            "swing_percent": 45.7
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 130.5,
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            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.3165,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6397,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9178,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
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          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.3852,
            "command_and_miss": -0.0829,
            "regression_edge": -1.0,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.1714,
            "barrel_edge": 0.4222,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.1857,
            "whiff_edge": -0.2857,
            "bb_edge": 0.15,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0094
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "656794",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 36,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 36,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.6819236058532,
              "release_spin_rate": 2443.82215386872,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 36,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.6819236058532,
                "release_spin_rate": 2443.82215386872,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.6819,
              "release_spin_rate": 2443.8222,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
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              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0094,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.0668,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0934,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9921,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9874,
          "walk_factor": 0.988,
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          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.035,
          "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "656794",
            "espn_id": 33856,
            "player_name": "Sean Newcomb",
            "team": "CHW",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 56,
            "espn_total_ranked": 859,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 56,
              "gp_value": 53.0,
              "gp_rank": 92,
              "gs_value": 4.0,
              "gs_rank": 235,
              "qs_value": 0.0,
              "qs_rank": 210,
              "era_value": 2.7108,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 2.0,
              "w_rank": 316,
              "l_value": 4.0,
              "l_rank": 189,
              "sv_value": 4.0,
              "sv_rank": 54,
              "hld_value": 11.0,
              "hld_rank": 76,
              "ip_value": 83.0,
              "ip_rank": 157,
              "h_value": 65.0,
              "h_rank": 181,
              "er_value": 25.0,
              "er_rank": 244,
              "hr_value": 2.0,
              "hr_rank": 528,
              "bb_value": 29.0,
              "bb_rank": 179,
              "k_value": 74.0,
              "k_rank": 170,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.0240965,
              "k_per_9_rank": 29.0,
              "whip_value": 1.1325,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 2.47,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9921,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9921,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.988,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9537,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9874,
            "adjusted": 4
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 88,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least three innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -11 outs from the projected workload."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260912_CHW@STL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260912

20260912_CHW@STL

home

Kyle Leahy

True

5.0

3.0

-6

2/2

5/0

3/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "IP": 132.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 27,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.889,
      "recent_avg_IP": 3.933,
      "last_start_IP": 2.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.4119,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.035,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9874,
      "walk_factor": 0.952,
      "homer_factor": 1.1298,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 22.2,
      "bb_percent": 6.8,
      "woba": 0.325,
      "xwoba": 0.337,
      "barrel_percent": 10.0,
      "hard_hit_percent": 47.8,
      "whiff_percent": 22.6
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 60,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.0,
      "season_IP": 132.0,
      "season_ERA": 3.409,
      "season_WHIP": 1.326,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
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        "last_10": 0.35,
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      },
      "shrinkage": {
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
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        "data_weight": 0.8438,
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      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "681517",
      "report_date": "20260912",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 27,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
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          "totals": {
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            "ER": 7.0,
            "R": 7.0,
            "H": 21.0,
            "BB": 3.0,
            "SO": 25.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 81.0,
            "Pitches": 340.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.0,
            "ER": 1.4,
            "R": 1.4,
            "H": 4.2,
            "BB": 0.6,
            "SO": 5.0,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 16.2,
            "Pitches": 68.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.2034,
            "WHIP": 1.2203,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.35593,
            "H_per_IP": 1.0678,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.15254,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.27119,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10169
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 45.2,
            "ER": 13.0,
            "R": 13.0,
            "H": 45.0,
            "BB": 5.0,
            "SO": 51.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
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            "Pitches": 761.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 1.3,
            "R": 1.3,
            "H": 4.5,
            "BB": 0.5,
            "SO": 5.1,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 18.1,
            "Pitches": 76.1
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.562,
            "WHIP": 1.0949,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.28467,
            "H_per_IP": 0.9854,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.10949,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.11679,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10949
          }
        },
        "season": {
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          "totals": {
            "IP": 132.0,
            "ER": 50.0,
            "R": 50.0,
            "H": 137.0,
            "BB": 38.0,
            "SO": 124.0,
            "HR": 14.0,
            "BF": 559.0,
            "Pitches": 2192.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 1.8519,
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            "H": 5.0741,
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            "SO": 4.5926,
            "HR": 0.5185,
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            "Pitches": 81.1852
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.4091,
            "WHIP": 1.3258,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.37879,
            "H_per_IP": 1.03788,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.28788,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.93939,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10606
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.2,
        "predicted_ER": 1.636,
        "predicted_H": 4.628,
        "predicted_BB": 0.89,
        "predicted_SO": 5.056,
        "predicted_HR": 0.505,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.2559,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2203
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
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      "form_reliability": 0.8438,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
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        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
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      "applied_metrics": {
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          "form": 4.2,
          "final": 4.2,
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.636,
          "final": 0.9554,
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 4.628,
          "final": 3.5348,
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        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 0.89,
          "final": 2.5997,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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          "form": 5.056,
          "final": 4.2007,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.505,
          "final": 0.2949,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.2559,
          "final": 3.2559,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2203,
          "final": 1.2203,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 45.2,
        "ER": 13,
        "H": 45,
        "BB": 5,
        "SO": 51,
        "HR": 5,
        "ERA": 2.562043795620438,
        "WHIP": 1.094890510948905,
        "K9": 10.05109489051095,
        "HR9": 0.9854014598540146,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-06T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.7855387342972346,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 0.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 5.0,
          "predicted_SO": 3.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 27.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8438,
          "prior_weight": 0.1562
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "681517",
      "player_name": "Kyle Leahy",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "STL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 5.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 5.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 0.0,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 0,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 0,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "STL",
        "games": 148,
        "wins": 73,
        "losses": 75,
        "win_pct": 0.4932,
        "runs_scored": 675.0,
        "runs_allowed": 683.0,
        "run_differential": -8.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.0541,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5608,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6149,
        "offense_index": 1.0131,
        "defense_index": 0.9755,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.8,
          "run_differential": 7.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0124
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "CHW",
        "games": 147,
        "wins": 75,
        "losses": 72,
        "win_pct": 0.5102,
        "runs_scored": 688.0,
        "runs_allowed": 653.0,
        "run_differential": 35.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.2381,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.6803,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4422,
        "offense_index": 1.0397,
        "defense_index": 1.0134,
        "current_streak": "L4",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.9,
          "run_differential": -6.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0322
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0198,
        "offense_edge": 0.0131,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0397,
        "defense_strength": -0.0245,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0134,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9985,
        "run_prevention": 1.0078,
        "strikeout": 0.9974
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "681517",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "681517",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 543.0,
            "k_percent": 22.2,
            "bb_percent": 6.8,
            "woba": 0.325,
            "xwoba": 0.337,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 36.8,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 10.0,
            "hard_hit_percent": 47.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 81.1785,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 95.4242,
            "whiff_percent": 22.6,
            "swing_percent": 46.5
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 130.5,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.3165,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6397,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9178,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.6777,
            "command_and_miss": 0.0129,
            "regression_edge": -0.3429,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.7429,
            "barrel_edge": -0.6444,
            "hard_hit_edge": -1.4,
            "whiff_edge": -0.3429,
            "bb_edge": 0.6,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0187
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "681517",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 73,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 73,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.51471712850346,
              "release_spin_rate": 2179.7749965573753,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 73,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.51471712850346,
                "release_spin_rate": 2179.7749965573753,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.5147,
              "release_spin_rate": 2179.775,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0187,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.1337,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.4119,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.035,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9874,
          "walk_factor": 0.952,
          "homer_factor": 1.1298,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.012,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "681517",
            "espn_id": 5006093,
            "player_name": "Kyle Leahy",
            "team": "STL",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 60,
            "espn_total_ranked": 859,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 60,
              "gp_value": 27.0,
              "gp_rank": 294,
              "gs_value": 27.0,
              "gs_rank": 43,
              "qs_value": 6.0,
              "qs_rank": 92,
              "era_value": 3.409,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 10.0,
              "w_rank": 29,
              "l_value": 4.0,
              "l_rank": 189,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 250,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 353,
              "ip_value": 132.0,
              "ip_rank": 78,
              "h_value": 137.0,
              "h_rank": 44,
              "er_value": 50.0,
              "er_rank": 104,
              "hr_value": 14.0,
              "hr_rank": 109,
              "bb_value": 38.0,
              "bb_rank": 103,
              "k_value": 124.0,
              "k_rank": 62,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.454545,
              "k_per_9_rank": 21.0,
              "whip_value": 1.3257,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 2.4,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.035,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.035,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.952,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.1298,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9874,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 0,
      "predicted_ER": 0,
      "predicted_BB": 5,
      "predicted_SO": 3,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 97,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -6 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -5."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260912_CHW@STL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260912

20260912_CIN@MIL

away

Brady Singer

True

5.0

4.0

-3

8/8

1/5

4/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 5.031818181818182,
      "WHIP": 1.465909090909091,
      "IP": 146.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 28,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.238,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.4,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.5233,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0445,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9749,
      "walk_factor": 0.972,
      "homer_factor": 1.1018,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 18.2,
      "bb_percent": 7.8,
      "woba": 0.356,
      "xwoba": 0.348,
      "barrel_percent": 9.5,
      "hard_hit_percent": 42.8,
      "whiff_percent": 24.4
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 181,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 28.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8485,
        "prior_weight": 0.1515
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "663903",
      "report_date": "20260912",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 28,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 27.0,
            "ER": 20.0,
            "R": 20.0,
            "H": 33.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 20.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 128.0,
            "Pitches": 471.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 4.0,
            "R": 4.0,
            "H": 6.6,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 4.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 25.6,
            "Pitches": 94.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.6667,
            "WHIP": 1.6296,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.74074,
            "H_per_IP": 1.22222,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.40741,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.74074,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.18519
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 57.0,
            "ER": 35.0,
            "R": 35.0,
            "H": 63.0,
            "BB": 20.0,
            "SO": 44.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 256.0,
            "Pitches": 972.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 3.5,
            "R": 3.5,
            "H": 6.3,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 4.4,
            "HR": 0.7,
            "BF": 25.6,
            "Pitches": 97.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.5263,
            "WHIP": 1.4561,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.61404,
            "H_per_IP": 1.10526,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.35088,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.77193,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12281
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 28,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 146.2,
            "ER": 82.0,
            "R": 87.0,
            "H": 164.0,
            "BB": 51.0,
            "SO": 120.0,
            "HR": 27.0,
            "BF": 658.0,
            "Pitches": 2547.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.9286,
            "R": 3.1071,
            "H": 5.8571,
            "BB": 1.8214,
            "SO": 4.2857,
            "HR": 0.9643,
            "BF": 23.5,
            "Pitches": 90.9643
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.0318,
            "WHIP": 1.4659,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.55909,
            "H_per_IP": 1.11818,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.34773,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.81818,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.18409
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 3.457,
        "predicted_H": 6.149,
        "predicted_BB": 2.037,
        "predicted_SO": 4.31,
        "predicted_HR": 0.872,
        "predicted_ERA": 5.7269,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.5069
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.414,
      "form_weight": 0.586,
      "form_reliability": 0.8485,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
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        "predicted_ER": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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        "predicted_WHIP": {
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    "recent_form_analysis": {
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      "pitching": {
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      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
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          "weights": {},
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        {
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          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
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          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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          },
          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "changed_metrics": [
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            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "CIN",
        "games": 147,
        "wins": 69,
        "losses": 78,
        "win_pct": 0.4694,
        "runs_scored": 611.0,
        "runs_allowed": 753.0,
        "run_differential": -142.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.966,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1565,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.1224,
        "offense_index": 0.9233,
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        "current_streak": "L4",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 7.5,
          "run_differential": -34.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.179
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "MIL",
        "games": 148,
        "wins": 92,
        "losses": 56,
        "win_pct": 0.6216,
        "runs_scored": 762.0,
        "runs_allowed": 570.0,
        "run_differential": 192.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.2973,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.1486,
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          "avg_runs_scored": 7.6,
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          "run_differential": 29.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.3319
      },
      "edges": {
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        "offense_edge": -0.0767,
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        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.3
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      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9702,
        "run_prevention": 1.0607,
        "strikeout": 0.9732
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "663903",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "663903",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 621.0,
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            "woba": 0.356,
            "xwoba": 0.348,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 36.3,
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            "avg_best_speed": 81.2426,
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          "league_medians": {
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            "woba": 0.3165,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6397,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9178,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
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          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.8603,
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            "xwoba_edge": -1.0571,
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            "bb_edge": 0.35,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.1413
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "663903",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 95,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 95,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 87.32524347224859,
              "release_spin_rate": 2382.6721024043113,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
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              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
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            "pitch_mix": [
              {
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                "pitches": 95,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 87.32524347224859,
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                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
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                "release_extension": 0.0,
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            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.3252,
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            "components": {
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
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          "quality_score": -0.5233,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
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          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_name": "Brady Singer",
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            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 181,
            "espn_total_ranked": 859,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 181,
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              "l_rank": 4,
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              "whip_value": 1.4659,
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              "war_rank": null
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            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
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            "factor": 1.0445,
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          "predicted_H": {
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          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
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          "predicted_HR": {
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            "original": 4.0,
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    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
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      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 24,
      "Pitches": 91,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
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  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +2."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was +4."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was +3."
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  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260912_CIN@MIL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260912

20260912_CIN@MIL

home

Shane Drohan

True

5.0

3.2

-4

4/5

1/2

5/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "WHIP": 1.3119533527696794,
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    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 230,
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      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
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      "effective_weights": {
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      "shrinkage": {
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          "per_game": {
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        },
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          "per_game": {
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          "per_game": {
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          "rates": {
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      "weighted_prediction": {
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      "adaptive_parameters": {
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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        "predicted_WHIP": {
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    "recent_form_analysis": {
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        "AVG": 0,
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        "hot_streak": false,
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      "pitching": {
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      "fielding": {
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        "games_fielded": 10,
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-04T00:00:00"
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        "stats": {
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "675660",
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      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
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          "changed_metrics": [],
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          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
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          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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      "total_change": {
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    "team_form_snapshot": {
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        "win_pct": 0.6216,
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        "run_differential_per_game": 1.2973,
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          "win_pct": 0.7,
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      "opponent": {
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        "losses": 78,
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      "edges": {
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        "offense_edge": 0.1437,
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      "player_factors": {
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        "strikeout": 1.0215
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "675660",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "675660",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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            "sweet_spot_percent": 35.7,
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            "avg_best_speed": 77.1542,
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          "league_medians": {
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            "avg_best_speed": 77.6397,
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          "components": {
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            "xwoba_edge": 0.4,
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            "pitch_design_score": 0.033
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "675660",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 80,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 80,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.43855482251466,
              "release_spin_rate": 2558.4802301859963,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
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              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
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            "pitch_mix": [
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                "pitches": 80,
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                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
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                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.4386,
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            "components": {
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              "velocity_edge": 0.2358,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
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          "quality_score": 0.1851,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9843,
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          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_name": "Shane Drohan",
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            "espn_total_ranked": 859,
            "metrics": {
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              "era_rank": null,
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              "hld_value": 2.0,
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              "whip_value": 1.3119,
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              "war_rank": null
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            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
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            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9843,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 0.9843,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.978,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0136,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0234,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 20,
      "Pitches": 79,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +3."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was +2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260912_CIN@MIL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260912

20260912_CLE@MIN

away

Daniel Espino

True

3.0

2.0

-3

5/1

2/0

4/2

Last 10 before this game (9 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "WHIP": 1.3,
      "IP": 10.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 9,
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      "recent_avg_IP": 1.333,
      "last_start_IP": 0.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.6044,
      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9486,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0818,
      "walk_factor": 1.0009,
      "homer_factor": 0.9525,
      "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 41.9,
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      "woba": 0.287,
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      "barrel_percent": 4.8,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.1,
      "whiff_percent": 39.3
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 357,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.6164383561643836,
        "last_10": 0.3835616438356164
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      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
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      },
      "role": "pitcher",
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      "player_id": "682982",
      "report_date": "20260912",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 9,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.0,
      "windows": {
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          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 6.2,
            "ER": 0.0,
            "R": 0.0,
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            "SO": 11.0,
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          "per_game": {
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            "R": 0.0,
            "H": 1.0,
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            "BF": 5.4,
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          "rates": {
            "ERA": 0.0,
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            "ER_per_IP": 0.0,
            "H_per_IP": 0.75,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.3,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.65,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 9,
          "totals": {
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            "R": 3.0,
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            "BB": 4.0,
            "SO": 18.0,
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          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.0,
            "ER": 0.3333,
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            "HR": 0.1111,
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          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.3,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.3,
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            "HR_per_IP": 0.1
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        },
        "season": {
          "games": 9,
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          },
          "per_game": {
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          "rates": {
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            "ER_per_IP": 0.3,
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            "BB_per_IP": 0.4,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.8,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 3.1,
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        "predicted_H": 2.957,
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        "predicted_SO": 3.712,
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        "predicted_ERA": 3.5253,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2865
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
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      "adaptive_parameters": {
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
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          "form": 1.252,
          "final": 2.39,
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
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        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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        },
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        "predicted_HR": {
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          "form": 0.368,
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
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        "ER": 3,
        "H": 9,
        "BB": 4,
        "SO": 18,
        "HR": 1,
        "ERA": 2.7,
        "WHIP": 1.3,
        "K9": 16.2,
        "HR9": 0.9,
        "games_pitched": 9,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 9,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 9,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-09T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9363999469330037,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 2.018,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.2875,
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      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 5,
          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 4,
          "predicted_HR": 1
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "682982",
      "player_name": "Daniel Espino",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CLE",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
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          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
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            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
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              "projection_effect": "worse",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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      "total_change": {
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          "has_material_change": true,
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
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        "games": 148,
        "wins": 75,
        "losses": 73,
        "win_pct": 0.5068,
        "runs_scored": 603.0,
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        "run_differential": -13.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.0878,
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        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1622,
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      "opponent": {
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      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
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        "pitcher_id": "682982",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "682982",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6397,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9178,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 1.2441,
            "command_and_miss": 1.835,
            "regression_edge": 1.4857,
            "xwoba_edge": 2.1714,
            "barrel_edge": 0.5111,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.0143,
            "whiff_edge": 2.0429,
            "bb_edge": -0.025,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.2601
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "682982",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 23,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 23,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 94.49281380717235,
              "release_spin_rate": 2419.600543991827,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 23,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 94.49281380717235,
                "release_spin_rate": 2419.600543991827,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 94.4928,
              "release_spin_rate": 2419.6005,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.2601,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 1.8575,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.6044,
          "sample_weight": 0.45,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9486,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0818,
          "walk_factor": 1.0009,
          "homer_factor": 0.9525,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.052,
          "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "682982",
            "espn_id": 42438,
            "player_name": "Daniel Espino",
            "team": "CLE",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 357,
            "espn_total_ranked": 859,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 357,
              "gp_value": 9.0,
              "gp_rank": 545,
              "gs_value": 0.0,
              "gs_rank": 367,
              "qs_value": 0.0,
              "qs_rank": 210,
              "era_value": 2.7,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 0.0,
              "w_rank": 535,
              "l_value": 0.0,
              "l_rank": 574,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 250,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 353,
              "ip_value": 10.0,
              "ip_rank": 622,
              "h_value": 9.0,
              "h_rank": 651,
              "er_value": 3.0,
              "er_rank": 712,
              "hr_value": 1.0,
              "hr_rank": 614,
              "bb_value": 4.0,
              "bb_rank": 653,
              "k_value": 18.0,
              "k_rank": 506,
              "k_per_9_value": 16.199999,
              "k_per_9_rank": 21.0,
              "whip_value": 1.3,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.18,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9769,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9769,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0004,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9786,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0368,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 3.0,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 16,
      "Pitches": 73,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 9 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was -4."
    },
    {
      "code": "MISSED_SHUTDOWN",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Model missed a shutdown outing",
      "detail": "The pitcher allowed zero earned runs after a projection of 3 ER."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260912_CLE@MIN.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260912

20260912_CLE@MIN

home

Connor Prielipp

True

5.0

5.1

-1

7/5

3/0

0/1

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 5.25,
      "WHIP": 1.3611111111111112,
      "IP": 108.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 21,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.211,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.333,
      "last_start_IP": 5.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.0319,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0027,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.012,
      "walk_factor": 0.988,
      "homer_factor": 1.0287,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 24.8,
      "bb_percent": 8.6,
      "woba": 0.329,
      "xwoba": 0.313,
      "barrel_percent": 7.3,
      "hard_hit_percent": 42.1,
      "whiff_percent": 24.3
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 689,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 21.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8077,
        "prior_weight": 0.1923
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "687570",
      "report_date": "20260912",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 21,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 25.1,
            "ER": 19.0,
            "R": 19.0,
            "H": 30.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 28.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 111.0,
            "Pitches": 409.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 3.8,
            "R": 3.8,
            "H": 6.0,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 5.6,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 22.2,
            "Pitches": 81.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.75,
            "WHIP": 1.5,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.75,
            "H_per_IP": 1.18421,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.31579,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.10526,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11842
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 52.1,
            "ER": 31.0,
            "R": 31.0,
            "H": 51.0,
            "BB": 17.0,
            "SO": 61.0,
            "HR": 8.0,
            "BF": 220.0,
            "Pitches": 841.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 3.1,
            "R": 3.1,
            "H": 5.1,
            "BB": 1.7,
            "SO": 6.1,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 22.0,
            "Pitches": 84.1
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.3312,
            "WHIP": 1.2994,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.59236,
            "H_per_IP": 0.97452,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.32484,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.16561,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15287
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 21,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 108.0,
            "ER": 63.0,
            "R": 71.0,
            "H": 107.0,
            "BB": 40.0,
            "SO": 116.0,
            "HR": 14.0,
            "BF": 467.0,
            "Pitches": 1821.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.381,
            "H": 5.0952,
            "BB": 1.9048,
            "SO": 5.5238,
            "HR": 0.6667,
            "BF": 22.2381,
            "Pitches": 86.7143
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.25,
            "WHIP": 1.3611,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.58333,
            "H_per_IP": 0.99074,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.37037,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.07407,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12963
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 3.255,
        "predicted_H": 5.432,
        "predicted_BB": 1.742,
        "predicted_SO": 5.6,
        "predicted_HR": 0.698,
        "predicted_ERA": 5.6797,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3907
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4312,
      "form_weight": 0.5688,
      "form_reliability": 0.8077,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 21.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8077,
        "prior_weight": 0.1923
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.1,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 3.255,
          "final": 3.5763,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 5.432,
          "final": 6.1082,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 1.742,
          "final": 2.2845,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 5.6,
          "final": 3.185,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 0.698,
          "final": 1.2595,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 5.6797,
          "final": 5.6797,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3907,
          "final": 1.3907,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 52.1,
        "ER": 31,
        "H": 51,
        "BB": 17,
        "SO": 61,
        "HR": 8,
        "ERA": 5.331210191082803,
        "WHIP": 1.299363057324841,
        "K9": 10.490445859872612,
        "HR9": 1.3757961783439492,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 1,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-07T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.1021817674461492,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 7.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 0.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 21.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8077,
          "prior_weight": 0.1923
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 4,
          "predicted_H": 7,
          "predicted_BB": 3,
          "predicted_SO": 0,
          "predicted_HR": 2
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "687570",
      "player_name": "Connor Prielipp",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "MIN",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 0.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 0.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": -0.3333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0625,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": -0.3333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0625,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 0.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 7.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": -0.3333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0625,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": -0.3333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0625,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "MIN",
        "games": 147,
        "wins": 69,
        "losses": 78,
        "win_pct": 0.4694,
        "runs_scored": 677.0,
        "runs_allowed": 733.0,
        "run_differential": -56.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.381,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.6054,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9864,
        "offense_index": 1.023,
        "defense_index": 0.9028,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.1,
          "run_differential": 0.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1076
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "CLE",
        "games": 148,
        "wins": 75,
        "losses": 73,
        "win_pct": 0.5068,
        "runs_scored": 603.0,
        "runs_allowed": 616.0,
        "run_differential": -13.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.0878,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0743,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1622,
        "offense_index": 0.9051,
        "defense_index": 1.0816,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.6,
          "run_differential": -16.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0049
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.1027,
        "offense_edge": 0.023,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0949,
        "defense_strength": -0.0972,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0816,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9968,
        "run_prevention": 0.9997,
        "strikeout": 1.0045
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "687570",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "687570",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 446.0,
            "k_percent": 24.8,
            "bb_percent": 8.6,
            "woba": 0.329,
            "xwoba": 0.313,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.5,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 42.1,
            "avg_best_speed": 80.5154,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.3947,
            "whiff_percent": 24.3,
            "swing_percent": 47.2
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 130.5,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.3165,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6397,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9178,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.2211,
            "command_and_miss": 0.175,
            "regression_edge": 0.4571,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.0571,
            "barrel_edge": -0.0444,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.5857,
            "whiff_edge": -0.1,
            "bb_edge": 0.15,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0093
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "687570",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 87,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 87,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.015043469333,
              "release_spin_rate": 2596.2713725880703,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 87,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.015043469333,
                "release_spin_rate": 2596.2713725880703,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.015,
              "release_spin_rate": 2596.2714,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0093,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.0664,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.0319,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0027,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.012,
          "walk_factor": 0.988,
          "homer_factor": 1.0287,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.016,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "687570",
            "espn_id": 4620001,
            "player_name": "Connor Prielipp",
            "team": "MIN",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 689,
            "espn_total_ranked": 859,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 689,
              "gp_value": 21.0,
              "gp_rank": 380,
              "gs_value": 19.0,
              "gs_rank": 105,
              "qs_value": 3.0,
              "qs_rank": 141,
              "era_value": 5.25,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 4.0,
              "w_rank": 190,
              "l_value": 7.0,
              "l_rank": 85,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 250,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 353,
              "ip_value": 108.0,
              "ip_rank": 115,
              "h_value": 107.0,
              "h_rank": 110,
              "er_value": 63.0,
              "er_rank": 56,
              "hr_value": 14.0,
              "hr_rank": 109,
              "bb_value": 40.0,
              "bb_rank": 86,
              "k_value": 116.0,
              "k_rank": 79,
              "k_per_9_value": 9.666667,
              "k_per_9_rank": 18.0,
              "whip_value": 1.3611,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": -0.25,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0027,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0027,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.988,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0287,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.012,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 7,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 0,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 26,
      "Pitches": 104,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was -2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260912_CLE@MIN.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260912

20260912_COL@DET

away

Tanner Gordon

True

5.0

4.0

-3

5/10

1/1

10/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 5.4,
      "WHIP": 1.425,
      "IP": 93.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 21,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.0,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.4,
      "last_start_IP": 4.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.2419,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0206,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9646,
      "walk_factor": 0.9,
      "homer_factor": 1.0853,
      "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 18.7,
      "bb_percent": 4.2,
      "woba": 0.368,
      "xwoba": 0.323,
      "barrel_percent": 10.0,
      "hard_hit_percent": 42.1,
      "whiff_percent": 22.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 197,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 21.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8077,
        "prior_weight": 0.1923
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "685299",
      "report_date": "20260912",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 21,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 26.0,
            "ER": 12.0,
            "R": 12.0,
            "H": 29.0,
            "BB": 4.0,
            "SO": 18.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 109.0,
            "Pitches": 375.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 5.8,
            "BB": 0.8,
            "SO": 3.6,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 21.8,
            "Pitches": 75.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.1538,
            "WHIP": 1.2692,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.46154,
            "H_per_IP": 1.11538,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.15385,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.69231,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07692
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 48.0,
            "ER": 21.0,
            "R": 23.0,
            "H": 54.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 30.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 201.0,
            "Pitches": 663.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.1,
            "R": 2.3,
            "H": 5.4,
            "BB": 0.7,
            "SO": 3.0,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 20.1,
            "Pitches": 66.3
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.9375,
            "WHIP": 1.2708,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.4375,
            "H_per_IP": 1.125,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.14583,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.625,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.125
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 21,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 93.1,
            "ER": 56.0,
            "R": 58.0,
            "H": 116.0,
            "BB": 17.0,
            "SO": 76.0,
            "HR": 17.0,
            "BF": 406.0,
            "Pitches": 1423.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 2.6667,
            "R": 2.7619,
            "H": 5.5238,
            "BB": 0.8095,
            "SO": 3.619,
            "HR": 0.8095,
            "BF": 19.3333,
            "Pitches": 67.7619
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.4,
            "WHIP": 1.425,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.6,
            "H_per_IP": 1.24286,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.18214,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.81429,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.18214
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.418,
        "predicted_H": 5.538,
        "predicted_BB": 0.986,
        "predicted_SO": 3.692,
        "predicted_HR": 0.602,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.3663,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3091
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4312,
      "form_weight": 0.5688,
      "form_reliability": 0.8077,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 21.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8077,
        "prior_weight": 0.1923
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.1,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.418,
          "final": 2.669,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.538,
          "final": 5.306,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.986,
          "final": 0.992,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 10.0,
          "form": 3.692,
          "final": 6.4123,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.602,
          "final": 0.7736,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.3663,
          "final": 4.3663,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3091,
          "final": 1.3091,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 48.0,
        "ER": 21,
        "H": 54,
        "BB": 7,
        "SO": 30,
        "HR": 6,
        "ERA": 3.9375,
        "WHIP": 1.2708333333333333,
        "K9": 5.625,
        "HR9": 1.125,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 1,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-06T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9446761278495461,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 10.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 21.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8077,
          "prior_weight": 0.1923
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 5,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 10,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "685299",
      "player_name": "Tanner Gordon",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "COL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 10.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 10.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": -0.3333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0625,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 10.0,
              "after": 10.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": -0.3333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0625,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 10.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
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              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 10.0,
              "after": 10.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            "delta": -0.3333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0625,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 10.0,
            "after": 10.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
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          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
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            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "COL",
        "games": 147,
        "wins": 55,
        "losses": 92,
        "win_pct": 0.3741,
        "runs_scored": 688.0,
        "runs_allowed": 846.0,
        "run_differential": -158.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.0748,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.6803,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.7551,
        "offense_index": 1.0397,
        "defense_index": 0.7822,
        "current_streak": "L5",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.0,
          "run_differential": -16.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.3083
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "DET",
        "games": 147,
        "wins": 68,
        "losses": 79,
        "win_pct": 0.4626,
        "runs_scored": 647.0,
        "runs_allowed": 588.0,
        "run_differential": 59.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.4014,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4014,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0,
        "offense_index": 0.9777,
        "defense_index": 1.1254,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6,
          "run_differential": 4.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0173
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.3256,
        "offense_edge": 0.0397,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0223,
        "defense_strength": -0.2178,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1254,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9813,
        "run_prevention": 1.0345,
        "strikeout": 0.992
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "685299",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "685299",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 377.0,
            "k_percent": 18.7,
            "bb_percent": 4.2,
            "woba": 0.368,
            "xwoba": 0.323,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.4,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 10.0,
            "hard_hit_percent": 42.1,
            "avg_best_speed": 80.9796,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.534,
            "whiff_percent": 22.1,
            "swing_percent": 53.2
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 130.5,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.3165,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6397,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9178,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
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          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.6029,
            "command_and_miss": -0.1071,
            "regression_edge": 1.2857,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.3429,
            "barrel_edge": -0.6444,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.5857,
            "whiff_edge": -0.4143,
            "bb_edge": 1.25,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0627
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "685299",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 68,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 68,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.72938964890997,
              "release_spin_rate": 2168.4774054367754,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 68,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.72938964890997,
                "release_spin_rate": 2168.4774054367754,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.7294,
              "release_spin_rate": 2168.4774,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0627,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.4478,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.2419,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0206,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9646,
          "walk_factor": 0.9,
          "homer_factor": 1.0853,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.045,
          "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "685299",
            "espn_id": 4415658,
            "player_name": "Tanner Gordon",
            "team": "COL",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 197,
            "espn_total_ranked": 859,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 197,
              "gp_value": 21.0,
              "gp_rank": 380,
              "gs_value": 9.0,
              "gs_rank": 180,
              "qs_value": 1.0,
              "qs_rank": 178,
              "era_value": 5.4,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 1.0,
              "w_rank": 414,
              "l_value": 4.0,
              "l_rank": 189,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 250,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 353,
              "ip_value": 93.1,
              "ip_rank": 138,
              "h_value": 116.0,
              "h_rank": 90,
              "er_value": 56.0,
              "er_rank": 84,
              "hr_value": 17.0,
              "hr_rank": 71,
              "bb_value": 17.0,
              "bb_rank": 347,
              "k_value": 76.0,
              "k_rank": 161,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.328572,
              "k_per_9_rank": 31.0,
              "whip_value": 1.425,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.9,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0206,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 1.0206,
            "adjusted": 7
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0853,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9646,
            "adjusted": 3
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 10,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 94,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 5",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +5."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260912_COL@DET.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260912

20260912_COL@DET

home

Andrew Sears

True

4.0

4.1

2/7

5/1

7/5

Last 10 before this game (3 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.378378378378378,
      "WHIP": 1.2162162162162162,
      "IP": 12.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 3,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.667,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.667,
      "last_start_IP": 5.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.134,
      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9886,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9887,
      "walk_factor": 0.9703,
      "homer_factor": 0.9535,
      "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 15.7,
      "bb_percent": 5.9,
      "woba": 0.324,
      "xwoba": 0.28,
      "barrel_percent": 5.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 30.8,
      "whiff_percent": 26.9
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 427,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 1.0
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 3.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.375,
        "prior_weight": 0.625
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "808825",
      "report_date": "20260912",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 3,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 3,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 12.1,
            "ER": 6.0,
            "R": 6.0,
            "H": 12.0,
            "BB": 3.0,
            "SO": 8.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 51.0,
            "Pitches": 209.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.0,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 4.0,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 2.6667,
            "HR": 0.3333,
            "BF": 17.0,
            "Pitches": 69.6667
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.3784,
            "WHIP": 1.2162,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.48649,
            "H_per_IP": 0.97297,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.24324,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.64865,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08108
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 3,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 12.1,
            "ER": 6.0,
            "R": 6.0,
            "H": 12.0,
            "BB": 3.0,
            "SO": 8.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 51.0,
            "Pitches": 209.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.0,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 4.0,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 2.6667,
            "HR": 0.3333,
            "BF": 17.0,
            "Pitches": 69.6667
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.3784,
            "WHIP": 1.2162,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.48649,
            "H_per_IP": 0.97297,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.24324,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.64865,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08108
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 3,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 12.1,
            "ER": 6.0,
            "R": 6.0,
            "H": 12.0,
            "BB": 3.0,
            "SO": 8.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 51.0,
            "Pitches": 209.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.0,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 4.0,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 2.6667,
            "HR": 0.3333,
            "BF": 17.0,
            "Pitches": 69.6667
          },
          "rates": {
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      "blend_segments": {},
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        "predicted_ER": {
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        "predicted_BB": {
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        "predicted_SO": {
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        "predicted_HR": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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        "predicted_WHIP": {
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
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      "pitching": {
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      "fielding": {
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      "games_count": 3,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-04T00:00:00"
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    "stat_evolution": [
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        "stats": {
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "team": "DET",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
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          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
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            {
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            {
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            {
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            {
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          ],
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
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          {
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          },
          {
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          },
          {
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        ],
        "summary": {
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            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
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        "games": 147,
        "wins": 68,
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        "win_pct": 0.4626,
        "runs_scored": 647.0,
        "runs_allowed": 588.0,
        "run_differential": 59.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.4014,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4014,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0,
        "offense_index": 0.9777,
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        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
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          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6,
          "run_differential": 4.0
        },
        "available": true,
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      "opponent": {
        "team": "COL",
        "games": 147,
        "wins": 55,
        "losses": 92,
        "win_pct": 0.3741,
        "runs_scored": 688.0,
        "runs_allowed": 846.0,
        "run_differential": -158.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.0748,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.6803,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.7551,
        "offense_index": 1.0397,
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        "current_streak": "L5",
        "recent": {
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          "avg_runs_scored": 4.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.0,
          "run_differential": -16.0
        },
        "available": true,
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      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.3256,
        "offense_edge": -0.0223,
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        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
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      "player_factors": {
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        "strikeout": 1.0066
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "808825",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "808825",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 28.0,
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            "woba": 0.324,
            "xwoba": 0.28,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 5.1,
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            "avg_best_speed": 81.7548,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.5225,
            "whiff_percent": 26.9,
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          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 130.5,
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            "woba": 0.3165,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
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            "avg_best_speed": 77.6397,
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            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
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          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.3837,
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            "regression_edge": 1.2571,
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "808825",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 58,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 58,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.68487773487773,
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              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
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                "pitches": 58,
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                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
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                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.6849,
              "release_spin_rate": 2192.3793,
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              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
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              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
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            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0652,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
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              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.134,
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          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9886,
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          "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_name": "Andrew Sears",
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            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 427,
            "espn_total_ranked": 859,
            "metrics": {
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              "gp_value": 3.0,
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              "qs_value": 0.0,
              "qs_rank": 210,
              "era_value": 4.3783,
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              "w_value": 0.0,
              "w_rank": 535,
              "l_value": 1.0,
              "l_rank": 429,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 250,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 353,
              "ip_value": 12.1,
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              "h_value": 12.0,
              "h_rank": 607,
              "er_value": 6.0,
              "er_rank": 633,
              "hr_value": 1.0,
              "hr_rank": 614,
              "bb_value": 3.0,
              "bb_rank": 683,
              "k_value": 8.0,
              "k_rank": 625,
              "k_per_9_value": 5.8378377,
              "k_per_9_rank": 28.0,
              "whip_value": 1.2162,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.07,
              "war_rank": null
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            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9949,
            "adjusted": 1
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          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9949,
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          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
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          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9949,
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      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.0,
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      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 19,
      "Pitches": 88,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
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  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 3 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 5",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +5."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -4."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260912_COL@DET.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260912

20260912_HOU@TB

away

Peter Lambert

True

5.1

6.0

2/6

0/0

3/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.6730310262529837,
      "WHIP": 1.2315035799522673,
      "IP": 139.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 25,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.587,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.2,
      "last_start_IP": 7.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.194,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9835,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0097,
      "walk_factor": 1.004,
      "homer_factor": 0.9635,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 23.0,
      "bb_percent": 9.4,
      "woba": 0.295,
      "xwoba": 0.296,
      "barrel_percent": 6.7,
      "hard_hit_percent": 35.1,
      "whiff_percent": 25.7
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 34,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 25.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8333,
        "prior_weight": 0.1667
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "663567",
      "report_date": "20260912",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 25,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 26.0,
            "ER": 18.0,
            "R": 19.0,
            "H": 29.0,
            "BB": 12.0,
            "SO": 26.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 123.0,
            "Pitches": 479.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 3.6,
            "R": 3.8,
            "H": 5.8,
            "BB": 2.4,
            "SO": 5.2,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 24.6,
            "Pitches": 95.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.2308,
            "WHIP": 1.5769,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.69231,
            "H_per_IP": 1.11538,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.46154,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.0,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07692
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 53.2,
            "ER": 27.0,
            "R": 29.0,
            "H": 53.0,
            "BB": 23.0,
            "SO": 56.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 241.0,
            "Pitches": 942.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.7,
            "R": 2.9,
            "H": 5.3,
            "BB": 2.3,
            "SO": 5.6,
            "HR": 0.3,
            "BF": 24.1,
            "Pitches": 94.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.528,
            "WHIP": 1.4161,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.50311,
            "H_per_IP": 0.98758,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.42857,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.04348,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0559
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 25,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 139.2,
            "ER": 57.0,
            "R": 59.0,
            "H": 116.0,
            "BB": 56.0,
            "SO": 137.0,
            "HR": 14.0,
            "BF": 595.0,
            "Pitches": 2368.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.28,
            "R": 2.36,
            "H": 4.64,
            "BB": 2.24,
            "SO": 5.48,
            "HR": 0.56,
            "BF": 23.8,
            "Pitches": 94.72
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.673,
            "WHIP": 1.2315,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.40811,
            "H_per_IP": 0.83055,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.40095,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.98091,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10024
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 3.008,
        "predicted_H": 5.426,
        "predicted_BB": 2.299,
        "predicted_SO": 5.387,
        "predicted_HR": 0.464,
        "predicted_ERA": 5.0243,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.4335
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4204,
      "form_weight": 0.5796,
      "form_reliability": 0.8333,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 25.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8333,
        "prior_weight": 0.1667
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.1,
          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 3.008,
          "final": 2.1638,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 5.426,
          "final": 3.9856,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 2.299,
          "final": 1.3324,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 5.387,
          "final": 4.3834,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.464,
          "final": 0.6894,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 5.0243,
          "final": 5.0243,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.4335,
          "final": 1.4335,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 53.2,
        "ER": 27,
        "H": 53,
        "BB": 23,
        "SO": 56,
        "HR": 3,
        "ERA": 4.527950310559006,
        "WHIP": 1.4161490683229812,
        "K9": 9.391304347826086,
        "HR9": 0.5031055900621118,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-06T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0147346811621756,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 3.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 25.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8333,
          "prior_weight": 0.1667
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "663567",
      "player_name": "Peter Lambert",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "HOU",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.1,
            "predicted_R": 1.0,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0438,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0438,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0437,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0437,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "HOU",
        "games": 148,
        "wins": 75,
        "losses": 73,
        "win_pct": 0.5068,
        "runs_scored": 663.0,
        "runs_allowed": 705.0,
        "run_differential": -42.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2838,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4797,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7635,
        "offense_index": 0.9951,
        "defense_index": 0.945,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.5,
          "run_differential": -2.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0289
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "TB",
        "games": 147,
        "wins": 88,
        "losses": 59,
        "win_pct": 0.5986,
        "runs_scored": 665.0,
        "runs_allowed": 607.0,
        "run_differential": 58.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.3946,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5238,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1293,
        "offense_index": 1.0049,
        "defense_index": 1.0902,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2,
          "run_differential": 5.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.167
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.1959,
        "offense_edge": -0.0049,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0049,
        "defense_strength": -0.055,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0902,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9903,
        "run_prevention": 1.0161,
        "strikeout": 0.9937
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "663567",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "663567",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 564.0,
            "k_percent": 23.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.4,
            "woba": 0.295,
            "xwoba": 0.296,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.1,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.7,
            "hard_hit_percent": 35.1,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.7426,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.4279,
            "whiff_percent": 25.7,
            "swing_percent": 48.5
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 130.5,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.3165,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6397,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9178,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.3138,
            "command_and_miss": 0.0893,
            "regression_edge": -0.0286,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.4286,
            "barrel_edge": 0.0889,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.4143,
            "whiff_edge": 0.1,
            "bb_edge": -0.05,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0261
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "663567",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 95,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 95,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.38302035315365,
              "release_spin_rate": 2206.0158035592112,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 95,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.38302035315365,
                "release_spin_rate": 2206.0158035592112,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.383,
              "release_spin_rate": 2206.0158,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0261,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.1864,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.194,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9835,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0097,
          "walk_factor": 1.004,
          "homer_factor": 0.9635,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.001,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "663567",
            "espn_id": 39898,
            "player_name": "Peter Lambert",
            "team": "HOU",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 34,
            "espn_total_ranked": 859,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 34,
              "gp_value": 25.0,
              "gp_rank": 327,
              "gs_value": 25.0,
              "gs_rank": 64,
              "qs_value": 9.0,
              "qs_rank": 65,
              "era_value": 3.673,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 8.0,
              "w_rank": 65,
              "l_value": 8.0,
              "l_rank": 62,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 250,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 353,
              "ip_value": 139.2,
              "ip_rank": 60,
              "h_value": 116.0,
              "h_rank": 90,
              "er_value": 57.0,
              "er_rank": 77,
              "hr_value": 14.0,
              "hr_rank": 109,
              "bb_value": 56.0,
              "bb_rank": 23,
              "k_value": 137.0,
              "k_rank": 49,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.828162,
              "k_per_9_rank": 22.0,
              "whip_value": 1.2315,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 3.01,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9835,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9835,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.004,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9635,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0097,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 3,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 18,
      "Pitches": 85,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +2."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +4."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260912_HOU@TB.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260912

20260912_HOU@TB

home

Ian Seymour

True

5.0

6.0

2/4

3/1

6/10

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.9455587392550147,
      "WHIP": 1.1174785100286533,
      "IP": 116.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 42,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.692,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.267,
      "last_start_IP": 3.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.2928,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9751,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0629,
      "walk_factor": 0.952,
      "homer_factor": 1.0276,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 28.8,
      "bb_percent": 6.8,
      "woba": 0.313,
      "xwoba": 0.295,
      "barrel_percent": 10.0,
      "hard_hit_percent": 36.2,
      "whiff_percent": 29.2
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 320,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 23.472,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8244,
        "prior_weight": 0.1756
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "693855",
      "report_date": "20260912",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 42,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 26.0,
            "ER": 15.0,
            "R": 17.0,
            "H": 30.0,
            "BB": 3.0,
            "SO": 34.0,
            "HR": 9.0,
            "BF": 113.0,
            "Pitches": 434.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.4,
            "H": 6.0,
            "BB": 0.6,
            "SO": 6.8,
            "HR": 1.8,
            "BF": 22.6,
            "Pitches": 86.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.1923,
            "WHIP": 1.2692,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.57692,
            "H_per_IP": 1.15385,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.11538,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.30769,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.34615
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 51.2,
            "ER": 23.0,
            "R": 25.0,
            "H": 51.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 65.0,
            "HR": 12.0,
            "BF": 216.0,
            "Pitches": 841.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.3,
            "R": 2.5,
            "H": 5.1,
            "BB": 0.9,
            "SO": 6.5,
            "HR": 1.2,
            "BF": 21.6,
            "Pitches": 84.1
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.0065,
            "WHIP": 1.1613,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.44516,
            "H_per_IP": 0.9871,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.17419,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.25806,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.23226
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 42,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 116.1,
            "ER": 51.0,
            "R": 56.0,
            "H": 97.0,
            "BB": 33.0,
            "SO": 140.0,
            "HR": 22.0,
            "BF": 481.0,
            "Pitches": 1876.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 2.2,
            "ER": 1.2143,
            "R": 1.3333,
            "H": 2.3095,
            "BB": 0.7857,
            "SO": 3.3333,
            "HR": 0.5238,
            "BF": 11.4524,
            "Pitches": 44.6667
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.9456,
            "WHIP": 1.1175,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.4384,
            "H_per_IP": 0.83381,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.28367,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.20344,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.18911
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.433,
        "predicted_H": 4.937,
        "predicted_BB": 0.991,
        "predicted_SO": 5.859,
        "predicted_HR": 1.22,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.5283,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2261
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4242,
      "form_weight": 0.5758,
      "form_reliability": 0.8244,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 23.472,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8244,
        "prior_weight": 0.1756
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.433,
          "final": 2.2493,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 4.937,
          "final": 3.6912,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 0.991,
          "final": 1.8432,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.859,
          "final": 5.4946,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.22,
          "final": 0.7025,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.5283,
          "final": 4.5283,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2261,
          "final": 1.2261,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 51.2,
        "ER": 23,
        "H": 51,
        "BB": 9,
        "SO": 65,
        "HR": 12,
        "ERA": 4.006451612903225,
        "WHIP": 1.161290322580645,
        "K9": 11.32258064516129,
        "HR9": 2.0903225806451613,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 5,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-06T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9496946090323417,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 23.472,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8244,
          "prior_weight": 0.1756
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 2,
          "predicted_BB": 3,
          "predicted_SO": 6,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "693855",
      "player_name": "Ian Seymour",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "TB",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "better_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "percent_delta": null,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.2,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_boost": {
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            "biggest_deboost": null
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          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
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            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            {
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
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          {
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          {
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          {
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.2,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
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          "biggest_boost": {
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          },
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "TB",
        "games": 147,
        "wins": 88,
        "losses": 59,
        "win_pct": 0.5986,
        "runs_scored": 665.0,
        "runs_allowed": 607.0,
        "run_differential": 58.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.3946,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5238,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1293,
        "offense_index": 1.0049,
        "defense_index": 1.0902,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
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          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2,
          "run_differential": 5.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.167
      },
      "opponent": {
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        "losses": 73,
        "win_pct": 0.5068,
        "runs_scored": 663.0,
        "runs_allowed": 705.0,
        "run_differential": -42.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2838,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4797,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7635,
        "offense_index": 0.9951,
        "defense_index": 0.945,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.5,
          "run_differential": -2.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0289
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.1959,
        "offense_edge": 0.0049,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0049,
        "defense_strength": 0.0902,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.055,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0107,
        "run_prevention": 0.9804,
        "strikeout": 1.0063
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "693855",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "693855",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 461.0,
            "k_percent": 28.8,
            "bb_percent": 6.8,
            "woba": 0.313,
            "xwoba": 0.295,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 35.6,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 10.0,
            "hard_hit_percent": 36.2,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.0506,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.7092,
            "whiff_percent": 29.2,
            "swing_percent": 51.1
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 130.5,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.3165,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6397,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9178,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.1049,
            "command_and_miss": 0.7671,
            "regression_edge": 0.5143,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.4571,
            "barrel_edge": -0.6444,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.2571,
            "whiff_edge": 0.6,
            "bb_edge": 0.6,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.211
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "693855",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 91,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 91,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 86.08029224449054,
              "release_spin_rate": 1966.9009259620518,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 91,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 86.08029224449054,
                "release_spin_rate": 1966.9009259620518,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 86.0803,
              "release_spin_rate": 1966.9009,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.211,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.5075,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.2928,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9751,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0629,
          "walk_factor": 0.952,
          "homer_factor": 1.0276,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.018,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "693855",
            "espn_id": 4669425,
            "player_name": "Ian Seymour",
            "team": "TB",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 320,
            "espn_total_ranked": 859,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 320,
              "gp_value": 43.0,
              "gp_rank": 151,
              "gs_value": 13.0,
              "gs_rank": 155,
              "qs_value": 5.0,
              "qs_rank": 109,
              "era_value": 4.3323,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 9.0,
              "w_rank": 44,
              "l_value": 6.0,
              "l_rank": 113,
              "sv_value": 2.0,
              "sv_rank": 93,
              "hld_value": 10.0,
              "hld_rank": 85,
              "ip_value": 116.1,
              "ip_rank": 98,
              "h_value": 102.0,
              "h_rank": 115,
              "er_value": 56.0,
              "er_rank": 84,
              "hr_value": 22.0,
              "hr_rank": 27,
              "bb_value": 33.0,
              "bb_rank": 140,
              "k_value": 140.0,
              "k_rank": 43,
              "k_per_9_value": 10.830945,
              "k_per_9_rank": 11.0,
              "whip_value": 1.1604,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.26,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9751,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9751,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.952,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0276,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 1.0629,
            "adjusted": 7
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 93,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260912_HOU@TB.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260912

20260912_KC@BOS

away

Randy Dobnak

True

6.0

5.2

-1

4/4

1/0

5/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.5445026178010473,
      "WHIP": 1.3193717277486912,
      "IP": 63.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 12,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.4,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.533,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.3748,
      "sample_weight": 0.98,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0319,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9384,
      "walk_factor": 0.9882,
      "homer_factor": 0.9965,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 16.0,
      "bb_percent": 8.6,
      "woba": 0.307,
      "xwoba": 0.335,
      "barrel_percent": 5.0,
      "hard_hit_percent": 40.3,
      "whiff_percent": 20.0
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 70,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 6.0,
      "season_IP": 63.2,
      "season_ERA": 2.545,
      "season_WHIP": 1.319,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 12.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7059,
        "prior_weight": 0.2941
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "677976",
      "report_date": "20260912",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 12,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 27.2,
            "ER": 10.0,
            "R": 10.0,
            "H": 27.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 24.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 115.0,
            "Pitches": 451.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 5.4,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 4.8,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 23.0,
            "Pitches": 90.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.253,
            "WHIP": 1.3012,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.36145,
            "H_per_IP": 0.9759,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.3253,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.86747,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.14458
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 54.0,
            "ER": 16.0,
            "R": 16.0,
            "H": 52.0,
            "BB": 19.0,
            "SO": 39.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 227.0,
            "Pitches": 908.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 1.6,
            "R": 1.6,
            "H": 5.2,
            "BB": 1.9,
            "SO": 3.9,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 22.7,
            "Pitches": 90.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.6667,
            "WHIP": 1.3148,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.2963,
            "H_per_IP": 0.96296,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.35185,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.72222,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09259
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 12,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 63.2,
            "ER": 18.0,
            "R": 18.0,
            "H": 61.0,
            "BB": 23.0,
            "SO": 43.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 268.0,
            "Pitches": 1067.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 1.5,
            "R": 1.5,
            "H": 5.0833,
            "BB": 1.9167,
            "SO": 3.5833,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 22.3333,
            "Pitches": 88.9167
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.5445,
            "WHIP": 1.3194,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.28272,
            "H_per_IP": 0.95812,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.36126,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.67539,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09424
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.119,
        "predicted_H": 5.462,
        "predicted_BB": 1.974,
        "predicted_SO": 4.655,
        "predicted_HR": 0.705,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.3837,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3195
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4743,
      "form_weight": 0.5257,
      "form_reliability": 0.7059,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 12.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7059,
        "prior_weight": 0.2941
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.119,
          "final": 2.5368,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 5.462,
          "final": 4.7686,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.974,
          "final": 1.5121,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 4.655,
          "final": 4.3444,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.705,
          "final": 0.8449,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.3837,
          "final": 3.3837,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3195,
          "final": 1.3195,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 54.0,
        "ER": 16,
        "H": 52,
        "BB": 19,
        "SO": 39,
        "HR": 5,
        "ERA": 2.6666666666666665,
        "WHIP": 1.3148148148148147,
        "K9": 6.499999999999999,
        "HR9": 0.8333333333333333,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-06T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8028069148865832,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 12.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7059,
          "prior_weight": 0.2941
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 4,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 5,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "677976",
      "player_name": "Randy Dobnak",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "KC",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.25,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 1,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.25,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
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            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
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              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.25,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
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          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": {
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            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "KC",
        "games": 148,
        "wins": 66,
        "losses": 82,
        "win_pct": 0.4459,
        "runs_scored": 632.0,
        "runs_allowed": 719.0,
        "run_differential": -87.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.5878,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.2703,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.8581,
        "offense_index": 0.9486,
        "defense_index": 0.9266,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6,
          "run_differential": -4.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1528
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "BOS",
        "games": 148,
        "wins": 80,
        "losses": 68,
        "win_pct": 0.5405,
        "runs_scored": 654.0,
        "runs_allowed": 573.0,
        "run_differential": 81.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.5473,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4189,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8716,
        "offense_index": 0.9816,
        "defense_index": 1.1627,
        "current_streak": "L3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0,
          "run_differential": -4.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1013
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.2541,
        "offense_edge": -0.0514,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0184,
        "defense_strength": -0.0734,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1627,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9884,
        "run_prevention": 1.0171,
        "strikeout": 0.9938
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "677976",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "677976",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 245.0,
            "k_percent": 16.0,
            "bb_percent": 8.6,
            "woba": 0.307,
            "xwoba": 0.335,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.8,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 5.0,
            "hard_hit_percent": 40.3,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.5709,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.7259,
            "whiff_percent": 20.0,
            "swing_percent": 45.9
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 130.5,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.3165,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6397,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9178,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.2393,
            "command_and_miss": -0.6057,
            "regression_edge": -0.8,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.6857,
            "barrel_edge": 0.4667,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.3286,
            "whiff_edge": -0.7143,
            "bb_edge": 0.15,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.1369
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "677976",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 92,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 92,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 87.4049729490764,
              "release_spin_rate": 2025.628037316801,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 92,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 87.4049729490764,
                "release_spin_rate": 2025.628037316801,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.405,
              "release_spin_rate": 2025.628,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1369,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.9776,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.3748,
          "sample_weight": 0.98,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0319,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9384,
          "walk_factor": 0.9882,
          "homer_factor": 0.9965,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.028,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "677976",
            "espn_id": 42214,
            "player_name": "Randy Dobnak",
            "team": "KC",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 70,
            "espn_total_ranked": 859,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 70,
              "gp_value": 12.0,
              "gp_rank": 497,
              "gs_value": 10.0,
              "gs_rank": 172,
              "qs_value": 3.0,
              "qs_rank": 141,
              "era_value": 2.5445,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 3.0,
              "w_rank": 246,
              "l_value": 3.0,
              "l_rank": 243,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 250,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 353,
              "ip_value": 63.2,
              "ip_rank": 213,
              "h_value": 61.0,
              "h_rank": 192,
              "er_value": 18.0,
              "er_rank": 360,
              "hr_value": 6.0,
              "hr_rank": 271,
              "bb_value": 23.0,
              "bb_rank": 248,
              "k_value": 43.0,
              "k_rank": 334,
              "k_per_9_value": 6.0785336,
              "k_per_9_rank": 42.0,
              "whip_value": 1.3193,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 2.03,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0313,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0313,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9884,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9966,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9396,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 93,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: True; actual quality start: False."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260912_KC@BOS.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260912

20260912_KC@BOS

home

Ranger Suarez

True

5.1

7.0

-2

5/5

1/0

7/8

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "ERA": 3.4438775510204085,
      "WHIP": 1.2168367346938775,
      "IP": 130.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 25,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.227,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.533,
      "last_start_IP": 7.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.177,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.985,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.984,
      "walk_factor": 0.964,
      "homer_factor": 0.9277,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 22.5,
      "bb_percent": 7.4,
      "woba": 0.291,
      "xwoba": 0.298,
      "barrel_percent": 5.3,
      "hard_hit_percent": 32.9,
      "whiff_percent": 21.7
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 69,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 25.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8333,
        "prior_weight": 0.1667
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "624133",
      "report_date": "20260912",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 25,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 27.2,
            "ER": 12.0,
            "R": 12.0,
            "H": 28.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 14.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 119.0,
            "Pitches": 459.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 5.6,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 2.8,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 23.8,
            "Pitches": 91.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.9036,
            "WHIP": 1.3735,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.43373,
            "H_per_IP": 1.01205,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.36145,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.50602,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07229
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 48.0,
            "ER": 24.0,
            "R": 25.0,
            "H": 50.0,
            "BB": 15.0,
            "SO": 38.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 206.0,
            "Pitches": 806.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.5,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 1.5,
            "SO": 3.8,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 20.6,
            "Pitches": 80.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.5,
            "WHIP": 1.3542,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.5,
            "H_per_IP": 1.04167,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.3125,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.79167,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08333
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 25,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 130.2,
            "ER": 50.0,
            "R": 53.0,
            "H": 119.0,
            "BB": 40.0,
            "SO": 122.0,
            "HR": 8.0,
            "BF": 543.0,
            "Pitches": 2104.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.12,
            "H": 4.76,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 4.88,
            "HR": 0.32,
            "BF": 21.72,
            "Pitches": 84.16
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.4439,
            "WHIP": 1.2168,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.38265,
            "H_per_IP": 0.91071,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.30612,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.93367,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.06122
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.401,
        "predicted_H": 5.249,
        "predicted_BB": 1.787,
        "predicted_SO": 3.859,
        "predicted_HR": 0.452,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.1053,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3367
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4204,
      "form_weight": 0.5796,
      "form_reliability": 0.8333,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 25.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8333,
        "prior_weight": 0.1667
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.1,
          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.401,
          "final": 2.6528,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.249,
          "final": 5.1443,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.787,
          "final": 1.4561,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 3.859,
          "final": 5.1796,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.452,
          "final": 0.262,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.1053,
          "final": 4.1053,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3367,
          "final": 1.3367,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 48.0,
        "ER": 24,
        "H": 50,
        "BB": 15,
        "SO": 38,
        "HR": 4,
        "ERA": 4.500000000000001,
        "WHIP": 1.354166666666667,
        "K9": 7.125000000000001,
        "HR9": 0.7500000000000001,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 2,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-04T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0100407111828795,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 7.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 25.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8333,
          "prior_weight": 0.1667
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "624133",
      "player_name": "Ranger Suarez",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "BOS",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.1,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0438,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0438,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0437,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 7.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0437,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "BOS",
        "games": 148,
        "wins": 80,
        "losses": 68,
        "win_pct": 0.5405,
        "runs_scored": 654.0,
        "runs_allowed": 573.0,
        "run_differential": 81.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.5473,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4189,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8716,
        "offense_index": 0.9816,
        "defense_index": 1.1627,
        "current_streak": "L3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0,
          "run_differential": -4.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1013
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "KC",
        "games": 148,
        "wins": 66,
        "losses": 82,
        "win_pct": 0.4459,
        "runs_scored": 632.0,
        "runs_allowed": 719.0,
        "run_differential": -87.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.5878,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.2703,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.8581,
        "offense_index": 0.9486,
        "defense_index": 0.9266,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6,
          "run_differential": -4.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1528
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.2541,
        "offense_edge": -0.0184,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0514,
        "defense_strength": 0.1627,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0734,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0171,
        "run_prevention": 0.9628,
        "strikeout": 1.0117
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "624133",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "624133",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 515.0,
            "k_percent": 22.5,
            "bb_percent": 7.4,
            "woba": 0.291,
            "xwoba": 0.298,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 37.2,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 5.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 32.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 75.0843,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.1356,
            "whiff_percent": 21.7,
            "swing_percent": 45.5
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 130.5,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.3165,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6397,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9178,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.4029,
            "command_and_miss": -0.0429,
            "regression_edge": -0.2,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.3714,
            "barrel_edge": 0.4,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.7286,
            "whiff_edge": -0.4714,
            "bb_edge": 0.45,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.2192
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "624133",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 87,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 87,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 85.93430222056823,
              "release_spin_rate": 1973.0652526093884,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 87,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 85.93430222056823,
                "release_spin_rate": 1973.0652526093884,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 85.9343,
              "release_spin_rate": 1973.0653,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.2192,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.5659,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.177,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.985,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.984,
          "walk_factor": 0.964,
          "homer_factor": 0.9277,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.007,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "624133",
            "espn_id": 39817,
            "player_name": "Ranger Suarez",
            "team": "BOS",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 69,
            "espn_total_ranked": 859,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 69,
              "gp_value": 25.0,
              "gp_rank": 327,
              "gs_value": 25.0,
              "gs_rank": 64,
              "qs_value": 8.0,
              "qs_rank": 75,
              "era_value": 3.4438,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 6.0,
              "w_rank": 108,
              "l_value": 4.0,
              "l_rank": 189,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 250,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 353,
              "ip_value": 130.2,
              "ip_rank": 84,
              "h_value": 119.0,
              "h_rank": 80,
              "er_value": 50.0,
              "er_rank": 104,
              "hr_value": 8.0,
              "hr_rank": 206,
              "bb_value": 40.0,
              "bb_rank": 86,
              "k_value": 122.0,
              "k_rank": 65,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.403061,
              "k_per_9_rank": 20.0,
              "whip_value": 1.2168,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 2.04,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.985,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.985,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.964,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9277,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.984,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 92,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260912_KC@BOS.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260912

20260912_LAA@WAS

away

Walbert Ureña

True

6.0

2/9

1/2

6/7

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.7411167512690353,
      "WHIP": 1.2106598984771573,
      "IP": 131.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 26,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.403,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.933,
      "last_start_IP": 8.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.3729,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9683,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0131,
      "walk_factor": 1.052,
      "homer_factor": 0.9358,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 22.5,
      "bb_percent": 11.8,
      "woba": 0.274,
      "xwoba": 0.286,
      "barrel_percent": 5.4,
      "hard_hit_percent": 35.8,
      "whiff_percent": 26.8
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 23,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 6.0,
      "season_IP": 131.1,
      "season_ERA": 2.741,
      "season_WHIP": 1.211,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 26.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8387,
        "prior_weight": 0.1613
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "700712",
      "report_date": "20260912",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 26,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 29.2,
            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 8.0,
            "H": 18.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 27.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 116.0,
            "Pitches": 466.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.6,
            "R": 1.6,
            "H": 3.6,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 5.4,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 23.2,
            "Pitches": 93.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.427,
            "WHIP": 0.9438,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.26966,
            "H_per_IP": 0.60674,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.33708,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.91011,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10112
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 54.0,
            "ER": 14.0,
            "R": 14.0,
            "H": 34.0,
            "BB": 24.0,
            "SO": 49.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 215.0,
            "Pitches": 885.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 1.4,
            "R": 1.4,
            "H": 3.4,
            "BB": 2.4,
            "SO": 4.9,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 21.5,
            "Pitches": 88.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.3333,
            "WHIP": 1.0741,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.25926,
            "H_per_IP": 0.62963,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.44444,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.90741,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07407
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 26,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 131.1,
            "ER": 40.0,
            "R": 47.0,
            "H": 94.0,
            "BB": 65.0,
            "SO": 124.0,
            "HR": 9.0,
            "BF": 552.0,
            "Pitches": 2208.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 1.5385,
            "R": 1.8077,
            "H": 3.6154,
            "BB": 2.5,
            "SO": 4.7692,
            "HR": 0.3462,
            "BF": 21.2308,
            "Pitches": 84.9231
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.7411,
            "WHIP": 1.2107,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.30457,
            "H_per_IP": 0.71574,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.49492,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.94416,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.06853
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 1.748,
        "predicted_H": 3.894,
        "predicted_BB": 2.257,
        "predicted_SO": 5.186,
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      },
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        {
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
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        "run_differential_per_game": -0.5034,
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      },
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      "player_factors": {
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      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "700712",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "700712",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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            "avg_best_speed": 77.6397,
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          "components": {
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          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "700712",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 85,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 85,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 94.00164107379047,
              "release_spin_rate": 2098.3450495663596,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
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              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
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            "pitch_mix": [
              {
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                "pitches": 85,
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                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
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                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 94.0016,
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            "components": {
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.3729,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
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          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_name": "Walbert Urena",
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            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 23,
            "espn_total_ranked": 859,
            "metrics": {
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              "w_value": 9.0,
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              "l_rank": 20,
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              "whip_value": 1.2106,
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              "war_rank": null
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            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
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            "factor": 0.9683,
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          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
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          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.052,
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          "predicted_HR": {
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    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
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      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 88,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +3."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 7",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +7."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: True; actual quality start: False."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260912_LAA@WAS.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260912

20260912_LAA@WAS

home

Andrew Alvarez

True

5.0

7.0

0/1

0/4

8/8

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "ERA": 3.6,
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    "espn_rank": {
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      "effective_weights": {
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      "shrinkage": {
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          },
          "per_game": {
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        },
        "last_10": {
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          },
          "per_game": {
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        },
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          },
          "per_game": {
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          "rates": {
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            "ER_per_IP": 0.4,
            "H_per_IP": 0.86316,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.45263,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.95789,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.05263
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      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
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    "model_form_blend_trace": {
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      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_size": 22.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        "predicted_ER": {
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        "predicted_SO": {
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        "predicted_HR": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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          "final": 3.5987,
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        "predicted_WHIP": {
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    "recent_form_analysis": {
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        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
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        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
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        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
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        "trend": "stable"
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      "pitching": {
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        "BB": 22,
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        "HR": 3,
        "ERA": 3.5625,
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        "HR9": 0.5625,
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        "quality_starts": 2,
        "dominant_form": false,
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      "fielding": {
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        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-06T00:00:00"
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    "recent_form_boost": 0.9014469611828795,
    "stat_evolution": [
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        "stats": {
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
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    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "674841",
      "player_name": "Andrew Alvarez",
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      "team": "WAS",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
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          "changed_metrics": [],
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          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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            {
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
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      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
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        "win_pct": 0.4564,
        "runs_scored": 760.0,
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        "run_differential": 1.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0067,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.1007,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.094,
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          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.5,
          "run_differential": -15.0
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        "available": true,
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      "opponent": {
        "team": "LAA",
        "games": 147,
        "wins": 56,
        "losses": 91,
        "win_pct": 0.381,
        "runs_scored": 594.0,
        "runs_allowed": 668.0,
        "run_differential": -74.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.5034,
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        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5442,
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          "avg_runs_scored": 3.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.1,
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        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1977
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      "edges": {
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        "offense_edge": 0.133,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.1024,
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        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
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      "player_factors": {
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        "run_prevention": 0.9907,
        "strikeout": 1.0109
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "674841",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "674841",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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            "woba": 0.3,
            "xwoba": 0.321,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.0,
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            "avg_best_speed": 77.4657,
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            "swing_percent": 44.0
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          "league_medians": {
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            "woba": 0.3165,
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            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
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            "avg_best_speed": 77.6397,
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            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
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          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.0119,
            "command_and_miss": -0.015,
            "regression_edge": -0.6,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.2857,
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            "pitch_design_score": -0.1491
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "674841",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 79,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 79,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 87.18588942540443,
              "release_spin_rate": 2497.3335449859924,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
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                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 79,
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                "release_speed": 87.18588942540443,
                "release_spin_rate": 2497.3335449859924,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
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                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.1859,
              "release_spin_rate": 2497.3335,
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              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
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            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1491,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
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              "velocity_edge": -1.0652,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.0825,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.007,
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          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_name": "Andrew Alvarez",
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            "espn_rank": 74,
            "espn_total_ranked": 859,
            "metrics": {
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              "gp_value": 22.0,
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              "era_rank": null,
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              "l_rank": 113,
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              "hld_value": 2.0,
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              "er_rank": 159,
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              "bb_rank": 69,
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              "k_per_9_value": 8.621053,
              "k_per_9_rank": 25.0,
              "whip_value": 1.3157,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 1.97,
              "war_rank": null
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            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.007,
            "adjusted": 2
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          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
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            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.03,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.0003,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0057,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 0,
      "predicted_R": 0,
      "predicted_ER": 0,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 8,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 15,
      "Pitches": 75,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by +6 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was +4."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260912_LAA@WAS.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260912

20260912_LAD@MIA

away

Tyler Glasnow

True

6.0

4.0

-6

2/5

1/4

6/7

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.121387283236994,
      "WHIP": 0.8843930635838151,
      "IP": 57.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 10,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.767,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.933,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.5368,
      "sample_weight": 0.764,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9544,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0646,
      "walk_factor": 0.9786,
      "homer_factor": 0.9844,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 32.0,
      "bb_percent": 7.8,
      "woba": 0.234,
      "xwoba": 0.253,
      "barrel_percent": 8.3,
      "hard_hit_percent": 39.4,
      "whiff_percent": 29.8
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 115,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 6.0,
      "season_IP": 57.2,
      "season_ERA": 3.121,
      "season_WHIP": 0.884,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.5625,
        "last_10": 0.43749999999999994
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 10.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.6667,
        "prior_weight": 0.3333
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "607192",
      "report_date": "20260912",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 10,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 24.2,
            "ER": 11.0,
            "R": 11.0,
            "H": 18.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 32.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 99.0,
            "Pitches": 381.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.2,
            "R": 2.2,
            "H": 3.6,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 6.4,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 19.8,
            "Pitches": 76.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.0135,
            "WHIP": 1.1351,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.44595,
            "H_per_IP": 0.72973,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.40541,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.2973,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12162
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 57.2,
            "ER": 20.0,
            "R": 20.0,
            "H": 34.0,
            "BB": 17.0,
            "SO": 70.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 219.0,
            "Pitches": 869.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 3.4,
            "BB": 1.7,
            "SO": 7.0,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 21.9,
            "Pitches": 86.9
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.1214,
            "WHIP": 0.8844,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.34682,
            "H_per_IP": 0.5896,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.2948,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.21387,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08671
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 57.2,
            "ER": 20.0,
            "R": 20.0,
            "H": 34.0,
            "BB": 17.0,
            "SO": 70.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 219.0,
            "Pitches": 869.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 3.4,
            "BB": 1.7,
            "SO": 7.0,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 21.9,
            "Pitches": 86.9
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.1214,
            "WHIP": 0.8844,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.34682,
            "H_per_IP": 0.5896,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.2948,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.21387,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08671
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.411,
        "predicted_H": 4.255,
        "predicted_BB": 1.999,
        "predicted_SO": 6.38,
        "predicted_HR": 0.661,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.9254,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1313
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4908,
      "form_weight": 0.5092,
      "form_reliability": 0.6667,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 10.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.6667,
        "prior_weight": 0.3333
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 2.411,
          "final": 1.2276,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 4.255,
          "final": 3.1482,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.999,
          "final": 1.5087,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 6.38,
          "final": 5.7027,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.661,
          "final": 0.3366,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.9254,
          "final": 3.9254,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1313,
          "final": 1.1313,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 57.2,
        "ER": 20,
        "H": 34,
        "BB": 17,
        "SO": 70,
        "HR": 5,
        "ERA": 3.1213872832369938,
        "WHIP": 0.884393063583815,
        "K9": 10.92485549132948,
        "HR9": 0.7803468208092484,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 5,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-05T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.84320244046997,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 0.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 10.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.6667,
          "prior_weight": 0.3333
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 0,
          "predicted_H": 2,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 6,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "607192",
      "player_name": "Tyler Glasnow",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "LAD",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "percent_delta": null,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.2,
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              "projection_effect": "better",
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_boost": {
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            "biggest_deboost": null
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          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
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            {
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
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          {
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          },
          {
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
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            "delta": 1.0,
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        ],
        "summary": {
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          "biggest_boost": {
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          },
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "LAD",
        "games": 147,
        "wins": 90,
        "losses": 57,
        "win_pct": 0.6122,
        "runs_scored": 734.0,
        "runs_allowed": 561.0,
        "run_differential": 173.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.1769,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.9932,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8163,
        "offense_index": 1.1092,
        "defense_index": 1.1796,
        "current_streak": "W8",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "losses": 2,
          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4,
          "run_differential": 20.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.3442
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "MIA",
        "games": 148,
        "wins": 72,
        "losses": 76,
        "win_pct": 0.4865,
        "runs_scored": 656.0,
        "runs_allowed": 653.0,
        "run_differential": 3.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0203,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4324,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4122,
        "offense_index": 0.9846,
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        "current_streak": "L4",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "avg_runs_scored": 5.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.8,
          "run_differential": -9.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.079
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.4232,
        "offense_edge": 0.1092,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0154,
        "defense_strength": 0.1796,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0203,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.5
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0229,
        "run_prevention": 0.9584,
        "strikeout": 1.0139
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "607192",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "607192",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 191.0,
            "k_percent": 32.0,
            "bb_percent": 7.8,
            "woba": 0.234,
            "xwoba": 0.253,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 31.1,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 39.4,
            "avg_best_speed": 81.5009,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9679,
            "whiff_percent": 29.8,
            "swing_percent": 42.9
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 130.5,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.3165,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6397,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9178,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.9016,
            "command_and_miss": 0.9529,
            "regression_edge": -0.5429,
            "xwoba_edge": 1.6571,
            "barrel_edge": -0.2667,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.2,
            "whiff_edge": 0.6857,
            "bb_edge": 0.35,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.053
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "607192",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 79,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 79,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.79575244320905,
              "release_spin_rate": 2624.519085129293,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 79,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.79575244320905,
                "release_spin_rate": 2624.519085129293,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.7958,
              "release_spin_rate": 2624.5191,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.053,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.3787,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.5368,
          "sample_weight": 0.764,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9544,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0646,
          "walk_factor": 0.9786,
          "homer_factor": 0.9844,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.019,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "607192",
            "espn_id": 33190,
            "player_name": "Tyler Glasnow",
            "team": "LAD",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 115,
            "espn_total_ranked": 859,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 115,
              "gp_value": 10.0,
              "gp_rank": 531,
              "gs_value": 10.0,
              "gs_rank": 172,
              "qs_value": 5.0,
              "qs_rank": 109,
              "era_value": 3.1213,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 4.0,
              "w_rank": 190,
              "l_value": 0.0,
              "l_rank": 574,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 250,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 353,
              "ip_value": 57.2,
              "ip_rank": 253,
              "h_value": 34.0,
              "h_rank": 380,
              "er_value": 20.0,
              "er_rank": 323,
              "hr_value": 5.0,
              "hr_rank": 321,
              "bb_value": 17.0,
              "bb_rank": 347,
              "k_value": 70.0,
              "k_rank": 183,
              "k_per_9_value": 10.924855,
              "k_per_9_rank": 19.0,
              "whip_value": 0.8843,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 1.57,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9652,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9652,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9837,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9881,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 1.0494,
            "adjusted": 7
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 0,
      "predicted_ER": 0,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 92,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +4; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -6 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was +3."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: True; actual quality start: False."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260912_LAD@MIA.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260912

20260912_LAD@MIA

home

Tyler Phillips

True

5.0

3.2

-4

-1

4/2

5/3

2/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.5115606936416186,
      "WHIP": 1.3265895953757225,
      "IP": 115.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 34,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.627,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.8,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.2701,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.023,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.988,
      "walk_factor": 1.012,
      "homer_factor": 1.0553,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 18.9,
      "bb_percent": 9.8,
      "woba": 0.315,
      "xwoba": 0.329,
      "barrel_percent": 7.8,
      "hard_hit_percent": 42.8,
      "whiff_percent": 26.0
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 86,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.0,
      "season_IP": 115.1,
      "season_ERA": 3.512,
      "season_WHIP": 1.327,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 34.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8718,
        "prior_weight": 0.1282
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "663969",
      "report_date": "20260912",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 34,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 22.0,
            "ER": 9.0,
            "R": 9.0,
            "H": 17.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 23.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 90.0,
            "Pitches": 363.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 1.8,
            "H": 3.4,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 4.6,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 18.0,
            "Pitches": 72.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.6818,
            "WHIP": 1.1818,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.40909,
            "H_per_IP": 0.77273,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.40909,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.04545,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13636
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 41.1,
            "ER": 18.0,
            "R": 19.0,
            "H": 38.0,
            "BB": 14.0,
            "SO": 38.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 173.0,
            "Pitches": 659.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.0,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 1.9,
            "H": 3.8,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 3.8,
            "HR": 0.7,
            "BF": 17.3,
            "Pitches": 65.9
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.9194,
            "WHIP": 1.2581,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.43548,
            "H_per_IP": 0.91935,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.33871,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.91935,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.16935
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 34,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 115.1,
            "ER": 45.0,
            "R": 48.0,
            "H": 105.0,
            "BB": 48.0,
            "SO": 93.0,
            "HR": 15.0,
            "BF": 491.0,
            "Pitches": 1846.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.1,
            "ER": 1.3235,
            "R": 1.4118,
            "H": 3.0882,
            "BB": 1.4118,
            "SO": 2.7353,
            "HR": 0.4412,
            "BF": 14.4412,
            "Pitches": 54.2941
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.5116,
            "WHIP": 1.3266,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.39017,
            "H_per_IP": 0.9104,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.41618,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.80636,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13006
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.0,
        "predicted_ER": 1.764,
        "predicted_H": 3.592,
        "predicted_BB": 1.59,
        "predicted_SO": 3.943,
        "predicted_HR": 0.607,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.8334,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.251
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4042,
      "form_weight": 0.5958,
      "form_reliability": 0.8718,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 34.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8718,
        "prior_weight": 0.1282
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.0,
          "final": 4.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 1.764,
          "final": 2.6677,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 3.592,
          "final": 3.7569,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 1.59,
          "final": 2.9682,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 3.943,
          "final": 3.1577,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.607,
          "final": 0.3617,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.8334,
          "final": 3.8334,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.251,
          "final": 1.251,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 41.1,
        "ER": 18,
        "H": 38,
        "BB": 14,
        "SO": 38,
        "HR": 7,
        "ERA": 3.919354838709677,
        "WHIP": 1.2580645161290323,
        "K9": 8.274193548387096,
        "HR9": 1.5241935483870968,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-06T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9423155767742772,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 5.0,
          "predicted_SO": 2.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 34.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8718,
          "prior_weight": 0.1282
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "663969",
      "player_name": "Tyler Phillips",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "MIA",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 5.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 2.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 5.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 2.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 0,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
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          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "MIA",
        "games": 148,
        "wins": 72,
        "losses": 76,
        "win_pct": 0.4865,
        "runs_scored": 656.0,
        "runs_allowed": 653.0,
        "run_differential": 3.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0203,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4324,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4122,
        "offense_index": 0.9846,
        "defense_index": 1.0203,
        "current_streak": "L4",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.8,
          "run_differential": -9.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.079
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "LAD",
        "games": 147,
        "wins": 90,
        "losses": 57,
        "win_pct": 0.6122,
        "runs_scored": 734.0,
        "runs_allowed": 561.0,
        "run_differential": 173.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.1769,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.9932,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8163,
        "offense_index": 1.1092,
        "defense_index": 1.1796,
        "current_streak": "W8",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 8,
          "losses": 2,
          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4,
          "run_differential": 20.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.3442
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.4232,
        "offense_edge": -0.0154,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.1092,
        "defense_strength": 0.0203,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1796,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.5
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9793,
        "run_prevention": 1.0366,
        "strikeout": 0.9786
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "663969",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "663969",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 458.0,
            "k_percent": 18.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.8,
            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.329,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 32.9,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.8,
            "hard_hit_percent": 42.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.238,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.3571,
            "whiff_percent": 26.0,
            "swing_percent": 46.1
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 130.5,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.3165,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6397,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9178,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.3189,
            "command_and_miss": -0.1793,
            "regression_edge": -0.4,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.5143,
            "barrel_edge": -0.1556,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.6857,
            "whiff_edge": 0.1429,
            "bb_edge": -0.15,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0607
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "663969",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 69,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 69,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.76458424679134,
              "release_spin_rate": 2057.565279936834,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 69,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.76458424679134,
                "release_spin_rate": 2057.565279936834,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.7646,
              "release_spin_rate": 2057.5653,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0607,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.4338,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.2701,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.023,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.988,
          "walk_factor": 1.012,
          "homer_factor": 1.0553,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.014,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "663969",
            "espn_id": 41247,
            "player_name": "Tyler Phillips",
            "team": "MIA",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 86,
            "espn_total_ranked": 859,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 86,
              "gp_value": 34.0,
              "gp_rank": 199,
              "gs_value": 17.0,
              "gs_rank": 124,
              "qs_value": 2.0,
              "qs_rank": 157,
              "era_value": 3.5115,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 5.0,
              "w_rank": 149,
              "l_value": 6.0,
              "l_rank": 113,
              "sv_value": 2.0,
              "sv_rank": 93,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 353,
              "ip_value": 115.1,
              "ip_rank": 102,
              "h_value": 105.0,
              "h_rank": 113,
              "er_value": 45.0,
              "er_rank": 130,
              "hr_value": 15.0,
              "hr_rank": 92,
              "bb_value": 48.0,
              "bb_rank": 50,
              "k_value": 93.0,
              "k_rank": 122,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.2572255,
              "k_per_9_rank": 32.0,
              "whip_value": 1.3265,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 1.79,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.023,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.023,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.012,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0553,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.988,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 5,
      "predicted_SO": 2,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 25,
      "Pitches": 107,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was +2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260912_LAD@MIA.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260912

20260912_NYM@NYY

away

Zac Thornton

True

5.1

7.0

2/5

6/1

7/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.5276381909547743,
      "WHIP": 1.190954773869347,
      "IP": 66.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 12,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.528,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.4,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.3008,
      "sample_weight": 0.9,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0256,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9542,
      "walk_factor": 0.9352,
      "homer_factor": 1.0546,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 19.1,
      "bb_percent": 5.6,
      "woba": 0.318,
      "xwoba": 0.331,
      "barrel_percent": 9.0,
      "hard_hit_percent": 39.7,
      "whiff_percent": 19.0
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 138,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 12.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7059,
        "prior_weight": 0.2941
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "804267",
      "report_date": "20260912",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 12,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 27.0,
            "ER": 15.0,
            "R": 15.0,
            "H": 34.0,
            "BB": 3.0,
            "SO": 24.0,
            "HR": 8.0,
            "BF": 114.0,
            "Pitches": 447.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 6.8,
            "BB": 0.6,
            "SO": 4.8,
            "HR": 1.6,
            "BF": 22.8,
            "Pitches": 89.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.0,
            "WHIP": 1.3704,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.55556,
            "H_per_IP": 1.25926,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.11111,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.88889,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.2963
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 56.0,
            "ER": 21.0,
            "R": 22.0,
            "H": 55.0,
            "BB": 12.0,
            "SO": 41.0,
            "HR": 10.0,
            "BF": 225.0,
            "Pitches": 848.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.1,
            "R": 2.2,
            "H": 5.5,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 4.1,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 22.5,
            "Pitches": 84.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.375,
            "WHIP": 1.1964,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.375,
            "H_per_IP": 0.98214,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.21429,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.73214,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.17857
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 12,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 66.1,
            "ER": 26.0,
            "R": 27.0,
            "H": 64.0,
            "BB": 15.0,
            "SO": 51.0,
            "HR": 11.0,
            "BF": 267.0,
            "Pitches": 1006.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.1667,
            "R": 2.25,
            "H": 5.3333,
            "BB": 1.25,
            "SO": 4.25,
            "HR": 0.9167,
            "BF": 22.25,
            "Pitches": 83.8333
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.5276,
            "WHIP": 1.191,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.39196,
            "H_per_IP": 0.96482,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.22613,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.76884,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.16583
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.581,
        "predicted_H": 5.817,
        "predicted_BB": 1.252,
        "predicted_SO": 4.635,
        "predicted_HR": 1.118,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.2524,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2941
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4743,
      "form_weight": 0.5257,
      "form_reliability": 0.7059,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 12.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7059,
        "prior_weight": 0.2941
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.1,
          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 2.581,
          "final": 1.3569,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 5.817,
          "final": 4.0068,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 1.252,
          "final": 3.5038,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.635,
          "final": 4.8081,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.118,
          "final": 0.5878,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.2524,
          "final": 4.2524,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2941,
          "final": 1.2941,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 56.0,
        "ER": 21,
        "H": 55,
        "BB": 12,
        "SO": 41,
        "HR": 10,
        "ERA": 3.375,
        "WHIP": 1.1964285714285714,
        "K9": 6.589285714285714,
        "HR9": 1.6071428571428572,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 5,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-05T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.879534758801927,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 0.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 6.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 12.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7059,
          "prior_weight": 0.2941
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "804267",
      "player_name": "Zac Thornton",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "NYM",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 6.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 6.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.1,
            "predicted_R": 0.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0438,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 2.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.4,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 1,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 2.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.4,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0438,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0437,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 2.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.4,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 2,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 1,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
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            "delta": 2.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.4,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0437,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "NYM",
        "games": 147,
        "wins": 68,
        "losses": 79,
        "win_pct": 0.4626,
        "runs_scored": 631.0,
        "runs_allowed": 673.0,
        "run_differential": -42.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2857,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.2925,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5782,
        "offense_index": 0.9535,
        "defense_index": 0.9833,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.8,
          "run_differential": 11.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0033
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "NYY",
        "games": 147,
        "wins": 85,
        "losses": 62,
        "win_pct": 0.5782,
        "runs_scored": 673.0,
        "runs_allowed": 540.0,
        "run_differential": 133.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.9048,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5782,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.6735,
        "offense_index": 1.017,
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          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.5,
          "run_differential": 16.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.247
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.2437,
        "offense_edge": -0.0465,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.017,
        "defense_strength": -0.0167,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.2255,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9891,
        "run_prevention": 1.0166,
        "strikeout": 0.9913
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "804267",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "804267",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 225.0,
            "k_percent": 19.1,
            "bb_percent": 5.6,
            "woba": 0.318,
            "xwoba": 0.331,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 37.2,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 9.0,
            "hard_hit_percent": 39.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.7377,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.2508,
            "whiff_percent": 19.0,
            "swing_percent": 51.9
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 130.5,
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            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.3165,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6397,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9178,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.3685,
            "command_and_miss": -0.3064,
            "regression_edge": -0.3714,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.5714,
            "barrel_edge": -0.4222,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.2429,
            "whiff_edge": -0.8571,
            "bb_edge": 0.9,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.1391
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "804267",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 85,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 85,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 87.36518455660557,
              "release_spin_rate": 2357.0632917137727,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 85,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 87.36518455660557,
                "release_spin_rate": 2357.0632917137727,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.3652,
              "release_spin_rate": 2357.0633,
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              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
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              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1391,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.9935,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.3008,
          "sample_weight": 0.9,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0256,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9542,
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          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "804267",
            "espn_id": 5129576,
            "player_name": "Zac Thornton",
            "team": "NYM",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 138,
            "espn_total_ranked": 859,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 138,
              "gp_value": 12.0,
              "gp_rank": 497,
              "gs_value": 12.0,
              "gs_rank": 158,
              "qs_value": 6.0,
              "qs_rank": 92,
              "era_value": 3.5276,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 3.0,
              "w_rank": 246,
              "l_value": 5.0,
              "l_rank": 137,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 250,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 353,
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              "ip_rank": 201,
              "h_value": 64.0,
              "h_rank": 185,
              "er_value": 26.0,
              "er_rank": 233,
              "hr_value": 11.0,
              "hr_rank": 148,
              "bb_value": 15.0,
              "bb_rank": 384,
              "k_value": 51.0,
              "k_rank": 289,
              "k_per_9_value": 6.919598,
              "k_per_9_rank": 38.0,
              "whip_value": 1.1909,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 1.37,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.023,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.023,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9417,
            "adjusted": 1
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          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0491,
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          "predicted_SO": {
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            "factor": 0.9588,
            "adjusted": 4
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 0,
      "predicted_ER": 0,
      "predicted_BB": 6,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 24,
      "Pitches": 109,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +2."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -5."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260912_NYM@NYY.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260912

20260912_NYM@NYY

home

Gerrit Cole

True

6.0

4.1

-5

6/9

1/0

3/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
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      "IP": 111.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 19,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.842,
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      "last_start_IP": 7.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
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      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9927,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0011,
      "walk_factor": 0.914,
      "homer_factor": 1.0499,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 24.9,
      "bb_percent": 4.9,
      "woba": 0.296,
      "xwoba": 0.296,
      "barrel_percent": 8.7,
      "hard_hit_percent": 44.0,
      "whiff_percent": 22.3
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 52,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
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      },
      "shrinkage": {
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      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "543037",
      "report_date": "20260912",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 19,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
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          "totals": {
            "IP": 30.1,
            "ER": 12.0,
            "R": 13.0,
            "H": 29.0,
            "BB": 5.0,
            "SO": 26.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 124.0,
            "Pitches": 433.0
          },
          "per_game": {
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            "R": 2.6,
            "H": 5.8,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 5.2,
            "HR": 1.2,
            "BF": 24.8,
            "Pitches": 86.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.5604,
            "WHIP": 1.1209,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.3956,
            "H_per_IP": 0.95604,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.16484,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.85714,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1978
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 62.0,
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            "R": 21.0,
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            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 66.0,
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            "Pitches": 909.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.1,
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            "SO": 6.6,
            "HR": 0.9,
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            "Pitches": 90.9
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.9032,
            "WHIP": 1.0,
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            "H_per_IP": 0.82258,
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            "SO_per_IP": 1.06452,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.14516
          }
        },
        "season": {
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            "ER": 42.0,
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            "H": 99.0,
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            "SO": 113.0,
            "HR": 17.0,
            "BF": 453.0,
            "Pitches": 1679.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 2.2105,
            "R": 2.2632,
            "H": 5.2105,
            "BB": 1.1579,
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            "Pitches": 88.3684
          },
          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.0901,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.37838,
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            "SO_per_IP": 1.01802,
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.407,
        "predicted_H": 5.558,
        "predicted_BB": 1.319,
        "predicted_SO": 5.834,
        "predicted_HR": 1.007,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.5557,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1288
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
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      "form_reliability": 0.7917,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
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        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7917,
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      "applied_metrics": {
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          "form": 6.0,
          "final": 6.0,
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
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          "form": 2.407,
          "final": 3.5428,
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
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          "form": 5.558,
          "final": 5.7516,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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          "form": 1.319,
          "final": 1.1793,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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          "form": 5.834,
          "final": 3.7167,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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          "form": 1.007,
          "final": 1.4419,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.5557,
          "final": 3.5557,
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
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          "form": 1.1288,
          "final": 1.1288,
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        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
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        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
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        "ER": 20,
        "H": 51,
        "BB": 11,
        "SO": 66,
        "HR": 9,
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        "K9": 9.580645161290322,
        "HR9": 1.3064516129032258,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 7,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
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        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-06T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8215494477420193,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 5.0,
          "predicted_H": 6.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 1.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 19.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7917,
          "prior_weight": 0.2083
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 6,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 6,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "543037",
      "player_name": "Gerrit Cole",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "NYY",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 1.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -2.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.4,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.5,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 5.0,
              "percent_delta": 5.0,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 3,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 2,
            "better_metrics": 3,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 5.0,
              "percent_delta": 5.0,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -2.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.4,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -3.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.5,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -3.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.5,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": -2.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.4,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.5,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 2.0,
            "percent_delta": 2.0,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 3,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 2,
          "better_metrics": 3,
          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 2.0,
            "percent_delta": 2.0,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": -2.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.4,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "NYY",
        "games": 147,
        "wins": 85,
        "losses": 62,
        "win_pct": 0.5782,
        "runs_scored": 673.0,
        "runs_allowed": 540.0,
        "run_differential": 133.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.9048,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5782,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.6735,
        "offense_index": 1.017,
        "defense_index": 1.2255,
        "current_streak": "W4",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.5,
          "run_differential": 16.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.247
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "NYM",
        "games": 147,
        "wins": 68,
        "losses": 79,
        "win_pct": 0.4626,
        "runs_scored": 631.0,
        "runs_allowed": 673.0,
        "run_differential": -42.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2857,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.2925,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5782,
        "offense_index": 0.9535,
        "defense_index": 0.9833,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.8,
          "run_differential": 11.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0033
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.2437,
        "offense_edge": 0.017,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0465,
        "defense_strength": 0.2255,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0167,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0184,
        "run_prevention": 0.9578,
        "strikeout": 1.011
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "543037",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "543037",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 421.0,
            "k_percent": 24.9,
            "bb_percent": 4.9,
            "woba": 0.296,
            "xwoba": 0.296,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 35.7,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.7,
            "hard_hit_percent": 44.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 81.2748,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.4029,
            "whiff_percent": 22.3,
            "swing_percent": 49.6
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 130.5,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.3165,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6397,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9178,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.0119,
            "command_and_miss": 0.2664,
            "regression_edge": 0.0,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.4286,
            "barrel_edge": -0.3556,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.8571,
            "whiff_edge": -0.3857,
            "bb_edge": 1.075,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.1221
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "543037",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 86,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 86,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 92.02958428402303,
              "release_spin_rate": 2370.079024357199,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 86,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 92.02958428402303,
                "release_spin_rate": 2370.079024357199,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 92.0296,
              "release_spin_rate": 2370.079,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.1221,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.8722,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0857,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9927,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0011,
          "walk_factor": 0.914,
          "homer_factor": 1.0499,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.0,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "543037",
            "espn_id": 32081,
            "player_name": "Gerrit Cole",
            "team": "NYY",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 52,
            "espn_total_ranked": 859,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 52,
              "gp_value": 19.0,
              "gp_rank": 405,
              "gs_value": 19.0,
              "gs_rank": 105,
              "qs_value": 11.0,
              "qs_rank": 46,
              "era_value": 3.4054,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 8.0,
              "w_rank": 65,
              "l_value": 8.0,
              "l_rank": 62,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 250,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 353,
              "ip_value": 111.0,
              "ip_rank": 106,
              "h_value": 99.0,
              "h_rank": 118,
              "er_value": 42.0,
              "er_rank": 146,
              "hr_value": 17.0,
              "hr_rank": 71,
              "bb_value": 22.0,
              "bb_rank": 268,
              "k_value": 113.0,
              "k_rank": 83,
              "k_per_9_value": 9.162163,
              "k_per_9_rank": 21.0,
              "whip_value": 1.09,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 2.56,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9927,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 0.9927,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.914,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0499,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0011,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 3,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 28,
      "Pitches": 110,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +2."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was +2."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: True; actual quality start: False."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260912_NYM@NYY.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260912

20260912_PHI@ATL

away

Tim Mayza

True

5.0

3.0

-6

-1

2/2

1/0

6/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.2282608695652173,
      "WHIP": 1.059782608695652,
      "IP": 61.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 54,
      "role_avg_IP": 1.583,
      "recent_avg_IP": 1.583,
      "last_start_IP": 2.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.2771,
      "sample_weight": 0.92,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9764,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0042,
      "walk_factor": 0.943,
      "homer_factor": 1.0018,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 24.2,
      "bb_percent": 6.1,
      "woba": 0.275,
      "xwoba": 0.283,
      "barrel_percent": 6.5,
      "hard_hit_percent": 44.4,
      "whiff_percent": 23.6
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 125,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.2,
      "season_IP": 61.1,
      "season_ERA": 3.228,
      "season_WHIP": 1.06,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 12.375,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7122,
        "prior_weight": 0.2878
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "641835",
      "report_date": "20260912",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 54,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 0.0,
            "R": 0.0,
            "H": 4.0,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 3.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 20.0,
            "Pitches": 83.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.0,
            "ER": 0.0,
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                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 92.1444,
              "release_spin_rate": 2090.9069,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.1285,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.9182,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.2771,
          "sample_weight": 0.92,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9764,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0042,
          "walk_factor": 0.943,
          "homer_factor": 1.0018,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.008,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "641835",
            "espn_id": 35773,
            "player_name": "Tim Mayza",
            "team": "PHI",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 125,
            "espn_total_ranked": 859,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 125,
              "gp_value": 54.0,
              "gp_rank": 81,
              "gs_value": 4.0,
              "gs_rank": 235,
              "qs_value": 0.0,
              "qs_rank": 210,
              "era_value": 3.2282,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 3.0,
              "w_rank": 246,
              "l_value": 3.0,
              "l_rank": 243,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 250,
              "hld_value": 1.0,
              "hld_rank": 272,
              "ip_value": 61.1,
              "ip_rank": 231,
              "h_value": 50.0,
              "h_rank": 248,
              "er_value": 22.0,
              "er_rank": 292,
              "hr_value": 6.0,
              "hr_rank": 271,
              "bb_value": 15.0,
              "bb_rank": 384,
              "k_value": 59.0,
              "k_rank": 234,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.657608,
              "k_per_9_rank": 27.0,
              "whip_value": 1.0597,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 1.48,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9783,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9783,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9476,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.0017,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0039,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 18,
      "Pitches": 73,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -6 outs from the projected workload."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260912_PHI@ATL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260912

20260912_PHI@ATL

home

Tyler Mahle

True

5.2

7.0

-2

9/6

2/0

3/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.0534351145038165,
      "WHIP": 1.2671755725190839,
      "IP": 131.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 24,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.458,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.067,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.028,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0024,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9949,
      "walk_factor": 0.974,
      "homer_factor": 0.9977,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 22.8,
      "bb_percent": 7.9,
      "woba": 0.314,
      "xwoba": 0.312,
      "barrel_percent": 6.7,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.7,
      "whiff_percent": 23.3
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 130,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 24.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8276,
        "prior_weight": 0.1724
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "641816",
      "report_date": "20260912",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 24,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 30.1,
            "ER": 5.0,
            "R": 7.0,
            "H": 25.0,
            "BB": 4.0,
            "SO": 26.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 118.0,
            "Pitches": 446.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.0,
            "R": 1.4,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 0.8,
            "SO": 5.2,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 23.6,
            "Pitches": 89.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.4835,
            "WHIP": 0.956,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.16484,
            "H_per_IP": 0.82418,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.13187,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.85714,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0989
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 60.0,
            "ER": 14.0,
            "R": 16.0,
            "H": 46.0,
            "BB": 14.0,
            "SO": 55.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 237.0,
            "Pitches": 920.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.4,
            "R": 1.6,
            "H": 4.6,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 5.5,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 23.7,
            "Pitches": 92.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.1,
            "WHIP": 1.0,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.23333,
            "H_per_IP": 0.76667,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.23333,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.91667,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08333
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 24,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 131.0,
            "ER": 59.0,
            "R": 62.0,
            "H": 123.0,
            "BB": 43.0,
            "SO": 124.0,
            "HR": 17.0,
            "BF": 545.0,
            "Pitches": 2116.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.4583,
            "R": 2.5833,
            "H": 5.125,
            "BB": 1.7917,
            "SO": 5.1667,
            "HR": 0.7083,
            "BF": 22.7083,
            "Pitches": 88.1667
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.0534,
            "WHIP": 1.2672,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.45038,
            "H_per_IP": 0.93893,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.32824,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.94656,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12977
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 1.693,
        "predicted_H": 4.97,
        "predicted_BB": 1.37,
        "predicted_SO": 5.27,
        "predicted_HR": 0.628,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.6126,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.087
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4228,
      "form_weight": 0.5772,
      "form_reliability": 0.8276,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 24.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8276,
        "prior_weight": 0.1724
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 1.693,
          "final": 2.2457,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 9.0,
          "form": 4.97,
          "final": 6.674,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.37,
          "final": 1.6364,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 5.27,
          "final": 3.8873,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.628,
          "final": 0.3625,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.6126,
          "final": 2.6126,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.087,
          "final": 1.087,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 60.0,
        "ER": 14,
        "H": 46,
        "BB": 14,
        "SO": 55,
        "HR": 5,
        "ERA": 2.1,
        "WHIP": 1.0,
        "K9": 8.25,
        "HR9": 0.75,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 7,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-06T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.7311865445162128,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 9.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 2.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 24.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8276,
          "prior_weight": 0.1724
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "641816",
      "player_name": "Tyler Mahle",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "ATL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 9.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 2.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 9.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 9.0,
              "after": 9.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.5,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
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            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.5,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 9.0,
            "after": 9.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
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            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.5,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
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          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 2,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
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          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": {
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          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
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            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "ATL",
        "games": 148,
        "wins": 87,
        "losses": 61,
        "win_pct": 0.5878,
        "runs_scored": 677.0,
        "runs_allowed": 566.0,
        "run_differential": 111.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.75,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5743,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8243,
        "offense_index": 1.0161,
        "defense_index": 1.1771,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0,
          "run_differential": -2.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1663
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "PHI",
        "games": 148,
        "wins": 82,
        "losses": 66,
        "win_pct": 0.5541,
        "runs_scored": 664.0,
        "runs_allowed": 628.0,
        "run_differential": 36.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.2432,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4865,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2432,
        "offense_index": 0.9966,
        "defense_index": 1.0609,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.5,
          "run_differential": 5.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0407
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.1256,
        "offense_edge": 0.0161,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0034,
        "defense_strength": 0.1771,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0609,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0105,
        "run_prevention": 0.9755,
        "strikeout": 1.004
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "641816",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "641816",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 494.0,
            "k_percent": 22.8,
            "bb_percent": 7.9,
            "woba": 0.314,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.9,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.7,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 80.4999,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9979,
            "whiff_percent": 23.3,
            "swing_percent": 46.0
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 130.5,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.3165,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6397,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9178,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.0729,
            "command_and_miss": 0.0314,
            "regression_edge": 0.0571,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.0286,
            "barrel_edge": 0.0889,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.1,
            "whiff_edge": -0.2429,
            "bb_edge": 0.325,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0133
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "641816",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 88,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 88,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.61229354252224,
              "release_spin_rate": 2139.505463281205,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 88,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.61229354252224,
                "release_spin_rate": 2139.505463281205,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.6123,
              "release_spin_rate": 2139.5055,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0133,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.0947,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.028,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0024,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9949,
          "walk_factor": 0.974,
          "homer_factor": 0.9977,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.002,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "641816",
            "espn_id": 34973,
            "player_name": "Tyler Mahle",
            "team": "ATL",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 130,
            "espn_total_ranked": 859,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 130,
              "gp_value": 24.0,
              "gp_rank": 342,
              "gs_value": 24.0,
              "gs_rank": 72,
              "qs_value": 8.0,
              "qs_rank": 75,
              "era_value": 4.0534,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 5.0,
              "w_rank": 149,
              "l_value": 10.0,
              "l_rank": 20,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 250,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 353,
              "ip_value": 131.0,
              "ip_rank": 83,
              "h_value": 123.0,
              "h_rank": 73,
              "er_value": 59.0,
              "er_rank": 70,
              "hr_value": 17.0,
              "hr_rank": 71,
              "bb_value": 43.0,
              "bb_rank": 69,
              "k_value": 124.0,
              "k_rank": 62,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.519084,
              "k_per_9_rank": 20.0,
              "whip_value": 1.2671,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 1.43,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0024,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0024,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.974,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9977,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9949,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 9,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 3,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 29,
      "Pitches": 118,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260912_PHI@ATL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260912

20260912_PIT@CHC

away

Paul Skenes

True

5.1

7.0

-1

5/4

1/1

1/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.832258064516129,
      "WHIP": 1.1483870967741936,
      "IP": 155.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 29,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.345,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.067,
      "last_start_IP": 5.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.4817,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9591,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.052,
      "walk_factor": 0.956,
      "homer_factor": 0.971,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 28.3,
      "bb_percent": 7.0,
      "woba": 0.295,
      "xwoba": 0.28,
      "barrel_percent": 6.9,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.2,
      "whiff_percent": 27.8
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 40,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 29.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8529,
        "prior_weight": 0.1471
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "694973",
      "report_date": "20260912",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 29,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 25.1,
            "ER": 9.0,
            "R": 10.0,
            "H": 24.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 19.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 108.0,
            "Pitches": 415.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 4.8,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 3.8,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 21.6,
            "Pitches": 83.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.1974,
            "WHIP": 1.3026,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.35526,
            "H_per_IP": 0.94737,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.35526,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.75,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07895
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 52.0,
            "ER": 25.0,
            "R": 26.0,
            "H": 49.0,
            "BB": 22.0,
            "SO": 58.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 220.0,
            "Pitches": 895.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.5,
            "R": 2.6,
            "H": 4.9,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 5.8,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 22.0,
            "Pitches": 89.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.3269,
            "WHIP": 1.3654,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.48077,
            "H_per_IP": 0.94231,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.42308,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.11538,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07692
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 29,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 155.0,
            "ER": 66.0,
            "R": 74.0,
            "H": 133.0,
            "BB": 45.0,
            "SO": 181.0,
            "HR": 15.0,
            "BF": 640.0,
            "Pitches": 2623.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.2759,
            "R": 2.5517,
            "H": 4.5862,
            "BB": 1.5517,
            "SO": 6.2414,
            "HR": 0.5172,
            "BF": 22.069,
            "Pitches": 90.4483
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.8323,
            "WHIP": 1.1484,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.42581,
            "H_per_IP": 0.85806,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.29032,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.16774,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09677
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.22,
        "predicted_H": 4.864,
        "predicted_BB": 1.909,
        "predicted_SO": 4.989,
        "predicted_HR": 0.475,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.8389,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.301
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4121,
      "form_weight": 0.5879,
      "form_reliability": 0.8529,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 29.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8529,
        "prior_weight": 0.1471
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.1,
          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.22,
          "final": 2.5415,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.864,
          "final": 4.9201,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.909,
          "final": 1.5344,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 4.989,
          "final": 3.3449,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.475,
          "final": 0.2792,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.8389,
          "final": 3.8389,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.301,
          "final": 1.301,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 52.0,
        "ER": 25,
        "H": 49,
        "BB": 22,
        "SO": 58,
        "HR": 4,
        "ERA": 4.326923076923077,
        "WHIP": 1.3653846153846154,
        "K9": 10.038461538461538,
        "HR9": 0.6923076923076923,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 2,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-06T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9908500060546743,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 1.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 29.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8529,
          "prior_weight": 0.1471
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "694973",
      "player_name": "Paul Skenes",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "PIT",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 1.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.1,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 1.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0438,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0438,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0437,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0437,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "PIT",
        "games": 148,
        "wins": 74,
        "losses": 74,
        "win_pct": 0.5,
        "runs_scored": 711.0,
        "runs_allowed": 685.0,
        "run_differential": 26.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1757,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.8041,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6284,
        "offense_index": 1.0672,
        "defense_index": 0.9726,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2,
          "run_differential": 0.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0915
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "CHC",
        "games": 148,
        "wins": 82,
        "losses": 66,
        "win_pct": 0.5541,
        "runs_scored": 792.0,
        "runs_allowed": 654.0,
        "run_differential": 138.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.9324,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.3514,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4189,
        "offense_index": 1.1887,
        "defense_index": 1.0187,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.3,
          "run_differential": -3.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1249
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0334,
        "offense_edge": 0.0672,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.1887,
        "defense_strength": -0.0274,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0187,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.3
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9903,
        "run_prevention": 1.0346,
        "strikeout": 0.9839
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "694973",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "694973",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 616.0,
            "k_percent": 28.3,
            "bb_percent": 7.0,
            "woba": 0.295,
            "xwoba": 0.28,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 35.0,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.9,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.2,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.7222,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8547,
            "whiff_percent": 27.8,
            "swing_percent": 51.0
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 130.5,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.3165,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6397,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9178,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.4571,
            "command_and_miss": 0.655,
            "regression_edge": 0.4286,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.8857,
            "barrel_edge": 0.0444,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.0286,
            "whiff_edge": 0.4,
            "bb_edge": 0.55,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.1568
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "694973",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 84,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 84,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 92.64834273200604,
              "release_spin_rate": 2103.3282783493146,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 84,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 92.64834273200604,
                "release_spin_rate": 2103.3282783493146,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 92.6483,
              "release_spin_rate": 2103.3283,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.1568,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 1.1198,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.4817,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9591,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.052,
          "walk_factor": 0.956,
          "homer_factor": 0.971,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.015,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "694973",
            "espn_id": 4719507,
            "player_name": "Paul Skenes",
            "team": "PIT",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 40,
            "espn_total_ranked": 859,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 40,
              "gp_value": 29.0,
              "gp_rank": 242,
              "gs_value": 29.0,
              "gs_rank": 12,
              "qs_value": 11.0,
              "qs_rank": 46,
              "era_value": 3.8322,
              "era_rank": 30.0,
              "w_value": 10.0,
              "w_rank": 29,
              "l_value": 11.0,
              "l_rank": 11,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 250,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 353,
              "ip_value": 155.0,
              "ip_rank": 39,
              "h_value": 133.0,
              "h_rank": 54,
              "er_value": 66.0,
              "er_rank": 47,
              "hr_value": 15.0,
              "hr_rank": 92,
              "bb_value": 45.0,
              "bb_rank": 62,
              "k_value": 181.0,
              "k_rank": 14,
              "k_per_9_value": 10.509678,
              "k_per_9_rank": 9.0,
              "whip_value": 1.1483,
              "whip_rank": 20.0,
              "war_value": 2.8,
              "war_rank": 25.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9591,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9591,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.956,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.971,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.052,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 1,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 24,
      "Pitches": 91,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was +2."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260912_PIT@CHC.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260912

20260912_PIT@CHC

home

Clay Holmes

True

5.2

5/5

3/4

5/6

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.8255813953488373,
      "WHIP": 1.1162790697674418,
      "IP": 86.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 15,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.733,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.867,
      "last_start_IP": 4.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.0687,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0058,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9577,
      "walk_factor": 0.988,
      "homer_factor": 0.9808,
      "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 18.6,
      "bb_percent": 8.6,
      "woba": 0.262,
      "xwoba": 0.311,
      "barrel_percent": 4.8,
      "hard_hit_percent": 41.8,
      "whiff_percent": 21.0
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 57,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 15.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.75,
        "prior_weight": 0.25
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "605280",
      "report_date": "20260912",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 15,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 29.1,
            "ER": 9.0,
            "R": 9.0,
            "H": 20.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 19.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 116.0,
            "Pitches": 440.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 1.8,
            "H": 4.0,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 3.8,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 23.2,
            "Pitches": 88.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.7614,
            "WHIP": 1.0227,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.30682,
            "H_per_IP": 0.68182,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.34091,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.64773,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.03409
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 56.0,
            "ER": 20.0,
            "R": 20.0,
            "H": 45.0,
            "BB": 20.0,
            "SO": 46.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 229.0,
            "Pitches": 901.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 4.5,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 4.6,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 22.9,
            "Pitches": 90.1
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.2143,
            "WHIP": 1.1607,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.35714,
            "H_per_IP": 0.80357,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.35714,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.82143,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.03571
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 15,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 86.0,
            "ER": 27.0,
            "R": 27.0,
            "H": 66.0,
            "BB": 30.0,
            "SO": 65.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 349.0,
            "Pitches": 1338.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 1.8,
            "H": 4.4,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 4.3333,
            "HR": 0.3333,
            "BF": 23.2667,
            "Pitches": 89.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.8256,
            "WHIP": 1.1163,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.31395,
            "H_per_IP": 0.76744,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.34884,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.75581,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.05814
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.14,
        "predicted_H": 4.619,
        "predicted_BB": 2.045,
        "predicted_SO": 4.524,
        "predicted_HR": 0.382,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.332,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1531
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4556,
      "form_weight": 0.5444,
      "form_reliability": 0.75,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 15.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.75,
        "prior_weight": 0.25
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.14,
          "final": 2.0762,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.619,
          "final": 4.7926,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.045,
          "final": 2.4801,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.524,
          "final": 4.7409,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.382,
          "final": 0.208,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.332,
          "final": 3.332,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1531,
          "final": 1.1531,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 56.0,
        "ER": 20,
        "H": 45,
        "BB": 20,
        "SO": 46,
        "HR": 2,
        "ERA": 3.214285714285715,
        "WHIP": 1.1607142857142858,
        "K9": 7.392857142857144,
        "HR9": 0.32142857142857145,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 5,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-06T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8605615445162129,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 15.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.75,
          "prior_weight": 0.25
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.2,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 5,
          "predicted_BB": 3,
          "predicted_SO": 5,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "605280",
      "player_name": "Clay Holmes",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CHC",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
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              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            },
            {
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
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              "percent_delta": null,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
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          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "CHC",
        "games": 148,
        "wins": 82,
        "losses": 66,
        "win_pct": 0.5541,
        "runs_scored": 792.0,
        "runs_allowed": 654.0,
        "run_differential": 138.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.9324,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.3514,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4189,
        "offense_index": 1.1887,
        "defense_index": 1.0187,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.3,
          "run_differential": -3.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1249
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "PIT",
        "games": 148,
        "wins": 74,
        "losses": 74,
        "win_pct": 0.5,
        "runs_scored": 711.0,
        "runs_allowed": 685.0,
        "run_differential": 26.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1757,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.8041,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6284,
        "offense_index": 1.0672,
        "defense_index": 0.9726,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2,
          "run_differential": 0.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0915
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0334,
        "offense_edge": 0.1887,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0672,
        "defense_strength": 0.0187,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0274,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.3
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9992,
        "run_prevention": 1.0072,
        "strikeout": 0.9956
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "605280",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "605280",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 325.0,
            "k_percent": 18.6,
            "bb_percent": 8.6,
            "woba": 0.262,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 27.5,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 4.8,
            "hard_hit_percent": 41.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.9631,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.3396,
            "whiff_percent": 21.0,
            "swing_percent": 46.2
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 130.5,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.3165,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6397,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9178,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.3158,
            "command_and_miss": -0.3886,
            "regression_edge": -1.4,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.0,
            "barrel_edge": 0.5111,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.5429,
            "whiff_edge": -0.5714,
            "bb_edge": 0.15,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0561
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "605280",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 86,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 86,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.84672418886161,
              "release_spin_rate": 2172.4481875144834,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 86,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.84672418886161,
                "release_spin_rate": 2172.4481875144834,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.8467,
              "release_spin_rate": 2172.4482,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0561,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.4009,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.0687,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0058,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9577,
          "walk_factor": 0.988,
          "homer_factor": 0.9808,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.049,
          "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "605280",
            "espn_id": 32827,
            "player_name": "Clay Holmes",
            "team": "CHC",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 57,
            "espn_total_ranked": 859,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 57,
              "gp_value": 15.0,
              "gp_rank": 458,
              "gs_value": 15.0,
              "gs_rank": 138,
              "qs_value": 7.0,
              "qs_rank": 82,
              "era_value": 2.8255,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 6.0,
              "w_rank": 108,
              "l_value": 7.0,
              "l_rank": 85,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 250,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 353,
              "ip_value": 86.0,
              "ip_rank": 150,
              "h_value": 66.0,
              "h_rank": 179,
              "er_value": 27.0,
              "er_rank": 217,
              "hr_value": 5.0,
              "hr_rank": 321,
              "bb_value": 30.0,
              "bb_rank": 171,
              "k_value": 65.0,
              "k_rank": 207,
              "k_per_9_value": 6.8023257,
              "k_per_9_rank": 37.0,
              "whip_value": 1.1162,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 2.46,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0058,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0058,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.988,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9808,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9577,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 25,
      "Pitches": 110,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260912_PIT@CHC.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260912

20260912_SD@SF

away

Michael King

True

6.0

7.0

4/5

2/0

9/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.0,
      "WHIP": 1.1666666666666667,
      "IP": 168.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 29,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.793,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.333,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.082,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.007,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9937,
      "walk_factor": 1.008,
      "homer_factor": 1.0049,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 21.0,
      "bb_percent": 9.6,
      "woba": 0.292,
      "xwoba": 0.321,
      "barrel_percent": 8.5,
      "hard_hit_percent": 33.0,
      "whiff_percent": 24.9
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 12,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 29.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8529,
        "prior_weight": 0.1471
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "650633",
      "report_date": "20260912",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 29,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 31.2,
            "ER": 5.0,
            "R": 6.0,
            "H": 25.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 24.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 127.0,
            "Pitches": 473.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.1,
            "ER": 1.0,
            "R": 1.2,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 4.8,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 25.4,
            "Pitches": 94.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.4211,
            "WHIP": 1.1368,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.15789,
            "H_per_IP": 0.78947,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.34737,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.75789,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09474
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 59.2,
            "ER": 15.0,
            "R": 16.0,
            "H": 48.0,
            "BB": 23.0,
            "SO": 52.0,
            "HR": 8.0,
            "BF": 243.0,
            "Pitches": 969.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.5,
            "R": 1.6,
            "H": 4.8,
            "BB": 2.3,
            "SO": 5.2,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 24.3,
            "Pitches": 96.9
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.2626,
            "WHIP": 1.1899,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.2514,
            "H_per_IP": 0.80447,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.38547,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.87151,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13408
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 29,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 168.0,
            "ER": 56.0,
            "R": 58.0,
            "H": 130.0,
            "BB": 66.0,
            "SO": 144.0,
            "HR": 18.0,
            "BF": 686.0,
            "Pitches": 2700.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 1.931,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 4.4828,
            "BB": 2.2759,
            "SO": 4.9655,
            "HR": 0.6207,
            "BF": 23.6552,
            "Pitches": 93.1034
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.0,
            "WHIP": 1.1667,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.33333,
            "H_per_IP": 0.77381,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.39286,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.85714,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10714
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.0,
        "predicted_ER": 1.618,
        "predicted_H": 4.967,
        "predicted_BB": 2.246,
        "predicted_SO": 5.073,
        "predicted_HR": 0.705,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.3989,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1881
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4121,
      "form_weight": 0.5879,
      "form_reliability": 0.8529,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 29.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8529,
        "prior_weight": 0.1471
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 6.0,
          "final": 6.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 1.618,
          "final": 2.1876,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
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        {
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          "step": "current_json_final",
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
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        "win_pct": 0.5374,
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        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1293,
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        "available": true,
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      },
      "opponent": {
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        "games": 148,
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        "losses": 86,
        "win_pct": 0.4189,
        "runs_scored": 622.0,
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          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.9,
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      "edges": {
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      "player_factors": {
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        "strikeout": 1.0127
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "650633",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "650633",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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            "xwoba": 0.321,
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          "league_medians": {
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            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
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          "components": {
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            "hard_hit_edge": 0.7143,
            "whiff_edge": -0.0143,
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            "pitch_design_score": -0.0506
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "650633",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 94,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 94,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.94608716486087,
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              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
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              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
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            },
            "pitch_mix": [
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                "pitches": 94,
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                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
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            "summary": {
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            "components": {
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            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
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          "sample_weight": 1.0,
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          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_id": "650633",
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            "player_name": "Michael King",
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            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 12,
            "espn_total_ranked": 859,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 12,
              "gp_value": 29.0,
              "gp_rank": 242,
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              "k_rank": 38,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.714286,
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              "whip_value": 1.1666,
              "whip_rank": 23.0,
              "war_value": 4.14,
              "war_rank": 11.0
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            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.007,
            "adjusted": 1
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          "predicted_H": {
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          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
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          "predicted_HR": {
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          "predicted_SO": {
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            "factor": 0.9937,
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    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
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      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
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      "predicted_SO": 9,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 25,
      "Pitches": 108,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
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  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was +2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260912_SD@SF.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260912

20260912_SD@SF

home

Cesar Perdomo

True

5.0

4.2

-1

5/10

1/2

5/3

Last 10 before this game (2 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 2,
      "role_avg_IP": 6.0,
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    "savant": {
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      "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
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      "hard_hit_percent": 40.0,
      "whiff_percent": 30.7
    },
    "espn_rank": {
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              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.1978,
          "sample_weight": 0.45,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9832,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.017,
          "walk_factor": 0.9685,
          "homer_factor": 0.9665,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.039,
          "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "702885",
            "espn_id": 5271881,
            "player_name": "Cesar Perdomo",
            "team": "SF",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 271,
            "espn_total_ranked": 859,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 271,
              "gp_value": 2.0,
              "gp_rank": 752,
              "gs_value": 1.0,
              "gs_rank": 297,
              "qs_value": 1.0,
              "qs_rank": 178,
              "era_value": 0.9,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 0.0,
              "w_rank": 535,
              "l_value": 0.0,
              "l_rank": 574,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 250,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 353,
              "ip_value": 10.0,
              "ip_rank": 622,
              "h_value": 6.0,
              "h_rank": 703,
              "er_value": 1.0,
              "er_rank": 782,
              "hr_value": 1.0,
              "hr_rank": 614,
              "bb_value": 2.0,
              "bb_rank": 716,
              "k_value": 8.0,
              "k_rank": 625,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.2,
              "k_per_9_rank": 27.0,
              "whip_value": 0.8,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.46,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9924,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9924,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9858,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9849,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0076,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 94,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 2 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +3."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 5",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +5."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260912_SD@SF.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260912

20260912_SEA@OAK

away

Bryan Woo

True

5.2

6.0

-2

5/3

0/2

5/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.029850746268656,
      "WHIP": 1.0554371002132195,
      "IP": 156.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 27,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.79,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.8,
      "last_start_IP": 8.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.215,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9817,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0149,
      "walk_factor": 0.92,
      "homer_factor": 1.0176,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 25.0,
      "bb_percent": 5.2,
      "woba": 0.28,
      "xwoba": 0.292,
      "barrel_percent": 7.4,
      "hard_hit_percent": 43.0,
      "whiff_percent": 24.6
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 102,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 27.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
        "prior_weight": 0.1562
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "693433",
      "report_date": "20260912",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 27,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 29.0,
            "ER": 9.0,
            "R": 10.0,
            "H": 17.0,
            "BB": 6.0,
            "SO": 31.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 110.0,
            "Pitches": 444.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 3.4,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 6.2,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 22.0,
            "Pitches": 88.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.7931,
            "WHIP": 0.7931,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.31034,
            "H_per_IP": 0.58621,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.2069,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.06897,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.17241
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 57.0,
            "ER": 24.0,
            "R": 27.0,
            "H": 49.0,
            "BB": 14.0,
            "SO": 61.0,
            "HR": 9.0,
            "BF": 234.0,
            "Pitches": 906.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.7,
            "H": 4.9,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 6.1,
            "HR": 0.9,
            "BF": 23.4,
            "Pitches": 90.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.7895,
            "WHIP": 1.1053,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.42105,
            "H_per_IP": 0.85965,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.24561,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.07018,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15789
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 27,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 156.1,
            "ER": 70.0,
            "R": 75.0,
            "H": 132.0,
            "BB": 33.0,
            "SO": 158.0,
            "HR": 18.0,
            "BF": 633.0,
            "Pitches": 2395.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.5926,
            "R": 2.7778,
            "H": 4.8889,
            "BB": 1.2222,
            "SO": 5.8519,
            "HR": 0.6667,
            "BF": 23.4444,
            "Pitches": 88.7037
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.0299,
            "WHIP": 1.0554,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.44776,
            "H_per_IP": 0.84435,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.21109,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.01066,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11514
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.246,
        "predicted_H": 4.368,
        "predicted_BB": 1.386,
        "predicted_SO": 5.89,
        "predicted_HR": 0.875,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.5674,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.0155
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.416,
      "form_weight": 0.584,
      "form_reliability": 0.8438,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 27.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
        "prior_weight": 0.1562
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.246,
          "final": 2.1437,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.368,
          "final": 4.6309,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.386,
          "final": 0.8094,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 5.89,
          "final": 4.6878,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.875,
          "final": 0.511,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.5674,
          "final": 3.5674,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.0155,
          "final": 1.0155,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 57.0,
        "ER": 24,
        "H": 49,
        "BB": 14,
        "SO": 61,
        "HR": 9,
        "ERA": 3.789473684210526,
        "WHIP": 1.105263157894737,
        "K9": 9.631578947368421,
        "HR9": 1.4210526315789473,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 5,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-06T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9238839129372654,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 3.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 27.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8438,
          "prior_weight": 0.1562
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.2,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 5,
          "predicted_BB": 0,
          "predicted_SO": 6,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "693433",
      "player_name": "Bryan Woo",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "SEA",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 3.0,
              "percent_delta": 1.0,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 1,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 3.0,
              "percent_delta": 1.0,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.2,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.1667,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.1667,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 2.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.6667,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 2,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 1,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 2.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.6667,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "SEA",
        "games": 148,
        "wins": 69,
        "losses": 79,
        "win_pct": 0.4662,
        "runs_scored": 586.0,
        "runs_allowed": 661.0,
        "run_differential": -75.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.5068,
        "avg_runs_scored": 3.9595,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4662,
        "offense_index": 0.8795,
        "defense_index": 1.008,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.0,
          "run_differential": -2.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0906
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "OAK",
        "games": 148,
        "wins": 60,
        "losses": 88,
        "win_pct": 0.4054,
        "runs_scored": 647.0,
        "runs_allowed": 833.0,
        "run_differential": -186.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.2568,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3716,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.6284,
        "offense_index": 0.9711,
        "defense_index": 0.7998,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8,
          "run_differential": 12.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.164
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0734,
        "offense_edge": -0.1205,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0289,
        "defense_strength": 0.008,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.2002,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0043,
        "run_prevention": 0.9909,
        "strikeout": 1.0045
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "693433",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "693433",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 604.0,
            "k_percent": 25.0,
            "bb_percent": 5.2,
            "woba": 0.28,
            "xwoba": 0.292,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 35.4,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.4,
            "hard_hit_percent": 43.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.0819,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.38,
            "whiff_percent": 24.6,
            "swing_percent": 53.2
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 130.5,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.3165,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6397,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9178,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.248,
            "command_and_miss": 0.3729,
            "regression_edge": -0.3429,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.5429,
            "barrel_edge": -0.0667,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.7143,
            "whiff_edge": -0.0571,
            "bb_edge": 1.0,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.168
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "693433",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 86,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 86,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 92.84822141045018,
              "release_spin_rate": 2269.5437511638643,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 86,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 92.84822141045018,
                "release_spin_rate": 2269.5437511638643,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 92.8482,
              "release_spin_rate": 2269.5438,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.168,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 1.1997,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.215,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9817,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0149,
          "walk_factor": 0.92,
          "homer_factor": 1.0176,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.012,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "693433",
            "espn_id": 4629089,
            "player_name": "Bryan Woo",
            "team": "SEA",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 102,
            "espn_total_ranked": 859,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 102,
              "gp_value": 27.0,
              "gp_rank": 294,
              "gs_value": 27.0,
              "gs_rank": 43,
              "qs_value": 15.0,
              "qs_rank": 18,
              "era_value": 4.0298,
              "era_rank": 37.0,
              "w_value": 11.0,
              "w_rank": 24,
              "l_value": 9.0,
              "l_rank": 32,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 250,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 353,
              "ip_value": 156.1,
              "ip_rank": 35,
              "h_value": 132.0,
              "h_rank": 56,
              "er_value": 70.0,
              "er_rank": 32,
              "hr_value": 18.0,
              "hr_rank": 59,
              "bb_value": 33.0,
              "bb_rank": 140,
              "k_value": 158.0,
              "k_rank": 27,
              "k_per_9_value": 9.095948,
              "k_per_9_rank": 20.0,
              "whip_value": 1.0554,
              "whip_rank": 11.0,
              "war_value": 1.68,
              "war_rank": 34.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9817,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9817,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.92,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0176,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0149,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 94,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260912_SEA@OAK.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260912

20260912_SEA@OAK

home

Gage Jump

True

4.1

2.0

-7

5/5

1/1

7/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 5.120689655172414,
      "WHIP": 1.489655172413793,
      "IP": 96.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 19,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.088,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.8,
      "last_start_IP": 4.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.1338,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0114,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.02,
      "walk_factor": 1.028,
      "homer_factor": 1.0125,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 24.9,
      "bb_percent": 10.6,
      "woba": 0.333,
      "xwoba": 0.326,
      "barrel_percent": 6.6,
      "hard_hit_percent": 39.5,
      "whiff_percent": 25.6
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 209,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 19.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7917,
        "prior_weight": 0.2083
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "695611",
      "report_date": "20260912",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 19,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 24.0,
            "ER": 19.0,
            "R": 19.0,
            "H": 26.0,
            "BB": 12.0,
            "SO": 22.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 110.0,
            "Pitches": 454.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 3.8,
            "R": 3.8,
            "H": 5.2,
            "BB": 2.4,
            "SO": 4.4,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 22.0,
            "Pitches": 90.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 7.125,
            "WHIP": 1.5833,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.79167,
            "H_per_IP": 1.08333,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.5,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.91667,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.125
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 48.0,
            "ER": 36.0,
            "R": 37.0,
            "H": 51.0,
            "BB": 30.0,
            "SO": 58.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 221.0,
            "Pitches": 902.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 3.6,
            "R": 3.7,
            "H": 5.1,
            "BB": 3.0,
            "SO": 5.8,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 22.1,
            "Pitches": 90.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.75,
            "WHIP": 1.6875,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.75,
            "H_per_IP": 1.0625,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.625,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.20833,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.125
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 19,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 96.2,
            "ER": 55.0,
            "R": 57.0,
            "H": 99.0,
            "BB": 45.0,
            "SO": 106.0,
            "HR": 10.0,
            "BF": 425.0,
            "Pitches": 1712.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.8947,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 5.2105,
            "BB": 2.3684,
            "SO": 5.5789,
            "HR": 0.5263,
            "BF": 22.3684,
            "Pitches": 90.1053
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.1207,
            "WHIP": 1.4897,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.56897,
            "H_per_IP": 1.02414,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.46552,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.09655,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10345
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.2,
        "predicted_ER": 3.279,
        "predicted_H": 5.005,
        "predicted_BB": 2.405,
        "predicted_SO": 4.938,
        "predicted_HR": 0.603,
        "predicted_ERA": 6.1632,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.5473
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.438,
      "form_weight": 0.562,
      "form_reliability": 0.7917,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 19.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7917,
        "prior_weight": 0.2083
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.2,
          "final": 4.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 3.279,
          "final": 2.7188,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.005,
          "final": 5.0028,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.405,
          "final": 1.7896,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 4.938,
          "final": 5.8412,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 0.603,
          "final": 1.2149,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 6.1632,
          "final": 6.1632,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.5473,
          "final": 1.5473,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 48.0,
        "ER": 36,
        "H": 51,
        "BB": 30,
        "SO": 58,
        "HR": 6,
        "ERA": 6.750000000000001,
        "WHIP": 1.6875000000000002,
        "K9": 10.875000000000002,
        "HR9": 1.1250000000000002,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": true
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-06T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.2714990445162127,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 7.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 19.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7917,
          "prior_weight": 0.2083
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.1,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 5,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 7,
          "predicted_HR": 2
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_quality_floor",
        "description": "Weak starter floor restored expected damage from recent form instead of assigning it to zero-inning bullpen rows.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.1,
          "predicted_ER": 4,
          "predicted_H": 5,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 7,
          "predicted_HR": 2
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "695611",
      "player_name": "Gage Jump",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "OAK",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.1,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
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              "material": true
            },
            {
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              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
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              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
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              "delta": -0.9,
              "percent_delta": -0.18,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "starter_quality_floor",
          "description": "Weak starter floor restored expected damage from recent form instead of assigning it to zero-inning bullpen rows.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.1,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 4,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
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            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            {
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            {
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            {
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            "delta": 2.0,
            "percent_delta": 1.0,
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            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            "percent_delta": -0.18,
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            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 7.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
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          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            "delta": -0.9,
            "percent_delta": -0.18,
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            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "OAK",
        "games": 148,
        "wins": 60,
        "losses": 88,
        "win_pct": 0.4054,
        "runs_scored": 647.0,
        "runs_allowed": 833.0,
        "run_differential": -186.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.2568,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3716,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.6284,
        "offense_index": 0.9711,
        "defense_index": 0.7998,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8,
          "run_differential": 12.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.164
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "SEA",
        "games": 148,
        "wins": 69,
        "losses": 79,
        "win_pct": 0.4662,
        "runs_scored": 586.0,
        "runs_allowed": 661.0,
        "run_differential": -75.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.5068,
        "avg_runs_scored": 3.9595,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4662,
        "offense_index": 0.8795,
        "defense_index": 1.008,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.0,
          "run_differential": -2.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0906
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0734,
        "offense_edge": -0.0289,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.1205,
        "defense_strength": -0.2002,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.008,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9959,
        "run_prevention": 1.0044,
        "strikeout": 1.0074
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "695611",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "695611",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 404.0,
            "k_percent": 24.9,
            "bb_percent": 10.6,
            "woba": 0.333,
            "xwoba": 0.326,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 40.2,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.6,
            "hard_hit_percent": 39.5,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.9303,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.3916,
            "whiff_percent": 25.6,
            "swing_percent": 48.4
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 130.5,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.3165,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6397,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9178,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.3526,
            "command_and_miss": 0.1464,
            "regression_edge": 0.2,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.4286,
            "barrel_edge": 0.1111,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.2143,
            "whiff_edge": 0.0857,
            "bb_edge": -0.35,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0705
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "695611",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 94,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 94,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 91.10816450027431,
              "release_spin_rate": 2302.0143419416327,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 94,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 91.10816450027431,
                "release_spin_rate": 2302.0143419416327,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 91.1082,
              "release_spin_rate": 2302.0143,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0705,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.5037,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.1338,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0114,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.02,
          "walk_factor": 1.028,
          "homer_factor": 1.0125,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.007,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "695611",
            "espn_id": 5023852,
            "player_name": "Gage Jump",
            "team": "ATH",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 209,
            "espn_total_ranked": 859,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 209,
              "gp_value": 19.0,
              "gp_rank": 405,
              "gs_value": 19.0,
              "gs_rank": 105,
              "qs_value": 6.0,
              "qs_rank": 92,
              "era_value": 5.1206,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 6.0,
              "w_rank": 108,
              "l_value": 10.0,
              "l_rank": 20,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 250,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 353,
              "ip_value": 96.2,
              "ip_rank": 134,
              "h_value": 99.0,
              "h_rank": 118,
              "er_value": 55.0,
              "er_rank": 92,
              "hr_value": 10.0,
              "hr_rank": 162,
              "bb_value": 45.0,
              "bb_rank": 62,
              "k_value": 106.0,
              "k_rank": 90,
              "k_per_9_value": 9.868965,
              "k_per_9_rank": 18.0,
              "whip_value": 1.4896,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.81,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0114,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0114,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.028,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0125,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.02,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.1,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 20,
      "Pitches": 86,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -7 outs from the projected workload."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260912_SEA@OAK.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260912

20260912_TEX@ARI

away

Kumar Rocker

True

4.2

4.0

-2

-4

7/2

4/2

4/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.611386138613862,
      "WHIP": 1.4405940594059408,
      "IP": 134.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 27,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.875,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.333,
      "last_start_IP": 3.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.1625,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0138,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0023,
      "walk_factor": 1.002,
      "homer_factor": 1.0346,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 21.4,
      "bb_percent": 9.3,
      "woba": 0.338,
      "xwoba": 0.329,
      "barrel_percent": 7.6,
      "hard_hit_percent": 39.8,
      "whiff_percent": 26.0
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 235,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 27.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
        "prior_weight": 0.1562
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "677958",
      "report_date": "20260912",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 27,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 23.2,
            "ER": 14.0,
            "R": 15.0,
            "H": 28.0,
            "BB": 13.0,
            "SO": 24.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 112.0,
            "Pitches": 438.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.8,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 5.6,
            "BB": 2.6,
            "SO": 4.8,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 22.4,
            "Pitches": 87.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.3239,
            "WHIP": 1.7324,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.59155,
            "H_per_IP": 1.1831,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.5493,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.01408,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.16901
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 50.1,
            "ER": 32.0,
            "R": 33.0,
            "H": 58.0,
            "BB": 23.0,
            "SO": 53.0,
            "HR": 11.0,
            "BF": 231.0,
            "Pitches": 849.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 3.2,
            "R": 3.3,
            "H": 5.8,
            "BB": 2.3,
            "SO": 5.3,
            "HR": 1.1,
            "BF": 23.1,
            "Pitches": 84.9
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.7219,
            "WHIP": 1.6093,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.63576,
            "H_per_IP": 1.15232,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.45695,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.05298,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.21854
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 27,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 134.2,
            "ER": 69.0,
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          "per_game": {
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          "rates": {
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.2,
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
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      "adaptive_parameters": {
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        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 27.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 5.0,
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        "predicted_H": {
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        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 4.0,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
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          "final": 5.1972,
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.586,
          "final": 1.586,
          "source": "form_only"
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    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
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      "pitching": {
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        "games_pitched": 10,
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        "struggling_form": true
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      "fielding": {
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        "assists": 0,
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-04T00:00:00"
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    "recent_form_boost": 1.1538769418672061,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 5.0,
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          "predicted_BB": 4.0,
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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          "prior_size": 5.0,
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "677958",
      "player_name": "Kumar Rocker",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "TEX",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 4.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 5.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 7.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
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              "projection_effect": "worse",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 2.0,
              "percent_delta": 1.0,
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              "projection_effect": "better",
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
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            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.6667,
              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1,
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              "projection_effect": "worse",
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 5.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 7.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          {
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.6667,
            "after": 4.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.1,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
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            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 2.0,
            "percent_delta": 1.0,
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        ],
        "summary": {
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          "biggest_boost": {
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            "percent_delta": 1.0,
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            "projection_effect": "better",
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          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.1,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "TEX",
        "games": 148,
        "wins": 72,
        "losses": 76,
        "win_pct": 0.4865,
        "runs_scored": 611.0,
        "runs_allowed": 660.0,
        "run_differential": -49.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3311,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1284,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4595,
        "offense_index": 0.9171,
        "defense_index": 1.0095,
        "current_streak": "L3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.4,
          "run_differential": -5.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0869
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "ARI",
        "games": 148,
        "wins": 79,
        "losses": 69,
        "win_pct": 0.5338,
        "runs_scored": 657.0,
        "runs_allowed": 650.0,
        "run_differential": 7.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0473,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4392,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3919,
        "offense_index": 0.9861,
        "defense_index": 1.025,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.0,
          "run_differential": 2.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0695
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.1564,
        "offense_edge": -0.0829,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0139,
        "defense_strength": 0.0095,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.025,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9946,
        "run_prevention": 1.0046,
        "strikeout": 0.9964
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "677958",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "677958",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 569.0,
            "k_percent": 21.4,
            "bb_percent": 9.3,
            "woba": 0.338,
            "xwoba": 0.329,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 32.4,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.6,
            "hard_hit_percent": 39.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.9499,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.3778,
            "whiff_percent": 26.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.8
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 130.5,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.3165,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6397,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9178,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
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          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.334,
            "command_and_miss": 0.0064,
            "regression_edge": 0.2571,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.5143,
            "barrel_edge": -0.1111,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.2571,
            "whiff_edge": 0.1429,
            "bb_edge": -0.025,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0361
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "677958",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 87,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 87,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.20467080695931,
              "release_spin_rate": 2136.0321020952806,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 87,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.20467080695931,
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                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
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                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.2047,
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              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
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              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
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              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
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            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0361,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
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              "velocity_edge": -0.2577,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.1625,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0138,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0023,
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          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.009,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "677958",
            "espn_id": 4414525,
            "player_name": "Kumar Rocker",
            "team": "TEX",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 235,
            "espn_total_ranked": 859,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 235,
              "gp_value": 27.0,
              "gp_rank": 294,
              "gs_value": 24.0,
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              "qs_value": 6.0,
              "qs_rank": 92,
              "era_value": 4.6113,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 5.0,
              "w_rank": 149,
              "l_value": 11.0,
              "l_rank": 11,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 250,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
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              "ip_rank": 73,
              "h_value": 139.0,
              "h_rank": 40,
              "er_value": 69.0,
              "er_rank": 39,
              "hr_value": 20.0,
              "hr_rank": 40,
              "bb_value": 55.0,
              "bb_rank": 26,
              "k_value": 127.0,
              "k_rank": 57,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.487623,
              "k_per_9_rank": 21.0,
              "whip_value": 1.4405,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.62,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0138,
            "adjusted": 3
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          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0138,
            "adjusted": 5
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          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.002,
            "adjusted": 3
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          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0346,
            "adjusted": 1
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0023,
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      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.2,
      "predicted_H": 7,
      "predicted_R": 5,
      "predicted_ER": 5,
      "predicted_BB": 4,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 25,
      "Pitches": 108,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -4; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 5",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was -5."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260912_TEX@ARI.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260912

20260912_TEX@ARI

home

Brandon Pfaadt

True

6.1

6.2

6/10

1/0

4/7

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "ERA": 3.5284090909090913,
      "WHIP": 1.1505681818181819,
      "IP": 117.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 26,
      "role_avg_IP": 6.0,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.333,
      "last_start_IP": 6.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0227,
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      "strikeout_factor": 0.9429,
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      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 16.0,
      "bb_percent": 6.0,
      "woba": 0.294,
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      "barrel_percent": 7.5,
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      "effective_weights": {
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "predicted_WHIP": {
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    "recent_form_analysis": {
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        "hot_streak": false,
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      "pitching": {
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      "fielding": {
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      "games_count": 10,
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    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
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          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
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        {
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      "total_change": {
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        "changed_metrics": [
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      "opponent": {
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      "player_factors": {
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
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        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "694297",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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          "components": {
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "694297",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 92,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
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              "pitches": 92,
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              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
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              "xwoba": 0.0,
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            "pitch_mix": [
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                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.0762,
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            "components": {
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
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          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_name": "Brandon Pfaadt",
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            "espn_total_ranked": 859,
            "metrics": {
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              "whip_value": 1.1505,
              "whip_rank": null,
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              "war_rank": null
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            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
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          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.936,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9748,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9429,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.1,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 28,
      "Pitches": 112,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +2."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +4."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260912_TEX@ARI.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}