Continuous postgame learning

daily_20260909 · dates 20260909 · generated 2026-09-10T09:00:18.134456+00:00

10-5

Winner picks · 66.7%

Comparable starters · 0 identity mismatches

13/30

Starter ER within ±1

17/30

Starter workload within ±1 inning

Slate coverage

Every calendar day in the requested window is listed. Pending means the prediction exists but the official final result has not settled; Missing review artifact identifies a data gap instead of hiding the day.

Date	Games	Settled	Pending	Hits	Misses	Calibration traces	Review status	Pipeline versions
20260909	15	15	0	10	5	15	Available	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Prioritized optimization roadmap

Runtime evidence for the six recommendations. “Observed games” counts artifacts generated with the relevant trace; older artifacts remain honestly blank.

Priority	Change	Status	Observed games	Evidence
P1	Empirical Confidence Blend	Implemented And Applied	15	applied games: 15formula: w_emp=min(0.5,sample_size/200); final=(1-w_emp)raw+w_empempirical_hit_rate
P1	H2H Base Feature	Implemented And Monitored	15	available games: 15
P2	Score Distribution Widening	Implemented Above 1.4X	15	variance multipliers: [1.75]
P2	Simulation Flip Control	Diagnostic Only Without Independent Support	15	simulation flip candidates: 0published flips: 0
P3	Recent Form Quality Blend	Implemented Last 10	15	configured window: 10last 10 games: 15observed windows: [10]
P3	Continuous Calibration Audit	Implemented	15	settled games: 15metric: bucket_calibration_error

Confidence calibration by bucket

bucket_calibration_error = average published confidence − observed hit rate. Positive means overconfident; negative means underconfident. Weighted absolute error: 0.1069.

Bucket	Games	Average confidence	Observed hit rate	Calibration error	Direction
0.50-0.55	10	53.0%	60.0%	-7.0%	underconfident
0.55-0.60	4	57.8%	75.0%	-17.2%	underconfident
0.70-0.80	1	78.4%	100.0%	-21.6%	underconfident

Where the score pipeline gained or lost quality

Direct comparison against official final runs. Positive deltas mean the stage was worse than historical_ml; this is score error, not a synthetic one-game ERA.

Stage	Games	Team-run MAE	Total-run MAE	Margin MAE	Winner accuracy	Δ team MAE vs base	Δ margin MAE vs base
historical_ml	15	3.1009	4.83	3.1847	66.7%	0.0	0.0
variance_applied	15	3.1333	4.8	3.2	60.0%	0.0324	0.0153
enhanced_prediction	15	3.2667	5.2	3.3333	66.7%	0.1658	0.1486
embedded_savant_run_environment	15	3.2667	5.2	3.2	66.7%	0.1658	0.0153
fundamental_edge_target_review	15	3.2667	5.2	3.2	66.7%	0.1658	0.0153
capped_target	15	3.2667	5.2	3.2	66.7%	0.1658	0.0153
simulation_result	15	3.2667	5.2	3.2	66.7%	0.1658	0.0153
published_final	15	3.2667	5.2	3.2	66.7%	0.1658	0.0153

Largest measured regression

{
  "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
  "games": 15,
  "team_run_mae": 3.2667,
  "total_run_mae": 5.2,
  "margin_mae": 3.3333,
  "winner_hits": 10,
  "winner_accuracy": 0.6667,
  "team_run_mae_delta_vs_historical_ml": 0.1658,
  "margin_mae_delta_vs_historical_ml": 0.1486
}

Automatic questions

Which recorded score stage reinforced losing picks?

partial_attribution sample=5

Largest positive recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. Positive, negative, net, absolute, and unchanged movements are shown separately so opposite games cannot cancel into a misleading zero. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution.

Stage	Positive Toward Pick Run Delta	Negative Away From Pick Run Delta	Net Toward Pick Run Delta	Absolute Run Movement	Games Recorded	Games Supporting Pick	Games Opposing Pick	Games Unchanged	Meaning
enhanced_prediction	4.0	-1.0	3.0	5.0	5	3	1	1	reinforced final pick
variance_applied	1.39	-0.7642	0.6258	2.1542	5	3	2	0	reinforced final pick
embedded_savant_run_environment	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	5	0	0	5	recorded but did not change score margin
fundamental_edge_target_review	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	5	0	0	5	recorded but did not change score margin
capped_target	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	5	0	0	5	recorded but did not change score margin
simulation_result	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	5	0	0	5	recorded but did not change score margin

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "partial_attribution",
  "sample_size": 5,
  "top_stage": "enhanced_prediction",
  "ranking": [
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 4.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -1.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 3.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 5.0,
      "games_recorded": 5,
      "games_supporting_pick": 3,
      "games_opposing_pick": 1,
      "games_unchanged": 1,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.39,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -0.7642,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.6258,
      "absolute_run_movement": 2.1542,
      "games_recorded": 5,
      "games_supporting_pick": 3,
      "games_opposing_pick": 2,
      "games_unchanged": 0,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 5,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 5,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 5,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 5,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 5,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 5,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 5,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 5,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    }
  ],
  "interpretation": "Largest positive recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. Positive, negative, net, absolute, and unchanged movements are shown separately so opposite games cannot cancel into a misleading zero. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution."
}

Which recorded score stage reinforced winning picks?

partial_attribution sample=10

Stage	Positive Toward Pick Run Delta	Negative Away From Pick Run Delta	Net Toward Pick Run Delta	Absolute Run Movement	Games Recorded	Games Supporting Pick	Games Opposing Pick	Games Unchanged	Meaning
enhanced_prediction	4.0	-3.0	1.0	7.0	10	2	2	6	reinforced final pick
embedded_savant_run_environment	4.0	0.0	4.0	4.0	10	4	0	6	reinforced final pick
variance_applied	2.4192	-0.6803	1.7389	3.0995	10	8	2	0	reinforced final pick
fundamental_edge_target_review	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	10	0	0	10	recorded but did not change score margin
capped_target	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	10	0	0	10	recorded but did not change score margin
simulation_result	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	10	0	0	10	recorded but did not change score margin

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "partial_attribution",
  "sample_size": 10,
  "top_stage": "enhanced_prediction",
  "ranking": [
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 4.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -3.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 7.0,
      "games_recorded": 10,
      "games_supporting_pick": 2,
      "games_opposing_pick": 2,
      "games_unchanged": 6,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 4.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 4.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 4.0,
      "games_recorded": 10,
      "games_supporting_pick": 4,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 6,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 2.4192,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -0.6803,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.7389,
      "absolute_run_movement": 3.0995,
      "games_recorded": 10,
      "games_supporting_pick": 8,
      "games_opposing_pick": 2,
      "games_unchanged": 0,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 10,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 10,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 10,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 10,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 10,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 10,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    }
  ],
  "interpretation": "Largest positive recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. Positive, negative, net, absolute, and unchanged movements are shown separately so opposite games cannot cancel into a misleading zero. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution."
}

Are Overs performing worse than Unders?

not_measurable sample=0

The current artifacts contain predicted totals but no total line, Over/Under selection, price, or settled total bet.

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "The current artifacts contain predicted totals but no total line, Over/Under selection, price, or settled total bet.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "total_line",
    "total_selection",
    "odds",
    "settled_result"
  ]
}

Are hitter props outperforming pitcher props?

not_measurable sample=0

Player stat projections are not stored as priced, selected, and settled prop predictions.

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "Player stat projections are not stored as priced, selected, and settled prop predictions.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "prop_family",
    "prop_line",
    "selection",
    "odds",
    "settled_result"
  ]
}

Which sportsbooks produce better opportunities?

not_measurable sample=0

No settled prediction was linked to a sportsbook snapshot.

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "No settled prediction was linked to a sportsbook snapshot.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "sportsbook",
    "selection_odds",
    "settled_profit"
  ],
  "books": []
}

Which confidence ranges underperform?

insufficient_sample sample=15

Range	Sample Size	Hits	Misses	Accuracy
[0.000, 0.525)	5	4	1	0.8
[0.525, 0.550)	5	2	3	0.4
[0.550, 0.600)	4	3	1	0.75
[0.600, 1.010)	1	1	0	1.0

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 15,
  "minimum_recommended_sample": 20,
  "worst_observed_range": {
    "range": "[0.525, 0.550)",
    "sample_size": 5,
    "hits": 2,
    "misses": 3,
    "accuracy": 0.4
  },
  "ranges": [
    {
      "range": "[0.000, 0.525)",
      "sample_size": 5,
      "hits": 4,
      "misses": 1,
      "accuracy": 0.8
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.525, 0.550)",
      "sample_size": 5,
      "hits": 2,
      "misses": 3,
      "accuracy": 0.4
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.550, 0.600)",
      "sample_size": 4,
      "hits": 3,
      "misses": 1,
      "accuracy": 0.75
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.600, 1.010)",
      "sample_size": 1,
      "hits": 1,
      "misses": 0,
      "accuracy": 1.0
    }
  ]
}

Which monitored features are drifting?

insufficient_sample sample=15

Three slates are descriptive only and cannot establish statistical feature drift.

Date	Sample Size	Mean Confidence	Mean Predicted Total	Accuracy
20260909	15	0.5597	9.8	0.6667

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 15,
  "minimum_baseline_sample": 30,
  "minimum_recent_sample": 20,
  "reason": "Three slates are descriptive only and cannot establish statistical feature drift.",
  "daily_monitors": [
    {
      "date": "20260909",
      "sample_size": 15,
      "mean_confidence": 0.5597,
      "mean_predicted_total": 9.8,
      "accuracy": 0.6667
    }
  ],
  "features_monitored": [
    "confidence",
    "predicted_total",
    "winner_accuracy"
  ]
}

Which model version introduced errors?

insufficient_sample sample=15

Version error claims require at least 30 settled predictions per version.

Pipeline Version	Model Schema Version	Policy Version	Sample Size	Hits	Misses	Accuracy
enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	historical_game_temporal_v11	model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3	15	10	5	0.6667

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 15,
  "minimum_sample_per_version": 30,
  "versions": [
    {
      "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "sample_size": 15,
      "hits": 10,
      "misses": 5,
      "accuracy": 0.6667
    }
  ],
  "reason": "Version error claims require at least 30 settled predictions per version."
}

Game processing context

How each game moved from the historical model through confidence calibration, H2H and recent-form signals, score distribution and simulation policy. Postgame learning is added only after the official result settles.

20260909_ARI@KC

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickKC

Published scoreARI 5 - 7 KC

Final confidence53.0%

Calibrationraw 54.1% → blended 55.3%

Empirical signalhit rate 56.5% · weight 50.0% · n=345

H2H base featurehome net -3.0 · absolute 3.0 · n=2

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.6405

Simulation variance1.75

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.992667060453364-5.907846484740022	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-6	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-6	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-7	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-7	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-7	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-7	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "KC",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 7,
    "confidence": 0.06,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.53,
    "away_win_probability": 0.47
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.06,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "KC wins 7-5",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 7
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 7,
    "predicted_score_text": "ARI 5 - 7 KC",
    "confidence": 0.53,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.540587,
    "sample_size": 345,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5652,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.552893,
    "published_confidence": 0.53,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 2,
    "sample_weight": 0.03,
    "home_net_margin": -3.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 3.0,
    "home_average_margin": -1.5,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0225,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0225,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.7808,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.38,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.6405
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.017901948394591083
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.017666259700198837
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.017471540068109245
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.01724151792879179
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.016459864351581685
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.028825942461553084,
      "1": 0.048402500029792184,
      "2": 0.07307756679990754,
      "3": 0.09920472772897182,
      "4": 0.12109122331369927,
      "5": 0.132899996646987,
      "6": 0.13115029734029443,
      "7": 0.1163712221364218,
      "8": 0.09284401590861392,
      "9": 0.06660306962306939,
      "10": 0.04296022823323445,
      "11": 0.024915575364806212,
      "12": 0.012992935049613172,
      "13": 0.006092220596270499,
      "14": 0.0025684787667651773
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.029962184331734535,
      "1": 0.05025973173737315,
      "2": 0.07565257233607664,
      "3": 0.10218427579902412,
      "4": 0.1238515031366244,
      "5": 0.13470239914409313,
      "6": 0.13146381120322884,
      "7": 0.11513144217399111,
      "8": 0.09047706618238203,
      "9": 0.0638028256926866,
      "10": 0.04037366314502945,
      "11": 0.0229252054211738,
      "12": 0.011681138011534524,
      "13": 0.00534089343792033,
      "14": 0.002191288247127232
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.75,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "score_text": "ARI 5 - 7 KC",
      "winner": "KC"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "score_text": "ARI 5 - 7 KC",
      "winner": "KC"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0138,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.73,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "winner": "KC",
      "model_winner": "KC",
      "simulation_winner": "KC",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
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        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667,
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        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
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      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
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      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 7
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      "score_reviewed": {
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    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
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    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
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          "blended_quality_edge": -0.6405
        },
        "margin_adjustment": -0.269,
        "reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
          "adjustment": -0.269,
          "cap": 1.4,
          "scale": 0.42,
          "quality_edge": -0.6405,
          "season_quality_edge": -0.7808,
          "recent_alignment": "aligned",
          "large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": false,
          "method": "standard_bounded_season_recent_adjustment"
        },
        "adjusted_score": {
          "away_runs": 4.916,
          "home_runs": 5.735,
          "home_win_probability": 0.5696
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      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
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          {
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        ],
        "home_distribution": {
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          "11": 0.021155811016628407,
          "12": 0.010347952861570925,
          "13": 0.0045121646881244445
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        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
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    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.992667060453364,
      "home_runs": 5.907846484740022,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260909_CHC@MIL

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickMIL

Published scoreCHC 5 - 6 MIL

Final confidence52.4%

Calibrationraw 57.1% → blended 55.8%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.4% · weight 50.0% · n=584

H2H base featurehome net 10.0 · absolute 10.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.2284

Simulation variance1.75

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.190505255263286-5.007151680609827	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-6	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-6	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-6	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-6	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-6	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIL",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "confidence": 0.048962,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.524481,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.524481,
    "away_win_probability": 0.475519
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.048962,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIL wins 6-5",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 6
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "predicted_score_text": "CHC 5 - 6 MIL",
    "confidence": 0.52448119,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.571291,
    "sample_size": 584,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5445,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.557895,
    "published_confidence": 0.524481,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 10.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 10.0,
    "home_average_margin": 2.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0577,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0577,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.3664,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.028,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.2284
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  "score_distribution": {
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        "away_runs": 5,
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      {
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    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.029816661153019446,
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      "2": 0.07532387780258556,
      "3": 0.10180575579740817,
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      "5": 0.13447988259211605,
      "6": 0.13143246340248896,
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    "away_distribution": {
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      "4": 0.1326514693476566,
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    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
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    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
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  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "CHC 5 - 6 MIL",
      "winner": "MIL"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
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      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "CHC 5 - 6 MIL",
      "winner": "MIL"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.1355,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.182,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "winner": "MIL",
      "model_winner": "MIL",
      "simulation_winner": "MIL",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "MIL",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5,
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
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        "home_runs": 6
      },
      "simulation_score": {
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    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
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      "winner": "MIL",
      "score_reviewed": {
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        "home_runs": 6,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "MIL",
    "display_confidence": 0.5245,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5683,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5245,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.2284,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.028,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.1355,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.5,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.5,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.5,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 7,
        "median": 11,
        "max": 11,
        "range": 4
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
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      "parent_config_id": "candidate-11bc4bc2dfc7264a",
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        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
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        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
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        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
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        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
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        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
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    }
  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
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    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
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      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-09T23:40:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.533884,
      "confidence": 0.533884,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "total_runs": 10
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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            "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
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            "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
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            "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
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    },
    "candidate_prediction": {
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        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
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        "away": {
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  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.190505255263286,
      "home_runs": 5.007151680609827,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260909_CIN@LAD

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickLAD

Published scoreCIN 5 - 8 LAD

Final confidence58.0%

Calibrationraw 80.0% → blended 68.5%

Empirical signalhit rate 57.0% · weight 50.0% · n=121

H2H base featurehome net 4.0 · absolute 4.0 · n=2

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 1.4599

Simulation variance1.75

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.759113036952583-6.088180593183264	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-6	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-7	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-8	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-8	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-8	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-8	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "LAD",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 8,
    "confidence": 0.16,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.58,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.58,
    "away_win_probability": 0.42
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.16,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "LAD wins 8-5",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 8
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 8,
    "predicted_score_text": "CIN 5 - 8 LAD",
    "confidence": 0.58,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.79981,
    "sample_size": 121,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5702,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.685005,
    "published_confidence": 0.58,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 2,
    "sample_weight": 0.03,
    "home_net_margin": 4.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 4.0,
    "home_average_margin": 2.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.03,
    "away_run_delta": -0.03,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 2.0241,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.412,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 1.4599
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 7,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.015107476240114858
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 8,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.014911077517152321
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 7,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.014808857033466627
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 8,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.014616340390469376
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.014158850283726605
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    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.01393578869468923,
      "1": 0.023734299415378086,
      "2": 0.037391635262104754,
      "3": 0.0544911129646857,
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      "8": 0.11127034681558011,
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      "11": 0.06702700777181778,
      "12": 0.04843726923787606,
      "13": 0.03237894151440218,
      "14": 0.020021601886170515,
      "15": 0.011452180210116951,
      "16": 0.006059415074128534,
      "17": 0.002965694489720736
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.0295129366070388,
      "1": 0.04952582648142998,
      "2": 0.07463681549511876,
      "3": 0.10101282881597447,
      "4": 0.12277276264662297,
      "5": 0.1340076484336478,
      "6": 0.13135881039981437,
      "7": 0.11563542210576938,
      "8": 0.09141650975053443,
      "9": 0.06490235339417279,
      "10": 0.04138074606001471,
      "11": 0.02369399271790863,
      "12": 0.012183729481378561,
      "13": 0.005626318422053014,
      "14": 0.002333299188521438
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.75,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 8,
      "score_text": "CIN 5 - 8 LAD",
      "winner": "LAD"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 8,
      "score_text": "CIN 5 - 8 LAD",
      "winner": "LAD"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.1018,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.762,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
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    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
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    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
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      "home_runs": 8,
      "winner": "LAD",
      "model_winner": "LAD",
      "simulation_winner": "LAD",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
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        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "LAD",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "LAD",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 3,
      "simulation_margin": 3,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
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      "model_score": {
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      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 8
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      "score_reviewed": {
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        "home_runs": 8,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
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    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
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    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
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        "median": 11,
        "max": 11,
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          "losses": 57,
          "win_pct": 0.6068965517241379,
          "runs_scored": 714,
          "runs_allowed": 558,
          "run_differential": 156,
          "run_differential_per_game": 1.0758620689655172,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "CIN",
          "games": 145,
          "wins": 69,
          "losses": 76,
          "win_pct": 0.47586206896551725,
          "runs_scored": 610,
          "runs_allowed": 719,
          "run_differential": -109,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.7517241379310344,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 1.8276,
        "win_pct_edge": 0.131,
        "quality_edge": 1.4599,
        "season_quality_edge": 2.0241,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": 2.0241,
          "recent_quality_edge": 0.412,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": 1.4599
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 0.6132,
        "reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
          "adjustment": 0.6132,
          "cap": 1.4,
          "scale": 0.42,
          "quality_edge": 1.4599,
          "season_quality_edge": 2.0241,
          "recent_alignment": "aligned",
          "large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": false,
          "method": "standard_bounded_season_recent_adjustment"
        },
        "adjusted_score": {
          "away_runs": 2.628,
          "home_runs": 9.333,
          "home_win_probability": 0.92
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      },
      "score_distribution": {
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          {
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          {
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        ],
        "home_distribution": {
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        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
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    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.759113036952583,
      "home_runs": 6.088180593183264,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 8,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 8,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 8,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 8,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260909_CLE@BAL

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickCLE

Published scoreCLE 4 - 3 BAL

Final confidence55.8%

Calibrationraw 61.0% → blended 57.8%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.5% · weight 50.0% · n=539

H2H base featurehome net -6.0 · absolute 6.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.2765

Simulation variance1.75

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.408559494701625-4.30285158784741	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-3	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-3	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-3	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-3	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-3	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "CLE",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "confidence": -0.11593,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.557965,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.442035,
    "away_win_probability": 0.557965
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.11593,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "CLE wins 4-3",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "predicted_score_text": "CLE 4 - 3 BAL",
    "confidence": 0.5579654525,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.61,
    "sample_size": 539,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5455,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.57775,
    "published_confidence": 0.557965,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -6.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 6.0,
    "home_average_margin": -1.2,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0346,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0346,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.1712,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.472,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.2765
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.032528471456464064
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.031874140214792644
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.03162872537471716
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.030992493107405678
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.02835992582123969
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.0944706046631081,
      "1": 0.15006095585440743,
      "2": 0.19179805464195535,
      "3": 0.19725415652738648,
      "4": 0.16323512078923325,
      "5": 0.10869423805811163,
      "6": 0.058237794030148726,
      "7": 0.02510780723983891,
      "8": 0.008709999528296392,
      "9": 0.0024312686675137204
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05910637569056112,
      "1": 0.09674103603679651,
      "2": 0.1352705936319282,
      "3": 0.16158919424527962,
      "4": 0.16490639299632634,
      "5": 0.1437735271109597,
      "6": 0.10708696729157163,
      "7": 0.06814132427040799,
      "8": 0.037042541581939745,
      "9": 0.017203120932331884,
      "10": 0.0068254291853656265,
      "11": 0.0023134970265316465
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    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.75,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "CLE 4 - 3 BAL",
      "winner": "CLE"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "CLE 4 - 3 BAL",
      "winner": "CLE"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0799,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.542,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "winner": "CLE",
      "model_winner": "CLE",
      "simulation_winner": "CLE",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "CLE",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "CLE",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.2765,
      "winner": "CLE",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "CLE",
    "display_confidence": 0.558,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6393,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.558,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.2765,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.472,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0799,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 1.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 5,
        "median": 6,
        "max": 6,
        "range": 1
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
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      "config_hash": "sha256:4c40ee6a3671b3a7c2775a53d9c67b935e269d408c98251960ad257a5d502c6c",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-11bc4bc2dfc7264a",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-09T13:40:22.642803+00:00",
      "parameters": {
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        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.75,
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        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
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        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
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        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
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        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
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        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
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        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
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        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
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        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
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        "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
        "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
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        "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
        "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
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    }
  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
      "config_id": "candidate-beeea24799c2c165-registry-572db7e04317",
      "config_hash": "sha256:572db7e04317a216045766487f754995efb5508ae620b5a5f13a0292cb5134dd",
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    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-09T21:36:19.714441+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-09T22:35:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "away",
      "home_win_probability": 0.419771,
      "confidence": 0.580229,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "total_runs": 6
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
          "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
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    },
    {
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      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
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    }
  ]
}

20260909_COL@NYY

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickNYY

Published scoreCOL 4 - 9 NYY

Final confidence78.4%

Calibrationraw 92.0% → blended 74.2%

Empirical signalhit rate 56.3% · weight 50.0% · n=119

H2H base featurehome net 2.0 · absolute 2.0 · n=1

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 1.5709

Simulation variance1.75

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.037428549881814-5.580220410722117	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-6	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-8	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-9	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-9	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-9	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-9	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
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  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYY",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 9,
    "confidence": 0.567732,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.783866,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.783866,
    "away_win_probability": 0.216134
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.567732,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYY wins 9-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 9
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 9,
    "predicted_score_text": "COL 4 - 9 NYY",
    "confidence": 0.783866,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.92,
    "sample_size": 119,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.563,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.7415,
    "published_confidence": 0.783866,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
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    "sample_size": 1,
    "sample_weight": 0.0167,
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    "absolute_net_margin": 2.0,
    "home_average_margin": 2.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0167,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0167,
    "evidence": [
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        "home_margin": 2.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
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      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
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    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 2.0938,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.6,
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    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
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  "score_distribution": {
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      {
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        "away_runs": 4,
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    "home_distribution": {
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    "away_distribution": {
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    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
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    "margin_widening_capped": false,
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        "available": true,
        "sample_size": 1,
        "sample_weight": 0.0167,
        "home_net_margin": 2.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 2.0,
        "home_average_margin": 2.0,
        "home_run_delta": 0.0167,
        "away_run_delta": -0.0167,
        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": 2.0
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        ],
        "adaptive_parameters": {
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          "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
          "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
          "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
        }
      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "home": {
          "team": "NYY",
          "games": 144,
          "wins": 82,
          "losses": 62,
          "win_pct": 0.5694444444444444,
          "runs_scored": 651,
          "runs_allowed": 532,
          "run_differential": 119,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.8263888888888888,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "COL",
          "games": 144,
          "wins": 55,
          "losses": 89,
          "win_pct": 0.3819444444444444,
          "runs_scored": 682,
          "runs_allowed": 824,
          "run_differential": -142,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.9861111111111112,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 1.8125,
        "win_pct_edge": 0.1875,
        "quality_edge": 1.5709,
        "season_quality_edge": 2.0938,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": 2.0938,
          "recent_quality_edge": 0.6,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": 1.5709
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 2.5134,
        "reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
          "adjustment": 2.5134,
          "cap": 4.0,
          "scale": 1.6,
          "quality_edge": 1.5709,
          "season_quality_edge": 2.0938,
          "recent_alignment": "aligned",
          "large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": true,
          "method": "supported_large_edge_up_to_four_runs"
        },
        "adjusted_score": {
          "away_runs": 2.805,
          "home_runs": 9.782,
          "home_win_probability": 0.92
        }
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
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            "away_runs": 4,
            "probability": 0.01699980615831595
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          {
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            "away_runs": 4,
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          {
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        ],
        "home_distribution": {
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        "away_distribution": {
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          "10": 0.013364035690188873,
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        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
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    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.037428549881814,
      "home_runs": 5.580220410722117,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 8,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 9,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 9,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 9,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 9,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260909_HOU@PHI

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickPHI

Published scoreHOU 3 - 4 PHI

Final confidence52.0%

Calibrationraw 51.0% → blended 52.8%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.5% · weight 50.0% · n=585

H2H base featurehome net -1.0 · absolute 1.0 · n=1

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.3779

Simulation variance1.75

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.325769620424263-5.113100220436223	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	3-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	3-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	3-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	3-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	3-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "PHI",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": 0.039394,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.519697,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.519697,
    "away_win_probability": 0.480303
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.039394,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "PHI wins 4-3",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "HOU 3 - 4 PHI",
    "confidence": 0.519696795,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5101,
    "sample_size": 585,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5453,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.5277,
    "published_confidence": 0.519697,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 1,
    "sample_weight": 0.0167,
    "home_net_margin": -1.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 1.0,
    "home_average_margin": -1.0,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0083,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0083,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.5621,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.036,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.3779
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03678177757161549
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.034779657846165005
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.034160894321129134
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03245714220687652
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.032301435510956183
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.0838963644893374,
      "1": 0.1344926213903491,
      "2": 0.17669646366389646,
      "3": 0.19025292379879527,
      "4": 0.16788384386775368,
      "5": 0.12141170315953784,
      "6": 0.0719591925006048,
      "7": 0.0349531317205096,
      "8": 0.013914255975169482,
      "9": 0.004539499434046329
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.08805339557447828,
      "1": 0.14065080112985234,
      "2": 0.18280748149209383,
      "3": 0.19333094512920387,
      "4": 0.1663659467871197,
      "5": 0.11648852630814098,
      "6": 0.06636781495322815,
      "7": 0.030767169291412537,
      "8": 0.011605750133041857,
      "9": 0.0035621692014285123
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.75,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "HOU 3 - 4 PHI",
      "winner": "PHI"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "HOU 3 - 4 PHI",
      "winner": "PHI"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.077,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.314,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "PHI",
      "model_winner": "PHI",
      "simulation_winner": "PHI",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 3,
        "published_winner": "PHI",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "PHI",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.3779,
      "winner": "PHI",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "PHI",
    "display_confidence": 0.5197,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6264,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5197,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.3779,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.036,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.077,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 1.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 3,
        "median": 5,
        "max": 5,
        "range": 2
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-11bc4bc2dfc7264a-registry-4c40ee6a3671",
      "config_hash": "sha256:4c40ee6a3671b3a7c2775a53d9c67b935e269d408c98251960ad257a5d502c6c",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-11bc4bc2dfc7264a",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-09T13:40:22.642803+00:00",
      "parameters": {
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        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
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        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.75,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
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        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
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        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
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        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
        "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
        "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
        "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
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        "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
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        "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
        "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
        "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
        "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
        "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
      }
    }
  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
      "config_id": "candidate-beeea24799c2c165-registry-572db7e04317",
      "config_hash": "sha256:572db7e04317a216045766487f754995efb5508ae620b5a5f13a0292cb5134dd",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-beeea24799c2c165",
      "parent_config_hash": "sha256:ed8620a946c5b9ff74c187780441f57f9b765a55832e8c9d3f218ec7008f1d67"
    },
    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-09T21:36:20.271031+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-09T22:40:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.527262,
      "confidence": 0.527262,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "total_runs": 6
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
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        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
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    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.325769620424263,
      "home_runs": 5.113100220436223,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260909_LAA@BOS

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickBOS

Published scoreLAA 4 - 5 BOS

Final confidence52.9%

Calibrationraw 51.0% → blended 53.0%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.0% · weight 50.0% · n=531

H2H base featurehome net 10.0 · absolute 10.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.9166

Simulation variance1.75

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.091769214880556-5.509167956511321	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-6	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "BOS",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.057406,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.528703,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.528703,
    "away_win_probability": 0.471297
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.057406,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "BOS wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "LAA 4 - 5 BOS",
    "confidence": 0.52870348,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5101,
    "sample_size": 531,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5499,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.53,
    "published_confidence": 0.528703,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 10.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 10.0,
    "home_average_margin": 2.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0577,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0577,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 7.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 1.3455,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.12,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.9166
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02554015274185614
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02420670291361392
      },
      {
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        "probability": 0.023241266475598547
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    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05119509163299771,
      "1": 0.08434931901960634,
      "2": 0.1203108508510681,
      "3": 0.14855866123167952,
      "4": 0.1588038829388168,
      "5": 0.14695833362544045,
      "6": 0.11773274821496675,
      "7": 0.08165265414084179,
      "8": 0.049024513421819384,
      "9": 0.025481573302413688,
      "10": 0.011465926342771745,
      "11": 0.004466445277577707
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.053419727983968435,
      "1": 0.08785048684106384,
      "2": 0.12460490052165134,
      "3": 0.15243142967064705,
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      "5": 0.14635200377658794,
      "6": 0.11486386427262851,
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    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
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    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
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      "thresholds": {
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    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
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        "home_net_margin": 10.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 10.0,
        "home_average_margin": 2.0,
        "home_run_delta": 0.0577,
        "away_run_delta": -0.0577,
        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": -5.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 3.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 2.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 7.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 3.0
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        ],
        "adaptive_parameters": {
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          "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
          "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
          "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
        }
      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "home": {
          "team": "BOS",
          "games": 146,
          "wins": 80,
          "losses": 66,
          "win_pct": 0.547945205479452,
          "runs_scored": 648,
          "runs_allowed": 564,
          "run_differential": 84,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.5753424657534246,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "LAA",
          "games": 145,
          "wins": 55,
          "losses": 90,
          "win_pct": 0.3793103448275862,
          "runs_scored": 585,
          "runs_allowed": 660,
          "run_differential": -75,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.5172413793103449,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 1.0926,
        "win_pct_edge": 0.1686,
        "quality_edge": 0.9166,
        "season_quality_edge": 1.3455,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": 1.3455,
          "recent_quality_edge": 0.12,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": 0.9166
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 0.385,
        "reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
          "adjustment": 0.385,
          "cap": 1.4,
          "scale": 0.42,
          "quality_edge": 0.9166,
          "season_quality_edge": 1.3455,
          "recent_alignment": "aligned",
          "large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": false,
          "method": "standard_bounded_season_recent_adjustment"
        },
        "adjusted_score": {
          "away_runs": 2.83,
          "home_runs": 4.995,
          "home_win_probability": 0.6841
        }
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 4,
            "probability": 0.026798827914245416
          },
          {
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            "away_runs": 3,
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          {
            "home_runs": 3,
            "away_runs": 4,
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          },
          {
            "home_runs": 5,
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          },
          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 5,
            "probability": 0.024247638653852103
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        ],
        "home_distribution": {
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          "1": 0.08315591947606239,
          "2": 0.12118901318734256,
          "3": 0.15156800340275062,
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          "5": 0.1498368710169192,
          "6": 0.1184365042202498,
          "7": 0.08033904532735803,
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        "away_distribution": {
          "0": 0.05118224695955366,
          "1": 0.0867471735400548,
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          "3": 0.1556290094612569,
          "4": 0.16473648235582014,
          "5": 0.1490539328829107,
          "6": 0.11527934698449073,
          "7": 0.07621035634302158,
          "8": 0.043065638790733704,
          "9": 0.02080186201349886,
          "10": 0.00858871013048792,
          "11": 0.0030311546618149742
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.091769214880556,
      "home_runs": 5.509167956511321,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260909_MIN@DET

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickDET

Published scoreMIN 4 - 5 DET

Final confidence52.4%

Calibrationraw 51.0% → blended 52.9%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.7% · weight 50.0% · n=616

H2H base featurehome net -18.0 · absolute 18.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.1979

Simulation variance1.75

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.15663955761153-4.78805449901753	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "DET",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.047888,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.523944,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.523944,
    "away_win_probability": 0.476056
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.047888,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "DET wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "MIN 4 - 5 DET",
    "confidence": 0.5239443725,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5101,
    "sample_size": 616,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5471,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.5286,
    "published_confidence": 0.523944,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -18.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 18.0,
    "home_average_margin": -3.6,
    "home_run_delta": -0.1038,
    "away_run_delta": 0.1038,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -13.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -10.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.6448,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.632,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.1979
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.022126206717257162
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.0219155156831729
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.021623143443704834
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      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.02141724269846985
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.01983933040578779
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04213454819837709,
      "1": 0.06994725361359387,
      "2": 0.10205424958851668,
      "3": 0.13086382826331466,
      "4": 0.14748105950015256,
      "5": 0.14607670956656477,
      "6": 0.12716096269149907,
      "7": 0.09728698341376013,
      "8": 0.06541596741123853,
      "9": 0.03865813515834663,
      "10": 0.020078262721778012,
      "11": 0.009165147651205742,
      "12": 0.0036768922216522115
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04389775868732117,
      "1": 0.0727656773566332,
      "2": 0.10569214566096434,
      "3": 0.13452120884558244,
      "4": 0.15002744618358452,
      "5": 0.1466164097070544,
      "6": 0.125552785627196,
      "7": 0.09421109112807126,
      "8": 0.06194548008853676,
      "9": 0.03569021146330182,
      "10": 0.018018578563017872,
      "11": 0.007971202512624082,
      "12": 0.0030900041761121417
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.75,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "MIN 4 - 5 DET",
      "winner": "DET"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "MIN 4 - 5 DET",
      "winner": "DET"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0101,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.702,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "DET",
      "model_winner": "DET",
      "simulation_winner": "DET",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 3,
        "published_winner": "DET",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667,
        "draw_majority_team": "DET",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.1979,
      "winner": "DET",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "DET",
    "display_confidence": 0.5239,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5487,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5239,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.1979,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.632,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0101,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.6667,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.3333,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 6,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 7,
        "range": 1
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
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      "parent_config_id": "candidate-11bc4bc2dfc7264a",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-09T13:40:22.642803+00:00",
      "parameters": {
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        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
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        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
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        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
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        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.75,
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        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
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        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
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        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
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        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
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        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
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        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
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        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
        "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
        "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
        "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
        "context.lineup_context_min": 0.8,
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        "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
        "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
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        "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
        "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
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        "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
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    }
  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
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      "config_hash": "sha256:572db7e04317a216045766487f754995efb5508ae620b5a5f13a0292cb5134dd",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-beeea24799c2c165",
      "parent_config_hash": "sha256:ed8620a946c5b9ff74c187780441f57f9b765a55832e8c9d3f218ec7008f1d67"
    },
    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-09T16:36:58.728334+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-09T17:10:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.533141,
      "confidence": 0.533141,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "total_runs": 9
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    },
    {
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    },
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    },
    {
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    },
    {
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    }
  ]
}

20260909_NYM@MIA

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickNYM

Published scoreNYM 7 - 4 MIA

Final confidence54.2%

Calibrationraw 70.3% → blended 62.5%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.6% · weight 50.0% · n=586

H2H base featurehome net 2.0 · absolute 2.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.0677

Simulation variance1.75

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.23325938591433-4.308617346224772	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	6-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, starter_quality_favours_the_other_side, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	7-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	7-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	7-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	7-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYM",
    "away_runs": 7,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": -0.083118,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.541559,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.458441,
    "away_win_probability": 0.541559
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.083118,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYM wins 7-4",
    "away_runs": 7,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 7,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "NYM 7 - 4 MIA",
    "confidence": 0.54155939,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.703064,
    "sample_size": 586,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5461,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.624582,
    "published_confidence": 0.541559,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 2.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 2.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.4,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0115,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0115,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
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        "home_margin": 4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
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      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
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  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
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    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.3842,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.52,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.0677
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  "score_distribution": {
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      {
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        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.01852424587116915
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      {
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    "home_distribution": {
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        "reasons": [
          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability"
        ],
        "score_coherence": {
          "policy": "probability_follows_published_score_v1",
          "published_score": {
            "away_runs": 6,
            "home_runs": 4
          },
          "margin": -2,
          "probability_before": 0.385003,
          "margin_implied_home_probability": 0.335008,
          "shrinkage_weight": 0.980629,
          "side_flipped": false,
          "applied": false,
          "magnitude_pull_suppressed": true,
          "probability_after": 0.385003,
          "aligned_pick_probability": 0.614997
        },
        "starter_experience": {
          "applied": true,
          "min_starter_games": 7,
          "per_starter_career_games": {
            "676083": 22,
            "476594": 7
          },
          "shrink_factor": 0.7292,
          "probability_before": 0.385003,
          "probability_after": 0.416148,
          "reason": "inexperienced starter (debut/thin history): confidence shrunk toward 0.5 by career-games factor; winner unchanged"
        }
      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
        "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
        "available": true,
        "sample_size": 5,
        "sample_weight": 0.0577,
        "home_net_margin": 2.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 2.0,
        "home_average_margin": 0.4,
        "home_run_delta": 0.0115,
        "away_run_delta": -0.0115,
        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": -2.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": -5.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 2.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 4.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 3.0
          }
        ],
        "adaptive_parameters": {
          "h2h.history_limit": 5,
          "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
          "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
          "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
        }
      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
        "applied": false,
        "home": {
          "team": "MIA",
          "games": 146,
          "wins": 72,
          "losses": 74,
          "win_pct": 0.4931506849315068,
          "runs_scored": 640,
          "runs_allowed": 632,
          "run_differential": 8,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.0547945205479452,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "NYM",
          "games": 145,
          "wins": 67,
          "losses": 78,
          "win_pct": 0.46206896551724136,
          "runs_scored": 612,
          "runs_allowed": 653,
          "run_differential": -41,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.2827586206896552,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 0.3376,
        "win_pct_edge": 0.0311,
        "quality_edge": 0.0677,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.3842,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": 0.3842,
          "recent_quality_edge": -0.52,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "conflict",
          "blended_quality_edge": 0.0677
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 0.0,
        "reason": "season quality edge below action threshold"
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 6,
            "probability": 0.01946540166546666
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 5,
            "away_runs": 6,
            "probability": 0.01945713170794525
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 5,
            "probability": 0.018687232951337347
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 5,
            "away_runs": 5,
            "probability": 0.01867929360205721
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 7,
            "probability": 0.01829561954710411
          }
        ],
        "home_distribution": {
          "0": 0.038812903706993106,
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          "2": 0.09961620375488944,
          "3": 0.1303794478762179,
          "4": 0.1491270535633374,
          "5": 0.14906369630929983,
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          "7": 0.09940477167742405,
          "8": 0.06631734471068909,
          "9": 0.038664747240858374,
          "10": 0.01970023338231707,
          "11": 0.008771941287096961,
          "12": 0.003413408067078063
        },
        "away_distribution": {
          "0": 0.021871442135816373,
          "1": 0.03808630905790035,
          "2": 0.05984470563107011,
          "3": 0.0848492413394583,
          "4": 0.10855143589539919,
          "5": 0.12531081721802065,
          "6": 0.13052897646904355,
          "7": 0.12268477858267063,
          "8": 0.10404945624530494,
          "9": 0.07962589504124103,
          "10": 0.05498373272859222,
          "11": 0.034259379528422576,
          "12": 0.01926150186879417,
          "13": 0.009771611270463325,
          "14": 0.004473089593638203,
          "15": 0.0018476273941643757
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.23325938591433,
      "home_runs": 4.308617346224772,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, starter_quality_favours_the_other_side, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260909_PIT@CHW

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickPIT

Published scorePIT 5 - 4 CHW

Final confidence59.8%

Calibrationraw 72.6% → blended 63.4%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.3% · weight 50.0% · n=188

H2H base featurehome net -6.0 · absolute 6.0 · n=1

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.0965

Simulation variance1.75

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	5.62940206667604-3.300820384346241	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	6-3	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "PIT",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": -0.196814,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.598407,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.401593,
    "away_win_probability": 0.598407
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.196814,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "PIT wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "PIT 5 - 4 CHW",
    "confidence": 0.59840705,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.726267,
    "sample_size": 188,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5426,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.634433,
    "published_confidence": 0.598407,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 1,
    "sample_weight": 0.0167,
    "home_net_margin": -6.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 6.0,
    "home_average_margin": -6.0,
    "home_run_delta": -0.05,
    "away_run_delta": 0.05,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -6.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.1143,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.488,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.0965
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.02310491452485665
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.022985273839681564
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.02190929435593256
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.02179584476988772
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.021750197535759904
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06169279984449325,
      "1": 0.10075630743476247,
      "2": 0.13997451749521725,
      "3": 0.16541111504319142,
      "4": 0.16627209669941936,
      "5": 0.14217165900460954,
      "6": 0.1034059819582197,
      "7": 0.06397602737632428,
      "8": 0.03366881633235266,
      "9": 0.015072226158535077,
      "10": 0.005739392548644554,
      "11": 0.001859060104230563
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.03299953526087521,
      "1": 0.05520997248906567,
      "2": 0.08245369096057983,
      "3": 0.10992223118350362,
      "4": 0.13081086945742387,
      "5": 0.1389584601595833,
      "6": 0.1317677156350496,
      "7": 0.11153621546402931,
      "8": 0.0842763377879482,
      "9": 0.05684316737218061,
      "10": 0.03422423481371273,
      "11": 0.018393826595160902,
      "12": 0.008824564713795864,
      "13": 0.003779178107091324
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.75,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "PIT 5 - 4 CHW",
      "winner": "PIT"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "PIT 5 - 4 CHW",
      "winner": "PIT"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0559,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.838,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "PIT",
      "model_winner": "PIT",
      "simulation_winner": "PIT",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 1,
        "published_winner": "PIT",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "PIT",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.0965,
      "winner": "PIT",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "PIT",
    "display_confidence": 0.5984,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5919,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5984,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.0965,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.488,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0559,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 9,
        "median": 9,
        "max": 9,
        "range": 0
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-11bc4bc2dfc7264a-registry-4c40ee6a3671",
      "config_hash": "sha256:4c40ee6a3671b3a7c2775a53d9c67b935e269d408c98251960ad257a5d502c6c",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-11bc4bc2dfc7264a",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-09T13:40:22.642803+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.75,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
        "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
        "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
        "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
        "context.lineup_context_min": 0.8,
        "context.lineup_context_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
        "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
        "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
        "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
        "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
        "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
        "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
      }
    }
  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
      "config_id": "candidate-beeea24799c2c165-registry-572db7e04317",
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      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-09T23:40:00+00:00",
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  "score_evolution": [
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      "stage": "historical_ml",
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    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 6,
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    },
    {
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      "home_runs": 4,
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    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260909_STL@SF

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickSTL

Published scoreSTL 5 - 4 SF

Final confidence52.1%

Calibrationraw 46.0% → blended 50.3%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.6% · weight 50.0% · n=588

H2H base featurehome net 2.0 · absolute 2.0 · n=2

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.2515

Simulation variance1.75

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.623553636571888-3.8405810782073875	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "STL",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": -0.042018,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.521009,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.478991,
    "away_win_probability": 0.521009
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.042018,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "STL wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "STL 5 - 4 SF",
    "confidence": 0.521008855,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.4601,
    "sample_size": 588,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5459,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.503,
    "published_confidence": 0.521009,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 2,
    "sample_weight": 0.03,
    "home_net_margin": 2.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 2.0,
    "home_average_margin": 1.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.015,
    "away_run_delta": -0.015,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.5377,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.28,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.2515
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02177634099015372
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.021698642874988808
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      {
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        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.021415133720897518
      },
      {
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        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.021338724395434133
      },
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        "calibration_sample_size": 588,
        "calibration_empirical_hit_rate": 0.5459,
        "calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.5446,
        "calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.2515,
        "reasons": [
          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability"
        ],
        "score_coherence": {
          "policy": "probability_follows_published_score_v1",
          "published_score": {
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            "home_runs": 4
          },
          "margin": -1,
          "probability_before": 0.470814,
          "margin_implied_home_probability": 0.415639,
          "shrinkage_weight": 0.980693,
          "side_flipped": false,
          "applied": false,
          "magnitude_pull_suppressed": true,
          "probability_after": 0.470814,
          "aligned_pick_probability": 0.529186
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        "starter_experience": {
          "applied": false,
          "min_starter_games": 14,
          "shrink_factor": 1.0
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      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
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        "available": true,
        "sample_size": 2,
        "sample_weight": 0.03,
        "home_net_margin": 2.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 2.0,
        "home_average_margin": 1.0,
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        "away_run_delta": -0.015,
        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": 1.0
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          {
            "home_margin": 1.0
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        ],
        "adaptive_parameters": {
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      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
        "applied": false,
        "home": {
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          "games": 146,
          "wins": 61,
          "losses": 85,
          "win_pct": 0.4178082191780822,
          "runs_scored": 610,
          "runs_allowed": 683,
          "run_differential": -73,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.5,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "STL",
          "games": 146,
          "wins": 72,
          "losses": 74,
          "win_pct": 0.4931506849315068,
          "runs_scored": 662,
          "runs_allowed": 673,
          "run_differential": -11,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.07534246575342465,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": -0.4247,
        "win_pct_edge": -0.0753,
        "quality_edge": -0.2515,
        "season_quality_edge": -0.5377,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": -0.5377,
          "recent_quality_edge": 0.28,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "conflict",
          "blended_quality_edge": -0.2515
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 0.0,
        "reason": "season quality edge below action threshold"
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
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            "away_runs": 4,
            "probability": 0.022842551719196483
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        "home_distribution": {
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        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
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    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.623553636571888,
      "home_runs": 3.8405810782073875,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260909_TB@ATL

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickTB

Published scoreTB 4 - 3 ATL

Final confidence57.7%

Calibrationraw 56.3% → blended 55.7%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.2% · weight 50.0% · n=339

H2H base featurehome net -6.0 · absolute 6.0 · n=1

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.188

Simulation variance1.75

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.870750407717855-3.519595086727522	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-3	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-3	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-3	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-3	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-3	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "TB",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "confidence": -0.154348,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.577174,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.422826,
    "away_win_probability": 0.577174
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.154348,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "TB wins 4-3",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "predicted_score_text": "TB 4 - 3 ATL",
    "confidence": 0.57717405,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.562553,
    "sample_size": 339,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5516,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.557076,
    "published_confidence": 0.577174,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 1,
    "sample_weight": 0.0167,
    "home_net_margin": -6.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 6.0,
    "home_average_margin": -6.0,
    "home_run_delta": -0.05,
    "away_run_delta": 0.05,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -6.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.3947,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.196,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.188
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.029468843635383202
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.027453928777353514
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.027424450713504325
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.026866629949774474
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.026687361919417438
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.07958523242604747,
      "1": 0.1280551618588955,
      "2": 0.17011959496763068,
      "3": 0.18659682114160783,
      "4": 0.16898446917135493,
      "5": 0.12635196284313696,
      "6": 0.07800273745970214,
      "7": 0.039758532469872584,
      "8": 0.016731832081090192,
      "9": 0.0058136555806618286
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.050310164565395984,
      "1": 0.08295300806786617,
      "2": 0.11858364410375612,
      "3": 0.14697169301020396,
      "4": 0.15792789745876418,
      "5": 0.14712967032015406,
      "6": 0.11883870809445286,
      "7": 0.08322078992131966,
      "8": 0.0505268236516384,
      "9": 0.026596740300824363,
      "10": 0.01213811030578983,
      "11": 0.004802750199834421
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.75,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "TB 4 - 3 ATL",
      "winner": "TB"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "TB 4 - 3 ATL",
      "winner": "TB"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0011,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.546,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "winner": "TB",
      "model_winner": "TB",
      "simulation_winner": "TB",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 1,
        "published_winner": "TB",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "TB",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.188,
      "winner": "TB",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "TB",
    "display_confidence": 0.5772,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5693,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5772,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.188,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.196,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0011,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 7,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 7,
        "range": 0
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-11bc4bc2dfc7264a-registry-4c40ee6a3671",
      "config_hash": "sha256:4c40ee6a3671b3a7c2775a53d9c67b935e269d408c98251960ad257a5d502c6c",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-11bc4bc2dfc7264a",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-09T13:40:22.642803+00:00",
      "parameters": {
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        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
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        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.75,
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        "recent.window_games": 10,
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        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
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        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
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        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
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        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
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        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
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        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
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        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
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        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
        "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
        "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
        "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
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        "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
        "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
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        "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
        "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
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        "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
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    }
  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
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      "parent_config_hash": "sha256:ed8620a946c5b9ff74c187780441f57f9b765a55832e8c9d3f218ec7008f1d67"
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    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-09T22:39:18.726159+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-09T23:15:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
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  },
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    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 5,
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    },
    {
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      "home_runs": 3,
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    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
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    }
  ]
}

20260909_TEX@SEA

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickTEX

Published scoreTEX 6 - 4 SEA

Final confidence54.9%

Calibrationraw 70.9% → blended 62.9%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.0% · weight 50.0% · n=502

H2H base featurehome net -14.0 · absolute 14.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.4291

Simulation variance1.75

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.9015608530698405-4.492008039038251	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	6-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	6-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	6-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	6-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	6-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
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  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "TEX",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": -0.097446,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.548723,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.451277,
    "away_win_probability": 0.548723
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.097446,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "TEX wins 6-4",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "TEX 6 - 4 SEA",
    "confidence": 0.54872336,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.708571,
    "sample_size": 502,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5498,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.629185,
    "published_confidence": 0.548723,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -14.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 14.0,
    "home_average_margin": -2.8,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0808,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0808,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -6.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
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      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
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  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.3069,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.656,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.4291
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  "score_distribution": {
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      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.018211302680314605
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      {
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    "home_distribution": {
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    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
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    "margin_widening_capped": false,
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            "home_runs": 4
          },
          "margin": -2,
          "probability_before": 0.35621,
          "margin_implied_home_probability": 0.335008,
          "shrinkage_weight": 0.9775,
          "side_flipped": false,
          "applied": false,
          "magnitude_pull_suppressed": true,
          "probability_after": 0.35621,
          "aligned_pick_probability": 0.64379
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        "starter_experience": {
          "applied": true,
          "min_starter_games": 3,
          "per_starter_career_games": {
            "807739": 3,
            "674003": 6
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          "shrink_factor": 0.5125,
          "probability_before": 0.35621,
          "probability_after": 0.426308,
          "reason": "inexperienced starter (debut/thin history): confidence shrunk toward 0.5 by career-games factor; winner unchanged"
        }
      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
        "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
        "available": true,
        "sample_size": 5,
        "sample_weight": 0.0577,
        "home_net_margin": -14.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 14.0,
        "home_average_margin": -2.8,
        "home_run_delta": -0.0808,
        "away_run_delta": 0.0808,
        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": -5.0
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          {
            "home_margin": -4.0
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          {
            "home_margin": 2.0
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          {
            "home_margin": -6.0
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          {
            "home_margin": -1.0
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        "adaptive_parameters": {
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      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
        "applied": false,
        "home": {
          "team": "SEA",
          "games": 145,
          "wins": 67,
          "losses": 78,
          "win_pct": 0.46206896551724136,
          "runs_scored": 574,
          "runs_allowed": 650,
          "run_differential": -76,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.5241379310344828,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "TEX",
          "games": 145,
          "wins": 72,
          "losses": 73,
          "win_pct": 0.496551724137931,
          "runs_scored": 605,
          "runs_allowed": 644,
          "run_differential": -39,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.2689655172413793,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": -0.2552,
        "win_pct_edge": -0.0345,
        "quality_edge": -0.4291,
        "season_quality_edge": -0.3069,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": -0.3069,
          "recent_quality_edge": -0.656,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": -0.4291
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 0.0,
        "reason": "season quality edge below action threshold"
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
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            "away_runs": 6,
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          {
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        "home_distribution": {
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        "away_distribution": {
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        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
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    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
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      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260909_TOR@OAK

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickTOR

Published scoreTOR 6 - 5 OAK

Final confidence53.6%

Calibrationraw 56.4% → blended 55.4%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.4% · weight 50.0% · n=612

H2H base featurehome net -6.0 · absolute 6.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.9449

Simulation variance1.75

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	5.443494881680069-4.784975115646099	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	6-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	6-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	6-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	6-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	6-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "TOR",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": -0.072314,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.536157,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.463843,
    "away_win_probability": 0.536157
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.072314,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "TOR wins 6-5",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "TOR 6 - 5 OAK",
    "confidence": 0.5361567899999999,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5636,
    "sample_size": 612,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5441,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.55385,
    "published_confidence": 0.536157,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -6.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 6.0,
    "home_average_margin": -1.2,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0346,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0346,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -1.1952,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.48,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.9449
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.019594135475775144
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.019296189214912118
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.019011402582444603
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.018722317293624176
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.018102250037909225
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.038816942619658026,
      "1": 0.06461818322317416,
      "2": 0.09506451702925638,
      "3": 0.12359828187816242,
      "4": 0.1420158136102402,
      "5": 0.14420863418104451,
      "6": 0.12941246390357505,
      "7": 0.10263399476930452,
      "8": 0.07193440324224015,
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      "10": 0.024390366367725392,
      "11": 0.011799255098696114,
      "12": 0.0050445350308302665,
      "13": 0.0019059784184281825
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.030627542801304003,
      "1": 0.05134849075468806,
      "2": 0.07716808374525529,
      "3": 0.10395425093816224,
      "4": 0.1255281983683656,
      "5": 0.13587352509819894,
      "6": 0.13183262354858052,
      "7": 0.11465828769626493,
      "8": 0.08938867780536784,
      "9": 0.06246749345824532,
      "10": 0.03913092835677653,
      "11": 0.021972563468631388,
      "12": 0.011059508040559402,
      "13": 0.004989825919599914
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    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.75,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "TOR 6 - 5 OAK",
      "winner": "TOR"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "TOR 6 - 5 OAK",
      "winner": "TOR"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0117,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.69,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "TOR",
      "model_winner": "TOR",
      "simulation_winner": "TOR",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 3,
        "published_winner": "TOR",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667,
        "draw_majority_team": "TOR",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.9449,
      "winner": "TOR",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "TOR",
    "display_confidence": 0.5362,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6097,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5362,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.9449,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.48,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0117,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.6667,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.3333,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 8,
        "median": 10,
        "max": 12,
        "range": 4
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
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      "config_hash": "sha256:4c40ee6a3671b3a7c2775a53d9c67b935e269d408c98251960ad257a5d502c6c",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-11bc4bc2dfc7264a",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-09T13:40:22.642803+00:00",
      "parameters": {
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        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
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        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
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        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
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        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
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        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
        "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
        "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
        "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
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        "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
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        "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
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    }
  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
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    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
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    },
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    },
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    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
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    }
  ]
}

20260909_WAS@SD

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickSD

Published scoreWAS 4 - 5 SD

Final confidence52.4%

Calibrationraw 58.8% → blended 56.8%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.8% · weight 50.0% · n=533

H2H base featurehome net -3.0 · absolute 3.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.1936

Simulation variance1.75

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.9242015813876283-4.558547303538739	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "SD",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.048994,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.524497,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.524497,
    "away_win_probability": 0.475503
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.048994,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "SD wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "WAS 4 - 5 SD",
    "confidence": 0.524497085,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.587823,
    "sample_size": 533,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5478,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.567811,
    "published_confidence": 0.524497,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -3.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 3.0,
    "home_average_margin": -0.6,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0173,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0173,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      }
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            "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
            "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
            "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
            "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
            "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "diagnostics": {
      "confidence_calibration": {
        "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
        "applied": true,
        "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
        "raw_confidence": 0.587823,
        "sample_size": 533,
        "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5478,
        "empirical_weight": 0.5,
        "blended_confidence": 0.567811
      },
      "confidence_governor": {
        "applied": true,
        "policy": "align_to_calibrated_probability_v2",
        "raw_confidence": 0.567811,
        "final_confidence": 0.5552,
        "calibrated_pick_probability": 0.5552,
        "shrinkage_weight": 0.978766,
        "hard_maximum": 0.9,
        "confidence_floor": 0.505,
        "score_gap": 0.5538,
        "calibration_sample_size": 533,
        "calibration_empirical_hit_rate": 0.5478,
        "calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.5463,
        "calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.1936,
        "reasons": [
          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability"
        ],
        "score_coherence": {
          "policy": "probability_follows_published_score_v1",
          "published_score": {
            "away_runs": 4,
            "home_runs": 5
          },
          "margin": 1,
          "probability_before": 0.55521,
          "margin_implied_home_probability": 0.584361,
          "shrinkage_weight": 0.978766,
          "side_flipped": false,
          "applied": false,
          "magnitude_pull_suppressed": true,
          "probability_after": 0.55521,
          "aligned_pick_probability": 0.55521
        },
        "starter_experience": {
          "applied": true,
          "min_starter_games": 5,
          "per_starter_career_games": {
            "621111": 28,
            "800600": 5
          },
          "shrink_factor": 0.6208,
          "probability_before": 0.55521,
          "probability_after": 0.534276,
          "reason": "inexperienced starter (debut/thin history): confidence shrunk toward 0.5 by career-games factor; winner unchanged"
        }
      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
        "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
        "available": true,
        "sample_size": 5,
        "sample_weight": 0.0577,
        "home_net_margin": -3.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 3.0,
        "home_average_margin": -0.6,
        "home_run_delta": -0.0173,
        "away_run_delta": 0.0173,
        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": 1.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 1.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": -2.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": -5.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 2.0
          }
        ],
        "adaptive_parameters": {
          "h2h.history_limit": 5,
          "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
          "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
          "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
        }
      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
        "applied": false,
        "home": {
          "team": "SD",
          "games": 145,
          "wins": 77,
          "losses": 68,
          "win_pct": 0.5310344827586206,
          "runs_scored": 610,
          "runs_allowed": 600,
          "run_differential": 10,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.06896551724137931,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "WAS",
          "games": 147,
          "wins": 67,
          "losses": 80,
          "win_pct": 0.4557823129251701,
          "runs_scored": 754,
          "runs_allowed": 747,
          "run_differential": 7,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.047619047619047616,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 0.0213,
        "win_pct_edge": 0.0753,
        "quality_edge": 0.1936,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.1342,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": 0.1342,
          "recent_quality_edge": 0.304,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": 0.1936
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 0.0,
        "reason": "season quality edge below action threshold"
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 4,
            "probability": 0.025389419148752687
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 5,
            "away_runs": 4,
            "probability": 0.02487433952520595
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 3,
            "probability": 0.024206666854639475
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 5,
            "away_runs": 3,
            "probability": 0.023715581935454883
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 5,
            "probability": 0.022703216634131305
          }
        ],
        "home_distribution": {
          "0": 0.041265300791329666,
          "1": 0.07056012627395213,
          "2": 0.10496990355053679,
          "3": 0.13586305053813938,
          "4": 0.15299211189108813,
          "5": 0.14988833393788698,
          "6": 0.1277608344166067,
          "7": 0.09474553695564525,
          "8": 0.06112950765014261,
          "9": 0.03431422139439435,
          "10": 0.01675824420208146,
          "11": 0.007120557454019497,
          "12": 0.0026322709441772446
        },
        "away_distribution": {
          "0": 0.052651866552691176,
          "1": 0.08912118997163658,
          "2": 0.12860712722996542,
          "3": 0.1582216661723821,
          "4": 0.16595247189493587,
          "5": 0.1483946875005768,
          "6": 0.11312792913390461,
          "7": 0.07352553217897315,
          "8": 0.040740220179230166,
          "9": 0.01924533267663781,
          "10": 0.007750760716965502,
          "11": 0.002661215792100857
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.9242015813876283,
      "home_runs": 4.558547303538739,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

Every reviewed game

Date	Game	Pick	Final confidence	Raw confidence	Empirical hit rate	Empirical weight	Pred A-H	Actual A-H	Result	Largest recorded movement	Pipeline	Roadmap signals
20260909	20260909_ARI@KC	KC	53.0%	54.1%	56.5%	50.0%	5.0-7.0	2-5	hit	Enhanced Prediction (-1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.540587, "sample_size": 345, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5652, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.552893, "published_confidence": 0.53, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 2, "sample_weight": 0.03, "home_net_margin": -3.0, "absolute_net_margin": 3.0, "home_average_margin": -1.5, "home_run_delta": -0.0225, "away_run_delta": 0.0225, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.7808, "recent_quality_edge": -0.38, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.6405 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.017901948394591083 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.017666259700198837 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.017471540068109245 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.01724151792879179 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.016459864351581685 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.028825942461553084, "1": 0.048402500029792184, "2": 0.07307756679990754, "3": 0.09920472772897182, "4": 0.12109122331369927, "5": 0.132899996646987, "6": 0.13115029734029443, "7": 0.1163712221364218, "8": 0.09284401590861392, "9": 0.06660306962306939, "10": 0.04296022823323445, "11": 0.024915575364806212, "12": 0.012992935049613172, "13": 0.006092220596270499, "14": 0.0025684787667651773 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.029962184331734535, "1": 0.05025973173737315, "2": 0.07565257233607664, "3": 0.10218427579902412, "4": 0.1238515031366244, "5": 0.13470239914409313, "6": 0.13146381120322884, "7": 0.11513144217399111, "8": 0.09047706618238203, "9": 0.0638028256926866, "10": 0.04037366314502945, "11": 0.0229252054211738, "12": 0.011681138011534524, "13": 0.00534089343792033, "14": 0.002191288247127232 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.75, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 7, "score_text": "ARI 5 - 7 KC", "winner": "KC" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 7, "score_text": "ARI 5 - 7 KC", "winner": "KC" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0138, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.73, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 7, "winner": "KC", "model_winner": "KC", "simulation_winner": "KC", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "KC", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667, "draw_majority_team": "KC", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 7 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 7 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": -0.6405, "winner": "KC", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 7, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260909	20260909_CHC@MIL	MIL	52.4%	57.1%	54.4%	50.0%	5.0-6.0	6-8	hit	Variance Applied (0.1834)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.571291, "sample_size": 584, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5445, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.557895, "published_confidence": 0.524481, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 10.0, "absolute_net_margin": 10.0, "home_average_margin": 2.0, "home_run_delta": 0.0577, "away_run_delta": -0.0577, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": 4.0 }, { "home_margin": 5.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.3664, "recent_quality_edge": -0.028, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.2284 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01882052487448546 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.018394037079018547 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.01783895402354454 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.017697624663822697 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.01743470939032226 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.029816661153019446, "1": 0.05002205882800058, "2": 0.07532387780258556, "3": 0.10180575579740817, "4": 0.1235038651706783, "5": 0.13447988259211605, "6": 0.13143246340248896, "7": 0.11529660760886414, "8": 0.09078183672181196, "9": 0.06415787279057905, "10": 0.04069766585507106, "11": 0.023171684258898196, "12": 0.011841705531252845, "13": 0.005431746174218287, "14": 0.0022363163130072598 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.03387440914760854, "1": 0.05663050785371528, "2": 0.08438205313931998, "3": 0.11206516228826134, "4": 0.1326514693476566, "5": 0.13995048561701245, "6": 0.13160053624898263, "7": 0.11029652060233731, "8": 0.08239234626225302, "9": 0.05485709841068692, "10": 0.03255365068324056, "11": 0.017218188966281613, "12": 0.008117011195288586, "13": 0.003410560237355162 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.75, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "CHC 5 - 6 MIL", "winner": "MIL" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "CHC 5 - 6 MIL", "winner": "MIL" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.1355, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.182, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "winner": "MIL", "model_winner": "MIL", "simulation_winner": "MIL", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "MIL", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5, "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.2284, "winner": "MIL", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260909	20260909_CIN@LAD	LAD	58.0%	80.0%	57.0%	50.0%	5.0-8.0	1-14	hit	Embedded Savant Run Environment (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.79981, "sample_size": 121, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5702, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.685005, "published_confidence": 0.58, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 2, "sample_weight": 0.03, "home_net_margin": 4.0, "absolute_net_margin": 4.0, "home_average_margin": 2.0, "home_run_delta": 0.03, "away_run_delta": -0.03, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": 3.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 2.0241, "recent_quality_edge": 0.412, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 1.4599 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 7, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.015107476240114858 }, { "home_runs": 8, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.014911077517152321 }, { "home_runs": 7, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.014808857033466627 }, { "home_runs": 8, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.014616340390469376 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.014158850283726605 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.01393578869468923, "1": 0.023734299415378086, "2": 0.037391635262104754, "3": 0.0544911129646857, "4": 0.07345647362343857, "5": 0.09159834999890305, "6": 0.10565703114130223, "7": 0.11273592527515425, "8": 0.11127034681558011, "9": 0.10158971160361376, "10": 0.08579721502091751, "11": 0.06702700777181778, "12": 0.04843726923787606, "13": 0.03237894151440218, "14": 0.020021601886170515, "15": 0.011452180210116951, "16": 0.006059415074128534, "17": 0.002965694489720736 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.0295129366070388, "1": 0.04952582648142998, "2": 0.07463681549511876, "3": 0.10101282881597447, "4": 0.12277276264662297, "5": 0.1340076484336478, "6": 0.13135881039981437, "7": 0.11563542210576938, "8": 0.09141650975053443, "9": 0.06490235339417279, "10": 0.04138074606001471, "11": 0.02369399271790863, "12": 0.012183729481378561, "13": 0.005626318422053014, "14": 0.002333299188521438 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.75, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 8, "score_text": "CIN 5 - 8 LAD", "winner": "LAD" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 8, "score_text": "CIN 5 - 8 LAD", "winner": "LAD" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": true, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.1018, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.762, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 8, "winner": "LAD", "model_winner": "LAD", "simulation_winner": "LAD", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "LAD", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "LAD", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": true, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 3, "simulation_margin": 3, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 8 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 8 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 3, "final_margin": 3, "winner_quality_edge": 1.4599, "winner": "LAD", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 8, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260909	20260909_CLE@BAL	CLE	55.8%	61.0%	54.5%	50.0%	4.0-3.0	5-9	miss	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.61, "sample_size": 539, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5455, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.57775, "published_confidence": 0.557965, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -6.0, "absolute_net_margin": 6.0, "home_average_margin": -1.2, "home_run_delta": -0.0346, "away_run_delta": 0.0346, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -4.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": -4.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.1712, "recent_quality_edge": -0.472, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.2765 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.032528471456464064 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.031874140214792644 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.03162872537471716 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.030992493107405678 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.02835992582123969 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.0944706046631081, "1": 0.15006095585440743, "2": 0.19179805464195535, "3": 0.19725415652738648, "4": 0.16323512078923325, "5": 0.10869423805811163, "6": 0.058237794030148726, "7": 0.02510780723983891, "8": 0.008709999528296392, "9": 0.0024312686675137204 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.05910637569056112, "1": 0.09674103603679651, "2": 0.1352705936319282, "3": 0.16158919424527962, "4": 0.16490639299632634, "5": 0.1437735271109597, "6": 0.10708696729157163, "7": 0.06814132427040799, "8": 0.037042541581939745, "9": 0.017203120932331884, "10": 0.0068254291853656265, "11": 0.0023134970265316465 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.75, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "CLE 4 - 3 BAL", "winner": "CLE" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "CLE 4 - 3 BAL", "winner": "CLE" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0799, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.542, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "winner": "CLE", "model_winner": "CLE", "simulation_winner": "CLE", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "CLE", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "CLE", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.2765, "winner": "CLE", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260909	20260909_COL@NYY	NYY	78.4%	92.0%	56.3%	50.0%	4.0-9.0	1-6	hit	Enhanced Prediction (2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.92, "sample_size": 119, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.563, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.7415, "published_confidence": 0.783866, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 1, "sample_weight": 0.0167, "home_net_margin": 2.0, "absolute_net_margin": 2.0, "home_average_margin": 2.0, "home_run_delta": 0.0167, "away_run_delta": -0.0167, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 2.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 2.0938, "recent_quality_edge": 0.6, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 1.5709 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 8, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.016089251505250438 }, { "home_runs": 9, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.01600059924822503 }, { "home_runs": 8, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.015374698317356066 }, { "home_runs": 9, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.015289983269768331 }, { "home_runs": 7, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.015116695340477545 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.009490926674329167, "1": 0.016245669252275736, "2": 0.02598292402631316, "3": 0.03882932733665407, "4": 0.05421920407990149, "5": 0.07074045294036056, "6": 0.08623904960244945, "7": 0.09823392898815739, "8": 0.10455396197654973, "9": 0.10397786651883718, "10": 0.09661904416702889, "11": 0.08388918956515806, "12": 0.06805666886727801, "13": 0.05158896378306726, "14": 0.036539647100149945, "15": 0.024182061416098674, "16": 0.014953529724224904, "17": 0.00864003584289106, "18": 0.004664539737852299, "19": 0.002353008400423292 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.046858080057107857, "1": 0.0774794225084252, "2": 0.11170059316861135, "3": 0.14040798376502367, "4": 0.15388466588056293, "5": 0.14705036544482586, "6": 0.12251918230599089, "7": 0.0890039519252819, "8": 0.05637437117506146, "9": 0.031133027123641608, "10": 0.014990917314740433, "11": 0.006293645642624979, "12": 0.0023037936881019384 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.75, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 9, "score_text": "COL 4 - 9 NYY", "winner": "NYY" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 9, "score_text": "COL 4 - 9 NYY", "winner": "NYY" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": true, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0477, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.95, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 9, "winner": "NYY", "model_winner": "NYY", "simulation_winner": "NYY", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "NYY", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667, "draw_majority_team": "NYY", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": true, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 5, "simulation_margin": 5, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 9 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 9 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 5, "final_margin": 5, "winner_quality_edge": 1.5709, "winner": "NYY", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 9, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260909	20260909_HOU@PHI	PHI	52.0%	51.0%	54.5%	50.0%	3.0-4.0	7-11	hit	Variance Applied (0.2127)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.5101, "sample_size": 585, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5453, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.5277, "published_confidence": 0.519697, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 1, "sample_weight": 0.0167, "home_net_margin": -1.0, "absolute_net_margin": 1.0, "home_average_margin": -1.0, "home_run_delta": -0.0083, "away_run_delta": 0.0083, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.5621, "recent_quality_edge": 0.036, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.3779 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.03678177757161549 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.034779657846165005 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.034160894321129134 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.03245714220687652 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.032301435510956183 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.0838963644893374, "1": 0.1344926213903491, "2": 0.17669646366389646, "3": 0.19025292379879527, "4": 0.16788384386775368, "5": 0.12141170315953784, "6": 0.0719591925006048, "7": 0.0349531317205096, "8": 0.013914255975169482, "9": 0.004539499434046329 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.08805339557447828, "1": 0.14065080112985234, "2": 0.18280748149209383, "3": 0.19333094512920387, "4": 0.1663659467871197, "5": 0.11648852630814098, "6": 0.06636781495322815, "7": 0.030767169291412537, "8": 0.011605750133041857, "9": 0.0035621692014285123 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.75, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "HOU 3 - 4 PHI", "winner": "PHI" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "HOU 3 - 4 PHI", "winner": "PHI" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.077, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.314, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "PHI", "model_winner": "PHI", "simulation_winner": "PHI", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "PHI", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "PHI", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.3779, "winner": "PHI", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260909	20260909_LAA@BOS	BOS	52.9%	51.0%	55.0%	50.0%	4.0-5.0	6-4	miss	Enhanced Prediction (-1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.5101, "sample_size": 531, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5499, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.53, "published_confidence": 0.528703, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 10.0, "absolute_net_margin": 10.0, "home_average_margin": 2.0, "home_run_delta": 0.0577, "away_run_delta": -0.0577, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -5.0 }, { "home_margin": 3.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": 7.0 }, { "home_margin": 3.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 1.3455, "recent_quality_edge": 0.12, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.9166 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02554015274185614 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.02420670291361392 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02389243152476676 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02363505361470582 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.023241266475598547 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.05119509163299771, "1": 0.08434931901960634, "2": 0.1203108508510681, "3": 0.14855866123167952, "4": 0.1588038829388168, "5": 0.14695833362544045, "6": 0.11773274821496675, "7": 0.08165265414084179, "8": 0.049024513421819384, "9": 0.025481573302413688, "10": 0.011465926342771745, "11": 0.004466445277577707 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.053419727983968435, "1": 0.08785048684106384, "2": 0.12460490052165134, "3": 0.15243142967064705, "4": 0.16082826357398405, "5": 0.14635200377658794, "6": 0.11486386427262851, "7": 0.07775290472991941, "8": 0.045393981075110355, "9": 0.022857481231874255, "10": 0.009926746269655132, "11": 0.003718210052909746 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.75, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "LAA 4 - 5 BOS", "winner": "BOS" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "LAA 4 - 5 BOS", "winner": "BOS" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0856, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.33, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "BOS", "model_winner": "BOS", "simulation_winner": "BOS", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "BOS", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5, "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.9166, "winner": "BOS", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260909	20260909_MIN@DET	DET	52.4%	51.0%	54.7%	50.0%	4.0-5.0	2-7	hit	Variance Applied (0.3686)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.5101, "sample_size": 616, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5471, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.5286, "published_confidence": 0.523944, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -18.0, "absolute_net_margin": 18.0, "home_average_margin": -3.6, "home_run_delta": -0.1038, "away_run_delta": 0.1038, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": 5.0 }, { "home_margin": -13.0 }, { "home_margin": -10.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.6448, "recent_quality_edge": -0.632, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.1979 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.022126206717257162 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.0219155156831729 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.021623143443704834 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.02141724269846985 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.01983933040578779 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.04213454819837709, "1": 0.06994725361359387, "2": 0.10205424958851668, "3": 0.13086382826331466, "4": 0.14748105950015256, "5": 0.14607670956656477, "6": 0.12716096269149907, "7": 0.09728698341376013, "8": 0.06541596741123853, "9": 0.03865813515834663, "10": 0.020078262721778012, "11": 0.009165147651205742, "12": 0.0036768922216522115 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.04389775868732117, "1": 0.0727656773566332, "2": 0.10569214566096434, "3": 0.13452120884558244, "4": 0.15002744618358452, "5": 0.1466164097070544, "6": 0.125552785627196, "7": 0.09421109112807126, "8": 0.06194548008853676, "9": 0.03569021146330182, "10": 0.018018578563017872, "11": 0.007971202512624082, "12": 0.0030900041761121417 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.75, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "MIN 4 - 5 DET", "winner": "DET" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "MIN 4 - 5 DET", "winner": "DET" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0101, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.702, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "DET", "model_winner": "DET", "simulation_winner": "DET", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "DET", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667, "draw_majority_team": "DET", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.1979, "winner": "DET", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260909	20260909_NYM@MIA	NYM	54.2%	70.3%	54.6%	50.0%	7.0-4.0	15-14	hit	Enhanced Prediction (2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.703064, "sample_size": 586, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5461, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.624582, "published_confidence": 0.541559, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 2.0, "absolute_net_margin": 2.0, "home_average_margin": 0.4, "home_run_delta": 0.0115, "away_run_delta": -0.0115, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": -5.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": 4.0 }, { "home_margin": 3.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.3842, "recent_quality_edge": -0.52, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.0677 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.01852424587116915 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.018516825397748286 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01782520957854502 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.017818069126252445 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.017472794092036486 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.040935974309357574, "1": 0.06802676521703475, "2": 0.09955597619897305, "3": 0.12831211892163172, "4": 0.14564005863226617, "5": 0.1455817178937762, "6": 0.1281579822322765, "7": 0.09935673439014542, "8": 0.06783624237081333, "9": 0.04078862675589071, "10": 0.02159877952881491, "11": 0.010072381467289353, "12": 0.0041366420817301125 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.0236027873766115, "1": 0.03981892532241547, "2": 0.06097217752476248, "3": 0.08474026280501376, "4": 0.10689658667795034, "5": 0.12239221644062075, "6": 0.12719196933270907, "7": 0.11997244615339253, "8": 0.10271154606239821, "9": 0.07981287393364683, "10": 0.056291466433865435, "11": 0.0360352970097655, "12": 0.020937729256609548, "13": 0.011041980700453227, "14": 0.0052854299103921, "15": 0.0022963050593931833 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.75, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "NYM 7 - 4 MIA", "winner": "NYM" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "NYM 7 - 4 MIA", "winner": "NYM" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0833, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.45, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "NYM", "model_winner": "NYM", "simulation_winner": "NYM", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 1, "published_winner": "NYM", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "NYM", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 3, "simulation_margin": 3, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 3, "final_margin": 3, "winner_quality_edge": -0.0677, "winner": "NYM", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260909	20260909_PIT@CHW	PIT	59.8%	72.6%	54.3%	50.0%	5.0-4.0	4-2	hit	Enhanced Prediction (-2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.726267, "sample_size": 188, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5426, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.634433, "published_confidence": 0.598407, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 1, "sample_weight": 0.0167, "home_net_margin": -6.0, "absolute_net_margin": 6.0, "home_average_margin": -6.0, "home_run_delta": -0.05, "away_run_delta": 0.05, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -6.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.1143, "recent_quality_edge": -0.488, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": -0.0965 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.02310491452485665 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.022985273839681564 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.02190929435593256 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.02179584476988772 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.021750197535759904 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.06169279984449325, "1": 0.10075630743476247, "2": 0.13997451749521725, "3": 0.16541111504319142, "4": 0.16627209669941936, "5": 0.14217165900460954, "6": 0.1034059819582197, "7": 0.06397602737632428, "8": 0.03366881633235266, "9": 0.015072226158535077, "10": 0.005739392548644554, "11": 0.001859060104230563 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.03299953526087521, "1": 0.05520997248906567, "2": 0.08245369096057983, "3": 0.10992223118350362, "4": 0.13081086945742387, "5": 0.1389584601595833, "6": 0.1317677156350496, "7": 0.11153621546402931, "8": 0.0842763377879482, "9": 0.05684316737218061, "10": 0.03422423481371273, "11": 0.018393826595160902, "12": 0.008824564713795864, "13": 0.003779178107091324 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.75, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "PIT 5 - 4 CHW", "winner": "PIT" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "PIT 5 - 4 CHW", "winner": "PIT" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": true, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0559, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.838, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "PIT", "model_winner": "PIT", "simulation_winner": "PIT", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 1, "published_winner": "PIT", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "PIT", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": true, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.0965, "winner": "PIT", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260909	20260909_STL@SF	STL	52.1%	46.0%	54.6%	50.0%	5.0-4.0	6-7	miss	Variance Applied (0.217)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.4601, "sample_size": 588, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5459, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.503, "published_confidence": 0.521009, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 2, "sample_weight": 0.03, "home_net_margin": 2.0, "absolute_net_margin": 2.0, "home_average_margin": 1.0, "home_run_delta": 0.015, "away_run_delta": -0.015, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.5377, "recent_quality_edge": 0.28, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": -0.2515 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02177634099015372 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.021698642874988808 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.021415133720897518 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.021338724395434133 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.019430602719044822 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.043073324349882605, "1": 0.07144885768782265, "2": 0.10399667018095271, "3": 0.13282530575757884, "4": 0.1488604955863486, "5": 0.14639132534626179, "6": 0.12632475678922642, "7": 0.09565305491154667, "8": 0.06355452319141629, "9": 0.03705367865386482, "10": 0.01895629430552195, "11": 0.008509671603695439, "12": 0.003352041635881239 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.0413504367084888, "1": 0.06869128508772676, "2": 0.1004221956811653, "3": 0.12920053588183317, "4": 0.14628690375091524, "5": 0.14576495120159136, "6": 0.1278224995809606, "7": 0.09864339958245671, "8": 0.06699390405546927, "9": 0.04004138339233165, "10": 0.021061504483440543, "11": 0.009749362955946464, "12": 0.003971637637674071 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.75, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "STL 5 - 4 SF", "winner": "STL" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "STL 5 - 4 SF", "winner": "STL" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0691, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.63, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "STL", "model_winner": "STL", "simulation_winner": "STL", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "STL", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667, "draw_majority_team": "STL", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.2515, "winner": "STL", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260909	20260909_TB@ATL	TB	57.7%	56.3%	55.2%	50.0%	4.0-3.0	7-2	hit	Variance Applied (-0.3512)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.562553, "sample_size": 339, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5516, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.557076, "published_confidence": 0.577174, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 1, "sample_weight": 0.0167, "home_net_margin": -6.0, "absolute_net_margin": 6.0, "home_average_margin": -6.0, "home_run_delta": -0.05, "away_run_delta": 0.05, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -6.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.3947, "recent_quality_edge": -0.196, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.188 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.029468843635383202 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.027453928777353514 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.027424450713504325 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.026866629949774474 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.026687361919417438 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.07958523242604747, "1": 0.1280551618588955, "2": 0.17011959496763068, "3": 0.18659682114160783, "4": 0.16898446917135493, "5": 0.12635196284313696, "6": 0.07800273745970214, "7": 0.039758532469872584, "8": 0.016731832081090192, "9": 0.0058136555806618286 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.050310164565395984, "1": 0.08295300806786617, "2": 0.11858364410375612, "3": 0.14697169301020396, "4": 0.15792789745876418, "5": 0.14712967032015406, "6": 0.11883870809445286, "7": 0.08322078992131966, "8": 0.0505268236516384, "9": 0.026596740300824363, "10": 0.01213811030578983, "11": 0.004802750199834421 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.75, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "TB 4 - 3 ATL", "winner": "TB" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "TB 4 - 3 ATL", "winner": "TB" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0011, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.546, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "winner": "TB", "model_winner": "TB", "simulation_winner": "TB", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 1, "published_winner": "TB", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "TB", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": -0.188, "winner": "TB", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260909	20260909_TEX@SEA	TEX	54.9%	70.9%	55.0%	50.0%	6.0-4.0	2-3	miss	Enhanced Prediction (2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.708571, "sample_size": 502, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5498, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.629185, "published_confidence": 0.548723, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -14.0, "absolute_net_margin": 14.0, "home_average_margin": -2.8, "home_run_delta": -0.0808, "away_run_delta": 0.0808, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -5.0 }, { "home_margin": -4.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": -6.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.3069, "recent_quality_edge": -0.656, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.4291 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.018211302680314605 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.018056446305213532 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.017724111725403946 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.017573398086634474 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.017065775852053874 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.04199990516007319, "1": 0.06973169966115028, "2": 0.10177462806387286, "3": 0.1305798389444661, "4": 0.1472787416969523, "5": 0.14602638471464316, "6": 0.12727700085069038, "7": 0.09752048773306975, "8": 0.06568544220583247, "9": 0.038892845917431224, "10": 0.02024406158676706, "11": 0.009263026539992572, "12": 0.003725936925058514 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.021039647469887318, "1": 0.03558041256540892, "2": 0.05487720594599747, "3": 0.07719363534156702, "4": 0.0990328979078657, "5": 0.11587399278009329, "6": 0.12365194372577573, "7": 0.12034399208728927, "8": 0.10682093407121207, "9": 0.08647624423953328, "10": 0.06384777371407906, "11": 0.04299353833264781, "12": 0.026403962644432812, "13": 0.014789160479460111, "14": 0.00755486006280639, "15": 0.0035197986319438147 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.75, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "TEX 6 - 4 SEA", "winner": "TEX" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "TEX 6 - 4 SEA", "winner": "TEX" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": true, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0102, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.866, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "TEX", "model_winner": "TEX", "simulation_winner": "TEX", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "TEX", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667, "draw_majority_team": "TEX", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": true, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": 0.4291, "winner": "TEX", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260909	20260909_TOR@OAK	TOR	53.6%	56.4%	54.4%	50.0%	6.0-5.0	0-2	miss	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.5636, "sample_size": 612, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5441, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.55385, "published_confidence": 0.536157, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -6.0, "absolute_net_margin": 6.0, "home_average_margin": -1.2, "home_run_delta": -0.0346, "away_run_delta": 0.0346, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -1.1952, "recent_quality_edge": -0.48, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.9449 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.019594135475775144 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.019296189214912118 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.019011402582444603 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.018722317293624176 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.018102250037909225 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.038816942619658026, "1": 0.06461818322317416, "2": 0.09506451702925638, "3": 0.12359828187816242, "4": 0.1420158136102402, "5": 0.14420863418104451, "6": 0.12941246390357505, "7": 0.10263399476930452, "8": 0.07193440324224015, "9": 0.04455663062766481, "10": 0.024390366367725392, "11": 0.011799255098696114, "12": 0.0050445350308302665, "13": 0.0019059784184281825 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.030627542801304003, "1": 0.05134849075468806, "2": 0.07716808374525529, "3": 0.10395425093816224, "4": 0.1255281983683656, "5": 0.13587352509819894, "6": 0.13183262354858052, "7": 0.11465828769626493, "8": 0.08938867780536784, "9": 0.06246749345824532, "10": 0.03913092835677653, "11": 0.021972563468631388, "12": 0.011059508040559402, "13": 0.004989825919599914 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.75, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "TOR 6 - 5 OAK", "winner": "TOR" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "TOR 6 - 5 OAK", "winner": "TOR" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0117, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.69, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "TOR", "model_winner": "TOR", "simulation_winner": "TOR", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "TOR", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667, "draw_majority_team": "TOR", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.9449, "winner": "TOR", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260909	20260909_WAS@SD	SD	52.4%	58.8%	54.8%	50.0%	4.0-5.0	2-9	hit	Variance Applied (0.3657)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.587823, "sample_size": 533, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5478, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.567811, "published_confidence": 0.524497, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -3.0, "absolute_net_margin": 3.0, "home_average_margin": -0.6, "home_run_delta": -0.0173, "away_run_delta": 0.0173, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": -5.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.1342, "recent_quality_edge": 0.304, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.1936 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.024199476386038043 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.023736320758620116 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.02313513668280201 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.022692351534280994 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.021777888054941654 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.04341465129432074, "1": 0.07199425338818186, "2": 0.10469979391786874, "3": 0.13353044642168843, "4": 0.1493486339300403, "5": 0.14649023901485994, "6": 0.12600930033693952, "7": 0.09505675669218373, "8": 0.06288540521887186, "9": 0.03648406449488912, "10": 0.018562781184492155, "11": 0.008282650868551596, "12": 0.0032410232371119833 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.05489394873461799, "1": 0.09016348590073928, "2": 0.12741272621908517, "3": 0.15490691862397116, "4": 0.1620334632412765, "5": 0.14581913126264762, "6": 0.11290162456276366, "7": 0.07520760665616352, "8": 0.043102180176209245, "9": 0.02125262603376108, "10": 0.009015749890016312, "11": 0.003290538698748548 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.75, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "WAS 4 - 5 SD", "winner": "SD" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "WAS 4 - 5 SD", "winner": "SD" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0451, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.374, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "SD", "model_winner": "SD", "simulation_winner": "SD", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "SD", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667, "draw_majority_team": "SD", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.1936, "winner": "SD", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }

Starting-pitcher component quality

H	{ "mae": 1.9333, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": -0.4 }
R	{ "mae": 2.0, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": -0.5333 }
ER	{ "mae": 2.0, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": -0.4667 }
BB	{ "mae": 1.2333, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.5667 }
SO	{ "mae": 2.6667, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 1.3333 }
HR	{ "mae": 0.8667, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": -0.3333 }
IP_outs	{ "mae_outs": 3.8333, "mae_innings": 1.2778, "bias_outs": 2.9 }

IP error is measured in outs. No single-outing ERA is used; ER and workload are compared directly.

Date

Game

Side

Pred starter

Actual starter

Match

Pred IP

Actual IP

Δ outs

Pred ER

Actual ER

Δ ER

H P/A

BB P/A

SO P/A

All context

20260909

20260909_ARI@KC

away

Zac Gallen

True

5.0

3.1

-5

-2

7/4

1/2

7/1

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 6.336734693877551,
      "WHIP": 1.5612244897959184,
      "IP": 98.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 19,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.158,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.667,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.99,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0841,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9194,
      "walk_factor": 0.956,
      "homer_factor": 1.1708,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 13.9,
      "bb_percent": 7.0,
      "woba": 0.373,
      "xwoba": 0.384,
      "barrel_percent": 11.0,
      "hard_hit_percent": 44.7,
      "whiff_percent": 19.0
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 858,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 19.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7917,
        "prior_weight": 0.2083
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "668678",
      "report_date": "20260909",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 19,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 28.1,
            "ER": 27.0,
            "R": 27.0,
            "H": 35.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 15.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 128.0,
            "Pitches": 443.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 5.4,
            "R": 5.4,
            "H": 7.0,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 3.0,
            "HR": 1.4,
            "BF": 25.6,
            "Pitches": 88.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 8.5765,
            "WHIP": 1.5882,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.95294,
            "H_per_IP": 1.23529,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.35294,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.52941,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.24706
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 55.0,
            "ER": 45.0,
            "R": 46.0,
            "H": 71.0,
            "BB": 17.0,
            "SO": 32.0,
            "HR": 12.0,
            "BF": 247.0,
            "Pitches": 874.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 4.5,
            "R": 4.6,
            "H": 7.1,
            "BB": 1.7,
            "SO": 3.2,
            "HR": 1.2,
            "BF": 24.7,
            "Pitches": 87.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 7.3636,
            "WHIP": 1.6,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.81818,
            "H_per_IP": 1.29091,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.30909,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.58182,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.21818
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 19,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 98.0,
            "ER": 69.0,
            "R": 74.0,
            "H": 122.0,
            "BB": 31.0,
            "SO": 61.0,
            "HR": 18.0,
            "BF": 440.0,
            "Pitches": 1644.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 3.6316,
            "R": 3.8947,
            "H": 6.4211,
            "BB": 1.6316,
            "SO": 3.2105,
            "HR": 0.9474,
            "BF": 23.1579,
            "Pitches": 86.5263
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.3367,
            "WHIP": 1.5612,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.70408,
            "H_per_IP": 1.2449,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.31633,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.62245,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.18367
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 4.221,
        "predicted_H": 6.464,
        "predicted_BB": 1.829,
        "predicted_SO": 3.478,
        "predicted_HR": 1.123,
        "predicted_ERA": 7.0358,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.536
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.438,
      "form_weight": 0.562,
      "form_reliability": 0.7917,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 19.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7917,
        "prior_weight": 0.2083
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.1,
          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 4.221,
          "final": 4.1242,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 6.464,
          "final": 6.2608,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.829,
          "final": 1.4659,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 3.478,
          "final": 5.0207,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.123,
          "final": 0.6311,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 7.0358,
          "final": 7.0358,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.536,
          "final": 1.536,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 55.0,
        "ER": 45,
        "H": 71,
        "BB": 17,
        "SO": 32,
        "HR": 12,
        "ERA": 7.363636363636362,
        "WHIP": 1.5999999999999999,
        "K9": 5.236363636363635,
        "HR9": 1.9636363636363634,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 2,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": true
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-07-07T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.3421396456493315,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 6.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 7.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 19.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7917,
          "prior_weight": 0.2083
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 4,
          "predicted_H": 6,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 7,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_quality_floor",
        "description": "Weak starter floor restored expected damage from recent form instead of assigning it to zero-inning bullpen rows.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 4,
          "predicted_H": 7,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 7,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "668678",
      "player_name": "Zac Gallen",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "ARI",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.3333,
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
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        "wins": 78,
        "losses": 68,
        "win_pct": 0.5342,
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        "run_differential": 2.0,
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      "opponent": {
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        "games": 146,
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        "run_differential_per_game": -0.6233,
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        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.3
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      "player_factors": {
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        "strikeout": 1.0116
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "668678",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "668678",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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            "xwoba": 0.384,
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            "avg_best_speed": 80.2446,
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            "whiff_percent": 19.0,
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          },
          "league_medians": {
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            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
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            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
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          },
          "components": {
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            "regression_edge": -0.3143,
            "xwoba_edge": -2.0857,
            "barrel_edge": -0.8667,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.9714,
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            "bb_edge": 0.55,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0457
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "668678",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 88,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 88,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.05966936525661,
              "release_spin_rate": 2212.6837637731783,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
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                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 88,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.05966936525661,
                "release_spin_rate": 2212.6837637731783,
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                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
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                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
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              "arm_angle": 0.0,
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            "components": {
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            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.99,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
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          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_id": "668678",
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            "player_name": "Zac Gallen",
            "team": "ARI",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 858,
            "espn_total_ranked": 859,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 858,
              "gp_value": 19.0,
              "gp_rank": 402,
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              "k_per_9_value": 5.602041,
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              "whip_value": 1.5612,
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              "war_value": -1.69,
              "war_rank": null
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            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
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          "predicted_BB": {
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            "factor": 0.956,
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            "factor": 0.9194,
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    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
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      "predicted_H": 7,
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      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
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      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 26,
      "Pitches": 100,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
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  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260909_ARI@KC.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260909

20260909_ARI@KC

home

Daniel Lynch IV

True

5.0

4/4

1/2

7/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
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      "WHIP": 1.095,
      "IP": 66.2,
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      "games_pitched": 52,
      "role_avg_IP": 3.444,
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      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
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    "savant": {
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      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0014,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9691,
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      "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 16.8,
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      "woba": 0.275,
      "xwoba": 0.31,
      "barrel_percent": 5.9,
      "hard_hit_percent": 36.1,
      "whiff_percent": 23.8
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 220,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.0,
      "season_IP": 66.2,
      "season_ERA": 3.51,
      "season_WHIP": 1.095,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
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        "last_10": 0.35,
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      "effective_weights": {
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      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
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        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7285,
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      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "663738",
      "report_date": "20260909",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 52,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
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          "per_game": {
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        },
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        },
        "season": {
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    "recent_form_analysis": {
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      "pitching": {
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      "fielding": {
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        "games_fielded": 10,
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-04T00:00:00"
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
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    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
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        {
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          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
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            {
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        {
          "index": 3,
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      "total_change": {
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      "opponent": {
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        "offense_edge": -0.0452,
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      "player_factors": {
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "663738",
        "profile": {
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          "pitcher_id": "663738",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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            "xwoba": 0.31,
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "663738",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 39,
            "primary_pitch": {
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              "pitches": 39,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
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              "er_value": 26.0,
              "er_rank": 229,
              "hr_value": 5.0,
              "hr_rank": 316,
              "bb_value": 20.0,
              "bb_rank": 296,
              "k_value": 46.0,
              "k_rank": 315,
              "k_per_9_value": 6.21,
              "k_per_9_rank": 44,
              "whip_value": 1.095,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.68,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0012,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0012,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9729,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9769,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9739,
            "adjusted": 2
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 20,
      "Pitches": 91,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260909_ARI@KC.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260909

20260909_CHC@MIL

away

Kevin Gausman

True

5.2

4.0

-5

7/8

4/2

5/6

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.379876796714579,
      "WHIP": 1.2566735112936345,
      "IP": 162.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 29,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.598,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.6,
      "last_start_IP": 7.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.1639,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9861,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0251,
      "walk_factor": 0.944,
      "homer_factor": 1.0046,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 24.2,
      "bb_percent": 6.4,
      "woba": 0.31,
      "xwoba": 0.305,
      "barrel_percent": 7.2,
      "hard_hit_percent": 39.3,
      "whiff_percent": 27.2
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 131,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 29.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8529,
        "prior_weight": 0.1471
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "592332",
      "report_date": "20260909",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 29,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
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          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 28.0,
            "ER": 15.0,
            "R": 15.0,
            "H": 28.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 34.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 117.0,
            "Pitches": 478.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 5.6,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 6.8,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 23.4,
            "Pitches": 95.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.8214,
            "WHIP": 1.25,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.53571,
            "H_per_IP": 1.0,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.25,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.21429,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.17857
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 56.0,
            "ER": 28.0,
            "R": 29.0,
            "H": 59.0,
            "BB": 15.0,
            "SO": 57.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 238.0,
            "Pitches": 959.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.8,
            "R": 2.9,
            "H": 5.9,
            "BB": 1.5,
            "SO": 5.7,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 23.8,
            "Pitches": 95.9
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.5,
            "WHIP": 1.3214,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.5,
            "H_per_IP": 1.05357,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.26786,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.01786,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10714
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        },
        "season": {
          "games": 29,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 162.1,
            "ER": 79.0,
            "R": 85.0,
            "H": 160.0,
            "BB": 44.0,
            "SO": 165.0,
            "HR": 21.0,
            "BF": 683.0,
            "Pitches": 2714.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.7241,
            "R": 2.931,
            "H": 5.5172,
            "BB": 1.5172,
            "SO": 5.6897,
            "HR": 0.7241,
            "BF": 23.5517,
            "Pitches": 93.5862
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.3799,
            "WHIP": 1.2567,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.48665,
            "H_per_IP": 0.98563,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.27105,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.01643,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12936
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.898,
        "predicted_H": 5.72,
        "predicted_BB": 1.568,
        "predicted_SO": 6.128,
        "predicted_HR": 0.816,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.6023,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2861
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4121,
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      "form_reliability": 0.8529,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8529,
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      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.898,
          "final": 3.3522,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 5.72,
          "final": 6.2476,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 1.568,
          "final": 2.5703,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 6.128,
          "final": 5.6631,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.816,
          "final": 0.4797,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.6023,
          "final": 4.6023,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2861,
          "final": 1.2861,
          "source": "form_only"
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 56.0,
        "ER": 28,
        "H": 59,
        "BB": 15,
        "SO": 57,
        "HR": 6,
        "ERA": 4.499999999999999,
        "WHIP": 1.3214285714285712,
        "K9": 9.160714285714285,
        "HR9": 0.9642857142857142,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 5,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-03T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0130162690259548,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 7.0,
          "predicted_BB": 4.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 29.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8529,
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "592332",
      "player_name": "Kevin Gausman",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CHC",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
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            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
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            {
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
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          "dominant_effect": "worse"
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
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      "team": {
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        "games": 146,
        "wins": 81,
        "losses": 65,
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        "runs_scored": 774.0,
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        "run_differential_per_game": 0.8904,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.3014,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.411,
        "offense_index": 1.1843,
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        "current_streak": "L3",
        "recent": {
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      "opponent": {
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        "available": true,
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      },
      "edges": {
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        "offense_edge": 0.1843,
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      "player_factors": {
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        "strikeout": 0.9865
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "592332",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "592332",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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          "league_medians": {
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          "components": {
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
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            "pitcher_id": "592332",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
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            "primary_pitch": {
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                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.1126,
              "release_spin_rate": 1999.5503,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0427,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.3053,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.1639,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9861,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0251,
          "walk_factor": 0.944,
          "homer_factor": 1.0046,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.005,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "592332",
            "espn_id": 32667,
            "player_name": "Kevin Gausman",
            "team": "CHC",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 131,
            "espn_total_ranked": 859,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 131,
              "gp_value": 29.0,
              "gp_rank": 230,
              "gs_value": 29.0,
              "gs_rank": 7,
              "qs_value": 14.0,
              "qs_rank": 23,
              "era_value": 4.3798,
              "era_rank": 42.0,
              "w_value": 9.0,
              "w_rank": 40,
              "l_value": 11.0,
              "l_rank": 9,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 248,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 350,
              "ip_value": 162.1,
              "ip_rank": 17,
              "h_value": 160.0,
              "h_rank": 8,
              "er_value": 79.0,
              "er_rank": 12,
              "hr_value": 21.0,
              "hr_rank": 30,
              "bb_value": 44.0,
              "bb_rank": 65,
              "k_value": 165.0,
              "k_rank": 20,
              "k_per_9_value": 9.147844,
              "k_per_9_rank": 31,
              "whip_value": 1.2566,
              "whip_rank": 33.0,
              "war_value": 1.38,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9861,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 0.9861,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.944,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0046,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0251,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 7,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 4,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 29,
      "Pitches": 120,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was +3."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260909_CHC@MIL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260909

20260909_CHC@MIL

home

Logan Henderson

True

6.1

5.0

-4

-3

7/2

4/1

4/6

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.484,
      "WHIP": 0.792,
      "IP": 83.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 15,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.556,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.667,
      "last_start_IP": 7.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.6692,
      "sample_weight": 0.956,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9431,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0535,
      "walk_factor": 0.9101,
      "homer_factor": 0.9869,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 30.0,
      "bb_percent": 4.5,
      "woba": 0.243,
      "xwoba": 0.253,
      "barrel_percent": 8.9,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.6,
      "whiff_percent": 26.8
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 39,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 15.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.75,
        "prior_weight": 0.25
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "701656",
      "report_date": "20260909",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 15,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 33.1,
            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 8.0,
            "H": 17.0,
            "BB": 4.0,
            "SO": 31.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 118.0,
            "Pitches": 477.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.2,
            "ER": 1.6,
            "R": 1.6,
            "H": 3.4,
            "BB": 0.8,
            "SO": 6.2,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 23.6,
            "Pitches": 95.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.16,
            "WHIP": 0.63,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.24,
            "H_per_IP": 0.51,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.12,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.93,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 60.1,
            "ER": 16.0,
            "R": 16.0,
            "H": 34.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 63.0,
            "HR": 10.0,
            "BF": 220.0,
            "Pitches": 882.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.6,
            "R": 1.6,
            "H": 3.4,
            "BB": 0.8,
            "SO": 6.3,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 22.0,
            "Pitches": 88.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.3867,
            "WHIP": 0.6961,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.26519,
            "H_per_IP": 0.56354,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.1326,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.0442,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.16575
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 15,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 83.1,
            "ER": 23.0,
            "R": 23.0,
            "H": 52.0,
            "BB": 14.0,
            "SO": 93.0,
            "HR": 12.0,
            "BF": 310.0,
            "Pitches": 1236.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 1.5333,
            "R": 1.5333,
            "H": 3.4667,
            "BB": 0.9333,
            "SO": 6.2,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 20.6667,
            "Pitches": 82.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.484,
            "WHIP": 0.792,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.276,
            "H_per_IP": 0.624,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.168,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.116,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.144
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.1,
        "predicted_ER": 1.983,
        "predicted_H": 4.109,
        "predicted_BB": 1.21,
        "predicted_SO": 6.197,
        "predicted_HR": 0.953,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.8521,
        "predicted_WHIP": 0.8498
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4556,
      "form_weight": 0.5444,
      "form_reliability": 0.75,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 15.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.75,
        "prior_weight": 0.25
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.1,
          "form": 6.1,
          "final": 6.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 1.983,
          "final": 2.902,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 4.109,
          "final": 5.4262,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 1.21,
          "final": 2.4812,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 6.197,
          "final": 5.196,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.953,
          "final": 0.9744,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.8521,
          "final": 2.8521,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 0.8498,
          "final": 0.8498,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 60.1,
        "ER": 16,
        "H": 34,
        "BB": 8,
        "SO": 63,
        "HR": 10,
        "ERA": 2.386740331491713,
        "WHIP": 0.6961325966850829,
        "K9": 9.397790055248619,
        "HR9": 1.4917127071823204,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 6,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 2,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-03T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.7596421569501854,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 7.0,
          "predicted_BB": 4.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 15.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.75,
          "prior_weight": 0.25
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.1,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 7,
          "predicted_BB": 4,
          "predicted_SO": 6,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "701656",
      "player_name": "Logan Henderson",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "MIL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.1,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.25,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.3333,
              "after": 6.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0368,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 2.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.5,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 3,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 2,
            "better_metrics": 2,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 2.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.5,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.25,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.1,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.1,
              "after": 6.1,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": -2.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.3333,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": -2.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.3333,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.25,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 7.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.3333,
            "after": 6.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0368,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 2,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 2,
          "better_metrics": 1,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.25,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "deboosted"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "MIL",
        "games": 146,
        "wins": 90,
        "losses": 56,
        "win_pct": 0.6164,
        "runs_scored": 734.0,
        "runs_allowed": 564.0,
        "run_differential": 170.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.1644,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.0274,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.863,
        "offense_index": 1.1231,
        "defense_index": 1.1587,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.5,
          "run_differential": -10.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.242
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "CHC",
        "games": 146,
        "wins": 81,
        "losses": 65,
        "win_pct": 0.5548,
        "runs_scored": 774.0,
        "runs_allowed": 644.0,
        "run_differential": 130.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.8904,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.3014,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.411,
        "offense_index": 1.1843,
        "defense_index": 1.0148,
        "current_streak": "L3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.3,
          "run_differential": 1.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.121
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.121,
        "offense_edge": 0.1231,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.1843,
        "defense_strength": 0.1587,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0148,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0022,
        "run_prevention": 1.0076,
        "strikeout": 0.9889
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "701656",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "701656",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 239.0,
            "k_percent": 30.0,
            "bb_percent": 4.5,
            "woba": 0.243,
            "xwoba": 0.253,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.2,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.9,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.6,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.1689,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.0041,
            "whiff_percent": 26.8,
            "swing_percent": 52.8
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 117.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6392,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9158,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.9249,
            "command_and_miss": 0.8393,
            "regression_edge": -0.2857,
            "xwoba_edge": 1.6571,
            "barrel_edge": -0.4,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.1,
            "whiff_edge": 0.2571,
            "bb_edge": 1.175,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0941
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "701656",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 89,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 89,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.19496107158342,
              "release_spin_rate": 2417.1147694148563,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 89,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.19496107158342,
                "release_spin_rate": 2417.1147694148563,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.195,
              "release_spin_rate": 2417.1148,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0941,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.6723,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.6692,
          "sample_weight": 0.956,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9431,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0535,
          "walk_factor": 0.9101,
          "homer_factor": 0.9869,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.01,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "701656",
            "espn_id": 4917878,
            "player_name": "Logan Henderson",
            "team": "MIL",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 39,
            "espn_total_ranked": 859,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 39,
              "gp_value": 15.0,
              "gp_rank": 457,
              "gs_value": 15.0,
              "gs_rank": 134,
              "qs_value": 7.0,
              "qs_rank": 81,
              "era_value": 2.484,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 9.0,
              "w_rank": 40,
              "l_value": 3.0,
              "l_rank": 238,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 248,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 350,
              "ip_value": 83.1,
              "ip_rank": 153,
              "h_value": 52.0,
              "h_rank": 232,
              "er_value": 23.0,
              "er_rank": 270,
              "hr_value": 12.0,
              "hr_rank": 132,
              "bb_value": 14.0,
              "bb_rank": 397,
              "k_value": 93.0,
              "k_rank": 115,
              "k_per_9_value": 10.044,
              "k_per_9_rank": 20,
              "whip_value": 0.792,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 2.84,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9456,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9456,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9141,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9875,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0511,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.1,
      "predicted_H": 7,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 4,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 30,
      "Pitches": 117,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 5",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was -5."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "MISSED_SHUTDOWN",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Model missed a shutdown outing",
      "detail": "The pitcher allowed zero earned runs after a projection of 3 ER."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: True; actual quality start: False."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260909_CHC@MIL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260909

20260909_CIN@LAD

away

Rhett Lowder

True

4.2

3.1

-4

6/7

2/2

3/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 5.431034482758621,
      "WHIP": 1.4913793103448276,
      "IP": 116.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 25,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.955,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.4,
      "last_start_IP": 4.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.5704,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0485,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9366,
      "walk_factor": 0.996,
      "homer_factor": 1.0758,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 17.2,
      "bb_percent": 9.0,
      "woba": 0.343,
      "xwoba": 0.347,
      "barrel_percent": 9.5,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.3,
      "whiff_percent": 18.7
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 265,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 25.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8333,
        "prior_weight": 0.1667
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "695076",
      "report_date": "20260909",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 25,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 27.0,
            "ER": 18.0,
            "R": 20.0,
            "H": 33.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 17.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 122.0,
            "Pitches": 485.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 3.6,
            "R": 4.0,
            "H": 6.6,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 3.4,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 24.4,
            "Pitches": 97.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.0,
            "WHIP": 1.5185,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.66667,
            "H_per_IP": 1.22222,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.2963,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.62963,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.18519
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 48.1,
            "ER": 32.0,
            "R": 34.0,
            "H": 54.0,
            "BB": 14.0,
            "SO": 32.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 213.0,
            "Pitches": 824.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 3.2,
            "R": 3.4,
            "H": 5.4,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 3.2,
            "HR": 0.7,
            "BF": 21.3,
            "Pitches": 82.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.9586,
            "WHIP": 1.4069,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.66207,
            "H_per_IP": 1.11724,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.28966,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.66207,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.14483
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 25,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 116.0,
            "ER": 70.0,
            "R": 73.0,
            "H": 126.0,
            "BB": 47.0,
            "SO": 90.0,
            "HR": 16.0,
            "BF": 522.0,
            "Pitches": 1994.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.8,
            "R": 2.92,
            "H": 5.04,
            "BB": 1.88,
            "SO": 3.6,
            "HR": 0.64,
            "BF": 20.88,
            "Pitches": 79.76
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.431,
            "WHIP": 1.4914,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.60345,
            "H_per_IP": 1.08621,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.40517,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.77586,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13793
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 3.152,
        "predicted_H": 5.667,
        "predicted_BB": 1.634,
        "predicted_SO": 3.596,
        "predicted_HR": 0.799,
        "predicted_ERA": 5.6424,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.4521
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4204,
      "form_weight": 0.5796,
      "form_reliability": 0.8333,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 25.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8333,
        "prior_weight": 0.1667
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.1,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 3.152,
          "final": 3.929,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.667,
          "final": 5.3866,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.634,
          "final": 1.7879,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 3.596,
          "final": 3.3454,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 0.799,
          "final": 1.3039,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 5.6424,
          "final": 5.6424,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.4521,
          "final": 1.4521,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 48.1,
        "ER": 32,
        "H": 54,
        "BB": 14,
        "SO": 32,
        "HR": 7,
        "ERA": 5.958620689655172,
        "WHIP": 1.4068965517241379,
        "K9": 5.958620689655172,
        "HR9": 1.303448275862069,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-04T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.1792477961195509,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 5.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 3.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 25.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8333,
          "prior_weight": 0.1667
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.2,
          "predicted_ER": 5,
          "predicted_H": 5,
          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 3,
          "predicted_HR": 2
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_quality_floor",
        "description": "Weak starter floor restored expected damage from recent form instead of assigning it to zero-inning bullpen rows.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.2,
          "predicted_ER": 5,
          "predicted_H": 6,
          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 3,
          "predicted_HR": 2
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "695076",
      "player_name": "Rhett Lowder",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CIN",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.2,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
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          "changed_metrics": [
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
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        "profile": {
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          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
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          "league_medians": {
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          "components": {
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            "xwoba_edge": -1.0286,
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            "pitch_design_score": -0.0385
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "695076",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 96,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
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              "pitches": 96,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.18784850252824,
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              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
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            "pitch_mix": [
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            "components": {
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            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
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          "quality_score": -0.5704,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
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          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_name": "Rhett Lowder",
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            "espn_rank": 265,
            "espn_total_ranked": 859,
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              "whip_value": 1.4913,
              "whip_rank": null,
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              "war_rank": null
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            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
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    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
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      "predicted_H": 6,
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      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 97,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
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  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +3."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260909_CIN@LAD.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260909

20260909_CIN@LAD

home

Yoshinobu Yamamoto

True

6.1

7.0

3/3

0/1

7/10

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
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      "IP": 165.0,
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      "games_pitched": 25,
      "role_avg_IP": 6.6,
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      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 25.4,
      "bb_percent": 6.0,
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      "barrel_percent": 6.5,
      "hard_hit_percent": 36.9,
      "whiff_percent": 27.2
    },
    "espn_rank": {
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      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
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      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
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        "season": 0.2
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      "effective_weights": {
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      "shrinkage": {
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      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "808967",
      "report_date": "20260909",
      "season_year": 2026,
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      "reference_playing_time": 6.333,
      "windows": {
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          "totals": {
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            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 8.0,
            "H": 21.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 40.0,
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          "per_game": {
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            "H": 4.2,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 8.0,
            "HR": 0.6,
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          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 0.9574,
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            "H_per_IP": 0.67021,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.28723,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.2766,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09574
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        },
        "last_10": {
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          "totals": {
            "IP": 67.1,
            "ER": 20.0,
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          "per_game": {
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          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 0.9059,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.29703,
            "H_per_IP": 0.62376,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.28218,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.05446,
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        },
        "season": {
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          "per_game": {
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          "rates": {
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      "blend_segments": {},
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    "model_form_blend_trace": {
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        "prior_size": 5.0,
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        "predicted_ER": {
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        "predicted_SO": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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        "predicted_WHIP": {
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    "recent_form_analysis": {
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        "AVG": 0,
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      "pitching": {
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        "K9": 9.490099009900991,
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        "dominant_form": false,
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      "fielding": {
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        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-02T00:00:00"
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
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    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "team": "LAD",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
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          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
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          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
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            {
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        {
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          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
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      "total_change": {
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        "changed_metrics": [
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          "has_material_change": true,
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    "team_form_snapshot": {
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        "run_differential_per_game": 1.0759,
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        "recent": {
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      "opponent": {
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        "run_differential_per_game": -0.7517,
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      "edges": {
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        "offense_edge": 0.0958,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0638,
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        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
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      "player_factors": {
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        "strikeout": 1.0173
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "808967",
        "profile": {
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          "pitcher_id": "808967",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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          "league_medians": {
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          "components": {
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "808967",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 100,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
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              "pitches": 100,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
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              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
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              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
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            "pitch_mix": [
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            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 91.1148,
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
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              "h_value": 110.0,
              "h_rank": 102,
              "er_value": 49.0,
              "er_rank": 105,
              "hr_value": 18.0,
              "hr_rank": 55,
              "bb_value": 38.0,
              "bb_rank": 100,
              "k_value": 161.0,
              "k_rank": 24,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.781817,
              "k_per_9_rank": 49,
              "whip_value": 0.8969,
              "whip_rank": 2.0,
              "war_value": 4.82,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9527,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9527,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.936,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9493,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 1.032,
            "adjusted": 7
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.1,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 89,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260909_CIN@LAD.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260909

20260909_CLE@BAL

away

Foster Griffin

True

5.2

2.1

-10

6/7

2/2

5/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "ERA": 3.2557172557172556,
      "WHIP": 1.1413721413721414,
      "IP": 160.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 28,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.726,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.4,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.0997,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0085,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9857,
      "walk_factor": 0.94,
      "homer_factor": 1.0346,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 21.6,
      "bb_percent": 6.2,
      "woba": 0.303,
      "xwoba": 0.318,
      "barrel_percent": 8.9,
      "hard_hit_percent": 37.3,
      "whiff_percent": 22.9
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 21,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 28.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
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      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "656492",
      "report_date": "20260909",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 28,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
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          "totals": {
            "IP": 27.0,
            "ER": 9.0,
            "R": 11.0,
            "H": 26.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 20.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 112.0,
            "Pitches": 463.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 2.2,
            "H": 5.2,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 4.0,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 22.4,
            "Pitches": 92.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.0,
            "WHIP": 1.2963,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.33333,
            "H_per_IP": 0.96296,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.33333,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.74074,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07407
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 57.0,
            "ER": 25.0,
            "R": 27.0,
            "H": 61.0,
            "BB": 15.0,
            "SO": 42.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 237.0,
            "Pitches": 933.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.5,
            "R": 2.7,
            "H": 6.1,
            "BB": 1.5,
            "SO": 4.2,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 23.7,
            "Pitches": 93.3
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.9474,
            "WHIP": 1.3333,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.4386,
            "H_per_IP": 1.07018,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.26316,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.73684,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10526
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        },
        "season": {
          "games": 28,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 160.1,
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            "R": 65.0,
            "H": 142.0,
            "BB": 41.0,
            "SO": 142.0,
            "HR": 23.0,
            "BF": 657.0,
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          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.0714,
            "R": 2.3214,
            "H": 5.0714,
            "BB": 1.4643,
            "SO": 5.0714,
            "HR": 0.8214,
            "BF": 23.4643,
            "Pitches": 93.0357
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.2557,
            "WHIP": 1.1414,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.36175,
            "H_per_IP": 0.88565,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.25572,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.88565,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.14345
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.186,
        "predicted_H": 5.445,
        "predicted_BB": 1.69,
        "predicted_SO": 4.4,
        "predicted_HR": 0.587,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.5514,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.288
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
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      "form_reliability": 0.8485,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
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      "applied_metrics": {
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          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.186,
          "final": 2.523,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 5.445,
          "final": 5.6748,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.69,
          "final": 1.8183,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.4,
          "final": 4.6484,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.587,
          "final": 0.758,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.5514,
          "final": 3.5514,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.288,
          "final": 1.288,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 57.0,
        "ER": 25,
        "H": 61,
        "BB": 15,
        "SO": 42,
        "HR": 6,
        "ERA": 3.9473684210526314,
        "WHIP": 1.3333333333333333,
        "K9": 6.631578947368421,
        "HR9": 0.9473684210526315,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 5,
        "dominant_form": false,
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      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-04T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9511428354419951,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 6.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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          "sample_size": 28.0,
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          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8485,
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    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "656492",
      "player_name": "Foster Griffin",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CLE",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            {
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              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
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          {
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          {
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          {
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          "dominant_effect": "worse"
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
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      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
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        "games": 146,
        "wins": 74,
        "losses": 72,
        "win_pct": 0.5068,
        "runs_scored": 593.0,
        "runs_allowed": 605.0,
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        "run_differential_per_game": -0.0822,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0616,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1438,
        "offense_index": 0.9076,
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        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
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      "opponent": {
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        "runs_scored": 652.0,
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        "available": true,
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      "edges": {
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      "player_factors": {
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      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "656492",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "656492",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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          "league_medians": {
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          "components": {
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          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
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            "pitcher_id": "656492",
            "player_name": null,
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            "primary_pitch": {
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                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 85.8783,
              "release_spin_rate": 2154.9415,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.2239,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.599,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.0997,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0085,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9857,
          "walk_factor": 0.94,
          "homer_factor": 1.0346,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.015,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "656492",
            "espn_id": 33773,
            "player_name": "Foster Griffin",
            "team": "CLE",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 21,
            "espn_total_ranked": 859,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 21,
              "gp_value": 28.0,
              "gp_rank": 257,
              "gs_value": 28.0,
              "gs_rank": 21,
              "qs_value": 14.0,
              "qs_rank": 23,
              "era_value": 3.2557,
              "era_rank": 18.0,
              "w_value": 15.0,
              "w_rank": 3,
              "l_value": 4.0,
              "l_rank": 181,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 248,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 350,
              "ip_value": 160.1,
              "ip_rank": 21,
              "h_value": 142.0,
              "h_rank": 28,
              "er_value": 58.0,
              "er_rank": 69,
              "hr_value": 23.0,
              "hr_rank": 20,
              "bb_value": 41.0,
              "bb_rank": 79,
              "k_value": 142.0,
              "k_rank": 40,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.970894,
              "k_per_9_rank": 51,
              "whip_value": 1.1413,
              "whip_rank": 18.0,
              "war_value": 3.54,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0085,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0085,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.94,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0346,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9857,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 25,
      "Pitches": 98,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 5",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +5; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least three innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -10 outs from the projected workload."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260909_CLE@BAL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260909

20260909_CLE@BAL

home

Shane Baz

True

5.2

4/6

4/1

2/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.9122448979591833,
      "WHIP": 1.3346938775510204,
      "IP": 163.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 28,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.833,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.4,
      "last_start_IP": 6.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.0691,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0059,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9783,
      "walk_factor": 0.98,
      "homer_factor": 1.0097,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 20.9,
      "bb_percent": 8.2,
      "woba": 0.312,
      "xwoba": 0.31,
      "barrel_percent": 6.6,
      "hard_hit_percent": 41.3,
      "whiff_percent": 22.3
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 91,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 28.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8485,
        "prior_weight": 0.1515
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "669358",
      "report_date": "20260909",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 28,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 27.0,
            "ER": 14.0,
            "R": 14.0,
            "H": 27.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 25.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 116.0,
            "Pitches": 444.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.8,
            "R": 2.8,
            "H": 5.4,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 5.0,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 23.2,
            "Pitches": 88.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.6667,
            "WHIP": 1.4074,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.51852,
            "H_per_IP": 1.0,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.40741,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.92593,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07407
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 56.1,
            "ER": 21.0,
            "R": 25.0,
            "H": 56.0,
            "BB": 15.0,
            "SO": 55.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 235.0,
            "Pitches": 907.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.1,
            "R": 2.5,
            "H": 5.6,
            "BB": 1.5,
            "SO": 5.5,
            "HR": 0.3,
            "BF": 23.5,
            "Pitches": 90.7
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.355,
            "WHIP": 1.2604,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.37278,
            "H_per_IP": 0.99408,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.26627,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.97633,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.05325
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 28,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 163.1,
            "ER": 71.0,
            "R": 81.0,
            "H": 161.0,
            "BB": 57.0,
            "SO": 145.0,
            "HR": 12.0,
            "BF": 695.0,
            "Pitches": 2651.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 2.5357,
            "R": 2.8929,
            "H": 5.75,
            "BB": 2.0357,
            "SO": 5.1786,
            "HR": 0.4286,
            "BF": 24.8214,
            "Pitches": 94.6786
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.9122,
            "WHIP": 1.3347,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.43469,
            "H_per_IP": 0.98571,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.34898,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.88776,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07347
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.564,
        "predicted_H": 5.548,
        "predicted_BB": 1.959,
        "predicted_SO": 5.241,
        "predicted_HR": 0.44,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.1233,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3416
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.414,
      "form_weight": 0.586,
      "form_reliability": 0.8485,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 28.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8485,
        "prior_weight": 0.1515
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.564,
          "final": 1.9165,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 5.548,
          "final": 4.9071,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 1.959,
          "final": 2.804,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 5.241,
          "final": 3.8992,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.44,
          "final": 0.6718,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.1233,
          "final": 4.1233,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3416,
          "final": 1.3416,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 56.1,
        "ER": 21,
        "H": 56,
        "BB": 15,
        "SO": 55,
        "HR": 3,
        "ERA": 3.355029585798817,
        "WHIP": 1.2603550295857988,
        "K9": 8.786982248520712,
        "HR9": 0.4792899408284024,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 5,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-04T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8826802588822527,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 4.0,
          "predicted_SO": 2.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 28.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8485,
          "prior_weight": 0.1515
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "669358",
      "player_name": "Shane Baz",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "BAL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 2.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_R": 1.0,
            "predicted_SO": 2.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
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              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
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              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 4.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 1.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 4.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
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            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 2.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
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          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
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            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "BAL",
        "games": 146,
        "wins": 70,
        "losses": 76,
        "win_pct": 0.4795,
        "runs_scored": 652.0,
        "runs_allowed": 683.0,
        "run_differential": -31.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2123,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4658,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6781,
        "offense_index": 0.9979,
        "defense_index": 0.9567,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4,
          "run_differential": -10.0
        },
        "available": true,
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      },
      "opponent": {
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        "games": 146,
        "wins": 74,
        "losses": 72,
        "win_pct": 0.5068,
        "runs_scored": 593.0,
        "runs_allowed": 605.0,
        "run_differential": -12.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.0822,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0616,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1438,
        "offense_index": 0.9076,
        "defense_index": 1.08,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7,
          "run_differential": 0.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0307
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.1442,
        "offense_edge": -0.0021,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0924,
        "defense_strength": -0.0433,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.08,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.3
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9966,
        "run_prevention": 0.9968,
        "strikeout": 1.0031
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "669358",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "669358",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 596.0,
            "k_percent": 20.9,
            "bb_percent": 8.2,
            "woba": 0.312,
            "xwoba": 0.31,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 35.4,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.6,
            "hard_hit_percent": 41.3,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.8881,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.3736,
            "whiff_percent": 22.3,
            "swing_percent": 48.5
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 117.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6392,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9158,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.0684,
            "command_and_miss": -0.1557,
            "regression_edge": 0.0571,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.0286,
            "barrel_edge": 0.1111,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.4857,
            "whiff_edge": -0.3857,
            "bb_edge": 0.25,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0496
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "669358",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 87,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 87,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.76192251441194,
              "release_spin_rate": 2407.5287280515663,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 87,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.76192251441194,
                "release_spin_rate": 2407.5287280515663,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.7619,
              "release_spin_rate": 2407.5287,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0496,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.3545,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.0691,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0059,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9783,
          "walk_factor": 0.98,
          "homer_factor": 1.0097,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.002,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "669358",
            "espn_id": 39639,
            "player_name": "Shane Baz",
            "team": "BAL",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 91,
            "espn_total_ranked": 859,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 91,
              "gp_value": 28.0,
              "gp_rank": 257,
              "gs_value": 28.0,
              "gs_rank": 21,
              "qs_value": 12.0,
              "qs_rank": 33,
              "era_value": 3.9122,
              "era_rank": 29.0,
              "w_value": 5.0,
              "w_rank": 143,
              "l_value": 15.0,
              "l_rank": 1,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 248,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 350,
              "ip_value": 163.1,
              "ip_rank": 15,
              "h_value": 161.0,
              "h_rank": 7,
              "er_value": 71.0,
              "er_rank": 23,
              "hr_value": 12.0,
              "hr_rank": 132,
              "bb_value": 57.0,
              "bb_rank": 19,
              "k_value": 145.0,
              "k_rank": 33,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.989796,
              "k_per_9_rank": 59,
              "whip_value": 1.3346,
              "whip_rank": 39.0,
              "war_value": 1.76,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0059,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0059,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.98,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.0097,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9783,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 4,
      "predicted_SO": 2,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 26,
      "Pitches": 111,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +4; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -3."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260909_CLE@BAL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260909

20260909_COL@NYY

away

Tomoyuki Sugano

True

4.2

6.0

3/4

2/3

7/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 5.19493670886076,
      "WHIP": 1.3518987341772153,
      "IP": 131.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 25,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.267,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.8,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -1.0765,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0915,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9154,
      "walk_factor": 0.922,
      "homer_factor": 1.1907,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 14.0,
      "bb_percent": 5.3,
      "woba": 0.362,
      "xwoba": 0.389,
      "barrel_percent": 12.3,
      "hard_hit_percent": 43.4,
      "whiff_percent": 18.2
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 121,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 25.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8333,
        "prior_weight": 0.1667
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "608372",
      "report_date": "20260909",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 25,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 24.0,
            "ER": 22.0,
            "R": 23.0,
            "H": 38.0,
            "BB": 4.0,
            "SO": 18.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 115.0,
            "Pitches": 455.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 4.4,
            "R": 4.6,
            "H": 7.6,
            "BB": 0.8,
            "SO": 3.6,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 23.0,
            "Pitches": 91.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 8.25,
            "WHIP": 1.75,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.91667,
            "H_per_IP": 1.58333,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.16667,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.75,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.20833
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 52.1,
            "ER": 38.0,
            "R": 39.0,
            "H": 68.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 33.0,
            "HR": 13.0,
            "BF": 231.0,
            "Pitches": 878.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 3.8,
            "R": 3.9,
            "H": 6.8,
            "BB": 0.8,
            "SO": 3.3,
            "HR": 1.3,
            "BF": 23.1,
            "Pitches": 87.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.535,
            "WHIP": 1.4522,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.72611,
            "H_per_IP": 1.29936,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.15287,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.63057,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.24841
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 25,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 131.2,
            "ER": 76.0,
            "R": 79.0,
            "H": 148.0,
            "BB": 30.0,
            "SO": 79.0,
            "HR": 27.0,
            "BF": 566.0,
            "Pitches": 2173.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 3.04,
            "R": 3.16,
            "H": 5.92,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 3.16,
            "HR": 1.08,
            "BF": 22.64,
            "Pitches": 86.92
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.1949,
            "WHIP": 1.3519,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.57722,
            "H_per_IP": 1.12405,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.22785,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.6,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.20506
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 3.695,
        "predicted_H": 6.647,
        "predicted_BB": 1.04,
        "predicted_SO": 3.629,
        "predicted_HR": 1.051,
        "predicted_ERA": 6.6149,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.5289
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4204,
      "form_weight": 0.5796,
      "form_reliability": 0.8333,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 25.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8333,
        "prior_weight": 0.1667
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 3.695,
          "final": 3.8232,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 6.647,
          "final": 5.1137,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.04,
          "final": 1.4436,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 3.629,
          "final": 5.0463,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.051,
          "final": 1.0296,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 6.6149,
          "final": 6.6149,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.5289,
          "final": 1.5289,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 52.1,
        "ER": 38,
        "H": 68,
        "BB": 8,
        "SO": 33,
        "HR": 13,
        "ERA": 6.535031847133758,
        "WHIP": 1.4522292993630572,
        "K9": 5.675159235668789,
        "HR9": 2.235668789808917,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 4,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-02T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.245227370026865,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 7.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 25.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8333,
          "prior_weight": 0.1667
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.2,
          "predicted_ER": 4,
          "predicted_H": 3,
          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 7,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "608372",
      "player_name": "Tomoyuki Sugano",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "COL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.2,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": -0.8,
              "percent_delta": -0.16,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": -0.8,
              "percent_delta": -0.16,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.2,
            "predicted_R": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.2,
              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 4.2,
            "delta": -0.8,
            "percent_delta": -0.16,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 7.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
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          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            "delta": -0.8,
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            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "COL",
        "games": 144,
        "wins": 55,
        "losses": 89,
        "win_pct": 0.3819,
        "runs_scored": 682.0,
        "runs_allowed": 824.0,
        "run_differential": -142.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.9861,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.7361,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.7222,
        "offense_index": 1.0581,
        "defense_index": 0.7823,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9,
          "run_differential": -4.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.2915
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "NYY",
        "games": 144,
        "wins": 82,
        "losses": 62,
        "win_pct": 0.5694,
        "runs_scored": 651.0,
        "runs_allowed": 532.0,
        "run_differential": 119.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.8264,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5208,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.6944,
        "offense_index": 1.01,
        "defense_index": 1.2116,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.6,
          "run_differential": 18.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1955
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.487,
        "offense_edge": 0.0581,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.01,
        "defense_strength": -0.2177,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.2116,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.3
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9736,
        "run_prevention": 1.0477,
        "strikeout": 0.9846
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "608372",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "608372",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 487.0,
            "k_percent": 14.0,
            "bb_percent": 5.3,
            "woba": 0.362,
            "xwoba": 0.389,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 38.1,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 12.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 43.4,
            "avg_best_speed": 80.7357,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 95.1726,
            "whiff_percent": 18.2,
            "swing_percent": 46.8
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 117.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6392,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9158,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -1.4657,
            "command_and_miss": -0.6593,
            "regression_edge": -0.7714,
            "xwoba_edge": -2.2286,
            "barrel_edge": -1.1556,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.7857,
            "whiff_edge": -0.9714,
            "bb_edge": 0.975,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0898
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "608372",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 89,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 89,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.27152055516693,
              "release_spin_rate": 2295.6362856997916,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 89,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.27152055516693,
                "release_spin_rate": 2295.6362856997916,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.2715,
              "release_spin_rate": 2295.6363,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0898,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.6417,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -1.0765,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0915,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9154,
          "walk_factor": 0.922,
          "homer_factor": 1.1907,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.027,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "608372",
            "espn_id": 4142423,
            "player_name": "Tomoyuki Sugano",
            "team": "COL",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 121,
            "espn_total_ranked": 859,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 121,
              "gp_value": 25.0,
              "gp_rank": 317,
              "gs_value": 25.0,
              "gs_rank": 59,
              "qs_value": 8.0,
              "qs_rank": 75,
              "era_value": 5.1949,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 12.0,
              "w_rank": 16,
              "l_value": 8.0,
              "l_rank": 58,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 248,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 350,
              "ip_value": 131.2,
              "ip_rank": 75,
              "h_value": 148.0,
              "h_rank": 20,
              "er_value": 76.0,
              "er_rank": 16,
              "hr_value": 27.0,
              "hr_rank": 5,
              "bb_value": 30.0,
              "bb_rank": 162,
              "k_value": 79.0,
              "k_rank": 156,
              "k_per_9_value": 5.3999996,
              "k_per_9_rank": 56,
              "whip_value": 1.3518,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 1.52,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0915,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 1.0915,
            "adjusted": 8
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.922,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.1907,
            "adjusted": 1
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9154,
            "adjusted": 3
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.2,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 19,
      "Pitches": 87,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260909_COL@NYY.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260909

20260909_COL@NYY

home

Will Warren

True

5.0

6.0

-3

3/4

2/2

5/8

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "ERA": 4.158924205378973,
      "WHIP": 1.3789731051344742,
      "IP": 136.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 28,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.128,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.067,
      "last_start_IP": 7.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.2318,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0197,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9863,
      "walk_factor": 0.974,
      "homer_factor": 1.0597,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 22.4,
      "bb_percent": 7.9,
      "woba": 0.335,
      "xwoba": 0.327,
      "barrel_percent": 7.6,
      "hard_hit_percent": 44.4,
      "whiff_percent": 22.2
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 214,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 28.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8485,
        "prior_weight": 0.1515
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "701542",
      "report_date": "20260909",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 28,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 22.1,
            "ER": 10.0,
            "R": 11.0,
            "H": 22.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 19.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 98.0,
            "Pitches": 394.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.2,
            "H": 4.4,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 3.8,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 19.6,
            "Pitches": 78.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.0299,
            "WHIP": 1.4328,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.44776,
            "H_per_IP": 0.98507,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.44776,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.85075,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.22388
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 43.0,
            "ER": 20.0,
            "R": 21.0,
            "H": 44.0,
            "BB": 16.0,
            "SO": 39.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 184.0,
            "Pitches": 740.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.1,
            "H": 4.4,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 3.9,
            "HR": 0.7,
            "BF": 18.4,
            "Pitches": 74.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.186,
            "WHIP": 1.3953,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.46512,
            "H_per_IP": 1.02326,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.37209,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.90698,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.16279
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 28,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 136.1,
            "ER": 63.0,
            "R": 76.0,
            "H": 141.0,
            "BB": 47.0,
            "SO": 133.0,
            "HR": 20.0,
            "BF": 594.0,
            "Pitches": 2318.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.25,
            "R": 2.7143,
            "H": 5.0357,
            "BB": 1.6786,
            "SO": 4.75,
            "HR": 0.7143,
            "BF": 21.2143,
            "Pitches": 82.7857
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.1589,
            "WHIP": 1.379,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.4621,
            "H_per_IP": 1.03423,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.34474,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.97555,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1467
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.106,
        "predicted_H": 4.56,
        "predicted_BB": 1.802,
        "predicted_SO": 4.102,
        "predicted_HR": 0.822,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.1688,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3989
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.414,
      "form_weight": 0.586,
      "form_reliability": 0.8485,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_size": 28.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8485,
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      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.2,
          "final": 4.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.106,
          "final": 2.8901,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 4.56,
          "final": 3.9141,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.802,
          "final": 1.884,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.102,
          "final": 4.4738,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.822,
          "final": 0.4817,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.1688,
          "final": 4.1688,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3989,
          "final": 1.3989,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 43.0,
        "ER": 20,
        "H": 44,
        "BB": 16,
        "SO": 39,
        "HR": 7,
        "ERA": 4.186046511627907,
        "WHIP": 1.3953488372093024,
        "K9": 8.162790697674419,
        "HR9": 1.4651162790697674,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 2,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-04T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9795445082286127,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 28.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8485,
          "prior_weight": 0.1515
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "701542",
      "player_name": "Will Warren",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "NYY",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 0,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
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          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "NYY",
        "games": 144,
        "wins": 82,
        "losses": 62,
        "win_pct": 0.5694,
        "runs_scored": 651.0,
        "runs_allowed": 532.0,
        "run_differential": 119.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.8264,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5208,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.6944,
        "offense_index": 1.01,
        "defense_index": 1.2116,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.6,
          "run_differential": 18.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1955
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "COL",
        "games": 144,
        "wins": 55,
        "losses": 89,
        "win_pct": 0.3819,
        "runs_scored": 682.0,
        "runs_allowed": 824.0,
        "run_differential": -142.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.9861,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.7361,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.7222,
        "offense_index": 1.0581,
        "defense_index": 0.7823,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9,
          "run_differential": -4.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.2915
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.487,
        "offense_edge": 0.01,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0581,
        "defense_strength": 0.2116,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.2177,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.3
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0235,
        "run_prevention": 0.9638,
        "strikeout": 1.01
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "701542",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "701542",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 532.0,
            "k_percent": 22.4,
            "bb_percent": 7.9,
            "woba": 0.335,
            "xwoba": 0.327,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.1,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.6,
            "hard_hit_percent": 44.4,
            "avg_best_speed": 80.6379,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 95.0983,
            "whiff_percent": 22.2,
            "swing_percent": 44.0
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 117.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6392,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9158,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.4351,
            "command_and_miss": -0.0493,
            "regression_edge": 0.2286,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.4571,
            "barrel_edge": -0.1111,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.9286,
            "whiff_edge": -0.4,
            "bb_edge": 0.325,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0232
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "701542",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 87,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 87,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.29017897188778,
              "release_spin_rate": 2501.6864996074655,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 87,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.29017897188778,
                "release_spin_rate": 2501.6864996074655,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.2902,
              "release_spin_rate": 2501.6865,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0232,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.1658,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.2318,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0197,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9863,
          "walk_factor": 0.974,
          "homer_factor": 1.0597,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.008,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "701542",
            "espn_id": 5132011,
            "player_name": "Will Warren",
            "team": "NYY",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 214,
            "espn_total_ranked": 859,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 214,
              "gp_value": 28.0,
              "gp_rank": 257,
              "gs_value": 26.0,
              "gs_rank": 52,
              "qs_value": 7.0,
              "qs_rank": 81,
              "era_value": 4.1589,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 9.0,
              "w_rank": 40,
              "l_value": 6.0,
              "l_rank": 111,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 248,
              "hld_value": 1.0,
              "hld_rank": 270,
              "ip_value": 136.1,
              "ip_rank": 66,
              "h_value": 141.0,
              "h_rank": 31,
              "er_value": 63.0,
              "er_rank": 53,
              "hr_value": 20.0,
              "hr_rank": 37,
              "bb_value": 47.0,
              "bb_rank": 50,
              "k_value": 133.0,
              "k_rank": 50,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.779951,
              "k_per_9_rank": 20,
              "whip_value": 1.3789,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.76,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0197,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0197,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.974,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0597,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9863,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 20,
      "Pitches": 84,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260909_COL@NYY.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260909

20260909_HOU@PHI

away

Hunter Brown

True

5.2

5.0

-2

2/7

3/0

7/7

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.310344827586207,
      "WHIP": 1.2988505747126438,
      "IP": 87.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 16,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.438,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.667,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.3386,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9712,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0251,
      "walk_factor": 1.068,
      "homer_factor": 0.9629,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 25.5,
      "bb_percent": 12.6,
      "woba": 0.3,
      "xwoba": 0.291,
      "barrel_percent": 6.3,
      "hard_hit_percent": 36.9,
      "whiff_percent": 25.9
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 78,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 16.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7619,
        "prior_weight": 0.2381
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "686613",
      "report_date": "20260909",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 16,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 28.1,
            "ER": 9.0,
            "R": 9.0,
            "H": 26.0,
            "BB": 14.0,
            "SO": 30.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 119.0,
            "Pitches": 483.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 1.8,
            "H": 5.2,
            "BB": 2.8,
            "SO": 6.0,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 23.8,
            "Pitches": 96.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.8588,
            "WHIP": 1.4118,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.31765,
            "H_per_IP": 0.91765,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.49412,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.05882,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10588
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 57.2,
            "ER": 21.0,
            "R": 21.0,
            "H": 44.0,
            "BB": 29.0,
            "SO": 58.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 237.0,
            "Pitches": 960.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.1,
            "R": 2.1,
            "H": 4.4,
            "BB": 2.9,
            "SO": 5.8,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 23.7,
            "Pitches": 96.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.2775,
            "WHIP": 1.2659,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.36416,
            "H_per_IP": 0.76301,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.50289,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.00578,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10405
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 16,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 87.0,
            "ER": 32.0,
            "R": 34.0,
            "H": 67.0,
            "BB": 46.0,
            "SO": 93.0,
            "HR": 10.0,
            "BF": 365.0,
            "Pitches": 1502.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.125,
            "H": 4.1875,
            "BB": 2.875,
            "SO": 5.8125,
            "HR": 0.625,
            "BF": 22.8125,
            "Pitches": 93.875
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.3103,
            "WHIP": 1.2989,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.36782,
            "H_per_IP": 0.77011,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.52874,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.06897,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11494
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.14,
        "predicted_H": 4.868,
        "predicted_BB": 2.653,
        "predicted_SO": 5.716,
        "predicted_HR": 0.653,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.4291,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3392
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4506,
      "form_weight": 0.5494,
      "form_reliability": 0.7619,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 16.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7619,
        "prior_weight": 0.2381
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.14,
          "final": 2.9781,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 4.868,
          "final": 3.5757,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.653,
          "final": 2.8094,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 5.716,
          "final": 6.2946,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 0.653,
          "final": 1.26,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.4291,
          "final": 3.4291,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3392,
          "final": 1.3392,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
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        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
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        "trend": "stable"
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      "pitching": {
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        "ER": 21,
        "H": 44,
        "BB": 29,
        "SO": 58,
        "HR": 6,
        "ERA": 3.2774566473988442,
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        "K9": 9.052023121387284,
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      "fielding": {
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        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-03T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8740918264165414,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7619,
          "prior_weight": 0.2381
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "686613",
      "player_name": "Hunter Brown",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "HOU",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            "direction": "no_change",
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
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            "projection_effect": "worse",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 7.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
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        ],
        "summary": {
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          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
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            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
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            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "HOU",
        "games": 145,
        "wins": 74,
        "losses": 71,
        "win_pct": 0.5103,
        "runs_scored": 653.0,
        "runs_allowed": 690.0,
        "run_differential": -37.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2552,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5034,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7586,
        "offense_index": 1.0063,
        "defense_index": 0.9405,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.2,
          "run_differential": 5.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0124
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "PHI",
        "games": 145,
        "wins": 81,
        "losses": 64,
        "win_pct": 0.5586,
        "runs_scored": 647.0,
        "runs_allowed": 613.0,
        "run_differential": 34.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.2345,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4621,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2276,
        "offense_index": 0.997,
        "defense_index": 1.0586,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.5,
          "run_differential": 9.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1136
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.1012,
        "offense_edge": 0.0063,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.003,
        "defense_strength": -0.0595,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0586,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9943,
        "run_prevention": 1.0105,
        "strikeout": 0.9972
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "686613",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "686613",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 291.0,
            "k_percent": 25.5,
            "bb_percent": 12.6,
            "woba": 0.3,
            "xwoba": 0.291,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 27.9,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 36.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 73.7698,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.1817,
            "whiff_percent": 25.9,
            "swing_percent": 41.6
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 117.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6392,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9158,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.4929,
            "command_and_miss": 0.1,
            "regression_edge": 0.2571,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.5714,
            "barrel_edge": 0.1778,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.1429,
            "whiff_edge": 0.1286,
            "bb_edge": -0.85,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.1355
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "686613",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 90,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 90,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 92.29605869429095,
              "release_spin_rate": 2200.9095575606843,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 90,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 92.29605869429095,
                "release_spin_rate": 2200.9095575606843,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 92.2961,
              "release_spin_rate": 2200.9096,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.1355,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.9681,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.3386,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9712,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0251,
          "walk_factor": 1.068,
          "homer_factor": 0.9629,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.009,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "686613",
            "espn_id": 4717803,
            "player_name": "Hunter Brown",
            "team": "HOU",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 78,
            "espn_total_ranked": 859,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 78,
              "gp_value": 16.0,
              "gp_rank": 447,
              "gs_value": 16.0,
              "gs_rank": 130,
              "qs_value": 7.0,
              "qs_rank": 81,
              "era_value": 3.3103,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 5.0,
              "w_rank": 143,
              "l_value": 3.0,
              "l_rank": 238,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 248,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 350,
              "ip_value": 87.0,
              "ip_rank": 146,
              "h_value": 67.0,
              "h_rank": 172,
              "er_value": 32.0,
              "er_rank": 175,
              "hr_value": 10.0,
              "hr_rank": 158,
              "bb_value": 46.0,
              "bb_rank": 56,
              "k_value": 93.0,
              "k_rank": 115,
              "k_per_9_value": 9.620689,
              "k_per_9_rank": 21,
              "whip_value": 1.2988,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 1.91,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9712,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9712,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.068,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9629,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0251,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 99,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 5",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +5."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -3."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260909_HOU@PHI.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260909

20260909_HOU@PHI

home

Cristopher Sánchez

True

6.1

6.0

-1

4/10

2/0

7/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.580882352941176,
      "WHIP": 1.196691176470588,
      "IP": 181.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 29,
      "role_avg_IP": 6.253,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.333,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.5312,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9548,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0731,
      "walk_factor": 0.928,
      "homer_factor": 0.985,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 27.5,
      "bb_percent": 5.6,
      "woba": 0.288,
      "xwoba": 0.279,
      "barrel_percent": 6.8,
      "hard_hit_percent": 41.0,
      "whiff_percent": 32.3
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 1,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 29.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8529,
        "prior_weight": 0.1471
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "650911",
      "report_date": "20260909",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 29,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 31.2,
            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 8.0,
            "H": 28.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 33.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 126.0,
            "Pitches": 481.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.1,
            "ER": 1.6,
            "R": 1.6,
            "H": 5.6,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 6.6,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 25.2,
            "Pitches": 96.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.2737,
            "WHIP": 1.1053,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.25263,
            "H_per_IP": 0.88421,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.22105,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.04211,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.03158
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 61.0,
            "ER": 17.0,
            "R": 18.0,
            "H": 59.0,
            "BB": 18.0,
            "SO": 70.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 256.0,
            "Pitches": 981.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.7,
            "R": 1.8,
            "H": 5.9,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 7.0,
            "HR": 0.3,
            "BF": 25.6,
            "Pitches": 98.1
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.5082,
            "WHIP": 1.2623,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.27869,
            "H_per_IP": 0.96721,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.29508,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.14754,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.04918
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 29,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 181.1,
            "ER": 52.0,
            "R": 58.0,
            "H": 175.0,
            "BB": 42.0,
            "SO": 207.0,
            "HR": 14.0,
            "BF": 752.0,
            "Pitches": 2781.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.1,
            "ER": 1.7931,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 6.0345,
            "BB": 1.4483,
            "SO": 7.1379,
            "HR": 0.4828,
            "BF": 25.931,
            "Pitches": 95.8966
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.5809,
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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        "predicted_WHIP": {
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    "recent_form_analysis": {
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      "pitching": {
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-04T00:00:00"
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
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        "stats": {
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    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
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        {
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          "stats": {
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        {
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          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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      "total_change": {
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        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
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          "has_material_change": true,
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
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        "wins": 81,
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        "win_pct": 0.5586,
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        "runs_allowed": 613.0,
        "run_differential": 34.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.2345,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4621,
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        "available": true,
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      "opponent": {
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        "wins": 74,
        "losses": 71,
        "win_pct": 0.5103,
        "runs_scored": 653.0,
        "runs_allowed": 690.0,
        "run_differential": -37.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2552,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5034,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7586,
        "offense_index": 1.0063,
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        "recent": {
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          "avg_runs_scored": 3.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.2,
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      "edges": {
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        "offense_edge": -0.003,
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        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0595,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
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      "player_factors": {
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        "strikeout": 1.0025
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "650911",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "650911",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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            "xwoba": 0.279,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 31.8,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.8,
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            "avg_best_speed": 77.9155,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.3218,
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          "league_medians": {
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            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
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            "avg_best_speed": 77.6392,
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            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
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          "components": {
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            "command_and_miss": 0.8986,
            "regression_edge": 0.2571,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.9143,
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "650911",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 92,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 92,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.39508390967275,
              "release_spin_rate": 2081.2610513716268,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
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            "pitch_mix": [
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                "pitches": 92,
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                "release_speed": 90.39508390967275,
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                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
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                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
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            "components": {
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              "velocity_edge": 0.2077,
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              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.5312,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9548,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0731,
          "walk_factor": 0.928,
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          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.009,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_name": "Cristopher Sanchez",
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            "espn_rank": 1,
            "espn_total_ranked": 859,
            "metrics": {
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              "gp_value": 29.0,
              "gp_rank": 230,
              "gs_value": 29.0,
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              "qs_value": 20.0,
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              "era_value": 2.5808,
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              "w_rank": 2,
              "l_value": 5.0,
              "l_rank": 135,
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              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 350,
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              "h_value": 175.0,
              "h_rank": 5,
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              "k_rank": 6,
              "k_per_9_value": 10.273897,
              "k_per_9_rank": 54,
              "whip_value": 1.1966,
              "whip_rank": 26.0,
              "war_value": 7.67,
              "war_rank": 1.0
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            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
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            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9548,
            "adjusted": 2
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          "predicted_H": {
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          "predicted_BB": {
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          "predicted_HR": {
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          "predicted_SO": {
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    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
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      "predicted_SO": 7,
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      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 25,
      "Pitches": 112,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +4; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 6",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +6."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was +2."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: True; actual quality start: False."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260909_HOU@PHI.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260909

20260909_LAA@BOS

away

Ryan Johnson

True

5.1

6.0

-1

4/5

3/1

7/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 5.170212765957447,
      "WHIP": 1.3914893617021278,
      "IP": 78.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 18,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.889,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.533,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.5139,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0437,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9617,
      "walk_factor": 1.04,
      "homer_factor": 1.081,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 17.1,
      "bb_percent": 11.2,
      "woba": 0.338,
      "xwoba": 0.35,
      "barrel_percent": 10.0,
      "hard_hit_percent": 37.2,
      "whiff_percent": 23.2
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 677,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 18.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7826,
        "prior_weight": 0.2174
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "696270",
      "report_date": "20260909",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 18,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 27.2,
            "ER": 5.0,
            "R": 5.0,
            "H": 15.0,
            "BB": 13.0,
            "SO": 20.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 108.0,
            "Pitches": 434.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 1.0,
            "R": 1.0,
            "H": 3.0,
            "BB": 2.6,
            "SO": 4.0,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 21.6,
            "Pitches": 86.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.6265,
            "WHIP": 1.012,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.18072,
            "H_per_IP": 0.54217,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.46988,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.72289,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10843
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 50.0,
            "ER": 23.0,
            "R": 23.0,
            "H": 37.0,
            "BB": 28.0,
            "SO": 34.0,
            "HR": 8.0,
            "BF": 208.0,
            "Pitches": 835.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.3,
            "R": 2.3,
            "H": 3.7,
            "BB": 2.8,
            "SO": 3.4,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 20.8,
            "Pitches": 83.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.14,
            "WHIP": 1.3,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.46,
            "H_per_IP": 0.74,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.56,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.68,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.16
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 18,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 78.1,
            "ER": 45.0,
            "R": 50.0,
            "H": 71.0,
            "BB": 38.0,
            "SO": 58.0,
            "HR": 16.0,
            "BF": 339.0,
            "Pitches": 1352.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 2.5,
            "R": 2.7778,
            "H": 3.9444,
            "BB": 2.1111,
            "SO": 3.2222,
            "HR": 0.8889,
            "BF": 18.8333,
            "Pitches": 75.1111
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.1702,
            "WHIP": 1.3915,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.57447,
            "H_per_IP": 0.90638,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.48511,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.74043,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.20426
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.02,
        "predicted_H": 3.885,
        "predicted_BB": 2.474,
        "predicted_SO": 3.959,
        "predicted_HR": 0.758,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.4935,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2222
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4419,
      "form_weight": 0.5581,
      "form_reliability": 0.7826,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 18.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7826,
        "prior_weight": 0.2174
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.1,
          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.02,
          "final": 2.8949,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 3.885,
          "final": 3.9358,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.474,
          "final": 2.7064,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 3.959,
          "final": 4.8608,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.758,
          "final": 0.4231,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.4935,
          "final": 3.4935,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2222,
          "final": 1.2222,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 50.0,
        "ER": 23,
        "H": 37,
        "BB": 28,
        "SO": 34,
        "HR": 8,
        "ERA": 4.14,
        "WHIP": 1.3,
        "K9": 6.12,
        "HR9": 1.44,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 2,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-04T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9719805547402406,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 6.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 18.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7826,
          "prior_weight": 0.2174
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "696270",
      "player_name": "Ryan Johnson",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "LAA",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.1,
            "predicted_R": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0438,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.1667,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 1,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.1667,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0438,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
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            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0437,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.1667,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 2,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
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          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": {
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            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.1667,
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          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0437,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "LAA",
        "games": 145,
        "wins": 55,
        "losses": 90,
        "win_pct": 0.3793,
        "runs_scored": 585.0,
        "runs_allowed": 660.0,
        "run_differential": -75.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.5172,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0345,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5517,
        "offense_index": 0.9015,
        "defense_index": 0.9832,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.2,
          "run_differential": 2.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.2362
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "BOS",
        "games": 146,
        "wins": 80,
        "losses": 66,
        "win_pct": 0.5479,
        "runs_scored": 648.0,
        "runs_allowed": 564.0,
        "run_differential": 84.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.5753,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4384,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.863,
        "offense_index": 0.9917,
        "defense_index": 1.1585,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.5,
          "run_differential": -15.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1464
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.3826,
        "offense_edge": -0.0985,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0083,
        "defense_strength": -0.0168,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1585,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.3
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9845,
        "run_prevention": 1.0195,
        "strikeout": 0.9892
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "696270",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "696270",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 271.0,
            "k_percent": 17.1,
            "bb_percent": 11.2,
            "woba": 0.338,
            "xwoba": 0.35,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 31.4,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 10.0,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.2,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.1049,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.828,
            "whiff_percent": 23.2,
            "swing_percent": 45.6
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 117.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6392,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9158,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.5996,
            "command_and_miss": -0.505,
            "regression_edge": -0.3429,
            "xwoba_edge": -1.1143,
            "barrel_edge": -0.6444,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.1,
            "whiff_edge": -0.2571,
            "bb_edge": -0.5,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.1569
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "696270",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 82,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 82,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 87.07415991966134,
              "release_spin_rate": 2270.636552773629,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 82,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 87.07415991966134,
                "release_spin_rate": 2270.636552773629,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.0742,
              "release_spin_rate": 2270.6366,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1569,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.1206,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.5139,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0437,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9617,
          "walk_factor": 1.04,
          "homer_factor": 1.081,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.012,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "696270",
            "espn_id": 5007859,
            "player_name": "Ryan Johnson",
            "team": "LAA",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 677,
            "espn_total_ranked": 859,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 677,
              "gp_value": 18.0,
              "gp_rank": 413,
              "gs_value": 15.0,
              "gs_rank": 134,
              "qs_value": 3.0,
              "qs_rank": 139,
              "era_value": 5.1702,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 3.0,
              "w_rank": 242,
              "l_value": 8.0,
              "l_rank": 58,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 248,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 350,
              "ip_value": 78.1,
              "ip_rank": 164,
              "h_value": 71.0,
              "h_rank": 157,
              "er_value": 45.0,
              "er_rank": 127,
              "hr_value": 16.0,
              "hr_rank": 81,
              "bb_value": 38.0,
              "bb_rank": 100,
              "k_value": 58.0,
              "k_rank": 235,
              "k_per_9_value": 6.66383,
              "k_per_9_rank": 38,
              "whip_value": 1.3914,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": -0.22,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0437,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0437,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.04,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.081,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9617,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 103,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was +2."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260909_LAA@BOS.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260909

20260909_LAA@BOS

home

Jake Bennett

True

5.2

5.1

-1

7/9

1/1

6/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.341137123745819,
      "WHIP": 1.0234113712374582,
      "IP": 99.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 17,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.863,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.667,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.346,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9706,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9874,
      "walk_factor": 0.908,
      "homer_factor": 0.974,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 20.5,
      "bb_percent": 4.6,
      "woba": 0.264,
      "xwoba": 0.279,
      "barrel_percent": 7.5,
      "hard_hit_percent": 36.9,
      "whiff_percent": 24.3
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 83,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 17.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7727,
        "prior_weight": 0.2273
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "687562",
      "report_date": "20260909",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 17,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 28.1,
            "ER": 14.0,
            "R": 15.0,
            "H": 25.0,
            "BB": 5.0,
            "SO": 31.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 115.0,
            "Pitches": 405.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.8,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 6.2,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 23.0,
            "Pitches": 81.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.4471,
            "WHIP": 1.0588,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.49412,
            "H_per_IP": 0.88235,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.17647,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.09412,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.14118
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 59.0,
            "ER": 23.0,
            "R": 24.0,
            "H": 51.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 50.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 238.0,
            "Pitches": 810.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 2.3,
            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 5.1,
            "BB": 1.1,
            "SO": 5.0,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 23.8,
            "Pitches": 81.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.5085,
            "WHIP": 1.0508,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.38983,
            "H_per_IP": 0.86441,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.18644,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.84746,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10169
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 17,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 99.2,
            "ER": 37.0,
            "R": 38.0,
            "H": 84.0,
            "BB": 18.0,
            "SO": 81.0,
            "HR": 9.0,
            "BF": 395.0,
            "Pitches": 1384.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 2.1765,
            "R": 2.2353,
            "H": 4.9412,
            "BB": 1.0588,
            "SO": 4.7647,
            "HR": 0.5294,
            "BF": 23.2353,
            "Pitches": 81.4118
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.3411,
            "WHIP": 1.0234,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.37124,
            "H_per_IP": 0.84281,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.1806,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.81271,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0903
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.603,
        "predicted_H": 5.179,
        "predicted_BB": 1.301,
        "predicted_SO": 5.511,
        "predicted_HR": 0.719,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.0335,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1157
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.446,
      "form_weight": 0.554,
      "form_reliability": 0.7727,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 17.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7727,
        "prior_weight": 0.2273
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.603,
          "final": 3.2261,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 8.0,
          "form": 5.179,
          "final": 6.4373,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.301,
          "final": 1.1667,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 5.511,
          "final": 5.7291,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.719,
          "final": 0.8443,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.0335,
          "final": 4.0335,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1157,
          "final": 1.1157,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 59.0,
        "ER": 23,
        "H": 51,
        "BB": 11,
        "SO": 50,
        "HR": 6,
        "ERA": 3.5084745762711864,
        "WHIP": 1.0508474576271187,
        "K9": 7.627118644067797,
        "HR9": 0.9152542372881356,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 6,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-03T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8947051310114271,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 8.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 6.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 17.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7727,
          "prior_weight": 0.2273
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.2,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 8,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 6,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "687562",
      "player_name": "Jake Bennett",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "BOS",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 8.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 8.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.25,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 2,
            "better_metrics": 1,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
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              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.125,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.2,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 8.0,
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              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.125,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 8.0,
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            "delta": -1.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 3,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 3,
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          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
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            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "BOS",
        "games": 146,
        "wins": 80,
        "losses": 66,
        "win_pct": 0.5479,
        "runs_scored": 648.0,
        "runs_allowed": 564.0,
        "run_differential": 84.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.5753,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4384,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.863,
        "offense_index": 0.9917,
        "defense_index": 1.1585,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.5,
          "run_differential": -15.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1464
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "LAA",
        "games": 145,
        "wins": 55,
        "losses": 90,
        "win_pct": 0.3793,
        "runs_scored": 585.0,
        "runs_allowed": 660.0,
        "run_differential": -75.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.5172,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0345,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5517,
        "offense_index": 0.9015,
        "defense_index": 0.9832,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.2,
          "run_differential": 2.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.2362
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.3826,
        "offense_edge": -0.0083,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0985,
        "defense_strength": 0.1585,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0168,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.3
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.024,
        "run_prevention": 0.9493,
        "strikeout": 1.0194
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "687562",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "687562",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 318.0,
            "k_percent": 20.5,
            "bb_percent": 4.6,
            "woba": 0.264,
            "xwoba": 0.279,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 31.4,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.5,
            "hard_hit_percent": 36.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.3764,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9574,
            "whiff_percent": 24.3,
            "swing_percent": 53.5
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 117.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6392,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9158,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.6588,
            "command_and_miss": 0.0986,
            "regression_edge": -0.4286,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.9143,
            "barrel_edge": -0.0889,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.1429,
            "whiff_edge": -0.1,
            "bb_edge": 1.15,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0712
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "687562",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 87,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 87,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.60453343047513,
              "release_spin_rate": 2085.5376155344834,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 87,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.60453343047513,
                "release_spin_rate": 2085.5376155344834,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.6045,
              "release_spin_rate": 2085.5376,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0712,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.5085,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.346,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9706,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9874,
          "walk_factor": 0.908,
          "homer_factor": 0.974,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.015,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "687562",
            "espn_id": 4654024,
            "player_name": "Jake Bennett",
            "team": "BOS",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 83,
            "espn_total_ranked": 859,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 83,
              "gp_value": 17.0,
              "gp_rank": 429,
              "gs_value": 17.0,
              "gs_rank": 121,
              "qs_value": 9.0,
              "qs_rank": 65,
              "era_value": 3.3411,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 9.0,
              "w_rank": 40,
              "l_value": 6.0,
              "l_rank": 111,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 248,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 350,
              "ip_value": 99.2,
              "ip_rank": 125,
              "h_value": 84.0,
              "h_rank": 138,
              "er_value": 37.0,
              "er_rank": 159,
              "hr_value": 9.0,
              "hr_rank": 175,
              "bb_value": 18.0,
              "bb_rank": 325,
              "k_value": 81.0,
              "k_rank": 150,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.3143816,
              "k_per_9_rank": 32,
              "whip_value": 1.0234,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 1.83,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9706,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9706,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.908,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.974,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 0.9874,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 7,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 25,
      "Pitches": 104,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +3."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was +2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260909_LAA@BOS.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260909

20260909_MIN@DET

away

Zebby Matthews

True

6.0

2.1

-11

5/2

1/4

6/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.6923076923076925,
      "WHIP": 1.2478632478632479,
      "IP": 117.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 20,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.85,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.2,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.3309,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0281,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9703,
      "walk_factor": 0.952,
      "homer_factor": 1.1068,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 19.9,
      "bb_percent": 6.8,
      "woba": 0.329,
      "xwoba": 0.328,
      "barrel_percent": 11.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 41.6,
      "whiff_percent": 21.9
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 171,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 20.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8,
        "prior_weight": 0.2
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "805673",
      "report_date": "20260909",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 20,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 31.0,
            "ER": 11.0,
            "R": 11.0,
            "H": 26.0,
            "BB": 5.0,
            "SO": 24.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 122.0,
            "Pitches": 476.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.1,
            "ER": 2.2,
            "R": 2.2,
            "H": 5.2,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 4.8,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 24.4,
            "Pitches": 95.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.1935,
            "WHIP": 1.0,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.35484,
            "H_per_IP": 0.83871,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.16129,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.77419,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.16129
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 56.0,
            "ER": 31.0,
            "R": 36.0,
            "H": 58.0,
            "BB": 17.0,
            "SO": 46.0,
            "HR": 9.0,
            "BF": 238.0,
            "Pitches": 941.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 3.1,
            "R": 3.6,
            "H": 5.8,
            "BB": 1.7,
            "SO": 4.6,
            "HR": 0.9,
            "BF": 23.8,
            "Pitches": 94.1
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.9821,
            "WHIP": 1.3393,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.55357,
            "H_per_IP": 1.03571,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.30357,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.82143,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.16071
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 20,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 117.0,
            "ER": 61.0,
            "R": 66.0,
            "H": 113.0,
            "BB": 33.0,
            "SO": 97.0,
            "HR": 22.0,
            "BF": 487.0,
            "Pitches": 1862.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 3.05,
            "R": 3.3,
            "H": 5.65,
            "BB": 1.65,
            "SO": 4.85,
            "HR": 1.1,
            "BF": 24.35,
            "Pitches": 93.1
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.6923,
            "WHIP": 1.2479,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.52137,
            "H_per_IP": 0.96581,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.28205,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.82906,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.18803
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.809,
        "predicted_H": 5.67,
        "predicted_BB": 1.581,
        "predicted_SO": 4.998,
        "predicted_HR": 0.978,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.1946,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2032
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4345,
      "form_weight": 0.5655,
      "form_reliability": 0.8,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 20.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8,
        "prior_weight": 0.2
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 6.0,
          "final": 6.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.809,
          "final": 3.3265,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.67,
          "final": 5.3789,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.581,
          "final": 1.3286,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.998,
          "final": 4.9989,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.978,
          "final": 0.5531,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.1946,
          "final": 4.1946,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2032,
          "final": 1.2032,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 56.0,
        "ER": 31,
        "H": 58,
        "BB": 17,
        "SO": 46,
        "HR": 9,
        "ERA": 4.982142857142857,
        "WHIP": 1.3392857142857142,
        "K9": 7.392857142857143,
        "HR9": 1.4464285714285714,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-04T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.067703769025955,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 20.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8,
          "prior_weight": 0.2
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "805673",
      "player_name": "Zebby Matthews",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "MIN",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_R": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.2,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 1,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.2,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.2,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 0,
          "better_metrics": 1,
          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.2,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "MIN",
        "games": 145,
        "wins": 69,
        "losses": 76,
        "win_pct": 0.4759,
        "runs_scored": 673.0,
        "runs_allowed": 721.0,
        "run_differential": -48.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.331,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.6414,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9724,
        "offense_index": 1.0326,
        "defense_index": 0.904,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3,
          "run_differential": 11.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.061
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "DET",
        "games": 145,
        "wins": 66,
        "losses": 79,
        "win_pct": 0.4552,
        "runs_scored": 634.0,
        "runs_allowed": 584.0,
        "run_differential": 50.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.3448,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3724,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0276,
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        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.9,
          "run_differential": -20.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0659
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0049,
        "offense_edge": 0.0326,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0273,
        "defense_strength": -0.096,
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        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9984,
        "run_prevention": 1.005,
        "strikeout": 1.0023
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "805673",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "805673",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 409.0,
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            "xwoba": 0.328,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.6,
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          },
          "league_medians": {
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            "bb_percent": 9.2,
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            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
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            "avg_best_speed": 77.6392,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9158,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
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          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.5172,
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            "regression_edge": 0.0286,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.4857,
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            "hard_hit_edge": -0.5286,
            "whiff_edge": -0.4429,
            "bb_edge": 0.6,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0004
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "805673",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 89,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 89,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.8834097777443,
              "release_spin_rate": 2245.73417209907,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 89,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.8834097777443,
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                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.8834,
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              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
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              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
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              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0004,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
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              "velocity_edge": 0.0031,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.3309,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0281,
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          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_id": "805673",
            "espn_id": 4791597,
            "player_name": "Zebby Matthews",
            "team": "MIN",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 171,
            "espn_total_ranked": 859,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 171,
              "gp_value": 20.0,
              "gp_rank": 392,
              "gs_value": 20.0,
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              "qs_value": 10.0,
              "qs_rank": 58,
              "era_value": 4.6923,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 9.0,
              "w_rank": 40,
              "l_value": 9.0,
              "l_rank": 29,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 248,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 350,
              "ip_value": 117.0,
              "ip_rank": 96,
              "h_value": 113.0,
              "h_rank": 92,
              "er_value": 61.0,
              "er_rank": 62,
              "hr_value": 22.0,
              "hr_rank": 23,
              "bb_value": 33.0,
              "bb_rank": 135,
              "k_value": 97.0,
              "k_rank": 106,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.4615383,
              "k_per_9_rank": 29,
              "whip_value": 1.2478,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 1.12,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0281,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0281,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.952,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.1068,
            "adjusted": 1
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9703,
            "adjusted": 5
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 25,
      "Pitches": 100,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least three innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -11 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was +3."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260909_MIN@DET.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260909

20260909_MIN@DET

home

Keider Montero

True

5.2

4.0

-5

-1

3/2

7/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
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      "games_started": null,
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      "last_start_IP": 4.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
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      "strikeout_factor": 0.9309,
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      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 16.6,
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      "woba": 0.272,
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      "barrel_percent": 7.0,
      "hard_hit_percent": 36.7,
      "whiff_percent": 18.3
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 40,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.2,
      "season_IP": 143.0,
      "season_ERA": 3.524,
      "season_WHIP": 1.028,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
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      "effective_weights": {
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
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      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "672456",
      "report_date": "20260909",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 29,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
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            "SO": 15.0,
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          },
          "per_game": {
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            "H": 4.8,
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            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 22.4,
            "Pitches": 80.6
          },
          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.1625,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.5625,
            "H_per_IP": 0.9,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.2625,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.5625,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15
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        },
        "last_10": {
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          "totals": {
            "IP": 48.2,
            "ER": 23.0,
            "R": 25.0,
            "H": 43.0,
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            "SO": 36.0,
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            "Pitches": 751.0
          },
          "per_game": {
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            "HR": 0.6,
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            "Pitches": 75.1
          },
          "rates": {
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            "ER_per_IP": 0.4726,
            "H_per_IP": 0.88356,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.22603,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.73973,
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          }
        },
        "season": {
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            "R": 60.0,
            "H": 115.0,
            "BB": 32.0,
            "SO": 96.0,
            "HR": 15.0,
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            "Pitches": 2084.0
          },
          "per_game": {
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            "ER": 1.931,
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            "ER_per_IP": 0.39161,
            "H_per_IP": 0.8042,
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            "SO_per_IP": 0.67133,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1049
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
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        "predicted_H": 4.647,
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        "predicted_SO": 3.603,
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        "predicted_ERA": 4.4753,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1503
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
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      "form_reliability": 0.8529,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
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      "applied_metrics": {
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          "form": 5.1,
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
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          "form": 2.599,
          "final": 3.1764,
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
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          "form": 4.647,
          "final": 3.9682,
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        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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          "final": 2.0383,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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          "final": 5.0031,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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          "final": 0.8231,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.4753,
          "final": 4.4753,
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
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          "form": 1.1503,
          "final": 1.1503,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
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        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
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      "pitching": {
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        "ER": 23,
        "H": 43,
        "BB": 11,
        "SO": 36,
        "HR": 6,
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        "K9": 6.657534246575342,
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        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 2,
        "dominant_form": false,
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      "fielding": {
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        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-04T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9799805547402406,
    "stat_evolution": [
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        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 7.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
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          "sample_size": 29.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8529,
          "prior_weight": 0.1471
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.2,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 3,
          "predicted_BB": 3,
          "predicted_SO": 7,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "672456",
      "player_name": "Keider Montero",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "DET",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.25,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 2,
            "better_metrics": 1,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.25,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.2,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.25,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 7.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 2,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 2,
          "better_metrics": 1,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.25,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "deboosted"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "DET",
        "games": 145,
        "wins": 66,
        "losses": 79,
        "win_pct": 0.4552,
        "runs_scored": 634.0,
        "runs_allowed": 584.0,
        "run_differential": 50.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.3448,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3724,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0276,
        "offense_index": 0.9727,
        "defense_index": 1.116,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.9,
          "run_differential": -20.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0659
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "MIN",
        "games": 145,
        "wins": 69,
        "losses": 76,
        "win_pct": 0.4759,
        "runs_scored": 673.0,
        "runs_allowed": 721.0,
        "run_differential": -48.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.331,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.6414,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9724,
        "offense_index": 1.0326,
        "defense_index": 0.904,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3,
          "run_differential": 11.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.061
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0049,
        "offense_edge": -0.0273,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0326,
        "defense_strength": 0.116,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.096,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.002,
        "run_prevention": 0.9939,
        "strikeout": 0.9972
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "672456",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "672456",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 528.0,
            "k_percent": 16.6,
            "bb_percent": 5.5,
            "woba": 0.272,
            "xwoba": 0.287,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 30.0,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.0,
            "hard_hit_percent": 36.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.301,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.5812,
            "whiff_percent": 18.3,
            "swing_percent": 48.2
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 117.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6392,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9158,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.5127,
            "command_and_miss": -0.4971,
            "regression_edge": -0.4286,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.6857,
            "barrel_edge": 0.0222,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.1714,
            "whiff_edge": -0.9571,
            "bb_edge": 0.925,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0082
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "672456",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 83,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 83,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.022307065353,
              "release_spin_rate": 2355.6795124392715,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 83,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.022307065353,
                "release_spin_rate": 2355.6795124392715,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.0223,
              "release_spin_rate": 2355.6795,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0082,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.0586,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.1157,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9902,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9309,
          "walk_factor": 0.926,
          "homer_factor": 0.9708,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.015,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "672456",
            "espn_id": 5182933,
            "player_name": "Keider Montero",
            "team": "DET",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 40,
            "espn_total_ranked": 859,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 40,
              "gp_value": 29.0,
              "gp_rank": 230,
              "gs_value": 23.0,
              "gs_rank": 79,
              "qs_value": 9.0,
              "qs_rank": 65,
              "era_value": 3.5244,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 9.0,
              "w_rank": 40,
              "l_value": 8.0,
              "l_rank": 58,
              "sv_value": 1.0,
              "sv_rank": 138,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 350,
              "ip_value": 143.0,
              "ip_rank": 52,
              "h_value": 115.0,
              "h_rank": 89,
              "er_value": 56.0,
              "er_rank": 79,
              "hr_value": 15.0,
              "hr_rank": 89,
              "bb_value": 32.0,
              "bb_rank": 144,
              "k_value": 96.0,
              "k_rank": 109,
              "k_per_9_value": 6.041958,
              "k_per_9_rank": 56,
              "whip_value": 1.0279,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 2.81,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9902,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9902,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.926,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9708,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9309,
            "adjusted": 3
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 101,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260909_MIN@DET.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260909

20260909_NYM@MIA

away

Robert Stock

True

4.1

4.0

-1

5/5

2/2

4/4

Last 10 before this game (7 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 5.810126582278481,
      "WHIP": 1.7468354430379747,
      "IP": 26.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 7,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.333,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.2,
      "last_start_IP": 5.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.0642,
      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0055,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9925,
      "walk_factor": 1.009,
      "homer_factor": 0.9887,
      "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 19.7,
      "bb_percent": 10.2,
      "woba": 0.359,
      "xwoba": 0.327,
      "barrel_percent": 7.0,
      "hard_hit_percent": 31.4,
      "whiff_percent": 24.4
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 648,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.7627118644067797,
        "last_10": 0.23728813559322032
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 7.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.5833,
        "prior_weight": 0.4167
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "476594",
      "report_date": "20260909",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 7,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 18.1,
            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 9.0,
            "H": 21.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 17.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 86.0,
            "Pitches": 330.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.2,
            "ER": 1.6,
            "R": 1.8,
            "H": 4.2,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 3.4,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 17.2,
            "Pitches": 66.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.9273,
            "WHIP": 1.5818,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.43636,
            "H_per_IP": 1.14545,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.43636,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.92727,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.05455
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 7,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 26.1,
            "ER": 17.0,
            "R": 18.0,
            "H": 33.0,
            "BB": 13.0,
            "SO": 25.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 127.0,
            "Pitches": 480.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.2,
            "ER": 2.4286,
            "R": 2.5714,
            "H": 4.7143,
            "BB": 1.8571,
            "SO": 3.5714,
            "HR": 0.2857,
            "BF": 18.1429,
            "Pitches": 68.5714
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.8101,
            "WHIP": 1.7468,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.64557,
            "H_per_IP": 1.25316,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.49367,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.94937,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07595
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 7,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 26.1,
            "ER": 17.0,
            "R": 18.0,
            "H": 33.0,
            "BB": 13.0,
            "SO": 25.0,
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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        "predicted_WHIP": {
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    "recent_form_analysis": {
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      "pitching": {
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      "fielding": {
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      "games_count": 7,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-04T00:00:00"
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      },
      {
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        "stats": {
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    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
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          "weights": {},
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        {
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          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
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          "changed_metrics": [
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        {
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          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
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            {
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
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        ],
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          "has_material_change": true,
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
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      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
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        "win_pct": 0.4621,
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        "run_differential": -41.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2828,
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      "opponent": {
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        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0548,
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      "edges": {
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        "offense_edge": -0.0569,
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      "player_factors": {
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "476594",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "476594",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "476594",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 82,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
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              "pitches": 82,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
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              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
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              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
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            "pitch_mix": [
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                "pitches": 82,
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                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
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                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 91.0045,
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
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          "quality_score": -0.0642,
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          "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_name": "Robert Stock",
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            "espn_total_ranked": 859,
            "metrics": {
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              "gp_value": 7.0,
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              "k_per_9_value": 8.544304,
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              "whip_value": 1.7468,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": -0.18,
              "war_rank": null
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            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
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          "predicted_H": {
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          "predicted_BB": {
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    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
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      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 90,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 7 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260909_NYM@MIA.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260909

20260909_NYM@MIA

home

Janson Junk

True

5.0

3.0

-6

4/8

2/1

3/0

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
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      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 22,
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      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
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      "barrel_percent": 6.9,
      "hard_hit_percent": 39.9,
      "whiff_percent": 15.1
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    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 176,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
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      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
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      "effective_weights": {
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      "shrinkage": {
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            "R": 5.0,
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            "SO_per_IP": 0.4918,
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
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            "R": 17.0,
            "H": 41.0,
            "BB": 12.0,
            "SO": 26.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 177.0,
            "Pitches": 667.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
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            "H": 4.1,
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            "ER_per_IP": 0.34884,
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            "SO_per_IP": 0.60465,
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        },
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            "IP": 108.0,
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            "SO": 74.0,
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          },
          "per_game": {
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            "R": 2.4091,
            "H": 4.9545,
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            "H_per_IP": 1.00926,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.26852,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.68519,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11111
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      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.1,
        "predicted_ER": 1.576,
        "predicted_H": 4.1,
        "predicted_BB": 1.254,
        "predicted_SO": 2.837,
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        "predicted_ERA": 3.1913,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2051
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
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      "adaptive_parameters": {
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        "predicted_ER": {
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
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          "form": 4.1,
          "final": 4.0572,
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        "predicted_BB": {
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        "predicted_SO": {
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        "predicted_HR": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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          "final": 3.1913,
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
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        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
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        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
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        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
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        "ER": 15,
        "H": 41,
        "BB": 12,
        "SO": 26,
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        "K9": 5.441860465116279,
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      },
      "fielding": {
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        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-04T00:00:00"
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    "recent_form_boost": 0.8577421826472174,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 3.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "676083",
      "player_name": "Janson Junk",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "MIA",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
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          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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          ],
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "changed_metrics": [
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        "strikeout": 1.0034
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
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        "pitcher_id": "676083",
        "profile": {
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          "pitcher_id": "676083",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.317,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 30.1,
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          "components": {
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
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            "pitcher_id": "676083",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 85,
            "primary_pitch": {
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              "pitches": 85,
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            "summary": {
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
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            "espn_total_ranked": 859,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 176,
              "gp_value": 22.0,
              "gp_rank": 362,
              "gs_value": 21.0,
              "gs_rank": 92,
              "qs_value": 3.0,
              "qs_rank": 139,
              "era_value": 4.0,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 6.0,
              "w_rank": 103,
              "l_value": 9.0,
              "l_rank": 29,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 248,
              "hld_value": 1.0,
              "hld_rank": 270,
              "ip_value": 108.0,
              "ip_rank": 113,
              "h_value": 109.0,
              "h_rank": 103,
              "er_value": 48.0,
              "er_rank": 116,
              "hr_value": 12.0,
              "hr_rank": 132,
              "bb_value": 29.0,
              "bb_rank": 172,
              "k_value": 74.0,
              "k_rank": 167,
              "k_per_9_value": 6.1666665,
              "k_per_9_rank": 39,
              "whip_value": 1.2777,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 1.08,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0209,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0209,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.944,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.013,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9109,
            "adjusted": 3
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 3,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 91,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 5",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +5; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -6 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +4."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260909_NYM@MIA.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260909

20260909_PIT@CHW

away

Lake Bachar

True

5.0

1.2

-10

-2

5/2

2/1

6/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.0128755364806867,
      "WHIP": 1.004291845493562,
      "IP": 77.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 46,
      "role_avg_IP": 2.333,
      "recent_avg_IP": 2.2,
      "last_start_IP": 2.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.2847,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9758,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.044,
      "walk_factor": 1.018,
      "homer_factor": 0.9875,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 25.2,
      "bb_percent": 10.1,
      "woba": 0.285,
      "xwoba": 0.292,
      "barrel_percent": 8.5,
      "hard_hit_percent": 34.2,
      "whiff_percent": 29.5
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 179,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.2,
      "season_IP": 77.2,
      "season_ERA": 3.013,
      "season_WHIP": 1.004,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 15.631,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7576,
        "prior_weight": 0.2424
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "669199",
      "report_date": "20260909",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 46,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 9.0,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 2.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 8.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 36.0,
            "Pitches": 149.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.2,
            "ER": 0.4,
            "R": 0.4,
            "H": 0.4,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 1.6,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 7.2,
            "Pitches": 29.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.0,
            "WHIP": 1.1111,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.22222,
            "H_per_IP": 0.22222,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.88889,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.88889,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11111
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 22.0,
            "ER": 6.0,
            "R": 6.0,
            "H": 10.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 21.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 85.0,
            "Pitches": 352.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 2.1,
            "ER": 0.6,
            "R": 0.6,
            "H": 1.0,
            "BB": 1.1,
            "SO": 2.1,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 8.5,
            "Pitches": 35.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.4545,
            "WHIP": 0.9545,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.27273,
            "H_per_IP": 0.45455,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.5,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.95455,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.18182
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 46,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 77.2,
            "ER": 26.0,
            "R": 28.0,
            "H": 48.0,
            "BB": 30.0,
            "SO": 80.0,
            "HR": 12.0,
            "BF": 311.0,
            "Pitches": 1252.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.2,
            "ER": 0.5652,
            "R": 0.6087,
            "H": 1.0435,
            "BB": 0.6522,
            "SO": 1.7391,
            "HR": 0.2609,
            "BF": 6.7609,
            "Pitches": 27.2174
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.0129,
            "WHIP": 1.0043,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.33476,
            "H_per_IP": 0.61803,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.38627,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.03004,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15451
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 2.2,
        "predicted_ER": 0.9,
        "predicted_H": 1.478,
        "predicted_BB": 1.643,
        "predicted_SO": 2.644,
        "predicted_HR": 0.408,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.8791,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1095
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4524,
      "form_weight": 0.5476,
      "form_reliability": 0.7576,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 15.631,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7576,
        "prior_weight": 0.2424
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 2.2,
          "final": 4.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 0.9,
          "final": 1.3977,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 1.478,
          "final": 3.0714,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.643,
          "final": 1.8045,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 2.644,
          "final": 4.1623,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.408,
          "final": 0.6758,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.8791,
          "final": 2.8791,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1095,
          "final": 1.1095,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 22.0,
        "ER": 6,
        "H": 10,
        "BB": 11,
        "SO": 21,
        "HR": 4,
        "ERA": 2.4545454545454546,
        "WHIP": 0.9545454545454546,
        "K9": 8.590909090909092,
        "HR9": 1.6363636363636365,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-03T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8370886559371324,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 6.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 15.631,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7576,
          "prior_weight": 0.2424
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 5,
          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 6,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 5,
          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 6,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "669199",
      "player_name": "Lake Bachar",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "PIT",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": -0.6667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1176,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
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              "delta": -0.6667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1176,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 4,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": -0.6667,
            "percent_delta": -0.1177,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": -0.6667,
            "percent_delta": -0.1177,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "PIT",
        "games": 145,
        "wins": 72,
        "losses": 73,
        "win_pct": 0.4966,
        "runs_scored": 703.0,
        "runs_allowed": 671.0,
        "run_differential": 32.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.2207,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.8483,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6276,
        "offense_index": 1.0831,
        "defense_index": 0.9673,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8,
          "run_differential": 8.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0942
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "CHW",
        "games": 144,
        "wins": 75,
        "losses": 69,
        "win_pct": 0.5208,
        "runs_scored": 683.0,
        "runs_allowed": 640.0,
        "run_differential": 43.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.2986,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.7431,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4444,
        "offense_index": 1.0596,
        "defense_index": 1.0072,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.9,
          "run_differential": -4.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0194
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0748,
        "offense_edge": 0.0831,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0596,
        "defense_strength": -0.0327,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0072,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.3
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9996,
        "run_prevention": 1.0091,
        "strikeout": 0.9975
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "669199",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "669199",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 281.0,
            "k_percent": 25.2,
            "bb_percent": 10.1,
            "woba": 0.285,
            "xwoba": 0.292,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 30.2,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.5,
            "hard_hit_percent": 34.2,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.791,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.63,
            "whiff_percent": 29.5,
            "swing_percent": 45.1
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 117.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6392,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9158,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.3659,
            "command_and_miss": 0.3857,
            "regression_edge": -0.2,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.5429,
            "barrel_edge": -0.3111,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.5286,
            "whiff_edge": 0.6429,
            "bb_edge": -0.225,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0059
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "669199",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 52,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 52,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.77040919616555,
              "release_spin_rate": 2691.0164138592872,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 52,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.77040919616555,
                "release_spin_rate": 2691.0164138592872,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.7704,
              "release_spin_rate": 2691.0164,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0059,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.0421,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.2847,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9758,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.044,
          "walk_factor": 1.018,
          "homer_factor": 0.9875,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.007,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "669199",
            "espn_id": 42592,
            "player_name": "Lake Bachar",
            "team": "PIT",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 179,
            "espn_total_ranked": 859,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 179,
              "gp_value": 47.0,
              "gp_rank": 120,
              "gs_value": 8.0,
              "gs_rank": 188,
              "qs_value": 0.0,
              "qs_rank": 209,
              "era_value": 3.5922,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 1.0,
              "w_rank": 408,
              "l_value": 3.0,
              "l_rank": 238,
              "sv_value": 2.0,
              "sv_rank": 93,
              "hld_value": 1.0,
              "hld_rank": 270,
              "ip_value": 77.2,
              "ip_rank": 166,
              "h_value": 52.0,
              "h_rank": 232,
              "er_value": 31.0,
              "er_rank": 180,
              "hr_value": 13.0,
              "hr_rank": 123,
              "bb_value": 32.0,
              "bb_rank": 144,
              "k_value": 80.0,
              "k_rank": 154,
              "k_per_9_value": 9.270386,
              "k_per_9_rank": 25,
              "whip_value": 1.0815,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 1.05,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9758,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9758,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.018,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9875,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.044,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 98,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least three innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -10 outs from the projected workload."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260909_PIT@CHW.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260909

20260909_PIT@CHW

home

Davis Martin

True

5.0

-3

3/4

3/2

3/1

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.13265306122449,
      "WHIP": 1.316326530612245,
      "IP": 130.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 25,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.227,
      "recent_avg_IP": 3.933,
      "last_start_IP": 5.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.2361,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0201,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9851,
      "walk_factor": 0.96,
      "homer_factor": 1.0405,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 20.6,
      "bb_percent": 7.2,
      "woba": 0.321,
      "xwoba": 0.33,
      "barrel_percent": 6.5,
      "hard_hit_percent": 44.0,
      "whiff_percent": 23.8
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 63,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 25.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8333,
        "prior_weight": 0.1667
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "663436",
      "report_date": "20260909",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 25,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 19.2,
            "ER": 17.0,
            "R": 19.0,
            "H": 24.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 14.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 90.0,
            "Pitches": 335.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.0,
            "ER": 3.4,
            "R": 3.8,
            "H": 4.8,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 2.8,
            "HR": 1.2,
            "BF": 18.0,
            "Pitches": 67.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 7.7797,
            "WHIP": 1.5763,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.86441,
            "H_per_IP": 1.22034,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.35593,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.71186,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.30508
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 43.0,
            "ER": 29.0,
            "R": 31.0,
            "H": 50.0,
            "BB": 17.0,
            "SO": 27.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 195.0,
            "Pitches": 752.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 2.9,
            "R": 3.1,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 1.7,
            "SO": 2.7,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 19.5,
            "Pitches": 75.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.0698,
            "WHIP": 1.5581,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.67442,
            "H_per_IP": 1.16279,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.39535,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.62791,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13953
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 25,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 130.2,
            "ER": 60.0,
            "R": 62.0,
            "H": 132.0,
            "BB": 40.0,
            "SO": 114.0,
            "HR": 12.0,
            "BF": 553.0,
            "Pitches": 2115.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.48,
            "H": 5.28,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 4.56,
            "HR": 0.48,
            "BF": 22.12,
            "Pitches": 84.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.1327,
            "WHIP": 1.3163,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.45918,
            "H_per_IP": 1.0102,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.30612,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.87245,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09184
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.1,
        "predicted_ER": 3.053,
        "predicted_H": 5.056,
        "predicted_BB": 1.622,
        "predicted_SO": 3.374,
        "predicted_HR": 0.874,
        "predicted_ERA": 6.1258,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.4887
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4204,
      "form_weight": 0.5796,
      "form_reliability": 0.8333,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 25.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8333,
        "prior_weight": 0.1667
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.1,
          "final": 4.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 3.053,
          "final": 3.4511,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 5.056,
          "final": 4.1916,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 1.622,
          "final": 2.2014,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 3.374,
          "final": 3.2168,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 0.874,
          "final": 1.3474,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 6.1258,
          "final": 6.1258,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.4887,
          "final": 1.4887,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 43.0,
        "ER": 29,
        "H": 50,
        "BB": 17,
        "SO": 27,
        "HR": 6,
        "ERA": 6.069767441860464,
        "WHIP": 1.5581395348837206,
        "K9": 5.651162790697674,
        "HR9": 1.2558139534883719,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": true
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-02T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.195532880321636,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 3.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 25.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8333,
          "prior_weight": 0.1667
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "663436",
      "player_name": "Davis Martin",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CHW",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 0,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 0,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "CHW",
        "games": 144,
        "wins": 75,
        "losses": 69,
        "win_pct": 0.5208,
        "runs_scored": 683.0,
        "runs_allowed": 640.0,
        "run_differential": 43.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.2986,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.7431,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4444,
        "offense_index": 1.0596,
        "defense_index": 1.0072,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.9,
          "run_differential": -4.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0194
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "PIT",
        "games": 145,
        "wins": 72,
        "losses": 73,
        "win_pct": 0.4966,
        "runs_scored": 703.0,
        "runs_allowed": 671.0,
        "run_differential": 32.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.2207,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.8483,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6276,
        "offense_index": 1.0831,
        "defense_index": 0.9673,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8,
          "run_differential": 8.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0942
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0748,
        "offense_edge": 0.0596,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0831,
        "defense_strength": 0.0072,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0327,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.3
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9939,
        "run_prevention": 1.0163,
        "strikeout": 0.9911
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "663436",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "663436",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 513.0,
            "k_percent": 20.6,
            "bb_percent": 7.2,
            "woba": 0.321,
            "xwoba": 0.33,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 35.6,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.5,
            "hard_hit_percent": 44.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.3791,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.8054,
            "whiff_percent": 23.8,
            "swing_percent": 48.8
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 117.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6392,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9158,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.3535,
            "command_and_miss": -0.05,
            "regression_edge": -0.2571,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.5429,
            "barrel_edge": 0.1333,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.8714,
            "whiff_edge": -0.1714,
            "bb_edge": 0.5,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0077
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "663436",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 68,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 68,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.01319078482793,
              "release_spin_rate": 2482.815619480008,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 68,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.01319078482793,
                "release_spin_rate": 2482.815619480008,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.0132,
              "release_spin_rate": 2482.8156,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0077,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.055,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.2361,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0201,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9851,
          "walk_factor": 0.96,
          "homer_factor": 1.0405,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.009,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "663436",
            "espn_id": 42823,
            "player_name": "Davis Martin",
            "team": "CHW",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 63,
            "espn_total_ranked": 859,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 63,
              "gp_value": 25.0,
              "gp_rank": 317,
              "gs_value": 25.0,
              "gs_rank": 59,
              "qs_value": 10.0,
              "qs_rank": 58,
              "era_value": 4.1326,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 9.0,
              "w_rank": 40,
              "l_value": 6.0,
              "l_rank": 111,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 248,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 350,
              "ip_value": 130.2,
              "ip_rank": 80,
              "h_value": 132.0,
              "h_rank": 52,
              "er_value": 60.0,
              "er_rank": 65,
              "hr_value": 12.0,
              "hr_rank": 132,
              "bb_value": 40.0,
              "bb_rank": 84,
              "k_value": 114.0,
              "k_rank": 81,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.852041,
              "k_per_9_rank": 27,
              "whip_value": 1.3163,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 2.2,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0201,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0201,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.96,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0405,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9851,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 3,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 91,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -3."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260909_PIT@CHW.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260909

20260909_STL@SF

away

Andre Pallante

True

5.2

5.0

-2

-1

2/5

3/0

2/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.5106382978723403,
      "WHIP": 1.2411347517730495,
      "IP": 141.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 25,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.64,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.733,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0623,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9947,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.948,
      "walk_factor": 0.97,
      "homer_factor": 0.9347,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 16.8,
      "bb_percent": 7.7,
      "woba": 0.298,
      "xwoba": 0.305,
      "barrel_percent": 5.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 33.6,
      "whiff_percent": 21.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 55,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 25.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8333,
        "prior_weight": 0.1667
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "669467",
      "report_date": "20260909",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 25,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 28.2,
            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 8.0,
            "H": 26.0,
            "BB": 13.0,
            "SO": 15.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 115.0,
            "Pitches": 450.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 1.6,
            "R": 1.6,
            "H": 5.2,
            "BB": 2.6,
            "SO": 3.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 23.0,
            "Pitches": 90.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.5116,
            "WHIP": 1.3605,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.27907,
            "H_per_IP": 0.90698,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.45349,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.52326,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 58.1,
            "ER": 22.0,
            "R": 22.0,
            "H": 57.0,
            "BB": 20.0,
            "SO": 34.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 238.0,
            "Pitches": 925.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 2.2,
            "R": 2.2,
            "H": 5.7,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 3.4,
            "HR": 0.1,
            "BF": 23.8,
            "Pitches": 92.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.3943,
            "WHIP": 1.32,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.37714,
            "H_per_IP": 0.97714,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.34286,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.58286,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.01714
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 25,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 141.0,
            "ER": 55.0,
            "R": 57.0,
            "H": 130.0,
            "BB": 45.0,
            "SO": 98.0,
            "HR": 10.0,
            "BF": 584.0,
            "Pitches": 2275.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.2,
            "R": 2.28,
            "H": 5.2,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 3.92,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 23.36,
            "Pitches": 91.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.5106,
            "WHIP": 1.2411,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.39007,
            "H_per_IP": 0.92199,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.31915,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.69504,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07092
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.092,
        "predicted_H": 5.422,
        "predicted_BB": 2.22,
        "predicted_SO": 3.681,
        "predicted_HR": 0.237,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.2664,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3258
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4204,
      "form_weight": 0.5796,
      "form_reliability": 0.8333,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 25.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8333,
        "prior_weight": 0.1667
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.092,
          "final": 2.0533,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 5.422,
          "final": 3.9833,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.22,
          "final": 2.5479,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 3.681,
          "final": 2.9743,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.237,
          "final": 0.1374,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.2664,
          "final": 3.2664,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3258,
          "final": 1.3258,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 58.1,
        "ER": 22,
        "H": 57,
        "BB": 20,
        "SO": 34,
        "HR": 1,
        "ERA": 3.3942857142857146,
        "WHIP": 1.32,
        "K9": 5.245714285714286,
        "HR9": 0.1542857142857143,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-04T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8885876975973837,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 2.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 25.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8333,
          "prior_weight": 0.1667
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "669467",
      "player_name": "Andre Pallante",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "STL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 2.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
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            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
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            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
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          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "STL",
        "games": 146,
        "wins": 72,
        "losses": 74,
        "win_pct": 0.4932,
        "runs_scored": 662.0,
        "runs_allowed": 673.0,
        "run_differential": -11.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.0753,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5342,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6096,
        "offense_index": 1.0105,
        "defense_index": 0.9734,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.9,
          "run_differential": -1.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.05
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "SF",
        "games": 146,
        "wins": 61,
        "losses": 85,
        "win_pct": 0.4178,
        "runs_scored": 610.0,
        "runs_allowed": 683.0,
        "run_differential": -73.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.5,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1781,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6781,
        "offense_index": 0.9311,
        "defense_index": 0.9592,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.6,
          "run_differential": -5.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1312
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0812,
        "offense_edge": 0.0105,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0689,
        "defense_strength": -0.0266,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0408,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0052,
        "run_prevention": 0.9876,
        "strikeout": 1.0079
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "669467",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "669467",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 561.0,
            "k_percent": 16.8,
            "bb_percent": 7.7,
            "woba": 0.298,
            "xwoba": 0.305,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 31.0,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 5.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 33.6,
            "avg_best_speed": 75.5013,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.4611,
            "whiff_percent": 21.1,
            "swing_percent": 44.9
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 117.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6392,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9158,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.3578,
            "command_and_miss": -0.4543,
            "regression_edge": -0.2,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.1714,
            "barrel_edge": 0.4444,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.6143,
            "whiff_edge": -0.5571,
            "bb_edge": 0.375,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0001
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "669467",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 93,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 93,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.87700465293038,
              "release_spin_rate": 2282.6525343804033,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 93,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.87700465293038,
                "release_spin_rate": 2282.6525343804033,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.877,
              "release_spin_rate": 2282.6525,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0001,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.0005,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0623,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9947,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.948,
          "walk_factor": 0.97,
          "homer_factor": 0.9347,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.007,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "669467",
            "espn_id": 4109034,
            "player_name": "Andre Pallante",
            "team": "STL",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 55,
            "espn_total_ranked": 859,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 55,
              "gp_value": 25.0,
              "gp_rank": 317,
              "gs_value": 25.0,
              "gs_rank": 59,
              "qs_value": 9.0,
              "qs_rank": 65,
              "era_value": 3.5106,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 12.0,
              "w_rank": 16,
              "l_value": 6.0,
              "l_rank": 111,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 248,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 350,
              "ip_value": 141.0,
              "ip_rank": 54,
              "h_value": 130.0,
              "h_rank": 57,
              "er_value": 55.0,
              "er_rank": 87,
              "hr_value": 10.0,
              "hr_rank": 158,
              "bb_value": 45.0,
              "bb_rank": 59,
              "k_value": 98.0,
              "k_rank": 105,
              "k_per_9_value": 6.255319,
              "k_per_9_rank": 52,
              "whip_value": 1.2411,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 2.45,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9947,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9947,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.97,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9347,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.948,
            "adjusted": 3
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 2,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 96,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -3."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260909_STL@SF.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260909

20260909_STL@SF

home

Blade Tidwell

True

5.0

4.0

-3

5/5

1/2

3/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "ERA": 4.4296875,
      "WHIP": 1.2421875,
      "IP": 42.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 14,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.111,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.133,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.0419,
      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0036,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9913,
      "walk_factor": 1.009,
      "homer_factor": 1.0264,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 20.5,
      "bb_percent": 10.2,
      "woba": 0.304,
      "xwoba": 0.312,
      "barrel_percent": 10.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.7,
      "whiff_percent": 23.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 330,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 14.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7368,
        "prior_weight": 0.2632
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "694918",
      "report_date": "20260909",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 14,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 25.2,
            "ER": 15.0,
            "R": 15.0,
            "H": 19.0,
            "BB": 14.0,
            "SO": 23.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 107.0,
            "Pitches": 447.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 3.8,
            "BB": 2.8,
            "SO": 4.6,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 21.4,
            "Pitches": 89.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.2597,
            "WHIP": 1.2857,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.58442,
            "H_per_IP": 0.74026,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.54545,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.8961,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15584
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 36.2,
            "ER": 19.0,
            "R": 19.0,
            "H": 30.0,
            "BB": 17.0,
            "SO": 31.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 154.0,
            "Pitches": 642.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.2,
            "ER": 1.9,
            "R": 1.9,
            "H": 3.0,
            "BB": 1.7,
            "SO": 3.1,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 15.4,
            "Pitches": 64.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.6636,
            "WHIP": 1.2818,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.51818,
            "H_per_IP": 0.81818,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.46364,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.84545,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10909
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 14,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 42.2,
            "ER": 21.0,
            "R": 21.0,
            "H": 35.0,
            "BB": 18.0,
            "SO": 36.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 176.0,
            "Pitches": 729.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.0,
            "ER": 1.5,
            "R": 1.5,
            "H": 2.5,
            "BB": 1.2857,
            "SO": 2.5714,
            "HR": 0.3571,
            "BF": 12.5714,
            "Pitches": 52.0714
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.4297,
            "WHIP": 1.2422,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.49219,
            "H_per_IP": 0.82031,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.42188,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.84375,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11719
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.318,
        "predicted_H": 3.633,
        "predicted_BB": 2.007,
        "predicted_SO": 3.868,
        "predicted_HR": 0.591,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.7827,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2933
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4612,
      "form_weight": 0.5388,
      "form_reliability": 0.7368,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 14.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7368,
        "prior_weight": 0.2632
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.1,
          "final": 4.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.318,
          "final": 1.7101,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 3.633,
          "final": 4.2635,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.007,
          "final": 1.5426,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 3.868,
          "final": 3.4677,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.591,
          "final": 0.7796,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.7827,
          "final": 4.7827,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2933,
          "final": 1.2933,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 36.2,
        "ER": 19,
        "H": 30,
        "BB": 17,
        "SO": 31,
        "HR": 4,
        "ERA": 4.663636363636363,
        "WHIP": 1.2818181818181817,
        "K9": 7.6090909090909085,
        "HR9": 0.9818181818181817,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-03T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.030435100194786,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 3.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 14.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7368,
          "prior_weight": 0.2632
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "694918",
      "player_name": "Blade Tidwell",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "SF",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 1.0,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 0,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
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          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "SF",
        "games": 146,
        "wins": 61,
        "losses": 85,
        "win_pct": 0.4178,
        "runs_scored": 610.0,
        "runs_allowed": 683.0,
        "run_differential": -73.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.5,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1781,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6781,
        "offense_index": 0.9311,
        "defense_index": 0.9592,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.6,
          "run_differential": -5.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1312
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "STL",
        "games": 146,
        "wins": 72,
        "losses": 74,
        "win_pct": 0.4932,
        "runs_scored": 662.0,
        "runs_allowed": 673.0,
        "run_differential": -11.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.0753,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5342,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6096,
        "offense_index": 1.0105,
        "defense_index": 0.9734,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.9,
          "run_differential": -1.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.05
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0812,
        "offense_edge": -0.0689,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0105,
        "defense_strength": -0.0408,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0266,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9951,
        "run_prevention": 1.0098,
        "strikeout": 0.9967
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "694918",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "694918",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 110.0,
            "k_percent": 20.5,
            "bb_percent": 10.2,
            "woba": 0.304,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 28.6,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 10.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.514,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.0511,
            "whiff_percent": 23.1,
            "swing_percent": 44.6
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 117.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6392,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9158,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.0104,
            "command_and_miss": -0.2414,
            "regression_edge": -0.2286,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.0286,
            "barrel_edge": -0.6667,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.1143,
            "whiff_edge": -0.2714,
            "bb_edge": -0.25,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0219
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "694918",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 86,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 86,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.48410615286664,
              "release_spin_rate": 2488.224804520724,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 86,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.48410615286664,
                "release_spin_rate": 2488.224804520724,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.4841,
              "release_spin_rate": 2488.2248,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0219,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.1567,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.0419,
          "sample_weight": 0.45,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0036,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9913,
          "walk_factor": 1.009,
          "homer_factor": 1.0264,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.008,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "694918",
            "espn_id": 4719088,
            "player_name": "Blade Tidwell",
            "team": "SF",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 330,
            "espn_total_ranked": 859,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 330,
              "gp_value": 14.0,
              "gp_rank": 471,
              "gs_value": 6.0,
              "gs_rank": 202,
              "qs_value": 0.0,
              "qs_rank": 209,
              "era_value": 4.4296,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 0.0,
              "w_rank": 532,
              "l_value": 2.0,
              "l_rank": 327,
              "sv_value": 1.0,
              "sv_rank": 138,
              "hld_value": 1.0,
              "hld_rank": 270,
              "ip_value": 42.2,
              "ip_rank": 348,
              "h_value": 35.0,
              "h_rank": 368,
              "er_value": 21.0,
              "er_rank": 305,
              "hr_value": 5.0,
              "hr_rank": 316,
              "bb_value": 18.0,
              "bb_rank": 325,
              "k_value": 36.0,
              "k_rank": 373,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.59375,
              "k_per_9_rank": 28,
              "whip_value": 1.2421,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.22,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0016,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0016,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.004,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0119,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9961,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 3,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 83,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +3."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260909_STL@SF.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260909

20260909_TB@ATL

away

Griffin Jax

True

5.0

2/2

0/1

5/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.530035335689046,
      "WHIP": 1.2296819787985867,
      "IP": 94.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 29,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.491,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.867,
      "last_start_IP": 2.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.0573,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0049,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0537,
      "walk_factor": 0.978,
      "homer_factor": 1.0696,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 25.5,
      "bb_percent": 8.1,
      "woba": 0.314,
      "xwoba": 0.328,
      "barrel_percent": 9.2,
      "hard_hit_percent": 41.0,
      "whiff_percent": 30.9
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 660,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.0,
      "season_IP": 94.1,
      "season_ERA": 3.53,
      "season_WHIP": 1.23,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 29.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8529,
        "prior_weight": 0.1471
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "643377",
      "report_date": "20260909",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 29,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 24.1,
            "ER": 13.0,
            "R": 19.0,
            "H": 27.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 30.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 109.0,
            "Pitches": 406.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.6,
            "R": 3.8,
            "H": 5.4,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 6.0,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 21.8,
            "Pitches": 81.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.8082,
            "WHIP": 1.3973,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.53425,
            "H_per_IP": 1.10959,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.28767,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.23288,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08219
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 50.1,
            "ER": 22.0,
            "R": 30.0,
            "H": 46.0,
            "BB": 14.0,
            "SO": 60.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 212.0,
            "Pitches": 784.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.2,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 4.6,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 6.0,
            "HR": 0.7,
            "BF": 21.2,
            "Pitches": 78.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.9338,
            "WHIP": 1.1921,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.43709,
            "H_per_IP": 0.91391,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.27815,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.19205,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13907
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 29,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 94.1,
            "ER": 37.0,
            "R": 50.0,
            "H": 85.0,
            "BB": 31.0,
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      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-02T00:00:00"
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    "recent_form_boost": 0.946081548117724,
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        "stats": {
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    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
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          "weights": {},
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        {
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          "step": "current_json_final",
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "changed_metrics": [
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
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      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
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        "games": 144,
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        "losses": 58,
        "win_pct": 0.5972,
        "runs_scored": 654.0,
        "runs_allowed": 601.0,
        "run_differential": 53.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.3681,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5417,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1736,
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      },
      "opponent": {
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        "games": 145,
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        "run_differential_per_game": 0.7793,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5931,
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      "edges": {
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      "player_factors": {
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
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        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "643377",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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            "barrel_batted_rate": 9.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 41.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.8877,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.2913,
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          "league_medians": {
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            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
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            "avg_best_speed": 77.6392,
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            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
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          "components": {
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            "regression_edge": -0.4,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.4857,
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            "hard_hit_edge": -0.4429,
            "whiff_edge": 0.8429,
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            "pitch_design_score": 0.1027
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "643377",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 82,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
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              "pitches": 82,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 91.70945558397473,
              "release_spin_rate": 2569.512998358212,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
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            "pitch_mix": [
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                "pitches": 82,
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                "release_speed": 91.70945558397473,
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                "spin_axis": null,
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                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
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            "summary": {
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            "components": {
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.0573,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
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          "espn_rank": {
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            "espn_rank": 660,
            "espn_total_ranked": 859,
            "metrics": {
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              "gp_value": 30.0,
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              "whip_value": 1.272,
              "whip_rank": null,
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              "war_rank": null
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            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
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    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
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      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 17,
      "Pitches": 78,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260909_TB@ATL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260909

20260909_TB@ATL

home

Reynaldo López

True

5.0

4.2

-1

3/7

5/3

2/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "WHIP": 1.3395348837209302,
      "IP": 71.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 24,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.515,
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      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
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    "savant": {
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      "k_percent": 21.6,
      "bb_percent": 9.5,
      "woba": 0.322,
      "xwoba": 0.33,
      "barrel_percent": 7.7,
      "hard_hit_percent": 36.4,
      "whiff_percent": 21.8
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 211,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.0,
      "season_IP": 71.2,
      "season_ERA": 3.642,
      "season_WHIP": 1.34,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
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      "effective_weights": {
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      "shrinkage": {
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        "sample_size": 14.423,
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      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "625643",
      "report_date": "20260909",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 24,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 25.0,
            "ER": 11.0,
            "R": 11.0,
            "H": 24.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 26.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 105.0,
            "Pitches": 408.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.2,
            "R": 2.2,
            "H": 4.8,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 5.2,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 21.0,
            "Pitches": 81.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.96,
            "WHIP": 1.28,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.44,
            "H_per_IP": 0.96,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.32,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.04,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.16
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 35.1,
            "ER": 12.0,
            "R": 13.0,
            "H": 31.0,
            "BB": 12.0,
            "SO": 34.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 146.0,
            "Pitches": 604.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.2,
            "ER": 1.2,
            "R": 1.3,
            "H": 3.1,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 3.4,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 14.6,
            "Pitches": 60.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.0566,
            "WHIP": 1.217,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.33962,
            "H_per_IP": 0.87736,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.33962,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.96226,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11321
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 24,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 71.2,
            "ER": 29.0,
            "R": 33.0,
            "H": 67.0,
            "BB": 29.0,
            "SO": 66.0,
            "HR": 10.0,
            "BF": 306.0,
            "Pitches": 1226.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.0,
            "ER": 1.2083,
            "R": 1.375,
            "H": 2.7917,
            "BB": 1.2083,
            "SO": 2.75,
            "HR": 0.4167,
            "BF": 12.75,
            "Pitches": 51.0833
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.6419,
            "WHIP": 1.3395,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.40465,
            "H_per_IP": 0.93488,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.40465,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.92093,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13953
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.1,
        "predicted_ER": 1.847,
        "predicted_H": 4.085,
        "predicted_BB": 1.528,
        "predicted_SO": 4.253,
        "predicted_HR": 0.615,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.816,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2886
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4588,
      "form_weight": 0.5412,
      "form_reliability": 0.7426,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 14.423,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7426,
        "prior_weight": 0.2574
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.1,
          "final": 4.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 1.847,
          "final": 2.3759,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 4.085,
          "final": 3.5873,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 1.528,
          "final": 3.1208,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 4.253,
          "final": 3.2194,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.615,
          "final": 0.7916,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.816,
          "final": 3.816,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2886,
          "final": 1.2886,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 35.1,
        "ER": 12,
        "H": 31,
        "BB": 12,
        "SO": 34,
        "HR": 4,
        "ERA": 3.0566037735849054,
        "WHIP": 1.2169811320754715,
        "K9": 8.660377358490566,
        "HR9": 1.0188679245283019,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-07-26T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8480230075704294,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 5.0,
          "predicted_SO": 2.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 14.423,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7426,
          "prior_weight": 0.2574
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "625643",
      "player_name": "Reynaldo L\u00f3pez",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "ATL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 5.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 2.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 5.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 2.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 0,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 0,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "ATL",
        "games": 145,
        "wins": 85,
        "losses": 60,
        "win_pct": 0.5862,
        "runs_scored": 666.0,
        "runs_allowed": 553.0,
        "run_differential": 113.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.7793,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5931,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8138,
        "offense_index": 1.0261,
        "defense_index": 1.1737,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7,
          "run_differential": -2.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.169
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "TB",
        "games": 144,
        "wins": 86,
        "losses": 58,
        "win_pct": 0.5972,
        "runs_scored": 654.0,
        "runs_allowed": 601.0,
        "run_differential": 53.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.3681,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5417,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1736,
        "offense_index": 1.0146,
        "defense_index": 1.0725,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9,
          "run_differential": 1.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1628
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0062,
        "offense_edge": 0.0261,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0146,
        "defense_strength": 0.1737,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0725,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0049,
        "run_prevention": 0.9847,
        "strikeout": 0.999
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "625643",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "625643",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 275.0,
            "k_percent": 21.6,
            "bb_percent": 9.5,
            "woba": 0.322,
            "xwoba": 0.33,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 37.8,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.7,
            "hard_hit_percent": 36.4,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.251,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.6858,
            "whiff_percent": 21.8,
            "swing_percent": 45.6
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 117.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6392,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9158,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.2619,
            "command_and_miss": -0.2007,
            "regression_edge": -0.2286,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.5429,
            "barrel_edge": -0.1333,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.2143,
            "whiff_edge": -0.4571,
            "bb_edge": -0.075,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0489
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "625643",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 75,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 75,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.00255026873528,
              "release_spin_rate": 2163.9662551979723,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 75,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.00255026873528,
                "release_spin_rate": 2163.9662551979723,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.0026,
              "release_spin_rate": 2163.9663,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0489,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.3493,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.2256,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0192,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9794,
          "walk_factor": 1.006,
          "homer_factor": 1.0184,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.008,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "625643",
            "espn_id": 33860,
            "player_name": "Reynaldo Lopez",
            "team": "ATL",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 211,
            "espn_total_ranked": 859,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 211,
              "gp_value": 24.0,
              "gp_rank": 337,
              "gs_value": 11.0,
              "gs_rank": 162,
              "qs_value": 1.0,
              "qs_rank": 176,
              "era_value": 3.6418,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 4.0,
              "w_rank": 189,
              "l_value": 3.0,
              "l_rank": 238,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 248,
              "hld_value": 1.0,
              "hld_rank": 270,
              "ip_value": 71.2,
              "ip_rank": 176,
              "h_value": 67.0,
              "h_rank": 172,
              "er_value": 29.0,
              "er_rank": 194,
              "hr_value": 10.0,
              "hr_rank": 158,
              "bb_value": 29.0,
              "bb_rank": 172,
              "k_value": 66.0,
              "k_rank": 199,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.288372,
              "k_per_9_rank": 30,
              "whip_value": 1.3395,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.78,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0192,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0192,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.006,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0184,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9794,
            "adjusted": 5
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 5,
      "predicted_SO": 2,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 95,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +3."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +4."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260909_TB@ATL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260909

20260909_TEX@SEA

away

Cody Bradford

True

5.0

4.0

-3

4/4

2/2

4/1

Last 10 before this game (6 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "WHIP": 1.5824175824175826,
      "IP": 30.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 6,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.056,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.2,
      "last_start_IP": 4.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
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      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.027,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.956,
      "walk_factor": 0.964,
      "homer_factor": 1.0536,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 11.9,
      "bb_percent": 5.2,
      "woba": 0.38,
      "xwoba": 0.355,
      "barrel_percent": 11.0,
      "hard_hit_percent": 40.0,
      "whiff_percent": 18.0
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 319,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
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        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
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      "effective_weights": {
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      "shrinkage": {
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        "sample_size": 6.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.5455,
        "prior_weight": 0.4545
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "674003",
      "report_date": "20260909",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 6,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
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          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 26.0,
            "ER": 15.0,
            "R": 15.0,
            "H": 36.0,
            "BB": 5.0,
            "SO": 11.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 114.0,
            "Pitches": 422.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 7.2,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 2.2,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 22.8,
            "Pitches": 84.4
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          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.5769,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.57692,
            "H_per_IP": 1.38462,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.19231,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.42308,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15385
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        },
        "last_10": {
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          "totals": {
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            "R": 15.0,
            "H": 41.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 16.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 134.0,
            "Pitches": 492.0
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          "per_game": {
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            "R": 2.5,
            "H": 6.8333,
            "BB": 1.1667,
            "SO": 2.6667,
            "HR": 0.6667,
            "BF": 22.3333,
            "Pitches": 82.0
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          "rates": {
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            "ER_per_IP": 0.49451,
            "H_per_IP": 1.35165,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.23077,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.52747,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13187
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        },
        "season": {
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            "R": 15.0,
            "H": 41.0,
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            "SO": 16.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 134.0,
            "Pitches": 492.0
          },
          "per_game": {
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          "rates": {
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            "BB_per_IP": 0.23077,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.52747,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13187
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.763,
        "predicted_H": 6.16,
        "predicted_BB": 1.426,
        "predicted_SO": 3.432,
        "predicted_HR": 0.767,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.8214,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.4708
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
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      "adaptive_parameters": {
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
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          "form": 2.763,
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
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        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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          "final": 3.7399,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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          "form": 0.767,
          "final": 0.3513,
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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        "predicted_WHIP": {
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          "form": 1.4708,
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    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
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        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
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        "ER": 15,
        "H": 41,
        "BB": 7,
        "SO": 16,
        "HR": 4,
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        "WHIP": 1.5824175824175826,
        "K9": 4.747252747252747,
        "HR9": 1.1868131868131868,
        "games_pitched": 6,
        "quality_starts": 1,
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        "struggling_form": true
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      "fielding": {
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        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 6,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 6,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-02T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0138759244371247,
    "stat_evolution": [
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        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
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          "sample_size": 6.0,
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          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.5455,
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      },
      {
        "step": "starter_quality_floor",
        "description": "Weak starter floor restored expected damage from recent form instead of assigning it to zero-inning bullpen rows.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 4,
          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 4,
          "predicted_HR": 0
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "674003",
      "player_name": "Cody Bradford",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "TEX",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
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        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_quality_floor",
          "description": "Weak starter floor restored expected damage from recent form instead of assigning it to zero-inning bullpen rows.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
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          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            {
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              "projection_effect": "worse",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
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            {
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
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          "weights": {},
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      "total_change": {
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        "changed_metrics": [
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
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      "team": {
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        "wins": 72,
        "losses": 73,
        "win_pct": 0.4966,
        "runs_scored": 605.0,
        "runs_allowed": 644.0,
        "run_differential": -39.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.269,
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        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4414,
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      "opponent": {
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      "player_factors": {
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
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        "profile": {
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          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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          "components": {
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
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            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 75,
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                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 84.2662,
              "release_spin_rate": 1896.6628,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.28,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -2.0,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.3176,
          "sample_weight": 0.45,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.027,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.956,
          "walk_factor": 0.964,
          "homer_factor": 1.0536,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.025,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "674003",
            "espn_id": 4142539,
            "player_name": "Cody Bradford",
            "team": "TEX",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 319,
            "espn_total_ranked": 859,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 319,
              "gp_value": 6.0,
              "gp_rank": 608,
              "gs_value": 6.0,
              "gs_rank": 202,
              "qs_value": 1.0,
              "qs_rank": 176,
              "era_value": 4.4505,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 0.0,
              "w_rank": 532,
              "l_value": 4.0,
              "l_rank": 181,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 248,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 350,
              "ip_value": 30.1,
              "ip_rank": 432,
              "h_value": 41.0,
              "h_rank": 311,
              "er_value": 15.0,
              "er_rank": 420,
              "hr_value": 4.0,
              "hr_rank": 374,
              "bb_value": 7.0,
              "bb_rank": 551,
              "k_value": 16.0,
              "k_rank": 523,
              "k_per_9_value": 4.747253,
              "k_per_9_rank": 32,
              "whip_value": 1.5824,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.25,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0121,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 1.0121,
            "adjusted": 7
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9838,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0241,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9802,
            "adjusted": 2
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 95,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 6 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260909_TEX@SEA.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260909

20260909_TEX@SEA

home

Kade Anderson

True

5.0

6.0

-2

5/6

3/1

7/5

Last 10 before this game (3 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "WHIP": 1.4666666666666666,
      "IP": 15.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 3,
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      "recent_avg_IP": 5.0,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
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      "sample_weight": 0.45,
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      "woba": 0.357,
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      "barrel_percent": 6.7,
      "hard_hit_percent": 31.1,
      "whiff_percent": 21.3
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 540,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
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      "effective_weights": {
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      "shrinkage": {
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      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "807739",
      "report_date": "20260909",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 3,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
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            "BB": 2.3333,
            "SO": 3.6667,
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            "Pitches": 81.6667
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            "WHIP": 1.4667,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.6,
            "H_per_IP": 1.0,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.46667,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.73333,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.2
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 3,
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            "R": 9.0,
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            "Pitches": 245.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
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          },
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            "SO_per_IP": 0.73333,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.2
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        },
        "season": {
          "games": 3,
          "totals": {
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          },
          "per_game": {
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            "SO_per_IP": 0.73333,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.2
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
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        "predicted_H": 4.911,
        "predicted_BB": 2.035,
        "predicted_SO": 4.311,
        "predicted_HR": 0.831,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.8351,
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
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      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        "predicted_ER": {
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
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        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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          "form": 2.035,
          "final": 2.6276,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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        "predicted_HR": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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          "final": 4.8351,
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
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        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "insufficient_data"
      },
      "pitching": {
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        "ER": 9,
        "H": 15,
        "BB": 7,
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        "HR": 3,
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        "WHIP": 1.4666666666666666,
        "K9": 6.6,
        "HR9": 1.8,
        "games_pitched": 3,
        "quality_starts": 0,
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      },
      "fielding": {
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        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 3,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 3,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-03T00:00:00"
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    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 7.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.375,
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "807739",
      "player_name": "Kade Anderson",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "SEA",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
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          {
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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          {
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          },
          {
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          },
          {
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        ],
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    },
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      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
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        "wins": 67,
        "losses": 78,
        "win_pct": 0.4621,
        "runs_scored": 574.0,
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        "run_differential_per_game": -0.5241,
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        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.7,
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          "run_differential": -12.0
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        "runs_allowed": 644.0,
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        },
        "available": true,
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      },
      "edges": {
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        "offense_edge": -0.1178,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0701,
        "defense_strength": 0.001,
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        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.3
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      "player_factors": {
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        "strikeout": 1.0006
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "807739",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "807739",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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            "xwoba": 0.276,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.7,
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            "avg_best_speed": 77.0319,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 92.7484,
            "whiff_percent": 21.3,
            "swing_percent": 51.8
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 117.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6392,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9158,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.3232,
            "command_and_miss": -0.5693,
            "regression_edge": 2.0,
            "xwoba_edge": 1.0,
            "barrel_edge": 0.0889,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.9714,
            "whiff_edge": -0.5286,
            "bb_edge": -0.475,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": false,
            "pitcher_id": "807739",
            "reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
          },
          "quality_score": 0.1048,
          "sample_weight": 0.45,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9911,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9789,
          "walk_factor": 1.0171,
          "homer_factor": 0.9658,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.081,
          "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "807739",
            "espn_id": 5198748,
            "player_name": "Kade Anderson",
            "team": "SEA",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 540,
            "espn_total_ranked": 859,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 540,
              "gp_value": 3.0,
              "gp_rank": 708,
              "gs_value": 3.0,
              "gs_rank": 252,
              "qs_value": 0.0,
              "qs_rank": 209,
              "era_value": 5.4,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 0.0,
              "w_rank": 532,
              "l_value": 1.0,
              "l_rank": 427,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 248,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 350,
              "ip_value": 15.0,
              "ip_rank": 562,
              "h_value": 15.0,
              "h_rank": 565,
              "er_value": 9.0,
              "er_rank": 555,
              "hr_value": 3.0,
              "hr_rank": 439,
              "bb_value": 7.0,
              "bb_rank": 551,
              "k_value": 11.0,
              "k_rank": 578,
              "k_per_9_value": 6.6000004,
              "k_per_9_rank": 27,
              "whip_value": 1.4666,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": -0.03,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.996,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.996,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0077,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9846,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9905,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 100,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 3 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260909_TEX@SEA.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260909

20260909_TOR@OAK

away

Braydon Fisher

True

5.0

1.0

-12

-2

6/0

0/0

5/1

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.199052132701422,
      "WHIP": 1.2369668246445498,
      "IP": 70.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 69,
      "role_avg_IP": 1.125,
      "recent_avg_IP": 1.133,
      "last_start_IP": 1.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0572,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9951,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0263,
      "walk_factor": 1.082,
      "homer_factor": 1.0393,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 23.8,
      "bb_percent": 13.3,
      "woba": 0.29,
      "xwoba": 0.305,
      "barrel_percent": 9.6,
      "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
      "whiff_percent": 27.8
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 161,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.2,
      "season_IP": 70.1,
      "season_ERA": 3.199,
      "season_WHIP": 1.237,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 14.155,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.739,
        "prior_weight": 0.261
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "680755",
      "report_date": "20260909",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 69,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 0.0,
            "R": 0.0,
            "H": 2.0,
            "BB": 3.0,
            "SO": 7.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 17.0,
            "Pitches": 84.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.0,
            "ER": 0.0,
            "R": 0.0,
            "H": 0.4,
            "BB": 0.6,
            "SO": 1.4,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 3.4,
            "Pitches": 16.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 0.0,
            "WHIP": 1.1538,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.0,
            "H_per_IP": 0.46154,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.69231,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.61538,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 8.1,
            "ER": 1.0,
            "R": 4.0,
            "H": 7.0,
            "BB": 4.0,
            "SO": 11.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 34.0,
            "Pitches": 150.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 0.2,
            "ER": 0.1,
            "R": 0.4,
            "H": 0.7,
            "BB": 0.4,
            "SO": 1.1,
            "HR": 0.1,
            "BF": 3.4,
            "Pitches": 15.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.08,
            "WHIP": 1.32,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.12,
            "H_per_IP": 0.84,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.48,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.32,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 69,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 70.1,
            "ER": 25.0,
            "R": 32.0,
            "H": 49.0,
            "BB": 38.0,
            "SO": 68.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 286.0,
            "Pitches": 1140.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.0,
            "ER": 0.3623,
            "R": 0.4638,
            "H": 0.7101,
            "BB": 0.5507,
            "SO": 0.9855,
            "HR": 0.1014,
            "BF": 4.1449,
            "Pitches": 16.5217
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.1991,
            "WHIP": 1.237,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.35545,
            "H_per_IP": 0.69668,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.54028,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.96682,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09953
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 2.0,
        "predicted_ER": 0.456,
        "predicted_H": 1.55,
        "predicted_BB": 1.132,
        "predicted_SO": 2.7,
        "predicted_HR": 0.179,
        "predicted_ERA": 1.9257,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2584
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4603,
      "form_weight": 0.5397,
      "form_reliability": 0.739,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 14.155,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.739,
        "prior_weight": 0.261
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 2.0,
          "final": 3.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 0.456,
          "final": 1.6269,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 1.55,
          "final": 3.5982,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.132,
          "final": 0.611,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 2.7,
          "final": 3.7586,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.179,
          "final": 0.0966,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.9257,
          "final": 1.9257,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2584,
          "final": 1.2584,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 8.1,
        "ER": 1,
        "H": 7,
        "BB": 4,
        "SO": 11,
        "HR": 1,
        "ERA": 1.08,
        "WHIP": 1.3200000000000003,
        "K9": 11.880000000000003,
        "HR9": 1.08,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-06T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8986099864336583,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 6.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 14.155,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.739,
          "prior_weight": 0.261
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 6,
          "predicted_BB": 0,
          "predicted_SO": 5,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 6,
          "predicted_BB": 0,
          "predicted_SO": 5,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "680755",
      "player_name": "Braydon Fisher",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "TOR",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": -0.6667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1176,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": -0.6667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1176,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.3333,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.3333,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 4,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            },
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            }
          ],
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          },
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "changed_metrics": [
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          },
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
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      "player_factors": {
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "680755",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "680755",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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            "k_percent": 23.8,
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          "components": {
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            "xwoba_edge": 0.1714,
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          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": false,
            "pitcher_id": "680755",
            "reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
          },
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          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "680755",
            "espn_id": 41318,
            "player_name": "Braydon Fisher",
            "team": "TOR",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 161,
            "espn_total_ranked": 859,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 161,
              "gp_value": 69.0,
              "gp_rank": 5,
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              "w_rank": 242,
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              "bb_rank": 100,
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              "k_rank": 188,
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              "whip_value": 1.2369,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 1.17,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
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            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9951,
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          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9951,
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          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.082,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
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            "factor": 1.0393,
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          "predicted_SO": {
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            "factor": 1.0263,
            "adjusted": 3
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
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      "predicted_R": 2,
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      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 93,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least three innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -12 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 6",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was -6."
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  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260909_TOR@OAK.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260909

20260909_TOR@OAK

home

Brady Basso

True

4.1

4.0

-1

-3

5/3

1/2

2/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

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      "hard_hit_percent": 33.6,
      "whiff_percent": 20.5
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    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
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      "effective_weights": {
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            "SO_per_IP": 0.53571,
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        },
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          },
          "per_game": {
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        },
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          "per_game": {
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      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
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        "predicted_ER": {
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        },
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        },
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    "recent_form_analysis": {
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      "pitching": {
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-04T00:00:00"
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    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "669620",
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      "team": "OAK",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
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          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [],
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          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.3333,
              "after": 4.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0538,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.3333,
              "after": 4.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0538,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0538,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
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          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
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            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0538,
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            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "OAK",
        "games": 146,
        "wins": 58,
        "losses": 88,
        "win_pct": 0.3973,
        "runs_scored": 639.0,
        "runs_allowed": 828.0,
        "run_differential": -189.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.2945,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3767,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.6712,
        "offense_index": 0.975,
        "defense_index": 0.7915,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9,
          "run_differential": -1.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.2459
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "TOR",
        "games": 146,
        "wins": 73,
        "losses": 73,
        "win_pct": 0.5,
        "runs_scored": 589.0,
        "runs_allowed": 626.0,
        "run_differential": -37.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2534,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0342,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2877,
        "offense_index": 0.8987,
        "defense_index": 1.047,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.1,
          "run_differential": 21.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.039
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.2849,
        "offense_edge": -0.025,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.1013,
        "defense_strength": -0.2085,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.047,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9864,
        "run_prevention": 1.0189,
        "strikeout": 0.9996
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "669620",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "669620",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 100.0,
            "k_percent": 16.6,
            "bb_percent": 3.4,
            "woba": 0.347,
            "xwoba": 0.303,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 39.7,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.0,
            "hard_hit_percent": 33.6,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.9327,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.817,
            "whiff_percent": 20.5,
            "swing_percent": 52.3
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 117.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6392,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9158,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.002,
            "command_and_miss": -0.2821,
            "regression_edge": 1.2571,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.2286,
            "barrel_edge": 0.2444,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.6143,
            "whiff_edge": -0.6429,
            "bb_edge": 1.45,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": false,
            "pitcher_id": "669620",
            "reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0231,
          "sample_weight": 0.45,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.998,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9745,
          "walk_factor": 0.9478,
          "homer_factor": 0.9771,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.044,
          "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "669620",
            "espn_id": 4179551,
            "player_name": "Brady Basso",
            "team": "ATH",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 273,
            "espn_total_ranked": 859,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 273,
              "gp_value": 22.0,
              "gp_rank": 362,
              "gs_value": 4.0,
              "gs_rank": 234,
              "qs_value": 0.0,
              "qs_rank": 209,
              "era_value": 4.32,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 1.0,
              "w_rank": 408,
              "l_value": 2.0,
              "l_rank": 327,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 248,
              "hld_value": 3.0,
              "hld_rank": 207,
              "ip_value": 33.1,
              "ip_rank": 407,
              "h_value": 42.0,
              "h_rank": 301,
              "er_value": 16.0,
              "er_rank": 395,
              "hr_value": 3.0,
              "hr_rank": 439,
              "bb_value": 5.0,
              "bb_rank": 617,
              "k_value": 24.0,
              "k_rank": 454,
              "k_per_9_value": 6.48,
              "k_per_9_rank": 30,
              "whip_value": 1.41,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.42,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9991,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 0.9991,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9765,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9897,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9885,
            "adjusted": 3
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.1,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 2,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 19,
      "Pitches": 74,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "MISSED_SHUTDOWN",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Model missed a shutdown outing",
      "detail": "The pitcher allowed zero earned runs after a projection of 3 ER."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260909_TOR@OAK.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260909

20260909_WAS@SD

away

Jackson Kent

True

4.2

3.0

-5

8/8

2/1

4/2

Last 10 before this game (5 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 5.5479452054794525,
      "WHIP": 1.6849315068493151,
      "IP": 24.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 5,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.867,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.867,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.2166,
      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0184,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9892,
      "walk_factor": 1.0702,
      "homer_factor": 1.0297,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 18.8,
      "bb_percent": 17.0,
      "woba": 0.327,
      "xwoba": 0.347,
      "barrel_percent": 8.3,
      "hard_hit_percent": 40.3,
      "whiff_percent": 24.0
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 559,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 1.0
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 5.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.5,
        "prior_weight": 0.5
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "800600",
      "report_date": "20260909",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 5,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 24.1,
            "ER": 15.0,
            "R": 16.0,
            "H": 22.0,
            "BB": 19.0,
            "SO": 21.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 112.0,
            "Pitches": 445.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.2,
            "H": 4.4,
            "BB": 3.8,
            "SO": 4.2,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 22.4,
            "Pitches": 89.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.5479,
            "WHIP": 1.6849,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.61644,
            "H_per_IP": 0.90411,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.78082,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.86301,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0411
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 24.1,
            "ER": 15.0,
            "R": 16.0,
            "H": 22.0,
            "BB": 19.0,
            "SO": 21.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 112.0,
            "Pitches": 445.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.2,
            "H": 4.4,
            "BB": 3.8,
            "SO": 4.2,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 22.4,
            "Pitches": 89.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.5479,
            "WHIP": 1.6849,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.61644,
            "H_per_IP": 0.90411,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.78082,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.86301,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0411
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 24.1,
            "ER": 15.0,
            "R": 16.0,
            "H": 22.0,
            "BB": 19.0,
            "SO": 21.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 112.0,
            "Pitches": 445.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.2,
            "H": 4.4,
            "BB": 3.8,
            "SO": 4.2,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 22.4,
            "Pitches": 89.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.5479,
            "WHIP": 1.6849,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.61644,
            "H_per_IP": 0.90411,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.78082,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.86301,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0411
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.79,
        "predicted_H": 4.689,
        "predicted_BB": 2.88,
        "predicted_SO": 4.506,
        "predicted_HR": 0.468,
        "predicted_ERA": 5.022,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.5137
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.5613,
      "form_weight": 0.4388,
      "form_reliability": 0.5,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 5.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.5,
        "prior_weight": 0.5
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.79,
          "final": 3.4691,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 8.0,
          "form": 4.689,
          "final": 6.5473,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.88,
          "final": 2.3861,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 4.506,
          "final": 3.0995,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.468,
          "final": 0.2053,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 5.022,
          "final": 5.022,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.5137,
          "final": 1.5137,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "insufficient_data"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 24.1,
        "ER": 15,
        "H": 22,
        "BB": 19,
        "SO": 21,
        "HR": 1,
        "ERA": 5.547945205479452,
        "WHIP": 1.684931506849315,
        "K9": 7.767123287671232,
        "HR9": 0.3698630136986301,
        "games_pitched": 5,
        "quality_starts": 1,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": true
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 5,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 5,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-04T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.1114872419829946,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 8.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 2.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 5.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.5,
          "prior_weight": 0.5
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.2,
          "predicted_ER": 4,
          "predicted_H": 8,
          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 2,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "800600",
      "player_name": "Jackson Kent",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "WAS",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 8.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 2.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 8.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.2,
            "predicted_SO": 2.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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              "percent_delta": -0.16,
              "direction": "deboost",
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            },
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          ],
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            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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        ],
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            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
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        "win_pct": 0.4558,
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        },
        "available": true,
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      "opponent": {
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        "win_pct": 0.531,
        "runs_scored": 610.0,
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        "run_differential_per_game": 0.069,
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      "player_factors": {
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
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        "pitcher_id": "800600",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "800600",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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          "league_medians": {
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          "components": {
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            "hard_hit_edge": -0.3429,
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            "bb_edge": -1.95,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0644
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "800600",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 81,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 81,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.72623626373627,
              "release_spin_rate": 2092.4313186813188,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
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            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 81,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.72623626373627,
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                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
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                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.7262,
              "release_spin_rate": 2092.4313,
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              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
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              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
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              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.2166,
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          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0184,
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          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_id": "800600",
            "espn_id": 5007807,
            "player_name": "Jackson Kent",
            "team": "WSH",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 559,
            "espn_total_ranked": 859,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 559,
              "gp_value": 5.0,
              "gp_rank": 626,
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              "gs_rank": 220,
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              "qs_rank": 176,
              "era_value": 5.5479,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 1.0,
              "w_rank": 408,
              "l_value": 3.0,
              "l_rank": 238,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 248,
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              "hld_rank": 350,
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              "h_rank": 487,
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              "er_rank": 420,
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              "bb_rank": 312,
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              "k_rank": 476,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.7671237,
              "k_per_9_rank": 26,
              "whip_value": 1.6849,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": -0.06,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
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            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0083,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
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            "factor": 1.0083,
            "adjusted": 5
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          "predicted_BB": {
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            "factor": 1.0316,
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          "predicted_HR": {
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            "factor": 1.0134,
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          "predicted_SO": {
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            "factor": 0.9951,
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
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      "predicted_H": 8,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 24,
      "Pitches": 101,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 5 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260909_WAS@SD.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260909

20260909_WAS@SD

home

Walker Buehler

True

5.1

2.1

-9

2/3

2/2

9/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
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      "IP": 136.1,
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      "role_avg_IP": 4.869,
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      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
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      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0109,
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      "regression_flag": "neutral",
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      "bb_percent": 8.9,
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      "barrel_percent": 8.2,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.6,
      "whiff_percent": 19.9
    },
    "espn_rank": {
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      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
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      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
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        "season": 0.2
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      "effective_weights": {
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      },
      "shrinkage": {
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      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "621111",
      "report_date": "20260909",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 28,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
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          "per_game": {
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          },
          "rates": {
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            "H_per_IP": 0.67857,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.21429,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.78571,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.14286
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        },
        "last_10": {
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          "totals": {
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            "BB": 20.0,
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          },
          "per_game": {
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            "Pitches": 81.9
          },
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            "HR_per_IP": 0.14189
          }
        },
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          "totals": {
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            "R": 70.0,
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            "SO": 117.0,
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            "Pitches": 2294.0
          },
          "per_game": {
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          },
          "rates": {
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            "SO_per_IP": 0.85819,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13203
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
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        "predicted_ER": 2.075,
        "predicted_H": 4.368,
        "predicted_BB": 1.708,
        "predicted_SO": 4.301,
        "predicted_HR": 0.749,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.5195,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1454
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
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      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.414,
      "form_weight": 0.586,
      "form_reliability": 0.8485,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 28.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8485,
        "prior_weight": 0.1515
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      "applied_metrics": {
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          "model": 5.1,
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        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.075,
          "final": 1.6299,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 4.368,
          "final": 3.3876,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.708,
          "final": 1.8289,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 9.0,
          "form": 4.301,
          "final": 6.2464,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
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          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.5195,
          "final": 3.5195,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1454,
          "final": 1.1454,
          "source": "form_only"
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
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        "RBI": 0,
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        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 49.1,
        "ER": 20,
        "H": 42,
        "BB": 20,
        "SO": 37,
        "HR": 7,
        "ERA": 3.648648648648649,
        "WHIP": 1.2567567567567568,
        "K9": 6.750000000000001,
        "HR9": 1.2770270270270272,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-04T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9156224466321327,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
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          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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          "sample_size": 28.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8485,
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "621111",
      "player_name": "Walker Buehler",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "SD",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
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            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 9.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
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        ],
        "summary": {
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            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "SD",
        "games": 145,
        "wins": 77,
        "losses": 68,
        "win_pct": 0.531,
        "runs_scored": 610.0,
        "runs_allowed": 600.0,
        "run_differential": 10.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.069,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.2069,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1379,
        "offense_index": 0.9376,
        "defense_index": 1.0844,
        "current_streak": "W3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.9,
          "run_differential": -2.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0348
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "WAS",
        "games": 147,
        "wins": 67,
        "losses": 80,
        "win_pct": 0.4558,
        "runs_scored": 754.0,
        "runs_allowed": 747.0,
        "run_differential": 7.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0476,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.1293,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.0816,
        "offense_index": 1.1431,
        "defense_index": 0.883,
        "current_streak": "L6",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.3,
          "run_differential": -12.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1017
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.1365,
        "offense_edge": -0.0624,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.1431,
        "defense_strength": 0.0844,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.117,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0023,
        "run_prevention": 1.0076,
        "strikeout": 0.9926
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "621111",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "621111",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 514.0,
            "k_percent": 20.3,
            "bb_percent": 8.9,
            "woba": 0.326,
            "xwoba": 0.314,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 30.8,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.6,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.0109,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.0834,
            "whiff_percent": 19.9,
            "swing_percent": 45.2
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 117.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6392,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9158,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.1257,
            "command_and_miss": -0.3493,
            "regression_edge": 0.3429,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.0857,
            "barrel_edge": -0.2444,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.1,
            "whiff_edge": -0.7286,
            "bb_edge": 0.075,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0102
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "621111",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 87,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 87,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.69389206083017,
              "release_spin_rate": 2201.5990522722864,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 87,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.69389206083017,
                "release_spin_rate": 2201.5990522722864,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.6939,
              "release_spin_rate": 2201.5991,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0102,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.0727,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.1277,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0109,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9611,
          "walk_factor": 0.994,
          "homer_factor": 1.0261,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.012,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "621111",
            "espn_id": 39251,
            "player_name": "Walker Buehler",
            "team": "SD",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 203,
            "espn_total_ranked": 859,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 203,
              "gp_value": 28.0,
              "gp_rank": 257,
              "gs_value": 28.0,
              "gs_rank": 21,
              "qs_value": 6.0,
              "qs_rank": 92,
              "era_value": 4.555,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 8.0,
              "w_rank": 65,
              "l_value": 6.0,
              "l_rank": 111,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 248,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 350,
              "ip_value": 136.1,
              "ip_rank": 66,
              "h_value": 132.0,
              "h_rank": 52,
              "er_value": 69.0,
              "er_rank": 35,
              "hr_value": 18.0,
              "hr_rank": 55,
              "bb_value": 51.0,
              "bb_rank": 35,
              "k_value": 117.0,
              "k_rank": 75,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.7237163,
              "k_per_9_rank": 30,
              "whip_value": 1.3422,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.87,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0109,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0109,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.994,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0261,
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          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9611,
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 9,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 20,
      "Pitches": 93,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least three innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -9 outs from the projected workload."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260909_WAS@SD.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}