Continuous postgame learning

daily_20260907 · dates 20260907 · generated 2026-09-08T09:00:14.776745+00:00

6-5

Winner picks · 54.5%

Comparable starters · 1 identity mismatches

7/21

Starter ER within ±1

11/21

Starter workload within ±1 inning

Slate coverage

Every calendar day in the requested window is listed. Pending means the prediction exists but the official final result has not settled; Missing review artifact identifies a data gap instead of hiding the day.

Date	Games	Settled	Pending	Hits	Misses	Calibration traces	Review status	Pipeline versions
20260907	11	11	0	6	5	11	Available	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Prioritized optimization roadmap

Runtime evidence for the six recommendations. “Observed games” counts artifacts generated with the relevant trace; older artifacts remain honestly blank.

Priority	Change	Status	Observed games	Evidence
P1	Empirical Confidence Blend	Implemented And Applied	11	applied games: 11formula: w_emp=min(0.5,sample_size/200); final=(1-w_emp)raw+w_empempirical_hit_rate
P1	H2H Base Feature	Implemented And Monitored	11	available games: 8
P2	Score Distribution Widening	Implemented Above 1.4X	11	variance multipliers: [1.75]
P2	Simulation Flip Control	Diagnostic Only Without Independent Support	11	simulation flip candidates: 0published flips: 0
P3	Recent Form Quality Blend	Implemented Last 10	11	configured window: 10last 10 games: 11observed windows: [10]
P3	Continuous Calibration Audit	Implemented	11	settled games: 11metric: bucket_calibration_error

Confidence calibration by bucket

bucket_calibration_error = average published confidence − observed hit rate. Positive means overconfident; negative means underconfident. Weighted absolute error: 0.2611.

Bucket	Games	Average confidence	Observed hit rate	Calibration error	Direction
0.50-0.55	7	52.2%	71.4%	-19.2%	underconfident
0.55-0.60	1	58.0%	0.0%	58.0%	overconfident
0.60-0.65	2	62.5%	50.0%	12.5%	overconfident
0.65-0.70	1	70.0%	0.0%	70.0%	overconfident

Where the score pipeline gained or lost quality

Direct comparison against official final runs. Positive deltas mean the stage was worse than historical_ml; this is score error, not a synthetic one-game ERA.

Stage	Games	Team-run MAE	Total-run MAE	Margin MAE	Winner accuracy	Δ team MAE vs base	Δ margin MAE vs base
historical_ml	11	1.5782	2.3421	2.195	54.5%	0.0	0.0
variance_applied	11	1.5909	2.4545	2.0909	45.5%	0.0127	-0.1041
enhanced_prediction	11	1.8182	2.9091	2.0	54.5%	0.24	-0.195
embedded_savant_run_environment	11	1.9091	3.0909	2.1818	54.5%	0.3309	-0.0132
fundamental_edge_target_review	11	1.9091	3.0909	2.1818	54.5%	0.3309	-0.0132
capped_target	11	1.9091	3.0909	2.1818	54.5%	0.3309	-0.0132
simulation_result	11	1.9091	3.0909	2.1818	54.5%	0.3309	-0.0132
published_final	11	1.9091	3.0909	2.1818	54.5%	0.3309	-0.0132

Largest measured regression

{
  "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
  "games": 11,
  "team_run_mae": 1.9091,
  "total_run_mae": 3.0909,
  "margin_mae": 2.1818,
  "winner_hits": 6,
  "winner_accuracy": 0.5455,
  "team_run_mae_delta_vs_historical_ml": 0.3309,
  "margin_mae_delta_vs_historical_ml": -0.0132
}

Automatic questions

Which recorded score stage reinforced losing picks?

partial_attribution sample=5

Largest positive recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. Positive, negative, net, absolute, and unchanged movements are shown separately so opposite games cannot cancel into a misleading zero. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution.

Stage	Positive Toward Pick Run Delta	Negative Away From Pick Run Delta	Net Toward Pick Run Delta	Absolute Run Movement	Games Recorded	Games Supporting Pick	Games Opposing Pick	Games Unchanged	Meaning
enhanced_prediction	6.0	-1.0	5.0	7.0	5	4	1	0	reinforced final pick
embedded_savant_run_environment	1.0	0.0	1.0	1.0	5	1	0	4	reinforced final pick
variance_applied	0.9893	-0.7541	0.2352	1.7434	5	2	3	0	reinforced final pick
fundamental_edge_target_review	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	5	0	0	5	recorded but did not change score margin
capped_target	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	5	0	0	5	recorded but did not change score margin
simulation_result	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	5	0	0	5	recorded but did not change score margin

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "partial_attribution",
  "sample_size": 5,
  "top_stage": "enhanced_prediction",
  "ranking": [
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 6.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -1.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 5.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 7.0,
      "games_recorded": 5,
      "games_supporting_pick": 4,
      "games_opposing_pick": 1,
      "games_unchanged": 0,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 1.0,
      "games_recorded": 5,
      "games_supporting_pick": 1,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 4,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.9893,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -0.7541,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.2352,
      "absolute_run_movement": 1.7434,
      "games_recorded": 5,
      "games_supporting_pick": 2,
      "games_opposing_pick": 3,
      "games_unchanged": 0,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 5,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 5,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 5,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 5,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 5,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 5,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    }
  ],
  "interpretation": "Largest positive recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. Positive, negative, net, absolute, and unchanged movements are shown separately so opposite games cannot cancel into a misleading zero. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution."
}

Which recorded score stage reinforced winning picks?

partial_attribution sample=6

Stage	Positive Toward Pick Run Delta	Negative Away From Pick Run Delta	Net Toward Pick Run Delta	Absolute Run Movement	Games Recorded	Games Supporting Pick	Games Opposing Pick	Games Unchanged	Meaning
enhanced_prediction	3.0	-3.0	0.0	6.0	6	3	2	1	reinforced final pick
variance_applied	2.3763	-0.065	2.3113	2.4413	6	4	2	0	reinforced final pick
embedded_savant_run_environment	1.0	0.0	1.0	1.0	6	1	0	5	reinforced final pick
fundamental_edge_target_review	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	6	0	0	6	recorded but did not change score margin
capped_target	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	6	0	0	6	recorded but did not change score margin
simulation_result	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	6	0	0	6	recorded but did not change score margin

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "partial_attribution",
  "sample_size": 6,
  "top_stage": "enhanced_prediction",
  "ranking": [
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 3.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -3.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 6.0,
      "games_recorded": 6,
      "games_supporting_pick": 3,
      "games_opposing_pick": 2,
      "games_unchanged": 1,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 2.3763,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -0.065,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 2.3113,
      "absolute_run_movement": 2.4413,
      "games_recorded": 6,
      "games_supporting_pick": 4,
      "games_opposing_pick": 2,
      "games_unchanged": 0,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 1.0,
      "games_recorded": 6,
      "games_supporting_pick": 1,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 5,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 6,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 6,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 6,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 6,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 6,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 6,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    }
  ],
  "interpretation": "Largest positive recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. Positive, negative, net, absolute, and unchanged movements are shown separately so opposite games cannot cancel into a misleading zero. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution."
}

Are Overs performing worse than Unders?

not_measurable sample=0

The current artifacts contain predicted totals but no total line, Over/Under selection, price, or settled total bet.

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "The current artifacts contain predicted totals but no total line, Over/Under selection, price, or settled total bet.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "total_line",
    "total_selection",
    "odds",
    "settled_result"
  ]
}

Are hitter props outperforming pitcher props?

not_measurable sample=0

Player stat projections are not stored as priced, selected, and settled prop predictions.

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "Player stat projections are not stored as priced, selected, and settled prop predictions.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "prop_family",
    "prop_line",
    "selection",
    "odds",
    "settled_result"
  ]
}

Which sportsbooks produce better opportunities?

not_measurable sample=0

No settled prediction was linked to a sportsbook snapshot.

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "No settled prediction was linked to a sportsbook snapshot.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "sportsbook",
    "selection_odds",
    "settled_profit"
  ],
  "books": []
}

Which confidence ranges underperform?

insufficient_sample sample=11

Range	Sample Size	Hits	Misses	Accuracy
[0.000, 0.525)	3	2	1	0.6667
[0.525, 0.550)	4	3	1	0.75
[0.550, 0.600)	1	0	1	0.0
[0.600, 1.010)	3	1	2	0.3333

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 11,
  "minimum_recommended_sample": 20,
  "worst_observed_range": {
    "range": "[0.550, 0.600)",
    "sample_size": 1,
    "hits": 0,
    "misses": 1,
    "accuracy": 0.0
  },
  "ranges": [
    {
      "range": "[0.000, 0.525)",
      "sample_size": 3,
      "hits": 2,
      "misses": 1,
      "accuracy": 0.6667
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.525, 0.550)",
      "sample_size": 4,
      "hits": 3,
      "misses": 1,
      "accuracy": 0.75
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.550, 0.600)",
      "sample_size": 1,
      "hits": 0,
      "misses": 1,
      "accuracy": 0.0
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.600, 1.010)",
      "sample_size": 3,
      "hits": 1,
      "misses": 2,
      "accuracy": 0.3333
    }
  ]
}

Which monitored features are drifting?

insufficient_sample sample=11

Three slates are descriptive only and cannot establish statistical feature drift.

Date	Sample Size	Mean Confidence	Mean Predicted Total	Accuracy
20260907	11	0.5624	9.2727	0.5455

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 11,
  "minimum_baseline_sample": 30,
  "minimum_recent_sample": 20,
  "reason": "Three slates are descriptive only and cannot establish statistical feature drift.",
  "daily_monitors": [
    {
      "date": "20260907",
      "sample_size": 11,
      "mean_confidence": 0.5624,
      "mean_predicted_total": 9.2727,
      "accuracy": 0.5455
    }
  ],
  "features_monitored": [
    "confidence",
    "predicted_total",
    "winner_accuracy"
  ]
}

Which model version introduced errors?

insufficient_sample sample=11

Version error claims require at least 30 settled predictions per version.

Pipeline Version	Model Schema Version	Policy Version	Sample Size	Hits	Misses	Accuracy
enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	historical_game_temporal_v11	model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3	11	6	5	0.5455

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 11,
  "minimum_sample_per_version": 30,
  "versions": [
    {
      "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "sample_size": 11,
      "hits": 6,
      "misses": 5,
      "accuracy": 0.5455
    }
  ],
  "reason": "Version error claims require at least 30 settled predictions per version."
}

Game processing context

How each game moved from the historical model through confidence calibration, H2H and recent-form signals, score distribution and simulation policy. Postgame learning is added only after the official result settles.

20260907_ARI@KC

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickKC

Published scoreARI 3 - 5 KC

Final confidence58.0%

Calibrationraw 70.1% → blended 62.7%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.3% · weight 50.0% · n=349

H2H base featureNot available for this matchup · n=0

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.4026

Simulation variance1.75

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.384379104758524-5.080996603961905	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	3-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
Embedded Savant Run Environment	3-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	3-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	3-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	3-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "KC",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.159246,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.579623,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.579623,
    "away_win_probability": 0.420377
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.159246,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "KC wins 5-3",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "ARI 3 - 5 KC",
    "confidence": 0.579623,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.701405,
    "sample_size": 349,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.553,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.627202,
    "published_confidence": 0.579623,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": false,
    "sample_size": 0,
    "home_net_margin": 0.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.7292,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.204,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.4026
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.024796298914922542
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.023975247411384248
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.023912389140402546
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.023120605530909725
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.022829969867408397
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.036093479551014086,
      "1": 0.060224654613772056,
      "2": 0.08922251605273478,
      "3": 0.11736245780474185,
      "4": 0.1370687674624764,
      "5": 0.14213544744288809,
      "6": 0.1308642065231323,
      "7": 0.10697786672137474,
      "8": 0.07764644418985628,
      "9": 0.050038443571601005,
      "10": 0.028631268849733545,
      "11": 0.014545611347400062,
      "12": 0.00656111946086078,
      "13": 0.002627716408413938
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06839984491955205,
      "1": 0.11109171525129279,
      "2": 0.15178357836832293,
      "3": 0.1744554181312584,
      "4": 0.1686788752750634,
      "5": 0.1371998039480956,
      "6": 0.09387778731128459,
      "7": 0.05403669247835809,
      "8": 0.026165632176479856,
      "9": 0.0106583570604965,
      "10": 0.003652295079795883
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.75,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "ARI 3 - 5 KC",
      "winner": "KC"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "ARI 3 - 5 KC",
      "winner": "KC"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0608,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.204,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "KC",
      "model_winner": "KC",
      "simulation_winner": "KC",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 6,
        "published_winner": "KC",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667,
        "draw_majority_team": "KC",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
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      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
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    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
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    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260907_ATL@PHI

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickPHI

Published scoreATL 3 - 4 PHI

Final confidence53.0%

Calibrationraw 53.5% → blended 54.4%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.4% · weight 50.0% · n=334

H2H base featurehome net -3.0 · absolute 3.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.39

Simulation variance1.75

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.6087731717341067-5.641923515322539	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-6	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	3-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	3-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	3-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	3-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	3-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "PHI",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": 0.06,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.53,
    "away_win_probability": 0.47
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.06,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "PHI wins 4-3",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "ATL 3 - 4 PHI",
    "confidence": 0.53,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.534761,
    "sample_size": 334,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5539,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.544331,
    "published_confidence": 0.53,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -3.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 3.0,
    "home_average_margin": -0.6,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0173,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0173,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
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      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.6538,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.1,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.39
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.0340912473441638
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03155680192017258
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.031077585947288856
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.03087801992773876
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.030598623509534753
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.07576952819658792,
      "1": 0.12229745052577544,
      "2": 0.16400206436731454,
      "3": 0.18272177961068692,
      "4": 0.1691376952994651,
      "5": 0.13007672416401203,
      "6": 0.08311279057536743,
      "7": 0.0441209878946299,
      "8": 0.01945950022427745,
      "9": 0.0071306189142583114,
      "10": 0.0021708602276249837
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.07956068927924816,
      "1": 0.12801836622042634,
      "2": 0.1700814539651693,
      "3": 0.1865746240913357,
      "4": 0.1689892687862853,
      "5": 0.12637949461235076,
      "6": 0.07803780365952655,
      "7": 0.03978729348670852,
      "8": 0.016749224089926868,
      "9": 0.005821781809022664
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.75,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "ATL 3 - 4 PHI",
      "winner": "PHI"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "ATL 3 - 4 PHI",
      "winner": "PHI"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.1125,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.03,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "PHI",
      "model_winner": "PHI",
      "simulation_winner": "PHI",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 3,
        "published_winner": "PHI",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667,
        "draw_majority_team": "PHI",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.39,
      "winner": "PHI",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "PHI",
    "display_confidence": 0.53,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5383,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.39,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.1,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.1125,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.6667,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.3333,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.6667,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 4,
        "median": 6,
        "max": 7,
        "range": 3
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
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  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
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    "status": "completed",
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    "evaluation_modes": [
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    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
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      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-07T17:05:00+00:00",
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    "champion_reference": {
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      "home_win_probability": 0.556519,
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            "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
            "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
            "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
            "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
            "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
            "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
            "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
            "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0
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        }
      }
    },
    "diagnostics": {
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        "applied": true,
        "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
        "raw_confidence": 0.534761,
        "sample_size": 334,
        "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5539,
        "empirical_weight": 0.5,
        "blended_confidence": 0.544331
      },
      "confidence_governor": {
        "applied": true,
        "policy": "align_to_calibrated_probability_v2",
        "raw_confidence": 0.53,
        "final_confidence": 0.5566,
        "calibrated_pick_probability": 0.5566,
        "shrinkage_weight": 0.966761,
        "hard_maximum": 0.9,
        "confidence_floor": 0.505,
        "score_gap": 0.1,
        "calibration_sample_size": 334,
        "calibration_empirical_hit_rate": 0.5539,
        "calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.5511,
        "calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.39,
        "reasons": [
          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability"
        ],
        "score_coherence": {
          "policy": "probability_follows_published_score_v1",
          "published_score": {
            "away_runs": 3,
            "home_runs": 4
          },
          "margin": 1,
          "probability_before": 0.556626,
          "margin_implied_home_probability": 0.584361,
          "shrinkage_weight": 0.966761,
          "side_flipped": false,
          "applied": false,
          "magnitude_pull_suppressed": true,
          "probability_after": 0.556626,
          "aligned_pick_probability": 0.556626
        },
        "starter_experience": {
          "applied": false,
          "min_starter_games": 28,
          "shrink_factor": 1.0
        }
      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
        "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
        "available": true,
        "sample_size": 5,
        "sample_weight": 0.0577,
        "home_net_margin": -3.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 3.0,
        "home_average_margin": -0.6,
        "home_run_delta": -0.0173,
        "away_run_delta": 0.0173,
        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": -1.0
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          {
            "home_margin": 2.0
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          {
            "home_margin": -3.0
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          {
            "home_margin": -4.0
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          {
            "home_margin": 3.0
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        ],
        "adaptive_parameters": {
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        }
      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
        "applied": false,
        "home": {
          "team": "PHI",
          "games": 143,
          "wins": 80,
          "losses": 63,
          "win_pct": 0.5594405594405595,
          "runs_scored": 641,
          "runs_allowed": 607,
          "run_differential": 34,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.23776223776223776,
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        },
        "away": {
          "team": "ATL",
          "games": 143,
          "wins": 85,
          "losses": 58,
          "win_pct": 0.5944055944055944,
          "runs_scored": 665,
          "runs_allowed": 545,
          "run_differential": 120,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.8391608391608392,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": -0.6014,
        "win_pct_edge": -0.035,
        "quality_edge": -0.39,
        "season_quality_edge": -0.6538,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": -0.6538,
          "recent_quality_edge": 0.1,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "conflict",
          "blended_quality_edge": -0.39
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 0.0,
        "reason": "season quality edge below action threshold"
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
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            "away_runs": 3,
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          {
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          {
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          {
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        ],
        "home_distribution": {
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          "3": 0.1873719651766629,
          "4": 0.17263202946300527,
          "5": 0.13066792485344406,
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          "8": 0.017421958278639123,
          "9": 0.00600714343091761
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        "away_distribution": {
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          "1": 0.1280431100519033,
          "2": 0.17306878827096334,
          "3": 0.19091957827297834,
          "4": 0.17189029396796918,
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          "6": 0.07574616576638361,
          "7": 0.037073967565355526,
          "8": 0.014809713327013134,
          "9": 0.004828290730246702
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.6087731717341067,
      "home_runs": 5.641923515322539,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260907_CHC@MIL

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickMIL

Published scoreCHC 5 - 7 MIL

Final confidence50.7%

Calibrationraw 51.0% → blended 52.4%

Empirical signalhit rate 53.8% · weight 50.0% · n=398

H2H base featurehome net -7.0 · absolute 7.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.1133

Simulation variance1.75

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.480735857593602-4.525667720881253	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-6	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-7	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-7	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-7	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-7	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIL",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 7,
    "confidence": 0.013636,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.506818,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.506818,
    "away_win_probability": 0.493182
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.013636,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIL wins 7-5",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 7
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 7,
    "predicted_score_text": "CHC 5 - 7 MIL",
    "confidence": 0.5068178499999999,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5101,
    "sample_size": 398,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5377,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.5239,
    "published_confidence": 0.506818,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -7.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 7.0,
    "home_average_margin": -1.4,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0404,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0404,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -14.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.3229,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.276,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.1133
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.01761534432505743
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.017494199794390396
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.017305559625265872
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.017186545550942556
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.016109205541609713
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.0281787986523683,
      "1": 0.04734319217480396,
      "2": 0.0716021688431654,
      "3": 0.09748288950079621,
      "4": 0.11947146421769282,
      "5": 0.13180550681520795,
      "6": 0.13089905185368073,
      "7": 0.11702348370811154,
      "8": 0.09417662460305636,
      "9": 0.06822551071026271,
      "10": 0.04449221694955567,
      "11": 0.02611889945136033,
      "12": 0.013802548350916707,
      "13": 0.006565945252147213,
      "14": 0.0028116989168742047
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.029285152260871552,
      "1": 0.04915350713520482,
      "2": 0.07412061805240833,
      "3": 0.10041556841879996,
      "4": 0.12221951821933288,
      "5": 0.13364649740889992,
      "6": 0.1312961805877228,
      "7": 0.11588416648734888,
      "8": 0.09189113326985521,
      "9": 0.06546370954507161,
      "10": 0.04189914032838918,
      "11": 0.024092790871117323,
      "12": 0.012446481756929407,
      "13": 0.005776750363315139,
      "14": 0.0024087852947330467
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.75,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "score_text": "CHC 5 - 7 MIL",
      "winner": "MIL"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "score_text": "CHC 5 - 7 MIL",
      "winner": "MIL"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0785,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.346,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "winner": "MIL",
      "model_winner": "MIL",
      "simulation_winner": "MIL",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 3,
        "published_winner": "MIL",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667,
        "draw_majority_team": "MIL",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 7
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 7
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.1133,
      "winner": "MIL",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 7,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "MIL",
    "display_confidence": 0.5068,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6042,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5068,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.1133,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.276,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0785,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.6667,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.3333,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 3,
        "median": 9,
        "max": 10,
        "range": 7
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-11bc4bc2dfc7264a",
      "config_hash": "sha256:77b48e255ea4a5c12453f385020a95612bfd01fcf6d9ccc6baa8aeb6377b834b",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-beeea24799c2c165",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-07T06:03:40.049218+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.75,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0
      }
    }
  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
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      "home_runs": 7,
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    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
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  ]
}

20260907_CIN@LAD

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickLAD

Published scoreCIN 5 - 6 LAD

Final confidence53.3%

Calibrationraw 59.3% → blended 56.5%

Empirical signalhit rate 53.8% · weight 50.0% · n=550

H2H base featureNot available for this matchup · n=0

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 1.2463

Simulation variance1.75

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.23859906220732-3.664200065147538	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-6	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, starter_quality_favours_the_other_side, projected_margin_is_one_run, season_quality_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-6	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-6	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-6	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-6	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
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  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "LAD",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "confidence": 0.065122,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.532561,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.532561,
    "away_win_probability": 0.467439
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.065122,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "LAD wins 6-5",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 6
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "predicted_score_text": "CIN 5 - 6 LAD",
    "confidence": 0.5325606185,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.592676,
    "sample_size": 550,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5382,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.565438,
    "published_confidence": 0.532561,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": false,
    "sample_size": 0,
    "home_net_margin": 0.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 1.9755,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.108,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 1.2463
  },
  "score_distribution": {
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      {
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        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.018122102775898048
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        "away_runs": 5,
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        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.016866915771288165
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    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.02451095594575769,
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    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
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      "thresholds": {
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    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
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        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
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      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
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        "home_runs": 6
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          "8": 0.10225744667013714,
          "9": 0.0770818284142318,
          "10": 0.052336296503348985,
          "11": 0.032007214677032235,
          "12": 0.0176313957783286,
          "13": 0.008748214476902692,
          "14": 0.00390972368850354,
          "15": 0.0015738619118297128
        },
        "away_distribution": {
          "0": 0.03326508693854912,
          "1": 0.0572965323024867,
          "2": 0.08712239614422734,
          "3": 0.11694807612316946,
          "4": 0.13858561374492898,
          "5": 0.14497897154581502,
          "6": 0.13389170658694327,
          "7": 0.10916015332556102,
          "8": 0.07856631687803181,
          "9": 0.0499195255360491,
          "10": 0.028000533165156577,
          "11": 0.013865130141683418,
          "12": 0.006060987622535083,
          "13": 0.00233896994486327
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.23859906220732,
      "home_runs": 3.664200065147538,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, starter_quality_favours_the_other_side, projected_margin_is_one_run, season_quality_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260907_CLE@BAL

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickBAL

Published scoreCLE 3 - 4 BAL

Final confidence50.8%

Calibrationraw 51.0% → blended 53.0%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.9% · weight 50.0% · n=477

H2H base featurehome net -6.0 · absolute 6.0 · n=4

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.1158

Simulation variance1.75

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.210411898746637-4.242162013408794	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	3-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	3-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	3-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	3-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	3-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "BAL",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": 0.01553,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.507765,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.507765,
    "away_win_probability": 0.492235
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.01553,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "BAL wins 4-3 (Extra Innings - 10)",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "CLE 3 - 4 BAL",
    "confidence": 0.50776543,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5101,
    "sample_size": 477,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5493,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.5297,
    "published_confidence": 0.507765,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 4,
    "sample_weight": 0.05,
    "home_net_margin": -6.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 6.0,
    "home_average_margin": -1.5,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0375,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0375,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.1458,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.06,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.1158
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.0282262521866831
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02809506682398304
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02789314878419516
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.027763511565059573
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.024178570472246353
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06178393357798275,
      "1": 0.10089746168895171,
      "2": 0.14013859117656097,
      "3": 0.1655419529651718,
      "4": 0.1663149242941908,
      "5": 0.14211083499014004,
      "6": 0.10327518478719701,
      "7": 0.06383187343967343,
      "8": 0.03355459659939616,
      "9": 0.015001658461214066,
      "10": 0.00570426044486288,
      "11": 0.001844727574658231
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06470225090796573,
      "1": 0.10541405728406923,
      "2": 0.14537823694930355,
      "3": 0.16971569031745043,
      "4": 0.167712842984888,
      "5": 0.14029182850878563,
      "6": 0.09933908585119162,
      "7": 0.05954285729628326,
      "8": 0.030210708634162683,
      "9": 0.012975194661121122,
      "10": 0.004717246604778899
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.75,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "CLE 3 - 4 BAL",
      "winner": "BAL"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "CLE 3 - 4 BAL",
      "winner": "BAL"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0245,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.235,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "BAL",
      "model_winner": "BAL",
      "simulation_winner": "BAL",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 6,
        "published_winner": "BAL",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5,
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.1158,
      "winner": "BAL",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "BAL",
    "display_confidence": 0.5078,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.518,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5078,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.1158,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.06,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0245,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.5,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.8333,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 2,
        "median": 5,
        "max": 8,
        "range": 6
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
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      "parent_config_id": "candidate-beeea24799c2c165",
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        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
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        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
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        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
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        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
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        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
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        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
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        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
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        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0
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  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
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      "parent_config_hash": "sha256:c5dd20fd32e9ebe45f16addb575ad4faadd7a5edc0d355378189ce15bb8142a6"
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    "changes": [
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        "risk_tier": "low",
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    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
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    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
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      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-07T17:35:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.510748,
      "confidence": 0.510748,
      "predicted_score": {
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        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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        }
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    },
    "candidate_prediction": {
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      "home_win_probability": 0.510857,
      "confidence": 0.510857,
      "predicted_score": {
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        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
          "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
          "config_id": "candidate-beeea24799c2c165",
          "config_hash": "sha256:ed8620a946c5b9ff74c187780441f57f9b765a55832e8c9d3f218ec7008f1d67",
          "parent_config_id": "candidate-31a39524087cf556-registry-c5dd20fd32e9",
          "created_at_utc": "2026-09-04T06:03:08.215029+00:00",
          "parameters": {
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            "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
            "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
            "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
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            "player.model_weight": 0.5,
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            "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
            "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
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            "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
            "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
            "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
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            "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
            "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
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            "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
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            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
            "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
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            "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
            "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0
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    },
    "diagnostics": {
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        "applied": true,
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        "raw_confidence": 0.5101,
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      "confidence_governor": {
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        "calibration_sample_size": 477,
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        "calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.5475,
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          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability"
        ],
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          },
          "margin": 1,
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        "starter_experience": {
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          "min_starter_games": 26,
          "shrink_factor": 1.0
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      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
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        "sample_weight": 0.05,
        "home_net_margin": -6.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 6.0,
        "home_average_margin": -1.5,
        "home_run_delta": -0.0375,
        "away_run_delta": 0.0375,
        "evidence": [
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            "home_margin": -4.0
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            "home_margin": -2.0
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          {
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          {
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      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
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        "home": {
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          "losses": 75,
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          "runs_scored": 641,
          "runs_allowed": 670,
          "run_differential": -29,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.2013888888888889,
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        },
        "away": {
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          "run_differential": -14,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.09722222222222222,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": -0.1042,
        "win_pct_edge": -0.0278,
        "quality_edge": -0.1158,
        "season_quality_edge": -0.1458,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
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          "season_weight": 0.65,
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          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": -0.1158
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 0.0,
        "reason": "season quality edge below action threshold"
      },
      "score_distribution": {
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        "home_distribution": {
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        "away_distribution": {
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          "5": 0.1418581946140145,
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          "7": 0.05716023221732298,
          "8": 0.027833416137140195,
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          "10": 0.0038834442059624183
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        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.210411898746637,
      "home_runs": 4.242162013408794,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260907_LAA@BOS

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickBOS

Published scoreLAA 3 - 5 BOS

Final confidence62.3%

Calibrationraw 77.6% → blended 66.7%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.8% · weight 50.0% · n=269

H2H base featurehome net 12.0 · absolute 12.0 · n=3

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 1.0127

Simulation variance1.75

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.256027074589859-4.907730266989098	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	3-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	3-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	3-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	3-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	3-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "BOS",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.2463,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.62315,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.62315,
    "away_win_probability": 0.37685
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.2463,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "BOS wins 5-3",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "LAA 3 - 5 BOS",
    "confidence": 0.6231496,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.775922,
    "sample_size": 269,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5576,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.666761,
    "published_confidence": 0.62315,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 3,
    "sample_weight": 0.0409,
    "home_net_margin": 12.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 12.0,
    "home_average_margin": 4.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0818,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0818,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 7.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 1.3922,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.308,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 1.0127
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02848451497061568
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.028063643605635177
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.02774660131814158
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.02733663295524747
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.0255482826090971
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.03887396343934308,
      "1": 0.0647099631449925,
      "2": 0.09518567489107813,
      "3": 0.123725764215555,
      "4": 0.14211398149999196,
      "5": 0.14424526944738827,
      "6": 0.1293762211738156,
      "7": 0.10254050580125491,
      "8": 0.07181655344967486,
      "9": 0.04444693041591734,
      "10": 0.024307880787255397,
      "11": 0.011747366892563393,
      "12": 0.005016745598100301,
      "13": 0.0018931792430691412
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.09488270477310329,
      "1": 0.150661221316622,
      "2": 0.19235709721670852,
      "3": 0.1974727842357774,
      "4": 0.16300412244320447,
      "5": 0.1081887817174226,
      "6": 0.05773752674741574,
      "7": 0.02477572810394622,
      "8": 0.008548442206900129,
      "9": 0.0023715912388995643
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.75,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "LAA 3 - 5 BOS",
      "winner": "BOS"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "LAA 3 - 5 BOS",
      "winner": "BOS"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0198,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.658,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "BOS",
      "model_winner": "BOS",
      "simulation_winner": "BOS",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 3,
        "published_winner": "BOS",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667,
        "draw_majority_team": "BOS",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.0127,
      "winner": "BOS",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "BOS",
    "display_confidence": 0.6231,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6387,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.6231,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.0127,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.308,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0198,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.6667,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.3333,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 5,
        "median": 9,
        "max": 9,
        "range": 4
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-11bc4bc2dfc7264a",
      "config_hash": "sha256:77b48e255ea4a5c12453f385020a95612bfd01fcf6d9ccc6baa8aeb6377b834b",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-beeea24799c2c165",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-07T06:03:40.049218+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.75,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
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    },
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      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
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    },
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      "away_runs": 3,
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    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
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      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
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    {
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  ]
}

20260907_MIN@DET

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickMIN

Published scoreMIN 5 - 4 DET

Final confidence53.0%

Calibrationraw 62.4% → blended 58.2%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.1% · weight 50.0% · n=516

H2H base featurehome net -9.0 · absolute 9.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.257

Simulation variance1.75

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.384264863525414-4.3812499123067745	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIN",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": -0.06,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.47,
    "away_win_probability": 0.53
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.06,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIN wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "MIN 5 - 4 DET",
    "confidence": 0.53,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.624052,
    "sample_size": 516,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5407,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.582376,
    "published_confidence": 0.53,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -9.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 9.0,
    "home_average_margin": -1.8,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0519,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0519,
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            "home_margin": -13.0
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          {
            "home_margin": -10.0
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          {
            "home_margin": 11.0
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          {
            "home_margin": -2.0
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        ],
        "adaptive_parameters": {
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          "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
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        }
      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
        "applied": false,
        "home": {
          "team": "DET",
          "games": 143,
          "wins": 65,
          "losses": 78,
          "win_pct": 0.45454545454545453,
          "runs_scored": 627,
          "runs_allowed": 577,
          "run_differential": 50,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.34965034965034963,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "MIN",
          "games": 143,
          "wins": 68,
          "losses": 75,
          "win_pct": 0.4755244755244755,
          "runs_scored": 666,
          "runs_allowed": 714,
          "run_differential": -48,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.3356643356643357,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 0.6853,
        "win_pct_edge": -0.021,
        "quality_edge": 0.257,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.6538,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": 0.6538,
          "recent_quality_edge": -0.48,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "conflict",
          "blended_quality_edge": 0.257
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 0.0,
        "reason": "season quality edge below action threshold"
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 5,
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          {
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        ],
        "home_distribution": {
          "0": 0.04533029508549479,
          "1": 0.07723306871565984,
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          "5": 0.15051564030038486,
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          "7": 0.08728556269770775,
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        "away_distribution": {
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          "12": 0.007145039000106677,
          "13": 0.0028613500193347186
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        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.384264863525414,
      "home_runs": 4.3812499123067745,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260907_NYM@MIA

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickMIA

Published scoreNYM 4 - 5 MIA

Final confidence52.1%

Calibrationraw 46.2% → blended 51.2%

Empirical signalhit rate 56.2% · weight 50.0% · n=336

H2H base featurehome net -2.0 · absolute 2.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.291

Simulation variance1.75

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.495955470301921-4.81010339358365	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	3-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIA",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.041542,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.520771,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.520771,
    "away_win_probability": 0.479229
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.041542,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIA wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "NYM 4 - 5 MIA",
    "confidence": 0.5207706,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.461518,
    "sample_size": 336,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5625,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.512009,
    "published_confidence": 0.520771,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -2.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 2.0,
    "home_average_margin": -0.4,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0115,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0115,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -9.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.508,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.112,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.291
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.025644923384405213
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02438330309633987
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.024020053169706564
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.023694401979561134
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.02324153082725313
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05140482370348403,
      "1": 0.08467995171778815,
      "2": 0.1207186121833006,
      "3": 0.1489308852341302,
      "4": 0.15900552402680518,
      "5": 0.14691175897811204,
      "6": 0.11746752254510605,
      "7": 0.08128229636930945,
      "8": 0.0486733260819321,
      "9": 0.025223362955271156,
      "10": 0.011311803661439841,
      "11": 0.0043901325433212575
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.0539610572326909,
      "1": 0.08870047652598081,
      "2": 0.1256394166395915,
      "3": 0.1533487798337706,
      "4": 0.16128322296577563,
      "5": 0.14616807164092657,
      "6": 0.11414852307648647,
      "7": 0.07681438028970734,
      "8": 0.044541949469848616,
      "9": 0.02225616671678045,
      "10": 0.009582657501715166,
      "11": 0.00355529810672585
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    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.75,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "NYM 4 - 5 MIA",
      "winner": "MIA"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "NYM 4 - 5 MIA",
      "winner": "MIA"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0386,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.042,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "MIA",
      "model_winner": "MIA",
      "simulation_winner": "MIA",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 3,
        "published_winner": "MIA",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667,
        "draw_majority_team": "MIA",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
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        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.291,
      "winner": "MIA",
      "score_reviewed": {
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        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "MIA",
    "display_confidence": 0.5208,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.59,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5208,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.291,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.112,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0386,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.6667,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.3333,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 6,
        "median": 8,
        "max": 9,
        "range": 3
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
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      "parent_config_id": "candidate-beeea24799c2c165",
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      "parameters": {
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        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
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        "recent.window_games": 10,
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        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
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        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
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        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
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        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
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        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0
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  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
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      "parent_config_hash": "sha256:c5dd20fd32e9ebe45f16addb575ad4faadd7a5edc0d355378189ce15bb8142a6"
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    "changes": [
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        "risk_tier": "low",
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    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
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    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-07T16:36:03.281597+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-07T17:10:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.524436,
      "confidence": 0.524436,
      "predicted_score": {
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      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
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        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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          "parameters": {
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            "confidence.base_cap": 0.58,
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            "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
            "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
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    "candidate_prediction": {
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        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
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        "starter_experience": {
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      "h2h_base_feature": {
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        "home": {
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          "games": 144,
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          "losses": 72,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "runs_scored": 631,
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          "run_differential_per_game": 0.10416666666666667,
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        "away": {
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        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 0.4398,
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        "quality_edge": 0.291,
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        "recent_quality_blend": {
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          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "conflict",
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      "score_distribution": {
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      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
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      "stage": "historical_ml",
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    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260907_STL@SF

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickSTL

Published scoreSTL 7 - 5 SF

Final confidence62.7%

Calibrationraw 68.5% → blended 61.3%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.0% · weight 50.0% · n=563

H2H base featureNot available for this matchup · n=0

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.5161

Simulation variance1.75

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.260435939235608-4.775023119703036	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	7-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
Embedded Savant Run Environment	7-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	7-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	7-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	7-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "STL",
    "away_runs": 7,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": -0.253528,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.626764,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.373236,
    "away_win_probability": 0.626764
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.253528,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "STL wins 7-5",
    "away_runs": 7,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 7,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "STL 7 - 5 SF",
    "confidence": 0.626764,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.685068,
    "sample_size": 563,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.54,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.612534,
    "published_confidence": 0.626764,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": false,
    "sample_size": 0,
    "home_net_margin": 0.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.5938,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.372,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.5161
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 7,
        "probability": 0.016519689084748566
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.016356539945526997
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 7,
        "probability": 0.015639194152050426
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 7,
        "probability": 0.01557194506866104
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.015484740817551433
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.033170191698412704,
      "1": 0.05548722487586384,
      "2": 0.0828307366312896,
      "3": 0.11034268266669738,
      "4": 0.13117438866296743,
      "5": 0.13915796048852336,
      "6": 0.13174087906367535,
      "7": 0.11129779356902565,
      "8": 0.08390851752658857,
      "9": 0.05645196158689171,
      "10": 0.033892649646278195,
      "11": 0.018158731326664034,
      "12": 0.008681983964081097,
      "13": 0.0037042982930410033
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.018049799341649367,
      "1": 0.030611341182716537,
      "2": 0.047618503853986034,
      "3": 0.0679442239626119,
      "4": 0.08892272187980846,
      "5": 0.10674716784686576,
      "6": 0.11753937674931615,
      "7": 0.11871177923817718,
      "8": 0.10997340029884758,
      "9": 0.09344690049138706,
      "10": 0.0728325569564927,
      "11": 0.052067847213663435,
      "12": 0.03414263969129913,
      "13": 0.020535627435899866,
      "14": 0.011329278862417488,
      "15": 0.005732973911259181,
      "16": 0.0026609767050578344,
      "17": 0.0011328843785441275
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.75,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "STL 7 - 5 SF",
      "winner": "STL"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "STL 7 - 5 SF",
      "winner": "STL"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.1027,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.372,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "STL",
      "model_winner": "STL",
      "simulation_winner": "STL",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 1,
        "published_winner": "STL",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "STL",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 7,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 7,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.5161,
      "winner": "STL",
      "score_reviewed": {
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        "home_runs": 5,
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}

20260907_TOR@OAK

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickTOR

Published scoreTOR 6 - 2 OAK

Final confidence70.0%

Calibrationraw 85.9% → blended 71.0%

Empirical signalhit rate 56.1% · weight 50.0% · n=114

H2H base featurehome net -5.0 · absolute 5.0 · n=3

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.9732

Simulation variance1.75

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	5.903081777352334-3.6374045653540557	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	6-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	6-3	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
Embedded Savant Run Environment	6-2	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	6-2	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	6-2	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	6-2	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

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    "pick_probability": 0.699558,
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    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
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    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
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    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
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    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
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            "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
            "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
            "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
            "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
            "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "diagnostics": {
      "confidence_calibration": {
        "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
        "applied": true,
        "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
        "raw_confidence": 0.85877,
        "sample_size": 114,
        "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5614,
        "empirical_weight": 0.5,
        "blended_confidence": 0.710085
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      "confidence_governor": {
        "applied": true,
        "policy": "align_to_calibrated_probability_v2",
        "raw_confidence": 0.710085,
        "final_confidence": 0.7049,
        "calibrated_pick_probability": 0.7049,
        "shrinkage_weight": 0.911364,
        "hard_maximum": 0.9,
        "confidence_floor": 0.505,
        "score_gap": 2.8024,
        "calibration_sample_size": 114,
        "calibration_empirical_hit_rate": 0.5614,
        "calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.553,
        "calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.9732,
        "reasons": [
          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability"
        ],
        "score_coherence": {
          "policy": "probability_follows_published_score_v1",
          "published_score": {
            "away_runs": 6,
            "home_runs": 3
          },
          "margin": -3,
          "probability_before": 0.295149,
          "margin_implied_home_probability": 0.26135,
          "shrinkage_weight": 0.911364,
          "side_flipped": false,
          "applied": false,
          "magnitude_pull_suppressed": true,
          "probability_after": 0.295149,
          "aligned_pick_probability": 0.704851
        },
        "starter_experience": {
          "applied": false,
          "min_starter_games": 23,
          "shrink_factor": 1.0
        }
      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
        "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
        "available": true,
        "sample_size": 3,
        "sample_weight": 0.0409,
        "home_net_margin": -5.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 5.0,
        "home_average_margin": -1.667,
        "home_run_delta": -0.0341,
        "away_run_delta": 0.0341,
        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": -3.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": -1.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": -1.0
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        ],
        "adaptive_parameters": {
          "h2h.history_limit": 5,
          "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
          "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
          "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
        }
      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "home": {
          "team": "OAK",
          "games": 144,
          "wins": 57,
          "losses": 87,
          "win_pct": 0.3958333333333333,
          "runs_scored": 631,
          "runs_allowed": 819,
          "run_differential": -188,
          "run_differential_per_game": -1.3055555555555556,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "TOR",
          "games": 144,
          "wins": 72,
          "losses": 72,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "runs_scored": 580,
          "runs_allowed": 618,
          "run_differential": -38,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.2638888888888889,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": -1.0417,
        "win_pct_edge": -0.1042,
        "quality_edge": -0.9732,
        "season_quality_edge": -1.1979,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": -1.1979,
          "recent_quality_edge": -0.556,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": -0.9732
        },
        "margin_adjustment": -0.4087,
        "reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
          "adjustment": -0.4087,
          "cap": 1.4,
          "scale": 0.42,
          "quality_edge": -0.9732,
          "season_quality_edge": -1.1979,
          "recent_alignment": "aligned",
          "large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": false,
          "method": "standard_bounded_season_recent_adjustment"
        },
        "adjusted_score": {
          "away_runs": 6.707,
          "home_runs": 1.573,
          "home_win_probability": 0.08
        }
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
            "home_runs": 3,
            "away_runs": 6,
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          {
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            "probability": 0.02454468054373202
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          {
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            "away_runs": 7,
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          {
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          {
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        ],
        "home_distribution": {
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          "6": 0.07471160299435636,
          "7": 0.036268101725859155,
          "8": 0.014350971007725904,
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        "away_distribution": {
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          "1": 0.04004088776250402,
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          "3": 0.08838165861909893,
          "4": 0.11215837497012952,
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          "6": 0.13178060643533676,
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          "11": 0.031347643913462044,
          "12": 0.017161540017947983,
          "13": 0.008458002980283043,
          "14": 0.0037526635963786585,
          "15": 0.0014988965455054425
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 5.903081777352334,
      "home_runs": 3.6374045653540557,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260907_WAS@SD

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickSD

Published scoreWAS 5 - 6 SD

Final confidence53.0%

Calibrationraw 48.5% → blended 52.0%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.6% · weight 50.0% · n=304

H2H base featurehome net -5.0 · absolute 5.0 · n=3

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.0369

Simulation variance1.75

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.153441881923439-5.65493665893173	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	3-6	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-6	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-6	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-6	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-6	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-6	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "SD",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "confidence": 0.059308,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.529654,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.529654,
    "away_win_probability": 0.470346
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.059308,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "SD wins 6-5",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 6
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "predicted_score_text": "WAS 5 - 6 SD",
    "confidence": 0.52965429,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.484966,
    "sample_size": 304,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5559,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.520433,
    "published_confidence": 0.529654,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 3,
    "sample_weight": 0.0409,
    "home_net_margin": -5.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 5.0,
    "home_average_margin": -1.667,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0341,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0341,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.0875,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.268,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.0369
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.02057457368927294
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.020212009890828057
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.019977521181426802
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.01962547860341569
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.01878510555160399
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.03697977085944832,
      "1": 0.061656556465363714,
      "2": 0.0911355595426761,
      "3": 0.11942355964300466,
      "4": 0.1387348946009802,
      "5": 0.14288115559077177,
      "6": 0.13045410464602675,
      "7": 0.10559274785071389,
      "8": 0.07577116835648832,
      "9": 0.04820226267405913,
      "10": 0.027184691888482302,
      "11": 0.013591736739017044,
      "12": 0.006024472715986407,
      "13": 0.0023673184269814482
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.038496625245047,
      "1": 0.06410244709357427,
      "2": 0.09438302813147567,
      "3": 0.12287981625281505,
      "4": 0.14146029129773838,
      "5": 0.1439978113572997,
      "6": 0.12961181219322443,
      "7": 0.10315745588404844,
      "8": 0.07259789213463376,
      "9": 0.04517672537978854,
      "10": 0.02485838060786859,
      "11": 0.012094788180639585,
      "12": 0.005203445963228697,
      "13": 0.00197948027861759
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.75,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "WAS 5 - 6 SD",
      "winner": "SD"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "WAS 5 - 6 SD",
      "winner": "SD"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0934,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.3847,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "winner": "SD",
      "model_winner": "SD",
      "simulation_winner": "SD",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "SD",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "SD",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 6
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 6
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.0369,
      "winner": "SD",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 6,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "SD",
    "display_confidence": 0.5297,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5613,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5297,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.0369,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.268,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0934,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 9,
        "median": 10,
        "max": 10,
        "range": 1
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-11bc4bc2dfc7264a",
      "config_hash": "sha256:77b48e255ea4a5c12453f385020a95612bfd01fcf6d9ccc6baa8aeb6377b834b",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-beeea24799c2c165",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-07T06:03:40.049218+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.75,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0
      }
    }
  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
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    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
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        }
      }
    },
    "candidate_prediction": {
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      },
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        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
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        "score_coherence": {
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        "starter_experience": {
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      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
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        "available": true,
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        "home_average_margin": -1.667,
        "home_run_delta": -0.0341,
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        ],
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      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
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          "run_differential_per_game": 0.055944055944055944,
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        "away": {
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        "run_differential_edge_per_game": -0.0061,
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    {
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    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
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      "home_runs": 6,
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  ]
}

Every reviewed game

Date	Game	Pick	Final confidence	Raw confidence	Empirical hit rate	Empirical weight	Pred A-H	Actual A-H	Result	Largest recorded movement	Pipeline	Roadmap signals
20260907	20260907_ARI@KC	KC	58.0%	70.1%	55.3%	50.0%	3.0-5.0	5-4	miss	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.701405, "sample_size": 349, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.553, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.627202, "published_confidence": 0.579623, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": false, "sample_size": 0, "home_net_margin": 0.0, "home_average_margin": 0.0, "home_run_delta": 0.0, "away_run_delta": 0.0 }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.7292, "recent_quality_edge": 0.204, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": -0.4026 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.024796298914922542 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.023975247411384248 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.023912389140402546 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.023120605530909725 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.022829969867408397 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.036093479551014086, "1": 0.060224654613772056, "2": 0.08922251605273478, "3": 0.11736245780474185, "4": 0.1370687674624764, "5": 0.14213544744288809, "6": 0.1308642065231323, "7": 0.10697786672137474, "8": 0.07764644418985628, "9": 0.050038443571601005, "10": 0.028631268849733545, "11": 0.014545611347400062, "12": 0.00656111946086078, "13": 0.002627716408413938 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.06839984491955205, "1": 0.11109171525129279, "2": 0.15178357836832293, "3": 0.1744554181312584, "4": 0.1686788752750634, "5": 0.1371998039480956, "6": 0.09387778731128459, "7": 0.05403669247835809, "8": 0.026165632176479856, "9": 0.0106583570604965, "10": 0.003652295079795883 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.75, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "ARI 3 - 5 KC", "winner": "KC" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "ARI 3 - 5 KC", "winner": "KC" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0608, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.204, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "KC", "model_winner": "KC", "simulation_winner": "KC", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "KC", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667, "draw_majority_team": "KC", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": -0.4026, "winner": "KC", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260907	20260907_ATL@PHI	PHI	53.0%	53.5%	55.4%	50.0%	3.0-4.0	0-1	hit	Enhanced Prediction (-1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.534761, "sample_size": 334, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5539, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.544331, "published_confidence": 0.53, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -3.0, "absolute_net_margin": 3.0, "home_average_margin": -0.6, "home_run_delta": -0.0173, "away_run_delta": 0.0173, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": -4.0 }, { "home_margin": 3.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.6538, "recent_quality_edge": 0.1, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": -0.39 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.0340912473441638 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.03155680192017258 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.031077585947288856 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.03087801992773876 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.030598623509534753 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.07576952819658792, "1": 0.12229745052577544, "2": 0.16400206436731454, "3": 0.18272177961068692, "4": 0.1691376952994651, "5": 0.13007672416401203, "6": 0.08311279057536743, "7": 0.0441209878946299, "8": 0.01945950022427745, "9": 0.0071306189142583114, "10": 0.0021708602276249837 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.07956068927924816, "1": 0.12801836622042634, "2": 0.1700814539651693, "3": 0.1865746240913357, "4": 0.1689892687862853, "5": 0.12637949461235076, "6": 0.07803780365952655, "7": 0.03978729348670852, "8": 0.016749224089926868, "9": 0.005821781809022664 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.75, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "ATL 3 - 4 PHI", "winner": "PHI" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "ATL 3 - 4 PHI", "winner": "PHI" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.1125, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.03, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "PHI", "model_winner": "PHI", "simulation_winner": "PHI", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "PHI", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667, "draw_majority_team": "PHI", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": -0.39, "winner": "PHI", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260907	20260907_CHC@MIL	MIL	50.7%	51.0%	53.8%	50.0%	5.0-7.0	3-4	hit	Embedded Savant Run Environment (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.5101, "sample_size": 398, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5377, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.5239, "published_confidence": 0.506818, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -7.0, "absolute_net_margin": 7.0, "home_average_margin": -1.4, "home_run_delta": -0.0404, "away_run_delta": 0.0404, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": 4.0 }, { "home_margin": 5.0 }, { "home_margin": -14.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.3229, "recent_quality_edge": -0.276, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.1133 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01761534432505743 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.017494199794390396 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.017305559625265872 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.017186545550942556 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.016109205541609713 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.0281787986523683, "1": 0.04734319217480396, "2": 0.0716021688431654, "3": 0.09748288950079621, "4": 0.11947146421769282, "5": 0.13180550681520795, "6": 0.13089905185368073, "7": 0.11702348370811154, "8": 0.09417662460305636, "9": 0.06822551071026271, "10": 0.04449221694955567, "11": 0.02611889945136033, "12": 0.013802548350916707, "13": 0.006565945252147213, "14": 0.0028116989168742047 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.029285152260871552, "1": 0.04915350713520482, "2": 0.07412061805240833, "3": 0.10041556841879996, "4": 0.12221951821933288, "5": 0.13364649740889992, "6": 0.1312961805877228, "7": 0.11588416648734888, "8": 0.09189113326985521, "9": 0.06546370954507161, "10": 0.04189914032838918, "11": 0.024092790871117323, "12": 0.012446481756929407, "13": 0.005776750363315139, "14": 0.0024087852947330467 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.75, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 7, "score_text": "CHC 5 - 7 MIL", "winner": "MIL" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 7, "score_text": "CHC 5 - 7 MIL", "winner": "MIL" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0785, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.346, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 7, "winner": "MIL", "model_winner": "MIL", "simulation_winner": "MIL", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "MIL", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667, "draw_majority_team": "MIL", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 7 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 7 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": 0.1133, "winner": "MIL", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 7, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260907	20260907_CIN@LAD	LAD	53.3%	59.3%	53.8%	50.0%	5.0-6.0	3-6	hit	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.592676, "sample_size": 550, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5382, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.565438, "published_confidence": 0.532561, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": false, "sample_size": 0, "home_net_margin": 0.0, "home_average_margin": 0.0, "home_run_delta": 0.0, "away_run_delta": 0.0 }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 1.9755, "recent_quality_edge": -0.108, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 1.2463 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.018122102775898048 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.0175996200395061 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.017367646598822693 }, { "home_runs": 7, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.016908396978817433 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.016866915771288165 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.02451095594575769, "1": 0.04131643102678156, "2": 0.0631064716508667, "3": 0.08734007246828296, "4": 0.10953218374556704, "5": 0.12446822437534345, "6": 0.1281633324696942, "7": 0.11957974912314574, "8": 0.10109741102471125, "9": 0.07744813774001598, "10": 0.053761388211292546, "11": 0.03381571065335981, "12": 0.01927325699890065, "13": 0.009953601644025405, "14": 0.004657940625986459, "15": 0.0019751322962687176 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.0352907435681597, "1": 0.05892597657736703, "2": 0.08747987979518458, "3": 0.1154688858541653, "4": 0.13551182123740024, "5": 0.14139849851503544, "6": 0.13118005916300982, "7": 0.10820473257893103, "8": 0.0793560602711087, "9": 0.05174511424289078, "10": 0.02999949959788974, "11": 0.015463723655621807, "12": 0.007087116280569878, "13": 0.0028878886626659216 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.75, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "CIN 5 - 6 LAD", "winner": "LAD" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "CIN 5 - 6 LAD", "winner": "LAD" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.076, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.108, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "winner": "LAD", "model_winner": "LAD", "simulation_winner": "LAD", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 1, "published_winner": "LAD", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "LAD", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 1.2463, "winner": "LAD", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260907	20260907_CLE@BAL	BAL	50.8%	51.0%	54.9%	50.0%	3.0-4.0	4-6	hit	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.5101, "sample_size": 477, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5493, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.5297, "published_confidence": 0.507765, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 4, "sample_weight": 0.05, "home_net_margin": -6.0, "absolute_net_margin": 6.0, "home_average_margin": -1.5, "home_run_delta": -0.0375, "away_run_delta": 0.0375, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -4.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.1458, "recent_quality_edge": -0.06, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.1158 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.0282262521866831 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.02809506682398304 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02789314878419516 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.027763511565059573 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.024178570472246353 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.06178393357798275, "1": 0.10089746168895171, "2": 0.14013859117656097, "3": 0.1655419529651718, "4": 0.1663149242941908, "5": 0.14211083499014004, "6": 0.10327518478719701, "7": 0.06383187343967343, "8": 0.03355459659939616, "9": 0.015001658461214066, "10": 0.00570426044486288, "11": 0.001844727574658231 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.06470225090796573, "1": 0.10541405728406923, "2": 0.14537823694930355, "3": 0.16971569031745043, "4": 0.167712842984888, "5": 0.14029182850878563, "6": 0.09933908585119162, "7": 0.05954285729628326, "8": 0.030210708634162683, "9": 0.012975194661121122, "10": 0.004717246604778899 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.75, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "CLE 3 - 4 BAL", "winner": "BAL" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "CLE 3 - 4 BAL", "winner": "BAL" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0245, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.235, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "BAL", "model_winner": "BAL", "simulation_winner": "BAL", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "BAL", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5, "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": -0.1158, "winner": "BAL", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260907	20260907_LAA@BOS	BOS	62.3%	77.6%	55.8%	50.0%	3.0-5.0	2-5	hit	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.775922, "sample_size": 269, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5576, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.666761, "published_confidence": 0.62315, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 3, "sample_weight": 0.0409, "home_net_margin": 12.0, "absolute_net_margin": 12.0, "home_average_margin": 4.0, "home_run_delta": 0.0818, "away_run_delta": -0.0818, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": 7.0 }, { "home_margin": 3.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 1.3922, "recent_quality_edge": 0.308, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 1.0127 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.02848451497061568 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.028063643605635177 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.02774660131814158 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.02733663295524747 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.0255482826090971 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.03887396343934308, "1": 0.0647099631449925, "2": 0.09518567489107813, "3": 0.123725764215555, "4": 0.14211398149999196, "5": 0.14424526944738827, "6": 0.1293762211738156, "7": 0.10254050580125491, "8": 0.07181655344967486, "9": 0.04444693041591734, "10": 0.024307880787255397, "11": 0.011747366892563393, "12": 0.005016745598100301, "13": 0.0018931792430691412 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.09488270477310329, "1": 0.150661221316622, "2": 0.19235709721670852, "3": 0.1974727842357774, "4": 0.16300412244320447, "5": 0.1081887817174226, "6": 0.05773752674741574, "7": 0.02477572810394622, "8": 0.008548442206900129, "9": 0.0023715912388995643 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.75, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "LAA 3 - 5 BOS", "winner": "BOS" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "LAA 3 - 5 BOS", "winner": "BOS" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0198, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.658, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "BOS", "model_winner": "BOS", "simulation_winner": "BOS", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "BOS", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667, "draw_majority_team": "BOS", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": 1.0127, "winner": "BOS", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260907	20260907_MIN@DET	MIN	53.0%	62.4%	54.1%	50.0%	5.0-4.0	4-5	miss	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.624052, "sample_size": 516, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5407, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.582376, "published_confidence": 0.53, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -9.0, "absolute_net_margin": 9.0, "home_average_margin": -1.8, "home_run_delta": -0.0519, "away_run_delta": 0.0519, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 5.0 }, { "home_margin": -13.0 }, { "home_margin": -10.0 }, { "home_margin": 11.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.6538, "recent_quality_edge": -0.48, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.257 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.02160016427891228 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.020550872171370346 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.020442296481901948 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.02034947051893916 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.019775587296834814 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.047436626766995255, "1": 0.07839797476894789, "2": 0.11286035932877554, "3": 0.14152186824935384, "4": 0.15457925761496322, "5": 0.14707011125335787, "6": 0.12188300814155364, "7": 0.08798475870144247, "8": 0.05532447099528128, "9": 0.03030209338227005, "10": 0.01445684531323322, "11": 0.006007862377299019, "12": 0.0021747631065268877 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.033678741917511155, "1": 0.05631297599317734, "2": 0.08395175639818028, "3": 0.11158858796483583, "4": 0.13224475778516834, "5": 0.13973520517685156, "6": 0.1316442505476837, "7": 0.11057746866949959, "8": 0.08281329777393343, "9": 0.05529708053240537, "10": 0.03292099966910919, "11": 0.017474812071461204, "12": 0.008270289295514138, "13": 0.003489776204669071 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.75, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "MIN 5 - 4 DET", "winner": "MIN" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "MIN 5 - 4 DET", "winner": "MIN" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.046, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.55, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "MIN", "model_winner": "MIN", "simulation_winner": "MIN", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "MIN", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.3333, "draw_majority_team": "DET", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": -0.257, "winner": "MIN", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260907	20260907_NYM@MIA	MIA	52.1%	46.2%	56.2%	50.0%	4.0-5.0	9-4	miss	Enhanced Prediction (-1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.461518, "sample_size": 336, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5625, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.512009, "published_confidence": 0.520771, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -2.0, "absolute_net_margin": 2.0, "home_average_margin": -0.4, "home_run_delta": -0.0115, "away_run_delta": 0.0115, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": 4.0 }, { "home_margin": 3.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": -9.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.508, "recent_quality_edge": -0.112, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.291 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.025644923384405213 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.02438330309633987 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.024020053169706564 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.023694401979561134 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.02324153082725313 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.05140482370348403, "1": 0.08467995171778815, "2": 0.1207186121833006, "3": 0.1489308852341302, "4": 0.15900552402680518, "5": 0.14691175897811204, "6": 0.11746752254510605, "7": 0.08128229636930945, "8": 0.0486733260819321, "9": 0.025223362955271156, "10": 0.011311803661439841, "11": 0.0043901325433212575 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.0539610572326909, "1": 0.08870047652598081, "2": 0.1256394166395915, "3": 0.1533487798337706, "4": 0.16128322296577563, "5": 0.14616807164092657, "6": 0.11414852307648647, "7": 0.07681438028970734, "8": 0.044541949469848616, "9": 0.02225616671678045, "10": 0.009582657501715166, "11": 0.00355529810672585 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.75, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "NYM 4 - 5 MIA", "winner": "MIA" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "NYM 4 - 5 MIA", "winner": "MIA" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0386, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.042, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "MIA", "model_winner": "MIA", "simulation_winner": "MIA", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "MIA", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667, "draw_majority_team": "MIA", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.291, "winner": "MIA", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260907	20260907_STL@SF	STL	62.7%	68.5%	54.0%	50.0%	7.0-5.0	4-5	miss	Enhanced Prediction (3.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.685068, "sample_size": 563, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.54, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.612534, "published_confidence": 0.626764, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": false, "sample_size": 0, "home_net_margin": 0.0, "home_average_margin": 0.0, "home_run_delta": 0.0, "away_run_delta": 0.0 }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.5938, "recent_quality_edge": -0.372, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.5161 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.016519689084748566 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.016356539945526997 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.015639194152050426 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.01557194506866104 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.015484740817551433 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.033170191698412704, "1": 0.05548722487586384, "2": 0.0828307366312896, "3": 0.11034268266669738, "4": 0.13117438866296743, "5": 0.13915796048852336, "6": 0.13174087906367535, "7": 0.11129779356902565, "8": 0.08390851752658857, "9": 0.05645196158689171, "10": 0.033892649646278195, "11": 0.018158731326664034, "12": 0.008681983964081097, "13": 0.0037042982930410033 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.018049799341649367, "1": 0.030611341182716537, "2": 0.047618503853986034, "3": 0.0679442239626119, "4": 0.08892272187980846, "5": 0.10674716784686576, "6": 0.11753937674931615, "7": 0.11871177923817718, "8": 0.10997340029884758, "9": 0.09344690049138706, "10": 0.0728325569564927, "11": 0.052067847213663435, "12": 0.03414263969129913, "13": 0.020535627435899866, "14": 0.011329278862417488, "15": 0.005732973911259181, "16": 0.0026609767050578344, "17": 0.0011328843785441275 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.75, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "STL 7 - 5 SF", "winner": "STL" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "STL 7 - 5 SF", "winner": "STL" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.1027, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.372, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "STL", "model_winner": "STL", "simulation_winner": "STL", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 1, "published_winner": "STL", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "STL", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": 0.5161, "winner": "STL", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260907	20260907_TOR@OAK	TOR	70.0%	85.9%	56.1%	50.0%	6.0-2.0	5-6	miss	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.85877, "sample_size": 114, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5614, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.710085, "published_confidence": 0.699558, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 3, "sample_weight": 0.0409, "home_net_margin": -5.0, "absolute_net_margin": 5.0, "home_average_margin": -1.667, "home_run_delta": -0.0341, "away_run_delta": 0.0341, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -1.1979, "recent_quality_edge": -0.556, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.9732 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.024042100817421114 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.023414181318174784 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.022358057150424136 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.021982243234306125 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.021685311787564547 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.08025585931245365, "1": 0.1290599374991828, "2": 0.17115870958913354, "3": 0.18719722586362975, "4": 0.16884673429530148, "5": 0.12559685766992407, "6": 0.07704735501342255, "7": 0.03897889708321656, "8": 0.016262758414920746, "9": 0.00559566525881485 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.024787661239238357, "1": 0.041772256219842215, "2": 0.06375415960145189, "3": 0.08812463446954337, "4": 0.11032002283453046, "5": 0.1250776084429352, "6": 0.12843192898026923, "7": 0.11943583590662626, "8": 0.1005922477334552, "9": 0.076729537929932, "10": 0.053006467711886565, "11": 0.03316372894916632, "12": 0.018791699576549494, "13": 0.009643550869353916, "14": 0.004482043857301176, "15": 0.0018866156779182644 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.75, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 2, "score_text": "TOR 6 - 2 OAK", "winner": "TOR" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 2, "score_text": "TOR 6 - 2 OAK", "winner": "TOR" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": true, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.1731, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.906, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 2, "winner": "TOR", "model_winner": "TOR", "simulation_winner": "TOR", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 4, "published_winner": "TOR", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.75, "draw_majority_team": "TOR", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": true, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 4, "simulation_margin": 4, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 2 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 2 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 4, "final_margin": 4, "winner_quality_edge": 0.9732, "winner": "TOR", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 2, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260907	20260907_WAS@SD	SD	53.0%	48.5%	55.6%	50.0%	5.0-6.0	2-3	hit	Enhanced Prediction (-2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.484966, "sample_size": 304, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5559, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.520433, "published_confidence": 0.529654, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 3, "sample_weight": 0.0409, "home_net_margin": -5.0, "absolute_net_margin": 5.0, "home_average_margin": -1.667, "home_run_delta": -0.0341, "away_run_delta": 0.0341, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": -5.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.0875, "recent_quality_edge": -0.268, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": -0.0369 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.02057457368927294 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.020212009890828057 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.019977521181426802 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.01962547860341569 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01878510555160399 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.03697977085944832, "1": 0.061656556465363714, "2": 0.0911355595426761, "3": 0.11942355964300466, "4": 0.1387348946009802, "5": 0.14288115559077177, "6": 0.13045410464602675, "7": 0.10559274785071389, "8": 0.07577116835648832, "9": 0.04820226267405913, "10": 0.027184691888482302, "11": 0.013591736739017044, "12": 0.006024472715986407, "13": 0.0023673184269814482 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.038496625245047, "1": 0.06410244709357427, "2": 0.09438302813147567, "3": 0.12287981625281505, "4": 0.14146029129773838, "5": 0.1439978113572997, "6": 0.12961181219322443, "7": 0.10315745588404844, "8": 0.07259789213463376, "9": 0.04517672537978854, "10": 0.02485838060786859, "11": 0.012094788180639585, "12": 0.005203445963228697, "13": 0.00197948027861759 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.75, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "WAS 5 - 6 SD", "winner": "SD" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "WAS 5 - 6 SD", "winner": "SD" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0934, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.3847, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "winner": "SD", "model_winner": "SD", "simulation_winner": "SD", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "SD", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "SD", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": -0.0369, "winner": "SD", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }

Starting-pitcher component quality

H	{ "mae": 2.2381, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.1429 }
R	{ "mae": 1.9524, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.5238 }
ER	{ "mae": 1.8095, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.7619 }
BB	{ "mae": 1.2381, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": -0.381 }
SO	{ "mae": 2.8571, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": -0.6667 }
HR	{ "mae": 0.7143, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.4286 }
IP_outs	{ "mae_outs": 3.5238, "mae_innings": 1.1746, "bias_outs": -0.4762 }

IP error is measured in outs. No single-outing ERA is used; ER and workload are compared directly.

Date

Game

Side

Pred starter

Actual starter

Match

Pred IP

Actual IP

Δ outs

Pred ER

Actual ER

Δ ER

H P/A

BB P/A

SO P/A

All context

20260907

20260907_ARI@KC

away

Jose Cabrera

Derek Law

False

4.2

2.0

-8

-2

3/1

1/0

5/0

Last 10 before this game (6 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.875,
      "WHIP": 1.3333333333333333,
      "IP": 24.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 6,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.4,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.4,
      "last_start_IP": 4.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.1242,
      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0106,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9689,
      "walk_factor": 0.9856,
      "homer_factor": 1.008,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 16.2,
      "bb_percent": 7.6,
      "woba": 0.336,
      "xwoba": 0.336,
      "barrel_percent": 7.8,
      "hard_hit_percent": 35.1,
      "whiff_percent": 18.8
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 429,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.8653846153846154,
        "last_10": 0.1346153846153846
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 6.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.5455,
        "prior_weight": 0.4545
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "703615",
      "report_date": "20260907",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 6,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 19.0,
            "ER": 13.0,
            "R": 13.0,
            "H": 21.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 14.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 87.0,
            "Pitches": 311.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.2,
            "ER": 2.6,
            "R": 2.6,
            "H": 4.2,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 2.8,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 17.4,
            "Pitches": 62.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.1579,
            "WHIP": 1.5263,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.68421,
            "H_per_IP": 1.10526,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.42105,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.73684,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.21053
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 6,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 24.0,
            "ER": 13.0,
            "R": 13.0,
            "H": 24.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 17.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 105.0,
            "Pitches": 373.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.0,
            "ER": 2.1667,
            "R": 2.1667,
            "H": 4.0,
            "BB": 1.3333,
            "SO": 2.8333,
            "HR": 0.6667,
            "BF": 17.5,
            "Pitches": 62.1667
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.875,
            "WHIP": 1.3333,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.54167,
            "H_per_IP": 1.0,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.33333,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.70833,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.16667
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 6,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 24.0,
            "ER": 13.0,
            "R": 13.0,
            "H": 24.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 17.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 105.0,
            "Pitches": 373.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.0,
            "ER": 2.1667,
            "R": 2.1667,
            "H": 4.0,
            "BB": 1.3333,
            "SO": 2.8333,
            "HR": 0.6667,
            "BF": 17.5,
            "Pitches": 62.1667
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.875,
            "WHIP": 1.3333,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.54167,
            "H_per_IP": 1.0,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.33333,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.70833,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.16667
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.445,
        "predicted_H": 4.3,
        "predicted_BB": 1.627,
        "predicted_SO": 3.427,
        "predicted_HR": 0.739,
        "predicted_ERA": 5.3074,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.4296
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.542,
      "form_weight": 0.458,
      "form_reliability": 0.5455,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 6.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.5455,
        "prior_weight": 0.4545
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.2,
          "form": 4.0,
          "final": 4.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.445,
          "final": 2.2038,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 4.3,
          "final": 3.5954,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.627,
          "final": 1.2871,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 3.427,
          "final": 4.2796,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.739,
          "final": 0.8805,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 5.3074,
          "final": 5.3074,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.4296,
          "final": 1.4296,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 24.0,
        "ER": 13,
        "H": 24,
        "BB": 8,
        "SO": 17,
        "HR": 4,
        "ERA": 4.875,
        "WHIP": 1.3333333333333333,
        "K9": 6.375,
        "HR9": 1.5,
        "games_pitched": 6,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 6,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 6,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-02T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0437133624509811,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 6.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.5455,
          "prior_weight": 0.4545
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "703615",
      "player_name": "Jose Cabrera",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "ARI",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.2,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.6667,
              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.6667,
              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.6667,
            "after": 4.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.1,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.6667,
            "after": 4.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.1,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "ARI",
        "games": 144,
        "wins": 76,
        "losses": 68,
        "win_pct": 0.5278,
        "runs_scored": 636.0,
        "runs_allowed": 637.0,
        "run_differential": -1.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.0069,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4167,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4236,
        "offense_index": 0.9815,
        "defense_index": 1.0173,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7,
          "run_differential": -6.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0228
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "KC",
        "games": 144,
        "wins": 64,
        "losses": 80,
        "win_pct": 0.4444,
        "runs_scored": 617.0,
        "runs_allowed": 705.0,
        "run_differential": -88.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.6111,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.2847,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.8958,
        "offense_index": 0.9522,
        "defense_index": 0.9191,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.8,
          "run_differential": 4.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1219
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.1447,
        "offense_edge": -0.0185,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0478,
        "defense_strength": 0.0173,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0809,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0082,
        "run_prevention": 0.9834,
        "strikeout": 1.0082
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "703615",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "703615",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 81.0,
            "k_percent": 16.2,
            "bb_percent": 7.6,
            "woba": 0.336,
            "xwoba": 0.336,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 20.8,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.8,
            "hard_hit_percent": 35.1,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.3676,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.1489,
            "whiff_percent": 18.8,
            "swing_percent": 44.2
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 117.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.61,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9158,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.204,
            "command_and_miss": -0.6079,
            "regression_edge": 0.0,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.7143,
            "barrel_edge": -0.1556,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.4,
            "whiff_edge": -0.9,
            "bb_edge": 0.4,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0467
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "703615",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 70,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 70,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.04223045626271,
              "release_spin_rate": 2313.681214192303,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 70,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.04223045626271,
                "release_spin_rate": 2313.681214192303,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.0422,
              "release_spin_rate": 2313.6812,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0467,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.3339,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.1242,
          "sample_weight": 0.45,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0106,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9689,
          "walk_factor": 0.9856,
          "homer_factor": 1.008,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.0,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "703615",
            "espn_id": 5270084,
            "player_name": "Jose Cabrera",
            "team": "ARI",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 429,
            "espn_total_ranked": 858,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 429,
              "gp_value": 6.0,
              "gp_rank": 604,
              "gs_value": 5.0,
              "gs_rank": 219,
              "qs_value": 0.0,
              "qs_rank": 208,
              "era_value": 4.875,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 0.0,
              "w_rank": 531,
              "l_value": 3.0,
              "l_rank": 232,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 246,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 350,
              "ip_value": 24.0,
              "ip_rank": 476,
              "h_value": 24.0,
              "h_rank": 465,
              "er_value": 13.0,
              "er_rank": 457,
              "hr_value": 4.0,
              "hr_rank": 369,
              "bb_value": 8.0,
              "bb_rank": 518,
              "k_value": 17.0,
              "k_rank": 506,
              "k_per_9_value": 6.375,
              "k_per_9_rank": 28,
              "whip_value": 1.3333,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.07,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0048,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0048,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9935,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0036,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.986,
            "adjusted": 3
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.2,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 19,
      "Pitches": 84,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "WRONG_STARTER",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Wrong starter identity",
      "detail": "The projected MLB player ID differs from the official starter ID; performance errors are not attributable to the projected player."
    },
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 6 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -8 outs from the projected workload."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260907_ARI@KC.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260907

20260907_ARI@KC

home

Noah Cameron

True

6.0

-1

2/3

1/2

4/7

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.082073434125269,
      "WHIP": 1.2181425485961122,
      "IP": 154.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 27,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.667,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.133,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.0314,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0027,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0051,
      "walk_factor": 0.968,
      "homer_factor": 1.0171,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 21.3,
      "bb_percent": 7.6,
      "woba": 0.301,
      "xwoba": 0.311,
      "barrel_percent": 7.9,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.4,
      "whiff_percent": 26.7
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 108,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 27.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
        "prior_weight": 0.1562
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "702070",
      "report_date": "20260907",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 27,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 30.2,
            "ER": 10.0,
            "R": 10.0,
            "H": 20.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 22.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 120.0,
            "Pitches": 468.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 4.0,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 4.4,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 24.0,
            "Pitches": 93.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.9348,
            "WHIP": 0.9457,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.32609,
            "H_per_IP": 0.65217,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.29348,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.71739,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.06522
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 65.2,
            "ER": 23.0,
            "R": 23.0,
            "H": 40.0,
            "BB": 19.0,
            "SO": 56.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 251.0,
            "Pitches": 958.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.2,
            "ER": 2.3,
            "R": 2.3,
            "H": 4.0,
            "BB": 1.9,
            "SO": 5.6,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 25.1,
            "Pitches": 95.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.1523,
            "WHIP": 0.8985,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.35025,
            "H_per_IP": 0.60914,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.28934,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.85279,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09137
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 27,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 154.1,
            "ER": 70.0,
            "R": 75.0,
            "H": 139.0,
            "BB": 49.0,
            "SO": 138.0,
            "HR": 16.0,
            "BF": 647.0,
            "Pitches": 2514.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.5926,
            "R": 2.7778,
            "H": 5.1481,
            "BB": 1.8148,
            "SO": 5.1111,
            "HR": 0.5926,
            "BF": 23.963,
            "Pitches": 93.1111
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.0821,
            "WHIP": 1.2181,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.45356,
            "H_per_IP": 0.90065,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.31749,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.89417,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10367
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.344,
        "predicted_H": 4.492,
        "predicted_BB": 1.895,
        "predicted_SO": 5.046,
        "predicted_HR": 0.566,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.4362,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.0401
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.416,
      "form_weight": 0.584,
      "form_reliability": 0.8438,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 27.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
        "prior_weight": 0.1562
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 6.0,
          "final": 6.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.344,
          "final": 1.7849,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 4.492,
          "final": 3.4553,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.895,
          "final": 1.5227,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 5.046,
          "final": 4.6109,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.566,
          "final": 0.3305,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.4362,
          "final": 3.4362,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.0401,
          "final": 1.0401,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 65.2,
        "ER": 23,
        "H": 40,
        "BB": 19,
        "SO": 56,
        "HR": 6,
        "ERA": 3.1522842639593907,
        "WHIP": 0.898477157360406,
        "K9": 7.6751269035532985,
        "HR9": 0.8223350253807106,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 5,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-02T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8510151952403202,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 27.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8438,
          "prior_weight": 0.1562
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "702070",
      "player_name": "Noah Cameron",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "KC",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_R": 1.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 0,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 0,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "KC",
        "games": 144,
        "wins": 64,
        "losses": 80,
        "win_pct": 0.4444,
        "runs_scored": 617.0,
        "runs_allowed": 705.0,
        "run_differential": -88.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.6111,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.2847,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.8958,
        "offense_index": 0.9522,
        "defense_index": 0.9191,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.8,
          "run_differential": 4.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1219
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "ARI",
        "games": 144,
        "wins": 76,
        "losses": 68,
        "win_pct": 0.5278,
        "runs_scored": 636.0,
        "runs_allowed": 637.0,
        "run_differential": -1.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.0069,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4167,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4236,
        "offense_index": 0.9815,
        "defense_index": 1.0173,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7,
          "run_differential": -6.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0228
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.1447,
        "offense_edge": -0.0478,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0185,
        "defense_strength": -0.0809,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0173,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9925,
        "run_prevention": 1.0124,
        "strikeout": 0.9971
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "702070",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "702070",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 575.0,
            "k_percent": 21.3,
            "bb_percent": 7.6,
            "woba": 0.301,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 38.2,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.9,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.4,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.0543,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.0484,
            "whiff_percent": 26.7,
            "swing_percent": 47.7
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 117.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.61,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9158,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.0337,
            "command_and_miss": 0.115,
            "regression_edge": -0.2857,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.0,
            "barrel_edge": -0.1778,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.0714,
            "whiff_edge": 0.2286,
            "bb_edge": 0.4,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.1735
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "702070",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 107,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 107,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 86.77804095392263,
              "release_spin_rate": 2196.6732125022254,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 107,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 86.77804095392263,
                "release_spin_rate": 2196.6732125022254,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 86.778,
              "release_spin_rate": 2196.6732,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1735,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.2396,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.0314,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0027,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0051,
          "walk_factor": 0.968,
          "homer_factor": 1.0171,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.01,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "702070",
            "espn_id": 4417208,
            "player_name": "Noah Cameron",
            "team": "KC",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 108,
            "espn_total_ranked": 858,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 108,
              "gp_value": 27.0,
              "gp_rank": 274,
              "gs_value": 26.0,
              "gs_rank": 45,
              "qs_value": 9.0,
              "qs_rank": 64,
              "era_value": 4.082,
              "era_rank": 36.0,
              "w_value": 9.0,
              "w_rank": 39,
              "l_value": 8.0,
              "l_rank": 53,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 246,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 350,
              "ip_value": 154.1,
              "ip_rank": 34,
              "h_value": 139.0,
              "h_rank": 34,
              "er_value": 70.0,
              "er_rank": 25,
              "hr_value": 16.0,
              "hr_rank": 79,
              "bb_value": 49.0,
              "bb_rank": 41,
              "k_value": 138.0,
              "k_rank": 42,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.047517,
              "k_per_9_rank": 33,
              "whip_value": 1.2181,
              "whip_rank": 31.0,
              "war_value": 1.63,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0027,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0027,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.968,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.0171,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0051,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 92,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260907_ARI@KC.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260907

20260907_ATL@PHI

away

Grant Holmes

True

4.2

6.0

-2

2/3

1/2

6/6

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.770573566084788,
      "WHIP": 1.3391521197007483,
      "IP": 133.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 28,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.802,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.733,
      "last_start_IP": 3.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.3599,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0306,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9909,
      "walk_factor": 1.012,
      "homer_factor": 1.0763,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 18.5,
      "bb_percent": 9.8,
      "woba": 0.312,
      "xwoba": 0.333,
      "barrel_percent": 8.5,
      "hard_hit_percent": 43.6,
      "whiff_percent": 27.0
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 65,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 28.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8485,
        "prior_weight": 0.1515
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "656550",
      "report_date": "20260907",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 28,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 23.2,
            "ER": 9.0,
            "R": 9.0,
            "H": 18.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 12.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 95.0,
            "Pitches": 346.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 1.8,
            "H": 3.6,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 2.4,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 19.0,
            "Pitches": 69.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.4225,
            "WHIP": 1.1408,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.38028,
            "H_per_IP": 0.76056,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.38028,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.50704,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.04225
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 49.1,
            "ER": 18.0,
            "R": 18.0,
            "H": 44.0,
            "BB": 17.0,
            "SO": 33.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 205.0,
            "Pitches": 742.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 1.8,
            "H": 4.4,
            "BB": 1.7,
            "SO": 3.3,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 20.5,
            "Pitches": 74.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.2838,
            "WHIP": 1.2365,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.36486,
            "H_per_IP": 0.89189,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.34459,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.66892,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08108
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 28,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 133.2,
            "ER": 56.0,
            "R": 58.0,
            "H": 121.0,
            "BB": 58.0,
            "SO": 106.0,
            "HR": 19.0,
            "BF": 574.0,
            "Pitches": 2136.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.0714,
            "H": 4.3214,
            "BB": 2.0714,
            "SO": 3.7857,
            "HR": 0.6786,
            "BF": 20.5,
            "Pitches": 76.2857
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.7706,
            "WHIP": 1.3392,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.41895,
            "H_per_IP": 0.90524,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.43392,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.79302,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.14214
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.2,
        "predicted_ER": 1.908,
        "predicted_H": 4.081,
        "predicted_BB": 1.799,
        "predicted_SO": 3.189,
        "predicted_HR": 0.412,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.6027,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2338
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.414,
      "form_weight": 0.586,
      "form_reliability": 0.8485,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        "predicted_ER": {
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        "predicted_H": {
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        "predicted_BB": {
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        "predicted_SO": {
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        "predicted_HR": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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          "final": 3.6027,
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
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    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
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      "pitching": {
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-02T00:00:00"
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    "stat_evolution": [
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        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "656550",
      "player_name": "Grant Holmes",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "ATL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
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          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
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              "metric": "predicted_H",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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              "material": true
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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          {
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          {
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          {
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
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        ],
        "summary": {
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            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
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          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "ATL",
        "games": 143,
        "wins": 85,
        "losses": 58,
        "win_pct": 0.5944,
        "runs_scored": 665.0,
        "runs_allowed": 545.0,
        "run_differential": 120.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.8392,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.6503,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8112,
        "offense_index": 1.0366,
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        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
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          "avg_runs_scored": 4.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.3,
          "run_differential": 8.0
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        "available": true,
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      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "PHI",
        "games": 143,
        "wins": 80,
        "losses": 63,
        "win_pct": 0.5594,
        "runs_scored": 641.0,
        "runs_allowed": 607.0,
        "run_differential": 34.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.2378,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4825,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2448,
        "offense_index": 0.9992,
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        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
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          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.2,
          "run_differential": 17.0
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        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1496
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      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.1035,
        "offense_edge": 0.0366,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0008,
        "defense_strength": 0.1771,
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        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0095,
        "run_prevention": 0.977,
        "strikeout": 1.0032
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "656550",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "656550",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 505.0,
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            "xwoba": 0.333,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.8,
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            "avg_best_speed": 81.6998,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.669,
            "whiff_percent": 27.0,
            "swing_percent": 48.7
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 117.0,
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            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.61,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9158,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
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          "components": {
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            "command_and_miss": -0.16,
            "regression_edge": -0.6,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.6286,
            "barrel_edge": -0.3111,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.8143,
            "whiff_edge": 0.2714,
            "bb_edge": -0.15,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0253
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "656550",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 71,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 71,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.4253815918858,
              "release_spin_rate": 2458.5893886602285,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
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                "pitches": 71,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.4253815918858,
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                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
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                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.4254,
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              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
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              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
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            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0253,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.1806,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.3599,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0306,
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          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.021,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "656550",
            "espn_id": 33840,
            "player_name": "Grant Holmes",
            "team": "ATL",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 65,
            "espn_total_ranked": 858,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 65,
              "gp_value": 27.0,
              "gp_rank": 274,
              "gs_value": 26.0,
              "gs_rank": 45,
              "qs_value": 8.0,
              "qs_rank": 74,
              "era_value": 3.6227,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 9.0,
              "w_rank": 39,
              "l_value": 5.0,
              "l_rank": 133,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 246,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 350,
              "ip_value": 131.2,
              "ip_rank": 73,
              "h_value": 117.0,
              "h_rank": 81,
              "er_value": 53.0,
              "er_rank": 93,
              "hr_value": 19.0,
              "hr_rank": 45,
              "bb_value": 55.0,
              "bb_rank": 23,
              "k_value": 104.0,
              "k_rank": 90,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.1088605,
              "k_per_9_rank": 33,
              "whip_value": 1.3063,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 2.11,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0306,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0306,
            "adjusted": 4
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          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.012,
            "adjusted": 2
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          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.0763,
            "adjusted": 0
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9909,
            "adjusted": 3
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.2,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 17,
      "Pitches": 80,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260907_ATL@PHI.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260907

20260907_ATL@PHI

home

Jesús Luzardo

True

6.1

9.0

-2

5/2

0/1

5/12

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "ERA": 3.0235756385068764,
      "WHIP": 1.119842829076621,
      "IP": 169.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 28,
      "role_avg_IP": 6.06,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.6,
      "last_start_IP": 6.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.7264,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9383,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0829,
      "walk_factor": 0.962,
      "homer_factor": 0.9185,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 30.0,
      "bb_percent": 7.3,
      "woba": 0.282,
      "xwoba": 0.266,
      "barrel_percent": 6.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 33.5,
      "whiff_percent": 31.6
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 4,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 28.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8485,
        "prior_weight": 0.1515
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "666200",
      "report_date": "20260907",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 28,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 33.0,
            "ER": 6.0,
            "R": 8.0,
            "H": 23.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 45.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 131.0,
            "Pitches": 522.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.2,
            "ER": 1.2,
            "R": 1.6,
            "H": 4.6,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 9.0,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 26.2,
            "Pitches": 104.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.6364,
            "WHIP": 0.9394,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.18182,
            "H_per_IP": 0.69697,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.24242,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.36364,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09091
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 66.1,
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          },
          "per_game": {
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          "rates": {
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            "ER_per_IP": 0.21106,
            "H_per_IP": 0.61809,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.27136,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.26633,
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        },
        "season": {
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          "per_game": {
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          "rates": {
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            "ER_per_IP": 0.33595,
            "H_per_IP": 0.81925,
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            "SO_per_IP": 1.23183,
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      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
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    "model_form_blend_trace": {
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      "adaptive_parameters": {
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8485,
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      "applied_metrics": {
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          "form": 6.2,
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
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          "form": 4.787,
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        "predicted_BB": {
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        "predicted_SO": {
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        "predicted_HR": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.3829,
          "final": 2.3829,
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        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
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          "final": 1.0166,
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    "recent_form_analysis": {
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        "AVG": 0,
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      "pitching": {
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        "SO": 84,
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        "K9": 11.396984924623116,
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        "games_pitched": 10,
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        "dominant_form": true,
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      "fielding": {
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        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-01T00:00:00"
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    "recent_form_boost": 0.7098509348520847,
    "stat_evolution": [
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        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
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          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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          "sample_size": 28.0,
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          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8485,
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      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_SO": 8,
          "predicted_HR": 1
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "666200",
      "player_name": "Jes\u00fas Luzardo",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "PHI",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
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          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
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          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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            "biggest_deboost": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
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        {
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          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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            {
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            {
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            {
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
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          {
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          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
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        "run_differential_per_game": 0.2378,
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        "available": true,
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      "opponent": {
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        "runs_scored": 665.0,
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        "run_differential_per_game": 0.8392,
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          "avg_runs_scored": 4.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.3,
          "run_differential": 8.0
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        "quality_score": 0.2531
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      "edges": {
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        "offense_edge": -0.0008,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0366,
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        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
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      "player_factors": {
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "666200",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "666200",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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          "league_medians": {
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          "components": {
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            "pitch_design_score": 0.0387
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "666200",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 102,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 102,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.56733124144404,
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              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
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              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
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            "pitch_mix": [
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                "pitches": 102,
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                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.5673,
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            "components": {
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              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.7264,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
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          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_name": "Jesus Luzardo",
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            "espn_total_ranked": 858,
            "metrics": {
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              "gp_value": 28.0,
              "gp_rank": 245,
              "gs_value": 28.0,
              "gs_rank": 16,
              "qs_value": 16.0,
              "qs_rank": 13,
              "era_value": 3.0235,
              "era_rank": 13.0,
              "w_value": 13.0,
              "w_rank": 11,
              "l_value": 5.0,
              "l_rank": 133,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 246,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 350,
              "ip_value": 169.2,
              "ip_rank": 6,
              "h_value": 139.0,
              "h_rank": 34,
              "er_value": 57.0,
              "er_rank": 67,
              "hr_value": 15.0,
              "hr_rank": 86,
              "bb_value": 51.0,
              "bb_rank": 32,
              "k_value": 209.0,
              "k_rank": 5,
              "k_per_9_value": 11.086444,
              "k_per_9_rank": 22,
              "whip_value": 1.1198,
              "whip_rank": 17.0,
              "war_value": 5.58,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9383,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9383,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.962,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9185,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 8.0,
            "factor": 1.0829,
            "adjusted": 9
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.1,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 24,
      "Pitches": 98,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by +8 outs from the projected workload."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260907_ATL@PHI.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260907

20260907_CHC@MIL

away

Matthew Boyd

True

5.2

7.0

-1

7/5

2/2

4/7

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "ERA": 4.045602605863192,
      "WHIP": 1.231270358306189,
      "IP": 102.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 18,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.685,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.933,
      "last_start_IP": 5.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.3379,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0287,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9657,
      "walk_factor": 0.962,
      "homer_factor": 1.0667,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 18.7,
      "bb_percent": 7.3,
      "woba": 0.317,
      "xwoba": 0.337,
      "barrel_percent": 9.5,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.2,
      "whiff_percent": 22.4
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 224,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 18.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7826,
        "prior_weight": 0.2174
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "571510",
      "report_date": "20260907",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 18,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 29.2,
            "ER": 17.0,
            "R": 18.0,
            "H": 26.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 16.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 121.0,
            "Pitches": 472.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 3.4,
            "R": 3.6,
            "H": 5.2,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 3.2,
            "HR": 1.4,
            "BF": 24.2,
            "Pitches": 94.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.1573,
            "WHIP": 1.2472,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.57303,
            "H_per_IP": 0.8764,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.37079,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.53933,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.23596
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 62.2,
            "ER": 27.0,
            "R": 29.0,
            "H": 55.0,
            "BB": 19.0,
            "SO": 35.0,
            "HR": 11.0,
            "BF": 255.0,
            "Pitches": 933.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.1,
            "ER": 2.7,
            "R": 2.9,
            "H": 5.5,
            "BB": 1.9,
            "SO": 3.5,
            "HR": 1.1,
            "BF": 25.5,
            "Pitches": 93.3
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.8777,
            "WHIP": 1.1809,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.43085,
            "H_per_IP": 0.87766,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.30319,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.55851,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.17553
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 18,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 102.1,
            "ER": 46.0,
            "R": 49.0,
            "H": 95.0,
            "BB": 31.0,
            "SO": 79.0,
            "HR": 15.0,
            "BF": 423.0,
            "Pitches": 1608.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.5556,
            "R": 2.7222,
            "H": 5.2778,
            "BB": 1.7222,
            "SO": 4.3889,
            "HR": 0.8333,
            "BF": 23.5,
            "Pitches": 89.3333
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.0456,
            "WHIP": 1.2313,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.44951,
            "H_per_IP": 0.92834,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.30293,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.77199,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.14658
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.976,
        "predicted_H": 5.405,
        "predicted_BB": 2.04,
        "predicted_SO": 3.985,
        "predicted_HR": 1.11,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.4886,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2478
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4419,
      "form_weight": 0.5581,
      "form_reliability": 0.7826,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7826,
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      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 6.0,
          "final": 6.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.976,
          "final": 3.4285,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 5.405,
          "final": 6.1098,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.04,
          "final": 2.0223,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 3.985,
          "final": 3.9916,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.11,
          "final": 1.0614,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.4886,
          "final": 4.4886,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2478,
          "final": 1.2478,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 62.2,
        "ER": 27,
        "H": 55,
        "BB": 19,
        "SO": 35,
        "HR": 11,
        "ERA": 3.877659574468085,
        "WHIP": 1.1808510638297873,
        "K9": 5.026595744680852,
        "HR9": 1.5797872340425532,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 5,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-01T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9396792653342829,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 7.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 18.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7826,
          "prior_weight": 0.2174
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "571510",
      "player_name": "Matthew Boyd",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CHC",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
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            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
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            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 7.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
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          {
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          {
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          {
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          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
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      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
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        "games": 144,
        "wins": 81,
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        "win_pct": 0.5625,
        "runs_scored": 768.0,
        "runs_allowed": 636.0,
        "run_differential": 132.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.9167,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.3333,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4167,
        "offense_index": 1.1889,
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        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
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          "avg_runs_scored": 7.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.0,
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      },
      "opponent": {
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        "runs_scored": 726.0,
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        "run_differential_per_game": 1.1667,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.0417,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.875,
        "offense_index": 1.1239,
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        "recent": {
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          "avg_runs_scored": 5.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.3,
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        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.2375
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.072,
        "offense_edge": 0.1889,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.1239,
        "defense_strength": 0.0157,
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        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
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      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9926,
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        "strikeout": 0.9879
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "571510",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "571510",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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          "league_medians": {
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          "components": {
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
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            "pitcher_id": "571510",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 95,
            "primary_pitch": {
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              "release_spin_rate": 2219.1498721779217,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 95,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 85.25414106885589,
                "release_spin_rate": 2219.1498721779217,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 85.2541,
              "release_spin_rate": 2219.1499,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.2589,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.8491,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.3379,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0287,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9657,
          "walk_factor": 0.962,
          "homer_factor": 1.0667,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.02,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "571510",
            "espn_id": 34401,
            "player_name": "Matthew Boyd",
            "team": "CHC",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 224,
            "espn_total_ranked": 858,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 224,
              "gp_value": 18.0,
              "gp_rank": 409,
              "gs_value": 18.0,
              "gs_rank": 112,
              "qs_value": 7.0,
              "qs_rank": 79,
              "era_value": 4.0456,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 8.0,
              "w_rank": 63,
              "l_value": 3.0,
              "l_rank": 232,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 246,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 350,
              "ip_value": 102.1,
              "ip_rank": 116,
              "h_value": 95.0,
              "h_rank": 120,
              "er_value": 46.0,
              "er_rank": 121,
              "hr_value": 15.0,
              "hr_rank": 86,
              "bb_value": 31.0,
              "bb_rank": 152,
              "k_value": 79.0,
              "k_rank": 153,
              "k_per_9_value": 6.947883,
              "k_per_9_rank": 35,
              "whip_value": 1.2312,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.67,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0287,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0287,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.962,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0667,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9657,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 7,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 26,
      "Pitches": 112,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260907_CHC@MIL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260907

20260907_CHC@MIL

home

Robert Gasser

True

5.0

4.2

-1

-3

5/3

0/2

5/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "ERA": 4.569230769230769,
      "WHIP": 1.2923076923076922,
      "IP": 86.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 17,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.083,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.8,
      "last_start_IP": 4.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0208,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9982,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9829,
      "walk_factor": 0.954,
      "homer_factor": 0.9631,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 21.8,
      "bb_percent": 6.9,
      "woba": 0.328,
      "xwoba": 0.314,
      "barrel_percent": 6.2,
      "hard_hit_percent": 33.8,
      "whiff_percent": 22.3
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 292,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
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      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 17.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7727,
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      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "688107",
      "report_date": "20260907",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 17,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 24.1,
            "ER": 13.0,
            "R": 14.0,
            "H": 28.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 24.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 114.0,
            "Pitches": 431.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.6,
            "R": 2.8,
            "H": 5.6,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 4.8,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 22.8,
            "Pitches": 86.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.8082,
            "WHIP": 1.6027,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.53425,
            "H_per_IP": 1.15068,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.45205,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.9863,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08219
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 51.0,
            "ER": 26.0,
            "R": 27.0,
            "H": 52.0,
            "BB": 14.0,
            "SO": 46.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 223.0,
            "Pitches": 822.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.6,
            "R": 2.7,
            "H": 5.2,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 4.6,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 22.3,
            "Pitches": 82.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.5882,
            "WHIP": 1.2941,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.5098,
            "H_per_IP": 1.01961,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.27451,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.90196,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11765
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 17,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 86.2,
            "ER": 44.0,
            "R": 46.0,
            "H": 85.0,
            "BB": 27.0,
            "SO": 82.0,
            "HR": 13.0,
            "BF": 377.0,
            "Pitches": 1451.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.5882,
            "R": 2.7059,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 1.5882,
            "SO": 4.8235,
            "HR": 0.7647,
            "BF": 22.1765,
            "Pitches": 85.3529
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.5692,
            "WHIP": 1.2923,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.50769,
            "H_per_IP": 0.98077,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.31154,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.94615,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.578,
        "predicted_H": 5.243,
        "predicted_BB": 1.821,
        "predicted_SO": 4.733,
        "predicted_HR": 0.584,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.6403,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.4127
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.446,
      "form_weight": 0.554,
      "form_reliability": 0.7727,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7727,
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      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
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          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.578,
          "final": 3.2123,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.243,
          "final": 5.1346,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.821,
          "final": 1.0088,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.733,
          "final": 4.8521,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.584,
          "final": 0.7696,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.6403,
          "final": 4.6403,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.4127,
          "final": 1.4127,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 51.0,
        "ER": 26,
        "H": 52,
        "BB": 14,
        "SO": 46,
        "HR": 6,
        "ERA": 4.588235294117648,
        "WHIP": 1.2941176470588238,
        "K9": 8.11764705882353,
        "HR9": 1.058823529411765,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 2,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-01T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0224506983755846,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 17.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7727,
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "688107",
      "player_name": "Robert Gasser",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "MIL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 5.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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        ],
        "summary": {
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          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "MIL",
        "games": 144,
        "wins": 88,
        "losses": 56,
        "win_pct": 0.6111,
        "runs_scored": 726.0,
        "runs_allowed": 558.0,
        "run_differential": 168.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.1667,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.0417,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.875,
        "offense_index": 1.1239,
        "defense_index": 1.1577,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.3,
          "run_differential": -5.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.2375
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "CHC",
        "games": 144,
        "wins": 81,
        "losses": 63,
        "win_pct": 0.5625,
        "runs_scored": 768.0,
        "runs_allowed": 636.0,
        "run_differential": 132.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.9167,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.3333,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4167,
        "offense_index": 1.1889,
        "defense_index": 1.0157,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 7.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.0,
          "run_differential": 13.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1655
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.072,
        "offense_edge": 0.1239,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.1889,
        "defense_strength": 0.1577,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0157,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0001,
        "run_prevention": 1.0109,
        "strikeout": 0.987
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "688107",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "688107",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 312.0,
            "k_percent": 21.8,
            "bb_percent": 6.9,
            "woba": 0.328,
            "xwoba": 0.314,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 37.7,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 33.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 75.0827,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.0791,
            "whiff_percent": 22.3,
            "swing_percent": 49.7
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 117.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.61,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9158,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.0026,
            "command_and_miss": -0.0379,
            "regression_edge": 0.4,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.0857,
            "barrel_edge": 0.2,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.5857,
            "whiff_edge": -0.4,
            "bb_edge": 0.575,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0991
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "688107",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 90,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 90,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.10672773196258,
              "release_spin_rate": 2274.4345249885405,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 90,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.10672773196258,
                "release_spin_rate": 2274.4345249885405,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.1067,
              "release_spin_rate": 2274.4345,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0991,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.7081,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0208,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9982,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9829,
          "walk_factor": 0.954,
          "homer_factor": 0.9631,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.014,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "688107",
            "espn_id": 4918251,
            "player_name": "Robert Gasser",
            "team": "MIL",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 292,
            "espn_total_ranked": 858,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 292,
              "gp_value": 17.0,
              "gp_rank": 424,
              "gs_value": 16.0,
              "gs_rank": 128,
              "qs_value": 4.0,
              "qs_rank": 122,
              "era_value": 4.5692,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 4.0,
              "w_rank": 184,
              "l_value": 5.0,
              "l_rank": 133,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 246,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 350,
              "ip_value": 86.2,
              "ip_rank": 143,
              "h_value": 85.0,
              "h_rank": 129,
              "er_value": 44.0,
              "er_rank": 132,
              "hr_value": 13.0,
              "hr_rank": 117,
              "bb_value": 27.0,
              "bb_rank": 190,
              "k_value": 82.0,
              "k_rank": 145,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.515385,
              "k_per_9_rank": 27,
              "whip_value": 1.2923,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.34,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9982,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9982,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.954,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9631,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9829,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 20,
      "Pitches": 78,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -3."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260907_CHC@MIL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260907

20260907_CIN@LAD

away

Chase Burns

True

5.2

3.0

-8

-3

5/0

3/1

8/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.786697247706422,
      "WHIP": 1.1559633027522935,
      "IP": 145.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 26,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.59,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.333,
      "last_start_IP": 5.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.4689,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9601,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.076,
      "walk_factor": 0.984,
      "homer_factor": 0.9903,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 28.9,
      "bb_percent": 8.4,
      "woba": 0.286,
      "xwoba": 0.279,
      "barrel_percent": 8.0,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.2,
      "whiff_percent": 31.5
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 10,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.2,
      "season_IP": 145.1,
      "season_ERA": 2.787,
      "season_WHIP": 1.156,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 26.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8387,
        "prior_weight": 0.1613
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "695505",
      "report_date": "20260907",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 26,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 26.2,
            "ER": 14.0,
            "R": 15.0,
            "H": 31.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 34.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 115.0,
            "Pitches": 457.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.8,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 6.2,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 6.8,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 23.0,
            "Pitches": 91.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.725,
            "WHIP": 1.425,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.525,
            "H_per_IP": 1.1625,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.2625,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.275,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.075
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 53.2,
            "ER": 21.0,
            "R": 26.0,
            "H": 48.0,
            "BB": 21.0,
            "SO": 59.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 225.0,
            "Pitches": 920.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.1,
            "R": 2.6,
            "H": 4.8,
            "BB": 2.1,
            "SO": 5.9,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 22.5,
            "Pitches": 92.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.5217,
            "WHIP": 1.2857,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.3913,
            "H_per_IP": 0.89441,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.3913,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.09938,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07453
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 26,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 145.1,
            "ER": 45.0,
            "R": 50.0,
            "H": 118.0,
            "BB": 50.0,
            "SO": 171.0,
            "HR": 15.0,
            "BF": 592.0,
            "Pitches": 2402.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 1.7308,
            "R": 1.9231,
            "H": 4.5385,
            "BB": 1.9231,
            "SO": 6.5769,
            "HR": 0.5769,
            "BF": 22.7692,
            "Pitches": 92.3846
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.7867,
            "WHIP": 1.156,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.30963,
            "H_per_IP": 0.81193,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.34404,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.17661,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10321
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.425,
        "predicted_H": 5.412,
        "predicted_BB": 1.805,
        "predicted_SO": 6.274,
        "predicted_HR": 0.496,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.0094,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3261
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4181,
      "form_weight": 0.5819,
      "form_reliability": 0.8387,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 26.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8387,
        "prior_weight": 0.1613
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.425,
          "final": 2.2473,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.412,
          "final": 5.2397,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 1.805,
          "final": 2.3047,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 6.274,
          "final": 6.5776,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.496,
          "final": 0.2886,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.0094,
          "final": 4.0094,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3261,
          "final": 1.3261,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 47.2,
        "ER": 19,
        "H": 44,
        "BB": 19,
        "SO": 55,
        "HR": 3,
        "ERA": 3.587412587412587,
        "WHIP": 1.3216783216783214,
        "K9": 10.384615384615383,
        "HR9": 0.5664335664335663,
        "games_pitched": 9,
        "quality_starts": 2,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-30T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9105471607367528,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 7.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 26.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8387,
          "prior_weight": 0.1613
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.2,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 5,
          "predicted_BB": 3,
          "predicted_SO": 7,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "695505",
      "player_name": "Chase Burns",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CIN",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.2,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.1429,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 1,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.1429,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 7.0,
            "after": 8.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.1429,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 2,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 1,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 7.0,
            "after": 8.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.1429,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "CIN",
        "games": 143,
        "wins": 69,
        "losses": 74,
        "win_pct": 0.4825,
        "runs_scored": 605.0,
        "runs_allowed": 710.0,
        "run_differential": -105.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.7343,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.2308,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.965,
        "offense_index": 0.9419,
        "defense_index": 0.9046,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 7.1,
          "run_differential": -4.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0348
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "LAD",
        "games": 143,
        "wins": 86,
        "losses": 57,
        "win_pct": 0.6014,
        "runs_scored": 705.0,
        "runs_allowed": 553.0,
        "run_differential": 152.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.0629,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.9301,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8671,
        "offense_index": 1.0976,
        "defense_index": 1.1615,
        "current_streak": "W4",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1,
          "run_differential": 3.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.2513
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.2861,
        "offense_edge": -0.0581,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0976,
        "defense_strength": -0.0954,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1615,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9818,
        "run_prevention": 1.0395,
        "strikeout": 0.9836
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "695505",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "695505",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 540.0,
            "k_percent": 28.9,
            "bb_percent": 8.4,
            "woba": 0.286,
            "xwoba": 0.279,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 35.0,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.0,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.2,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.5887,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.7919,
            "whiff_percent": 31.5,
            "swing_percent": 49.4
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 117.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.61,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9158,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.3926,
            "command_and_miss": 0.8036,
            "regression_edge": 0.2,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.9143,
            "barrel_edge": -0.2,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.0429,
            "whiff_edge": 0.9143,
            "bb_edge": 0.2,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.2513
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "695505",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 95,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 95,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 94.36490843177926,
              "release_spin_rate": 2642.6191277414805,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 95,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 94.36490843177926,
                "release_spin_rate": 2642.6191277414805,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 94.3649,
              "release_spin_rate": 2642.6191,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.2513,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 1.7952,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.4689,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9601,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.076,
          "walk_factor": 0.984,
          "homer_factor": 0.9903,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.007,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "695505",
            "espn_id": 4927516,
            "player_name": "Chase Burns",
            "team": "CIN",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 10,
            "espn_total_ranked": 858,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 10,
              "gp_value": 26.0,
              "gp_rank": 297,
              "gs_value": 26.0,
              "gs_rank": 45,
              "qs_value": 11.0,
              "qs_rank": 45,
              "era_value": 2.7866,
              "era_rank": 10.0,
              "w_value": 15.0,
              "w_rank": 3,
              "l_value": 3.0,
              "l_rank": 232,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 246,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 350,
              "ip_value": 145.1,
              "ip_rank": 47,
              "h_value": 118.0,
              "h_rank": 80,
              "er_value": 45.0,
              "er_rank": 125,
              "hr_value": 15.0,
              "hr_rank": 86,
              "bb_value": 50.0,
              "bb_rank": 38,
              "k_value": 171.0,
              "k_rank": 17,
              "k_per_9_value": 10.58945,
              "k_per_9_rank": 9,
              "whip_value": 1.1559,
              "whip_rank": 22.0,
              "war_value": 4.75,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9601,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9601,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.984,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9903,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 1.076,
            "adjusted": 8
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 8,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 27,
      "Pitches": 110,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -8 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 5",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was -5."
    },
    {
      "code": "MISSED_SHUTDOWN",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Model missed a shutdown outing",
      "detail": "The pitcher allowed zero earned runs after a projection of 3 ER."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260907_CIN@LAD.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260907

20260907_CIN@LAD

home

Emmet Sheehan

True

5.0

5.2

-1

4/3

1/1

5/10

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "WHIP": 1.2902097902097902,
      "IP": 95.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 20,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.767,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.533,
      "last_start_IP": 2.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.1156,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9902,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0566,
      "walk_factor": 0.962,
      "homer_factor": 1.0647,
      "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 26.2,
      "bb_percent": 7.3,
      "woba": 0.346,
      "xwoba": 0.308,
      "barrel_percent": 10.5,
      "hard_hit_percent": 39.1,
      "whiff_percent": 30.8
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 668,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 20.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8,
        "prior_weight": 0.2
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "686218",
      "report_date": "20260907",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 20,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 22.2,
            "ER": 15.0,
            "R": 16.0,
            "H": 23.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 27.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 102.0,
            "Pitches": 429.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.2,
            "H": 4.6,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 5.4,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 20.4,
            "Pitches": 85.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.9559,
            "WHIP": 1.3676,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.66176,
            "H_per_IP": 1.01471,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.35294,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.19118,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.22059
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 43.2,
            "ER": 29.0,
            "R": 30.0,
            "H": 43.0,
            "BB": 16.0,
            "SO": 49.0,
            "HR": 11.0,
            "BF": 195.0,
            "Pitches": 821.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 2.9,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 4.3,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 4.9,
            "HR": 1.1,
            "BF": 19.5,
            "Pitches": 82.1
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.9771,
            "WHIP": 1.3511,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.66412,
            "H_per_IP": 0.98473,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.36641,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.12214,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.25191
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 20,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 95.1,
            "ER": 56.0,
            "R": 57.0,
            "H": 93.0,
            "BB": 30.0,
            "SO": 108.0,
            "HR": 20.0,
            "BF": 412.0,
            "Pitches": 1698.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.8,
            "R": 2.85,
            "H": 4.65,
            "BB": 1.5,
            "SO": 5.4,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 20.6,
            "Pitches": 84.9
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.2867,
            "WHIP": 1.2902,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.58741,
            "H_per_IP": 0.97552,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.31469,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.13287,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.20979
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.826,
        "predicted_H": 4.535,
        "predicted_BB": 1.621,
        "predicted_SO": 5.086,
        "predicted_HR": 0.973,
        "predicted_ERA": 5.5624,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.346
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4345,
      "form_weight": 0.5655,
      "form_reliability": 0.8,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 20.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8,
        "prior_weight": 0.2
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.2,
          "form": 4.2,
          "final": 4.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.826,
          "final": 2.4671,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 4.535,
          "final": 4.3025,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.621,
          "final": 1.3512,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.086,
          "final": 5.0486,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.973,
          "final": 0.9847,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 5.5624,
          "final": 5.5624,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.346,
          "final": 1.346,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 43.2,
        "ER": 29,
        "H": 43,
        "BB": 16,
        "SO": 49,
        "HR": 11,
        "ERA": 5.97709923664122,
        "WHIP": 1.3511450381679388,
        "K9": 10.099236641221372,
        "HR9": 2.2671755725190836,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 1,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-02T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.1801235766872145,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 20.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8,
          "prior_weight": 0.2
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 4,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 5,
          "predicted_HR": 1
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "686218",
      "player_name": "Emmet Sheehan",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "LAD",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.6667,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.3333,
              "percent_delta": 0.0714,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.6667,
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              "percent_delta": 0.0714,
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              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.6667,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.3333,
            "percent_delta": 0.0714,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 0,
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          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.6667,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.3333,
            "percent_delta": 0.0714,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "LAD",
        "games": 143,
        "wins": 86,
        "losses": 57,
        "win_pct": 0.6014,
        "runs_scored": 705.0,
        "runs_allowed": 553.0,
        "run_differential": 152.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.0629,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.9301,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8671,
        "offense_index": 1.0976,
        "defense_index": 1.1615,
        "current_streak": "W4",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1,
          "run_differential": 3.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.2513
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "CIN",
        "games": 143,
        "wins": 69,
        "losses": 74,
        "win_pct": 0.4825,
        "runs_scored": 605.0,
        "runs_allowed": 710.0,
        "run_differential": -105.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.7343,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.2308,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.965,
        "offense_index": 0.9419,
        "defense_index": 0.9046,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 7.1,
          "run_differential": -4.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0348
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.2861,
        "offense_edge": 0.0976,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0581,
        "defense_strength": 0.1615,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0954,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0186,
        "run_prevention": 0.9602,
        "strikeout": 1.0132
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "686218",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "686218",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 394.0,
            "k_percent": 26.2,
            "bb_percent": 7.3,
            "woba": 0.346,
            "xwoba": 0.308,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 36.1,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 10.5,
            "hard_hit_percent": 39.1,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.0621,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.013,
            "whiff_percent": 30.8,
            "swing_percent": 50.2
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 117.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.61,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9158,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.2808,
            "command_and_miss": 0.65,
            "regression_edge": 1.0857,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.0857,
            "barrel_edge": -0.7556,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.1714,
            "whiff_edge": 0.8143,
            "bb_edge": 0.475,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0587
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "686218",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 91,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 91,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.82797631633119,
              "release_spin_rate": 2255.2077831234624,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 91,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.82797631633119,
                "release_spin_rate": 2255.2077831234624,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.828,
              "release_spin_rate": 2255.2078,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0587,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.4196,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.1156,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9902,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0566,
          "walk_factor": 0.962,
          "homer_factor": 1.0647,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.038,
          "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "686218",
            "espn_id": 4417806,
            "player_name": "Emmet Sheehan",
            "team": "LAD",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 668,
            "espn_total_ranked": 858,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 668,
              "gp_value": 20.0,
              "gp_rank": 388,
              "gs_value": 20.0,
              "gs_rank": 97,
              "qs_value": 5.0,
              "qs_rank": 109,
              "era_value": 5.2867,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 4.0,
              "w_rank": 184,
              "l_value": 8.0,
              "l_rank": 53,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 246,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 350,
              "ip_value": 95.1,
              "ip_rank": 130,
              "h_value": 93.0,
              "h_rank": 123,
              "er_value": 56.0,
              "er_rank": 73,
              "hr_value": 20.0,
              "hr_rank": 35,
              "bb_value": 30.0,
              "bb_rank": 160,
              "k_value": 108.0,
              "k_rank": 87,
              "k_per_9_value": 10.195805,
              "k_per_9_rank": 18,
              "whip_value": 1.2902,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": -0.21,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9902,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9902,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.962,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0647,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0566,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 20,
      "Pitches": 83,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260907_CIN@LAD.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260907

20260907_CLE@BAL

away

Joey Cantillo

True

4.2

2.1

-7

2/3

0/5

6/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.811764705882353,
      "WHIP": 1.4752941176470589,
      "IP": 141.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 29,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.885,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.6,
      "last_start_IP": 5.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0741,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9937,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0406,
      "walk_factor": 1.05,
      "homer_factor": 1.0184,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 24.5,
      "bb_percent": 11.7,
      "woba": 0.333,
      "xwoba": 0.31,
      "barrel_percent": 7.7,
      "hard_hit_percent": 39.4,
      "whiff_percent": 29.7
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 198,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 29.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8529,
        "prior_weight": 0.1471
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "676282",
      "report_date": "20260907",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 29,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 23.0,
            "ER": 9.0,
            "R": 15.0,
            "H": 19.0,
            "BB": 16.0,
            "SO": 22.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 101.0,
            "Pitches": 401.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 3.8,
            "BB": 3.2,
            "SO": 4.4,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 20.2,
            "Pitches": 80.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.5217,
            "WHIP": 1.5217,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.3913,
            "H_per_IP": 0.82609,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.69565,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.95652,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.04348
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 45.2,
            "ER": 21.0,
            "R": 30.0,
            "H": 51.0,
            "BB": 25.0,
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          },
          "per_game": {
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          "rates": {
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        },
        "season": {
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          "per_game": {
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          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.4753,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.42353,
            "H_per_IP": 0.96706,
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            "SO_per_IP": 1.06588,
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      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
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        "predicted_BB": 2.701,
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "prior_size": 5.0,
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
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          "form": 2.046,
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
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        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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        "predicted_SO": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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          "final": 3.8984,
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
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          "form": 1.5303,
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
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      "pitching": {
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      "fielding": {
        "errors": 2,
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-02T00:00:00"
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    "recent_form_boost": 0.9811293158079589,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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          "prior_size": 5.0,
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "676282",
      "player_name": "Joey Cantillo",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CLE",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
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            "changed_metrics": 0,
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          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          },
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
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        ],
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          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "CLE",
        "games": 144,
        "wins": 73,
        "losses": 71,
        "win_pct": 0.5069,
        "runs_scored": 580.0,
        "runs_allowed": 594.0,
        "run_differential": -14.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.0972,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0278,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.125,
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        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "win_pct": 0.5,
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          "run_differential": -10.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0061
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "BAL",
        "games": 144,
        "wins": 69,
        "losses": 75,
        "win_pct": 0.4792,
        "runs_scored": 641.0,
        "runs_allowed": 670.0,
        "run_differential": -29.0,
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        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4514,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6528,
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        "current_streak": "L6",
        "recent": {
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          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7,
          "run_differential": -5.0
        },
        "available": true,
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      },
      "edges": {
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        "offense_edge": -0.1022,
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        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0058,
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        "strikeout": 1.0028
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "676282",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "676282",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 538.0,
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            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.7,
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            "avg_best_speed": 76.8797,
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          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 117.0,
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            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.61,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9158,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
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          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.069,
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            "regression_edge": 0.6571,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.0286,
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            "hard_hit_edge": -0.2143,
            "whiff_edge": 0.6571,
            "bb_edge": -0.625,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.2755
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "676282",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 66,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 66,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 84.95762368108332,
              "release_spin_rate": 2024.6855383454645,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
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              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
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            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
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                "pitches": 66,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
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                "spin_axis": null,
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                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
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                "release_extension": 0.0,
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                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
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            ],
            "summary": {
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            "components": {
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0741,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
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          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "espn_id": 42488,
            "player_name": "Joey Cantillo",
            "team": "CLE",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 198,
            "espn_total_ranked": 858,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 198,
              "gp_value": 29.0,
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              "era_rank": null,
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              "w_rank": 39,
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              "l_rank": 53,
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              "hld_rank": 350,
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              "k_rank": 29,
              "k_per_9_value": 9.592941,
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              "whip_value": 1.4752,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.91,
              "war_rank": null
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            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9937,
            "adjusted": 2
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          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9937,
            "adjusted": 4
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          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.05,
            "adjusted": 3
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          "predicted_HR": {
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            "original": 5.0,
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    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
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      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
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      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 16,
      "Pitches": 77,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
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  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +2."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -7 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was +5."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260907_CLE@BAL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260907

20260907_CLE@BAL

home

Trevor Rogers

True

5.2

7.1

-2

6/6

3/0

3/6

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "ERA": 4.302540415704388,
      "WHIP": 1.233256351039261,
      "IP": 144.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 26,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.551,
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      "last_start_IP": 6.2,
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      "effective_weights": {
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          "per_game": {
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        },
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          },
          "per_game": {
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          "rates": {
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        },
        "season": {
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          "per_game": {
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            "SO_per_IP": 0.91455,
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    "model_form_blend_trace": {
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      "adaptive_parameters": {
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "prior_size": 5.0,
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
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          "form": 2.77,
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        "predicted_H": {
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        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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          "form": 1.199,
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        "predicted_SO": {
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          "form": 6.227,
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        "predicted_HR": {
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          "form": 0.82,
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        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.3247,
          "final": 4.3247,
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        "predicted_WHIP": {
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          "form": 1.2124,
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    "recent_form_analysis": {
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        "RBI": 0,
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        "AVG": 0,
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        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
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      "pitching": {
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        "BB": 8,
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        "ERA": 3.7499999999999996,
        "WHIP": 1.1166666666666665,
        "K9": 10.049999999999999,
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        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 7,
        "dominant_form": false,
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      "fielding": {
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        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-02T00:00:00"
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    "recent_form_boost": 0.9237129532775452,
    "stat_evolution": [
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        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "669432",
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      "team": "BAL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
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          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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            {
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
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          "has_material_change": true,
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
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        "wins": 69,
        "losses": 75,
        "win_pct": 0.4792,
        "runs_scored": 641.0,
        "runs_allowed": 670.0,
        "run_differential": -29.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2014,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4514,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6528,
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        "recent": {
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          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7,
          "run_differential": -5.0
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        "available": true,
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      "opponent": {
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        "games": 144,
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        "losses": 71,
        "win_pct": 0.5069,
        "runs_scored": 580.0,
        "runs_allowed": 594.0,
        "run_differential": -14.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.0972,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0278,
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          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7,
          "run_differential": -10.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0061
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      "edges": {
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        "offense_edge": -0.0077,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.1022,
        "defense_strength": -0.0358,
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        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
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      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0002,
        "run_prevention": 0.9908,
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      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "669432",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "669432",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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            "k_percent": 21.9,
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            "woba": 0.309,
            "xwoba": 0.3,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 32.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.0,
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            "avg_best_speed": 77.5404,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9147,
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          "league_medians": {
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            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
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            "avg_best_speed": 77.61,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9158,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
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          "components": {
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            "regression_edge": 0.2571,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.3143,
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            "hard_hit_edge": 0.0143,
            "whiff_edge": -0.2,
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            "pitch_design_score": -0.039
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "669432",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 90,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 90,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.18055651401573,
              "release_spin_rate": 2193.8218174875824,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
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                "pitches": 90,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.18055651401573,
                "release_spin_rate": 2193.8218174875824,
                "spin_axis": null,
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                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.1806,
              "release_spin_rate": 2193.8218,
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              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
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              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
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            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.039,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
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              "velocity_edge": -0.2785,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.1413,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.988,
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          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_id": "669432",
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            "player_name": "Trevor Rogers",
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            "espn_rank": 134,
            "espn_total_ranked": 858,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 134,
              "gp_value": 26.0,
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              "gs_value": 26.0,
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              "qs_value": 13.0,
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              "era_value": 4.3025,
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              "w_value": 9.0,
              "w_rank": 39,
              "l_value": 9.0,
              "l_rank": 28,
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              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 350,
              "ip_value": 144.1,
              "ip_rank": 49,
              "h_value": 141.0,
              "h_rank": 29,
              "er_value": 69.0,
              "er_rank": 32,
              "hr_value": 16.0,
              "hr_rank": 79,
              "bb_value": 37.0,
              "bb_rank": 104,
              "k_value": 132.0,
              "k_rank": 51,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.230947,
              "k_per_9_rank": 28,
              "whip_value": 1.2332,
              "whip_rank": 32.0,
              "war_value": 1.34,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.988,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 0.988,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.938,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9882,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 0.9914,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 3,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 27,
      "Pitches": 113,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260907_CLE@BAL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260907

20260907_LAA@BOS

away

Grayson Rodriguez

True

5.0

4.0

-3

4/6

0/4

5/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 6.0257510729613735,
      "WHIP": 1.5193133047210299,
      "IP": 77.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 16,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.854,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.333,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.5603,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0476,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9857,
      "walk_factor": 1.006,
      "homer_factor": 1.1237,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 20.7,
      "bb_percent": 9.5,
      "woba": 0.362,
      "xwoba": 0.353,
      "barrel_percent": 9.3,
      "hard_hit_percent": 46.4,
      "whiff_percent": 23.9
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 834,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 16.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7619,
        "prior_weight": 0.2381
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "680570",
      "report_date": "20260907",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 16,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 26.2,
            "ER": 11.0,
            "R": 14.0,
            "H": 26.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 30.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 114.0,
            "Pitches": 465.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.2,
            "R": 2.8,
            "H": 5.2,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 6.0,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 22.8,
            "Pitches": 93.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.7125,
            "WHIP": 1.3875,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.4125,
            "H_per_IP": 0.975,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.4125,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.125,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1125
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 52.0,
            "ER": 29.0,
            "R": 32.0,
            "H": 53.0,
            "BB": 18.0,
            "SO": 48.0,
            "HR": 8.0,
            "BF": 225.0,
            "Pitches": 907.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.9,
            "R": 3.2,
            "H": 5.3,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 4.8,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 22.5,
            "Pitches": 90.7
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.0192,
            "WHIP": 1.3654,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.55769,
            "H_per_IP": 1.01923,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.34615,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.92308,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15385
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 16,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 77.2,
            "ER": 52.0,
            "R": 57.0,
            "H": 85.0,
            "BB": 33.0,
            "SO": 72.0,
            "HR": 12.0,
            "BF": 348.0,
            "Pitches": 1401.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 3.25,
            "R": 3.5625,
            "H": 5.3125,
            "BB": 2.0625,
            "SO": 4.5,
            "HR": 0.75,
            "BF": 21.75,
            "Pitches": 87.5625
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.0258,
            "WHIP": 1.5193,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.66953,
            "H_per_IP": 1.09442,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.42489,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.92704,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15451
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.659,
        "predicted_H": 5.226,
        "predicted_BB": 2.014,
        "predicted_SO": 5.186,
        "predicted_HR": 0.718,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.5995,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3915
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4506,
      "form_weight": 0.5494,
      "form_reliability": 0.7619,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 16.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7619,
        "prior_weight": 0.2381
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.659,
          "final": 2.3621,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 5.226,
          "final": 4.223,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 2.014,
          "final": 1.1065,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.186,
          "final": 5.1022,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 0.718,
          "final": 1.2957,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.5995,
          "final": 4.5995,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3915,
          "final": 1.3915,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 52.0,
        "ER": 29,
        "H": 53,
        "BB": 18,
        "SO": 48,
        "HR": 8,
        "ERA": 5.019230769230768,
        "WHIP": 1.3653846153846152,
        "K9": 8.307692307692307,
        "HR9": 1.3846153846153844,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 2,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-01T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0727193635339554,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 16.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7619,
          "prior_weight": 0.2381
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_quality_floor",
        "description": "Weak starter floor restored expected damage from recent form instead of assigning it to zero-inning bullpen rows.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 4,
          "predicted_BB": 0,
          "predicted_SO": 5,
          "predicted_HR": 2
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "680570",
      "player_name": "Grayson Rodriguez",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "LAA",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_quality_floor",
          "description": "Weak starter floor restored expected damage from recent form instead of assigning it to zero-inning bullpen rows.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.5,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.3333,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
            "boosted_metrics": 2,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 2,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
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              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.5,
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              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
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              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
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            "percent_delta": 0.5,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 2.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 2,
          "boosted_metrics": 2,
          "deboosted_metrics": 0,
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          "worse_metrics": 2,
          "biggest_boost": {
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            "percent_delta": 0.5,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "LAA",
        "games": 143,
        "wins": 54,
        "losses": 89,
        "win_pct": 0.3776,
        "runs_scored": 577.0,
        "runs_allowed": 654.0,
        "run_differential": -77.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.5385,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.035,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5734,
        "offense_index": 0.8994,
        "defense_index": 0.9809,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 2,
          "losses": 8,
          "win_pct": 0.2,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.5,
          "run_differential": -3.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.2751
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "BOS",
        "games": 144,
        "wins": 79,
        "losses": 65,
        "win_pct": 0.5486,
        "runs_scored": 642.0,
        "runs_allowed": 556.0,
        "run_differential": 86.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.5972,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4583,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8611,
        "offense_index": 0.9938,
        "defense_index": 1.1619,
        "current_streak": "W4",
        "recent": {
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          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.6,
          "run_differential": -14.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1495
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.4246,
        "offense_edge": -0.1006,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0062,
        "defense_strength": -0.0191,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1619,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.4
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9827,
        "run_prevention": 1.0221,
        "strikeout": 0.9878
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "680570",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "680570",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 259.0,
            "k_percent": 20.7,
            "bb_percent": 9.5,
            "woba": 0.362,
            "xwoba": 0.353,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 36.7,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 9.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 46.4,
            "avg_best_speed": 80.3996,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 95.0662,
            "whiff_percent": 23.9,
            "swing_percent": 49.0
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 117.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.61,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9158,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.973,
            "command_and_miss": -0.1586,
            "regression_edge": 0.2571,
            "xwoba_edge": -1.2,
            "barrel_edge": -0.4889,
            "hard_hit_edge": -1.2143,
            "whiff_edge": -0.1714,
            "bb_edge": -0.075,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0018
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "680570",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 90,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 90,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.90981092943103,
              "release_spin_rate": 2190.6226176168993,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 90,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.90981092943103,
                "release_spin_rate": 2190.6226176168993,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.9098,
              "release_spin_rate": 2190.6226,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0018,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.0132,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.5603,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0476,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9857,
          "walk_factor": 1.006,
          "homer_factor": 1.1237,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.009,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "680570",
            "espn_id": 41196,
            "player_name": "Grayson Rodriguez",
            "team": "LAA",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 834,
            "espn_total_ranked": 858,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 834,
              "gp_value": 16.0,
              "gp_rank": 442,
              "gs_value": 16.0,
              "gs_rank": 128,
              "qs_value": 2.0,
              "qs_rank": 157,
              "era_value": 6.0257,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 4.0,
              "w_rank": 184,
              "l_value": 6.0,
              "l_rank": 108,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 246,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 350,
              "ip_value": 77.2,
              "ip_rank": 164,
              "h_value": 85.0,
              "h_rank": 129,
              "er_value": 52.0,
              "er_rank": 95,
              "hr_value": 12.0,
              "hr_rank": 128,
              "bb_value": 33.0,
              "bb_rank": 133,
              "k_value": 72.0,
              "k_rank": 168,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.343348,
              "k_per_9_rank": 27,
              "whip_value": 1.5193,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": -0.93,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0476,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0476,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.006,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.1237,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9857,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 19,
      "Pitches": 86,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +2."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was +4."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260907_LAA@BOS.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260907

20260907_LAA@BOS

home

Brayan Bello

True

4.1

5.0

-2

4/4

2/2

4/7

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 5.068259385665529,
      "WHIP": 1.4641638225255973,
      "IP": 97.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 22,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.458,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.2,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.5001,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0425,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9611,
      "walk_factor": 0.968,
      "homer_factor": 1.0672,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 16.2,
      "bb_percent": 7.6,
      "woba": 0.335,
      "xwoba": 0.355,
      "barrel_percent": 7.7,
      "hard_hit_percent": 41.2,
      "whiff_percent": 24.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 801,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 22.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8148,
        "prior_weight": 0.1852
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "678394",
      "report_date": "20260907",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 22,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 18.0,
            "ER": 11.0,
            "R": 11.0,
            "H": 20.0,
            "BB": 6.0,
            "SO": 10.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 81.0,
            "Pitches": 332.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.2,
            "ER": 2.2,
            "R": 2.2,
            "H": 4.0,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 2.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 16.2,
            "Pitches": 66.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.5,
            "WHIP": 1.4444,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.61111,
            "H_per_IP": 1.11111,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.33333,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.55556,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 36.2,
            "ER": 12.0,
            "R": 13.0,
            "H": 32.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 26.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 150.0,
            "Pitches": 586.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.2,
            "ER": 1.2,
            "R": 1.3,
            "H": 3.2,
            "BB": 0.9,
            "SO": 2.6,
            "HR": 0.1,
            "BF": 15.0,
            "Pitches": 58.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.9455,
            "WHIP": 1.1182,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.32727,
            "H_per_IP": 0.87273,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.24545,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.70909,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.02727
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 22,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 97.2,
            "ER": 55.0,
            "R": 60.0,
            "H": 110.0,
            "BB": 33.0,
            "SO": 70.0,
            "HR": 11.0,
            "BF": 432.0,
            "Pitches": 1633.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 2.5,
            "R": 2.7273,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 1.5,
            "SO": 3.1818,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 19.6364,
            "Pitches": 74.2273
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.0683,
            "WHIP": 1.4642,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.56314,
            "H_per_IP": 1.12628,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.33788,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.71672,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11263
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.0,
        "predicted_ER": 1.956,
        "predicted_H": 3.977,
        "predicted_BB": 1.233,
        "predicted_SO": 2.716,
        "predicted_HR": 0.208,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.5148,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3362
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4282,
      "form_weight": 0.5718,
      "form_reliability": 0.8148,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 22.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8148,
        "prior_weight": 0.1852
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.1,
          "form": 4.0,
          "final": 4.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.956,
          "final": 1.9748,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 3.977,
          "final": 3.9868,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.233,
          "final": 1.5615,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.716,
          "final": 3.2659,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.208,
          "final": 0.5472,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.5148,
          "final": 4.5148,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3362,
          "final": 1.3362,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 36.2,
        "ER": 12,
        "H": 32,
        "BB": 9,
        "SO": 26,
        "HR": 1,
        "ERA": 2.945454545454545,
        "WHIP": 1.118181818181818,
        "K9": 6.381818181818181,
        "HR9": 0.24545454545454543,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-02T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8332394684290604,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 22.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8148,
          "prior_weight": 0.1852
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "678394",
      "player_name": "Brayan Bello",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "BOS",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.1,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.3333,
              "after": 4.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0538,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
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            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.3333,
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              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0538,
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              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            "delta": 0.0,
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            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 4.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.3333,
            "after": 4.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0538,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.3333,
            "after": 4.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0538,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "BOS",
        "games": 144,
        "wins": 79,
        "losses": 65,
        "win_pct": 0.5486,
        "runs_scored": 642.0,
        "runs_allowed": 556.0,
        "run_differential": 86.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.5972,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4583,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8611,
        "offense_index": 0.9938,
        "defense_index": 1.1619,
        "current_streak": "W4",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.6,
          "run_differential": -14.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1495
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "LAA",
        "games": 143,
        "wins": 54,
        "losses": 89,
        "win_pct": 0.3776,
        "runs_scored": 577.0,
        "runs_allowed": 654.0,
        "run_differential": -77.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.5385,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.035,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5734,
        "offense_index": 0.8994,
        "defense_index": 0.9809,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 2,
          "losses": 8,
          "win_pct": 0.2,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.5,
          "run_differential": -3.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.2751
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.4246,
        "offense_edge": -0.0062,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.1006,
        "defense_strength": 0.1619,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0191,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.4
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0259,
        "run_prevention": 0.9465,
        "strikeout": 1.0208
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "678394",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "678394",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 382.0,
            "k_percent": 16.2,
            "bb_percent": 7.6,
            "woba": 0.335,
            "xwoba": 0.355,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 32.8,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.7,
            "hard_hit_percent": 41.2,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.9687,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.8279,
            "whiff_percent": 24.1,
            "swing_percent": 49.3
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 117.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.61,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9158,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.6417,
            "command_and_miss": -0.3429,
            "regression_edge": -0.5714,
            "xwoba_edge": -1.2571,
            "barrel_edge": -0.1333,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.4714,
            "whiff_edge": -0.1429,
            "bb_edge": 0.4,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0699
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "678394",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 53,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 53,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 91.12459672478103,
              "release_spin_rate": 2068.0313686386917,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 53,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 91.12459672478103,
                "release_spin_rate": 2068.0313686386917,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 91.1246,
              "release_spin_rate": 2068.0314,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0699,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.4991,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.5001,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0425,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9611,
          "walk_factor": 0.968,
          "homer_factor": 1.0672,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.02,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "678394",
            "espn_id": 4720856,
            "player_name": "Brayan Bello",
            "team": "BOS",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 801,
            "espn_total_ranked": 858,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 801,
              "gp_value": 22.0,
              "gp_rank": 358,
              "gs_value": 8.0,
              "gs_rank": 185,
              "qs_value": 1.0,
              "qs_rank": 176,
              "era_value": 5.0682,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 5.0,
              "w_rank": 142,
              "l_value": 7.0,
              "l_rank": 84,
              "sv_value": 1.0,
              "sv_rank": 137,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 350,
              "ip_value": 97.2,
              "ip_rank": 125,
              "h_value": 110.0,
              "h_rank": 97,
              "er_value": 55.0,
              "er_rank": 82,
              "hr_value": 11.0,
              "hr_rank": 143,
              "bb_value": 33.0,
              "bb_rank": 133,
              "k_value": 70.0,
              "k_rank": 172,
              "k_per_9_value": 6.4505124,
              "k_per_9_rank": 37,
              "whip_value": 1.4641,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": -0.63,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0425,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 8.0,
            "factor": 1.0425,
            "adjusted": 8
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.968,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0672,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9611,
            "adjusted": 3
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.1,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 19,
      "Pitches": 75,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260907_LAA@BOS.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260907

20260907_MIN@DET

away

Joe Ryan

True

5.2

4.0

-5

-2

7/3

1/1

6/7

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.6525198938992043,
      "WHIP": 1.1379310344827587,
      "IP": 125.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 23,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.464,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.667,
      "last_start_IP": 5.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.2029,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9828,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0274,
      "walk_factor": 0.92,
      "homer_factor": 1.067,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 26.4,
      "bb_percent": 5.2,
      "woba": 0.299,
      "xwoba": 0.29,
      "barrel_percent": 10.5,
      "hard_hit_percent": 42.2,
      "whiff_percent": 25.5
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 79,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 23.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8214,
        "prior_weight": 0.1786
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "657746",
      "report_date": "20260907",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 23,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 28.1,
            "ER": 18.0,
            "R": 19.0,
            "H": 34.0,
            "BB": 5.0,
            "SO": 25.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 123.0,
            "Pitches": 470.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 3.6,
            "R": 3.8,
            "H": 6.8,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 5.0,
            "HR": 1.4,
            "BF": 24.6,
            "Pitches": 94.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.7176,
            "WHIP": 1.3765,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.63529,
            "H_per_IP": 1.2,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.17647,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.88235,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.24706
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 55.1,
            "ER": 26.0,
            "R": 33.0,
            "H": 62.0,
            "BB": 13.0,
            "SO": 59.0,
            "HR": 11.0,
            "BF": 241.0,
            "Pitches": 960.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.6,
            "R": 3.3,
            "H": 6.2,
            "BB": 1.3,
            "SO": 5.9,
            "HR": 1.1,
            "BF": 24.1,
            "Pitches": 96.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.2289,
            "WHIP": 1.3554,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.46988,
            "H_per_IP": 1.12048,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.23494,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.06627,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1988
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 23,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 125.2,
            "ER": 51.0,
            "R": 63.0,
            "H": 116.0,
            "BB": 27.0,
            "SO": 138.0,
            "HR": 17.0,
            "BF": 523.0,
            "Pitches": 2089.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.2174,
            "R": 2.7391,
            "H": 5.0435,
            "BB": 1.1739,
            "SO": 6.0,
            "HR": 0.7391,
            "BF": 22.7391,
            "Pitches": 90.8261
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.6525,
            "WHIP": 1.1379,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.40584,
            "H_per_IP": 0.92308,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.21485,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.09814,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13528
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.951,
        "predicted_H": 6.123,
        "predicted_BB": 1.316,
        "predicted_SO": 5.504,
        "predicted_HR": 1.105,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.7318,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3256
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4255,
      "form_weight": 0.5745,
      "form_reliability": 0.8214,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 23.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8214,
        "prior_weight": 0.1786
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.951,
          "final": 3.3973,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 6.123,
          "final": 6.4961,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.316,
          "final": 1.1816,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 5.504,
          "final": 5.715,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.105,
          "final": 0.6349,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.7318,
          "final": 4.7318,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3256,
          "final": 1.3256,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 55.1,
        "ER": 26,
        "H": 62,
        "BB": 13,
        "SO": 59,
        "HR": 11,
        "ERA": 4.228915662650603,
        "WHIP": 1.3554216867469882,
        "K9": 9.596385542168676,
        "HR9": 1.7891566265060241,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 4,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-04T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9835598408277462,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 7.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 6.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 23.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8214,
          "prior_weight": 0.1786
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "657746",
      "player_name": "Joe Ryan",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "MIN",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_R": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
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              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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          },
          {
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          },
          {
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          }
        ],
        "summary": {
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            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
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        "games": 143,
        "wins": 68,
        "losses": 75,
        "win_pct": 0.4755,
        "runs_scored": 666.0,
        "runs_allowed": 714.0,
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        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3357,
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        "available": true,
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      "opponent": {
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          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.5,
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "657746",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "657746",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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          "league_medians": {
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          "components": {
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            "bb_edge": 1.0,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0658
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "657746",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 92,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 92,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.70279077172188,
              "release_spin_rate": 2379.4293929584433,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
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            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 92,
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                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
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                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
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              "release_spin_rate": 2379.4294,
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              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
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              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
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            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0658,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
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              "velocity_edge": -0.4697,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.2029,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9828,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0274,
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          "homer_factor": 1.067,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.009,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_id": "657746",
            "espn_id": 42450,
            "player_name": "Joe Ryan",
            "team": "MIN",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 79,
            "espn_total_ranked": 858,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 79,
              "gp_value": 23.0,
              "gp_rank": 344,
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              "w_value": 6.0,
              "w_rank": 102,
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              "l_rank": 53,
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              "er_rank": 100,
              "hr_value": 17.0,
              "hr_rank": 65,
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              "bb_rank": 190,
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              "k_rank": 42,
              "k_per_9_value": 9.883289,
              "k_per_9_rank": 13,
              "whip_value": 1.1379,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 1.96,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9828,
            "adjusted": 3
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          "predicted_H": {
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          "predicted_BB": {
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          "predicted_HR": {
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          "predicted_SO": {
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
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      "predicted_H": 7,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
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      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 26,
      "Pitches": 108,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was -4."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260907_MIN@DET.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260907

20260907_MIN@DET

home

Troy Melton

True

6.0

5.2

-1

3/7

2/1

5/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
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      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
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      "woba": 0.279,
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      "barrel_percent": 6.6,
      "hard_hit_percent": 36.9,
      "whiff_percent": 24.5
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 29,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
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      "season_ERA": 2.199,
      "season_WHIP": 1.026,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
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      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
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      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "675512",
      "report_date": "20260907",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 17,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
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            "SO": 20.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
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            "Pitches": 453.0
          },
          "per_game": {
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            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 24.4,
            "Pitches": 90.6
          },
          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.3412,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.42353,
            "H_per_IP": 1.12941,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.21176,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.70588,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.14118
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
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            "R": 21.0,
            "H": 51.0,
            "BB": 19.0,
            "SO": 52.0,
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          },
          "per_game": {
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          },
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            "SO_per_IP": 0.89143,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08571
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        },
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            "HR": 12.0,
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          },
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            "WHIP": 1.0261,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.2443,
            "H_per_IP": 0.74267,
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            "SO_per_IP": 0.82085,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11726
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
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        "predicted_ER": 2.166,
        "predicted_H": 5.678,
        "predicted_BB": 1.707,
        "predicted_SO": 4.865,
        "predicted_HR": 0.728,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.3126,
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      "adaptive_parameters": {
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        },
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        },
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        },
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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          "final": 3.3126,
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        },
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          "final": 1.2551,
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        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
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        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
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        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
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        "trend": "stable"
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      "pitching": {
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        "H": 51,
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        "SO": 52,
        "HR": 5,
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        "K9": 8.022857142857143,
        "HR9": 0.7714285714285715,
        "games_pitched": 10,
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        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-01T00:00:00"
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    "recent_form_boost": 0.7642784294680216,
    "stat_evolution": [
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        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 5.0,
          "predicted_H": 6.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 3.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
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          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
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          "prior_weight": 0.2273
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 6,
          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 5,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "675512",
      "player_name": "Troy Melton",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "DET",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": -3.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.6,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 2.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.6667,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 2,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 2.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.6667,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": -3.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.6,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -3.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.5,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 1,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -3.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.5,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": -3.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.6,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": -3.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.5,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 2.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.6667,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 3,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 2,
          "better_metrics": 3,
          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 2.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.6667,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": -3.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.6,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "DET",
        "games": 143,
        "wins": 65,
        "losses": 78,
        "win_pct": 0.4545,
        "runs_scored": 627.0,
        "runs_allowed": 577.0,
        "run_differential": 50.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.3497,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3846,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.035,
        "offense_index": 0.977,
        "defense_index": 1.1122,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.5,
          "run_differential": -20.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0658
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "MIN",
        "games": 143,
        "wins": 68,
        "losses": 75,
        "win_pct": 0.4755,
        "runs_scored": 666.0,
        "runs_allowed": 714.0,
        "run_differential": -48.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3357,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.6573,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.993,
        "offense_index": 1.0378,
        "defense_index": 0.8988,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.0,
          "run_differential": 5.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.097
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0312,
        "offense_edge": -0.023,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0378,
        "defense_strength": 0.1122,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.1012,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0031,
        "run_prevention": 0.9933,
        "strikeout": 0.9979
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "675512",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "675512",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 329.0,
            "k_percent": 20.6,
            "bb_percent": 7.1,
            "woba": 0.279,
            "xwoba": 0.293,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 29.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.6,
            "hard_hit_percent": 36.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.4019,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.7207,
            "whiff_percent": 24.5,
            "swing_percent": 50.3
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 117.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.61,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9158,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.4272,
            "command_and_miss": -0.015,
            "regression_edge": -0.4,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.5143,
            "barrel_edge": 0.1111,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.1429,
            "whiff_edge": -0.0857,
            "bb_edge": 0.525,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.1048
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "675512",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 92,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 92,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 91.7475265975609,
              "release_spin_rate": 2195.3043061551607,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 92,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 91.7475265975609,
                "release_spin_rate": 2195.3043061551607,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 91.7475,
              "release_spin_rate": 2195.3043,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.1048,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.7482,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.2037,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9827,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9886,
          "walk_factor": 0.958,
          "homer_factor": 0.97,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.014,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "675512",
            "espn_id": 5294127,
            "player_name": "Troy Melton",
            "team": "DET",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 29,
            "espn_total_ranked": 858,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 29,
              "gp_value": 17.0,
              "gp_rank": 424,
              "gs_value": 17.0,
              "gs_rank": 118,
              "qs_value": 9.0,
              "qs_rank": 64,
              "era_value": 2.1986,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 7.0,
              "w_rank": 82,
              "l_value": 4.0,
              "l_rank": 179,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 246,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 350,
              "ip_value": 102.1,
              "ip_rank": 116,
              "h_value": 76.0,
              "h_rank": 153,
              "er_value": 25.0,
              "er_rank": 236,
              "hr_value": 12.0,
              "hr_rank": 128,
              "bb_value": 29.0,
              "bb_rank": 171,
              "k_value": 84.0,
              "k_rank": 140,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.3876224,
              "k_per_9_rank": 32,
              "whip_value": 1.026,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 3.2,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9827,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 0.9827,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.958,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.97,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9886,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 93,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +2."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +4."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: True; actual quality start: False."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260907_MIN@DET.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260907

20260907_NYM@MIA

away

Jonah Tong

True

3.1

5.0

8/4

1/1

5/7

Last 10 before this game (3 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.6,
      "WHIP": 1.5,
      "IP": 10.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 3,
      "role_avg_IP": 3.333,
      "recent_avg_IP": 3.333,
      "last_start_IP": 3.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.0686,
      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0058,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9774,
      "walk_factor": 1.0513,
      "homer_factor": 0.9717,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 14.9,
      "bb_percent": 14.9,
      "woba": 0.28,
      "xwoba": 0.309,
      "barrel_percent": 6.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 30.3,
      "whiff_percent": 23.4
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 553,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 1.0
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 3.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.375,
        "prior_weight": 0.625
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "804636",
      "report_date": "20260907",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 3,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 3,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 10.0,
            "ER": 4.0,
            "R": 6.0,
            "H": 8.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 7.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 47.0,
            "Pitches": 187.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.1,
            "ER": 1.3333,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 2.6667,
            "BB": 2.3333,
            "SO": 2.3333,
            "HR": 0.3333,
            "BF": 15.6667,
            "Pitches": 62.3333
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.6,
            "WHIP": 1.5,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.4,
            "H_per_IP": 0.8,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.7,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.7,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 3,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 10.0,
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          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.1,
            "ER": 1.3333,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 2.6667,
            "BB": 2.3333,
            "SO": 2.3333,
            "HR": 0.3333,
            "BF": 15.6667,
            "Pitches": 62.3333
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          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.6,
            "WHIP": 1.5,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.4,
            "H_per_IP": 0.8,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.7,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.7,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1
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        },
        "season": {
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          "per_game": {
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            "BB": 2.3333,
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          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.5,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.4,
            "H_per_IP": 0.8,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.7,
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            "HR_per_IP": 0.1
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
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        "predicted_BB": 1.856,
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        "predicted_WHIP": 1.403
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.6141,
      "form_weight": 0.3859,
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      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 3.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.375,
        "prior_weight": 0.625
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      "applied_metrics": {
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          "form": 3.2,
          "final": 4.0,
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
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          "form": 1.733,
          "final": 2.511,
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
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          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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          "form": 3.185,
          "final": 4.2995,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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          "form": 0.484,
          "final": 0.8009,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.1587,
          "final": 4.1587,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
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          "form": 1.403,
          "final": 1.403,
          "source": "form_only"
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
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        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
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        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "insufficient_data"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 10.0,
        "ER": 4,
        "H": 8,
        "BB": 7,
        "SO": 7,
        "HR": 1,
        "ERA": 3.6,
        "WHIP": 1.5,
        "K9": 6.3,
        "HR9": 0.9,
        "games_pitched": 3,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
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      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 3,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 3,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-06-02T00:00:00"
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    "recent_form_boost": 0.9726658921463729,
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        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_H": 8.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
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          "predicted_HR": 1.0
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        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 3.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.375,
          "prior_weight": 0.625
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      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_H": 8,
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "role": "pitcher",
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      "team": "NYM",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
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        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 8.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
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        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            {
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            {
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            {
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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          {
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          {
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          {
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          {
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        ],
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            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
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        "win_pct": 0.4545,
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        "runs_allowed": 644.0,
        "run_differential": -48.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3357,
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        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5035,
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        "recent": {
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          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.8,
          "run_differential": -2.0
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        "available": true,
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      "opponent": {
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        "games": 144,
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        "losses": 72,
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        "runs_scored": 631.0,
        "runs_allowed": 616.0,
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        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1042,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3819,
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          "avg_runs_scored": 4.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.3,
          "run_differential": -4.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0222
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      "edges": {
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        "offense_edge": -0.0709,
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        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0487,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
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      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9985,
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        "strikeout": 1.0001
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "804636",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "804636",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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            "xwoba": 0.309,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 30.3,
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            "avg_best_speed": 81.9393,
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          "league_medians": {
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            "woba": 0.316,
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            "avg_best_speed": 77.61,
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          "components": {
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            "hard_hit_edge": 1.0857,
            "whiff_edge": -0.2429,
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          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "804636",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 52,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 52,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 91.80939849624059,
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              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
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            "pitch_mix": [
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                "pitches": 52,
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                "release_speed": 91.80939849624059,
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                "spin_axis": null,
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                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
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                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 91.8094,
              "release_spin_rate": 2138.4699,
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              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
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            "components": {
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              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.0686,
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          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_name": "Jonah Tong",
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            "espn_rank": 553,
            "espn_total_ranked": 858,
            "metrics": {
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              "qs_rank": 208,
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              "w_rank": 405,
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              "l_rank": 425,
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              "h_rank": 657,
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              "er_rank": 679,
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              "k_rank": 635,
              "k_per_9_value": 6.2999997,
              "k_per_9_rank": 28,
              "whip_value": 1.5,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": -0.05,
              "war_rank": null
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            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0026,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0026,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0231,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9873,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9898,
            "adjusted": 2
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 3.1,
      "predicted_H": 8,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 19,
      "Pitches": 70,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 3 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was -4."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260907_NYM@MIA.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260907

20260907_NYM@MIA

home

Eury Pérez

True

5.1

4.0

-4

7/10

1/3

1/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
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      "role_avg_IP": 5.413,
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      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
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      "barrel_percent": 10.2,
      "hard_hit_percent": 39.2,
      "whiff_percent": 28.9
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    "espn_rank": {
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      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
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            "BB_per_IP": 0.66234,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.93506,
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        },
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          },
          "per_game": {
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      "blend_segments": {},
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        "predicted_H": 4.244,
        "predicted_BB": 2.783,
        "predicted_SO": 5.195,
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        "predicted_ER": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
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        "HR": 0,
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        "AVG": 0,
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      "pitching": {
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      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-02T00:00:00"
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        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
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    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "691587",
      "player_name": "Eury P\u00e9rez",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "MIA",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
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          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
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          "changed_metrics": [],
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          "weights": {},
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        {
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          "step": "current_json_final",
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          "changed_metrics": [
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      "total_change": {
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
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          "pitcher_id": "691587",
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                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 92.8622,
              "release_spin_rate": 2522.0129,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.1672,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 1.1941,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0729,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9938,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0451,
          "walk_factor": 1.028,
          "homer_factor": 1.0617,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.01,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "691587",
            "espn_id": 4917854,
            "player_name": "Eury Perez",
            "team": "MIA",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 104,
            "espn_total_ranked": 858,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 104,
              "gp_value": 25.0,
              "gp_rank": 314,
              "gs_value": 25.0,
              "gs_rank": 57,
              "qs_value": 11.0,
              "qs_rank": 45,
              "era_value": 3.7241,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 7.0,
              "w_rank": 82,
              "l_value": 10.0,
              "l_rank": 16,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 246,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 350,
              "ip_value": 135.1,
              "ip_rank": 66,
              "h_value": 101.0,
              "h_rank": 113,
              "er_value": 56.0,
              "er_rank": 73,
              "hr_value": 17.0,
              "hr_rank": 65,
              "bb_value": 59.0,
              "bb_rank": 15,
              "k_value": 145.0,
              "k_rank": 31,
              "k_per_9_value": 9.642858,
              "k_per_9_rank": 12,
              "whip_value": 1.1822,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 1.66,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9938,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9938,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.028,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0617,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0451,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 7,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 1,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 24,
      "Pitches": 92,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260907_NYM@MIA.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260907

20260907_STL@SF

away

Michael McGreevy

True

5.1

6.2

3/6

2/2

1/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.9705882352941173,
      "WHIP": 1.255656108597285,
      "IP": 147.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 27,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.457,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.4,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.6066,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0516,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9389,
      "walk_factor": 0.948,
      "homer_factor": 1.1095,
      "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 16.8,
      "bb_percent": 6.6,
      "woba": 0.319,
      "xwoba": 0.352,
      "barrel_percent": 9.9,
      "hard_hit_percent": 42.2,
      "whiff_percent": 19.6
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 113,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 27.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
        "prior_weight": 0.1562
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "700241",
      "report_date": "20260907",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 27,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 27.0,
            "ER": 17.0,
            "R": 20.0,
            "H": 31.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 21.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 121.0,
            "Pitches": 468.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 3.4,
            "R": 4.0,
            "H": 6.2,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 4.2,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 24.2,
            "Pitches": 93.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.6667,
            "WHIP": 1.5185,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.62963,
            "H_per_IP": 1.14815,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.37037,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.77778,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.14815
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 52.0,
            "ER": 32.0,
            "R": 36.0,
            "H": 61.0,
            "BB": 18.0,
            "SO": 42.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 231.0,
            "Pitches": 901.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 3.2,
            "R": 3.6,
            "H": 6.1,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 4.2,
            "HR": 0.7,
            "BF": 23.1,
            "Pitches": 90.1
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.5385,
            "WHIP": 1.5192,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.61538,
            "H_per_IP": 1.17308,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.34615,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.80769,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13462
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 27,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 147.1,
            "ER": 65.0,
            "R": 69.0,
            "H": 145.0,
            "BB": 40.0,
            "SO": 102.0,
            "HR": 20.0,
            "BF": 608.0,
            "Pitches": 2399.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.4074,
            "R": 2.5556,
            "H": 5.3704,
            "BB": 1.4815,
            "SO": 3.7778,
            "HR": 0.7407,
            "BF": 22.5185,
            "Pitches": 88.8519
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.9706,
            "WHIP": 1.2557,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.44118,
            "H_per_IP": 0.98416,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.27149,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.69231,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13575
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 3.057,
        "predicted_H": 5.869,
        "predicted_BB": 1.85,
        "predicted_SO": 4.253,
        "predicted_HR": 0.756,
        "predicted_ERA": 5.1594,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.4472
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.416,
      "form_weight": 0.584,
      "form_reliability": 0.8438,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 27.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
        "prior_weight": 0.1562
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.1,
          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 3.057,
          "final": 2.6173,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 5.869,
          "final": 4.6755,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.85,
          "final": 1.9124,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 4.253,
          "final": 2.8998,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 0.756,
          "final": 1.2735,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 5.1594,
          "final": 5.1594,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.4472,
          "final": 1.4472,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 52.0,
        "ER": 32,
        "H": 61,
        "BB": 18,
        "SO": 42,
        "HR": 7,
        "ERA": 5.538461538461538,
        "WHIP": 1.5192307692307692,
        "K9": 7.269230769230769,
        "HR9": 1.2115384615384615,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-01T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.134978978918571,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 1.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 27.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8438,
          "prior_weight": 0.1562
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "700241",
      "player_name": "Michael McGreevy",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "STL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 1.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.1,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 1.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0438,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0438,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0437,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
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          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0437,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "STL",
        "games": 144,
        "wins": 72,
        "losses": 72,
        "win_pct": 0.5,
        "runs_scored": 657.0,
        "runs_allowed": 666.0,
        "run_differential": -9.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.0625,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5625,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.625,
        "offense_index": 1.0153,
        "defense_index": 0.9716,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.8,
          "run_differential": 6.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0274
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "SF",
        "games": 144,
        "wins": 59,
        "losses": 85,
        "win_pct": 0.4097,
        "runs_scored": 603.0,
        "runs_allowed": 678.0,
        "run_differential": -75.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.5208,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1875,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7083,
        "offense_index": 0.9319,
        "defense_index": 0.9544,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.3,
          "run_differential": -6.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1755
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.2029,
        "offense_edge": 0.0153,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0681,
        "defense_strength": -0.0284,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0456,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.01,
        "run_prevention": 0.9818,
        "strikeout": 1.0115
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "700241",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "700241",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 511.0,
            "k_percent": 16.8,
            "bb_percent": 6.6,
            "woba": 0.319,
            "xwoba": 0.352,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.0,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 9.9,
            "hard_hit_percent": 42.2,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.0644,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.7966,
            "whiff_percent": 19.6,
            "swing_percent": 44.6
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 117.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.61,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9158,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.67,
            "command_and_miss": -0.4793,
            "regression_edge": -0.9429,
            "xwoba_edge": -1.1714,
            "barrel_edge": -0.6222,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.6143,
            "whiff_edge": -0.7857,
            "bb_edge": 0.65,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.1565
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "700241",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 98,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 98,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 87.08161246517682,
              "release_spin_rate": 2204.006727677546,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 98,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 87.08161246517682,
                "release_spin_rate": 2204.006727677546,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.0816,
              "release_spin_rate": 2204.0067,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1565,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.1181,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.6066,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0516,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9389,
          "walk_factor": 0.948,
          "homer_factor": 1.1095,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.033,
          "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "700241",
            "espn_id": 4424141,
            "player_name": "Michael McGreevy",
            "team": "STL",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 113,
            "espn_total_ranked": 858,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 113,
              "gp_value": 27.0,
              "gp_rank": 274,
              "gs_value": 27.0,
              "gs_rank": 34,
              "qs_value": 14.0,
              "qs_rank": 22,
              "era_value": 3.9705,
              "era_rank": 33.0,
              "w_value": 6.0,
              "w_rank": 102,
              "l_value": 9.0,
              "l_rank": 28,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 246,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 350,
              "ip_value": 147.1,
              "ip_rank": 44,
              "h_value": 145.0,
              "h_rank": 23,
              "er_value": 65.0,
              "er_rank": 48,
              "hr_value": 20.0,
              "hr_rank": 35,
              "bb_value": 40.0,
              "bb_rank": 80,
              "k_value": 102.0,
              "k_rank": 94,
              "k_per_9_value": 6.230769,
              "k_per_9_rank": 57,
              "whip_value": 1.2556,
              "whip_rank": 33.0,
              "war_value": 1.52,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0516,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0516,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.948,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.1095,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9389,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 1,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 93,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260907_STL@SF.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260907

20260907_STL@SF

home

Logan Webb

True

5.1

6.0

-3

6/3

2/2

5/8

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.20935412026726,
      "WHIP": 1.1625835189309577,
      "IP": 149.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 25,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.987,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.933,
      "last_start_IP": 2.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.0095,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0008,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9589,
      "walk_factor": 0.938,
      "homer_factor": 0.9756,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 19.2,
      "bb_percent": 6.1,
      "woba": 0.29,
      "xwoba": 0.311,
      "barrel_percent": 5.6,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.3,
      "whiff_percent": 20.7
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 139,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 25.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8333,
        "prior_weight": 0.1667
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "657277",
      "report_date": "20260907",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 25,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 24.2,
            "ER": 18.0,
            "R": 18.0,
            "H": 28.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 18.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 111.0,
            "Pitches": 412.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 3.6,
            "R": 3.6,
            "H": 5.6,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 3.6,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 22.2,
            "Pitches": 82.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.5676,
            "WHIP": 1.4189,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.72973,
            "H_per_IP": 1.13514,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.28378,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.72973,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08108
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 56.1,
            "ER": 32.0,
            "R": 32.0,
            "H": 51.0,
            "BB": 14.0,
            "SO": 41.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 239.0,
            "Pitches": 909.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 3.2,
            "R": 3.2,
            "H": 5.1,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 4.1,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 23.9,
            "Pitches": 90.9
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.1124,
            "WHIP": 1.1538,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.56805,
            "H_per_IP": 0.90533,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.24852,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.72781,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07101
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 25,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 149.2,
            "ER": 70.0,
            "R": 73.0,
            "H": 136.0,
            "BB": 38.0,
            "SO": 119.0,
            "HR": 11.0,
            "BF": 621.0,
            "Pitches": 2297.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 2.8,
            "R": 2.92,
            "H": 5.44,
            "BB": 1.52,
            "SO": 4.76,
            "HR": 0.44,
            "BF": 24.84,
            "Pitches": 91.88
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.2094,
            "WHIP": 1.1626,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.46771,
            "H_per_IP": 0.90869,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.2539,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.7951,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0735
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 3.253,
        "predicted_H": 5.435,
        "predicted_BB": 1.534,
        "predicted_SO": 4.198,
        "predicted_HR": 0.475,
        "predicted_ERA": 5.4045,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2865
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4204,
      "form_weight": 0.5796,
      "form_reliability": 0.8333,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 25.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8333,
        "prior_weight": 0.1667
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.1,
          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 3.253,
          "final": 3.5671,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 5.435,
          "final": 5.6725,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.534,
          "final": 1.7299,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.198,
          "final": 4.5352,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 0.475,
          "final": 1.1162,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 5.4045,
          "final": 5.4045,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2865,
          "final": 1.2865,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 56.1,
        "ER": 32,
        "H": 51,
        "BB": 14,
        "SO": 41,
        "HR": 4,
        "ERA": 5.112426035502959,
        "WHIP": 1.153846153846154,
        "K9": 6.550295857988166,
        "HR9": 0.6390532544378699,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 6,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-01T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0779153694511154,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 6.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 25.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8333,
          "prior_weight": 0.1667
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "657277",
      "player_name": "Logan Webb",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "SF",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.1,
            "predicted_R": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0438,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0438,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0437,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
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          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
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            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0437,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "SF",
        "games": 144,
        "wins": 59,
        "losses": 85,
        "win_pct": 0.4097,
        "runs_scored": 603.0,
        "runs_allowed": 678.0,
        "run_differential": -75.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.5208,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1875,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7083,
        "offense_index": 0.9319,
        "defense_index": 0.9544,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.3,
          "run_differential": -6.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1755
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "STL",
        "games": 144,
        "wins": 72,
        "losses": 72,
        "win_pct": 0.5,
        "runs_scored": 657.0,
        "runs_allowed": 666.0,
        "run_differential": -9.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.0625,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5625,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.625,
        "offense_index": 1.0153,
        "defense_index": 0.9716,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.8,
          "run_differential": 6.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0274
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.2029,
        "offense_edge": -0.0681,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0153,
        "defense_strength": -0.0456,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0284,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9899,
        "run_prevention": 1.0172,
        "strikeout": 0.9927
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "657277",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "657277",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 558.0,
            "k_percent": 19.2,
            "bb_percent": 6.1,
            "woba": 0.29,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 31.2,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 5.6,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.3,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.5802,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.818,
            "whiff_percent": 20.7,
            "swing_percent": 47.5
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 117.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.61,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9158,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.2129,
            "command_and_miss": -0.245,
            "regression_edge": -0.6,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.0,
            "barrel_edge": 0.3333,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.0571,
            "whiff_edge": -0.6286,
            "bb_edge": 0.775,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0629
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "657277",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 92,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 92,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.75348866858918,
              "release_spin_rate": 2029.9391366774676,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 92,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.75348866858918,
                "release_spin_rate": 2029.9391366774676,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.7535,
              "release_spin_rate": 2029.9391,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0629,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.4494,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.0095,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0008,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9589,
          "walk_factor": 0.938,
          "homer_factor": 0.9756,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.021,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "657277",
            "espn_id": 41216,
            "player_name": "Logan Webb",
            "team": "SF",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 139,
            "espn_total_ranked": 858,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 139,
              "gp_value": 25.0,
              "gp_rank": 314,
              "gs_value": 25.0,
              "gs_rank": 57,
              "qs_value": 16.0,
              "qs_rank": 13,
              "era_value": 4.2093,
              "era_rank": 41.0,
              "w_value": 8.0,
              "w_rank": 63,
              "l_value": 8.0,
              "l_rank": 53,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 246,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 350,
              "ip_value": 149.2,
              "ip_rank": 41,
              "h_value": 136.0,
              "h_rank": 40,
              "er_value": 70.0,
              "er_rank": 25,
              "hr_value": 11.0,
              "hr_rank": 143,
              "bb_value": 38.0,
              "bb_rank": 94,
              "k_value": 119.0,
              "k_rank": 70,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.1559024,
              "k_per_9_rank": 46,
              "whip_value": 1.1625,
              "whip_rank": 24.0,
              "war_value": 1.28,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0008,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0008,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.938,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9756,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9589,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 25,
      "Pitches": 105,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260907_STL@SF.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260907

20260907_TOR@OAK

away

Dylan Cease

True

6.0

5.0

-3

3/4

1/2

7/6

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.2452025586353943,
      "WHIP": 1.0362473347547974,
      "IP": 156.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 26,
      "role_avg_IP": 6.013,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.0,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.9565,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9187,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.1269,
      "walk_factor": 1.026,
      "homer_factor": 0.885,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 35.5,
      "bb_percent": 10.5,
      "woba": 0.245,
      "xwoba": 0.257,
      "barrel_percent": 5.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 32.1,
      "whiff_percent": 33.8
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 3,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 26.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8387,
        "prior_weight": 0.1613
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "656302",
      "report_date": "20260907",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 26,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 30.0,
            "ER": 7.0,
            "R": 7.0,
            "H": 17.0,
            "BB": 13.0,
            "SO": 37.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 117.0,
            "Pitches": 494.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.4,
            "R": 1.4,
            "H": 3.4,
            "BB": 2.6,
            "SO": 7.4,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 23.4,
            "Pitches": 98.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.1,
            "WHIP": 1.0,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.23333,
            "H_per_IP": 0.56667,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.43333,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.23333,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 66.0,
            "ER": 11.0,
            "R": 13.0,
            "H": 31.0,
            "BB": 24.0,
            "SO": 84.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 249.0,
            "Pitches": 1033.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.2,
            "ER": 1.1,
            "R": 1.3,
            "H": 3.1,
            "BB": 2.4,
            "SO": 8.4,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 24.9,
            "Pitches": 103.3
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.5,
            "WHIP": 0.8333,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.16667,
            "H_per_IP": 0.4697,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.36364,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.27273,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07576
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 26,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 156.1,
            "ER": 39.0,
            "R": 44.0,
            "H": 97.0,
            "BB": 65.0,
            "SO": 221.0,
            "HR": 10.0,
            "BF": 622.0,
            "Pitches": 2633.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.5,
            "R": 1.6923,
            "H": 3.7308,
            "BB": 2.5,
            "SO": 8.5,
            "HR": 0.3846,
            "BF": 23.9231,
            "Pitches": 101.2692
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.2452,
            "WHIP": 1.0362,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.24947,
            "H_per_IP": 0.62047,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.41578,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.41365,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.06397
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.1,
        "predicted_ER": 1.607,
        "predicted_H": 3.796,
        "predicted_BB": 2.479,
        "predicted_SO": 7.606,
        "predicted_HR": 0.584,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.3344,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.0128
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4181,
      "form_weight": 0.5819,
      "form_reliability": 0.8387,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 26.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8387,
        "prior_weight": 0.1613
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 6.1,
          "final": 6.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.607,
          "final": 1.7713,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 3.796,
          "final": 3.4632,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.479,
          "final": 1.8606,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 7.606,
          "final": 6.0982,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.584,
          "final": 0.3398,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.3344,
          "final": 2.3344,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.0128,
          "final": 1.0128,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 66.0,
        "ER": 11,
        "H": 31,
        "BB": 24,
        "SO": 84,
        "HR": 5,
        "ERA": 1.5,
        "WHIP": 0.8333333333333334,
        "K9": 11.454545454545455,
        "HR9": 0.6818181818181818,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 9,
        "dominant_form": true,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-02T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.688030639818689,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 26.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8387,
          "prior_weight": 0.1613
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 3,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 8,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "656302",
      "player_name": "Dylan Cease",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "TOR",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
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            },
            {
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          ],
          "summary": {
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            "biggest_boost": {
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            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
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          },
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        ],
        "summary": {
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          },
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
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        "win_pct": 0.5,
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        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2639,
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        "losses": 87,
        "win_pct": 0.3958,
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        "run_differential_per_game": -1.3056,
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          "avg_runs_scored": 4.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9,
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        },
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      "edges": {
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        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.3
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      "player_factors": {
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "656302",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "656302",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
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            "avg_best_speed": 73.194,
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            "whiff_percent": 33.8,
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          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 117.0,
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            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
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            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
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          "components": {
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            "regression_edge": -0.3429,
            "xwoba_edge": 1.5429,
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            "hard_hit_edge": 0.8286,
            "whiff_edge": 1.2429,
            "bb_edge": -0.325,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.061
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "656302",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 104,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 104,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.9657064009816,
              "release_spin_rate": 2491.7307751389935,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 104,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.9657064009816,
                "release_spin_rate": 2491.7307751389935,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.9657,
              "release_spin_rate": 2491.7308,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
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              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.061,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.4355,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.9565,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9187,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.1269,
          "walk_factor": 1.026,
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          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.012,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_id": "656302",
            "espn_id": 34943,
            "player_name": "Dylan Cease",
            "team": "TOR",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 3,
            "espn_total_ranked": 858,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 3,
              "gp_value": 26.0,
              "gp_rank": 297,
              "gs_value": 26.0,
              "gs_rank": 45,
              "qs_value": 15.0,
              "qs_rank": 17,
              "era_value": 2.2452,
              "era_rank": 4.0,
              "w_value": 10.0,
              "w_rank": 29,
              "l_value": 5.0,
              "l_rank": 133,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 246,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 350,
              "ip_value": 156.1,
              "ip_rank": 26,
              "h_value": 97.0,
              "h_rank": 119,
              "er_value": 39.0,
              "er_rank": 150,
              "hr_value": 10.0,
              "hr_rank": 156,
              "bb_value": 65.0,
              "bb_rank": 10,
              "k_value": 221.0,
              "k_rank": 3,
              "k_per_9_value": 12.722815,
              "k_per_9_rank": 3,
              "whip_value": 1.0362,
              "whip_rank": 7.0,
              "war_value": 6.08,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9187,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9187,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.026,
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          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.885,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 8.0,
            "factor": 1.1269,
            "adjusted": 9
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 24,
      "Pitches": 89,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +2."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: True; actual quality start: False."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260907_TOR@OAK.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260907

20260907_TOR@OAK

home

Jacob Lopez

True

5.0

6.0

-1

6/7

2/1

8/1

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
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      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 23,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.817,
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      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
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      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9696,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.004,
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      "homer_factor": 0.9155,
      "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 22.1,
      "bb_percent": 11.2,
      "woba": 0.334,
      "xwoba": 0.286,
      "barrel_percent": 5.9,
      "hard_hit_percent": 30.6,
      "whiff_percent": 25.7
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 143,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
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        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
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        "sample_size": 23.0,
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        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8214,
        "prior_weight": 0.1786
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "682052",
      "report_date": "20260907",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 23,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
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          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
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            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 9.0,
            "H": 22.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 33.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 121.0,
            "Pitches": 479.0
          },
          "per_game": {
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            "ER": 1.6,
            "R": 1.8,
            "H": 4.4,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 6.6,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 24.2,
            "Pitches": 95.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.4,
            "WHIP": 1.0333,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.26667,
            "H_per_IP": 0.73333,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.3,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.1,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13333
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 51.1,
            "ER": 13.0,
            "R": 15.0,
            "H": 36.0,
            "BB": 18.0,
            "SO": 61.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 209.0,
            "Pitches": 850.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 1.3,
            "R": 1.5,
            "H": 3.6,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 6.1,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 20.9,
            "Pitches": 85.0
          },
          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.0519,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.25325,
            "H_per_IP": 0.7013,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.35065,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.18831,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11688
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 23,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 105.0,
            "ER": 55.0,
            "R": 58.0,
            "H": 101.0,
            "BB": 52.0,
            "SO": 103.0,
            "HR": 17.0,
            "BF": 466.0,
            "Pitches": 1891.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.3913,
            "R": 2.5217,
            "H": 4.3913,
            "BB": 2.2609,
            "SO": 4.4783,
            "HR": 0.7391,
            "BF": 20.2609,
            "Pitches": 82.2174
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.7143,
            "WHIP": 1.4571,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.52381,
            "H_per_IP": 0.9619,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.49524,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.98095,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1619
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 1.883,
        "predicted_H": 4.371,
        "predicted_BB": 1.954,
        "predicted_SO": 5.853,
        "predicted_HR": 0.737,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.1195,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1639
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4255,
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      "form_reliability": 0.8214,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_size": 23.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8214,
        "prior_weight": 0.1786
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      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 1.883,
          "final": 3.2092,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 4.371,
          "final": 5.0641,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.954,
          "final": 1.9736,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 8.0,
          "form": 5.853,
          "final": 6.7665,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.737,
          "final": 0.8489,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.1195,
          "final": 3.1195,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1639,
          "final": 1.1639,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
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      "pitching": {
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        "ER": 13,
        "H": 36,
        "BB": 18,
        "SO": 61,
        "HR": 6,
        "ERA": 2.2792207792207795,
        "WHIP": 1.051948051948052,
        "K9": 10.694805194805197,
        "HR9": 1.051948051948052,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 4,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-02T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.7566323255719176,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 5.0,
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          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
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        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 23.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8214,
          "prior_weight": 0.1786
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      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 5,
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          "predicted_BB": 2,
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          "predicted_HR": 1
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "682052",
      "player_name": "Jacob Lopez",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "OAK",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
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            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": -0.6667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1176,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
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              "delta": -0.6667,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
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            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 5.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
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            "delta": -0.6667,
            "percent_delta": -0.1177,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 8.0,
            "after": 8.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
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          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": -0.6667,
            "percent_delta": -0.1177,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "OAK",
        "games": 144,
        "wins": 57,
        "losses": 87,
        "win_pct": 0.3958,
        "runs_scored": 631.0,
        "runs_allowed": 819.0,
        "run_differential": -188.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.3056,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3819,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.6875,
        "offense_index": 0.9755,
        "defense_index": 0.7898,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9,
          "run_differential": -3.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.2834
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "TOR",
        "games": 144,
        "wins": 72,
        "losses": 72,
        "win_pct": 0.5,
        "runs_scored": 580.0,
        "runs_allowed": 618.0,
        "run_differential": -38.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2639,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0278,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2917,
        "offense_index": 0.8966,
        "defense_index": 1.0467,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7,
          "run_differential": 16.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0377
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.3211,
        "offense_edge": -0.0245,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.1034,
        "defense_strength": -0.2102,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0467,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.3
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.985,
        "run_prevention": 1.0205,
        "strikeout": 0.9986
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "682052",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "682052",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 393.0,
            "k_percent": 22.1,
            "bb_percent": 11.2,
            "woba": 0.334,
            "xwoba": 0.286,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 31.9,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 5.9,
            "hard_hit_percent": 30.6,
            "avg_best_speed": 71.6667,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 92.4605,
            "whiff_percent": 25.7,
            "swing_percent": 45.8
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 117.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.61,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9158,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.4639,
            "command_and_miss": -0.0636,
            "regression_edge": 1.3714,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.7143,
            "barrel_edge": 0.2667,
            "hard_hit_edge": 1.0429,
            "whiff_edge": 0.0857,
            "bb_edge": -0.5,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.28
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "682052",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 91,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 91,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 84.33938318705401,
              "release_spin_rate": 2262.340834097883,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 91,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 84.33938318705401,
                "release_spin_rate": 2262.340834097883,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 84.3394,
              "release_spin_rate": 2262.3408,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.28,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -2.0,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.358,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9696,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.004,
          "walk_factor": 1.04,
          "homer_factor": 0.9155,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.048,
          "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "682052",
            "espn_id": 42239,
            "player_name": "Jacob Lopez",
            "team": "ATH",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 143,
            "espn_total_ranked": 858,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 143,
              "gp_value": 23.0,
              "gp_rank": 344,
              "gs_value": 20.0,
              "gs_rank": 97,
              "qs_value": 4.0,
              "qs_rank": 122,
              "era_value": 4.7142,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 6.0,
              "w_rank": 102,
              "l_value": 4.0,
              "l_rank": 179,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 246,
              "hld_value": 1.0,
              "hld_rank": 267,
              "ip_value": 105.0,
              "ip_rank": 113,
              "h_value": 101.0,
              "h_rank": 113,
              "er_value": 55.0,
              "er_rank": 82,
              "hr_value": 17.0,
              "hr_rank": 65,
              "bb_value": 52.0,
              "bb_rank": 29,
              "k_value": 103.0,
              "k_rank": 92,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.828571,
              "k_per_9_rank": 21,
              "whip_value": 1.4571,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 1.26,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9696,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9696,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.04,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9155,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.004,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 5,
      "predicted_ER": 5,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 8,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 92,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260907_TOR@OAK.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260907

20260907_WAS@SD

away

Jake Irvin

True

4.2

5.2

3/8

4/2

3/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 5.5680933852140075,
      "WHIP": 1.4007782101167314,
      "IP": 85.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 18,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.759,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.733,
      "last_start_IP": 4.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.5117,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0435,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9954,
      "walk_factor": 1.026,
      "homer_factor": 1.1457,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 22.9,
      "bb_percent": 10.5,
      "woba": 0.339,
      "xwoba": 0.35,
      "barrel_percent": 11.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 45.1,
      "whiff_percent": 23.4
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 722,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
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          "per_game": {
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        },
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          "per_game": {
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          "rates": {
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            "SO_per_IP": 1.0,
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        },
        "season": {
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            "H_per_IP": 0.93385,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.46693,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.01556,
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      "blend_segments": {},
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    "model_form_blend_trace": {
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      "adaptive_parameters": {
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        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        "predicted_ER": {
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        "predicted_SO": {
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        "predicted_HR": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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          "final": 5.599,
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        "predicted_WHIP": {
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          "final": 1.4998,
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    "recent_form_analysis": {
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        "AVG": 0,
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        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
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        "trend": "stable"
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      "pitching": {
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        "ER": 30,
        "H": 42,
        "BB": 24,
        "SO": 46,
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        "K9": 9.0,
        "HR9": 1.9565217391304348,
        "games_pitched": 10,
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      "fielding": {
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        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-01T00:00:00"
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    "recent_form_boost": 1.1701169387847918,
    "stat_evolution": [
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        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "663623",
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      "team": "WAS",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
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          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
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            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
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        {
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          "step": "current_json_final",
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
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            {
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      "total_change": {
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        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
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          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
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        "win_pct": 0.4621,
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        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0621,
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      "opponent": {
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        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0559,
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          "avg_runs_scored": 3.6,
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          "run_differential": -6.0
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      "edges": {
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        "offense_edge": 0.1485,
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      "player_factors": {
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "663623",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "663623",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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            "avg_best_speed": 77.3478,
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          "league_medians": {
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          "components": {
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          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "663623",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 89,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
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              "pitches": 89,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 87.2489732816989,
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              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
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              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
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            "pitch_mix": [
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                "pitches": 89,
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                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
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                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.249,
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            "components": {
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
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          "quality_score": -0.5117,
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          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_name": "Jake Irvin",
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            "espn_total_ranked": 858,
            "metrics": {
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              "er_rank": 93,
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              "k_per_9_value": 9.140078,
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              "whip_value": 1.4007,
              "whip_rank": null,
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              "war_rank": null
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            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
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            "factor": 1.0435,
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          "predicted_H": {
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          "predicted_BB": {
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          "predicted_SO": {
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    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
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      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 93,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 5",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +5."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260907_WAS@SD.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260907

20260907_WAS@SD

home

Nick Pivetta

True

5.0

-4

3/2

0/0

7/2

Last 10 before this game (4 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.5,
      "WHIP": 1.125,
      "IP": 16.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 4,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.0,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.0,
      "last_start_IP": 3.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.5768,
      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.951,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0396,
      "walk_factor": 0.9991,
      "homer_factor": 0.9131,
      "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 36.4,
      "bb_percent": 9.1,
      "woba": 0.248,
      "xwoba": 0.212,
      "barrel_percent": 2.8,
      "hard_hit_percent": 30.6,
      "whiff_percent": 26.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 385,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 1.0
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 4.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.4444,
        "prior_weight": 0.5556
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "601713",
      "report_date": "20260907",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 4,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 4,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 16.0,
            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 8.0,
            "H": 12.0,
            "BB": 6.0,
            "SO": 24.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 66.0,
            "Pitches": 283.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.0,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 3.0,
            "BB": 1.5,
            "SO": 6.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 16.5,
            "Pitches": 70.75
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.5,
            "WHIP": 1.125,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.5,
            "H_per_IP": 0.75,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.375,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.5,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 4,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 16.0,
            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 8.0,
            "H": 12.0,
            "BB": 6.0,
            "SO": 24.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 66.0,
            "Pitches": 283.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.0,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 3.0,
            "BB": 1.5,
            "SO": 6.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 16.5,
            "Pitches": 70.75
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.5,
            "WHIP": 1.125,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.5,
            "H_per_IP": 0.75,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.375,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.5,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 4,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 16.0,
            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 8.0,
            "H": 12.0,
            "BB": 6.0,
            "SO": 24.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 66.0,
            "Pitches": 283.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.0,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 3.0,
            "BB": 1.5,
            "SO": 6.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 16.5,
            "Pitches": 70.75
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.5,
            "WHIP": 1.125,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.5,
            "H_per_IP": 0.75,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.375,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.5,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.091,
        "predicted_H": 3.657,
        "predicted_BB": 1.563,
        "predicted_SO": 4.973,
        "predicted_HR": 0.341,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.4967,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2471
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.5847,
      "form_weight": 0.4153,
      "form_reliability": 0.4444,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 4.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.4444,
        "prior_weight": 0.5556
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      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
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          "form": 4.1,
          "final": 4.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.091,
          "final": 3.2073,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 3.657,
          "final": 3.2728,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.563,
          "final": 0.649,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 4.973,
          "final": 6.1583,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 0.341,
          "final": 1.8958,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.4967,
          "final": 4.4967,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2471,
          "final": 1.2471,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "insufficient_data"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 16.0,
        "ER": 8,
        "H": 12,
        "BB": 6,
        "SO": 24,
        "HR": 0,
        "ERA": 4.5,
        "WHIP": 1.125,
        "K9": 13.5,
        "HR9": 0.0,
        "games_pitched": 4,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 4,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 4,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-04-12T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0043412315659959,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 7.0,
          "predicted_HR": 3.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 4.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.4444,
          "prior_weight": 0.5556
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "601713",
      "player_name": "Nick Pivetta",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "SD",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 3.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 3.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.3333,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.6667,
              "percent_delta": 0.1538,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            "delta": 0.6667,
            "percent_delta": 0.1539,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 7.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          }
        ],
        "summary": {
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          "biggest_boost": {
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            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "SD",
        "games": 143,
        "wins": 75,
        "losses": 68,
        "win_pct": 0.5245,
        "runs_scored": 602.0,
        "runs_allowed": 594.0,
        "run_differential": 8.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0559,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.2098,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1538,
        "offense_index": 0.9373,
        "defense_index": 1.0813,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2,
          "run_differential": -6.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0073
      },
      "opponent": {
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        "games": 145,
        "wins": 67,
        "losses": 78,
        "win_pct": 0.4621,
        "runs_scored": 748.0,
        "runs_allowed": 739.0,
        "run_differential": 9.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0621,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.1586,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.0966,
        "offense_index": 1.1485,
        "defense_index": 0.8813,
        "current_streak": "L4",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.8,
          "run_differential": 3.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0246
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0173,
        "offense_edge": -0.0627,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.1485,
        "defense_strength": 0.0813,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.1187,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9972,
        "run_prevention": 1.0148,
        "strikeout": 0.9886
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "601713",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "601713",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 57.0,
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            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.248,
            "xwoba": 0.212,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 25.0,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 2.8,
            "hard_hit_percent": 30.6,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.3947,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 92.1844,
            "whiff_percent": 26.1,
            "swing_percent": 48.8
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 117.0,
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            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.61,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9158,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 1.6558,
            "command_and_miss": 0.9807,
            "regression_edge": 1.0286,
            "xwoba_edge": 2.5,
            "barrel_edge": 0.9556,
            "hard_hit_edge": 1.0429,
            "whiff_edge": 0.1429,
            "bb_edge": 0.025,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0422
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "601713",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 79,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 79,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.12367108655921,
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              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
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                "pitches": 79,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
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                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.1237,
              "release_spin_rate": 2446.1363,
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              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
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              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
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            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0422,
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              "velocity_edge": -0.3013,
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              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.5768,
          "sample_weight": 0.45,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.951,
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          "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "601713",
            "espn_id": 36071,
            "player_name": "Nick Pivetta",
            "team": "SD",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 385,
            "espn_total_ranked": 858,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 385,
              "gp_value": 4.0,
              "gp_rank": 662,
              "gs_value": 4.0,
              "gs_rank": 232,
              "qs_value": 0.0,
              "qs_rank": 208,
              "era_value": 4.5,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 1.0,
              "w_rank": 405,
              "l_value": 2.0,
              "l_rank": 325,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 246,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 350,
              "ip_value": 16.0,
              "ip_rank": 549,
              "h_value": 12.0,
              "h_rank": 599,
              "er_value": 8.0,
              "er_rank": 574,
              "hr_value": 0.0,
              "hr_rank": 741,
              "bb_value": 6.0,
              "bb_rank": 576,
              "k_value": 24.0,
              "k_rank": 449,
              "k_per_9_value": 13.5,
              "k_per_9_rank": 22,
              "whip_value": 1.125,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.11,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9779,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9779,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9996,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9609,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0178,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 3,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 19,
      "Pitches": 84,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 4 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -4; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "MISSED_SHUTDOWN",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Model missed a shutdown outing",
      "detail": "The pitcher allowed zero earned runs after a projection of 4 ER."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260907_WAS@SD.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}